1
00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:04,400
Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast Are you Gonna Place a bet?

2
00:00:04,559 --> 00:00:13,800
Speaker 1: Or wat? What's going on? Everybody? I am Dan Martinez

3
00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:17,280
Speaker 1: and welcome back here to the Action Network series The

4
00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:24,000
Speaker 1: Experts Guide to Betting, And today we're talking props, props, props, props, props, props,

5
00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:28,840
Speaker 1: because everybody loves betting props. And who better to talk

6
00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:31,680
Speaker 1: about this with than my two guys, Sean Kerner, the

7
00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:34,879
Speaker 1: director of all the projections and analytics here at the

8
00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:38,320
Speaker 1: Action Network, and of course Chris Rabon focused here on

9
00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:40,120
Speaker 1: the NFL. How do you guys doing today?

10
00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:41,080
Speaker 2: Feeling good?

11
00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:41,279
Speaker 1: Dan?

12
00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:41,800
Speaker 2: Excited?

13
00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:44,199
Speaker 1: Talk some props? All right, that's what's up. That's what's up.

14
00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:45,800
Speaker 1: So here's the first question I have for you, And

15
00:00:45,880 --> 00:00:48,879
Speaker 1: don't take it the wrong way, but Chris, I mean, honestly,

16
00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:53,000
Speaker 1: what is it that makes you an expert when it

17
00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:54,040
Speaker 1: comes to props?

18
00:00:54,160 --> 00:00:54,319
Speaker 2: Uh?

19
00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:57,720
Speaker 3: Cause that's been forty hours a week or probably more

20
00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:01,400
Speaker 3: like sixty kind of diving into to NFL stats and

21
00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:04,600
Speaker 3: all sports stats and models. And I'm doing this even

22
00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:07,040
Speaker 3: in the off season while everyone else is just doing

23
00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:08,720
Speaker 3: a regular job. So that's kind of what I have

24
00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:11,679
Speaker 3: to offer, just that putting the time in, no for.

25
00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:13,360
Speaker 1: Sure, and Sean, what about you? I mean, I see

26
00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:17,160
Speaker 1: your modeling, your projections, your rankings. How does that equip

27
00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:18,959
Speaker 1: you for being an amazing prop better?

28
00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:21,920
Speaker 4: Well, to be good at prop betting, you have to

29
00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,920
Speaker 4: have good projections. So similar to Raybon, you know, I'm

30
00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:30,440
Speaker 4: spending dozens of hours a week projecting, analyzing, looking at

31
00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:33,120
Speaker 4: past performance, things like that. So I'm always gonna be

32
00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:35,960
Speaker 4: finding an edge. I might not win all the time,

33
00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:37,720
Speaker 4: but in the long run, I'm definitely gonna come out

34
00:01:37,720 --> 00:01:38,119
Speaker 4: on top.

35
00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:40,119
Speaker 1: All right, fair enough, And I mean, I guess we're

36
00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:42,039
Speaker 1: just trying to hit about what fifty four to fifty

37
00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:45,040
Speaker 1: five percent of the time, to be honest, But let's

38
00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:47,199
Speaker 1: get into it. I mean, for someone who is maybe

39
00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:52,000
Speaker 1: new two betting props, right, like, can an inexperience better

40
00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:56,200
Speaker 1: become sharp at props? Or you just finding the right people?

41
00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:59,360
Speaker 1: Let's say in the Action Network app to tell like,

42
00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:03,200
Speaker 1: how can someone who is green at this become better? Chris?

43
00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:07,120
Speaker 3: So, the first answer to your question is yes, and

44
00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:10,880
Speaker 3: and experience better can become good at betting props because,

45
00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:15,040
Speaker 3: unlike spreads the totals, a prop allows you to focus

46
00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:18,679
Speaker 3: in a lot more on an individual player or aspect

47
00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:20,280
Speaker 3: of the game that you're betting.

48
00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:21,519
Speaker 2: So if you're betting a spread.

49
00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:23,640
Speaker 3: Or a total, you're it's a lot more about the

50
00:02:23,639 --> 00:02:27,320
Speaker 3: interplay between the entire teams and lineups and what's gonna

51
00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:28,960
Speaker 3: and what you think is gonna happen. And that's a

52
00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:31,520
Speaker 3: lot easier for some people. It's a lot more macro.

53
00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:34,480
Speaker 3: But when you're talking about a prop, Let's say you're

54
00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:38,000
Speaker 3: just you know, a New York Giants fan and every

55
00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:40,880
Speaker 3: week you're just only betting on Daniel Jones rushing yards

56
00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:42,680
Speaker 3: or something like that, and you have a really good

57
00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,440
Speaker 3: idea of when they're gonna unleash him, when he's gonna

58
00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:47,400
Speaker 3: kind of stay in the pocket. So you can really

59
00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:50,520
Speaker 3: kind of focus in on a particular player couldn't even

60
00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:53,359
Speaker 3: be the same player every week, and you can start

61
00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:56,320
Speaker 3: out that way, and it's usually only a matter of

62
00:02:56,400 --> 00:03:00,400
Speaker 3: identifying like one trend that a book maybe has not

63
00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:04,480
Speaker 3: kind of corrected yet in their personal model. And the

64
00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:08,040
Speaker 3: biggest reason why I think is possible, Dane is because

65
00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:12,520
Speaker 3: books and I'm sure Sean could speak to this as well,

66
00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:17,440
Speaker 3: but sports books they are spending less time creating player props.

67
00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:21,360
Speaker 3: So for spreads and totals, the markets for these are massive.

68
00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:24,640
Speaker 3: I'm talking sometimes you'll get million dollar plus handles on

69
00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:27,600
Speaker 3: spreads and totals for for NFL games especially, And so

70
00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:30,519
Speaker 3: the market is going to make those lines very sharp,

71
00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:33,079
Speaker 3: and the books are gonna spend a lot more time modeling,

72
00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:36,400
Speaker 3: adjusting their models, and just projecting those numbers. For the

73
00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:39,400
Speaker 3: spread of the total for player props, it's a lot more.

74
00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:43,680
Speaker 3: You know, here's we're gonna take like the season average

75
00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:45,200
Speaker 3: and we're gonna put it out, or we're gonna let

76
00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:47,320
Speaker 3: the market decide and we're gonna put some limits on that.

77
00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:49,480
Speaker 3: So you're not taking in quite as much of a

78
00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:53,480
Speaker 3: handle as a sports book. So now you're inexperience as

79
00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:56,160
Speaker 3: a better in terms of player props, it's gonna it's

80
00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:58,040
Speaker 3: gonna kind of be equaled by the fact that the

81
00:03:58,040 --> 00:04:00,720
Speaker 3: book isn't spending a ton of time on props compared

82
00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:03,080
Speaker 3: to a lot of their other bets that they're offering.

83
00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:06,200
Speaker 3: So that's the big reason why I think, yes, even

84
00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:09,200
Speaker 3: if you're experienced, you can get an edge betting player props.

85
00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:11,000
Speaker 1: And Sean, what about you, I mean, I like a

86
00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:12,560
Speaker 1: lot of what Chris said, you know, kind of by

87
00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:16,520
Speaker 1: like isolating say the matchup or strengths or weaknesses of

88
00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:19,240
Speaker 1: certain teams that you can attack. What do you think

89
00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:22,479
Speaker 1: how can people become better at betting props?

90
00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:25,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I think Chris did a great job of

91
00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:28,599
Speaker 4: just summing up that props. There's more skillful because you're

92
00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:32,000
Speaker 4: having the factor in less variables. It's one player or

93
00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:34,800
Speaker 4: one stat so you don't have to factor in everything

94
00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:37,320
Speaker 4: going on. Right, And like you mentioned, the lines are

95
00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:40,400
Speaker 4: a bit softer, But I will say, you know, when

96
00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:43,960
Speaker 4: it comes to tailing experts, it's a bit tricky because

97
00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:46,520
Speaker 4: of that. Because if I were to tweet out that

98
00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:49,360
Speaker 4: I like the under on a receiving prop, sometimes the

99
00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:53,039
Speaker 4: market can move like five to six yards immediately. So

100
00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:56,880
Speaker 4: I would be careful tailing experts because because the lines

101
00:04:56,920 --> 00:04:59,960
Speaker 4: are softer, they move faster. But I would, you know,

102
00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:04,479
Speaker 4: follow an experts process. You know, for every problem that

103
00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:06,839
Speaker 4: I put in the app, I have a detail explanation

104
00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:08,960
Speaker 4: how I arrivee at that. So if you can kind

105
00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:12,120
Speaker 4: of absorb and learn just how the process, how an

106
00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:15,400
Speaker 4: expert processes things, and you know what they use to

107
00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:17,599
Speaker 4: come up with the play in the long run, that's

108
00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:19,440
Speaker 4: going to help you out when it comes to TAILI

109
00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:19,960
Speaker 4: an expert.

110
00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:22,200
Speaker 1: No, you know, I think it's interesting that you guys

111
00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:25,719
Speaker 1: also both reference the fact that maybe there is less

112
00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:30,960
Speaker 1: bandwidth for the actual books to hang these numbers then,

113
00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:34,240
Speaker 1: you know, say a sharp NFL line or total. You know,

114
00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:38,279
Speaker 1: it's almost like Ivy League women's college basketball. You can

115
00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:42,320
Speaker 1: find something softer because you know the books aren't paying

116
00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:45,799
Speaker 1: as much attention to it either. So maybe props definitely

117
00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:48,240
Speaker 1: are a place to go. Chris, let me ask you.

118
00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:52,440
Speaker 1: I mean, when you get to regularly betting on props,

119
00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:55,400
Speaker 1: like what's kind of one pillar or rule of thumb

120
00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:59,400
Speaker 1: or cornerstone that you really have to think about, regardless

121
00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:00,520
Speaker 1: of sport when it come surprise.

122
00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:04,240
Speaker 3: So mine far and away, Far and away for me

123
00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:09,000
Speaker 3: is implied probability and range of outcomes. You have to

124
00:06:09,080 --> 00:06:12,799
Speaker 3: understand when you're betting a prop. And Dane, you mentioned

125
00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:14,720
Speaker 3: this earlier. You said, you know, we're looking to try

126
00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:16,760
Speaker 3: to hit you know, fifty four to fifty five percent,

127
00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:20,720
Speaker 3: and so you have to understand what that means as

128
00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:23,800
Speaker 3: far as juice. So, for example, fifty four percent would

129
00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:27,440
Speaker 3: be about minus one seventeen juice. So you have to

130
00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:30,040
Speaker 3: look and say, okay, if this prop is being offered

131
00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:33,880
Speaker 3: at minus one seventeen. Now I need the outcome that

132
00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:35,760
Speaker 3: I'm betting on, whatever it might be, you know, an

133
00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:38,840
Speaker 3: over on receiving yardage and under on touchdowns, whatever it

134
00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:41,159
Speaker 3: might be. I need that to happen at least fifty

135
00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:44,360
Speaker 3: five percent of the time just to break even. And

136
00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:46,960
Speaker 3: prop juice is gonna be all over the map. Usually

137
00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:49,600
Speaker 3: when you're betting a game, you're gonna get minus one ten,

138
00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:52,239
Speaker 3: which is, you know, about fifty two and a half percent,

139
00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:54,440
Speaker 3: and then you're just trying to you know, beat that.

140
00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:56,640
Speaker 3: You need out that outcome to happen a little over

141
00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:58,680
Speaker 3: fifty percent of the time fifty three plus to win

142
00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:00,920
Speaker 3: that bet. But with props, you could have a prop

143
00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:04,040
Speaker 3: that's minus two hundred. Now you have to know what

144
00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:07,880
Speaker 3: that means. Minus two hundred is about sixty seven percent probability.

145
00:07:07,880 --> 00:07:09,640
Speaker 3: And that's where I find a lot of the edge

146
00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:13,200
Speaker 3: betting props is that you might post something like, you know,

147
00:07:14,320 --> 00:07:17,239
Speaker 3: a running back to score a touchdown at minus two hundred.

148
00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:19,239
Speaker 3: That means sixty seven percent of the time he scores

149
00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:21,880
Speaker 3: a touchdown. But you might say, hey, this guy has

150
00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:24,600
Speaker 3: scored a touchdown like nine or ten games. You know,

151
00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:27,040
Speaker 3: I think he's he's closer to eighty or ninety percent,

152
00:07:27,200 --> 00:07:29,320
Speaker 3: So there's a big edge there. Even though that minus

153
00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:32,440
Speaker 3: two hundred juice didn't look sexy, So you really have

154
00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:36,480
Speaker 3: to understand what the juice means in terms of implied probability,

155
00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:39,040
Speaker 3: and then you have to understand how that relates to

156
00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:41,840
Speaker 3: what you're actually betting and what you think the probability of.

157
00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:42,400
Speaker 2: That outcome is.

158
00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:44,160
Speaker 3: And you don't have to be exact that there's no

159
00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:46,960
Speaker 3: way to perfectly model that. But you know, when you

160
00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:49,400
Speaker 3: are modeling, you can start with, you know, looking at

161
00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:51,200
Speaker 3: just what happened in the past. You can look at

162
00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:53,520
Speaker 3: you know, what people what Sean or I are projecting

163
00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:56,040
Speaker 3: as his median projection or whatever. But you just have

164
00:07:56,080 --> 00:08:00,400
Speaker 3: to have an understanding of what that juice means probability

165
00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:02,200
Speaker 3: and how that relates to.

166
00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:05,320
Speaker 2: The outcome that you're betting on in the prop No, that's.

167
00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:07,640
Speaker 1: Fair enough, and I understand the process, Chris, but don't

168
00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:09,880
Speaker 1: ever again try to tell me that a minus two

169
00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:12,640
Speaker 1: hundred bet is sexy. But okay, we'll keep it more on.

170
00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:14,960
Speaker 2: I said it wasn't sexy. I said it wasn't sexy.

171
00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:18,440
Speaker 2: It could be profitable, it could be profitable. That's the point.

172
00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:21,240
Speaker 2: And at the end of the day, this money is sexy.

173
00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:24,200
Speaker 1: This is true profit. I like, I'll inch it up

174
00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:26,960
Speaker 1: the hill, but I just don't find it attractive. I'll

175
00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:29,040
Speaker 1: do it every now and then. This is not what

176
00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:33,040
Speaker 1: I'm jumping to do. Sean, what about you, props? What

177
00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,240
Speaker 1: are some of the kind of pillars that you really

178
00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:36,120
Speaker 1: need to think about?

179
00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:37,160
Speaker 2: Uh?

180
00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:39,560
Speaker 4: First, I want to thank Raybond for allowing me this

181
00:08:39,640 --> 00:08:45,239
Speaker 4: opportunities to say, bet the under. Get comfortable rooting the under.

182
00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:48,960
Speaker 1: Because the public over on everybody.

183
00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:52,800
Speaker 4: So who yeah, So I would much rather the route

184
00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:55,320
Speaker 4: for Jamar Chase to clear eighty two and a half

185
00:08:55,320 --> 00:08:58,640
Speaker 4: receiving yards. I'm not gonna lie, however, so is everybody else,

186
00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:01,640
Speaker 4: and books know that. That's you know, they don't take

187
00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:04,320
Speaker 4: as much action on props, but they do take a

188
00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:07,920
Speaker 4: significant or more action on the over. So it presents us,

189
00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:10,080
Speaker 4: you know, with value on the under. Most of the time,

190
00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:13,720
Speaker 4: every prop is different. But there's also another aspect in

191
00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:17,480
Speaker 4: play here that's more mathematically reasoning behind it.

192
00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:17,600
Speaker 1: Is.

193
00:09:18,360 --> 00:09:20,360
Speaker 4: You know, if a player averages sixty four and a

194
00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:22,880
Speaker 4: half receiving yards on the air, his meetia is actually

195
00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:26,559
Speaker 4: much lower for receiving yards. Specifically it could be seven

196
00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:30,199
Speaker 4: eight yards. Typically their median is about seven eight yards

197
00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:33,200
Speaker 4: lower than their season average receiving yards. So you know

198
00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:35,720
Speaker 4: you have math on your side. Just the way the

199
00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:38,880
Speaker 4: distribution works, the unders a little bit more favorable, So

200
00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:41,400
Speaker 4: you know you're betting it's the public and math is

201
00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:44,360
Speaker 4: on your side. So that's why in general you kind

202
00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:45,440
Speaker 4: of want to root for the Unders.

203
00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:47,920
Speaker 1: No fair enough, you know. And I think a prop bets.

204
00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:50,320
Speaker 1: I'm a big Wire fan, okay back in the day,

205
00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:54,839
Speaker 1: and that was a character named proposition Joe proposition. Then

206
00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:59,079
Speaker 1: I just step out do way he had never hear

207
00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:02,800
Speaker 1: it from me again, just disappear. I got a proposition

208
00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:06,480
Speaker 1: for you. And that's actually what a prop is, Like

209
00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:08,960
Speaker 1: you were saying, Chris, with the sides and the totals,

210
00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:11,520
Speaker 1: it's kind of all encompassing. You have to think about

211
00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:14,640
Speaker 1: the entire game, whereas with the prop, you only have

212
00:10:14,679 --> 00:10:18,720
Speaker 1: to think about one aspect or one matchup potentially. So

213
00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:23,199
Speaker 1: what for you is different in betting props versus betting

214
00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:24,280
Speaker 1: straight sides or totals.

215
00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:25,480
Speaker 2: Well, I think the.

216
00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:29,760
Speaker 3: Uniquely challenging thing, especially for somebody that's a little bit

217
00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:33,880
Speaker 3: newer to this is that it's like, because you know

218
00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:37,560
Speaker 3: there are so many props, I think you have to

219
00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:40,319
Speaker 3: be able to have a process to kind of whittle

220
00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:44,000
Speaker 3: down and decide what kind of props you're going to

221
00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:44,760
Speaker 3: even bet on.

222
00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:47,720
Speaker 2: Because here's the thing. You might have success.

223
00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:49,480
Speaker 3: Betting like a single prop one day and you're like, oh,

224
00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:52,720
Speaker 3: this isn't too hard, you know, getting away from resident totals.

225
00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:54,560
Speaker 3: Let me bet to the next day and for the

226
00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:57,280
Speaker 3: next day, because there are just so many possibilities, But

227
00:10:57,320 --> 00:10:59,040
Speaker 3: then you're gonna end up losing your edge. So you

228
00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:01,480
Speaker 3: always want to have a props kind of like with

229
00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:04,600
Speaker 3: Shaun aluded to, of finding your edge, of figuring out,

230
00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:07,240
Speaker 3: you know, where is the best edge for me in

231
00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:09,920
Speaker 3: this particular game. I don't like to have more than

232
00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:12,800
Speaker 3: one or two, maybe three props going in a specific

233
00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:16,040
Speaker 3: in one particular game, because then I start to run

234
00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:19,160
Speaker 3: into correlations where you know, if I have one guy's

235
00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:23,080
Speaker 3: passing yards over but another team's rushing yard player's rushing

236
00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:25,280
Speaker 3: yards under on the other team, that's kind of going

237
00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:27,920
Speaker 3: against the correlations a little bit or something like that.

238
00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:29,839
Speaker 3: So I don't want to necessarily bet that. So it's

239
00:11:29,880 --> 00:11:32,880
Speaker 3: really having a process to pick what you're looking to do.

240
00:11:33,280 --> 00:11:36,840
Speaker 3: And uh, you know, I think that a way, a

241
00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:39,720
Speaker 3: real good way to to to look at is you

242
00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:42,080
Speaker 3: there's certain stats that I look that I that I

243
00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:44,720
Speaker 3: look for more than others. So when I'm betting the NFL,

244
00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:48,120
Speaker 3: I'm always looking for edges and receiving yardage first, And

245
00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:51,040
Speaker 3: like Sean said, I'm almost always looking for unders.

246
00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:53,840
Speaker 2: So unders and receiving yards, those, to me, are.

247
00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:56,800
Speaker 3: Are usually going to be the most profitable bet more

248
00:11:56,840 --> 00:11:58,880
Speaker 3: so than like receptions, because a guy could get six

249
00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:01,400
Speaker 3: receptions and be having a bad game and have like,

250
00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:04,359
Speaker 3: you know, forty yards, but he still cleared his reception

251
00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:06,679
Speaker 3: over instead of the under. So I like looking for

252
00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:10,200
Speaker 3: unders and receiving yards. And one other thing I'll mention

253
00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:15,160
Speaker 3: here is that matchups. You know, it's challenging because a

254
00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:18,160
Speaker 3: good matchup doesn't necessarily mean an over. And this is

255
00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:20,320
Speaker 3: another reason why we like under so much. It's like

256
00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:23,520
Speaker 3: you could have a wide receiver, a stud wide receiver,

257
00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:28,120
Speaker 3: like let's say Tyreek Hill, and he had you look

258
00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:30,520
Speaker 3: at the matchup and the opposing defense, he say, oh wow,

259
00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:32,520
Speaker 3: Tyryk Hill just has a great matchup.

260
00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:32,880
Speaker 2: In this spot.

261
00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:35,680
Speaker 3: But because of that, the other defense can be thinking

262
00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:37,920
Speaker 3: the same thing, and now they're double in triple tav

263
00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:40,720
Speaker 3: and the safety over right, and they're saying anyone else

264
00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:43,680
Speaker 3: but Tyreek Hill, anyone else because the matchup is too

265
00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:46,199
Speaker 3: good on paper, so they're saying, anyone else beat us.

266
00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:48,319
Speaker 3: So then you're talking about, you know, the second, third

267
00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:51,559
Speaker 3: or fourth receiver who maybe has a A doesn't have

268
00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:53,920
Speaker 3: a good matchup, but he's getting a ton of one

269
00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:57,160
Speaker 3: on one coverage against that superior cornerback and so he

270
00:12:57,200 --> 00:13:00,640
Speaker 3: could clear his receiving yardage prop in let's say one catch.

271
00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:03,880
Speaker 3: So that's something that I think is uniquely challenging about

272
00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:05,840
Speaker 3: the NFL and that you really have to kind of

273
00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:09,720
Speaker 3: think about and look at the range of outcomes and say, Okay,

274
00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:11,920
Speaker 3: if the defense covers them like this, this is the

275
00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:13,120
Speaker 3: chance he goes over its prop.

276
00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:14,679
Speaker 2: If they don't, this is what could happen.

277
00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:16,360
Speaker 3: And you just want to make sure and kind of

278
00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:19,160
Speaker 3: gut check and vet your bets to make sure that

279
00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:22,600
Speaker 3: it could cash in a variety of gamescript situations.

280
00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:23,480
Speaker 2: Is the way I'll put it.

281
00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:25,920
Speaker 1: No, absolutely, you know I think that too, and I

282
00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:28,280
Speaker 1: spend a lot of time back in say the wide

283
00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:31,800
Speaker 1: receiver two or three on a team. Alexander Madison has

284
00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:35,640
Speaker 1: gotten me paid time after time after time. Right, Tony

285
00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:39,640
Speaker 1: Pollard gets me paid time after time after time. Some

286
00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:43,160
Speaker 1: of these running quarterbacks, they'll still have their rushing props,

287
00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:45,840
Speaker 1: be like thirteen and a half yards. You mentioned Daniel

288
00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:49,280
Speaker 1: Jones earlier before, but in general you mentioned it, Chris,

289
00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:52,640
Speaker 1: it's like a cheesecake factory menu, trying to sift them

290
00:13:52,880 --> 00:13:55,800
Speaker 1: all of the damn pop right, So, Sean, tell me

291
00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:58,719
Speaker 1: how do you sift through the props onlike, say, the

292
00:13:58,760 --> 00:13:59,600
Speaker 1: sides and the totals.

293
00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:03,440
Speaker 4: Well, we do have this tool on Action Labs that

294
00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:07,600
Speaker 4: actually compares our projections to every single player prop being offered,

295
00:14:07,640 --> 00:14:11,839
Speaker 4: and it conveniently shows you which ones we show the

296
00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:13,880
Speaker 4: most value on. So we make it very easy to

297
00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:14,200
Speaker 4: do that.

298
00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:17,079
Speaker 1: Okay, let me ask you something else about this, because

299
00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:21,640
Speaker 1: I've always wondered, could you translate all of your kind

300
00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:26,320
Speaker 1: of research and analysis and thoughts from the DFS world

301
00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:30,000
Speaker 1: into props? And if so, how right? Like is it

302
00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:32,400
Speaker 1: just kind of the same data You're just you know,

303
00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:34,680
Speaker 1: making it tell a different story. I know you're very

304
00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:37,360
Speaker 1: versed in this, Sean, So, like, what about people who

305
00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:40,440
Speaker 1: are really in that DFS world, Could they be really

306
00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:42,280
Speaker 1: effective at betting props? Oh?

307
00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:46,000
Speaker 4: Absolutely, because, like Chris mentioned, it's all about matchups, you

308
00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:48,880
Speaker 4: know how players can perform. And it's kind of funny

309
00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:51,000
Speaker 4: because I see a lot of DFS people sort of

310
00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:55,080
Speaker 4: referencing props like through the Holy Grail, but reality, those

311
00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:57,120
Speaker 4: are things they could be as well, So instead of

312
00:14:57,160 --> 00:15:00,600
Speaker 4: referencing them as something I use for DFS, if you're

313
00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:03,960
Speaker 4: already doing projections and you're playing DFS, you should also

314
00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:06,240
Speaker 4: take a stab at player props because they're very beatable.

315
00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:09,400
Speaker 4: So if you're already grinding through the matchups, you know,

316
00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:13,280
Speaker 4: thinking about just like rostership percentages where the public's gonna be,

317
00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:15,680
Speaker 4: you're already ahead of the game when it comes to

318
00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:18,000
Speaker 4: player props, so you should be betting on those as well.

319
00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:20,880
Speaker 1: All right, fair enough, let me ask you this. You know,

320
00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:23,480
Speaker 1: we're in a time of year right now where there

321
00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:25,360
Speaker 1: are no games at least in the NFL on a

322
00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:27,840
Speaker 1: week to week basis, right, and we have the off

323
00:15:27,920 --> 00:15:30,400
Speaker 1: season in a lot of sports. When you're in that time,

324
00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:34,560
Speaker 1: what do you do to try to potentially prepare for

325
00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:36,760
Speaker 1: some of the props you may bet down the road

326
00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:37,960
Speaker 1: once we get back in the season.

327
00:15:38,040 --> 00:15:41,080
Speaker 3: Chris, So, I think a good thing to do is

328
00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:43,920
Speaker 3: just start to understand baseline values.

329
00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:45,960
Speaker 2: So, you know, when I make.

330
00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:49,040
Speaker 3: Projections, when Sean makes projections, what we're really doing is

331
00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:52,000
Speaker 3: we're starting with some sort of baseline for each team

332
00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:54,280
Speaker 3: and player against just what they would do against the

333
00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:56,800
Speaker 3: weak average opponent, and then we're kind of adjusting that

334
00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:58,920
Speaker 3: for the individual matchup.

335
00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:00,520
Speaker 2: Each week during the season.

336
00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:05,240
Speaker 3: So you know, just kind of understanding, Okay, what is

337
00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:06,240
Speaker 3: you know, what.

338
00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:09,520
Speaker 2: Is Tyreek Hill expected to average per game receiving?

339
00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:11,680
Speaker 3: You know, you can look at our projections which we

340
00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:14,160
Speaker 3: we put out, you can just take, like for a

341
00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:16,080
Speaker 3: lot of players you have season long props, you can

342
00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:19,160
Speaker 3: just divide those by seventeen and get a per game average.

343
00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:22,960
Speaker 3: So just kind of understanding the different baselines. I also

344
00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:25,400
Speaker 3: just love to kind of go back into players game

345
00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:27,640
Speaker 3: logs in the offseason and and look at them and

346
00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:30,160
Speaker 3: get really familiar. And then another thing I think is

347
00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:33,080
Speaker 3: really helpful for people that are getting ready to bet

348
00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:36,240
Speaker 3: a lot of props is you know, offensive lines, you know,

349
00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:42,040
Speaker 3: have an idea of each team's offensive line strengths and weaknesses. Defenses, schemes.

350
00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:44,240
Speaker 3: Do they play zone, do they play man? Do they

351
00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:47,360
Speaker 3: have good a cornerback that can shut down a specific

352
00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:49,760
Speaker 3: you know, receiver or like the number one, or does

353
00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:52,400
Speaker 3: he shut down a specific side of the field.

354
00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:53,440
Speaker 1: Things like that.

355
00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:56,600
Speaker 3: Coaching philosophies do does a certain team come out throwing

356
00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:59,400
Speaker 3: against you know, better offenses, but then you know, kind

357
00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:01,200
Speaker 3: of goes into a sh against teams they think they

358
00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:02,600
Speaker 3: can beat, like the Seahawks used to do.

359
00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:05,840
Speaker 2: So I think it's kind of helpful.

360
00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:08,000
Speaker 3: To have these things and have some prior knowledge of

361
00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:11,280
Speaker 3: those things, because what's gonna happen is once once week

362
00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:14,880
Speaker 3: one starts, you have some kind of background to where

363
00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,520
Speaker 3: you're not overreacting early in the season, because I see

364
00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:20,320
Speaker 3: even a lot of sharp professional betters.

365
00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:22,960
Speaker 2: They struggle to bet before like week five or so

366
00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:25,680
Speaker 2: because they haven't been able to get enough new data

367
00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:26,280
Speaker 2: in their.

368
00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:29,119
Speaker 3: Model and so and so I think what you have

369
00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:30,800
Speaker 3: to do at that point in the season, you're still

370
00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:33,040
Speaker 3: using you know, you're kind of some of your your

371
00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:35,600
Speaker 3: season long projections and your priors that take into account

372
00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:38,159
Speaker 3: last year's data, but also just understanding some of the

373
00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:40,720
Speaker 3: things that can't be measured quite as well, like offensive

374
00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:44,320
Speaker 3: lines and coaching and defensive strengths and schemes and things.

375
00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:46,680
Speaker 3: That's gonna give you a big leg up early in

376
00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:49,240
Speaker 3: the season because guess what, the books aren't really putting

377
00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:52,639
Speaker 3: that information into play either. Again, they're just kind of

378
00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:55,199
Speaker 3: going off some basic, you know, season long number that

379
00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:57,080
Speaker 3: then they're dividing to get a per game average and

380
00:17:57,119 --> 00:17:58,800
Speaker 3: they're letting the market kind of take it from there.

381
00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:01,600
Speaker 3: So if you can get early on those but because

382
00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:03,280
Speaker 3: you have some of the background nowledge and you kind

383
00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:06,480
Speaker 3: of just have a feel for what looks right early

384
00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:09,320
Speaker 3: in the season, you're gonna have a big edge even

385
00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:12,080
Speaker 3: over some of the better better in the industry.

386
00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:14,320
Speaker 1: What about you, Sean, I mean, you know, I think

387
00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:17,000
Speaker 1: about things like player movement. I think about things like

388
00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:20,480
Speaker 1: coaching movement, but I also think about the evolution of

389
00:18:20,560 --> 00:18:23,480
Speaker 1: the game. We're talking a lot about football that's evolving

390
00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:26,320
Speaker 1: into a more heavy passing league, and I wonder how

391
00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:29,320
Speaker 1: that will be represented and say wide receiver props. But

392
00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:32,000
Speaker 1: you can see the same thing in the NBA. As

393
00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:35,240
Speaker 1: we've changed the geometry and math of the NBA, we

394
00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:39,280
Speaker 1: see teams pulling their goalie far earlier. In the NHL,

395
00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:42,119
Speaker 1: we see the evolution to the three true outcomes in

396
00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:45,600
Speaker 1: baseball and the impact potentially on strikeout props or home

397
00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,600
Speaker 1: run props in Major League Baseball. What do you do

398
00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:51,680
Speaker 1: in the offseason to kind of keep up and get

399
00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:53,600
Speaker 1: ahead of what's going on in the prop world.

400
00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:56,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, no, that's that's a really good point. Chris can

401
00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:59,360
Speaker 4: definitely speak to that. He has a really good chart

402
00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:02,200
Speaker 4: that he looks on Pro Football Reference that shows league

403
00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:04,520
Speaker 4: wide trends, right, and you can kind of spot those.

404
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:07,960
Speaker 4: So yeah, we're definitely factoring those in. But I agree

405
00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:10,960
Speaker 4: with Raybond completely just going into the season. It's all

406
00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:14,600
Speaker 4: about setting up these priors that we update in season.

407
00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:18,000
Speaker 4: So if you get ahead of the curve in week one, again,

408
00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:20,800
Speaker 4: piggyback and Raybond. When it comes to offensive line, the

409
00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:24,919
Speaker 4: Bengals have the most improved offensive line heading into the season,

410
00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:27,199
Speaker 4: So I'll be looking at potentially Joe Mixon to go

411
00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:29,320
Speaker 4: over as rushing prop week one. You know, I'll look

412
00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:32,840
Speaker 4: for angles like that, Scheme changes, the vikings are going

413
00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:35,040
Speaker 4: to be more of a ram.

414
00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:36,120
Speaker 2: Based past heavy say.

415
00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:39,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I'm just saying not that all this has

416
00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:41,080
Speaker 4: to be true, but you have to have an inkling

417
00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:44,920
Speaker 4: in your head that they're going to be trying this out.

418
00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:47,719
Speaker 4: So going into week one, it's all about setting up

419
00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:51,440
Speaker 4: your priors and then adjusting accordingly once we get that data.

420
00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:53,920
Speaker 4: And I agree that usually people are too quick to

421
00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,399
Speaker 4: adjust just based on one week of data. So it's about,

422
00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:58,560
Speaker 4: you know, it's about finding that balance on how much

423
00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:00,800
Speaker 4: you want to stick with your priors throughout the season.

424
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:02,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, and let me just add, let me just add

425
00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:06,880
Speaker 3: before before we move on, Daan, that another great thing

426
00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:11,679
Speaker 3: for people to do. Familiarize yourself with the volatility of

427
00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:14,720
Speaker 3: each stat that they're going to offer a prop for.

428
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:18,639
Speaker 3: For example, throughout the season, you will rarely see Sean

429
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:23,159
Speaker 3: or myself bet on passing yardage props. The reason is

430
00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:27,760
Speaker 3: because passing yardage week to week is very stable. So

431
00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:31,800
Speaker 3: like if you just looked at different quarterbacks, a lot

432
00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 3: of their passing yardage totals aren't going to fall too

433
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:39,479
Speaker 3: far from their average season average, right. But with receiving yardage,

434
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:41,800
Speaker 3: on the other hand, there's gonna be these huge spikes

435
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,159
Speaker 3: and peaks and valleys and things like that. Touchdowns are

436
00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:48,000
Speaker 3: the most volatile. It's either it's binary. You're either getting

437
00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:50,040
Speaker 3: zero or one, or you know, you could get two

438
00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:52,320
Speaker 3: or three, but it's binary. There's nothing in you know,

439
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:54,360
Speaker 3: yardage is a little more. You know, you can get

440
00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:59,160
Speaker 3: sixty one or sixty two. But things like that are

441
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,159
Speaker 3: important to kind of understand coming into the season. And

442
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,280
Speaker 3: that's why earlier I said, you know, I'm looking at

443
00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:07,840
Speaker 3: receiving yardage first, then the receptions, then I'll go to

444
00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:10,800
Speaker 3: rushing yards things like that, because you have to kind

445
00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:13,080
Speaker 3: of know where you can even find an edge. You

446
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,359
Speaker 3: have to know which stats are going to kind of

447
00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,080
Speaker 3: jump up and down from week to week to where

448
00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:20,240
Speaker 3: in a good matchup a stat could jump or in

449
00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:22,399
Speaker 3: a bad one it could fall. Whereas quarterbacks, you know,

450
00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:25,040
Speaker 3: a quarterback could have a tough matchup and that could

451
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:27,679
Speaker 3: cause them to go way over their passing yards because

452
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:29,919
Speaker 3: they're in comeback mode or something like that. So the

453
00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:31,879
Speaker 3: touchdowns might not be there, but the yardage might. So

454
00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:34,399
Speaker 3: you have to kind of understand the different stats and

455
00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:38,040
Speaker 3: their volatilities. And I usually do this by there's different

456
00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:39,720
Speaker 3: metrics you can use, but you can just take like

457
00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 3: a standard deviation of each stat you know, from week

458
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:44,720
Speaker 3: to week for a bunch of the top players and.

459
00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 2: Kind of get an idea of it.

460
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 3: But the main point is that there are differences, so

461
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:52,520
Speaker 3: you can't put the same amount of predictive value into

462
00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:54,960
Speaker 3: the data for let's say, receiving yards as you do

463
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:57,400
Speaker 3: for passing yards. Receiving yards is a lot more volatile,

464
00:21:57,440 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 3: but that gives us the edge when vetting them.

465
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:01,720
Speaker 1: Now, I'm glad you said that, because I was about

466
00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:04,719
Speaker 1: to push back on you when it comes to passing yards.

467
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:09,159
Speaker 1: But that's more in the live prop betting aspect, because

468
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:12,880
Speaker 1: I actually think game flow tells a beautiful tae when

469
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:14,880
Speaker 1: it comes to some of the live props. And we'll

470
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:17,119
Speaker 1: get into that a little bit later on. This is

471
00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 1: the experts Guide to betting here on the Action Network.

472
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 1: I'm Dan Martinez, the spitting statistician. We're talking with Chris

473
00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 1: Raybond and of course Sean Kerner as well. Sean, what

474
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:28,679
Speaker 1: do you do when we get into the kind of

475
00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:31,879
Speaker 1: day to day aspect? You know, I'm thinking about things

476
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 1: like injuries. If this wide out is down, who else

477
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:38,679
Speaker 1: absorbs some of that target share? I'm potentially thinking about

478
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:42,880
Speaker 1: weather in Major League Baseball. I'm thinking about bullpen availability

479
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 1: for goodness sakes, what are the things you're thinking about?

480
00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 1: Kind of on a day to day or week to

481
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:49,440
Speaker 1: week basis when it comes to betting props.

482
00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I mean for NFL specifically, earlier in the week,

483
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,679
Speaker 4: I'm just crunching numbers. I'm gathering data. I'm setting up

484
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 4: my models because you know, a lot of the the

485
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:02,880
Speaker 4: NFL is about injury reports and weather and things like that,

486
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:06,320
Speaker 4: and we don't really get clarity by Friday or Saturday.

487
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:09,159
Speaker 4: So I'm just setting up my models, getting the data,

488
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:12,440
Speaker 4: you know, crunching numbers, and then once we have more

489
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:16,399
Speaker 4: clarity come Friday or Saturday with injury reports, weather, that's

490
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:18,919
Speaker 4: usually when I'm locking in my bets. So I'm usually

491
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 4: locking my bets once we have more information. So usually

492
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 4: my day to day or week to week process for

493
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:28,919
Speaker 4: NFL is early week I'm grinding, and then Friday and Saturday,

494
00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 4: I'm actually locking in bets.

495
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 1: All right, fair enough? Oh to that there's a there's

496
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:37,119
Speaker 1: a little disclaimer though. What about week eighteen of the NFL?

497
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:39,360
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, my favorite. Do you ever look at say, oh,

498
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:44,159
Speaker 1: I don't know contract incentives for things like that, because

499
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,920
Speaker 1: everybody in the locker room is talking about it all

500
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:49,640
Speaker 1: week long. We gotta get this guy his seventy four

501
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 1: yards for an extra one point five million. Do things

502
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:57,400
Speaker 1: like that actually factor in? Are you just thinking straight statistics? No?

503
00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:00,360
Speaker 4: No, we we always talk to them. That's our favorite

504
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 4: Ray and I. We always go over the contract, incentives, records,

505
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 4: personal milestones. We absolutely factor that in. There's definitely that

506
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 4: human element. We're not just robots here just crunching numbers.

507
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 4: There's the human aspect and things like incentives, milestones and

508
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 4: records were absolutely factoring that in.

509
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 1: What about what about you? Chris? You know, it's it's

510
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 1: it's part science and part art form, right, you know,

511
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 1: And that's what kind of Sean is saying as well,

512
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:30,200
Speaker 1: where do you fall on that continuum as it were?

513
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:32,400
Speaker 1: You know, because the best players know how to kind

514
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:35,840
Speaker 1: of mix all those sources of data, right, Yeah?

515
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:36,439
Speaker 2: Absolutely?

516
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 3: I think for me and when I'm and this goes

517
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 3: for any type of bet I'm making, it's not just props,

518
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 3: but I want the I want the data to show

519
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:47,200
Speaker 3: me an edge. I want my model to show me

520
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,359
Speaker 3: an edge. But then I gut check it and I

521
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 3: don't want to have anything that kind of tells me,

522
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,399
Speaker 3: you know, No, Like for example, there was times, you

523
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 3: know a couple of years ago when the Titans and

524
00:24:57,480 --> 00:24:59,399
Speaker 3: Seawan could speak to this too. But when the Titans

525
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 3: were just starting get into and hit their stride with

526
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,919
Speaker 3: Ryan Tannehill and they still had Arthur Smith there, it

527
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:08,879
Speaker 3: seemed like every week kind of the model was suggesting,

528
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:11,440
Speaker 3: you know, to go kind of under with the Titans.

529
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 3: But then Shawn and I would say, like the Titans

530
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:15,880
Speaker 3: are like outperforming their expectations every week. Like I don't

531
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 3: want to be the guy better. I don't want to

532
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 3: be a guy betting against Darien ro you know. So,

533
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 3: so it's just got like, listen, you only have to

534
00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 3: make one bet to profit, right, you could go one

535
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:28,919
Speaker 3: and oh every time you bet and and that and

536
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:32,360
Speaker 3: you profit. So I think the key for me is

537
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 3: kind of I you know, if there's anything that's telling

538
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,120
Speaker 3: me to get off of bet, even if my numbers

539
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:40,119
Speaker 3: say it might be the right bet. If there's anything saying, hey,

540
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:42,399
Speaker 3: this might there's something in your numbers even that you

541
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 3: might have not caught, then I'm not going to bet

542
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:48,720
Speaker 3: it because that's your advantage just a better it's choosing

543
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:52,879
Speaker 3: like what you bet and what you don't. So I

544
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 3: think a big thing for me is just kind of

545
00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 3: again whittling down to what I really want to bet.

546
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:01,160
Speaker 3: You know, Sean already mentioned the Action Network, the Action

547
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 3: Labs props tool, which you know, if you're a casual

548
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 3: better it's literally loaded with our projections and you could

549
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 3: see a percentage edge for each bet and you can

550
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:12,720
Speaker 3: sort it in order. You can sorter it, sort it

551
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 3: and filter it by stat and so even and I

552
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 3: look at that because even though I'm feeding the projections

553
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:19,439
Speaker 3: into it, I'm one of the people like, it's just

554
00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 3: an easy way for me to now have a top.

555
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 2: Down view of, you know, what's going on.

556
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 3: And the final thing I'll say is that for me,

557
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 3: you know, just throughout the week as I'm getting ready

558
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:30,880
Speaker 3: to kind of make these best the things I'm really

559
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 3: focused on for NFL in particular, but this kind of

560
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:38,480
Speaker 3: goes for every sport is the usage, right, So for NFL,

561
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,719
Speaker 3: I'm looking at snap rates, recent snap rates, especially how

562
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:43,639
Speaker 3: will that snap rate change for a running back in

563
00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:46,120
Speaker 3: you know, if we expect if you had like five,

564
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:48,360
Speaker 3: four or five games in the past with good game

565
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:50,119
Speaker 3: scripts and now we expect it to be bad. You know,

566
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 3: Damien Harris comes to mind in New England. You know

567
00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:54,359
Speaker 3: he might not get as many snaps in a game,

568
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:56,960
Speaker 3: they have to throw more. And then for receivers, it's

569
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 3: routes run, which is kind of just snaps, but it's

570
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,280
Speaker 3: percentage of routes run per drop back. You know, there

571
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 3: are some tight ends that they're in the game, you know,

572
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:06,879
Speaker 3: more for run blocking or pass blocking even or running

573
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 3: backs that they're they're pass blocking a lot more than

574
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:10,800
Speaker 3: they're running a route, So you have to kind of

575
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 3: be aware of things like that. And for those third

576
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 3: and fourth receivers especially, you know, there's a big difference

577
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 3: between a third receiver running a route on ninety percent

578
00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:21,119
Speaker 3: of the dropbacks and a third receiver running the route

579
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 3: on like forty or fifty percent of the dropback. So

580
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 3: that's something that I'm kind of hinkering and projecting throughout

581
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 3: the week. That changes throughout the week because a human

582
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:32,560
Speaker 3: is changing it. A coach is deciding, you know, how

583
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:34,880
Speaker 3: many snaps a player is gonna play, And that's opposed

584
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 3: to like efficiency, where you know, the team is trying

585
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:40,320
Speaker 3: to stop a receiver from getting yards on every play.

586
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:42,639
Speaker 3: So that you know, that's something that I'm gonna let

587
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 3: the model take more, you know, take care of a

588
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,680
Speaker 3: little bit more. But I'm really kind of honing in

589
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 3: and projecting usage. And I think if you're looking to

590
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:52,680
Speaker 3: make a prop bet, you should at least be like,

591
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:54,320
Speaker 3: if you're betting on a running back, you should at

592
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 3: least have an understanding of okay, like it's just snap

593
00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:58,720
Speaker 3: rate gonna change what it was at the last few weeks.

594
00:27:58,760 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 2: Is it going to change it all?

595
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 3: If if it's a receiver, is his you know, routes

596
00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 3: run gonna change in any major way because of any

597
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,120
Speaker 3: injuries or or just a matchup or whatever. So those

598
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:08,840
Speaker 3: are two things that I think are really important.

599
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:11,639
Speaker 1: No, absolutely, And then you also talked about the tools that,

600
00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:16,439
Speaker 1: again you can find in the Action Network app. I

601
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:20,440
Speaker 1: can't express this enough. Download the Action Network app, subscribe

602
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:23,320
Speaker 1: to the Action Network YouTube channel, unless, of course, you

603
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:26,119
Speaker 1: are allergic to money. But we talked about it a

604
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:29,439
Speaker 1: little bit before the idea of betting props live. Let

605
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:31,919
Speaker 1: me ask you, Sean, like, what do you do betting

606
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:34,920
Speaker 1: props live? I refer to game flow, right, So at halftime,

607
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:37,480
Speaker 1: if a team is down by two touchdowns, I'm sorry, Chris,

608
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 1: but I am looking at that quarterback's passing yards because

609
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 1: with the prevent defense, they're gonna get six seven yards

610
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 1: every time. I may also be looking at that quarterbacks

611
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:50,120
Speaker 1: live interception prop or the rushing yards on a team

612
00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 1: that is up. So, Sean, why don't you tell me

613
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 1: what are some of the things you do look for

614
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:57,440
Speaker 1: when betting props live in game? Yeah?

615
00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:59,760
Speaker 4: I mean that's why I love live player props because

616
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 4: there's dynamics. So yeah, it's all about game flow. If

617
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 4: a team is trailing by a lot, you know, their

618
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 4: pass rates going to go up. If they're winning by

619
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 4: a lot, their rush rates going to go up, and

620
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 4: in turn that could limit the plays for the other team.

621
00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 4: But we're actually I'm happy to announce that we're building

622
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 4: a model for this where we're hoping to kind of

623
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 4: track these in game with live projections that factor in

624
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:26,280
Speaker 4: all this data so that you can have more you know,

625
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 4: sound numbers to go with it. But these are these

626
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:32,160
Speaker 4: are things that I do. You know, I don't want

627
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:34,880
Speaker 4: to say use my gut, but use my intuition during

628
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:36,440
Speaker 4: a game, because like you said, it's all about the

629
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:38,479
Speaker 4: game flow. So if you're watching the game, you know

630
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:42,480
Speaker 4: the teams very well, you can definitely find some opportunities

631
00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 4: on these.

632
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I mean I would even say the same

633
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 1: thing about something like the NBA. Right, you know, you

634
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 1: see a guy who's supposed to have you know, twenty

635
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 1: three points and he's got seven in the first half,

636
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 1: Maybe that russion will happen in the second half back

637
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 1: in a positive way. But Chris, what are some of

638
00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 1: the things you think about live in game? It comes

639
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 1: to props. Whether it's football or other sports.

640
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:05,520
Speaker 3: It's always the game the game script, which is how

641
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 3: the game is going to play out. And I think

642
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:10,720
Speaker 3: it's particularly important in football because the average team in

643
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:14,240
Speaker 3: football averages twenty three or twenty four points, right, So

644
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 3: if one team takes a seven to nothing lead, that's

645
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 3: that's accounting for like thirty percent of their scoring total

646
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 3: or fifteen percent of the game's points just.

647
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 2: On that one play.

648
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 3: And that and when you're looking for small edges of

649
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:32,800
Speaker 3: these props, that can have a massive effect. So yeah,

650
00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 3: I mentioned rushing yardage props are a little tougher. Passing

651
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:37,840
Speaker 3: yardge props are a little tougher to be pregame, But

652
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 3: as you pointed out, Dane, in game, that's where you

653
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 3: can attack those because, like I said, if you have

654
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 3: a Patriots team, for example, that gets down, you know,

655
00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 3: early seven to nothing. They might not go away from

656
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 3: Damien Harris right away, but at some point in that game,

657
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 3: you know they might have to go away from Davy

658
00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:59,479
Speaker 3: and Harris more than they would if they got that

659
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 3: seven lead, because there's just a larger probability that they

660
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 3: have a lead longer into the game with a lead

661
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 3: early than they do if it's it's vice versa. And

662
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 3: that's even more true if, for example, a team one

663
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 3: team starts, gets the ball, goes like three and out,

664
00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:18,960
Speaker 3: and then the other team comes down and scores, because

665
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 3: now that same team is gonna also get the ball

666
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:24,840
Speaker 3: to start the second half. So now you have a

667
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:28,360
Speaker 3: big opportunity for a huge swing based on what took

668
00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 3: place on those first two drives of the game, because

669
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:32,720
Speaker 3: not only do you know, do you know that that

670
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:35,680
Speaker 3: team's gonna you know that has an early lead, and

671
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 3: you also know that that team is likely to get

672
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 3: perhaps an extra possession with the lead start in the

673
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 3: second half. So things like that when you're looking for

674
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 3: just small edges, those are massive. So it's it's all

675
00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 3: game script and just you know, is a team gonna

676
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 3: run more or pass more than we thought in the pregame,

677
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:55,720
Speaker 3: which those pregame projections are based a lot more. You know,

678
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:58,320
Speaker 3: even though you're adjusting for matchup, they're still gonna kind

679
00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:01,479
Speaker 3: of adhere to season average is a lot more than

680
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:04,280
Speaker 3: they would once the game actually starts.

681
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 2: You know.

682
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 1: And I think that's especially clear even when there's role

683
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 1: clarity in a backfield, right, Like if you know for

684
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 1: sure that one guy is kind of the early down

685
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 1: in between the tackles back, and then there's this other

686
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:19,680
Speaker 1: third down PPR kind of back. When you get into

687
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:21,680
Speaker 1: a solid game flow where you know one way or

688
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:24,120
Speaker 1: the other you talked about snap counts before you know

689
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 1: you're gonna see that get heavily weighted one way or

690
00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 1: the other. Well, let me get you out of here

691
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:31,440
Speaker 1: on this, okay, Because I know you guys are all

692
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:34,240
Speaker 1: about your numbers, all about the data, but then you

693
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 1: also have to put a little bit of gut feel.

694
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 1: I gotta tell you the truth, Chris. This is something

695
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 1: I do every Monday night. I look at my fantasy opponents,

696
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 1: and I look at who they still have left to go,

697
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:48,800
Speaker 1: and I bet the overs on all of their props

698
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:51,160
Speaker 1: as an emotional edge. Right, So if they have a

699
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:53,640
Speaker 1: big old game I at least hit my props if not,

700
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 1: I win my fantasy matchup. How crazy is that? I

701
00:32:58,200 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 1: like that?

702
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, you gotta you gotta save yourself

703
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 3: from the psychological turmoil of the tilt.

704
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 1: There you go, absolutely, But what is it for you? Like,

705
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:10,160
Speaker 1: what's maybe the greatest joy or the biggest rush you've

706
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 1: had betting props?

707
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 3: I mean, so I went on an eighteen in one

708
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 3: heater this summer?

709
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:17,479
Speaker 2: Whoa so like?

710
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 1: For me? I don't.

711
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 3: And the reason I would give that is the answer

712
00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:23,400
Speaker 3: is because I know how improbable that is. Even if

713
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 3: I am a really good better like, even if I

714
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 3: am great, the probability of that ever happening again in

715
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 3: my life would be low. But like objectively speaking, if

716
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:35,520
Speaker 3: we're talking just like the technical aspect of betting a prop,

717
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:39,160
Speaker 3: I would say betting on an over that cash is

718
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 3: in like the first quarter or like the first few

719
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 3: minutes of the game to where because the best feeling

720
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:46,880
Speaker 3: of a game is when you've already won your bet

721
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:48,720
Speaker 3: and like you just get to watch the rest of

722
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 3: the game sweats.

723
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:52,800
Speaker 1: And I push back on you for one second. The

724
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 1: worst prop bet beat I have ever had, my friend,

725
00:33:57,360 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 1: was a bet that was won already in the Super Bowl,

726
00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 1: and it was Patrick Mahomes's rushing yards, so I think

727
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 1: was like thirty or thirty one and a half was

728
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:10,799
Speaker 1: at like forty seven, okay, But then in the last

729
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:14,319
Speaker 1: drive to kill clock, he decides to literally purposely run

730
00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 1: backwards like seven to ten yards, not once, but twice

731
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 1: to kill clock at the end of the Super Bowl.

732
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 1: So I thought I had that one one. I was

733
00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 1: celebrating myself. So, Chris, while I get it it's great

734
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:30,399
Speaker 1: to have someone go over in the first quarter, you're

735
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 1: not always home free, right, Chris.

736
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:35,400
Speaker 3: You're not in And I mean, I know we're not

737
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:37,839
Speaker 3: talking about that anymore, but I would say, like, when

738
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:42,440
Speaker 3: you're betting quarterback rushing yard props, a big thing meal downne.

739
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:43,319
Speaker 2: Is the kneel down.

740
00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:46,840
Speaker 3: And that goes back into game script because let's say

741
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:50,840
Speaker 3: a quarterback averages like let's let's take a regular pocket passing.

742
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:54,479
Speaker 3: He might average like five rushing yards per game, right,

743
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,160
Speaker 3: and so the book will set it the line at

744
00:34:57,200 --> 00:34:58,799
Speaker 3: five and a half. You know, is he gonna get

745
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 3: more than five or is he gonna get you know, five?

746
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:04,840
Speaker 3: One scramble gets you six, right, right, So it's like

747
00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:06,920
Speaker 3: now you have to look at it and say, okay,

748
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 3: and now this is somewhere where you could kind of

749
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 3: use the spread, and especially to kind of help you

750
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:14,840
Speaker 3: if if the team is a ten point favorite, you

751
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:17,720
Speaker 3: probably don't want to bit the over on a pocket

752
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:21,560
Speaker 3: passer's rushing yards because there's a likelihood that you're gonna

753
00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:24,680
Speaker 3: get the three kneel downs at the end of the game. Now,

754
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:27,879
Speaker 3: sometimes it's it's so crazy that the quarterback is out

755
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:29,319
Speaker 3: of the game by then, he's just sitting on the

756
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:31,200
Speaker 3: bench chilling, and the backup comes.

757
00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 2: In to take the neel downs.

758
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 3: But there are a lot of situations where and I've

759
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:37,319
Speaker 3: tracked this and you can you can find kneel down

760
00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 3: information on Pro Football Reference.

761
00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 2: And stat head.

762
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,840
Speaker 3: But you really don't want to be betting the over

763
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:45,920
Speaker 3: on rushing yards for those small numbers.

764
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:48,399
Speaker 2: They look so easy, they look so easy to hit.

765
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:52,840
Speaker 3: So, for example, by tracking meel downs like neils and yardage,

766
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:55,160
Speaker 3: there's things you can learn even doing that, Like I

767
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,640
Speaker 3: learned that Kyler Murray tends to go back more than

768
00:35:57,719 --> 00:36:00,319
Speaker 3: the average quarterback when he takes a kneel down. Like

769
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:02,719
Speaker 3: even something like that is something that you could keep

770
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 3: in mind as your betty.

771
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 2: But that just shows how you could be the.

772
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:09,600
Speaker 3: Guy that just bets quarterback rushing props based on kneel down.

773
00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 3: So anytime that you think that a team's gonna win

774
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 3: a game, you have some pocket pass or like a

775
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:16,840
Speaker 3: four and a half line, just smash the under like

776
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:19,040
Speaker 3: that's the advantage of props. You could just be that

777
00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:21,120
Speaker 3: person that does that. You could hone in on one

778
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 3: specific thing and still be proper.

779
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:25,120
Speaker 1: Fair enough, Sean, let me get you out of here

780
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:28,239
Speaker 1: on this. Lastly, I mentioned to Chris that I, as

781
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:31,360
Speaker 1: an emotional hedge, I bet the overs on my fantasy

782
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:34,640
Speaker 1: opponent's props on Monday Night football. So either I hit

783
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:36,920
Speaker 1: the prop or I wouldn't my week. But tell me,

784
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 1: what are some of the ups and downs, joys or

785
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:41,759
Speaker 1: things you've lamented in your career. What was like the

786
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:43,960
Speaker 1: worst beat or the biggest high betting props.

787
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 4: Well, the biggest tie was Patrick Mahomes under his rushing

788
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 4: prop in the Super Bowl. Chris called it a bad beat,

789
00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:54,840
Speaker 4: but I call it a good win, and that fair enough.

790
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:57,759
Speaker 4: But the worst beat of all times, Stucky was.

791
00:36:57,760 --> 00:36:58,239
Speaker 1: On it with me.

792
00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:01,719
Speaker 4: We had Jimmy Graham under something like seventeen and a

793
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 4: half receiving yards. He had nothing, no catches, no yards,

794
00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:07,440
Speaker 4: and the very last play of the game, it was

795
00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 4: total garbage time. Nope, like they were down by ten

796
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 4: plus he caught a one handed twenty one yard a

797
00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:17,720
Speaker 4: touchdown grab in the back of the end zone, ruining

798
00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 4: our bets. So that that was my worst feat of

799
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:21,359
Speaker 4: all ten that is.

800
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:26,640
Speaker 1: Caught Jimmy Graham. Wow. All right, So it can even

801
00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 1: happen to these guys, but it doesn't happen that often.

802
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:33,840
Speaker 1: So make sure to follow both Sean and Chris online

803
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 1: and in the Action Network app. I am the Spiton

804
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:41,360
Speaker 1: statissian Dane Martinez. This has been another edition of the

805
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 1: Experts Guide to Betting, this time talking props on the

806
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 1: Action Network. I have a great one, guys,