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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of is information. Wouldn't

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Speaker 1: you agree? I've got five dollars?

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Speaker 2: This is a ratable level.

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Speaker 1: How they traveled.

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Speaker 3: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable.

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Speaker 4: Humans need fantasy to be human.

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Speaker 2: Oh my goodness, I'm mistake.

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Speaker 3: Prone, the best, relentless, refusing to give up.

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Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn, very bless?

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Speaker 2: What's a verybody?

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Fantasy Flex podcast from the Action Network

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Speaker 3: in Fantasy Labs, I'm your host, Chris Raybond.

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Speaker 2: NFL Week seventeen is here.

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Speaker 3: We're going to break down the rest of the NFL

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Speaker 3: Week seventeen sway and I am your host, Chris raybon

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Speaker 3: and joining me one of the most accurate rankers in

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Speaker 3: the game, the most acurate as a matter of fact,

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Speaker 3: the odds maker Sean Kerner.

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Speaker 2: Sean, happy holidays?

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Speaker 1: How you feeling happy holidays? Feeling good?

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Speaker 3: Uh?

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Speaker 4: We had another amazing show last week where we gave

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Speaker 4: out like I don't know six seven uh touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: You hit on another SGP with Ford, Josebash and Nice.

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Speaker 4: Our favorite uh touchdown parlay hit too with Deebo Samuel.

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Speaker 1: You called that good time.

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Speaker 4: To buy low and Jaylen McMillan hit for plus seven thirteen.

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Speaker 4: So looking to keep this rolling, you know.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and those are you know those always the guy.

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Speaker 3: It's just kind of that that that DFS mentality of

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Speaker 3: you've got to got to buy low and debo is

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Speaker 3: just kind of that guy. You know, his price is

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Speaker 3: going lower and lower to the point I think I

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Speaker 3: said it was like he's in the five k range

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Speaker 3: now like that, like low fives like that is just crazy.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, we'll try to keep it going. We had

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Speaker 3: a we had adult, you had Dalton Schultz, I think

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Speaker 3: David Moore AGB.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so it's one catch he barely got into. I

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Speaker 4: think they challenge or they were about to review it

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Speaker 4: as like please don't but he barely got in.

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Speaker 1: That. That was good to see, all right.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So reminder all of our fantasy football content, DFS

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Speaker 3: tools and models available right now over at fantasy labs

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Speaker 3: dot com. Again, all of our award winning rankings, projections

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Speaker 3: and more at Fantasy labs dot com. Thursday Night Football,

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Speaker 3: Seahawks at the Bears. Bears plus three and a half

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Speaker 3: at home to total forty two and half. Bears tackle

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Speaker 3: left tackle Braxon Jones went on IR So not not

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Speaker 3: great for Chicago, But what are you looking at in

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Speaker 3: this one?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: So for the Seahawks, gonna have to stick with my boy.

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Speaker 4: No offense here, no idea. Who's gonna be playing running

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Speaker 4: back in the game. You know, Kenth Walker and Zach

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Speaker 4: Sharper or if he if they're both out, Kenny McIntosh

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Speaker 4: will be a popular play.

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Speaker 1: I think he's solid.

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Speaker 4: I don't know if he can handle a full workload,

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Speaker 4: but he might have to hear, so that's something to

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Speaker 4: keep an eye out on. But no offense. His usage

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Speaker 4: just continues to go up. He's had a new season

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Speaker 4: high again last week with a seventy eight percent routes

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Speaker 4: run rate. It's just been going up ever since he

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Speaker 4: returned from injury four games ago. He's been seeing the

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Speaker 4: highest usage all season. He's been averaging a seventy five

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Speaker 4: percent routes run rate and you know, seeing a decent

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Speaker 4: target share right around you know, nineteen percent over the stretch.

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Speaker 4: So in DFS player props, I think it's it's a

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Speaker 4: market to buy low on him, but especially the touchdown market.

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Speaker 4: He's up to plus four to ten right now, actually

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Speaker 4: showing the most value in our touchdown prop tool. But again,

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Speaker 4: he's yet to score a touchdown in two seasons with

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Speaker 4: the Seahawks. And I'm not saying he should have ten

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Speaker 4: touchdowns by now or anything, but he should have more

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Speaker 4: than zero. So I think it's a good time to

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Speaker 4: continue to kind of buy low on him because he's

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Speaker 4: got excellent underlying usage right now. There's no reason for

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Speaker 4: him not to have a potential big game, especially on

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Speaker 4: a Showdown slate. I'm gonna roll with him here, and

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Speaker 4: on the bear side, I gotta go a little bit

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Speaker 4: shocky here. They're such a top heavy team. What am

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Speaker 4: I supposed to do? Give out Colin Johnson? Colin Johnson

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Speaker 4: would be like the dart throw for a Showdown slate

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Speaker 4: and a massive GPP. I think he has some sneaky

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Speaker 4: touch on upside, but I give him like a ninety

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Speaker 4: percent chance to have zero catches here. So I'm gonna

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Speaker 4: go Dj Moore because Dj Moore is just popping in

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Speaker 4: my model.

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Speaker 1: I mentioned it last week.

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Speaker 4: He's just outside my top twelve, but he's just seeing massive,

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Speaker 4: massive usage right now. I kind of explain that's kind

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Speaker 4: of the offense right now. Just dump it off to

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Speaker 4: Dj Moore A Ton. They've been using him in the

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Speaker 4: running game, kind of like that prime Deebo Samuel role

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Speaker 4: where he might get a couple you know, design rush

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Speaker 4: temps here, maybe even around the goal line. Who knows,

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Speaker 4: but he's had six or more receptions in six straight

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Speaker 4: games now, and I don't know what the weather report

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Speaker 4: will be in this. I think there's definitely gonna be rain.

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Speaker 4: Unclear if it's going to be like heavy or how often,

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Speaker 4: but I think if it's a if it's a rains game,

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Speaker 4: DJ Moore is going to benefit because again he's getting

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Speaker 4: those low A dot shots, you know, he's getting screen passes,

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Speaker 4: things like that. So I think his role should stay

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Speaker 4: the same, maybe see even more work if it is

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Speaker 4: kind of wet field conditioned. So Dave Moore, I know

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Speaker 4: he's chocky, but in DFS, I would make sure he's

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Speaker 4: in a ton of my lineups, and he's another player

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Speaker 4: we're actually showing value on in our touchdown prop tool.

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Speaker 1: So I'm all in on DJ Moore right now.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there is looks like as we record just about

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Speaker 3: a forty two chance of rain, tempts forty four degrees

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Speaker 3: win six mile per hour, So that does look too crazy.

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Speaker 2: Does look too crazy?

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Speaker 4: That it's whether the hell are you supposed to do

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Speaker 4: with that? But in forty two percent, doesn't that mean

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Speaker 4: like it's actually going to rain? But forty two percent

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Speaker 4: of the city will be covered with rain? Isn't how

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Speaker 4: you're supposed to interpret that?

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Speaker 2: Oh, I thought it was a forty two percent chance.

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Speaker 1: No, I don't think it's I don't think it's like that.

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Speaker 4: I don't think it's like giving out like touchdown odds

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Speaker 4: things like that. I think it's like any percent chance

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Speaker 4: is implied like it's going to rain. It's just going

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Speaker 4: to rain, like twenty percent of the area or something

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Speaker 4: like that. I don't know, my mind this is I'm

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Speaker 4: not a nemerologist.

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Speaker 1: Look it up.

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Speaker 4: No, it's it's definitely something that doesn't mean it's going

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Speaker 4: to rain in this game. I have no clue either way.

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Speaker 4: DJ More is gonna do good that that I do know.

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Speaker 3: Okay, now we have to do like an emergency pod

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Speaker 3: like a weather breakdown. Oh yeah, I just don't. I've

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Speaker 3: never heard that. And I've yeah, I've never heard that.

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Speaker 3: I because especially when I'm looking at the reports, it's like, okay,

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Speaker 3: chance of rain, and then I see forty two percent,

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Speaker 3: it will say like definite rain and it will be

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Speaker 3: like seventy five percent. So I mean I always just

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Speaker 3: kind of equated it to like odds, but yeah, that

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Speaker 3: could just be my personal bias if anyone knows tweet

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Speaker 3: us or continent. But yeah, I'm honestly mind won't right

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Speaker 3: now because I also stop recording this and go, let's

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Speaker 3: this up right now?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's it's you're not wrong.

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Speaker 1: That's how it should be, but it's not.

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Speaker 4: And again, if if you're talking about a forecast like

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Speaker 4: days out, that's a little bit different. But yeah, like

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Speaker 4: it's definitely like the percent chance is like it's it's

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Speaker 4: going to rain, but only a percent chance of the

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Speaker 4: city will experience it something like that. That that's the

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Speaker 4: vague definition I would give it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'm looking at it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So it's it's saying, essentially, like a fifty percent

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Speaker 3: chance of rain means there's a fifty percent probability that

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Speaker 3: at least point oh one inches of rain will fall

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Speaker 3: somewhere within the forecast area.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, it's like.

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Speaker 3: A probability mixed with a yeah projection of like oh yeah,

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Speaker 3: I get I see, I see what you're saying, you

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Speaker 3: know what I mean, Like it's there a chance of

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Speaker 3: a of a reception of a reception.

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Speaker 2: It's like when they it's like in a book.

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Speaker 3: Instead of putting like a point half a reception, they

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Speaker 3: just give you like Julian hill over under four and

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Speaker 3: a half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that's even better. Yeah the Justin Watson prop

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Speaker 1: right half a yard? Yeah, I get it. Same thing.

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Speaker 2: Yeah about the distribution, I get ha. Yeah, all right,

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Speaker 2: I still don't quite get it.

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Speaker 3: Actually, I wheight, but I'm gonna look, I'm gonna have

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Speaker 3: to research this now.

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Speaker 2: Now you just like put this in my head.

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Speaker 1: I am too. I'm ignorant. It's gonna be weather.

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Speaker 2: This weekend too. Oh man? All right, Uh, let's move on.

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Speaker 3: We got Saturday football, Chargers at Patriots. Patriots down to

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Speaker 3: a four point underdog at home, total forty two and

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Speaker 3: a half. On the New England side. I like Austin

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Speaker 3: Hooper here. His route rate has been trending up since

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Speaker 3: to buy. They're using that double tight end set more

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Speaker 3: and more, sixty four percent route rate in the two

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Speaker 3: games since to buy forty before. So I don't even

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Speaker 3: have him, you know, projected for that full you know

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Speaker 3: sixty four percent. It's only two games, but I do

185
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Speaker 3: have him with the up Chicken. He's up to like

186
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Speaker 3: just outside my top twenty projected tight end, so I

187
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Speaker 3: love him.

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Speaker 2: Here is a dart.

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Speaker 3: On the DFS slate, on on the multi game slate,

190
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Speaker 3: or got like a core play in the showdown slate

191
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Speaker 3: and the charge. I mean, the Chargers play a lot

192
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Speaker 3: of his own defense, so that's usually good for tight ends.

193
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Speaker 3: You got Hooper, you got Henry in this spot, so

194
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Speaker 3: like those guys to get a lot of targets. And

195
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Speaker 3: then on the other side, Patriots playing the second most

196
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Speaker 3: man coverage, so McConkey is their band beater, the second

197
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Speaker 3: best against man on the charge and it's pretty shaky,

198
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Speaker 3: but it's Josh Palmer, you know.

199
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Speaker 2: Quentin Johnson, I think he's six.

200
00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:38,040
Speaker 3: Herbert is like six of twenty three targeting him against

201
00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:40,360
Speaker 3: band coverage or something crazy like that. This year, Palmer

202
00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:43,559
Speaker 3: he's close to fifty percent, so still not great efficiency,

203
00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:46,800
Speaker 3: but when he does catch a ball is usually a

204
00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:51,280
Speaker 3: longer catch and more upside here, So like fading Johnston

205
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Speaker 3: for Palmer. He has a fifteen percent target rate against

206
00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:58,880
Speaker 3: zone covers. That jumps up to twenty percent against man coverage,

207
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Speaker 3: so Palmer to be swept on. He's getting like a

208
00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:05,200
Speaker 3: higher a dot targets down the field, So he's not

209
00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:08,520
Speaker 3: a high volume guy, but when he does get a

210
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Speaker 3: few catches or see a little bit of an upstick,

211
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Speaker 3: he can be somewhat of a slate breaker, especially if

212
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Speaker 3: he ends up scoring a touchdown here. So he's been

213
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Speaker 3: kind of under the radar this year, but it made

214
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Speaker 3: a really nice catch on a two point conversion. Easily

215
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Speaker 3: could have been a touchdown instead. You know, the same

216
00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:25,920
Speaker 3: skill set would be needed. So like the way he's

217
00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:28,360
Speaker 3: playing right now, I think he'll be kind of overlooked

218
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Speaker 3: at at you know, in that kind of mid to

219
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Speaker 3: low end wide receiver ringe. So like Josh Palmer and

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Speaker 3: Hooper for the Patriots. All right, next up, we got

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Speaker 3: the Broncos at the Cincinnati Bengals.

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Speaker 2: Bengals three point favorites.

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Speaker 3: Some three and a half's out there as well. Total

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Speaker 3: up to fifty that's been going up.

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Speaker 2: Makes sense. I mean, like I said, I think I

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Speaker 2: talked about on the projection spot bo.

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Speaker 3: Nixt plays very well against some of the bathhorse defenses

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Speaker 3: in the league.

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Speaker 2: But where you're going with this one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: So for the Broncos, I'm gonna go with Marvin, who

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Speaker 4: I note you're high on as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, love him this week.

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Speaker 4: Just been heating up and seeing increase in usage with

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Speaker 4: the nice three catch sixty two yard game against the Chargers.

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Speaker 4: Also tends to get you know, a couple designed rush

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Speaker 4: attempts a game too, so that's a nice little bonus

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Speaker 4: with him. But this is a matchup where the Broncos

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Speaker 4: could be forced to throw at a higher rate just

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Speaker 4: in order to keep up with the Bengals offense. This

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Speaker 4: is a total in the fifties. The Bengals defense has

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Speaker 4: been an issue all season, and Mims is the kind

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Speaker 4: of guy that can be a downfill threat. Now he's

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Speaker 4: getting you know, some rush attempts things like that. He

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Speaker 4: has multiple ways of you know, hitting in dfs and

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Speaker 4: the touchdown market, So love him here. He's probably still

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Speaker 4: being overlooked too, if I'm being honest. So still a

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Speaker 4: good time to buy in on Marvin Mims. And then

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Speaker 4: for the Bengals, I feel like whoever gets the Bengals

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Speaker 4: these days is just going to give out Andre joseavash.

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Speaker 1: Because it's it's a top heavy offense.

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Speaker 4: It's Yeah, Chase Brown's obvious, Jamar Chase te Higgins are obvious.

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Speaker 4: You can either roll the dice on a tight end

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Speaker 4: or go with Yoshi. The tight end situation is absolutely

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Speaker 4: mess right now. I'm not touching that, So I'm going

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Speaker 4: with Yoshi. Cashed in for you last week he had

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Speaker 4: a you know, another solid game. I think like three

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Speaker 4: catches forty yards something like that in a touchdown.

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Speaker 1: That's kind of what you get with him.

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Speaker 4: And I always think he's a sneaky touchdown beat anyways.

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Speaker 4: You know, he's six foot three, probably been profile to

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Speaker 4: be t higgins long term replacement for a couple of

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Speaker 4: years now, so always love his upside. I think he's

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Speaker 4: still overlooked even though he's the number three receiver. And again,

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Speaker 4: this is a game with you know, really high total,

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Speaker 4: probably gonna be a lot of touchdowns to go around.

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Speaker 4: So love Yoshi in DFS and the touchdown market.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean he's he's probably with Joe Burrow running around,

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Speaker 3: you know, eighty plus percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: It's really simple.

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Speaker 3: A that mean can't get back from every every game,

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Speaker 3: pree touchdown, free, touchdown, three touchdown.

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Speaker 2: They gotta go somewhere.

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Speaker 3: All right, got the night capper card at the Rams.

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Speaker 3: Rams six point favorites to total forty eight. I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: go with DeMarcus Robinson for the Rams. The Cardinals are

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Speaker 3: thirty second in DVOA, dead last against number three wide

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Speaker 3: receivers according to FGN. And you know Robinson, really, that's

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Speaker 3: his whole thing is he's gonna either probably get a

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Speaker 3: touchdown or two touchdowns even or do absolutely nothing. So

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Speaker 3: he's always kind of a nice high variance dart throw

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Speaker 3: to fill out your lineup, you know, pretty low cost guy.

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Speaker 3: And then kind of a similar guy on the Cardinals,

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Speaker 3: Michael Wilson. The Rams are giving up the eighth most

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Speaker 3: scheduled justin receiving yards per game to number two wide receivers,

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Speaker 3: and Wilson's been moving around a little bit more in

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Speaker 3: the formation. Everybody's still waiting for this trade with Bride touchdown.

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Speaker 3: But Wilson's a guy that, you know, he gets some

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Speaker 3: beat targets, he gets some red zone looks. He has

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Speaker 3: a bunch of different ways to get on the board

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Speaker 3: here and put up a good could uh put up

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Speaker 3: a good stat line. But he's another high variance guy

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Speaker 3: some some weeks, so just do almost nothing, so he's

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Speaker 3: usually off people's radars. I think, you know, Dors with

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Speaker 3: that uptick might be a popular guy with all the

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Speaker 3: running backs banged up.

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Speaker 2: But Wilson I like the way.

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Speaker 3: I like how he's out there, you know, ninety percent

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Speaker 3: of the time and has a multitude of ways to score.

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Speaker 2: And I don't know if they I don't know.

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Speaker 3: Dorts had that fumble near the goal line a couple

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Speaker 3: of weeks ago or was that last yeah, two weeks ago,

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Speaker 3: I think, so, I don't know if he gets like

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Speaker 3: the the the red zone usage as much. So like

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Speaker 3: Wilson for the Cardinals, all right, uh main Slates, Raiders, Saints.

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Speaker 3: I mean, jesus, what have we got here? The Saints

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Speaker 3: home doogs high one, the total thirty seven and a half.

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Speaker 3: It's like what eighty O'Connell against Spencer Ratler is that?

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Speaker 1: Is that?

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Speaker 2: What's gonna be disgusting?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I was gonna complain I get stuck with these

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Speaker 4: games with the totals under forty, But I just gave

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Speaker 4: out a game that had a total in the fifties,

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Speaker 4: so kind of he evens out. But for the Raiders side,

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with Trey Tucker, Nick Giffin's favorite wide

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Speaker 4: receiver in all the NFL. But you know, Trey Tucker

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Speaker 4: just always tends to do better against teams that use

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Speaker 4: more man coverage and when Aidan O'Connell is under center,

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Speaker 4: and so both factors are in play this week as

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Speaker 4: the Saints have used man coverage at the six highest

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Speaker 4: rate and aid O'Connell's the quarterback for the Raiders right now.

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Speaker 4: So I love Tucker's upside this week. He has big

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Speaker 4: play upside too, so excellent dart throw and DFS long

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Speaker 4: shot touchdown, bet.

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Speaker 1: All of it. Love Trey Tucker here on the Saint side.

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Speaker 4: Not much to choose from, but I'm going to go

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Speaker 4: with Foster Moreau.

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Speaker 1: I love you're high on Juwan Johnson. Love him.

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Speaker 4: Foster Moreau's not too far behind in terms of usage.

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Speaker 4: He continues to run a rout on you know, roughly

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Speaker 4: half of Spencer Rattler dropbacks, so he's usually a good

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Speaker 4: bet for two to three catches with just the wide

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Speaker 4: receiver room just being constant flux. We'll see if Chris

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Speaker 4: o'lovey returns this week, but you know, if Alvin Kamara's

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Speaker 4: out again, that's more potential targets plus around the red zone.

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Speaker 4: You know, Taysom Hill's out for the season, so Foster

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Speaker 4: Row's one of the top you know, red zone threats

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Speaker 4: in my opinion. So he has four touchdowns on the season.

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Speaker 4: He's always a sneaky bet for a touchdown. That's what

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Speaker 4: we're going with here. This is a revenge game. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: give me Foster Morole here for you know, a really

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Speaker 4: deep deep dart throw in DFS and who I like

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Speaker 4: as a touchdown flyer here?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, yeah, the Saints doubt it. Scantly missed

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Speaker 3: the last one. He should be back, but yeah, we'll

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Speaker 3: see about him.

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Speaker 1: Love.

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Speaker 2: But either way, I mean.

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Speaker 3: They got to continue. They're pretty likely to continue running

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Speaker 3: that too tight an offense. That's what they've been doing

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Speaker 3: even with Tasom out. All right, gets Bills Bills ten

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Speaker 3: and a half with favorites total forty six and a half.

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Speaker 2: Like, yeah, Coleman for the Bills.

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Speaker 3: Just they are kind of playing all their receivers round

355
00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:08,920
Speaker 3: fifty sixty percent of the snaps, so no one's running away.

356
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Speaker 3: Make Coho Sekire in some games gets a little higher,

357
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Speaker 3: but Coleman's gonna be in that probably in that sixty

358
00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:15,920
Speaker 3: to seventy percent range. But the Jets do play the

359
00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:19,879
Speaker 3: sixth most man coverage in the league, and Coleman weeds

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Speaker 3: the Bills.

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Speaker 2: A yardage against man coverage.

362
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Speaker 3: His targets per route rate goes from twelve percent against

363
00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:29,439
Speaker 3: zone coverage to twenty one and a half percent against

364
00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:34,399
Speaker 3: man coverage. He's averaging twenty four yards per catch with

365
00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:37,680
Speaker 3: a couple of touchdowns against man. So he's been a

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00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:40,080
Speaker 3: little bit of a higher upside kind of guy, kind

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00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:43,639
Speaker 3: of guy you want high variants in this type of spot.

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Speaker 3: And of course he has, you know, big upside just

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Speaker 3: attached to Josh Allen, but it's you know, with these

370
00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:52,359
Speaker 3: Bills receivers, he kind of got to just you know,

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Speaker 3: the floor is pretty much zero for all of them

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Speaker 3: at this point except exception here and for the Jets.

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Speaker 3: Tyler Conklin, he is is twenty nine hundred and at

374
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Speaker 3: tight end you could get you can get five five

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Speaker 3: ish catches.

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Speaker 2: From a guy like Conklin.

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Speaker 3: Buffalo's running the fifth most zone coverage and Conklin he

378
00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:14,879
Speaker 3: only averages point one yards for route against man coverage,

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Speaker 3: but that goes ten x against zone up to one

380
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Speaker 3: point twenty six so more than ten x uh when

381
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:24,000
Speaker 3: he's playing zone coverage here. So he could be a

382
00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:27,359
Speaker 3: guy that just gets some ugly catches and UH finds

383
00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:29,159
Speaker 3: his If he finds his way into the end zone,

384
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Speaker 3: you're in business because I think he can catch you know,

385
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Speaker 3: five six balls in the spot, especially with the Jets.

386
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Speaker 2: Are in a trailing game.

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Speaker 3: Script here looking for weekly projections from me and Sean Kerner.

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00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:41,879
Speaker 3: The only place you'll find them is at Fantasy labs

389
00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:45,679
Speaker 3: dot com. You'll get our weekly player projections every week,

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Speaker 2: We've dropped the link in this episode's description. Just remember

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00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:16,560
Speaker 2: to use code flex forty at checkout all Right, Titans

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Speaker 2: Jags Jags one point favorites total forty and a half. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: this is I mean, geesh ugly, what do you what

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Speaker 2: are you doing in this one?

401
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Speaker 4: Sean I'm going back to the well with Taj Spears here,

402
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Speaker 4: who cashed in on him last week with not one

403
00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:34,400
Speaker 4: but two touchdowns. But I figured, you know, he could

404
00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:37,560
Speaker 4: see a bigger role with Pallard clearly not you know,

405
00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:40,760
Speaker 4: being one hundred percent Titans have nothing to play for,

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00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:44,600
Speaker 4: and just Mason Ruoff has loved checking it down to Spears.

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Speaker 1: So same thing goes this week.

408
00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:49,600
Speaker 4: It's a spot where the Titans might not have to

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Speaker 4: throw as much against the jagguars, assuming they do keep

410
00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:56,240
Speaker 4: it close to the running backs, might both see you know,

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00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:58,080
Speaker 4: more volume this week as a result.

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Speaker 1: On the other.

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00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:02,960
Speaker 4: Side, it is really tricky because you know, I was

414
00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:06,880
Speaker 4: high on Breton Strange as well last week, but I'm

415
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,120
Speaker 4: not sure what happened to him. He had a huge

416
00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:12,240
Speaker 4: drop in playing time. Could have been bench or injury related.

417
00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:14,240
Speaker 4: He I mean, he was questionable at the shoulder injury.

418
00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:16,760
Speaker 4: But it was Luke Farrell who ended up running a

419
00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 4: route on thirty five percent dropbacks, one fewer route than Strange.

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00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:23,720
Speaker 4: So I'm gonna go with Luke Ferrell here. Again, just

421
00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:25,720
Speaker 4: kind of not really sure what's going on here. But

422
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:30,320
Speaker 4: if for some reason, Strangers benched or his injury flared up,

423
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:32,960
Speaker 4: Farrell would be the next man up. And I think

424
00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:35,840
Speaker 4: no one in the world is thinking about playing Luke

425
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:38,760
Speaker 4: Ferrell in DFS right now or betting on his touchdowns.

426
00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:41,240
Speaker 4: But he's been sneaking in the past. I remember last

427
00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:44,800
Speaker 4: year he was kind of like Tanner Hudson in this offense,

428
00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 4: just getting targets whenever he was out there. So if

429
00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:51,120
Speaker 4: you know this is more of a timeshare or something's up,

430
00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:53,920
Speaker 4: I think Luke Ferrell would be extremely sneaky this week.

431
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:57,119
Speaker 4: So he's a long shot, I'll admit it, But I

432
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Speaker 4: just I'm not sure what's going on outside of like

433
00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:01,760
Speaker 4: Brian Thomas June here in this passing game. So I'm

434
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,720
Speaker 4: gonna have to get crazy here with Luke Ferrell being

435
00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:06,760
Speaker 4: my touchdown room.

436
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:09,119
Speaker 1: Twenty to one.

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00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:12,080
Speaker 4: I mean, strange is like ruled out, Like he was

438
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:13,840
Speaker 4: actually hurt and he's ruled out might be a little

439
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:15,560
Speaker 4: bit more obvious, But yeah, I don't know.

440
00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:16,640
Speaker 1: Do you know what happened with.

441
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:18,919
Speaker 2: I didn't.

442
00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:22,280
Speaker 3: I haven't rewatched that game yet, so I'm not exactly sure.

443
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:23,400
Speaker 2: I did see the downtick.

444
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:26,160
Speaker 3: I assumed it was injury related just because he did

445
00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:27,439
Speaker 3: come in banged up.

446
00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:30,920
Speaker 2: I remember seeing him. I remember seeing him at one point.

447
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:32,879
Speaker 3: I take a hit and I go to the side him,

448
00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:36,399
Speaker 3: but I don't I don't quite remember if he like

449
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 3: came back in after that or like if that was

450
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 3: something I did something normal or what.

451
00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:42,600
Speaker 2: So, yeah, I gotta I gotta watch.

452
00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:48,679
Speaker 3: But yeah, I did see the downtick for him, all right. Uh,

453
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:54,159
Speaker 3: Panthers at the Bucks Bucks eight point favorites total forty nine.

454
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 3: Tommy Tremble for me on the Panther side, he is

455
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:05,399
Speaker 3: splitting work right now with Jatavian Sanders, But Tremble is

456
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,479
Speaker 3: a receiving tight end at heart, and he is capable

457
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:10,919
Speaker 3: of popping for some big games. Earlier this year, I

458
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,359
Speaker 3: think he had a game where he got into the

459
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:17,320
Speaker 3: nineties and receiving yards, So he's he's a guy also

460
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:21,720
Speaker 3: that the Panthers target more against the Blitz, and we

461
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:23,200
Speaker 3: know the Bucks like the Blitz at one of the

462
00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:25,960
Speaker 3: highest rates in the league, and he's top three in

463
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:29,280
Speaker 3: terms of their production against the Blitz. So, like, Tommy

464
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 3: Tremble is a kind of a sneaky dark throw here

465
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:32,200
Speaker 3: and then for.

466
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:33,399
Speaker 2: The Bucks, I mean, you gotta go.

467
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 3: Jalen McMillan, he's forty six hundred, but his last three

468
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,760
Speaker 3: games four for fifty nine and two touchdowns, five for

469
00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:42,600
Speaker 3: seventy five in a touchdown, five and fifty seven had

470
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:46,080
Speaker 3: a touchdown. He's getting scheme touchdowns, I mean, just getting

471
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:49,480
Speaker 3: an upstick of targets. Oughton's banged ups throwing. Shepherd's banged up,

472
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:53,200
Speaker 3: so that's even better for McMillan. So I love him

473
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:57,320
Speaker 3: yet again this week in another matchup that is not

474
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:01,360
Speaker 3: in the least bit prohibitive against the Panthers. All right,

475
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 3: Packers Vikes minus one and a half in favor of

476
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 3: Minnesota at home.

477
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,239
Speaker 2: That toto is forty and nine. Where you're going in

478
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:09,520
Speaker 2: this one?

479
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:13,359
Speaker 4: Sean for the Packers, I'm gonna go with Dontavian Wicks,

480
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 4: and we'll have to monitor Christian Watson's status. He's aff

481
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,440
Speaker 4: you to play if he's out. Obviously, you know Wis

482
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 4: is gonna step up. But this is a game where

483
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:25,000
Speaker 4: even if Watson does suit up, I think Wix could

484
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,679
Speaker 4: be sneaky here. This is a game where the Packers

485
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 4: will just probably have to throw at a higher rate

486
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:33,439
Speaker 4: than normal at Minnesota and the Vikings, you know they

487
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:35,639
Speaker 4: have a great defense, but they do tend to allow

488
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 4: you know, yards and completions, and Wicks is always a

489
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:41,160
Speaker 4: sneaky touchdown be scored last week.

490
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:43,200
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go with Wix here.

491
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:47,320
Speaker 4: His value in DFS and touchdown market will depend on

492
00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:51,440
Speaker 4: Watson's status, but like him either way. And for the Vikings,

493
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:54,240
Speaker 4: I mean, I just gave out Luke Ferrell, so I'm

494
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 4: gonna go with a little bit chalkier play here with TJ.

495
00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:59,440
Speaker 1: Howkinson, who's cooled off a bit.

496
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 4: He had a two catch game twenty seven yards last week,

497
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 4: so I think this is a good time to buy

498
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:08,679
Speaker 4: low and another tight end. He's yet to score a

499
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:11,360
Speaker 4: touchdown in eight games this year. That's kind of bizarre,

500
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 4: but he should be due for one. He you know,

501
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 4: he's still kind of working his way back from his

502
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:21,639
Speaker 4: ACL tair still, you know, building chemistry with his new quarterback,

503
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 4: Sam Darnold. So he's the type of guy that's just

504
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 4: going to get better as we get to the playoffs

505
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 4: and then in the playoffs. So I think right now

506
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:29,560
Speaker 4: it would be a good time to you know, invest

507
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 4: in TJ. Howkinson and DFS and certainly the touchdown market,

508
00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 4: just considering he hasn't scored yet this year.

509
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's he's been out there about you know, seventy

510
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 3: five eighty percent of the time. It kind of varies

511
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:42,760
Speaker 3: by personnel usage a little bit, but this should be

512
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:44,879
Speaker 3: a good spot for him in a game with a

513
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:48,439
Speaker 3: spread of under a field. Go all right, Next up,

514
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 3: we got the Colts at the Giants. Giants eight point

515
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:54,600
Speaker 3: home dogs total forty and a half in this one.

516
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 2: But going to go with the guy usually low.

517
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 3: On, but Wando Robinson he has the same target per

518
00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 3: route rate against Cover three as Malik Neighbors. And of

519
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 3: course that is the Colt Gus Bradwy defensive coordinator. Gus

520
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 3: Bradwy's a preferred coverage. That's their scheme. They run a

521
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:18,400
Speaker 3: lot of Cover three single high. So Wanda Robinson actually

522
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 3: equals Neighbors in terms of target rate there. And he's

523
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:25,160
Speaker 3: a guy that probably gonna have to get a ton

524
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 3: of receptions, but he's actually capable of doing that.

525
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:28,160
Speaker 1: You know he can.

526
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,399
Speaker 3: Because he has such a low aid dot. He's capable

527
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 3: of putting up, you know, eight to ten receptions in

528
00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:32,479
Speaker 3: a given game.

529
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:33,640
Speaker 2: I don't know if Drew.

530
00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:36,919
Speaker 3: Lock can throw eight to ten accurate passes, but I

531
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 3: hope he hope he gets there, because I think Robinson's

532
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 3: a little bit undervalued in this spot.

533
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 2: Could could see.

534
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:46,119
Speaker 3: Some wind in this game, you know, maybe favors the

535
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:49,400
Speaker 3: underneath guys as well. And on the Colt side, gotta

536
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 3: go a Donna Mitchell here. His expected touchdowns should have around,

537
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:57,560
Speaker 3: you know, two to three touchdowns this year, but he doesn't,

538
00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:00,159
Speaker 3: and so I think he's a little bit undervalued. You know,

539
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:01,919
Speaker 3: you might see Al Pierce come back and him go

540
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,920
Speaker 3: to the number four receiver, but he's targeted a high

541
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 3: percentage of his routes, and he's targeted downfield, so he

542
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 3: can still get into the end zone or get a

543
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:15,439
Speaker 3: couple of long catches. Even if he's not technically the

544
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 3: number three receiver, he'll be even sneakier. So like Donnie

545
00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:21,960
Speaker 3: Mitchell as always, can't touch the Colts tight ends.

546
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:23,880
Speaker 2: I mean they're just, oh god.

547
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,159
Speaker 4: That's my favorite thing to project every week, the Colts

548
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 4: tight ends.

549
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:30,400
Speaker 2: Point point eight receptions for all.

550
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 1: It's crazy, yeah, all over the place. All right.

551
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 3: You got the Dolphins at the Browns, Brown six and

552
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:42,639
Speaker 3: a half point home Dogs total forty in this one, Sean,

553
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:43,200
Speaker 3: where are you going?

554
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:44,119
Speaker 1: Uh?

555
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:46,880
Speaker 4: Yeah for the Dolphins, I'm gonna go with Raheem Mosert.

556
00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 4: You know, it sounds like Jay Wattle could return this week.

557
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:53,359
Speaker 4: That's gonna daning Milake Washington. I still think Washington's a

558
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:57,680
Speaker 4: sneaky bet in dfs and touchdown markets, especially if Waddle's

559
00:26:57,720 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 4: out again. But I'll go with Motort here because this

560
00:26:59,920 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 4: is a game where you know, the Dolphins should be

561
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:03,719
Speaker 4: able to play with the lead, be a bit more

562
00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 4: run heavy, which will certainly help Mosert. He is the

563
00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:08,879
Speaker 4: clear number two back right now. Jalen Right must be

564
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 4: in the doghouse. He's just barely getting playing time. Plus

565
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 4: you know most are we've seen him use around the

566
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 4: goal line. He's clearly great in that role. He had

567
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:19,480
Speaker 4: over twenty total touchdowns last year. So this is a

568
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 4: spot where, yeah, I could see most are getting a

569
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 4: cheap touchdown, just getting more work in general, since it

570
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 4: should be a pretty easy, you know, run heavy game

571
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 4: script for the Dolphins and then for the I mean

572
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:32,879
Speaker 4: the Browns are really tricky to project right now. No

573
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:35,360
Speaker 4: clue who's going to be under center, no clue if

574
00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 4: like Cedric Tillman or David Joku will be active.

575
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 1: But I'll go Jordan Akins here.

576
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:44,480
Speaker 4: It does sound like David Jok, who's already dealing with

577
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:47,200
Speaker 4: I think it was a hamstring injury. Heading into the game,

578
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:49,480
Speaker 4: he was really iffy to play, but he picked up

579
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:52,440
Speaker 4: a knee injury that was bad enough to I think

580
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 4: he's getting an MRI. So I mean, as you're listening

581
00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 4: to this, maybe we have clarity on this, but it

582
00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:59,480
Speaker 4: just sounds like Joe who might not play this week.

583
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 4: So you know Aikins will step up. He stepped up

584
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:05,639
Speaker 4: when Jok who left the game last week, so you

585
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 4: know he should be in a full time role here

586
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:09,640
Speaker 4: if no Joke who's out, probably not going to see

587
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:12,720
Speaker 4: a ton of volume, but certainly a sneaky touchdown bet So,

588
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:16,159
Speaker 4: if the Browns do score a touchdown, it'll likely be

589
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 4: Jerome Ford. But you know, if they throw near the

590
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 4: goal line, you know Aikins is right up there with

591
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 4: you know, someone like Jerry Judy or someone to catch

592
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 4: a touchdown. So I'm gonna go with Akins here, assuming Jok,

593
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 4: who's either really banged up or completely ruled out for

594
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 4: this game.

595
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think we have any definitive news on him.

596
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,960
Speaker 3: We just got you know, he just had the the MRI.

597
00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 3: So he is he is questionable, but he hasn't been

598
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:47,840
Speaker 3: ruled out yet as as of Tuesday, So most are

599
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 3: Aikins all right, Dallas at Philly nine and a half

600
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 3: point favorites are the Eagles at home. The total forty

601
00:28:55,320 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 3: two and a half. Jalen Hurt's questionable concussion protocol, the

602
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 3: line has moved toward the Eagles. That leads me to

603
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:07,240
Speaker 3: believe that there's some people out there that believe strongly

604
00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 3: that he is going to end up suiting up here.

605
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 3: So but that's obviously something to monitor because Kenny Pickett

606
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 3: also got banged up in that game against Washington's and

607
00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 3: it starts to get real dicey here. So if it

608
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 3: hurts is out and it's Picket or Tanner McKee, then

609
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 3: that I would like Kenneth gangwell because I think they're

610
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:31,240
Speaker 3: just gonna run the ball so much that you're gonna have,

611
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:34,239
Speaker 3: you know, more than just sake, like more room than

612
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 3: just Saquon bark League for for some production, because I

613
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 3: mean you might have thirty thirty five backfield touches in

614
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,320
Speaker 3: this one. And if he if hurts in, I like

615
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 3: Grant Calcatara, you called it, I think you're super well

616
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 3: on him. He had a goosego last week. But Dallas

617
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 3: has struggled against tight ends. They're outside the top twenty

618
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:56,479
Speaker 3: in DVOA. And always like to kind of target these

619
00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:58,520
Speaker 3: guys that are on the field for a high percentage

620
00:29:58,520 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 3: of snaps coming off a goose en.

621
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 2: Again, Calcata still.

622
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 3: Running a route on ninety plus percent of the dropbacks,

623
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 3: has done it for three games straight. So even though

624
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:09,760
Speaker 3: he didn't register anything in the box score last week,

625
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:12,920
Speaker 3: still is out there. Can't pass block or run block,

626
00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 3: won't work a lick, but he litill run routes, so

627
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:20,560
Speaker 3: like him as well. And then for the Cowboys, Cavante Turpin,

628
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 3: I mean he saw an uptick in his route rate

629
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 3: to forty three percent. He's usually in the mid twenties.

630
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 3: So in a matchup like this that's really tough. Where

631
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 3: Cooper Rush really struggled that first time out, I think

632
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 3: you might use a guy like Turpin in that gadget

633
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 3: role as much as you can to try to manufacture

634
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 3: some offense. You also dealing with wide receiver injuries for Dallas.

635
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 3: Ceedee Lamb was banged up, Tolbert was banged up. Jalen

636
00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 3: Brooks missed last game as well, so could just see

637
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 3: an uptick just due to that. But I think this

638
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 3: is kind of the kind of game where you want

639
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 3: to manufacture some offense with your your fastest guy, most

640
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 3: explosive guy in Turpin who had started to see upticks

641
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:00,640
Speaker 3: starting to see more carries too, ceedee lamb to see

642
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 3: one to two carries every game. It seems like Turpin

643
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 3: has kind of inherited those one to two carries from

644
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 3: the wide receivers over the last month or so.

645
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:11,240
Speaker 2: So I like like turping a lot in the spot.

646
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:11,960
Speaker 1: Yeah.

647
00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 4: I think Calcaterra had the most routes last week without

648
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 4: a target. We need to like having a war for that, like, uh,

649
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 4: he's the cardio King of the week or something like that.

650
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 1: We need we need a term.

651
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 4: I was like seeing like that the routes, right, I

652
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:28,440
Speaker 4: sort them separately to get the routes run day of

653
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 4: zero targets. Uh, he was the king last week, the

654
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:32,960
Speaker 4: cardio king as I'll call him.

655
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, looking at Kate Atton used to do that and

656
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 3: then he made Pato blows up next year because k

657
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 3: do that, and then he's uh, I mean.

658
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:43,040
Speaker 2: He had his likes a little stretch with Yeah, the

659
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 2: bucks were down, So.

660
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:45,720
Speaker 1: He would need Yeah, he would need a J.

661
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 4: Brown and DeVante Smith to go down, kind of like

662
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 4: Kate out and had Evans and Godwin goes out the

663
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 4: same time.

664
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 1: Yeah.

665
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, he was the cardio king Laster got. That was

666
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 4: like the DeMarcus Robinson when he was on the Chiefs, right,

667
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 4: he'd be yeah thirty goodness, yeah, zero target.

668
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:05,080
Speaker 3: There's a couple other guy, the Quentin Patton, the guy

669
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:06,280
Speaker 3: would do it a lot.

670
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:08,680
Speaker 2: Wow, Yeah, there's a few.

671
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:11,720
Speaker 4: This is I always love seeing that that leaderboard though,

672
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:13,680
Speaker 4: and he takes it down.

673
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:16,160
Speaker 2: Didn't that Cooper Cup do it a couple of weeks ago?

674
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 1: No?

675
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, zero targets.

676
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 1: Oh I forget he had four targets. Yeah, yeah, four

677
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 1: targets you gotta have. You gotta help targets.

678
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:24,680
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah.

679
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 4: And there should be a betting market for that. That'd

680
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 4: be awesome.

681
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:35,280
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, one day all right, Uh, Sunday Night football.

682
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 2: We got the Commanders and the Falcons. That was flexed.

683
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 2: I believe into that spot on Sunday Night.

684
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:47,920
Speaker 3: So Falcons are four point road underdogs. The total forty

685
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:49,960
Speaker 3: seven in this one. Who do you like?

686
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:51,560
Speaker 1: Yeah?

687
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 4: So for the Commanders, I'll go with da Zakias here

688
00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:59,080
Speaker 4: who you know, stepped up to be the new number

689
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 4: two wide receiver Noah Brown on I are he was

690
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:06,120
Speaker 4: kind of competing with Diami Brown, who injured his hamstring

691
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 4: and he's questionable. So if he's out, you know, my

692
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 4: projection for him is going to be even higher. But

693
00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:13,360
Speaker 4: the Kiss has been really solid and limited playing time

694
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 4: this year, He's been commanding target, so I wasn't too

695
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 4: shocked to see him, you know, a roup for a

696
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 4: five catch, seven yard game with two touchdowns last week

697
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 4: and you know, more of a full time role. Unfortunately,

698
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 4: he had such a good game that everybody's going to

699
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 4: be on him here. But I still like him here.

700
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 4: You know, last week he got the revenge game bump

701
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:35,880
Speaker 4: against the Eagles. This week he gets it against the Falcons.

702
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 4: Played for them for several years, so even more of

703
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 4: a revenge game bump in my model. But yeah, he's

704
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 4: he's not going to be under the radar for this game,

705
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 4: but still going to keep rolling, you know, keep it

706
00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 4: rolling here, especially if Jammy Brown's ruled out. And then

707
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 4: for the man the Falcons, it's it's really tough because

708
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 4: they're kind of top heavy. I don't want to go

709
00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:59,680
Speaker 4: with Kyle Pitts, So I'm gonna just go at Darnell Mooney,

710
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 4: who I'm really high on. But they're you know, they're

711
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 4: a team where you know, Michael Pennix didn't have to

712
00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 4: throw much last week, but I thought he looked sharp,

713
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 4: So this is a game where he's probably gonna have

714
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:12,920
Speaker 4: to throw a lot more to keep up with the Commanders.

715
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:15,320
Speaker 4: You know, they're underdogs here, So I think this is

716
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 4: gonna be a good game for Michael Pennox. I think

717
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:21,320
Speaker 4: Mooney's gonna be potentially his top target because Drake Lennon

718
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 4: is banged up, not even sure if he's gonna play,

719
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:26,319
Speaker 4: so could lean on Mooney even more here. Who you know,

720
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 4: Mooney's had a really high for this ceiling, but he

721
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 4: also has a pretty big ceiling, So like some Penix,

722
00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:36,239
Speaker 4: Mooney stacks here and what should be a more pass

723
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:39,800
Speaker 4: heavy game script and yeah, love him in DFS. Obviously

724
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:42,279
Speaker 4: it's a showdown slate, so you're gonna have to get

725
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:44,600
Speaker 4: creative elsewhere. But I'm gonna have a ton of Mooney

726
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:47,160
Speaker 4: and think he's a solid touchdown bet here as well.

727
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:51,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I wonder if maybe the good thing for like

728
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:55,440
Speaker 3: the Keith is Jameson Crowder. Also he had two touchdowns,

729
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:57,640
Speaker 3: so like it's gonna kind of split up all that.

730
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, true, Washington. I mean maybe Luke McCaffrey. This is

731
00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 2: the returning kicks. Now, maybe who active?

732
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:07,399
Speaker 3: If Diami, I guess it would be Osbourne, right, would

733
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:08,960
Speaker 3: probably be Yeah, I.

734
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:11,920
Speaker 4: Think yeah, yeah, I mean he just learned the playbook.

735
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:16,040
Speaker 4: They got him what two weeks ago, you know. Yeah,

736
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:22,840
Speaker 4: with Crowder and McCaffrey there, it's kind of yeah, certain privacy.

737
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:25,279
Speaker 3: He might just be like, might be the key as

738
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 3: is like a starter and Crowder is is like a

739
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 3: starting slot.

740
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 4: But I think it would be Osborne just being active.

741
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:33,680
Speaker 4: But I think Crowder would see pretty big usage as well.

742
00:35:34,120 --> 00:35:38,759
Speaker 3: Again, yeah, yeah, yeah, that's probably how it would break down,

743
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:40,840
Speaker 3: because yeah, it seemed to like McCaffrey more in like this,

744
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:45,800
Speaker 3: like that returner, yeah role and less is offensive piece.

745
00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:50,600
Speaker 3: All right, wrap it up with the Lions at this

746
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 3: looked like such a good game when the schedule first

747
00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:57,480
Speaker 3: came out, and now it's just like okay, whatever, Yeah,

748
00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 3: rematch of the NFC Championship game in San Francisco. But

749
00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:06,880
Speaker 3: Lions four point road favorites. Total is fifty one.

750
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:08,240
Speaker 2: For the Niners.

751
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:12,160
Speaker 3: Jacob Cowing for me, you know, Shanahan's been talking him up,

752
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:14,359
Speaker 3: says he's gonna get a more playing time. He actually did,

753
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:17,359
Speaker 3: got n uptick to twenty percent routes run. So on

754
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:19,880
Speaker 3: a showdown slate, I think it's always important to kind

755
00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:22,080
Speaker 3: of dig a little bit deeper, said some of the spots,

756
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 3: and Cowing is a perfect example, Like he's not like

757
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:27,200
Speaker 3: a complete like he probably has, you know, better than

758
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:30,239
Speaker 3: like a ninety percent chance of not of you like,

759
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:32,279
Speaker 3: like he has better than a ten percent chance of

760
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:35,320
Speaker 3: catching a pass because he's starting to see an upticking

761
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:38,279
Speaker 3: routes and you know, they're out of the playoff hunt,

762
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:40,560
Speaker 3: so who knows how how that game goes. And the Lions,

763
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 3: I mean they they you always see a lot of

764
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:45,400
Speaker 3: variants in their games because they they can put up

765
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:48,080
Speaker 3: these big point totals blow people out, and you start

766
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:49,440
Speaker 3: to see a lot of the backups, so a lot

767
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:52,640
Speaker 3: of different ways Cowing could hit. Deebo also playing a

768
00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 3: little bit more in the backfield, so that opens up

769
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:58,480
Speaker 3: some snaps, you know for guys like Pearsall and Cowing,

770
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:00,520
Speaker 3: and they they don't need to see Chris con anymore,

771
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:03,359
Speaker 3: so like Jacob Callen the rookie year and then Craig

772
00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:07,840
Speaker 3: Reynolds for the Lions. You know, he didn't have really

773
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 3: it's pretty quiet, but he is that number two running

774
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:14,440
Speaker 3: back behind Jamior Gibbs. Now I do like Jamar Jefferson

775
00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 3: if he's but he would have to get elevated again.

776
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:19,359
Speaker 3: But he I kind of thought he might get some

777
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 3: carries ahead of Vaki and Vaki would be more in

778
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:23,880
Speaker 3: the receiving game, and that is what happened. So Jamar

779
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:26,960
Speaker 3: Jefferson would be like a sneaky guy you like to

780
00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 3: get in the end zone if like this game kind

781
00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:30,400
Speaker 3: of got out of hand a little bit. Got a

782
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:33,560
Speaker 3: few carries last week, but as we recorded, we don't

783
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:36,040
Speaker 3: know if he's gonna be elevated again because he's technically

784
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:39,279
Speaker 3: on the practice squad. So if Jefferson is elevated, Jefferson,

785
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 3: but Reynolds will be the guy that I think has

786
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 3: a better game than he did last week. All Right,

787
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:47,879
Speaker 3: we're gonna do something a little different this week. We've

788
00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 3: been doing the picking our favorite of our DFS picks

789
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 3: for a touchdown parlay for our Partway Express account on

790
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:57,880
Speaker 3: the Action Network app. Be sure to follow it for

791
00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 3: a bunch of Parway's long shot bet round robbins from myself,

792
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 3: Sean all the Action Network experts.

793
00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 2: But we're gonna do a well round robin. So we're

794
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:07,879
Speaker 2: gonna pick two guys each.

795
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:09,640
Speaker 3: Have we actually hit in our part way last week

796
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:12,319
Speaker 3: with was it mc millan and Gebo, But we're gonna

797
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 3: go round robin this week, Shawn, So I need uh go,

798
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:17,160
Speaker 3: I'll go for you. I'll get a pick from you,

799
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:18,840
Speaker 3: but I'll pick one and then I'll come back to you.

800
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:20,600
Speaker 3: So who you got your first?

801
00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 1: Uh?

802
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:24,760
Speaker 4: For the first one, let's just go uh Discord Legend

803
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:27,960
Speaker 4: and Nick Effin's favorite wide receiver, Trey Tucker. I think

804
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:29,840
Speaker 4: it's a great stop from so let's go to Trey Tucker.

805
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:34,440
Speaker 2: All right, I'm gonna go with DeMarcus Robinson.

806
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:39,839
Speaker 4: Baby, Hey, the reward we just named after him.

807
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:46,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's I mean, he's take a touchdowns Cardio King

808
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, all right, second one round robin touchdown, we

809
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 3: got I love it.

810
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 4: We're just doing like underrated wide receivers. Let's go with

811
00:38:57,080 --> 00:39:00,520
Speaker 4: Andre Joseabash for my second I mean.

812
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, connected to Joe Burrow that is yeah, Okay, let's see,

813
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 3: give me some key on Coleman.

814
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 1: Let's go.

815
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 2: But you know rookie late in the year, Yes.

816
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:14,439
Speaker 1: Deep threat.

817
00:39:15,239 --> 00:39:16,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't want to go. McMillan aga.

818
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 3: I feel like we're pushing the luck, which is like, like,

819
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:21,439
Speaker 3: you know, I do expect them to have a good game,

820
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:23,520
Speaker 3: but I feel like what four touchdowns in.

821
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:28,239
Speaker 4: Three weeks would be pushing your luck. I love this

822
00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:31,799
Speaker 4: four pack, like all these guys have massive upside and

823
00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:35,360
Speaker 4: are probably still kind of underrated in every capacity.

824
00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:37,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, so you got just to recap.

825
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:41,240
Speaker 3: We got Sean Trey Tucker that I went DeMarcus Robinson

826
00:39:41,560 --> 00:39:45,160
Speaker 3: and Sean Josebash and I went key on Coleman for

827
00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:49,799
Speaker 3: the second. So a little round robin touchdown. Parlay do

828
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:52,320
Speaker 3: with that as you will. Be sure to follow Parlay

829
00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 3: Express in the Action Network app That's Gonna Do It

830
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:58,840
Speaker 3: for our NFL Week seventeen DFS preview. Be sure to

831
00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:01,520
Speaker 3: subscribe to the pod so you don't miss an episode

832
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 3: all season long. Fantasywabs dot COM's where all of our

833
00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:08,680
Speaker 3: fantasy football content, award winning rankings is hows don't forget

834
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:10,960
Speaker 3: You can use code flex forty for forty dollars off

835
00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:14,400
Speaker 3: right now at fantasywabs dot com. Sean is on x

836
00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 3: at the inscribed maker Matchris Raybond, who have those same

837
00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 3: hands on free award winning Action Network app, have a

838
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:31,040
Speaker 3: happy Howiday is now Let's get this money. Action Network

839
00:40:31,120 --> 00:40:35,200
Speaker 3: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you

840
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:38,440
Speaker 3: care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty

841
00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:40,680
Speaker 3: four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler