1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,400 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:04,720 Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action boss. 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:08,480 Speaker 3: All right, here we go. 4 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:16,319 Speaker 2: Throwing up. I'm sitting up to cash stop. We'll see 5 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:19,000 Speaker 2: the most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go 6 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:24,040 Speaker 2: to wins. That's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I like 7 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:27,520 Speaker 2: to make money. All right, this is the ultimate kabanity. 8 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 1: You want to pass. 9 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:35,400 Speaker 2: And we are come the way. What's up, everybody? Welcome 10 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:38,360 Speaker 2: to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Chris Raybon, 11 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:43,880 Speaker 2: and this is your NFL Week fifteen betting preview. Today 12 00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 2: we're gonna build our Sunday six pack up against the 13 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:50,080 Speaker 2: spread bets with the help of my co host, Prime 14 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:55,640 Speaker 2: Minister of Degenerate Nation. Stucky stuck rough week overall for me, 15 00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 2: So thanks for carrying with a with a couple of wins. 16 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 2: Uh disappointed and get the chiefs to come home for 17 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 2: us too. You would have got this sweet. But nevertheless, 18 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 2: I'm owing for I have a complete face plant, so 19 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 2: I appreciate you putting some wins up there. 20 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:16,000 Speaker 3: A couple of lucky breaks in the week. I haven't 21 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:18,679 Speaker 3: getting any breaks the entire season. That's a lot of times. 22 00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:21,200 Speaker 3: What it comes down to. The Rams game was crazy, 23 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:23,600 Speaker 3: I mean, Stafford was unbelievable. But get a block punt 24 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:25,640 Speaker 3: for a touchdown there and the Giants get in the 25 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 3: back door. Yeah, it was a good week. We got 26 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 3: some good breaks, so hopefully that can continue. 27 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, so we'll get into the six pack. We'll start 28 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 2: with Thursday Night Football though, as we always do, and 29 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 2: it is a good matchup this week. 30 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight. 31 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:55,640 Speaker 2: Let's bet Thursday Night Football. We have the Rams at 32 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 2: the San Francisco forty nine Ers speak talking about being 33 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:00,840 Speaker 2: wrong on a game with the Bears just didn't show up. 34 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 2: All that, all that, all that good effort just completely 35 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:07,880 Speaker 2: vanished on forty nine ers. Back to the back to normal. 36 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 2: Don't need Trent Williams. But now you're looking at a 37 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:14,920 Speaker 2: situation where and stuck. I'm really curious to your thoughts 38 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 2: on this because the minute I looked at this game, 39 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:20,160 Speaker 2: it was like, you know, old haves die young, it 40 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:24,880 Speaker 2: was like bett Deniners like, Niners, Rams leak bett Deniners 41 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 2: like But and the public is all over the Rams. Uh, 42 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:33,640 Speaker 2: seventy eight percent of Betts seventy nine percent of money 43 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 2: tracked by us in the Action Network app coming in 44 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:40,080 Speaker 2: on the Rams here, So on what's your kind of 45 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 2: handicap on this game, given you know these teams aren't 46 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:45,400 Speaker 2: exactly the same ones as the one that you know 47 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 2: just used to kick the Rams ass every year with 48 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 2: Shanahan and in that run game, but not not completely 49 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:50,920 Speaker 2: different either. 50 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean forty diners have a revenge from a 51 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:55,280 Speaker 3: game earlier the season when they were up big and blew. 52 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 3: The game just happened a lot to them much and 53 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:01,440 Speaker 3: I think they were six and a half point favorites 54 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:04,800 Speaker 3: at LA not hug chome Field swings here in this game. 55 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:08,360 Speaker 3: But the Rams didn't have a couple or Nikua in 56 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 3: that game and they came back to win. Forty nine 57 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 3: Ers were obviously much healthier at the time this game. 58 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 3: I lean forty nine ers. It looks like they have 59 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 3: rallied and look they were getting so unlucky red zone 60 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:25,680 Speaker 3: close games, blown leads like you name it, and look 61 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:27,200 Speaker 3: who they lost to this year. I mean they've lost 62 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:33,360 Speaker 3: all like playoff teams for the most part, and so 63 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 3: it looks like they found something. I just I need 64 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 3: to see the injury report. So I leaned forty nine ers. 65 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:44,600 Speaker 3: I make this slightly over a field goal, but Trent Williams. 66 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 3: He didn't practice. I mean, they were able to do 67 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 3: whatever they wanted about him last week, but obviously would help. 68 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:54,600 Speaker 3: He's one of the best tackles Bosa and then who 69 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:56,960 Speaker 3: I kind of wanted to get your thoughts in this 70 00:03:57,000 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 3: because this is more your wheelhouse than mine, Gorinda. He 71 00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 3: doesn't go and he looked good last week. I thought 72 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 3: he ran well in that scheme, had better vision than 73 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 3: I've seen from him in the past. If he doesn't play, 74 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:16,640 Speaker 3: he's highly questionable. Says he wants to play. Then it's 75 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 3: down to Patrick Taylor, like how much you're down to 76 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:24,359 Speaker 3: your fourth string running back, how much of it his scheme? 77 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:27,680 Speaker 3: How much? Like what type of drop off can we expect? 78 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 3: Because this Rams defense is trending in the wrong direction, 79 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:34,159 Speaker 3: you can run on them. So and I thought party 80 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 3: looked good. I was worried about his health, but I 81 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:39,360 Speaker 3: thought he looked good last week. So I lean forty 82 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:43,240 Speaker 3: nine ers need more clarity on the injury report. And 83 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:46,400 Speaker 3: that Rams offensive explosion last week is kind of coming. 84 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:51,400 Speaker 3: Wrote that game up. They were like twenty three percent 85 00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 3: on third downs the previous three games. They were just 86 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:56,359 Speaker 3: running so bad on third downs. It's one of the 87 00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 3: things that I like to look at, like market perception 88 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 3: of certain teams over like a three to four game stretch. 89 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:05,720 Speaker 3: If an offense looks bad or offense looks really good. 90 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:08,479 Speaker 3: A lot of times it's laid down variants. And the 91 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:10,679 Speaker 3: Rams are running as bad as anybody on third downs 92 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 3: the previous three games, and then they were like they 93 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:15,599 Speaker 3: couldn't miss on a third or fourth down. That entire 94 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 3: game against that. 95 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:20,160 Speaker 2: Was just like amazing, gay Like that game and the 96 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:22,080 Speaker 2: Jets Dolphins game. I don't think I saw a stop 97 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 2: in the entire game, Like it's just like touchdown touchdown. 98 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:28,360 Speaker 3: First, I think the Rams Bills first game in NFL history, 99 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:32,359 Speaker 3: both team scored over forty with no turnovers. Stafford was 100 00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 3: like zero point seven to eighty p a per play, silly. 101 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:40,560 Speaker 3: So yeah, I don't think the offense will look as 102 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 3: good this week. But I just see more clarity on 103 00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 3: the injury report lean forty nine ers. I think the 104 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:49,280 Speaker 3: line has moved out for three, which is where I 105 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:52,279 Speaker 3: think it should be. I'm actually a little bit higher, 106 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 3: but nothing as of right now. 107 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really This Tory nine Ers team is just 108 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 2: tough for me to handicap because like there's certain things 109 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 2: like you know, okay, like I'll adjust for Trent Williams, 110 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:06,000 Speaker 2: but then who is it more? You know, comes in 111 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 2: and he's just doing the same thing and they don't 112 00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 2: miss a beat. And now, like you said, this Rams defense, 113 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:14,000 Speaker 2: it's not great. Uh, you know, it could definitely be had, 114 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:16,280 Speaker 2: especially and this forty nine Ers team kind of specializes 115 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:18,760 Speaker 2: in that. I don't know if I have the numbers 116 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:21,840 Speaker 2: in front of me, but I know, like the yeah 117 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 2: Shanahan versus McVeigh, I do have it. So it's it's 118 00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 2: ten and six now, so I think. 119 00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 3: He's ice covered three straight, oh. 120 00:06:29,040 --> 00:06:30,960 Speaker 2: Because he's a comeback and then I guess what the 121 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 2: two last year? Okay, but at one point, I mean 122 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 2: it was like nine and two or something crazy like that. 123 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:40,360 Speaker 2: So it has evened out a little bit. Yeah, three 124 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 2: straight for McVay, but Shanahan's still covering uh ten and 125 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 2: six sixty two point five percent by an average of 126 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 2: four point one points per game. So I mean, I 127 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:51,440 Speaker 2: don't know if you take anything from it now that 128 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:53,360 Speaker 2: it's been three three in a row, but I do 129 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 2: think this niner. I do wean niners as well, but 130 00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:57,800 Speaker 2: it's kind of I don't know if it's like a 131 00:06:57,839 --> 00:06:59,840 Speaker 2: bias though, is it like, is it just our bias, 132 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:02,920 Speaker 2: you know the Niners kind of man handling them earlier, 133 00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:06,600 Speaker 2: because I don't, I don't. I still don't believe this 134 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:08,520 Speaker 2: team is at full strength. I know what they did 135 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 2: to the Bears last week, but I like, they just 136 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 2: missed so many pieces and like, guys haven't practiced. It's 137 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 2: a short week, Like you know, guys haven't played together 138 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:19,880 Speaker 2: as much. So I mean, I feel like you could 139 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 2: see kind of the the floor of this team at 140 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:26,120 Speaker 2: any given moment as well. I mean, the Bears obviously 141 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 2: just proved not to be a serious football team, so 142 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 2: probably no play for me, all right. And it's regarding 143 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 2: the drop off from Grendo to Patrick Taylor, I think 144 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 2: they do. Patrick Taylor is more of a passing down back, 145 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 2: so I would think that the drop off would be 146 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 2: somewhat significant only because they probably would mix in like 147 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:51,120 Speaker 2: a te Shawn Vaughn or somebody like that, a ban 148 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 2: of Canda, you know, he's like, they would probably mix 149 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:56,239 Speaker 2: in more guys. Hebo hasn't been getting anything really going 150 00:07:56,600 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 2: on the ground, so but I mean, it's still the 151 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:01,920 Speaker 2: running game. It's not a major, but I do think 152 00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 2: I did like the way. 153 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 3: I'll be curious see what you and Kurner come up 154 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:09,240 Speaker 3: with for props, because with all the uncertainty there, there's 155 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 3: probably going to be some value to uncover. So keep 156 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:14,080 Speaker 3: an eye on the Action Network gap. 157 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:17,800 Speaker 2: All right, let's get into our week fifteen Sunday six 158 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:30,040 Speaker 2: pack Thursday for Action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack. 159 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:34,920 Speaker 2: All right, So, as I mentioned week fourteen, we were 160 00:08:34,920 --> 00:08:37,559 Speaker 2: two and four. You got the Rams to come through 161 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:40,840 Speaker 2: and the Giants on that two point conversion where you are. 162 00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 3: For my first pick of the week fifteen Sunday six pack, 163 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 3: I'm going with the Buffalo Bills plus two and a 164 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 3: half at the Detroit Lions. I haven't put this in 165 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:56,480 Speaker 3: the app yet. For what it's worth, I'm waiting to 166 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:58,199 Speaker 3: see if it gets three. There's no harm in waiting. 167 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:01,200 Speaker 3: Think it might might pay for a three here if 168 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 3: I can get it on the cheap. But I'll be 169 00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:05,960 Speaker 3: monitoring here, not throughout the rest of the week. But 170 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 3: still like it at plus two even it doesn't matter 171 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 3: for this contest because pushes don't matter. I've been waiting 172 00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:16,520 Speaker 3: for this spot to fade the Lions because I've been 173 00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 3: waiting for a fully healthy offense with a top tier 174 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:22,960 Speaker 3: quarterback to face this defense. They haven't faced one the 175 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 3: entire year. And this defense with their single, high aggressive 176 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:33,920 Speaker 3: man is ripe to get picked apart. And Josh Allen 177 00:09:33,960 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 3: indoors is the quarterback to do just that. I mean, 178 00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:40,480 Speaker 3: we talk about golf indoors. This Bill's offense indoors is 179 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:43,040 Speaker 3: a monster, and they should get Kincaid and Coleman back. 180 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, Colon practicing, Yeah, yep. 181 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:49,880 Speaker 3: Allen nine two one against the spread indoors. That includes 182 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:53,560 Speaker 3: the loss last week eighty one point, covering by ten 183 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:57,640 Speaker 3: points per game. Lions defense still dealing with injuries, and 184 00:09:57,679 --> 00:10:00,560 Speaker 3: then from a matchup perspective, Bills play it ton of zone. 185 00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:02,320 Speaker 3: Don't blitz. That's what you want to do against this 186 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 3: Lin's offense. Look, Lion's is gonna have success moving the ball. 187 00:10:05,640 --> 00:10:08,200 Speaker 3: They do every week. They're gonna have success running the ball. 188 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 3: Those run defense isn't particularly strong, but that's what you 189 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:15,959 Speaker 3: want to do. Ben, don't break here, get stopped in 190 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:18,160 Speaker 3: the red zone. And on the other side the lines 191 00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:21,840 Speaker 3: with this man coverage, Allen, they struggle with mobile quarterbacks. 192 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 3: Allen's gonna be able to use his legs, is gonna 193 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:26,600 Speaker 3: be able to beat him downfield. There's gonna be explosive 194 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:28,319 Speaker 3: plays galore for this Bill's offense. 195 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 2: Uh. 196 00:10:29,679 --> 00:10:32,040 Speaker 3: And I just think this is the peak of the 197 00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 3: market on the lines with one loss on the year, 198 00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:39,560 Speaker 3: Like like I said, which what elite quarterback have they faced? 199 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:44,160 Speaker 3: This year? And I mean, and then you gotta remember 200 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 3: they're six to one against the spread and one possession games. 201 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:49,320 Speaker 3: I think they're just they have their their blowout wins 202 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:51,199 Speaker 3: stick out in everyone's mind. They beat they blew out 203 00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 3: Mac Jones, Mason Rudolph, and Anthony richardson. So and with 204 00:10:56,679 --> 00:11:00,640 Speaker 3: the the defensive injuries, the matchup for both teams, I 205 00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:02,200 Speaker 3: think they're goulnable here. I think this is a true 206 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 3: coin flip game. Last team with the ball. I'll happily 207 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 3: take the points here. I think the Bills are going 208 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:10,160 Speaker 3: to win. That's my gut feel. Alan By the way, 209 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:12,400 Speaker 3: as an underdog or favorite of less than three points 210 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 3: twenty seven, fourteen and two against the spread, sixty six percent, 211 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:18,320 Speaker 3: covering by five points per game eighteen eight and two 212 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:23,320 Speaker 3: away from home in that situation near seventy percent, and 213 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:25,719 Speaker 3: then just to speak to like, this, is this the 214 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:27,800 Speaker 3: time you want to fade these teams that are you 215 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:30,120 Speaker 3: know of won two losses one or two losses this 216 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:32,720 Speaker 3: late in the year. Teams are the win percentage north 217 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:36,040 Speaker 3: of ninety percent in the month of December twenty one 218 00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:39,439 Speaker 3: forty eight and two against the spread since two thousand 219 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:42,439 Speaker 3: and thirty thirty percent, failing the cover by three and 220 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:44,920 Speaker 3: a half points per game. Teams averaging more than twenty 221 00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:46,520 Speaker 3: eight points per game with a win percentage of over 222 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 3: ninety percent in the month of December eight thirty one 223 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:52,840 Speaker 3: and two twenty and a half percent against the spread. 224 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:56,040 Speaker 3: I love this matchup for the Bills offense. I like 225 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:58,240 Speaker 3: it for the defense. I think goff is going to 226 00:11:58,280 --> 00:12:02,319 Speaker 3: make a mistake or two. And uh, I don't see 227 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 3: this line of Lions defense getting any stops. Give me 228 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:10,400 Speaker 3: Buffalo on the road to bounce back after that loss 229 00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:10,960 Speaker 3: last week. 230 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:16,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting too, because like if if the Super 231 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:20,960 Speaker 2: Bowl was Lions Bills, wouldn't you make the Bills a 232 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:25,360 Speaker 2: slight favor just because of the quarterback play? Because because 233 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 2: it's like they both have just these really good teams 234 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 2: sound all around, but one quarterback. No, I'm not saying 235 00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 2: the market, I'm saying like you personal yeah, yeah, yeah, 236 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:39,200 Speaker 2: I just came a coin flip. So yeah, and and 237 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 2: the Lions also have defensive injuries. You have to keep 238 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 2: in mind the Bills could be down. Douglas he's having 239 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 2: he's he's having a down year, which matters some. But 240 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:51,280 Speaker 2: the lines are extremely beat up. 241 00:12:51,559 --> 00:12:55,400 Speaker 3: And uh, but I just like the schematic matchup as well. 242 00:12:55,679 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 3: And yeah, I think I think the Bills right now 243 00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:02,599 Speaker 3: are the better team. 244 00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:04,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, Josh Allen is a dog. It's not 245 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 2: really even a you know, it's not even that hard. 246 00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:10,760 Speaker 2: It's not harder that hard of itself. Really, it's you know, 247 00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:13,559 Speaker 2: how often do you get Josh Allen as a dog? 248 00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:17,439 Speaker 3: And those are better they're better an indoor they're a 249 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:18,520 Speaker 3: better indoor team. 250 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:22,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, they haven't and they really haven't been playing 251 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:26,360 Speaker 2: with their full deck. They've been they're very conservatives. 252 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:28,280 Speaker 3: Every week, and they haven't had their. 253 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:31,160 Speaker 2: Master receivers, Like talking about a hard projection, it's like 254 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:34,400 Speaker 2: it just just allocating the snaps to like because if 255 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:37,080 Speaker 2: Cooper hasn't done above like sixty five percent yet, like 256 00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:39,600 Speaker 2: they still have got fourteen targets. I think last week 257 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:42,480 Speaker 2: or something ridiculous. He was targeted on fourteen of twenty 258 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:44,840 Speaker 2: six routes still hasn't played a snap rate like over 259 00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:48,040 Speaker 2: in the into the seventies. Yet It's just talk about 260 00:13:48,040 --> 00:13:51,400 Speaker 2: a sleeping giant Buffalo. That's the team that you want 261 00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 2: to beat Detroit because they can do what Detroit does, 262 00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:58,559 Speaker 2: but their quarterback can move better and he's not Jalen Hurts. 263 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:03,640 Speaker 2: That brings me to my first picking, the second overall 264 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:07,840 Speaker 2: of the week, fifteen Sunday six pack. Don't the Pittsburgh 265 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:12,520 Speaker 2: Steelers plus five and a half at the Philadelphia Eagles. 266 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 2: Haven't bet this yet. I don't think it'll get to six, 267 00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 2: but it's at five and a half, so might as 268 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 2: well hold out. So I thought I wanted to feade 269 00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:24,640 Speaker 2: the Steelers, and I still do in the grand scheme 270 00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 2: of things. But I mean this Eagles team. Remember last year, 271 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 2: completely different coordinator, completely different offense. They went ten to one, 272 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 2: right they so they eleven games and then all all 273 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:41,080 Speaker 2: hell breaks lose. This year they go nine and two 274 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 2: the tenth games against Baltimore and they win it. So 275 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:47,040 Speaker 2: it's like no problem. But if you look deeper, a 276 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 2: little shaky, you know they were out gained three seventy 277 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:53,960 Speaker 2: two to two fifty two. Couple of missfield goals missed 278 00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:57,080 Speaker 2: two points for the Ravens, called it unlucky win, all right, 279 00:14:57,160 --> 00:14:59,520 Speaker 2: And they go to and they host Carolina and they 280 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:03,360 Speaker 2: get out the Gang and they only win because Carolina 281 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:06,600 Speaker 2: drops up a pass like their rookie receiver dropped like 282 00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:10,840 Speaker 2: the his fifth pass of the game. I think Philadelphia 283 00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:14,880 Speaker 2: against this Pittsburgh defense has issues. And I know people 284 00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:17,520 Speaker 2: are gonna kind of be scared off because George Pickens 285 00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:19,920 Speaker 2: isn't gonna play, which I don't expect them to. But 286 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:23,480 Speaker 2: this Pittsburgh team, remember this week, they have time to 287 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:26,560 Speaker 2: prepare for Pickens being out. They didn't have that last week. 288 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:28,800 Speaker 2: And if there's one thing, Arthur Smith this is actually 289 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:31,840 Speaker 2: good at, it's building an offense around and feeding like 290 00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 2: your non star players and getting them and getting production 291 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:36,880 Speaker 2: out of them. Like remember everyone was mad in Fantasy 292 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 2: because he wasn't feeding Beejihn. He wasn't feeding Pitts all 293 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:41,960 Speaker 2: those guys. So I'm actually not as worried about the 294 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:45,560 Speaker 2: the Steeer offense. I know they came out really slow 295 00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:48,360 Speaker 2: against Cleveland, but I think that Pickens, you know, news 296 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:50,800 Speaker 2: hit him on a Friday that already have the install 297 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 2: It's really tough. It's kind of like a starting quarterback 298 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:55,640 Speaker 2: who gets like last second, you know, put into the lineup. 299 00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 2: So you know, they kind of they made it work. 300 00:15:57,840 --> 00:15:59,720 Speaker 2: I thought Jayalen Warren looked good out there. They still 301 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:02,080 Speaker 2: have a bunch of restiverers. They have four tight ends 302 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:04,720 Speaker 2: that they can use. So I just really don't think 303 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 2: this Eagle offense is in the right state yet again. 304 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 2: I think that they're kind of protecting Jalen Hurts. And obviously, 305 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 2: you know, Barkley's amazing. But the Steelers top five and 306 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:26,240 Speaker 2: adjusted lineyards, top five in second level yards allowed, number 307 00:16:26,240 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 2: eight in stuff rate, So they they're pretty good against 308 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:32,280 Speaker 2: the run out of the backfield. And what are we 309 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 2: always talking about with this steear d. They're really good 310 00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 2: against mobile quarterbacks. They played Lamar twice a year. You know, 311 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:42,680 Speaker 2: Gayden Daniels in that matchup, seventeen of thirty four, fifty 312 00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:45,600 Speaker 2: percent completion when he was completing like seventy eighty every game. 313 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:49,880 Speaker 2: Five yards rushing Lamar Jackson sixteen of thirty three. This 314 00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 2: guy's playing like MVP. Barely misses a pass, can't complete 315 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:56,400 Speaker 2: half against the Steelers only four carries the whole game 316 00:16:56,840 --> 00:17:00,280 Speaker 2: forty six yards, one touchdown, one pick, So going to 317 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:03,920 Speaker 2: be ugly. But Jalen Hurts was pressured forty six percent 318 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:06,920 Speaker 2: of the time, like he's he's getting pressured a ton 319 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:09,879 Speaker 2: even with that line, and he's not good under pressure, 320 00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:13,040 Speaker 2: just five point one yards per attempt, forty six percent, 321 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 2: completion rate of forty seven PFF grade, which is thirty fourth. 322 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:19,080 Speaker 2: So I just think the Steeler defense that doesn't even 323 00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:21,600 Speaker 2: need to really blitz to get pressure is going to 324 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:24,880 Speaker 2: cause a lot of problems for this offense. And when 325 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 2: when ugly, the offense will find a way to get 326 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:30,040 Speaker 2: it done. I mean, without picking, you're kind of half 327 00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:32,639 Speaker 2: of the Eagles strength on defense is kind of wasted anyway. 328 00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:36,760 Speaker 2: So and Carolina with Tobby Tremble and the gatt was 329 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:38,680 Speaker 2: you know, going up and down the field. So and 330 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:42,960 Speaker 2: Wilson is the lowest turnover worthy throw rate. So, you know, 331 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:45,719 Speaker 2: Pittsburgh here good bet to win the you know, at 332 00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 2: least a decent bet to win the turnover battle, which 333 00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:50,800 Speaker 2: that just doesn't happen against Philadelphia. That's that's how Philadelphie's 334 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:53,359 Speaker 2: been cruising, even with some you know clear, you know 335 00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:57,200 Speaker 2: under the surface level, you know issues on their offense. 336 00:17:57,240 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 2: So give me the Steelers plus five and a half. Here, 337 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 2: tom Win is a dog sixty two and thirty one 338 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 2: sixty seven percent uh five and oh this season against 339 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:08,800 Speaker 2: the spread against the NFC as a dog seventeen to 340 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 2: nine sixty five percent as a dog against the team 341 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:14,560 Speaker 2: with a better record thirty one and eleven seventy four 342 00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:17,320 Speaker 2: percent against the spread as a dog by between a 343 00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 2: field goal and a touchdown AKA three to seven points 344 00:18:20,119 --> 00:18:22,719 Speaker 2: thirty six and fourteen seventy two percent. 345 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:24,919 Speaker 3: I don't think won all five games. Is an underdog 346 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:25,280 Speaker 3: this year. 347 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:27,879 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, they'll probably be my money my dog too. 348 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:30,760 Speaker 2: I was gonna do a different team. But yeah, I 349 00:18:30,800 --> 00:18:33,080 Speaker 2: just I just I don't. I think there's there's something 350 00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 2: to this with it because I'm watching that over and 351 00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:38,399 Speaker 2: over and it's it's I mean, at one point, it's 352 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 2: hurt slid like into a sack, like he's just he's 353 00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:45,320 Speaker 2: got no confidence right now in or he doesn't know 354 00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 2: what's going like he's not pro, he's not processing the 355 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 2: whole field as he's really never had, as he's never 356 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:54,240 Speaker 2: really has. But the Steelers are like a defense who 357 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:56,800 Speaker 2: can actually exploit it because you have Highsmith's back, you 358 00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:59,119 Speaker 2: have uh why you have Hayward, Like those guys are 359 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 2: gonna get after it. And they don't even need some boys, 360 00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:03,480 Speaker 2: so they're gonna have guys you know back in coverage 361 00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:07,360 Speaker 2: as well. So on the surface. Yet it's tough without pickings. 362 00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:10,840 Speaker 2: But Russell Wilson has been playing really well, Art Smith 363 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:12,920 Speaker 2: and coaching really well. I think the Steers at least 364 00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:14,119 Speaker 2: get the cover, if not the win. 365 00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:17,000 Speaker 3: I'll spoil my total. I don't really have a feel 366 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 3: on the side I'm gonna go under which kind of 367 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:21,600 Speaker 3: aligns with the dog. Usually these Tomlin spots go under 368 00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:23,680 Speaker 3: as well, a guy. Because I am worried about the 369 00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 3: Steelers offense, I get some of your points, but they've 370 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:29,480 Speaker 3: been Ross has been such a deep ball merchant. I 371 00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:31,600 Speaker 3: mean last week the offense did not look great without 372 00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 3: the deep ball, and the Eagles are the number one 373 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:38,439 Speaker 3: defense in the NFL against deep throws. But I do 374 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:41,160 Speaker 3: think that the Steelers defense will have success. They can 375 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 3: battle with Barkley. Neither of these teams are particularly fast. 376 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:48,000 Speaker 3: I think both are gonna run a ton. Clock will 377 00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:50,760 Speaker 3: be bleeding. You'll have you know, if the Eagles get up, 378 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:54,600 Speaker 3: they're so good at just running the game away late 379 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:57,199 Speaker 3: with like an eight to nine minute drive. And then 380 00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 3: you have the Steelers. Tom and in a dog Spot's 381 00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 3: gonna play conservative. He's gonna lean on his special teams, 382 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:06,080 Speaker 3: he's gonna lean on his defense, playfield position. I think 383 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:08,320 Speaker 3: this profiles is a lower scoring game, so I'll spoil 384 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:11,360 Speaker 3: my total. I'd like under forty two and a half, 385 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:15,520 Speaker 3: all right for my second pick and the third overall 386 00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 3: of the week fifteen Sunday six pack, I'm going with 387 00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:20,560 Speaker 3: the Carolina Panthers minus two and a half, the minus 388 00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:21,960 Speaker 3: two and a half minus one twenty out there, I'd go 389 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:23,840 Speaker 3: up to the minus one twenty five. I need under 390 00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:26,480 Speaker 3: three here. Even if it's up to minus one twenty five. 391 00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:31,520 Speaker 3: Panthers quietly covered five in a row. This team's playing 392 00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 3: really well. There's so many bottom feeders in the NFL 393 00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:36,720 Speaker 3: this year, more than I can remember. This is one 394 00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:39,520 Speaker 3: that you can trust that looks just watch them. They're 395 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,920 Speaker 3: still trying, they're still having fun. I mean, the other 396 00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:45,160 Speaker 3: teams are trying, but they're just so bad. This team 397 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:48,600 Speaker 3: looks like they're enjoying themselves out there I mean, if 398 00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:50,439 Speaker 3: you think about it, over the last three weeks, they 399 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:52,879 Speaker 3: should have beat the Bucks, they drop pass away from 400 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,160 Speaker 3: beating the Eagles, and they lose in the last second 401 00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 3: against the Chiefs. Five and zer against the spread over 402 00:20:57,840 --> 00:20:59,640 Speaker 3: the past five I still think they're a bit undervalue. 403 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:01,959 Speaker 3: It's the three three and a half there that's no 404 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 3: longer the case. Three obviously is a huge number, but 405 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:07,720 Speaker 3: this is a horrible spot for the Cowboys. Short week 406 00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:10,119 Speaker 3: on the road after your season was ended, like they 407 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 3: had an outside playoff shot, lose that game and heartbreaking fashion, 408 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:15,919 Speaker 3: like just look at the way they walked off the field. 409 00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:17,880 Speaker 3: Now in a short week, you're going on the road 410 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:21,760 Speaker 3: to play Carolina, I could see them being super flat. 411 00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:24,400 Speaker 3: Cowboys also can't really run the ball. Been a bit 412 00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:25,680 Speaker 3: better of it of late. 413 00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:27,919 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll give them credit for that. I think I 414 00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:29,960 Speaker 2: think they found something in the kid down. 415 00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:35,280 Speaker 3: They've played the Giants, they played the Giants, the Bengals 416 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:39,639 Speaker 3: like just they've played really bad defense. No, the Panthers 417 00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:42,480 Speaker 3: aren't a good defense either. The Cowboys might have success running, 418 00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:45,960 Speaker 3: but it's not an elite rush offense. And the Panthers 419 00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 3: what they make you do is efficiently pass the ball 420 00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 3: down the field through the air, and Dallas is not that. 421 00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:54,840 Speaker 3: Right now, Rush have been the worst quarterback in the 422 00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:58,440 Speaker 3: league since taking over fortieth of fortieth fortieth of forty 423 00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:01,679 Speaker 3: on PFF he has seven touchdowns the three interceptions, but 424 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:03,879 Speaker 3: three big time throws to eight turn of worthy plays. 425 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:06,879 Speaker 3: There's been drop picks. He's going to throw, give the 426 00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 3: ball away into the Carolina zones. I can almost guarantee 427 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,159 Speaker 3: you that there's going to be a pick here, and 428 00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:17,560 Speaker 3: then just look look at EPA plus completion percentage over expectations. 429 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:21,399 Speaker 3: Since Rush took over Bryce Young's eighteen, he's basically been 430 00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:25,240 Speaker 3: Baker Mayfield plus point zero eight eight. Rush is thirty 431 00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:29,680 Speaker 3: first out of thirty two qualified quarterbacks negative point zero 432 00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:32,440 Speaker 3: three zero. The only one worse is Drew Lock negative 433 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:35,520 Speaker 3: point zero three four. He's basically been doing the only 434 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,000 Speaker 3: two that are in the negative, so it's basically he's 435 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:42,960 Speaker 3: basically Drew Lock Dallas d Their strength is pressure in 436 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,440 Speaker 3: the quarterback well. Carolina has one of the best pass 437 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:48,119 Speaker 3: protecting offensive lines in the NFL, and Young has been 438 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:52,040 Speaker 3: very good under pressure when teams have got it since 439 00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:54,600 Speaker 3: he came back. Panthers should all sp able to move 440 00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:56,639 Speaker 3: the ball on the ground. Should own the line of 441 00:22:56,640 --> 00:23:00,359 Speaker 3: scrimmage here against this Cowboys run dy Cowboys also probably 442 00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:03,560 Speaker 3: without bebe already lost Zack Martin. You got to reshuffle 443 00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:06,320 Speaker 3: the interior the offensive line bb cancussion on a short 444 00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 3: week overshown done as well. This is the horrible spot Panthers. 445 00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:14,680 Speaker 3: I think are playing really well and their defense is 446 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:17,920 Speaker 3: still undervalued. I mean, look at the offenses they played 447 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:19,320 Speaker 3: over the past three weeks, and they've had a shot 448 00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:21,240 Speaker 3: to win all three games. This is a big step 449 00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:24,359 Speaker 3: down in class. And because they're just healthier they were 450 00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 3: so ravaged by injury earlier in the year. And Bryce 451 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:31,280 Speaker 3: Young's playing confidence, he's playing well, and I have the 452 00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:34,359 Speaker 3: supremely I can't believe' about to say this, but the 453 00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 3: sup exponentially superior quarterback in this matchup with Bryce Young 454 00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,760 Speaker 3: versus Cooper Rush at home in a good spot, I 455 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,399 Speaker 3: think the Panthers get to win here. Give me careful, yeah, 456 00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:48,800 Speaker 3: like I would like those time favored in thirty four games. 457 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:50,960 Speaker 2: By the way, I was about to say, the most 458 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:53,240 Speaker 2: ironic thing about all of this is they go like 459 00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:55,240 Speaker 2: five zero against the spread and now you're laying points 460 00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:58,159 Speaker 2: with the finally you've come back come back with them. 461 00:23:58,200 --> 00:23:59,359 Speaker 2: I think you've had them a couple of times in 462 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:02,440 Speaker 2: that span. But I was gonna say about Cooper Rush, 463 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 2: like I totally agree. I was writing up the our 464 00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:12,680 Speaker 2: Monday night preview Bengals Cowboys, and I'm you know, I'm 465 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:15,600 Speaker 2: on the under some I'm like, okay, like nobody's gonna 466 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:18,040 Speaker 2: want a better Bengals under. Like they just they went 467 00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:20,600 Speaker 2: like sixty points like five games in a row. It 468 00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:23,480 Speaker 2: was just ridiculous. And I'm like, oh, wait a minute. 469 00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:25,359 Speaker 2: I just started looking at all these Cooper Rush stats 470 00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:27,600 Speaker 2: and I'm like, huh, I could just throw these out 471 00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,080 Speaker 2: there and this will be convincing. And so that's what 472 00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:32,359 Speaker 2: I ended up doing. And uh, you know, lo and 473 00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:35,040 Speaker 2: behold he throws what a picking the red zone, cancels 474 00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:37,840 Speaker 2: out some points, and uh it cashes by two and 475 00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:40,720 Speaker 2: a half. So yeah, Cooper Rush not not very good. 476 00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:42,840 Speaker 2: I know, I think we were on them at least. 477 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:46,320 Speaker 2: I was, uh, what was that game against Washington? You know, 478 00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,560 Speaker 2: can be confident at times, but just so well, like 479 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:52,960 Speaker 2: he's not doing anything downfield, he's not act just getting rid. 480 00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:53,320 Speaker 3: Of the ball. 481 00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:55,919 Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, so yeah, the Panthers don't come out 482 00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:57,080 Speaker 2: without the accuracy. Yeah. 483 00:24:57,160 --> 00:25:00,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, the Panthers don't get pressure, so who cares. He's 484 00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:02,640 Speaker 3: just dropping back and then he's gonna throw. He's gonna 485 00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:05,440 Speaker 3: make mistakes into the zone. And that's uh. And I 486 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:07,240 Speaker 3: think the Panthers all success in the ground to set 487 00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:11,440 Speaker 3: up everything else for uh. For Young's playing really well 488 00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:11,800 Speaker 3: right now. 489 00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:14,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, No, Young looks like a different quarterback if you 490 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:18,399 Speaker 2: haven't seen him, and you know, like you just remember 491 00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:20,200 Speaker 2: the old Bryce and you might want to go throw 492 00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:23,200 Speaker 2: on some so quick YouTube highlights of the last whatever 493 00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:25,000 Speaker 2: was it four or five weeks now since he came back, 494 00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,600 Speaker 2: really the last three games, especially though he's he's throwing 495 00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:29,800 Speaker 2: just some dimes, he's poised. 496 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,360 Speaker 3: Five big time throw rate over the past four weeks. 497 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:34,760 Speaker 2: Completing throws in the face of pressure. Like, I mean, 498 00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:36,240 Speaker 2: I didn't know. I didn't know if we'd ever see that, 499 00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,080 Speaker 2: just given his his stature. So yeah, Bryce hung is 500 00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:39,919 Speaker 2: his ball. 501 00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:44,080 Speaker 3: Footwork, that's like that was yeah. And then he's also confident, 502 00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:47,480 Speaker 3: like he was not confident before and he just needed 503 00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,600 Speaker 3: some momentum because he was just he would just take it. 504 00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:53,359 Speaker 3: He would just tuck it. Yeah, in the past, and 505 00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:55,240 Speaker 3: now he has some confidence back there, and he's going 506 00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:58,080 Speaker 3: up against the Dallas defense that can be had many ways. 507 00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:00,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'm playing it out. I was like 508 00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:02,800 Speaker 2: half joking, but I remember saying in a couple of 509 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,399 Speaker 2: weeks ago, it's like Bryce sends out there smiling, He's 510 00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:08,840 Speaker 2: like he's got confidence. Now he's getting mad at his 511 00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:10,760 Speaker 2: teammates like he didn't. He didn't have the confidence to 512 00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:14,399 Speaker 2: yell at his teammates before. Yeah. I don't know if I'm 513 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,240 Speaker 2: gonna join you. Yeah, I just I still hate the 514 00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:19,199 Speaker 2: idea of laying points with the Panthers, but they are 515 00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:21,200 Speaker 2: the better team here. They are. They end there at. 516 00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:23,240 Speaker 3: Home, and it's a terrible spot for Dallas. I don't 517 00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:23,960 Speaker 3: know if they show. 518 00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:29,680 Speaker 2: Up for my second pick and the fourth overall of 519 00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:35,680 Speaker 2: the week, fifteen Sunday six pack, Oh boy, going right 520 00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:39,560 Speaker 2: back to him, this is gonna be a sweat. But 521 00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:43,360 Speaker 2: the Cleveland Browns plus four and a half at home 522 00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:45,640 Speaker 2: against the Kansas City Chiefs. This is another one. Let's 523 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:47,680 Speaker 2: see where the line ends up. It's actually been coming 524 00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:50,480 Speaker 2: down surprisingly. I guess the books took some sharp money 525 00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:53,919 Speaker 2: on the Browns. But I gotta go right back to 526 00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:58,080 Speaker 2: him here because number one, I thought they got pretty 527 00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:01,879 Speaker 2: unlucky in that in that Pittsburgh game. Just you know, 528 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:04,560 Speaker 2: I mean they it's not just the turnals. I mean 529 00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:08,159 Speaker 2: they just missed some easy field goals and then new 530 00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:10,520 Speaker 2: kickers at least, yeah, they could have. 531 00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:12,280 Speaker 3: I'm going to be here. I'm gonna be at this game. 532 00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:15,359 Speaker 2: By the way, Oh do dough. This is like money. 533 00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:16,600 Speaker 3: And I bet the Browns they would have been one 534 00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:17,159 Speaker 3: of my three. 535 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:20,000 Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, yes, okay, who are on the same page. 536 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:23,600 Speaker 2: I mean it's gonna be It's ugly. But they just 537 00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:26,800 Speaker 2: says will win by two. Yeah, okay, yeah, yeah, Chiefs 538 00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:30,120 Speaker 2: minus eleven. Against the Panthers, they win by three minus thirteen. 539 00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,160 Speaker 2: I think it might have been more than that. Against 540 00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:34,760 Speaker 2: the Raiders, they win by two minus four. Against the 541 00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:37,000 Speaker 2: Chargers last week they win by two. That's their last 542 00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:40,639 Speaker 2: three games. Uh. And then but there's actually there's some 543 00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:43,640 Speaker 2: things I really like about this matchup. First of all, 544 00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:47,920 Speaker 2: you mentioned Humphries not practicing hamstring issue. He gave five 545 00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,320 Speaker 2: pressures on forty four snaps. That's an eleven point three 546 00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:52,919 Speaker 2: percent pressure rate for a starting tackle. You want that 547 00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:56,640 Speaker 2: to be around five percent tops five to six. Yeah, Bat, 548 00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,399 Speaker 2: your replacement level tackles, that's when you're getting to the 549 00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:01,679 Speaker 2: nine to ten percent, right, So he's he's already he 550 00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:05,040 Speaker 2: was already playing, like you said, very poor, rusty. Whatever 551 00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:09,320 Speaker 2: Wyrian Morris comes in, he's eight pressures on forty eight 552 00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:12,760 Speaker 2: snaps last week, sixteen point seven percent. That is he's dreadful. 553 00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:15,439 Speaker 2: That's that's not like that level of the guy on 554 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:17,600 Speaker 2: the Eagles earlier this year? Was it Fred Johnson? I 555 00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:19,480 Speaker 2: think it was like that's doin And that was. 556 00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:21,200 Speaker 3: The premise of my hand to Kapain and Chief. I 557 00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:23,639 Speaker 3: thought Humphries would help fix that is because yeah, they're 558 00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:26,400 Speaker 3: the pressure they allowed off the edge craters their entire offense. 559 00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:29,439 Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, to that point you got to go, 560 00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:31,639 Speaker 2: what was it week one? I think when they had 561 00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:35,879 Speaker 2: they tried out the Kingsley Suamataia, the rookie, and they 562 00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:37,600 Speaker 2: might have to trot him back out there if things 563 00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:39,720 Speaker 2: don't work out, because I mean they're just out of 564 00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:42,120 Speaker 2: options at this point. They're just grasping for straws. And 565 00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:44,440 Speaker 2: he gave up. Uh, he's giving up a twelve percent 566 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:46,479 Speaker 2: pressure rate this year was just you know, just like 567 00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,000 Speaker 2: all it's just all abysmal. And on top of that, 568 00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:52,160 Speaker 2: Dylan still got Myles Garrett there. I think he forced 569 00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:54,440 Speaker 2: a fumble last week, if I'm not mistaken, So he's 570 00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:57,080 Speaker 2: still playing hard, fine off the edge. But y' also 571 00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:59,200 Speaker 2: have this Cleveland defense. You mentioned in your cap of 572 00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:02,200 Speaker 2: the game last week on Sunday Night that one of 573 00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:04,680 Speaker 2: the reasons you like the Chiefs because the Chargers tend 574 00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:07,400 Speaker 2: to be a very zone heavy defense, and Mahomes can 575 00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:09,920 Speaker 2: carve that up well. Against man, it's a little more 576 00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:12,400 Speaker 2: you know, touch and go, especially with all the pressure. 577 00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:15,600 Speaker 2: And Cleveland plays the fourth most man. They played the 578 00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:18,560 Speaker 2: most man of any team last week, and they did 579 00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:21,240 Speaker 2: hold Russ Wilson to a season well one fifty eight 580 00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:24,960 Speaker 2: yards passing six point one per attempt, Mahomes seven point 581 00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:29,160 Speaker 2: four yards per attempt against zone six point four versus man, 582 00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,640 Speaker 2: uh point one five epa per dropback versus own point 583 00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:36,240 Speaker 2: one two versus man. So he takes a bit of 584 00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:38,200 Speaker 2: a hit, and like you know, Hopkins more of a 585 00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:41,400 Speaker 2: zone beater, Kelsey more of a zone beater. You're probably 586 00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:44,200 Speaker 2: gonna have to you know, target Worthy a ton, and 587 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:45,800 Speaker 2: you know he's still a little green. 588 00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:50,120 Speaker 3: So explosiveness that's been the Brown's biggest issue on defense. 589 00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:52,680 Speaker 3: And yeah, I mean worthy. It's not I'm not going 590 00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:54,840 Speaker 3: to disrespect worthy like that. He's no, I'm just saying 591 00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:59,760 Speaker 3: their profile statistically, if you look at their explosiveness, they're 592 00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:04,400 Speaker 3: like dead last and rushing explosiveness, passing explosiveness. So it's 593 00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:06,440 Speaker 3: not like this is I mean they have the potential. 594 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:10,680 Speaker 3: Uh yeah, but part of that is that Mahomes doesn't. 595 00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:14,680 Speaker 3: He can't get time because it's the pocket is collapsing 596 00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:19,480 Speaker 3: within five seconds, within two seconds every single and now 597 00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:21,080 Speaker 3: you're going up against the Browns team that can get 598 00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:22,560 Speaker 3: pressure as well as any. 599 00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:26,600 Speaker 2: Last week, but despite blitzing only twenty four percent at 600 00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:28,760 Speaker 2: the time, they got pressure forty five percent of the 601 00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:30,360 Speaker 2: time last week. I mean one. But I think the 602 00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:32,760 Speaker 2: Hanson on red zone was like the story of his games. 603 00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:35,800 Speaker 2: The Browns defense, they weren't they weren't allowing anything. So 604 00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:40,640 Speaker 2: they're they're peable showing up. Uh just need like one 605 00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:43,560 Speaker 2: last day, jamis, just don't throw a pick on the screen, bro, 606 00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:46,720 Speaker 2: like the screen. I know you said delivering from pick sixes, 607 00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:49,560 Speaker 2: you didn't throw pick six Like, come on, you can't 608 00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:53,560 Speaker 2: be throwing picks on screens like that's unacceptable. Yeah, that's the. 609 00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:54,640 Speaker 3: Only thing I worry about here. 610 00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:57,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, he's gonna throw one. Oh he's like so 611 00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,760 Speaker 2: I don't know if, but the Giants past. 612 00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:03,120 Speaker 3: The is completely broken and then we have another injury 613 00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:06,880 Speaker 3: in the secondary. I mean, yeah, couldn't the Charters had 614 00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:11,960 Speaker 3: more opportunities downfield last week that they missed and they 615 00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:13,520 Speaker 3: were without McConkie. 616 00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:16,240 Speaker 2: Stone smart maybe Stone smart. 617 00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:20,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, Disley gets hurt and they were still moving the 618 00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,920 Speaker 3: ball through the air. There's guys wide open, there's coverage 619 00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:27,800 Speaker 3: bus this like Connor shouldn't be in the nickel Like, yeah. 620 00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:29,280 Speaker 2: He's he's got, he's got. He's given up twenty of 621 00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:32,239 Speaker 2: twenty three last four games and and two penalties and 622 00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:34,840 Speaker 2: it touched like he's just in that when the bigger 623 00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:36,880 Speaker 2: role is is not they're targeting him like. 624 00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:39,800 Speaker 3: This pasty has been horrendous since Watson went down. I 625 00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:40,800 Speaker 3: mean it's a problem. 626 00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:45,680 Speaker 2: And yeah, the Jaywen Watson. That is just in case 627 00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:49,280 Speaker 2: people are confused about the Browns d Deshaun not not DeShawn, 628 00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:51,240 Speaker 2: but Jalen on the Chiefs the cornerback. 629 00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:58,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, and now you have uh who what Josh Williams 630 00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:02,479 Speaker 3: went down like you're you're you're in like Nazi Johnson 631 00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:03,920 Speaker 3: is just horrendous. 632 00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:06,960 Speaker 2: Judy is playing like Judy is. I mean he needs 633 00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,640 Speaker 2: to go stay with up to Steve Smith because he is. 634 00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:12,520 Speaker 2: He's just lighting it up this year. Yeah. 635 00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:14,960 Speaker 3: My biggest thing is the Browns are like an effort team. 636 00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:19,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, and again, so like the way that their. 637 00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:22,560 Speaker 3: Schedule is, like they have games where their tackling is 638 00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:24,920 Speaker 3: so bad, and that's where you see like effort and 639 00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:27,600 Speaker 3: care show up. If you look at like their best 640 00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:29,640 Speaker 3: games this year after they you know, were out of 641 00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:35,720 Speaker 3: it with Watson, like when they when they hosted Baltimore 642 00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:41,240 Speaker 3: in one, when they hosted Pittsburgh in one. You know, 643 00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:45,440 Speaker 3: when they went to Philly, I thought the effort was there. 644 00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:52,880 Speaker 3: Now you're getting the one lost Chiefs at home this 645 00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,360 Speaker 3: this will be an effort game. I think they'll show up. 646 00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:59,760 Speaker 2: I think you mentioned kind of similar uh trends here, 647 00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:03,760 Speaker 2: but December dogs in December against favorites that have won 648 00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:06,360 Speaker 2: at least nine of their last ten games. Chiefs have 649 00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:09,960 Speaker 2: sixty seven and forty two. Are the dogs against those 650 00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:12,520 Speaker 2: teams sixty one percent against the spread over the last 651 00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:16,800 Speaker 2: two decades. December underdogs against favorites with a winning percentage 652 00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:18,800 Speaker 2: of eighty five percent or more fifty seven to twenty 653 00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:20,360 Speaker 2: nine and two. I think that was kind of the 654 00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:24,120 Speaker 2: one you had. And then Kansas City has a favorite 655 00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:27,040 Speaker 2: of more than a field goal with Patrick Mahomes since 656 00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:30,880 Speaker 2: November of twenty twenty, just nineteen thirty seven and two 657 00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:35,680 Speaker 2: against the spread thirty four percent, including one seven with 658 00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:38,200 Speaker 2: one and seven with one push this year, so twelve 659 00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:41,480 Speaker 2: percent this year. And on top of all that is 660 00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:43,280 Speaker 2: the luck rankings game for the second week in a 661 00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:46,720 Speaker 2: road Cleveland still bottom five or twenty ninth, so the 662 00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:49,840 Speaker 2: fourth unluckiest in our luck rankings. Kansas City is the 663 00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:53,600 Speaker 2: luckiest team obviously, and so that's a gap of twenty 664 00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:58,240 Speaker 2: eight anything twenty four or higher one twenty eight, seventy 665 00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:01,760 Speaker 2: six and six sixty two zero point four percent against 666 00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:06,120 Speaker 2: the closing line since twenty eighteen. So it didn't didn't 667 00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:08,879 Speaker 2: work out last week. But these things, when you win 668 00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:13,160 Speaker 2: the luck rankings lineup, it tends to be pretty pretty, 669 00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:17,280 Speaker 2: pretty profitable. I think the Raiders Chiefs game on Thanksgiving 670 00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:19,719 Speaker 2: was also a up right game. Nobody wanted touch the Raid. 671 00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:21,640 Speaker 2: I think we talked about it like you think you 672 00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:24,280 Speaker 2: said you needed thirteen, It must close probably like thirteen 673 00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:27,239 Speaker 2: and a half fourteen and well and behold. So love 674 00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:30,879 Speaker 2: shout to doctor Nick and the Action Analytics team. But yeah, 675 00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:36,319 Speaker 2: luck Rankings, Browns, don't. Don't deliver me from jamis all 676 00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:38,279 Speaker 2: types of turnovers this week. Just give me the cover 677 00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:42,040 Speaker 2: Cleveland plus four and a half. 678 00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:46,560 Speaker 3: All right, my third pick and the fifth overall the 679 00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:50,160 Speaker 3: week fifteen Sunday six pack. I'm going with the Los 680 00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:54,880 Speaker 3: Angeles Chargers and make sure there's a expensive two and 681 00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:56,319 Speaker 3: a half out there still, Yeah, two and a half 682 00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:59,280 Speaker 3: minus one twenty out there? Bye, ye up the minus 683 00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:02,200 Speaker 3: two and minus on twenty five. I'm going with the 684 00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:04,279 Speaker 3: Charterers here against the Bucks. I personally think the Bucks 685 00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:06,920 Speaker 3: the most overrated team in the NFL right now. I 686 00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:10,879 Speaker 3: know they're seven and six. I mean, can we look 687 00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:14,600 Speaker 3: at their last five wins. Panthers in overtime, should have 688 00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:16,719 Speaker 3: lost Raiders. 689 00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:18,640 Speaker 2: I don't want to talk about it. I don't want 690 00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:20,640 Speaker 2: to talk about it. Don't want to talk about it. 691 00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:27,040 Speaker 3: Don't Giants with the veto the Saints with Rattler, and 692 00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:31,080 Speaker 3: the Eagles without all of their receivers and Lane Johnson. 693 00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:33,839 Speaker 3: That's their last five wins to go back even further 694 00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:36,680 Speaker 3: to get Daniels in Washington, the opener and his rookie 695 00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:38,799 Speaker 3: first road start, and then they beat the Lions on 696 00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:41,000 Speaker 3: the road, which is their one good win they can 697 00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:42,160 Speaker 3: hang their hat on. They were out gained by like 698 00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:44,600 Speaker 3: two hundred and fifty yards, got seven red zone stops. 699 00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:48,880 Speaker 3: I don't think this team is good. They've also been 700 00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:52,680 Speaker 3: very lucky. There's gonna be turnovers here, I think, and 701 00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:55,040 Speaker 3: the Bucks are gonna commit them. Baker Mayfield twenty with 702 00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:57,920 Speaker 3: you have twenty eight touchdowns, thirteen interceptions. He has sixteen 703 00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:01,239 Speaker 3: big time throws, twenty turnover worthy plays. Herbert on the 704 00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:04,920 Speaker 3: other end, fourteen touchdowns, one interception, twenty six big time throws, 705 00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:08,160 Speaker 3: eleven turnover worthy plays. The mistakes are coming for Baker 706 00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:12,760 Speaker 3: against this Chargers zone defense. The Bucks also let twenty 707 00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:15,719 Speaker 3: one fumbles on the year. They've lost five opponents are 708 00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:19,640 Speaker 3: sixty percent on field goals against them. The Bucks also 709 00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:22,360 Speaker 3: have been very good in the red zone, which you know, 710 00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:25,960 Speaker 3: converting touchdowns tends to be ti errance. But the Chargers schematically, 711 00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:28,719 Speaker 3: statistically they have the best red zone defense. Schematically, they're 712 00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:31,560 Speaker 3: very good in shrinking the field using three high safety 713 00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:34,840 Speaker 3: looks and making it very difficult for opposing offenses in 714 00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:36,440 Speaker 3: the red zone. So I don't think the Bucks are 715 00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:40,279 Speaker 3: going to have much success there. And you know, if 716 00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:42,480 Speaker 3: you look from an EPA perspective, Chargers the best zone 717 00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:47,800 Speaker 3: offense in the NFL. Bucks they run, they play man 718 00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:50,720 Speaker 3: sixteen percent of the time. The only team that plays 719 00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:53,279 Speaker 3: man less is the Colts at fourteen percent. Oh and 720 00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:56,400 Speaker 3: by the way, back to that Bill's lines, the Lions 721 00:36:56,440 --> 00:37:00,239 Speaker 3: EPA against man is the most ridiculous thing I ever 722 00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:03,040 Speaker 3: seen on offense. Bill's luckily or heavy zone day. But 723 00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:05,040 Speaker 3: they're there and the lines are like the seventh eight 724 00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:08,000 Speaker 3: best offense against zone against man. They were like, you 725 00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:11,920 Speaker 3: have to create it's their like point. It's insane, how 726 00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:17,080 Speaker 3: far above everyone else against man but the Chargers. 727 00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:20,040 Speaker 2: The Jaguars game, probably because of the just the Jaguars 728 00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:24,319 Speaker 2: played man in all games and that decided to play 729 00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:28,600 Speaker 2: freaking sit back, just give up nothing. But yeah, is it. 730 00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:31,600 Speaker 3: I guess they learned from that game. Let's just not 731 00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:33,680 Speaker 3: get embarrassed. But from an EPIA perspective, Charge is the 732 00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:36,040 Speaker 3: best zone offense. Herbert is a number one quarterback against 733 00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:38,959 Speaker 3: zone and They've been below average against man all year. 734 00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:43,640 Speaker 3: I'm also expecting mconkee back this week. That's huge against 735 00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:46,719 Speaker 3: single high looks just the Bucks run a lot of 736 00:37:46,840 --> 00:37:50,480 Speaker 3: In particular, mconkee is up there with the elite wide 737 00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:54,239 Speaker 3: receivers in the NFL this year. Herbert also has a 738 00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:58,480 Speaker 3: great protecting offensive line, great tackles. Bucks are gonna blitz 739 00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:01,040 Speaker 3: a lot. Herbert's fine with that. He can beat the blitz. 740 00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:03,920 Speaker 3: And the Bucks have injuries on the back end, No 741 00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:06,839 Speaker 3: way feels it is huge. All their other safeties are 742 00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:09,680 Speaker 3: banged up. Bucky Irving makes a huge difference in offense. 743 00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:12,360 Speaker 3: Not sure if he's going to go so. On the 744 00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:15,560 Speaker 3: other side, Chargers are also a zone heavy d They're 745 00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:17,520 Speaker 3: the only run man like nineteen percent of the time. 746 00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:20,000 Speaker 3: Baker struggled much more against zone this year. So I 747 00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:22,600 Speaker 3: like the matchup. I like the spot. I think this Bucks, 748 00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:26,279 Speaker 3: this this line should be over a field goal. Like 749 00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:30,240 Speaker 3: the matchup Bucks. More injury concerns. I'm assuming mcconkey's back, 750 00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:34,560 Speaker 3: but mistakes are coming for the Bucks. Red zone failures 751 00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:37,719 Speaker 3: are coming for the Bucks. I think it starts this week. 752 00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:40,799 Speaker 3: Give me the Chargers to get it done at home. 753 00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:44,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. So I actually this was going to 754 00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:46,799 Speaker 2: be my fourth if you took one of my three 755 00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:49,040 Speaker 2: that I wanted. And it was funny because I was 756 00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:52,279 Speaker 2: like preparing for you for to like start, you know, 757 00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:54,759 Speaker 2: diving into the you know, making it, writing up some 758 00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:56,960 Speaker 2: notes on this one and getting them together, and then 759 00:38:57,000 --> 00:38:58,600 Speaker 2: you took this one. I was like, oh, okay, well 760 00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:00,399 Speaker 2: that this works out. But no, I agree. I think 761 00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:02,880 Speaker 2: I think you've nailed it. It's the it's just the 762 00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:06,799 Speaker 2: scheme difference here, and you know, and we were, you know, 763 00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:10,040 Speaker 2: kind of low on the charges, you know, these last 764 00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:12,680 Speaker 2: couple of weeks because they haven't looked good. But this, 765 00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:15,960 Speaker 2: this is the matchup for the Chargers here. Ideally, I 766 00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:18,600 Speaker 2: would love to. I'll probably wait for the final injury 767 00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:21,600 Speaker 2: report because I do want to. You know, mconkie not 768 00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:23,840 Speaker 2: a guarantee. I don't think yet he's not. 769 00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:26,320 Speaker 3: I am counting on him playing, which yeah, if he 770 00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:28,879 Speaker 3: doesn't play, Chargers can still win this game. But Nick 771 00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:35,879 Speaker 3: Kah nikahat practice going through drills right now, one minute ago, good, good, good, yes, 772 00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:37,560 Speaker 3: and Wednesday, that's what we need. 773 00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:40,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, we need uh, we need McConkey in there, because 774 00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:43,160 Speaker 2: like you already got like this. He was catching like 775 00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:46,360 Speaker 2: four balls a game most games, So, uh, you just 776 00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:48,520 Speaker 2: need something. And like the way they're going at running 777 00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:50,480 Speaker 2: back now, you're you're not gonna get too much. You know, 778 00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:52,680 Speaker 2: they want those guys to pass protect so because you 779 00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:56,000 Speaker 2: don't want to get Herbert hurt. So yeah, you're gonna 780 00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:59,120 Speaker 2: need mcconki in there because if not, it's it just 781 00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:01,759 Speaker 2: makes it so much. And Baker always pulls something out 782 00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:03,520 Speaker 2: of his hat. I mean, he's the one thing I'll 783 00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:06,879 Speaker 2: say about Bakers yere man, he's some some scrambles. Man, 784 00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:10,080 Speaker 2: I don't know that. He just he's out here scrambling 785 00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:13,000 Speaker 2: these days and like escaping like these just like play 786 00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:15,280 Speaker 2: against the. 787 00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:16,560 Speaker 3: That's not going to work as well against the No, no. 788 00:40:16,520 --> 00:40:18,160 Speaker 2: It's not because it's his own. They're looking at him 789 00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:20,520 Speaker 2: like there's no but it's it's I'll give him credit 790 00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:22,160 Speaker 2: for that, Like that's the part of his game that 791 00:40:22,200 --> 00:40:23,759 Speaker 2: I think is like, Okay, it's not this not the 792 00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:24,560 Speaker 2: same old Baker. 793 00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:27,080 Speaker 3: But yeah, no, he's definitely playing well. But that's one 794 00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:29,440 Speaker 3: of the reasons why his numbers are better versus man 795 00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:30,600 Speaker 3: because of those scrambles. 796 00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:32,920 Speaker 2: Yep, exactly. Yeah, when he can kind of use his 797 00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:35,799 Speaker 2: legs and that's what really unlocks the second game. But yeah, 798 00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:37,719 Speaker 2: I think this is a kind of a left down 799 00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:39,960 Speaker 2: spot for the the Bucks as well, under knowing what 800 00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:42,160 Speaker 2: it's like all the way across. I know Charges don't 801 00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:43,760 Speaker 2: have a big home field, but still. 802 00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:47,800 Speaker 3: I mean, the last three wins have come against the Panthers, Giants, 803 00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:50,040 Speaker 3: and Narrators. 804 00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:53,120 Speaker 2: Like they got gifted. They got gifted, like it was 805 00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:54,960 Speaker 2: like a pick at the he throws it right to 806 00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:57,799 Speaker 2: the O'Connor throws it right to the linebacker like the 807 00:40:57,840 --> 00:40:59,960 Speaker 2: ten yard line, like and then and then the next plage, 808 00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:02,560 Speaker 2: next drive just right back off his foot and well 809 00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:03,120 Speaker 2: like it gifted. 810 00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:05,960 Speaker 3: That fumble by the Panthers, they don't call the touchdown 811 00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:07,960 Speaker 3: on lost that game. But those three teams are some 812 00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:09,480 Speaker 3: of the worst defenses in the NFL. It's a big 813 00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:12,000 Speaker 3: step up in class. And like I said, the Bucks, 814 00:41:12,000 --> 00:41:17,440 Speaker 3: their last five wins are jokes. Jokes. Yeah, this defense 815 00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:19,960 Speaker 3: is very vulnerable. Look at what Atlanta's done to them 816 00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:23,040 Speaker 3: this year and two and it's I think I think 817 00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:24,279 Speaker 3: Art's gonna have a really big day. 818 00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:28,480 Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, I'm not gonna offense. Yeah No, that's that's 819 00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:31,200 Speaker 2: another key like it's the Bucks are like they're very 820 00:41:31,320 --> 00:41:33,480 Speaker 2: likely to lose a turnover battle on this, which makes 821 00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:39,200 Speaker 2: it a lot tougher. For my third and final pick, 822 00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:42,200 Speaker 2: the sixth overall of the week fifteen Sunday six pack, 823 00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:46,040 Speaker 2: I'm going with the Seahawks plus three minus one twenty. 824 00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:47,799 Speaker 2: I would pay up to one twenty five for this 825 00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:50,840 Speaker 2: as well, but it's it's only what is it Wednesdays 826 00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:54,120 Speaker 2: we're recording this, so I would wait. I think I'm 827 00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:57,160 Speaker 2: guessing the public's gonna be on green Bay, and this 828 00:41:57,239 --> 00:42:00,000 Speaker 2: is a primetime game, so I'm guessing probably get it 829 00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:03,880 Speaker 2: decent that maybe not even juice three at some point 830 00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:08,000 Speaker 2: in closer to game time. But I just think green 831 00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:09,839 Speaker 2: Bay is overvalued in this spot. 832 00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:12,080 Speaker 3: They are fifteen out there right now. 833 00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:16,600 Speaker 2: Oh really? Oh yeah, So I mean that's fine. Yeah, 834 00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:21,000 Speaker 2: so listen, I get it. You know, probably everyone probably 835 00:42:21,000 --> 00:42:23,120 Speaker 2: wants to face Seattle. They're coming off what is it, 836 00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:26,279 Speaker 2: four straight wins, and you know, two of them have 837 00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:28,759 Speaker 2: been against Arizona, just doesn't really tell you anything, and 838 00:42:28,760 --> 00:42:30,319 Speaker 2: then they had that weird game against the Jets. But 839 00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:33,400 Speaker 2: I think there's been some really important developments that have 840 00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:37,319 Speaker 2: happened with Seattle. In the last month or so that 841 00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:39,719 Speaker 2: are still flying a little bit under the radar, to 842 00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:42,759 Speaker 2: the point where I make this almost a coin flip game, 843 00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:44,680 Speaker 2: Like I do. Have green Bay power rated better but 844 00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:48,880 Speaker 2: not significantly better than the Seahawks here and Seats have 845 00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:51,480 Speaker 2: one of the better home field advantagesty. It's pretty white 846 00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:55,000 Speaker 2: because green Bay long rest. But Seattle's defense, you know, 847 00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:57,319 Speaker 2: first eight weeks of the year, giving up three hundred 848 00:42:57,360 --> 00:42:59,560 Speaker 2: and fifty seven total yards one hundred and forty eight 849 00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:02,680 Speaker 2: rushing yards per game. They were twenty first in EPA 850 00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:05,760 Speaker 2: per play. They were twenty sixth against the rush in EPA, 851 00:43:06,520 --> 00:43:09,160 Speaker 2: dead last in early down success rates against the run. Well, 852 00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:14,000 Speaker 2: they have that Ernest Jones comes over, have that really 853 00:43:14,000 --> 00:43:17,560 Speaker 2: disastrous first game against the Bills where just I think 854 00:43:17,560 --> 00:43:19,319 Speaker 2: they lost thirty one to ten. This is not a 855 00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:21,959 Speaker 2: good game for anyone. But since that game, since Week nine, 856 00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:24,560 Speaker 2: they're giving up just three hundred and eleven total yards, 857 00:43:24,560 --> 00:43:29,359 Speaker 2: so drop up about forty five ninety one point six 858 00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:31,960 Speaker 2: rushing yards per game. They're second in EPA per play 859 00:43:32,040 --> 00:43:36,439 Speaker 2: overall on defense, fifth against the pass, third against the run, 860 00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:38,880 Speaker 2: third in early down success rate. And that was up 861 00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:43,279 Speaker 2: from dead last to top three, and the reason is 862 00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:46,799 Speaker 2: because they've kind of switched up their whole you know, 863 00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:50,759 Speaker 2: linebacking corps with Night with Jones, and that's allowing them 864 00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:54,760 Speaker 2: to stop the run with you know, the seven guys 865 00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:58,440 Speaker 2: in the box, and that's allowing their secondary to play better, 866 00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:00,440 Speaker 2: which is also healthier now. So now you have you know, 867 00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:03,280 Speaker 2: the Safeties playing at a high level. They're both graded 868 00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:06,520 Speaker 2: i think top fifteen in PFF. You got Weatherspool and 869 00:44:06,520 --> 00:44:09,480 Speaker 2: you got Ruling playing well, and that's why you're also 870 00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:12,560 Speaker 2: having success against the past because you're able to kind of, 871 00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:15,319 Speaker 2: you know, sit back a little bit more and not 872 00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:17,960 Speaker 2: worry about just getting gashed on the ground. So, I 873 00:44:18,000 --> 00:44:19,520 Speaker 2: mean we started to see it and it looked kind 874 00:44:19,560 --> 00:44:22,280 Speaker 2: of flooky at the time against that against the Niners 875 00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:25,720 Speaker 2: where they didn't really give up much to the Niners 876 00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:27,520 Speaker 2: offense at all, and you know, they ended up winning 877 00:44:27,520 --> 00:44:30,440 Speaker 2: that game twenty seventeen late and then you know they 878 00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:33,080 Speaker 2: just kind of kept it going since then. And then 879 00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:34,479 Speaker 2: on the other end, that's what you gotta do against 880 00:44:34,520 --> 00:44:36,040 Speaker 2: green Bay because green Bay has turned into a run 881 00:44:36,080 --> 00:44:38,839 Speaker 2: first team with Josh Jacobs playing really well, but they're 882 00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:41,279 Speaker 2: not letting Jordan Love throw it quite as much. Maybe 883 00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:44,560 Speaker 2: they're worried about the turnovers, but this is also a 884 00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:47,000 Speaker 2: spot where I think Seattle could win the turnover battle. 885 00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:51,160 Speaker 2: They've been unlucky in that area. But Jordan Love has 886 00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:53,759 Speaker 2: a three point four percent turnover ward he throwerate. That's 887 00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:56,000 Speaker 2: twenty eight. Gino is two point one percent, that's eight. 888 00:44:56,280 --> 00:44:57,960 Speaker 2: I think I have about the same number of picks. 889 00:44:57,960 --> 00:45:01,120 Speaker 2: So you know that's there's that's due for some regression. 890 00:45:01,520 --> 00:45:05,279 Speaker 2: But another reason I like Seattle's because they was they 891 00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:08,879 Speaker 2: started running more uh more gap scheme and they're run 892 00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:11,080 Speaker 2: game and it just seems to have unlocked that like 893 00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:14,120 Speaker 2: shaky right side of the O line all of a 894 00:45:14,160 --> 00:45:16,560 Speaker 2: sudden and Sharbon a being in there all of a sudden, 895 00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:19,399 Speaker 2: they can block it up and Sharbon is three point 896 00:45:19,480 --> 00:45:21,799 Speaker 2: six yards after contact. It's the top of the league 897 00:45:21,880 --> 00:45:23,920 Speaker 2: right there. Uh So I think he's actually a better 898 00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:26,600 Speaker 2: fit for the scheme than Walker. I think the Seattle 899 00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:28,800 Speaker 2: offense a little undervalued. I think the Seattle defense a 900 00:45:28,840 --> 00:45:32,440 Speaker 2: little undervalued. Green Bay really good team, but uh you 901 00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:34,799 Speaker 2: know we've seen them go on. They just a couple 902 00:45:34,800 --> 00:45:37,440 Speaker 2: of weeks, four weeks ago they beat the Packers by 903 00:45:37,600 --> 00:45:40,360 Speaker 2: I mean the Bears by one. Uh in you know, 904 00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:44,040 Speaker 2: on the road, off the off the coordinator change, and 905 00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:46,960 Speaker 2: that was again they should have lost. And then we've 906 00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:49,640 Speaker 2: seen them have you know, close games against you know 907 00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:52,080 Speaker 2: solid teams. Oh yeah, I mean Houston. They beat the 908 00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:55,360 Speaker 2: Rams by five. So I think Seattle at home here 909 00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:58,040 Speaker 2: can get it done. I think Seattle wins this game. 910 00:45:58,120 --> 00:46:00,239 Speaker 2: I think Package is a little bit overrated in a 911 00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:02,600 Speaker 2: market right now, and I think SATA can at least 912 00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:06,200 Speaker 2: contain the Packer running game and force Love to put 913 00:46:06,239 --> 00:46:08,719 Speaker 2: it up, which is gonna get you some completions in 914 00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:12,759 Speaker 2: some exposives, but also gets you some turnovers most likely. 915 00:46:13,200 --> 00:46:17,160 Speaker 3: It's unfortunately I've lost two straight Seattle unders a ton 916 00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:18,040 Speaker 3: of short fields. 917 00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:20,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, you got all right, track. I do agree that 918 00:46:20,520 --> 00:46:23,000 Speaker 2: the defense is playing. It's schematically. It's not just like 919 00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:26,000 Speaker 2: a matchup. It's like they're actually doing different things that 920 00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:27,680 Speaker 2: should carry over. Yeah. 921 00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:30,000 Speaker 3: Not only have they gotten healthier too, Like they healthier 922 00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:34,160 Speaker 3: along the defensive line, changed up their linebackers, healthier along 923 00:46:34,200 --> 00:46:37,759 Speaker 3: the secondary, and then change something. It's McDonald changed some 924 00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:40,719 Speaker 3: things schematically. Yeah, And one of the biggest things is 925 00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:44,800 Speaker 3: Kobe Bryant moving in at free safety for Rayshawn Jenkins. 926 00:46:45,000 --> 00:46:49,520 Speaker 3: He's made an enormous difference. He was inserted full time 927 00:46:49,560 --> 00:46:54,239 Speaker 3: there week seven or week eight, massive massive difference on 928 00:46:54,320 --> 00:46:58,440 Speaker 3: the back end, allowing McDonald to do more things with 929 00:46:58,520 --> 00:47:02,040 Speaker 3: his corners. So that's going a little under the radar 930 00:47:02,080 --> 00:47:06,080 Speaker 3: as well. So don't mind taking the three here all 931 00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:07,160 Speaker 3: born in this game later though. 932 00:47:08,400 --> 00:47:10,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, and to put some numbers to it, teams, you know, 933 00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:13,040 Speaker 2: Green Bay, I know they're gonna that's I mean, they're 934 00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:16,759 Speaker 2: three point road favorites. And what I think is, you 935 00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:19,800 Speaker 2: know two teams that are not you know, super far apart, 936 00:47:20,320 --> 00:47:22,760 Speaker 2: but they're on a streak of scoring thirty plus points 937 00:47:22,920 --> 00:47:28,040 Speaker 2: three straight games. Teams that do that are thirty six 938 00:47:28,200 --> 00:47:31,440 Speaker 2: fifty seven and one thirty eight point seven against the 939 00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:34,560 Speaker 2: spread since two thousand and three. So it's another one 940 00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:36,319 Speaker 2: of these spots where you know, wait in the year, 941 00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:38,400 Speaker 2: team just looks like it's humming, but tends to be 942 00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:41,279 Speaker 2: a little bit overrated, uh in the market. So I'll 943 00:47:41,320 --> 00:47:46,359 Speaker 2: take the Seattle Seahawks at home. That's our six pack. 944 00:47:46,440 --> 00:47:51,960 Speaker 2: Let's see, we got Buffalo very good quarterback. This is yeah, 945 00:47:52,000 --> 00:47:55,600 Speaker 2: like this is so you got we got Josh Allen, 946 00:47:55,760 --> 00:47:59,040 Speaker 2: Bryce Young, justin Herbert. I mean that's is that the 947 00:47:59,040 --> 00:48:02,719 Speaker 2: best holiday? It's gotta be. I mean, just Alan and 948 00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:06,239 Speaker 2: Herbert alone. I got kind of the rejects, like the 949 00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:08,160 Speaker 2: you know, the guys that are like just scraping out, 950 00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:12,839 Speaker 2: like kind of reinvented themselves, Russ Jamis and Gino. It's 951 00:48:12,920 --> 00:48:15,160 Speaker 2: kind of like the same guy three times, like the 952 00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:19,799 Speaker 2: veteran reclamation projects. Oh man, Yeah, this is gonna be. 953 00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:23,719 Speaker 2: It is gonna be fun. All Right. That was our 954 00:48:24,640 --> 00:48:27,799 Speaker 2: week fifteen Sunday six pack. Now it's time for our 955 00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:30,600 Speaker 2: pep talk. Every time we get ready to play, I 956 00:48:30,719 --> 00:48:31,600 Speaker 2: just want to throw up. 957 00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:32,279 Speaker 3: I'm sick. 958 00:48:32,320 --> 00:48:35,799 Speaker 2: I'm watching you guys play. Just how bad can it get? 959 00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:39,239 Speaker 2: And this week's coaches pep talk comes to us from 960 00:48:39,440 --> 00:48:44,120 Speaker 2: the nineteen ninety five film Casino, and we're dedicating it 961 00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:48,279 Speaker 2: to Tommy Cutlets, Tommy DeVito and what did you call him? 962 00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:48,520 Speaker 3: Stuck. 963 00:48:48,600 --> 00:48:51,000 Speaker 2: Last week, the New York what Giants? 964 00:48:51,400 --> 00:48:53,760 Speaker 3: New York claim to play football giants? 965 00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:55,839 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, there we go, there we go. I knew 966 00:48:55,840 --> 00:48:58,520 Speaker 2: it's in there somewhere, but yeah, the New York claim 967 00:48:58,560 --> 00:49:01,040 Speaker 2: to play football Giants. I guess they showed up for 968 00:49:01,080 --> 00:49:03,800 Speaker 2: that last couple of drives. But yeah, dedicating it to 969 00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:06,360 Speaker 2: them yet again, because we're getting Tommy Cutltz back a 970 00:49:06,480 --> 00:49:08,799 Speaker 2: quarterback covers once and it's like, now you're back to 971 00:49:08,840 --> 00:49:11,400 Speaker 2: the bench, so uh to the New York Giants. 972 00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:14,239 Speaker 1: Wait the fuck you get off talking to people about 973 00:49:14,280 --> 00:49:15,839 Speaker 1: me behind my back? Do you think I wasn't gonna 974 00:49:15,880 --> 00:49:19,319 Speaker 1: find out? You said, I'm bringing heat on you. I 975 00:49:19,320 --> 00:49:21,839 Speaker 1: gotta listen to people because of your fucking shit. You 976 00:49:21,880 --> 00:49:23,720 Speaker 1: want me to get out of my own fucking town. 977 00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:26,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, I said, let the bullshit blow over for one. 978 00:49:26,160 --> 00:49:28,200 Speaker 1: Maybe a big fucking spectacle of yourself. Me. 979 00:49:28,320 --> 00:49:30,160 Speaker 2: I wouldn't even be in the situation if it wasn't 980 00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:32,120 Speaker 2: for you. You brought down so much fucking heat on me. 981 00:49:32,360 --> 00:49:34,960 Speaker 1: Get this true, your head, you only exist out here 982 00:49:35,000 --> 00:49:38,600 Speaker 1: because of me. That way, you're gonna go your fucking warrant. 983 00:49:38,600 --> 00:49:40,600 Speaker 1: Don't ever go over my fucking head again. 984 00:49:41,160 --> 00:49:45,279 Speaker 2: Let's get into our favorite total of the week. We 985 00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:49,640 Speaker 2: both did not hit our totals last week. I mean, yeah, 986 00:49:49,680 --> 00:49:53,000 Speaker 2: that that Vikings. I mean the Vikings are just too good. 987 00:49:53,040 --> 00:49:56,000 Speaker 2: They just kept scoring and scoring and scoring, and even 988 00:49:56,040 --> 00:49:57,960 Speaker 2: if Falcons got to twenty one somehow, and then yeah, 989 00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:01,520 Speaker 2: your game just a garage of first half points, nothing 990 00:50:01,600 --> 00:50:05,160 Speaker 2: much in the second but which there was pile through. 991 00:50:05,040 --> 00:50:06,920 Speaker 3: Two picks on the two short piel of touchdowns and 992 00:50:07,080 --> 00:50:11,600 Speaker 3: it was cooked. So I already gave mine I'm going 993 00:50:12,000 --> 00:50:14,200 Speaker 3: Steelers Egos under where are you going? 994 00:50:14,760 --> 00:50:20,359 Speaker 2: I'm going with the Bengals Titans under forty seven. And 995 00:50:21,360 --> 00:50:24,200 Speaker 2: this is kind of similar to my handicap for the 996 00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:27,280 Speaker 2: Monday night game. I just think that the Bengals played 997 00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:30,120 Speaker 2: a bunch of shootouts versus you know, there's just two 998 00:50:30,200 --> 00:50:33,920 Speaker 2: elite quarterbacks matching up, and they had these ridiculous totals 999 00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:37,480 Speaker 2: and now they're gonna essentially be inflated pretty much for 1000 00:50:37,520 --> 00:50:40,560 Speaker 2: the rest of the season. Uh, you know, Titans totals 1001 00:50:40,560 --> 00:50:44,080 Speaker 2: probably shouldn't be forty seven against anyone. Now, they will 1002 00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:46,360 Speaker 2: have some success on the ground, but they're gonna. 1003 00:50:46,280 --> 00:50:47,399 Speaker 3: Don't get the clock moving. 1004 00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:49,960 Speaker 2: They placed yeah too, yeah, and they I mean they 1005 00:50:49,960 --> 00:50:52,480 Speaker 2: started last week's game. I was I'm looking. I always 1006 00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:54,960 Speaker 2: look at the transaction wire because it tells the story told. 1007 00:50:55,000 --> 00:50:56,640 Speaker 2: A couple of weeks ago, I saw the Jets brought up, 1008 00:50:57,280 --> 00:50:59,719 Speaker 2: you know, onengu and I was like, Okay, what are 1009 00:50:59,760 --> 00:51:02,000 Speaker 2: they going to do with Isaiah Davis and like this week, 1010 00:51:02,200 --> 00:51:05,280 Speaker 2: I was like, what are the Titans doing with Oda Quoya? 1011 00:51:05,600 --> 00:51:07,919 Speaker 2: And then they make Martin Robinson actor. They got five 1012 00:51:07,960 --> 00:51:11,120 Speaker 2: tight ends again. Of course they come out first eight 1013 00:51:11,200 --> 00:51:13,840 Speaker 2: plays and nine of the first ten just hand the 1014 00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:16,040 Speaker 2: ball to pollard En they'p getting a field, go out 1015 00:51:16,040 --> 00:51:19,080 Speaker 2: of it, and just essentially the plan was just to 1016 00:51:19,160 --> 00:51:22,719 Speaker 2: run the entire game as much as they could. They're 1017 00:51:22,719 --> 00:51:26,080 Speaker 2: out of the playoff race. He'd probably given up on Levis. 1018 00:51:26,080 --> 00:51:29,600 Speaker 2: He still can't make accurate throws. So you know, am 1019 00:51:29,680 --> 00:51:33,200 Speaker 2: I worried about the Bengals defense? Not really probably more 1020 00:51:33,200 --> 00:51:34,960 Speaker 2: worried about a Levis pick six? But I think you 1021 00:51:35,000 --> 00:51:38,000 Speaker 2: have some wiggle room here because you look at this 1022 00:51:38,040 --> 00:51:41,719 Speaker 2: Bengals defense against like the non elite quarterbacks they face 1023 00:51:41,800 --> 00:51:44,880 Speaker 2: so like they faced Lamar twice, they face Herbert, they 1024 00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:48,399 Speaker 2: faced a Russ and Daniels and Hurts, good offenses. They 1025 00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:50,040 Speaker 2: give up three hundred and six passing yards the game 1026 00:51:50,120 --> 00:51:53,160 Speaker 2: to those guys, nine point six in attempt, sixteen touchdowns, 1027 00:51:53,200 --> 00:51:59,799 Speaker 2: one pick, but against Rossett, Minshew, Dalton, Rush Watson and 1028 00:52:00,480 --> 00:52:02,760 Speaker 2: crazy enough, not that I'm putting him in this category, 1029 00:52:02,800 --> 00:52:06,879 Speaker 2: but his numbers fit an Mahomes early in the year 1030 00:52:06,920 --> 00:52:08,880 Speaker 2: before what he didn't really have his receiving core together. 1031 00:52:08,920 --> 00:52:10,319 Speaker 2: They give up to just one hundred and sixty one 1032 00:52:10,360 --> 00:52:13,560 Speaker 2: point seven yards, five point eight in attempt, six touchdowns, 1033 00:52:13,600 --> 00:52:15,920 Speaker 2: five picks. So a lot of the perception is just 1034 00:52:15,920 --> 00:52:18,120 Speaker 2: coming from they played in like all they had the 1035 00:52:18,200 --> 00:52:20,120 Speaker 2: Ravens like I think twice in a month, and just 1036 00:52:20,200 --> 00:52:22,719 Speaker 2: all these shootouts, and I think it's gonna start to 1037 00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:25,960 Speaker 2: calm down the Titans style of defense. They're at home. 1038 00:52:26,680 --> 00:52:29,280 Speaker 2: You know, they actually rate out good in some metrics, 1039 00:52:29,280 --> 00:52:30,759 Speaker 2: but I mean it's all over the place because they 1040 00:52:30,760 --> 00:52:32,360 Speaker 2: got guys injured. But they did get a woozy a 1041 00:52:32,440 --> 00:52:35,200 Speaker 2: back last week, so and there's some familiarity here with 1042 00:52:35,200 --> 00:52:36,920 Speaker 2: the coach and the staff. So I don't think it's 1043 00:52:36,960 --> 00:52:39,520 Speaker 2: going to be like just a massive score score game. 1044 00:52:39,560 --> 00:52:41,360 Speaker 2: And who knows where Burrow's head is as he's dealing 1045 00:52:41,400 --> 00:52:45,839 Speaker 2: with unfortunate you know, home robberies or whatever it is. 1046 00:52:45,880 --> 00:52:49,400 Speaker 2: Like these targeted hits now of the athletes's house is 1047 00:52:49,440 --> 00:52:52,080 Speaker 2: just ridiculous. So and you get a thirty percent chance 1048 00:52:52,080 --> 00:52:54,279 Speaker 2: of rain on top of that. So I just think 1049 00:52:54,320 --> 00:52:55,799 Speaker 2: that this is going to be a run every game 1050 00:52:55,840 --> 00:52:59,720 Speaker 2: for the Titans Bengals. They'll probably put up their usual 1051 00:53:00,160 --> 00:53:02,000 Speaker 2: mid to high twenties, but I don't think they're gonna 1052 00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:03,800 Speaker 2: get in a shootout with this team. And this is 1053 00:53:03,840 --> 00:53:07,719 Speaker 2: also a luck under at minus eight point one. You know, 1054 00:53:08,000 --> 00:53:10,400 Speaker 2: expect these teams have been scoring about eight point one 1055 00:53:10,440 --> 00:53:13,759 Speaker 2: points higher than expected, so expect that to regress in 1056 00:53:14,520 --> 00:53:17,760 Speaker 2: luck totals sixteen to nine sixty four percent on the season, 1057 00:53:17,960 --> 00:53:21,279 Speaker 2: similar rates dating back to twenty eighteen. So take the 1058 00:53:21,360 --> 00:53:23,320 Speaker 2: Bengals Titans under. It's another one. Might as well, I 1059 00:53:23,320 --> 00:53:24,919 Speaker 2: haven't put in the app yet, might as well just wait. 1060 00:53:24,960 --> 00:53:27,640 Speaker 2: These totals they're the like all the lines of the 1061 00:53:27,640 --> 00:53:30,200 Speaker 2: sharpest on Wednesdays and Thursdays when we record this, and 1062 00:53:30,239 --> 00:53:32,920 Speaker 2: then by Friday, Saturday, Sunday like they'll be they'll be 1063 00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:34,759 Speaker 2: soft again. So we might get a forty seven and 1064 00:53:34,800 --> 00:53:37,680 Speaker 2: a half, especially if the rain is not you know, 1065 00:53:37,680 --> 00:53:40,160 Speaker 2: like there's no the forecast lightens up. So I wouldn't 1066 00:53:40,160 --> 00:53:42,040 Speaker 2: be in any rush for this one. But Bengals Titan's 1067 00:53:42,120 --> 00:53:45,319 Speaker 2: under for me. Any thoughts don't discover all right, So 1068 00:53:45,640 --> 00:53:50,360 Speaker 2: Bengals Titans for me. Steelers Eagles under forty two and 1069 00:53:50,400 --> 00:53:53,360 Speaker 2: a half were stuck. Now it's time for our favorite 1070 00:53:53,360 --> 00:54:04,240 Speaker 2: teaser of the week. Oh yeah, six point teasers don't 1071 00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:11,040 Speaker 2: tease me? All right, Stuck, I don't. I don't have 1072 00:54:11,080 --> 00:54:13,640 Speaker 2: a real favorite teaser this week been, like I said, 1073 00:54:13,680 --> 00:54:16,239 Speaker 2: weird year. But I know you actually have one. So 1074 00:54:16,480 --> 00:54:17,000 Speaker 2: where are you going? 1075 00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:22,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go Seattle through three and seven at home, 1076 00:54:23,200 --> 00:54:27,319 Speaker 3: and I'm gonna go with the already talked about that game. 1077 00:54:27,360 --> 00:54:31,279 Speaker 3: Then we're gonna go with the Commanders from seven and 1078 00:54:31,320 --> 00:54:33,080 Speaker 3: a half down to one and a half through the 1079 00:54:33,120 --> 00:54:37,480 Speaker 3: seven and three Commanders coming off the bye road favorites 1080 00:54:37,520 --> 00:54:39,200 Speaker 3: off of bye with a winning record or like sixty 1081 00:54:39,239 --> 00:54:43,000 Speaker 3: percent against the spread historically. I don't think car is 1082 00:54:43,000 --> 00:54:45,279 Speaker 3: gonna play. What does what does the Saints team have? 1083 00:54:45,480 --> 00:54:47,480 Speaker 3: Taysom Hill is out, there's no receivers. 1084 00:54:47,719 --> 00:54:48,160 Speaker 2: Die. 1085 00:54:48,480 --> 00:54:51,120 Speaker 3: They can't stop the run. I can't stop. I mean 1086 00:54:51,239 --> 00:54:51,839 Speaker 3: it's a mess. 1087 00:54:52,120 --> 00:54:52,239 Speaker 2: Uh. 1088 00:54:52,880 --> 00:54:55,080 Speaker 3: They've won a couple of games under Rizzy because teams 1089 00:54:55,080 --> 00:54:59,840 Speaker 3: can't make field goals. Yeah, I think the Commanders should 1090 00:54:59,840 --> 00:55:03,640 Speaker 3: be to win this game. So let's go Saints. Excuse me, 1091 00:55:03,719 --> 00:55:09,480 Speaker 3: let's go Seahawks. Commanders through both Can you. 1092 00:55:09,440 --> 00:55:11,400 Speaker 2: Just lay the seven and a half here? I like 1093 00:55:11,600 --> 00:55:15,360 Speaker 2: the Saints. They they almost lost that game to the Giants. 1094 00:55:15,440 --> 00:55:17,560 Speaker 2: They gave up so many The Giants had like three 1095 00:55:17,600 --> 00:55:19,360 Speaker 2: four chances near the end and end up missing a 1096 00:55:19,360 --> 00:55:21,600 Speaker 2: short field goal, but they had shots at the end zone, 1097 00:55:21,960 --> 00:55:23,440 Speaker 2: like they could have won that game. 1098 00:55:24,040 --> 00:55:26,440 Speaker 3: They alsoid the Giants also had a punk return touchdown 1099 00:55:26,480 --> 00:55:30,120 Speaker 3: yeah yeah, yeah, and then they had another field goal 1100 00:55:30,880 --> 00:55:34,960 Speaker 3: taking off the board because one of their offensive linemen 1101 00:55:35,160 --> 00:55:39,439 Speaker 3: committed to unnecessary roughness while the kick was in the air, 1102 00:55:40,040 --> 00:55:43,440 Speaker 3: and then they had a punt. So yeah, the Saints 1103 00:55:43,480 --> 00:55:45,759 Speaker 3: have been really lucky on special teams since Razi took over. 1104 00:55:46,280 --> 00:55:46,880 Speaker 2: Uh. 1105 00:55:47,640 --> 00:55:49,880 Speaker 3: I don't mind lying it with the Commanders either. 1106 00:55:50,560 --> 00:55:52,760 Speaker 2: But it's like the other thing is I mean sometimes 1107 00:55:52,760 --> 00:55:55,320 Speaker 2: these teams like it's like the Saints are weird. They 1108 00:55:55,600 --> 00:55:57,480 Speaker 2: they showed up at home, remember they like I mean, 1109 00:55:57,760 --> 00:56:01,400 Speaker 2: granted Tayson was there, but they like randomly throughout the 1110 00:56:01,560 --> 00:56:04,680 Speaker 2: Browns like thirty five or fourteen that one week. They've 1111 00:56:04,719 --> 00:56:06,879 Speaker 2: played the Rams pretty competitive. I think they shut them out. 1112 00:56:06,880 --> 00:56:09,799 Speaker 3: There's no car Remember that offense without. 1113 00:56:09,520 --> 00:56:11,800 Speaker 2: Car Yeah, he was a key, Like they were doing 1114 00:56:11,880 --> 00:56:14,080 Speaker 2: it with Scantling even like they were still like it 1115 00:56:14,160 --> 00:56:16,319 Speaker 2: was just but yeah, car or Hill. 1116 00:56:16,320 --> 00:56:21,720 Speaker 3: They're both out now. There's just not much on this roster. 1117 00:56:23,000 --> 00:56:24,759 Speaker 3: This is the first time the Saints be catching over 1118 00:56:24,760 --> 00:56:28,880 Speaker 3: a touchdown at homes. It's ninety nine against the Cowboys. 1119 00:56:29,000 --> 00:56:31,239 Speaker 2: Yeah, it feels a little shaky to rate late the 1120 00:56:31,280 --> 00:56:33,239 Speaker 2: seven and a half. So I get where you're coming 1121 00:56:33,239 --> 00:56:35,400 Speaker 2: from with the teas, but I mean, commanders off the 1122 00:56:35,400 --> 00:56:39,160 Speaker 2: buy in unless Yeah, and I don't even know. 1123 00:56:39,120 --> 00:56:40,879 Speaker 3: What it looks like Latimore will go to which will 1124 00:56:40,880 --> 00:56:42,600 Speaker 3: help give them more flexibility. 1125 00:56:42,600 --> 00:56:45,040 Speaker 2: He was a full practice to Yeah, I mean against 1126 00:56:45,200 --> 00:56:48,239 Speaker 2: what is Hainter? Yeah, this is man. This will be 1127 00:56:48,239 --> 00:56:49,680 Speaker 2: one of those This is gonna be a weird game. 1128 00:56:49,680 --> 00:56:53,399 Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, I I just I's these teams 1129 00:56:53,440 --> 00:56:55,320 Speaker 2: come out different week to week. It's a week to 1130 00:56:55,320 --> 00:56:57,360 Speaker 2: week league. But I mean, Matt, Wow, the Saints stat 1131 00:56:57,760 --> 00:57:00,319 Speaker 2: they just collapsed down the stretch last week of lucky 1132 00:57:00,360 --> 00:57:01,680 Speaker 2: to win that game, all right. 1133 00:57:01,680 --> 00:57:03,239 Speaker 3: He couldn't even run the ball against the Giants who 1134 00:57:03,280 --> 00:57:05,640 Speaker 3: have like no defensive line, no line. 1135 00:57:05,880 --> 00:57:09,000 Speaker 2: Yes, they had one really good run and actually had 1136 00:57:09,000 --> 00:57:13,120 Speaker 2: a Kendre anytime touchdown, but so I was happy about that, 1137 00:57:13,200 --> 00:57:15,319 Speaker 2: Like that one just pushed the pile into the end zone. 1138 00:57:15,360 --> 00:57:17,880 Speaker 2: But yeah, Camara. I mean I think a workload is 1139 00:57:17,920 --> 00:57:19,280 Speaker 2: catching up to him a little or I mean he 1140 00:57:19,400 --> 00:57:21,200 Speaker 2: just eve been dropping past. I know he's playing through 1141 00:57:21,200 --> 00:57:23,680 Speaker 2: some like a risk or something, but yeah, he just listened. 1142 00:57:23,720 --> 00:57:25,760 Speaker 2: I mean even his attitude. He's probably checked out a 1143 00:57:25,800 --> 00:57:29,080 Speaker 2: little bit. I don't know, but it doesn't doesn't look good, man, 1144 00:57:29,200 --> 00:57:30,600 Speaker 2: It does not look good because Drew Lot could not 1145 00:57:30,720 --> 00:57:32,280 Speaker 2: hit the broad side of a barn and it's just 1146 00:57:32,280 --> 00:57:34,920 Speaker 2: like they just kept somehow He's remained on the field 1147 00:57:34,960 --> 00:57:36,480 Speaker 2: and next thing I know, he's taking shots to the 1148 00:57:36,520 --> 00:57:39,840 Speaker 2: end zone like second time, and I'm like wow, So yeah, 1149 00:57:39,840 --> 00:57:42,439 Speaker 2: I want no parts of the Saints. So you got 1150 00:57:42,640 --> 00:57:45,160 Speaker 2: Washington down to one and a half and Seattle up 1151 00:57:45,160 --> 00:57:47,320 Speaker 2: to eight and a half nine, depending where the line is. 1152 00:57:47,960 --> 00:57:49,800 Speaker 2: All right, now it's time for an underdog, a money 1153 00:57:49,880 --> 00:57:58,480 Speaker 2: line parley turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time 1154 00:57:58,640 --> 00:58:02,080 Speaker 2: for the money line. All right. We almost got it 1155 00:58:02,160 --> 00:58:04,960 Speaker 2: last week. I actually back to back. Yeah, I was 1156 00:58:04,960 --> 00:58:06,680 Speaker 2: about to say the Jets freaking bloke. I don't know 1157 00:58:06,680 --> 00:58:09,560 Speaker 2: how because like I saw most of the like at first, 1158 00:58:09,600 --> 00:58:11,000 Speaker 2: I saw it on red zone. When I went back 1159 00:58:11,000 --> 00:58:13,720 Speaker 2: to do my rewatch, I don't remember seeing the Jets 1160 00:58:13,720 --> 00:58:17,200 Speaker 2: get stopped for the first three and a half quarters 1161 00:58:17,360 --> 00:58:19,280 Speaker 2: and then I'm like, I know the results or but 1162 00:58:19,320 --> 00:58:22,200 Speaker 2: I'm like, how did they even lose this game? Like, 1163 00:58:22,440 --> 00:58:24,760 Speaker 2: I don't know how they lost that game either. I 1164 00:58:24,800 --> 00:58:28,640 Speaker 2: mean Sanders just hitting some clutch kicks, and i mean, 1165 00:58:28,880 --> 00:58:33,000 Speaker 2: first of all, how how could it? Like why is 1166 00:58:33,000 --> 00:58:34,680 Speaker 2: the Dolphins defense so bad? It's not it shouldn't be 1167 00:58:34,720 --> 00:58:36,840 Speaker 2: this bad. I don't I don't even understand why the 1168 00:58:36,920 --> 00:58:38,520 Speaker 2: Dolphins defense is so bad. And the reason I asked 1169 00:58:38,520 --> 00:58:41,080 Speaker 2: you that stuff is because the Dolphins are gonna be 1170 00:58:41,080 --> 00:58:43,160 Speaker 2: my money my dog this week. I'm gonna but like 1171 00:58:43,640 --> 00:58:45,480 Speaker 2: I have no confidence to them to get stops. That's 1172 00:58:45,480 --> 00:58:47,360 Speaker 2: why I'm doing them on the money line. Like I 1173 00:58:47,360 --> 00:58:49,880 Speaker 2: could see Houston, uh even coming out of the bike. 1174 00:58:49,920 --> 00:58:51,160 Speaker 2: I mean, they came out the buy last year and 1175 00:58:51,160 --> 00:58:54,480 Speaker 2: lost the Panthers with Bryce young rookie Panthers. So I'm 1176 00:58:54,480 --> 00:58:57,400 Speaker 2: not scared of the Texans state. They are just a sloppy, 1177 00:58:57,680 --> 00:58:59,800 Speaker 2: you know, team that can always lose the game. But 1178 00:59:00,240 --> 00:59:02,880 Speaker 2: why can't the Dolphins get stopped? Like they shouldn't be 1179 00:59:02,960 --> 00:59:06,000 Speaker 2: this bad with that? Like I know some like Ramsey's 1180 00:59:06,080 --> 00:59:09,080 Speaker 2: passes prime, but like this. It just doesn't make sense 1181 00:59:09,080 --> 00:59:09,240 Speaker 2: to me. 1182 00:59:10,000 --> 00:59:13,080 Speaker 3: I mean, they're dealing with injuries, which, uh is part 1183 00:59:13,120 --> 00:59:17,320 Speaker 3: of it. I I don't mind the Dolphins. I kind 1184 00:59:17,360 --> 00:59:21,760 Speaker 3: of think that's a sneaky over. I want to wait. 1185 00:59:21,920 --> 00:59:24,680 Speaker 3: I mean that the Dolphins are due for a Rams 1186 00:59:24,720 --> 00:59:25,520 Speaker 3: type explosion. 1187 00:59:25,760 --> 00:59:27,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, last three weeks. 1188 00:59:27,360 --> 00:59:30,480 Speaker 3: They're like twenty two on third downs, so. 1189 00:59:31,600 --> 00:59:36,600 Speaker 2: Uh good, Yeah, and was playing well. 1190 00:59:37,920 --> 00:59:41,200 Speaker 3: I think this Texans offense will look more competent, especially 1191 00:59:41,240 --> 00:59:43,040 Speaker 3: early on in the games and them good first hass, 1192 00:59:43,040 --> 00:59:45,280 Speaker 3: But they had the they needed to. I was talking 1193 00:59:45,280 --> 00:59:46,680 Speaker 3: about that before the buys, like they need to get 1194 00:59:46,720 --> 00:59:49,440 Speaker 3: to the buy and figure some things out on offense, 1195 00:59:50,240 --> 00:59:52,560 Speaker 3: and you know, you get these there's a lot of 1196 00:59:52,600 --> 00:59:59,160 Speaker 3: talent too, talented quarterbacks indoors and this Texans defense, you 1197 00:59:59,240 --> 01:00:02,480 Speaker 3: won't have Shi and I don't think Petre's gonna play. 1198 01:00:02,480 --> 01:00:05,160 Speaker 3: But that's what I'm waiting on. If you don't have Petrie, 1199 01:00:05,200 --> 01:00:07,240 Speaker 3: they can't really run what they want to run. And 1200 01:00:07,280 --> 01:00:09,640 Speaker 3: then there's either a hole at safety or a hole 1201 01:00:09,760 --> 01:00:12,680 Speaker 3: at the nickel, and Petrie at the nickel just makes 1202 01:00:12,680 --> 01:00:17,040 Speaker 3: a world of difference. So if he's out, I know 1203 01:00:17,080 --> 01:00:20,120 Speaker 3: they might get Harris back, might help a little bit 1204 01:00:20,120 --> 01:00:22,760 Speaker 3: of linebacker, but without Shai Here and pe Tree, this 1205 01:00:23,280 --> 01:00:25,240 Speaker 3: defense just isn't the same. And then they can be 1206 01:00:25,240 --> 01:00:26,680 Speaker 3: picked a part over the middle of the field, which 1207 01:00:26,720 --> 01:00:28,880 Speaker 3: the Dolphins, Uh they. 1208 01:00:28,760 --> 01:00:31,560 Speaker 2: Will because like what do you think because like the 1209 01:00:31,600 --> 01:00:33,040 Speaker 2: one thing about the Dolphins and that because I was 1210 01:00:33,040 --> 01:00:36,320 Speaker 2: just thinking about this over too, but like without Armstead, 1211 01:00:36,320 --> 01:00:38,680 Speaker 2: it looks like he's not gonna play right. They just 1212 01:00:38,760 --> 01:00:40,680 Speaker 2: I mean, they just throw so much underneath, Like they 1213 01:00:40,680 --> 01:00:43,280 Speaker 2: don't even try to go downfield anymore. It's so it's 1214 01:00:43,440 --> 01:00:46,880 Speaker 2: it's like a whole different offense. Like do you think 1215 01:00:46,880 --> 01:00:49,480 Speaker 2: that they'll still be able to generate explosives that like 1216 01:00:49,520 --> 01:00:50,840 Speaker 2: with that without. 1217 01:00:50,560 --> 01:00:51,960 Speaker 3: I think there's gonna be a couple of But like 1218 01:00:52,000 --> 01:00:54,840 Speaker 3: if they don't have Petri. The Texans have had some 1219 01:00:55,680 --> 01:00:58,080 Speaker 3: busts that I think the Dolphins will hit, Like there's 1220 01:00:58,120 --> 01:01:04,160 Speaker 3: been go back to that uh Titans game, think about 1221 01:01:04,160 --> 01:01:08,960 Speaker 3: the the Titans aren't an explosive offense and there's just guys, 1222 01:01:10,080 --> 01:01:17,680 Speaker 3: there's guys that are just wide open. So yeah, I 1223 01:01:16,080 --> 01:01:19,040 Speaker 3: h I think the Dolphins be able to hit them. 1224 01:01:19,040 --> 01:01:20,280 Speaker 3: I also think they'renna be able to fish them with 1225 01:01:20,320 --> 01:01:22,960 Speaker 3: the ball. And I think they'redue for some third down regression, 1226 01:01:23,600 --> 01:01:27,560 Speaker 3: which will help them in that regard, so you know, 1227 01:01:27,720 --> 01:01:32,520 Speaker 3: sneaky over. I don't mind the Dolphins as a money 1228 01:01:32,520 --> 01:01:36,720 Speaker 3: line dog piece. I'm gonna go with the Colts. I 1229 01:01:36,800 --> 01:01:38,720 Speaker 3: think the Bronx is the best team against the spread 1230 01:01:38,760 --> 01:01:40,880 Speaker 3: to Nick's six and against spread as a favorite. I 1231 01:01:40,920 --> 01:01:43,960 Speaker 3: get all that. Who will they beat? I mean they 1232 01:01:44,000 --> 01:01:46,000 Speaker 3: get you have to pick six against the Browns. To 1233 01:01:46,040 --> 01:01:48,920 Speaker 3: pick six against the Raiders, that flips the game. They 1234 01:01:48,920 --> 01:01:50,760 Speaker 3: have one win over a team with the winning record. 1235 01:01:50,800 --> 01:01:55,800 Speaker 3: It's the fraud Bucks. That's it all year. Both teams 1236 01:01:55,840 --> 01:01:58,840 Speaker 3: coming off of a bye here. The Colts are getting healthier. 1237 01:01:58,880 --> 01:02:01,600 Speaker 3: I think Downs will play. They're getting a couple offensive 1238 01:02:01,600 --> 01:02:05,040 Speaker 3: linemen back. I don't think Smith will play it right tackle, 1239 01:02:05,080 --> 01:02:07,720 Speaker 3: but they have their left tackle back. Kelly is back. 1240 01:02:07,760 --> 01:02:11,520 Speaker 3: BORDERLINI should be back, so that will help. I mean 1241 01:02:11,560 --> 01:02:13,280 Speaker 3: they were recent weeks. They're playing with a three rookie 1242 01:02:13,320 --> 01:02:17,959 Speaker 3: offensive linemen and the Broncos defense. We'll see on Riley Moss. 1243 01:02:18,320 --> 01:02:20,320 Speaker 3: This would have been one of my three if I 1244 01:02:20,400 --> 01:02:22,880 Speaker 3: knew Riley Moss was out. I think Riley Moss can 1245 01:02:22,960 --> 01:02:26,560 Speaker 3: be out. We'll find out today more on his status. 1246 01:02:26,640 --> 01:02:28,640 Speaker 3: But this defense can't do what it wants to do 1247 01:02:28,680 --> 01:02:33,240 Speaker 3: without Moss. They don't have another corner and uh yeah, 1248 01:02:33,920 --> 01:02:35,600 Speaker 3: season on the line for the Colts. I think it's 1249 01:02:35,600 --> 01:02:37,560 Speaker 3: gould be a close game. I think the Broncos are 1250 01:02:37,560 --> 01:02:41,080 Speaker 3: a bit overvalued. I think this should be a field 1251 01:02:41,120 --> 01:02:44,520 Speaker 3: goal nothing more so, I bet I bet the Colts. 1252 01:02:44,560 --> 01:02:46,480 Speaker 3: I like them on the money. I know all the 1253 01:02:46,520 --> 01:02:47,960 Speaker 3: Colts do to play close games. I think they off 1254 01:02:47,960 --> 01:02:48,520 Speaker 3: a shot here. 1255 01:02:48,920 --> 01:02:50,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, as I say, Anthony, you're interested, does nothing but 1256 01:02:50,960 --> 01:02:54,160 Speaker 2: cover spreads and put up harrible passing line. So I 1257 01:02:54,200 --> 01:02:56,520 Speaker 2: can't fault you with it. I don't know, could say, 1258 01:02:56,520 --> 01:02:59,280 Speaker 2: I'm I'm I don't know. Broncos is not really a team. 1259 01:02:59,320 --> 01:03:02,360 Speaker 2: I'm honestly on a fade. I just they're just like 1260 01:03:02,520 --> 01:03:06,120 Speaker 2: they off of Bye. They keep evolving. So like now 1261 01:03:06,160 --> 01:03:08,080 Speaker 2: you're getting like a like you. You are getting the 1262 01:03:08,120 --> 01:03:09,760 Speaker 2: Coast healthy and off of Bye as well, But you're 1263 01:03:09,760 --> 01:03:12,920 Speaker 2: also getting like Sean Payton with timed and you know 1264 01:03:13,000 --> 01:03:17,400 Speaker 2: his staff and Richardson. You know it's I mean, yeah, 1265 01:03:17,520 --> 01:03:19,400 Speaker 2: it's it's gonna be dying. It's gonna be your sweat. 1266 01:03:19,800 --> 01:03:22,520 Speaker 2: But like you said, Richardson, he does not But cover 1267 01:03:22,640 --> 01:03:26,120 Speaker 2: in these spots that that Patriots lost that had they 1268 01:03:26,160 --> 01:03:28,080 Speaker 2: just had to be demoralized. I had the Patriots in 1269 01:03:28,120 --> 01:03:31,520 Speaker 2: that game. Luckily they covered, But I mean nineteen play drive. 1270 01:03:31,640 --> 01:03:33,240 Speaker 2: To even have a nineteen play drive, you know how 1271 01:03:33,240 --> 01:03:36,920 Speaker 2: inefficient you have to be, like nineteen plays down on 1272 01:03:37,000 --> 01:03:40,360 Speaker 2: the field, like a guy that throws like nothing but 1273 01:03:40,440 --> 01:03:43,120 Speaker 2: eighty yard bombs, like where we get like it's yeah, 1274 01:03:43,400 --> 01:03:45,440 Speaker 2: it's it's gonna be a rough It's gonna be a 1275 01:03:45,520 --> 01:03:49,440 Speaker 2: rough watch. But hopefully he uh comes through for us. 1276 01:03:49,480 --> 01:03:54,400 Speaker 2: Steve Parlay past plus one seventy Dolphins plus one thirty 1277 01:03:54,400 --> 01:03:56,280 Speaker 2: five because I was I was sticking of going the Steelers, 1278 01:03:56,280 --> 01:03:58,960 Speaker 2: but you know what, Uh yeah, I already took him 1279 01:03:58,960 --> 01:04:01,360 Speaker 2: on the six pack. And dude, I do think the Dolphins, 1280 01:04:01,440 --> 01:04:04,040 Speaker 2: like you said, they they are running like for as 1281 01:04:04,040 --> 01:04:06,520 Speaker 2: well as to his playing, they should, uh they should 1282 01:04:06,520 --> 01:04:09,600 Speaker 2: break through and actually beat a good team at some point. 1283 01:04:09,760 --> 01:04:13,640 Speaker 2: So Dolphins plus one thirty five Coat plus one seventy Parlay. 1284 01:04:13,760 --> 01:04:15,240 Speaker 3: It looks like petres out. He might play out for 1285 01:04:15,240 --> 01:04:18,000 Speaker 3: the year. They're contemplating surgery for what it's worth, which 1286 01:04:18,240 --> 01:04:22,560 Speaker 3: would suck because I think that he they need him 1287 01:04:22,560 --> 01:04:23,640 Speaker 3: to make a playoff run. 1288 01:04:24,680 --> 01:04:26,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean yeah, just like the dollars, I probably 1289 01:04:26,840 --> 01:04:29,600 Speaker 2: need the armstead. So it's injury. Yeah, injuries are just 1290 01:04:29,640 --> 01:04:31,280 Speaker 2: weird this year though, because I mean, yeah, they didn't 1291 01:04:31,280 --> 01:04:32,600 Speaker 2: have him last week for a lout of the game, 1292 01:04:32,640 --> 01:04:35,480 Speaker 2: and yeah, I don't know, it's it's been it's been 1293 01:04:35,520 --> 01:04:37,280 Speaker 2: a weird year injury wise. And then like they're like 1294 01:04:37,400 --> 01:04:39,560 Speaker 2: the Saints are they're not ruling out car yet, like 1295 01:04:39,560 --> 01:04:41,520 Speaker 2: no one wants to rule out anyone. It's like, oh, yeah, 1296 01:04:41,560 --> 01:04:43,880 Speaker 2: he not ruled out Aidan O'Connell comes back for being 1297 01:04:43,880 --> 01:04:46,440 Speaker 2: in the air cast. Now he's like questionable, Like what 1298 01:04:47,440 --> 01:04:50,200 Speaker 2: injuries are so weird? But uh, plus five thirty five 1299 01:04:50,320 --> 01:04:54,120 Speaker 2: is the parley for our money line Dogs, Coats, Dolphins. Uh, 1300 01:04:54,160 --> 01:04:55,720 Speaker 2: now it's time for best of the rest of the games. 1301 01:04:55,760 --> 01:04:59,840 Speaker 2: We did not discuss in any other segment that's gon 1302 01:05:00,120 --> 01:05:02,200 Speaker 2: be a touchdown, but that made me meaningful to some 1303 01:05:02,320 --> 01:05:06,280 Speaker 2: of you, you know what I mean. First up, we 1304 01:05:06,400 --> 01:05:10,960 Speaker 2: got the Jets at the Jaguars. Jags plus three and 1305 01:05:10,960 --> 01:05:14,320 Speaker 2: a half at home might be plus three by the 1306 01:05:14,320 --> 01:05:16,919 Speaker 2: time you're listening to this and kind of hovering get 1307 01:05:16,960 --> 01:05:19,520 Speaker 2: go in that direction. Total forty and a half and stuck. 1308 01:05:19,560 --> 01:05:22,400 Speaker 2: I'm I'm curious to talk to you about this game 1309 01:05:22,440 --> 01:05:26,320 Speaker 2: because you usually have a pretty good feel of, you know, 1310 01:05:26,400 --> 01:05:28,960 Speaker 2: when teams, what the effort level is gonna be, like, 1311 01:05:29,040 --> 01:05:31,960 Speaker 2: especially at this time of year. If I knew that 1312 01:05:32,040 --> 01:05:34,480 Speaker 2: I could count on the Jets giving me the same 1313 01:05:35,600 --> 01:05:38,440 Speaker 2: effort and sharpness, because they came out sharp against Miami, 1314 01:05:38,520 --> 01:05:42,160 Speaker 2: like Rogers, making quick decisions that those good scripted plays. 1315 01:05:42,840 --> 01:05:45,040 Speaker 2: I don't think they failed on to drive and then 1316 01:05:45,120 --> 01:05:47,720 Speaker 2: tire first half. If I could get those Jets against 1317 01:05:47,720 --> 01:05:49,920 Speaker 2: the Jaguars that beat the Titans, and I were my 1318 01:05:49,920 --> 01:05:52,320 Speaker 2: money line dogs, I was on them last week. But 1319 01:05:53,360 --> 01:05:56,760 Speaker 2: these Jaguars are horrible. They, like the Titans, were just 1320 01:05:56,800 --> 01:06:00,000 Speaker 2: that bad. And like JAGUARSY didn't do anything that great. 1321 01:06:00,080 --> 01:06:02,000 Speaker 2: Maybe a little couple of pressures that were good and 1322 01:06:02,120 --> 01:06:04,040 Speaker 2: a couple of Bigsby runs. But I mean, the Jets 1323 01:06:04,040 --> 01:06:06,160 Speaker 2: could win thirty to like seven. But are they going 1324 01:06:06,200 --> 01:06:08,480 Speaker 2: to show up in Florida second week in a row? 1325 01:06:09,320 --> 01:06:11,960 Speaker 2: Did they stay out They didn't stay They didn't stay 1326 01:06:11,960 --> 01:06:15,360 Speaker 2: out there. What's that they didn't stay out there? Right 1327 01:06:15,360 --> 01:06:19,640 Speaker 2: like there? They came back, they flew back. Okay, yeah, okay, 1328 01:06:21,960 --> 01:06:22,240 Speaker 2: I have a. 1329 01:06:22,320 --> 01:06:29,320 Speaker 3: Lean Jets, especially at three. But that's what I'm concerned about, 1330 01:06:28,240 --> 01:06:33,520 Speaker 3: a like, do what is the effort level? Eliminated from 1331 01:06:33,520 --> 01:06:36,320 Speaker 3: the playoffs? Lost another game? I mean, it's crazy this 1332 01:06:36,360 --> 01:06:39,120 Speaker 3: team is like favored every week. Besides last week they're 1333 01:06:39,120 --> 01:06:41,560 Speaker 3: losing overtime. They've lost games by like one, two, three, 1334 01:06:41,640 --> 01:06:44,640 Speaker 3: I mean every time they lose. Besides that Cardinals game 1335 01:06:44,680 --> 01:06:46,840 Speaker 3: is close. They could easily have like seven eight wins, 1336 01:06:46,880 --> 01:06:50,960 Speaker 3: but they're the Jets. I don't see the Jags being 1337 01:06:51,000 --> 01:06:53,880 Speaker 3: able to do much on either side of the ball. 1338 01:06:55,920 --> 01:06:58,160 Speaker 3: It's Jets are nothing. But I'm I'm worried about just 1339 01:06:58,200 --> 01:07:03,240 Speaker 3: the spot here. But I think Jets looked like they 1340 01:07:03,240 --> 01:07:07,680 Speaker 3: cared last week, but maybe that's just a final. Yeah, 1341 01:07:08,840 --> 01:07:11,720 Speaker 3: the Jets are like threat three wins and they're like 1342 01:07:11,760 --> 01:07:17,880 Speaker 3: favored every week. The Seahawks, right, are there underdogs every week? 1343 01:07:18,400 --> 01:07:18,560 Speaker 2: Right? 1344 01:07:18,760 --> 01:07:20,560 Speaker 3: How long? How many games the seas been an underdog 1345 01:07:20,560 --> 01:07:21,400 Speaker 3: in a row? Like nine? 1346 01:07:21,920 --> 01:07:23,720 Speaker 2: I'm trying to figure out, like how what people have 1347 01:07:24,160 --> 01:07:26,640 Speaker 2: like the Cardinals and the Packers only see power rate. 1348 01:07:26,720 --> 01:07:29,280 Speaker 2: I'm like, yeah, like the Packers they're good, but I 1349 01:07:29,320 --> 01:07:32,760 Speaker 2: mean it's like, where what is this these what are 1350 01:07:32,840 --> 01:07:34,360 Speaker 2: these numbers? Like last week. I think it got to 1351 01:07:34,400 --> 01:07:36,280 Speaker 2: what minus three for the Cardinals or something like that. 1352 01:07:36,640 --> 01:07:40,000 Speaker 2: I like, where are we getting this? Like, I, yeah, 1353 01:07:40,120 --> 01:07:42,480 Speaker 2: I'm as perplexed as you are, But I guess. 1354 01:07:42,280 --> 01:07:44,640 Speaker 3: Its eight in a row. 1355 01:07:45,360 --> 01:07:47,800 Speaker 2: I guess what he's doing. It's the market perception. Like 1356 01:07:47,840 --> 01:07:49,480 Speaker 2: you said, you know, they had the like early in 1357 01:07:49,480 --> 01:07:52,280 Speaker 2: the year, I think they had as usual I can't 1358 01:07:52,440 --> 01:07:54,640 Speaker 2: you get it into the end zone red zone issues, 1359 01:07:54,680 --> 01:07:56,720 Speaker 2: and then you know they've been they've been playing really 1360 01:07:56,720 --> 01:07:59,880 Speaker 2: good football. So yeah, I almost you know now on 1361 01:08:00,080 --> 01:08:03,720 Speaker 2: but yeah, so yeah, no read on the Jets. I 1362 01:08:03,840 --> 01:08:05,480 Speaker 2: want to. I want to. I want to back them 1363 01:08:05,480 --> 01:08:09,560 Speaker 2: to but yeah, it's it's it's tough because like then, 1364 01:08:09,720 --> 01:08:11,520 Speaker 2: on the other side, you could say, well, Jags are 1365 01:08:11,520 --> 01:08:13,120 Speaker 2: three and a half. If this Jets team is quitting 1366 01:08:13,160 --> 01:08:15,200 Speaker 2: the jack you know, Jackson have just sit back and coverage, 1367 01:08:15,240 --> 01:08:17,919 Speaker 2: make a couple of plays and probably win like seventeen 1368 01:08:17,960 --> 01:08:20,760 Speaker 2: to thirteen or something. So yeah, I'll just probably stay 1369 01:08:20,760 --> 01:08:23,519 Speaker 2: away from me. Uh. Next up, let's go to uh 1370 01:08:24,160 --> 01:08:28,400 Speaker 2: the g Men Baltimore. Your Ravens at the g Men 1371 01:08:28,800 --> 01:08:33,800 Speaker 2: sixteen point road favorite stuff. Tom that's the Tommy DeVito effect. Uh, 1372 01:08:34,160 --> 01:08:36,439 Speaker 2: what's gonna happen here? Like, is this a sleepy spot 1373 01:08:36,439 --> 01:08:38,519 Speaker 2: for the Ravens or is the is? Are they actually 1374 01:08:38,520 --> 01:08:40,559 Speaker 2: gonna do what they should because Tommy, I mean you 1375 01:08:40,600 --> 01:08:44,479 Speaker 2: saw Tommy DeVito last start. I tried to warn you, Uh, 1376 01:08:44,680 --> 01:08:46,840 Speaker 2: he can't throw the ball, So like, what's what's gonna 1377 01:08:46,840 --> 01:08:47,360 Speaker 2: happen here? 1378 01:08:48,800 --> 01:08:50,679 Speaker 3: Yeah? The Giants have been this pick of of her 1379 01:08:50,720 --> 01:08:53,000 Speaker 3: home underdogs since the sixties. I believe they were twenty 1380 01:08:53,000 --> 01:08:55,559 Speaker 3: three point underdog in like the sixties against the Cowboys. 1381 01:08:55,760 --> 01:08:59,880 Speaker 3: I don't I don't know how bad that team was. Uh, 1382 01:09:00,360 --> 01:09:02,840 Speaker 3: I actually lean Ravens, but I can't. I mean I can't, 1383 01:09:02,880 --> 01:09:06,040 Speaker 3: like sixteen on the road, I mean, how could this? 1384 01:09:06,120 --> 01:09:09,160 Speaker 3: How could the Ravens not cover cocker missed field goals? 1385 01:09:10,080 --> 01:09:13,960 Speaker 3: The Giants lead the league in five plus minute drives, 1386 01:09:14,080 --> 01:09:16,080 Speaker 3: so like they could just have a couple of drives 1387 01:09:16,080 --> 01:09:21,559 Speaker 3: that kill the game. But like, how are the Giants 1388 01:09:21,600 --> 01:09:26,240 Speaker 3: getting stops? I don't know. You have Tommy DeVito back there, 1389 01:09:26,240 --> 01:09:30,679 Speaker 3: you have more more offensive lineman hurt. Okay, you can't 1390 01:09:30,720 --> 01:09:36,200 Speaker 3: run on the Ravens. Harble off a bye, very good, 1391 01:09:37,200 --> 01:09:40,479 Speaker 3: pissed off Ravens team. They did have a sleepy spot 1392 01:09:40,600 --> 01:09:44,280 Speaker 3: against New York they lost, Uh his favorite ago Yeah. 1393 01:09:44,160 --> 01:09:46,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, Dable's rookie when he was when we thought he 1394 01:09:46,760 --> 01:09:49,880 Speaker 2: was like this, you know, just revolutely like you like 1395 01:09:50,000 --> 01:09:52,120 Speaker 2: we like Dable a couple years ago. Now, I don't know, man, 1396 01:09:53,320 --> 01:09:54,120 Speaker 2: don't don't love it. 1397 01:09:54,640 --> 01:09:56,640 Speaker 3: Raven's first half, I mean, joh, that's that's what I 1398 01:09:56,680 --> 01:09:57,519 Speaker 3: would play in this game. 1399 01:09:57,760 --> 01:09:59,960 Speaker 2: But is it? Is it over already? Is what is it? 1400 01:10:00,120 --> 01:10:00,599 Speaker 2: Eight and a half? 1401 01:10:00,680 --> 01:10:01,280 Speaker 3: Nine and a half? 1402 01:10:01,720 --> 01:10:03,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, I could, I could see that. 1403 01:10:04,439 --> 01:10:06,280 Speaker 3: How are the Giants get stops? How are they moving 1404 01:10:06,280 --> 01:10:07,280 Speaker 3: the ball? I don't know. 1405 01:10:07,680 --> 01:10:10,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm probably just gonna add Uh, last week I 1406 01:10:10,040 --> 01:10:13,760 Speaker 2: had a Drew Rock under half of passing touchdown. I 1407 01:10:13,760 --> 01:10:16,640 Speaker 2: think eight of twelve games coming into that one, the 1408 01:10:16,680 --> 01:10:19,080 Speaker 2: Giants starting QB had not thrown a passing touchdown. So like, 1409 01:10:20,120 --> 01:10:22,160 Speaker 2: hopefully I can find that that bet for de Vito 1410 01:10:22,560 --> 01:10:25,200 Speaker 2: and maybe that'll be my way into this one because 1411 01:10:25,400 --> 01:10:26,360 Speaker 2: Eileen Ravens. 1412 01:10:26,360 --> 01:10:28,479 Speaker 3: But I'm not in the I'm not in the business 1413 01:10:28,479 --> 01:10:30,000 Speaker 3: of lane sixteen on the road man. 1414 01:10:30,160 --> 01:10:32,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah you so. I mean, I mean, granted, the 1415 01:10:32,600 --> 01:10:34,639 Speaker 2: Panthers are a different beasts, like they're actually playing well, 1416 01:10:34,680 --> 01:10:36,880 Speaker 2: but yeah, it's just tough to cover these big numbers. 1417 01:10:37,479 --> 01:10:41,080 Speaker 2: We saw it with the Cooper Rush and the Commanders. 1418 01:10:41,120 --> 01:10:44,240 Speaker 3: We saw I'll get up big and then I'll just yeah, 1419 01:10:44,360 --> 01:10:45,280 Speaker 3: kill the kill the game. 1420 01:10:45,960 --> 01:10:49,479 Speaker 2: Yep. Yeah, so yeah, probably stay away. Maybe some props 1421 01:10:50,240 --> 01:10:53,760 Speaker 2: follow us in the action app. Last game on the 1422 01:10:53,800 --> 01:11:00,280 Speaker 2: slate that we have not discussed Patriots Acts. Yeah, Street's 1423 01:11:00,280 --> 01:11:02,799 Speaker 2: at Cardinals. So Cardinal's coming off a three game losing 1424 01:11:02,800 --> 01:11:04,920 Speaker 2: streak that dropped them to below five hundred and made 1425 01:11:04,920 --> 01:11:07,560 Speaker 2: it really tough for the NFC wester six point favorites. 1426 01:11:08,120 --> 01:11:13,120 Speaker 2: The total is forty six. It's a walkover, by the way. 1427 01:11:13,160 --> 01:11:16,720 Speaker 2: But also, I don't know, stuck, I feel like when 1428 01:11:16,720 --> 01:11:18,840 Speaker 2: I watch this, this Cardinals team, I feel like this 1429 01:11:18,920 --> 01:11:22,840 Speaker 2: Patriots team in some respects is a good matchup for them. 1430 01:11:22,840 --> 01:11:25,080 Speaker 2: I mean, Patriots can't really stop the run. The Cardinals 1431 01:11:25,080 --> 01:11:27,400 Speaker 2: need to get back to that. Uh. But at the 1432 01:11:27,439 --> 01:11:30,360 Speaker 2: same time, Cardinals do tend to struggle against man coverage 1433 01:11:30,360 --> 01:11:31,320 Speaker 2: with the Patriots. 1434 01:11:31,040 --> 01:11:32,320 Speaker 3: Running a high rate and blitz. 1435 01:11:32,479 --> 01:11:35,519 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, they're off a by so they'll be well, 1436 01:11:35,560 --> 01:11:37,880 Speaker 2: they'll be as I mean, as prepared as they've probably been. 1437 01:11:37,960 --> 01:11:40,680 Speaker 2: Maybe they even had another padded practice. Remember I mentioned that. 1438 01:11:41,040 --> 01:11:44,840 Speaker 2: Guess why I liked him against the coach bahudos, but 1439 01:11:44,920 --> 01:11:48,920 Speaker 2: also I just I think at some point before the 1440 01:11:48,960 --> 01:11:51,320 Speaker 2: season is up, Drake Mays is gonna have one of 1441 01:11:51,360 --> 01:11:53,800 Speaker 2: those games where it's just like, Okay, I'm here now, 1442 01:11:53,920 --> 01:11:55,760 Speaker 2: like you know what I mean, like and just catch 1443 01:11:55,760 --> 01:11:57,320 Speaker 2: somebody by surprise. I don't know if it's going to 1444 01:11:57,360 --> 01:11:59,120 Speaker 2: be the Cards because they just lost prete straight, but 1445 01:11:59,120 --> 01:12:01,800 Speaker 2: it could because they're deeferent. Is it's well schemed, but 1446 01:12:02,320 --> 01:12:05,519 Speaker 2: it doesn't it not. You can definitely have some success 1447 01:12:05,520 --> 01:12:06,800 Speaker 2: against it. I'll put it that way. So I mean, 1448 01:12:06,800 --> 01:12:08,280 Speaker 2: what are your thoughts on on this one? 1449 01:12:09,320 --> 01:12:11,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I was thinking about the over and 1450 01:12:11,640 --> 01:12:13,280 Speaker 3: it is a luck over, but I'm worried about the 1451 01:12:13,280 --> 01:12:15,840 Speaker 3: man coverage of the Patriots. I'm getting pressure and that's 1452 01:12:15,840 --> 01:12:19,200 Speaker 3: when Mary just folds and he's awful against man and 1453 01:12:19,280 --> 01:12:23,800 Speaker 3: the other side. Could the Cardinals defense confuse? May they 1454 01:12:24,520 --> 01:12:26,800 Speaker 3: They do a really good job of disguising things and 1455 01:12:26,840 --> 01:12:30,000 Speaker 3: taking away explosive plays. Yeah, so you can make some 1456 01:12:30,040 --> 01:12:32,840 Speaker 3: mistakes here, you know, they get they chocked a lot 1457 01:12:32,840 --> 01:12:36,120 Speaker 3: of these like three high looks and morph into a 1458 01:12:36,120 --> 01:12:39,320 Speaker 3: lot of different coverages. So that's that would be my concern. 1459 01:12:39,360 --> 01:12:41,479 Speaker 3: I haven't had a good feel on the Cardinals all year, 1460 01:12:41,520 --> 01:12:42,719 Speaker 3: so this is hard pass. 1461 01:12:43,240 --> 01:12:46,240 Speaker 2: Well, they're the Cardinals, are I think they're like they 1462 01:12:46,280 --> 01:12:51,120 Speaker 2: are very tough to read because it's like one week 1463 01:12:51,600 --> 01:12:53,639 Speaker 2: or like, you see them doing all this good scheming 1464 01:12:53,840 --> 01:12:56,680 Speaker 2: stuff and kind of maximizing talent on a defense, but 1465 01:12:56,760 --> 01:12:59,599 Speaker 2: then they have just also some of these boneheaded decisions 1466 01:12:59,600 --> 01:13:01,720 Speaker 2: like that Vikings and they were playing for field goals 1467 01:13:01,720 --> 01:13:03,880 Speaker 2: the whole game, Like what was that about? And then 1468 01:13:04,120 --> 01:13:06,360 Speaker 2: you know, like they come out on offense and like 1469 01:13:06,439 --> 01:13:08,200 Speaker 2: it's just like Kyler Murray all of a sudden just 1470 01:13:08,240 --> 01:13:10,559 Speaker 2: doesn't like has no idea what he's doing. He's just 1471 01:13:10,600 --> 01:13:12,960 Speaker 2: like dropping back and falling off one foot and throwing 1472 01:13:13,000 --> 01:13:14,799 Speaker 2: the ball up in the air and throwing arm punts 1473 01:13:14,840 --> 01:13:19,120 Speaker 2: like after we're we're in week fourteen fifteen, Like what so, yeah, 1474 01:13:19,120 --> 01:13:19,679 Speaker 2: I don't they. 1475 01:13:19,680 --> 01:13:20,800 Speaker 3: Just makes no sense to me. 1476 01:13:20,880 --> 01:13:23,600 Speaker 2: I have no none. Yeah so yeah, probably stay with 1477 01:13:23,640 --> 01:13:28,160 Speaker 2: maybe again maybe some props with this one, but I mean, 1478 01:13:28,200 --> 01:13:29,760 Speaker 2: if I had a bet it, I'd probably just take 1479 01:13:29,760 --> 01:13:32,360 Speaker 2: the points Edwien Patriot, maybe even take some Patriots money line. 1480 01:13:32,360 --> 01:13:35,600 Speaker 2: I could see Drake May just you know, putting up 1481 01:13:35,640 --> 01:13:37,680 Speaker 2: a big, a big game here, out of the buy 1482 01:13:38,600 --> 01:13:41,120 Speaker 2: all right, that is going to rapid for us. Here 1483 01:13:41,160 --> 01:13:46,160 Speaker 2: on the Action Network podcast week number fifteen. In the books, 1484 01:13:46,160 --> 01:13:47,720 Speaker 2: you can hear more of me every week with my 1485 01:13:47,760 --> 01:13:51,840 Speaker 2: guy Sean Kerner, who's killing it in the Fantasy Pros 1486 01:13:51,880 --> 01:13:55,519 Speaker 2: accuracy contests yet again. On the Fantasy Flex podcast, we'll 1487 01:13:55,640 --> 01:13:58,640 Speaker 2: call DFS player projections, props, all that good stuff. And 1488 01:13:58,680 --> 01:14:01,240 Speaker 2: of course you can hear stuff talking college football over 1489 01:14:01,280 --> 01:14:04,680 Speaker 2: on the Big Bets on Campus podcast. Stuck is on 1490 01:14:05,000 --> 01:14:07,920 Speaker 2: x at Stucky two, I am at Chress Raymond, who 1491 01:14:07,920 --> 01:14:09,719 Speaker 2: are at those same handles on the free award winning 1492 01:14:10,120 --> 01:14:13,840 Speaker 2: Action Network app. Until next week Let's Get Thish Money. 1493 01:14:13,960 --> 01:14:16,519 Speaker 3: Seven weeks Laptest seven and a HAFL weekend's test lest 1494 01:14:16,600 --> 01:14:23,680 Speaker 3: Let's have a weekend cheers. 1495 01:14:27,640 --> 01:14:32,160 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 1496 01:14:32,160 --> 01:14:34,960 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 1497 01:14:35,000 --> 01:14:38,120 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler