1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:06,520 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. But this one is good. 2 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:14,200 Speaker 1: All right. Here we go throwing in so we're saying 3 00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:18,600 Speaker 1: it's a cash stop. We see most gamblers when they 4 00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:22,360 Speaker 1: go to gamble, they go to win. God, that's incredible. 5 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:25,960 Speaker 1: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right, 6 00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:28,480 Speaker 1: this is the ultimate kabak. 7 00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 2: You want to pack. 8 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:33,519 Speaker 1: And we are underway. 9 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:37,879 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Brandon Anderson, 10 00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:41,520 Speaker 2: and this is another episode of strong Side Fridays, joined 11 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:44,320 Speaker 2: as always by Raheem Palmer. Getting you ready for some 12 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:47,800 Speaker 2: Week three NFL action. Today, we're gonna hit the big 13 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:50,480 Speaker 2: injury news heading into the weekend and then dive into 14 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:54,360 Speaker 2: Sunday's games. We will fade the public, try another all 15 00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 2: day parlay, debate our game of the week, and then 16 00:00:57,240 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 2: wrap up with some Friday futures and best bets and 17 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:02,440 Speaker 2: get you out here for the weekend. Rahim, how are 18 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:03,400 Speaker 2: you feeling about Week three? 19 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 1: I feel good about Week three. There's a lot of 20 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 1: great teaser legs this week. We got some exciting games. 21 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:11,839 Speaker 1: We got the books, we got to the Rams, we got 22 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:15,160 Speaker 1: Seahawks versus Vikings, which is always good. Packers. For now, 23 00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 1: it's gonna be a really exciting slate of NFL football. 24 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:20,399 Speaker 1: We get to learn a little bit more about these 25 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:23,760 Speaker 1: teams that we didn't necessarily learn before. So I'm really excited. 26 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:24,480 Speaker 1: I'm excited too. 27 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 2: I feel much better about week three than I did 28 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:29,480 Speaker 2: about Week two going in. We've got double the information 29 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:32,199 Speaker 2: on games, and I just like the lines a little 30 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:34,680 Speaker 2: bit better here. So before we get to those, just 31 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 2: a reminder to make sure you download our award winning 32 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 2: app at Action Network if you have not done so yet. 33 00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:43,360 Speaker 2: You track over picks there with real time notifications. Rahim 34 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 2: and I are putting bets in on game day too, 35 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 2: so you're getting some live bets and reads right as 36 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 2: we're getting those odds in there, you can see all 37 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 2: of our articles on betting fantasy football as well as 38 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:56,400 Speaker 2: all odds today are from bet MGM, the official odds 39 00:01:56,400 --> 00:02:00,480 Speaker 2: provider of the Action Network podcast. So let's get down 40 00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 2: to business with some of the big injury news of 41 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 2: the week. 42 00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 1: Let's get down. Let's get down to business. 43 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 2: We had the Red Wedding of quarterbacks on Sunday. We 44 00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 2: started out that early afternoon. I think there were six 45 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 2: quarterbacks that went out either for some while or stayed 46 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 2: out a little bit longer. So we've got a lot 47 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:24,520 Speaker 2: of big quarterback injury news to get through this week. 48 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 2: I'm in Chicago, so I'm gonna start out with the Bears. 49 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 2: Andy Dalton is out, Justin Fields is in. The rookie 50 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:34,800 Speaker 2: will make his first start this week, heading back to 51 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:38,560 Speaker 2: Ohio where he played at Ohio State to face the Browns. 52 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:42,320 Speaker 2: So I'm excited just to get to Seafields out there 53 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:44,960 Speaker 2: for a whole game. Rahiim, what are you noticing about 54 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 2: the line on this game and how we're feeling about 55 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:47,679 Speaker 2: this move. 56 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:51,000 Speaker 1: This is absolutely the strangest thing I've ever seen. But 57 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 1: the market is pricing Justin Fields as if he's worth 58 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:57,800 Speaker 1: two points to spread. I mean, we've seen this line 59 00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:01,960 Speaker 1: go down from nine to seven. I know the Browns 60 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 1: have some injuries, but this is just strange. I mean, 61 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:07,600 Speaker 1: we're sitting at seven and a half now. I don't 62 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 1: know what to make of it because when you look 63 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 1: at Justin Filds last week, he was minus point five 64 00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:18,520 Speaker 1: to eight EPA, a total EPA of negative thirteen point three, 65 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:21,120 Speaker 1: which is worse than what Dalton did. And he's playing 66 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:26,200 Speaker 1: a defensive line with Miles Garrett, Todavion clowney. To me, 67 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 1: this feels like one of those overreactions that we see 68 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 1: just because people like Justin Fields and he's exciting, But 69 00:03:33,040 --> 00:03:35,320 Speaker 1: we've seen this year rookie quarterbacks are pretty bad. You 70 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:37,040 Speaker 1: look at Zach Wilson. If you don't have the right 71 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:40,120 Speaker 1: pieces around our guy, you're not really setting them up 72 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 1: to win. You look at Trevor Lawrence. He hasn't looked great. 73 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 1: The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been on the field all 74 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 1: the time. Matt Jones has looked a little better, but 75 00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 1: I mean, for the most part, these these rookie quarterbacks 76 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 1: aren't great. So I can't fathom why this line is 77 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:58,120 Speaker 1: moving other than maybe the Browns injuries. 78 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 2: It feels like a public reaction to hey, we finally 79 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 2: get to see Justin Fields and Andy Dalton sucks, so 80 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 2: anyone's got to be better than him, right, And yeah, 81 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 2: I don't necessarily. 82 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:09,400 Speaker 1: Agree with that. 83 00:04:09,560 --> 00:04:11,840 Speaker 2: We'll come back to that one. I have one of 84 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 2: these sides in my all day parlay in a little while, 85 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 2: but I think that definitely has been interesting to see 86 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:20,360 Speaker 2: that line moving the opposite direction you would normally think 87 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 2: for a rookie starting on the road. Another quarterback that 88 00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:26,920 Speaker 2: we know is out this week, Tua tega Ailoa. He's 89 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 2: that rib injury. Not a great start to the season 90 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:32,920 Speaker 2: when he already missed so much time hurt last year. 91 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:37,039 Speaker 2: Jacoby Brissette will start in Tula's place. I know that 92 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:39,840 Speaker 2: you've got some feelings about Miami on this one as 93 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 2: we head to Vegas. Derek Carr looks healthy. It looks 94 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 2: like he should be good to go. But what do 95 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:45,279 Speaker 2: you think about Brissett and stuff? 96 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:48,839 Speaker 1: TOUA. For me, I don't think as much of a downgrade. 97 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:51,440 Speaker 1: If it's a downgrade at all. Two, it doesn't have 98 00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 1: a lot of arms strip. That's something that Wassett actually has, 99 00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:59,159 Speaker 1: So I think on you give this team a week 100 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:01,680 Speaker 1: to prepare. Ryan Flores is one of the best coaches 101 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:04,080 Speaker 1: in the league, and I don't have a ton of 102 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:06,800 Speaker 1: respect for this Ravens defense. I know there are a 103 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 1: lot better this season, but they played the Baltimore Ravens 104 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 1: who truly struggle to pass the ball, and then honestly, 105 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:17,720 Speaker 1: Baltimore probably wins that game if we don't get multiple 106 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson fumbles. They played the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are 107 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:25,280 Speaker 1: abysmal offense, have problems on the offensive line. You have 108 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 1: to wash them. Roethlisberger to me, this is a spot 109 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 1: where I think Brizzek come in and actually do some damage. 110 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:33,919 Speaker 1: We'll talk about this game a little bit more later. 111 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:36,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I agree with you. I'm not sure that 112 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 2: Brissette is a big downgrade. He's one of the better 113 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:42,760 Speaker 2: backups in the NFL. So it's an interesting spot, especially 114 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 2: as the line moves around on that and that's jumped 115 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 2: all over the place. This week started at minus onan 116 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:50,119 Speaker 2: on the look ahead. I thought up to minus five 117 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 2: at first, and then when the injury news started coming out, 118 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:54,720 Speaker 2: it bounced down back to three and now it's around four. 119 00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:57,640 Speaker 2: It's moon all over the place with all these injuries. 120 00:05:57,720 --> 00:06:01,480 Speaker 2: So a couple other quarterbacks that don't know, we don't 121 00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 2: know yet what will happen with them this week. Ben 122 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:08,840 Speaker 2: Roethlisberger is questionable with an injury. As usual, when isn't 123 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:12,920 Speaker 2: Ben Roethlisberger questionable with an injury. Carson Wentz, speaking of all, 124 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:16,000 Speaker 2: is injured somehow sprained both of his ankles. I think 125 00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 2: on the same play last week, because it's Carson Wentz, 126 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:21,120 Speaker 2: and of course he did so. News out of Colts 127 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:25,040 Speaker 2: camp Jacob Easan is splitting first team reps with Brett Hamley, 128 00:06:25,080 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 2: who literally they just signed off the street, So that's interesting. 129 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 2: What do you make about Wentz or Roethlisberger? They're both 130 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 2: questionable right now. Do you think we'll see either one 131 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:34,000 Speaker 2: of them? 132 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:36,400 Speaker 1: I think we'll see Big Ben just because he's a 133 00:06:36,440 --> 00:06:38,600 Speaker 1: tough cookie. He's always going to make sure he gets 134 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 1: out there. But for Ben, it's a matter of what's 135 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:44,919 Speaker 1: he going to look like because he hasn't looked great 136 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 1: this entire season. We've actually seen some sharp money on 137 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 1: the Cincinnati Bengals at plus three and a half brought 138 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 1: that line down at three. I'm inclined to agree with 139 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:55,840 Speaker 1: the move, but I also think when you look at 140 00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 1: that game, this feels like an under all the way 141 00:06:58,839 --> 00:07:01,080 Speaker 1: we've seen this, we've seen sharp money on the total 142 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:03,800 Speaker 1: as well. I believe this total was at forty five 143 00:07:03,839 --> 00:07:07,159 Speaker 1: and a half and we're seeing that down to forty 144 00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 1: three and a half. So I don't see either of 145 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:12,720 Speaker 1: these teams particularly scoring. So I think that's the way 146 00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:14,640 Speaker 1: to look when you're looking at that game. I'm not 147 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 1: expecting a huge performance from Big Ben at all. 148 00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, I do think both these guys play Carson, and 149 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 2: Wentz's career is starting to reflect Big Ben a little bit, 150 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:27,240 Speaker 2: just in a like a worse, much worse version we forgot. 151 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 2: You know, he did get the Super Bowl early, but 152 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:31,800 Speaker 2: it wasn't him, but kind of peaking early. But that 153 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 2: big quarterback that holds the ball takes a few too 154 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 2: many hits is kind of all is injured. And obviously 155 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:41,520 Speaker 2: I'm not saying Wentz is Big Ben. Roethlisberger is a 156 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:44,120 Speaker 2: Hall of Famer and once my guy, probably not going 157 00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 2: to get there at this point, but I do think 158 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:49,400 Speaker 2: both of them play. Wentz and the Colts are playing 159 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:52,040 Speaker 2: in Tennessee in a game that they really need him 160 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 2: out there for. They really need to just stay in 161 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:57,400 Speaker 2: that one let that division get away from them. So 162 00:07:57,680 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 2: definitely some quarterbacks to keep an on for him. You 163 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 2: had a couple other line moves that you wanted to 164 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 2: comment down quickly. What else caught your eye this week? 165 00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:08,040 Speaker 1: I think the biggest line move that caught my eyes 166 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 1: Buffalo minus nine and a half, that was down to 167 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:13,600 Speaker 1: seven and a half. I think that's a really really 168 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:17,320 Speaker 1: interesting game for me. I'm kind of struggling with it. 169 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 1: Taylor Hennikey his first roll start. You look at Buffalo, 170 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:23,960 Speaker 1: I mean, Josh Allen really struggled and regress this season. 171 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 1: He doesn't look like the same guy from last year. 172 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: When I look at Washington at that front seven, that 173 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 1: they're not doing the damage that we thought they would 174 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 1: and their secondary really isn't hold up behind that defensive line. 175 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:42,679 Speaker 1: And this is a game where it wouldn't surprise me 176 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 1: to see Josh Allen return the form like it at nine, 177 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:48,520 Speaker 1: but at seven, I'm not looking to play it. It's 178 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 1: a stay away from me at this point. 179 00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:53,559 Speaker 2: Guy likeded a lot at nine. To me, this is 180 00:08:53,600 --> 00:08:55,960 Speaker 2: a game that it wouldn't totally shocked me to see 181 00:08:56,320 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 2: Washington pulled the upset. I think that it can easily 182 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:03,840 Speaker 2: turn out to be a lower scoring, close sort of game. 183 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 2: I like Hanekey better. With an extra few days to 184 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 2: prepare after they're off the Thursday game, that's always a 185 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 2: good thing to keep an eye on with just those 186 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:15,240 Speaker 2: extra days of rest and preparation. And yeah, maybe this 187 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 2: is a Josh Allen get right game, but maybe it's 188 00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:20,120 Speaker 2: a Washington defense get right game. They're going to be 189 00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:23,160 Speaker 2: coming after him and he has not really been performing well. 190 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:26,600 Speaker 2: And I have about as much confidence in Chase Young 191 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:28,560 Speaker 2: and Montes Sweat as I do on the other end 192 00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 2: of that. So I would caution at seven and a half, 193 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:34,400 Speaker 2: it's going to be a spot where it'll be tempting 194 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 2: to put that into a teaser. I would caution against that. 195 00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:40,000 Speaker 2: You know, the Bills could lose this and there are 196 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 2: other better tease spots I think for me this week. 197 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 2: But you had one other total that you want to 198 00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:47,440 Speaker 2: comment on. What's the other one that's moved. 199 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 1: We got the Green Bay Packers San Francisco forty nine ers. 200 00:09:51,320 --> 00:09:54,959 Speaker 1: This line opened at forty eight. We're now up to fifty. 201 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:57,560 Speaker 1: I still like this game to go over when you 202 00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:00,160 Speaker 1: look at the differensive issues on the with the San 203 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:02,960 Speaker 1: Francisco forty nine ers, they're completely banged up. They were 204 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:04,840 Speaker 1: able to move the ball. They had had six point 205 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:08,239 Speaker 1: h yards per play, six point eight yards per pass, 206 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:11,560 Speaker 1: five point two yards per rush, So I mean they 207 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:13,560 Speaker 1: had their opportunities to score. I mean I like the 208 00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:15,800 Speaker 1: Packers to put up some points. But at the same time, 209 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:19,439 Speaker 1: as we saw Monday night, the Packers can't stop a nosebleek. 210 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 1: Jerrick Goff was moving up and down the field at 211 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 1: will and we've seen this forty nine Ers team dominate 212 00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 1: the Packers. If you look in twenty nineteen and they 213 00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:33,280 Speaker 1: played twice, they basically ran the ball down their throat. 214 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:35,959 Speaker 1: They were able to pass. I have no respect for 215 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:38,559 Speaker 1: this Packers defense. A Sunday night shootout. I mean, right 216 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 1: now we're looking at prime time OVERTS at six to oh. 217 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 1: I'm not sure if this Carolina game is gonna go 218 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:50,520 Speaker 1: over or under because we're actually recording on Thursday afternoon, 219 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:54,319 Speaker 1: but the next prime time game is the Packers in 220 00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:57,239 Speaker 1: the forty nine ers, and we could be looking at 221 00:10:57,480 --> 00:10:59,560 Speaker 1: either eight to o or seven to one because I 222 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:00,719 Speaker 1: think this game going over. 223 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:04,120 Speaker 2: So yeah, I definitely expect some points on that I 224 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 2: will be putting into my all day parlist. So we'll 225 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:08,720 Speaker 2: come back to that. But let's get to some of 226 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:13,480 Speaker 2: our favorite picks for the week. So Rahim, how are 227 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:15,360 Speaker 2: you fading the public this week? 228 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:20,360 Speaker 1: It's time to fade the public. The Los Angeles Rams 229 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 1: plus one and a half. Right now, we have seventy 230 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 1: six percent of the public all over the defending Super 231 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:31,800 Speaker 1: Bowl champions, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tom Brady is like a 232 00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 1: Linzo from training Day. You give him eighteen months. He'll 233 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 1: give you a career. It doesn't matter who he has 234 00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:40,600 Speaker 1: out there with him, whether it's Dion Branch, whether it's 235 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:44,760 Speaker 1: Antonio Brown, Frankowski. You want to take a wild guess 236 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:47,640 Speaker 1: on what percentage of the time teams pass the ball 237 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:49,679 Speaker 1: against the Buccaneers this season. 238 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:53,120 Speaker 2: Well, I know the Cowboys sure didn't do much running 239 00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 2: in the first game, so I'm gonna guess pretty high. 240 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 2: I will say seventy five percent. 241 00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 1: Pass on point this season. Teams are passing seventy seven 242 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 1: percent at the time against this Buccaneers defense. And why 243 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:13,200 Speaker 1: is because this Buccaneers defense pass two seasons. It's very 244 00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 1: tough to run on them, but you can pass on 245 00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 1: them because they're banged up. The Rams were fifty one 246 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:23,200 Speaker 1: percent run on early downs. Sean McVay is smart enough 247 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:25,240 Speaker 1: to know how to attack this team. He passed on 248 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:28,320 Speaker 1: seventy seven percent of early downs, that's first and second 249 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:31,200 Speaker 1: down last year. And now you got to upgrade a 250 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:35,600 Speaker 1: quarterback with Matthew Stafford, this offense can they can pass 251 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:38,520 Speaker 1: the ball. The Rams are second and drop back expected 252 00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:41,520 Speaker 1: points added and they're facing a Bucks defense which is 253 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 1: twenty first and passing success rate, So you had a 254 00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:48,880 Speaker 1: lot of sharp and professional money come in and move 255 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:52,720 Speaker 1: this line from rams minus one and a half to 256 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:55,280 Speaker 1: now we're sitting at rams plus one and a half. 257 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:58,320 Speaker 1: I personally agree with the opening number. I know all 258 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:01,320 Speaker 1: professional gamblers, they're not all just sitting in this one 259 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:06,840 Speaker 1: cave all agreeing on one specific bet. You're gonna have 260 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:09,520 Speaker 1: guys on both sides. But me, personally, I think with 261 00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:12,760 Speaker 1: this Buccaneers team, they don't have struggle. They don't have troubles. 262 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 1: Stop in the rams and if you give me one 263 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:17,840 Speaker 1: and a half points at home with Matthew Stafford in 264 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:20,400 Speaker 1: his RAMS offense, I like it. 265 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:26,600 Speaker 3: The Action Network podcast is proudly presented by BETMGM, and 266 00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:30,240 Speaker 3: to celebrate the twenty twenty one NFL season, BETMGM is 267 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:33,240 Speaker 3: offering a great sign up offer for our listeners, a 268 00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:37,120 Speaker 3: one thousand dollars risk free first bet. You just open 269 00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:39,680 Speaker 3: an account at bet mgm and make your first deposit, 270 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:43,160 Speaker 3: then make your first bet. 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Let's get back to the show. 296 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 2: Yes, I am back to being Captain p Public for 297 00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:02,720 Speaker 2: the second straight week here. It did not work out 298 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:04,600 Speaker 2: well for me last week. But let me make the 299 00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:08,600 Speaker 2: case for Tampa. And I mean I feel like, really 300 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:10,400 Speaker 2: you made the case for Tampa. The case sort of 301 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:13,760 Speaker 2: makes itself. It's Tom Brady, it's all those weapons, it's 302 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:16,720 Speaker 2: the Bucks. This team has now for the first NFL 303 00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:19,560 Speaker 2: team in history, they've won nine games in a row. 304 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:22,840 Speaker 2: All nine games they've scored at least thirty points, and 305 00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:24,960 Speaker 2: only three of those are even home games, so they're 306 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 2: doing this on the road. And also one of those 307 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:29,880 Speaker 2: is the Super Bowl. We're counting postseason in there. These 308 00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:33,360 Speaker 2: are real games against real competition, and they're just scoring 309 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:36,840 Speaker 2: a ton of points. You know, last week against the Falcons, 310 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:40,680 Speaker 2: they struggled a little bit sort of and then suddenly 311 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:43,840 Speaker 2: blew the game wide open, but really they dominated the. 312 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:48,480 Speaker 1: Whole They blew the game wide open because Matthew Ryan 313 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 1: threw back to back pick six is to the same 314 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 1: exact guy. Who's the last time you saw that? Like 315 00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:57,440 Speaker 1: what is this groundhog Day or something. Yeah, that was 316 00:15:57,840 --> 00:15:58,280 Speaker 1: not fun. 317 00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:00,840 Speaker 2: I was on the Falcons plus thirty last week and 318 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:04,240 Speaker 2: feeling pretty good and then that just disappeared in a hurry. 319 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:08,200 Speaker 2: And but earlier that game, though Atlanta really shouldn't have 320 00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:10,320 Speaker 2: even been that close, still, Tampa had a couple other 321 00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:13,240 Speaker 2: opportunities to really blow things open, and then a couple 322 00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:16,280 Speaker 2: of uncharacteristic turnovers and things that left the game a 323 00:16:16,280 --> 00:16:18,240 Speaker 2: little closer than it should have looked. And then I 324 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:21,120 Speaker 2: think the finals score ended up being, you know, not 325 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 2: so far off from what actually maybe should have been. 326 00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 2: But Tampa just they felt like a team in that 327 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:29,920 Speaker 2: game they could just name their number, whatever points they 328 00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:32,360 Speaker 2: want to score. They could just like have a locker 329 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 2: room conversation. Oh, forty eight, you want forty eight today? Great, 330 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:36,840 Speaker 2: let's do forty eight. How should we get there? Gronk, 331 00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:40,800 Speaker 2: you want a couple? Mike Evans, you want a couple. Well, 332 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 2: let's just spread around everyone a little bit of love. 333 00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:45,840 Speaker 2: Antonio Brown, you're out this week? Hey, how about Chris Godwin? 334 00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:47,280 Speaker 2: Three touchdowns? You want three this week? 335 00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:47,640 Speaker 1: Chris? 336 00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 2: Like, there's just there's so many weapons there and this 337 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:54,760 Speaker 2: team right now is just a regular season juggernaut, and 338 00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:56,840 Speaker 2: I don't want to bet against them. So this was 339 00:16:56,880 --> 00:16:59,760 Speaker 2: my hot read this week because I couldn't believe that 340 00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 2: we're putting a team this hot, this good, this loaded 341 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 2: on both sides of the ball as underdogs. They're not 342 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 2: underdogs anymore. But the line moved off enough that we 343 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:13,199 Speaker 2: lost a teaser opportunity, but not enough to throw me 344 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 2: off the scent here. I know everyone is all over 345 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 2: this one, but as you said, sometimes the public also 346 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:22,680 Speaker 2: includes the professionals. They're also helping to move the line 347 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:26,040 Speaker 2: a little bit on this. And we've seen the Rams 348 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:29,199 Speaker 2: defense struggle against the Colts and the Bears. Both of 349 00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:31,479 Speaker 2: them move the ball on the Rams and it kind 350 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:33,600 Speaker 2: of stoleed in the red zone. Guess who's not gonna 351 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:35,720 Speaker 2: stole in the red zone, Tom Brady when he's got 352 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:39,960 Speaker 2: Gronk and Evans and Godwin, all those guys. So I 353 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:43,639 Speaker 2: think that if this game is close, I feel like 354 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:46,000 Speaker 2: it's one of those where it's, you know, it's the 355 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:49,119 Speaker 2: game of the week, and Tony Romo is going ballistic 356 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:52,399 Speaker 2: calling on every play beforehand, and it's, you know, a 357 00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:55,359 Speaker 2: field goal game coming down to the last possession. I 358 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 2: can see that for sure, but it's coming on. In 359 00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:00,280 Speaker 2: the last posion, do you want Matt Stafford playing like 360 00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 2: the first relevant game of his entire life or do 361 00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:05,640 Speaker 2: you want Tom Brady. I'll take Tom Brady. So if 362 00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 2: that's the public side, I'm happy to stick with the 363 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:08,600 Speaker 2: public side. 364 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:12,440 Speaker 1: You have an all day parlay coming, so I would 365 00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:14,600 Speaker 1: love that. I think. I imagine you had the books 366 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 1: in that parlays that you love him so much. I do. 367 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 1: I do. 368 00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:19,840 Speaker 2: We actually have talked about all three of my teams 369 00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:23,640 Speaker 2: in my all day parlay, and by the way, off 370 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:26,359 Speaker 2: to a rough start on our all day parlay last week. 371 00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:30,560 Speaker 2: All three of our picks lost. So the good news 372 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:33,160 Speaker 2: is that parlays only count as one pick, so we're 373 00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:36,200 Speaker 2: just owing one. It's a simple loss. We're playing parlays 374 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:39,359 Speaker 2: at plus five plus six hundred. Look, it's a minus 375 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:41,280 Speaker 2: ev bat. We're having a little fun here. But we 376 00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:43,080 Speaker 2: don't have to win every week. We've got to win 377 00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:45,960 Speaker 2: once every five or six weeks to pay off, maybe 378 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:47,600 Speaker 2: even a little less if we hit a big one 379 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:50,760 Speaker 2: at some point. So it's a little long game. We're 380 00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:53,800 Speaker 2: taking it easy. So here's where I'm going this week 381 00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 2: for All Day parlay early afternoon games. I love the Browns. 382 00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:02,120 Speaker 2: Brown's minus seven. We talked about that one earlier. As 383 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:04,760 Speaker 2: much as it's been crazy to not have feel out 384 00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:07,920 Speaker 2: there for Dalton, one thing that I was surprised to 385 00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:11,840 Speaker 2: find out this week Andy Dalton consistently gets the ball 386 00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:15,160 Speaker 2: out among the fastest time of any quarterback in the league. 387 00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:17,120 Speaker 2: He's about two and a half seconds a throw. He's 388 00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:21,400 Speaker 2: been top five fewest seconds per throw in five straight seasons. 389 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:24,399 Speaker 2: Justin Fields does not do that. That was one of 390 00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:26,639 Speaker 2: the critiques for him coming out of the draft, that 391 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:29,640 Speaker 2: he's a little slow processing and making decisions and he's 392 00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:32,679 Speaker 2: got a bit of a wind up throw. So now 393 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:35,040 Speaker 2: you take a guy who know that the offensive line 394 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:37,840 Speaker 2: in Chicago is not good. They're not protecting, they're not 395 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:41,040 Speaker 2: getting a lot of time. Miles Garrett and Jadavian Clowney 396 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 2: are coming off the edge. It's a road game in 397 00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:46,720 Speaker 2: your first professional start, and so you got the crowd 398 00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:49,840 Speaker 2: noise bearing in, and that just to me all adds 399 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:53,240 Speaker 2: up to just a lot of pressure and a rough 400 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:56,400 Speaker 2: spot for a young quarterback in his first start. He's 401 00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:58,960 Speaker 2: returning to Ohio, so that's a pressure spy. He's gonna 402 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:01,119 Speaker 2: have a lot of folks in this Dan rooting them on, 403 00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:04,160 Speaker 2: and so I like the Browns there. I can't believe 404 00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:07,159 Speaker 2: that it's minus seven. I definitely want to grab that 405 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,120 Speaker 2: one before we lose the hook. I honestly thought this 406 00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:12,880 Speaker 2: line when when Dalton was gonna be playing. I thought 407 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:15,040 Speaker 2: this line might move closer to two touchdowns, so we're 408 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:15,720 Speaker 2: gonna get one. 409 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 1: I'm on it. 410 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,800 Speaker 2: Fox are my late afternoon pick. I'll take it right 411 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 2: now at one point five. If it moves a little 412 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:24,119 Speaker 2: bit more by the time you get this in. If 413 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:26,000 Speaker 2: it's at two or two and a half, I might 414 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:29,000 Speaker 2: recommend switching to the money line at that point just 415 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:31,520 Speaker 2: to be safe. It's a parlay, so we're gonna get 416 00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:34,600 Speaker 2: odds anyway, but I'll take it at minus one at 417 00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:37,400 Speaker 2: bet MGM right now, taking that and then the night 418 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:40,480 Speaker 2: game we talked about Packers forty nine ers. I don't 419 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:42,919 Speaker 2: want to be on either side of this game. Green 420 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 2: Bay three and a half point underdog feels too good 421 00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:49,760 Speaker 2: to pass on, which is exactly why I'm passing on it, 422 00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:52,040 Speaker 2: because it just sounds a little too scary to me. 423 00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:54,480 Speaker 2: So I'm gonna stay away from the sides instead. I 424 00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:57,000 Speaker 2: like this one Packers and forty nine ers both to 425 00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,879 Speaker 2: score at least twenty points. You talked about that that 426 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,240 Speaker 2: total is going up even though there's a little bit 427 00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:04,600 Speaker 2: of weather there. There's no way these teams aren't scoring twenty. 428 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:06,919 Speaker 2: The defenses aren't very good, there's a lot of injuries. 429 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:09,280 Speaker 2: That one's at minus one thirty five, so you're paying 430 00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:11,440 Speaker 2: a little bit of juice. But again, it's a parlay. 431 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:14,680 Speaker 2: We're putting these all odds all together. So Browns minus 432 00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:18,400 Speaker 2: seven bucks minus one, Packers and forty nine ers each 433 00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:22,040 Speaker 2: to score twenty parlay that together at bet MGM, and 434 00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:25,159 Speaker 2: we're at plus five thirty four. So one hundred dollars 435 00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:28,120 Speaker 2: wins you six hundred and thirty four dollars. We will 436 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:30,200 Speaker 2: be on the board with our first all day parlay 437 00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:30,800 Speaker 2: win of the year. 438 00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:33,359 Speaker 1: What do you think outside of the books, I think 439 00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:35,640 Speaker 1: I'm with you. I'm not mad at that at all. 440 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:37,359 Speaker 2: All right, he's in on the Browns, he's in on 441 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:39,200 Speaker 2: the on the night game. We got two of three. 442 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 2: We just gotta gotta win another one. But since we're 443 00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,359 Speaker 2: head to head on that one, raheem, are you ready 444 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:47,679 Speaker 2: to take me on in our game of the. 445 00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:52,720 Speaker 1: Week cliche and you wont fea should me bring the 446 00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:56,440 Speaker 1: Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs really haven't been bringing 447 00:21:56,480 --> 00:22:00,320 Speaker 1: in your money. You just won eleven in one in 448 00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:03,520 Speaker 1: the last thirteen games. But this is a market, and 449 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:06,480 Speaker 1: I do believe the market has finally caught up to 450 00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:10,560 Speaker 1: the Chiefs consistently finding themselves in one score games. If 451 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:13,359 Speaker 1: the market is efficient, and given how tight these NFL 452 00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:16,159 Speaker 1: numbers are, we're at a by low point for the 453 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:18,560 Speaker 1: Chiefs and the Chiefs to eventually start covering some of 454 00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:21,800 Speaker 1: these games going forward. Still third in points per game 455 00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:24,800 Speaker 1: thirty four points a game. The first EPA per player 456 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:28,600 Speaker 1: third offense is success rate, and it's clear that if 457 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 1: you're going to play the Chiefs, you're gonna need to 458 00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 1: put up forty points to be competitive to try to 459 00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:36,359 Speaker 1: win that game. Now we look at Justin Herbert, he 460 00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,560 Speaker 1: looks like he could be one of the best quarterbacks 461 00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:41,960 Speaker 1: in the league for the future. But I don't think 462 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:45,879 Speaker 1: they're quite there yet. And even against this Chiefs defense, 463 00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:49,760 Speaker 1: which is thirty second in defensive success rate, they're allowing 464 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:53,679 Speaker 1: of wapping fifty nine point two percent of plays to 465 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:57,359 Speaker 1: be great out as successful. I'm not sure that the 466 00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:01,080 Speaker 1: Chargers can actually capitalize on the same manner that we 467 00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:05,119 Speaker 1: saw from other teams. Like look, this chief defense, they 468 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 1: primarily struggled to stop in the run. They have a 469 00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:11,199 Speaker 1: fifty nine percent defensive success rate against the run, and 470 00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:15,359 Speaker 1: they played the Cowboys and the Washington football team. So 471 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:17,960 Speaker 1: I don't have a lot of hope for this team. 472 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,000 Speaker 1: And thirty first in the red zone out of your 473 00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:23,240 Speaker 1: ten red zone attempts, they scored touchdowns on just three 474 00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:26,280 Speaker 1: of them. Struggle with penalties, and then you upgraded the coach. 475 00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:30,240 Speaker 1: But this is the same undisciplined Chargers team which has 476 00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:34,359 Speaker 1: failed to really put the whole thing together. They should 477 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:36,080 Speaker 1: be able to win this game by touchdown at six 478 00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:38,680 Speaker 1: and a half. I really like this line and is 479 00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:42,119 Speaker 1: actually moving as we speak. Seventh have hit the market 480 00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:44,800 Speaker 1: on the Kansas City Chiefs. But if you can get 481 00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:47,359 Speaker 1: this under a touchdown, I'm all over the Chiefs. What 482 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:47,840 Speaker 1: do you think? 483 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:51,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, I actually think this is a perfect vilot on 484 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,360 Speaker 2: the Chargers. A lot of the reasons I decided we're 485 00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:56,640 Speaker 2: looking at the teams that have struggled in the red zone, 486 00:23:56,680 --> 00:24:00,719 Speaker 2: that struggle with penalties. To me, though, that's not necessarily 487 00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,120 Speaker 2: This is just the same old Chargers doing their same 488 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:06,440 Speaker 2: old thing. This is a young quarterback who's only started 489 00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:09,760 Speaker 2: sixteen games. His first start came a year ago against 490 00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:13,639 Speaker 2: Kansas City, and he almost won that game. They the 491 00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,240 Speaker 2: Chargers were leading and the Chiefs needed a field goal 492 00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:17,919 Speaker 2: on the last play of the game and another one 493 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,119 Speaker 2: in overtime to steal the win. And we know how 494 00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:22,159 Speaker 2: invincible the Chiefs have been in the regular season. So 495 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:27,119 Speaker 2: that was Herbert's very first game ever. And this is 496 00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:29,359 Speaker 2: not necessarily to me, a Chargers team that's just the 497 00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:31,919 Speaker 2: same old one. It's a team that has a new coach, 498 00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:35,080 Speaker 2: an extraordinarily young coach. Dude, every time I see that 499 00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:36,920 Speaker 2: guy over in the sideline, I'm like, who's this high 500 00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:40,160 Speaker 2: schooler coaching over here? Brandon Staley? But I love the man. 501 00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:44,200 Speaker 2: I like how Staley's defense shapes up against this Kansas 502 00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:46,680 Speaker 2: City attack. So there's been a lot of talk about 503 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:49,679 Speaker 2: they play the too high defense, so that means dropping 504 00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:53,200 Speaker 2: two safeties, and like, if you watch Monday Night, you 505 00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:54,879 Speaker 2: saw a lot of this. Detroit was playing a lot 506 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:58,000 Speaker 2: of too high and what happened. You're taking away the 507 00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:00,400 Speaker 2: deep play, which you gotta do with Tyreek Kill and 508 00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:04,080 Speaker 2: Mikole Hardman, and you're basically saying, like Peyton Manning, if 509 00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:05,719 Speaker 2: you watched him talking about he was talking about how 510 00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:08,159 Speaker 2: frustrating it is, you just got to be patient and 511 00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,240 Speaker 2: check down and audible to the run play. We talked 512 00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:13,879 Speaker 2: about the Chargers run defense, how bad it is. I 513 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:17,879 Speaker 2: think the Charges run defense is bad by design. They're 514 00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:20,879 Speaker 2: challenging teams. Go ahead, eat your heart out, run the 515 00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:23,400 Speaker 2: ball all you want. We're going to play the pass. 516 00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:25,840 Speaker 2: We're going to take away the deep play. And I 517 00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:28,639 Speaker 2: don't like how that shaps up for Patrick Mahomes. The 518 00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:31,560 Speaker 2: Chiefs don't want to just check down and throw three 519 00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:34,400 Speaker 2: year passes and hand the ball off all game long. 520 00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,160 Speaker 2: That's not Chiefs football. They want to dial it up deep, 521 00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:41,880 Speaker 2: and Mahomes is aggressive. I think to force something, try 522 00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:45,200 Speaker 2: to make that big play. I don't know that Mahomes 523 00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:47,720 Speaker 2: is what Aaron Rodgers is. Rogers just handed off all 524 00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:50,320 Speaker 2: game and took care of the lines, and eventually that one, 525 00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:52,199 Speaker 2: you know, that exploded in the second half and it 526 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:55,040 Speaker 2: was easy for them. But I wonder if Mahomes might 527 00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:58,879 Speaker 2: actually struggle a little bit and get frustrated trying to 528 00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:01,240 Speaker 2: look for that big play for something in there. 529 00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:01,760 Speaker 1: A little bit. 530 00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:05,080 Speaker 2: Mahomes against the Chargers in his career four and two, 531 00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:08,439 Speaker 2: but only a plus twelve point differential, and five of 532 00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:11,199 Speaker 2: those six games have been close down to the final minutes. So, 533 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,919 Speaker 2: like you said, the Chiefs, they have outside of a 534 00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:18,840 Speaker 2: Week seventeen game last year that was inconsequential, the Chiefs 535 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:21,800 Speaker 2: have played in nine straight one score games. They're eight 536 00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:24,439 Speaker 2: and one in those games, but one in eight against 537 00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:28,080 Speaker 2: the spread. So, especially at plus seven, I love the 538 00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:29,800 Speaker 2: Chargers in the spot. This is one of my favorite 539 00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,280 Speaker 2: few bets of the week. I'm not only playing the 540 00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:34,879 Speaker 2: plus seven, I'm playing the money line. I think the 541 00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:38,320 Speaker 2: Chargers can win this game outright. It's my upset special 542 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:40,480 Speaker 2: Week three. It's at plus two fifty on the money 543 00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:42,960 Speaker 2: line right now. I'll play the spread too because I 544 00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:45,320 Speaker 2: feel pretty good about that, but I'm gonna sprinkle on 545 00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:47,840 Speaker 2: the upset. I think Herbert can go ahead to head 546 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:49,920 Speaker 2: with Mahomes. I think they can take them down. 547 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:53,800 Speaker 1: I think you're crazy when you look at the Chargers team. 548 00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:58,400 Speaker 1: They're making a living on third down. It's like how 549 00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:01,520 Speaker 1: much is they going to continue? They're converting a league 550 00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:05,040 Speaker 1: high sixty one point two non presentative third downs, and 551 00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:08,480 Speaker 1: they're struggling it on early games. So when that third 552 00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:12,400 Speaker 1: down rate regresses, you're looking at a team that really 553 00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:16,479 Speaker 1: struggles to move the chains. And I just I'm just 554 00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:20,240 Speaker 1: not seeing it like I like. To me, this Chargers team, 555 00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:25,240 Speaker 1: they could legitimately be owing two right, and the Chiefs 556 00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:28,480 Speaker 1: they could. But I'm just saying, and Antonio Gibson doesn't 557 00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:30,000 Speaker 1: fumble the ball, they're owing two right. 558 00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 2: That's fair. But the Chargers also, both of these teams 559 00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:36,520 Speaker 2: could have won or lost both of their that's fair. 560 00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:38,080 Speaker 1: So and I would say this too. 561 00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:40,800 Speaker 2: Your point about the third down regression for the Charger 562 00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,520 Speaker 2: is very good point. I think that that's coming. What 563 00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,440 Speaker 2: I'm seeing is that all the other negative stuff they're 564 00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,640 Speaker 2: doing is also going to regress positively. So they're gonna 565 00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:51,800 Speaker 2: be better on those early downs, they're going to get 566 00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:54,240 Speaker 2: rid of some of those penalties, they're gonna be better 567 00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:57,239 Speaker 2: in the red zone. Those are all regression candidates too. 568 00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:00,639 Speaker 2: So as the third down efficiency does disappear, there's a 569 00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,520 Speaker 2: lot of those other things. Like right now, to me, 570 00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:05,520 Speaker 2: the third down is the outlier they're barely hanging on 571 00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:08,480 Speaker 2: because of that I actually see the untapped potential in 572 00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:10,439 Speaker 2: this team that there's more that they're going to get to. 573 00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:13,320 Speaker 2: And I'm kind of just betting on that. You said 574 00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:15,720 Speaker 2: they haven't put it all together yet. To me, this 575 00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:18,200 Speaker 2: could be the game where they put it together, and 576 00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:20,480 Speaker 2: this could be the team that we're suddenly talking about 577 00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:22,919 Speaker 2: as the buzz team, Like, man, look at Staley, look 578 00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:25,720 Speaker 2: at that defense, how they come together, look at Herbert. 579 00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:28,520 Speaker 2: I feel like that could be the Monday morning conversation 580 00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:31,359 Speaker 2: if this one comes together. But we will see. I 581 00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:33,520 Speaker 2: want to know in our take me on games. I 582 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:35,880 Speaker 2: got a weird, fluky win by the forty nine ers 583 00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:38,160 Speaker 2: over the Eagles last week, so I won't take too 584 00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:40,320 Speaker 2: much credit for that. That was a weird game. But 585 00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:42,160 Speaker 2: we'll see if you can even things up on that 586 00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:47,960 Speaker 2: one this week. So let's go back to the future. 587 00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:58,000 Speaker 1: Friday Futures comes from the future. Then tell me the future, boy, 588 00:28:58,400 --> 00:28:59,960 Speaker 1: what kind of cute do you call that? 589 00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:04,200 Speaker 2: If you thought I was crazy for that last one, boy, 590 00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:07,400 Speaker 2: you are going to just love these. So an article 591 00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:10,040 Speaker 2: come out at Action Network this week on oh and 592 00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:14,080 Speaker 2: two teams traditionally about ten or twelve percent, somewhere in 593 00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:16,320 Speaker 2: that range on oh and two teams make the playoffs 594 00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:19,239 Speaker 2: depending on where you cut things off at. So this 595 00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:21,360 Speaker 2: year there are seven teams who are zho and two, 596 00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:24,080 Speaker 2: and both of my futures are futures on those teams, 597 00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:27,360 Speaker 2: ten or twelve percent out of seven teams. That's about 598 00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,200 Speaker 2: one out of the seven, especially when you consider that 599 00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:32,520 Speaker 2: the playoffs expanded last year, so we got a little 600 00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,400 Speaker 2: more wiggle room. That early two game hole isn't quite 601 00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:37,800 Speaker 2: as bad as it used to be. So there's seven teams. 602 00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,560 Speaker 2: The obvious oh and two teams make the playoffs are 603 00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:42,800 Speaker 2: the Colts and the Vikings. I don't like it. You 604 00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:45,479 Speaker 2: can read it on the article why maybe they make it? 605 00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:48,280 Speaker 2: They're they're clearly the two best teams. I don't like 606 00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:51,360 Speaker 2: the value there. I'm not touching the Lions, the dieguars 607 00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:53,800 Speaker 2: of the Giants, No, thank you. The team that I 608 00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:55,800 Speaker 2: think is going to make the playoffs at oh and 609 00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:58,400 Speaker 2: two right now, they're plus seven hundred. You can find 610 00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:01,640 Speaker 2: it out as high as plus one thousand, the Atlanta Falcons. 611 00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:05,360 Speaker 2: So it's been ugly so far. They lost by three 612 00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:08,800 Speaker 2: in both of their games, but it didn't look it 613 00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,360 Speaker 2: wasn't quite as bad as things looked they lost by 614 00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:14,440 Speaker 2: that much because they were aggressive and they were playing 615 00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:17,640 Speaker 2: close games, you know, deep into the third quarter, and 616 00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:20,560 Speaker 2: then things really blew up once it got away from them. 617 00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:24,360 Speaker 2: So the Atlanta has struggled on third down and fourth 618 00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:27,840 Speaker 2: down and in the red zone, and that's again the 619 00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:30,400 Speaker 2: aggression spot. You know, they've got a new coach and 620 00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:32,960 Speaker 2: Arthur Smith. They're still kind of figuring the offense out. 621 00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:34,960 Speaker 2: I like them to figure that out a little bit better. 622 00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:38,160 Speaker 2: Matt Ryan Calvin and Ridley Kyle Pitts. They've had their moments. 623 00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:41,080 Speaker 2: They're moving the ball at times and then just disappearing 624 00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:44,360 Speaker 2: at other times. So I like what the offense could 625 00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:47,080 Speaker 2: shape up to once they hang of things. The defense 626 00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:49,320 Speaker 2: has not been bad. Dean Pis has coached them up. 627 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:51,960 Speaker 2: They're doing a little bit better. And here's the thing 628 00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:54,720 Speaker 2: with these ower and two teams. The typical thing you 629 00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:57,800 Speaker 2: have to look at is the schedule. That's why I 630 00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:01,040 Speaker 2: don't love Minnesota Indianapolis here again, check that on the article. 631 00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:04,120 Speaker 2: That's why I do love Atlanta. Here's the next four 632 00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:08,760 Speaker 2: games for Atlanta. They play the Giants, Washington, the Jets, 633 00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:12,400 Speaker 2: and the Dolphins. That's a very winnable next month for 634 00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:15,560 Speaker 2: the Falcons. That's to me, that's totally a path to 635 00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:17,280 Speaker 2: three and three, even four and two. If they get 636 00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:20,480 Speaker 2: those games. They still play the Lions and the Jaguars 637 00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,040 Speaker 2: down the stretch, that's two more wins. They play the 638 00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:27,400 Speaker 2: Saints and the Panthers four times. Those are very winnable games. 639 00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:29,600 Speaker 2: They can easily win a couple maybe three of those. 640 00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:33,720 Speaker 2: This is a team that has a shot in every game. 641 00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:35,520 Speaker 2: They're talented and not be in there. That's what's so 642 00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:37,880 Speaker 2: frustrating about them, because that was in it and then 643 00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:41,320 Speaker 2: they lose it. But at seven to one, even ten 644 00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:45,560 Speaker 2: to one, this is the time. With the Giants, Washington Jets, 645 00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:48,200 Speaker 2: Dolphins stretch coming up, it's this is the time to 646 00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:52,640 Speaker 2: invest Atlanta Falcons to make the playoffs. Am I crazy? 647 00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:55,960 Speaker 1: I think you're completely crazy. This team doesn't have a 648 00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:59,280 Speaker 1: good olphensive one. They don't have a solid defense. To me, 649 00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:04,120 Speaker 1: Matthew Lion is like he's Larry Holmes status, flabby and sick. 650 00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,560 Speaker 1: He probably should be taken out back at this point. 651 00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:11,520 Speaker 1: They go offensive line, they need so much work. You 652 00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:14,880 Speaker 1: say that they're winning, they have winnable games, But to me, 653 00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:18,320 Speaker 1: with the defensive line of the Washington and the Dolphins. 654 00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:21,440 Speaker 1: I don't see how those are winnable games when you 655 00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:24,360 Speaker 1: compare their offensive line versus the defensive line. I'm big 656 00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:28,080 Speaker 1: on handicap the offensive line defensive line matchups. I think 657 00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:30,040 Speaker 1: this is a team that's going to really struggle this 658 00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:34,840 Speaker 1: year and Arthur Smith's first season, and they're gonna have 659 00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,960 Speaker 1: to really rebuild this whole roster because I'm just not seeing. 660 00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:41,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's fair, it's ten to one. I think that 661 00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:44,640 Speaker 2: there's an avenue where the offense clicks, the weapons come together, 662 00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:48,840 Speaker 2: and the schedule is soft, and the NFC playoff race 663 00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:51,080 Speaker 2: is shaping up a little softer than I expected it to. 664 00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:53,640 Speaker 2: If you look around at the wild card race, the 665 00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:56,720 Speaker 2: NFC West is loaded and it seems like they probably 666 00:32:56,760 --> 00:32:59,200 Speaker 2: pick up two of those three wild cards. But there's 667 00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:01,280 Speaker 2: really not another old card right now. I don't love 668 00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:04,920 Speaker 2: an NFC East team. I don't love Minnesota, and then 669 00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:07,880 Speaker 2: the Saints are the Panthers. Carolina's looking good right now, 670 00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:10,240 Speaker 2: but we'll see if it lasts. To me, there's a 671 00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:12,400 Speaker 2: wild card spot that might be available. So that's kind 672 00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:14,720 Speaker 2: of what I'm shooting on with Atlanta. But week so 673 00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:17,440 Speaker 2: Let's wrap up with a couple other best bets. My 674 00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:19,600 Speaker 2: column this week where I picked every game I talked 675 00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:22,680 Speaker 2: about kitchen sink week. That's these oh and two teams 676 00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:25,600 Speaker 2: where if we know historically if you're zero and two, 677 00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:28,800 Speaker 2: that is a very good idea to bet on the 678 00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:31,600 Speaker 2: own teams in Week three. It's the season on the line. 679 00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:33,640 Speaker 2: You've got to go on and get the win. In 680 00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:37,120 Speaker 2: the last decade, own two teams in Week three are 681 00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:39,880 Speaker 2: forty three, twenty six and a one against the spread, 682 00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:43,040 Speaker 2: sixty two percent hit rate on that. So yes, that 683 00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:46,120 Speaker 2: means that I'm betting on the Jets this week. I'm 684 00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:48,360 Speaker 2: betting on the Jaggers, and I'm betting on the Lions. 685 00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:51,120 Speaker 2: The one I like the most is the Indianapolis Colts. 686 00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:53,840 Speaker 2: They're plus five and a half. Yes, I know Carson 687 00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:56,680 Speaker 2: Wentz might not even play, but not only do we 688 00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,440 Speaker 2: have that kitchen sink week in our favor. 689 00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:00,680 Speaker 1: If you look just. 690 00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:04,040 Speaker 2: Division, where we know games tend to be closer. Now 691 00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:06,280 Speaker 2: oh and two teams are the last act are fourteen 692 00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:09,000 Speaker 2: to five and a one against the spread. So that 693 00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:12,120 Speaker 2: is almost three out of four times that they are covering. 694 00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:15,759 Speaker 2: And the Colts have dominated the Titans. They've won eight 695 00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:18,680 Speaker 2: out of the last nine games in a Tennessee in 696 00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:21,000 Speaker 2: that division or Avalry while the Titans have been very good. 697 00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:24,279 Speaker 2: So this is a good team that's a talented Roger. 698 00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:28,120 Speaker 2: I don't think they're going to roll over. So beware 699 00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:30,480 Speaker 2: those kitchen sink teams. I know that you look at 700 00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:32,080 Speaker 2: a team that's owing too and just think they're dead 701 00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:35,600 Speaker 2: in the water. But I'm eyeballing them. You've got a 702 00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:38,200 Speaker 2: couple teams and a teaser I think too that sort 703 00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:39,760 Speaker 2: of fit into this kitchen sink theory. 704 00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:43,640 Speaker 1: I did give out the Arizona Cardinals on the hot read, 705 00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:47,440 Speaker 1: but I'm a little bit I'm not as high on 706 00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:50,359 Speaker 1: it now. I think the look aheadline on this game 707 00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:53,680 Speaker 1: before the start of season with like Arizona minus three 708 00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:55,759 Speaker 1: or something like that. Now all we have to seve it. 709 00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:58,120 Speaker 1: I think the scary thing about that game is that 710 00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:01,319 Speaker 1: Jazz Deepens has just been on the field for so 711 00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:06,480 Speaker 1: long and it's just it's really, really tough. I'm beginning 712 00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:09,600 Speaker 1: to wonder if we're seeing us Anario this season where 713 00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:14,120 Speaker 1: the chasm between the have nots and the haves is 714 00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:16,960 Speaker 1: just growing. And I mean, obviously it's too early in 715 00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:19,719 Speaker 1: the season to be able to know that, But I 716 00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:22,920 Speaker 1: mean some of these rookie quarterbacks have just been so dreadful. 717 00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:26,120 Speaker 1: I do think the Lions are a feising team and 718 00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,680 Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to go out there and cover 719 00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:31,960 Speaker 1: some of these big spreads. Because as much as we 720 00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:35,719 Speaker 1: talk about Jared Golf, he's a guy who he could. 721 00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:38,680 Speaker 1: I mean, he has experienced, he's been in the playoffs, 722 00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:41,960 Speaker 1: he's been in big moments, and even though he had 723 00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:45,480 Speaker 1: the training wheels with Sean mc McVeigh, we saw him 724 00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:48,360 Speaker 1: going there in that first half and he carved that 725 00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:52,680 Speaker 1: Packers defense up, and I think if they don't fell 726 00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:54,600 Speaker 1: in that fourth down conversion, I think they actually cover 727 00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:59,120 Speaker 1: that game. But I think that one play completely turned 728 00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:01,759 Speaker 1: around the momentum game. That you're taking the Lions there 729 00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:04,480 Speaker 1: against his Baltimore Ravens team coming off a big win 730 00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:08,520 Speaker 1: on prime time, I'm gonna go with the Miami Dolphins 731 00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:12,640 Speaker 1: plus four and a half. Like we said before, neither 732 00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:15,840 Speaker 1: one of us Kobe Brizette is a down grade from tour. 733 00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:19,279 Speaker 1: So if he's not a downgrade from two of this 734 00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:22,239 Speaker 1: line is way too high. Derek Carr, he comes into 735 00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:24,880 Speaker 1: this game off an ankle injury. He's still facing the 736 00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:28,000 Speaker 1: Dolphins defense, which is eleventh in efficiency, leads the league, 737 00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:31,240 Speaker 1: and quarterback hits. This offensive line the Raiders is banged 738 00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:35,000 Speaker 1: up to thirty second and adjusted lineyards. Josh Shacobs might 739 00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:37,319 Speaker 1: not play. Miami's gonna be able to go out there 740 00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:41,239 Speaker 1: defensively and cause some problems. And I'm not really upgrading 741 00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:45,879 Speaker 1: the Raiders power raking after beating the Pittsburgh Steelers two 742 00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:48,920 Speaker 1: thousand and three, teams will lose by thirty five points 743 00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:52,520 Speaker 1: or more. Are twenty four, fifteen and four. That sixty 744 00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:56,640 Speaker 1: one point five percent against the spread. Take the Miami 745 00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:59,360 Speaker 1: Dolphins plus four and a half is way too high. 746 00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:02,320 Speaker 1: The second, I'm gonna go with a two team teaser 747 00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:07,880 Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals minus one and a half Minnesota Vikings plus 748 00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:09,880 Speaker 1: eight and a half. I think the Vikings keep it 749 00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:12,160 Speaker 1: close for this season. We all know they have one 750 00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:15,600 Speaker 1: of the best home for the advantages in football. Arizona cardinalis. 751 00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:19,600 Speaker 1: You have to win this game against a coach in Obermeyer, 752 00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:21,759 Speaker 1: who I think is just in over his head. He 753 00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:24,640 Speaker 1: probably needs to go back to college. So I'm gonna 754 00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:26,839 Speaker 1: tease Arizona Cardinals down Yeah, I like that. 755 00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:29,200 Speaker 2: That's kind of a kitchen sink teas to me, because 756 00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:32,640 Speaker 2: you know you're betting really that Jacksonville manages to keep 757 00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:34,840 Speaker 2: it close enough that you don't want to take the spread, 758 00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:37,759 Speaker 2: but banking on the Cardinals to get the win. That 759 00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:40,880 Speaker 2: makes sense with Jacksonville kind of in that kitchen sink spot. 760 00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:44,120 Speaker 2: And then yeah, Minnesota Russell Wilson has seven and er 761 00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:48,000 Speaker 2: lifetime against my poor Vikings. A couple of heartbreaking losses 762 00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:50,520 Speaker 2: in there, but it's the first home game for Minnesota 763 00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:54,280 Speaker 2: on the season, and Seattle loves those one score games, 764 00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:56,640 Speaker 2: So even if the Vikings lose a close one, you 765 00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:58,520 Speaker 2: still get the cover on that eight and a half. 766 00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:01,960 Speaker 2: It's another kitchen sing spot for them at home, and 767 00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:05,359 Speaker 2: they're talented teams, so just trusting Minnesota to stay within 768 00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:07,680 Speaker 2: eight points makes a lot of sense. So that's kind 769 00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:09,719 Speaker 2: of a kitchen sink teaser. I like that one as well. 770 00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:11,839 Speaker 2: All right, that is going to wrap it up today 771 00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:14,279 Speaker 2: at the Action Network podcat, download the Action Network app, 772 00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:17,920 Speaker 2: Please rate, subscribe, and review the podcast. Make sure to 773 00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:20,720 Speaker 2: check out Stuck in Ray Bounds full preview and NFL 774 00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:23,720 Speaker 2: betting guide and six pack If you haven't yet. Raheem 775 00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:26,319 Speaker 2: and I will be back first thing Monday to run 776 00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:29,760 Speaker 2: through all the action from week three for Raheem Palmer 777 00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:32,759 Speaker 2: and Anderson and this has been the Action Network podcast. 778 00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:33,880 Speaker 2: Enjoy your weekend