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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go from the test throwing out

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Speaker 3: spect I'm sitting.

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Speaker 2: It's a cash toto, that's.

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Speaker 3: All we see. Most gambles when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 3: they go to winning. That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate combine.

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Speaker 2: If you want to fall.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast

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Speaker 3: presented by bet MGM. I'm Jill Glance. I'm joined by

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Speaker 3: Evan Abrams, and we're gonna dive into all of the

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Speaker 3: NFL Wildcard weekend games, talking about what happened, look at

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Speaker 3: the upcoming divisional matchups. Brandon Anderson, he's going to join

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Speaker 3: us shortly for the Hot Breed looking at divisional round matchups,

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Speaker 3: and then Patrick Everson from Begas Insider will give us

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Speaker 3: a market report on how Sportsbook's in Vegas fared for

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Speaker 3: wild Card weekend. But first, Evan, let's start with the

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Speaker 3: most recent game. Let's go immediately to Eagles Bucks. Bucks

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Speaker 3: win big at home as three point home underdogs, but

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Speaker 3: the total of forty three and a half just stays under.

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Speaker 3: They win twenty five to nine. Now, Evan, I mean,

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Speaker 3: first first thing I see off of this game, right

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Speaker 3: off the hop and we were talking about it here

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Speaker 3: in the Action office here in New York City. This

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Speaker 3: might be the best game quarter Baker Mayfield has ever played.

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Speaker 3: I mean, three hundred and thirty seven passing yards, three touchdowns,

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Speaker 3: no interceptions, rush for a few first downs, but a

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Speaker 3: lot of what we were seeing from this Eagles defense

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Speaker 3: over the final six weeks of the season, it really

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Speaker 3: started to show its head here in this game. They

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Speaker 3: really showed that they kind of missed aj Brown as well.

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Speaker 3: In this matchup. The tackling by that defense was just atrocious.

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Speaker 3: I mean they bench quarterback James Bradberry for a few

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Speaker 3: series at one point for their rookie just because I

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Speaker 3: mean they signed him in the offseason. So it was

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Speaker 3: pretty bad. But I mean you could even argue, Evan

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Speaker 3: that the Bucks could have won by even more because

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Speaker 3: of those first half drops you were seeing. To Mike

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Speaker 3: Evans cade Aughten, I mean, his yardage was out of control.

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Speaker 3: I mean he had two drops in the first half.

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Speaker 3: But my last point, Evan, really, I think from this

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Speaker 3: game what we saw was that the Eagles just could

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Speaker 3: not stop the blitz and the Bucks blitzed on pretty

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Speaker 3: much about seventy percent of Jalen Hurts dropbacks, and he

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Speaker 3: just could not react quick enough. So I think at

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Speaker 3: this point, I don't really know how much more we

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Speaker 3: could say about the Eagles other than the warning signs

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Speaker 3: were there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, lots of unpack but I think starting with Philly

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Speaker 2: at least to close the book, Yes, you were the

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Speaker 2: defense points allowed in their last few games, so what

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Speaker 2: they What did they end up allowing tonight? They ended

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Speaker 2: up allowing thirty two, so thirty two, twenty seven, thirty five,

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Speaker 2: twenty five, twenty thirty three, forty two, thirty four. The

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Speaker 2: issue was the defense most of season, at least at

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Speaker 2: the end. They end on a seven game ATS losing streak,

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Speaker 2: which pretty unfathomable for a team to make the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: They haven't covered a spread since November. So to see

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Speaker 2: this team, to see this team try to win the

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Speaker 2: game tonight and assuming that was a possibility, felt like

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Speaker 2: you were seeing something you haven't seen since they were

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Speaker 2: ten and one. It just didn't make sense, especially when

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Speaker 2: you look to history. Right, no team has finished the

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Speaker 2: season one to five and won a playoff game since

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Speaker 2: two thousand been a long time. And even teams right

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Speaker 2: like Eagles started ten and one, lose what do they

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Speaker 2: lose four of their next five. It's just not the

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Speaker 2: same squad. Here's really a crazy trend that ended up

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Speaker 2: coming to fruition this weekend. So playoff teams playing on

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Speaker 2: the road coming off a straight up loss in their

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Speaker 2: last game, now nine and twenty five in the last

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Speaker 2: twenty years this weekend. That was Miami, Cleveland and Philly,

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Speaker 2: So pretty crazy. I figure that was.

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Speaker 3: Kind of worth sharing maybe for the Yeah, and I

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Speaker 3: mean the final five games for the Bucks too. Just

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Speaker 3: to transition over to Tampa Bay, who put up thirty

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Speaker 3: two points today. Again Baker Mayfield and we talk about

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Speaker 3: Jordan Love here in a bit, really closing the season

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Speaker 3: strong like over the final five games. And again you

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Speaker 3: can't say this about Baker Mayfield very often from a

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Speaker 3: touchdown interception ratio ten touchdowns and two interceptions, and they

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Speaker 3: were five and one pretty much to close the season.

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Speaker 3: Three touchdowns again today. Man Darius Slay and James Brandberry

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Speaker 3: were such an edge for the Eagles last year on

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Speaker 3: defense and they looked old like the whole defense for

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Speaker 3: the Eagles just kind of looked old today, and I

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Speaker 3: think from a Buccaneers standpoint, I'm not gonna say that

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Speaker 3: they're gonna be able because now they have to play

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Speaker 3: the Detroit Lions, and they're gonna go on the road

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Speaker 3: to the Detroit Lions as about six point underdogs. They

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Speaker 3: that was the look aheadline that books were putting out

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Speaker 3: there before. It's probably gonna stay around there. It might

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Speaker 3: even get up to seven, depending on if there's any

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Speaker 3: injuries that we're not hearing about right now. I mean,

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Speaker 3: but I will say this, Baker Mayfield who came into

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Speaker 3: the game, they were talking about how he's gonna have

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Speaker 3: to protect his ribs a little bit more, how he

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Speaker 3: was dealing with an ankle injury. I mean toward all

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Speaker 3: as a hell of a drug, because he did not

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Speaker 3: look like he was affected at all. And now playing

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Speaker 3: the Lions. They played each other in Week six, actually

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Speaker 3: they hosted the Lions. Now, the Lions won that game

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Speaker 3: twenty to six, and for a reference standpoint, as they

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Speaker 3: were home underdogs in that game three and a half

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Speaker 3: point home underdogs with a total of forty three and

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Speaker 3: a half, I gotta imagine this line will come down.

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Speaker 3: But right now, with the way that the Lions' offenses

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Speaker 3: looked and how I don't want to say they handled

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Speaker 3: the Rams, but you got to think that this Lion

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Speaker 3: will may go up closer to seven, you know, even

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Speaker 3: despite the fact that the Bucks how good they looked

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Speaker 3: against this Eagles defense.

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Speaker 2: I mean, initial money in the market and again very

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Speaker 2: very early at this point, but it does seem like

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Speaker 2: everyone's betting Detroit. All the tickets, all the money open

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Speaker 2: at five and a half. Now it's at six. I

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Speaker 2: kind of agree. I think at least you're gonna see

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Speaker 2: six and a half's probably by the morning when you're

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Speaker 2: listening to this podcast, would be our guests, and also

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Speaker 2: kind of assume the total is gonna go up. You're indoors.

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Speaker 2: You just saw Tampa put up a bunch of points.

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Speaker 2: I also hope Kate Totten over receptions and receiving yards

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Speaker 2: might be on the radar, even though I even think

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Speaker 2: tight ends on both sides probably have a decent day.

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Speaker 2: But I do see kind of a fast track with

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Speaker 2: this one. The fun angle coming off the weekend of games, though,

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Speaker 2: is the concept that the Browns did lose Baker advances

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Speaker 2: Raven's the one seed just just a crappy situation. Obviously

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Speaker 2: for the Browns. He had probably one of the best

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Speaker 2: seasons for them in a long time. And see, you know,

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Speaker 2: Baker have this performance and them kind of flame out

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Speaker 2: with Flacco. But great performance from Baker and kind of

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Speaker 2: like Jordan Love, which we're talking about in a second,

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Speaker 2: he's covered four in a row as a dog. Baker,

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Speaker 2: He's seven to one of his last eight as a dog.

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Speaker 2: So getting six, maybe six and a half, maybe seven,

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Speaker 2: it's kind of interesting.

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Speaker 3: Well, and what's really interesting too about that matchup is

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Speaker 3: how much the Lions rely on the run and how

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Speaker 3: the Eagles today just could not run the ball at all.

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Speaker 3: Vita Bea was just clogging up lanes and even when

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Speaker 3: they were trying to run, they were either getting attacked

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Speaker 3: in the backfield the way that the Eagles were today,

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Speaker 3: and that Lion's pass rush if Wurf's, and that Bucks

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Speaker 3: defensive line or offensive line is not protecting Baker get

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Speaker 3: hit early. I mean, we were seeing Stafford get hit

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Speaker 3: really hard late in the game because that offensive line

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Speaker 3: was just wearing down as the game went on. From

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Speaker 3: an attrition standpoint. We're gonna talk about Rams Lions here

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Speaker 3: in a second. But again, I took this one right

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Speaker 3: on the chin. Cowboys fans took this right down the throat.

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Speaker 3: Packers fans rejoiced heavily. Because the Packers, I have no

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Speaker 3: other way of saying it, kick the shit out of

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Speaker 3: the Cowboys forty eight to thirty two. In Jerry World

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Speaker 3: total goes over a fifty one and a half Cowboys

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Speaker 3: seven and a half point home favorites obviously do not cover.

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Speaker 3: But one of the things I thought this was crazy

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Speaker 3: is that that's the first home loss for Dallas since

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Speaker 3: Week one against the Buccaneers last year, where they lost

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Speaker 3: nineteen to three. Dak broke his hand in that game.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, this there's no really other way to describe it.

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Speaker 3: And this was just a total shit kicking disaster. And

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Speaker 3: I was in the middle of a bar where everybody

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Speaker 3: was chanting, fuck the Cowboys had I had to get

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Speaker 3: out of there at halftime, and right after that Darnell

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Speaker 3: Savage pick six, I knew that game was over.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, for everyone who saw us out there. I was

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Speaker 2: with Jill as well, and he did have to leave

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Speaker 2: a halftime. It was as a Cowboys fan, it's impossible, right,

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Speaker 2: Like you have the best season ever your one sixteen

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Speaker 2: consecutive home games and it was twenty one nothing before,

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Speaker 2: you know, maybe maybe your first, you know, Seltzer. So

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Speaker 2: just a terrible situation. I think from Dallas's point of view,

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure how you don't blow it up. At

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Speaker 2: this point, McCarthy is still the head coach of the

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Speaker 2: Dallas Cowboys free one and done, though Dak Prescott is

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Speaker 2: still the quarterback in Dallas, I'm not really sure. Other

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Speaker 2: than that, what else you say about the team three

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Speaker 2: thirteen and one against the spread in the playoffs since

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Speaker 2: ninety seven, It just it feels almost impossible. They've also

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Speaker 2: lost five games against the spread at home in the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: They haven't covered at home since twenty ten. And even

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Speaker 2: think about it like this, right, Dak forty nine thirty

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Speaker 2: three and two against the spread as a favorite in

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Speaker 2: the regular season, one to four in the playoffs, it

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Speaker 2: just kind of just doesn't make sense. We've seen all

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Speaker 2: the stats, we've seen everything out there, So I think

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Speaker 2: we can forget Dallas for a second. But from Green

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Speaker 2: based from Green bayse point of view, playing in San Francisco,

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Speaker 2: getting ten points, it would just be the absolute ultimate

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Speaker 2: for a first year starting quarterback of the Green Bay

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Speaker 2: Packers to beat the Cowboys and the forty nine Ers

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Speaker 2: in back to back weeks in the playoffs, when obviously

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Speaker 2: Farvin Rodgers couldn't do that for years. It would just

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Speaker 2: be absolutely perfect chef's kiss. But that is what he

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Speaker 2: is up against. What do you think about the matchup?

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Speaker 3: Well, for me, Evan, just before we talk about the

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Speaker 3: Niners and Packers game, because I will say, what's so

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Speaker 3: poetic is watching Jordan Love. And we talked about this

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Speaker 3: last week on the Pot about how Aaron Rodgers watching

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Speaker 3: from the sideline one year removed and now they're in

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Speaker 3: the playoffs. And again we've talked about the history of

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Speaker 3: the Packers versus the Cowboys and how they have just

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Speaker 3: kind of brutalized this team. But I thought what was

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Speaker 3: wild about that matchup was how much the Packers exposed

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Speaker 3: Dan Quinn and that Cowboys defense, who was up for

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Speaker 3: a lot of jobs. And I imagine he'll still get

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Speaker 3: some interviews. I think Seattle might want to be looking

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Speaker 3: at it. But again, forty one points of offense at home,

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Speaker 3: four hundred and fifty combined rush and receiving yards, you

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Speaker 3: just don't see that very often from that Cowboys defense,

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Speaker 3: especially at home. I mean, Aaron Jones had a three

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Speaker 3: touchdown game. That's his first three touchdown game when he

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Speaker 3: had three touchdown receptions against the Lions like two years ago.

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Speaker 2: Like you don't.

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Speaker 3: He's just been in and out of the lineup and

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Speaker 3: really hitting his peak at the right time. And again

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Speaker 3: Dak Picks just completely swung the game early. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: now from a matchup standpoint for Packers forty nine ers,

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Speaker 3: I'm already starting to see the line come down for

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Speaker 3: Niners nine and a half now, I mean it might

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Speaker 3: go back to ten. I mean, there's gonna be a

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Speaker 3: lot of jostling in the market on that line, I

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Speaker 3: imagine as we get closer to kickoff. But what's really

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Speaker 3: interesting to me though, too Evan, is totals at fifty

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Speaker 3: and a half. So they can't imagine that they think

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Speaker 3: that the Niners are going to put up fifty Like

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Speaker 3: they're probably thinking that right now, especially with the spread

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Speaker 3: that books and betters and pros are starting to believe

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Speaker 3: in this Packers offense. And now Jordan Love coming into

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Speaker 3: this game over his last nine games, twenty one passing touchdowns,

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Speaker 3: only one interception.

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Speaker 2: Wow, that's incredible. I was actually gonna jump on that.

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Speaker 2: So since week eleven he's second EPA per play third

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Speaker 2: and success right third, and completion percentage. Week weeks one

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Speaker 2: through ten he was sixteenth, twenty fifth, and thirty eighth.

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Speaker 2: He's just an absolutely different quarterback. And to do that

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Speaker 2: in his rookie year and make that type of like

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Speaker 2: transition incredible, just absolutely insane. I will say this when

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Speaker 2: you look at just an angle for looking at a

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Speaker 2: team who won is an underdog and tries to do

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Speaker 2: it again, actually not awful in terms of against the spread.

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Speaker 2: So team wins by six point dog last week, six

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Speaker 2: point dog again in the playoffs, just eight and eight

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Speaker 2: in the last twenty years. The issue in winning the

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Speaker 2: issue is winning three and thirteen. So an upset would

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Speaker 2: be something you know, we haven't seen since the Ravens

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Speaker 2: in twenty thirteen. To do that again, but to cover

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Speaker 2: the number, especially if that gets you know, it's at

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Speaker 2: ten right now, So I think it's definitely possible, especially

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Speaker 2: if you can run that offense like he did this week.

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Speaker 2: But I agree Quinn was an absolute disaster. You even

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Speaker 2: saw it. They were passing all over them early and often,

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Speaker 2: and then the Dak interceptions kind of made the game impossible.

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Speaker 2: I just don't think it's gonna be that easy against

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Speaker 2: San Francisco. It just can't be. But I do think

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Speaker 2: there's gonna be success there, which is why I listen.

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Speaker 2: Total opened at forty seven and a half quickly to

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Speaker 2: forty eight and a half, now sitting at fifty and

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Speaker 2: a half and seventy eight percent of tickets early on

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Speaker 2: the over. Everyone's gonna want the over in this game.

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Speaker 2: It's the reason it's already ticked up.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And I think they're taking that over because they're

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Speaker 3: trusting in that Niners offense that always seems to come

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Speaker 3: out fast. I mean, they led the league in first

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Speaker 3: half scoring, so I can imagine that that's where a

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Speaker 3: lot of the thinking is going for that. Before we

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Speaker 3: move out of the next game, though, Evan, just think

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Speaker 3: about this theory. I think Green Bay has got it

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Speaker 3: figured out on how to cultivate a franchise quarterback because now,

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Speaker 3: if you think back they drafted Aaron Rodgers in the

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Speaker 3: first round, they let him sit there on the bench

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Speaker 3: for three years, just disgruntled the entire time. And if

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Speaker 3: you recall back to that rookie year. I remember the

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Speaker 3: first half of the year he was kind of struggling,

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Speaker 3: not really sure if it was like the air apparent

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Speaker 3: with Brett Favorwoo after he went to the Jets. But

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Speaker 3: now here we're seeing Aaron Rodgers. They draft Jordan Love,

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Speaker 3: sit him on the bench for three years, let him

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Speaker 3: learn from a legend, and now he comes in and

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Speaker 3: he most of his mannerisms, throwing off the back foot

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Speaker 3: like a lot of that was straight up Aaron Rodgers poaching,

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Speaker 3: like of the way that he plays the game. So again,

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Speaker 3: kudos to the Packers. As a Cowboys fan, I completely

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Speaker 3: did not expect that to happen. I mean, sure, maybe

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Speaker 3: the Packers would win, definitely not twenty seven to seven

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Speaker 3: at halftime, where I'm like, basically, all right, this game

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Speaker 3: is a write off. But now let's move to the

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Speaker 3: Rams Lions, which arguably was a even better storyline as

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Speaker 3: far as the way that the outcome went and just

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Speaker 3: the way that the game was played. But Rams Lions,

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Speaker 3: Lions win a thriller twenty four to twenty three at home,

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Speaker 3: first home wins since or first playoff wins since nineteen

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Speaker 3: ninety two. Now, the total was the highest of the

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Speaker 3: week fifty three and a half, that total does go

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Speaker 3: under and the Lions do not cover as three point favorites.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, this was like a wild back and forth

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Speaker 3: game at the start because it looked like the Lions

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Speaker 3: were just gonna run away with it. And then you

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Speaker 3: see Matt Staff would be able to connect with Puka

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Speaker 3: Nakua get two two at well for a touchdown as well.

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Speaker 3: But man, this game really felt like it could have

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Speaker 3: went either way until the fourth quarter. So I was

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Speaker 3: watching the game with Simon Hunter in the second half,

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Speaker 3: and the Rams are driving down the field and they're

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Speaker 3: in field goal range. There's a holding call and then

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Speaker 3: they missed it on board that like it could have

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Speaker 3: been a DPI but it was close, you know. But

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Speaker 3: the point was is that I felt like McVeigh, who

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Speaker 3: we know as being this offensive genie, is very conservative

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Speaker 3: in the second half, especially with some of those field

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Speaker 3: goals where I mean they kicked the field goal a

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Speaker 3: twenty seven yard field goal with Brett Maher and then

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Speaker 3: a twenty nine yard field goal as well. At some

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Speaker 3: of those timeout choices I think may have cost them

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Speaker 3: in the long run here And I asked Simon this,

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Speaker 3: and I mean he kind of agreed with me. I mean,

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Speaker 3: we could talk about this from a future standpoint of

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Speaker 3: the Rams, but if you're the Rams, I'm not discouraged

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Speaker 3: by that result. I almost kind of wonder if we

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Speaker 3: should run it back. Like I mean, Kyron Williams is fantastic.

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Speaker 3: Poka Nakua, I mean had the most receiving yards for

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Speaker 3: a rookie ever in a playoff game. I feel like

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Speaker 3: they're closer in the NFC than people realize. So before

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Speaker 3: we talk about the Lions, what do you think about

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Speaker 3: the Rams on that side of it.

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Speaker 2: Definitely don't need to do too much. I think you

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Speaker 2: probably need to make defense a tad better. And the

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Speaker 2: thing that's crazy to me when you look at this

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Speaker 2: game in general is you take a look at the

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Speaker 2: box score, very very even. To me. The only thing

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Speaker 2: that stands out, which you kind of mentioned it yourself,

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Speaker 2: a little bit of clock management from mcveigh's point of view,

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Speaker 2: but also the red zone. One team zero and three

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Speaker 2: the other team three for three. That's a difference, like

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Speaker 2: they just struggled in that area. They settled in certain ways. Uh,

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Speaker 2: And it was the difference to one point game. But

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Speaker 2: I think the Rams played better like that. That's why

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Speaker 2: when I look next week and I say about Tampa,

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Speaker 2: if that line sneaks up, and I have some confidence

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Speaker 2: in the health on Tampa's side. You know, Baker look

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Speaker 2: hobbled a little bit in certain ways, but I think

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Speaker 2: he's finally looked, you know, great today.

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Speaker 3: Obviously he might not feel good when the tour it off.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, exactly. Let's see how the week goes. But

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Speaker 2: I think the Rams played a better game, but it

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Speaker 2: is what it is. I think that last drive where

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Speaker 2: they settle to make it one, they easily easily could

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Speaker 2: have gotten seven and multiple different passes a few times,

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Speaker 2: so didn't happen. That's kind of the situation. Uh. But

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Speaker 2: from Stafford's point of view, what what an incredible season,

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Speaker 2: ten to five and one against the spread, his first

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Speaker 2: time over five hundred ats since twenty eighteen. So he's

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Speaker 2: just not a guy who usually covers numbers. Did it

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Speaker 2: all year, so you really have to give it up there.

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Speaker 2: So I'm very positive for the Rams moving forward, especially

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Speaker 2: when you think about how negative most people were about

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Speaker 2: them during the season. Win total was super low, and

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Speaker 2: you had very few people who believed in the team.

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Speaker 2: So I think and during next season, very different outcome.

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Speaker 2: Uh And then from Detroit's point of view, great game,

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Speaker 2: they played well, they got the win, they made some

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Speaker 2: good plays. I don't think they played fantastic, which leads

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Speaker 2: me to believe, like, could they play better against Tampa

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Speaker 2: next week? Possibly? I think the one thing to look

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Speaker 2: out for from Tampa's point of view is check this

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Speaker 2: out Lions defense. Last four games. Stafford went for three

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Speaker 2: sixty seven, two touchdowns, no picks. Pooka nine for one

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Speaker 2: eighty one. Before that, Mullins three ninety six two touchdowns,

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Speaker 2: JJ went for twelve and one two. Dak went for

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Speaker 2: three forty five, Mullins went for four to eleven. Again,

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Speaker 2: they've been absolutely torched lately. So winning, yes, but the

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Speaker 2: defense not so good. So Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, some overs,

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Speaker 2: maybe some touchdowns, maybe a team total. On Tampa's side,

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Speaker 2: I just don't know how it's going to be much

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Speaker 2: different unless they get a lot of pressure and really

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Speaker 2: make it tough on Baker. But I still think Tampa

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Speaker 2: stays in the game well.

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Speaker 3: And Baker has shown he will push it down the field.

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Speaker 3: I think that was the big thing that we were

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Speaker 3: always wondering like when he wasn't doing it in Carolina

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Speaker 3: last year. He wasn't really doing it with the Rams

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Speaker 3: that much last year and now being established in this lineup.

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Speaker 3: And one of the things about the Lions defense, and

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Speaker 3: this is part of the reason why I was on

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Speaker 3: Pooka Nakua for a touchdown in that game, is the

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Speaker 3: Lions defense has given up the third most touchdowns to

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Speaker 3: wide receivers this year and their twenty ninth to Dvo

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Speaker 3: waiversus the deep pass that completely lines up for Mike

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Speaker 3: Evans like to basically go over the top for many

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Speaker 3: I don't know how many yards he'll have, but I

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Speaker 3: mean today he could have had like one hundred and

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Speaker 3: fifty receiving yards if it just wasn't for a couple

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Speaker 3: of drops there. I mean Kate Aughten had he could

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Speaker 3: have went over one hundred as well. So the Lions

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Speaker 3: aren't exactly like sharp against tight ends either. So I

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Speaker 3: think Aughton, like you had mentioned earlier, could also be

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Speaker 3: in for a big game. But again, when you have

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Speaker 3: guys like Trey Palmer coming in and scoring touchdowns like

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Speaker 3: off a fifty yard catch and run, and Mike Evans

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Speaker 3: pretty much quiet even Chris Godwin got in for a

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Speaker 3: garbage touchdown there at the end. You'd be shocked to

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Speaker 3: actually how many weapons Tampa has. And that'll be a

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Speaker 3: very interesting matchup against the Lions, where I don't think

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Speaker 3: you're going to see a twenty to six game again.

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Speaker 3: You're going to see more scoring from the Tampa Bay side.

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Speaker 2: Before we move on, though, I do have to pour

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Speaker 2: one out for the over in the Lions game. It

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Speaker 2: felt like maybe one of the toughest beats of the weekend.

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Speaker 2: I haven't done like a full recap on everything yet,

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Speaker 2: but man, when you go into the half twenty one

414
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Speaker 2: seventeen and you've got both offenses absolutely humming and the

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Speaker 2: final score becomes twenty four to twenty three, that is

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Speaker 2: a tough one. If you look at the action app

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Speaker 2: the chart there, just it was pretty legendary. And also,

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Speaker 2: I'll say one more Matt Mitchell. I believe had the

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Speaker 2: Lions team total over Matt Mitchell, our audio producer. Lions

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Speaker 2: team total over Rams money line. Losing both at twenty

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Speaker 2: one seventeen and a half feels almost impossible, so thank.

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Speaker 3: Oh poor man. Well at least the Bills won, so

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Speaker 3: that way he won't be too upset with the way

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Speaker 3: that this weekend turned out. This podcast is probably presented

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434
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438
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442
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443
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444
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449
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452
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:14,880
Speaker 3: one meal kit. All right, now start for the hot

453
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 3: read from our own Brandon Anderson, Brandon, what do you

454
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:20,560
Speaker 3: have us looking for at early? Divisional round lines, hot.

455
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 2: Rap, body on, ice rights, ice cream, A D nineteen,

456
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:30,080
Speaker 2: Sound nineteen A soul train.

457
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:35,440
Speaker 4: All right, let's do a little division around Hot Read.

458
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 4: How Rey is now twenty one nine and one after that,

459
00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 4: Rams cover for us seventy percent on the season, and

460
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 4: we are definitely coming in hot this week. Let's go

461
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:51,919
Speaker 4: with the Packers green Bay plus ten at San Francisco.

462
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 4: Now look and now was terrifying. The thing you want

463
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 4: to do with this round instinctively is bet on these

464
00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 4: arrested one seeds. Right, this could go very badly, very

465
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,399
Speaker 4: quickly for us. The Packers defense is not good, no

466
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 4: matter what Dallas thinks. Joe Barry is not good San

467
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 4: Franas all the weapons, it's entirely possible. Niners just drop

468
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 4: forty and we feel like idiots on this one. But

469
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:14,200
Speaker 4: what we saw in that Dallas can that was not

470
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,680
Speaker 4: a fluke, and that was not just Dallas PI in Dallas.

471
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 4: This is green Bay being green Bay too. Since Week nine,

472
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 4: the Packers are number two in the NFL offensively by Dvoway,

473
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 4: ahead of the Ravens, behind only these Niners. These are

474
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 4: the two best offenses over the last half of the season.

475
00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,639
Speaker 4: Green Bay's top five running, top five passing, and yesa

476
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:39,520
Speaker 4: why Jordan Love has made the leap. Since that week

477
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:42,440
Speaker 4: nine period, he went from second to last in the

478
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:46,440
Speaker 4: NFL and completion percentage over Expectation to second in the

479
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 4: NFL in that metric, He's top three in PFF grade

480
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 4: during that span. He's top three in EPA in that window.

481
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:57,440
Speaker 4: He's basically put up MVP type numbers this back half

482
00:24:57,480 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 4: of the season, and I think he can actually produce

483
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 4: against the Niners. That secondary is beatable. Green Bay is

484
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 4: number two in past block win rate. I think they

485
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:08,200
Speaker 4: can hold up. And don't forget Aaron Jones is running

486
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 4: really well four straight games now. He's at at least

487
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:14,080
Speaker 4: twenty carries over one hundred yards. Sam Franz Runty is

488
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:17,239
Speaker 4: beatable too, so I do think the Packers offense can

489
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:20,879
Speaker 4: hang here. And don't forget too, the Niners have been

490
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:23,959
Speaker 4: a little slower defensively in the first half. They've been

491
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:27,200
Speaker 4: definitely worse at home, below average by DVOA versus number

492
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 4: two on the road, green Bay two. They don't make

493
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 4: a lot of mistakes. They're a young team, but if

494
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,480
Speaker 4: you look at saxon turnovers, green Bay average this season

495
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 4: two point eight saxon turnovers per game, lowest in the

496
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,879
Speaker 4: entire NFL. So they're not going to give this game away.

497
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:44,920
Speaker 4: And Matt Lafleur, I think, and to get some advantages too.

498
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:47,880
Speaker 4: We saw what happened to Sean McVay this weekend. Kyle

499
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 4: Shanahan similarly doesn't always optimize things. Matt Lafleur is better

500
00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:56,159
Speaker 4: at being aggressive, finding those little tiny advantages. Niners might

501
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:58,480
Speaker 4: be a bit rusty here too. They haven't really played

502
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 4: a real game. It's Christmas. Remember the Baltimore game we

503
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 4: all watched. Sam Fran played Washington the next week. That's

504
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 4: a preseason game. They sat Week eighteen, they rested, so

505
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 4: I don't know what happens if they come out a

506
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:12,359
Speaker 4: little rusty here, a little slow. They haven't really been

507
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,920
Speaker 4: tested a whole lot either. Right now. Looks like rain

508
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 4: and wind that might introduce some randomness that usually helps

509
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:23,439
Speaker 4: an underdog. And then the trends for this round. Matt Lafleur,

510
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:25,920
Speaker 4: you always want it back. Came as an underdog twenty

511
00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 4: one and ten ats sixty eight percent. But in the

512
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:30,560
Speaker 4: division round, this is the key trend.

513
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 2: You need to know.

514
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:35,680
Speaker 4: Home favorites the last two decades this round only forty

515
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 4: two percent against the spread. Just the one seeds who

516
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 4: remember are rested. They didn't play last week. One seeds

517
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:48,160
Speaker 4: in the divisional round are thirty five percent ats this round,

518
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:51,959
Speaker 4: including when they're favored by ten or last ten twenty

519
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:55,399
Speaker 4: five in a one against the spread twenty nine percent

520
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:58,120
Speaker 4: cover rate. If you look just these last two decades,

521
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:03,920
Speaker 4: both one seeds covered only two times in two decades. Meanwhile,

522
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:07,640
Speaker 4: they both failed to cover eight times in that span.

523
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 4: So if you look kind of at how the numbers

524
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 4: play out, those one seas are failing to cover by

525
00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 4: over two points a game. So you're basically paying a

526
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 4: two point tax if you want to bet on the

527
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 4: forty nine ers here, or on the Ravens as well

528
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 4: in their games. So the values on the Packers Divisional

529
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:26,640
Speaker 4: round home teams on a one game losing streak. Don't

530
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 4: forget the Niners lost Week eighteen. Again, that's implying some

531
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:33,920
Speaker 4: rust here. Those teams are three and fifteen ats the

532
00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 4: following game seventeen percent cover rate, and road division around

533
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:42,199
Speaker 4: teams that missed the playoffs last year, those teams are

534
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 4: twenty seven to thirteen ats sixty eight percent. Teams like

535
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 4: the Packers that are maybe on the up and coming

536
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:50,040
Speaker 4: and just want a playoff game to get to this round,

537
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:52,680
Speaker 4: but now are on the road. So I love Green

538
00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 4: Bay here. I didn't bet Green Bay last week, but

539
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:58,160
Speaker 4: I had this matchup mark. If they did survived, give

540
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:01,879
Speaker 4: me Packers plus ten all. I want that key number,

541
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:06,160
Speaker 4: but we're not done yet. Instead of a second hot

542
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 4: read tonight tub a little escalator on the Packers Divisional

543
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 4: round underdogs of seven to eleven points are twelve and

544
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:13,920
Speaker 4: twenty three.

545
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:14,639
Speaker 2: Straight up.

546
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 4: If you just put the money line on all those teams,

547
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:21,440
Speaker 4: you would have a fifty two percent ROI over the

548
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 4: last couple decades. Fifty two percent. That is huge. Sprinkle

549
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:28,720
Speaker 4: that Packer's money line plus three eighty. But we're not

550
00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:32,439
Speaker 4: done yet. Taking a step further, if Green Bay wins,

551
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 4: Dallas is out, San Francisco is out, what's left? We

552
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:40,200
Speaker 4: already saw a Green Bay win in Detroit on Thanksgiving,

553
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 4: and I honestly think the Packers will be favored if

554
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 4: Detroit loses their next game. So got to play the

555
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:50,480
Speaker 4: escalator plus eleven hundred for the Packers to win the NFC.

556
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 4: Why not forget that they're a seven seed. Jordan Love

557
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 4: is the best quarterback left in the conference. How often

558
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 4: do you get to bet on the best quarterback left

559
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 4: at plus a one? And if you're doing that, we

560
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 4: gotta do it thirty to one to win the Super Bowl,

561
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 4: even if it's just a ticket to headge out once

562
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:11,719
Speaker 4: they get there. Obviously, they'd be big underdogs. Ben, if

563
00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 4: you're playing the eleven to one, you gotta play the

564
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 4: thirty to one two coming on, hot I warned you

565
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 4: Green Bay Packers hot read this week plus ten in

566
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 4: San Francisco. I think they can hang. I think they

567
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:28,040
Speaker 4: have a chance to win. History says the value is

568
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 4: on the underdog, especially against these one seeds. So Divisional

569
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 4: round hot read Green Bay Packers plus ten and a

570
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,480
Speaker 4: ride that Packers escalator. Let's have some fun.

571
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 3: Thank you, Brandon. All right, Evan, Now let's turn to

572
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 3: the AFC and let's go right. Two Steelers Bills, which

573
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 3: was supposed to be played early Sunday, but weather in

574
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 3: Buffalo volunteers having to shovel. I mean, it was a

575
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 3: big mess. There was even talk about this game potentially

576
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 3: being moved either to Tuesday or that potentially they may

577
00:29:57,800 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 3: even move the game all the way to Cleveland.

578
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 2: As a result.

579
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:03,200
Speaker 3: Well, the game did end up getting played today and

580
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 3: it pretty much went I think a lot of people

581
00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 3: thought it was going to go because the Bills were

582
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:11,120
Speaker 3: ten point favorites and they win thirty one to seventeen

583
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 3: and the thirty eight and a half, which was a

584
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 3: luck over by Nick Giffen. It does go over for

585
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 3: a thirty one to seventeen score. But now before I

586
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 3: say that the Bills did what they were supposed to do,

587
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 3: I thought the Steelers played pretty well, like it played

588
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 3: as close as possible based on what they had with

589
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 3: Mason Rudolph a quarterback, because this game, to me, felt

590
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 3: like it really came down to three plays. You had

591
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 3: the interception by Rudolph into the end zone to Deontay

592
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 3: Johnson that I thought was going to be a touchdown

593
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:41,959
Speaker 3: that might have got the game a little bit closer.

594
00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 3: Then you've got the Josh Allen fifty yard touchdown run

595
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:47,640
Speaker 3: where he's about to do the fake slide. And then

596
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 3: I mean again, the play in real time was beautiful,

597
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:52,720
Speaker 3: mind you, I had under thirty eight and a half

598
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 3: rushing yards, so it was beautiful but also bittersweet at

599
00:30:57,080 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 3: the same time. But then the roughing the passer call

600
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 3: when he's slid. I'm not saying that it wasn't a penalty,

601
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 3: but just we see quarterbacks do this all the time

602
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 3: where they get hit a little bit late and then

603
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 3: they don't get the I feel like that's such a

604
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 3: subjective call and there's so many quarterbacks that do it

605
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 3: that either don't get the call, or they do it

606
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 3: and they do get anyway, I just felt like that

607
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 3: was such a momentum shifter, and as well, I feel

608
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 3: like the Bill's got a pretty favorable whistle overall. I mean,

609
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 3: they were only penalized once the entire game, but the

610
00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 3: Steelers linebacker talent or the lack of was pretty apparent. Like,

611
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 3: for example, Dalton Kincaid call touch like it was making

612
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:40,000
Speaker 3: catches and Miles Jack was defending him, and you do

613
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 3: not want Miles Jack defending a tight end like Dalton

614
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 3: Kincaid or Dawson Knox. And then they lost Joey Porter

615
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 3: Junior to concussion as well, not that that really made

616
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 3: a huge impact, but again, he was keeping Stefan Diggs

617
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:54,280
Speaker 3: pretty much in check. But I mean, Josh Allen, dude,

618
00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 3: this run for him. It's not gonna be part of

619
00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:01,160
Speaker 3: an MVP campaign by any stretch. But three passing touchdowns

620
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 3: and most importantly no interceptions.

621
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, from Pittsburgh's point of view, this felt like the

622
00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 2: game we kind of thought was possible. Right, they look

623
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 2: like they're about to get blown out, they look like

624
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 2: the covers never possible. And then all of a sudden,

625
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 2: they're covering, and we're like, oh my god, Bills are

626
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 2: gonna blow this game. Right, it's within seven. Things are

627
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 2: looking a little shaky on offense, and then Buffalo wins

628
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 2: by double digits and Pittsburgh doesn't cover, and now it's

629
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:30,680
Speaker 2: another double digit win for Josh Allen. Just the box

630
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:33,240
Speaker 2: scores a little odd, especially if you watch the game,

631
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 2: because it felt like it could have gone both ways

632
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 2: multiple times. Very roles and scripts from the both these teams,

633
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:42,480
Speaker 2: which we've seen for a while, which is gonna be

634
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:44,560
Speaker 2: interesting for Buffalo next week. But we can wait a

635
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:49,840
Speaker 2: second there. Listen, No, TJ. Watt just kind of stinks different.

636
00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 2: It's a different team, lack of pressure just all over

637
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 2: the field. It feels like they're a little bit different.

638
00:32:57,400 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 2: One and eleven straight up for seven and one against

639
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 2: spread without what the Steelers just on paper and off paper,

640
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:08,400
Speaker 2: it kind of shows up. It's also worth noting here

641
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 2: double digit dogs four and twelve ats in the playoffs

642
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 2: in twenty eleven, double digit dogs in the wildcard, around

643
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 2: two and eight ats last twenty years. These teams usually

644
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 2: don't cover, and Pittsburgh again walking in with a negative

645
00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 2: point differential. This was just this was a tough battle.

646
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 2: The only thing that was kind of going in their

647
00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:31,000
Speaker 2: way or going in their favor, I guess you should

648
00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:35,640
Speaker 2: say was turnovers from Buffalo and Buffalo kind of you know,

649
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 2: regressing to the me and Asad, and that just didn't happen.

650
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 2: They didn't turn over the ball, and if Buffalo's not

651
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 2: going to turn it over, they ain't gonna lose.

652
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 3: I love that you just said that, because I legit

653
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 3: have this line written down. I said, opponents almost count

654
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:50,520
Speaker 3: on the Bills turnovers to stay in the game, and

655
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 3: if they don't turn it over, they are extremely tough

656
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:53,760
Speaker 3: to beat.

657
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 2: How about this one? So with no turnovers? I looked

658
00:33:56,960 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 2: it up because I was very curious. So Josh Allen

659
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 2: thirteen eighteen and two ATS after a zero turnover game,

660
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:07,360
Speaker 2: four ten and one ATS last three seasons. That is

661
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 2: the worst of eighty quarterbacks in the NFL. So I'm like,

662
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 2: we're gonna see if he can have no turnovers again

663
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:17,480
Speaker 2: against the Chiefs next week, which you know, different story,

664
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 2: but I figured i'd toss with them there.

665
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:21,360
Speaker 3: No, I appreciate that. Now, before we talk Chief spills,

666
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 3: I just wanted to mention one trend because Dawson Knox

667
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:25,880
Speaker 3: for me, is somebody that I used to bet on

668
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:28,920
Speaker 3: touchdown scores like all the time, and he's basically like

669
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:30,840
Speaker 3: an extended part of my family at this point with

670
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:32,799
Speaker 3: how much money he has made me over the years. Well,

671
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 3: here's a fun trend for you, Evan. Dawson Knox has

672
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:40,680
Speaker 3: scored in each of the last four wildcard games. Not

673
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:42,600
Speaker 3: only did he score in each of the last four

674
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:47,000
Speaker 3: wildcard games first touchdown of the game. So something just

675
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 3: to consider here because he's now this is his fifth

676
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:52,279
Speaker 3: year in the league. He didn't score, they didn't play

677
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 3: in the playoffs in his rookie year, but every wildcard

678
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:58,000
Speaker 3: game he is on point and he only had one

679
00:34:58,040 --> 00:34:59,799
Speaker 3: catch I believe today too. So like again, he wasn't

680
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:02,439
Speaker 3: really very much involved in the offense outside of being

681
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 3: a red zone threat, which he has been pretty much

682
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:08,760
Speaker 3: his entire career. But now let's talk about that matchup

683
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:12,480
Speaker 3: that we have seen routinely in the regular season and

684
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 3: an epic playoff battles that is Chiefs Bills. But now

685
00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:19,480
Speaker 3: instead of being played at Arrowhead, we're going to be

686
00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:22,360
Speaker 3: back in Buffalo. Now, this is the first time Patrick

687
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:25,360
Speaker 3: Mahomes will be in a road playoff game that's obviously

688
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:28,760
Speaker 3: not the Super Bowl. And Josh Allen and the Bills,

689
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:30,800
Speaker 3: I mean, they're three and one straight up in the

690
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 3: last four regular season games versus the Chiefs, so right now,

691
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 3: sitting about three point favorites with an over under a

692
00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:38,399
Speaker 3: forty five.

693
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:42,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's probably worth mentioning the market a little bit

694
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:45,880
Speaker 2: right now. Fifty eight percent of tickets on Buffalo, seventy

695
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:49,600
Speaker 2: five percent of the money on Buffalo, about six thousand

696
00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:54,200
Speaker 2: to ten thousand tickets early, early, early situation. But that's

697
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 2: what's happening at the moment. You got a bunch of

698
00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:58,879
Speaker 2: money on the over in that game at forty six

699
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:03,680
Speaker 2: and a half. Seventh meeting between these two quarterbacks, three

700
00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 2: and three straight up, three and three against the spread.

701
00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 2: At Mahomes has played five straight times at home against Alan.

702
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:14,880
Speaker 2: He played against him on the road just once in

703
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 2: their first meeting. The funny thing about that road Mahomes

704
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:21,280
Speaker 2: playoff is also the fact he did face the Bucks

705
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 2: in Tampa in the Super Bowl, so.

706
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 3: Right, so that was a true road game for him.

707
00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, Joe, it could be it could be any

708
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:29,359
Speaker 2: and they got crushed. But that was for a different reason,

709
00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:32,279
Speaker 2: which is just a fun stat. But either way, this

710
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:34,880
Speaker 2: is the battle. This is what everyone wants and the

711
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 2: thing that makes it fun. Not only is it in Buffalo,

712
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:41,240
Speaker 2: but Buffalo's won six in a row. Buffalo looks great.

713
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 2: Buffalo offense against Kansas City's defense feels like the matchup

714
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 2: we're kind of all waiting for, at least in my

715
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 2: point of view.

716
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:53,920
Speaker 3: And one of those six wins against the Chiefs too,

717
00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:55,719
Speaker 3: right like, So that's the other thing for me is

718
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:59,840
Speaker 3: that they know this team inside and out, and you know,

719
00:36:59,880 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 3: they won twenty to seventeen. Fairly close game. Again, Josh

720
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:05,640
Speaker 3: Allen was running all over the place in that game too,

721
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,680
Speaker 3: but that was the type of game where both quarterbacks were.

722
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:13,400
Speaker 3: They both had an interception in that game. It feels

723
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 3: like a lifetime ago at this point of when they played,

724
00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:17,960
Speaker 3: just as far as how much things have progressed. But

725
00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:21,360
Speaker 3: the one thing that I found really interesting, Evan is,

726
00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:23,920
Speaker 3: and we talk about this a lot, is about the

727
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:27,800
Speaker 3: Chiefs and Mahomes when they're either underdogs or that magic

728
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:29,839
Speaker 3: number of favorites of maybe like two and a half

729
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 3: or less against the spread. Historically, in Mahomes' career, this

730
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:38,160
Speaker 3: has been a money printer. And when we were in

731
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:40,360
Speaker 3: the Action office today, because we were all just watching

732
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:44,680
Speaker 3: this line come out and watching the hypothetical line between,

733
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 3: it was bouncing between two and a half and three

734
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 3: pretty much the entire second half, and I knew a

735
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:51,400
Speaker 3: lot of people here were locking in that three feeling

736
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 3: very confident about it because of that trend eight one and.

737
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:58,240
Speaker 2: One against the spread, seven and three straight up. Mahomes

738
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:00,759
Speaker 2: is an underdog. You're going to it all week. It's

739
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:06,520
Speaker 2: gonna be plastered everywhere. I personally don't care. I like Buffalo.

740
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:08,839
Speaker 2: I'm gonna like Buffalo in the game. I think they're

741
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:11,399
Speaker 2: a better team. I think I haven't like Kansas City

742
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:15,879
Speaker 2: all season. Their defense scares me, their offense isn't, which

743
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,760
Speaker 2: says something about the perception of the team in general.

744
00:38:19,120 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 2: So I like Buffalo. I'm probably gonna want to want

745
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:24,640
Speaker 2: the money line and want absolutely nothing to do with this.

746
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 2: I also kind of assume you're gonna get Buffalo at

747
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:29,880
Speaker 2: plus money at some point in this game, because it's

748
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:32,720
Speaker 2: Mahomes on the other side, and anytime that man scores

749
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:34,880
Speaker 2: a touchdown, they're probably gonna move it a little bit too.

750
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:37,239
Speaker 2: Much so that's just a guess and that's where my

751
00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:40,839
Speaker 2: thought goes. The other fun one and the other possibility

752
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:42,960
Speaker 2: in this game because of how close it is is

753
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:45,320
Speaker 2: the fact that Josh Allen's owens six in overtime. So

754
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:48,399
Speaker 2: if it gets there, that's gonna be the storyline. It's

755
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:50,399
Speaker 2: what everyone's gonna talk about. So we'll see.

756
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:52,920
Speaker 3: Well, and over the last six games, the Bills have

757
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 3: really shifted their focus with the new offensive coordinator since

758
00:38:56,080 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 3: they fired Ken Dorsey, a being of a running focused

759
00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:02,759
Speaker 3: team and the Chiefs, I mean, we're gonna talk about

760
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:05,399
Speaker 3: this Dolphins game in a second, but the Chiefs ranked

761
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 3: twenty six and DV away versus the run, but their

762
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:10,440
Speaker 3: their pass defense has really been what's been carrying them

763
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:13,319
Speaker 3: because they're top five in defensive DV away versus the past.

764
00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:15,960
Speaker 3: They don't give up a ton of touchdowns as well.

765
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:19,959
Speaker 3: But again, Josh Allen is not these these tomato cans

766
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:22,560
Speaker 3: that they're facing a lot of the time. And then

767
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:24,880
Speaker 3: like you're speaking of a tomato can like the Dolphins.

768
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:27,680
Speaker 3: We're gonna let's talk about that game now, Dolphins Chiefs.

769
00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 3: Chiefs win twenty six to seven felt like the most

770
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:33,719
Speaker 3: No doubt win of the weekend total goes under a

771
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:36,200
Speaker 3: forty three and a half and the Chiefs is four

772
00:39:36,239 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 3: and a half point favorites cover very easily, now, Evan, obviously,

773
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 3: I mean you're your person who covers the trends and

774
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:46,000
Speaker 3: the narratives and everything that comes attached to it. Probably

775
00:39:46,080 --> 00:39:49,400
Speaker 3: the most overused narrative storyline of the week was to

776
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:53,800
Speaker 3: attack of Baliola and his performances in cold weather, And honestly,

777
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:56,920
Speaker 3: that's probably all you needed to hear, because again, one

778
00:39:57,000 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 3: passing touchdown one hundred and ninety nine pass yards like

779
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:01,759
Speaker 3: he had a over underline a passing or is a

780
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:04,919
Speaker 3: two ten. Normally that's around like two eighty like entering

781
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:07,160
Speaker 3: a game, but because of that cold weather and obviously

782
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 3: the Chiefs secondary, they had that down to two ten,

783
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:12,480
Speaker 3: and even in garbage time, like we're all in the

784
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:15,160
Speaker 3: at the bar in New Jersey, nobody was worried about

785
00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 3: it going over like and Isaiah Pacheco and Rashi Rice,

786
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:21,000
Speaker 3: they pretty much did whatever they wanted on that defense

787
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:23,800
Speaker 3: who could not really generate a pass rush. One of

788
00:40:23,840 --> 00:40:25,359
Speaker 3: the fun bets that we were doing at the bar

789
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:27,239
Speaker 3: that we were announcing to everybody as we were taking

790
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:30,400
Speaker 3: Dolphins for no sacks because of losing Bradley Chubb and

791
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:32,880
Speaker 3: Jalen Phillips, and of course no sacks happened in the

792
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:36,280
Speaker 3: game that was paying around plus seven hundred. Now, Evan,

793
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 3: I know you had just said that, like, really you

794
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:41,320
Speaker 3: don't care about where the Chiefs are from the ats

795
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:45,440
Speaker 3: and spread standpoint, But like, I'm not sure, like you're

796
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 3: gonna hear probably a lot this week about how the

797
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 3: Chiefs they're sleeping giant watch out for the Chiefs, But

798
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:54,239
Speaker 3: I feel like I didn't really take much away from

799
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:55,719
Speaker 3: that game. I feel like that was more of an

800
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:58,759
Speaker 3: indictment on the Dolphins than giving the Chiefs a bump

801
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:00,360
Speaker 3: up and doing what they were to do.

802
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:04,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I kind of agree. All season we've seen Casey's

803
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:08,719
Speaker 2: defense step up in multiple ways in different games and

804
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:12,360
Speaker 2: different situations, and they've been the anchor of the squad.

805
00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:18,399
Speaker 2: So I don't really see how that changed too much

806
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:21,839
Speaker 2: with this one. I mean, considering this second half unders

807
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 2: in Chiefs game sixteen and two fourth quarter unders seventeen

808
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:28,760
Speaker 2: and one, it's just it's insane what they've done, especially

809
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:31,480
Speaker 2: at the end of games, to clamp down teams park

810
00:41:31,520 --> 00:41:34,279
Speaker 2: the wins. Yeah, it's been. It's been. That's a really

811
00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:36,919
Speaker 2: really good way to put it. And when I bet

812
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:39,359
Speaker 2: every team in the Wildcard round to score a touch

813
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:41,480
Speaker 2: on this weekend, I didn't think the Dolphins were going

814
00:41:41,560 --> 00:41:44,720
Speaker 2: to be the biggest sweat, which was they looked terrible.

815
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:49,040
Speaker 2: They couldn't move the ball downfield. So I think they

816
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:52,520
Speaker 2: have their own problems here right Like this season, they

817
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:55,319
Speaker 2: played four road games versus above five hundred teams. They

818
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:57,680
Speaker 2: went zero to four. They failed to cover the spread

819
00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:00,960
Speaker 2: by twenty one points per game. They scored fifteen point

820
00:42:01,040 --> 00:42:03,640
Speaker 2: eight points per game in those four games. They've got

821
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 2: problems against good teams. They've got problems outdoors. It's a

822
00:42:07,640 --> 00:42:09,760
Speaker 2: bit of a different situation to me. As a situation

823
00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:12,400
Speaker 2: for next season. I don't have too much else to

824
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:14,480
Speaker 2: say there because I think two is gonna be the quarterback,

825
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:16,359
Speaker 2: and I think they're gonna bring back mostly the same

826
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:19,280
Speaker 2: team because yeah, also there was also a lot of injuries.

827
00:42:19,640 --> 00:42:22,800
Speaker 2: I take a ton, So I think they're gonna believe

828
00:42:23,239 --> 00:42:25,440
Speaker 2: that if they ran it back, the end of the

829
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 2: season might have looked a little different. I don't know

830
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:30,879
Speaker 2: if that's the truth, but they're gonna probably run it back,

831
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:34,200
Speaker 2: So that's Miami. To me, that's the situation. I don't

832
00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:35,799
Speaker 2: I don't need to go into it too much more.

833
00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:39,040
Speaker 2: From Kansas City's point of view, the defense looked just

834
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:41,680
Speaker 2: as good as they's looked all season. I don't think

835
00:42:41,719 --> 00:42:44,800
Speaker 2: anything like that changed. And now they're gonna face a

836
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:48,799
Speaker 2: team who doesn't care what the temperature is outside. I mean,

837
00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:51,359
Speaker 2: they played a game today and you know, minus ten

838
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:53,600
Speaker 2: win chill doesn't matter to their I think it's the

839
00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:56,759
Speaker 2: team that is probably the closest to them in terms

840
00:42:56,800 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 2: of talent, and it's probably the best matchup, which is

841
00:42:59,480 --> 00:43:04,480
Speaker 2: the one reason I think Buffalo hopefully getting Gabe Davis

842
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:07,240
Speaker 2: back as well getting a little bit healthier on offense

843
00:43:07,800 --> 00:43:09,960
Speaker 2: a few more weapons is going to be a little

844
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:13,000
Speaker 2: bit much for Kansas City. But it's a perfect matchup.

845
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:16,200
Speaker 2: It really is. And consider this, right, when the Chiefs

846
00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:18,799
Speaker 2: defense allows more than twenty points this season, they're zero

847
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 2: to four. When they're not, they're twelve and two.

848
00:43:22,040 --> 00:43:24,480
Speaker 3: I don't know ifan fields trend, yeah.

849
00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:25,520
Speaker 2: I don't know if it's more I don't know if

850
00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:26,600
Speaker 2: it's more complex.

851
00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:30,959
Speaker 3: Than that good, because to me, that's amazing. I didn't

852
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:32,640
Speaker 3: know about the twenty point part. I should have went

853
00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:34,200
Speaker 3: back and looked through the game lugs to see that

854
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:36,560
Speaker 3: that's amazing. Good, fine by you all right. Now, another

855
00:43:36,640 --> 00:43:39,120
Speaker 3: game that was let's round this out. Let's talk Browns

856
00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:44,480
Speaker 3: Texans now, because Texans, I mean, we talked about shit kickings.

857
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:47,279
Speaker 3: This was a shit kicking forty five to fourteen over

858
00:43:47,360 --> 00:43:49,759
Speaker 3: the Browns. They were home underdogs. This two and a

859
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:53,520
Speaker 3: half point omberdogs to the Cleveland Browns and the forty

860
00:43:53,520 --> 00:43:55,759
Speaker 3: four and a half total, they pretty much went over

861
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 3: that by themselves. And now Stroud six and two against

862
00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:01,160
Speaker 3: the spread as an underdog now in his career. And

863
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:05,000
Speaker 3: but honestly, I feel like I'd be remiss if I

864
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 3: didn't say the Flacco dream or the Joe Flacco dream,

865
00:44:09,080 --> 00:44:12,080
Speaker 3: it just died a pretty quick death in the second half.

866
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:16,279
Speaker 3: Multiple pick six is I'm annoyed that people were not

867
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:19,880
Speaker 3: handicapping for that idea based on what we saw in

868
00:44:19,960 --> 00:44:23,720
Speaker 3: the regular season when he had eight interceptions in five games.

869
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:28,000
Speaker 3: Like and also another thing that really shocked me is

870
00:44:28,040 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 3: how we talk about how hyped up certain units are,

871
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:33,719
Speaker 3: and like, for example, the Browns defense, like they were

872
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:37,080
Speaker 3: top five in defensive DVA. Both against the run, against

873
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 3: the pass, against tight ends, like you name it. They

874
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:43,400
Speaker 3: were top five against that position and they had no

875
00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 3: answers for CJ. Stroud two hundred and seventy four passing yards,

876
00:44:47,120 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 3: three touchdowns, no interceptions, pretty much a perfect passer rating,

877
00:44:51,120 --> 00:44:54,520
Speaker 3: no sacks. Honestly, dude, like if the if Straut and

878
00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:57,279
Speaker 3: the offense are cooking like that, I'm not even sure

879
00:44:57,320 --> 00:44:58,839
Speaker 3: the Ravens are going to be able to stop them

880
00:44:58,840 --> 00:44:59,839
Speaker 3: when they eventually play next.

881
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:04,839
Speaker 2: It looked like this weekend CJ. Stroud and Jordan Love

882
00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:08,640
Speaker 2: just didn't care. They they went out there money. Yeah,

883
00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:09,960
Speaker 2: we're flinging it around.

884
00:45:10,719 --> 00:45:10,839
Speaker 3: Uh.

885
00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:14,880
Speaker 2: And it felt that way early against Cleveland, who looked

886
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:18,160
Speaker 2: like a team who'd been through five quarterbacks. It just

887
00:45:18,680 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 2: flack go to them. Yeah, it just here's the crazy one, right,

888
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:24,960
Speaker 2: So forty nine quarterbacks this year had over one hundred plays.

889
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:28,920
Speaker 2: Here's Cleveland's quarterbacks EPA per play finish. PJ. Walker was

890
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:33,520
Speaker 2: forty seventh, dtr was forty sixth, Deshaun was thirtieth, Flacco

891
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:37,000
Speaker 2: was twenty ninth. You just you need a better year

892
00:45:37,440 --> 00:45:40,960
Speaker 2: with that type of defense. That's number one off the bat. Also,

893
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:43,920
Speaker 2: you lost Nick Chubb in like Week two and this

894
00:45:44,120 --> 00:45:47,520
Speaker 2: was the season you got. Congratulations, run it back, figure

895
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:49,640
Speaker 2: out some things. You're probably going to be better for it.

896
00:45:50,040 --> 00:45:53,880
Speaker 2: The one issue, holy mackerel, that defense was terrible on

897
00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:57,120
Speaker 2: the road. And that's the thing I just can't figure

898
00:45:57,160 --> 00:45:59,719
Speaker 2: out the end of the year, allowing thirty one point

899
00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:02,399
Speaker 2: three points per game on the road and thirteen point

900
00:46:02,560 --> 00:46:04,960
Speaker 2: nine points per game at home. Here are here are

901
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:08,839
Speaker 2: the road points allowed forty five, thirty one, twenty two,

902
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:12,000
Speaker 2: thirty six, twenty nine, thirty one, thirty eight. It's it

903
00:46:12,080 --> 00:46:15,320
Speaker 2: feels almost impossible. And even think of it, like this

904
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:18,359
Speaker 2: road overs for them nine and oh, ten and oh.

905
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:21,960
Speaker 2: Dating back to last year first half roadovers also nine

906
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:26,920
Speaker 2: and oh. Something is off. Something was weird. But it's

907
00:46:26,960 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 2: worth noting because it's just so different. I can't explain it.

908
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:32,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's easy to say this after the fact,

909
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:34,600
Speaker 3: but I feel like one of the big road red

910
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:37,279
Speaker 3: flag games that we talked about, remember way back when

911
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:40,319
Speaker 3: they played the Colts and that minshew Mania, ridiculous game.

912
00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:43,160
Speaker 3: He's rushing for two touchdowns like and that was one

913
00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:45,759
Speaker 3: of those wild back and forth games. And I was

914
00:46:45,840 --> 00:46:47,759
Speaker 3: trying to think to myself do I attribute that more

915
00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:51,920
Speaker 3: to Minshew and just the the erratic random plays that

916
00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:54,280
Speaker 3: seemed to happen when he's in a football game. Baltimore.

917
00:46:54,360 --> 00:46:58,239
Speaker 2: Didn't he like Baltimore? Yeah? Oh crazy. Yeah.

918
00:46:59,120 --> 00:47:02,680
Speaker 3: So now the Texans are going to be going on

919
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:05,319
Speaker 3: the road to play Baltimore. They're going to be playing

920
00:47:05,440 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 3: Saturday at four thirty pm Eastern. The Ravens opened up

921
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:12,080
Speaker 3: his eight and a half point favorites with a total

922
00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:17,160
Speaker 3: of forty six. And again, if if he's a if

923
00:47:17,239 --> 00:47:20,320
Speaker 3: Stroud is doing that against the Browns defense. Now, the

924
00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:23,960
Speaker 3: one thing I will say is a caveat here. Lamar

925
00:47:24,080 --> 00:47:27,680
Speaker 3: Jackson and the Ravens they have put on some beatdowns

926
00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:29,719
Speaker 3: at home this year. If you go through it, like

927
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:32,719
Speaker 3: the Lions and Seahawks when they rolled through, just beat

928
00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:34,879
Speaker 3: the hell. Really, there's really one team that was able

929
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:36,480
Speaker 3: to kind of put some put a number on them,

930
00:47:36,560 --> 00:47:39,080
Speaker 3: and it was Cleveland and Deshaun Watson and them, you know,

931
00:47:39,440 --> 00:47:41,759
Speaker 3: in one game this year where really their defense looked

932
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:42,400
Speaker 3: like it got.

933
00:47:42,840 --> 00:47:44,840
Speaker 2: A quote unquote exposed, you know.

934
00:47:45,000 --> 00:47:47,440
Speaker 3: But that was about it. And I almost kind of

935
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:50,040
Speaker 3: downgrade that a little bit because it's a divisional matchup.

936
00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:53,520
Speaker 3: But right now, looking at this game, I really love

937
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:54,960
Speaker 3: the Texans here at eight and a half.

938
00:47:56,000 --> 00:47:59,440
Speaker 2: Yeah. I would also say the Rams played the Ravens

939
00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:03,759
Speaker 2: dec well Regal in that game too. She probably should

940
00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:07,680
Speaker 2: have won that game. So from Baltimore's point of view,

941
00:48:08,080 --> 00:48:10,239
Speaker 2: I think the stat that everyone's going to try to

942
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:15,000
Speaker 2: point to is Lamar stinks when he's on like tons

943
00:48:15,040 --> 00:48:17,520
Speaker 2: of rest. He just kind of does. He's five and

944
00:48:17,600 --> 00:48:20,919
Speaker 2: two straight up, but doesn't cover the number, which really

945
00:48:21,040 --> 00:48:23,480
Speaker 2: does matter this week because they're laying a lot of

946
00:48:23,520 --> 00:48:25,440
Speaker 2: points because that's up to eight and a half now

947
00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:27,520
Speaker 2: and I wouldn't be shocked to see it at nine.

948
00:48:27,600 --> 00:48:31,120
Speaker 2: He's one in six ats on twelve days twelve plus

949
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:33,759
Speaker 2: days rest, which is basically a bye, and that's not

950
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:37,279
Speaker 2: counting Week one, so we're talking in season and he's

951
00:48:37,440 --> 00:48:39,920
Speaker 2: zero in six ats. Is a favorite in that spot,

952
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:43,520
Speaker 2: so this is something he hasn't done, even as a

953
00:48:43,560 --> 00:48:46,360
Speaker 2: favorite of over a touchdown He's eleven and fifteen ats.

954
00:48:46,800 --> 00:48:51,280
Speaker 2: It's just not great. But Baltimore has looked absolutely ridiculous,

955
00:48:51,400 --> 00:48:55,319
Speaker 2: completely dominant in every way, shape, form or fashion. Now

956
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:57,640
Speaker 2: they're adding Dalvin Cook, which I hope they don't give

957
00:48:57,719 --> 00:49:00,839
Speaker 2: him a ton of carries and and you get Mark

958
00:49:00,880 --> 00:49:03,880
Speaker 2: Andrews back, So you're going to add Andrews to an

959
00:49:03,920 --> 00:49:07,320
Speaker 2: offense to where Isaiah likely has looked absolutely fantastic. It

960
00:49:07,520 --> 00:49:12,280
Speaker 2: feels like Baltimore is in a perfect situation. But CJ.

961
00:49:12,440 --> 00:49:14,959
Speaker 2: Strato just doesn't look like he cares, and it looks

962
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:17,760
Speaker 2: like he's gonna, you know, probably put up a decent

963
00:49:17,800 --> 00:49:20,120
Speaker 2: amount of points on this team, and the pressure, to me,

964
00:49:20,280 --> 00:49:24,600
Speaker 2: is going to be on Lamar. So interesting nonetheless from

965
00:49:24,640 --> 00:49:26,479
Speaker 2: the Texas point of view, though, I think you feel

966
00:49:26,480 --> 00:49:28,880
Speaker 2: like you have to talk about the ticket right season,

967
00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:31,640
Speaker 2: two hundred to one entered the year, so they're the

968
00:49:31,680 --> 00:49:34,360
Speaker 2: first team since the eighty one Giants two hundred to

969
00:49:34,440 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 2: one or higher to advance to the divisional rounds. So

970
00:49:37,840 --> 00:49:39,719
Speaker 2: haven't seen this ticket in a long time.

971
00:49:41,280 --> 00:49:42,840
Speaker 3: And the other thing I was going to bring up

972
00:49:42,880 --> 00:49:45,600
Speaker 3: too is these two teams they met in Week one CJ.

973
00:49:45,719 --> 00:49:48,680
Speaker 3: Strauss first start in the NFL. They lose twenty five

974
00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:51,920
Speaker 3: to nine. Lamar runs for pretty much like two touchdowns

975
00:49:51,960 --> 00:49:54,239
Speaker 3: in that game. But I wanted to bring that up

976
00:49:54,280 --> 00:49:57,000
Speaker 3: to not just to tell betters maybe don't weigh that

977
00:49:57,280 --> 00:50:00,480
Speaker 3: result too much, because it probably took about two to

978
00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:03,160
Speaker 3: three weeks before Stroud started to look a little comfortable

979
00:50:03,400 --> 00:50:05,560
Speaker 3: and that's when the Texans and that offense started just

980
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:09,120
Speaker 3: taking off. But yeah, the twenty five to nine result,

981
00:50:09,560 --> 00:50:11,800
Speaker 3: that was just one of those games where it was

982
00:50:11,920 --> 00:50:15,479
Speaker 3: interesting because they gave up three rushing touchdowns in that game.

983
00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:18,560
Speaker 3: But by the end of the year, the Texans were

984
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:20,600
Speaker 3: second than d V a way versus the run, and

985
00:50:20,719 --> 00:50:22,560
Speaker 3: they were one of the better teams defending the run.

986
00:50:22,640 --> 00:50:24,399
Speaker 3: But part of the thing is that they're really good

987
00:50:24,400 --> 00:50:27,600
Speaker 3: at defending the run. Between the twenties, once they get

988
00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:29,600
Speaker 3: into the red zone, they were giving up. They gave

989
00:50:29,680 --> 00:50:32,399
Speaker 3: up nineteen touchdowns to running on the ground this year,

990
00:50:32,680 --> 00:50:36,440
Speaker 3: which again just I brought that up because that's the

991
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:38,200
Speaker 3: way that I was looking at it when they played

992
00:50:38,239 --> 00:50:41,320
Speaker 3: the Browns and you saw it. And again, there's no

993
00:50:41,440 --> 00:50:43,400
Speaker 3: way that even though I had Kareem Hunt for at

994
00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:46,040
Speaker 3: anytime touchdown, there is no way that I would have

995
00:50:46,080 --> 00:50:48,759
Speaker 3: walked away thinking to myself, Yeah, Kareem Hunt is gonna

996
00:50:48,760 --> 00:50:50,360
Speaker 3: be the only guy who scores a touchdown today for

997
00:50:50,440 --> 00:50:54,719
Speaker 3: the Browns. So very interesting. I imagine this line is

998
00:50:54,800 --> 00:50:59,120
Speaker 3: gonna move maybe maybe down to eight. I'm interested to

999
00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:02,080
Speaker 3: see what's the early ticket action right now between Ravens

1000
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:02,600
Speaker 3: and Texans.

1001
00:51:03,200 --> 00:51:05,279
Speaker 2: Honestly, so it spreads up to nine and a half

1002
00:51:05,440 --> 00:51:08,719
Speaker 2: right now for Ravens past nine and a half. And

1003
00:51:10,160 --> 00:51:12,799
Speaker 2: I don't think this is very shocking, but right now

1004
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:17,560
Speaker 2: Texans seventy two percent of the tickets. It would be, yeah,

1005
00:51:17,719 --> 00:51:19,760
Speaker 2: seventy two percent of the tickets right now. The Lions

1006
00:51:20,040 --> 00:51:21,799
Speaker 2: would be the biggest public side right now. They're at

1007
00:51:21,840 --> 00:51:24,920
Speaker 2: seventy eight percent against the Bucks in early action, but

1008
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:28,520
Speaker 2: seventy two percent on the Texans, and Green Bay's got

1009
00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:32,080
Speaker 2: seventy three percent as well, So everybody is absolutely jumping

1010
00:51:32,160 --> 00:51:35,960
Speaker 2: on the dogs. So maybe you'll get two double digit

1011
00:51:36,120 --> 00:51:39,600
Speaker 2: dogs on Saturday trying to pull up sets, which should

1012
00:51:39,600 --> 00:51:39,879
Speaker 2: be fun.

1013
00:51:40,719 --> 00:51:42,439
Speaker 3: All right, Do you have anything more to add, Evan

1014
00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:43,440
Speaker 3: before we wrap it up?

1015
00:51:44,360 --> 00:51:47,760
Speaker 2: Uh No, I'm just a really really fun slate of games.

1016
00:51:48,480 --> 00:51:52,000
Speaker 2: I think the especially tonight with Tampa Bay. I mean, listen,

1017
00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:55,520
Speaker 2: Philly looked absolutely terrible. I think they really did collapse

1018
00:51:55,560 --> 00:51:56,759
Speaker 2: at the end of the year, and you could even

1019
00:51:56,800 --> 00:51:59,200
Speaker 2: see it early on with some of those runs from Tampa.

1020
00:51:59,520 --> 00:52:04,320
Speaker 2: They're just wasn't life in Philly so fun? Weekend? And

1021
00:52:04,719 --> 00:52:06,879
Speaker 2: I think It kind of sets up for a good

1022
00:52:06,960 --> 00:52:09,800
Speaker 2: next weekend with the rookie quarterbacks and the young with

1023
00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:13,560
Speaker 2: Love and Baker's story now advancing, and then the end

1024
00:52:13,560 --> 00:52:15,440
Speaker 2: the weekend with Mahomes and Allen. You can't really get

1025
00:52:15,480 --> 00:52:15,840
Speaker 2: better than that.

1026
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:18,520
Speaker 3: And I will say too, I feel like in the AFC,

1027
00:52:19,280 --> 00:52:22,480
Speaker 3: the four best teams in the AFC are left. Like

1028
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:24,200
Speaker 3: if you went through it, I mean, you could maybe

1029
00:52:24,280 --> 00:52:27,480
Speaker 3: make a case for Cincinnati with Burrow, but I think

1030
00:52:27,600 --> 00:52:29,960
Speaker 3: right now, based on what we've seen, those were the

1031
00:52:30,000 --> 00:52:34,040
Speaker 3: four best teams in the AFC. So whereas that the NFC. Sure,

1032
00:52:34,320 --> 00:52:36,040
Speaker 3: you know, you could say the Cowboys are up there,

1033
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:39,320
Speaker 3: but Ball don't lie, you know what I mean? And

1034
00:52:39,480 --> 00:52:42,200
Speaker 3: that's where it is now, right, So I just want

1035
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:42,640
Speaker 3: one more.

1036
00:52:42,760 --> 00:52:45,760
Speaker 2: So Love was the only lone QB in the NFC

1037
00:52:45,920 --> 00:52:49,840
Speaker 2: without playoff experience. Three in the AFC didn't, so I

1038
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:53,560
Speaker 2: was Tua, Rudolph and Stroud. So now Stroud and Love

1039
00:52:54,160 --> 00:52:55,640
Speaker 2: gone to the next rounds. That's funny.

1040
00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:57,560
Speaker 3: He might as well be a veteran though, I mean

1041
00:52:57,640 --> 00:53:01,239
Speaker 3: needs three year season on the bench. But all right,

1042
00:53:01,320 --> 00:53:03,719
Speaker 3: so that was wild Card weekend. Let's check in with

1043
00:53:03,840 --> 00:53:06,879
Speaker 3: Patrick Everson for Vegas. Insider to see how sportsbooks fared

1044
00:53:07,000 --> 00:53:09,240
Speaker 3: in Las Vegas for wild Card weekend.

1045
00:53:09,560 --> 00:53:11,839
Speaker 1: Hey, Jill, thanks for having me back on the Action

1046
00:53:12,080 --> 00:53:16,040
Speaker 1: Network podcast. Happy to be here after this super Wildcard

1047
00:53:16,120 --> 00:53:21,400
Speaker 1: weekend that went super poorly if you were the public, recreational,

1048
00:53:21,560 --> 00:53:25,640
Speaker 1: casual betting type. The public just got smashed over the

1049
00:53:25,719 --> 00:53:29,040
Speaker 1: course of this weekend. It started really with the first

1050
00:53:29,120 --> 00:53:32,120
Speaker 1: game that Texans Browns. The public was all over the Browns,

1051
00:53:32,160 --> 00:53:33,880
Speaker 1: and the Texans go out and went out right. They

1052
00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:36,239
Speaker 1: were taking the Browns on the spread and on the

1053
00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:39,040
Speaker 1: money line, even you know, laying that little price on

1054
00:53:39,120 --> 00:53:41,440
Speaker 1: the money line on Cleveland. So that was a good

1055
00:53:41,520 --> 00:53:45,160
Speaker 1: result for the books. And then of course Sunday the

1056
00:53:45,239 --> 00:53:49,359
Speaker 1: Green Bay Packers just boat racing the Dallas Cowboys. Jill,

1057
00:53:49,400 --> 00:53:51,200
Speaker 1: I think you're a fan of the Cowboys, so my

1058
00:53:51,280 --> 00:53:54,440
Speaker 1: condolence is, sir, don't know what happened there. I was

1059
00:53:54,480 --> 00:53:58,080
Speaker 1: as shocked as probably everybody else was. But boy was

1060
00:53:58,520 --> 00:54:01,240
Speaker 1: that was the outcome that really made the books weekend.

1061
00:54:01,280 --> 00:54:04,280
Speaker 1: And we're talking books across the country here in Vegas,

1062
00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:07,920
Speaker 1: you know, betem jam and everybody else. It was just

1063
00:54:07,960 --> 00:54:10,640
Speaker 1: an absolute blood letting for the public and a huge,

1064
00:54:10,920 --> 00:54:16,400
Speaker 1: huge win for the book makers nationally. At BETMGM, Kristen

1065
00:54:16,440 --> 00:54:19,120
Speaker 1: Sippolini said, that was the one game this weekend we

1066
00:54:19,320 --> 00:54:23,560
Speaker 1: really needed. Packers outright. Was as good as it gets.

1067
00:54:24,040 --> 00:54:26,800
Speaker 1: Now we got an even better comment from BETMGM Nevada

1068
00:54:26,960 --> 00:54:29,320
Speaker 1: Scott Shelton. Now he's only speaking to what happened in

1069
00:54:29,360 --> 00:54:33,239
Speaker 1: the Nevada market, But Scott Sheldon, prior to BETEMGM being BETEMJAM,

1070
00:54:33,360 --> 00:54:35,920
Speaker 1: it was just MGM Resorts sportsbooks here in Las Vegas.

1071
00:54:36,239 --> 00:54:38,920
Speaker 1: Scott Shelton has been working here for like two decades

1072
00:54:39,000 --> 00:54:42,839
Speaker 1: plus behind the counter for the MGM Resorts or now BETMGM.

1073
00:54:43,200 --> 00:54:47,840
Speaker 1: And here's what he said about Sunday, primarily the Packers

1074
00:54:47,920 --> 00:54:51,319
Speaker 1: Cowboys game, but the late game contributed as well. He said,

1075
00:54:51,760 --> 00:54:55,200
Speaker 1: Sunday was the biggest single day win that I can recall,

1076
00:54:55,560 --> 00:54:59,800
Speaker 1: including Super Bowls. As good as the Packers win was,

1077
00:55:00,480 --> 00:55:03,960
Speaker 1: we also middled the Lions Rams with betters playing the

1078
00:55:04,080 --> 00:55:06,879
Speaker 1: Rams on the money line and the Lions minus three.

1079
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:09,600
Speaker 1: And remember the Lions won by one point four to

1080
00:55:09,640 --> 00:55:11,960
Speaker 1: twenty three. So the book scooped up all the Rams

1081
00:55:12,040 --> 00:55:16,040
Speaker 1: money line play and all the Lions spread play along

1082
00:55:16,120 --> 00:55:18,400
Speaker 1: with the massive win it got from the Packers just

1083
00:55:18,560 --> 00:55:21,320
Speaker 1: rolling over the Dallas Cowboys, and he said that second

1084
00:55:21,400 --> 00:55:23,960
Speaker 1: game also somehow went under as well. It was totally

1085
00:55:24,000 --> 00:55:26,120
Speaker 1: on an overpath all game long, and then you know

1086
00:55:26,320 --> 00:55:28,279
Speaker 1: much of the game, I should say say all game,

1087
00:55:28,560 --> 00:55:30,520
Speaker 1: but most of the game it was very much on

1088
00:55:30,600 --> 00:55:34,160
Speaker 1: an overtrack. It slowed down late ultimately the over did

1089
00:55:34,239 --> 00:55:35,880
Speaker 1: not get there, so they got the under as well,

1090
00:55:35,920 --> 00:55:39,040
Speaker 1: which they also needed in that in that Lions game,

1091
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 1: in the Rams Lions game. So Scott said, you put

1092
00:55:42,120 --> 00:55:45,240
Speaker 1: it all together. It was basically a miracle. So a huge,

1093
00:55:45,320 --> 00:55:47,640
Speaker 1: huge win. Like I said, I just can't This is

1094
00:55:47,680 --> 00:55:49,440
Speaker 1: the thing that baffles me. Just Bob's my line. As

1095
00:55:49,520 --> 00:55:52,200
Speaker 1: you said yesterday, and I'm talking to you on Monday night,

1096
00:55:52,280 --> 00:55:56,040
Speaker 1: so he's speaking to Sunday. Was the biggest single day

1097
00:55:56,480 --> 00:55:59,840
Speaker 1: win that I can recall, including Super Bowls. That was

1098
00:56:00,160 --> 00:56:03,000
Speaker 1: comment that I got that really stood out the most

1099
00:56:03,080 --> 00:56:05,959
Speaker 1: on this. Now we you know, when you're talking about

1100
00:56:05,960 --> 00:56:08,839
Speaker 1: Monday games. The Steelers Bills game, that was pretty good

1101
00:56:08,840 --> 00:56:10,600
Speaker 1: two way action of most books for the for the

1102
00:56:10,640 --> 00:56:13,080
Speaker 1: most part, they probably needed the Steelers in the end

1103
00:56:13,400 --> 00:56:15,919
Speaker 1: because of you know, money line parlays and straight bet

1104
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:20,200
Speaker 1: parlays on on Buffalo, so they did not get that. However,

1105
00:56:20,560 --> 00:56:23,000
Speaker 1: a lot of people were money line parlaying, if that's

1106
00:56:23,040 --> 00:56:26,160
Speaker 1: the term, the bills to the Eagles, and the Eagles

1107
00:56:26,200 --> 00:56:29,200
Speaker 1: got upset on Monday night. Modest upset, but the Eagles,

1108
00:56:29,360 --> 00:56:31,760
Speaker 1: you know, dumpster fire of late and the NFC champions

1109
00:56:31,800 --> 00:56:34,440
Speaker 1: are now defending NFC champions now out of the picture.

1110
00:56:34,880 --> 00:56:37,839
Speaker 1: Losing to Tampa Bay, well that blew up a bunch

1111
00:56:37,880 --> 00:56:40,000
Speaker 1: of moneyline parlays that were running bills to the Eagles.

1112
00:56:40,040 --> 00:56:43,840
Speaker 1: So yet another win for the books over the mostly

1113
00:56:44,080 --> 00:56:47,680
Speaker 1: public betting masses. So a good weekend for the books,

1114
00:56:47,800 --> 00:56:49,960
Speaker 1: not so good for the betters. Hopefully the betters can

1115
00:56:50,040 --> 00:56:52,600
Speaker 1: recalibrate and be able to come back with something for

1116
00:56:52,719 --> 00:56:55,680
Speaker 1: the divisional round of the playoffs, and those odds are

1117
00:56:55,719 --> 00:56:58,000
Speaker 1: on the board if you got four games. I did

1118
00:56:58,040 --> 00:56:59,880
Speaker 1: talk to a Vegas odds maker about all four of

1119
00:56:59,920 --> 00:57:02,000
Speaker 1: the we'll just quickly touch on all for them, real quickly.

1120
00:57:02,520 --> 00:57:05,440
Speaker 1: Baltimore opens nine and a half against Houston. That's the

1121
00:57:05,480 --> 00:57:08,040
Speaker 1: first game of the weekend on Saturday, and the odds

1122
00:57:08,120 --> 00:57:11,239
Speaker 1: maker said this matchup as similar to Green Bay San Francisco,

1123
00:57:11,600 --> 00:57:13,600
Speaker 1: which I'll get to in a moment. He said, Baltimore's

1124
00:57:13,640 --> 00:57:16,160
Speaker 1: power rating is really high, so this is a much

1125
00:57:16,200 --> 00:57:18,600
Speaker 1: tougher test for CJ. Stroud a Houston. He said some

1126
00:57:18,760 --> 00:57:21,840
Speaker 1: public betters might get caught up in the Houston story,

1127
00:57:21,960 --> 00:57:23,920
Speaker 1: but he thinks Baltimore will see the bulk of the

1128
00:57:23,920 --> 00:57:27,080
Speaker 1: money and they're gonna need Houston comes Saturday. Moving on

1129
00:57:27,160 --> 00:57:31,360
Speaker 1: to Saturday Night, Packers against the Niners. Obviously recency bias,

1130
00:57:31,920 --> 00:57:33,800
Speaker 1: could you know, would normally come into play here, but

1131
00:57:33,840 --> 00:57:35,840
Speaker 1: it's the San Francisco forty nine ers you're talking about

1132
00:57:35,880 --> 00:57:37,000
Speaker 1: here who had to buy.

1133
00:57:37,360 --> 00:57:37,520
Speaker 2: Well.

1134
00:57:37,520 --> 00:57:40,720
Speaker 1: The Packers looked great against the Cowboys, but as the

1135
00:57:40,720 --> 00:57:43,680
Speaker 1: odds maker said, the Packers looked awesome, but San Francisco's

1136
00:57:43,720 --> 00:57:47,040
Speaker 1: power rating is in a different class, and we're expecting

1137
00:57:47,080 --> 00:57:49,120
Speaker 1: the public to still be on the Niners. So they

1138
00:57:49,160 --> 00:57:52,080
Speaker 1: expect to need the Packers this week, and they needed

1139
00:57:52,120 --> 00:57:54,760
Speaker 1: the Packers last week though, when they got them, and

1140
00:57:54,840 --> 00:57:57,120
Speaker 1: as I noted a few moments ago, the Bucks blew

1141
00:57:57,160 --> 00:58:00,439
Speaker 1: out the Eagles to advance, but then opened as point

1142
00:58:00,600 --> 00:58:03,320
Speaker 1: road underdogs against the Detroit Lions would get their first

1143
00:58:03,320 --> 00:58:06,240
Speaker 1: playoff win in thirty two years. The odds maker said

1144
00:58:06,240 --> 00:58:09,040
Speaker 1: this line would have opened higher than six, but because

1145
00:58:09,120 --> 00:58:12,200
Speaker 1: Tampa had such a decisive wildcard victory thirty two to

1146
00:58:12,360 --> 00:58:15,800
Speaker 1: nine over the defending Anbasty champion of Philadelphia Eagles. He said,

1147
00:58:16,760 --> 00:58:19,880
Speaker 1: with such a decisive wildcard victory for Tampa, that equals

1148
00:58:20,120 --> 00:58:23,520
Speaker 1: the line shaded in the Bucks direction slightly. It could

1149
00:58:23,560 --> 00:58:25,520
Speaker 1: be headed the you know, could head north. We'll see

1150
00:58:25,520 --> 00:58:28,640
Speaker 1: how betters take it, especially with BETAMGM. They get bet

1151
00:58:29,280 --> 00:58:32,520
Speaker 1: betam jam Michigan takes in a ton of action and

1152
00:58:32,640 --> 00:58:36,680
Speaker 1: they bet. The regional bias there is tremendous, So don't

1153
00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:38,640
Speaker 1: be surprised if it comes in heavy at bet MGM

1154
00:58:39,120 --> 00:58:40,919
Speaker 1: on the lines for this week, and that that line

1155
00:58:40,960 --> 00:58:43,240
Speaker 1: may be heading north of six, maybe six and a half,

1156
00:58:43,320 --> 00:58:45,440
Speaker 1: maybe it even gets to seven. And then you got

1157
00:58:45,520 --> 00:58:48,400
Speaker 1: really the marquee matchup of the divisional playoff round, Kansas

1158
00:58:48,440 --> 00:58:51,040
Speaker 1: City Chiefs at the Buffalo Bills recalled Buffalo went to

1159
00:58:51,120 --> 00:58:54,000
Speaker 1: Kansas City earlier in the season and won. And these

1160
00:58:54,040 --> 00:58:56,360
Speaker 1: teams definitely have some great history over the past few

1161
00:58:56,440 --> 00:58:59,960
Speaker 1: years with Patrick Holmes and Josh Allen, so the oddsmaker

1162
00:59:00,160 --> 00:59:02,480
Speaker 1: and Bills minus two and a half minus one twenty

1163
00:59:03,040 --> 00:59:06,600
Speaker 1: this evening, noting that Buffalo's banged up defense could be

1164
00:59:06,680 --> 00:59:08,120
Speaker 1: an issue here. There are a lot of players hurt

1165
00:59:08,160 --> 00:59:10,640
Speaker 1: and they lost to another player in today's game against

1166
00:59:10,640 --> 00:59:14,440
Speaker 1: the Steelers, so that notwithstanding, the odds maker said, these

1167
00:59:14,480 --> 00:59:16,800
Speaker 1: two teams have pretty similar power ratings at this point,

1168
00:59:17,080 --> 00:59:20,760
Speaker 1: with a slight nod to Buffalo, and Buffalo's not even

1169
00:59:20,760 --> 00:59:22,000
Speaker 1: getting him. And if you'd like to think that the

1170
00:59:22,160 --> 00:59:25,040
Speaker 1: home team has it's a three point, you know, kind

1171
00:59:25,080 --> 00:59:27,920
Speaker 1: of bump for playing at home. Well, Buffalo's two and

1172
00:59:27,960 --> 00:59:29,760
Speaker 1: a half minus one twenty, so they're not a really

1173
00:59:29,960 --> 00:59:32,920
Speaker 1: not even really giving Buffalo the full three point edge there,

1174
00:59:33,000 --> 00:59:34,920
Speaker 1: which so they're saying on a neutral field it this

1175
00:59:34,960 --> 00:59:37,960
Speaker 1: will basically be a pick game. So there you have it.

1176
00:59:38,040 --> 00:59:41,280
Speaker 1: Jill will look at how the NFL Super wild Card

1177
00:59:41,320 --> 00:59:43,640
Speaker 1: weekend went and again not very well for the betters,

1178
00:59:43,680 --> 00:59:47,160
Speaker 1: but hopefully they can recalibrate and come back and do

1179
00:59:47,320 --> 00:59:50,480
Speaker 1: better on the divisional playoff round weekend, and a look

1180
00:59:50,480 --> 00:59:52,440
Speaker 1: ahead to that week to that next weekend. There's going

1181
00:59:52,520 --> 00:59:54,560
Speaker 1: to be some really good matchups coming up. We'll see

1182
00:59:54,560 --> 00:59:58,040
Speaker 1: if some of these upstarts, the Packers, the Texans, the Bucks,

1183
00:59:58,400 --> 01:00:00,840
Speaker 1: see if they can continue to make things interesting.

1184
01:00:01,280 --> 01:00:03,600
Speaker 3: Have a great week, Okay, thank you Patrick, and thank

1185
01:00:03,600 --> 01:00:06,040
Speaker 3: you for listening to the Action Network podcast presented by

1186
01:00:06,200 --> 01:00:08,720
Speaker 3: bet MGM. Enjoy the rest of your week and keep

1187
01:00:08,720 --> 01:00:11,040
Speaker 3: an eye out for all of our NFL Divisional Round

1188
01:00:11,120 --> 01:00:14,040
Speaker 3: podcasts right here on the Action Network.

1189
01:00:29,720 --> 01:00:34,200
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1190
01:00:34,280 --> 01:00:37,040
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1191
01:00:37,040 --> 01:00:40,120
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler