1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,719 Speaker 1: Hi, this is Dana Perkins and you're listening to Switch 2 00:00:02,759 --> 00:00:05,200 Speaker 1: It on the b n F podcast. Today's show is 3 00:00:05,200 --> 00:00:09,440 Speaker 1: about agriculture carbon offsets. This is currently a very small 4 00:00:09,520 --> 00:00:12,080 Speaker 1: part of the voluntary offsets market, but hang in with 5 00:00:12,119 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 1: me here there is potential for growth and importantly innovation 6 00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:19,720 Speaker 1: which could lead to changes to our agricultural food system 7 00:00:19,800 --> 00:00:23,280 Speaker 1: that at scale could really have a meaningful impact. Direct 8 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 1: emissions from the agriculture sector currently make up roughly eleven 9 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 1: percent of global totals, with soil management and livestock related 10 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:35,279 Speaker 1: activities as the biggest parts. When thinking about solutions, it's 11 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 1: going to be the farmers and their farming practices that 12 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 1: will reduce emissions. So offsets give them a market and 13 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,280 Speaker 1: a bit of inspiration to spur this innovation. Today I 14 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:50,520 Speaker 1: get to speak with Kyle Harrison, who leads our sustainability 15 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:53,360 Speaker 1: research team at BENF and he spends a lot of 16 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 1: time looking at carbon offsets of all kinds. As a 17 00:00:56,760 --> 00:01:00,440 Speaker 1: quick reminder, b ANF does not provide investment or strategy advice, 18 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:02,800 Speaker 1: and we have a complete disclaimer at the end of 19 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:05,960 Speaker 1: the show. And now let's jump into our conversation with 20 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:15,760 Speaker 1: Kyle about agriculture carbon offsets. Kyle, thanks for coming on 21 00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:17,759 Speaker 1: back to the show. Thanks for having me so our 22 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 1: favorite topic that you and I discuss when we're on here, 23 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:23,600 Speaker 1: which is the wonderful world of offsets, And this time 24 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:28,080 Speaker 1: we're going to be talking about agriculture offsets. And so actually, 25 00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:32,200 Speaker 1: let's just definitionally, Well, that's a mouthful jump right in. 26 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:38,400 Speaker 1: Can you explain what an agriculture specific offset actually is? Sure? 27 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 1: And I think maybe taking one step back even further, right, 28 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:44,479 Speaker 1: when we talk about a carbon offset, we think about 29 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 1: a verified emission reduction certificate or credit that can be 30 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 1: bought and sold by various parties. So a corporation can 31 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:55,320 Speaker 1: buy one of these offsets and retire it or cancel 32 00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:57,800 Speaker 1: it from the market, and then they can neutralize their 33 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:00,840 Speaker 1: own hard to abate emissions. And generally, when we talk 34 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:04,560 Speaker 1: about carbon offsets, we're looking at a couple of specific sectors, 35 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:07,280 Speaker 1: and these are the ones that get most of the love. Right, 36 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 1: it's energy generation projects like clean energy, it's avoided deforestation 37 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 1: and reforestation, and then there's all the other sectors like 38 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 1: clean cookstoves for example. But when we talk about agriculture 39 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:24,359 Speaker 1: carbon offsets, we're thinking about avoiding or removing emissions from 40 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 1: any sustainable practice in agriculture. So that can be something 41 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 1: like more sustainable management of manure or feeding livestock different 42 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:36,919 Speaker 1: food so that their digestion process changes and they emit 43 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:39,160 Speaker 1: less methane. But it could also be the way that 44 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 1: we change the water usage, for example, for rice cultivation. 45 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 1: So there's a whole slew of potential subsectors within agriculture 46 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 1: that can avoid or remove emissions and as a result, 47 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 1: they can create these carbon offsets that can be bought 48 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:55,440 Speaker 1: by companies. And to further frame this, how much of 49 00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:58,880 Speaker 1: direct emissions are actually coming from the agricultural sector now, 50 00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:01,920 Speaker 1: So there's a lot of different estimates on this, and 51 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:05,639 Speaker 1: it depends on what subsectors you include, but generally you're 52 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 1: looking at a range of around eleven to of global 53 00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:13,080 Speaker 1: greenhouse gas emissions coming from agriculture, and so there's a 54 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:17,360 Speaker 1: huge role to play here by again employing sustainable practices 55 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:20,800 Speaker 1: to reduce those emissions. And we've talked about offsets here 56 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 1: in the past, so if people want to go back 57 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 1: to even more definitions the things that Kyle just let 58 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 1: us into, you know what this voluntary offset space really is, 59 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 1: how big is this agriculture offset space that we're going 60 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 1: to talk about today in terms of the market, Is 61 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:39,960 Speaker 1: this an innovation or is this a big part of 62 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:45,200 Speaker 1: the voluntary offset market. It's essentially non existent or tiny today. 63 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 1: And there there is an asterisk to that which i'll 64 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 1: which i'll go into a little bit more. But when 65 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:52,160 Speaker 1: we talk about the offset markets today and we think 66 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 1: about supply of carbon offsets, you're looking at between two 67 00:03:56,520 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 1: and three hundred million carbon offsets being issued on on 68 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 1: an annual basis. The record in terms of carbonof set 69 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 1: issuance in the agriculture space to date was one point 70 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 1: five million carbon offsets in twenty seventeen. That supply has 71 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:16,720 Speaker 1: actually dropped year on near since, so a very very 72 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:21,760 Speaker 1: tiny percent of the market on registry comes from agriculture today. However, 73 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:24,480 Speaker 1: there is this important part of the agriculture offs at 74 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 1: market that makes it quite unique, and that is the 75 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 1: fact that there is a thriving what we call off 76 00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 1: registry ecosystem. And so what that means is that when 77 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 1: you buy a carbon offset today, a lot of projects 78 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:40,240 Speaker 1: are listed on a registry. The biggest ones are VERA, 79 00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 1: there's ones like gold Standard, and then the American Carbon Registry, 80 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 1: for example, and there can be quite expensive fees for 81 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:49,839 Speaker 1: listing those projects on registry. So what you see in 82 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:52,520 Speaker 1: the agriculture spaces a lot of small farmers that are 83 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:58,160 Speaker 1: adopting sustainable agriculture practices, they'll sell their offsets on marketplaces 84 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 1: that are off registry. So for example, they'll go through 85 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:04,359 Speaker 1: companies like Nori where they bypass that fee for listing 86 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:07,320 Speaker 1: their project and then they can sell those offsets directly 87 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:10,200 Speaker 1: to customers offer registry. So it's a little bit difficult 88 00:05:10,240 --> 00:05:13,919 Speaker 1: to say just how big the overall market is. But 89 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:15,880 Speaker 1: with the data that we do have, the data that 90 00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:19,480 Speaker 1: we can analyze is that on registry market and right 91 00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:22,360 Speaker 1: now it is absolutely tiny, but we don't think it 92 00:05:22,360 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 1: will be that way for long. And there's a number 93 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:26,039 Speaker 1: of different reasons for that. Well, and the reason I 94 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:28,279 Speaker 1: asked you to come on today isn't because this is 95 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:32,119 Speaker 1: a huge space that you know is unavoidable. It's more 96 00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:37,120 Speaker 1: that this is part of the solution finding space within agriculture, 97 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:41,919 Speaker 1: which is complicated, super fragmented, and we at b NF 98 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:43,840 Speaker 1: do really like to think about, well, what are the 99 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 1: potential solutions and what could scale. So you mentioned the 100 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:51,800 Speaker 1: off registry offset space being potentially really appealing to some 101 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 1: of the smaller farmers out there. I guess then that 102 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:56,359 Speaker 1: makes a question what's in it for them? What's in 103 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 1: it for a farmer to even be an on registry 104 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:02,479 Speaker 1: listing for an offset, and how lucrative is this for them. 105 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:04,480 Speaker 1: There's a few different ways to think about this, and 106 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:08,720 Speaker 1: one of them is kind of the classic corporate sustainability strategy, right, 107 00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 1: which is by adopting sustainable practices in a lot of cases, 108 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 1: you're saving on resources. So maybe we can use that 109 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 1: example of rice cultivation. Like I mentioned before, when someone 110 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:22,800 Speaker 1: cultivates rice or grows rice, typically they do that in 111 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:24,720 Speaker 1: a rice patty, and what they do is that they 112 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:27,479 Speaker 1: drown that patty and water in order to go ahead 113 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 1: and produce that rice. For starters, that's using a ton 114 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,280 Speaker 1: of water resources, right, and that water needs to be 115 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:37,360 Speaker 1: pumped and transported from point A to point B. At 116 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 1: the same time, though, what you're actually doing is you're 117 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:42,680 Speaker 1: drowning the crop and you're actually drowning the soil. And 118 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:45,600 Speaker 1: what that does is it creates special bacteria that emits 119 00:06:45,640 --> 00:06:48,480 Speaker 1: things like methane and nitrous oxide. One of the ways 120 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:50,720 Speaker 1: that you can go ahead and mitigate some of these emissions, 121 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:54,000 Speaker 1: um is just by simply reducing your water usage, so 122 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 1: using water much more strategically on rice patties. So again 123 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,279 Speaker 1: you're reducing your emissions because you're not drowning out those 124 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 1: patties in the same way that you would, but you're 125 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:06,360 Speaker 1: also reducing your usage of water, right, So that saves 126 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 1: a farmer purely from a natural resource standpoint, quite a 127 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:11,960 Speaker 1: bit of money. So there's that one angle to it. 128 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 1: The other one, which we thought about a little bit 129 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 1: when we were trying to estimate the long term cost 130 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:21,840 Speaker 1: of carbon offsets from this space is the opportunity to 131 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 1: produce sustainable agriculture produced sustainable food and crops. So foods 132 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 1: with an organic label, for example, typically sell for quite 133 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 1: a large premium compared to traditional methods, so farmers as results, 134 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 1: they can go ahead and sell their food for more 135 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 1: and long term that can lead to a more revenue 136 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:42,520 Speaker 1: for a farmer. So there are definitely benefits to the farmer. 137 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:45,640 Speaker 1: Presumably there's innovation here and there are certain things that 138 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 1: they need to do in order to be able to 139 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:51,880 Speaker 1: qualify for these on registry ones. But actually before we 140 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:54,400 Speaker 1: even get into that the off registry ones. There's this 141 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:58,679 Speaker 1: whole verification process that we have discussed in the past 142 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 1: in other shows, and there's is kind of somewhat dubious 143 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 1: world of non certified voluntary offsets and whether or not 144 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:07,920 Speaker 1: we can take them seriously and whether or not we 145 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 1: can actually see those as additional Do you think that 146 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 1: there's a risk for the off registry listings to potentially 147 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:18,240 Speaker 1: be something that people could exploit and you know, don't 148 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 1: end up giving the benefit to the companies that are 149 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:24,000 Speaker 1: actually buying these offsets. It's a complicated topic, but I 150 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:27,480 Speaker 1: think it's absolutely something that any stakeholder in the sector 151 00:08:27,480 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 1: should be asking themselves. When you think about the role 152 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:33,839 Speaker 1: of a registry, what it should be doing is it 153 00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 1: should be that kind of first line of defense in 154 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:40,120 Speaker 1: verifying the quality of a project. They should have that 155 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:43,960 Speaker 1: methodology laid out on the registry to go ahead and 156 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:47,080 Speaker 1: work with an independent third party to verify that a 157 00:08:47,080 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 1: project actually is avoiding or removing emissions. But the issue is, 158 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:55,080 Speaker 1: and what we've seen even on Registry over the past 159 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:57,559 Speaker 1: few months and years, is that there's quite a few 160 00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 1: projects that do make that on registry cut that aren't 161 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 1: considered high quality. So what you're seeing is is almost 162 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:07,120 Speaker 1: this eroding level of faith in the registries and the 163 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 1: role that they're going to play in this market personally, 164 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:13,400 Speaker 1: and I think overall these registries will play an important role, 165 00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:16,319 Speaker 1: and they are working with other third party groups to 166 00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 1: further verify quality. So there's a group that we've definitely 167 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:23,680 Speaker 1: mentioned previously on this podcast data it's called the Integrity 168 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:27,199 Speaker 1: Council on Voluntary Carbon Markets. They're creating what are called 169 00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:29,800 Speaker 1: their Core Carbon Principles, and that is a set of 170 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:33,000 Speaker 1: thresholds that a project needs to meet to be considered 171 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:35,960 Speaker 1: high quality. And while that technically is separate from the 172 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:38,240 Speaker 1: work that the registries are doing, there was quite a 173 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 1: bit of collaboration between those two parties, and the registries 174 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:44,960 Speaker 1: are actually intimately involved when the work that the Integrity 175 00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:48,480 Speaker 1: Council is doing. So I do think that overall, moving forward, 176 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:52,080 Speaker 1: registries will play in very important part in this market. 177 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:55,600 Speaker 1: And so if you are operating off registry, you are 178 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:58,880 Speaker 1: kind of betting against the overall momentum of the market here. However, 179 00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:01,319 Speaker 1: I do go back to the at financial issue that 180 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 1: I talked about earlier. It's very expensive for a small 181 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 1: farmer to go ahead and pay the fee to list 182 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 1: a project on one of these registries. A lot of 183 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:14,240 Speaker 1: these farmers already operated at a loss, regardless of whether 184 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:18,160 Speaker 1: or not they're using sustainable practices or they're creating offsets. 185 00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 1: So if you remove that financial incentive or you give 186 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 1: this huge financial fee, that's going to remove any incentive 187 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 1: that a farmer would have to generate carbon offsets. And 188 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 1: a lot of this supply that we would see in 189 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:31,959 Speaker 1: the market over the coming decades that we're very bullish 190 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:34,360 Speaker 1: on at b an EF that's going to evaporate. Right. 191 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:37,840 Speaker 1: So what this does, this off registry market is it 192 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 1: does in many ways empower the small farmer and it 193 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 1: gives them that option to monetize or create new revenue 194 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:47,480 Speaker 1: streams by adopting more sustainable practices. So it's it's a 195 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:49,319 Speaker 1: tough one. I know it didn't give you the perfect 196 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:51,640 Speaker 1: answer here, but I do think that there are some 197 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:55,199 Speaker 1: major risks with operating off registry. However, I do think 198 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:57,720 Speaker 1: that there's some you know, really important positives to that 199 00:10:57,760 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 1: side of the market as well. So you just reference 200 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:02,400 Speaker 1: the farmers that are operating at a loss, and I 201 00:11:02,480 --> 00:11:05,640 Speaker 1: know this is a space that you know, because food 202 00:11:05,840 --> 00:11:09,400 Speaker 1: is so important to human beings, right, this is a 203 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:13,359 Speaker 1: space where policymakers have gotten very involved in who's producing 204 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 1: and who receives subsidies to in some circumstances not produced. 205 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:21,920 Speaker 1: Are there countries and policy makers and governments that are 206 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 1: looking at this offset space as a potential opportunity for them, 207 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 1: not just in terms of driving down the emissions for 208 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 1: maybe they're stated at zero goals as a country, but 209 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:36,400 Speaker 1: also as a way to potentially create other revenue streams 210 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:40,160 Speaker 1: for the farming sector. Absolutely will be found is that 211 00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 1: there's twenty seven countries now that have a specific carve 212 00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:47,640 Speaker 1: out for soil in their nationally determined contribution, so that's 213 00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:51,000 Speaker 1: their paras aligned climate goal. They are specifically going to 214 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:54,760 Speaker 1: be looking at abatement from soil carbon, so actually, you know, 215 00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:59,319 Speaker 1: strengthening soil and using soil to further store carbon. There 216 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:02,280 Speaker 1: are a lot of count trees that are prioritizing this. However, 217 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:04,320 Speaker 1: I think as you think about it in terms of 218 00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:07,200 Speaker 1: the offset market, there's definitely a way that you can 219 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:10,840 Speaker 1: think about this as potentially adversarial, right, and so what 220 00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:13,440 Speaker 1: I mean by that is in general, when you think 221 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:17,040 Speaker 1: about the total amount of abatement that can come from 222 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:22,439 Speaker 1: soil carbon and from sustainable agriculture practices in general. Theoretically, 223 00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:25,480 Speaker 1: each ton of that abatement should only be used for 224 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:28,839 Speaker 1: one thing. Right It's either used for abatement by a 225 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 1: country to reach their nationally determined contribution, or it's being 226 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:36,360 Speaker 1: exported as a carbon offset, either to a company within 227 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:40,320 Speaker 1: that same country or two companies elsewhere in the world. Right. So, 228 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 1: one of the challenges and one of the kind of 229 00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 1: exercises that we did when we did this long term outlook, 230 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:47,360 Speaker 1: as we said, well, let's look at the countries that 231 00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:51,400 Speaker 1: are also prioritizing soil carbon in their climate goals, and 232 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:53,679 Speaker 1: let's see if they met a small portion of their 233 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:57,960 Speaker 1: nationally determined contribution with soil carbon, how much of the 234 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:00,920 Speaker 1: offset supply in the market would that into. And so 235 00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 1: we took an eleven percent figure, which is kind of 236 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 1: goes back to what I mentioned earlier about how around 237 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:09,960 Speaker 1: eleven or a little bit more of global greenhouse gas 238 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 1: emissions come from agriculture, and we assume that eleven percent 239 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 1: of that country's emissions are met with abatement from agriculture, 240 00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:20,280 Speaker 1: and what that potentially does is it wipes carbon offsets 241 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:24,080 Speaker 1: supply from some major agriculture companies entirely off the map. 242 00:13:24,480 --> 00:13:26,120 Speaker 1: So what that means is that they no longer have 243 00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 1: any supply to export two companies elsewhere in the world, 244 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 1: and they're using all of that supply for their own 245 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:36,280 Speaker 1: domestic abatement goal. And this is something that I think policymakers, 246 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:41,240 Speaker 1: but also anyone that's buying carbon offsets, traders, suppliers of 247 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:43,800 Speaker 1: carbon offsets, they all need to start thinking about this. 248 00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:47,400 Speaker 1: And increasingly we're starting to see this from countries around 249 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:50,319 Speaker 1: the world. So India recently went ahead and they announced 250 00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:54,199 Speaker 1: that they will not export any carbon offsets until they 251 00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:57,960 Speaker 1: use the necessary abatement to meet their own climate targets. 252 00:13:58,480 --> 00:14:01,920 Speaker 1: If you start to get major other agriculture societies, so 253 00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 1: I'm thinking about countries like the United States, like China, 254 00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: like Brazil, if they start to make similar types of pledges, 255 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:11,600 Speaker 1: that's going to eat into carbon offsets supply significantly. So 256 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:13,960 Speaker 1: as a buyer of a carbon offset, a lot of 257 00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:16,400 Speaker 1: that potential supply that I would be tapping into in 258 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:18,640 Speaker 1: this market is going to evaporate, and I need to 259 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:22,000 Speaker 1: think of alternative routes to market as a result. That 260 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 1: is a really interesting perspective in making sure that we're 261 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:27,960 Speaker 1: not double counting. So you mentioned the countries that are 262 00:14:27,960 --> 00:14:31,400 Speaker 1: looking at this most kind of actively right now. How 263 00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 1: about companies. Is it the usual players in the agricultural 264 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:37,240 Speaker 1: supply chain or is it other companies looking at, you know, 265 00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:40,800 Speaker 1: creative ways to offset their business activities. I think there's 266 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 1: two points of the agriculture offset value chain that are 267 00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 1: worth highlighting here. And when we talk about any sector 268 00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:50,400 Speaker 1: in carbon offsets, whether it is energy generation or forestry 269 00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:53,880 Speaker 1: or cookstoves or agriculture, you do have kind of three 270 00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:56,320 Speaker 1: main players that are involved in the space or ford 271 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 1: depending on how you look at it. You have your developers, 272 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 1: so you have the companies that are creating the carbon 273 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:05,080 Speaker 1: offset projects. You have the registries that these projects are 274 00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:08,160 Speaker 1: getting listed on. Typically, then you have a broker, so 275 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 1: typically a company that is an independent third party consultant 276 00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 1: that will either just advise a buyer on how they 277 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:18,400 Speaker 1: should purchase offsets or they'll actually be the one buying 278 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 1: the offsets and then selling those onto a customer somewhere 279 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 1: along the value chain. So brokers play very important role here. 280 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:28,800 Speaker 1: And then of course you have the buyers. What makes 281 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 1: the agriculture offset value chain. Very unique is you also 282 00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:35,040 Speaker 1: have a number of what we call aggregators that operate 283 00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 1: in this market. So I mentioned before the opportunities in 284 00:15:38,040 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 1: this sector to empower the small farmer, to get them 285 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:45,120 Speaker 1: to start adopting sustainable practices and monetizing carbon offsets as 286 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:47,800 Speaker 1: a way to finance those activities. What you have in 287 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:50,280 Speaker 1: a lot of cases is companies playing the role of 288 00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:52,920 Speaker 1: what we call an aggregator. And typically these are large 289 00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:57,960 Speaker 1: agriculture companies like Kellogg for example, like Cargill, like General Mills. 290 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:01,720 Speaker 1: What they'll do is they'll work actually with small farmers, 291 00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:04,600 Speaker 1: and as the name would imply, they will aggregate a 292 00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:08,120 Speaker 1: bunch of carbon op set supply from those small farmers. 293 00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 1: They'll pay the fees, they'll handle all the technical aspects 294 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 1: of developing that project, and then they'll actually be the 295 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:16,840 Speaker 1: ones to take ownership of those offsets in exchange for 296 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:18,920 Speaker 1: a small fee of the farmer. So a lot of 297 00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 1: the risks that would come with developing this project, both 298 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:24,800 Speaker 1: physically and financially, the small farmer no longer has to 299 00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:28,320 Speaker 1: bear those The aggregator takes that type of responsibility. So 300 00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:31,400 Speaker 1: I think that's a really unique kind of corporate player 301 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:33,960 Speaker 1: in the offset value chain. That's important to note. But 302 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 1: then danta to your original question. In terms of buyers, 303 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:40,040 Speaker 1: it's a whole slew of buyers right, ranging from technology 304 00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:45,080 Speaker 1: companies like Microsoft, two banks like Barclays and JP Morgan, 305 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:48,960 Speaker 1: all the way to e commerce companies like Shopify for example. 306 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 1: There's a whole range of these companies that are getting 307 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:54,200 Speaker 1: very active in this space. And in general, we think 308 00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:57,960 Speaker 1: the value of an agriculture offset, and we can definitely 309 00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:00,400 Speaker 1: go into more detail on this mean is that it's 310 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 1: going to be very desirable as a supply source for 311 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 1: any type of corporate fire for ones that want to 312 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:09,200 Speaker 1: emphasize quality especially, they're all going to be looking towards 313 00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:12,679 Speaker 1: agriculture offsets as a source of supply now for a 314 00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:19,200 Speaker 1: very short break stay with us. So, of course there's 315 00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:21,520 Speaker 1: the quality of the offset that the companies are looking at, 316 00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:26,480 Speaker 1: but then there's price. So are these price competitive within 317 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:30,400 Speaker 1: the range of other voluntary carbon offsets. So in terms 318 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:33,639 Speaker 1: of how we actually went ahead and tried to estimate cost, 319 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:35,959 Speaker 1: I got into this a little bit earlier, but what 320 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:39,160 Speaker 1: we tried to think about is what is the premium 321 00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:42,400 Speaker 1: that a form would be selling, for example, an organic 322 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:45,320 Speaker 1: product for compared to a regular version of that product, 323 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:49,560 Speaker 1: and can of carbon offset finance the gap in producing 324 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:52,159 Speaker 1: that organic product because again, in a lot of cases, 325 00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:55,680 Speaker 1: it involves changing the way that you're producing these crops, 326 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:57,920 Speaker 1: and a lot of cases it involves an upfront cost. 327 00:17:58,240 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 1: So what we said is can you use an office 328 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:04,240 Speaker 1: to finance those activities and in turn sell you know, 329 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:07,120 Speaker 1: higher quality food at a higher price or a premium. 330 00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:09,320 Speaker 1: And in general, what we found as a result of 331 00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:12,120 Speaker 1: that is that you have a huge range in terms 332 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:15,040 Speaker 1: of costs of these carbon offsets depending on the market 333 00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:18,440 Speaker 1: that you operate in, but also depending on the type 334 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:20,760 Speaker 1: of crop that you're producing. And so what we found 335 00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:23,359 Speaker 1: is that there's a slew of projects that can sell 336 00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:27,640 Speaker 1: carbon offsets in the agriculture space for less than five 337 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:31,440 Speaker 1: dollars a ton. And there's some major agriculture countries that 338 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 1: fall into this category. That is inexpensive, is it not, 339 00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:40,480 Speaker 1: that's very inexpensive, that's too cheap. So, for example, there's 340 00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 1: countries like India and Canada and Kazakhstan that do have 341 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:47,840 Speaker 1: quite large agriculture industries that can sell a carbon ops 342 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:51,480 Speaker 1: that we estimate in from agriculture for less than five 343 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:55,399 Speaker 1: dollars ton. However, this is quite a steep supply curve 344 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 1: and there are a number of countries that would be 345 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 1: selling these agriculture opsets for a lot more expensive in 346 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:03,560 Speaker 1: the price. So we estimate that the US would be 347 00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:07,159 Speaker 1: selling it around twenty two a ton, Brazil let around 348 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,960 Speaker 1: thirty dollars a ton, all the way up to Australia 349 00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:12,879 Speaker 1: at around sixty dollars a ton. And again, what this 350 00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:15,800 Speaker 1: comes down to is what is the major crop that 351 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:18,880 Speaker 1: these countries are producing, and then what is the premium 352 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:20,760 Speaker 1: that it would take for them to sell or the 353 00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:23,560 Speaker 1: premium that they would charge to sell an organic version 354 00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 1: of that crop. Right, So, if you think about a 355 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:28,840 Speaker 1: market like Australia, for example, a lot of their agriculture 356 00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 1: industry is focused on beef production, so selling organic beef 357 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 1: often goes for much higher a premium compared to traditional beef. 358 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:38,920 Speaker 1: But the practices that need to go into producing that, 359 00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:43,760 Speaker 1: like feed additives, more sustainable livestock management, all that costs 360 00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 1: money upfront, right, and so the gap that you would need, 361 00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:48,840 Speaker 1: the price that you need to sell those offsets at 362 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:52,280 Speaker 1: to bridge the gap between those two practices is a 363 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:54,600 Speaker 1: lot higher. In general, I think this does kind of 364 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:58,159 Speaker 1: match what we've seen with other offset sectors. If you 365 00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 1: look at other nature based solution like reforestation and avoidant deforestation, 366 00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:06,919 Speaker 1: for example, we use a different methodology to estimate cost, 367 00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:09,280 Speaker 1: So in those cases we look primarily at what we 368 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,879 Speaker 1: call opportunity cost, So how would that land be used 369 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:16,280 Speaker 1: otherwise if it wasn't for protecting those trees? And what 370 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:19,240 Speaker 1: we found with that exercise and analysis is that you 371 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 1: also have a huge range in costs. So there's a 372 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:25,480 Speaker 1: lot of countries that can sell reforestation offsets for less 373 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,359 Speaker 1: than five dollars a ton, and then again there's countries 374 00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:31,560 Speaker 1: like Australia that are selling them at much higher prices 375 00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:33,800 Speaker 1: that over a hundred dollars a ton. So I think, 376 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,000 Speaker 1: in general, what we've seen with other sectors, and you know, 377 00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:38,240 Speaker 1: if anything, it's actually kind of a middle ground. You 378 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:41,280 Speaker 1: don't have the highs of other sectors and the lows. 379 00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:43,440 Speaker 1: You know, while they are similar, they might not be 380 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,040 Speaker 1: quite as pronounced. I mean, they seem to be cost 381 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:48,600 Speaker 1: competitive with the compliance markets like the EU E t 382 00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:52,200 Speaker 1: S here in Europe. Long term, I think yes, right now, 383 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:54,760 Speaker 1: and this is a you know, We've talked about this before. 384 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 1: This is an ongoing challenge with the voluntary market is 385 00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 1: that carbon offsets are are far too cheap right now. 386 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:01,480 Speaker 1: If you look at the e U e T s, 387 00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:03,760 Speaker 1: right the cost of carbon to the price of carbon 388 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:06,919 Speaker 1: is covering in some cases at some periods around hundred 389 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:08,800 Speaker 1: euros a ton, and then you compare that to the 390 00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:11,760 Speaker 1: voluntary space, it's far too cheap for an offset today. 391 00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:14,200 Speaker 1: And what that means is that it doesn't incentivize any 392 00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:16,639 Speaker 1: change within an actual company. So what that means is 393 00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:19,280 Speaker 1: that they'll use carbon offsets is a blanket or band 394 00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 1: aid solution to achieving a net zero carbon neutral goal. 395 00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:26,000 Speaker 1: They won't actually try to change their practices internally. And 396 00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:28,040 Speaker 1: so what you need to see is there's more of 397 00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:31,639 Speaker 1: those higher costs in order to incentivize change. Yeah, the 398 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,679 Speaker 1: higher costs than driving adoption of best available technologies. But 399 00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:39,199 Speaker 1: then here within the agriculture space, if I had to 400 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 1: really summarize it, what you're saying to me is what 401 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:44,719 Speaker 1: you're essentially doing when you're buying an agriculture focused offset 402 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:48,480 Speaker 1: is your funding innovation and it's about bridging that gap. 403 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:52,320 Speaker 1: As you were saying in the agricultural practices today, but 404 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:57,040 Speaker 1: essentially trying to drive down costs maybe for different innovations 405 00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:58,920 Speaker 1: in the long term. Now, I know some of these 406 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:01,359 Speaker 1: are not innovations. Some of these are just as you 407 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,080 Speaker 1: were mentioning organic farming. These are practices and there are 408 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:07,199 Speaker 1: associated rules with it. But what are some of the 409 00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:12,600 Speaker 1: other innovations that maybe will be less expensive and scalable 410 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:15,400 Speaker 1: in the longer run. That's a great question. You're absolutely 411 00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:18,399 Speaker 1: right when you think about an offset for some of 412 00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:22,800 Speaker 1: these more nasson sectors. An offset is your financing vehicle, right. 413 00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:25,600 Speaker 1: It's the same thing with something like direct air capture. 414 00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,600 Speaker 1: It's the same when it comes to nasson sectors like 415 00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:32,960 Speaker 1: blue carbon so help or allergae based sequestration. Your offset 416 00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:35,679 Speaker 1: is your way that you get financing, similar to a 417 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:39,440 Speaker 1: power purchase agreement for clean energy for example. So our 418 00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:42,160 Speaker 1: tech and innovation team has done some really good work 419 00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,879 Speaker 1: at looking specifically at innovation in the agriculture sector, and 420 00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:50,119 Speaker 1: what they've found specifically is that precision farming startups so 421 00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:53,480 Speaker 1: companies that use data to for example, improve a farm 422 00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:57,000 Speaker 1: efficiency but also crop yield. These companies have raised over 423 00:22:57,000 --> 00:23:00,359 Speaker 1: a billion dollars in terms of funding from BC private 424 00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 1: equity firms over the past couple of years. So they'll 425 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:07,080 Speaker 1: use things, for example, like sensors and software to better 426 00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:11,160 Speaker 1: measure carbon sequestration within soil. But then they'll also use 427 00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 1: that data to adopt again and improve the efficiency of 428 00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:17,760 Speaker 1: farmland to improve yields. So there's a lot of exciting 429 00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:21,000 Speaker 1: work happening there. For example, I briefly mentioned this before, 430 00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:24,960 Speaker 1: but there's also areas like feed additives. So a huge 431 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:29,080 Speaker 1: chunk of carbon emissions from the agriculture space today come 432 00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:32,119 Speaker 1: from a process that we call enteric fermentation. I'm not 433 00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:33,840 Speaker 1: going to go into the weeds of what that means, 434 00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:37,840 Speaker 1: but effectively, when a cow or various cattle digests the 435 00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,840 Speaker 1: food that they eat, it produces methane and an example 436 00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:44,320 Speaker 1: in the United States and terek fermentation makes up roughly 437 00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:50,600 Speaker 1: around of emissions that come from the agriculture space a lot. Yeah, 438 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,240 Speaker 1: it's a huge part of this. So live stock and 439 00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:56,119 Speaker 1: you know, even the manure that comes from livestock is 440 00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:58,119 Speaker 1: a huge part of the emissions here, and that's a 441 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:01,840 Speaker 1: huge opportunity of course for carbon offset creation. So there's 442 00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,680 Speaker 1: a lot of investment also going into areas like feed additives, 443 00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:09,200 Speaker 1: So can we feed cattle more sustainable foods that limits 444 00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:13,520 Speaker 1: the climate impact of that enteric fermentation process. So there's 445 00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:15,760 Speaker 1: a lot of really cool investment going into areas like 446 00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:19,080 Speaker 1: that as well. So yes, there's no slew of really 447 00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 1: cool and exciting technologies on the horizon. The carbon off 448 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:25,679 Speaker 1: sets can fund to further improve again crop yields, but 449 00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,920 Speaker 1: also emission reductions. So you talked about, I guess a 450 00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,680 Speaker 1: number of different applications. So we've been here with an 451 00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:35,520 Speaker 1: enteric fermentation Okay that that didn't quite roll off my tongue, 452 00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:38,720 Speaker 1: but essentially dealing with the methane that comes from cows. 453 00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:43,080 Speaker 1: You have talked about rice patties and what we do 454 00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:46,120 Speaker 1: about water use and then associated emissions with that. You've 455 00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:50,080 Speaker 1: talked about different fertilizer practices. If you had to kind 456 00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:53,760 Speaker 1: of quickly summarize them, what are the different areas that 457 00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:58,760 Speaker 1: these offsets are looking to target within agriculture. Well, we 458 00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:02,320 Speaker 1: did a long term outlook. We specifically looked at seven 459 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,840 Speaker 1: major areas in terms of abatement potential and maybe just 460 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,480 Speaker 1: kind of going down the list in terms of the 461 00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,960 Speaker 1: largest areas for abatement. All of this goes back to 462 00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:14,880 Speaker 1: the soil, right, So the soil is actually where most 463 00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:19,160 Speaker 1: of the carbon sequestration happens on a farm. So for example, 464 00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:22,600 Speaker 1: if you are tearing up crops, or you have livestock 465 00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:26,840 Speaker 1: walking through crop lands, or you have various physical climate 466 00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:31,560 Speaker 1: related impacts like storms or flooding, all of that disrupts 467 00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:33,760 Speaker 1: the structure of the soil. And what that means is 468 00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:37,600 Speaker 1: it not only releases carbon dioxide and other emissions, it 469 00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:41,199 Speaker 1: also weakens the future potential for that soil to go 470 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:44,640 Speaker 1: ahead and store carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions. So 471 00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:48,280 Speaker 1: a lot of the potential abatement goes into strengthening soil. 472 00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:50,439 Speaker 1: And so there's a couple of areas where you can 473 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,080 Speaker 1: think about this. One of them, for example, is planting 474 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:56,320 Speaker 1: trees and agriculture lands. So what that does is it 475 00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:59,520 Speaker 1: further builds up the amount of roots underground that can 476 00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:03,120 Speaker 1: store oil. But it also prevents runoff. So trees will 477 00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:06,639 Speaker 1: block a lot of the for example, fertilizer runoff, but 478 00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:08,920 Speaker 1: a lot of just natural water runoff when it comes 479 00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:12,080 Speaker 1: to flooding for example. There's also, like I mentioned before, 480 00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:16,480 Speaker 1: improved rice cultivation, so using practices that use less water 481 00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:20,000 Speaker 1: and don't actually drown the rice patties with water. There's 482 00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,680 Speaker 1: things like avoided grassland conversion. There's things like what'll we 483 00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:28,359 Speaker 1: call grazing lagoons, so that means planting certain crops on 484 00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:31,879 Speaker 1: the soil that have the sole intention of strengthening the 485 00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:35,160 Speaker 1: roots underground within the soil. And then there's also things 486 00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:38,160 Speaker 1: like nutrient management. All of these we think can play 487 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,920 Speaker 1: a huge role in terms of the abatement potential when 488 00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,000 Speaker 1: it comes to agriculture and as a whole. There's a 489 00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:46,359 Speaker 1: number of third party sources that estimate that in total, 490 00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,960 Speaker 1: these practices can lead to around between four to five 491 00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:55,919 Speaker 1: gigatons of potential carbon ambatement on an annual basis. So 492 00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:59,160 Speaker 1: there's a lot of really exciting opportunity here. So when 493 00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:02,520 Speaker 1: I'm thinking about the different offsets that could potentially be 494 00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,680 Speaker 1: taking place in the agriculture, I'm thinking of, Okay, there's 495 00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,720 Speaker 1: the emissions that maybe the methane emissions that maybe aren't 496 00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:12,439 Speaker 1: coming from the cows because of different additives given to 497 00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:15,400 Speaker 1: the cow to begin with. So, you know, put very 498 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:17,760 Speaker 1: similarly in the energy sector, which we know very well 499 00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:19,359 Speaker 1: at B and F. You know, it's kind of the 500 00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:23,640 Speaker 1: renewable energy versus the coal fired power station. But then 501 00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:25,399 Speaker 1: I think about a lot of the stuff I've been 502 00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:30,640 Speaker 1: looking at lately talks about potentially, you know, burying different 503 00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:34,879 Speaker 1: captured carbon underground, and then I also think about all 504 00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:37,000 Speaker 1: of the stored carbon. So even then, I was reading 505 00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:39,639 Speaker 1: something the other day about how big whales are and 506 00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,000 Speaker 1: actually how they fall to the bottom of the ocean 507 00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:46,320 Speaker 1: after they die and essentially become a form of carbon sequestration. 508 00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:50,840 Speaker 1: Are there technologies and are there ways were essentially the 509 00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:55,320 Speaker 1: carbon coming from some of these projects is actually keeping 510 00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:59,320 Speaker 1: it in the ground or is it then just coming 511 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,280 Speaker 1: out with plants that we then eat and going through 512 00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:04,840 Speaker 1: the cycle. I think you get at a really important 513 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:08,359 Speaker 1: point when you think about agriculture offsets, And like I 514 00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:11,560 Speaker 1: mentioned again, pretty much all of this comes down to 515 00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,800 Speaker 1: the strength of the soil, right and the sequestration of 516 00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:18,720 Speaker 1: carbon that occurs in the soil itself. So when you 517 00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:21,359 Speaker 1: you know, for example, when you have a growing season, 518 00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:23,720 Speaker 1: but then you're you know, taking all these crops out 519 00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,320 Speaker 1: of the ground, a lot of that carbon does get 520 00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:29,280 Speaker 1: released into the atmosphere. But what it also does is 521 00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:32,280 Speaker 1: it weakens the overall integrity of the soil underneath. It, 522 00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:35,520 Speaker 1: and it means that in future kind of crop yields, 523 00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,760 Speaker 1: it's not storing as much carbon. The exciting thing about 524 00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:40,600 Speaker 1: a lot of these kind of activities that I just 525 00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:44,680 Speaker 1: talked to you about is that they're classified as removal, right, 526 00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:48,040 Speaker 1: rather than avoidance like you mentioned before. So when you, 527 00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,800 Speaker 1: for example, when you build a clean energy project, that 528 00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 1: carbon is not being sucked out of the air and 529 00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:55,840 Speaker 1: storing it somewhere like you mentioned, Dana, you're just avoiding 530 00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:57,880 Speaker 1: emissions that might have come from a coal plant or 531 00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:01,400 Speaker 1: a gas plant. And that dicotto me between removal and 532 00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:05,200 Speaker 1: avoidance is very important. It might be the hottest topic 533 00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:08,440 Speaker 1: in the carbon off set market today. So there's a 534 00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:12,000 Speaker 1: lot of groups, like the Science Based Targets Initiative, for example, 535 00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:15,640 Speaker 1: that acknowledge the importance of removal. In order for us 536 00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:18,360 Speaker 1: to achieve our Paris goals, we can't just cut off 537 00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:21,080 Speaker 1: emissions at the level they are today, right. We need 538 00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:23,560 Speaker 1: to reduce our emissions back down to levels that we 539 00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:26,440 Speaker 1: saw at previous times in history. In order to do that, 540 00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:30,000 Speaker 1: we need removal. And so the perceived value of any 541 00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:33,080 Speaker 1: type of project that can offer carbon removal is much 542 00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:36,840 Speaker 1: higher overall than something that would avoid carbon emissions. So 543 00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:40,600 Speaker 1: things like reforestation, for example, you're planting new trees in 544 00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:43,480 Speaker 1: the ground, you're strengthening the soil, and you're leading to 545 00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:48,760 Speaker 1: further carbon sequestration. Conversely, something like avoided deforestation, you're just 546 00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:51,800 Speaker 1: protecting a tree and allowing it to continue storing or 547 00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:54,760 Speaker 1: sequestering carbon that it would have otherwise if it wasn't 548 00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:58,680 Speaker 1: under threat for example. So a lot of these agriculture activities, 549 00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:02,120 Speaker 1: the nature of them being classified as removal is really 550 00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,880 Speaker 1: important because that's going to give a fresh new injection 551 00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:08,440 Speaker 1: in the coming years of removal carbonop sets supply into 552 00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:12,480 Speaker 1: the market that's going to keep supply and demand in equilibrium. 553 00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:14,800 Speaker 1: So in our long term carbonops that outlook that came 554 00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:18,600 Speaker 1: out earlier this year, we did rene removal only scenario. 555 00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:22,080 Speaker 1: We said, what happens if companies can only buy carbon 556 00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:26,240 Speaker 1: offsets that remove or sequester carbon in order to achieve 557 00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:29,160 Speaker 1: their net zero targets for example, And what we found 558 00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:32,440 Speaker 1: is that the market becomes undersupplied a couple of years 559 00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:35,840 Speaker 1: from now, and so around the late the market becomes 560 00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:39,240 Speaker 1: undersupplied because there's so much demand coming from companies with 561 00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:42,000 Speaker 1: net zero goals and as a result, the price of 562 00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:45,240 Speaker 1: a carbon opos at skyrockets to what we estimate would 563 00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:48,280 Speaker 1: be over two dollars a ton, far too expensive for 564 00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:51,440 Speaker 1: pretty much any company to buy. If you add in 565 00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:56,000 Speaker 1: an additional nine million metric tons of supply, which is 566 00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:59,600 Speaker 1: what we forecast could come from the agriculture space into 567 00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,880 Speaker 1: this room mo will only scenario, it might not prevent 568 00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:05,840 Speaker 1: the market from becoming undersupplied, but what it does do 569 00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:08,560 Speaker 1: is it pushes that timeline back where you reach that 570 00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:12,040 Speaker 1: equilibrium point by maybe a decade for example. So that's 571 00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:14,479 Speaker 1: going to play a huge role in keeping costs at 572 00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:17,400 Speaker 1: a level that are affordable for companies to go ahead 573 00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:19,920 Speaker 1: and buy these offsets, but also to keep a liquid 574 00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,880 Speaker 1: and more dynamic market occurring. So it's a very important 575 00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:25,600 Speaker 1: question that you ask. I'm also super intrigued by the 576 00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:28,920 Speaker 1: whale carbon sequestration. I need to look into that a 577 00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:30,840 Speaker 1: little bit more. I've never heard of that. Yeah, it's 578 00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:33,880 Speaker 1: not quite agriculture, but within the nature based solutions. I 579 00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:37,800 Speaker 1: think the clickbait headline that brought me in was the 580 00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:41,600 Speaker 1: world needs more whales because they'll sequester carbon. So I 581 00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:43,680 Speaker 1: wonder if you can even group that into like blue 582 00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:48,960 Speaker 1: carbon technically maybe I'll have to I mean, I think 583 00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:53,320 Speaker 1: seaweed is probably a better parallel. Um Well, okay, So 584 00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:56,720 Speaker 1: then this brings me to I think another question that 585 00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:59,840 Speaker 1: it relates very much to the current times. So this 586 00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:04,000 Speaker 1: is a small part of the overall carbon offset space 587 00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:07,960 Speaker 1: right now, has the potential to not only scale better 588 00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:12,120 Speaker 1: agricultural from more sustainable agricultural practices in the longer term 589 00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:16,280 Speaker 1: and also become an increasingly large proportion of the offset space. 590 00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:20,400 Speaker 1: But we are also headed into our first period without 591 00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:25,440 Speaker 1: the Ukraine as a fairly large producer of grains for 592 00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:29,120 Speaker 1: several parts of the world, but particularly Africa, So we're 593 00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:32,800 Speaker 1: looking at, you know, some real crunch there, and I 594 00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:37,000 Speaker 1: am wondering if, in times of you know, strain in 595 00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:41,520 Speaker 1: the agricultural supply chain world, if there will be enough 596 00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:46,360 Speaker 1: supply for offsets, and if these practices will essentially be 597 00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:50,960 Speaker 1: thrown to the wayside for potentially quicker, faster, you know, 598 00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:55,320 Speaker 1: other ways of making money in this space. That's absolutely 599 00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:58,680 Speaker 1: a very big concern, and I think broadly the agriculture 600 00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:02,120 Speaker 1: offset and market is very much at the whim of 601 00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:06,640 Speaker 1: various macroeconomic factors. So in March of this year, the 602 00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:09,479 Speaker 1: u n f a O Food Price Index reached an 603 00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:13,000 Speaker 1: all time high, right, so food is in general very expensive. 604 00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:15,400 Speaker 1: But at the same time, as you mentioned Danta, you 605 00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:18,360 Speaker 1: lose a huge source of supply from the Russia and 606 00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:21,280 Speaker 1: Ukraine in terms of things like wheat. That means two things. 607 00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:25,280 Speaker 1: One of them means that countries domestically are going to 608 00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:28,080 Speaker 1: need to ramp up their own supply to make up 609 00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:30,320 Speaker 1: for the loss that comes from those countries like Russia 610 00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:32,360 Speaker 1: and Ukraine. So it's a lot of these countries are 611 00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:34,320 Speaker 1: going to need to start using more and more land 612 00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:37,840 Speaker 1: for agriculture practices, and in general that just hurts the 613 00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:42,160 Speaker 1: offset market. Right beyond agriculture offsets, when you think about, 614 00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:45,440 Speaker 1: for example, protecting trees at risk, a lot of that 615 00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:48,720 Speaker 1: land for forest today is going to be need to 616 00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:51,800 Speaker 1: be used for agriculture for example. At the same time, 617 00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:55,120 Speaker 1: if it becomes more expensive to produce food and there's 618 00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:58,320 Speaker 1: more of a immediate need to produce it, that's also 619 00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:00,800 Speaker 1: going to hurt the incentive for those all farmers and 620 00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:04,880 Speaker 1: even large farmers as well to go ahead and adopt 621 00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:08,239 Speaker 1: sustainable practices because again they're gonna be thinking much more 622 00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:12,640 Speaker 1: about the financials and climate and emission reductions for example, 623 00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:14,719 Speaker 1: will come to the back burner. So I think that 624 00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:18,279 Speaker 1: that's absolutely a huge concern here. But more broadly, right 625 00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:21,200 Speaker 1: as we think about climate disasters, as we think about 626 00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:24,560 Speaker 1: supply chain bottlenecks, both of these things very much real 627 00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:28,040 Speaker 1: concerns as well. Beyond the rush of Ukraine War, all 628 00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:32,080 Speaker 1: of these things could plain uncontrollable role in agriculture offset supply, 629 00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:34,960 Speaker 1: but I think more so in this space than pretty 630 00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:37,759 Speaker 1: much any other sector that you're looking at for carbon offsets, 631 00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,800 Speaker 1: So it's very important to keep tabs on. Okay, So, Kyle, 632 00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:44,319 Speaker 1: this one caught my eye and you recently wrote this 633 00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:48,279 Speaker 1: outlook on the agriculture offset space, and this is something 634 00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:51,000 Speaker 1: I don't think I've seen before. So can you just 635 00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:53,120 Speaker 1: discuss whether or not this is something we're going to 636 00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:56,320 Speaker 1: be able to continually check in on, and whether or 637 00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:59,000 Speaker 1: not if this space grows, you'll be keeping your finger 638 00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:00,959 Speaker 1: on the pulse for it or is it a one off. 639 00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,600 Speaker 1: We will absolutely be keeping our finger on the pulse 640 00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:06,400 Speaker 1: in this market, and the plan long term is to 641 00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:10,399 Speaker 1: integrate this into our long term carbon offsets outlook. So 642 00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:13,040 Speaker 1: the next iteration of that report will come out early 643 00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:16,040 Speaker 1: next year, most likely January. I mean in the previous version, 644 00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:18,880 Speaker 1: agriculture was not one of the supply sources that we 645 00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:22,640 Speaker 1: looked at when forecasting the price of carbon offsets. So 646 00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:26,160 Speaker 1: the plan is to integrate this long term offsets, this 647 00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:30,680 Speaker 1: agriculture outlook into our our broader long term offsets outlook. 648 00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:33,480 Speaker 1: But then, as you mentioned, continue to keep tabs on 649 00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:37,200 Speaker 1: some of these macroeconomic factors that we discussed, new innovative 650 00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:41,040 Speaker 1: ways of sustainable agriculture that could produce offsets, and just 651 00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:44,240 Speaker 1: in general, what does buyer appetite look like for offsets 652 00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:46,440 Speaker 1: like this. So a lot of future plans here and 653 00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:48,920 Speaker 1: a lot of exciting things on the horizon. Well, Kyle, 654 00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:52,320 Speaker 1: thank you for joining today. I certainly am interested in 655 00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:55,759 Speaker 1: all things that are technologies to scale and things that 656 00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:59,440 Speaker 1: we think will look dramatically different potentially and certainly in 657 00:35:59,480 --> 00:36:02,600 Speaker 1: twenty five. So thank you for coming and talking about 658 00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:04,600 Speaker 1: the space and laying it out for us today. Yeah, 659 00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:12,360 Speaker 1: thanks as always, Danna. Today's episode of Switched On was 660 00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:15,200 Speaker 1: edited by Rex Warner of gray Stoke Media. Bloomberg An 661 00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:17,280 Speaker 1: e f A is a service provided by Bloomberg Finance 662 00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,440 Speaker 1: LP and its affiliates. This recording does not constitute, nor 663 00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:23,719 Speaker 1: should it be construed as investment advice, investment recommendations, or 664 00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,840 Speaker 1: recommendation as to an investment or other strategy. Bloomberg an 665 00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:29,640 Speaker 1: F should not be considered as information sufficient upon which 666 00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:32,680 Speaker 1: to base an investment decision. Neither Bloomberg Finance LP nor 667 00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:35,680 Speaker 1: any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty as 668 00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:38,239 Speaker 1: to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in 669 00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:41,960 Speaker 1: this recording, and any liability of this recording is expressly disclaimed.