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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am

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Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android Auto with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: I Paulus pointing out earlier that we got some of

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Speaker 2: that economic data. Factory orders lower for April. You also

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Speaker 2: had Jolt job openings coming in better than expected. The

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Speaker 2: quits rate also slightly better, although we are seeing more

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Speaker 2: people getting fired or laid off, So I want to

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Speaker 2: take that into account. With Ira Jersey, Boomberg Intelligence Senior

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Speaker 2: US interest rate strategist, you're seeing a little bit of

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Speaker 2: selling on that front end. Hey Iira, what's your.

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Speaker 3: Take on these numbers?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I disagree with that take. Actually, the way that

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Speaker 5: I look at quits being down a little bit and

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Speaker 5: then layoffs being up a little bit is actually weak

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Speaker 5: for the economy because if you're if you're not thinking

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Speaker 5: you can find another job, that's the reason you don't.

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Speaker 5: You don't quit your job because you need to stay

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Speaker 5: where you are. And then obviously with layoffs up, that's

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Speaker 5: not particularly positive. Either, but it's it's all very incremental.

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Speaker 5: This isn't These aren't huge moves, and certainly job openings

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Speaker 5: being up a little bit in April, it's still.

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Speaker 3: Not back to February levels.

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Speaker 5: So again, like you know, we're talked about maybe you know,

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Speaker 5: lower highs here in terms of the downtrend. But but

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Speaker 5: some of the other data is also important to look at.

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Speaker 5: So you think about factory orders, those missed to the downside,

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Speaker 5: plus they were revised down as well the prior month.

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Speaker 5: So so overall this is you know a little bit

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Speaker 5: of a weak economy and you know the front end

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Speaker 5: selling off. So two year yields being a little bit

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Speaker 5: higher here is a little bit surprising because yes, the

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Speaker 5: data isn't terrible, but it's also not particularly good.

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Speaker 3: Kind of no matter how you slice it, IRA, it

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Speaker 3: seems like this fetter reserve is not really getting any

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Speaker 3: clear signals what to do next, which I guess for

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Speaker 3: a lot of folks means let's do nothing here. How

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Speaker 3: do you think they're going to interpret today data?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, well, well I think that they're going to not

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Speaker 5: be pleased with today's data, but at the same time

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Speaker 5: they're waiting for the next shoot to drop on inflation, right,

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Speaker 5: so next to so next week's inflation print is going

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Speaker 5: to be is going to be important as well as

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Speaker 5: this Friday's payrolls report. But you know that the likelihood

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Speaker 5: that the Federal Reserve does anything at the June meeting

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Speaker 5: is near zero because you're waiting to see what the

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Speaker 5: fallout is of all the tariffs. Will that increase prices?

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Speaker 5: Will how will that affect inflation and the inflation outlook.

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Speaker 5: So all of those things probably mean that they sit

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Speaker 5: on their hands. In fact, the minutes last week, according

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Speaker 5: to our natural language processing model, suggested that they were

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Speaker 5: as neutral as we want to be at the at.

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Speaker 3: The last meeting.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, he does this thing and it's really cool.

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Speaker 2: You put it in FED speak and then his model tells

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Speaker 2: them whether they're on the bullish or the bearish side

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Speaker 2: or I guess hawker dove side if we're putting it

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Speaker 2: in FED terms. So walk me through what you're expecting

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Speaker 2: then for Friday and how are positioned in the market,

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Speaker 2: because honestly, it's it's been pretty calm the last two days.

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Speaker 5: Well, so one of the one of the things that

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Speaker 5: we've noted, and I was talking to to our derivative

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Speaker 5: strategist Tander Sandu that just this morning, and he noted

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Speaker 5: that for the for long end, right, So we've had

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Speaker 5: this lot of angst with what's going on in the

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Speaker 5: thirty year debt and even then your debt because of

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Speaker 5: the fiscal situation and the fact that we're not really

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Speaker 5: removing paying down deficits very much. That that people are

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Speaker 5: long puts, right, So people have gotten out of the

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Speaker 5: money puts on long bonds. So so therefore it might

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Speaker 5: be more difficult for the long end to sell off

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Speaker 5: just because people are appropriately hedged. But I do think

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Speaker 5: that there's a lot of people who are, you know,

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Speaker 5: kind of waiting and seeing what the economic outcome is

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Speaker 5: going to be. But you know that being said, there

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Speaker 5: are people who are think are nibbling at the edges,

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Speaker 5: particularly when you get up to that five percent level

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Speaker 5: in thirty year bonds because liability driven investors, so insurance companies,

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Speaker 5: pension funds and a few others, they're really interested in

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Speaker 5: treashjuries at five percent. So I think that's another reason

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Speaker 5: why you keep on seeing a bit every time we

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Speaker 5: kind of get above that five percent level on the

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Speaker 5: long bond.

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Speaker 3: Long ago Lisa Bronwitz taught me to look at the

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Speaker 3: two tens spread there, and right now it's about fifty

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Speaker 3: basis points of steepening. That feels kind of normal to me.

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Speaker 3: Are kind of reasonable to me. How does it look

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Speaker 3: to you?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so, actually on a historical basis, is actually still

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Speaker 5: kind of low. Normally, when you look at the twos

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Speaker 5: tens curve, it's somewhere closer to one hundred basis points

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Speaker 5: on average. We do think there's some structural reasons why.

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Speaker 5: I'm not sure that we'll get up to where it

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Speaker 5: has during other cycles, but I do think that steepening

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Speaker 5: is still probably the trade. Whether it's bull steepening or

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Speaker 5: bear steepening, We're more likely to see steepening than we

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Speaker 5: are significant flattening. I think over the next six months,

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Speaker 5: you know the fiscal situation and will likely keep the

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Speaker 5: long end where it is, or maybe even actually have

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Speaker 5: that cheapened, so we yields go a little bit higher.

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Speaker 5: But as the economy slows, which is our base case scenario,

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Speaker 5: over the course of this year, it will become more

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Speaker 5: obvious that the FED is going to cut rates, and

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Speaker 5: cut rates, maybe more aggressively than what's currently priced, and

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Speaker 5: that will cause two year yields and the front end

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Speaker 5: of the yield curve to rally and yields go lower,

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Speaker 5: So that will steep in the yield curve. So we

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Speaker 5: think that over the course of this year, one way

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Speaker 5: or the other, whether it's buller Bear, we'll see more

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Speaker 5: steepening of the guild.

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Speaker 2: Curve, right, buller Bear, Like, do you get it on

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Speaker 2: the front end and that's why the curve goes up?

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Speaker 2: Or do you get it on the back end and

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Speaker 2: that's selling in the long end, and do we get

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Speaker 2: that higher?

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Speaker 3: Ira?

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Speaker 2: Thanks a lot, Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence TFUs interest rate strategist.

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Speaker 2: Joining us there.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Today, the OECD, which is international trade orization based in Paris,

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Speaker 3: they slashed its government economic forecast due to Donald Trump's

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Speaker 3: trade policies, citing the impact of tariffs and uncertainty on

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Speaker 3: confidence and investments. Maybe we're starting to really see some

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Speaker 3: impacts there globally, Zoe Shay Shaney WECE joins this here

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Speaker 3: Western Europe Economy team leader. She's based in Frankfurt. Zoe,

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Speaker 3: thanks so much for joining us here. Specifically, what is

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Speaker 3: the OECD calling out for the US and for the

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Speaker 3: global economy?

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Speaker 6: So overall, the OECD, as you just mentioned, just cut

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Speaker 6: its forecasts across the board and look, for the world,

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Speaker 6: they were predicting for this year three point one percent growth,

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Speaker 6: now it's just two point nine. Similarly for the US

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Speaker 6: more drastically, actually, for the US they're pre predicting two

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Speaker 6: point two and now they's just say one point six.

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Speaker 6: And they're also next year for the US just present

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Speaker 6: predict one point five percent growth. So overall, these are

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Speaker 6: quite dramatic numbers and throughout the whole report. The reason

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Speaker 6: they give for this is Trump tariffs and that this overall,

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Speaker 6: this combative trade policy that's coming from the US just

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Speaker 6: just hurting the world all over but the US here

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Speaker 6: in particular.

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Speaker 2: But so I wonder what their baseline is for tariffs.

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Speaker 2: Is it that ten percent? Are they taking into account

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Speaker 2: the tariffs that are currently in place? Like what's the

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Speaker 2: tariff scenario?

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Speaker 6: The tariff scenario is just general uncertainty. So they are

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Speaker 6: very aware that because of the constant change and of

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Speaker 6: Trump policy that he says one tariff one day and

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Speaker 6: then changes again the next and then goes back and

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Speaker 6: forth all the time, that they're just this inherent uncertainty

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Speaker 6: here that will just hurt trade overall. If you look

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Speaker 6: at the charts that's say, what trade would do if

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Speaker 6: you compared with what they thought in December. What they're

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Speaker 6: saying now, the picture is just incredibly dramatic, and they

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Speaker 6: say that as long as this is there, as long

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Speaker 6: as this uncertainty and this constant what's it called there

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Speaker 6: and back again kind of trade policy is going on,

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Speaker 6: that this is something that will just hurt theonomy, almost

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Speaker 6: irrespective of what the trade to a trade, what the

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Speaker 6: tariffs are actually like, then just as uncertainty damages so much.

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Speaker 3: Zoe. You're based in Frankfort, you know, based upon my

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Speaker 3: travel through EUROPEBA was considered Frankfurt to obviously be the

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Speaker 3: you know, the corporate hub of Germany and certainly much

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Speaker 3: of Europe here. What are you hearing from the German

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Speaker 3: executives that you speak to about what we're seeing over

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Speaker 3: the last several months.

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Speaker 6: So Germany is an interesting situation because we just had

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Speaker 6: elections here in February and there then a coalition was

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Speaker 6: formed quite quickly. And even before the coalition was formed,

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Speaker 6: because the fringe parties on the left on the right

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Speaker 6: one so much in parliament, they still in the lane duck,

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Speaker 6: Parliament still passed an incredibly generous fiscal package and also

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Speaker 6: this huge defense package. So the defence package, we know, it's

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Speaker 6: tricky how this will trickle through for the economy, but

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Speaker 6: the fiscal package is really massive, and so just generally

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Speaker 6: gave he gave executives here in Germany a whole boost

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Speaker 6: of confidence because Germany, as we know, red tape here

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Speaker 6: is it takes everything, takes agent's red tape is very prevalent.

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Speaker 6: And the lad during the entire shorts with the time

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Speaker 6: that Schorts was chancellor, the economy barely grew. There was

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Speaker 6: one quarter of contraction, one of growth. It just was

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Speaker 6: really very very sad, and so the fact that the

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Speaker 6: god that would be this huge fiscal package made everyone happy.

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Speaker 6: This was February.

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Speaker 3: Then we got the Liberation.

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Speaker 6: Day from the US and that has made them more

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Speaker 6: uncertain overall. Though given the uncertainty there where, this hurts investment,

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Speaker 6: they hurts or that, but the fact that there was

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Speaker 6: this huge fiscal commitment does make executives a lot more

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Speaker 6: confident than they were.

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Speaker 2: All right, Zoey, thanks a lot, really appreciated. Zoe snay

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Speaker 2: Wise Bloomberg Western European Economy team leader. She heads up

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Speaker 2: all the stuff over there in Frankfort. So she's in

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Speaker 2: Frankfort and Paul and I are here in a Maryland room.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 2: We are in Maryland right at the National Harbor at

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Speaker 2: the Gaylord Convention Center, as we have a lot of

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Speaker 2: financial advisors kind of coming together and discussing ideas and

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Speaker 2: how to manage asset and wealth management for three days

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Speaker 2: of learning experiences and networking solutions as well. Really been

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Speaker 2: a fascinating time so far. Keeping an eye on some

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Speaker 2: of the equity moves. One is Meta and Constellation. Constellation

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Speaker 2: Energy is up a little over half a percent, Metas

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Speaker 2: down by five tens to one percent, but a Constellation

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Speaker 2: Energy agree to sell power from an Illinois nuclear plant

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Speaker 2: to Meta Platforms. Is a twenty year contract starting in

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Speaker 2: mid twenty twenty seven. So Constellation's going to boost its

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Speaker 2: own investment into the Clinton plans output and maybe we'll

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Speaker 2: actually build another reactor at the site I did the

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Speaker 2: energy and go, let's at a take angle now with

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Speaker 2: man Deep saying Bloomberg intelligence in your technology analyst. Okay,

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Speaker 2: Man Deep, why does Meta need this?

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Speaker 7: Well, if they're raising their capex, which they did in

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Speaker 7: their last earnings, that capex is going towards, you know,

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Speaker 7: getting more AI chips, and you know, if you are

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Speaker 7: putting more AI chips, you need more power. So clearly

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Speaker 7: that is where the shortage is right now. And look,

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Speaker 7: if this is an AI supercycle that we all believe

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Speaker 7: it is going to be the case, and I think

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Speaker 7: you will see a power supercycle as well. And in

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Speaker 7: this case, all the hyperscalers will be looking to procure

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Speaker 7: power for their data centers. I mean, Meta serves over

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Speaker 7: three billion monthly active users across their family of apps. Now, granted,

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Speaker 7: those users right now are using more CPU compute, but

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Speaker 7: if you're rolling out AI tools and LLM searches. You

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Speaker 7: need more power for the AI chips, and I think

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Speaker 7: that's the intent here.

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Speaker 3: And Mandy, let's be honest here. I mean, all you

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Speaker 3: tech guys, you Silicon Valley guys, you always think you're

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Speaker 3: the smartest guys in the room. But let's be honest.

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Speaker 3: You guys don't know anything about the oil and gas

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Speaker 3: business and the nuclear business. Why is Meta? And I'm

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Speaker 3: guessing some others are going to kind of get more

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Speaker 3: deeply and strategically involved in the energy side of their business.

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Speaker 3: Is this a trend here?

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Speaker 7: I mean, just look at how far they have come

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Speaker 7: in terms of you know, infrastructure, Like a company like Google.

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Speaker 7: Not only are they designing their own data centers and

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Speaker 7: you know, creating their own chips, and now they are

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Speaker 7: you know, procuring power to they extend that. They want

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Speaker 7: to make sure that these AI chips, which can have

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Speaker 7: volatile power needs, are most optimized when it comes to

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Speaker 7: the efficiency of their infrastructure. And that's why these hyperscalar

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Speaker 7: companies really have got so many different aspects to their mode.

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Speaker 7: So it's not just about the search algorithm or in

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Speaker 7: the case of Meta, you know, their social media knowledge graph.

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Speaker 7: It is about the entirety of how they run their infrastructure,

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Speaker 7: and that is what is a long term mode, because

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Speaker 7: nobody else can operate at the scale at which these

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Speaker 7: hyperscalers are operating right now.

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Speaker 2: This is a fun fact in the article by Will

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Speaker 2: Raid from Bloomberg. So Meta first of all, has a

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Speaker 2: global energy head.

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Speaker 3: They have a global energy head. Okay, all right, so

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Speaker 3: they do.

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Speaker 2: They're really kind of ramping that out, and they were

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Speaker 2: looking at proposals the announcing December. They were looking at

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Speaker 2: proposals for as much as four gigawatts of new US

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Speaker 2: reactors and received fifty proposals from a range of companies,

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Speaker 2: including Constellation. To that point, I'm also wondering Mande the

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Speaker 2: significance of when they're building data centers and hyperscalers for

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Speaker 2: lllm's a large language model and that training versus and

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Speaker 2: they have to build stuff for inference which could be

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Speaker 2: smaller and more co located, so closer to the cities,

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Speaker 2: closer to our Paul and I have our phone. Does

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Speaker 2: that tend to look different than in terms of their

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Speaker 2: power needs?

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Speaker 7: Absolutely, And I think so far the market was concentrated

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Speaker 7: towards training. Every year you would have a ten times

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Speaker 7: larger model, which was more intelligent and it could do

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Speaker 7: more in terms of you know, answering your queries. But

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Speaker 7: with inferencing, you're right, I mean, the traffic patterns may

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Speaker 7: vary depending on the population, and so if you're serving

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Speaker 7: traffic in New York, it's very different from serving traffic

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Speaker 7: somewhere else that may not have the same concentration. And

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Speaker 7: with that, I think the challenge these companies have had

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Speaker 7: is the transmission lines can be upgraded. I mean you need,

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Speaker 7: you know, a pretty lengthy review process and the whole

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Speaker 7: thing may take years. So right now they are trying

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Speaker 7: to procure power wherever they can to offset the increased consumption,

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Speaker 7: and some of it may come at the expense of

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Speaker 7: power usage for some other purpose. Then you know why

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Speaker 7: data center is being prioritized here, and that is what

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Speaker 7: will be interesting because with inferencing, the power needs can

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Speaker 7: be variable. I mean, one trend we have seen is

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Speaker 7: with reasoning, you need more compute, so you know, the

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Speaker 7: model is thinking a lot more at the time you

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Speaker 7: are putting the prompt in, as opposed to training, where

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Speaker 7: all of the training is happening in background over a

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Speaker 7: period of a few weeks. So reasoning is per query,

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Speaker 7: and depending on how complex your query is, the model

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Speaker 7: is doing more work and that's why it may need

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Speaker 7: more power.

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Speaker 3: Another data point from this Bloomberg News article, Meta is

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Speaker 3: contracting for more power after the company's total electricity consumption

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Speaker 3: nearly tripled from twenty nineteen to twenty twenty three. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: I guess they need some more energy. Mandy position the

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Speaker 3: CAPEX numbers for Meta and for these other tech companies,

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Speaker 3: they need to take those CAPEX numbers up even more.

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Speaker 3: They're going to get deeper into the energy space.

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Speaker 7: I mean, all signs are the CAPEX numbers may continue

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Speaker 7: to go up, but right now, the biggest component of

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Speaker 7: the CAPEX is still the spend on the GPU chips. Obviously,

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Speaker 7: the power needs will take some portion of the CAPEX,

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Speaker 7: but it's still not as big as the chips. And

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Speaker 7: think of it this way. If you're getting you know,

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Speaker 7: twenty thousand in Nvidia chips, the cost of keeping them

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Speaker 7: idle or not being able to utilize them one hundred

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Speaker 7: percent is way higher than anything you are spending in

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Speaker 7: terms of you know, the energy deal that they had,

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Speaker 7: So clearly they are focusing on utilizing the chips that

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Speaker 7: they have already procured and that's why they are proactive

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Speaker 7: with you know, these power deals.

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Speaker 2: All right, Mandy, thanks a lot, really appreciate and man

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Speaker 2: deep saying joining us when we're intelligence senior Technology and.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

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Speaker 2: Happy Tuesday, everybody, Alex Stealer alongside Paul Sweeny IM You're

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Speaker 2: live from B and Y Insight twenty twenty five. We

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Speaker 2: are in National Harbor Meryl app National Harbor, Maryland at

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Speaker 2: the Gaylord Convention Center for this tremendous of men. Over

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Speaker 2: two thousand people are here. They talk about ideas, they

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Speaker 2: exchange thoughts about the markets and wealth management and private

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Speaker 2: wealth and alternatives.

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Speaker 3: It's a pretty exciting.

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Speaker 2: Dynamic place to be and joining us is one of

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Speaker 2: our favorites. Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist and head

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Speaker 2: of client portfolio Management at FREEDERA to Hermes.

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Speaker 3: Phil, always good to see you, Alex.

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Speaker 4: Thank you so much for having me back.

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Speaker 3: It's a thrill.

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Speaker 2: You've been coming to these for a long time, right,

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Speaker 2: So what's the different vibe here this year?

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Speaker 3: Is there?

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Speaker 2: One?

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Speaker 4: The vibe is very optimistic. Really, there is more of

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Speaker 4: an emphasis on technology today and AI than there ever

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Speaker 4: has been. But that probably it's not surprising given the

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Speaker 4: evolution of the business. I've always found these conferences to

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Speaker 4: be very cutting edge in terms of what are the

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Speaker 4: key issues that are going to be driving us in

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Speaker 4: the months and years forward, and so far I haven't

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Speaker 4: been disappointed here today.

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Speaker 3: Phil, I'm just looking at the S and P five hundred.

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Speaker 3: We've almost completely round trip peaked to trough back up

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Speaker 3: to peak here. What do you make of that? I mean,

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Speaker 3: that was a short period of time, you saw big

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Speaker 3: moves in the marketplace. What do you do looking forward

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Speaker 3: for the next six months? Oh more to go?

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Speaker 4: I mean remember our full year target for the S

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Speaker 4: and P this year sixty five hundred. We've got a

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Speaker 4: seven thousand next year. So yes, we've had a really

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Speaker 4: nice bounce off of that support level. I think we're

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Speaker 4: up about twenty three percent of the S and P

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Speaker 4: five hundred. But again not surprising to us because that

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Speaker 4: waterfall decline was largely a function of the uncertainty relating

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Speaker 4: to the tariff situation, and to some degree, how is

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Speaker 4: the tax legislation going to work. We're starting to get

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Speaker 4: some early resolution of exactly, at least directionally, how that's

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Speaker 4: going to play out, and the market at that point

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Speaker 4: should begin to think about, Okay, what are the underlying fundamentals,

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Speaker 4: not the chaos associated with what caused the decline back

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Speaker 4: in early April.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's pretend that we can put aside the kaas.

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Speaker 2: Then for a second, does that mean that tech continues

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Speaker 2: to lead or do we get the broadening out?

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Speaker 3: Well, yes, they can both be true.

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Speaker 4: So so our feeling going into the collapse was that

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Speaker 4: Bill Rally did need to broaden out. We were de

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Speaker 4: emphasizing sort of the technology and the Mag seven names

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Speaker 4: because we felt that they were ahead of themselves. So

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Speaker 4: the area of focus for us was the forgotten four

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Speaker 4: ninety three, the value names, the international names, the smaller

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Speaker 4: cap names. But as the market you came down twenty

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Speaker 4: one percent, the Max seven names were down forty five

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Speaker 4: five percent. So as we started to put additional money

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Speaker 4: to work, we increased our equity allocation to a five

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Speaker 4: percent overweight near the bottom that incremental ad for US

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Speaker 4: was in domestic large cap growth. So we recognized that

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Speaker 4: forty five percent down was actually an attractive point to

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Speaker 4: start to put some money back to work.

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Speaker 3: You know, with a little bit of hindsight, As we

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Speaker 3: think back to that sell off in April, a couple

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Speaker 3: of things kind of come to mind. Number One, we

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Speaker 3: had people during the sell off telling us, you know,

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Speaker 3: people aren't panicking out there. That's number one. And number two,

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Speaker 3: retail is buying. What is that? What are those two

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Speaker 3: things to kind of tell you that kind of I

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Speaker 3: guess in hindsight I was said, boy, I should have

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Speaker 3: been buying there because the retail aganis are buying. I

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Speaker 3: don't think I really saw one panic selling.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, we've done some work looking at the

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Speaker 4: performance of the market literally over.

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Speaker 3: The last half a century, okay.

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Speaker 4: And over that period of time there have been ten

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Speaker 4: massive declines twenty percent or more twenty thirty, forty to fifty,

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Speaker 4: and in every instance that was a great buying opernity

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Speaker 4: that over the long cycle, the ingenuity and hard work

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Speaker 4: of the American people stocks up into the right. So

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Speaker 4: if you look at those big declines down and think

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Speaker 4: you understand what the underlying fundamentals are that to us

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Speaker 4: was a reasonably and an attractive buying point.

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Speaker 2: So how do you look in I will talk about

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Speaker 2: this before, but how do you look at it the

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Speaker 2: next six to eight months?

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Speaker 3: As you manage the.

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Speaker 2: Uncertainty, you just be really strategic. You have your buying

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Speaker 2: list and you think of it that way and you

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Speaker 2: kind of ignore the actual headlines.

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Speaker 4: Well, we take a longer term perspective that we're looking

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Speaker 4: at six to twelve to eighteen to twenty four months,

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Speaker 4: and as we look at that perspective, the noise and

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Speaker 4: the nonsense and the chaos associated with the day to

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Speaker 4: day we sort of screen out.

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Speaker 2: But some of those things could be structural.

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Speaker 4: They could be and if they were structural, we would

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Speaker 4: change our view. But we've got a view that for example,

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Speaker 4: our GDP forecast for next year is two point seven percent.

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Speaker 4: All right, that doesn't sound like much, but consensus has

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Speaker 4: one three. The highest estimate on the street other than

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Speaker 4: us is two percent. So we think that things are

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Speaker 4: going to work out over the course of the next

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Speaker 4: eighteen months, and if we're right, we want to be

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Speaker 4: buyers of stocks in that environment.

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Speaker 3: Do we still have earnings risk. I know earning testaments

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Speaker 3: have come down, but do we still have earnings risk?

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Speaker 3: Do you take out there because we still have tariffs

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Speaker 3: that are going to be gradually rolling into the economy,

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Speaker 3: there's always earnings risk.

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Speaker 4: But we just got through the first quarter and revenues

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00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 4: ro up about five percent, earnings roup about twelve percent.

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Speaker 4: Those numbers are better than expected. Uh, you know, we've

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Speaker 4: sort of adjusted our full year numbers based upon the

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Speaker 4: implementation of tariffs, but that trajectory is still positive.

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Speaker 3: All right, Phil, Really great to chat with you. Good

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Speaker 3: to see you in person.

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Speaker 2: It's so weird but you just not ask me how

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00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:45,199
Speaker 2: fill Orlando was chief equity.

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00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 3: Thank you very much for having me on.

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Speaker 2: I bet a chief ecuty market strategist and head of

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00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:53,240
Speaker 2: client portfolio Management at Betra Hermes, joining us on the market.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, of Spotify,

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