WEBVTT - Iran Peace Deal Push Intensifies; Ebola Outpaces Control in Congo 0:00:00.040 --> 0:00:10.160 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to the Bloomberg 0:00:10.240 --> 0:00:15.920 This Weekend Podcast with David Gura, Christina Raffini, and Elisa Matteo. 0:00:17.680 --> 0:00:20.560 Thanks for joining us for today's selection of conversations from 0:00:20.600 --> 0:00:20.959 the show. 0:00:21.200 --> 0:00:23.479 You can listen to our favorite discussions right here on 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:25.800 the podcast, but also make sure to join us live 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:28.960 every Saturday and Sunday morning starting at seven am Easter. 0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:32.760 We're on Bloomberg Television, Radio and the Bloomberg Business App, 0:00:33.040 --> 0:00:38.240 bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics, lifestyle, 0:00:38.360 --> 0:00:39.120 and culture. 0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:40.680 Well. 0:00:40.760 --> 0:00:43.800 President Trump's staying in Washington this weekend after scrapping a 0:00:43.840 --> 0:00:46.760 trip to Bedminster, New Jersey. According to The New York Times, 0:00:46.800 --> 0:00:49.920 he has been reviewing military options for potentially resuming the 0:00:49.960 --> 0:00:51.680 bombing campaign against Iran. 0:00:51.880 --> 0:00:54.320 That's right, but according to the Qataris, the President also 0:00:54.400 --> 0:00:56.280 just had a phone call with the Amir of that 0:00:56.440 --> 0:00:59.560 nation where they discuss de escalation of tensions in the region, 0:00:59.600 --> 0:01:02.200 as well as Maritimes safety in the Strait of Hormuz. 0:01:02.480 --> 0:01:05.759 Back with us, as Bloomberg's White House correspondent Kate Sullivan. Kate, 0:01:05.840 --> 0:01:08.840 as we're hearing all these Gulf allies and some European 0:01:08.840 --> 0:01:11.680 allies as well are trying to dissuade Trump from restarting 0:01:11.880 --> 0:01:15.040 this conflict. When it comes to who's talking to him 0:01:15.080 --> 0:01:17.560 in the White House and who's helping him make these decisions, 0:01:17.959 --> 0:01:20.840 He's down one key player, and that's d and I. 0:01:20.920 --> 0:01:25.199 Telsei Gabbard, who resigned yesterday setting health concerns with her husband, 0:01:25.600 --> 0:01:27.720 talked to us a little bit about her role and 0:01:27.760 --> 0:01:31.160 then just the national security apparatus around the president and 0:01:31.200 --> 0:01:33.560 who was advising him as he goes into all these 0:01:33.600 --> 0:01:34.679 foreign policy issues. 0:01:36.440 --> 0:01:40.160 Yeah, that's right. So it was surprising news yesterday. Tulsi 0:01:40.200 --> 0:01:43.560 Gabbard said that she had presented her letter of resignation 0:01:43.680 --> 0:01:47.720 to the president that her husband is battling cancer and 0:01:48.280 --> 0:01:51.360 she wanted to be by his side. I will say 0:01:51.400 --> 0:01:56.040 that Gabbard has been a really interesting figure in the administration, 0:01:56.160 --> 0:01:59.840 is particularly amid the war. She's been very vocal about 0:02:00.080 --> 0:02:05.600 her anti interventionist stance. She's been you know, when she 0:02:05.840 --> 0:02:08.440 was on the campaign trail with Trump, he was talking 0:02:08.520 --> 0:02:11.920 a lot about no new wars and and no new 0:02:11.960 --> 0:02:15.400 foreign conflict. So she is on the record with with 0:02:15.600 --> 0:02:20.120 essentially uh saying that she is not for starting new 0:02:20.160 --> 0:02:23.520 wars abroad, and she has not been a key figure 0:02:24.040 --> 0:02:26.440 in the room. You know, we have reported this, others 0:02:26.480 --> 0:02:29.320 have reported this in recent weeks. When it comes to 0:02:29.560 --> 0:02:32.880 Venezuela and Iran and some of the discussions about Cuba, 0:02:32.919 --> 0:02:35.359 she has been of course, she she had a top 0:02:35.440 --> 0:02:38.360 role in the administration, but the reporting says that she 0:02:38.680 --> 0:02:42.520 was not really a key figure in these discussions. Trump 0:02:42.560 --> 0:02:47.400 has a very small national security team around him. It's 0:02:47.400 --> 0:02:50.760 a it's a very small group of individuals that includes 0:02:50.800 --> 0:02:53.400 Mark or Rubio. Jade Vance is also part of that, 0:02:53.520 --> 0:02:57.320 Pete Haig Seth. There are other top advisors. But but 0:02:57.400 --> 0:03:00.240 really when it comes to who he's listening to and 0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:03.200 talking about these things with the smaller group than you'd expect. 0:03:03.680 --> 0:03:06.440 Yes, I will note that in our reporting an indication 0:03:06.560 --> 0:03:09.000 some people refer to D and I as do not invite. 0:03:09.240 --> 0:03:11.560 That was a nickname or position and earned over the 0:03:11.560 --> 0:03:13.239 course of this second term. 0:03:13.560 --> 0:03:15.640 Kate, you mentioned Cuba, and I'd love to go there 0:03:15.680 --> 0:03:15.920 as well. 0:03:16.000 --> 0:03:17.600 Yes, there's a lot of talk about what might happen 0:03:17.639 --> 0:03:19.959 next with with Ron, how long this ceasefire might last, 0:03:20.000 --> 0:03:23.320 will it be continued perhaps in perpetuity. At the same time, 0:03:23.320 --> 0:03:25.040 we have seen over the course of this last week 0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:28.000 a lot of pressure ratcheting up on Cuba as well. 0:03:28.040 --> 0:03:29.880 Talk a bit about that and what. 0:03:29.919 --> 0:03:32.120 The latest thinking is among members of this administration and 0:03:32.160 --> 0:03:34.000 observers about where all of this might be headed. 0:03:35.520 --> 0:03:38.720 You know, it was interesting because we've heard Trump really 0:03:39.000 --> 0:03:42.240 escalating up until this week. We really heard him escalating 0:03:42.240 --> 0:03:44.840 his rhetoric on Cuba and saying a lot of things 0:03:44.880 --> 0:03:47.280 along the lines of, you know, after Ron, we're going 0:03:47.320 --> 0:03:49.440 to turn to Cuba. You know, I might be the 0:03:49.760 --> 0:03:52.760 first president to really do something there, really kind of 0:03:52.760 --> 0:03:56.320 heavily hinting at potential military action in Cuba. I thought 0:03:56.360 --> 0:03:58.960 it was interesting when he was speaking to reporters on Wednesday, 0:03:59.000 --> 0:04:04.080 I believe he seemed to downplay the need for military 0:04:04.120 --> 0:04:07.800 action to further ratchet up pressure on Cuba. And this 0:04:07.880 --> 0:04:10.840 is coming, of course, after the indictment of ral Castro, 0:04:10.920 --> 0:04:14.120 the former president of Cuba, which in of itself was 0:04:14.200 --> 0:04:16.880 a huge escalation. You know, the United States has charged 0:04:16.960 --> 0:04:20.760 him with murder and so he's but it was interesting 0:04:20.880 --> 0:04:24.080 after that, you know, which a lot of people saw 0:04:24.200 --> 0:04:28.040 as sort of perhaps a prelude to US military action 0:04:28.080 --> 0:04:30.920 in Cuba. The President at least publicly is now saying 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:34.800 that there is not a need to UH to further 0:04:34.920 --> 0:04:37.440 ratchet up pressure pressure there. And he was asked about 0:04:37.440 --> 0:04:39.680 military action in Cuba, and he seemed to really downplay 0:04:39.720 --> 0:04:42.720 the need for that. So it's it's unclear what the 0:04:42.760 --> 0:04:45.039 next steps are on Cuba, but of course we're we're 0:04:45.040 --> 0:04:47.560 closely watching any and all developments there. 0:04:47.640 --> 0:04:48.640 Strategic ambiguity. 0:04:48.720 --> 0:04:51.040 Christiana, Yeah, that was surprising to me, given the indictment 0:04:51.040 --> 0:04:53.760 and then the president's rearrange travel plans. We were bracing 0:04:53.800 --> 0:04:56.279 for another long night in a busy morning, but so 0:04:56.400 --> 0:04:59.200 far the center seems to be holding. Before we let 0:04:59.200 --> 0:05:01.320 you go, I do want to ask you just briefly 0:05:01.320 --> 0:05:03.240 about Ebola, which is the other big story we've been 0:05:03.240 --> 0:05:05.320 talking about this morning. I actually just asked our control 0:05:05.360 --> 0:05:08.800 room because I didn't remember the President talking much about this. 0:05:09.240 --> 0:05:10.920 He was asked about it a couple of days ago 0:05:11.160 --> 0:05:12.960 if he was concerned about a bola and said, I'm 0:05:12.960 --> 0:05:15.440 concerned about everything, but certainly am I think you know 0:05:15.520 --> 0:05:17.880 it's been confined right now to Africa, but it's something 0:05:17.880 --> 0:05:21.039 that had a breakout, and then he turned to other 0:05:21.080 --> 0:05:24.159 individuals to speak more about it. Has there been a 0:05:24.200 --> 0:05:26.520 lot of messaging from the White House on this. We've 0:05:26.560 --> 0:05:29.080 heard from the State Department, We've heard a bit from 0:05:29.160 --> 0:05:32.080 Health Apparatus's CDC about how they're trying to prevent the 0:05:32.080 --> 0:05:34.520 outbreak from coming here. But is this an issue that's 0:05:34.560 --> 0:05:37.239 even really on the President's radar at this point. 0:05:37.440 --> 0:05:40.960 That's a great question. We've not heard a lot of messaging, 0:05:41.320 --> 0:05:44.040 Bonnie Bola specifically. The President has been asked about it 0:05:44.080 --> 0:05:46.559 a couple of times, and like you mentioned, he said, 0:05:46.960 --> 0:05:49.200 you know, sort of he'll make these statements like, well, 0:05:49.480 --> 0:05:53.159 you know, of course, I'm concerned about everything. And I 0:05:53.160 --> 0:05:55.880 think it's also important to note that, you know, health 0:05:56.200 --> 0:05:59.440 officials and experts are saying that these really these cuts 0:05:59.480 --> 0:06:03.000 to us and the United States pulling out of the 0:06:03.120 --> 0:06:07.760 WHO but that has really negatively impacted the response to 0:06:07.800 --> 0:06:11.000 the to ebola on the ground. But so far, we've 0:06:11.000 --> 0:06:14.680 not heard a lot from this White House about what 0:06:14.760 --> 0:06:18.600 the plan is and how concerned they are, and so 0:06:18.800 --> 0:06:21.279 it's I think it'll be something that we just continue 0:06:21.279 --> 0:06:22.880 to watch in the coming weeks, But we've not heard 0:06:22.880 --> 0:06:24.440 a lot from the President on this so far. 0:06:25.120 --> 0:06:26.400 All Right, Kate. 0:06:26.320 --> 0:06:27.160 Sulvin, thank you very much. 0:06:27.200 --> 0:06:29.320 Appreciate you joining us here on this Saturday, and we're 0:06:29.360 --> 0:06:31.360 going to keep talking about foreign policy here as pres 0:06:31.400 --> 0:06:33.760 and Trump considers what's next with the war in Iran. 0:06:34.160 --> 0:06:36.600 Former US officials like General David Petraeus, who served as 0:06:36.600 --> 0:06:39.120 the director of the CIA, of course, was the commander 0:06:39.160 --> 0:06:42.040 of sencom our meeting with world leaders to discuss all 0:06:42.080 --> 0:06:43.800 of the global conflicts we've been talking about over the 0:06:43.800 --> 0:06:45.719 course of the morning. He has been to Kiev himself 0:06:46.000 --> 0:06:49.320 ten times since Russia invaded Ukraine, and last week he 0:06:49.360 --> 0:06:51.559 was in the Middle East. On the heels of that trip, 0:06:51.600 --> 0:06:53.520 I sat down with the General and I asked him 0:06:53.600 --> 0:06:57.200 how he defines victory in Iran. Thank you very much 0:06:57.240 --> 0:06:57.800 for taking the time. 0:06:57.880 --> 0:07:00.160 Appreciate it. Good to be with you. 0:06:59.240 --> 0:07:02.920 D you define victory in Iran now a couple months 0:07:02.960 --> 0:07:04.200 into this conflict. 0:07:04.040 --> 0:07:08.359 Well, I think actually getting an agreement that would restore 0:07:08.400 --> 0:07:10.840 freedom navigation of the Gulf in the Strait of Remus 0:07:11.280 --> 0:07:14.320 without Iran laying claim to it and being able to 0:07:14.520 --> 0:07:18.080 tax people going through it and ships. I think that's 0:07:18.160 --> 0:07:24.240 probably the most important goal at this moment. But of 0:07:24.280 --> 0:07:27.680 course that doesn't address the other core issues that we 0:07:27.760 --> 0:07:32.480 have with Iran, such as it's nuclear stockpile of almost 0:07:32.520 --> 0:07:35.480 one thousand pounds of sixty percent rich uranium that's just 0:07:35.560 --> 0:07:39.840 one level below weapons grade, the right to enrich in 0:07:39.880 --> 0:07:43.840 the future, their support to proxies in the region that 0:07:43.880 --> 0:07:48.560 are pretty murderous, that Hamas Hasballah Shia militia and Iraq 0:07:48.920 --> 0:07:53.680 Huthi's and Yemen, and then the missile programs and the 0:07:53.720 --> 0:07:56.040 rest of this, And I think it's a pretty limited 0:07:56.480 --> 0:08:00.000 amount of these other concerns that may ever get addressed, 0:08:00.720 --> 0:08:03.120 But clearly there has to be an agreement to get 0:08:03.120 --> 0:08:07.080 this straight reopened and to restore freedom of navigation without 0:08:07.480 --> 0:08:11.120 there might be some arrangement where perhaps there's some modest 0:08:11.160 --> 0:08:15.080 fee charged that might go in part to Iran Oman 0:08:15.760 --> 0:08:19.560 who knows, and navigation aids or something like this, but 0:08:19.600 --> 0:08:21.840 that I think is the imperative at this moment in time, 0:08:21.880 --> 0:08:24.800 and I'm not sure that Iran is going to be 0:08:24.840 --> 0:08:27.640 willing to do that right now. They are insistent that 0:08:27.680 --> 0:08:33.040 they are given control of the golf the Straight and 0:08:33.080 --> 0:08:35.520 that they are able to charge tolls for it. That's 0:08:35.600 --> 0:08:37.760 just I think unacceptable, and it may be that we 0:08:37.800 --> 0:08:40.400 have to go back to war to show them that 0:08:40.400 --> 0:08:41.600 we're pretty serious about this. 0:08:41.960 --> 0:08:43.760 You spent a lot of time in the region. You 0:08:43.840 --> 0:08:47.680 were in a rock recently. What have you learned traveling 0:08:47.720 --> 0:08:50.440 through those countries in recent weeks about how they see 0:08:50.440 --> 0:08:51.520 this conflict unfolding. 0:08:52.920 --> 0:08:53.680 Well, it varies. 0:08:53.720 --> 0:08:55.320 I mean someone is asking me, what do the Gulf 0:08:55.360 --> 0:08:58.600 States think, Well, the Golf State, No, it's not aggreate. 0:08:58.720 --> 0:09:00.600 You can't aggregate. You have to look at each one. 0:09:00.960 --> 0:09:04.800 Emiratis are particular outraged. Then they've been the biggest target 0:09:04.840 --> 0:09:07.800 of the drones and so forth by Iran, in part 0:09:07.920 --> 0:09:11.880 perhaps because they're supportive of the US and have the 0:09:11.920 --> 0:09:15.440 Abraham Accords with Israel. Others have not been on the 0:09:15.480 --> 0:09:18.320 receiving as much, but Cutters lost seventeen percent of their 0:09:19.120 --> 0:09:24.560 LNG production capacity for three to five years. The Saudis 0:09:24.600 --> 0:09:27.280 are actually trying to broker a bit. I actually met 0:09:27.280 --> 0:09:29.160 with the Crown Prince when I was there last week. 0:09:30.080 --> 0:09:33.240 They're working through the Pakistanis, with whom they have a 0:09:33.320 --> 0:09:34.000 very close relation. 0:09:34.080 --> 0:09:36.640 I think it was eight thousand Pakistani troops. 0:09:36.320 --> 0:09:39.319 Just deployed to Saudi rab to help with Kenner drone 0:09:39.320 --> 0:09:41.959 in a variety of other security tasks. So it really 0:09:41.960 --> 0:09:45.679 does depend on the country and so forth. They all 0:09:45.720 --> 0:09:50.040 want though, to see straighter from Moose reopened and to 0:09:50.240 --> 0:09:52.680 ensure that there's not going to be a toll or 0:09:52.720 --> 0:09:56.480 a control by Iran exerted on that that's the be 0:09:56.679 --> 0:09:58.840 all and end all for all of them. But in 0:09:58.880 --> 0:10:06.719 the wake of it, to see enormous investment in hardening, resilience, redundancy, 0:10:07.280 --> 0:10:12.040 alternatives to the use of the strait routes out for 0:10:12.360 --> 0:10:16.880 crude oil and natural gas other than a ship that 0:10:16.960 --> 0:10:18.360 goes through the straight or promoves. 0:10:18.640 --> 0:10:20.280 And this is very, very profound. 0:10:20.320 --> 0:10:24.160 This is a very big, very big implication, especially if 0:10:24.160 --> 0:10:26.800 you're a partner and investment firm like Akar. 0:10:26.840 --> 0:10:29.320 So the investment becomes more inward. I imagine for a 0:10:29.320 --> 0:10:31.240 lot of these nations in the past they might have 0:10:31.400 --> 0:10:34.520 used their softigre wealth funds to invest in US companies tech. 0:10:34.520 --> 0:10:36.240 I've always done a lot inward, but I think it's 0:10:36.240 --> 0:10:38.079 going to be there's going to be a period of time, 0:10:38.280 --> 0:10:41.240 a number of years where the focus really is on 0:10:41.320 --> 0:10:45.079 what they need to do to reduce their vulnerability in 0:10:45.120 --> 0:10:47.480 the future, both to attack. So there's going to be 0:10:47.480 --> 0:10:51.800 a lot of implications for the military organizational changes, what 0:10:51.840 --> 0:10:53.640 they buy, how they buy it, and all the rest 0:10:53.640 --> 0:10:56.560 of this, how they train and operate. So there's very 0:10:56.679 --> 0:10:59.600 very profound changes out there as a result of this, 0:11:00.280 --> 0:11:00.679 which we. 0:11:00.679 --> 0:11:01.520 Haven't really seen. 0:11:01.600 --> 0:11:03.439 I don't think it has been much more steady state in 0:11:03.480 --> 0:11:05.200 a variety of ways for a number of years. 0:11:05.520 --> 0:11:09.880 Are these Skulf nations reevaluating their relationship with the US. 0:11:09.840 --> 0:11:10.440 In light of this? 0:11:10.520 --> 0:11:12.640 Have they felt unprotected or unbacked up? 0:11:13.200 --> 0:11:14.080 I'm sure they have. 0:11:15.880 --> 0:11:19.320 You know, these states tried to stay out of this, 0:11:19.840 --> 0:11:22.760 They tried to take a knee. We were denied access 0:11:22.800 --> 0:11:25.360 to the base at many of the bases we normally occupy. 0:11:26.440 --> 0:11:30.400 Now the truth is we're not as inclined to occupy 0:11:30.440 --> 0:11:34.080 these bases now that we have seen what the Iranians 0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:36.079 can throw at them. This is much more than when 0:11:36.080 --> 0:11:38.240 I was the commander of Central Command, for example, back 0:11:38.240 --> 0:11:41.840 from two thousand and eight to twenty ten. Back then, 0:11:42.120 --> 0:11:45.640 my forward headquarters was at a huge air base outside Doha. 0:11:45.800 --> 0:11:46.400 All you did. 0:11:46.840 --> 0:11:49.360 We had a beautiful headquarters paid for by the cutteries 0:11:49.360 --> 0:11:51.560 one hundred million dollars or whatever, but half of it's 0:11:51.559 --> 0:11:54.520 above ground. And I can assure you the Central Commanded 0:11:54.760 --> 0:11:58.080 Commander did not do what he what his predecessors have 0:11:58.120 --> 0:12:00.440 always done, which is being the same time with all 0:12:00.480 --> 0:12:03.920 of your forces. He stayed at the base at McDill 0:12:03.920 --> 0:12:07.560 Air Force Base outside Tampa. That's where the war has 0:12:07.600 --> 0:12:10.400 been run from, not from the forward hedgewards, a combined 0:12:10.440 --> 0:12:14.199 near operations center, which functions that that same airbase runs 0:12:14.200 --> 0:12:16.760 the air war for the region, and in this case 0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:18.760 even had the Israeli Air Force as part of it. 0:12:18.800 --> 0:12:21.880 In many respects, they didn't run from out there either, 0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:24.920 because it's vulnerable. They actually ran it from an airbase 0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:26.280 in South Carolina. 0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:29.480 How should this conflict reframe the way that we look 0:12:29.480 --> 0:12:32.280 at US military readiness? So we see the use of 0:12:32.559 --> 0:12:34.959 drones in Iran, We've seen them of course in the 0:12:35.040 --> 0:12:38.800 Ukraine wars as well. I think there's been some fear 0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:42.360 that the US has deployed a lot of military might 0:12:42.440 --> 0:12:44.160 in the Middle East that might leave it vulnerable. 0:12:44.600 --> 0:12:45.600 We're China to do so. 0:12:45.720 --> 0:12:46.840 There's a number of issues. 0:12:46.920 --> 0:12:49.240 Well, I've said publicly for a number of years and 0:12:49.280 --> 0:12:51.880 written about it as well, and very recently in the 0:12:51.920 --> 0:12:54.440 Wall Street Journal Foreign Affairs the Hill. I was trying 0:12:54.480 --> 0:12:57.679 to get at tension of Congress on an issue that 0:12:57.720 --> 0:13:01.360 we have not remotely learned all the lessons we should 0:13:01.400 --> 0:13:04.160 have from the war in Ukraine. That is the future 0:13:04.200 --> 0:13:07.760 of war right now, a war in which you one 0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:11.560 side alone. Ukraine is using ten thousand drones a day. 0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:15.880 Ninety percent of the casualties on the Russian side are 0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:20.120 caused by drones. Tanks can't maneuver anymore, they can't survive 0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:24.440 armored vehicles. You can't even drive vehicles in the death zone, 0:13:24.440 --> 0:13:27.080 which is thirty five kilometers on either side of the 0:13:27.120 --> 0:13:29.880 front lines, which aren't even lines anymore, because drones can 0:13:29.880 --> 0:13:34.199 fly into trenches and kill people, so their survival positions. 0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:37.760 So this is just a vast change. 0:13:37.800 --> 0:13:40.240 And by the way, there's more coming because within a 0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:43.920 year or two we're going to see not remotely piloted, 0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:47.520 unmanned systems. And keep in mind that Ukraine is going 0:13:47.520 --> 0:13:50.720 from three point five million drones manufactured last year to 0:13:50.760 --> 0:13:53.080 seven million this year, so they can get up to 0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:55.679 twenty thousand drones per day if they can find the pilots. 0:13:56.360 --> 0:14:01.199 But in the future, we're going to see autonomous systems, 0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:05.360 truly autonomous, that do not require a pilot to remotely 0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:09.760 operate them. And then you face drone swarms, and that 0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:11.960 is something for which we really don't have a solution. 0:14:12.000 --> 0:14:15.000 There's high power microwave coming. It's very short range, it's 0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:18.920 very effective, but you're going to have to have tons 0:14:19.080 --> 0:14:21.920 of it. Given the two to three kilometer range that 0:14:21.960 --> 0:14:26.120 it has. It's spectacular. Everything drops, but you're going to 0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:28.800 have to have a lot of them. So that I 0:14:28.800 --> 0:14:32.680 think hopefully this is going to drive home the absolute 0:14:32.720 --> 0:14:36.760 imperative of true institutional change in the United States, overhauling 0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:41.560 the entire concepts of war and operation. The attendant organizational 0:14:41.640 --> 0:14:44.960 change is sweeping. You know, unmanned systems force equal to 0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:47.400 the Army and Navy Air Force in Ukraine, for example. 0:14:48.040 --> 0:14:51.560 Change how you train and operate, change how you educate 0:14:51.680 --> 0:14:55.080 your leaders, and change obviously what you buy and even 0:14:55.080 --> 0:14:58.440 how you buy it, because you want the opportunity to 0:14:58.720 --> 0:15:01.880 make software change every a week or two, hardware changes 0:15:01.920 --> 0:15:04.880 every few weeks. This is a very different model from 0:15:04.960 --> 0:15:08.760 what we have. Beyond that, we've obviously used a lot 0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:11.880 of our exquisite munitions, cruise missiles and so forth, and 0:15:11.960 --> 0:15:16.400 a lot of our exquisite missile interceptors, a very substantial number, 0:15:17.360 --> 0:15:20.640 and we have really got to get the arsenal democracy 0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:21.200 going again. 0:15:21.280 --> 0:15:21.680 Right now. 0:15:21.760 --> 0:15:25.960 The arsenal democracies in Ukraine, not the United States, and 0:15:26.000 --> 0:15:27.960 we have got to make huge change, and the President's 0:15:28.000 --> 0:15:31.640 doing that. He called together all the defense major companies 0:15:31.680 --> 0:15:34.280 and so forth, laid out what we need them to 0:15:34.320 --> 0:15:37.040 do in terms of tripling or quadruple in production of 0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:38.280 certain systems and so. 0:15:38.160 --> 0:15:40.200 Forth on Ukraine. 0:15:40.520 --> 0:15:42.640 Does it feel like we are at a tipping point? 0:15:42.680 --> 0:15:45.160 We had the approval of this very sizable package from 0:15:45.320 --> 0:15:49.240 the Europeans, We've seen drone attacks now closer to and 0:15:49.320 --> 0:15:52.000 on Moscow. Are we in a different place now than 0:15:52.040 --> 0:15:52.360 we were? 0:15:52.440 --> 0:15:52.920 Yeah? We are. 0:15:52.960 --> 0:15:55.440 And I've actually said for almost a year now that 0:15:55.480 --> 0:15:59.600 I could envision a situation in which if there's sufficient 0:15:59.640 --> 0:16:03.640 support for the Ukrainians, and this nine billion euros from 0:16:03.720 --> 0:16:06.800 the European Commission is very very helpful, probably takes care 0:16:06.840 --> 0:16:09.840 of them for another year and a half, and if 0:16:09.840 --> 0:16:13.200 they can continue to increase the production drones and pilots 0:16:13.200 --> 0:16:15.240 and units that can use them and all the rest 0:16:15.240 --> 0:16:20.920 of that, and start going deeper in Russia and inflicting 0:16:20.960 --> 0:16:23.880 such casualties in Russia that it's maybe the same as 0:16:24.240 --> 0:16:26.320 what they're recruiting on a monthly basis. You know, they've 0:16:26.360 --> 0:16:30.480 now taken almost one point four million killed and wounded. 0:16:30.520 --> 0:16:33.080 That's more than we sustained in all of World War Two. 0:16:33.320 --> 0:16:37.360 So and all of a sudden last month, the Ukrainians 0:16:37.560 --> 0:16:41.120 took back more territory than the Russians actually took from them. 0:16:41.200 --> 0:16:45.280 These are incremental gains, but more for the Ukrainian side, 0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:49.600 and Ukrainians causing staggering amounts of Russian casualty. I just 0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:54.720 don't think that Russia can continue this, certainly next year. 0:16:54.760 --> 0:16:56.520 At some point, I think Putin's going to look in 0:16:56.520 --> 0:16:59.960 the mirror, especially if the lifting of sanctions on their 0:17:00.040 --> 0:17:05.199 oil sales in the price of oil are reimposed and 0:17:05.280 --> 0:17:08.640 his National welfare fund runs out of money because it's 0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:11.920 being diverted to the military industrial complex. All that happens, 0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:15.200 I think you could see a point where Russia needs 0:17:15.200 --> 0:17:17.760 a cessation of hostilities as much as it does Ukraine. 0:17:18.320 --> 0:17:20.720 Last question is just about the balance of hard power 0:17:20.720 --> 0:17:23.000 and soft power at this moment. So we've seen the 0:17:23.080 --> 0:17:26.160 US technicols Maduro bring him to the United States, see 0:17:26.200 --> 0:17:29.960 the US deploy hard power in Iran as well. How 0:17:30.000 --> 0:17:31.840 good are we with that balance at this point? How 0:17:31.880 --> 0:17:34.280 important is it to have that equilibrium between the hard 0:17:34.280 --> 0:17:36.399 power that we're using and the soft power that we're deploying. 0:17:36.480 --> 0:17:39.000 Right, It's a really interesting question, and I'd have to 0:17:39.040 --> 0:17:42.440 say that, certainly from my time in Uniform or the CIA, 0:17:43.800 --> 0:17:46.679 that the hard power is much more prominent and the 0:17:46.720 --> 0:17:49.639 soft power is much reduced. I mean, just the fact 0:17:49.640 --> 0:17:52.280 that we did away with the Agency for International Development 0:17:52.720 --> 0:17:57.160 usaid that we aren't funding anywhere near what we did, 0:17:57.280 --> 0:18:00.800 although Congress has actually restored a lot of this. You know, 0:18:01.000 --> 0:18:04.520 we used to say that what solidifies the gains on 0:18:04.560 --> 0:18:08.760 the battlefield, if you can establish a security foundation, what 0:18:08.920 --> 0:18:13.840 solidifies it is the soft power. It's providing humanitarian assistance. 0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:23.000 It's restoring basic services, it's rebuilding damaged home schools, clinics, shops, roads, bridges. 0:18:22.600 --> 0:18:23.040 All of this. 0:18:23.720 --> 0:18:27.080 So the people say, you know what, I don't want 0:18:27.119 --> 0:18:30.280 these guys to come back and jeopardize this. Let's get 0:18:30.400 --> 0:18:32.120 rid of al Qaeda. You know what do they bring 0:18:32.160 --> 0:18:35.920 on us. Let's get rid of these insurgents. Let's marginalize 0:18:35.920 --> 0:18:38.240 that she and militia supported by Iran, all this kind 0:18:38.320 --> 0:18:43.000 of stuff. So that's what soft power does. To be sure, 0:18:43.040 --> 0:18:45.439 there are many pet rocks in the numbers that you know, 0:18:45.640 --> 0:18:51.480 every congressmen are executive branch official. We can probably survive 0:18:51.720 --> 0:18:55.119 very well with all these well meaning programs and so forth, 0:18:55.520 --> 0:18:59.760 but you can't survive when you're trying to turn security 0:18:59.760 --> 0:19:06.720 gains into actual, solidified gains overall without that kind of 0:19:06.760 --> 0:19:07.359 soft power. 0:19:07.440 --> 0:19:09.960 So I'm a bit concerned by that. General. 0:19:10.000 --> 0:19:10.600 Thank you very much. 0:19:10.720 --> 0:19:11.720 Great to be with you, David. 0:19:11.720 --> 0:19:12.000 Thank you. 0:19:14.359 --> 0:19:17.320 Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend. Right 0:19:17.359 --> 0:19:17.880 after this. 0:19:29.880 --> 0:19:32.399 In a bola outbreak in Central Africa is suspected to 0:19:32.400 --> 0:19:34.639 have killed one hundred and seventy six people, and there 0:19:34.640 --> 0:19:37.640 are about eight hundred and thirty suspected and confirmed cases 0:19:37.720 --> 0:19:39.960 of the deadly disease, but the head of the World 0:19:40.280 --> 0:19:43.119 Health Organization says the scale of the epidemic in the 0:19:43.119 --> 0:19:46.680 Democratic Republic of the Congo is much larger. The US 0:19:46.720 --> 0:19:49.760 officially withdrew from the WHO in January, and experts say 0:19:49.800 --> 0:19:52.639 the public health response to the outbreak has been adversely 0:19:52.680 --> 0:19:55.040 impacted by the dismantling of usaid. 0:19:55.440 --> 0:19:58.000 Estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation show 0:19:58.080 --> 0:20:01.560 is spending on a bola related aid research and operational support, 0:20:01.600 --> 0:20:05.640 including government funding delivered directly or through international aid organizations 0:20:05.640 --> 0:20:09.360 fell roughly one hundred and eighty six thousand dollars last year. 0:20:09.359 --> 0:20:12.399 That is down from about twenty three million dollars in 0:20:12.480 --> 0:20:15.439 twenty twenty one. Jeremy conna Duct managed the US response 0:20:15.480 --> 0:20:17.760 to the bolder outbreak in West Africa in twenty fourteen. 0:20:17.800 --> 0:20:21.320 He had a USAID's response to COVID nineteen. Today he's 0:20:21.359 --> 0:20:24.040 the president of Refugees International and he joins us now 0:20:24.040 --> 0:20:26.280 here on this Saturday morning. Jeremy, great to have you 0:20:26.440 --> 0:20:27.960 with us, and I want to start first with just 0:20:27.960 --> 0:20:30.520 what you've observed here over the last few weeks. Christina 0:20:30.520 --> 0:20:33.119 mentioned just a moment ago, there is concern that the 0:20:33.119 --> 0:20:34.880 facts that we have, the data that we have, aren't 0:20:34.920 --> 0:20:37.879 painting a complete holistic picture of how wide this outbreak is. 0:20:38.440 --> 0:20:41.679