WEBVTT - The GOP and Polls and a Postpartum Breakthorugh 0:00:01.280 --> 0:00:05.119 You're listening to the Bloomberg Opinion podcast count US Saturdays 0:00:05.120 --> 0:00:08.280 at one in seven pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, 0:00:08.320 --> 0:00:11.479 the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:13.760 on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:19.239 Welcome to Bloomberg Opinion I Amy Morris. This week we 0:00:19.280 --> 0:00:22.040 look at the impact of the price wars in electric 0:00:22.200 --> 0:00:26.840 vehicle motors in the US and China. Plus suicide is 0:00:26.880 --> 0:00:30.960 a leading cause of maternal mortality in the US. But 0:00:31.160 --> 0:00:36.640 now a remarkable breakthrough the very first pill for postpartum depression. 0:00:36.920 --> 0:00:40.560 Will it be enough? But first we begin with politics 0:00:40.600 --> 0:00:43.120 and what the polls are telling us. And the answer 0:00:43.240 --> 0:00:47.160 is not a lot. Reuter's IPSOS poll says about half 0:00:47.200 --> 0:00:50.280 of all Republicans say they will not vote for Donald 0:00:50.320 --> 0:00:53.680 Trump if he's convicted of a felony. But maybe we 0:00:53.760 --> 0:00:56.920 should take those polls with a grain of salt. GOP 0:00:57.080 --> 0:01:01.840 presidential candidate and North Dakota Governor Douggham tells ABC that 0:01:01.960 --> 0:01:05.280 voters are not paying attention to Trump's legal issues. 0:01:05.480 --> 0:01:07.800 When we're out talking to voters in Iowa New Hampshire, 0:01:07.800 --> 0:01:10.560 they're not asking about the indictments. If they want to 0:01:10.600 --> 0:01:12.520 they can turn on a cable news network and watch 0:01:12.520 --> 0:01:14.360 that seven by twenty four. But then what they are 0:01:14.400 --> 0:01:16.119 asking about is inflation. 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:20.280 North Dakota governor and presidential hopeful Doug Burgham. Let's dig 0:01:20.319 --> 0:01:23.800 into all of this with Bloomberg opinion columnist Jonathan Bernstein. 0:01:24.360 --> 0:01:26.880 Let's just start from the very beginning. Are people thinking 0:01:27.040 --> 0:01:28.560 about the twenty twenty four election? 0:01:28.680 --> 0:01:28.920 Yet? 0:01:29.319 --> 0:01:32.000 It depends on which people you're talking about. If you're 0:01:32.040 --> 0:01:36.759 talking about Republican Party actors, you know, people who make 0:01:36.800 --> 0:01:41.040 a living in politics, who are you know, passionate about politics? Oh? Absolutely, 0:01:41.080 --> 0:01:43.720 they've been thinking about it for years. If you're talking 0:01:43.720 --> 0:01:47.240 about the bulk of most voters, no, you know, it's 0:01:47.520 --> 0:01:50.240 they involved in baseball, pennant races or least you know, 0:01:50.360 --> 0:01:54.680 preseason football, the actors strike, whatever, you know, getting their 0:01:54.760 --> 0:01:58.560 kids to school on time, picking the kids up from daycare, 0:01:58.640 --> 0:02:01.080 all that kind of stuff. You know, they're not thinking 0:02:01.120 --> 0:02:04.000 about politics very much right now. It's you know, August, 0:02:04.040 --> 0:02:06.000 a year before the election. 0:02:06.480 --> 0:02:09.680 So when they are thinking about politics, do they trust 0:02:09.760 --> 0:02:13.560 polls anymore? Remember after twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen, everything 0:02:13.600 --> 0:02:16.920 from Brexit to the presidential election, that seemed like the 0:02:16.960 --> 0:02:21.280 polls just missed so much, so did have people started 0:02:21.520 --> 0:02:23.520 looking at polls and just sort of rolling their eyes 0:02:23.520 --> 0:02:25.240 and saying, ah, this isn't right. 0:02:25.400 --> 0:02:27.519 We wouldn't know unless we could test the polls to 0:02:27.560 --> 0:02:31.639 find out how people think. Right, The truth is that 0:02:31.680 --> 0:02:36.600 the polls missed by a little bit, and people notice 0:02:36.639 --> 0:02:41.560 a lot. It's a close election, and the polls are 0:02:41.600 --> 0:02:45.880 wrong about the outcome. You know, we've had elections where 0:02:45.880 --> 0:02:50.000 the polls were accurate but were maybe five points off, 0:02:50.040 --> 0:02:52.680 but it was a ten point win, so nobody cares. 0:02:53.639 --> 0:02:57.280 You know, people don't trust the polls, but the polls actually, overall, 0:02:57.320 --> 0:03:00.680 as you know, as a they're reasonably accurate. We can't 0:03:00.680 --> 0:03:04.400 get exact numbers. Polls, after all, are only a snapshot 0:03:04.440 --> 0:03:07.400 of where we are. So polls right now don't tell 0:03:07.480 --> 0:03:09.800 us anything about what's going to happen in a presidential 0:03:09.919 --> 0:03:12.400 race more than a year from now. They're not. We 0:03:12.440 --> 0:03:15.400 can't do that because people if you ask people about it, 0:03:15.400 --> 0:03:18.880 they're going to give an answer, because people tend to 0:03:18.919 --> 0:03:21.480 be able to do that, but it's not predictive of 0:03:21.560 --> 0:03:23.959 what they're going to actually do over a year from now. 0:03:24.120 --> 0:03:27.360 It seems to be a foregone conclusion that Trump is 0:03:27.440 --> 0:03:32.040 the air apparent to this nomination process. He's way out 0:03:32.040 --> 0:03:35.080 in front in the polls, and that's kind of the 0:03:35.120 --> 0:03:37.680 point of your whole column is, maybe don't take the 0:03:37.760 --> 0:03:40.280 polls about Donald Trump so seriously just yet. 0:03:40.400 --> 0:03:44.240 Right, It turns out that nomination point can be somewhat 0:03:44.280 --> 0:03:48.840 predictive this far out, but with huge caveats. The probably 0:03:48.960 --> 0:03:53.560 is with anything about Trump right now. The reason that 0:03:53.600 --> 0:03:56.680 we can trust polls generally is because posters, who are 0:03:56.760 --> 0:03:59.240 very good at what they do, they can construct models 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:04.440 based on on previous iterations, previous election cycles. There's never 0:04:04.560 --> 0:04:08.640 been a presidential candidate who's facing sets of felony charges. 0:04:09.240 --> 0:04:14.440 So it's just hard to model that we you know, 0:04:14.640 --> 0:04:19.360 by all standard indications, absolutely Trump is well out in front, 0:04:19.400 --> 0:04:23.280 not just in the polls, but also by endorsements from 0:04:23.520 --> 0:04:28.440 important Republicans, you know, all all the ways that you 0:04:28.480 --> 0:04:33.159 would tell who's winning the nomination. Trump looks like he's winning. 0:04:33.240 --> 0:04:36.560 Does that mean he's a lock to win? I don't 0:04:36.600 --> 0:04:38.680 think so, because I don't think we can predict how 0:04:38.720 --> 0:04:42.400 this plays out over time. Maybe trials that happened even 0:04:42.440 --> 0:04:46.200 as soon as the Iowa caucuses, you know, which are 0:04:46.200 --> 0:04:47.120 coming up in January. 0:04:47.640 --> 0:04:52.080 And as you had said, there are those Republicans, those 0:04:52.400 --> 0:04:56.359 more high level, top tier Republicans in the party who say, yeah, 0:04:56.400 --> 0:05:00.400 if he's convicted, I'm not going to cast my vote him, 0:05:00.520 --> 0:05:04.200 or as things are going right now in the courts, 0:05:04.360 --> 0:05:07.120 I just don't think Donald Trump is good for our party. 0:05:07.360 --> 0:05:11.200 Doesn't necessarily mean they can be held to that, especially 0:05:11.360 --> 0:05:14.279 considering that we haven't even had the first debate yet. 0:05:14.400 --> 0:05:17.000 Yeah, we're gonna have debates, We're going to have campaigning, 0:05:18.000 --> 0:05:21.520 but the big thing that matters the most is going 0:05:21.560 --> 0:05:25.120 to be events and how voters react to that, on 0:05:25.320 --> 0:05:28.400 how party actors react to that, and a lot of it. 0:05:29.279 --> 0:05:32.520 Even they don't know yet how they will actually react 0:05:32.560 --> 0:05:35.240 to some of these things. Now, so far he's been indicted, 0:05:35.360 --> 0:05:38.200 that has not you know, people have not abandoned him, 0:05:39.600 --> 0:05:42.479 and that's a good indication that it's not going to 0:05:42.520 --> 0:05:45.719 happen soon. But we still don't know because it's something 0:05:45.760 --> 0:05:50.080 that's unprecedented. So it's a little hard to guess how 0:05:50.080 --> 0:05:54.520 people's reactions will go as evidence comes out, as perhaps 0:05:54.600 --> 0:05:57.840 you know, we go to trial. There's just some uncertainty there. 0:05:58.000 --> 0:06:00.560 Have we seen anything like this before, for when it 0:06:00.600 --> 0:06:03.160 comes to trying to figure out where things are headed, 0:06:03.320 --> 0:06:05.320 what the trend is going to be with polls. What 0:06:05.360 --> 0:06:08.800 I mean is clearly what we're talking about is the 0:06:08.800 --> 0:06:12.320 Trump candidacy, and that there is something particular about his 0:06:12.440 --> 0:06:16.200 campaign Trump supporters that can put his poll numbers into question, 0:06:16.320 --> 0:06:20.839 whether you're talking about his legal issues or the devotion 0:06:21.360 --> 0:06:23.920 that a lot of his supporters have for him no 0:06:23.920 --> 0:06:27.000 matter what he does. I'm wondering if we've seen that 0:06:27.120 --> 0:06:30.040 before anywhere in the history of this country. 0:06:30.880 --> 0:06:34.839 I don't think there's anything comparable in that you have 0:06:34.960 --> 0:06:38.560 separate out the nomination side and the general election side. Okay, 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:42.560 nominations are always vulnerable, or at least they are always 0:06:42.600 --> 0:06:46.000 potentially valiable. So we've seen, you know, candidates go from 0:06:46.600 --> 0:06:49.840 big leads to collapsing overnight. We've seen, you know, in 0:06:50.839 --> 0:06:55.080 just the last cycle, Joe Biden had a big lead 0:06:55.160 --> 0:06:57.719 in the polls and then got clobbed in the first 0:06:57.880 --> 0:07:01.839 couple events, and then you know, and then Bernie Sanders 0:07:01.880 --> 0:07:04.320 had a big lead and then suddenly Biden came back 0:07:04.400 --> 0:07:09.560 and you know, one one very comfortably. So you know, 0:07:09.560 --> 0:07:11.680 where the polls predictive, well sort of, they were the 0:07:11.680 --> 0:07:15.800 original ones turned out to be, but not so changes 0:07:15.840 --> 0:07:21.560 can like that can happen very quickly. And because you know, yes, 0:07:22.080 --> 0:07:26.480 Donald Trump's core supporters really like him, but they're Republicans, 0:07:26.480 --> 0:07:29.080 they probably like the other candidates too, or at least 0:07:29.120 --> 0:07:31.680 potentially like them. Maybe at the moment they don't. They 0:07:31.680 --> 0:07:33.680 may not have heard yet about some of the other 0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:36.400 candidates who they may eventually come to like. Now, if 0:07:36.440 --> 0:07:40.600 you talk about general election, that's much less valuable. If 0:07:40.720 --> 0:07:46.000 then we're talking about well, maybe Trump if he's unpopular 0:07:46.040 --> 0:07:48.800 and he you know, when you're talking about general action, 0:07:48.920 --> 0:07:54.200 Trump is very unpopular. That could cost Republicans two three, five, 0:07:54.360 --> 0:07:58.200 We don't know points compared to a generic Republican candidate, 0:07:58.280 --> 0:08:00.640 and you know, but the move but there is going 0:08:00.720 --> 0:08:03.680 to be around the margins. He's not going to lose 0:08:03.720 --> 0:08:05.840 all his support overnight, because Republicans are going to at 0:08:05.880 --> 0:08:07.520 the end of the day look at it and say, well, 0:08:07.680 --> 0:08:10.840 even those who are unhappy with Trump are going to say, well, 0:08:10.880 --> 0:08:13.320 but the alternative is even worse, and so they're going 0:08:13.360 --> 0:08:15.720 to wind up most of them are going to wind 0:08:15.800 --> 0:08:17.800 up back with Trump, of course, if they if he 0:08:17.840 --> 0:08:21.280 lose this five percent versus a generic Republican he's in 0:08:21.360 --> 0:08:23.120 huge trouble for actually win the election. 0:08:24.040 --> 0:08:25.880 Oh, I would like to shift gears before we let 0:08:25.960 --> 0:08:29.200 you go, Jonathan about something on the Democratic side, and 0:08:29.240 --> 0:08:32.480 that is the investigation into Hunter Biden. It is moving 0:08:32.520 --> 0:08:35.160 along with some momentum as well as the move to 0:08:35.200 --> 0:08:40.959 impeach President Biden, which dovetails with that investigation. I'm wondering 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:44.360 about where the GOP's mindset is, if they really believe 0:08:44.400 --> 0:08:47.920 this is bound to help them in twenty twenty four. 0:08:48.400 --> 0:08:51.559 Perhaps do they believe that they have something there. You know, 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:54.120 it's hard to get into into anybody's mind. What I 0:08:54.160 --> 0:08:57.600 can say about it is it's good programming for Republican 0:08:57.640 --> 0:09:01.920 aligned media, and those people are very very important within 0:09:01.960 --> 0:09:05.520 the Republican Party coalition. For individual members of the House. 0:09:05.960 --> 0:09:11.720 If you push impeachment of Joe Biden, regardless of evidence, logic, 0:09:12.240 --> 0:09:15.920 even a theory that would be impeachable, you're going to 0:09:15.960 --> 0:09:19.360 get invited onto all the talk shows. And so there's 0:09:19.640 --> 0:09:25.480 strong internal Republican reasons to push this, which have very 0:09:25.520 --> 0:09:28.640 little to do with twenty twenty four or with actually 0:09:28.760 --> 0:09:29.679 getting rid of Biden. 0:09:29.920 --> 0:09:33.400 Yeah, the reason I'm asking is because in recent years 0:09:33.400 --> 0:09:36.800 we've seen impeachment movements right the Clinton White House the 0:09:36.800 --> 0:09:41.080 Trump White House, but both times it helped the incumbent. 0:09:41.720 --> 0:09:44.880 I don't think it helped Trump in twenty twenty. 0:09:45.000 --> 0:09:45.400 You don't. 0:09:46.400 --> 0:09:49.360 I mean, after all, he lost, and Trump basically remained 0:09:50.000 --> 0:09:53.880 unpopular throughout his presidency, but before the pandemic, when the 0:09:53.880 --> 0:09:57.600 economy was very good, he was unusually unpopular for a 0:09:57.679 --> 0:10:02.920 situation with prosperity. In Bill Clinton's case, it probably helped 0:10:02.960 --> 0:10:05.800 him a little bit, but Bill Clinton was mainly helped 0:10:05.840 --> 0:10:08.200 by peace and prosperity. The other thing is you have 0:10:08.280 --> 0:10:11.720 to separate the push for impeachment with the actual scandal. 0:10:12.000 --> 0:10:15.080 In Clinton's case, the actual scandal was a huge, big 0:10:15.120 --> 0:10:18.560 story in nineteen ninety eight. I think that the Joe 0:10:18.559 --> 0:10:21.920 Biden story as of right now is not a huge 0:10:21.920 --> 0:10:25.520 scandal on its own. It's a huge story because Republicans 0:10:25.520 --> 0:10:28.480 in the House are pretending it's a big story. Perhaps 0:10:28.720 --> 0:10:33.480 they'll eventually come up with evidence or something. So it's 0:10:33.520 --> 0:10:37.520 really impeachment on its own. Is the story not what 0:10:37.640 --> 0:10:38.679 Biden has done? 0:10:38.960 --> 0:10:42.800 Bloomberg Opinion columnist Jonathan Bernstein, And coming up, we're going 0:10:42.840 --> 0:10:45.040 to take a look at price wars between the US 0:10:45.080 --> 0:10:49.080 and China over electric vehicle motors and batteries and who 0:10:49.120 --> 0:10:52.160 has the edge. Now you're listening the Bloomberg Opinion. 0:11:01.480 --> 0:11:05.480 You're listening to the Bloomberg Opinion podcast counts Saturdays at 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:08.600 one in seven pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 0:11:08.679 --> 0:11:11.800 iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on 0:11:11.880 --> 0:11:13.960 demand wherever you get your podcasts. 0:11:16.400 --> 0:11:20.080 You're listening to Bloomberg Opinion i Amy Morris. Price wars 0:11:20.160 --> 0:11:24.000 continue over electric vehicle motors in China and the US, 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:28.040 and usually they could be either creative or destructive. They've 0:11:28.080 --> 0:11:30.559 been dealing with a higher cost structure that subsidies in 0:11:30.640 --> 0:11:34.079 manufacturer losses, cancer mount but that's starting to change. We 0:11:34.160 --> 0:11:37.000 want to learn more now. Bloomberg Opinion columnist David Fickling 0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:40.400 also covers energy and commodities, and he's going to set 0:11:40.440 --> 0:11:43.040 us straight. Now, let's first talk about the price wars 0:11:43.080 --> 0:11:46.880 over EV motors, electric vehicle motors. Who has the edge? 0:11:46.920 --> 0:11:48.079 What are you seeing now? 0:11:48.480 --> 0:11:50.880 Well, yeah, as you said, I think there's two types 0:11:50.920 --> 0:11:54.000 of price wars out there. The destructive ones, which are 0:11:54.000 --> 0:11:56.360 the ones that we classically think about often think a 0:11:56.400 --> 0:11:59.000 good metaphor is like the airline industry if you had, 0:11:59.160 --> 0:12:01.520 you know, if you have Nighted and Delta going into 0:12:01.559 --> 0:12:03.600 a price war with each other, it will be very 0:12:03.679 --> 0:12:06.760 value destructive. You're teaching consumers to pay less for their 0:12:06.760 --> 0:12:11.880 tickets essentially, and neither side really benefits. On the other hand, 0:12:12.080 --> 0:12:15.880 if Southwest goes into a price war against Delta, you're 0:12:15.920 --> 0:12:19.600 in a different You're in a different sort of environment 0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:22.560 because of course Southwest has a fundamentally lower cost structure 0:12:23.480 --> 0:12:25.640 and that and they're going to win from that. You know, 0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:28.960 if you look at the airline industry, the you know, 0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:31.679 the higher the airlines are the highest valuations are mostly 0:12:31.720 --> 0:12:34.160 discount carriers because they have a they've got a lower 0:12:34.160 --> 0:12:36.920 fundamental cost structure. Now, the reason I think this is 0:12:36.920 --> 0:12:42.000 relevant to the auto industry is that until very recently 0:12:42.000 --> 0:12:46.280 and really at this point now, the product with the 0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:49.400 lower cost structure is a gasoline or diesel powered cars. 0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:53.560 It's fundamentally cheaper than than a battery electric car. But 0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:57.160 that has been changing because the most expensive bit, which 0:12:57.200 --> 0:12:58.920 is you know, can be you know, a third or 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:01.880 more of the cost of the electric car is the battery. 0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:06.559 And as battery manufacturing goes through the roof, as it's 0:13:06.600 --> 0:13:09.200 expanding at this very rapid right. The costs are coming 0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:11.440 down quite dramatically. Now we've had a bit of a 0:13:11.520 --> 0:13:13.120 we've had a bit of a bump with the commodity 0:13:13.120 --> 0:13:17.280 price inflation of the last few years, but the overall trajectory, 0:13:18.000 --> 0:13:19.880 if you plod it out in a graph, is still 0:13:19.920 --> 0:13:22.560 going down. And we're very close to the point, and 0:13:22.600 --> 0:13:25.960 now I think in China passing the point where they're 0:13:26.000 --> 0:13:29.200 actually going to be fundamentally cheaper on price, and that 0:13:29.240 --> 0:13:31.000 makes a big difference to everything. 0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:34.880 The batteries themselves also are a bit of a disincentive 0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:37.560 for those who don't want to spend half an hour 0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:40.360 charging their car when they're on a road trip, or 0:13:40.480 --> 0:13:45.079 who are concerned about the weight of it changing the 0:13:45.120 --> 0:13:48.680 structure of the car and changing the speed of the car. 0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:52.400 And it's inten that sort of thing. Is all of 0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:55.160 that baked into this, Yes it. 0:13:55.160 --> 0:13:58.560 Is, And I mean the article I was writing was 0:13:58.600 --> 0:14:02.400 talking about how electric cars in China are now becoming 0:14:02.480 --> 0:14:04.840 cheaper than gasoline cars, and of course how you measure 0:14:04.880 --> 0:14:07.839 that is is a little bit difficult because they are 0:14:07.880 --> 0:14:11.880 fundamentally different products, So so how do you measure that 0:14:12.040 --> 0:14:14.760 they are competitive? And the point that you're raising there, 0:14:14.800 --> 0:14:17.199 I think is an important one because one thing that 0:14:17.200 --> 0:14:21.360 we've seen from quite early on you'll know, the phrase 0:14:21.440 --> 0:14:24.320 range anxiety. This is something that people, you know, worry 0:14:24.320 --> 0:14:26.480 a lot about. Is the battery going to last me 0:14:26.560 --> 0:14:28.520 long enough to go on a long road trip. Am 0:14:28.600 --> 0:14:31.960 I going to be spending half an hour charging when 0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:34.800 I'm you know, rushing to a family dinner or something 0:14:34.840 --> 0:14:37.880 like that. And one thing that we've seen as the 0:14:38.000 --> 0:14:41.760 cost you would measure the cost of electric car batteries by, 0:14:41.800 --> 0:14:44.000 you know, the cost per killer what hour. As the 0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:47.760 cost per killer what hour has gone down, we've generally 0:14:47.840 --> 0:14:51.800 actually seen the batteries getting bigger. So the actual cost 0:14:51.840 --> 0:14:55.040 of your battery is not getting is not going down 0:14:55.120 --> 0:14:58.080 the cost you know, because the killer what hours are 0:14:58.120 --> 0:15:00.400 going up at the same time that the cost birgear 0:15:00.440 --> 0:15:02.520 what hour goes down. And that's because the car makers 0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:06.000 have been trying to address range anxiety. And you know, 0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:10.360 at this point, a typical electric vehicle will will will 0:15:10.360 --> 0:15:13.360 give you, you know, it'll give you sort of four hundred 0:15:13.440 --> 0:15:16.520 k's on a good charge, So what was that two 0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:20.920 hundred and fifty miles, But of course that's in ideal conditions. 0:15:20.960 --> 0:15:24.640 And now they've you know, now they've addressed range anxiety 0:15:24.680 --> 0:15:27.000 and ideal conditions. Well, what happens if it's cold, what 0:15:27.040 --> 0:15:30.000 happens if you've got the air conditioning running? And so 0:15:30.000 --> 0:15:34.080 so in some ways they've been you know, you know, 0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:37.440 trying to go up and down escalator against this. But 0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:40.840 if you look, now, you know two crucial models. I 0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:44.640 think the you know, obviously, the Tesla Model three is 0:15:44.960 --> 0:15:47.520 a car that's got a sort of demonstrated ability to 0:15:48.200 --> 0:15:52.720 you know, to to sort of compete against that range anxiety. 0:15:52.800 --> 0:15:55.560 And it is its competing on price with a lot 0:15:55.600 --> 0:15:58.280 of the sort of you know, the sort of premium 0:15:58.520 --> 0:16:01.880 mid size sedans, the sort of BMW three series oud 0:16:01.880 --> 0:16:06.480 ea for you know, Mercedes C class. It's now cheaper 0:16:06.520 --> 0:16:07.840 than those cars in China. 0:16:07.880 --> 0:16:11.760 Now, how is it, David, that China has seemed to 0:16:11.840 --> 0:16:14.840 crack the code? And how far behind is the US 0:16:14.840 --> 0:16:18.760 in this competition to make these batteries more efficient the 0:16:18.840 --> 0:16:19.920 car is more efficient. 0:16:20.200 --> 0:16:23.000 If you compare the US and China in what sort 0:16:23.040 --> 0:16:26.560 of electric vehicles are being designed, they're they're extremely different. 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:28.720 If you if you look at the market, of course, 0:16:28.760 --> 0:16:30.880 you know the thing we all know about the US 0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:34.840 market is that well, in both the US and China, 0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:37.720 SUVs are very dominant, but of course trucks and you know, 0:16:37.800 --> 0:16:42.440 light trucks in the US, pickups are extremely dominant. So 0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:48.160 the advantage for US car makers, and we've seen it 0:16:48.200 --> 0:16:50.240 with the you know, the Ford F one fifty lightning 0:16:50.920 --> 0:16:54.120 and obviously, like you know, Teszler's attempt with this cyber 0:16:54.160 --> 0:16:57.360 truck and riving the lights is to try and get 0:16:57.360 --> 0:17:01.880 into that sort of large, larger vehicle market, large you know, 0:17:02.360 --> 0:17:07.080 light truck or suv market, and that's the sort of 0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:10.200 that's the area where there's lightly the earliest crossover point 0:17:10.240 --> 0:17:14.439 where electric vehicles become cheaper than gastine. They're clearly not 0:17:14.480 --> 0:17:16.680 there yet. It's probably sort of two or three years 0:17:16.680 --> 0:17:19.640 away at this point. In the US China, the sort 0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:21.479 of core of the market is a little bit different. 0:17:21.640 --> 0:17:24.200 There's the SUVs are still big, as they are everywhere, 0:17:24.480 --> 0:17:27.840 but these sort of like mid size sedans again, like 0:17:28.400 --> 0:17:32.280 you know, some of these you know vw ones that 0:17:32.320 --> 0:17:34.879 we that we've been talking about, those are you know, 0:17:34.960 --> 0:17:36.800 those are to some extent the core of the market. 0:17:37.080 --> 0:17:40.439 And because there's the range, anxiety is a little bit 0:17:40.520 --> 0:17:43.600 less because the population is that much denser, people are 0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:46.600 less spread out. A lot of these cars have been 0:17:47.000 --> 0:17:48.680 are starting to get into the market that are sort 0:17:48.680 --> 0:17:51.320 of coming in a sort of cheaper price point. And 0:17:51.359 --> 0:17:54.119 of course, the one other thing is a crucial supply 0:17:54.200 --> 0:17:57.520 chain thing. Of course, you know, China has has already 0:17:57.760 --> 0:18:02.200 built a vast battery supply chain, the Chinese battery makers, 0:18:02.200 --> 0:18:04.600 they've built the capacity for the batteries, but they're having 0:18:04.680 --> 0:18:08.040 trouble getting export markets sufficient for them, so all that 0:18:08.240 --> 0:18:10.800 capacity is stuck at home, and that's pushing prices down. 0:18:11.160 --> 0:18:14.520 I'm wondering if these price wars and it this competition 0:18:14.600 --> 0:18:18.159 is helping to spur this growth and development that you're seeing, 0:18:18.400 --> 0:18:20.240 and it sounds like there's more room for it. 0:18:20.640 --> 0:18:23.960 Yeah, I mean, it's I think fundamentally you have to 0:18:23.960 --> 0:18:27.239 come back to looking at the market share, and you know, 0:18:27.359 --> 0:18:29.880 go back a few years. I think in twenty nineteen, 0:18:30.400 --> 0:18:33.439 the Chinese government set a target for twenty five percent 0:18:33.480 --> 0:18:36.800 of the market to be new energy vehicles by twenty 0:18:36.880 --> 0:18:40.680 twenty five. I remember reading just i think three years ago, 0:18:41.080 --> 0:18:45.120 quite a bullish report from Deloitte, reckoning that you'd get 0:18:45.119 --> 0:18:48.200 about a third of China's electric vehicle Sorry, a third 0:18:48.200 --> 0:18:50.560 of the Chinese car market would be electric by twenty 0:18:50.600 --> 0:18:53.479 twenty nine to twenty thirty by the end of this decade. Now, 0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:56.960 in June, these new energy vehicles were thirty seven percent 0:18:57.000 --> 0:19:00.600 of sales. If you look at how they've risen, it 0:19:00.720 --> 0:19:04.040 is really taken the market by storm. And if you 0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:10.080 look at the best selling cars in China again in June, 0:19:10.280 --> 0:19:12.840 seven out of ten of them were batteri or plug 0:19:12.840 --> 0:19:16.400 in hybrid models. So and that really changes the whole 0:19:16.480 --> 0:19:20.280 dynamic in significant ways because these are no longer exotic products. 0:19:20.320 --> 0:19:23.120 These are extremely familiar products to everyone. And one thing 0:19:23.119 --> 0:19:25.760 that we've you know that a lot of carmakers have found. 0:19:26.359 --> 0:19:29.400 We talked about range anxiety and many of those issues. 0:19:29.560 --> 0:19:31.680 You know, it tends to be an issue for people 0:19:31.680 --> 0:19:34.439 who haven't bought an electric car yet for owners of 0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:37.080 electric cars, it's not. It doesn't really trouble them very 0:19:37.160 --> 0:19:40.399 much at all. So and this is why the issue 0:19:40.400 --> 0:19:43.600 of the sort of you know, the price competition and 0:19:43.640 --> 0:19:45.879 the price war is so important. Like you reduce the 0:19:45.920 --> 0:19:49.879 barrier to people buying their first electric car similar to people, 0:19:50.240 --> 0:19:53.320 you know, buying their first discount airline ticket, people find 0:19:53.359 --> 0:19:56.760 they're actually quite open to it once they once they 0:19:56.840 --> 0:19:57.440 get a chance. 0:19:57.880 --> 0:20:02.680 David Fickling is a Bloomberg Opinion covering energy and commodities. 0:20:02.720 --> 0:20:04.760 Now coming up, we're going to learn more about a 0:20:04.800 --> 0:20:07.800 new postpartum depression pill and how it is becoming a 0:20:07.920 --> 0:20:12.000 vital tool in women's healthcare. Don't forget We're available as 0:20:12.000 --> 0:20:15.919 a podcast on Apple, Spotify or your favorite podcast platform. 0:20:16.280 --> 0:20:20.200 This is Bloomberg Opinion. As many as half of women 0:20:20.280 --> 0:20:25.520 with postpartum depression go undiagnosed, and suicide is a leading 0:20:25.600 --> 0:20:29.159 cause of maternal mortality in the US. But now a 0:20:29.280 --> 0:20:34.239 remarkable breakthrough, the very first pill for postpartum depression. But 0:20:34.320 --> 0:20:37.040 will it be enough. Let's talk about it with Bloomberg 0:20:37.080 --> 0:20:41.000 Opinion columnist Lisa Jarvis, who covers biotech, healthcare and the 0:20:41.000 --> 0:20:46.119 pharmaceutical industry. Lisa, let's talk about postpartum depression. Something I 0:20:46.160 --> 0:20:49.440 get the impression isn't talked about very much at all 0:20:49.480 --> 0:20:53.080 in this country. How many women experience postpartum depression? 0:20:53.400 --> 0:20:56.040 Ray Amy, Well, thanks for having me, and we know 0:20:56.119 --> 0:20:59.680 that as many as one in seven women experience postpartum 0:20:59.680 --> 0:21:02.760 depress and one of the things that's worth noting is 0:21:02.800 --> 0:21:06.560 that many of those women are experiencing depression even before 0:21:06.840 --> 0:21:11.439 during their pregnancy, and during that period it's going undetected 0:21:11.440 --> 0:21:14.840 and undiagnosed and untreated, and that can carry over into 0:21:14.840 --> 0:21:17.639 the pregnancy itself. And so you know, we know that 0:21:17.920 --> 0:21:21.560 the postpartum period is just one of enormous change. Anyone 0:21:21.560 --> 0:21:25.639 who's had a child knows that all of your relationships 0:21:25.880 --> 0:21:28.840 change in an instant with your partner, your parents, your peers, 0:21:28.920 --> 0:21:32.640 even your own body. The social pressure to have a 0:21:32.680 --> 0:21:36.360 perfect connection with your baby is great, and meanwhile, you're 0:21:36.400 --> 0:21:39.520 often very isolated because you're taking care of a newborn, 0:21:39.640 --> 0:21:42.879 and on top of that, you're sleep deprived. So a 0:21:42.880 --> 0:21:45.240 lot of people struggle during that period. And you're right, 0:21:45.400 --> 0:21:46.880 it's just not talked about enough. 0:21:47.359 --> 0:21:50.160 Now. A lot of people would assume that, oh, it's 0:21:50.400 --> 0:21:55.040 just hormones, my body is readjusting from pregnancy to being 0:21:55.040 --> 0:21:58.919 a new mom, or like you said, I am just 0:21:59.080 --> 0:22:03.040 not getting enough sleep. Does that tend to mask what 0:22:03.080 --> 0:22:06.679 people might think is just oh, I need a nap, 0:22:06.960 --> 0:22:09.280 versus ooh I might need to talk to someone. 0:22:09.720 --> 0:22:12.560 Well, first, I think it's important to recognize your's a spectrum. 0:22:12.600 --> 0:22:14.719 You know, there's kind of the baby blues, and then 0:22:14.720 --> 0:22:17.119 there's something that gets more serious and then you know, 0:22:17.160 --> 0:22:19.000 of course, there have been cases that we've all read 0:22:19.000 --> 0:22:22.560 about that are really, you know, horrifying and terrible for 0:22:22.720 --> 0:22:25.560 families where women have an extreme version of this. But 0:22:26.040 --> 0:22:29.480 I think it's when you know, you're kind of noticing 0:22:29.520 --> 0:22:32.600 that you're struggling to feel happy in this period that 0:22:32.960 --> 0:22:35.520 you know doesn't have to be perfect, but generally people 0:22:35.560 --> 0:22:39.119 are you know, who aren't depressed, are like, have the 0:22:39.119 --> 0:22:41.359 surge of hormones that makes them, that fuel them to 0:22:41.359 --> 0:22:45.960