Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Monday edition of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm
Speaker 2: Joe Matthew in Washington, where there are not many left.
Speaker 2: The house is gone. As we told you the end
Speaker 2: of last week. There are some senators still in town
Speaker 2: waiting maybe for something to happen on a deal with
Speaker 2: the border. But the language we heard, despite a flurry
Speaker 2: of negotiating over the weekend, does not sound great. Not
Speaker 2: that this has been derailed, but the idea of it
Speaker 2: happening by the end of the year might be a
Speaker 2: bit of a stretch. And that's not good news for Ukraine,
Speaker 2: which of course would be forced to wait for funding
Speaker 2: that's been requested now for some time. And as I
Speaker 2: read on the terminal, a new warning from the Pentagon,
Speaker 2: a letter just obtained from Bloomberg News before we talked
Speaker 2: to Melinda Herring. It's very important. The Pentagon says it
Speaker 2: will run out of money, and we knew this from
Speaker 2: Shland Young at the administration that the end of the
Speaker 2: year would not be good for financing Ukraine. But now
Speaker 2: we have details. We have a level of detail we
Speaker 2: did not have before. Pentagon will run out of money
Speaker 2: to replace weapons sent to Ukraine by December thirty, unless,
Speaker 2: of course, some miracle happened on Capitol Hill spending now
Speaker 2: the last one billion dollars to buy new weapons and
Speaker 2: equipment that will replace those drawn down from stockpiles and
Speaker 2: sent to Ukraine. This is from the Pentagon controller at
Speaker 2: December fifteen. Letter that we have obtained says that on
Speaker 2: December thirty, fifteen days after this letter was sent, its
Speaker 2: accounts will be empty. Now. That was the message over
Speaker 2: the weekend from Chris Van Holland, the Democratic Senator from Maryland,
Speaker 2: on ABC this week, without necessarily those details, but certainly
Speaker 2: the same spirit here.
Speaker 3: He is we need to make sure that we help
Speaker 3: our Ukrainian friends against Putin's aggression, not just to protect
Speaker 3: their freedom, but because it would send a terrible signal
Speaker 3: around the world to our allies who no longer trust us,
Speaker 3: and to our adversaries who would be in Bolden if
Speaker 3: we're not doing that.
Speaker 2: That's where we begin our conversation with Melinda Herring, and
Speaker 2: I have a lot more questions for Melinda than just
Speaker 2: beyond this, but quite a starting point for us here,
Speaker 2: of course, a voice of assurance and authority on this topic,
Speaker 2: and has been with us talking about this since the
Speaker 2: very beginning, the very early stages of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Speaker 2: Senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center and back
Speaker 2: with us now live on Bloomberg Sound On. Melinda, It's
Speaker 2: great to see you. You have a date to circle
Speaker 2: now on the calendar. What does that mean in your
Speaker 2: calculation as you watch the lack of action here on Washington.
Speaker 4: Hey, Joe, thanks for having me back.
Speaker 5: So I'm fresh in from Kiev and I think I
Speaker 5: still have those sort of Ukraine goggles on, and it's
Speaker 5: really scary. There is a lot of gratitude in Ukraine
Speaker 5: for everything that Washington has done, but there's also frustration.
Speaker 5: I think that folks in Ukraine don't understand how desperate
Speaker 5: the situation is. So there's not enough Ammo, and that's
Speaker 5: been well documented. There's not enough men. It's cold, it's winter,
Speaker 5: and what Washington does, others will do. So I think
Speaker 5: all eyes are on Congress, but it looks like this
Speaker 5: is going to get pushed back to January, and we
Speaker 5: know the longer this goes on, the more likely it's
Speaker 5: going to be difficult to pass. And frankly, it's not
Speaker 5: really a Ukraine issue anymore. The Congress is not going
Speaker 5: to move until this National security bill, this border issue
Speaker 5: is resolved. So it's up to it's incumbent on the
Speaker 5: White House to make this happen. If they really want
Speaker 5: to make sure that Ukraine can win the war.
Speaker 2: Well, if this is a month, if you're right, and
Speaker 2: a lot of folks seem to think that could happen, Melinda,
Speaker 2: there's a deal on the border. Maybe over the holidays,
Speaker 2: lawmakers come back, they pass the bill and get it done.
Speaker 2: Money goes to Ukraine. Maybe late January February, I think
Speaker 2: is kind of the timeline you're working on there. Did
Speaker 2: we just send them enough in this latest billion apparently
Speaker 2: last for now billion dollar trunch to get them through
Speaker 2: that period of time.
Speaker 4: I don't know exactly.
Speaker 5: I don't have the numbers in front of you, Joe,
Speaker 5: but what I do know is that there's not enough ammunition,
Speaker 5: and the Ukrainians announced today they don't have enough Soviet ammunition,
Speaker 5: and this is something they've been pleading and begging for.
Speaker 5: The Europeans promised to put supply chains in place to
Speaker 5: build the ammunition they needed. The United States also promised
Speaker 5: to put those things in place, and it hasn't happened.
Speaker 5: So we're months and years behind the reality on the ground,
Speaker 5: and it's going to cause commanders and generals in Ukraine
Speaker 5: to have to make decisions that they don't want to make.
Speaker 5: It's going to limit their military options. So the decisions
Speaker 5: that we're making here in Washington have real life consequences
Speaker 5: for Ukrainian soldiers. But I think let's broaden this a bit.
Speaker 5: This is not just about Ukraine. You and I have
Speaker 5: talked about this a dozen times. What happens in Ukraine
Speaker 5: doesn't stay in Ukraine. That's why it's so crucial to
Speaker 5: get these funds to Ukraine and the broader picture too.
Speaker 4: Also in Europe. We saw last.
Speaker 5: Week orbon Is vetoing an enormous fifty four billion dollars
Speaker 5: from the EU and that's the money that keeps the
Speaker 5: state afloat. So Ukraine, the situation Ukraine is precarious on
Speaker 5: a number of different levels.
Speaker 2: This is so much to ask you about here, Melinda.
Speaker 2: Before I get to that EU funding, talk to me
Speaker 2: more about this supply chain, because this has been in
Speaker 2: the air essentially since the first batch of weapons we
Speaker 2: sent because we knew it would be difficult to replace them.
Speaker 2: We don't have the supply chain or the manufacturing chain
Speaker 2: here in the US to take care of ourselves, never
Speaker 2: mind Ukraine. And you've just pointed to an important promise
Speaker 2: from our European allies as well. What should be up
Speaker 2: and running right now? What do we need to build?
Speaker 5: So the Europeans and the Americans need to basically move
Speaker 5: to a war footing in terms of getting the Ukrainians
Speaker 5: the kind of shells they need. The Ukrainians have been
Speaker 5: very explicit Joe on these are the sort of precision
Speaker 5: weapons we need.
Speaker 4: These are the right AMMO we need.
Speaker 5: And it's a complicated process and we haven't put we
Speaker 5: haven't put it in place. So you know, if we
Speaker 5: want Ukraine to win the war, President Biden has the
Speaker 5: authority to make this happen. European governments can stand this up.
Speaker 5: It's really a question of political will.
Speaker 2: The ask from the White House is roughly sixty billion
Speaker 2: dollars most of which actually would be invested here in
Speaker 2: the US in our own defense contractors. But you pointed
Speaker 2: out the EU. That's fifty five billion dollars, Melinda, and
Speaker 2: the EU now will hold a special summit I read
Speaker 2: on the first of February to discuss this four year
Speaker 2: funding package which is being held up by opposition from
Speaker 2: Victor Orbon of all people. How important is that money
Speaker 2: when we try to frame the urgency around the request
Speaker 2: here in the US, where would this money go? And
Speaker 2: how badly does Ukraine need it now?
Speaker 5: So desperately is the right word. There's three categories of aid.
Speaker 5: There's the military assistance, and the US is the leader
Speaker 5: on that. We've done an awesome job. We haven't done enough.
Speaker 5: We've been way too slow, especially on the AMO side,
Speaker 5: and we haven't sent enough weapons. When I was in
Speaker 5: Key of last week, I met with a parliamentarian and
Speaker 5: he said, thank you for the attack. I'ms but thirty
Speaker 5: five give me a break, like we need hundreds. We
Speaker 5: need as many as possible. So there's the military side,
Speaker 5: there's the economics side, and the EU has been the
Speaker 5: leader on this. And this is the money that keeps
Speaker 5: the state alive. It keeps the railways going, it keeps
Speaker 5: homes lit, it keeps pensions paid. This is really important
Speaker 5: and the EU has been the leader on this. So
Speaker 5: if the EU can't get this through, it's gonna make
Speaker 5: it much much harder for Ukraine as a state to exist.
Speaker 5: And then the third bucket is the humanitarian assistance.
Speaker 2: Manpower is something that you mentioned and we talked about
Speaker 2: this when you were just back last week. It's not
Speaker 2: just men to fight, young strong men to fight, but
Speaker 2: just people to help with this response and to keep
Speaker 2: society going here. Melinda put that in perspective for us.
Speaker 4: Sure, so, Joe.
Speaker 5: In October, I went out to Zepparisia, which is one
Speaker 5: of the provinces that Vladimir Putin claims he now belongs
Speaker 5: to Russia, and I spoke to a number of people,
Speaker 5: and the feeling there among Ukrainian soldiers is that we
Speaker 5: Ukrainian soldiers, who have been fighting for more than six
Speaker 5: hundred days, are sticking our necks out, and all of
Speaker 5: society in Ukraine is not helping. Some people are having
Speaker 5: normal lives and they haven't done enough, and that there
Speaker 5: needs to be a bigger mobilization and that President Zelensky
Speaker 5: needs to put the economy on a war footing, and
Speaker 5: everyone needs to be contributing so that the war can
Speaker 5: be ended as soon as possible. I've heard that sentiment
Speaker 5: again and again, and I would say that that's growing
Speaker 5: frustration in Ukraine.
Speaker 2: Right now, we're spending time with Melinda Herring from the
Speaker 2: Atlantic Council amid this debate in Washington on whether to
Speaker 2: or how to, or to what extent the US should
Speaker 2: be funding Ukraine. President Zelenski was here not that long ago,
Speaker 2: while you were in Kiev. As a matter of fact, Melinda,
Speaker 2: he understands the debate here in the United States, the
Speaker 2: political element here domestically that's impacting funding for his own country.
Speaker 2: What do people in Kiev say about this?
Speaker 5: What do people in Kiev say about Zelenski's visit. I
Speaker 5: think they're glad.
Speaker 2: That the fact that we're holding this up actually on
Speaker 2: our own border dispute. That's something that he's aware of.
Speaker 2: He's a politician, he's in touch with Joe Biden. But
Speaker 2: what are people walking around Kiev say about securing the
Speaker 2: border in al Paso?
Speaker 5: They're so confused Joe that they're like, why are you
Speaker 5: guys conflating the two, what do these have to do
Speaker 5: with each other? And the answer is, we don't know,
Speaker 5: they're not are totally unrelated. And then you know, I
Speaker 5: have to explain wonderful American domestic politics that this is
Speaker 5: a way to get something that the GOP wants and
Speaker 5: give Biden a black eye. But in Ukraine, when there's
Speaker 5: air sirens, you know, in the front lines, when when
Speaker 5: it's a matter of life and death, this feels really silly.
Speaker 5: It's really hard to explain how petty the politics are here.
Speaker 4: In a war zone.
Speaker 2: General Mark Kimmett here on this program me Linda suggested
Speaker 2: that if there was a lapse in funding, if that
Speaker 2: had to happen, that landing in the middle of a
Speaker 2: bitter cold winter might in fact be the best time
Speaker 2: for it to us fighting begins to slow down. I
Speaker 2: wonder if you agree with that, knowing the hell that
Speaker 2: Ukrainian soldiers are about to go through.
Speaker 5: I think that the General has a point, Joe, So
Speaker 5: I don't agree on humanitarian assistance, but on military assistance,
Speaker 5: if you have to pick a point to slow it down,
Speaker 5: sure that that make that makes sense.
Speaker 4: And we're at a bit of a lull right now.
Speaker 5: It's still a hot war, but it's you know, there's
Speaker 5: limited options you have during during a winter period. But
Speaker 5: from a humanitarian perspective, you know, if you can't heat homes,
Speaker 5: if you don't have water, if the trains can't run,
Speaker 5: if you can't pay pensions and it's twenty degrees, you're
Speaker 5: going to have a big humanitarian crisis. And I think
Speaker 5: the bigger point is that's what Vladimir Putin wants.
Speaker 4: You know, we discussed this many times.
Speaker 5: What was the rocket strategy last year that Putin threw
Speaker 5: all over Ukraine? And it was to try to create
Speaker 5: a massive migration and scare the hell out of people
Speaker 5: so that they would.
Speaker 4: Leave and go to go to Europe. And he did
Speaker 4: not accomplish that.
Speaker 5: So you know, in some ways Putin is getting what
Speaker 5: he wants, sort of pieced by a piece and incrementally.
Speaker 5: And if I have to sum up where I think
Speaker 5: we are, I think this is the strategy. He doesn't
Speaker 5: have to unleash this horrible, super aggressive rocket strategy. If
Speaker 5: you look at the number of rockets he's shooting this
Speaker 5: year compared to last year, the number is quite a
Speaker 5: bit lower. And I think Putin thinks he has the
Speaker 5: West in Ukraine exactly where he wants us. He's very tactical,
Speaker 5: and he's very patient, and he thinks that he cares
Speaker 5: more about Ukraine than the West does.
Speaker 2: Wow. Chilling analysis from Melinda Herring. Melinda, thank you for
Speaker 2: your first hand accounts and your insights today. As always,
Speaker 2: I look forward to these conversations. You's senior fellow at
Speaker 2: the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center. We Linda Herring with us
Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg. So some of the panel, so Rick
Speaker 2: and Jenie can take a swing at what we have here.
Speaker 2: Our signature panel is back today Bloomberg Politics Contributors. Rick,
Speaker 2: there was some skepticism, maybe I can use that word
Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill when the White House sent a letter
Speaker 2: about when Ukraine funding would run out. Here, now we've
Speaker 2: got it from the Pentagon, does that create any new urgency?
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think it's a little bit more urgency. It's
Speaker 6: not like the Senate negotiators don't already know that. Maybe
Speaker 6: puts a little pressure on the House guys as they
Speaker 6: are at home having to explained this to their constituents.
Speaker 6: But it also, you know, Ford tells a story about
Speaker 6: how equipped is the Department Offense and the Biden administration
Speaker 6: in being able to support this to begin with. I mean,
Speaker 6: we just heard from Melinda about, you know, how frustrated
Speaker 6: the Ukrainians have been about not getting enough weapons systems
Speaker 6: on time, you know, to be able to fight the
Speaker 6: war that they're trying to fight. And I think the
Speaker 6: Biden administration has to really calibrate are they really ready
Speaker 6: to support this, especially if there's not an immediate funding
Speaker 6: between now and the end of the year.
Speaker 2: Does a letter like this matter, Genie, when the whole
Speaker 2: thing rides on a border deal.
Speaker 4: It does matter.
Speaker 7: But you know, I thought what Melinda said to you,
Speaker 7: which was so chilling, was not only the description of
Speaker 7: the cold and the lack of men and the lack
Speaker 7: of ammunition, but the confusion of Ukrainians. I mean, there's
Speaker 7: confusion for Americans, but imagine the confusion for Ukrainians thinking
Speaker 7: that their future depends on a border deal between the
Speaker 7: US and Mexico to address a problem that has been
Speaker 7: vexing US for decades. So you can just really really
Speaker 7: feel their pain and frustration on this. And yet as
Speaker 7: we look at what's happening in Congress and we're going
Speaker 7: to talk about that, it doesn't sound like they're going
Speaker 7: to get any at least in the short term, any
Speaker 7: relief or any clarification or clarity on that, and it's
Speaker 7: got to be just, you know, god awful for them
Speaker 7: sitting over there watching this.
Speaker 2: Well, Genie is right, We're gonna flip the coin on
Speaker 2: this talk about the border deal or lack thereof.
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Speaker 2: So, as I mentioned, the Senators are still kicking around Washington.
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess it's a pretty good time to
Speaker 2: be here. They've got the Christmas Tree up across the street,
Speaker 2: the city center there, the Capitol Tree is pretty nice,
Speaker 2: and you can park kind of anywhere right now, maybe
Speaker 2: get a table at your favorite restaurant. The problem is
Speaker 2: the border deal they were supposed to be sticking around
Speaker 2: for does not appear to be emerging, and that may
Speaker 2: be all right, considering the fact that you know, for
Speaker 2: the last twenty or thirty years we haven't been able
Speaker 2: to get this done. So another five minutes. Maybe this
Speaker 2: leeds into January, if you ask Lindsey Graham. And of
Speaker 2: course all this at the expense of the people of Ukraine.
Speaker 2: As we were just discussing with Melinda and the panel,
Speaker 2: Lindsay Graham on Sunday Morning TV says, don't hold your breath.
Speaker 8: Well, I think this will go into next year. I've
Speaker 8: been talking to the people at the table. The White
Speaker 8: House got engaged five days ago. They sent over a
Speaker 8: supplemental with border security provisions that did nothing to change policy.
Speaker 8: We've been talking to him since September, five days ago.
Speaker 8: They finally said at this table, Sarah Lankfort's doing a
Speaker 8: good job. The bottom line here is we feel like
Speaker 8: we're being jammed. We're not anywhere close to a deal.
Speaker 8: It'll go into next year.
Speaker 2: Talk about being jammed now. Interesting as we hear from
Speaker 2: the players at the table, James Langford, Chris Murphy, kirston Cinema,
Speaker 2: they say they're making progress, but look, there's a lot
Speaker 2: of details here, even on the big strokes. Behind all
Speaker 2: of them, there are great details. Mitch McConnell and Senator Langford,
Speaker 2: by the way, send a note to colleagues. You know,
Speaker 2: remember we talked about the Dear Colleague letter. It's never
Speaker 2: good in this case, his Republicans will not be rushed
Speaker 2: to a deal this week. And if Chuck Schumer moves
Speaker 2: forward with plans for a procedural vote as he promised
Speaker 2: to quote, it would not succeed unquote. So let's reassemble
Speaker 2: the panel for their take. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzino,
Speaker 2: of course, with us here Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick, I
Speaker 2: don't know where we're going here. Everyone could look like
Speaker 2: a genius. If a deal emerges, say the first or
Speaker 2: second week of January, how much space should we give them?
Speaker 6: Yeah, look, I mean you're gonna have to give them
Speaker 6: whatever space you can because it's the only game in town.
Speaker 6: And I think the Deer College letter was just a
Speaker 6: rearguard action to try and keep some of the caucus,
Speaker 6: like Lindsey Graham quiet because they've been upset that they
Speaker 6: don't know the details of this negotiation. So look, anytime
Speaker 6: you have a group of people, especially a triparty negotiation
Speaker 6: like this with Cinema and Langford and Murphy a Democrat,
Speaker 6: a Republican and an independent, all trying to negotiate a deal.
Speaker 6: Everybody in those other caucuses, the ours and the d's,
Speaker 6: are going to feel left out and concerned. And so
Speaker 6: all of a sudden, Biden comes in there and starts saying, Hey,
Speaker 6: you know, we got to really get this done for
Speaker 6: the for the you know, people of Israel, for the
Speaker 6: people of Ukraine, for our southern border.
Speaker 9: You know, then they're going to feel jammed.
Speaker 6: My own view, I think the White House ought to
Speaker 6: turns time and attention on the Democrats, get them say
Speaker 6: yes to a deal. It's much more important, frankly, for
Speaker 6: the Democrats to get a deal than it is for
Speaker 6: Republicans right now. But bottom line is sure doesn't sound
Speaker 6: like a deal's eminent. And so we're talking about a
Speaker 6: completely insane January, considering all the things that come they're
Speaker 6: going to have to do within thirty days of coming
Speaker 6: back on the eighth of January.
Speaker 2: I say we just go to Des Moines. We'll hide there,
Speaker 2: Rick and Jennie until this is sorted out. I don't know, Genie,
Speaker 2: I want to hear from you on this let's say
Speaker 2: Joe Biden does start calling Democrats. I don't know what
Speaker 2: progress he can make without something a little bit more
Speaker 2: detailed to sell. But you hear Lindsey Graham, there a
Speaker 2: lot of backhands at the White House. Hey, they just
Speaker 2: started five days ago. Should Joe Biden have gotten on
Speaker 2: this earlier?
Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, I have to agree on that. I
Speaker 7: think the White House needed to be present earlier on this,
Speaker 7: But quite frankly that said, I'm not sure it would
Speaker 7: have helped. He's got a real problem on his hands.
Speaker 7: Number One, he decided to put all of this forward
Speaker 7: in one big lump, and of course you're talking about
Speaker 7: some of the most vexing problems. And while it made
Speaker 7: sense in one perspective, if this thing doesn't turn out
Speaker 7: where there's going to be a lot of rethinking about
Speaker 7: this approach, and so I think the White House has
Speaker 7: got to own that part of it. Of Course, the
Speaker 7: incentives for Republicans to do anything on the border at
Speaker 7: this point are nil, and we're we heard from from
Speaker 7: Donald Trump over the weekend. Does anybody think he is
Speaker 7: going to help make this an easy vote for any Republicans?
Speaker 7: You know, that's the reality. He doesn't want anything on
Speaker 7: the border a deal for Biden. He also doesn't want
Speaker 7: to support Ukraine. You couple that with what's happening on
Speaker 7: the left. Progressives don't want Biden to give away the store.
Speaker 7: So this is a huge enormous challenge. And you know,
Speaker 7: January eighth, Langford is saying they might have something to do.
Speaker 4: Well, they've got a lot to do. They return, there's.
Speaker 7: The Iowa Caucus for funding before four departments run out
Speaker 7: of money. On the nineteenth, the twenty ninth we of this,
Speaker 7: we have New Hampshire and then right after that the
Speaker 7: rest of the government runs out of funding. So the
Speaker 7: idea that you're going to fix of the border in
Speaker 7: any kind of concerted way in those couple weeks is
Speaker 7: really really tough to imagine.
Speaker 2: At this point, I shouldn't be laughing, but just listening
Speaker 2: to you two guys described January, I'm taking the month off.
Speaker 2: You know, Rick Gen brings up a really interesting point here,
Speaker 2: and that's Donald Trump, because I don't know which way
Speaker 2: this cuts. We understand now that he is in regular talks,
Speaker 2: He's in regular contact with Speaker Mike Johnson. So what
Speaker 2: happens if Donald Trump tells Republicans to vote against the deal.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think that it just depends upon what the
Speaker 6: terms of the bill's going to be. First of all,
Speaker 6: getting Mike Johnson to put it on this calendar will
Speaker 6: be number one. If there's a Senate deal, it'll go
Speaker 6: on to the House calendar. The question is will it
Speaker 6: be a bipartisan vote. Typically it would be a bypartisan vote.
Speaker 6: We've seen over three hundred members willing to support these
Speaker 6: kinds of transactions. It doesn't really matter what the Freedom
Speaker 6: Caucus thinks about this or Donald Trump if you have
Speaker 6: two hundred Democrats voting with you. So look, I think
Speaker 6: that the House is going to take care of itself.
Speaker 6: Donald Trump is lobbying against Ukraine funding, He's lobbying against
Speaker 6: funding for the border. The last thing he wants to
Speaker 6: do is these things become Republican orthodoxy, because he's way
Speaker 6: outside of the normal Republican level of support for these things.
Speaker 9: Even the public.
Speaker 6: Republicans support it more than Donald Trump does. So the
Speaker 6: last thing he wants to do is have to react
Speaker 6: to this when he's fighting away. As Genie said in
Speaker 6: Iowa on the fifteenth and the twenty third in New Hampshire,
Speaker 6: these are not things he's going to spend time talking about.
Speaker 9: So I don't know.
Speaker 6: I mean, it's it'll be interesting because if the House
Speaker 6: does take it up and it keeps it as an
Speaker 6: open vote, I think it could be an incredible rebuke
Speaker 6: to Donald Trump at the hands of you know, his
Speaker 6: sort of you know, favorite speaker today.
Speaker 2: Well, it would be, which is why I am deeply
Speaker 2: curious about that. And I think to your point, Genie,
Speaker 2: he's not going to like anything that comes up here
Speaker 2: that doesn't involve a wall with his name on it.
Speaker 2: I didn't know if I should bring this up or not.
Speaker 2: I've got to ask you both about this. A little
Speaker 2: scandal that came up over the weekend. A Senate staffer
Speaker 2: is out of a job. Stafford a Senator Ben Cardon
Speaker 2: after recording a graphic sex tape. This is real in
Speaker 2: the historic Heart two sixteen hearing room, the encounter will
Speaker 2: say happen on the dais the Daily caller out with
Speaker 2: tapes over the weekend. I'm just wondering if this is done.
Speaker 2: I have to ask you guys about it. Our listeners
Speaker 2: and viewers I don't think would forgive me if I didn't.
Speaker 2: This is all I heard about for half the weekend, Genie.
Speaker 2: Does there need to be an investigation? Or he got fired?
Speaker 2: So let's move on because this won't help the way
Speaker 2: people look at the hill.
Speaker 7: I wish you had gone to Rick Davis on this first,
Speaker 7: because he's he's going to have a lot to say
Speaker 7: on the No, you know, I think he fired. He
Speaker 7: should have been fired. You know, obviously I did not
Speaker 7: see the tapes, assuming they are real, and there does
Speaker 7: need to be an investigation, because my gosh, is our
Speaker 7: government buildings just open for these kinds of things?
Speaker 9: Where well, that's the question.
Speaker 7: It's baffling to me that this could happen. I kept
Speaker 7: thinking it was a deep fake. I'm not saying it was,
Speaker 7: but I sort of hope it was. But I have
Speaker 7: no evidence that it opened it was.
Speaker 2: That's the question this is. I'm going to him right now. Look,
Speaker 2: I mean, there's a lot of SALATIONIOU stuff you could
Speaker 2: talk about here. But are we to believe that all
Speaker 2: these rooms are open for access? This is same room
Speaker 2: played host of Supreme Court nominees nine to eleven commission hearings.
Speaker 2: This is right where Senator Chris Coons was sitting for
Speaker 2: crying out loud. Should we be concerned?
Speaker 9: Uh, I don't think you have to be.
Speaker 6: Too concerned about staffers going into hearing rooms.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 6: This was, you know, just a couple of people walking
Speaker 6: through the Capitol on a tour and decide to have sex.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I hear them.
Speaker 9: That'd be one thing.
Speaker 6: I'd be more concerned about the cleanliness of that hearing
Speaker 6: room the next time they stake a seat on that diet.
Speaker 2: I hope this is a real effort to do that.
Speaker 2: We'll move on from here, but my goodness, someone need
Speaker 2: to call the sergeant at arms. You're both very graceful
Speaker 2: with that. By the way, I just you know, everyone's
Speaker 2: kicking out this wholemade video. What do the Capitol police have?
Speaker 2: Aren't there cameras in all these rooms? I digress.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington alongside Kaylee Lines, and as
Speaker 2: I mentioned, Kaye, there are a couple folks left. A
Speaker 2: couple senators are knocking around. They were hoping to get
Speaker 2: you a deal on the border. It's looking like that
Speaker 2: would take a Christmas miracle. But there are a couple
Speaker 2: of other things they might need to get done. What
Speaker 2: do we have military promotions in the air eleven of
Speaker 2: them four stars. This brings us back to the Tubberville blockade.
Speaker 2: And then there's the matter of the FAA reauthorization.
Speaker 10: Which has to be done by your right so.
Speaker 2: It could be a pretty short menu by the time they're.
Speaker 11: Done an extension on f a A, which is what
Speaker 11: I hear they're going to do, right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that was like a stealth introduction that I can.
Speaker 11: Never I can't never tell the difference between radio and
Speaker 11: TV radio.
Speaker 2: We can't either because now they're all the same.
Speaker 9: But Kaylee, I thought they.
Speaker 11: Could do an f a A extension until March or
Speaker 11: April by the end of the year, not a full reauthor.
Speaker 2: It would be a short term kick it to next year.
Speaker 2: Will figure out then, right.
Speaker 10: As they like to do.
Speaker 2: Yeah, mcny cannon balls into the pool.
Speaker 9: I just thought we were chatting.
Speaker 2: Of course we don't. I mean, do we need to
Speaker 2: tell everyone every week? It's no acting.
Speaker 11: No, that was chess Club president high School, a lot
Speaker 11: from the obviously there learnt a lot of members of
Speaker 11: the clubs.
Speaker 2: We're not getting a deal this week, right, can we
Speaker 2: just go?
Speaker 11: So I don't be on that when you know, granted,
Speaker 11: anything can change at any time, and any politician tells
Speaker 11: you they know exactly what's going on, you can completely
Speaker 11: you know, mostly throughout the window. So when Lindsay says,
Speaker 11: Lindsay Graham says, you know, we're not going to get
Speaker 11: a deal this week, I think I might not get
Speaker 11: a deal this week. But if you get a deal tomorrow,
Speaker 11: they'll be the first one to say, oh yea, I
Speaker 11: always knew were going to get a deal, so that
Speaker 11: I always take that with a great assault. I just
Speaker 11: don't get the feeling, especially.
Speaker 9: With the house gone now.
Speaker 11: Can you imagine the new speaker bringing the house back
Speaker 11: this week?
Speaker 9: Really really really hard to do? What to have a deal?
Speaker 2: They could come back too? Might be correct?
Speaker 11: Yeah, well yeah, if you're deadline and how hard is
Speaker 11: the is the December thirty first deadline? Really I think
Speaker 11: that's a that's a that's having on Ukraine funding.
Speaker 9: Okay, you know I've been watching the show, yeah.
Speaker 11: From the green room, and I'm trying to articulate exactly
Speaker 11: We're trying to say something without sounding like I'm being nasty.
Speaker 11: So I'm gonna put myself in the role of omb.
Speaker 11: Who are the folks who came out and said the
Speaker 11: money runs out on December thirtieth. If I was still
Speaker 11: at OMB and Nancy Pelosi was in charge of the
Speaker 11: House and I put out a press release and said
Speaker 11: the money for Ukraine is gonna run out of December thirtieth,
Speaker 11: and she didn't want to give any money Ukraine, she
Speaker 11: would completely ignore it as a partisan hack, sort of
Speaker 11: using my office to advance a political like she'd throw
Speaker 11: it away.
Speaker 9: As what it comes down now.
Speaker 11: But if it's from DODA, same thing, same thing, especially
Speaker 11: if it's the Trump DoD right.
Speaker 9: I mean, so is politics in everything? Yeah? It is
Speaker 9: the issue on funny Ukraine? Real?
Speaker 11: Yes, I'm not sure how seriously the members of Congress
Speaker 11: look at those deadlines and say, okay, is that a
Speaker 11: real deadline or is there a couple of days in there.
Speaker 11: There's really not much difference, is there between January fourth
Speaker 11: and December twenty seventh?
Speaker 9: And they're probably right.
Speaker 10: Well, except that Bloomberg obtained a letter from the Pentagon
Speaker 10: that says it's December thirtieth, there's going to be no
Speaker 10: more money. So there is that, But I also feel
Speaker 10: like the Senate, it seems like it's taking the deadline
Speaker 10: more seriously, right Chuck Schumer kept people around. These negotiators
Speaker 10: are still in the room, they're talking to the White House.
Speaker 10: Should the House be involved in these conversations if ultimately
Speaker 10: this is going to be a bill the House has
Speaker 10: to pass too. I just wonder if everyone's going to
Speaker 10: work so hard to come to a deal and then
Speaker 10: not all parties agree to it.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I think in a perfect world that would be
Speaker 9: the way it works.
Speaker 11: Keep in mind, Washington doesn't function properly right now, So
Speaker 11: I mean, that's not what I don't get the impression
Speaker 11: that is happening. Are they communicating certainly?
Speaker 9: Is this a you know, a four corners you know.
Speaker 11: Sort of a group of eight combination of the House
Speaker 11: and the Senate talking about it.
Speaker 9: No, they're not. But that's not as partisan as it
Speaker 9: is institutional.
Speaker 11: You've covered this a long time, you know, regardless of
Speaker 11: which parties are in charge of the House and the Senate,
Speaker 11: there's still that institutional tension between those two bodies, and
Speaker 11: the Senate when they cut a deal, are going to
Speaker 11: expect their deal to pass, and the House when they
Speaker 11: cut a deal is expect their deal to pass, right,
Speaker 11: But it never happens like that.
Speaker 9: So should they be doing that? Yeah? Are they? Probably
Speaker 9: at a very low level.
Speaker 11: But clearly this is not an equal discussion between the
Speaker 11: House and the Senate. And does that mean that it's
Speaker 11: going to take longer.
Speaker 2: Yes, it does, and everyone's afraid to get jammed by
Speaker 2: the other chamber. What do you make of this revelation
Speaker 2: that Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, is now
Speaker 2: communicating regularly with Donald Trump. Would you expect that to
Speaker 2: be the case? And how much can the former president
Speaker 2: thumb the scale on this?
Speaker 11: Oh, the second question is really interesting.
Speaker 9: The first question is not.
Speaker 11: Yes, it makes complete sense for the speaker of the
Speaker 11: Republican House representives to be speaking to the de facto
Speaker 11: to the standard exactly and the likely nominee that in fact,
Speaker 11: you'd be if they weren't having the conversation, we'd be
Speaker 11: asking probably harder questions. Whether or not Trump could put
Speaker 11: his thumb on the scale depends on whether or not,
Speaker 11: in part he wants to I'm not sure he has
Speaker 11: a position on this yet, and Trump doesn't won't take
Speaker 11: a position you.
Speaker 9: Know if he if he he's not.
Speaker 11: There yet, so I'm not sure he's I don't know
Speaker 11: where he is on funding Ukraine. My guess is he's
Speaker 11: against it, but he's for funding UH the border and
Speaker 11: for funding board for Israel. So you know, it might
Speaker 11: be one of those things that doesn't fall neatly in
Speaker 11: any package. So I think he could put the thumb
Speaker 11: on the scale with a couple of members, probably are
Speaker 11: those of the member Joe a deal on the border. Yeah,
Speaker 11: you know, unless it's a really really good deal and
Speaker 11: he can take credit for it, I mean, that's that's
Speaker 11: that's the beauty, right if Donald Trump can deliver the
Speaker 11: votes to get the deal and it's a good deal. Maybe,
Speaker 11: but you're right, the starting position, I'll agree with you,
Speaker 11: is it. The last thing that Trump wants politically is
Speaker 11: for Biden to be able to declare a victory this
Speaker 11: close to the midterm, to the election.
Speaker 10: Well, we also had the former president weighing in when
Speaker 10: we first thought the government was shutting down. He seemed
Speaker 10: to be encouraging the crowd that said, you know, hey,
Speaker 10: shut it down.
Speaker 11: He had that shots a couple of times when I
Speaker 11: was there. Yeah, and he had a budget director who
Speaker 11: really really wanted to shut the government down a couple
Speaker 11: of times, and we did it once.
Speaker 9: We did it once seriously.
Speaker 11: Indeed, we signed a bunch of spending bills that I
Speaker 11: wish that we had not, and he wished he had
Speaker 11: not after he signed them.
Speaker 10: Well, and we'll see if he has to weigh in
Speaker 10: again come January nineteenth, February second, when we're dealing with
Speaker 10: potentially to two tiers.
Speaker 11: Five minutes after Iowa getting closer and close in Iowa
Speaker 11: government shut down.
Speaker 10: To go back to this idea that that Joe raised
Speaker 10: of Mike Johnson having really close communication with the former president,
Speaker 10: I wonder if the former president might ultimately be the
Speaker 10: best ally he had because how many allies does he
Speaker 10: realistically have in Congress right now?
Speaker 9: Talk about Mike.
Speaker 11: Yeah, keep in mind, it's sort of when Donald Trump
Speaker 11: got to Washington, and I always said one of his
Speaker 11: greatest strengths was he didn't have any relationships in town.
Speaker 11: And one of the greatest weaknesses he had was he
Speaker 11: didn't have any relationships.
Speaker 9: True Mike Johnson exactly. It can cut both ways.
Speaker 11: Mike does not have the baggage that that that that
Speaker 11: McCarthy had and you know, bad experiences in the past
Speaker 11: for example with you know, certain members. But he also
Speaker 11: hasn't been out there raising the money for the last
Speaker 11: ten years and he doesn't have that good will built up,
Speaker 11: so he can cut absolutely both ways. Again, come back
Speaker 11: to that to the threshold question. It would be strange
Speaker 11: for Mike Johnson not to be talking to Donald Trump,
Speaker 11: but I think that the fact that he's talking to
Speaker 11: him isn't really that remarkable.
Speaker 2: So take us for a walk. What's your view here?
Speaker 2: I mean, do you do you have a a kind
Speaker 2: of they're going to half in your head about what's
Speaker 2: the next deal, because there's a lot that needs to
Speaker 2: get that. Yes, they're not going to shut down, We're
Speaker 2: going to get a border deal that makes all this happen.
Speaker 9: You know.
Speaker 11: I remember back when I used to campaign for a
Speaker 11: living and people will say, oh, it's not I hate
Speaker 11: that Washington isn't more bipartisan, and I'm like, no, No, the
Speaker 11: problem is it's two bipartisan. Because there's one thing that
Speaker 11: everybody can agree on emails on this I know, and
Speaker 11: that's spending more money, and that's what they will agree on.
Speaker 11: They will figure out a way to give everybody enough
Speaker 11: of what they want to pass the Ukraine funding bill
Speaker 11: and Israeli funded bill, a tie one funding bill, and
Speaker 11: a border security bill, and they will keep the government
Speaker 11: open because the spending numbers will just keep going up
Speaker 11: and up and up until they buy enough of ship.
Speaker 4: That's how you get to.
Speaker 10: Say not everyone wants to spend more money. Members of
Speaker 10: the Freedom cock Is that are pushing for pretty draconian cut.
Speaker 11: You don't get thirty three trillion dollars in debt by accident,
Speaker 11: and you don't get it with one party doing it
Speaker 11: to you. Both parties hold hand in hand to get
Speaker 11: you thirty three trillion dollars in debt. The only thing
Speaker 11: this town can agree on and a bipartisan fashion, is
Speaker 11: spending more money.
Speaker 2: So Bob Goods running the Freedom Caucus now we understand
Speaker 2: a good steward. He's not getting along with Kevin McCarthy,
Speaker 2: who we hear is going to try to primary him.
Speaker 2: What's the next year look like for the Freedom cars.
Speaker 9: Oh, it's rough all over the place. It's gonna be
Speaker 9: rough in the House.
Speaker 11: I've had folks call me about the the Nancy base
Speaker 11: race down in South Carolina. I live in South Carolina
Speaker 11: still like I went home after I left Washington, and
Speaker 11: there are folks, you know, trying to line up to
Speaker 11: run against Nancy. And there's folks asking me, you know,
Speaker 11: who should run against Nancy. So I mean, no, no, no, no, no,
Speaker 11: who do I know? It's a different district. It's down
Speaker 11: in Charleston. Not that that makes a difference. As you know,
Speaker 11: you don't have to live in district.
Speaker 9: Little piece political exactly.
Speaker 11: It used to be four members of Congress who lived
Speaker 11: in one district in Wisconsin.
Speaker 9: That's another story for another day.
Speaker 11: So no, it's there's gonna be a lot of internal
Speaker 11: bloodbaths over that when when Patrick McHenry and I've not
Speaker 11: talked to Patrick, so I'm not giving away any any
Speaker 11: private conversations. When Patrick McHenry announced he was retiring from Congress,
Speaker 11: to me, that was the biggest red flag that the
Speaker 11: Republicans themselves think they are going.
Speaker 9: To lose the majority.
Speaker 11: Wow, because Patrick, even though he was term limited, technically
Speaker 11: could have easily received an exemption to maintain his position
Speaker 11: as chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. So here's
Speaker 11: a guy that if he wins and they hold the majority,
Speaker 11: he's going to be financial service as chairman. And he
Speaker 11: announces he's leaving. To me, that tells me that he
Speaker 11: doesn't think that we're going to keep the majority. And
Speaker 11: when you break it down and you talk about Republicans
Speaker 11: fighting against Republicans in certain districts, you talk about losing
Speaker 11: Kevin McCarthy in his ability to raise all that money,
Speaker 11: a lot of the things that are lining up to
Speaker 11: have a tough year for the House Republicans. Does Donald
Speaker 11: Trump make that better or worse? That's really sort of
Speaker 11: the unknown at this point. But right now, if you
Speaker 11: had to bet, you'd bet that the Republicans would struggle
Speaker 11: to keep the House. And that also doesn't bread a
Speaker 11: lot of good will in that building.
Speaker 10: So you think it's not that people are deciding to
Speaker 10: retire because of dysfunction, but maybe they recognize the dysfunction
Speaker 10: is going to cost them.
Speaker 11: It's a variety of things, right Many of them gaily
Speaker 11: that it's hard to sort of paint with a broad brush.
Speaker 11: Some of them are retiring to run for higher office.
Speaker 11: Similar times they've been here forever and then summer the
Speaker 11: time because they might think they're losing the majority some
Speaker 11: of the time because it's just not fun anymore.
Speaker 9: And it really isn't.
Speaker 11: And are the people who are running for higher office saying, well,
Speaker 11: I wasn't going to run for higher office, but this
Speaker 11: place is so miserable, so why not take a chance?
Speaker 2: I run for higher office.
Speaker 11: See it can be a combination of all things. But
Speaker 11: this is when you walk into the building and I
Speaker 11: win the building, not that much, but more than the
Speaker 11: average citizen. It's not friendly right now, and that's the
Speaker 11: members on that people, inter party, intrap party. And it's
Speaker 11: not just Republicans, Democrats have their own issues. It's institutional
Speaker 11: and it's it's a cross party lines.
Speaker 9: It's tough right now.
Speaker 2: So much for the Christmas spirit. Yes, fun when you started?
Speaker 2: Was it fun when I started?
Speaker 9: You know?
Speaker 2: Or has that just been your tenure?
Speaker 11: I think things have certainly changed. I think I think
Speaker 11: that we've gone. It's the vek Ramaswami, Oh God, phenomena
Speaker 11: that I and vivek Ramaswami is someone who came of
Speaker 11: a age in politics during the Donald Trump era. So
Speaker 11: for someone who's only been involved in politics for six
Speaker 11: or seven years, Donald Trump looks normal. Donald Trump can
Speaker 11: get away with what Donald Trump does because he's a
Speaker 11: he's a unique thing.
Speaker 9: He is a black Swan event, right.
Speaker 11: But everybody else is out there thinking, well, if I
Speaker 11: act like Donald Trump, I'll be successful as he is
Speaker 11: on both parties.
Speaker 9: And that's just not. That's not the way that.
Speaker 11: Things are supposed to work, and it's the reason things
Speaker 11: aren't working.
Speaker 2: Great to see you in person a week from today.
Speaker 9: Is uplifting you?
Speaker 7: Today?
Speaker 2: Is Christmas?
Speaker 1: Is it not?
Speaker 2: Well, we never ask uplifting? It is Wow, it is
Speaker 2: You're doing something.
Speaker 9: Right week for today.
Speaker 11: In fact, I just got asked to do television on
Speaker 11: Monday morning at seven o'clock.
Speaker 2: I'll set up.
Speaker 9: Are doing this? You guys aren't doing next Monday?
Speaker 10: Not a chance.
Speaker 2: But I'll see you the week after that.
Speaker 9: Good.
Speaker 11: I just I just had a phone call about the
Speaker 11: new government in Argentina.
Speaker 9: We can do foreign.
Speaker 2: Policies all right.
Speaker 4: Excellent.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Sound on podcast. Make sure
Speaker 2: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and
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Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm
Speaker 2: Eastern time at bloomberg dot com,