1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:10,760 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:17,080 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Monday edition of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm 6 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,200 Speaker 2: Joe Matthew in Washington, where there are not many left. 7 00:00:20,560 --> 00:00:22,479 Speaker 2: The house is gone. As we told you the end 8 00:00:22,480 --> 00:00:24,920 Speaker 2: of last week. There are some senators still in town 9 00:00:25,000 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 2: waiting maybe for something to happen on a deal with 10 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 2: the border. But the language we heard, despite a flurry 11 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:35,199 Speaker 2: of negotiating over the weekend, does not sound great. Not 12 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 2: that this has been derailed, but the idea of it 13 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:39,280 Speaker 2: happening by the end of the year might be a 14 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:42,520 Speaker 2: bit of a stretch. And that's not good news for Ukraine, 15 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 2: which of course would be forced to wait for funding 16 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 2: that's been requested now for some time. And as I 17 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 2: read on the terminal, a new warning from the Pentagon, 18 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 2: a letter just obtained from Bloomberg News before we talked 19 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 2: to Melinda Herring. It's very important. The Pentagon says it 20 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 2: will run out of money, and we knew this from 21 00:00:57,480 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 2: Shland Young at the administration that the end of the 22 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 2: year would not be good for financing Ukraine. But now 23 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:06,160 Speaker 2: we have details. We have a level of detail we 24 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:09,000 Speaker 2: did not have before. Pentagon will run out of money 25 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 2: to replace weapons sent to Ukraine by December thirty, unless, 26 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:18,200 Speaker 2: of course, some miracle happened on Capitol Hill spending now 27 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 2: the last one billion dollars to buy new weapons and 28 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:24,720 Speaker 2: equipment that will replace those drawn down from stockpiles and 29 00:01:24,800 --> 00:01:27,280 Speaker 2: sent to Ukraine. This is from the Pentagon controller at 30 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 2: December fifteen. Letter that we have obtained says that on 31 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:35,840 Speaker 2: December thirty, fifteen days after this letter was sent, its 32 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 2: accounts will be empty. Now. That was the message over 33 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:43,240 Speaker 2: the weekend from Chris Van Holland, the Democratic Senator from Maryland, 34 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:47,119 Speaker 2: on ABC this week, without necessarily those details, but certainly 35 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 2: the same spirit here. 36 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:50,920 Speaker 3: He is we need to make sure that we help 37 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 3: our Ukrainian friends against Putin's aggression, not just to protect 38 00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 3: their freedom, but because it would send a terrible signal 39 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 3: around the world to our allies who no longer trust us, 40 00:02:01,680 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 3: and to our adversaries who would be in Bolden if 41 00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 3: we're not doing that. 42 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:09,080 Speaker 2: That's where we begin our conversation with Melinda Herring, and 43 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:11,040 Speaker 2: I have a lot more questions for Melinda than just 44 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 2: beyond this, but quite a starting point for us here, 45 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:18,640 Speaker 2: of course, a voice of assurance and authority on this topic, 46 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:21,000 Speaker 2: and has been with us talking about this since the 47 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 2: very beginning, the very early stages of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 48 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:30,839 Speaker 2: Senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center and back 49 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 2: with us now live on Bloomberg Sound On. Melinda, It's 50 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 2: great to see you. You have a date to circle 51 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 2: now on the calendar. What does that mean in your 52 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:41,240 Speaker 2: calculation as you watch the lack of action here on Washington. 53 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:43,799 Speaker 4: Hey, Joe, thanks for having me back. 54 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:45,640 Speaker 5: So I'm fresh in from Kiev and I think I 55 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 5: still have those sort of Ukraine goggles on, and it's 56 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:52,880 Speaker 5: really scary. There is a lot of gratitude in Ukraine 57 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:56,800 Speaker 5: for everything that Washington has done, but there's also frustration. 58 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:01,440 Speaker 5: I think that folks in Ukraine don't understand how desperate 59 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:04,839 Speaker 5: the situation is. So there's not enough Ammo, and that's 60 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:08,959 Speaker 5: been well documented. There's not enough men. It's cold, it's winter, 61 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 5: and what Washington does, others will do. So I think 62 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 5: all eyes are on Congress, but it looks like this 63 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:18,360 Speaker 5: is going to get pushed back to January, and we 64 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:21,680 Speaker 5: know the longer this goes on, the more likely it's 65 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 5: going to be difficult to pass. And frankly, it's not 66 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:28,920 Speaker 5: really a Ukraine issue anymore. The Congress is not going 67 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 5: to move until this National security bill, this border issue 68 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 5: is resolved. So it's up to it's incumbent on the 69 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 5: White House to make this happen. If they really want 70 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 5: to make sure that Ukraine can win the war. 71 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 2: Well, if this is a month, if you're right, and 72 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 2: a lot of folks seem to think that could happen, Melinda, 73 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 2: there's a deal on the border. Maybe over the holidays, 74 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:52,120 Speaker 2: lawmakers come back, they pass the bill and get it done. 75 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 2: Money goes to Ukraine. Maybe late January February, I think 76 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:57,839 Speaker 2: is kind of the timeline you're working on there. Did 77 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:01,040 Speaker 2: we just send them enough in this latest billion apparently 78 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 2: last for now billion dollar trunch to get them through 79 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 2: that period of time. 80 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:06,800 Speaker 4: I don't know exactly. 81 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:08,560 Speaker 5: I don't have the numbers in front of you, Joe, 82 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 5: but what I do know is that there's not enough ammunition, 83 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 5: and the Ukrainians announced today they don't have enough Soviet ammunition, 84 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 5: and this is something they've been pleading and begging for. 85 00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:20,560 Speaker 5: The Europeans promised to put supply chains in place to 86 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:23,279 Speaker 5: build the ammunition they needed. The United States also promised 87 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:25,919 Speaker 5: to put those things in place, and it hasn't happened. 88 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:30,200 Speaker 5: So we're months and years behind the reality on the ground, 89 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:34,839 Speaker 5: and it's going to cause commanders and generals in Ukraine 90 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:37,360 Speaker 5: to have to make decisions that they don't want to make. 91 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:40,520 Speaker 5: It's going to limit their military options. So the decisions 92 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:44,159 Speaker 5: that we're making here in Washington have real life consequences 93 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:46,760 Speaker 5: for Ukrainian soldiers. But I think let's broaden this a bit. 94 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 5: This is not just about Ukraine. You and I have 95 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:52,120 Speaker 5: talked about this a dozen times. What happens in Ukraine 96 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:55,919 Speaker 5: doesn't stay in Ukraine. That's why it's so crucial to 97 00:04:55,960 --> 00:04:58,599 Speaker 5: get these funds to Ukraine and the broader picture too. 98 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 4: Also in Europe. We saw last. 99 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:05,680 Speaker 5: Week orbon Is vetoing an enormous fifty four billion dollars 100 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:08,360 Speaker 5: from the EU and that's the money that keeps the 101 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:12,719 Speaker 5: state afloat. So Ukraine, the situation Ukraine is precarious on 102 00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 5: a number of different levels. 103 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 2: This is so much to ask you about here, Melinda. 104 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:19,640 Speaker 2: Before I get to that EU funding, talk to me 105 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:22,240 Speaker 2: more about this supply chain, because this has been in 106 00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:26,159 Speaker 2: the air essentially since the first batch of weapons we 107 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:28,920 Speaker 2: sent because we knew it would be difficult to replace them. 108 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:32,360 Speaker 2: We don't have the supply chain or the manufacturing chain 109 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:35,320 Speaker 2: here in the US to take care of ourselves, never 110 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:38,840 Speaker 2: mind Ukraine. And you've just pointed to an important promise 111 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:42,160 Speaker 2: from our European allies as well. What should be up 112 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:44,599 Speaker 2: and running right now? What do we need to build? 113 00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 5: So the Europeans and the Americans need to basically move 114 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:53,920 Speaker 5: to a war footing in terms of getting the Ukrainians 115 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:56,240 Speaker 5: the kind of shells they need. The Ukrainians have been 116 00:05:56,360 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 5: very explicit Joe on these are the sort of precision 117 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:00,360 Speaker 5: weapons we need. 118 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:02,479 Speaker 4: These are the right AMMO we need. 119 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:06,479 Speaker 5: And it's a complicated process and we haven't put we 120 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:08,880 Speaker 5: haven't put it in place. So you know, if we 121 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 5: want Ukraine to win the war, President Biden has the 122 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:16,200 Speaker 5: authority to make this happen. European governments can stand this up. 123 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:19,880 Speaker 5: It's really a question of political will. 124 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:23,200 Speaker 2: The ask from the White House is roughly sixty billion 125 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:26,680 Speaker 2: dollars most of which actually would be invested here in 126 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 2: the US in our own defense contractors. But you pointed 127 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 2: out the EU. That's fifty five billion dollars, Melinda, and 128 00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 2: the EU now will hold a special summit I read 129 00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:41,279 Speaker 2: on the first of February to discuss this four year 130 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:44,440 Speaker 2: funding package which is being held up by opposition from 131 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:47,719 Speaker 2: Victor Orbon of all people. How important is that money 132 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 2: when we try to frame the urgency around the request 133 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:53,680 Speaker 2: here in the US, where would this money go? And 134 00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 2: how badly does Ukraine need it now? 135 00:06:57,320 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 5: So desperately is the right word. There's three categories of aid. 136 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:03,679 Speaker 5: There's the military assistance, and the US is the leader 137 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:07,039 Speaker 5: on that. We've done an awesome job. We haven't done enough. 138 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 5: We've been way too slow, especially on the AMO side, 139 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:13,040 Speaker 5: and we haven't sent enough weapons. When I was in 140 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:15,440 Speaker 5: Key of last week, I met with a parliamentarian and 141 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 5: he said, thank you for the attack. I'ms but thirty 142 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 5: five give me a break, like we need hundreds. We 143 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:23,679 Speaker 5: need as many as possible. So there's the military side, 144 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 5: there's the economics side, and the EU has been the 145 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 5: leader on this. And this is the money that keeps 146 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:32,120 Speaker 5: the state alive. It keeps the railways going, it keeps 147 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:35,840 Speaker 5: homes lit, it keeps pensions paid. This is really important 148 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 5: and the EU has been the leader on this. So 149 00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 5: if the EU can't get this through, it's gonna make 150 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 5: it much much harder for Ukraine as a state to exist. 151 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:47,000 Speaker 5: And then the third bucket is the humanitarian assistance. 152 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 2: Manpower is something that you mentioned and we talked about 153 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 2: this when you were just back last week. It's not 154 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 2: just men to fight, young strong men to fight, but 155 00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 2: just people to help with this response and to keep 156 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 2: society going here. Melinda put that in perspective for us. 157 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 4: Sure, so, Joe. 158 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 5: In October, I went out to Zepparisia, which is one 159 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:18,840 Speaker 5: of the provinces that Vladimir Putin claims he now belongs 160 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 5: to Russia, and I spoke to a number of people, 161 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:25,920 Speaker 5: and the feeling there among Ukrainian soldiers is that we 162 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:28,640 Speaker 5: Ukrainian soldiers, who have been fighting for more than six 163 00:08:28,720 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 5: hundred days, are sticking our necks out, and all of 164 00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 5: society in Ukraine is not helping. Some people are having 165 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 5: normal lives and they haven't done enough, and that there 166 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:42,320 Speaker 5: needs to be a bigger mobilization and that President Zelensky 167 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:44,840 Speaker 5: needs to put the economy on a war footing, and 168 00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 5: everyone needs to be contributing so that the war can 169 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:50,040 Speaker 5: be ended as soon as possible. I've heard that sentiment 170 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 5: again and again, and I would say that that's growing 171 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:54,400 Speaker 5: frustration in Ukraine. 172 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:59,760 Speaker 2: Right now, we're spending time with Melinda Herring from the 173 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:04,080 Speaker 2: Atlantic Council amid this debate in Washington on whether to 174 00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:07,960 Speaker 2: or how to, or to what extent the US should 175 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 2: be funding Ukraine. President Zelenski was here not that long ago, 176 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:16,880 Speaker 2: while you were in Kiev. As a matter of fact, Melinda, 177 00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:21,000 Speaker 2: he understands the debate here in the United States, the 178 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 2: political element here domestically that's impacting funding for his own country. 179 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:29,000 Speaker 2: What do people in Kiev say about this? 180 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 5: What do people in Kiev say about Zelenski's visit. I 181 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:35,199 Speaker 5: think they're glad. 182 00:09:34,960 --> 00:09:37,640 Speaker 2: That the fact that we're holding this up actually on 183 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:40,440 Speaker 2: our own border dispute. That's something that he's aware of. 184 00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:42,960 Speaker 2: He's a politician, he's in touch with Joe Biden. But 185 00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:47,000 Speaker 2: what are people walking around Kiev say about securing the 186 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:47,959 Speaker 2: border in al Paso? 187 00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:53,440 Speaker 5: They're so confused Joe that they're like, why are you 188 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 5: guys conflating the two, what do these have to do 189 00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 5: with each other? And the answer is, we don't know, 190 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:01,880 Speaker 5: they're not are totally unrelated. And then you know, I 191 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 5: have to explain wonderful American domestic politics that this is 192 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 5: a way to get something that the GOP wants and 193 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:12,320 Speaker 5: give Biden a black eye. But in Ukraine, when there's 194 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:15,320 Speaker 5: air sirens, you know, in the front lines, when when 195 00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:18,320 Speaker 5: it's a matter of life and death, this feels really silly. 196 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:23,080 Speaker 5: It's really hard to explain how petty the politics are here. 197 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:24,480 Speaker 4: In a war zone. 198 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:28,920 Speaker 2: General Mark Kimmett here on this program me Linda suggested 199 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:31,200 Speaker 2: that if there was a lapse in funding, if that 200 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:33,560 Speaker 2: had to happen, that landing in the middle of a 201 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:35,880 Speaker 2: bitter cold winter might in fact be the best time 202 00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 2: for it to us fighting begins to slow down. I 203 00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 2: wonder if you agree with that, knowing the hell that 204 00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:43,959 Speaker 2: Ukrainian soldiers are about to go through. 205 00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:49,320 Speaker 5: I think that the General has a point, Joe, So 206 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:52,920 Speaker 5: I don't agree on humanitarian assistance, but on military assistance, 207 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 5: if you have to pick a point to slow it down, 208 00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:57,480 Speaker 5: sure that that make that makes sense. 209 00:10:57,600 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 4: And we're at a bit of a lull right now. 210 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 5: It's still a hot war, but it's you know, there's 211 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 5: limited options you have during during a winter period. But 212 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:11,079 Speaker 5: from a humanitarian perspective, you know, if you can't heat homes, 213 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:13,959 Speaker 5: if you don't have water, if the trains can't run, 214 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:17,959 Speaker 5: if you can't pay pensions and it's twenty degrees, you're 215 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:19,880 Speaker 5: going to have a big humanitarian crisis. And I think 216 00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:22,439 Speaker 5: the bigger point is that's what Vladimir Putin wants. 217 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:24,319 Speaker 4: You know, we discussed this many times. 218 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 5: What was the rocket strategy last year that Putin threw 219 00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 5: all over Ukraine? And it was to try to create 220 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 5: a massive migration and scare the hell out of people 221 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:35,080 Speaker 5: so that they would. 222 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:38,559 Speaker 4: Leave and go to go to Europe. And he did 223 00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:39,480 Speaker 4: not accomplish that. 224 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 5: So you know, in some ways Putin is getting what 225 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:45,239 Speaker 5: he wants, sort of pieced by a piece and incrementally. 226 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 5: And if I have to sum up where I think 227 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 5: we are, I think this is the strategy. He doesn't 228 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 5: have to unleash this horrible, super aggressive rocket strategy. If 229 00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:56,520 Speaker 5: you look at the number of rockets he's shooting this 230 00:11:56,600 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 5: year compared to last year, the number is quite a 231 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:02,120 Speaker 5: bit lower. And I think Putin thinks he has the 232 00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:06,119 Speaker 5: West in Ukraine exactly where he wants us. He's very tactical, 233 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 5: and he's very patient, and he thinks that he cares 234 00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:11,240 Speaker 5: more about Ukraine than the West does. 235 00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 2: Wow. Chilling analysis from Melinda Herring. Melinda, thank you for 236 00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:21,440 Speaker 2: your first hand accounts and your insights today. As always, 237 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:23,840 Speaker 2: I look forward to these conversations. You's senior fellow at 238 00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:26,440 Speaker 2: the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center. We Linda Herring with us 239 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:29,319 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg. So some of the panel, so Rick 240 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:31,120 Speaker 2: and Jenie can take a swing at what we have here. 241 00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:34,719 Speaker 2: Our signature panel is back today Bloomberg Politics Contributors. Rick, 242 00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:37,440 Speaker 2: there was some skepticism, maybe I can use that word 243 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:39,400 Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill when the White House sent a letter 244 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:43,640 Speaker 2: about when Ukraine funding would run out. Here, now we've 245 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:46,560 Speaker 2: got it from the Pentagon, does that create any new urgency? 246 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:49,680 Speaker 6: Yeah, I think it's a little bit more urgency. It's 247 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:52,680 Speaker 6: not like the Senate negotiators don't already know that. Maybe 248 00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:54,559 Speaker 6: puts a little pressure on the House guys as they 249 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:57,680 Speaker 6: are at home having to explained this to their constituents. 250 00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 6: But it also, you know, Ford tells a story about 251 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:04,040 Speaker 6: how equipped is the Department Offense and the Biden administration 252 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 6: in being able to support this to begin with. I mean, 253 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 6: we just heard from Melinda about, you know, how frustrated 254 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:12,960 Speaker 6: the Ukrainians have been about not getting enough weapons systems 255 00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 6: on time, you know, to be able to fight the 256 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:18,080 Speaker 6: war that they're trying to fight. And I think the 257 00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:20,960 Speaker 6: Biden administration has to really calibrate are they really ready 258 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:25,520 Speaker 6: to support this, especially if there's not an immediate funding 259 00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:27,319 Speaker 6: between now and the end of the year. 260 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:31,800 Speaker 2: Does a letter like this matter, Genie, when the whole 261 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:33,680 Speaker 2: thing rides on a border deal. 262 00:13:35,160 --> 00:13:36,000 Speaker 4: It does matter. 263 00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:38,120 Speaker 7: But you know, I thought what Melinda said to you, 264 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:41,440 Speaker 7: which was so chilling, was not only the description of 265 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:43,400 Speaker 7: the cold and the lack of men and the lack 266 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 7: of ammunition, but the confusion of Ukrainians. I mean, there's 267 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:51,160 Speaker 7: confusion for Americans, but imagine the confusion for Ukrainians thinking 268 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:55,800 Speaker 7: that their future depends on a border deal between the 269 00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:59,559 Speaker 7: US and Mexico to address a problem that has been 270 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:03,080 Speaker 7: vexing US for decades. So you can just really really 271 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:06,960 Speaker 7: feel their pain and frustration on this. And yet as 272 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 7: we look at what's happening in Congress and we're going 273 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 7: to talk about that, it doesn't sound like they're going 274 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:13,720 Speaker 7: to get any at least in the short term, any 275 00:14:13,800 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 7: relief or any clarification or clarity on that, and it's 276 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:19,120 Speaker 7: got to be just, you know, god awful for them 277 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 7: sitting over there watching this. 278 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:22,840 Speaker 2: Well, Genie is right, We're gonna flip the coin on 279 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:25,080 Speaker 2: this talk about the border deal or lack thereof. 280 00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 1: Next on Bloomberg, you're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. 281 00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:34,520 Speaker 1: Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, 282 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:37,440 Speaker 1: the tune in alf Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg 283 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:40,760 Speaker 1: Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa 284 00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:44,200 Speaker 1: from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play 285 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:45,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven thirty. 286 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 2: So, as I mentioned, the Senators are still kicking around Washington. 287 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 2: I mean, I guess it's a pretty good time to 288 00:14:50,960 --> 00:14:53,320 Speaker 2: be here. They've got the Christmas Tree up across the street, 289 00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:56,600 Speaker 2: the city center there, the Capitol Tree is pretty nice, 290 00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:59,440 Speaker 2: and you can park kind of anywhere right now, maybe 291 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:01,760 Speaker 2: get a table at your favorite restaurant. The problem is 292 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:05,200 Speaker 2: the border deal they were supposed to be sticking around 293 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:09,280 Speaker 2: for does not appear to be emerging, and that may 294 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 2: be all right, considering the fact that you know, for 295 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:14,360 Speaker 2: the last twenty or thirty years we haven't been able 296 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:17,360 Speaker 2: to get this done. So another five minutes. Maybe this 297 00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 2: leeds into January, if you ask Lindsey Graham. And of 298 00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 2: course all this at the expense of the people of Ukraine. 299 00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:25,360 Speaker 2: As we were just discussing with Melinda and the panel, 300 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 2: Lindsay Graham on Sunday Morning TV says, don't hold your breath. 301 00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:31,560 Speaker 8: Well, I think this will go into next year. I've 302 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 8: been talking to the people at the table. The White 303 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 8: House got engaged five days ago. They sent over a 304 00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:43,000 Speaker 8: supplemental with border security provisions that did nothing to change policy. 305 00:15:43,520 --> 00:15:46,200 Speaker 8: We've been talking to him since September, five days ago. 306 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:49,080 Speaker 8: They finally said at this table, Sarah Lankfort's doing a 307 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:52,920 Speaker 8: good job. The bottom line here is we feel like 308 00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:56,000 Speaker 8: we're being jammed. We're not anywhere close to a deal. 309 00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:57,640 Speaker 8: It'll go into next year. 310 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 2: Talk about being jammed now. Interesting as we hear from 311 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:09,800 Speaker 2: the players at the table, James Langford, Chris Murphy, kirston Cinema, 312 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:12,880 Speaker 2: they say they're making progress, but look, there's a lot 313 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 2: of details here, even on the big strokes. Behind all 314 00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:19,560 Speaker 2: of them, there are great details. Mitch McConnell and Senator Langford, 315 00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 2: by the way, send a note to colleagues. You know, 316 00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:24,240 Speaker 2: remember we talked about the Dear Colleague letter. It's never 317 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:27,440 Speaker 2: good in this case, his Republicans will not be rushed 318 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:30,760 Speaker 2: to a deal this week. And if Chuck Schumer moves 319 00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:33,760 Speaker 2: forward with plans for a procedural vote as he promised 320 00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:38,560 Speaker 2: to quote, it would not succeed unquote. So let's reassemble 321 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:40,800 Speaker 2: the panel for their take. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzino, 322 00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 2: of course, with us here Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick, I 323 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:47,680 Speaker 2: don't know where we're going here. Everyone could look like 324 00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:50,040 Speaker 2: a genius. If a deal emerges, say the first or 325 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 2: second week of January, how much space should we give them? 326 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 6: Yeah, look, I mean you're gonna have to give them 327 00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:58,960 Speaker 6: whatever space you can because it's the only game in town. 328 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 6: And I think the Deer College letter was just a 329 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 6: rearguard action to try and keep some of the caucus, 330 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:07,239 Speaker 6: like Lindsey Graham quiet because they've been upset that they 331 00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 6: don't know the details of this negotiation. So look, anytime 332 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:13,639 Speaker 6: you have a group of people, especially a triparty negotiation 333 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 6: like this with Cinema and Langford and Murphy a Democrat, 334 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 6: a Republican and an independent, all trying to negotiate a deal. 335 00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 6: Everybody in those other caucuses, the ours and the d's, 336 00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 6: are going to feel left out and concerned. And so 337 00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:29,800 Speaker 6: all of a sudden, Biden comes in there and starts saying, Hey, 338 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:31,399 Speaker 6: you know, we got to really get this done for 339 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 6: the for the you know, people of Israel, for the 340 00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 6: people of Ukraine, for our southern border. 341 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:38,159 Speaker 9: You know, then they're going to feel jammed. 342 00:17:39,520 --> 00:17:41,119 Speaker 6: My own view, I think the White House ought to 343 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:43,400 Speaker 6: turns time and attention on the Democrats, get them say 344 00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:46,240 Speaker 6: yes to a deal. It's much more important, frankly, for 345 00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:48,840 Speaker 6: the Democrats to get a deal than it is for 346 00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:52,560 Speaker 6: Republicans right now. But bottom line is sure doesn't sound 347 00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:55,480 Speaker 6: like a deal's eminent. And so we're talking about a 348 00:17:55,640 --> 00:18:00,280 Speaker 6: completely insane January, considering all the things that come they're 349 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:02,840 Speaker 6: going to have to do within thirty days of coming 350 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:05,199 Speaker 6: back on the eighth of January. 351 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:07,960 Speaker 2: I say we just go to Des Moines. We'll hide there, 352 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 2: Rick and Jennie until this is sorted out. I don't know, Genie, 353 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:13,520 Speaker 2: I want to hear from you on this let's say 354 00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:17,159 Speaker 2: Joe Biden does start calling Democrats. I don't know what 355 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:20,000 Speaker 2: progress he can make without something a little bit more 356 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:24,240 Speaker 2: detailed to sell. But you hear Lindsey Graham, there a 357 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 2: lot of backhands at the White House. Hey, they just 358 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:30,080 Speaker 2: started five days ago. Should Joe Biden have gotten on 359 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:30,640 Speaker 2: this earlier? 360 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, I have to agree on that. I 361 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:38,680 Speaker 7: think the White House needed to be present earlier on this, 362 00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:42,120 Speaker 7: But quite frankly that said, I'm not sure it would 363 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:45,159 Speaker 7: have helped. He's got a real problem on his hands. 364 00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:48,120 Speaker 7: Number One, he decided to put all of this forward 365 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:51,840 Speaker 7: in one big lump, and of course you're talking about 366 00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:55,120 Speaker 7: some of the most vexing problems. And while it made 367 00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 7: sense in one perspective, if this thing doesn't turn out 368 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:01,119 Speaker 7: where there's going to be a lot of rethinking about 369 00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:03,880 Speaker 7: this approach, and so I think the White House has 370 00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:06,760 Speaker 7: got to own that part of it. Of Course, the 371 00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:11,640 Speaker 7: incentives for Republicans to do anything on the border at 372 00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:15,120 Speaker 7: this point are nil, and we're we heard from from 373 00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:19,119 Speaker 7: Donald Trump over the weekend. Does anybody think he is 374 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:23,320 Speaker 7: going to help make this an easy vote for any Republicans? 375 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:26,280 Speaker 7: You know, that's the reality. He doesn't want anything on 376 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:28,440 Speaker 7: the border a deal for Biden. He also doesn't want 377 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:31,600 Speaker 7: to support Ukraine. You couple that with what's happening on 378 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,919 Speaker 7: the left. Progressives don't want Biden to give away the store. 379 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:38,959 Speaker 7: So this is a huge enormous challenge. And you know, 380 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:43,320 Speaker 7: January eighth, Langford is saying they might have something to do. 381 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:47,000 Speaker 4: Well, they've got a lot to do. They return, there's. 382 00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:50,639 Speaker 7: The Iowa Caucus for funding before four departments run out 383 00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:53,439 Speaker 7: of money. On the nineteenth, the twenty ninth we of this, 384 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 7: we have New Hampshire and then right after that the 385 00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 7: rest of the government runs out of funding. So the 386 00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:01,399 Speaker 7: idea that you're going to fix of the border in 387 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:05,000 Speaker 7: any kind of concerted way in those couple weeks is 388 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:07,000 Speaker 7: really really tough to imagine. 389 00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:10,600 Speaker 2: At this point, I shouldn't be laughing, but just listening 390 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:13,760 Speaker 2: to you two guys described January, I'm taking the month off. 391 00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:17,840 Speaker 2: You know, Rick Gen brings up a really interesting point here, 392 00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:19,680 Speaker 2: and that's Donald Trump, because I don't know which way 393 00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:23,639 Speaker 2: this cuts. We understand now that he is in regular talks, 394 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:27,639 Speaker 2: He's in regular contact with Speaker Mike Johnson. So what 395 00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:31,720 Speaker 2: happens if Donald Trump tells Republicans to vote against the deal. 396 00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:36,399 Speaker 6: Yeah, I think that it just depends upon what the 397 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:39,480 Speaker 6: terms of the bill's going to be. First of all, 398 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:41,600 Speaker 6: getting Mike Johnson to put it on this calendar will 399 00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,280 Speaker 6: be number one. If there's a Senate deal, it'll go 400 00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:49,439 Speaker 6: on to the House calendar. The question is will it 401 00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:53,040 Speaker 6: be a bipartisan vote. Typically it would be a bypartisan vote. 402 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:56,480 Speaker 6: We've seen over three hundred members willing to support these 403 00:20:56,600 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 6: kinds of transactions. It doesn't really matter what the Freedom 404 00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 6: Caucus thinks about this or Donald Trump if you have 405 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 6: two hundred Democrats voting with you. So look, I think 406 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:12,000 Speaker 6: that the House is going to take care of itself. 407 00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 6: Donald Trump is lobbying against Ukraine funding, He's lobbying against 408 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,879 Speaker 6: funding for the border. The last thing he wants to 409 00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:21,639 Speaker 6: do is these things become Republican orthodoxy, because he's way 410 00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:26,879 Speaker 6: outside of the normal Republican level of support for these things. 411 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 9: Even the public. 412 00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:33,399 Speaker 6: Republicans support it more than Donald Trump does. So the 413 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:35,000 Speaker 6: last thing he wants to do is have to react 414 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:37,680 Speaker 6: to this when he's fighting away. As Genie said in 415 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 6: Iowa on the fifteenth and the twenty third in New Hampshire, 416 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 6: these are not things he's going to spend time talking about. 417 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,040 Speaker 9: So I don't know. 418 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:51,000 Speaker 6: I mean, it's it'll be interesting because if the House 419 00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 6: does take it up and it keeps it as an 420 00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:56,960 Speaker 6: open vote, I think it could be an incredible rebuke 421 00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:59,359 Speaker 6: to Donald Trump at the hands of you know, his 422 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,320 Speaker 6: sort of you know, favorite speaker today. 423 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:05,520 Speaker 2: Well, it would be, which is why I am deeply 424 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:09,159 Speaker 2: curious about that. And I think to your point, Genie, 425 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,080 Speaker 2: he's not going to like anything that comes up here 426 00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:13,040 Speaker 2: that doesn't involve a wall with his name on it. 427 00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:16,199 Speaker 2: I didn't know if I should bring this up or not. 428 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:18,720 Speaker 2: I've got to ask you both about this. A little 429 00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:21,720 Speaker 2: scandal that came up over the weekend. A Senate staffer 430 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:24,879 Speaker 2: is out of a job. Stafford a Senator Ben Cardon 431 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:29,919 Speaker 2: after recording a graphic sex tape. This is real in 432 00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 2: the historic Heart two sixteen hearing room, the encounter will 433 00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:38,720 Speaker 2: say happen on the dais the Daily caller out with 434 00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:42,760 Speaker 2: tapes over the weekend. I'm just wondering if this is done. 435 00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:45,880 Speaker 2: I have to ask you guys about it. Our listeners 436 00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:48,600 Speaker 2: and viewers I don't think would forgive me if I didn't. 437 00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:51,879 Speaker 2: This is all I heard about for half the weekend, Genie. 438 00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:54,359 Speaker 2: Does there need to be an investigation? Or he got fired? 439 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:57,480 Speaker 2: So let's move on because this won't help the way 440 00:22:57,520 --> 00:22:59,480 Speaker 2: people look at the hill. 441 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:02,879 Speaker 7: I wish you had gone to Rick Davis on this first, 442 00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,080 Speaker 7: because he's he's going to have a lot to say 443 00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:08,760 Speaker 7: on the No, you know, I think he fired. He 444 00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:11,439 Speaker 7: should have been fired. You know, obviously I did not 445 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:13,960 Speaker 7: see the tapes, assuming they are real, and there does 446 00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:17,040 Speaker 7: need to be an investigation, because my gosh, is our 447 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:19,800 Speaker 7: government buildings just open for these kinds of things? 448 00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:21,439 Speaker 9: Where well, that's the question. 449 00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:24,680 Speaker 7: It's baffling to me that this could happen. I kept 450 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:27,000 Speaker 7: thinking it was a deep fake. I'm not saying it was, 451 00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:29,199 Speaker 7: but I sort of hope it was. But I have 452 00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:30,800 Speaker 7: no evidence that it opened it was. 453 00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:35,560 Speaker 2: That's the question this is. I'm going to him right now. Look, 454 00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:37,280 Speaker 2: I mean, there's a lot of SALATIONIOU stuff you could 455 00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:40,080 Speaker 2: talk about here. But are we to believe that all 456 00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:43,800 Speaker 2: these rooms are open for access? This is same room 457 00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:48,840 Speaker 2: played host of Supreme Court nominees nine to eleven commission hearings. 458 00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:51,879 Speaker 2: This is right where Senator Chris Coons was sitting for 459 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:53,760 Speaker 2: crying out loud. Should we be concerned? 460 00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:56,760 Speaker 9: Uh, I don't think you have to be. 461 00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:59,320 Speaker 6: Too concerned about staffers going into hearing rooms. 462 00:23:59,400 --> 00:23:59,560 Speaker 1: Right. 463 00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,879 Speaker 6: This was, you know, just a couple of people walking 464 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:05,399 Speaker 6: through the Capitol on a tour and decide to have sex. 465 00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I hear them. 466 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:07,600 Speaker 9: That'd be one thing. 467 00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:11,200 Speaker 6: I'd be more concerned about the cleanliness of that hearing 468 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:13,480 Speaker 6: room the next time they stake a seat on that diet. 469 00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:17,680 Speaker 2: I hope this is a real effort to do that. 470 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 2: We'll move on from here, but my goodness, someone need 471 00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,760 Speaker 2: to call the sergeant at arms. You're both very graceful 472 00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:26,640 Speaker 2: with that. By the way, I just you know, everyone's 473 00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:30,080 Speaker 2: kicking out this wholemade video. What do the Capitol police have? 474 00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:33,120 Speaker 2: Aren't there cameras in all these rooms? I digress. 475 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:39,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 476 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:42,600 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 477 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,760 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on 478 00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:47,840 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 479 00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:52,800 Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington alongside Kaylee Lines, and as 480 00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,040 Speaker 2: I mentioned, Kaye, there are a couple folks left. A 481 00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:58,000 Speaker 2: couple senators are knocking around. They were hoping to get 482 00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:00,199 Speaker 2: you a deal on the border. It's looking like that 483 00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:03,920 Speaker 2: would take a Christmas miracle. But there are a couple 484 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:06,199 Speaker 2: of other things they might need to get done. What 485 00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:08,639 Speaker 2: do we have military promotions in the air eleven of 486 00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:12,120 Speaker 2: them four stars. This brings us back to the Tubberville blockade. 487 00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:16,080 Speaker 2: And then there's the matter of the FAA reauthorization. 488 00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,359 Speaker 10: Which has to be done by your right so. 489 00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:20,440 Speaker 2: It could be a pretty short menu by the time they're. 490 00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:23,000 Speaker 11: Done an extension on f a A, which is what 491 00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:24,080 Speaker 11: I hear they're going to do, right. 492 00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:29,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, that was like a stealth introduction that I can. 493 00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:30,919 Speaker 11: Never I can't never tell the difference between radio and 494 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:32,399 Speaker 11: TV radio. 495 00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:34,440 Speaker 2: We can't either because now they're all the same. 496 00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:35,240 Speaker 9: But Kaylee, I thought they. 497 00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:37,199 Speaker 11: Could do an f a A extension until March or 498 00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:40,240 Speaker 11: April by the end of the year, not a full reauthor. 499 00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:42,760 Speaker 2: It would be a short term kick it to next year. 500 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:43,879 Speaker 2: Will figure out then, right. 501 00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:44,480 Speaker 10: As they like to do. 502 00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:47,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, mcny cannon balls into the pool. 503 00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:51,199 Speaker 9: I just thought we were chatting. 504 00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:52,800 Speaker 2: Of course we don't. I mean, do we need to 505 00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:54,880 Speaker 2: tell everyone every week? It's no acting. 506 00:25:55,359 --> 00:26:01,280 Speaker 11: No, that was chess Club president high School, a lot 507 00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:03,720 Speaker 11: from the obviously there learnt a lot of members of 508 00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 11: the clubs. 509 00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:06,119 Speaker 2: We're not getting a deal this week, right, can we 510 00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:06,520 Speaker 2: just go? 511 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:09,760 Speaker 11: So I don't be on that when you know, granted, 512 00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:12,480 Speaker 11: anything can change at any time, and any politician tells 513 00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:15,000 Speaker 11: you they know exactly what's going on, you can completely 514 00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:18,080 Speaker 11: you know, mostly throughout the window. So when Lindsay says, 515 00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:19,919 Speaker 11: Lindsay Graham says, you know, we're not going to get 516 00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:21,679 Speaker 11: a deal this week, I think I might not get 517 00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:24,040 Speaker 11: a deal this week. But if you get a deal tomorrow, 518 00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:25,760 Speaker 11: they'll be the first one to say, oh yea, I 519 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:27,960 Speaker 11: always knew were going to get a deal, so that 520 00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:30,159 Speaker 11: I always take that with a great assault. I just 521 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:32,320 Speaker 11: don't get the feeling, especially. 522 00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:33,359 Speaker 9: With the house gone now. 523 00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:36,960 Speaker 11: Can you imagine the new speaker bringing the house back 524 00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:37,560 Speaker 11: this week? 525 00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:41,040 Speaker 9: Really really really hard to do? What to have a deal? 526 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:43,480 Speaker 2: They could come back too? Might be correct? 527 00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,840 Speaker 11: Yeah, well yeah, if you're deadline and how hard is 528 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,120 Speaker 11: the is the December thirty first deadline? Really I think 529 00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:52,320 Speaker 11: that's a that's a that's having on Ukraine funding. 530 00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:54,840 Speaker 9: Okay, you know I've been watching the show, yeah. 531 00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:58,640 Speaker 11: From the green room, and I'm trying to articulate exactly 532 00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:01,840 Speaker 11: We're trying to say something without sounding like I'm being nasty. 533 00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:03,879 Speaker 11: So I'm gonna put myself in the role of omb. 534 00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:05,679 Speaker 11: Who are the folks who came out and said the 535 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:08,280 Speaker 11: money runs out on December thirtieth. If I was still 536 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:11,040 Speaker 11: at OMB and Nancy Pelosi was in charge of the 537 00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:13,240 Speaker 11: House and I put out a press release and said 538 00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:15,760 Speaker 11: the money for Ukraine is gonna run out of December thirtieth, 539 00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:18,520 Speaker 11: and she didn't want to give any money Ukraine, she 540 00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,919 Speaker 11: would completely ignore it as a partisan hack, sort of 541 00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:26,000 Speaker 11: using my office to advance a political like she'd throw 542 00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:26,399 Speaker 11: it away. 543 00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:26,879 Speaker 9: As what it comes down now. 544 00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:30,760 Speaker 11: But if it's from DODA, same thing, same thing, especially 545 00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:32,120 Speaker 11: if it's the Trump DoD right. 546 00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:36,359 Speaker 9: I mean, so is politics in everything? Yeah? It is 547 00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:37,800 Speaker 9: the issue on funny Ukraine? Real? 548 00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:41,560 Speaker 11: Yes, I'm not sure how seriously the members of Congress 549 00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:44,399 Speaker 11: look at those deadlines and say, okay, is that a 550 00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:46,240 Speaker 11: real deadline or is there a couple of days in there. 551 00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:48,760 Speaker 11: There's really not much difference, is there between January fourth 552 00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:49,879 Speaker 11: and December twenty seventh? 553 00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:51,200 Speaker 9: And they're probably right. 554 00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,520 Speaker 10: Well, except that Bloomberg obtained a letter from the Pentagon 555 00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:55,560 Speaker 10: that says it's December thirtieth, there's going to be no 556 00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:59,280 Speaker 10: more money. So there is that, But I also feel 557 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:01,600 Speaker 10: like the Senate, it seems like it's taking the deadline 558 00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:04,880 Speaker 10: more seriously, right Chuck Schumer kept people around. These negotiators 559 00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:06,840 Speaker 10: are still in the room, they're talking to the White House. 560 00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:09,680 Speaker 10: Should the House be involved in these conversations if ultimately 561 00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:10,960 Speaker 10: this is going to be a bill the House has 562 00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:13,240 Speaker 10: to pass too. I just wonder if everyone's going to 563 00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:15,240 Speaker 10: work so hard to come to a deal and then 564 00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:16,720 Speaker 10: not all parties agree to it. 565 00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:18,720 Speaker 9: Yeah, I think in a perfect world that would be 566 00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:19,320 Speaker 9: the way it works. 567 00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:22,159 Speaker 11: Keep in mind, Washington doesn't function properly right now, So 568 00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:25,080 Speaker 11: I mean, that's not what I don't get the impression 569 00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:27,399 Speaker 11: that is happening. Are they communicating certainly? 570 00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:29,480 Speaker 9: Is this a you know, a four corners you know. 571 00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:32,600 Speaker 11: Sort of a group of eight combination of the House 572 00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:33,719 Speaker 11: and the Senate talking about it. 573 00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:36,840 Speaker 9: No, they're not. But that's not as partisan as it 574 00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:37,639 Speaker 9: is institutional. 575 00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:40,040 Speaker 11: You've covered this a long time, you know, regardless of 576 00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:41,760 Speaker 11: which parties are in charge of the House and the Senate, 577 00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:45,360 Speaker 11: there's still that institutional tension between those two bodies, and 578 00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:47,160 Speaker 11: the Senate when they cut a deal, are going to 579 00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:49,600 Speaker 11: expect their deal to pass, and the House when they 580 00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 11: cut a deal is expect their deal to pass, right, 581 00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:53,040 Speaker 11: But it never happens like that. 582 00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:55,320 Speaker 9: So should they be doing that? Yeah? Are they? Probably 583 00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:56,200 Speaker 9: at a very low level. 584 00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:58,480 Speaker 11: But clearly this is not an equal discussion between the 585 00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:00,880 Speaker 11: House and the Senate. And does that mean that it's 586 00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:01,560 Speaker 11: going to take longer. 587 00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:03,720 Speaker 2: Yes, it does, and everyone's afraid to get jammed by 588 00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,480 Speaker 2: the other chamber. What do you make of this revelation 589 00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,080 Speaker 2: that Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, is now 590 00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:12,640 Speaker 2: communicating regularly with Donald Trump. Would you expect that to 591 00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:16,240 Speaker 2: be the case? And how much can the former president 592 00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:17,720 Speaker 2: thumb the scale on this? 593 00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:21,600 Speaker 11: Oh, the second question is really interesting. 594 00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:22,360 Speaker 9: The first question is not. 595 00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:24,280 Speaker 11: Yes, it makes complete sense for the speaker of the 596 00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:28,200 Speaker 11: Republican House representives to be speaking to the de facto 597 00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:32,040 Speaker 11: to the standard exactly and the likely nominee that in fact, 598 00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:34,320 Speaker 11: you'd be if they weren't having the conversation, we'd be 599 00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:38,080 Speaker 11: asking probably harder questions. Whether or not Trump could put 600 00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:40,120 Speaker 11: his thumb on the scale depends on whether or not, 601 00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:43,640 Speaker 11: in part he wants to I'm not sure he has 602 00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:46,280 Speaker 11: a position on this yet, and Trump doesn't won't take 603 00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:47,640 Speaker 11: a position you. 604 00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:49,520 Speaker 9: Know if he if he he's not. 605 00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:51,680 Speaker 11: There yet, so I'm not sure he's I don't know 606 00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:53,800 Speaker 11: where he is on funding Ukraine. My guess is he's 607 00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:59,120 Speaker 11: against it, but he's for funding UH the border and 608 00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:02,080 Speaker 11: for funding board for Israel. So you know, it might 609 00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:03,560 Speaker 11: be one of those things that doesn't fall neatly in 610 00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:05,840 Speaker 11: any package. So I think he could put the thumb 611 00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,880 Speaker 11: on the scale with a couple of members, probably are 612 00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:11,600 Speaker 11: those of the member Joe a deal on the border. Yeah, 613 00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:13,840 Speaker 11: you know, unless it's a really really good deal and 614 00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:15,680 Speaker 11: he can take credit for it, I mean, that's that's 615 00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,000 Speaker 11: that's the beauty, right if Donald Trump can deliver the 616 00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:20,280 Speaker 11: votes to get the deal and it's a good deal. Maybe, 617 00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:23,520 Speaker 11: but you're right, the starting position, I'll agree with you, 618 00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:26,239 Speaker 11: is it. The last thing that Trump wants politically is 619 00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:28,320 Speaker 11: for Biden to be able to declare a victory this 620 00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:29,800 Speaker 11: close to the midterm, to the election. 621 00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:32,520 Speaker 10: Well, we also had the former president weighing in when 622 00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:34,960 Speaker 10: we first thought the government was shutting down. He seemed 623 00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:37,400 Speaker 10: to be encouraging the crowd that said, you know, hey, 624 00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:37,960 Speaker 10: shut it down. 625 00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:39,840 Speaker 11: He had that shots a couple of times when I 626 00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,640 Speaker 11: was there. Yeah, and he had a budget director who 627 00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:44,600 Speaker 11: really really wanted to shut the government down a couple 628 00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:45,840 Speaker 11: of times, and we did it once. 629 00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:47,560 Speaker 9: We did it once seriously. 630 00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,800 Speaker 11: Indeed, we signed a bunch of spending bills that I 631 00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:52,600 Speaker 11: wish that we had not, and he wished he had 632 00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:54,040 Speaker 11: not after he signed them. 633 00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:56,000 Speaker 10: Well, and we'll see if he has to weigh in 634 00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:58,960 Speaker 10: again come January nineteenth, February second, when we're dealing with 635 00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:00,920 Speaker 10: potentially to two tiers. 636 00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:03,320 Speaker 11: Five minutes after Iowa getting closer and close in Iowa 637 00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:04,200 Speaker 11: government shut down. 638 00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:06,080 Speaker 10: To go back to this idea that that Joe raised 639 00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:09,240 Speaker 10: of Mike Johnson having really close communication with the former president, 640 00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:11,360 Speaker 10: I wonder if the former president might ultimately be the 641 00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:13,480 Speaker 10: best ally he had because how many allies does he 642 00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,880 Speaker 10: realistically have in Congress right now? 643 00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:18,240 Speaker 9: Talk about Mike. 644 00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:21,640 Speaker 11: Yeah, keep in mind, it's sort of when Donald Trump 645 00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:23,200 Speaker 11: got to Washington, and I always said one of his 646 00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:26,000 Speaker 11: greatest strengths was he didn't have any relationships in town. 647 00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:27,840 Speaker 11: And one of the greatest weaknesses he had was he 648 00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:29,280 Speaker 11: didn't have any relationships. 649 00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:31,320 Speaker 9: True Mike Johnson exactly. It can cut both ways. 650 00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:33,840 Speaker 11: Mike does not have the baggage that that that that 651 00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:36,480 Speaker 11: McCarthy had and you know, bad experiences in the past 652 00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:38,960 Speaker 11: for example with you know, certain members. But he also 653 00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:40,640 Speaker 11: hasn't been out there raising the money for the last 654 00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:42,800 Speaker 11: ten years and he doesn't have that good will built up, 655 00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:45,440 Speaker 11: so he can cut absolutely both ways. Again, come back 656 00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:49,760 Speaker 11: to that to the threshold question. It would be strange 657 00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:52,240 Speaker 11: for Mike Johnson not to be talking to Donald Trump, 658 00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:54,080 Speaker 11: but I think that the fact that he's talking to 659 00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:55,800 Speaker 11: him isn't really that remarkable. 660 00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:57,800 Speaker 2: So take us for a walk. What's your view here? 661 00:31:57,960 --> 00:31:59,480 Speaker 2: I mean, do you do you have a a kind 662 00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:01,360 Speaker 2: of they're going to half in your head about what's 663 00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:03,560 Speaker 2: the next deal, because there's a lot that needs to 664 00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,040 Speaker 2: get that. Yes, they're not going to shut down, We're 665 00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:08,440 Speaker 2: going to get a border deal that makes all this happen. 666 00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:08,680 Speaker 9: You know. 667 00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,560 Speaker 11: I remember back when I used to campaign for a 668 00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:14,400 Speaker 11: living and people will say, oh, it's not I hate 669 00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:16,520 Speaker 11: that Washington isn't more bipartisan, and I'm like, no, No, the 670 00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,600 Speaker 11: problem is it's two bipartisan. Because there's one thing that 671 00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:22,280 Speaker 11: everybody can agree on emails on this I know, and 672 00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:25,040 Speaker 11: that's spending more money, and that's what they will agree on. 673 00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:28,200 Speaker 11: They will figure out a way to give everybody enough 674 00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:30,600 Speaker 11: of what they want to pass the Ukraine funding bill 675 00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:32,320 Speaker 11: and Israeli funded bill, a tie one funding bill, and 676 00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:34,360 Speaker 11: a border security bill, and they will keep the government 677 00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:36,960 Speaker 11: open because the spending numbers will just keep going up 678 00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:39,760 Speaker 11: and up and up until they buy enough of ship. 679 00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:41,600 Speaker 4: That's how you get to. 680 00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:44,000 Speaker 10: Say not everyone wants to spend more money. Members of 681 00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,560 Speaker 10: the Freedom cock Is that are pushing for pretty draconian cut. 682 00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:49,600 Speaker 11: You don't get thirty three trillion dollars in debt by accident, 683 00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:51,440 Speaker 11: and you don't get it with one party doing it 684 00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:53,520 Speaker 11: to you. Both parties hold hand in hand to get 685 00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:56,040 Speaker 11: you thirty three trillion dollars in debt. The only thing 686 00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:58,720 Speaker 11: this town can agree on and a bipartisan fashion, is 687 00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:00,000 Speaker 11: spending more money. 688 00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:04,160 Speaker 2: So Bob Goods running the Freedom Caucus now we understand 689 00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:09,920 Speaker 2: a good steward. He's not getting along with Kevin McCarthy, 690 00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:12,680 Speaker 2: who we hear is going to try to primary him. 691 00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:15,320 Speaker 2: What's the next year look like for the Freedom cars. 692 00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:16,840 Speaker 9: Oh, it's rough all over the place. It's gonna be 693 00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:17,400 Speaker 9: rough in the House. 694 00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:19,640 Speaker 11: I've had folks call me about the the Nancy base 695 00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:21,560 Speaker 11: race down in South Carolina. I live in South Carolina 696 00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:24,160 Speaker 11: still like I went home after I left Washington, and 697 00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:26,760 Speaker 11: there are folks, you know, trying to line up to 698 00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,520 Speaker 11: run against Nancy. And there's folks asking me, you know, 699 00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:33,240 Speaker 11: who should run against Nancy. So I mean, no, no, no, no, no, 700 00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:35,080 Speaker 11: who do I know? It's a different district. It's down 701 00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:37,520 Speaker 11: in Charleston. Not that that makes a difference. As you know, 702 00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:39,280 Speaker 11: you don't have to live in district. 703 00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:41,360 Speaker 9: Little piece political exactly. 704 00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:43,320 Speaker 11: It used to be four members of Congress who lived 705 00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:45,120 Speaker 11: in one district in Wisconsin. 706 00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:46,800 Speaker 9: That's another story for another day. 707 00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:50,160 Speaker 11: So no, it's there's gonna be a lot of internal 708 00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:53,600 Speaker 11: bloodbaths over that when when Patrick McHenry and I've not 709 00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:55,360 Speaker 11: talked to Patrick, so I'm not giving away any any 710 00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:59,680 Speaker 11: private conversations. When Patrick McHenry announced he was retiring from Congress, 711 00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:01,800 Speaker 11: to me, that was the biggest red flag that the 712 00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:04,320 Speaker 11: Republicans themselves think they are going. 713 00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:05,200 Speaker 9: To lose the majority. 714 00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:08,400 Speaker 11: Wow, because Patrick, even though he was term limited, technically 715 00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:12,040 Speaker 11: could have easily received an exemption to maintain his position 716 00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:15,960 Speaker 11: as chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. So here's 717 00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:18,440 Speaker 11: a guy that if he wins and they hold the majority, 718 00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:21,160 Speaker 11: he's going to be financial service as chairman. And he 719 00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:24,640 Speaker 11: announces he's leaving. To me, that tells me that he 720 00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:26,799 Speaker 11: doesn't think that we're going to keep the majority. And 721 00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:29,960 Speaker 11: when you break it down and you talk about Republicans 722 00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,560 Speaker 11: fighting against Republicans in certain districts, you talk about losing 723 00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:34,800 Speaker 11: Kevin McCarthy in his ability to raise all that money, 724 00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:37,040 Speaker 11: a lot of the things that are lining up to 725 00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:39,600 Speaker 11: have a tough year for the House Republicans. Does Donald 726 00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:43,040 Speaker 11: Trump make that better or worse? That's really sort of 727 00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:44,960 Speaker 11: the unknown at this point. But right now, if you 728 00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:48,200 Speaker 11: had to bet, you'd bet that the Republicans would struggle 729 00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:50,520 Speaker 11: to keep the House. And that also doesn't bread a 730 00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:51,600 Speaker 11: lot of good will in that building. 731 00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:53,880 Speaker 10: So you think it's not that people are deciding to 732 00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:56,960 Speaker 10: retire because of dysfunction, but maybe they recognize the dysfunction 733 00:34:57,080 --> 00:34:58,439 Speaker 10: is going to cost them. 734 00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:01,440 Speaker 11: It's a variety of things, right Many of them gaily 735 00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:03,600 Speaker 11: that it's hard to sort of paint with a broad brush. 736 00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:05,520 Speaker 11: Some of them are retiring to run for higher office. 737 00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:08,719 Speaker 11: Similar times they've been here forever and then summer the 738 00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:10,400 Speaker 11: time because they might think they're losing the majority some 739 00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:12,200 Speaker 11: of the time because it's just not fun anymore. 740 00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:13,319 Speaker 9: And it really isn't. 741 00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:16,239 Speaker 11: And are the people who are running for higher office saying, well, 742 00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:17,759 Speaker 11: I wasn't going to run for higher office, but this 743 00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:19,719 Speaker 11: place is so miserable, so why not take a chance? 744 00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:20,760 Speaker 2: I run for higher office. 745 00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:22,920 Speaker 11: See it can be a combination of all things. But 746 00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:25,360 Speaker 11: this is when you walk into the building and I 747 00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:28,000 Speaker 11: win the building, not that much, but more than the 748 00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:32,000 Speaker 11: average citizen. It's not friendly right now, and that's the 749 00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:35,239 Speaker 11: members on that people, inter party, intrap party. And it's 750 00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:38,800 Speaker 11: not just Republicans, Democrats have their own issues. It's institutional 751 00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:40,359 Speaker 11: and it's it's a cross party lines. 752 00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:41,120 Speaker 9: It's tough right now. 753 00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:45,000 Speaker 2: So much for the Christmas spirit. Yes, fun when you started? 754 00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:46,720 Speaker 2: Was it fun when I started? 755 00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:47,000 Speaker 9: You know? 756 00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:48,440 Speaker 2: Or has that just been your tenure? 757 00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:51,719 Speaker 11: I think things have certainly changed. I think I think 758 00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:57,360 Speaker 11: that we've gone. It's the vek Ramaswami, Oh God, phenomena 759 00:35:57,400 --> 00:35:59,759 Speaker 11: that I and vivek Ramaswami is someone who came of 760 00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:03,560 Speaker 11: a age in politics during the Donald Trump era. So 761 00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:05,880 Speaker 11: for someone who's only been involved in politics for six 762 00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:09,680 Speaker 11: or seven years, Donald Trump looks normal. Donald Trump can 763 00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:11,320 Speaker 11: get away with what Donald Trump does because he's a 764 00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:12,319 Speaker 11: he's a unique thing. 765 00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:13,839 Speaker 9: He is a black Swan event, right. 766 00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:15,880 Speaker 11: But everybody else is out there thinking, well, if I 767 00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:17,920 Speaker 11: act like Donald Trump, I'll be successful as he is 768 00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:18,680 Speaker 11: on both parties. 769 00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:20,520 Speaker 9: And that's just not. That's not the way that. 770 00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:22,759 Speaker 11: Things are supposed to work, and it's the reason things 771 00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:23,320 Speaker 11: aren't working. 772 00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:26,360 Speaker 2: Great to see you in person a week from today. 773 00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:28,040 Speaker 9: Is uplifting you? 774 00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:29,080 Speaker 7: Today? 775 00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:29,680 Speaker 2: Is Christmas? 776 00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:30,040 Speaker 1: Is it not? 777 00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:32,920 Speaker 2: Well, we never ask uplifting? It is Wow, it is 778 00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:33,720 Speaker 2: You're doing something. 779 00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:34,400 Speaker 9: Right week for today. 780 00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:36,719 Speaker 11: In fact, I just got asked to do television on 781 00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:38,240 Speaker 11: Monday morning at seven o'clock. 782 00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:41,080 Speaker 2: I'll set up. 783 00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:44,200 Speaker 9: Are doing this? You guys aren't doing next Monday? 784 00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:44,919 Speaker 10: Not a chance. 785 00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:46,520 Speaker 2: But I'll see you the week after that. 786 00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:47,000 Speaker 9: Good. 787 00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:49,040 Speaker 11: I just I just had a phone call about the 788 00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:50,000 Speaker 11: new government in Argentina. 789 00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:50,840 Speaker 9: We can do foreign. 790 00:36:50,640 --> 00:36:51,359 Speaker 2: Policies all right. 791 00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:51,840 Speaker 4: Excellent. 792 00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:55,239 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Sound on podcast. Make sure 793 00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:58,160 Speaker 2: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and 794 00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:00,759 Speaker 2: anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can find 795 00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:03,920 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm 796 00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:08,160 Speaker 2: Eastern time at bloomberg dot com,