Speaker 1: Joining us to discuss I am very excited to say,
Speaker 1: is Samson Ellis Bloomberg type he bureau chief with me
Speaker 1: here in the Singapore studio. I think it's been many
Speaker 1: years since I've seen you. Pandemic obviously one of those
Speaker 1: key reasons great to have you with us to to
Speaker 1: talk through this story, because I mean, there was so
Speaker 1: much I guess drama about Nancy Pelosi going. Why is
Speaker 1: this kind of being kept under the radar. Well, that's
Speaker 1: a very good question, I mean, to be perfectly honest,
Speaker 1: these types of trips happen all the time. Like we're
Speaker 1: looking at the data right now, and you know, there
Speaker 1: are at least you know, usually in a typical a year,
Speaker 1: there are up to twenty, maybe even a few more
Speaker 1: US lawmakers who do visit Taiwan. So these trips are
Speaker 1: happening all the time, but they are typically happening slightly
Speaker 1: under the radar. There's not a whole you know, amount
Speaker 1: of fanfare around them, and there's often not you know,
Speaker 1: usually there isn't quite the reaction from the Chinese side
Speaker 1: that we've seen too after Speaker Pelosi's trip ten days ago,
Speaker 1: so you know, it's pretty part of the course that
Speaker 1: you you get these visits happening all the time. Um.
Speaker 1: But obviously, the reason we're looking at this more closely,
Speaker 1: the reason we care about this, the reason we're talking
Speaker 1: about this right now, is it comes so soon after
Speaker 1: Pelosi's trip and the you know, the the massive reaction
Speaker 1: we saw from the Chinese side. Yeah, and on that reaction,
Speaker 1: I mean, one of the things she mentioned was the
Speaker 1: men didn't get this kind of reaction. Is is that fair?
Speaker 1: Because honestly, we're not talking about this visit in the
Speaker 1: same sense that we were. And that also has got
Speaker 1: to do with her role to she is a higher
Speaker 1: ranking official. She did raise that issue, and it isn't
Speaker 1: a very interesting point from her. Um, you know, does
Speaker 1: it have anything to do with the fact she's a woman.
Speaker 1: Very difficult to say, as you say, because she is
Speaker 1: also you know, a much higher ranking US figure than
Speaker 1: you know, any men that have come before. So difficult
Speaker 1: to say, but you know, you obviously you can't rule
Speaker 1: out that possibility. Let's talk as well about I guess
Speaker 1: what we're seeing with some of the other moves. Because
Speaker 1: Taiwan detected twenty two p l A warplanes and six
Speaker 1: warships around the island surrounding region. This is up until
Speaker 1: five pm stunding Sunday, according to a tweet from the
Speaker 1: Ministry of National Defense. So certainly China here is still
Speaker 1: trying to stand its ground, right they are, And that's
Speaker 1: that's one of the trends we're noticing now. Following Pelosi's trip,
Speaker 1: you know, in the days preceding her or following her trip,
Speaker 1: we you know, we saw these massive military exercises completely
Speaker 1: surrounding Taiwan um and then that seems to have settled
Speaker 1: down now into you know, what were people are calling
Speaker 1: a new normal where there are you know, many more
Speaker 1: Chinese patrols around Taiwan, many more Chinese encroachments into Taiwan's
Speaker 1: air Defense Identification Zone and p l A aircraft no
Speaker 1: longer respecting the median line of the Taiwan Strait, which
Speaker 1: for decades previous had kind of stood as an informal
Speaker 1: tacit barrier between the two sides. Sam, You've just come
Speaker 1: from Taiwan to Singapore. I mean when we spoke to
Speaker 1: you a couple of weeks ago, you were saying on
Speaker 1: the ground, look, people are not really that focused on this,
Speaker 1: but very much we are in the global community talking
Speaker 1: about what's happening with with US China relations and and
Speaker 1: the impact to Taiwan. Here, what is it like from
Speaker 1: people in Taiwan if you've got these twenty two p
Speaker 1: l A warplanes circling around, are people worried? Or are
Speaker 1: they getting about their daily business? Now? Again, it barely
Speaker 1: registers in Taipei. You know, people will freely tell you
Speaker 1: we're used to this. This happens all the time. We've
Speaker 1: had this threat hanging over our heads for the past
Speaker 1: seventy years. Um, you know, we'll we'll start worrying when
Speaker 1: when when the missile start falling? And so far they haven't. Um.
Speaker 1: So yeah, people in Taiwan very resilient. But then also,
Speaker 1: you know, have become pretty much inured to this, these
Speaker 1: constant threats. And I think they also recognize that, you know,
Speaker 1: a full out war it would be disastrous for Taiwan.
Speaker 1: It would also be disastrous for China. Right China does
Speaker 1: not want a war at this point, you know, it
Speaker 1: would be Um. You know, China has its own issues.
Speaker 1: You know, if you look at you know, economic growth,
Speaker 1: slowing economic growth, there, the constant COVID lockdowns. Ji Jinping
Speaker 1: is obviously Laser focused on the Party Congress that the
Speaker 1: later this year, when he, you know, is pushing to
Speaker 1: secure a third term, a full out war with Taiwan,
Speaker 1: in which you could pretty much assume the United States
Speaker 1: would intervene as well, and then there's obviously the possibility
Speaker 1: that the Japanese would intervene, and then other allies in
Speaker 1: the region, possibly the Australians too, would get involved. You know,
Speaker 1: that would be utterly disastrous for everyone, but also obviously
Speaker 1: for Beijing. And just very quickly, let's the budging fund
Speaker 1: flows that we're seeing in some of these markets because
Speaker 1: these troubles in Taiwan, you're still seeing Chinese stocks at
Speaker 1: a wide discount to global peers. What do you see
Speaker 1: in terms of say, like the Taiwan dollar. Assets in
Speaker 1: Taiwan have been remarkably resilient. To be honest, again, you know,
Speaker 1: there was this assumption that this would be bad for Taiwan,
Speaker 1: that you'll see massive equity outflows, which would of course
Speaker 1: have a knock on effect on on the Taiwan dollar.
Speaker 1: But other than a little bit of volatility the week
Speaker 1: when Pelosi was here, we absolutely haven't seen that. But
Speaker 1: part of that is the government has intervened. You know
Speaker 1: the government has various funds that it can use to
Speaker 1: shore up both equities and the Taiwan dollar. But I
Speaker 1: think you know, all of these moves were flagged well
Speaker 1: in advanced by China, and so it did take any
Speaker 1: Sampson Ellis Bloomberg type had EUERA chief with us in Singapore.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg