WEBVTT - Samson Ellis on U.S-China (Audio)

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<v Speaker 1>Joining us to discuss I am very excited to say,

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<v Speaker 1>is Samson Ellis Bloomberg type he bureau chief with me

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<v Speaker 1>here in the Singapore studio. I think it's been many

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<v Speaker 1>years since I've seen you. Pandemic obviously one of those

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<v Speaker 1>key reasons great to have you with us to to

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<v Speaker 1>talk through this story, because I mean, there was so

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<v Speaker 1>much I guess drama about Nancy Pelosi going. Why is

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<v Speaker 1>this kind of being kept under the radar. Well, that's

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<v Speaker 1>a very good question, I mean, to be perfectly honest,

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<v Speaker 1>these types of trips happen all the time. Like we're

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<v Speaker 1>looking at the data right now, and you know, there

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<v Speaker 1>are at least you know, usually in a typical a year,

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<v Speaker 1>there are up to twenty, maybe even a few more

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<v Speaker 1>US lawmakers who do visit Taiwan. So these trips are

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<v Speaker 1>happening all the time, but they are typically happening slightly

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<v Speaker 1>under the radar. There's not a whole you know, amount

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<v Speaker 1>of fanfare around them, and there's often not you know,

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<v Speaker 1>usually there isn't quite the reaction from the Chinese side

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<v Speaker 1>that we've seen too after Speaker Pelosi's trip ten days ago,

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<v Speaker 1>so you know, it's pretty part of the course that

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<v Speaker 1>you you get these visits happening all the time. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>But obviously, the reason we're looking at this more closely,

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<v Speaker 1>the reason we care about this, the reason we're talking

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<v Speaker 1>about this right now, is it comes so soon after

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<v Speaker 1>Pelosi's trip and the you know, the the massive reaction

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<v Speaker 1>we saw from the Chinese side. Yeah, and on that reaction,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, one of the things she mentioned was the

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<v Speaker 1>men didn't get this kind of reaction. Is is that fair?

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<v Speaker 1>Because honestly, we're not talking about this visit in the

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<v Speaker 1>same sense that we were. And that also has got

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<v Speaker 1>to do with her role to she is a higher

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<v Speaker 1>ranking official. She did raise that issue, and it isn't

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<v Speaker 1>a very interesting point from her. Um, you know, does

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<v Speaker 1>it have anything to do with the fact she's a woman.

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<v Speaker 1>Very difficult to say, as you say, because she is

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<v Speaker 1>also you know, a much higher ranking US figure than

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<v Speaker 1>you know, any men that have come before. So difficult

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<v Speaker 1>to say, but you know, you obviously you can't rule

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<v Speaker 1>out that possibility. Let's talk as well about I guess

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<v Speaker 1>what we're seeing with some of the other moves. Because

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<v Speaker 1>Taiwan detected twenty two p l A warplanes and six

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<v Speaker 1>warships around the island surrounding region. This is up until

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<v Speaker 1>five pm stunding Sunday, according to a tweet from the

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<v Speaker 1>Ministry of National Defense. So certainly China here is still

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<v Speaker 1>trying to stand its ground, right they are, And that's

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<v Speaker 1>that's one of the trends we're noticing now. Following Pelosi's trip,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, in the days preceding her or following her trip,

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<v Speaker 1>we you know, we saw these massive military exercises completely

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<v Speaker 1>surrounding Taiwan um and then that seems to have settled

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<v Speaker 1>down now into you know, what were people are calling

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<v Speaker 1>a new normal where there are you know, many more

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese patrols around Taiwan, many more Chinese encroachments into Taiwan's

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<v Speaker 1>air Defense Identification Zone and p l A aircraft no

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<v Speaker 1>longer respecting the median line of the Taiwan Strait, which

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<v Speaker 1>for decades previous had kind of stood as an informal

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<v Speaker 1>tacit barrier between the two sides. Sam, You've just come

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<v Speaker 1>from Taiwan to Singapore. I mean when we spoke to

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<v Speaker 1>you a couple of weeks ago, you were saying on

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<v Speaker 1>the ground, look, people are not really that focused on this,

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<v Speaker 1>but very much we are in the global community talking

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<v Speaker 1>about what's happening with with US China relations and and

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<v Speaker 1>the impact to Taiwan. Here, what is it like from

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<v Speaker 1>people in Taiwan if you've got these twenty two p

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<v Speaker 1>l A warplanes circling around, are people worried? Or are

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<v Speaker 1>they getting about their daily business? Now? Again, it barely

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<v Speaker 1>registers in Taipei. You know, people will freely tell you

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<v Speaker 1>we're used to this. This happens all the time. We've

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<v Speaker 1>had this threat hanging over our heads for the past

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<v Speaker 1>seventy years. Um, you know, we'll we'll start worrying when

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<v Speaker 1>when when the missile start falling? And so far they haven't. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>So yeah, people in Taiwan very resilient. But then also,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, have become pretty much inured to this, these

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<v Speaker 1>constant threats. And I think they also recognize that, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>a full out war it would be disastrous for Taiwan.

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<v Speaker 1>It would also be disastrous for China. Right China does

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<v Speaker 1>not want a war at this point, you know, it

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<v Speaker 1>would be Um. You know, China has its own issues.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, if you look at you know, economic growth,

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<v Speaker 1>slowing economic growth, there, the constant COVID lockdowns. Ji Jinping

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<v Speaker 1>is obviously Laser focused on the Party Congress that the

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<v Speaker 1>later this year, when he, you know, is pushing to

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<v Speaker 1>secure a third term, a full out war with Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 1>in which you could pretty much assume the United States

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<v Speaker 1>would intervene as well, and then there's obviously the possibility

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<v Speaker 1>that the Japanese would intervene, and then other allies in

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<v Speaker 1>the region, possibly the Australians too, would get involved. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>that would be utterly disastrous for everyone, but also obviously

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<v Speaker 1>for Beijing. And just very quickly, let's the budging fund

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<v Speaker 1>flows that we're seeing in some of these markets because

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<v Speaker 1>these troubles in Taiwan, you're still seeing Chinese stocks at

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<v Speaker 1>a wide discount to global peers. What do you see

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of say, like the Taiwan dollar. Assets in

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<v Speaker 1>Taiwan have been remarkably resilient. To be honest, again, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>there was this assumption that this would be bad for Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 1>that you'll see massive equity outflows, which would of course

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<v Speaker 1>have a knock on effect on on the Taiwan dollar.

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<v Speaker 1>But other than a little bit of volatility the week

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<v Speaker 1>when Pelosi was here, we absolutely haven't seen that. But

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<v Speaker 1>part of that is the government has intervened. You know

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<v Speaker 1>the government has various funds that it can use to

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<v Speaker 1>shore up both equities and the Taiwan dollar. But I

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<v Speaker 1>think you know, all of these moves were flagged well

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<v Speaker 1>in advanced by China, and so it did take any

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<v Speaker 1>Sampson Ellis Bloomberg type had EUERA chief with us in Singapore.

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg