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Speaker 3: All right, welcome to Hoops tonight. You're at the volume.
Speaker 2: Happy Friday, everybody, hope all if you guys had an
Speaker 2: incredible week. Well as promised every other Friday, we have
Speaker 2: the guys from Nerd Sesh coming on the show today.
Speaker 2: I wanted to do kind of a similar type of
Speaker 2: idea to what we did last week in terms of
Speaker 2: kind of bouncing around the league and hitting a bunch
Speaker 2: of topics. But instead of doing teams today, we're going
Speaker 2: to do players. And so I've got another game for
Speaker 2: us to do where I've got five questions about NBA
Speaker 2: players that are firmly split between two players, and we'll
Speaker 2: have to pick between one or the other.
Speaker 3: All Right, So, without.
Speaker 2: Any further ado, we're gonna start with you, Carson, who
Speaker 2: is most likely to go on a deep playoff run
Speaker 2: this year, Lebron James or Steph Curry.
Speaker 4: Well, I want to start by saying that I think
Speaker 4: it's unlikely when you're talking about deep, like a final
Speaker 4: sort of run for either of these teams in probably
Speaker 4: Western Conference Finals too. But I still clearly think that
Speaker 4: it's Lebron, and the reality is just that he would
Speaker 4: have to do less superhero stuff for the Lakers to
Speaker 4: make say, Western Conference Finals run than Steph would, And
Speaker 4: the obvious reason there is that he has another superstar
Speaker 4: caliber player on his team and Anthony Davis, who could
Speaker 4: be their best player for a series. There's nobody on
Speaker 4: the Warriors who could possibly carry that sort of load.
Speaker 4: He also has the backbone that is ad specifically defensively,
Speaker 4: and the fact that the Lakers can reach a defensive
Speaker 4: ceiling where they're dominant, and that was the driving factor
Speaker 4: of their success in last year's run. So I think
Speaker 4: that Lebron can get to a special level, but he'll
Speaker 4: be able to pick his spots more even in a
Speaker 4: playoff run where it doesn't have to be every single night.
Speaker 4: I'm doing what Steph did in Game seven versus the Kings,
Speaker 4: because that's kind of what it feels like this Warriors
Speaker 4: team would need to make some noise. And I do
Speaker 4: think the elite size in the front court makes the
Speaker 4: Lakers match up much better against some of those other
Speaker 4: super big, physical teams in the West, the Nuggets, the Timberwolves,
Speaker 4: the Warriors are just going to be outmatched physically in
Speaker 4: those matchups. The lack of a second dynamic shot creator,
Speaker 4: it's just too costly for them. So I have felt
Speaker 4: all year that it's I still feel, even as both
Speaker 4: these teams have struggled, that it's definitely LA.
Speaker 1: Those are the two biggest points for me with the Lakers. Two,
Speaker 1: he has Anthony Davis to rely on, and they're just
Speaker 1: physical as hell, and their athletic as hell their biggest hill.
Speaker 1: And the Warriors, sadly like as much as I like
Speaker 1: the conglomerate of assets that they have, the bench pieces
Speaker 1: that have stepped up, you know, shout out Bepod, shoutout
Speaker 1: KAMINGA for going crazy, shout out TJD. Like I like
Speaker 1: a lot of the Warriors pieces, but they don't have
Speaker 1: a dominant number two they are at physical disadvantages, and
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis is the best player you know this season
Speaker 1: out of the two guys like Steph just doesn't have
Speaker 1: that luxury. So I also think it's the Lakers, and
Speaker 1: I think they're more for looking at this from a
Speaker 1: trade toline perspective, I know we bring this up every
Speaker 1: time we talk about LA. I think, considering that they
Speaker 1: are the Los Angeles Lakers, they don't have a core
Speaker 1: like the Warriors do, they are more likely to make
Speaker 1: a game changing move at.
Speaker 5: The deadline as well.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think if we go back a month, it's
Speaker 2: a chasm between the two. I think, like there's it
Speaker 2: was just so much more clear that the Lakers were
Speaker 2: more primed for that type of playoff run. But some
Speaker 2: things have changed. For instance, Andrew Wiggins is starting to
Speaker 2: play a little bit better. Jonathan Kamingo over the course
Speaker 2: of the last like three weeks is basically on. He
Speaker 2: went from not having a single consecutive stretch of twenty
Speaker 2: point games in his career to what's he on, like
Speaker 2: seven or eight of them in a row now, So
Speaker 2: like you have the rise of Jonathan kaminga even on
Speaker 2: the other end of things for the Lakers, like we
Speaker 2: went from, you know, like Jared Vanderbilt is vitally important
Speaker 2: to this team, and we got an announcement today that
Speaker 2: he's going to be out for at least a few
Speaker 2: more weeks and that that season ending surgery is on
Speaker 2: the table for Jared Vanderbilt, which wouldn't be a death
Speaker 2: sentence for the Lakers, but would significantly cut into their
Speaker 2: margin for air. So it is closer, But that said,
Speaker 2: it's still the Lakers. It's a lot of specific reasons.
Speaker 2: They have more star power. Like you said, there's more
Speaker 2: secondary shot creation support for Lebron James, and even extending
Speaker 2: into this the typical stuff that we know matters the
Speaker 2: most when we get to the NBA playoffs. So, for instance,
Speaker 2: the Lakers have the size to match up with a
Speaker 2: lot of teams that other teams do not. The Lakers
Speaker 2: have more superstar talent than the Warriors have. The Lakers
Speaker 2: have even just among the guys in their rotation that
Speaker 2: are younger, they're younger players with playoff experience. Now, Ruby
Speaker 2: Hachimura was there for the deep playoff run, Austin Reeves
Speaker 2: was there for the deep playoff run. A lot of
Speaker 2: these guys like Pozemski, fray Jackson, Davis. They're like Kaminga,
Speaker 2: barely played in last year's playoff runs. So like, I
Speaker 2: think they're just more primed. Even if we do acknowledge
Speaker 2: that that trend is flipping, and I want to be
Speaker 2: clear that trend is flipping, because I actually see the
Speaker 2: Warriors going on a Lakers esque second half run for
Speaker 2: a bunch of specific reasons. One, they have the fifth
Speaker 2: easiest remaining schedule in the NBA, which, especially if you
Speaker 2: factor in the Western Conference where just I was digging
Speaker 2: into the numbers the other day, the West is just
Speaker 2: so much deeper with talent from the top to the bottom.
Speaker 2: It was even I can't remember the exact numbers, but
Speaker 2: I pulled up like the head to head records, and
Speaker 2: the Western Conference teams have like have like a thirty
Speaker 2: wins in the positive over five hundred over Eastern Conference
Speaker 2: teams had to head this year. Like, the West is
Speaker 2: just deeper, and the Warriors have had a hillacious schedule
Speaker 2: to start the year with Draymond playing in only twenty
Speaker 2: of the games, and so I think there's a lot
Speaker 2: of potential for the Warriors to go on that type
Speaker 2: of run.
Speaker 3: But again, when you get down to like.
Speaker 2: The playoff groupings, and it's like it's probably gonna be
Speaker 2: Steph Clay, Andrew Wiggins, Johnathan Kaminga, and Draymond Green. It's
Speaker 2: just with some of the decline we've seen from Klay Thompson,
Speaker 2: with Jonathan Kaminga being so young, it's just hard to
Speaker 2: pick them in a series the way that you can
Speaker 2: kind of see the Lakers kind of getting to that point.
Speaker 2: I want to be clear though, like both of these teams,
Speaker 2: they're both kind of poised to head into that play
Speaker 2: in tournament range. And our top two teams in the
Speaker 2: Western Conference of the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves,
Speaker 2: two teams that are extremely good. And I'm not trying
Speaker 2: to sit here and undercut the good that they bring
Speaker 2: to the table. But between some of the limitations that
Speaker 2: we've talked about with the Timberwolves and some of their
Speaker 2: late game execution, their clutch offense has been garbage in
Speaker 2: the last month or so, and then you look at
Speaker 2: the Thunder and some of the limitations they have as
Speaker 2: being a young and small team. It's kind of crazy
Speaker 2: because I agree with you, Carson, both of these teams
Speaker 2: are seemingly in worse position than they were last year. Yeah,
Speaker 2: it's like you get into that seven eight slot and
Speaker 2: you have a chance. It's like, man, I don't think
Speaker 2: it's off the table. So before we move on, I
Speaker 2: want to give you guys one more follow up. Do
Speaker 2: you think it's more likely than not that either team
Speaker 2: pulls off a first round upset or more likely than
Speaker 2: not that they both lose in the first round or
Speaker 2: miss the playoffs entirely.
Speaker 4: I think it is more likely than not, if we're
Speaker 4: viewing them as a collective, probably that they lose in
Speaker 4: the first round or miss entirely, just because I'm struggling
Speaker 4: to see it with the Warriors right now, and there
Speaker 4: is a lot still that I like, and I know
Speaker 4: that their record is poor, but by net rating like
Speaker 4: they've been a better team than the Lakers. They've had
Speaker 4: some of the worst late game execution and also luck
Speaker 4: they've lost so many close games this year. They have
Speaker 4: dealt with Draymond's absence for an extended period, and they
Speaker 4: have been looking different as of late because of the
Speaker 4: dynamic changer that is Jonathan Kaminga. But I still see
Speaker 4: some irreversible issues with them and when I look at
Speaker 4: a team like the Thunder, they're more athletic, they have
Speaker 4: more dynamic shot creators, they're defending at a higher level. Yeah,
Speaker 4: they're less experienced, but I just think Steph would have
Speaker 4: to go supernova, and when SGA is opposite you and
Speaker 4: he has the best supporting cast, that's just tough formula.
Speaker 4: I still think the Lakers have the upside to beat
Speaker 4: a whole lot of teams out West, not the Nuggets.
Speaker 4: I think the Clippers would be a strong favorite. But
Speaker 4: outside of that, Lebron and Ad and they have much
Speaker 4: more secondary shot creation. As you mentioned from the perimeter, Jason,
Speaker 4: if you're picking out the two dudes outside of that
Speaker 4: star tier who, it's like, Hey, run me a pick
Speaker 4: and roll, float my offense for six minutes. You want
Speaker 4: Austin Reeves and you want D'Angelo Russell more than you
Speaker 4: want anybody on.
Speaker 5: That Warriors roster after Steph.
Speaker 4: So unfortunately, I just think the path is too long
Speaker 4: for the Warriors right now.
Speaker 5: Only crazy.
Speaker 1: I don't know if we get those hypothetical matchups, I
Speaker 1: think I might take LA and Golden State to win
Speaker 1: to upset them both. I don't know, do the experience
Speaker 1: factor really matters to me there. And you say that
Speaker 1: it is a tall task to ask stuff to do that,
Speaker 1: But I mean, is Steph giving us any reason to
Speaker 1: doubt him? Like, I don't know, Man, I think in
Speaker 1: that hypothetical matchup, I would pick the Lakers and the
Speaker 1: Warriors to both upset those young teams. Man, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: I'm gonna ride with the old guard.
Speaker 2: The tough one would be the Warriors the like I
Speaker 2: think they would need to catch OKC in particular to
Speaker 2: get that first round upset. But I think that's on
Speaker 2: the table specifically, just because I really do think Golden
Speaker 2: State would have just a huge experience advantage there. Draymond
Speaker 2: Green too, You could just see him getting all into
Speaker 2: the gamesman ship in the early phase of this series
Speaker 2: to like snatch chet Holm, grind of his confidence, and
Speaker 2: to do some things along those lines. I would lean
Speaker 2: slightly more towards it's more likely than not that we
Speaker 2: get one of those teams to upset somebody in the
Speaker 2: first round. All right, moving on to our next question,
Speaker 2: who has more pressure on them in this playoff runt?
Speaker 2: Jannison tenne Kumpo or Jason Tatum. We'll start with you logan,
Speaker 2: I would argue.
Speaker 1: That Jason Tatum maybe has more pressure on his shoulders
Speaker 1: than any other player in all of basketball this season
Speaker 1: coming into the playoffs, considering his shortcomings in the playoff
Speaker 1: stage that we've seen in late game scenarios where he
Speaker 1: has a lock of lack of shot dynamicsm where he
Speaker 1: has struggled when there's a lot of ball pressure applied
Speaker 1: to him, where he's crumbled in these big moments.
Speaker 5: To put it, you know, to put it simply.
Speaker 1: And you couple that with the fact that Boston has
Speaker 1: really gone all in on this core and they've invested
Speaker 1: more into you know, this top five of this lineup.
Speaker 1: They've got chrisoft Worzeingis, They've got Drew Holliday, They've got
Speaker 1: Derek White, they've got Jaylen Brown.
Speaker 2: Point.
Speaker 1: If the Celtics don't get it done this year, it's
Speaker 1: a major disappointment, and all of that blame is going
Speaker 1: to fall on the shoulders of Jason Tatum. Considering the
Speaker 1: fact that Jannis has already climbed the mountain, you know,
Speaker 1: I mean, Giannis can have as many Jannis can have
Speaker 1: as many late game gaffs and poor you know, executions
Speaker 1: in the clutch.
Speaker 5: He got it done.
Speaker 1: That's all that really matters. He had a fifty piece
Speaker 1: on the biggest age. We saw Tatum in the finals,
Speaker 1: and I'm sure he had a couple of good games,
Speaker 1: but they crumbled against the Warriors. They had that series
Speaker 1: in the back. That's his legacy until he changes it, right,
Speaker 1: they crumbled in Game seven against the Miami Heat. That's
Speaker 1: the Celtic's reputation, and that's Jason Tatum's reputation. Considering how
Speaker 1: stacked the roster is, I think Tatum has more to
Speaker 1: prove in these playoffs than anybody else in basketball. I
Speaker 1: think he's got the kind of the way to the
Speaker 1: world on his shoulders. Man, he's Atlas right now.
Speaker 4: I agree, And I think that Logan makes a great point.
Speaker 4: Once you have climbed the mountain once, and especially once
Speaker 4: you've done it in the fashion that Yiannis did. And
Speaker 4: I'm not talking about the run in terms of competition,
Speaker 4: because you have the Nets down basically two of their
Speaker 4: three stars, they had James Harden barely walking around, and
Speaker 4: then the Hawks and a Suns team that was good
Speaker 4: but maybe not totally championship ready. It's not about that
Speaker 4: murderers row that he had to go through, but it's
Speaker 4: about the level that he played individually, Like Jiannis was
Speaker 4: unbelievable in that run and specifically in the finals. That
Speaker 4: puts you in a different tier in terms of I
Speaker 4: think the margin that you have and last year was ugly,
Speaker 4: but he still has more margin. The expectations are different
Speaker 4: also because he has done that and Tatum hasn't. But
Speaker 4: Tatum is the guy who a lot of people, it seems,
Speaker 4: want to crown as like one of the kings of
Speaker 4: the league, right alongside jokicin Jannis, and I don't think
Speaker 4: that he's quite on that level as a player, and
Speaker 4: he does not have that sort of playoff resume, and
Speaker 4: especially this year, he has everything everything going in his favor.
Speaker 4: The Celtics have been overwhelmingly talented for the last couple
Speaker 4: of years. This is a different level though. Man we
Speaker 4: say this often on our show. They have five All
Speaker 4: Star caliber basket players basketball players on the same team.
Speaker 4: This is not just the most talented starting five in
Speaker 4: the league. If you take away the number one guy,
Speaker 4: the Nuggets starting lineup is really good, but the two
Speaker 4: through five are not as loaded as what Boston has.
Speaker 4: It's one of the most talented starting fives of this century,
Speaker 4: like legitimately in that top tier. And so when you
Speaker 4: have the reputation where we do see the tremendous variance
Speaker 4: from him game to game because of his reliance on
Speaker 4: pull up threes where he's not always the most efficient.
Speaker 4: When you think about some of the turnover issues that
Speaker 4: he had in the finals run, especially in late game situations,
Speaker 4: the offense just sort of devolving and Tatum is at
Speaker 4: the center of that. Was really bad in Game seven
Speaker 4: against the Heat, was bad in Game six against the
Speaker 4: Warriors in the finals. It just feels like he is
Speaker 4: a guy who has all of the perfect storm circumstances
Speaker 4: coming together for this to just be a pressure cooker.
Speaker 4: Like pressure's on him in basically every sense. He has
Speaker 4: the overwhelming advantages and he hasn't proven it. This is
Speaker 4: the year he's got to do it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny because I think Giannis definitely has some pressure, Like, yeah,
Speaker 2: he's he's won one playoff series since he owaysted the
Speaker 2: trophy in an Eastern Conference, by the way, that's pretty
Speaker 2: top heavy, and usually if you have a decent regular season,
Speaker 2: you have a very winnable first round matchup. Now, the
Speaker 2: important context is there was no Chris Middleton in twenty
Speaker 2: twenty two, and they lost to a Celtics team that
Speaker 2: I didn't think they had much of a chance to beat.
Speaker 2: And to Giannis's credit, he was amazing in that series.
Speaker 2: And then obviously he missed games in twenty twenty three
Speaker 2: with an injury. That said, he didn't play well in
Speaker 2: that series against Miami, and a lot of the same
Speaker 2: issues that plagued him before he was a champion rose
Speaker 2: to the surface. He was turning the basketball over a lot,
Speaker 2: he was missing a ton of free throws, and then
Speaker 2: that lack of any sort of reliable over the top shot,
Speaker 2: whether it's a hook shot or a little short jumper
Speaker 2: or whatever it is. Those were big things that rose
Speaker 2: to the surface when they lost to Miami last year.
Speaker 2: Since then, Nikole Jokich has overtaken him by some clearly
Speaker 2: discernible margin. I actually think I was actually thinking about
Speaker 2: this the other day. I think I think the lead
Speaker 2: that Jokic has over the league has become pretty significant
Speaker 2: all of a sudden, when you kind of look around
Speaker 2: and you start to really parse out the strengths and
Speaker 2: weaknesses of some of these guys. But then you know,
Speaker 2: for Jannis, they go and trade for a bona fide
Speaker 2: superstar guard.
Speaker 3: To help him with all of that stuff.
Speaker 2: So, like, I want to be clear, like if Yannis
Speaker 2: loses in the first or second round, that's.
Speaker 3: Not a good look.
Speaker 2: So like there's definitely some pressure on him, and I
Speaker 2: would I think we all agree that the Bucks, they
Speaker 2: have the chance, they have the potential to win the title,
Speaker 2: and they have the potential to lose in that first
Speaker 2: or second round. They're very much a like a high
Speaker 2: floor or a high ceiling low floor type of team.
Speaker 2: That said, none of that even comes close to acknowledging
Speaker 2: the fact that Yannis is a champion and Jason Tatum
Speaker 2: is not. And when you really dig into it, I
Speaker 2: one hundred percent agree. I put in my notes plays
Speaker 2: in the most talented starting five in the league in
Speaker 2: my opinion. He's about to turn twenty six years old
Speaker 2: here in early March. That's the age where you start
Speaker 2: to expect a young star to kind of break through
Speaker 2: in the play and Boston's gonna like run away with
Speaker 2: the number one overall seed. They are two point five
Speaker 2: games up on the second seed, right now, and they
Speaker 2: have an insanely easy remaining schedule. Their opponents for the
Speaker 2: remainder of their schedule have only won forty five point
Speaker 2: three percent of their games, just comically easy. And so
Speaker 2: the other thing that kind of that kind of is
Speaker 2: is showing, I would say, a point of pretty significant pessimism.
Speaker 2: For me, one of the biggest discouraging elements of this
Speaker 2: season from Jason Tatum has been, even though he put
Speaker 2: on all this additional muscle, leaning so strongly into the
Speaker 2: pull up jump shot. And so I wanted to give
Speaker 2: you guys some numbers because we had a stretch there
Speaker 2: late December early January where he had it going and
Speaker 2: it was like, Oh, is he finally gonna break through
Speaker 2: and this is gonna be like the.
Speaker 3: Start of what all that hard work was.
Speaker 2: For, is Jason Tatum becomes this dynamic pull up shooter
Speaker 2: and then in ten games in his last ten games,
Speaker 2: just thirty three for ninety three on pull up jumps shots,
Speaker 2: just zero point nine to one points per attempt, basically
Speaker 2: where he's been for years. And then the biggest concerning
Speaker 2: part there is ninety three attempts in ten games. Yeah,
Speaker 2: and that's nine point three per game. And so here's
Speaker 2: the last stat that I want to give you, guys.
Speaker 2: Seven players in the NBA this year have attempted at
Speaker 2: least four hundred pull up jump shots. Jason Tatum four
Speaker 2: hundred at forty six point six percent effective field goal percentage,
Speaker 2: Anthony Edwards four hundred and thirteen on forty four point
Speaker 2: three percent EFFECTI field goal percentage or another similar issue.
Speaker 2: And that kind of goes to a lot of the
Speaker 2: stuff I've talked about with Minnesota and like their potential
Speaker 2: to lose a series, they shouldn't lose just because of
Speaker 2: poor decision making by their primary shot creators. But this
Speaker 2: is where it gets interesting. Sga four hundred and forty
Speaker 2: attempts fifty three percent effective field goal percentage. Devin Booker
Speaker 2: four hundred and forty one attempts fifty two percent effective
Speaker 2: field goal percentage. Trey four hundred fifty ninettempts fifty two
Speaker 2: percent effective filgal percentage. Jalen Brunson four hundred and seventy
Speaker 2: six attempts fifty three percent effective filgal percentage. Luka Doncic
Speaker 2: five hundred and sixty attempts fifty one percent effectiveilical percentage.
Speaker 2: You know, what's a point of commonality between those five names?
Speaker 5: Throw a guards there.
Speaker 2: None of them are six nine freak athletes that are
Speaker 2: just completely jacked. Like that's the difference. Like Shay has
Speaker 2: good athletic tools, but he is not Anthony Edwards, like
Speaker 2: Devin Booker as a two guard is a middle of
Speaker 2: the pack athlete, if not a little bit below average.
Speaker 2: Trey Young is not an athletic guard. Jalen Brunson is
Speaker 2: not an athletic guard. Luka Doncic is a ground bound forward.
Speaker 2: They need to rely on those types of shots and
Speaker 2: they're way better at them. And Jason Tatuman, if you
Speaker 2: look at it, that's half of his shot diet. He's
Speaker 2: going into games in actively hunting and pursuing these shots
Speaker 2: and he can't make them at a high enough clip
Speaker 2: for to make sense for him to do so. And
Speaker 2: so to me, like when we came into this season,
Speaker 2: we all agreed that the number one thing that mattered
Speaker 2: as it pertained to Boston and their ability to win
Speaker 2: the title was going to be offensive process. Could they
Speaker 2: be deliberate enough to to get the right shots consistently
Speaker 2: enough to win the against against another team that's on
Speaker 2: their tier, a team like Milwaukee, a team like Denver,
Speaker 2: a team like the Clippers, right, and like that to
Speaker 2: me is just screaming like he doesn't get it. He
Speaker 2: didn't get it. And like once again last night, I'm
Speaker 2: watching him and he had a couple of tough ones
Speaker 2: and it's like I'm watching him, I'm like, dude, you
Speaker 2: were the best player on this floor by a mile,
Speaker 2: by a mile, and you're and you're actively hunting some
Speaker 2: of the toughest shots that a basketball player can take
Speaker 2: in a game. It was it was definitely discouraging. But
Speaker 2: I'm off my soapbox sorright, So let's move on to
Speaker 2: our next topic. Who is more likely to perform well
Speaker 2: in this year's postseason run, Damian Lillard or James Harden.
Speaker 2: Let's start with you, Carson.
Speaker 4: What I think is difficult about this question is that
Speaker 4: they're in such different context and so it's like, how
Speaker 4: do we evaluate performing well when James Harden is going
Speaker 4: to be a third option who is matching up with
Speaker 4: teams third best perimeter defenders, and whose primary responsibility is
Speaker 4: going to be to facilitate the offense really and then
Speaker 4: pick his spots right attacking maybe some of those weaker
Speaker 4: defenders in isolation and pick and roll and whatnot, as
Speaker 4: compared to Damian Lillard, who has to be not just
Speaker 4: his team's second best player overall, but maybe their best
Speaker 4: offensive player period if that team wants to make noise
Speaker 4: in the playoffs, and in terms of half court offensive creation,
Speaker 4: by far their number one guy. You talked about how
Speaker 4: Yiannis melted down under those circumstances last year against a
Speaker 4: really great one on one defender like Bam who can
Speaker 4: match up with him physically. That lack of shot making
Speaker 4: can hurt him. The eternal can hurt him. As you said,
Speaker 4: get into line. He can't convert in those situations. It's
Speaker 4: gonna be about what Dame can do as this great
Speaker 4: pick and roll shot maker and facilitator. So they do
Speaker 4: have different roles, and I have been concerned by some
Speaker 4: stuff with Dame as of late. I think the lack
Speaker 4: of rim pressure. He hasn't looked quite as quick as
Speaker 4: we're used to. His perimeter shooting has not been what
Speaker 4: we're used to for a lot of this year. He's
Speaker 4: just thirty four percent from deep and Harden has been
Speaker 4: doing really well in his specific role. But I would
Speaker 4: just rather have Dame for a playoff run. I think
Speaker 4: that there is certainly more upside. I still can see
Speaker 4: a takeover just flamethrower shooting run from him, and I
Speaker 4: can see him creating a bunch of opportunities for his
Speaker 4: teammates because of the stress that he puts on defenses
Speaker 4: and demanding the guys come out thirty feet to guard
Speaker 4: the pick and roll. Harden, I think, you know, is
Speaker 4: gonna fall within some range, and maybe he is a
Speaker 4: good efficient third option this year, but we've just seen
Speaker 4: too many times before when he tries to carry that
Speaker 4: heavier burden as a volume score, he falls apart for
Speaker 4: various reasons. Last year, it was real struggles to get
Speaker 4: to the rim and then against athletic defenses, an inability
Speaker 4: to finish at the rim where he shot like thirty
Speaker 4: percent in that playoff run. It is the reliance on
Speaker 4: formulaic offense, which got better in last year's playoff run.
Speaker 4: He was taking more mid range jumpers, but historically has
Speaker 4: been an issue. It's the reliance on getting to the
Speaker 4: line when you're not gonna get those same calls. For
Speaker 4: all those reasons, Harden has consistently struggled to be the
Speaker 4: same player in a playoff run that he is in
Speaker 4: the regular season. This year could be different because he
Speaker 4: doesn't have that same burden. But I just think Dame
Speaker 4: is better, and I think that Dame has much more
Speaker 4: potential to go on like a legitimately Torrent run where
Speaker 4: you look at and you say, yeah, he was the
Speaker 4: reason that they made it this far.
Speaker 1: Well, said Carson, I mean it really does come down
Speaker 1: to like reputation. For me, Am I gonna go with
Speaker 1: one of the biggest, you know, playoff chokers, the guy
Speaker 1: who continuously lets us down? Or Am I going to
Speaker 1: go with a guy who has a reputation as a
Speaker 1: stone cold killer. I do agree with you, It's drastically
Speaker 1: different situations, but I'm gonna go with the killer. I
Speaker 1: believe when the chips are down that Dame's a gamer
Speaker 1: and on the biggest stage, is Dame ups his game
Speaker 1: another level. This has been a down year for Dame,
Speaker 1: but I think on the biggest age there's just a
Speaker 1: level of trust and confidence that I have in Dame
Speaker 1: to step his game up.
Speaker 5: So I'm going with Dame.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting because Carson, I think you did a
Speaker 2: really nice job of breaking down the difference between the
Speaker 2: two guys and what they're expected to do for their teams. Like,
Speaker 2: I don't think there's any question that Dame is probably
Speaker 2: a better player, you know, in terms of just like
Speaker 2: what he can do to help a team in the playoffs.
Speaker 3: But I think James Harden.
Speaker 2: Just has much easier job on both ends of the floor.
Speaker 2: By the way, like even at the like Dame actually
Speaker 2: needs to be a decent perimeter defender for Milwaukee to
Speaker 2: kind of reach their ultimate goals. He's got to be
Speaker 2: engaged on that end of the floor, like James Harden.
Speaker 2: They literally can just hide him because Terrence Man can
Speaker 2: guard on the perimeter, because Paul George can guard in
Speaker 2: the perimeter, because Kawhi Leonard can guard on the perimeter.
Speaker 2: He's gonna consistently get his significantly easier perimeter defense assignment.
Speaker 2: And then when he has the ball, he's going to
Speaker 2: catch a significantly lesser perimeter defender in the way that
Speaker 2: Dame is going to get the best of the guys, right.
Speaker 2: And then one of the things that I thought was
Speaker 2: really interesting, here's a stat for you guys. It's interesting
Speaker 2: last year when James Harden shot below forty percent from
Speaker 2: the field. The Sixers were seven and eight in the
Speaker 2: regular season and three and four in the postseason, in
Speaker 2: large part because like they needed him, they needed him
Speaker 2: to be a guy who was consistently productive on the
Speaker 2: offensive end of the floor. This year, the Clippers are
Speaker 2: ten and six when James Harden shoots below forty percent
Speaker 2: of the field, and one of those losses was in
Speaker 2: that early stretch of the season when they were just
Speaker 2: like unbelievably terrible. And so I think it's it's one
Speaker 2: of those things where it gets it gets complicated because
Speaker 2: I think these two players kind of get lumped in together,
Speaker 2: and I actually want to ask a follow up regarding that,
Speaker 2: but like, like the reality is is, like I think
Speaker 2: we could come out of this postseason run thinking James
Speaker 2: Harden is a better playoff player because he has an
Speaker 2: easier job. And it's a great example of how when
Speaker 2: we have these kinds of conversations, it's important to acknowledge
Speaker 2: the difference in just what a player is expected to
Speaker 2: do for their team relative to some of their peers
Speaker 2: around the league. It was one of the biggest things
Speaker 2: that bothered me back in like the like the twenty
Speaker 2: eighteen finals or twenty seventeen finals, it's like, oh kd
Speaker 2: outpit played Lebron. It's like he's not nearly asked to
Speaker 2: do as much as what Lebron is asked to do
Speaker 2: for his team. It's not even in the same ballpark.
Speaker 2: And so those sorts of things need to be kind
Speaker 2: of discussed when we're getting into those weeds. But before
Speaker 2: we move on, who do you think has the more
Speaker 2: impressive playoff resume, Damian Lillard or James Harden. We'll start
Speaker 2: with you, Carson.
Speaker 4: I honestly think that it's Harden, and I'm about as
Speaker 4: low on playoff Harden as I feel like any reasonable
Speaker 4: person would be. But the reality is Logan you talk
Speaker 4: about the killer thing with Dame, and there is this
Speaker 4: pervasive narrative that Dame is just a dude who steps
Speaker 4: up to the big moment. But in terms of playoff production, like,
Speaker 4: it's not like he's elevated his game from what we've
Speaker 4: seen in the regular season. In fact, he's generally been inferior.
Speaker 4: He had that awesome first round series in twenty twenty
Speaker 4: one where he was like unstoppable. That's kind of the
Speaker 4: only time that I've looked at Dame's playoff performance and
Speaker 4: been like, oh boy, you really showed them. He's had
Speaker 4: some rough series. Other than that, his career efficiency in
Speaker 4: the postseason is significantly down, and Harden, yes has disappointed,
Speaker 4: But it's about expectations to some extent, like he's coming
Speaker 4: from these monumentally great, all time offensive regular seasons and
Speaker 4: then he can't sustain that. And so if he gives
Speaker 4: you thirty and eight on say, fifty nine percent true
Speaker 4: shooting instead of thirty five and eight on whatever sixty
Speaker 4: four percent truth shooting, you're like, that guy fell off.
Speaker 4: He fell off relative to expectations, but he's still at
Speaker 4: his prime. Was just a nightmare to with an isolation.
Speaker 4: So the things that brought him down are very, very real,
Speaker 4: and they're important. And I will always stand on the
Speaker 4: side of regular season James Harden is not equivalent to
Speaker 4: playoff James Harden. There's tangible reasons for that we've seen
Speaker 4: time and again. So don't elevate him into the greatest
Speaker 4: offensive players of all time conversation. But versus Dame, I
Speaker 4: would argue that he's actually done more impressive things in
Speaker 4: the postseason.
Speaker 1: I honestly think I go with Dame. I understand what
Speaker 1: you're saying, Carson. I mean to me, Harden's style of
Speaker 1: play is always going to or when he was at
Speaker 1: his apex, that style of play was always going to
Speaker 1: suffer in the playoff context.
Speaker 5: I think Dame was always more.
Speaker 1: Of a seamless, you know, easy offense for his team.
Speaker 1: And I also think that Harden's teams were always better.
Speaker 1: I think Damien was elevating Portland rosters that weren't that
Speaker 1: great to get there. Dame is not a great playoff performer,
Speaker 1: but I would take Dame's moments what's your what's your?
Speaker 5: And I hate that.
Speaker 1: I feel like that's like a little bit of a
Speaker 1: cop out answer, but like, yeah, what's James Harden's moment.
Speaker 5: I don't know what James Harden's moment.
Speaker 4: I means. James Harden's moment, I guess is like the
Speaker 4: block shot, being the closest guy to beating the Warriors
Speaker 4: in a playoff series for a half decade, when Dame
Speaker 4: was getting bounced in the first round and then he
Speaker 4: made it one time and without KD they washed him.
Speaker 4: I don't like, it's not Jimmy Butler we're talking about it. Yeah,
Speaker 4: Dame has this aura where people are like he rises
Speaker 4: to the occasion, he's a different player, but he's really not.
Speaker 4: And Harden may regress, but Harden's regressing again from all
Speaker 4: time regular season player. Dame is coming from like fringe
Speaker 4: top ten guy, and he's kind of remaining fringe top
Speaker 4: ten guy. I don't know.
Speaker 1: I think context matters a little bit with that too.
Speaker 1: Like I said, with his team, I don't think Dame's
Speaker 1: teams were and Dame wasn't as good as Harden at
Speaker 1: his apex, you know what I mean, Harden was the
Speaker 1: better engine. I don't know, Dame has better moments and
Speaker 1: I don't know, Man, there's a the clutch factor. I
Speaker 1: don't trust James Harden. I don't trust James Harden at all.
Speaker 3: Man.
Speaker 1: I've seen James Harden crumble. I haven't seen Dame like
Speaker 1: completely collapse.
Speaker 2: This is a tough one because like that, once again,
Speaker 2: there's a lot of context. Like you're right, dames moments
Speaker 2: are better, and he's definitely been bigger, better and like the.
Speaker 3: Bigger of the games.
Speaker 2: But then again, like James Harden has more consistently been
Speaker 2: you know, like he's a more accomplished regular season player,
Speaker 2: he's usually led teams to greater success. But then it's
Speaker 2: also important to acknowledge that I like, I don't think
Speaker 2: Dames ever had a team like the like that twenty
Speaker 2: eighteen Rockets team.
Speaker 3: I just don't think he has.
Speaker 2: I don't think he's had a team that's had Air
Speaker 2: Gordon and Chris Paul and Clincapella and athleticism on the
Speaker 2: wings that can defend. And like, I think it's complicated,
Speaker 2: And I would say in terms of actual tangible accomplishment,
Speaker 2: I lean towards towards James James Harden. But in an
Speaker 2: in a vacuum, if I could pick a player for
Speaker 2: their prime to put on like any basketball team, I
Speaker 2: think I'd probably still take Dame over James Harden, which
Speaker 2: I think is the final differentiator. All Right, two more
Speaker 2: and then we're gonna get out of here, starting with you, Logan,
Speaker 2: who is more likely to win the Western Conference? Luka,
Speaker 2: Doncic or Kevin Durant.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say Kevin Durant. And I really like the
Speaker 1: Dallas Mavericks, guys. The Dallas Mavericks are one of my
Speaker 1: favorite teams to watch, simply because they have Luka Doncic
Speaker 1: and Kyrie Irving. They are awesome when they are on,
Speaker 1: but whow are they ugly when they are bad?
Speaker 3: Man?
Speaker 1: The MAVs frustrate me beyond belief in their bad games
Speaker 1: when it's the Grant Williams show. When it's the role
Speaker 1: players suck on Both of these teams is what I'm
Speaker 1: getting at.
Speaker 5: Both the role players just completely blow and I don't
Speaker 5: have any confidence in them to do anything.
Speaker 1: Like Phoenix just has more top star power and I
Speaker 1: can imagine kd and Beale and Book going crazy. They
Speaker 1: just have more top guys like that really is the
Speaker 1: sole difference for me. I can imagine Luca and Kyrie
Speaker 1: getting hot, but I cannot imagine the role players playing
Speaker 1: beyond their means. The MAVs are just too far away.
Speaker 1: Like if you're giving Grant Williams big minutes, man, I'm sorry, dude,
Speaker 1: your team's not doing anything. You're relying on Josh Green
Speaker 1: and the boys, and there's just there's not enough there.
Speaker 1: You need Dante Xim, you need Derek Jones, I'm sorry.
Speaker 1: And the Son's role players aren't that great either, because
Speaker 1: the Suns still have their fatal flaws. The reliants on
Speaker 1: pull up jump shooting. I think Nurkic man, Carson, you
Speaker 1: were right, dude. I was so wrong, Dude. I tried
Speaker 1: to go to battle for nurk Bro. I tried to
Speaker 1: go to battle for nirk and I can't do it anymore.
Speaker 4: Dude.
Speaker 5: He gets his he flips his hips, and that man
Speaker 5: is running in cement back to the hoop. He is
Speaker 5: just a mobile.
Speaker 1: So like, I'm not confident in either of these teams.
Speaker 1: But to me, the MAVs just don't have that third
Speaker 1: guy and the Sun's due again. That feels like a
Speaker 1: copound answer because the Suns are very flawed, Like I
Speaker 1: can see them getting smoked defensively because a Nurkic. I
Speaker 1: can see them being way too relying on pull up
Speaker 1: jumpers and notching ninety five to one hundred points in
Speaker 1: a couple of games because they just go cold from there.
Speaker 1: They don't get enough pressure on the rim. But they
Speaker 1: got d Booking KD, and they got Beal they can
Speaker 1: rely on in certain games. And they got Grayson Allen
Speaker 1: who's been great as a spot up guy and I
Speaker 1: think he could swing a series. And there's just a
Speaker 1: few more role guys in Phoenix that I trust, so
Speaker 1: marginally I would go with the Suns, but I don't
Speaker 1: have a ton of faith in either of these teams.
Speaker 3: I'm with you.
Speaker 4: The one argument for the MAVs would be that Luca's
Speaker 4: very likely going to be the best player on the
Speaker 4: floor in a theoretical matchup between these two or he's
Speaker 4: just the best player between these two teams, and in
Speaker 4: playoff settings has been monumentally great. Has taken his unbelievable
Speaker 4: regular season level and then gotten up another level. Part
Speaker 4: of that maybe just from insane pull up shooting runs,
Speaker 4: but there is the physical imposition he gets where he
Speaker 4: wants on the floor. He's one of the three best
Speaker 4: playmakers in the league, and so single handedly he can
Speaker 4: carry you to some pretty special stuff. But it is
Speaker 4: different when you're talking about a team that has two
Speaker 4: top ten players in my opinion, in Kadie and Book,
Speaker 4: both of whom can absolutely light you on fire. Kyrie
Speaker 4: is still an unbelievable offensive player, but I think that
Speaker 4: there's a level of separation between those guys and him.
Speaker 4: And then it is the third dynamic creator off the dribble,
Speaker 4: the third big time shot maker, the third guy who
Speaker 4: can pressure a defense and also play make in Bradley Beal,
Speaker 4: who doesn't exist for the MAVs. The Suns just have
Speaker 4: more overwhelming offensive strengths. They do have issues logan. You
Speaker 4: mentioned the lack of rim pressure, settling for mid range jumpers,
Speaker 4: but they have just the personnel advantages and the spot
Speaker 4: up shooting with Grayson Allen and Eric Gordon, guys who
Speaker 4: have had really, really good pure shooting seasons. And then
Speaker 4: if you look at the other side of the ball,
Speaker 4: it's not exactly a beauty pageant, like the Suns are
Speaker 4: gonna be okay defensively though, and the MAVs have just
Speaker 4: been bad. The MAVs are an awful rebounding team. The
Speaker 4: Sons have been quite a good rebounding team. I just
Speaker 4: think they are the better all around basketball team. But
Speaker 4: I don't think it's likely that either of these teams
Speaker 4: make a deep run because primarily of my concerns on
Speaker 4: the defense side of the ball, and then because of
Speaker 4: some little things offensively.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny if you look at the stats, it's
Speaker 2: pretty clearly Phoenix just based on the stats. And I
Speaker 2: want to dive into this a little bit. Since Dallas
Speaker 2: started eight and two, they're eighteen and twenty in their
Speaker 2: last thirty eight games. In that span, that's been the
Speaker 2: nineteenth best record in the league, seventeenth in offense, twenty
Speaker 2: third in defense, twenty sixth in defensive rebounding. They've had
Speaker 2: a lot of injuries. I want to make sure that
Speaker 2: that's clear. They've had fourteen different players start games for
Speaker 2: them this season. But when Luca and Kyrie both play,
Speaker 2: they're twelve and ten, which is pretty mediocre. On the
Speaker 2: Suns front, Bradley Beal has played in eighteen straight games.
Speaker 2: The Suns are thirteen and five in those eighteen games,
Speaker 2: which is the fourth best record.
Speaker 3: In the league.
Speaker 2: They have the third best offense in the league over
Speaker 2: that span, fourteenth in defense, twenty first defensive rebounding. Not good,
Speaker 2: but better than Dallas has been. So the standings and
Speaker 2: some of the numbers very clearly point the MAVs and
Speaker 2: Suns as very different teams. But it does get complicated
Speaker 2: when you start to look at the playoff setting. Because
Speaker 2: I agree to put it in my notes, I think
Speaker 2: Luca is the best player on either team. I think
Speaker 2: he's a devastating playoff player with the unique capability to
Speaker 2: strangle the pace, to make opposing stars lose confidence too.
Speaker 2: He has uniquely different from Devin Booker and Kevin Durant.
Speaker 2: He has the ability to really physically impose his will
Speaker 2: on an NBA playoff game. I think all of that
Speaker 2: is vitally important. And so this is where I get
Speaker 2: into the kind of playoff setting and I want to
Speaker 2: pitch this back to you guys for a second. So
Speaker 2: if we agree that the core five for Phoenix is
Speaker 2: going to be matchup dependent, but it's gonna probably be
Speaker 2: Bradley Beal, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Grayson Allen, and Eric Gordon,
Speaker 2: with probably Nurkic in for Eric Gordon against teams that
Speaker 2: have bigger centers, and then they'll probably go small against
Speaker 2: other teams. The core five for Dallas, we're probably getting
Speaker 2: Derek Lively and Grant Williams in that four or five spot.
Speaker 2: Right then it's probably gonna be one of either Tim
Speaker 2: Hardaway Junior, Josh Green, or Derek Jones Junior in that
Speaker 2: three spot, depending on again, once what the matchup is.
Speaker 2: This year, they've leaned a lot on Tim Hardaway Junior
Speaker 2: in clutch time, which leads me to believe that they
Speaker 2: probably go that direction.
Speaker 3: I'd probably go with.
Speaker 2: Josh Green or Derek Jones Jr. If it was my decision.
Speaker 2: But it's gonna be one of those guys. And then
Speaker 2: it's Kyrie and Luca. And when you really get down
Speaker 2: to it, and you scale minutes up and you lean
Speaker 2: heavily on those groups, and we acknowledge that there's a
Speaker 2: diminishing return with a third star on the floor that's
Speaker 2: a ball handler and kind of like a heavy ball
Speaker 2: handling type of system.
Speaker 3: Let's pitch it back to you, guys.
Speaker 2: We'll start with you, with you Carson, When you really
Speaker 2: dig into those five guys, which of those two lineup
Speaker 2: groupings do you think has more capability of beating one
Speaker 2: of the higher level playoff teams in the Western Conference.
Speaker 4: It's an interesting question because in some ways that MAVs
Speaker 4: lineup checks more different boxes in that you still have
Speaker 4: your two shot creators, but then on the wings you
Speaker 4: have a bit more physicality. At the very least, you
Speaker 4: have your hyper athletic big who can impact the game
Speaker 4: more defensively and as a rim finisher than Old Nurk,
Speaker 4: who oftentimes look like he's stuck in cement, as Logan mentions.
Speaker 4: So From that perspective, it's interesting because you think, if
Speaker 4: the Suns are gonna get kind of bullied no matter
Speaker 4: how good they are offensively, can they get enough stops
Speaker 4: against another great team? And maybe the formula is and again,
Speaker 4: both these teams are flawed defensively, but it does feel
Speaker 4: like in terms of the physicality arena, the MAVs match
Speaker 4: up a little bit better. Maybe that's their advantage, and
Speaker 4: then Luca goes nuclear, But to me, the principle is
Speaker 4: the same. I just think that's a more skilled offensive
Speaker 4: lineup for the Suns. There's more ball handling, the more
Speaker 4: dynamic shooting. Overall, neither of these teams are gonna win
Speaker 4: a series on the back of their defense. So I
Speaker 4: would take the team that I think has the better
Speaker 4: path to to elite offense.
Speaker 1: I would take Phoenix for two reasons. One, if the
Speaker 1: Mavericks are forced to play the michelin Man Grant Williams,
Speaker 1: they are doomed.
Speaker 5: Oh my god, they're done.
Speaker 4: For Two, that's Batman bro.
Speaker 3: Put some respect on that dude, Logan.
Speaker 2: Logan has just been just just straight slander in this episode.
Speaker 1: Williams leaves is such a Bozoe man, all right, the
Speaker 1: second reason I know that in theory, Dallas has the
Speaker 1: personnel to be a good deal. I get what you
Speaker 1: guys are saying with Grant's a little bit of a
Speaker 1: stockier for should be able to match up physically well.
Speaker 1: Derek Jones Junior has bounced. Derek Lively is a great athlete.
Speaker 1: I've seen two really bad games, and I don't know
Speaker 1: if there were injuries in these games, but there's two
Speaker 1: games to me from Dallas that stick out like sore thumbs.
Speaker 1: The one where Luca went crazy against Atlanta and Atlanta
Speaker 1: kept pace that entire game. And then the other game
Speaker 1: that I point to is when Dallas played Phoenix. Man
Speaker 1: I was talking trash to all of my friends who
Speaker 1: are Phoenix fans. I was like, oh, dude, Luca owns
Speaker 1: your poverty franchise. You guys stink. And then the Suns
Speaker 1: literally just came back and blew the Mavericks out. Like
Speaker 1: you can have your qualms about the Sun's defense, I
Speaker 1: don't think Dallas's defense is in a different enough tier.
Speaker 1: I don't think their athletic advantages are enough to really
Speaker 1: make a meaningful difference to me. I think they're you know, uh,
Speaker 1: they're wet paper bag defenses. Man, you know, they just
Speaker 1: you tear right through.
Speaker 4: Them, and they're slower on the perimeter. Dallas, they may
Speaker 4: be stronger, but they're slower.
Speaker 2: They are I'm gonna I'm gonna take Luca and the MAVs.
Speaker 2: I think let's use this as example. I don't think
Speaker 2: either team has really any chance to beat Denver, but
Speaker 2: let's look at like a Clippers matchup, Like the Clippers
Speaker 2: would just play Suns basketball and do it better and
Speaker 2: beat them the I could see Luca strangle the pace,
Speaker 2: playing them into their worst tendencies, physically imposing his will
Speaker 2: on the game, picking on matchups like, I don't think
Speaker 2: either of these teams are that good or that either
Speaker 2: of them really have that type of you know, I
Speaker 2: should say not. They both have championship potential, but like
Speaker 2: I mean like real, like you know, like substantial championship potential.
Speaker 2: But if I had to pick one guy to notch
Speaker 2: an upset in a later round and maybe just sneak
Speaker 2: his way in, I'm gonna take Luca in that group.
Speaker 2: But I think I think a lot of people are
Speaker 2: off of his scent after last year's uh missing the playoffs,
Speaker 2: and I just I think I'm on the fence between
Speaker 2: the two, and given that circumstance, I'm gonna lean towards Luca.
Speaker 2: All right, last one before we get out of here,
Speaker 2: We'll start with you, Carson, who would you rather build
Speaker 2: a franchise around if you were starting from scratch right now?
Speaker 2: Anthony Edwards or shake Gil just Alexander.
Speaker 4: This is a real heartbreaker of a question, And in fact,
Speaker 4: we did before this season like to top ten guys
Speaker 4: twenty five and hunderd to build a franchise around. I
Speaker 4: believe I had them either three and four, four and five,
Speaker 4: and I had ANT one spot above SGA. I think
Speaker 4: I'm gonna flip now, Oh did I have SGA above?
Speaker 5: Had we both had SGA four? ANT five?
Speaker 4: All rightect, I never switch up. I'm sticking with SGA then,
Speaker 4: And I think that what's talk about this conversation is
Speaker 4: we are viewing a more final version of SGA. It
Speaker 4: just in that he's a couple years older. I'm not
Speaker 4: saying either of these dudes are totally what they're going
Speaker 4: to be for the rest of their careers, but I
Speaker 4: think that Ant still has more room for growth. But
Speaker 4: there's a big gap between these two is basketball players
Speaker 4: right now, there's a big gap, and I think the
Speaker 4: key advantages for me with SGA are, first of all,
Speaker 4: the level of control that he imposes over a basketball game,
Speaker 4: the ability out of pick and roll to dictate the pace,
Speaker 4: to playmake at a really high level. He just is
Speaker 4: the captain of an offense in a way that Ant
Speaker 4: isn't right now, and I'm not sure sure he will be.
Speaker 4: I also think you look at the versatility and shot
Speaker 4: making that SGA has, it's legitimately unbelievable. He's one of
Speaker 4: the hardest dudes in the league to stay in front of,
Speaker 4: not because of straight line speed, but because of maybe
Speaker 4: the nastiest change in pace that I've ever seen. Nobody
Speaker 4: shifts gears like SGA. But then he is also one
Speaker 4: of the most devastating mid range shooters in the league.
Speaker 4: He's so great at using physicality to create space there.
Speaker 4: He has this ballerina body control where he's just going
Speaker 4: to get where he wants on the floor, and at
Speaker 4: the same time, like he's been crazy efficient out of
Speaker 4: the post when he wants, He's got such good footwork
Speaker 4: and body control down there. He just has a mastery
Speaker 4: of the skilled scoring and doing that in various different
Speaker 4: ways that ANT doesn't have. And these guys are both
Speaker 4: elite athletes, it's just different. Ant is like your prototypical
Speaker 4: ninety ninth percentile strength, ninety nine percentile explosiveness, ninety nine
Speaker 4: percentile vertical ability. SGA's athleticism, to me, is in the shiftiness.
Speaker 4: It's in the balance, the body control. He just does
Speaker 4: stuff in the paint navigating that nobody else on the
Speaker 4: planet can. And then I think if you look at
Speaker 4: the defensive side of the ball, I think if they
Speaker 4: have very similar potential. I do like SGA a bit
Speaker 4: more as a help defender, and I think that what
Speaker 4: we've seen from him in terms of defensive playmaking this
Speaker 4: year has been super impressive. His length can just be
Speaker 4: game changing at times. ANT has that stronger base, So
Speaker 4: it's similar, But I do think it comes down to
Speaker 4: the like all around dominant, versatile scoring plus really high
Speaker 4: end playmaking. With SGA, ANT, I think you have the
Speaker 4: crazy rim pressure, you have the pull up shooting stretches,
Speaker 4: but you just don't have that sort of all around
Speaker 4: polish and I'm not sure if you will on the
Speaker 4: level of SGA. But I think both these guys are
Speaker 4: perennial MVP candidates for years and years.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think if you're ever in this scenario, you
Speaker 1: were blessed as an NBA franchise. If these were the
Speaker 1: two guys you were picking between, I'm actually gonna flop here, Carson.
Speaker 1: I also had SGA four and ANT five, And I
Speaker 1: think you make a great point. Sga is definitely more realized,
Speaker 1: you know, to his full potential. I don't think Ant's
Speaker 1: done yet, And I just think the physical level of
Speaker 1: pressure that he is going to be able to put
Speaker 1: on the rim. I think that the special kind of strong,
Speaker 1: vertical quick athlete that he is.
Speaker 5: I just think that.
Speaker 1: I don't think he's done. I mean, I think we're
Speaker 1: gonna see him just become effectively unstoppable. And I think
Speaker 1: his game Sga, I think.
Speaker 5: Is more tailored to the playoffs right now.
Speaker 1: Like if you're asking me for this season, what guy
Speaker 1: do I want more to go on a run? There's
Speaker 1: a lot more polished from that SGA. I trust him
Speaker 1: way more as an offensive engine and initiator, but I
Speaker 1: see a different ceiling because of ants athletic advantages. That
Speaker 1: being said, I think you make a good point I
Speaker 1: don't know if Ant's ever going to be the I
Speaker 1: don't think and is capable of becoming the kind of
Speaker 1: pull up and unstoppable shooter that SGA is in the wing,
Speaker 1: he is one of the most special in the league.
Speaker 1: But I'm going to take those physical advantages. I just
Speaker 1: think that matters a little more. I think that Ant
Speaker 1: is going to be an unstoppable tank and if he
Speaker 1: can couple that with elite pull up jump shooting, weaponizing
Speaker 1: his rim pressure into playmaking, like, I just think he's
Speaker 1: got He's already great, but I think there is even
Speaker 1: more room to grow with Anthony Edwards.
Speaker 5: So I'm gonna take Ant the the you.
Speaker 2: Know, kind of important phrase that kind of dictates this
Speaker 2: conversation is starting a franchise with Because a couple of caveats,
Speaker 2: I do think SGA is a better basketball player right now,
Speaker 2: and I do think that he would navigate a playoff
Speaker 2: environment a little bit better than it right now.
Speaker 3: I do think that they are very very.
Speaker 2: Different archetypes of players, and so it can also get
Speaker 2: complicated in the sense that, like some of the stuff
Speaker 2: that Anthony Edwards is not good at is kind of
Speaker 2: natural for his archetype. And some of the stuff that
Speaker 2: SGA is not good at is kind of natural for
Speaker 2: his archetype, and so on and so forth. The here's
Speaker 2: the big difference for me. I think Anthony Edwards is
Speaker 2: not only on a trajectory in the bigger picture that
Speaker 2: I think could take him to a significantly higher level
Speaker 2: than he is now, but he also has the I
Speaker 2: think he's a more natural fit alongside other stars. Anthony
Speaker 2: Edwards is actually a decent off ball scorer, and I
Speaker 2: mean that off the move, like coming off of off
Speaker 2: ball screens, cutting to the rim, and he's just a
Speaker 2: much better catch and shoot player, which is a significant
Speaker 2: advantage when it comes to playing alongside other players around
Speaker 2: the league. SGA has just a tiny bit of that,
Speaker 2: like heliocentric When the ball's in my hands and I'm
Speaker 2: in rhythm, everything looks good, but then my value tends
Speaker 2: to take a dip when I'm not on the ball
Speaker 2: as much as much. And then everything, everything with Anthony
Speaker 2: Edwards is a pretty strong indicator of him being a
Speaker 2: great shooter in the long run. For starters his last
Speaker 2: twenty five games, because remember at the beginning of this year,
Speaker 2: he was kind of a little bit rough around the edges. Offensively,
Speaker 2: Anthony everags the last twenty five game game twenty seven
Speaker 2: points per game, five rebounds, five assists, forty nine percent
Speaker 2: from the field, forty one percent from three to eighty
Speaker 2: four percent from the line, and he's on like pretty
Speaker 2: decent volume from three. He's taking something like six threes
Speaker 2: a game over that span, So like that's a that's
Speaker 2: a third of the season that he's been a high volume,
Speaker 2: forty percent three point shooter. And like you see it
Speaker 2: in the foul shooting, you see it in the hot
Speaker 2: stretches of pull up shooting. Like I think when we
Speaker 2: fast forward a few years, he's going to be a
Speaker 2: devastating combination of downhill force and power with pull up shooting.
Speaker 2: And again, like if I'm starting a franchise, I know
Speaker 2: that I can bring in another high usage offensive player
Speaker 2: and that Ant's going to be able to kind of
Speaker 2: like fit in with him well and make that all work.
Speaker 2: I also think, you know, Carson, you mentioned Shay's off
Speaker 2: ball defense, and I agree, he's excellent instincts and length
Speaker 2: and ability to kind of just get in and make plays.
Speaker 2: But the important distinction there is, like Aunt's still not
Speaker 2: very good at that stuff off the ball, and and
Speaker 2: like I think there's a version of this five years
Speaker 2: from Like when I think about twenty seven year old
Speaker 2: Anthony Edwards, I think about a guy that could be
Speaker 2: the best player in the world. That's the potential that
Speaker 2: I think he has. Whereas like Shay, I think he
Speaker 2: kind of is already pretty close to what his ceiling
Speaker 2: is at this point, and there are some areas where
Speaker 2: he can prove specifically off the ball, right, But like,
Speaker 2: to me, Aunt is already pretty close to as good
Speaker 2: as Shay is, and he's got so much more room
Speaker 2: for improvement. And then you guys, know me just in general,
Speaker 2: I talked about this with Luca versus KD, but like,
Speaker 2: give me the guy who can physically impose as well
Speaker 2: on the game. Like like that, that, to me is
Speaker 2: is such a huge element to winning in the playoffs.
Speaker 2: Like you can just imagine Ant being this ridiculous matchup
Speaker 2: attacking back to the basket guard in the postseason, and
Speaker 2: like it just he thrives in like ultra physical environments
Speaker 2: and you know, I think I think it that to
Speaker 2: me is just the differentiator in the long run. I
Speaker 2: do have one last question before we get out of here,
Speaker 2: and we'll start with you logan like, are you expecting
Speaker 2: Shay to have a drop off inefficiency and production in
Speaker 2: this postseason or do you think he'll be able to
Speaker 2: sustain it.
Speaker 5: That's a great question.
Speaker 1: I think you made a great point, Jason about him
Speaker 1: being a heliocentric player. I think that in that archetype,
Speaker 1: I think those players are just always more susceptible because
Speaker 1: I mean, just think about it.
Speaker 5: I mean, your every.
Speaker 1: Possession you're having to play defense, you're on ball, then
Speaker 1: on the other side of the ball, you're got the
Speaker 1: ball in your hands, like you're just gonna get inherently tired.
Speaker 1: Had a series who at a game it's just gonna
Speaker 1: wear you down. So I think he is more susceptible
Speaker 1: to that. I don't know, man, I don't think I
Speaker 1: could ever predict Sga to Like Faull, he's so dynamic,
Speaker 1: he can get to whatever spot he wants. Now, I
Speaker 1: think that's the big factor is that game five, Game six,
Speaker 1: Game seven, Is he gonna be downtrodden?
Speaker 5: Is he gonna be worn out? That scares me.
Speaker 1: At the end of regular games where he's playing forty minutes,
Speaker 1: is he gonna be worn out.
Speaker 5: I don't know.
Speaker 1: That's the one area where I think he could maybe
Speaker 1: be susceptible to Luwells, to falling off. But in terms
Speaker 1: of shot diet, decision making, shots he gets to. There
Speaker 1: are very few players in the NBA that I expect
Speaker 1: their games will translate better to the postseason because SGA
Speaker 1: can do it from everywhere. He's a great playmaker, He
Speaker 1: does everything. My only concern is just him getting really
Speaker 1: worn out and tired from having to carry the burden,
Speaker 1: you know, that entire offensive burden.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would expect SGA to be a guy who
Speaker 4: actually scales really well to the playoffs. And I think,
Speaker 4: do you make a great point, Jason, in an advantage
Speaker 4: that Ant has and a lot of the great playoff
Speaker 4: risers have, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leondard, they are dudes who
Speaker 4: can impose themselves with strength. The ultimate advantage of that
Speaker 4: is that you get to your spots no matter what
Speaker 4: in that physical environment. I feel like SGA is the
Speaker 4: exception though, in that he is so masterful with the
Speaker 4: pace that he plays at that I can't really see
Speaker 4: people keeping him out of the paint, even in that
Speaker 4: playoff environment. Again, he's not gonna do it with strength,
Speaker 4: but he's gonna do that with those shifts and gears
Speaker 4: and he doesn't have to get to the rim. And
Speaker 4: at this stage, really it's mostly threes or its attempts
Speaker 4: at the rim, and he's like a crazy contestant finisher
Speaker 4: because he's such a great athlete and he has been
Speaker 4: a really good shooter this year and continue to grow there.
Speaker 4: But if you do try to wall off an SGA drive, well,
Speaker 4: he can just devastate you with that short mid range
Speaker 4: shot making. And he's the better playmaker at this stage.
Speaker 4: So I expect Sga to have quite a debut in
Speaker 4: the playoffs as the guy he's been there before, but
Speaker 4: not as this superstar player. But I also think ants
Speaker 4: a guy who's gonna get better in the playoffs and
Speaker 4: anson guy who's already gotten better in the playoffs, because yeah,
Speaker 4: his strength scales very well and his pull up shooting
Speaker 4: has been really good in those settings. But I think
Speaker 4: Sga is a dude who I mean, maybe not in
Speaker 4: the world where Nicol Yokitch exists, but you know, in
Speaker 4: a post Jokic world, I think he have best player
Speaker 4: in the world ceiling too, along with that.
Speaker 2: An important thing we didn't even touch to is like
Speaker 2: ants getting you twenty seven five and five on forty
Speaker 2: nine eighty four splits, And there's no question that the
Speaker 2: thunder provide a significantly more spaced out environment.
Speaker 3: For Forsha to operate.
Speaker 2: And just the by virtue of just having a legitimate
Speaker 2: stretch five that you have to close out to and
Speaker 2: just all of the ball handling and shooting around him,
Speaker 2: I think it's a little bit more of an easy setup.
Speaker 2: The reason why I brought that up is as kind
Speaker 2: of a playoff scenario is specifically the shifty types, and
Speaker 2: I'll give you an example, James Harden. The shifty types
Speaker 2: that lean heavily on heliocentric shot creation from the same
Speaker 2: spots on the floor. One of the things we see
Speaker 2: is like, yeah, that hesitation moves pretty nasty. But what
Speaker 2: if a singular perimeter defender sees at one hundred and
Speaker 2: fifty times in two weeks. You know, James Harden has
Speaker 2: this ridiculous you know, left to right crossover, step back
Speaker 2: jump shot combination like set of counter moves that he uses,
Speaker 2: and then what ends up happening is the same perimeter
Speaker 2: defender sees it one hundred and fifty times and by
Speaker 2: game six. In game seven, he has a good read
Speaker 2: on that hesitation. He has a good read on when
Speaker 2: he's going to go to that left to right cross.
Speaker 2: He has a good read on how to kind of
Speaker 2: like close the gap on that step back jump shot
Speaker 2: without fouling and making it into a tougher shot. Whereas
Speaker 2: like the supremely gifted athletes, they tend to actually get
Speaker 2: more and more separation as series prolonged because they're the
Speaker 2: energizer Bunny, because they're those groups. And I agree with you, Carson.
Speaker 2: I don't think it's not that I don't think Shay
Speaker 2: has best in the world potential. I just think I
Speaker 2: think if I had to rank where they are right now,
Speaker 2: SGA is clearly over ant. But for me personally, if
Speaker 2: I had to rank ceilings, I think ant ceiling is
Speaker 2: higher than SGA's right now.
Speaker 3: Just because of those gifts. All right, we've got to
Speaker 3: get out of here.
Speaker 4: You got one real quick thing about why SJA feels
Speaker 4: different in the playoffs to me than Harden. I do
Speaker 4: think it comes down to the of counters as one thing.
Speaker 4: I think that he simply has more moves that he
Speaker 4: can turn to at any point. I think right the
Speaker 4: spins creating separation with the alarm bar into the mid
Speaker 4: range step back, and that's the other key point. Harden
Speaker 4: was very reliant on the step back three specifically, And
Speaker 4: you talked earlier about Tatum the concerns with the volatility
Speaker 4: about his pull up, his reliance on pull up threes,
Speaker 4: and Harden just never shot as well in the playoff
Speaker 4: settings from deep So I totally agree about the predictability
Speaker 4: with him, and I just or SGA. I just feel
Speaker 4: is different because he gets to his spots in and
Speaker 4: around the paint, and because he is so creative and
Speaker 4: versatile in those spots.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know, I want to be clear, I'm not
Speaker 2: comparing SGA to Harden in terms of like I expect
Speaker 2: him to be a playoff flame out.
Speaker 3: That's not what I mean.
Speaker 2: I just mean more like a guard shot creator that
Speaker 2: doesn't necessarily rely on supreme athleticism to get to his spots,
Speaker 2: but relies more on like the you know, kind of
Speaker 2: the change of pace and change of direction kind of stuff.
Speaker 2: Like I do think that, I do think it's on
Speaker 2: the table, and I'm just curious to see. I am
Speaker 2: curious to see how SGA handles real playoff game planning,
Speaker 2: and like what happens if you don't, Like, let's say
Speaker 2: they run into two Minnesota. What does Jaden McDaniels guarding
Speaker 2: SGA look like in game six? What does it look
Speaker 2: like in game seven? I'm just curious, that's all it is.
Speaker 2: And like just NBA history tells us the supreme athlete types,
Speaker 2: they tend to be less susceptible to that kind of
Speaker 2: thing in late series than the more finesse oriented types.
Speaker 2: But to be clear, I do not think SGA is
Speaker 2: the next James Hard and I never intended for it
Speaker 2: to be like that. That was just kind of an
Speaker 2: example of just playoff, just kind of the dynamic that
Speaker 2: shifts as you get later into a playoff series.
Speaker 3: All right, Carson, before.
Speaker 2: We get out of here, can you guys tell us
Speaker 2: about what you guys are working on over at NERD
Speaker 2: Sash right now?
Speaker 4: Absolutely. So, we're doing three shows a week. We're talking
Speaker 4: both NBA and NFL, but the sense of Super Bowl
Speaker 4: is coming up that is going to be overwhelming the NBA.
Speaker 4: And then we also do some trivia stuff and if
Speaker 4: you want to check out our YouTube page, just look
Speaker 4: up nerd Sash. On top of our full shows, we
Speaker 4: are doing some in depth video essay breakdown sort of
Speaker 4: stuff where we'll take a specific player or team and
Speaker 4: for ten twelve minutes will really dive deep in there
Speaker 4: with film. So if you're interested in that, that's all
Speaker 4: at the nerd Sesh YouTube page.
Speaker 2: Carson and Logan do an amazing job over there at nerds.
Speaker 2: Make sure you get over there and subscribe and support
Speaker 2: those guys. We will see you guys, Carson and Logan
Speaker 2: two weeks from today. Everybody else, I will see you
Speaker 2: guys on Monday.
Speaker 1: The volume