1
00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:02,400
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

2
00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:08,240
Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we

3
00:00:08,280 --> 00:00:13,800
Speaker 2: go from throwing out so spect I'm saying it's a

4
00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:15,080
Speaker 2: cash touchdown.

5
00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:18,920
Speaker 1: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

6
00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:19,360
Speaker 1: go to win.

7
00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:21,720
Speaker 3: That's incredible.

8
00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:24,759
Speaker 2: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

9
00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:29,160
Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate Kabinet.

10
00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:36,320
Speaker 4: And we are underway. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast,

11
00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:39,120
Speaker 4: presented by bet MGM. I'm Jill Galant. I'm enjoyed by

12
00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:41,920
Speaker 4: Evan Abrams each and every week. He's our research director

13
00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:44,800
Speaker 4: here at the Action Network. We're gonna dive into all

14
00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:48,479
Speaker 4: of the Sunday NFL action for week ten. Brandon Anderson

15
00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:50,159
Speaker 4: will have his hot reads later in the show, and

16
00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:52,959
Speaker 4: of course Patrick Everson fro Vegas Insider, he's gonna give

17
00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:55,360
Speaker 4: us an update on the sports books in Vegas how

18
00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:58,760
Speaker 4: they fared this NFL Sunday. But Evan, first, let's talk

19
00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:01,200
Speaker 4: Monday Night Football. Bronco Bills. It's got to be better

20
00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:04,280
Speaker 4: than whatever Sunday Night football we're showing right now with Raiders. Jets.

21
00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:08,520
Speaker 4: Bills are seven point home favorites with a total at

22
00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:11,160
Speaker 4: forty six and a half. Now, I want to talk

23
00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:14,200
Speaker 4: about this game Evan, because I'm not sure why the

24
00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:16,000
Speaker 4: spread is what it is, and I wanted to talk

25
00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:19,039
Speaker 4: it out with you because the Bills haven't covered a

26
00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:21,080
Speaker 4: spread in five straight games. They're three and two straight

27
00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:22,760
Speaker 4: up in their last five, but they're zero to five

28
00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:26,039
Speaker 4: against the spread, and the eye test, at least from

29
00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:29,280
Speaker 4: what we've seen from the Bills, and along with the statistics,

30
00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:31,920
Speaker 4: I'm not sure if the Bills should be really laying

31
00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:34,920
Speaker 4: seven right now against the Broncos in this spot, like

32
00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:38,720
Speaker 4: their pass defense and secondary has not been good, and

33
00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:41,280
Speaker 4: on offense they've really stalled. We talked about this every

34
00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:43,840
Speaker 4: week and in their last five games, they only have

35
00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:47,880
Speaker 4: four touchdowns in the first halves so combined in five games.

36
00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:51,120
Speaker 4: So there's no fast starts, there's no explosive over the

37
00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:54,200
Speaker 4: top plays that we're used to seeing. So for me,

38
00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:57,880
Speaker 4: I find when you have a pass defense that's this week,

39
00:01:58,360 --> 00:02:01,160
Speaker 4: it makes me nervous on the cover. And that's what

40
00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:03,320
Speaker 4: I always just kind of worry about. Is this Broncos team,

41
00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:05,720
Speaker 4: you know, maybe they're finally getting it together. How are

42
00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:07,560
Speaker 4: you looking at this game? You want to pick a

43
00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:10,320
Speaker 4: side or a total in this My instinct says to

44
00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:12,640
Speaker 4: take the Broncos. But then you remember you're taking the

45
00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:16,280
Speaker 4: Broncos in the spot, and it's hard to just overlook.

46
00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:17,840
Speaker 2: That I actually have a lot to say about this game.

47
00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:21,720
Speaker 2: I feel like I've been screaming a lot earlier this

48
00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:26,960
Speaker 2: week about feeling like this line was wrong, more so

49
00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:31,080
Speaker 2: just the seven and a half being inaccurate. Now that

50
00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:34,160
Speaker 2: we're down to seven, I'd say I'd probably make the

51
00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:38,360
Speaker 2: game around six and a half area just based off

52
00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:42,480
Speaker 2: of I mean, these teams literally completely opposites of what

53
00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:46,200
Speaker 2: we know them to be, at least earlier in the year.

54
00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:49,840
Speaker 2: And if you look at especially on the defensive side,

55
00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:53,919
Speaker 2: Buffalo completely different, and Denver's flipped as well. Denver looks

56
00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:57,360
Speaker 2: pretty decent. And I will, you know, throw out this

57
00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:01,600
Speaker 2: trend unders ten and one on Monday Night Football, hundred

58
00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:05,280
Speaker 2: fifty five, twenty eight and one on Monday Night Football

59
00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:09,120
Speaker 2: since twenty nineteen. And we're sitting here watching Sunday Night

60
00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:13,639
Speaker 2: Football with another primetime under kind of under wraps here.

61
00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:16,959
Speaker 2: So to me, I thought Denver at seven and a

62
00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:21,080
Speaker 2: half was interesting. It's hard not to like another under.

63
00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:24,720
Speaker 2: Now you're about forty seven and a half with Denver Buffalo,

64
00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:26,680
Speaker 2: so that would be right, that would be your total.

65
00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:30,200
Speaker 2: I think from a touchdown point of view, I listen

66
00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:34,040
Speaker 2: liking Denver in the game. I think Denver's players are

67
00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:38,360
Speaker 2: a bit mispriced, So Javonte at like fourteen to one

68
00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:41,280
Speaker 2: first touchdown or something like that. Like the top four

69
00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:46,080
Speaker 2: players are all Bills, right, So if you like someone Denver,

70
00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:48,600
Speaker 2: so yeah, no, I think I think this is.

71
00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:50,560
Speaker 4: A solid look of it. And part of the thing

72
00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:53,400
Speaker 4: too with this Broncos team is it's kind of trick

73
00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:55,640
Speaker 4: or treat. You don't know really what team we're gonna get.

74
00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:58,320
Speaker 4: Are we getting this team that gave up thirty one

75
00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:01,440
Speaker 4: to the Jets, who can't four touchdown against the Raiders

76
00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:03,520
Speaker 4: or seventy to the Dolphins? Or is it the one

77
00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:06,840
Speaker 4: that held the Chiefs to twenty seven points in two games? Right?

78
00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:09,560
Speaker 4: And now they're coming off this spy, they're facing a

79
00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:13,080
Speaker 4: team where the Bills DVOA and pass defense just continues

80
00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:16,080
Speaker 4: to drop every week. A lot of injuries on that front.

81
00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:18,520
Speaker 4: So I'm with you on a touchdown score perspective, I

82
00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:22,040
Speaker 4: feel like Courtland Sutton is completely mispriced. His touchdowns in

83
00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:24,360
Speaker 4: six of eight games this year, it leads a team

84
00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:27,159
Speaker 4: in red zone targets and as I said, like the

85
00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:29,640
Speaker 4: Bills are twenty eighth and DV Away versus wide receiver one,

86
00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:32,479
Speaker 4: So if the Broncos are trailing late, I like Sutton's

87
00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:35,000
Speaker 4: chances to score. It's the same reason kind of why

88
00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:37,080
Speaker 4: I like the Broncos to cover in this spot, because

89
00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:39,920
Speaker 4: I don't trust the Bills to either start off strong

90
00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:44,040
Speaker 4: or to finish strong. And this is what's gonna counterculture

91
00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:47,080
Speaker 4: of the Bills, because historically, when the Bills win, they

92
00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:49,839
Speaker 4: win big, like seventy five percent or close to seventy

93
00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:52,240
Speaker 4: five percent of all Josh Allen's wins are by seven

94
00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:55,479
Speaker 4: points or more. So usually when they roll, they roll big.

95
00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:58,200
Speaker 4: But we have not seen that over the last five games.

96
00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:01,000
Speaker 4: But I will say from a Bills offense touchdown perspective,

97
00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:03,000
Speaker 4: I do like Gabe Davis. I am seeing him out

98
00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:05,240
Speaker 4: there right now. His prices are all over the place.

99
00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:07,560
Speaker 4: I've seen plus one thirty, I've seen plus two thirty.

100
00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:10,640
Speaker 4: But leads the team in a dot. And this Broncos team,

101
00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:14,640
Speaker 4: even if you include the last three games, their pass

102
00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:17,280
Speaker 4: defense has been horrendous all year. They rank last and

103
00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:20,400
Speaker 4: DV Away overall their last versus wide receiver two, So

104
00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:24,599
Speaker 4: Gabe Davis, especially if Patrick Curtain and Simmons maybe they're

105
00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:26,800
Speaker 4: rotating more to try to stop Stefell on Diggs. I

106
00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:28,520
Speaker 4: think Gave Davis would be the guy that I would

107
00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:31,040
Speaker 4: look at around plus two thirty if you can get

108
00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:35,040
Speaker 4: that same thing as Courtland Sutton also at plus two forty. Right,

109
00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:37,040
Speaker 4: So that's one in night football, Evan. Let's move over

110
00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:41,039
Speaker 4: to Sunday. Now, five games this week, Evan, with totals

111
00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:45,160
Speaker 4: under forty and four of them went over. So overs

112
00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:48,000
Speaker 4: were eight and three today, eight and four for the week,

113
00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:51,320
Speaker 4: Favorites seven and four straight up and six and five

114
00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:54,039
Speaker 4: against the spread today. What was some of the big

115
00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:55,919
Speaker 4: trends that you saw today, Evan, What was the biggest

116
00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:56,680
Speaker 4: thing that stood.

117
00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:56,760
Speaker 1: Out for you?

118
00:05:57,160 --> 00:06:01,279
Speaker 2: Favorites continuing to roll thirty two and ten straight up

119
00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:04,400
Speaker 2: since week eight, So over the last three weeks it's

120
00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:07,920
Speaker 2: been hard to find an underdog money line in either

121
00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:10,159
Speaker 2: year straight up wagers or your partlast thirty two and

122
00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:14,720
Speaker 2: ten for favorites Home teams over five hundred now in

123
00:06:14,760 --> 00:06:18,200
Speaker 2: the last six weeks straight up, so they've been you know,

124
00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:22,240
Speaker 2: kind of keeping up there and overs like you know,

125
00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:24,760
Speaker 2: like you mentioned eight and three and four four zero

126
00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:28,440
Speaker 2: in the afternoon, looking like Sunday Night Football probably gonna

127
00:06:28,440 --> 00:06:32,080
Speaker 2: stay under. But right now unders entering sun Night Football

128
00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:36,520
Speaker 2: eighty seven sixty and one for this season, so still

129
00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:37,560
Speaker 2: still doing pretty well.

130
00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:39,919
Speaker 4: It's yeah, and it's surprising too with how the favorites

131
00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:43,200
Speaker 4: went because this week there's four teams on buy, two

132
00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:45,560
Speaker 4: of them that are always favored in every game. The

133
00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:48,360
Speaker 4: Eagles and the Chiefs. Dolphins have been favored in most

134
00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:50,920
Speaker 4: of their games as well, So there's three teams right

135
00:06:51,480 --> 00:06:53,560
Speaker 4: right off the bat that are very public sides that

136
00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:57,520
Speaker 4: weren't available to bet, So I found that really interesting.

137
00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:00,679
Speaker 4: You know, eight of the games today, if you include

138
00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:03,440
Speaker 4: the Germany game, we're all one score games too, so

139
00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:05,880
Speaker 4: a lot of drama all the way to the end.

140
00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:07,760
Speaker 4: And one of those games, I think, Evan that we

141
00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:11,280
Speaker 4: got to start off with is Browns Ravens because this game,

142
00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:15,400
Speaker 4: this was really really fun, very counter to what AFC

143
00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:18,040
Speaker 4: North Football is too. Usually it's a grinded out kind

144
00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:21,000
Speaker 4: of game. But the Browns win thirty three to thirty one,

145
00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:24,240
Speaker 4: Ravens six and a half point. Home favorites do not

146
00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:28,160
Speaker 4: cover or win, and the total goes way over at

147
00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:29,640
Speaker 4: thirty seven and a half. This is one of the

148
00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:32,640
Speaker 4: lowest totals of the day too, Evan, And this is

149
00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:35,560
Speaker 4: the third Ravens game with a total below forty this year.

150
00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:37,720
Speaker 4: They're now one and two straight up in those games.

151
00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:41,000
Speaker 4: And one thing that I find very interesting as well,

152
00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:42,760
Speaker 4: because we could talk about this game a little bit

153
00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:46,160
Speaker 4: more about I'm already looking ahead and Lamar Jackson in

154
00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:48,360
Speaker 4: his career is three and nine against his spread at

155
00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:51,680
Speaker 4: home versus the AFC North and they're hosting the Bengals

156
00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:53,800
Speaker 4: here coming up on Thursday Night Football as three and

157
00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:54,800
Speaker 4: a half point favorites.

158
00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:58,280
Speaker 2: I don't know the whole and this is where it

159
00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:05,000
Speaker 2: gets tricky, right Marx, remembering a quarterback for doing certain things,

160
00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:07,480
Speaker 2: especially when you're sitting here like the Ravens had that

161
00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:10,320
Speaker 2: game wrapped up. They really should have covered that game.

162
00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:16,360
Speaker 2: It's just it's so crazy to watch the comeback and

163
00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:19,680
Speaker 2: see everything that happened after they had the lead. Here's

164
00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:22,920
Speaker 2: a stat I did look up because I was curious,

165
00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:26,360
Speaker 2: and I think it is something that probably will continue.

166
00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:32,280
Speaker 2: AFC North Divisional games in general, underdogs sixty nine forty

167
00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:36,280
Speaker 2: six and three in the last decade, five hundred or

168
00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:39,559
Speaker 2: better against the spread in nine in the last ten years.

169
00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:43,920
Speaker 2: So maybe it's just the rule and on the favorites.

170
00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:46,760
Speaker 2: Chad and Simon kind of make rules for different quarterbacks

171
00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:50,600
Speaker 2: and make rules for different In my opinion, the rule

172
00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:53,160
Speaker 2: here might just be take underdogs in this division. Every

173
00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:56,959
Speaker 2: time in this division game, you're probably gonna end up

174
00:08:57,960 --> 00:08:59,960
Speaker 2: fifty five sixty percent at the end of the year.

175
00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:05,600
Speaker 2: Just crazy. And obviously Browns get to win, Steelers get

176
00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:09,600
Speaker 2: to win. Obviously Bengals come up short. But crazy.

177
00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:12,439
Speaker 4: Yeah, And now the AFC North that was the one

178
00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:14,520
Speaker 4: thing talking about how close these teams are and how

179
00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:16,720
Speaker 4: close these games tend to be. You know, Ravens are

180
00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:20,040
Speaker 4: seven and three. Two of those losses are to the Steelers,

181
00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:22,160
Speaker 4: and now the Browns today, and then that Colts game

182
00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:25,400
Speaker 4: that was just wild with Gardner midshew so and then

183
00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:27,320
Speaker 4: the Steelers right behind them at six and three, the

184
00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:29,559
Speaker 4: Browns now at six and three, and then the Bengals

185
00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:32,760
Speaker 4: last in the division at five and five. Like that's

186
00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:34,760
Speaker 4: what's crazy right now is that all four teams could

187
00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:38,240
Speaker 4: potentially make the playoffs. And one thing I found crazy

188
00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:40,720
Speaker 4: about this game, too, Evan, is that if you were

189
00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:43,439
Speaker 4: looking at the underend this game, you had to have

190
00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:45,839
Speaker 4: been very nervous pretty much from the second play of

191
00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:47,920
Speaker 4: the game because there was a defensive touchdown on the

192
00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:51,800
Speaker 4: second play. Deshaun Watson. I was very worried about how

193
00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:54,480
Speaker 4: this game was going to go because you thought, Okay,

194
00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:57,760
Speaker 4: the over is the unders cooked the Browns and Watson,

195
00:09:57,800 --> 00:09:59,720
Speaker 4: they're gonna get rolled. This is going to be like

196
00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:01,960
Speaker 4: the Yhawks game and the Lions game that we saw

197
00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:05,520
Speaker 4: where they're just getting beaten by thirty points. And the Ravens,

198
00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:08,760
Speaker 4: you know, their run game at times will look unstoppable,

199
00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:11,080
Speaker 4: like they've got that early long touchdown from Keaton Mitchell,

200
00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:14,280
Speaker 4: they get another from Gus. But where this game count

201
00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:17,880
Speaker 4: came down to was really third down and specifically how

202
00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:20,560
Speaker 4: the Browns performed on third down. Offensively, they were eight

203
00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:23,400
Speaker 4: for sixteen on third down and on defense they held

204
00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:26,000
Speaker 4: the Ravens to two for eight on third down. And

205
00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:30,840
Speaker 4: you know Shaun Watson, he was six for twenty passing

206
00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:34,200
Speaker 4: with seventy nine yards at halftime. At the end of

207
00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:36,720
Speaker 4: the game he finished or in the second half, let's

208
00:10:36,720 --> 00:10:38,560
Speaker 4: just talk about the second half, he was fourteen for

209
00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:40,920
Speaker 4: fourteen throwing the ball an one hundred and thirty five

210
00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:44,760
Speaker 4: yards passing touchdown, twenty five yards rushing. Probably the best

211
00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:46,800
Speaker 4: game that we've ever seen Sean Watson play in a

212
00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:47,600
Speaker 4: Browns uniform.

213
00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:50,160
Speaker 2: That was actually the note that I made fourteen or fourteen.

214
00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:54,000
Speaker 2: Second half was absolutely it was incredible, incredible, And the

215
00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:57,200
Speaker 2: thing that's funny is even in and maybe this is

216
00:10:57,280 --> 00:10:59,679
Speaker 2: just a part of they were They used uh PJ.

217
00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:02,760
Speaker 2: Waller for the hail Mary before the half. PJ. Walker

218
00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:05,160
Speaker 2: came in to throw I believe a few other passes.

219
00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:09,080
Speaker 2: It's just interesting how you know their dynamic. There is

220
00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:11,480
Speaker 2: also about the fact that Walker is a part of

221
00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:15,000
Speaker 2: you know, some things that they execute the offense, obviously

222
00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:19,160
Speaker 2: to Shaun's starter, but kind of interesting how how that

223
00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:23,040
Speaker 2: works out. Baltimore also eight zero to two first quarter

224
00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:27,920
Speaker 2: money line this year that extended today. So great early starters,

225
00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:30,080
Speaker 2: as they did have the lead and they blew it

226
00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:33,000
Speaker 2: in this one. But also Brown's won the game. Browns

227
00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:35,600
Speaker 2: won the game, but never led, so hard to hear.

228
00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:38,480
Speaker 4: They were down thirty to seventeen in the fourth quarter,

229
00:11:38,559 --> 00:11:42,240
Speaker 4: man and then they get that passing touchdown and then

230
00:11:42,280 --> 00:11:44,319
Speaker 4: you see the passco up in the air from from

231
00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:47,240
Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson and it goes to the pick six, and

232
00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:50,000
Speaker 4: you knew that fourteen point swing in less than a

233
00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:52,160
Speaker 4: minute in that game. So it reminded me of that

234
00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:54,320
Speaker 4: Steelers game when the Ravens were playing with the Steelers.

235
00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:57,080
Speaker 4: Just inexplicably had no business winning that game and then

236
00:11:57,120 --> 00:12:00,000
Speaker 4: come back and win that. So we're going to talk

237
00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:02,000
Speaker 4: more about the AFC North as we go, and I

238
00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:04,120
Speaker 4: think we got to start right now with Texans Bengals,

239
00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:07,040
Speaker 4: because the Texans went thirty to twenty seven.

240
00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:07,400
Speaker 2: C J.

241
00:12:07,559 --> 00:12:11,679
Speaker 4: Stroud leads another miraculous comeback, and I mean he kind

242
00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:14,880
Speaker 4: of he won the game, nearly lost it, and then

243
00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:17,040
Speaker 4: won it again, which was really fun the way that

244
00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:20,080
Speaker 4: they went. But now the Texans and CJ. Stroud are

245
00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:22,080
Speaker 4: now four and two straight up and five and one

246
00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:24,480
Speaker 4: against the spread as an underdog this season.

247
00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:26,679
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the interesting thing about this game and

248
00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:30,000
Speaker 2: this line is the entire week leading up, right because

249
00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:32,640
Speaker 2: if you think about the roller coaster of the injuries,

250
00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:36,360
Speaker 2: when you had no Higgin, no te Higgins, and then

251
00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:38,600
Speaker 2: all of a sudden, Miko Collins, you get that news

252
00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:40,720
Speaker 2: or he's not going to play this weekend, and so

253
00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,880
Speaker 2: you're trying to figure out, Yeah, like what pieces are

254
00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:45,959
Speaker 2: going to be in this game? And then all of

255
00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:48,160
Speaker 2: a sudden, you get to Sunday you look at the line.

256
00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:50,800
Speaker 2: I believe the line did close about six and a half,

257
00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:54,720
Speaker 2: which all week you're saying to yourself, well, it's not

258
00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:58,240
Speaker 2: seven for a reason, right, Like, you know, if it

259
00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:01,640
Speaker 2: got to seven, they have more faith in the Bengals.

260
00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:05,480
Speaker 2: It turned out to be right. Uh, some crazy stats

261
00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:08,320
Speaker 2: with CJ. Stroud and we've been kind of going over

262
00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:13,640
Speaker 2: it all season. The touchdowns, yeah, the interceptions. But here's

263
00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:16,760
Speaker 2: a fun one that I dug out. So obviously, now

264
00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:20,320
Speaker 2: the Texans are five and four this year, which makes

265
00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:23,880
Speaker 2: Stroud five and four straight up. So that's the most

266
00:13:23,920 --> 00:13:28,120
Speaker 2: wins for Houston since twenty nineteen, obviously, with four wins

267
00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:34,599
Speaker 2: or less each of the last four seasons. Three seasons

268
00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:41,280
Speaker 2: and not even that but tied. So obviously, he was

269
00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:45,000
Speaker 2: drafted from Ohio State, so he ties the NFL single

270
00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:48,960
Speaker 2: season wins record for a drafted Ohio State Buckeye with

271
00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:49,880
Speaker 2: five wins.

272
00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:51,920
Speaker 1: Guys, the CJ.

273
00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:57,480
Speaker 4: Stroud the record, that's a basic well, and he was

274
00:13:57,520 --> 00:14:00,559
Speaker 4: just completing passes at will today, Like tenty five yard

275
00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:03,360
Speaker 4: passes were just no problem for him. Tank Dell was

276
00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:07,000
Speaker 4: all over the field today. The Bengals came out strong.

277
00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:10,079
Speaker 4: They get that early touchdown, but you could see as

278
00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:12,560
Speaker 4: the game was going on it wasn't about Higgins and

279
00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:15,040
Speaker 4: it wasn't about Jamar Chase being compromised. They had just

280
00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:18,280
Speaker 4: no run game. The Texans really held them in check.

281
00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:20,400
Speaker 4: Now mix and he didn't end up scoring that touchdown,

282
00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:23,120
Speaker 4: But you only had forty six yards rushing. Joe Burrow

283
00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:26,600
Speaker 4: was second with twenty. That can't happen for the Bengals

284
00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:31,040
Speaker 4: to win. And looking at these upcoming schedules, Texans might

285
00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:33,040
Speaker 4: be in the driver's seat in this AFC seuth. We'll

286
00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:35,120
Speaker 4: talk about the Jaguars and forty nine Ers game here

287
00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:38,480
Speaker 4: coming up. But the Texans, they've got the Cardinals coming up,

288
00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:41,880
Speaker 4: who did win today which is hilarious, and Kyler Murray's return.

289
00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:45,960
Speaker 4: But the Texans, they got the Cardinals, the Jaguars, the Broncos,

290
00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:48,520
Speaker 4: and the Jets over the next four games. They've only

291
00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,720
Speaker 4: got two games versus teams who are above five hundred

292
00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:53,760
Speaker 4: for the rest of the year, and the Jaguars and

293
00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:56,680
Speaker 4: the Browns. But then you look on this Bengals side,

294
00:14:57,280 --> 00:14:59,120
Speaker 4: it's a tail of two teams, the Bengals, They've got

295
00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:02,320
Speaker 4: the Ravens, the Steelers, the Jags, the Colts, and they've

296
00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:04,600
Speaker 4: still got the Chiefs in week seventeen. So it's going

297
00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:07,000
Speaker 4: to be a tough road for them at five and

298
00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:09,760
Speaker 4: five just to make the playoffs, whereas the Texans now

299
00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:11,720
Speaker 4: are kind of in the driver's seat either to get

300
00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:14,440
Speaker 4: the AFC South title or at least make a wild

301
00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:15,440
Speaker 4: card in the AFC.

302
00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:18,480
Speaker 2: I was just gonna say that Jags got a loss today, Like,

303
00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:22,000
Speaker 2: not only did the Texans find themselves a win, but

304
00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:24,240
Speaker 2: Jaggs got a loss, which you know, six and three

305
00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:28,760
Speaker 2: year game back. So you know, our colleague Brandon Anderson

306
00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:30,480
Speaker 2: has been talking about it for a long time. But

307
00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:34,480
Speaker 2: the Boyce Island Texans Island is just it's it's crazy.

308
00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:38,520
Speaker 2: And I think today and I took them plus seven

309
00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:41,000
Speaker 2: when flash earlier in the week, I liked Houston in

310
00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:43,080
Speaker 2: this spot. It's a good game, and now you just

311
00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:46,160
Speaker 2: mentioned it. I had a huge circle on my notes today.

312
00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:49,239
Speaker 2: Three straight home games coming up for them, and the opponents,

313
00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:52,920
Speaker 2: you know, aren't the most difficult teams. I believe Jacksonville's

314
00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:56,120
Speaker 2: on that list, but all winnable games, So maybe they

315
00:15:56,120 --> 00:15:59,880
Speaker 2: get a little healthier and it's gonna be interesting and dangerous. Damiko.

316
00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:03,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, and one team. So the Texans are pretty dangerous

317
00:16:03,160 --> 00:16:05,040
Speaker 4: here in the AFC, so it should be interesting to

318
00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:07,640
Speaker 4: see if CJ. Stroud can lead them to the playoffs.

319
00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:11,200
Speaker 4: But when we position ourselves over to the NFC, the

320
00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:14,000
Speaker 4: new dangerous teams in my opinion, is the Minnesota Vikings.

321
00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:18,040
Speaker 4: The Minnesota Vikings beat the Saints today twenty seven to nineteen,

322
00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:21,360
Speaker 4: and they win outright as a home dog. Saints were

323
00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:24,400
Speaker 4: three point favorites. Total goes over a forty and a half.

324
00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:26,720
Speaker 4: But again it's the Vikings, so it's gonna be a

325
00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:29,920
Speaker 4: one score game. You knew that was coming. But I

326
00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:34,720
Speaker 4: said this to you off air, maybe I'm biased. Josh Dobbs,

327
00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:37,480
Speaker 4: to me, is the best story in football because he

328
00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:40,400
Speaker 4: is set up to fail at pretty much every stop.

329
00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:42,160
Speaker 4: When he played for the Titans last year, it was

330
00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:45,000
Speaker 4: in a spots start without Ryan Tannehill. That he comes

331
00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:48,680
Speaker 4: in this year, they basically trade away every single skilled

332
00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:51,320
Speaker 4: position player other than James Connor and markis Brown, and

333
00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:55,680
Speaker 4: they still are covering early and covering for spreadbetters earlier

334
00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:58,560
Speaker 4: and then now they get up by three scores. At halftime,

335
00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:02,320
Speaker 4: He's got two hundred and sixty eight yards one rushing touchdown.

336
00:17:02,800 --> 00:17:05,440
Speaker 4: And then what was almost hilarious about this game too, Evan,

337
00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:07,720
Speaker 4: is not only just the Josh Dobbs narrative and just

338
00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:10,119
Speaker 4: the feel good aspect of the underdog, but then you

339
00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:13,760
Speaker 4: get the true underdog, the Jameis Winston experience in the

340
00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:16,879
Speaker 4: second half with Derek Carr getting hurt because you think, okay,

341
00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:19,720
Speaker 4: here's the Saints. Derek Carr goes down this, they gotta

342
00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:22,359
Speaker 4: go to Taysom Hill, right. Nope, We're going full Jameis

343
00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:25,200
Speaker 4: Winston experience here, and we get an immediate touchdown to

344
00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:27,920
Speaker 4: Crystal Lave to cut the lead to sixteen. That we

345
00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:31,040
Speaker 4: get another touchdown to cut it to eight. But of course,

346
00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:33,159
Speaker 4: as this game goes, you know that Jameis Winston. The

347
00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:35,560
Speaker 4: longer that he is in the game, turnovers are going

348
00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:37,920
Speaker 4: to happen. So there were two interceptions to close out

349
00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,439
Speaker 4: the game. And I mean, the man loves his go routes.

350
00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:41,600
Speaker 1: What can I say?

351
00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:46,919
Speaker 2: This game legitimately has unlimited things to unpack. I just

352
00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:54,160
Speaker 2: there's so many different angles and storylines. Jameis Winston two

353
00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:57,879
Speaker 2: interceptions and two touchdowns. Feels like every single time he

354
00:17:57,920 --> 00:17:59,520
Speaker 2: comes on the field. When I look at the box

355
00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:01,679
Speaker 2: score and I said to myself, I said to myself,

356
00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:03,679
Speaker 2: all right, I watched the game, but like, let me

357
00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:06,080
Speaker 2: get a refresher on what happened here. And you see that,

358
00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:08,720
Speaker 2: you say, oh, well, that happens every time. But when

359
00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:13,120
Speaker 2: you when you look at Minnesota, specifically flipping the page there, Dobbs,

360
00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:15,120
Speaker 2: is this story right? When you think about the last

361
00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:17,840
Speaker 2: few weeks, you say to yourself, well, you know what

362
00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:20,119
Speaker 2: comes out of the NFL? What am I thinking about?

363
00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:23,320
Speaker 2: What is what are people talking about? Kind of is Minnesota?

364
00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:26,520
Speaker 2: It's Minnesota started off all full. Now they've won what

365
00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:28,600
Speaker 2: are they won five in a row? Is that right? Probably?

366
00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:32,160
Speaker 2: And yeah? Uh and now yeah, there's six and four

367
00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:34,000
Speaker 2: in this season. That's I just look the standing six

368
00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:36,920
Speaker 2: and four in the season. They're a game and a

369
00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:38,080
Speaker 2: half back in Detroit.

370
00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:38,199
Speaker 1: Now.

371
00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:39,800
Speaker 2: I don't know if they're going to catch Detroit, but

372
00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:42,639
Speaker 2: I don't necessarily think that's what they're going after. I

373
00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:44,479
Speaker 2: think if they snuck into a playoff spot, they got

374
00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:48,000
Speaker 2: into the wild card, it's a win. Yeah, yeah, it's

375
00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:52,160
Speaker 2: very very crazy they're even in this position and doing

376
00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:55,320
Speaker 2: it without Justin Jefferson. Uh, may I say.

377
00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:56,800
Speaker 4: He's coming back next week? Probably?

378
00:18:57,160 --> 00:18:59,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, And if you look at the schedule at Denver

379
00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:01,920
Speaker 2: Sunday Night football, so maybe they do get him back

380
00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:06,520
Speaker 2: for that. And then you got a little Minnesota primetime

381
00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:09,879
Speaker 2: coming up. See at Denver Sunday Night Football versus Chicago

382
00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:12,800
Speaker 2: Monday Night Football, then a buye. So you're gonna get

383
00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:16,760
Speaker 2: a little Josh Dobbs in your life in primetime coming up.

384
00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:21,000
Speaker 2: But I'll say it from Minnesota's perspective, they just deserve

385
00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:24,199
Speaker 2: to win today. They played better. So I mean, we

386
00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:27,280
Speaker 2: could talk about a few things on the New Orleans side, which, well.

387
00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:28,280
Speaker 4: That's what I was going to talk to you about.

388
00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:30,600
Speaker 4: I was going to ask you about the NFC South

389
00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:33,960
Speaker 4: because now the Saints are five and five, the Bucks

390
00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:36,560
Speaker 4: are four and five, and then you've got the Falcons

391
00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:38,199
Speaker 4: who are five and five. We're not going to talk

392
00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:41,800
Speaker 4: about the Panthers at this stage. But I can't pick

393
00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:44,280
Speaker 4: between these three teams of who I think would win

394
00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:46,600
Speaker 4: this division. Now, obviously, I think from a on paper,

395
00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:49,320
Speaker 4: I think the Saints are the most talented team, But

396
00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:52,000
Speaker 4: if you have Derek Carr quarterback, I can't trust you

397
00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:54,400
Speaker 4: in the red zone. And I think the Bucks are

398
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:56,520
Speaker 4: just a little bit. I don't know if they have

399
00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:59,000
Speaker 4: enough talent to be able to overcome the Saints that

400
00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:00,359
Speaker 4: it was to go ahead to heady and though they

401
00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:02,600
Speaker 4: didn't beat beat the hell out of them earlier this year,

402
00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:04,399
Speaker 4: and then the Falcons, they just can't get out of

403
00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:06,359
Speaker 4: their own way. We'll talk about Falcons Cardinals here in

404
00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:08,800
Speaker 4: a second, but your guess is as good as mine, dude, Like,

405
00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:11,280
Speaker 4: who's gonna win the AFC South at this stage?

406
00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:14,480
Speaker 2: Because I make when I make these division bets, I

407
00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:19,080
Speaker 2: usually try to annoint someone sometimes based off coaching, And

408
00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:21,760
Speaker 2: when you think about it, between Dennis Allen, Todd Bowles,

409
00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:25,200
Speaker 2: and Arthur Smith, I'm just it's you know, it's the

410
00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:27,840
Speaker 2: dumb It's the dumb meme dragon that all of them

411
00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:29,960
Speaker 2: are the dumb one. Uh, it's just.

412
00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:32,440
Speaker 4: Instead of murders Row, it's just murders Bro. I feel

413
00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:37,240
Speaker 4: like I just I just kill me if that's my cup. Yeah,

414
00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:39,479
Speaker 4: all right, we're gonna take a little break here. We'll

415
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:41,000
Speaker 4: talk about some more games here in a second, but

416
00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:42,640
Speaker 4: now it's time for the hot reap from our own

417
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,199
Speaker 4: Brandon Anderson. Brandon, what do you have us looking for

418
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,880
Speaker 4: for early? Week eleven lines Hot rap.

419
00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:55,320
Speaker 5: Day on ice Rights ice Cream said nineteen sound nineteen.

420
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,280
Speaker 3: All right, Week eleven Hot Reid we went one and

421
00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:04,639
Speaker 3: one this week we got colv on both our picks

422
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:07,800
Speaker 3: s defense let us down late. Tot Reid is now

423
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:11,640
Speaker 3: twelve and six on the season, sixty seven percent hit rate.

424
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:17,600
Speaker 3: This is today, I believe the grossest, the nastiest tot

425
00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:20,880
Speaker 3: Reid of the season. Now, if you listen on Friday

426
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,439
Speaker 3: to this podcast, if you were at the look Ahead,

427
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:25,879
Speaker 3: you're gonna be familiar with both these games. So I'm

428
00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:29,320
Speaker 3: gonna start out with Steelers Browns. We grabbed Pittsburgh on

429
00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 3: the look Ahead plus five Classic Raw Raw Tomlin underdog

430
00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:36,440
Speaker 3: spot in the division. It's already down to three and

431
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:38,879
Speaker 3: a half. I still like it, but that's not the

432
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:42,119
Speaker 3: pick here. Going to the same game, we're gonna get uglier.

433
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,200
Speaker 3: Give me the under thirty eight and a half Steelers Browns.

434
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 3: Part of the reason we like that plus five was

435
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:50,400
Speaker 3: the low total, So let's get the under two. Who's

436
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 3: gonna score in this game? We got on one side,

437
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:55,800
Speaker 3: Deshaun Watson who you know he did. He flashed a

438
00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:58,720
Speaker 3: little bit today, he got into the end zone. He

439
00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:01,080
Speaker 3: mostly made plays with his laf if we're being honest.

440
00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:04,160
Speaker 3: But no tackles on that team right now. They're all

441
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:07,520
Speaker 3: banged up, obviously, no Nick Chubb. There's not a lot

442
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:10,879
Speaker 3: of offense. Is Matt Canada's offense gonna score on this

443
00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:14,480
Speaker 3: Browns defense. They're number one dv away, number one against

444
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:16,880
Speaker 3: the pass, number one against the run. They just held

445
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:20,640
Speaker 3: Lamar Jackson, who was on everybody's preseason or sorry, mid

446
00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:23,680
Speaker 3: season MVP pick this week, held him to point oh

447
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 3: two epa per play, basically zero. They got a pick

448
00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:29,960
Speaker 3: six on him. They held the Ravens to two third

449
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:33,959
Speaker 3: down conversions the entire game. This Browns defense is legit.

450
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 3: So was the Steelers, right we know the Steelers defense

451
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 3: is that was good. Not quite as good as the Browns, obviously,

452
00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:43,120
Speaker 3: but they're great against the pass. They're okay against their run.

453
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:46,159
Speaker 3: I think TJ. Watt and all those pass rushers against

454
00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:49,399
Speaker 3: the bad line, missing those tackles, missing those guys to

455
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:52,360
Speaker 3: protect the edge. Good interior, but not on the edge.

456
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:55,000
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna get after Deshaun Watson. I just

457
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:56,640
Speaker 3: don't see a lot of points coming in this game.

458
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:58,920
Speaker 3: That's part of why we like the Steelers here as well.

459
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:03,600
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh game this season averaging thirty seven point six points

460
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:06,399
Speaker 3: a game. All but two Pittsburgh games are at forty

461
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 3: two or below. Brown's games are a little higher forty

462
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:12,359
Speaker 3: two point nine. But we had sixty six points today.

463
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:15,160
Speaker 3: We had a thirty nine to thirty eight Indianapolis game

464
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:17,480
Speaker 3: a few weeks ago with the Browns if you exclude

465
00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:19,840
Speaker 3: those two outliers, because let's be honest, we're not getting

466
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 3: thirty nine to thirty eight here. Outside of those two games.

467
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 3: Browns games are at thirty four point seven points a game.

468
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,359
Speaker 3: So this line thirty eight and a half still a

469
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:31,360
Speaker 3: little too high, and he's start dropping a little bit.

470
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:35,040
Speaker 3: Steelers seven and two to the under so far this season.

471
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:40,159
Speaker 3: Mike Tomlin rode unders, historically the most profitable coach for

472
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 3: road unders in our system at Action Network seventy seven

473
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:45,879
Speaker 3: to fifty four and a one to the under fifty

474
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,760
Speaker 3: nine percent. You've heard this from me before, Deshaun Watson

475
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 3: and Kevin Stefanski when the totals below forty four, which

476
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:56,320
Speaker 3: obviously does here fifty nine percent to the under for Stefanski,

477
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 3: fifty eight percent for Watson, and I think it keeps

478
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 3: a moving down. It is up a half points since open,

479
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:04,160
Speaker 3: but I think it's gonna go back the other way

480
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 3: if it does get to thirty eight or below. Unders

481
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:09,480
Speaker 3: this season at thirty eight or under ten to two

482
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 3: and one entering Sunday Night Football gets to thirty seven,

483
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:14,960
Speaker 3: that's a key number. We want to grab it before that.

484
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:17,919
Speaker 3: Thirty seven or blow The under is seventy nine percent

485
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:21,640
Speaker 3: the last four years. So playing the trends, playing the defense,

486
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:26,160
Speaker 3: some ugly football Steelers Browns under thirty eight and a half.

487
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:29,200
Speaker 3: But I gotta tell you, if you thought that was ugly,

488
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:33,160
Speaker 3: here we go. Give me the New York Football Giants

489
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 3: plus ten at the Commanders. I warned you, I warned

490
00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 3: you on the look ahead. I warned you this was coming.

491
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 3: He's gonna get ugly. I'm sorry. Ten points is just

492
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:45,879
Speaker 3: too many. The total for this game is thirty seven.

493
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 3: Ten out of thirty seven is so many points to

494
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 3: give us. These teams just played three weeks ago and

495
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:56,679
Speaker 3: the Giants won. They won fourteen to seven, and there

496
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:58,800
Speaker 3: are now ten point underdogs. And I know what you're

497
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:02,159
Speaker 3: gonna say Daniel Joe No, no, no, no, Daniel Jones. In that

498
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 3: game it was Tyrod Taylor. I don't know who we're

499
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:07,359
Speaker 3: gonna get here, Tommy DeVito, we might get Danny de Vito,

500
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:09,879
Speaker 3: we might get Matt Barkley coming in that quarterback.

501
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 4: I don't really care.

502
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 3: Ten points is too many. What has Washington done to

503
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:17,040
Speaker 3: earn a ten point advantage against any team? I think

504
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:21,160
Speaker 3: Wink Martindale is gonna blitz him. Howel game, Washington's line

505
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 3: is not great, should disrupt the pass for Washington. The

506
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:28,080
Speaker 3: Giants aren't good. Washington's just not very good either, And

507
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:31,920
Speaker 3: in this rivalry in the division, seven of the last

508
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 3: eight games have been one score games. These teams just

509
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 3: kind of play each other even they have all along.

510
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:41,120
Speaker 3: The Giants have only failed to cover a ten point

511
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:44,360
Speaker 3: spread in one of the last twelve games against Washington.

512
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 3: So this is just too high of a line. Before

513
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 3: the season, when they put out lines for every game

514
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:52,639
Speaker 3: for the whole year, the Giants were one and a

515
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:57,160
Speaker 3: half point favorites in this game. Now they're ten point underdogs. Look,

516
00:25:57,560 --> 00:25:59,880
Speaker 3: I know the Giants are worse than we thought. Are

517
00:25:59,880 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 3: there eleven and a half points worse. Washington's worse than

518
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:05,359
Speaker 3: we thought too, so it's even more than that. This

519
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:07,959
Speaker 3: just doesn't ma any sense to me. Washington has not

520
00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:11,119
Speaker 3: covered this the entire season. They've only covered this four

521
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:14,920
Speaker 3: times the last three seasons combined. And then I got

522
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,919
Speaker 3: a good trend for you here. The Giants, of course,

523
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 3: are losing.

524
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:19,040
Speaker 4: By a lot.

525
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,439
Speaker 3: They got crushed by the Cowboys again. Guess it's not

526
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:25,400
Speaker 3: the Cowboys Commanders. Giants margin victory is now minus fourteen

527
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 3: point eight for the season. That triggers a trend for me.

528
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:30,439
Speaker 3: When you are an underdog with a margin of victory

529
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:33,760
Speaker 3: minus fourteen or worse from week five forward one one

530
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:36,439
Speaker 3: hundred and one fifty two and a one against the

531
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 3: spread sixty six percent, and if you're on the road

532
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:42,439
Speaker 3: as well, where we're obviously adding in some home field advantage,

533
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:45,919
Speaker 3: that jumps to sixty twenty two and a one against

534
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 3: the spread seventy three percent. For those underdogs, these teams

535
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:53,400
Speaker 3: that everybody thinks are terrible, including in the last calendar year,

536
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 3: who've had six of those games, three road underdogs, one

537
00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 3: outright as those huge underdogs, just like the Giants are here,

538
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 3: Let's get ugly Giants plus ten at Commanders so week

539
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 3: eleven Hot Raids, Steelers, Brown's under thirty eight and a

540
00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:16,920
Speaker 3: half and New York Football Giants plus ten on the road.

541
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:20,440
Speaker 3: It's ugly, it's the hot read. Let's get it.

542
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 4: The Action Network podcast is presented by bet MGM used

543
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,199
Speaker 4: bonus code Action when signing up to get up to

544
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:29,640
Speaker 4: fifteen hundred dollars paid back in bonus bets if your

545
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:38,880
Speaker 4: first bet loses. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

546
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 4: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

547
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:47,200
Speaker 4: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

548
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 4: Gamba problem called one eight hundred gambler. Now let's look

549
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,119
Speaker 4: at the rest of the slate on Sunday. First game

550
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 4: we're gonna start with is forty nine Ers Jaguars. So

551
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:58,880
Speaker 4: the forty nine Ers win very easily thirty four to three.

552
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:01,480
Speaker 4: The total does go under a forty four and a half,

553
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:03,480
Speaker 4: and the forty nine Ers cover easily. As I said,

554
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:07,919
Speaker 4: as three point favorites. Evan, this is I've seen this

555
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:11,159
Speaker 4: game before. You know the Steelers in Week one, the

556
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:15,000
Speaker 4: Cowboys in Week five, now the Jaguars. This is basically

557
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:17,879
Speaker 4: what the Niners are with Christian McCaffrey and fully healthy.

558
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,880
Speaker 4: And since getting McCaffrey, the Niners are eighteen and four

559
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:23,239
Speaker 4: straight up in fifteen and seven against the spread. And

560
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:26,200
Speaker 4: I bring that up because three of those losses came

561
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 4: in the previous three games.

562
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I want to be very clear about this because

563
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 2: I feel like it makes for better podcasts. I was

564
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:34,720
Speaker 2: completely wrong with this game. I had the Jaguars plus

565
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 2: three and a half, Like I just I liked jackson

566
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 2: not even that I like Jacksonville in the space, you

567
00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 2: aren't the only one. Yeah, And the thing with it

568
00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 2: was rest I didn't care about the losing streak. On

569
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 2: the other side, I think I think the thing I

570
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 2: think I ignored, which I probably shouldn't have. You know, Deebo

571
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 2: wasn't there for a lot of the losing streak. Now

572
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:57,719
Speaker 2: coming back definitely helps the offense. CMC didn't even need

573
00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 2: to score today obviously, streak now broken in seventeen games

574
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 2: for San Francisco to do everything they need to do

575
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 2: on offense. They scored thirty four today after scoring seventeen

576
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 2: and three straight games after they had that cumongous long

577
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 2: thirty plus point streak that they were on. But yeah,

578
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 2: they humiliated Jacksonville. And the thing that's very frustrating. I

579
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 2: don't want to put it all on Lawrence, but as

580
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 2: soon as you look at Trevor and the what they've

581
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 2: done in Jacksonville and how good they've been, and you

582
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 2: want to anoint the team and Peterson and especially Trevor,

583
00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 2: and then you see this and this is what happens.

584
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 2: It's very tough. But listen, you do get a Tennessee

585
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 2: team at home next week. It's a good bounce back

586
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 2: spot if for scoring just three points, so we should

587
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 2: get a different Jacksonville game there. And listen, when you

588
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 2: lose the turnover battle, and I want to make this

589
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:02,240
Speaker 2: very clear, lose the turnover battle for nothing, which Jacksonville

590
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 2: did today against San Francisco. I looked this up. You

591
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 2: only win four point one percent of games, you only

592
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 2: cover six percent of games since nineteen ninety, so it just.

593
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 4: I feel like you didn't need to look that up.

594
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 2: Though.

595
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 4: I feel like that was almost like it goes without enough.

596
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 4: I'm not saying that it's not important to know that.

597
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 4: I know, no, no, I get it, wouldn't you know.

598
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:22,200
Speaker 4: But at the same time, when I hear that, I'm like, yeah,

599
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 4: that makes sense. Yeah, Because the one thing about this game, too,

600
00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 4: and what made sense for me is why I felt

601
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:31,479
Speaker 4: like I saw this game already a few times already

602
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:34,520
Speaker 4: this year, is that we saw it against Dallas and

603
00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 4: we saw it even in Week one against Pittsburgh. Is

604
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 4: that you take a couple three and outs, you maybe

605
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 4: throw an early interception before you know what you're down twenty.

606
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:45,640
Speaker 4: And that's what this Niners team is really defined designed

607
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 4: to do, especially now getting Chase Young on the other side,

608
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 4: with Nick Bosa just terrorizing guys. And it's funny that

609
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 4: you say that you're not sure if this should be

610
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 4: on Morris, because I wrote that down too. I wasn't

611
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 4: sure if this game was totally his fault because he

612
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:01,240
Speaker 4: did have two picks and if it was overall it

613
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 4: was an awful game for him, But he was sacked

614
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 4: five times. He was not protected at all, and I

615
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,560
Speaker 4: feel like Doug Peterson as a coach did not have

616
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 4: his team prepped for this overwhelming pass rush that's coming.

617
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 4: This isn't the first game of the year. You know,

618
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 4: we have seen this team on tape many times what

619
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 4: they do, and sometimes obviously tape is easier to dissect

620
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:24,760
Speaker 4: than what's happening on the field. But at the same time,

621
00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 4: you have to be knowing that they're going to come

622
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 4: after you and they're going to be basically daring you

623
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 4: to throw it over the top. And they didn't really

624
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 4: do that today with Jacksonville. Most of their yards per

625
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 4: attempt were pretty down. So for me, yeah, I feel

626
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 4: like as well the Jaguars. They were in the Niners

627
00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 4: territory twice. They pissed down their leg both times with

628
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 4: those fumbles, the Lawrence fumble and then the Christian Kirk fumble,

629
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 4: where I thought that could get them back in the game.

630
00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 2: I like the spot next week because it is six

631
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 2: and a half not seven, and teams after they score

632
00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 2: three points or less seventy seven to fifty one and

633
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 2: four again to spread sixty percent last twenty years. So

634
00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 2: it is a decent spot with Jacksonville, especially under that touchdown.

635
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:09,719
Speaker 4: All right, let's move to Packers Steelers. Steelers win twenty

636
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 4: three to nineteen. The total does go over of thirty

637
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 4: eight and a half, and the Steelers do cover and

638
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 4: that to me is the story here, because it is

639
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 4: insane to me Evan that now the Steelers won another

640
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 4: game outright where they are getting out gained offensively, because

641
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:31,719
Speaker 4: every game this year they have gotten out gained offensively.

642
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 4: But they are six and three stract up in the standings,

643
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 4: and I don't understand what's happening, like how a guy

644
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 4: like Kenny Pickett can throw for one hundred and twenty

645
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:44,960
Speaker 4: six yards and before for thirteen on third down and

646
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 4: not really be in trouble of covering here. And to me,

647
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 4: this whole game like look Steeers run game. It was

648
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:56,760
Speaker 4: on point. Jalen Warren was the best player. He and

649
00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 4: Naja they both scored. But I could talk about all

650
00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 4: the stats and how these teams do on third down

651
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:03,840
Speaker 4: like all we want. This whole game came down to

652
00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 4: that missed extra point by the Packers kicker in the

653
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 4: first half, and as soon as it happened, I got

654
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:11,320
Speaker 4: a bunch of group texts being like, Yep, that's gonna

655
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:13,760
Speaker 4: be it. Because the Steelers for three and a half

656
00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 4: point favorites. They missed that extra point, they'd only be

657
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:18,480
Speaker 4: down three, and once they started trading field goals in

658
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:20,920
Speaker 4: the third quarter. You knew that extra point was going

659
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 4: to probably swing the spread one way or another. So

660
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 4: uh yeah, for me, this game, it all came down

661
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:28,600
Speaker 4: to the fact that the Packers missed that extra point

662
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 4: in the first half, and that was really the deciding

663
00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 4: factor and whether or not you're covered as a spread better.

664
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:36,680
Speaker 2: Yeah. Listen, once you know the spread and you know

665
00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:38,719
Speaker 2: the number, and then you watch the game and then

666
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 2: you watch that kick, and then you can turn back

667
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 2: and say yourself, Okay, sure it was the kick. It

668
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 2: was the extra point. It was definitely the extra point.

669
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 2: That's what did it. I get it.

670
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 4: Use more to it than that.

671
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:53,160
Speaker 2: I know what I just you. You mentioned Green Bay

672
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 2: ten of eighteen on third and fourth down and lost

673
00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:01,520
Speaker 2: the game and didn't cover more plays, more yards, more

674
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 2: yards per play, more pass yards. Yeah, Pittsburgh did really

675
00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 2: well on the ground, but voodoo, it's it seems like

676
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:13,560
Speaker 2: there is uh and and listen, Pittsburgh streak is gonna continue.

677
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 2: They're gonna be over five hundred unless something absolutely falls

678
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:22,160
Speaker 2: apart and happens. And listen, they're at Cleveland and at

679
00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:25,480
Speaker 2: Cincinnati the next two weeks. So if they turn around

680
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:28,759
Speaker 2: and they're sitting at you know what are they are

681
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:30,439
Speaker 2: now six and three? So they be six and five,

682
00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:33,040
Speaker 2: six and three, yes, but so if they're six and

683
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 2: five after losing at Cleveland and at Cincinnati, it's not

684
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 2: going to be a shock. But yeah, you mentioned it.

685
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:42,239
Speaker 2: Steelers are the first team to be outgained in each

686
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:44,920
Speaker 2: of their first nine games and still have a winning record.

687
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:47,880
Speaker 2: And not only do they have a winning record, but

688
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:51,880
Speaker 2: there's six and three. And the thing that's interesting is

689
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:55,280
Speaker 2: and you can look this up. Look at the recent

690
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 2: run of Steelers in one score games. I believe they've

691
00:34:59,840 --> 00:35:02,000
Speaker 2: not nine and oh, and I did this. I did

692
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:04,840
Speaker 2: some quick looking before we got on here. Nine and oh,

693
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:09,280
Speaker 2: last nine one score games, eleven and one, uh, twenty

694
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 2: one and seven or so in their last twenty eight.

695
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 2: It just they've really really done a good job, Ellison,

696
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 2: point to whatever you want. I mean, I think pointing

697
00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 2: to Tomlin and coaching isn't the worst thing you could do,

698
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 2: but it is interesting. Uh And here's another one that

699
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:29,040
Speaker 2: you could point to coaching Steelers twenty six, eight and

700
00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 2: one at home against the NFC under Tomlin. So we

701
00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:35,560
Speaker 2: go back to that Lamar stat, right, like, you haven't

702
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:38,239
Speaker 2: been a team you're not you know, aware of it.

703
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:41,360
Speaker 2: It's not easy to play against or you know, prep

704
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 2: against it's good. So I don't know how Pittsburgh does it.

705
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:45,839
Speaker 2: I don't know how they figure it out.

706
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:48,239
Speaker 4: But this was such a crusher to Evan for the

707
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 4: luck rankings. Like, I'm a big believer in the luck rankings,

708
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:54,799
Speaker 4: but the Steelers, and again they're going to remain at

709
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:56,719
Speaker 4: the top of the luck rankings as far as where

710
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:58,759
Speaker 4: we're at now because of being six and three. They

711
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:02,120
Speaker 4: feel very fraudulent six and three based on their offensive output.

712
00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 4: But the Packers, based on what has happened this year,

713
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:06,920
Speaker 4: they were close to the bottom and there was a

714
00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 4: twenty five place difference between the two and Nick Giffen,

715
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 4: who's our predictive analyst, and Sean Kerner and our whole

716
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:18,720
Speaker 4: predictive analytics team who comes up with this stuff. Those

717
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:21,319
Speaker 4: were hitting at like seventy percent cover rate for the

718
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:23,719
Speaker 4: team that was the lower on the luck side. So

719
00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:26,360
Speaker 4: the fact that this game came down to the extra

720
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 4: point just shows that even the luck rankings cannot usurp

721
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:34,880
Speaker 4: what's going on with this Steelers voodoo man. It's crazy

722
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:37,600
Speaker 4: right now of how they're able to just have a

723
00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:39,279
Speaker 4: horseshoe up their asshole a lot of the time. And

724
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:41,480
Speaker 4: you know, we talked about that Ravens game they won

725
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:45,839
Speaker 4: earlier this year, the Browns as well. You know, coming

726
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:48,719
Speaker 4: up against these AFC North teams Like I obviously I

727
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:51,440
Speaker 4: wouldn't feel great about betting the Steelers, but if they won,

728
00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:54,400
Speaker 4: you wouldn't be thinking to yourself like, wow, what an upset.

729
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:56,160
Speaker 4: You would just be like, oh my god, here we

730
00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:56,720
Speaker 4: go again.

731
00:36:57,360 --> 00:37:00,000
Speaker 2: I mean, listen to plus four in Cleveland next week,

732
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:02,320
Speaker 2: and my guess is it's going to be probably a

733
00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:06,479
Speaker 2: higher in Cincinnati, so you're getting over the four. Would

734
00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:08,279
Speaker 2: I be shocked if they went oho in two and

735
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:10,279
Speaker 2: to and zero against the spread? I mean, it's just

736
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 2: what Tolman delivers for sure.

737
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 4: I let's talk about another fun one from the afternoon.

738
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 4: Say the Lions Chargers, Lions win thirty four to thirty one.

739
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:23,319
Speaker 4: I just total on the board this week at forty

740
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:26,319
Speaker 4: eight and a half went over pretty easily. There was

741
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 4: forty four points at halftime, so you know, at Lions

742
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 4: were two and a half point favorites. They do cover

743
00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 4: as a three as a field goal winner. And the Lions,

744
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 4: now again we talk about this all the time ago.

745
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:43,440
Speaker 4: Jared Goff indoors outdoors or even just home in a way,

746
00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 4: Jared Goff indoors is now nineteen and seven against the

747
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:49,520
Speaker 4: spread in the last two years and thirty and fourteen

748
00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:53,600
Speaker 4: against the spread overall in his career playing indoors. And

749
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:56,480
Speaker 4: we could talk about their schedule here coming up, but

750
00:37:56,920 --> 00:37:59,760
Speaker 4: they've got a lot of games indoors coming for Detroit.

751
00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 2: I mean, just looking at this game specifically, and you

752
00:38:03,080 --> 00:38:05,480
Speaker 2: mentioned the endorse thing, I think it's about being comfortable

753
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:08,279
Speaker 2: for golf, like he's played it so far before. I

754
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:12,960
Speaker 2: believe this is his ninth game now, he's six and

755
00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:15,759
Speaker 2: three in this building. To me, a lot of what

756
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:20,120
Speaker 2: he does week to week is based off his comfortability, right,

757
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 2: So I think when you're betting Detroit, which I think

758
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:28,400
Speaker 2: gets tricky, we start talking about cold weather playoffs and

759
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 2: all the games Detroit actually will need to win. Now,

760
00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:34,480
Speaker 2: maybe a lot of it will go through Detroit's building,

761
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:38,400
Speaker 2: which would be nice for golf and how that the

762
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:41,520
Speaker 2: end of the season does for Detroit, But I think

763
00:38:41,560 --> 00:38:44,319
Speaker 2: that's a worry now. And now just talking about today's game,

764
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,719
Speaker 2: this is a wild one. This one was crazy, Like

765
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:51,839
Speaker 2: in terms of points and the back and forth. We

766
00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:54,719
Speaker 2: didn't have consecutive scores by the same team within the

767
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 2: same quarter the entire game. Like the Chargers never led,

768
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 2: and you would have said to yourself, how is that

769
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 2: possible if you would have watched the game, because it

770
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:05,279
Speaker 2: feels like they did. It was tied four times after

771
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:10,480
Speaker 2: zero zero, Just lots of insane game where I had

772
00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:13,840
Speaker 2: the Lions in the action app and I kept looking

773
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:17,600
Speaker 2: at my profile and even though the game was tied

774
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:20,839
Speaker 2: almost the entire time, the Lions had small leads at

775
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:23,879
Speaker 2: times late it was all green the entire time, so

776
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:26,160
Speaker 2: I don't know, it felt like it knew what it

777
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:29,759
Speaker 2: was doing. Some crazy stats. Now when you talk about

778
00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:32,600
Speaker 2: it from a Chargers point of view, so frustrating, right,

779
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:35,200
Speaker 2: like these are the games they continue to figure out

780
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:40,640
Speaker 2: ways to lose. Just you know, Herbert played really, really,

781
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 2: really well and it's just a Chargers defense allowed two

782
00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:48,760
Speaker 2: hundred yards on the ground from the Lions. Crazy.

783
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:51,120
Speaker 4: That's exactly what I was going to point to, is

784
00:39:51,160 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 4: that the Lions actually ran for two hundred yards by

785
00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:59,319
Speaker 4: halftime and it was insane. And then but the one

786
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:02,480
Speaker 4: thing that I found was really telling about where this

787
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:05,960
Speaker 4: Lions team is now compared to maybe even last year

788
00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 4: or the year before when Dan Campbell first got there,

789
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:12,240
Speaker 4: is Dan Campbell is pushing the right buttons on fourth

790
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:15,600
Speaker 4: down and showing Brandon Staley how it's done. Because they

791
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:18,240
Speaker 4: are four or five or four for five on fourth

792
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:20,960
Speaker 4: down today, one of them to seal the game. To me,

793
00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:23,959
Speaker 4: that was the type of aggressive play calling that helps

794
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:26,879
Speaker 4: you stay ahead of this Chargers team. Why they could

795
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:29,040
Speaker 4: never get the lead because they wouldn't give the ball

796
00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 4: back to them in those spots where the Chargers would

797
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 4: be comfortable. And that's why this Lions team, I think

798
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:37,920
Speaker 4: it's really interesting about where they might be able to

799
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:40,800
Speaker 4: go in the NFC because we talk about this indoor

800
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:44,160
Speaker 4: outdoor part. They only have one indoor or outdoor game

801
00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:47,040
Speaker 4: for the rest of the year. It's Week fourteen in Chicago.

802
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:51,200
Speaker 4: Every other game Vikings, they've got the Bears, Packers at home,

803
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:53,120
Speaker 4: and they're on the road to the Saints, and then

804
00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 4: the rest of their way is Week fourteen against Chicago

805
00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:58,000
Speaker 4: outdoors and the rest of them are all indoors. So

806
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:02,280
Speaker 4: right now and look at Jared gov splits indoors outdoors,

807
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:05,840
Speaker 4: he's about three to one for touchdown interception ratio compared

808
00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:07,839
Speaker 4: to one to one when he's playing outdoors or in

809
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:11,360
Speaker 4: colder weather. So this offense is clicking right now. Jamiir

810
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:14,399
Speaker 4: Gibbs looked fantastic. David Montgomery is healthy again. They're gonna

811
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:17,400
Speaker 4: start getting more guys back healthy. That's why when we

812
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:20,080
Speaker 4: were talking about this Lions or the Vikings team, whether

813
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 4: or not they could be able to come back here

814
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:24,200
Speaker 4: and maybe make a push. And then it's NFC North.

815
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:26,480
Speaker 4: I mean, they still have two games against Detroit, but

816
00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:28,960
Speaker 4: I don't feel great them matching up together that they

817
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:33,319
Speaker 4: could keep up with their offense, especially indoors. And I

818
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 4: was gonna say, did you want to look at the

819
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:37,640
Speaker 4: Chargers schedule? But to be honest, I didn't even write

820
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:39,720
Speaker 4: anything down because I don't even think it matters. Because

821
00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:41,520
Speaker 4: if you look at the teams at who they play

822
00:41:41,520 --> 00:41:43,680
Speaker 4: and what they do play. It could be them playing

823
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:46,319
Speaker 4: the forty nine Ers, they could probably stay in that

824
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 4: game and cover. They could be playing the Cardinals, they

825
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 4: could stay in that game and then lose. Like so

826
00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:53,040
Speaker 4: for me, this Chargers team, I don't really care what

827
00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:55,239
Speaker 4: their schedule is. Is more of do you want to

828
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:58,320
Speaker 4: invest your money in this team going forward in games

829
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:01,000
Speaker 4: that you know are all going to really screwing.

830
00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:04,080
Speaker 2: Man. I'll say this, Herbert in his career twenty nine

831
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:08,000
Speaker 2: and thirty straight up now, and this is from Doug Clawson,

832
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:10,960
Speaker 2: who you can see Doug Clawson on Twitter. But I'm

833
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:14,560
Speaker 2: gonna give him credit because it's just so perfectly Chargers.

834
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 2: But in Herbert's fifty nine career starts, so twenty nine

835
00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:22,959
Speaker 2: and thirty, fifteen hundred and two points scored, fifteen hundred

836
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:26,960
Speaker 2: and two points allowed, exactly even through fifty nine career starts.

837
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:31,200
Speaker 2: So that is exactly Chargers and everything, Herbert. And that's

838
00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:33,359
Speaker 2: what you're gonna get weekend and week out, all.

839
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:37,959
Speaker 4: Right, Falcons Cardinals. Falcons lose as two and a half

840
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:40,279
Speaker 4: point favorites and the over under of forty three and

841
00:42:40,320 --> 00:42:44,279
Speaker 4: a half does go over. But Kyler Murray is back.

842
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:48,879
Speaker 4: Evan Kyler Murray to me, you wouldn't even have known

843
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:50,960
Speaker 4: he was gone. Obviously, he doesn't have as many weapons

844
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:53,440
Speaker 4: to play with like with DeAndre Hopkins. And you know,

845
00:42:53,719 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 4: James Connor was back today, so that was obviously helpful.

846
00:42:56,160 --> 00:42:58,399
Speaker 4: But I mean, we saw those long scrambles, those little

847
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:01,960
Speaker 4: pitter patter scrambles. That was exactly his playing style, you know,

848
00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:04,520
Speaker 4: the thirty five yard passes down the field. Trey McBride

849
00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:09,080
Speaker 4: looked incredible, but we saw even in the two minute

850
00:43:09,120 --> 00:43:12,799
Speaker 4: drill that this team is just decimated offensively, Like they

851
00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:14,799
Speaker 4: don't really have a lot that they can lean on.

852
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:16,680
Speaker 4: I mean, if you had James Connor for a touchdown,

853
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:19,239
Speaker 4: this is also this was I felt really bad for

854
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:22,279
Speaker 4: anybody who had either James Connor for a touchdown or

855
00:43:22,280 --> 00:43:25,480
Speaker 4: in fantasy, because he did you dirty. He took a

856
00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:29,000
Speaker 4: dive twice inside the five yard line instead of running

857
00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:31,080
Speaker 4: it in, and he could have probably ran it in too,

858
00:43:31,120 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 4: Like it didn't look like anybody was in the way,

859
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:36,040
Speaker 4: and it wasn't like you know where, it was so

860
00:43:36,120 --> 00:43:39,120
Speaker 4: close to the game that maybe, like again, you've got

861
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:42,239
Speaker 4: Desmond Ridder coming in for Taylor Heineke, Like, what are

862
00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:44,239
Speaker 4: you worried about? There's thirty Are you really worried that

863
00:43:44,239 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 4: you left thirty seconds for Desmond Ridder to get a

864
00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 4: field goal on you? Like, I just felt like James

865
00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:50,319
Speaker 4: Connor could have probably ran that in. And that's all

866
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:52,400
Speaker 4: I was saying. I don't really want to give the

867
00:43:52,440 --> 00:43:55,200
Speaker 4: Cardinals too much crap for how they won this game,

868
00:43:55,239 --> 00:43:58,200
Speaker 4: because they probably shouldn't have won the game. But Kyler Murray,

869
00:43:58,239 --> 00:43:59,480
Speaker 4: that's why he is the guy.

870
00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:02,640
Speaker 2: Yes, So this was Arizona's first game this season as

871
00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:06,359
Speaker 2: a public side to congratulations how every team's got in

872
00:44:06,360 --> 00:44:11,000
Speaker 2: that role, so better's liked Arizona today and they came through.

873
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:16,000
Speaker 2: This game was just so frustrating to watch from both

874
00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 2: points of view, like from Atlanta's point of view. God,

875
00:44:19,880 --> 00:44:23,360
Speaker 2: it just it felt like Arthur is just so lost

876
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:26,759
Speaker 2: on a daily basis on how to win games and

877
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:29,319
Speaker 2: what to do with his offense and when did give

878
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:31,759
Speaker 2: people carries? Like you look at the box score and

879
00:44:31,800 --> 00:44:35,080
Speaker 2: Bijon got twenty two carries today ninety five yards. Everything

880
00:44:35,080 --> 00:44:37,960
Speaker 2: went well and you try to figure out, well, why

881
00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 2: why now how this happened based off what you saw before?

882
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:45,120
Speaker 2: It just completely confusing, right, and then Atlanta comes out,

883
00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:47,319
Speaker 2: they win the first half, and then they lose the game.

884
00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:51,160
Speaker 2: It's just it just you know, it's just so they

885
00:44:51,160 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 2: were six and three first half money line this season,

886
00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:57,279
Speaker 2: only winless team. They come out, they play well, and

887
00:44:57,320 --> 00:44:59,799
Speaker 2: then Kyler comes back and you know, pulls out their

888
00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:03,640
Speaker 2: hearts at the end of this one, Listen. They've lost

889
00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:06,560
Speaker 2: three straight, but they're also I believe a game out

890
00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:09,360
Speaker 2: in the division. You know, can they win the NFC

891
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:12,040
Speaker 2: South and get a top ten pick, Like, I don't

892
00:45:12,080 --> 00:45:16,480
Speaker 2: know what the actual result is for Atlanta. Listened before

893
00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:20,960
Speaker 2: the season. I liked them. I picked them to sneaking

894
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:24,120
Speaker 2: to the playoffs. I think I did a bad job

895
00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:29,360
Speaker 2: at evaluating ridd I think I knew he wasn't great.

896
00:45:29,440 --> 00:45:33,160
Speaker 2: I don't think I realized just how turnover prone and

897
00:45:33,239 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 2: shaky he was. And I think Heineke gives you a

898
00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:39,720
Speaker 2: better chance to win. But I think we saw today. Man,

899
00:45:39,880 --> 00:45:43,200
Speaker 2: They're just they combined for seventy passing yards. Just I

900
00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 2: don't think either of them are the answer. I think

901
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:49,840
Speaker 2: they have a lot in their offense, and I'll finish

902
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:51,720
Speaker 2: it the way I started. I just think they're lost

903
00:45:53,520 --> 00:45:55,560
Speaker 2: from a Falcons point of view. One stat for you

904
00:45:56,600 --> 00:45:59,799
Speaker 2: the NFC South, and this this is just futrick, but

905
00:46:00,360 --> 00:46:04,240
Speaker 2: actually kind of amazing. Forty four. Now the whole division

906
00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:06,799
Speaker 2: is forty four to seventy five and two against the

907
00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:11,480
Speaker 2: spread thirty seven percent versus any team outside the division

908
00:46:11,600 --> 00:46:14,799
Speaker 2: over the last three years, including nine and twenty one

909
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:17,439
Speaker 2: against the spread. This year. So that's the worst mark

910
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:18,800
Speaker 2: of any division.

911
00:46:18,520 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 4: In Carolina on the buy this week, now in pole

912
00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:24,879
Speaker 4: position for a first overall pick, and they don't even

913
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:26,680
Speaker 4: own the pick. Now it goes to the Bears. So

914
00:46:27,120 --> 00:46:29,000
Speaker 4: again one of the things like it was a double

915
00:46:29,040 --> 00:46:32,160
Speaker 4: whammy for the Panthers here because I'm sure the Patriots

916
00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:33,719
Speaker 4: will talk about them in a little bit, but lots

917
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:36,160
Speaker 4: of teams kind of maybe gunning for that number one spot,

918
00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:39,560
Speaker 4: and now the Bears are in pole position via proxy

919
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:43,600
Speaker 4: of the Panthers here, all right, Commanders Seahawks. Seahawks win

920
00:46:43,640 --> 00:46:46,920
Speaker 4: twenty nine to twenty six, another one score game. Seahawks

921
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:50,520
Speaker 4: don't cover though as six point favorites. The over does

922
00:46:50,600 --> 00:46:53,799
Speaker 4: hit a forty four and a half Evan Sam Howe

923
00:46:53,840 --> 00:46:56,040
Speaker 4: and the Commanders five and one against the spread on

924
00:46:56,080 --> 00:46:59,799
Speaker 4: the road this year, so not bad like they do.

925
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:01,680
Speaker 4: Got to show up in these road spots here.

926
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:05,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, six and a half just too much, right, It

927
00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:08,200
Speaker 2: just ended up being a little bit too many points

928
00:47:08,640 --> 00:47:11,279
Speaker 2: in this one. You mentioned Howell five and one on

929
00:47:11,320 --> 00:47:14,480
Speaker 2: the road against the spread, all six of those games

930
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:18,600
Speaker 2: one score game, So he's sneaking, you know, underneath the

931
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 2: number probably in a few of those, A fun one

932
00:47:22,920 --> 00:47:26,799
Speaker 2: would be he's actually one road win away, which would

933
00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:31,440
Speaker 2: come at this point on Thanksgiving in Dallas against the Cowboys,

934
00:47:31,440 --> 00:47:34,080
Speaker 2: so he gets one more road cover, he'd be the

935
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:36,439
Speaker 2: most profitable Washington quarterback on the road in the last

936
00:47:36,440 --> 00:47:40,560
Speaker 2: twenty years. So, oh my god. If you think about

937
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:42,239
Speaker 2: that and you think about all the quarterbacks that have

938
00:47:42,280 --> 00:47:44,440
Speaker 2: come there at six and one, that would give him

939
00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:47,240
Speaker 2: the record. So pretty funny. But if you think about

940
00:47:47,400 --> 00:47:51,279
Speaker 2: just today's game, Washington's got to feel great. They got

941
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:53,160
Speaker 2: to feel like they've got their guy. I mean, is

942
00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:56,240
Speaker 2: the second in passing yards in the in the league.

943
00:47:56,480 --> 00:47:58,120
Speaker 2: He had three touchdowns today.

944
00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:02,000
Speaker 4: No one sack times today. They don't protect him. I

945
00:48:02,040 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 4: think that's the problem. I think obviously, Okay, so I

946
00:48:04,160 --> 00:48:05,719
Speaker 4: don't want I'm with you.

947
00:48:05,440 --> 00:48:08,200
Speaker 2: But he's the quin you feel like guy. I don't

948
00:48:08,200 --> 00:48:11,600
Speaker 2: think they're worried about It's not how like, listen, we

949
00:48:11,640 --> 00:48:14,319
Speaker 2: get it. He's been sacked forty seven times this year, right,

950
00:48:14,520 --> 00:48:17,520
Speaker 2: I mean, it's only listen when you're in a conversation

951
00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:21,960
Speaker 2: with David Carr and Sacks. It's not good, but it's not.

952
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:26,560
Speaker 2: But I think we understand He's looked good between McLaurin,

953
00:48:26,800 --> 00:48:29,000
Speaker 2: Dotson and Samuel he's getting people the ball.

954
00:48:29,239 --> 00:48:31,960
Speaker 4: Yeah. Offensively, you're right, and I think that is a

955
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:35,600
Speaker 4: takeaway that we can at least agree on that offensively,

956
00:48:36,040 --> 00:48:38,520
Speaker 4: they can stay in these games and they have talent there.

957
00:48:38,800 --> 00:48:41,520
Speaker 4: But the main takeaway I find is that this Commander's

958
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:46,160
Speaker 4: pass defense just is terrible. They're continuously plumbing in dvaway

959
00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:49,600
Speaker 4: pass rankings. We've seen them just get torched repeatedly by

960
00:48:49,600 --> 00:48:52,560
Speaker 4: wide receiver ones over and over again. Now, Metcalf didn't

961
00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:55,040
Speaker 4: score today, but Lockett was able to score. You know

962
00:48:55,080 --> 00:48:57,839
Speaker 4: it just there was a lot of times where their

963
00:48:57,880 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 4: pass defense leaves a lot to be desired. They got

964
00:49:00,040 --> 00:49:02,600
Speaker 4: two rookie corners, Manuel Forbes is one of them out there.

965
00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:05,000
Speaker 4: They're gonna improve on that front. But if they don't

966
00:49:05,000 --> 00:49:08,560
Speaker 4: get a offensive line help and secondary help, this is

967
00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:10,480
Speaker 4: what we're gonna see probably weekend and week out with

968
00:49:10,520 --> 00:49:14,080
Speaker 4: the Commanders. But from a Seahawks standpoint, I'm not really

969
00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:15,600
Speaker 4: much to take away from that. I mean, they made

970
00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:20,200
Speaker 4: plays to win, obviously, just more play. This pretty simple explanation.

971
00:49:20,239 --> 00:49:22,200
Speaker 4: They made more points than they did. But for me,

972
00:49:22,880 --> 00:49:25,120
Speaker 4: the Seahawks I didn't feel like they did anything that

973
00:49:25,160 --> 00:49:27,959
Speaker 4: really shocked me, Like in this game, Kenneth Walker scored

974
00:49:27,960 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 4: a touchdow it Like again, there was no turnovers, There

975
00:49:30,120 --> 00:49:32,440
Speaker 4: was nothing that they did where I was like wow,

976
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:35,320
Speaker 4: like Gino really surprised me, or Sam how doing something

977
00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 4: that was like Wow, they're really staying in this other

978
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:39,800
Speaker 4: than maybe the touchdown near the end to get Diamie

979
00:49:39,840 --> 00:49:42,239
Speaker 4: Brown in, but other than that, this was pretty much

980
00:49:42,239 --> 00:49:44,520
Speaker 4: how I thought it was gonna play out, where the Seahawks.

981
00:49:44,160 --> 00:49:45,359
Speaker 2: Would probably eke it out.

982
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:48,479
Speaker 4: All right, we got three games left, Devant's let's wrap

983
00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:50,640
Speaker 4: these up and then we can get on with our

984
00:49:50,920 --> 00:49:53,960
Speaker 4: get on with our Sunday here. Giants Cowboys Cowboys win

985
00:49:54,200 --> 00:49:57,279
Speaker 4: very easily, forty nine to seventeen. The total does go

986
00:49:57,360 --> 00:50:00,520
Speaker 4: over of thirty nine, and the Cowboys easily cover as

987
00:50:00,560 --> 00:50:02,760
Speaker 4: seventeen and a half point favorites. And I mean, we knew,

988
00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:05,920
Speaker 4: we talked about this last week, knew this was gonna

989
00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:08,560
Speaker 4: happen with this big spread because there were no sweats

990
00:50:08,560 --> 00:50:10,920
Speaker 4: in this one. Dak typically kicks the shit out of

991
00:50:10,920 --> 00:50:13,480
Speaker 4: teams at home. We know this, and when you got

992
00:50:13,520 --> 00:50:16,799
Speaker 4: Tommy DeVito on the other side, it makes it nearly unwatchable.

993
00:50:16,880 --> 00:50:20,680
Speaker 4: So one of the notes too. Cowboys beat the Giants

994
00:50:20,719 --> 00:50:24,360
Speaker 4: both games this year by combined eighty nine to seventeen margin.

995
00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:29,440
Speaker 4: Those seventeen points were scored just today Titans Buccaneers. Buccaneers

996
00:50:29,440 --> 00:50:33,000
Speaker 4: win twenty to six. Total goes under. Bucks do covers

997
00:50:33,040 --> 00:50:34,960
Speaker 4: two and a half point favorites. But the total I

998
00:50:35,080 --> 00:50:37,600
Speaker 4: said of thirty nine does go under. I mean Will Levis,

999
00:50:37,600 --> 00:50:40,360
Speaker 4: he just got smacked smacked around really pretty much the

1000
00:50:40,360 --> 00:50:42,399
Speaker 4: whole game. There wasn't really a lot to take away

1001
00:50:42,400 --> 00:50:44,720
Speaker 4: from this one. Levis and the Titans, they just couldn't

1002
00:50:44,760 --> 00:50:46,640
Speaker 4: really do anything. It wasn't really much of a showing.

1003
00:50:46,719 --> 00:50:49,440
Speaker 4: It was a rookie quarterback playing on the road against

1004
00:50:49,800 --> 00:50:53,040
Speaker 4: an above average defense, and this is what you see.

1005
00:50:53,200 --> 00:50:55,239
Speaker 4: And there was just not much offense to take away

1006
00:50:55,239 --> 00:50:58,640
Speaker 4: from it. Last game, Evan, let's wrap it up here

1007
00:50:58,680 --> 00:51:04,880
Speaker 4: with the Germany Bowl Colts Patriots. Colts win ten to six. No,

1008
00:51:05,040 --> 00:51:08,440
Speaker 4: this isn't a baseball score, you know. Uh, Colts win

1009
00:51:08,560 --> 00:51:11,040
Speaker 4: ten to six, and they do cover as one and

1010
00:51:11,040 --> 00:51:14,360
Speaker 4: a half point favorites, and the total goes way under

1011
00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:16,960
Speaker 4: a forty two and a half Because this was the

1012
00:51:17,120 --> 00:51:21,480
Speaker 4: lowest scoring international game of all time. Evan and this

1013
00:51:21,520 --> 00:51:23,600
Speaker 4: is the past's third game of the year without an

1014
00:51:23,640 --> 00:51:27,719
Speaker 4: offensive touchdown. And now Mac Jones as the quarterback with

1015
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:31,400
Speaker 4: the Patriots is one in fifteen against the spread in

1016
00:51:31,480 --> 00:51:35,959
Speaker 4: his last sixteen starts as a dog. So I'm gonna

1017
00:51:36,160 --> 00:51:37,640
Speaker 4: end it on this, and I want to ask you

1018
00:51:37,920 --> 00:51:42,280
Speaker 4: because we saw some maybe some tanking shenanigans here where

1019
00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:44,919
Speaker 4: the pass put in Bailey's appy in the two minute trial.

1020
00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:47,440
Speaker 4: It's a one score game, you know, so it felt

1021
00:51:47,440 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 4: like the ultimate fu to Mac Jones, like get wreaked

1022
00:51:51,200 --> 00:51:54,520
Speaker 4: of tanking or just straight up contempt for Mac. So

1023
00:51:55,000 --> 00:51:57,400
Speaker 4: this is the worst straight up record through ten games

1024
00:51:57,400 --> 00:52:00,440
Speaker 4: in the Bill Belichick era. The question is going into

1025
00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:03,840
Speaker 4: the bye week coming back in week twelve, is this

1026
00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:06,800
Speaker 4: Mac jones last game as the Patriots started.

1027
00:52:07,000 --> 00:52:08,640
Speaker 2: I mean it should be. I think this is probably

1028
00:52:08,640 --> 00:52:11,440
Speaker 2: the toughest one for us to predict. Right every other

1029
00:52:11,520 --> 00:52:14,080
Speaker 2: time it was like, yeah, Mac will be back Mac.

1030
00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:16,120
Speaker 2: I think we've also because I honestly think we've been

1031
00:52:16,160 --> 00:52:20,480
Speaker 2: waiting for this international game, plus this buye, which we

1032
00:52:20,520 --> 00:52:23,879
Speaker 2: thought there'd be a decision made posted. Listen, you're at

1033
00:52:23,880 --> 00:52:26,279
Speaker 2: the Giants coming off the buy and then you're at

1034
00:52:26,280 --> 00:52:29,719
Speaker 2: home against the Chargers. I don't think there's much of

1035
00:52:29,760 --> 00:52:32,879
Speaker 2: a key game or a key situation or division game

1036
00:52:32,960 --> 00:52:35,960
Speaker 2: or something to circle. I mean, just doesn't matter at

1037
00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:38,799
Speaker 2: this point, right, Like you're pretty much twenty I think

1038
00:52:38,840 --> 00:52:41,400
Speaker 2: you're twenty ninth or three in the league and scoring

1039
00:52:42,640 --> 00:52:46,960
Speaker 2: it's just really really bad. And I think after today,

1040
00:52:47,239 --> 00:52:48,680
Speaker 2: because I know there was a lot of talk this

1041
00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:51,799
Speaker 2: morning about Craft wanting to win and this one meaning

1042
00:52:51,800 --> 00:52:54,040
Speaker 2: a lot to him, and it's being the Colts and

1043
00:52:54,080 --> 00:52:59,480
Speaker 2: all this stuff. Okay, guys, it's over. No games matter anymore. Nothing,

1044
00:52:59,719 --> 00:53:03,160
Speaker 2: there is no matter in this season. Looking at the schedule.

1045
00:53:03,400 --> 00:53:06,640
Speaker 2: You know, play play Pittsburgh, They play Kansas City. Oh god,

1046
00:53:06,680 --> 00:53:09,040
Speaker 2: they play Kansas City at home on Monday night football

1047
00:53:09,160 --> 00:53:12,719
Speaker 2: Jesus the schedule, and then they end at Buffalo and

1048
00:53:12,960 --> 00:53:16,399
Speaker 2: versus the Jets. You just lose games and this one

1049
00:53:16,600 --> 00:53:17,000
Speaker 2: let it go.

1050
00:53:17,840 --> 00:53:18,000
Speaker 1: Well.

1051
00:53:18,000 --> 00:53:20,799
Speaker 4: The one thing that is important that happened is that

1052
00:53:21,000 --> 00:53:25,080
Speaker 4: they are now in second position to have a second

1053
00:53:25,120 --> 00:53:27,719
Speaker 4: overall pick right now in the upcoming NFL draft. So

1054
00:53:28,160 --> 00:53:30,799
Speaker 4: if they are looking to tank, this is the way

1055
00:53:30,800 --> 00:53:33,239
Speaker 4: to go about it. And that was pretty much a

1056
00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:37,839
Speaker 4: ultimate tank move, Even as bad as Mac joneses looked

1057
00:53:37,960 --> 00:53:40,600
Speaker 4: to bench him for a two minute drill in a

1058
00:53:40,640 --> 00:53:44,000
Speaker 4: one score game. So that was the ultimate white flag

1059
00:53:44,440 --> 00:53:47,399
Speaker 4: on the Bill Belichick era and maybe even the Bill

1060
00:53:47,440 --> 00:53:50,480
Speaker 4: Belichick season at least of twenty twenty three. Now, let's

1061
00:53:50,520 --> 00:53:52,919
Speaker 4: check in with Patrick Evererson with Vegas Insider to see

1062
00:53:52,920 --> 00:53:55,359
Speaker 4: how sportsbooks beared in Las Vegas for Week ten.

1063
00:53:55,520 --> 00:53:57,680
Speaker 5: Hey Gill, it's good to be back on the Action

1064
00:53:57,800 --> 00:54:04,440
Speaker 5: Network podcast. Really interesting NFL Week ten Sunday unfolded early

1065
00:54:04,480 --> 00:54:07,240
Speaker 5: in the day before the game's even kicked off. Christian

1066
00:54:07,280 --> 00:54:11,719
Speaker 5: Sippolini and Bet MGM said, we really could use a

1067
00:54:11,840 --> 00:54:15,200
Speaker 5: Ravens outright loss. Certainly could have used a Niners outright loss,

1068
00:54:15,480 --> 00:54:18,680
Speaker 5: a Bengals outright loss. Another odds biker said pretty much

1069
00:54:18,680 --> 00:54:21,360
Speaker 5: the same thing, said, we need either the Ravens to

1070
00:54:21,400 --> 00:54:24,200
Speaker 5: lose or the Bengals to lose, or we're going to

1071
00:54:24,280 --> 00:54:27,080
Speaker 5: have a really bad day. As it all works out

1072
00:54:27,160 --> 00:54:30,200
Speaker 5: in the early kickoffs, the Ravens and the Bengals both

1073
00:54:30,280 --> 00:54:33,760
Speaker 5: lose in the same fashion on final second field goals

1074
00:54:34,120 --> 00:54:37,279
Speaker 5: as home favorites. So it looked like this was just

1075
00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:39,640
Speaker 5: going to be a role for sportsbooks today, like they

1076
00:54:39,680 --> 00:54:43,319
Speaker 5: were just going to breeze through. However, the way some

1077
00:54:43,400 --> 00:54:47,239
Speaker 5: of the later games fell really ate into what the

1078
00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:50,560
Speaker 5: books made. I talked with one odds maker tonight who said, specifically,

1079
00:54:50,560 --> 00:54:52,279
Speaker 5: the Sunday night game ended up being a problem, which

1080
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:55,520
Speaker 5: isn't really unusual in Vegas. Now that I guess I

1081
00:54:55,520 --> 00:54:58,440
Speaker 5: shouldn't say it's really unusual. The Raiders haven't been that good,

1082
00:54:58,640 --> 00:55:00,520
Speaker 5: but now they went to in a row some energy

1083
00:55:00,520 --> 00:55:02,520
Speaker 5: behind them. They took a lot of tickets and money

1084
00:55:02,760 --> 00:55:05,080
Speaker 5: at sportsbooks around Las Vegas today, and one odds maker

1085
00:55:05,120 --> 00:55:09,040
Speaker 5: said Raiders and under was our worst case scenario.

1086
00:55:09,640 --> 00:55:11,880
Speaker 1: He said, we probably ended up around even for the day.

1087
00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:14,399
Speaker 5: He said, we had a great early kick window, did

1088
00:55:14,440 --> 00:55:16,560
Speaker 5: okay to the middle kicks, but actually we're going to

1089
00:55:16,640 --> 00:55:19,080
Speaker 5: need the Jets. Tonight did not get the Jets in

1090
00:55:19,160 --> 00:55:21,719
Speaker 5: the Sunday night game, and at BETMGYM Nevada it was

1091
00:55:21,760 --> 00:55:24,200
Speaker 5: pretty much the same story. I talked with Scott Shelton

1092
00:55:24,719 --> 00:55:27,040
Speaker 5: on this Sunday night about how they did to the games,

1093
00:55:27,040 --> 00:55:30,839
Speaker 5: and even before the Raiders and Jets kicked off, he said,

1094
00:55:30,840 --> 00:55:34,080
Speaker 5: our day is going to come down to the night game.

1095
00:55:34,120 --> 00:55:36,399
Speaker 5: The Sunday night game between the Jets and Raiders he said,

1096
00:55:36,400 --> 00:55:39,840
Speaker 5: it was up and down all day. They traded mostly

1097
00:55:39,920 --> 00:55:42,239
Speaker 5: this morning, winning a big decision with the Texans, but

1098
00:55:42,320 --> 00:55:44,360
Speaker 5: losing a big decision on the forty nine ers. With

1099
00:55:44,400 --> 00:55:47,600
Speaker 5: the forty nine ers hammering the Jaguars. He said they

1100
00:55:47,640 --> 00:55:49,720
Speaker 5: won three of the four late games. They only lost

1101
00:55:49,719 --> 00:55:52,000
Speaker 5: to the Cowboys in the late window. And if the

1102
00:55:52,040 --> 00:55:54,520
Speaker 5: Jets had won tonight, which they certainly were in position

1103
00:55:54,600 --> 00:55:57,719
Speaker 5: to do, would have been another solid day for the bookmaker,

1104
00:55:57,719 --> 00:56:01,600
Speaker 5: certainly for BETMGM here in Nevada. But the Raiders got there,

1105
00:56:01,600 --> 00:56:03,520
Speaker 5: and so what Scott Shelton said is if the Raiders

1106
00:56:03,560 --> 00:56:05,480
Speaker 5: do get there, we will hope to break even. And

1107
00:56:05,520 --> 00:56:07,560
Speaker 5: then after the game I followed up with Scott and

1108
00:56:07,600 --> 00:56:10,520
Speaker 5: he said, we lost everything we won. He said, but

1109
00:56:10,600 --> 00:56:13,520
Speaker 5: you can't win every week. That wouldn't be gambling. I

1110
00:56:13,560 --> 00:56:15,799
Speaker 5: don't know that I can disagree with that. So a

1111
00:56:15,840 --> 00:56:18,000
Speaker 5: mixed bag at least among the oddsmakers I talked with

1112
00:56:18,040 --> 00:56:21,400
Speaker 5: here in Vegas. But obviously those results early in the

1113
00:56:21,480 --> 00:56:24,840
Speaker 5: day helped. If they hadn't had the Ravens lose and

1114
00:56:24,880 --> 00:56:27,319
Speaker 5: the Bengals lose, the public would have had a really

1115
00:56:27,320 --> 00:56:28,600
Speaker 5: good day, which is fine with us.

1116
00:56:28,640 --> 00:56:29,719
Speaker 1: We want to see Betters win.

1117
00:56:29,840 --> 00:56:32,120
Speaker 5: But the public took it on the chin there and

1118
00:56:32,160 --> 00:56:34,719
Speaker 5: then rebounded recouped some of that in the end, and

1119
00:56:34,880 --> 00:56:37,319
Speaker 5: probably everybody kind of broke even as it all worked

1120
00:56:37,360 --> 00:56:38,120
Speaker 5: out as.

1121
00:56:38,000 --> 00:56:39,560
Speaker 1: You look ahead to the Monday night game.

1122
00:56:39,760 --> 00:56:41,439
Speaker 5: This is from bedem Jam as well, and I thought

1123
00:56:41,440 --> 00:56:43,640
Speaker 5: this was kind of interesting because I honestly don't think

1124
00:56:43,640 --> 00:56:46,759
Speaker 5: my Denver Broncos are that good. I'm a very pessimistic

1125
00:56:46,760 --> 00:56:49,759
Speaker 5: Broncos fan, and it's not like there. They've been world

1126
00:56:49,800 --> 00:56:53,040
Speaker 5: beaters for the last season and a half. But Monday

1127
00:56:53,120 --> 00:56:56,720
Speaker 5: night game at Buffalo, And this is from earlier Sunday

1128
00:56:56,960 --> 00:57:00,520
Speaker 5: from BETEMGM fifty seven percent of spread tickets, four percent

1129
00:57:00,520 --> 00:57:04,440
Speaker 5: of spread money on Denver on the road. And maybe

1130
00:57:04,440 --> 00:57:06,680
Speaker 5: it speaks a little bit to people seeing Denver having

1131
00:57:06,719 --> 00:57:09,319
Speaker 5: knocked off Kansas City a couple of weeks ago, got

1132
00:57:09,440 --> 00:57:12,399
Speaker 5: the upset there, but it also probably speaks a little

1133
00:57:12,400 --> 00:57:14,560
Speaker 5: bit to kind of the disarrayed that the Buffalo bills

1134
00:57:14,560 --> 00:57:17,520
Speaker 5: are in and people not necessarily trusting Buffalo. I'll be

1135
00:57:17,560 --> 00:57:19,960
Speaker 5: surprised with these numbers hanged throughout the day Monday, because,

1136
00:57:19,960 --> 00:57:22,240
Speaker 5: as we all know, a lot of the tickets and money,

1137
00:57:22,320 --> 00:57:24,120
Speaker 5: especially on these standalone games are going to come in

1138
00:57:24,120 --> 00:57:25,200
Speaker 5: the last couple of hours.

1139
00:57:25,040 --> 00:57:26,360
Speaker 1: So maybe this changes a bit.

1140
00:57:26,840 --> 00:57:29,240
Speaker 5: But tickets and money on the Broncos on the spread,

1141
00:57:29,280 --> 00:57:30,800
Speaker 5: and also on the Broncos on the money line.

1142
00:57:30,800 --> 00:57:32,120
Speaker 1: The money line doesn't surprised me too much.

1143
00:57:32,160 --> 00:57:33,760
Speaker 5: People like to get in on that plus money, but

1144
00:57:34,440 --> 00:57:36,640
Speaker 5: that spread certainly surprises me a little bit.

1145
00:57:37,080 --> 00:57:38,400
Speaker 1: And then as you look ahead to next week.

1146
00:57:38,400 --> 00:57:40,320
Speaker 5: I talked to one Vegas oddsmaker on this Sunday night

1147
00:57:40,320 --> 00:57:42,160
Speaker 5: just about a few of the key games. No real

1148
00:57:42,200 --> 00:57:45,360
Speaker 5: big movers or anything that jump out, but you've got

1149
00:57:45,360 --> 00:57:48,240
Speaker 5: a couple of great games, mainly the Thursday night game,

1150
00:57:48,320 --> 00:57:50,680
Speaker 5: hopefully a great game between the Bengals and Ravens, who

1151
00:57:50,680 --> 00:57:52,880
Speaker 5: both are looking to bounce back, but really more so

1152
00:57:52,960 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 5: that Monday night or we're getting a Super Bowl rematch

1153
00:57:55,600 --> 00:57:58,439
Speaker 5: between the Eagles and the Chiefs, and the oddsmaker open

1154
00:57:58,560 --> 00:58:00,840
Speaker 5: Chiefs minus two and a half said that will be

1155
00:58:00,960 --> 00:58:04,160
Speaker 5: a referendum on how much the market believes home field

1156
00:58:04,200 --> 00:58:06,320
Speaker 5: is worth, because generally they say, well, you know, kind

1157
00:58:06,320 --> 00:58:08,840
Speaker 5: of the general rule home field is worth three points. Well,

1158
00:58:08,840 --> 00:58:10,480
Speaker 5: the Chiefs are lay in two and a half here,

1159
00:58:10,880 --> 00:58:12,959
Speaker 5: and the oddsmaker noted the power rankings.

1160
00:58:12,600 --> 00:58:14,200
Speaker 1: Of these two teams couldn't be closer.

1161
00:58:14,200 --> 00:58:16,800
Speaker 5: They ran them very closely together, as Otmaker does, and

1162
00:58:16,840 --> 00:58:19,280
Speaker 5: he said he wouldn't speculate on the need at this point,

1163
00:58:19,280 --> 00:58:22,480
Speaker 5: but he expects an outstanding amount of betting action on

1164
00:58:22,640 --> 00:58:26,840
Speaker 5: Eagles Chiefs next Monday Night to finish off the week

1165
00:58:26,840 --> 00:58:29,680
Speaker 5: eleven slate and if the favorites get it back together

1166
00:58:29,840 --> 00:58:32,080
Speaker 5: in week eleven, If the popular favorites get it together,

1167
00:58:32,160 --> 00:58:35,480
Speaker 5: there's probably going to be a ton of liability running

1168
00:58:35,640 --> 00:58:37,680
Speaker 5: likely to the Chiefs on Monday Night, although the Eagles

1169
00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:38,360
Speaker 5: may take their share of.

1170
00:58:38,360 --> 00:58:41,800
Speaker 1: Money too, because the Eagles has certainly become a public team, so.

1171
00:58:41,720 --> 00:58:44,200
Speaker 5: They're having a little look at how the weekend went

1172
00:58:44,280 --> 00:58:46,160
Speaker 5: in the NFL for Week ten, a little look ahead

1173
00:58:46,160 --> 00:58:47,600
Speaker 5: to Monday Night and to week eleven.

1174
00:58:47,760 --> 00:58:49,480
Speaker 4: Thank you Patrick, and thank you for listening to the

1175
00:58:49,520 --> 00:58:52,880
Speaker 4: Action Network podcast presented by bet MGM. Enjoy the doubleheader

1176
00:58:52,920 --> 00:58:54,440
Speaker 4: for Monday Night football, and keep an eye out for

1177
00:58:54,520 --> 00:58:57,360
Speaker 4: all of our NFL Week eleven podcasts right here on

1178
00:58:57,640 --> 00:58:58,720
Speaker 4: the Action Network.

1179
00:59:14,240 --> 00:59:18,760
Speaker 5: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1180
00:59:18,800 --> 00:59:21,560
Speaker 5: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1181
00:59:21,600 --> 00:59:24,680
Speaker 5: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler