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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action bowsome.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 3: Here we got growing in job spec.

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Speaker 1: I'm saying it to cats.

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Speaker 2: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go to win.

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Speaker 1: God, that's incredible. Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabash you want to pull.

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Speaker 2: And we are on the way.

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Speaker 1: What's up, everybody?

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by FanDuel.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Chris Raybond, and I'm excited to be

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Speaker 1: here today talking.

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Speaker 3: To the NFL with the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation,

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Speaker 3: none other than Stucky. And this is your AFC schedule

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Speaker 3: release pod. And I also want to point out that

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Speaker 3: later this week we'll have our Preakness Stakes betting preview,

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Speaker 3: so look out for that. Stuck what's going on?

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Speaker 2: What's up? Brother? Happy weekend. Always nice to spit some

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Speaker 2: NFL with you if you haven't checked it out. We

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Speaker 2: had our post or pre draft. You and I did

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Speaker 2: our pre draft episode, talked some division futures which most

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Speaker 2: of them are still out there, which we liked, went

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Speaker 2: through some of the wind totals. Then you and Freeman

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Speaker 2: did the post draft analysis and then this will be

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Speaker 2: the schedule this episode, and then later this summer once

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Speaker 2: the wind total markets have settled down, and obviously with

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Speaker 2: a lot of content on actionlywork dot Com, You and

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Speaker 2: I and maybe our colleague and friend Sean Kerner will

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Speaker 2: as we always do, in August twelve, a bunch of

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Speaker 2: episodes previewing all of the divisions, So keep an eye

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Speaker 2: out for that late in the summer. But it's it's

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Speaker 2: always good time to catch up after the schedules are

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Speaker 2: officially leaked and then released.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, I'm excited because you know, we're gonna kind

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Speaker 3: of talk through these you know, how these schedules.

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Speaker 1: Are looking and the implications.

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Speaker 3: But we're also going to use this episode to just

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Speaker 3: kind of go over our you know, more concrete updated

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Speaker 3: projections and thoughts and outlooks on these teams. Now that

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Speaker 3: the draft is complete, we got the schedule, we're pretty

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Speaker 3: much ready to go and kind of get into to

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Speaker 3: really kind of nail it down what we think these

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Speaker 3: teams are gonna look like. So it's good popping with

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Speaker 3: the Let's start with the Buffalo Bills. I think it's

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Speaker 3: interesting that they open at the Jets and I feel

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Speaker 3: like the Jets are already you know, like there's they've

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Speaker 3: been overrated since Aaron Rodgers became a reality. But I

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Speaker 3: think they're only I think the Bills are only like

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Speaker 3: a one to one and a half point favorite, which

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Speaker 3: I think is interesting because if there's ever a time

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Speaker 3: for Rogers to struggle Hacket to struggle, it would be

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Speaker 3: week one. He's no showed his last couple of week ones.

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Speaker 3: But what are your thoughts overall on how this Bills

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Speaker 3: team is taking shape and any notes on their on

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Speaker 3: their schedule?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Bills, I mean, look, we talked about this before.

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Speaker 2: Those are kind of rolling with what they got right. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: maybe a slight weakness at middle linebacker, but it's pretty

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Speaker 2: much much looks like that. We'll see if von Miller

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Speaker 2: can be helped. But st the roster that it's one

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Speaker 2: of the best in the NFL. If they had last

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Speaker 2: year and they're gonna run it back this year. The

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Speaker 2: interesting thing with the Bills is they I think their

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Speaker 2: division as a whole. There's still some questions with the Patriots,

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Speaker 2: but the division as a whole got more difficult, and

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Speaker 2: they're already in the AFC right because you bring Rogers

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Speaker 2: to the Jets. I do agree that the Jets are overrated,

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Speaker 2: but they definitely upgraded their weakest position on the team

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Speaker 2: at quarterback, which is obviously important. I think the Dolphins

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Speaker 2: are improved as well, so their division is tougher. They're

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Speaker 2: in a tough conference. I think their win totals like

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Speaker 2: under twelve. Juice, I'm right around. I project them right

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Speaker 2: around twelve. They do go to London and they will

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Speaker 2: lose a home game and play the Jags who already

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Speaker 2: be there, which is an interesting spot. The Jags have

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Speaker 2: two games in London. I think everyone knows that by now.

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Speaker 2: They have some tough road games out of division. We

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Speaker 2: were talking about their divisions, tough Stargers, Chiefs, Bengals, and Eagles.

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Speaker 2: Their bye is late. There's a couple of things I

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Speaker 2: do like about their schedule. You know, they get the

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Speaker 2: Eagles on coming off of a Monday night game on Sunday.

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Speaker 2: On a Sunday, Eagles are coming off a Monday night game.

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Speaker 2: They have a bye before they play the Chiefs, which

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Speaker 2: is really important. So you know, I think that you

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Speaker 2: know they're the end of the season. At least they

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Speaker 2: get a bye. But is brutal. I mean you're going

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Speaker 2: you Bengals, Broncos, Jets, Eagles, by Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers, Patriots, Dolphins,

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Speaker 2: four of last six on the road, and they go

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of like Marquee games that go October

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Speaker 2: twenty third to December thirty first, with only one one

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Speaker 2: PM game, So it's a tough schedule overall, their division's tougher.

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Speaker 2: I think that they're projected right on. So I don't

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Speaker 2: really have any hot takes on the Bills. I think

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Speaker 2: it's going to come down to health, that offensive line,

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Speaker 2: how it comes together, and then just Josh Allen like this,

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Speaker 2: we just how consistent can he be this year? But

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Speaker 2: I've projected Bills right around well. But the interesting thing, look,

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Speaker 2: they go to London, they have some tough road games,

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Speaker 2: but the Bills. When you think about the Bills, you say, oh,

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Speaker 2: they play in Buffalo and they get weather advantage, but really,

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Speaker 2: if you look at their offensive numbers, the Bills have

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Speaker 2: been a juggernaut away from home. So these tough road

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Speaker 2: games and playing in London, losing a home game playing

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Speaker 2: indoors over like, I don't think that that's that big

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Speaker 2: of a deal. So I project them right around twelve,

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Speaker 2: no value either way. But it's definitely a tough schedule

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Speaker 2: as you would expect, and they do lose a home

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Speaker 2: game having to go overseas the play a team they'll

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Speaker 2: already be there, which is definitely an interesting spot against Jacksonville.

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Speaker 2: Brutal finish to their schedule. But if the Bills are

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Speaker 2: who we thought, you know, we know there's not much

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Speaker 2: intriguer miss straight there, one of the best teams in

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Speaker 2: the NFL right there with the Chiefs.

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Speaker 3: Intriguing mystery that may be a little more descriptive of

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Speaker 3: the Bills Week one opponent, the Jets, So let's talk

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Speaker 3: about them. You know, I've made it clear that I

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Speaker 3: think this team is overrated. I'll probably be looking to

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Speaker 3: fade them more likely than that. I love I still

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Speaker 3: love the defense, but you know, we also know that

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Speaker 3: defense it's a little harder to maintain at a elite.

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Speaker 1: Level from year to year than offense.

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Speaker 3: And I also, you know, I don't know how much exactly,

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Speaker 3: I don't think we know exactly how much of Aaron

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Speaker 3: Rodgers's decline last year was due just solely to the

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Speaker 3: thumb injury, how much of it had to do with

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Speaker 3: losing Devonte Adams and how much of it had to

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Speaker 3: do with you know, just general age related decline. So

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Speaker 3: I think that's a big question kind of surrounding the Jets.

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Speaker 3: But again, I do think that week one is not

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Speaker 3: a great time to invest in them, and it doesn't

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Speaker 3: get like pretty you know, maybe it's better that they

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Speaker 3: might have been in line to lose anyway, so maybe

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Speaker 3: playing Buffalo at that point is actually better. But I

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Speaker 3: do think they're a good bet to kind of be

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Speaker 3: behind the eight ball in the division. And they also

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Speaker 3: got a match up with kc and in week four,

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Speaker 3: so it doesn't in Dallas and at Dallas in week two,

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Speaker 3: So the schedule makers really didn't let Aaron Rodgers ease

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Speaker 3: in at all. I mean, you go Buffalo at Dallas,

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Speaker 3: you play the Patriots, which you know that's always you know,

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Speaker 3: Bill Belichick's always going to be have something for you,

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Speaker 3: and then you play Kansas City and then go to

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Speaker 3: Denver and Mile High and then you play the the

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Speaker 3: NFC champion Eagles. So like the schedule makers, I mean,

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Speaker 3: that's kind of a brutal stretch to start the year

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Speaker 3: for New York.

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Speaker 1: But then they get to buy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so from a role. It's just you'll hear like Eagles,

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Speaker 2: for example, had the hardest schedule, but that's based just

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Speaker 2: on you know, wins last year, which is not a

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Speaker 2: great way to look at it. So when I mentioned

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Speaker 2: my strength of schedules, it's based on my power ratings

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Speaker 2: and then projecting out the wins and your opponent. So

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Speaker 2: I had the Bills with the fourth hardist schedule in

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Speaker 2: the NFL, won their division. They've woned each of the

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Speaker 2: last three years. I had the Jets with the third.

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Speaker 2: They have a tougher schedule overall. I mean, we're splitting

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Speaker 2: hairs here. But still, however, I you know, their win

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Speaker 2: totals about sitting right around I think it's like ten

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Speaker 2: under ten juiced, I'm at like nine to three. And

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Speaker 2: I do think they're a little overrated. Be looking to

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Speaker 2: faith them because I think Rogers is definitely on the decline. However,

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Speaker 2: there are some things I like about their schedule. So

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Speaker 2: they're in the AFC, you get nine home games, right,

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Speaker 2: and they don't play any overseas games. They have they

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Speaker 2: play at the Giants after a bye. That's basically close

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Speaker 2: as close to a home game as you can get, right,

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Speaker 2: So you could argue that they have nine and a

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Speaker 2: half ten home games, and then I like how their

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Speaker 2: schedule sets up weather wise, right, Like you get they

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Speaker 2: have a stretch of November twenty fourth, weather starts to

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Speaker 2: get a little iffy in New York. They play Miami

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Speaker 2: warm weather team Atlanta Dome team Houston three straight home

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Speaker 2: games end of November into December, and then they go

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Speaker 2: down to Miami in December. Like, if you're going to

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Speaker 2: go down to Miami, that's when you probably want to go.

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Speaker 2: You don't want to go when it's real hot and humid.

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Speaker 2: So I don't mind their I like how their schedule

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Speaker 2: breaks from a weather perspective. Their schedule is really tough

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Speaker 2: early on because they have that game against the Bills.

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Speaker 2: You know, you lose that game on Monday. Now you

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Speaker 2: have a short week, and then you're going to Dallas,

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Speaker 2: You're coming home for New England before a hyped game

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Speaker 2: against the Chiefs, and then you know, you got the

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Speaker 2: Broncos on the road in altitude before you play the

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Speaker 2: Eagles at home. So the Jets season I like some

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Speaker 2: like how it breaks later and you could argue they

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Speaker 2: have almost ten home games. I like the second half

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Speaker 2: of the schedule, just some of the intangibles, but this

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Speaker 2: could get They could bury themselves early on and you

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Speaker 2: cannot escape a hole in the AFC if they start

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Speaker 2: say one in five, two and four, which isn't out

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Speaker 2: of the question here, So yeah, all eyes on that

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Speaker 2: early part of the schedule. I would lean under jets.

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Speaker 2: I don't have enough to fade it, fade them and

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Speaker 2: go under yet that might change as the summer goes on.

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Speaker 2: We'll keep an eye on numbers and I'll find my numbers.

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Speaker 2: But if they're definitely a team, I'm gonna be looking

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Speaker 2: to fade early because I do think that they're overvied

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Speaker 2: in the marketing. A lot of that is because I

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Speaker 2: believe Rogers is on the Decline's only natural father times undefeated,

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Speaker 2: but really interesting, like really tough early part of the schedule.

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Speaker 2: I'd like some of the things later, but overall, it's

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Speaker 2: very difficult schedule for team that didn't win their division.

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Speaker 3: Let me ask you this before you move on, Like,

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Speaker 3: would you make them a road favorite at Denver in

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Speaker 3: Week five?

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Speaker 2: Yes? I do. I've been favored in ten games, Like,

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Speaker 2: but you know you could give them We'll say, gimme's

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Speaker 2: any favored by over you know, six or more. Only

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Speaker 2: two games, Yeah, the Texans and Washington at home. That's it.

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Speaker 2: So there's a lot of coin flips in here. I

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Speaker 2: do make them a favorite at Denver raw numbers wise, No,

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Speaker 2: I haven't even adjusted it for a spot like that's

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Speaker 2: after the Chiefs before the Eagles in altitude.

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Speaker 3: And den could be better than we think. I don't

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Speaker 3: think we're. I don't think we're Either of us are

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Speaker 3: very high on Denver at a moment.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it'll be called. I would may probably make it

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Speaker 2: close to a pick and numbers wise as I make

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Speaker 2: them a favorite, but I also have it circled as

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Speaker 2: like one of the toughest spots of the entire season.

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Speaker 2: You're sandwiched in between uh, the two teams that went

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Speaker 2: to the Super Bowl last year in altitude early on

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Speaker 2: in the season where yeah, so first week of October,

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Speaker 2: so yeah, that would be close to a coin flip.

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Speaker 2: And you know, you lose that game and then you're

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Speaker 2: talking Chiefs, Eagles, Bills at Cowboys in a short week.

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Speaker 2: You know, give them the Patriots, but you lose that

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Speaker 2: Broncos swing game. It's not out of their own possibility.

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Speaker 2: They start one to five, and then how do you

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Speaker 2: dig out of that hole in the AFC. But if

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Speaker 2: they can somehow get like three, start three and three

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Speaker 2: and Rogers looks good, and then this team definitely has

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Speaker 2: some promise. But uh, I'm on the cell side like you.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and again I don't I really have question marks

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Speaker 3: about my Hackett as well, you know, not just Rogers,

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Speaker 3: but you know, Hacket's really not proving himself to be

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Speaker 3: a play caller of any you know that that's adding

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Speaker 3: anything positive. So yeah, there's a lot of I don't

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Speaker 3: like the Jets at all. I'm pretty well and I'm

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Speaker 3: one of the teams I'm lowest on. But let's let's

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Speaker 3: pick it up here the Dolphins. I think we both

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Speaker 3: like the Dolphins. Last time we spoke, you know, what

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Speaker 3: are your thoughts on them, you know, coming out of

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Speaker 3: the draft, and now that the schedules out.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I was surprised. Mean I project them at like

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Speaker 2: not their win totals nine and a half unders juiced

251
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Speaker 2: a little bit. I project them like nine seven, nine

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Speaker 2: to eight. But I do have them tower rated higher

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Speaker 2: than the Jets. And we we talked about this before.

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Speaker 2: I think that they're the team to look at in

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Speaker 2: the division. They also are a team that I think

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Speaker 2: you can look at with bigger upside if you want

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Speaker 2: to take a shot for a longer shot. You know,

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Speaker 2: I don't think it's the NFL these days you could

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Speaker 2: take like a super long shot. But in the AFC,

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Speaker 2: a team that if the quarterback position comes together. I

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Speaker 2: like the coaching. I think that, you know, I like

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Speaker 2: some of the moves on defense that they made. So

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Speaker 2: they only have seven road games, which is important because

264
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Speaker 2: they go to they go to London, or they go

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Speaker 2: to Germany and play Kansas City. I was surprised. I

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Speaker 2: thought they were gonna send Tyree to Kansas City. So

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Speaker 2: I think that's a break that they get there. I

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Speaker 2: don't believe that they play any teams coming off of

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Speaker 2: a bye. By the way, we'll talk about this. Two

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Speaker 2: teams play four teams coming off of a bye, which

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Speaker 2: is insane, the forty nine Ers and the Rams four

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Speaker 2: teams coming off bys. No other team plays more than

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Speaker 2: two coming go by. Then there's a handful that don't

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Speaker 2: play any coming off of a bye. So yeah, I

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Speaker 2: think that's the schedule. If I look, you know, you

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Speaker 2: only get seven road games, you get Kansas City in

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Speaker 2: London instead of going to Kansas City. That's a huge break.

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Speaker 2: And you know I just mentioned that the Bills in

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Speaker 2: the doll Dolphins overall for my power ratings have a

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Speaker 2: top four schedule. Well, I do have the Dolphins number two.

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Speaker 2: As you would expect, they got to play. They're in

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Speaker 2: the IFC, they're in that division. They do have a

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Speaker 2: really tough schedule, But the way that it was constructed,

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Speaker 2: I don't. I don't think that you know, they didn't

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Speaker 2: get any like, hey, you have three straight brutal road games.

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Speaker 2: I don't. There's not like terrible spots. They play some

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Speaker 2: good teams. They get to buy after London. A lot

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Speaker 2: of the teams are after Germany. I should say, a

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Speaker 2: lot of the team's going overseas. Don't didn't elect to

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Speaker 2: take that this year. But I think that their buy

291
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Speaker 2: is in a good spot in Week ten. And uh yeah,

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Speaker 2: I don't. I don't hate the schedule. I think it's

293
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Speaker 2: pretty fair. We know it was going to be tough,

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Speaker 2: and I think that they made out just with that

295
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Speaker 2: Chiefs game. So yeah, still high on the Dolphins for upside,

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Speaker 2: pretty I would lean their over win total, but I

297
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Speaker 2: think division future if you're more bullish on to A

298
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Speaker 2: and that defense, Like, I think that defense is going

299
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Speaker 2: to be take that next step, which is really important

300
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Speaker 2: with Fangio. Their corners were so banged up last you're

301
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Speaker 2: bringing even bringing in Long, but you bring in Ramsey,

302
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Speaker 2: So I think their defense is going to be take

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Speaker 2: a big step forward. And then I think to A

304
00:16:17,400 --> 00:16:19,120
Speaker 2: will as well. Then we have Mike White, who we

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Speaker 2: love there if need be, because there's always the concussion

306
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Speaker 2: question as well. So yeah, Dolphins hard schedule as expected,

307
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Speaker 2: but I think it broke their way and I still

308
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Speaker 2: think they're definitely a viable target for some longer shots.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean this, you know this AFC East could

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Speaker 3: conceive what we have the four best defenses in the conference.

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Speaker 3: I mean they all four of those defenses. Uh what what,

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Speaker 3: They're gonna be pretty good. But I agree with you

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Speaker 3: on the Dolphins, Like I was looking at them, you

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Speaker 3: know even you know, they put the Chargers in l

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Speaker 3: A in Week one, and I'm looking at this like

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Speaker 3: this is like like they're not really out match Like

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Speaker 3: they match up well.

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Speaker 1: With with pretty much anybody.

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Speaker 3: So you know, every year there's usually like that one

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Speaker 3: team that takes the jumps to to and it kind

321
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Speaker 3: of comes out of nowhere and becomes an elite team,

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Speaker 3: like you know the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: Not that it came out of nowhere. I think we

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Speaker 1: both expected them to do that.

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Speaker 3: But the Dolphins were very good despite a lot of

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Speaker 3: injuries in that in McDaniel's first year, and they were

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Speaker 3: number eight in DVOA. They were seventh on offense with

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Speaker 3: two of missing you know what, four games and parts

329
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Speaker 3: of others. And they even had an above average defense

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Speaker 3: as well. So like they're I think things are looking

331
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Speaker 3: up for Miami if they can, you know, get a

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Speaker 3: little better injury.

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Speaker 1: Look, I think they're what people think the Jets. I've

334
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Speaker 1: said it before.

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Speaker 3: I think they're what people want the Jets to be

336
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Speaker 3: as far as you know, taking that jump.

337
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look, we said that only have seven

338
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Speaker 2: road games. One of them's at the Chargers to start

339
00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:53,400
Speaker 2: the year, one of the small First of all, you're

340
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Speaker 2: going that's one of your West Coast road games. It's

341
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Speaker 2: the first game of the year, right, travels on an issue,

342
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Speaker 2: and that's one of the smallest home old advantages in

343
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Speaker 2: the NFL. You're also at Washington, also another team out

344
00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:09,119
Speaker 2: a great home field, advantage, So yeah, it's very maginal.

345
00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:10,520
Speaker 2: I think that they would have been better off having

346
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Speaker 2: a couple other tougher games at home early in the

347
00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:16,040
Speaker 2: season just for that heat, which they didn't get. But

348
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Speaker 2: other than that, I kind of liked the schedule even

349
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Speaker 2: because you knew it was going to be a gauntlet regardless.

350
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean that playing Buffalo in Miami early last year,

351
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Speaker 3: I might have single handedly, like won the weather, might

352
00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:29,040
Speaker 3: have won them that game because remember that was a

353
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Speaker 3: game where everyone on Buffalo was collapsing.

354
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Speaker 1: So now they got to play Buffalo. They don't play.

355
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Speaker 3: Untill what week, the last week of the season, So yeah,

356
00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:39,359
Speaker 3: that's not ideal. But yeah, I just from a just

357
00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:42,160
Speaker 3: from a quality of the team perspective, I really like Miami,

358
00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:45,080
Speaker 3: and then we have New England, which you know, kind

359
00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:47,720
Speaker 3: of getting lost in the shuffle here. I feel like

360
00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:52,000
Speaker 3: most of their offseason has been geared at continuing to

361
00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:54,040
Speaker 3: improve that defense.

362
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Speaker 1: Any thoughts on a New England?

363
00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:00,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, not a fan of what New England did in

364
00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:05,439
Speaker 2: the offseason. Overall, I project them only like a seven

365
00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:07,840
Speaker 2: point two wins, like usually get a Belichick bump, But look,

366
00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:10,480
Speaker 2: I mean, look at this track record since Brady's left,

367
00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:13,680
Speaker 2: It's like, is he still deserving and a bump Stall

368
00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:15,240
Speaker 2: Hall of Fame coach, one of the best of all time,

369
00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:19,119
Speaker 2: But they've definitely lost the step there in Foxborough. I

370
00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:21,960
Speaker 2: project them I would lean under, not enough to play it.

371
00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:25,000
Speaker 2: As of right now, they're definitely, I think the worst

372
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:27,800
Speaker 2: team in this division. We'll see what happens with mac

373
00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:32,080
Speaker 2: Jones just getting bad vibes out of the camp there.

374
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:38,160
Speaker 2: Schedule was what I expected. Nothing crazy. By week eleven,

375
00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:41,720
Speaker 2: they do lose a home game to Overseas, they play

376
00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:44,639
Speaker 2: the Colts and then they get a bye after that

377
00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:51,600
Speaker 2: before going to the Giants. They get an extended rest

378
00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:54,080
Speaker 2: before the Chiefs because they played the Steelers on a

379
00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:55,919
Speaker 2: Thursday night, then the Chiefs on a Monday night the

380
00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:59,800
Speaker 2: following week, but then you have a short week going

381
00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:04,440
Speaker 2: to Denver. So schedule is not crazy either way. Not

382
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:06,919
Speaker 2: really high on the Patriots. I think that they're going

383
00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:10,840
Speaker 2: to bring up the rear in this division. Nothing, nothing

384
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:13,639
Speaker 2: really knows where they Yeah, yeah, with the schedule.

385
00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:17,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're they're definitely the least intriguing team in the

386
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:20,919
Speaker 3: in this division, but they may very well still be

387
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:23,919
Speaker 3: kind of a spoiler because Remember, all these teams have

388
00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:26,639
Speaker 3: good defenses, and the Patriots are always going to be

389
00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:31,040
Speaker 3: liable to win any divisional matchups, so that'll be interesting. Well,

390
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:34,480
Speaker 3: let's go to the Ravens in the North. They start

391
00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:39,400
Speaker 3: the year with a nice, little cushy home game against

392
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:43,320
Speaker 3: the Houston Texans. They also get the Indianapolis Colts in

393
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:47,679
Speaker 3: week three, which could be advantageous because you know, the

394
00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:50,639
Speaker 3: Coats might be in some type of transitional period with

395
00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:54,480
Speaker 3: the quarterback situation, or you know, be one of Richardson's

396
00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:58,040
Speaker 3: first starts. Like there's so I think I thought Baltimore

397
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:00,159
Speaker 3: could have had a pretty has a pretty good to

398
00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:03,119
Speaker 3: early season schedule. Late in the year it gets tougher.

399
00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 2: But what did you do?

400
00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:04,359
Speaker 1: What'd you think?

401
00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:06,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, by the way, the Patriots with per my numbers

402
00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:10,280
Speaker 2: with the toughest schedule in the Sirenicle, which makes sense.

403
00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:13,879
Speaker 2: They're with their division in conference. Raven's middle of the

404
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:17,119
Speaker 2: pack as far as my schedule strength of schedule ranking.

405
00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:21,440
Speaker 2: And yeah, you mentioned it early on. This is a team.

406
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:24,120
Speaker 2: Obviously Lamar Jackson is back. I think they have better

407
00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:26,280
Speaker 2: depth of wide receiver. I still have questions about the

408
00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:31,840
Speaker 2: pass rush and corner but they're due for some injury.

409
00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 2: After the past two years, they're due for some positive

410
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:39,720
Speaker 2: injury luck. I like the way that the schedule broke overall.

411
00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 2: They you mentioned Houston could get a roughie rookie quarterback.

412
00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:45,879
Speaker 2: Week one, you got your revenge game against Cincy. You

413
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:50,320
Speaker 2: could get a rookie quarterback. Week three, you could get

414
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:54,680
Speaker 2: a rookie quarterback. Week six in London, you played Tennessee

415
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:57,679
Speaker 2: And by the way, that's that's a road game. They

416
00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:01,679
Speaker 2: only have seven road games you could get. And then

417
00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:03,719
Speaker 2: you have Kyler Marray week eight. You probably won't get

418
00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:05,640
Speaker 2: Kyler Marray from what I'm thinking, so you might get

419
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 2: a backup with Arizona there. So I like how the

420
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:16,439
Speaker 2: schedule broke overall. There's a lot more travel than last year.

421
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 2: Last year they barely traveled at all. But there's, you know,

422
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:21,959
Speaker 2: a bunch of West coast trips and I think they

423
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,479
Speaker 2: tripled the amount of miles. And they have the latest

424
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:26,960
Speaker 2: buy that they've had since two thousand and one. So

425
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 2: we'll see if they could finally stay healthy. And if

426
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 2: they do, then that could that buy could prove very

427
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:39,679
Speaker 2: beneficial to kind of as a reset going into the

428
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:43,560
Speaker 2: stretch run. And you know, they close with they get

429
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 2: after the bye, they get the Rams at home, which

430
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 2: is when. But then you're at the Jags, at the

431
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:51,320
Speaker 2: Niners on Christmas night, and then home on a short

432
00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:54,200
Speaker 2: week back across the country from Miami and then home

433
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:57,240
Speaker 2: against the Steelers, So that that's not an easy stretch

434
00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 2: that the year, which could make or break like the

435
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 2: division or do they get the playoffs because you know

436
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:03,639
Speaker 2: how tough the ASC is. They're also traveling to the

437
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 2: Chargers after our home game with the Bengals, but they

438
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:10,399
Speaker 2: do get some extra rest before that, so I think overall,

439
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:13,760
Speaker 2: I like how the schedule broke, but yeah, we'll see

440
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 2: how they Just like I like the beginning part of

441
00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:19,560
Speaker 2: their schedule outside of you're going to the Browns to

442
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 2: the Steelers, right to division road games, and then you're

443
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 2: going to London to take take on a feisty Titans

444
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 2: team that's a big swing game just in your season

445
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 2: win totals, and then you're coming home the week right

446
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 2: after that and playing the Lions before heading out to

447
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 2: the West Coast. So like, just to travel early on

448
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:42,840
Speaker 2: it could be a little tricky. There's a couple of

449
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:46,280
Speaker 2: tricky spots there. I actually show a little value on

450
00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:53,639
Speaker 2: the over for the Ravens upside for division and Super Bowl,

451
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 2: I prefer the Browns. I think the Browns and Ravens

452
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,199
Speaker 2: are similarly power right. I think like the offensive coordinatater

453
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:03,960
Speaker 2: change will help the Ravens initially early on, it's gonna

454
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,119
Speaker 2: be the element of surprise. But their schedules not that

455
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 2: difficult early on, so maybe that works against them. But

456
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:13,360
Speaker 2: I think that the Browns actually have the higher stealing

457
00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 2: and I really love what they did on the off season,

458
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,400
Speaker 2: and you get a better price with them obviously. So yeah,

459
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 2: I think that the Ravens' schedule overall pretty fair. They're

460
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 2: due for some injury luck here, I would I do

461
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 2: show enough value to bet their win total over not

462
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 2: enough on futures.

463
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:33,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, it's kind of the theme with I

464
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:35,680
Speaker 3: would say the both of these divisions that we've talked

465
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:39,800
Speaker 3: about in AFC, the East and the North. There the

466
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:43,200
Speaker 3: divisional matchups are going to be so brutal, and like

467
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:47,640
Speaker 3: all of these teams could conceivably be better than preseason

468
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 3: expectations at the same time, like it could just be

469
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 3: a gaultlet within the division for these teams, and that

470
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:55,479
Speaker 3: you know, that's going to obviously have impact as far

471
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 3: as win totals and things like that, because you know,

472
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 3: I always think there's more variance when you when you

473
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:02,440
Speaker 3: kind of look at like a divisional game, Like I said,

474
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:04,879
Speaker 3: the Patriots are viable to really to beat any of

475
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 3: those teams in their division. So on Pittsburgh, I would

476
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 3: say the same thing about in this division. So yeah,

477
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 3: I think the brown just because you're getting that price

478
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 3: with the Browns, I do agree, but I don't.

479
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 1: I don't mind the.

480
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:21,679
Speaker 3: Raven's future because I do I am kind of interested

481
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:26,880
Speaker 3: in Lamar Jackson with what should be the best receiving

482
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:30,400
Speaker 3: corps that he's ever had, you know he had, you know, and.

483
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:33,400
Speaker 2: You know Beckham's star. I don't know what Beckham star

484
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 2: that's And like you know, when the ray I always

485
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 2: talk about this when Flacco won that when they won

486
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl. They fired their offensive coordinator, Cam Cameron

487
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:49,160
Speaker 2: in December and people forget that, and they brought in

488
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:54,440
Speaker 2: a new offensive coordinator. And I almost feel like if

489
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:59,159
Speaker 2: they did that like in November this year, like fired

490
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 2: the fired their offensive coordinator and then brought in a

491
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:06,239
Speaker 2: new one with the element of surprise with Lamar and

492
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 2: because I just don't know that offense, with that passing

493
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:12,520
Speaker 2: offense right after there's gonna be a whole season of tape.

494
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 2: It's gonna be able to get through the gauntlet of

495
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:19,880
Speaker 2: the AFC. That's my worry because I just don't know.

496
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 2: I'm a huge Flowers guy. I loved him. I would

497
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:25,119
Speaker 2: love that they got him still a rookie wide receiver.

498
00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 2: I don't know if what Beckham has left post injury

499
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:30,520
Speaker 2: at his age, and they're gonna need him to be

500
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,919
Speaker 2: close to one and I'm not sure that he's there.

501
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 2: I would think that I think that the Browns actually

502
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 2: have a little higher upside and they have a better price.

503
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:45,159
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean they're gonna have to solid. I

504
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:48,000
Speaker 2: still also where there are some questions on this Ravens defense,

505
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 2: still like the pass rush, the second corner spot. But yeah,

506
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 2: I mean, you want to talk about just good, great

507
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:58,360
Speaker 2: special teams are gonna be well coached, and they're due

508
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 2: for just enormous injury positive injury regression. And if you

509
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:05,600
Speaker 2: look at this division as a whole, and we'll talk

510
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 2: about the other teams, right, I guess now, But if

511
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:11,920
Speaker 2: I was going to target two teams to wager on

512
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 2: or invest in it would be either the Ravens or

513
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 2: the Browns. If you look at the Bengals over the

514
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 2: past two years, one of the luckiest teams in the

515
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 2: NFL from an injury standpoint. Last year, the luckiest was

516
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 2: the Steelers. Believe it or not, they were. They had

517
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 2: the fewest games lost to injury overall. And I know

518
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 2: the Bengals had their offensive line injuries late as far

519
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:34,919
Speaker 2: as timeliness, but overall, Bengals last two years very lucky,

520
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 2: very fortunate injury wise. Steelers the luckiest last year, still

521
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:43,120
Speaker 2: didn't make the playoffs. And this they played nine quarterbacks

522
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 2: who aren't going to be starting this year. And if

523
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 2: you look, shout out to my guy Cleve Tia saw

524
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 2: this tweet the other day. The most dropbacks last year

525
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 2: faced of quarterbacks ranked thirtieth or below an EPA per dropback,

526
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:04,240
Speaker 2: the Bengals were number one. Forty three percent of the

527
00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 2: dropbacks they faced were against quarterbacks ranked thirtieth or lower.

528
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 2: Dallas was second, Jacksonville was third, and so and look,

529
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,399
Speaker 2: Bengals have benefited from the Lamar stuff. I mean, look

530
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 2: at the quarterbacks who have been in that division the

531
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:20,920
Speaker 2: past couple years. You had Watson miss half the year,

532
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 2: you had the Steelers trying to figure out who their

533
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 2: quarterback was, you had Lamar miss all that time. Now

534
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 2: you kind of have like, all right, Watson going into

535
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 2: a full season. You have Lamar presumably in better injury luck.

536
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:36,680
Speaker 2: With the Ravens, I'm not the biggest Kenny Pickt fan,

537
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 2: but they have their quarterback and I think that they've

538
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:42,240
Speaker 2: improved their roster a little bit. So I think the

539
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 2: Bengals are the team I'm looking to fade overall. I'm

540
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 2: still not a believer in Picket. I'm not a believer

541
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 2: in Canada. But I loved the Steelers draft, and I

542
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 2: project them right on like eight to six. I thought

543
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:59,080
Speaker 2: I was gonna be going under their win totals, like

544
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:02,200
Speaker 2: under nine gies. We know the Tomlins stat But yeah,

545
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 2: I think that the Bengals have just been very fortunate

546
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 2: in this division and there I think that they might

547
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 2: be overvalued here because of that. I show enough value

548
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 2: in their wind total under They have the tenth hardest

549
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 2: schedule for my numbers, Browns, for what it's worth, the twentieth,

550
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 2: and Steelers right in the middle of the road, just

551
00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 2: like the Ravens. But yeah, I'd be targeting Brown's and

552
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:32,960
Speaker 2: Ravens in this division. I think you like the Steelers too,

553
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:36,960
Speaker 2: but Brown's division's probably my favorite bet for the upside.

554
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's I mean, the Brown's biggest question is is

555
00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 3: that quarterback somehow you know, like that, But like it

556
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:45,560
Speaker 3: doesn't have to be a question if like Watson can

557
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 3: kind of end that real quick, if he just kind

558
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 3: of shows that he's still capable of doing what he did.

559
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 1: Prior to all, you know, sitting out and all that stuff.

560
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:58,280
Speaker 3: But it's it is somewhat of a concern just because

561
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 3: like you know, these guys don't always bounce back, you know,

562
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 3: like it's sometimes guys just it's not necessarily fully physical,

563
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 3: but it's not necessarily full of mental either, Like it's

564
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 3: kind of a combination.

565
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 1: So like because he just didn't look quite right last year.

566
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 2: So yeah, I show value in the wind the Browns

567
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 2: win total over, but I prefer the futures because of

568
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 2: that variance with Watson, Like I'm projecting how I think

569
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 2: he's going to be. We've seen it before, so if

570
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 2: he can get back to where he was, then I mean,

571
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:33,880
Speaker 2: just the distribution of potential results for the Browns is

572
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 2: I think pretty as wide as you're going to see

573
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:39,360
Speaker 2: in the NFL this year, which is why I prefer

574
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 2: going on the upside. And then if you were, like

575
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 2: you don't believe in Watson, maybe like an all win

576
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 2: total hunter, because then it could all fall to pieces.

577
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 2: But there's other things I like about the Browns, like

578
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 2: they address some of their into your defensive line issues.

579
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 2: New defensive coordinator I think is going to do wonders

580
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 2: for that defense. I talked about that all last year

581
00:30:56,320 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 2: with all the communication issues. Just fixing little things and

582
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 2: communication I think is going to do wonders. You know,

583
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 2: they didn't have great injury luck last year either, and

584
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 2: they added speed at receiver, which I think they needed.

585
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think that if Watson hits, this team

586
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 2: has significant upside, and I think there's a lot of

587
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 2: value in division futures. And then if you want to

588
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 2: get crazy, they're a team that could go through the

589
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 2: Gauntlet if Watson gets back to what he was in

590
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 2: his prime, because that's what you need. You need an

591
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 2: elite quarterback to get through the AFC, and they potentially

592
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:36,840
Speaker 2: have that. We don't know, but that's why I think

593
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 2: I prefer the futures with the additional barans in the

594
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:41,240
Speaker 2: wind totals.

595
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know, from my perspective, I know we

596
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 3: had we kind of talked through we basically found a

597
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:50,280
Speaker 3: team I think it was from almost every division that

598
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 3: we kind of liked heading into the draft. Is just

599
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 3: like a long shot either for the division or just

600
00:31:55,800 --> 00:32:00,520
Speaker 3: something like that. Like for me, I ultimately ended up settling. Uh,

601
00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 3: Like my favorites are, you know, the the Falcons, the Seahawks.

602
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 1: And the Titans.

603
00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 3: And that's simply because in some of these other divisions,

604
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 3: it's like, yeah, I think certain teams are undervalued, but

605
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,680
Speaker 3: there's generally like more than one that stick out, which

606
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 3: kind of makes it a little tougher I think to

607
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 3: cash because there's just like there's just so many ways

608
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 3: that this could go in this in this division with

609
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 3: like even Pitts, Like Pittsburgh could be a fourth place

610
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:33,480
Speaker 3: team that's nine and eight or something like that, you know,

611
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 3: base based on the fact that they never.

612
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 1: Lose, you know, more games than they win under Tom wins.

613
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 3: So it kind of just it kind of kills the

614
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 3: value a little bit, especially when you consider you just

615
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 3: kind of tying up money for a lot of a

616
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 3: lot of these a lot of these futures in these

617
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 3: in these two divisions, So you know, as we start

618
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:52,239
Speaker 3: to get into these other divisions, that's why I'm kind

619
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 3: of a little more bullish and and also why I'm kind.

620
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:57,160
Speaker 1: Of fading or not fading.

621
00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:58,800
Speaker 3: But it's a little tougher for me to go all

622
00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 3: in on teams in that NFC North as well, which

623
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:02,000
Speaker 3: we'll talk about.

624
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 2: But now the Browns do get like, you gotta wats

625
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 2: has got to hit early for that division, but you

626
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 2: have it early by two, which isn't great. Week five

627
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:12,280
Speaker 2: by but they got Bengals, Steelers, Ravens three of the

628
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 2: first four, and they got a brutal travel schedule in

629
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:18,160
Speaker 2: the middle, but you got you're out out at Denver

630
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:20,959
Speaker 2: and then the Rams you can stay out west, and

631
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 2: I like their closing stretcher home against the Jags, home

632
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 2: against the Bears at the Texans home against the Jets,

633
00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 2: and then you have that's a Thursday night game. Week seventeen,

634
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 2: did they open with the Bengals home dog home division

635
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 2: dogs by the way smack? Week one? They get one

636
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 2: and five against the spread steals and nine. They're a

637
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:45,440
Speaker 2: small home dog. I will be on the Browns in

638
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 2: that game, but they close with the Bengals, maybe that

639
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 2: could decide the division. They have ten days to prepare

640
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:57,600
Speaker 2: for that game. And talk about injury luck. The Bengals

641
00:33:57,640 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 2: are maybe due for some injuries, but they got ten

642
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 2: that could that couldn't matter. They play Thursday Jets and

643
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 2: in ten days before that Week eighteen game at Cincy.

644
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:13,440
Speaker 2: So I like how the schedule set up, and you

645
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:14,800
Speaker 2: know they do have They're on the road five of

646
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:17,320
Speaker 2: seven starting with Week seven. That's with some trips. I

647
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 2: think they could stay out West, and I like I

648
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:22,560
Speaker 2: like this Cleveland team for a lot of the reasons

649
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:23,439
Speaker 2: I mentioned.

650
00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:27,400
Speaker 3: All right, let's uh, let's go to the let's go

651
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:32,399
Speaker 3: to this this AFC South, Uh, because in this one,

652
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 3: this is one where I am really bullish on the Titans.

653
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:39,799
Speaker 1: I feel like they're just kind of being left for dead.

654
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 2: Uh.

655
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:41,920
Speaker 1: You know, even even the way you.

656
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 3: Know, kind of the tanking talk is being framed, I

657
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:47,440
Speaker 3: think it's being framed wrong. Like you know, when the

658
00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:49,880
Speaker 3: last time they changed quarterbacks, it was because they were

659
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:52,319
Speaker 3: trying to win, like they It does like if if

660
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 3: if will Levis ends up playing, I think it's far

661
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:59,080
Speaker 3: more likely it's because he's he could he has earned

662
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:00,560
Speaker 3: the job, or gives them the bet chance to win.

663
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 3: Then it's like, oh yeah, they're just they're just going

664
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:03,279
Speaker 3: to throw in the towel in like one of the

665
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 3: weakest divisions in football after they started seven and three

666
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 3: last year and then you know, just barely missed out

667
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:09,600
Speaker 3: on the playoffs.

668
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:10,400
Speaker 2: I don't see it.

669
00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 1: So I'm pretty bush on the Titans.

670
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:14,960
Speaker 2: I think.

671
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:18,480
Speaker 3: I think they are a good bet in Week one

672
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:21,399
Speaker 3: as well. I'm pretty well in the Saints. But I'm

673
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 3: curious as to what your thoughts are on what I

674
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 3: think is going to be the Titans' main competition, which

675
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:30,319
Speaker 3: is the Jacksonville Jaguars, because I kind of see some

676
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 3: reasons to be a little bit bearish on them compared

677
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 3: to the market.

678
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:36,880
Speaker 1: But curious as to your thoughts.

679
00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:39,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, and by the way, one final note on the

680
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:41,319
Speaker 2: Steelers seel Sids want to hear this. Most of their

681
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 2: tough games are at home. They play two Thursday night games,

682
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 2: both at home. We know home teams fare better on

683
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:51,360
Speaker 2: Thursday nights. And we'll see if Tomlin can avoid and

684
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:52,759
Speaker 2: they get the forty nine Ers in Week one. Right

685
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:54,880
Speaker 2: with quarterback questions, that's a good time to get the

686
00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:59,000
Speaker 2: forty nine ers. They get the Texans week four rookie quarterback.

687
00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:01,800
Speaker 2: Presumably we'll see if Tomlin can avoid the classic Tomlins

688
00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:06,040
Speaker 2: spot there. That's at Houston after going to the Raiders

689
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:09,319
Speaker 2: before the Ravens at home. But yeah, Titans. I love

690
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 2: the Titans. I show VALI in the win total, show

691
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 2: value in the division. Just talked about the Jags. There

692
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 2: were six to one last year to win the division.

693
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:19,919
Speaker 2: Now they're the overwhelming favorite. Just talked about how lucky

694
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 2: they were with quarterbacks. They faced one of the healthiest

695
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 2: teams in the entire NFL last year, grade one possession games,

696
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 2: just a very fortunate year. They still a lot of

697
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 2: questions on defense. I still have some questions with the

698
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:35,319
Speaker 2: offensive line. I think that the Jags are overrated. I

699
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 2: am in the rookie quarterbacks. You're talking maybe the Colts

700
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 2: sever rookie quarterback, maybe the Texans, assuming both will at

701
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:50,240
Speaker 2: some point. Rookie quarterbacks historically have not fared well against

702
00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 2: the spread. Just overall, I don't trust either of those teams,

703
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:58,080
Speaker 2: or rosters or a rookie quarterback. I think this is

704
00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:04,000
Speaker 2: the Titans win total over and for the division. I

705
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 2: project them at like you can either win to it

706
00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:11,440
Speaker 2: all over seven juice or under seven and a half juice.

707
00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:17,120
Speaker 2: I project them only eight four eight point four wins.

708
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 2: One of my biggest values that I'm showing right now,

709
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:27,319
Speaker 2: and I have them with one of the sixth six

710
00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:29,880
Speaker 2: easiest schedules, as you would expect in that division, but

711
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 2: they're in a tough conference, so having one of the

712
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 2: six easiest schedules, I do like they have three straight

713
00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:39,279
Speaker 2: road games in the middle, but it's you know, at Pittsburgh,

714
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:43,319
Speaker 2: then they're at Tampa with extended rest, and at Jacksonville.

715
00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:47,880
Speaker 2: Manageable their division. The interesting thing with the tent with

716
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:51,120
Speaker 2: Tennessee's they do lose a home game because they get

717
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:55,319
Speaker 2: Baltimore in London, and then they get a bye after that.

718
00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:59,840
Speaker 2: The Cults are their only divisional game over the first

719
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:05,880
Speaker 2: ten weeks. But so they're they're like the division is

720
00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:07,439
Speaker 2: going to be decided at the end of this year.

721
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:09,240
Speaker 2: At the end of the year, I mean they host

722
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 2: the Jags at the end of the year. Before that

723
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:12,719
Speaker 2: they get the Texans two weeks where that they get

724
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:15,879
Speaker 2: the Texans, you know, Colts Jags, like they're they're back

725
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:20,000
Speaker 2: into the schedules all division games. I trust in this

726
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:23,840
Speaker 2: coaching staff. Remember last year they were crushed by injuries,

727
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 2: them with the Broncos, and you know, we're absolutely they

728
00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:29,920
Speaker 2: lost their last seven they were seven and three. That's

729
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:31,880
Speaker 2: some lucky win some un lucky losses, and then they

730
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 2: lost their last seven games. Fortunately for me in the

731
00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:38,200
Speaker 2: win to Under. But this team has a lot of

732
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:40,839
Speaker 2: depth now on defense, I assume they're going to keep

733
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:45,279
Speaker 2: Tannehill and Henry it's still vrable. People forget how much

734
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:50,239
Speaker 2: he always overperforms week Division. I think the time is

735
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:53,680
Speaker 2: right to buy them while selling the Jags. No interest

736
00:38:54,239 --> 00:39:00,920
Speaker 2: in Indianapolis or Houston. I mean Houston as I mean,

737
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:04,719
Speaker 2: they're the most. They're the most. We could spend one

738
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 2: minute on Houston. We'll see. I'm not a stroud guy.

739
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:09,840
Speaker 2: We'll see how he does. But you know they have

740
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 2: a bye week and then play Carolina in Week eight.

741
00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 2: Caroline is also off of a bye. That could be

742
00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:17,200
Speaker 2: one verse two in the draft. Only happened four other

743
00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 2: times at quarterbacks. But they play all their games around Sundays,

744
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 2: no prime time. They do play four straight games against

745
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:26,480
Speaker 2: the NFC South, and they're in a pretty weak division,

746
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 2: but I project them pretty much right on. Not a

747
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:40,640
Speaker 2: fan of Indianapolis Colts. For what it's worth, I project

748
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:44,640
Speaker 2: about six wins, their win totals sitting like six point seven.

749
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:52,200
Speaker 2: Once you account for Juice Houston, I project five eight

750
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:55,319
Speaker 2: their win totals like six point two. They do have

751
00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:59,160
Speaker 2: one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. But I

752
00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:02,200
Speaker 2: think this is all about improved offensive line, I think

753
00:40:02,239 --> 00:40:03,959
Speaker 2: on the left side, and their defense will be better.

754
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:07,359
Speaker 2: They're going to get healthier. Rabill's still there. They're coming

755
00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:10,319
Speaker 2: in out with no expectations. I think this is all

756
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 2: about Tennessee and the Jags are overrated and do for

757
00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 2: some regression in many, many different aspects across the board.

758
00:40:18,400 --> 00:40:24,000
Speaker 2: And by the way, Jacksonville has two games too. Well,

759
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:25,400
Speaker 2: we'll see how it works out. But they're going to

760
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:27,040
Speaker 2: be in London two weeks in a row, and they're

761
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:28,920
Speaker 2: familiar with London, but in lon London two weeks in

762
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:32,440
Speaker 2: a row, then come home for the Colts, then a

763
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:35,359
Speaker 2: short week on the road at the Saints, then they're

764
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:39,880
Speaker 2: at the Steelers, then it's their bye, I mean, and

765
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:42,359
Speaker 2: they also get the Chiefs in week two, who get

766
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:46,799
Speaker 2: ten days to prepare for them. So and then after

767
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:48,520
Speaker 2: their bye they get the forty nine ers who are

768
00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:52,239
Speaker 2: also off of a bye. So yeah, I don't like

769
00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 2: it the way that the schedule sets up. They do

770
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:57,960
Speaker 2: they will get to face some Brookie quarterbacks early, and

771
00:40:58,040 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 2: they do get their first Monday night football game in

772
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:02,360
Speaker 2: twelve years and first sundn night football game in fifteen years.

773
00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 2: That speaks to the expectations and kind of we're selling

774
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:07,200
Speaker 2: them high. It's all about the time, yes, sorry.

775
00:41:07,120 --> 00:41:08,879
Speaker 3: Yes, oh no, like that that's kind of the key,

776
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:11,920
Speaker 3: I think, because you know there's there obviously some uncertainty

777
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:15,840
Speaker 3: with Houston in Indianapolis where but like that benefits you

778
00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:17,640
Speaker 3: if you sell the Jags, because the Jags are the

779
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:20,960
Speaker 3: only team even projected with a winning record uh for

780
00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:24,440
Speaker 3: this division in terms of win totals, and when you

781
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:26,440
Speaker 3: look at injury luck, I mean the Titans, remember they

782
00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:30,319
Speaker 3: were seven and three last year and then everything. The

783
00:41:30,440 --> 00:41:35,200
Speaker 3: Jaguars not only are is this team like they they

784
00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:37,879
Speaker 3: whiffed on a lot of draft picks or at least

785
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,640
Speaker 3: you know it appears that way on defense, where you

786
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:42,400
Speaker 3: know they could be in a lot better spot, but

787
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:46,160
Speaker 3: guys just haven't played well like Walker Lloyd hasn't played well.

788
00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:49,480
Speaker 3: Chasing was a lost pick essentially, Like there are a

789
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:51,640
Speaker 3: lot of guys that like, there's not a lot of

790
00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:56,080
Speaker 3: impact guys that you could point to on their defense

791
00:41:56,120 --> 00:42:00,200
Speaker 3: outside of Campbell and and a Lua Kon and and

792
00:42:00,680 --> 00:42:03,800
Speaker 3: Josh Allen. But you know this is a top heavy

793
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:06,919
Speaker 3: team that had some of the best injury luck.

794
00:42:07,280 --> 00:42:11,240
Speaker 2: Like yes, second luckiest in injury luck and then third

795
00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 2: luckist with quarterbacks opposing quarterbacks face and guess what now

796
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:18,080
Speaker 2: they have a first place schedule in the AFC. Last

797
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:19,759
Speaker 2: year had a joke the schedule also got lucky in

798
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:22,440
Speaker 2: one possession game. Still holes in this roster, Go ahead.

799
00:42:22,719 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I'm just saying, like, just to put it

800
00:42:24,560 --> 00:42:27,360
Speaker 3: in a context, like with that injury luckis Travis Etn

801
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:30,839
Speaker 3: played every single game, Christian Kirk every single game, Evan

802
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:34,719
Speaker 3: Ingram every single game, Trevor Lawrence every single game, like

803
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:39,200
Speaker 3: all of their key players essentially played every game. And

804
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:42,880
Speaker 3: you know this team was like clawed its way to

805
00:42:43,040 --> 00:42:44,880
Speaker 3: nine and eight. They had they were three and seven.

806
00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:47,359
Speaker 3: They had to go what like they had to win

807
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:51,399
Speaker 3: like six of their last seven games just to beat

808
00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:55,840
Speaker 3: Joshua Dobbs by four points to get into the playoffs.

809
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:58,040
Speaker 3: And yeah, and then they had what they thirty down

810
00:42:58,040 --> 00:43:01,520
Speaker 3: against the Chargers. So like, this is this Jaguar team

811
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:04,920
Speaker 3: is like like they are very fragile. Like Trevor Lawrence

812
00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:08,400
Speaker 3: is great, there's the star talent they've assembled at the

813
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:09,600
Speaker 3: skill positions.

814
00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:10,479
Speaker 2: Is great, but you don't know he's great.

815
00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:12,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you know what I mean, Like the talent,

816
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 3: the talents, but like just like that's literally Jacksonville's story.

817
00:43:16,840 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 3: They have a few players that are extremely talented and

818
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 3: very little depth, and they've been very lucky with injuries,

819
00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:30,200
Speaker 3: and like, if anything goes wrong, this could easily just

820
00:43:30,280 --> 00:43:32,520
Speaker 3: go back to being in that three and seven team

821
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:34,880
Speaker 3: that you know we were heading into their bio but

822
00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:36,960
Speaker 3: we weren't thinking twice about so yeah.

823
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the last year, think about it, their division

824
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:41,879
Speaker 2: basically just broke for them. I mean the Titans they

825
00:43:41,880 --> 00:43:44,640
Speaker 2: played dobs. Like we just said, the Titans had historically

826
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:47,160
Speaker 2: bad injury luck. You have the ghost of Matt Ryan

827
00:43:47,600 --> 00:43:50,800
Speaker 2: at quarterback for the Colts, and then you have Davis

828
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:54,520
Speaker 2: Mills like that, there's should be better quarterback play, better

829
00:43:54,600 --> 00:43:59,279
Speaker 2: injury luck for those teams across the board, And yeah,

830
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:03,600
Speaker 2: I mean, if you look that down the stretch, you

831
00:44:03,600 --> 00:44:08,160
Speaker 2: know when they beat they beat Houston and then Dobbs.

832
00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:11,000
Speaker 2: At the end of the year. They also beat Chris

833
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:13,959
Speaker 2: Streveler and the Jets. That was their last three wins.

834
00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 2: They beat the Dallas in overtime. They beat the Ravens

835
00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:20,319
Speaker 2: on a last second touchdown by one. Like, this team

836
00:44:20,360 --> 00:44:24,040
Speaker 2: got really fortunate down the stretch and it's the perfect

837
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:26,520
Speaker 2: time to sell and they weren't complete agreement there.

838
00:44:27,600 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 3: I was going to the West because you know, I think, like,

839
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:33,120
Speaker 3: like I said, you know, there's a lot of uncertainty

840
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:36,759
Speaker 3: with Houston in Indianapolis, not a ton of green I think,

841
00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:39,280
Speaker 3: and breaking down to myniche of their schedule.

842
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:40,520
Speaker 1: But I do want to.

843
00:44:40,760 --> 00:44:44,000
Speaker 3: Talk about the Chargers because I think every year it

844
00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:46,440
Speaker 3: seems like, you know, you look at the Chargers and

845
00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:50,759
Speaker 3: you say, yeah, this team, they have upside, but it

846
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:52,640
Speaker 3: just never seems to fully come together.

847
00:44:52,719 --> 00:44:54,200
Speaker 1: I think they they're kind of.

848
00:44:54,120 --> 00:44:57,520
Speaker 3: Like a like a a kind of like a similar

849
00:44:57,600 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 3: version to the Jaguars, except with a lot better defense,

850
00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:02,200
Speaker 3: like a rich version of the Jaguars. Like they're pretty

851
00:45:02,239 --> 00:45:06,080
Speaker 3: stacked at certain spots, but I think the depth falls

852
00:45:06,080 --> 00:45:09,400
Speaker 3: off quick and for some reason, they've just been getting

853
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 3: injured these last few years. So you know, what do

854
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:14,280
Speaker 3: you think of the Chargers in this you know division

855
00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:15,640
Speaker 3: that you know, you got to play.

856
00:45:15,440 --> 00:45:16,280
Speaker 1: The Chiefs twice.

857
00:45:16,840 --> 00:45:19,399
Speaker 3: The Broncos could be better, they could be terrible again,

858
00:45:20,120 --> 00:45:22,840
Speaker 3: and then you got the Raiders who could be terrible

859
00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:25,120
Speaker 3: again but maybe could be a little better too. Like

860
00:45:25,239 --> 00:45:27,279
Speaker 3: what are your thoughts on where the howest Charger team

861
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:28,840
Speaker 3: kind of stacks up in the in the division and

862
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:29,480
Speaker 3: in the AFC.

863
00:45:30,440 --> 00:45:33,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, Broncos historic like they I mean, the Ravens two

864
00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:36,719
Speaker 2: years ago the worst injury luck of all time, like

865
00:45:36,840 --> 00:45:40,480
Speaker 2: statistically average games lost the starters, but last year the

866
00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:42,400
Speaker 2: Bank the Broncos are the worst. I mean there are

867
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:45,959
Speaker 2: injury luck was horrific on both sides of the ball.

868
00:45:47,360 --> 00:45:49,600
Speaker 2: So the question is, however, I still think they're tat

869
00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:51,560
Speaker 2: rat because I just don't believe in Ross. So we'll say,

870
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:54,719
Speaker 2: I mean, I think you're getting this Peyton bump. People

871
00:45:54,760 --> 00:45:56,239
Speaker 2: think Russ is going to go back to he was.

872
00:45:56,280 --> 00:45:58,160
Speaker 2: I just don't think that he has the same juice

873
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:02,880
Speaker 2: which made him Ross. We'll see. I think that Broncos

874
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:07,800
Speaker 2: big positive regression candidate. I still think that they're overrated

875
00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:10,439
Speaker 2: because of this Peyton and Wilson factor, but we'll see

876
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:13,439
Speaker 2: if Wilson can regain some of that under Payton. They're

877
00:46:13,440 --> 00:46:18,320
Speaker 2: definitely dangerous. You're right on the Chargers. The depth is

878
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:21,160
Speaker 2: the biggest question with them. I do love the offensive

879
00:46:21,160 --> 00:46:24,520
Speaker 2: coordinator higher I think that's a huge factor, just the

880
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:27,919
Speaker 2: play calling and unleashing Herbert. I think he was really

881
00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:30,360
Speaker 2: held back by that last year. Their defense is always

882
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:33,840
Speaker 2: going to be prepared schematically, and they're due for some

883
00:46:33,880 --> 00:46:35,440
Speaker 2: injury luck on that side of the ball, but Stale

884
00:46:35,480 --> 00:46:37,279
Speaker 2: is always going to have that defense ready. Now, I

885
00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:40,520
Speaker 2: think the offense will be better prepared, better play calling.

886
00:46:40,600 --> 00:46:44,279
Speaker 2: I think that'll lead to increased efficiency and explosiveness on

887
00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:47,439
Speaker 2: that offense. The question is depth. Can they stay healthy.

888
00:46:47,440 --> 00:46:50,360
Speaker 2: They're aging and a lot of positions, and they have

889
00:46:50,400 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 2: a bye week in Week five, so can they hold

890
00:46:54,200 --> 00:46:58,120
Speaker 2: up after that the rest of the season. They get

891
00:46:58,160 --> 00:47:01,160
Speaker 2: ideal rest. I like how they're you know when they

892
00:47:01,160 --> 00:47:03,920
Speaker 2: have like long breaks or they're you know, they get

893
00:47:03,920 --> 00:47:09,320
Speaker 2: a bye week before the Cowboys at home. I like

894
00:47:09,520 --> 00:47:12,440
Speaker 2: some of the nuances of their schedule, but the depth

895
00:47:12,440 --> 00:47:15,520
Speaker 2: worries me. With an early buy. They're also at the

896
00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:17,719
Speaker 2: Chiefs on a short week when Casey has extended rest.

897
00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 2: That's I could end up deciding the division. But the

898
00:47:21,080 --> 00:47:23,080
Speaker 2: depth is the biggest concern. I show a tad bit

899
00:47:23,080 --> 00:47:25,280
Speaker 2: of value on They're over, yeah, And the only reason

900
00:47:25,320 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 2: is I show a tab bit of value on the

901
00:47:26,600 --> 00:47:29,000
Speaker 2: under on the Broncos, a tabit of value in the

902
00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:30,400
Speaker 2: under on the Raiders. I just don't like what the

903
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:33,200
Speaker 2: Raiders are doing specifically on defense. And I mean, Jimmy

904
00:47:33,200 --> 00:47:36,560
Speaker 2: g knows the system. We'll see. I actually am thinking

905
00:47:36,560 --> 00:47:41,640
Speaker 2: about going under on Kansas City under what you can get,

906
00:47:42,480 --> 00:47:46,680
Speaker 2: I think like an under twelve. I project eleven three.

907
00:47:47,080 --> 00:47:50,200
Speaker 2: I think the Chiefs got worse overall. They're gonna be

908
00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:52,600
Speaker 2: there like they're gonna be in the playoffs. They're probably

909
00:47:52,600 --> 00:47:55,759
Speaker 2: gonna win the division, but it looks like they look

910
00:47:55,800 --> 00:47:58,319
Speaker 2: like a ten to eleven team to me. I'll tell

911
00:47:58,360 --> 00:48:02,560
Speaker 2: you why. So they you know, Number one, they lose

912
00:48:02,600 --> 00:48:06,120
Speaker 2: a home game to London. They played Miami. It's not

913
00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:08,480
Speaker 2: going to be an easy game. That comes after an

914
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:12,040
Speaker 2: altitude game in Denver, and then they're flying or to Germany.

915
00:48:12,080 --> 00:48:15,080
Speaker 2: I should say, you know, then they have a bye

916
00:48:15,120 --> 00:48:17,160
Speaker 2: we then they get the Eagles at home. It's a

917
00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:21,080
Speaker 2: tough schedule, but look at the the back half of

918
00:48:21,120 --> 00:48:24,439
Speaker 2: their schedule, like they play, they go to Green Bay

919
00:48:24,560 --> 00:48:27,000
Speaker 2: in early December. Green Bay's off like a Thursday night game,

920
00:48:27,080 --> 00:48:30,319
Speaker 2: gets ten days of rest. Then they are little trappy games.

921
00:48:30,320 --> 00:48:32,480
Speaker 2: They the Bills. Next, the Bills are off of a

922
00:48:32,520 --> 00:48:35,680
Speaker 2: bye before that game. Then they're at the Pats, who

923
00:48:35,680 --> 00:48:38,000
Speaker 2: have ten days of rest before that game. They're home

924
00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:40,640
Speaker 2: against the Raiders, who also have ten ten days prepare

925
00:48:40,680 --> 00:48:43,920
Speaker 2: for that game, home against the Bengals, then at the Chargers.

926
00:48:43,960 --> 00:48:46,399
Speaker 2: Like this schedule has land minds. I think this team

927
00:48:46,440 --> 00:48:48,799
Speaker 2: knows how good they are, but I think they got

928
00:48:48,840 --> 00:48:53,480
Speaker 2: worse overall. Just a tad bit and day. You want

929
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:58,200
Speaker 2: to talk about fortunate injury wise, the Chiefs the last

930
00:48:58,239 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 2: two years have been extremely, extremely lucky when it comes

931
00:49:03,600 --> 00:49:06,920
Speaker 2: to injuries, not only themselves, but the rest of the

932
00:49:06,960 --> 00:49:12,040
Speaker 2: division talked about the Broncos talked about the Chargers. So yeah,

933
00:49:12,080 --> 00:49:16,520
Speaker 2: I mean never these things tend to even out over time.

934
00:49:17,320 --> 00:49:20,360
Speaker 2: But like you're they're gonna they're really relying with Canarios

935
00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:21,720
Speaker 2: Tony to be their number one receiver.

936
00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:23,960
Speaker 1: I don't believe that. I feel like it's gonna end up.

937
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:27,560
Speaker 1: It might be the rookie uh Rice that uh yeah,

938
00:49:27,800 --> 00:49:30,560
Speaker 1: hi Rice, Right, I think.

939
00:49:30,400 --> 00:49:32,560
Speaker 2: That that's that's still also.

940
00:49:33,200 --> 00:49:35,600
Speaker 3: I know, I'm just saying like it's it's definitely like

941
00:49:35,719 --> 00:49:38,640
Speaker 3: there is a path where somebody that's not Canarious Tony

942
00:49:40,080 --> 00:49:42,719
Speaker 3: to be that number one receiver because we notic dude, just.

943
00:49:43,080 --> 00:49:44,759
Speaker 2: You don't even need injury luck for that. That's just

944
00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:48,000
Speaker 2: that's just gonna happen. So yeah, I'm leaning Chiefs under.

945
00:49:48,040 --> 00:49:49,960
Speaker 2: I think that they're gonna end up. I wouldn't be

946
00:49:49,960 --> 00:49:51,600
Speaker 2: surprised to try to say all that they're gonna win

947
00:49:51,640 --> 00:49:52,040
Speaker 2: the division.

948
00:49:52,040 --> 00:49:52,640
Speaker 3: I think.

949
00:49:54,040 --> 00:49:57,640
Speaker 2: If they can hold up. But to me, I think

950
00:49:57,760 --> 00:50:02,839
Speaker 2: Chiefs end up ten eleven wins and then they're gonna

951
00:50:02,880 --> 00:50:06,600
Speaker 2: be a fucking bitch that take out in the playoffs

952
00:50:06,640 --> 00:50:08,440
Speaker 2: because you know they're always going to be there. But

953
00:50:08,560 --> 00:50:10,960
Speaker 2: I'm leaning under twelve. I don't it's hard for me

954
00:50:11,000 --> 00:50:12,880
Speaker 2: to see this team winning thirteen games.

955
00:50:13,200 --> 00:50:14,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I get it.

956
00:50:14,760 --> 00:50:18,640
Speaker 3: Thirteen like thirteen and is like kind of like my favorite.

957
00:50:18,719 --> 00:50:21,160
Speaker 3: Like I mean, when we talk about the Vikings, they'll

958
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:25,000
Speaker 3: get into thirteen when teams. But it's just tough with

959
00:50:25,040 --> 00:50:27,640
Speaker 3: the Chiefs because like the front half of their schedule.

960
00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:30,640
Speaker 3: I mean they could also start the year like now,

961
00:50:30,680 --> 00:50:32,640
Speaker 3: I to know, you know, it's not out of the

962
00:50:32,719 --> 00:50:37,640
Speaker 3: question either. So it's tough for me to fade the Chiefs.

963
00:50:37,640 --> 00:50:40,360
Speaker 3: I feel like the best way to profit off the

964
00:50:40,440 --> 00:50:42,879
Speaker 3: Chiefs is kind of and will talk about this every

965
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:45,480
Speaker 3: week on the pot, is like you just fade them

966
00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:48,360
Speaker 3: when they're more like a favorite by more than a

967
00:50:48,360 --> 00:50:51,360
Speaker 3: field goal and they'll end up covering. They'll win the game,

968
00:50:51,880 --> 00:50:54,120
Speaker 3: but they won't cover, and then in that you know

969
00:50:54,160 --> 00:50:56,920
Speaker 3: that doesn't really help your win total, but you know,

970
00:50:56,960 --> 00:50:58,839
Speaker 3: it's just kind of the week. It's kind of been

971
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:01,680
Speaker 3: the way to to bet the Chiefs. They're ten and

972
00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:04,719
Speaker 3: twenty eight when favored by more than ten or twenty

973
00:51:04,719 --> 00:51:08,000
Speaker 3: eight against the spread when favored by more than a

974
00:51:08,040 --> 00:51:13,719
Speaker 3: field goal dating back to November of twenty twenty, so

975
00:51:13,800 --> 00:51:16,960
Speaker 3: like that's kind of, you know, just their track are

976
00:51:16,960 --> 00:51:19,160
Speaker 3: going to just so good at exceeding these win totals

977
00:51:19,160 --> 00:51:21,719
Speaker 3: with Andy Reid, and you know, it's like I just

978
00:51:21,719 --> 00:51:24,920
Speaker 3: don't see, like it doesn't like hold me, even if

979
00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:28,560
Speaker 3: I might show like a couple of decimal points of undervalue,

980
00:51:28,600 --> 00:51:31,759
Speaker 3: Like it's just not really something I want to put

981
00:51:31,760 --> 00:51:34,279
Speaker 3: my money into for a bunch of months. So like that,

982
00:51:34,560 --> 00:51:36,160
Speaker 3: I just rather about the Chiefs like week to week

983
00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:37,120
Speaker 3: and fade them now where.

984
00:51:37,880 --> 00:51:40,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I've spent one quick down on the Raiders

985
00:51:40,040 --> 00:51:43,040
Speaker 2: for the NFC. Look that, I mean they start two

986
00:51:43,080 --> 00:51:45,279
Speaker 2: road games at the Broncos, at the Bills, and they're

987
00:51:45,280 --> 00:51:48,480
Speaker 2: home against the Steelers and at the Chargers. Like if

988
00:51:48,480 --> 00:51:51,320
Speaker 2: they start zing four, it's over and it's going to

989
00:51:51,360 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 2: get ugly because listen to their end. There's from October

990
00:51:54,680 --> 00:51:58,560
Speaker 2: twenty ninth on at the Lions home against the Giants

991
00:51:58,600 --> 00:52:03,200
Speaker 2: and Jets at the Dolphins, home against the Chiefs, home

992
00:52:03,239 --> 00:52:06,040
Speaker 2: against the Vikings, home against the Chargers, at the Chiefs

993
00:52:07,200 --> 00:52:09,200
Speaker 2: at the Colts, which is really your only break that's

994
00:52:09,239 --> 00:52:12,719
Speaker 2: on a short week, and then home against the Broncos.

995
00:52:12,719 --> 00:52:15,440
Speaker 2: Like there's no break there at the end of the season,

996
00:52:15,480 --> 00:52:18,319
Speaker 2: and their beginning is tough. I don't trust their d

997
00:52:18,840 --> 00:52:20,600
Speaker 2: I would not go over on the Raiders. I'm not

998
00:52:20,640 --> 00:52:26,080
Speaker 2: a believer any of their futures are upside. But yeah,

999
00:52:26,120 --> 00:52:27,759
Speaker 2: we'll see if I end up firing on the Chiefs

1000
00:52:27,840 --> 00:52:29,520
Speaker 2: under but it might be right. It might just they're

1001
00:52:29,520 --> 00:52:30,399
Speaker 2: a pretty predictable week.

1002
00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:33,319
Speaker 3: The week yeah, I mean, like, you know, like because

1003
00:52:33,560 --> 00:52:36,120
Speaker 3: that's the other thing about you know, we're trying to

1004
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:37,960
Speaker 3: talk to these teams and give everybody kind of the

1005
00:52:38,280 --> 00:52:40,319
Speaker 3: you know, just kind of the outlooks on these teams

1006
00:52:40,360 --> 00:52:42,120
Speaker 3: because you know, I think we're all interested in that

1007
00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:43,000
Speaker 3: as football fans.

1008
00:52:43,040 --> 00:52:45,720
Speaker 1: But like there's also just the actual.

1009
00:52:45,440 --> 00:52:47,880
Speaker 3: Betting angle of like, Okay, there has to be like

1010
00:52:47,880 --> 00:52:50,360
Speaker 3: an incentive to tie up your money and like an

1011
00:52:50,440 --> 00:52:53,319
Speaker 3: NFL future, especially in May, and I like betting on

1012
00:52:53,320 --> 00:52:55,880
Speaker 3: a Chief betting against the Chiefs, is that really is

1013
00:52:55,920 --> 00:52:59,160
Speaker 3: that really the best use to me? I feel like

1014
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:01,880
Speaker 3: their predictably outweighs that and just gives you a different

1015
00:53:01,880 --> 00:53:02,720
Speaker 3: way to invest.

1016
00:53:02,760 --> 00:53:06,320
Speaker 1: But I'm totally with you on the Raiders.

1017
00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:10,160
Speaker 3: I think this is a team that they've just they

1018
00:53:10,280 --> 00:53:13,880
Speaker 3: put their fan base through terrible defense after terrible defense

1019
00:53:14,000 --> 00:53:16,560
Speaker 3: after terrible defense. And when I look up this year,

1020
00:53:17,239 --> 00:53:18,680
Speaker 3: I hate all the moves that they made in the

1021
00:53:18,719 --> 00:53:20,840
Speaker 3: offseason on defense. All the guys they signed were not

1022
00:53:20,880 --> 00:53:24,040
Speaker 3: really upgrades on guys that they've lost, and you know,

1023
00:53:24,040 --> 00:53:25,640
Speaker 3: it's just.

1024
00:53:24,960 --> 00:53:27,280
Speaker 1: Just be another version of that terrible defense.

1025
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:29,200
Speaker 3: So I mean, that helps the Chargers, that helps the

1026
00:53:29,239 --> 00:53:33,560
Speaker 3: Chiefs obviously, That could help the Broncos if they're competent,

1027
00:53:34,320 --> 00:53:37,680
Speaker 3: a newly competent with with Peyton. So yeah, Raiders are

1028
00:53:38,239 --> 00:53:40,080
Speaker 3: it's not looking it's not looking up for them.

1029
00:53:40,120 --> 00:53:40,839
Speaker 1: And I don't even know.

1030
00:53:41,360 --> 00:53:44,560
Speaker 3: I don't know like exactly what McDaniels really brings at

1031
00:53:44,560 --> 00:53:47,400
Speaker 3: this point. Like I know, he's very well respected as

1032
00:53:47,400 --> 00:53:51,239
Speaker 3: an offensive mind, and even some of the decisions and

1033
00:53:51,480 --> 00:53:53,200
Speaker 3: some of the ways he's running his offense, like I

1034
00:53:53,280 --> 00:53:55,880
Speaker 3: you know, it's I don't know if he's kind of

1035
00:53:55,880 --> 00:53:59,600
Speaker 3: built to win in this this NFL, especially going up

1036
00:53:59,600 --> 00:54:01,279
Speaker 3: against the Indus face and say get Raiders of the

1037
00:54:01,280 --> 00:54:04,400
Speaker 3: Seed for me as well. All right, So that wraps

1038
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:09,400
Speaker 3: it up for our AFC schedule release podcast. This is

1039
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:13,520
Speaker 3: the Action Network podcast presented by Fandel So we'll be

1040
00:54:13,600 --> 00:54:18,680
Speaker 3: back Monday with our NFC episode as well, same format,

1041
00:54:19,160 --> 00:54:22,040
Speaker 3: spend an hour just talking through each of these teams,

1042
00:54:22,080 --> 00:54:25,759
Speaker 3: the schedules, the wind tos, whatever might be relevant to

1043
00:54:25,840 --> 00:54:29,680
Speaker 3: use a better So thank you everybody for listening. Of course,

1044
00:54:29,719 --> 00:54:32,080
Speaker 3: you can find Stucky on Twitter at Stucky too. You

1045
00:54:32,120 --> 00:54:34,960
Speaker 3: can find me at Chris Raybond. You can find us

1046
00:54:35,000 --> 00:54:38,160
Speaker 3: at those same handles in the free award winning Action

1047
00:54:38,560 --> 00:54:40,640
Speaker 3: Network app till next time.

1048
00:54:40,800 --> 00:54:41,800
Speaker 1: Let's get this money.

1049
00:54:42,400 --> 00:54:53,719
Speaker 3: Looko Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you

1050
00:54:53,920 --> 00:54:56,399
Speaker 3: or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help

1051
00:54:56,480 --> 00:54:58,960
Speaker 3: Us available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred

1052
00:54:59,000 --> 00:54:59,440
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