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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Welcome back into the Action Network podcast. Your host Brendan Glasheen,

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Speaker 2: joined by Alex Keeney. He is our news expert, our

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Speaker 2: news guest, the founder of Star Spangled Gamblers, host of

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Speaker 2: their popular podcast, It's become the leading source of information

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Speaker 2: about political prediction markets. This is part two of our

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Speaker 2: Gambling on the News episode. Be sure to check out

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Speaker 2: Part one that covers the nuts and bolts the how

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Speaker 2: toos in terms of how to invest in the world

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Speaker 2: of news and political markets. Coming up in this episode,

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Speaker 2: we dive into strategy, how to profit in the world

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Speaker 2: of political investing and trading, and we also get to

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Speaker 2: tips and picks from markets currently being offered. We will

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Speaker 2: cover some good places to get information. If you enjoyed

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Speaker 2: Part one, we're looking forward to having you here in

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Speaker 2: part two. So we discussed the who, the what, the

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Speaker 2: how in that first episode, Alex, as we move on

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Speaker 2: to strategy, tactics best practices for those looking to start

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Speaker 2: investing in politics and world events. What are the strategies

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Speaker 2: that successful traders use within predictive marketplaces?

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Speaker 1: Are we talking about people who are successful traders or

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Speaker 1: what you can just do right now today? Get your

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Speaker 1: feet wet, get your hands dirty, and just not worry

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Speaker 1: about losing your whole bank roll.

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Speaker 2: How about somewhere in the middle of that?

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Speaker 1: All right? Well, I mean, look we set it on

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Speaker 1: part one, right, like a successful trader might be a partisan,

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Speaker 1: but certainly doesn't have his partisan blinders on. You know,

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Speaker 1: there's an element of curiosity and openness to new information.

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Speaker 1: You know, you got to be that guy. You can't

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Speaker 1: be the guy who only bets the over on Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump or Bernie Sanders. You got to be the guy

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Speaker 1: who's looking for an advantage. This is universal for betters. Right.

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Speaker 2: What if you are someone though that is more you're

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Speaker 2: you're a little more hesitant. I guess going into it,

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Speaker 2: what would be the strategy for someone who's really really

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Speaker 2: new and wants to kind of take it slow?

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Speaker 1: All right? All right, I got a couple like no

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Speaker 1: Brainer plays for you here. Okay, These aren't bets, these

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Speaker 1: are just like ways to approach they got it good,

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Speaker 1: all right? Whoever? Like the CULTI candidate in politics is

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Speaker 1: I don't care if it's Donald Trump, I don't care

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Speaker 1: if it's Bernie Sanders, I don't care if it's AOC.

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Speaker 1: They always bring like a wagon train of dumb money

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Speaker 1: into betting markets. So usually if you just bet against

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Speaker 1: those culty candidates, you're gonna get a chance to exit

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Speaker 1: the market profitably. You're gonna get that chance to see

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Speaker 1: your stock rise, to take your money and go do

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Speaker 1: something else with it, and to have more of it.

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Speaker 1: So I think that that's always a good strategy. Now,

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Speaker 1: we talked about in part one that these markets, these

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Speaker 1: betting markets or politics, function like stock markets. Right, So

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Speaker 1: when you look at a stock market, what do you see.

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Speaker 1: You see a chart. You see that Tesla went up

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Speaker 1: this day because Elon said that, and it went down

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Speaker 1: that day because he got high with Joe Rogan. Okay, well,

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Speaker 1: these political betting exchangers also have charts, and what you'll

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Speaker 1: find is that most bets trade within a window, just

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Speaker 1: like stocks. Donald Trump to be president will usually be

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Speaker 1: between thirty five and forty cents. So you just put

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Speaker 1: in the buy order for thirty five cents, you buy

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Speaker 1: the shares, you put in the cell order for forty cents.

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Speaker 1: You don't need to know who the next president is.

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Speaker 1: You just need to know what betting markets think the

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Speaker 1: highest and lowest chance for the near future is going

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Speaker 1: to be you know, there's just like, there's lots of

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Speaker 1: stuff like this. Nothing. Nothing in politics is always the

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Speaker 1: most likely outcome. Traders see bets like will the China

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Speaker 1: Competition whatever they're calling it bill pass the Senate, They

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Speaker 1: start writing the story in their head. Chuck Schumer loves

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Speaker 1: this bill, Joe Biden likes this bill. They start creating

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Speaker 1: this story for why things are going to happen. Most

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Speaker 1: of the time they're not going to happen. Be biased

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Speaker 1: towards things not happening. There's innumerable strategies to get a

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Speaker 1: kind of low risk way to teach yourself how to

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Speaker 1: play in these markets.

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Speaker 2: Good examples. As a reminder, in addition to your own website,

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Speaker 2: Star Spangled Gamblers, you have some recommendations for a couple

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Speaker 2: of pretty reliable news outlets. As it's related to again,

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Speaker 2: we're talking outlets to make good investments here to be

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Speaker 2: very clear on that, why don't you talk to us

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Speaker 2: about some of those.

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Speaker 1: Well, you can't really go wrong. I mean, there's ways

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Speaker 1: you can go more right. You read the stuff that

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Speaker 1: lobbyists in Washington read. Everyone will send you their newsletter.

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Speaker 1: Read punch Bowl, read Axios, read Politico. You know these

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Speaker 1: are people. All they do is cover gossip in Washington,

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Speaker 1: and that's what you need. You need the gossip. Now,

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Speaker 1: if that's too boring for you and you want to

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Speaker 1: like hate, watch Rachel Maddow or get your partisan jolly's

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Speaker 1: off watching Sean Hannity or whatever it is, Okay, that's

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Speaker 1: still an opportunity because you can learn how people think.

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Speaker 1: And once you understand how those people think, you can

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Speaker 1: bet against them and you can take their money. So

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Speaker 1: no effort, no amount of effort, will go unrewarded. It's

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Speaker 1: just that you got to do the work.

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Speaker 2: Okay, So we've got outlets. As far as recommendations go, Now,

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Speaker 2: how should the casual person now getting involved in these markets?

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Speaker 2: How should they interpret and react to news they see.

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Speaker 1: As minimally as possible. Would be probably consistent in sports

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Speaker 1: that people always overreact to an injury or a weather

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Speaker 1: forecast or something like that. Markets love to panic, and

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Speaker 1: you know, I've been doing it for a couple of

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Speaker 1: years now and it's still is. You know, when you

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Speaker 1: see your share price is dropping, when you see the

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Speaker 1: portfolio value of yours a go from five to ten

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Speaker 1: grand to four or seven grand because of one bad

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Speaker 1: news cycle that's hard to stomach. But more often than not,

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Speaker 1: politics in America, if you remember your history classes, the

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Speaker 1: government is set up to basically it's impossible to do

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Speaker 1: anything in our government, which means that most stories are

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Speaker 1: overplayed like that thing is not going to happen because

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Speaker 1: power is so spread out. So just remember that, don't

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Speaker 1: panic when you lose money, and sometimes take the profits

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Speaker 1: when you you know, when you see that quick gain.

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Speaker 2: Let's get into picks with Alex Keeney. By the way,

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Speaker 2: you can find him on Twitter at keen Dog. We'll

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Speaker 2: be sure to plug that again before we wrap up.

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Speaker 2: So going in the order we have right, we've got

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Speaker 2: an understanding of where to get the news. Now folks

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Speaker 2: are getting into the marketplace. What are some as I said,

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Speaker 2: you know, we're getting the picks now, the good stuff.

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Speaker 2: What direction would you take people in now as it

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Speaker 2: pertains to going into the market.

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Speaker 1: Well, I told you that I'm always biased against the

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Speaker 1: government doing anything, right confirmed, Here's the one thing I

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Speaker 1: am not biased against the government doing, which is stopping

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Speaker 1: its tax collection. So it is a great idea, for example,

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Speaker 1: to bet against. You can do this on Calshi, which

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Speaker 1: we talked about in the last episode to bet against

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Speaker 1: the government putting a gas tax holiday in place. Gas

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Speaker 1: races are high, but the government wants your money. They

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Speaker 1: are not giving you a tax break on your gas.

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Speaker 1: Daylight savings time. What does some Democrat who is in

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Speaker 1: deep deep do do this election's that is the trend

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Speaker 1: right now? What does he or she want to do

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Speaker 1: less than explain to some random person on a campaign

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Speaker 1: stop why daylight savings time ended? It was a very

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Speaker 1: weird Twitter cycle. It's not happening. Okay, this is another

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Speaker 1: easy thing to bet against. No daylight savings time changing.

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Speaker 1: Can I give you a DJN pick now?

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Speaker 2: Of course?

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Speaker 1: All right, you remember you remember doctor Fauci, right, Anthony Fauci,

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Speaker 1: COVID COVID guy, yes, right now for twenty five cents.

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Speaker 1: So if you remember minimum value zero sense, if you win,

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Speaker 1: your shares worth a dollar. Okay, so like four to

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Speaker 1: one payout here that Anthony Fauci will leave his job

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Speaker 1: before the end of the year. I think that what's

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Speaker 1: going to happen is the Republicans are going to win

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Speaker 1: the House convincingly. They are more likely than not going

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Speaker 1: to win the Senate, and doctor Fauci is not going

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Speaker 1: to want to answer subpoenas from like Diamond and Silk

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Speaker 1: or whoever it is that's running the oversight committees on

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Speaker 1: the Hill. So I think Fauci is going to get

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Speaker 1: out of town. I think that's a great value by it.

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Speaker 1: Twenty five cents that Fauci says. You know what, I'm eighty, however,

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Speaker 1: many years old. I've had a long career. I supervised

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Speaker 1: the crisis of a century. Maybe this is a good

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Speaker 1: time to chill. I can keep going. I don't want

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Speaker 1: to put everyone to sleep, though, I mean we're talking

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Speaker 1: about we.

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Speaker 2: Want you to keep going. How do you top that

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Speaker 2: last one? But what else you got for us?

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Speaker 1: Okay, great State of Georgia, Atlanta braves, Atlanta Falcons. There

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Speaker 1: is a bet right now and predicted will Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: be criminally indicted in the State of Georgia. Well, guess

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Speaker 1: what if you read the rules? Always read the rules. Okay,

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Speaker 1: the panel that is examining Trump does not have the

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Speaker 1: legal authority to issue a criminal indictment. I will take

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Speaker 1: that note every single day. This is just a fact

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Speaker 1: in political gambling, you can get the answer before the

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Speaker 1: game is even played. So take advantage of that. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden. People love to hate the president. This is America.

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Speaker 1: What do people like doing more than complaining about the president?

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Speaker 1: Maybe taking selfies on Instagram? That's it. Okay, still have

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Speaker 1: the opportunity right now to get a three to one

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Speaker 1: payout that Joe Biden runs for president and is then

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four. Okay, the odds are lower on

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden being the next president than Donald Trump and

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Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis on the Republican side. That is shit crazy,

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Speaker 1: Take those odds. These are not things that you need

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Speaker 1: to be a genius to discover. Like, you don't have

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Speaker 1: to be one of Barack Obama's cousins to win on

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Speaker 1: these lines.

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Speaker 2: Right, Well, well said, I think we got the gist

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Speaker 2: for those looking to take the big swings, which those

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Speaker 2: are you know, those are compelling. I mean, those are

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Speaker 2: some compelling picks to take a big swing and they

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Speaker 2: want to just buy and hold for the biggest payout later.

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Speaker 2: What are some examples of signals versus examples of noise?

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Speaker 1: Okay, I'm gonna tell you my favorite one. Politics is

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Speaker 1: pretty shallow, right, Like I'm actually sitting in Washington, DC

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Speaker 1: right now. They say it's Hollywood for ugly people. I

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Speaker 1: like to look at the physical appearance of senators and

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Speaker 1: cabinet members, and that's going to tell me a lot

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Speaker 1: about what they're thinking. So I put a healthy amount

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Speaker 1: of money on Mike Pompeo. I don't know if you

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Speaker 1: remember him. He was the secretary of State for Trump.

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Speaker 1: He looks a little bit like the penguin from Batman. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Pompeio lost like one hundred pounds. That tells me he

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Speaker 1: is running for president in twenty twenty four. So I

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Speaker 1: went out and bought for cent five cent shares that

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Speaker 1: Pompeio would be the Republican nominee. I fully expect him

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Speaker 1: to declare, and I think that my five cent shares

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Speaker 1: will be worth at least seven or eight cents when

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Speaker 1: that happens. So I'm sort of creating a story here

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Speaker 1: based on his physical appearance that potentially can get me,

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Speaker 1: you know, double my money if he just even gets

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Speaker 1: into the race. So be shallow, because politicians are look

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Speaker 1: at how they appear. Look at Kirsten Cinema's body language

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Speaker 1: when she walks down to the Senate FLOORID to vote,

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Speaker 1: and you don't know, you know, fifty to fifty senator.

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Speaker 1: You never know what she's going to do. Guess what

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Speaker 1: if she's in a bad mood, she's voting against her

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Speaker 1: own party. Body language superficial. These are important things.

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Speaker 2: For that is that is literally a signal like that

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Speaker 2: is the example of a signal that signaled you the

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Speaker 2: loss of weight, right.

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Speaker 1: Right, It's very important. It's very important. Bill Cassidy. You

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Speaker 1: know Bill Cassidy's hairs He's another moderate senator from Louisiana.

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Speaker 1: Look at his haircut. If it's if it's high and tight,

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Speaker 1: he's gonna be pissing someone off today. You gotta be careful.

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Speaker 1: It is as ridiculous as it sounds.

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Speaker 2: Brendan, I know I'm trying to keep a serious face,

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Speaker 2: but I'm like, oh, this is where this is going.

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Speaker 2: How about examples of noise.

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Speaker 1: You know, the people that you see on Fox News

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Speaker 1: and CNN are not the people who have power, so

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Speaker 1: you can usually tune out what they have to say.

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Speaker 1: They're not really telling you the direction the country's going in.

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Speaker 1: They're sort of telling you the direction that like spammy

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Speaker 1: fundraising emails to easily doe donors are going in. So

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Speaker 1: just if they're on Fox News every night if they're

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Speaker 1: on CNN and every night they're not the person you

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Speaker 1: need to be paying attention to. You need to figure

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Speaker 1: out the person who really does have power.

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Speaker 2: Makes sense. I figured that was the angle. You would

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Speaker 2: take something along those lines, contrading alex and these markets

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Speaker 2: make you feel better about the world of politics or smarter,

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Speaker 2: less angry.

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Speaker 1: What are your thoughts there on the tree angle? I mean,

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Speaker 1: it makes me feel better about politics. I think I

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Speaker 1: think that a lot of like a lot of frustration

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Speaker 1: that people have about the world is that we live

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Speaker 1: in this weird era where there's like too much information

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Speaker 1: and people don't know what to do with it. You

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Speaker 1: can't be throwing thousands of dollars around if you don't

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Speaker 1: really understand what's going on. And when you really understand

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Speaker 1: what's going on, when you really follow these senators or

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Speaker 1: presidents or you know, voters and random parts of the country,

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Speaker 1: you realize that everyone's like trying to do their best,

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Speaker 1: and they have different ideas about what their best is.

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Speaker 1: But you know, the people at least have their hearts

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Speaker 1: in the right place. So I love it and it's fun.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you make friends doing this, You make good trades,

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Speaker 1: make a name for yourself, meet new people. I think

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Speaker 1: it's actually very fulfilling.

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Speaker 2: Okay, before we let you go? Great stuff. Both in

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Speaker 2: both episodes are Part one and Part two of Gambling

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Speaker 2: on the News. Any final thoughts that you'd like to share,

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Speaker 2: anything else that we did not get to that you'd

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Speaker 2: like to share before we.

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Speaker 1: Let you go? Any Like I said, any amount of

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Speaker 1: work you do what we rewarded at Star Spangled Gamblers.

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Speaker 1: We do a lot of that work for you. It's

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Speaker 1: where most of the highest profile, most profitable pros are

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Speaker 1: documenting their trades and their reasoning. But just you know, start,

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Speaker 1: you know, start, and if you have the discipline to

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Speaker 1: read the news in the morning, if you have the

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Speaker 1: curiosity to want to know what's going on in politics,

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Speaker 1: the chances are you have the ability to get an

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Speaker 1: edge and probably already have an edge in a marketplace

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Speaker 1: that's let's face it, mostly partisan douchebags who are just

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Speaker 1: batting their feelings, so you know, take their money. That's

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Speaker 1: that's what I would say.

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Speaker 2: Alex Keeney, founder of Star Spangled Gamblers, a host of

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Speaker 2: their popular podcast, one of the leading sources of informations.

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Speaker 2: He just said of political prediction markets. This was awesome.

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Speaker 2: This is This was great stuff in terms of giving

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Speaker 2: folks that might just be sports doorks and understanding as

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Speaker 2: to how they can maybe get involved in like you said,

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Speaker 2: you said it, well there you got to start somewhere right.

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Speaker 2: Good stuff, man, This was a lot of fun. Thanks

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Speaker 2: for coming on, Thanks for having me. Okay, that's going

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Speaker 2: to do it again. We encourage you to check out

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Speaker 2: part one of the pod, Gambling on the News here

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Speaker 2: on the Action Network Podcast. Part one of the episode

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Speaker 2: Gambling on the News. It gives you kind of the

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Speaker 2: nuts and bolts of how to invest and then we

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Speaker 2: got to some good stuff here in episode two coming

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Speaker 2: up right here this week on the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: We've got a special episode later this week covering the

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Speaker 2: world of sportsbook promos, in addition to our usual UFC

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Speaker 2: pod on Friday and then later this summer, be on

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Speaker 2: the lookout for our special Experts Guide series. Is our

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Speaker 2: stable of Action Network experts join new Action host Dane

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Speaker 2: Martinez for a series of episodes outlining how expert betters

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Speaker 2: gamble on their favorite sports for Alex Kney, Brendan Glasheen.

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Speaker 2: Thanks so much everybody for tuning in We hope you

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Speaker 2: learned something here on these last two these last two

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Speaker 2: episodes here in the Action Network podcast. We'll talk to

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Speaker 2: you again very soon.