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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, this is the Betting pros PGA Podcast. I'm

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Speaker 1: Pat fitz Morris. Join us always by my tag team

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Speaker 1: partner Bau mcbrair.

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Speaker 2: We are here to.

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Speaker 1: Preview this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational from a betting perspective.

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Speaker 1: This is actually a two tournament week on the PGA Tour,

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Speaker 1: so we'll try to sneak in a quick word about

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Speaker 1: the Puerto Rico Open near the end.

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Speaker 2: Of the show.

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Speaker 1: Bo and I will also recap the Cognizant Classic, which

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Speaker 1: didn't finish until Monday morning due to a first final

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Speaker 1: round weather delay. And what do you know, for a

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Speaker 1: second straight week, at least one of us had the

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Speaker 1: tournament winner on our betting card.

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Speaker 2: More on that in just a moment.

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Speaker 1: The Betting pros PGA Podcast is sponsored by Underdog.

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Speaker 2: Fantasy.

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Speaker 1: Fantasy football enthusiasts know that Underdog is the place to

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Speaker 1: go for best ball fantasy football contest, but you might

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Speaker 1: not have known that Underdog also has golf contests. Sign

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Speaker 1: up for Underdog if you haven't already with the promo

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Speaker 1: b P Golf to get your first deposit matched up

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Speaker 1: to one hundred dollars.

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Speaker 2: Plus there's a special pick.

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Speaker 1: Available for you in the lobby more on Underdog in

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Speaker 1: its golf contests. Shortly, bo, we spent a lot of

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Speaker 1: time on last week's show talking about what a difficult

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Speaker 1: course PGA National can be. Then we got a tournament

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Speaker 1: with very little wind after the first round and some

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Speaker 1: wets highly receptive greens, so the scores were a lot

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Speaker 1: lower than we could have predicted. Austin Ekrot not to

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Speaker 1: be confused with NFL running back Austin Eckler. He finished

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Speaker 1: at seventeen under par to win by three shots over

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Speaker 1: Eric van Ruyin and Minwu Lee. Echro shot in opening

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Speaker 1: round sixty five, which was one off the lead, then

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Speaker 1: followed it up with rounds of sixty seven, sixty eight,

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Speaker 1: and sixty seven to.

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Speaker 2: Outlast the field.

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Speaker 1: Ekrot's final round got off to a late start on

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Speaker 1: a late start on Sunday due to that aforementioned weather delay,

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Speaker 1: you need to play more than half his final round

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Speaker 1: on Monday, but by the time he teed off on

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Speaker 1: Monday morning bow he had a pretty clear path to

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Speaker 1: victory since the other contenders were behind him and were

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Speaker 1: either done or close to being done with their final rounds,

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Speaker 1: and Ekrote was presented with calm conditions and soft green

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Speaker 1: soaked greens. So Van Ruyan tored start to his final

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Speaker 1: round birdie's on seven of his first eight holes, but

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Speaker 1: he just had too much ground to make up. Even

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Speaker 1: with the final round sixty three. I had Ekrote on

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Speaker 1: my betting card at ninety to one. I thought his driving,

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Speaker 1: accuray accuracy, and his solid middle and long iron play

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Speaker 1: would be a good fit for PGA National. That turned

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Speaker 1: out to be the case, even if the course was

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Speaker 1: playing a little bit easier than usual. Any closing thoughts

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Speaker 1: on the Cognizant Classic bow and did you piggyback me

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Speaker 1: at all on Austin Ekrout.

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Speaker 3: I didn't piggyback him on the betting slips, but he

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Speaker 3: was one of my highest exposure players in my dear

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Speaker 3: fest playerpool, which to great effect made it a profitable week.

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Speaker 3: Along with a couple other guys like Rory McElroy, did

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Speaker 3: pretty well for his price. He wasn't perfect, but he

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Speaker 3: was part of a good lineup. And then of course

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Speaker 3: I had my gut Chris Kirkin there with a solid

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Speaker 3: finish and a really good final round just the just

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Speaker 3: the overall playerpool was strong with both of our picks combined.

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Speaker 3: You can overlap a lot of these plays between betting

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Speaker 3: cards and DFS play. That was a good one, and

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Speaker 3: I wasn't on him as that sort of player until

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Speaker 3: you mentioned his name last week and I dove into

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Speaker 3: it deeper and decided I was going to make it

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Speaker 3: a thing. Is I didn't really go over exposed to anybody,

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Speaker 3: which helped me in the end because Eric Cole is

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Speaker 3: one of my favorite guys, and he completely crapped his

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Speaker 3: pants and missed the cut, So it was it was

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Speaker 3: good that I limited exposure and put my top exposure

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Speaker 3: on guys like that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Eric hole rough round.

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Speaker 1: I would not have expected him to be dead last

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Speaker 1: in the field through what not just the first day,

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Speaker 1: maybe the first two days.

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Speaker 2: Spectacles bad.

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Speaker 1: One of the other highlights these spectaculars Thomas Dietree meltdown

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Speaker 1: on I forget what hole that was on, but uh,

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Speaker 1: four putting from was it four putting or five putting

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Speaker 1: from five putting?

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Speaker 3: It was a six putt overall, but his first one

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Speaker 3: was from more than fifty feet away, But he's first

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Speaker 3: putt was within five feet and he five putted from

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Speaker 3: five feet, so a six putt total and I've never

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Speaker 3: even five putted in my life, and I've golfed a lot.

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Speaker 3: I've four putted plenty of times. Of course, everybody's three

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Speaker 3: putted and it drives them crazy, especially when they're on

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Speaker 3: the green and two on a par five and he

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Speaker 3: three putt for par I've four putted for bogie on

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Speaker 3: a par five before. I've never five putted, let alone

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Speaker 3: six putt it.

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Speaker 4: And this is a tour player in my.

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Speaker 3: Mind, because once he lipped out the second one, he

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Speaker 3: was just rage tapping and it wouldn't go down.

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Speaker 1: Oh, it was comical. There were some nonchalant efforts on

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Speaker 1: those pots. And you do that in a PGA Tour

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Speaker 1: event and you can set yourself, plus you make some

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Speaker 1: highlight reels that you don't want to make. So well,

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Speaker 1: let's turn our attention to the Arnold Palmer Invitational. But first,

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Speaker 1: our friends at Underdog Fantasy are letting you make picks

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Speaker 1: on your favorite golfers all season long. Just pick higher

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Speaker 1: or lower one selected stats for two to five golfers

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Speaker 1: and you can win up to twenty times your money

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Speaker 1: in a single day. You can also make rivals picks, choosing,

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Speaker 1: for example, which of two golfers will shoot a better

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Speaker 1: score in a round. Golf picks can be combined with

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Speaker 1: player stats from other sports too. Go sign up an

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Speaker 2: In the lobby. All Right, the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

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Speaker 1: As always, they will play this event at bay Hill

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Speaker 1: in Orlando, Florida, a par seventy two course that plays

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Speaker 1: two seven thousand, four hundred and sixty six yards much

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Speaker 1: like last week's COURSEPGA National. Bayhill is one of the

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Speaker 1: tougher tracks on the tour. Water comes into play on

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Speaker 1: half the holes. There's a lot of sand, and Bayhill

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Speaker 1: features some fast permuda greens. The key to playing Bayhill

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Speaker 1: well might be surviving the par threes bo The shortest

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Speaker 1: of bay Hill's par threes measures one hundred and ninety

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Speaker 1: nine yards, and the other three are all two hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifteen yards or longer. The longest is number two,

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Speaker 1: which measures two hundred and thirty one yards, and the

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Speaker 1: seventeenth kind of an iconic hall two hundred and twenty

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Speaker 1: one yards with the greens surrounded by sand and water.

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Speaker 1: I think if you gave the pros a shot of

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Speaker 1: sodium pentathal, they would tell you they would be delighted

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Speaker 1: to play the par threes at even par this week.

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Speaker 1: Most of the par fives at Bayhill are on the

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Speaker 1: longer side two Number seventeen is only five hundred and

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Speaker 1: eleven yards, but there's water short left and right of

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Speaker 1: the green. The other par fives i'll check in, yeah, exactly,

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Speaker 1: go long and you're fine. Just a few bunkers, you know.

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Speaker 1: The other par fives i'll check in at five hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty five yards are longer and number four is

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Speaker 1: five hundred and ninety yards. I check the weather forecast

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Speaker 1: bo mostly dry Thursday, Friday and Saturday, chance rain Sunday morning,

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Speaker 1: just as we saw this past week. Wins of less

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Speaker 1: than ten miles per hour on Thursday and Friday, but

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Speaker 1: the wind picks up a little on the weekend. For

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Speaker 1: the guys who make the cuts, which in this event

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Speaker 1: is most of the field, around fourteen miles per hour

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Speaker 1: Saturday and Sunday. So I just mentioned a lot of

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Speaker 1: guys making the cut. This is a signature event, so

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Speaker 1: it's going to be a strong sixty nine player field

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Speaker 1: would have been seventy, but Tony Fenow is electing.

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Speaker 5: Not the and.

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Speaker 1: Top fifty plus ties make the cut, so the defending

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Speaker 1: champion is both do you want to shout out your

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Speaker 1: fellow Northern California guy.

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Speaker 3: Not just my fellow norcout guy. But I played against

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Speaker 3: his older brother in high school and lost, and he,

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Speaker 3: Kurt kitty Yama, of course from Chico, California, was in

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Speaker 3: his high school is in the same league as our

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Speaker 3: high school. So I competed against his brother, and his

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Speaker 3: parents would follow him at our tournaments and sometimes young

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Speaker 3: Kurt would be with them. And the story goes is

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Speaker 3: after one of our rounds where Daniel Kittyama shot seventy

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Speaker 3: in the seventies in high school, which is ridiculous, but

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Speaker 3: I was pretty hot to trot with my eighty one

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Speaker 3: that day, and I was like, Wow, Daniel's looking pretty good.

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Speaker 3: He's going to college for playing golf in college. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: but Kurt here is better, like already beats his older

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Speaker 3: brother at golf, and his brother was shooting in the

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Speaker 3: seventies as an eighteen year old. So that should tell

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Speaker 3: you everything, you know that I think six years difference there.

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Speaker 4: So he was junior high.

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Speaker 3: Age, he was already beating his older brother. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: let's just say Kurt is a special talent. And I

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Speaker 3: called his victory last year at bay Hill a two

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Speaker 3: hundred and fifty to one long shot, And I just

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Speaker 3: I saw the course fit with his style of play,

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Speaker 3: and I knew he was a grinder, where the tougher

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Speaker 3: the conditions and the more pressure that's put on these golfers,

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Speaker 3: which is Bayhill in a nutshell, the better he was

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Speaker 3: going to play. And that came to fruition where it

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Speaker 3: came down to the back nine on Sunday where he

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Speaker 3: had four of the top five golfers in the world

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Speaker 3: trying to chase him down and he beat them all

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Speaker 3: to take them in that trophy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, tough editions.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, he shot nine under par last year to win,

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Speaker 1: beating Rory McElroy and Harris English by one stroke, and

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Speaker 1: nine under was actually one of the better winning scores

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Speaker 1: in recent years. Other winners at Bayhill in the past

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Speaker 1: four years Scotti Scheffler won in twenty twenty two. He

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Speaker 1: was five under, one shot better than Victor Hoblin, Billy

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Speaker 1: Horschell and Tyrol Hatton. Only ten players in the field

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Speaker 1: finished under par in twenty twenty two. Bryson d Chambeau

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Speaker 1: minus eleven here. In twenty twenty one he won by

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Speaker 1: a shot over Lee Westwood, and in twenty twenty Tyrol

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Speaker 1: Hatton won with the score of minus four. He beat

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Speaker 1: Mark Leishman by one stroke. Only four players in the

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Speaker 1: field finished under par that year.

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Speaker 2: So if the.

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Speaker 1: Wind blows, especially this course can be just brutal. Give

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Speaker 1: me your take on bay Hillbow. What stands out to you?

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Speaker 1: What's it going to take for someone to win here?

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Speaker 3: It's the scrambling. It's because the te balls are important,

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Speaker 3: like you're going to focus on strokes gain from tee

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Speaker 3: to green ball. Striking skills are important, but you need

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Speaker 3: a guy that's a grinder, because even if your te

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Speaker 3: ball and your approach are good, that doesn't mean you're

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Speaker 3: going to get down into or one, especially making birdies here.

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Speaker 3: As a premium, you need guys that can keep their

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Speaker 3: head above water on those par three's that are filthy difficult.

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Speaker 3: Some of the par fours are easier, some of the

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Speaker 3: par fours are really tough, but the par fives are

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Speaker 3: everything here. Bryson one at minus eleven because he annihilated

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Speaker 3: the par fives and stayed alive on all the other holes.

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Speaker 3: Kurt Kideyama won at minus nine by his long approach

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Speaker 3: game was incredible and when he got into trouble, he

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Speaker 3: was getting up and down from the green side, which

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Speaker 3: is tight lies, lots of bunkering, but it's more like

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Speaker 3: even more important is the tight lies around the greens

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Speaker 3: with the grain of the bermuda and how fast they run.

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Speaker 3: It's if you have a guy that can get up

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Speaker 3: and down from a bad approach shot, that's going to

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Speaker 3: win this tournament. It's it's going to be making birdies

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Speaker 3: where you can find them and then surviving when you're

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Speaker 3: not in birdie position.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, grinding out pars is of the essence, and a

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Speaker 1: course like this and most tolls here, sure, because the

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Speaker 1: winning score is going to be very us open, like

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Speaker 1: at ben Hill this week.

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Speaker 3: I need some car, yes, sir, I think get my

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Speaker 3: card is a PGA National last week because it's too soft.

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Speaker 2: That's right.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully we get a little more fast, firm conditions this

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Speaker 1: week at Bayhill. We're going to break down the odds

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Speaker 1: in just a moment. But first, if you want a

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Speaker 1: chance to win a premium one year Betting Pro subscription.

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Speaker 1: You need to subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel

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Speaker 1: right now, comment below in this video and that's it.

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Speaker 1: We will be announcing a winner right here on the channel,

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Speaker 1: so make sure to turn on those notifications so you

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Speaker 1: can be alerted when new episodes are up and to

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Speaker 1: claim your prize. Scotty Scheffler is the favorite this week

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Speaker 1: at plus six point fifty.

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Speaker 2: Not a surprise. As mentioned a moment ago.

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Speaker 1: Scheffler won this event two years ago and he was

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Speaker 1: fourth year last year. Rory McElroy is plus nine hundred,

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Speaker 1: Xander Schaffley at Victor Hovland our plus fourteen hundred, Patrick

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Speaker 1: Cantley plus sixteen hundred, Ludwig Obert is plus eighteen hundred,

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Speaker 1: Jordan Spieth plus two thousand, Sam Burns and Colin Morikawa

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Speaker 1: are plus twenty two hundred, and at plus twenty five

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Speaker 1: hundred are Will Zalatoris, Tommy Fleetwood, Max Homa and Cameron Young.

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Speaker 1: And we'll also sneak in a mention of Matt Fitzpatrick,

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Speaker 1: who's played this course very well. He's plus twenty eight hundred.

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Speaker 1: Anyone you like from this top group bo.

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Speaker 3: I, like all of them. It's going to be really

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Speaker 3: hard to drill down because except for Kirk Kitty Yama

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Speaker 3: last year, this is usually a favorites type of tournament,

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Speaker 3: and it's going to be made even more so with

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Speaker 3: the format this year, with the sixty nine golfers and

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Speaker 3: the barely and he cut elevated money. I think a

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Speaker 3: favorite's going to win this. Figuring out which one of

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Speaker 3: these favorites is going to win is going to be

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Speaker 3: darn near impossible, because Scotty Scheffler should win this tournament

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Speaker 3: with how he fits this course he wanted two years

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Speaker 3: ago looked unbelievably us completely unbeatable. That year when the

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Speaker 3: conditions were unbelievably difficult, Scotti Scheffler was head and shoulders

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Speaker 3: above everybody else. And then last year Scotty Scheffler should

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Speaker 3: have won this tournament, but fizzled down the stretch trying

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Speaker 3: to catch up to Kurt Kidiama, tried to make birdies

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Speaker 3: when birdies weren't there and ended up messing up. But

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Speaker 3: for me, I'm starting my card with two guys at

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Speaker 3: fourteen to one. Xanderschoffley and Victor Hoveland both have the pedigree.

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Speaker 3: They both have the course history, and they both are

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Speaker 3: unbelievably good from tee to green. Xander more than Victor

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Speaker 3: in the short game aspect, but Victor more than Xander

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Speaker 3: on the tee to green aspect. It's those two guys

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Speaker 3: popped up to the very top of my first run

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Speaker 3: of the statistical model. I use those two stand apart

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Speaker 3: because I would love to bet Scotti Scheffler.

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Speaker 4: I would love it.

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Speaker 3: I would love to bet Rory, but their recent form

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Speaker 3: doesn't allow me to do that when I have two

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Speaker 3: guys that are just as good that are going to

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Speaker 3: pay me more money.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Hovland, it took him a while to warm up

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Speaker 1: to Bayhill, finished fortieth forty second forty ninth from twenty

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Speaker 1: nineteen to twenty twenty one, but then a second in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty two and a tenth last year. So he

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Speaker 1: seems to be figuring things out on this course. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: much improved. I mean, as you said, chipping is all important,

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Speaker 1: and Hobland was kind of a train wreck as a

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Speaker 1: chipper earlier in his career. Finally figured out that part

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Speaker 1: of his game. Boy bo I can't get away from Rory.

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Speaker 1: I know the forum hasn't been great but he played

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Speaker 1: pretty well for the most arts until his uh encounter

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Speaker 1: with the wet ball the pond lie at bay or

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Speaker 1: excuse me at PGA National last week.

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Speaker 2: His track yes, oh my god, definitely.

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Speaker 1: In his last seven appearances at Bayhill, dating back to

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Speaker 1: twenty seventeen, Rory has finished fourth, first, sixth, fifth, tenth, thirteenth, second,

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Speaker 1: Like it's almost a given that he's going to be

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Speaker 1: He's going to be lurking. I feel like he's going

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Speaker 1: to be lurking, and it also feels like he's somewhat

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Speaker 1: dou What about Jordan Speithpoe. It's only played this event twice,

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Speaker 1: I believe, but he's finished fourth both times.

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Speaker 3: And Speith is that scrambler that you're looking for. His

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Speaker 3: team scream game is an absolute nightmare. But if he

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Speaker 3: gets into trouble and you're looking for a grinder with

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Speaker 3: an incredible short game, Speth is of course what you're

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Speaker 3: going to look for. I don't like Spa as much

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Speaker 3: as I like some of the other guys in that

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Speaker 3: same range, so that's where I'm at with him. Rory

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Speaker 3: for me, doesn't score as well on the par fours,

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Speaker 3: and avoiding bogies is a big thing here, and he's

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Speaker 3: kind of middle of the pack there compared to some

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Speaker 3: of these top other favorites that are like top five

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Speaker 3: in those stats that I'm looking at. So those are

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Speaker 3: the things where he's done very well at Bayhill in

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Speaker 3: the past that he hasn't been doing recently. His scrambling

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Speaker 3: is nearly dead last in this entire field over his

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Speaker 3: last twenty four rounds. His shipping game, which has traditionally

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Speaker 3: been a strength of his, has not been on point

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Speaker 3: for Rory. His wedge game, his approach game, and short

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Speaker 3: distances are going to count for a thirty percent of

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Speaker 3: these holes, especially on those par fours, and it's just

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Speaker 3: not there. Like, Rory is incredibly talented, but when I'm

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Speaker 3: looking at a single digit payout, I want something better

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Speaker 3: and I want somebody who can actually I can picture

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Speaker 3: winning in this year's tournament, not five years ago.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he's not putting a lot of his wedge approaches close.

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Speaker 1: And you sort of alluded to it a second ago.

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Speaker 1: Both the average par four at Bayhill is only four

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty seven yards, so you're gonna be hitting

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Speaker 1: a lot of wedges into par fours, and you know,

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Speaker 1: maybe Rory just does not have the ability to stuff

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Speaker 1: those in there like he used to.

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Speaker 2: Can I interest you in.

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Speaker 1: Matthew Fitzpatrick, who has finished no worse than fourteenth in

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Speaker 1: any of his last five appearances here, with four top

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Speaker 1: tens those last five appearances second, ninth, tenth, ninth, fourteenth.

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Speaker 3: Great player, not a winner. I think he's He's a

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Speaker 3: major winner on a course pretty different from this one.

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Speaker 4: He doesn't show.

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Speaker 3: Up that much much when it comes to my modeling.

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Speaker 3: His odds are really appealing to me, So I'm going

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Speaker 3: to take a closer look at Fitz. I think that

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Speaker 3: you got a little bit of a Homer vibe t there,

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Speaker 3: because his name is very close in relation to yours,

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Speaker 3: Matt Fitzpatrick, Pat fitz Morris. It seems a little too

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Speaker 3: there's something fishy going on with you in FITZI because

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Speaker 3: Fitsy hasn't been very.

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Speaker 4: Good for a while.

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Speaker 3: But he's he's always getting mentioned on the show, and

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Speaker 3: that's right. I like him enough, but he just hasn't

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Speaker 3: been that sharp lately. And as much as I love

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Speaker 3: him and I love his odds, I need to look

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Speaker 3: at it a little closer for me to get into

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Speaker 3: playing him in this event.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll see.

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Speaker 1: I'm definitely betting him at Harbor Town. I don't know

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Speaker 1: if I'm going to play this way. Well, I've got

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Speaker 1: an inkling.

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Speaker 2: But if let's take a look at.

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Speaker 3: Us on the schedule, we're betting fits.

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Speaker 2: Oh, definitely.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a look at the players in the plus

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Speaker 1: three thousand and plus five thousand range. At plus three

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Speaker 1: thousand Justin Thomas and Jason Day, Minwu Lee is plus

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Speaker 1: thirty five hundred Hideki Matsuyamas plus four thousand. At plus

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Speaker 1: forty five hundred are Wyndham, Clark, Keegan Bradley and Ben On,

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Speaker 1: And at plus five thousand are Tom Kim, Russell, Henley,

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Speaker 1: Jake Knapp and Harris English. How about this group bo

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Speaker 1: anyone you like?

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Speaker 3: I Love Love Love Future PG Tour Comeback Player of

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Speaker 3: the Year Justin Thomas. Justin Thomas ranks fourth overall in

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Speaker 3: my model, behind Shoffley, Scheffler and Cantley, and at thirty

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Speaker 3: to one. I absolutely adore Justin Thomas. I think he's

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Speaker 3: very live to win this one. This guy's coming into

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Speaker 3: his own. He's looked really sharp since coming back from

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Speaker 3: a really disappointing season last year. I want the JT

383
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Speaker 3: comeback story to start here with a big win and

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Speaker 3: to get thirty to one on a player of that

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Speaker 3: caliber that fits this course so well with his wedge

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Speaker 3: game and his long approach game. I just I love

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Speaker 3: Justin Thomas here. That's going to be a really solid

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Speaker 3: pick for me.

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Speaker 1: Okay, interesting, Yeah, I do like that we're getting a

390
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Speaker 1: player of that pedigree at such long well not long odds,

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Speaker 1: but longer than we're used to.

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Speaker 5: For Justin Thomas.

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Speaker 2: That's why we're.

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Speaker 5: Giving these picks to the people.

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Speaker 3: Bo.

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Speaker 2: Keegan Bradley's kind of interesting. Again.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned Fitzpatrick not necessarily being a frequent winner. I

398
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Speaker 1: think we could say the same of Keegan Bradley, but

399
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Speaker 1: he's finished tenth, eleventh, and tenth in his last three

400
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:39,600
Speaker 1: trips here. Russell Henley bow doesn't have a great track

401
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:44,639
Speaker 1: record at Bayhill, finished thirteenth two years ago. Otherwise nothing,

402
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:48,200
Speaker 1: no top forties in any of his other six trips.

403
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:52,359
Speaker 1: His recent form hasn't been all that splendid either, But

404
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:55,520
Speaker 1: Henley has always fared pretty well on Bermuda Greens throughout

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Speaker 1: his career, and I kind of like getting him at

406
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Speaker 1: fifty to one.

407
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:04,200
Speaker 3: Russell Henley, who does not get that nice bomber bump

408
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 3: that we get at bay Hill. This is a bomber

409
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:11,120
Speaker 3: friendly course. Even seventy four hundred yards is a little

410
00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:15,399
Speaker 3: bit more than tour average, but it favors bombers with

411
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:18,360
Speaker 3: the landing areas, especially on the par fours. Par fives

412
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Speaker 3: are so tough for these shorter hitters like Henley. Henley's

413
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Speaker 3: an accuracy guy and where he dominates on Bermuda greens.

414
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Speaker 3: He's a great putter, He's got good short game. He's

415
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Speaker 3: going to be hitting longer clubs into these into these

416
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Speaker 3: scoring holes that I don't know if he has a

417
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Speaker 3: firepower to do. So I'll take your I see your

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Speaker 3: Russell Henley at fifty to one, and I raise you

419
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Speaker 3: a defending champion, Kurt kitty Yama at fifty five to

420
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Speaker 3: one right now, because if there's one guy I know

421
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 3: gets the bomber bump, has an outstanding long iron game

422
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Speaker 3: and is an incredible scrambler, it's Kirk kitty Yama.

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Speaker 4: This guy's a grinder where Henley is not.

424
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Speaker 3: I just I love Kurt Kittiama's fit to this course

425
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Speaker 3: just as much as I did last year.

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Speaker 4: And uh, we're.

427
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Speaker 3: Talking about good vibes, good vibes at Bayhill, like he's

428
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:17,680
Speaker 3: he slipped on that red sweater last year. That's gonna

429
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Speaker 3: be a forever place that's special to Kurt Kittiyama starting

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Speaker 3: this week, where he's getting a heck of a lot

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Speaker 3: more respect put on his name than he did last year.

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Speaker 1: In the recent form, not bad, top forty finish in

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Speaker 1: every event he's entered so far in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 2: The tougher one, top ten, tougher the bet.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, as you said, a guy who plays tough course

436
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 1: as well, and this is a tough course.

437
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,639
Speaker 2: What about long shots BO two.

438
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 3: Guys that are blazing hot right now. I'm not gonna

439
00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 3: take too many shots down that far, but I'm gonna

440
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 3: throw a little bit of skin on my guy from France,

441
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:59,399
Speaker 3: Mattu Pavon, because he's red hot. Seventy five to one

442
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 3: for a guy play that well, it's just it's disrespectful.

443
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 3: I think that even in a field this strong, this

444
00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:07,879
Speaker 3: guy's showed up and he's played out of his mind

445
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 3: this season. Hot golfers stay hot. Bad golfers that are

446
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:15,119
Speaker 3: that are in rough form like twenty FEMW should probably

447
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 3: drop out of Bay Hill and stay home. Pavone is

448
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 3: an incredible talent that is really coming into his own

449
00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 3: and ninety to one. The good vibes are carrying on

450
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:31,760
Speaker 3: from one Florida Bermuda Grass course to another. Austin Neck wrote,

451
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:35,360
Speaker 3: your guy is at ninety to one right now night

452
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:39,159
Speaker 3: plus nine thousand for the guy who just won going

453
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:43,359
Speaker 3: Away last week on a very similar course. I like,

454
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 3: Austin Neck wrote, at those odds, even if I'm just

455
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 3: throwing a couple bucks at him and a top twenty bet.

456
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 1: I want to like him, bo, but I've kind of

457
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 1: got this general policy. I don't like playing guys coming

458
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:55,680
Speaker 1: off a win. It seems like they've you know, they're

459
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 1: getting there.

460
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:57,679
Speaker 4: Me more money than it makes me.

461
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:02,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're eighteenth in my model this week, which out

462
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,280
Speaker 3: of sixty nine. That's more than enough to bet him

463
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 3: at ninety.

464
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:07,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, you should be.

465
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 1: It's a good point a hot player playing a similar

466
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 1: style of course. Yeah, I just I sometimes wonder if

467
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 1: those guys aren't a little I don't know if I

468
00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:22,640
Speaker 1: want to say, mentally checked out, but sort of preoccupied

469
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 1: with all the buzz around them the week after a win.

470
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 4: Think about Jake Napp, he'd ore near one that thing last.

471
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:29,880
Speaker 2: Week he did. He did Jake.

472
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,560
Speaker 3: I didn't even think he fit the course well. Like

473
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:37,119
Speaker 3: Jake Napp comes from Mexico Open on a very cupcake

474
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:41,200
Speaker 3: resort course to PGA National and looked out standing from

475
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,439
Speaker 3: Tita Green. He's another thing that you look at this

476
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 3: week because another hot golfer with plenty of firepower. I

477
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,239
Speaker 3: don't know if he has a scrambling to stay with

478
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:50,640
Speaker 3: this course, but Echro does.

479
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:53,959
Speaker 1: While we're on the subject of guys at ninety to

480
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:55,480
Speaker 1: one bowl, let me run.

481
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:57,240
Speaker 5: Tom Hogy by you.

482
00:25:58,960 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 2: He finished.

483
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:03,000
Speaker 1: He's finished top ten in two of his last four events,

484
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:04,880
Speaker 1: and he's been top thirty and all four.

485
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 2: His track record at Bayhill not great.

486
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 1: With miss cuts in two of his last three trips,

487
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 1: but he's also finished fifteenth, twenty sixth, and thirty second

488
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 1: in past trips here any interest.

489
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:21,680
Speaker 3: And he's supposed to be a Bermuda specialist, but he's

490
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:25,920
Speaker 3: better on shorter courses. He's one of those accuracy guys,

491
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:28,760
Speaker 3: kind of like a poor man's Henley. He rates out

492
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,240
Speaker 3: well here still, I think he's twentieth in my model.

493
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 3: We as good of an iron player as he is,

494
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:38,960
Speaker 3: especially in those two hundred plus distances. He's a great

495
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:45,440
Speaker 3: approach player, nearly dead lasted scrambling. He's struggling to get

496
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 3: up and down and avoid bogies, which here is probably

497
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 3: why he's missing cuts. Because we're as good as he

498
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 3: is at making birdies on gettable par four's and shorter

499
00:26:56,000 --> 00:27:00,240
Speaker 3: par fives. I'm not sure that he can overcome a

500
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 3: bad hole where he's exponentially worse on when he doesn't

501
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,960
Speaker 3: hit the green, especially when he misses the fairway. From

502
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 3: the fairway, he's as good as it gets. From the rough,

503
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:15,879
Speaker 3: He's he's going to get eaten Aliva here. So not

504
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:17,920
Speaker 3: a huge fan of Hogy, and of course this long

505
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:20,680
Speaker 3: he well beach. Yeah, Tom Hogy all the way.

506
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 1: Let's cover the Puerto Rico Open in just a minute

507
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 1: or two bo It's played at the Grand Reserve Golf Club,

508
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 1: which is a par seventy two spanning seven five hundred

509
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:34,159
Speaker 1: and six yards. The greens are past polum as we

510
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:36,640
Speaker 1: as were the greens at the Mexico Open a couple

511
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:39,639
Speaker 1: of weeks ago, and it's a fairly easy track. The

512
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:44,439
Speaker 1: last four winners Nico Achaveria, Ryan Bram, Brandon, Grace and

513
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 1: Victor Hovland all one with scores ranging from minus twenty

514
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:51,439
Speaker 1: one to minus nineteen. Rasmus Hoyguard is the favorite at

515
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 1: plus fourteen hundred. I'm going to bet him bow because

516
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:56,280
Speaker 1: I think he's the best player in this field by

517
00:27:56,880 --> 00:28:00,600
Speaker 1: a good margin, and maybe really the only guy in

518
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:01,640
Speaker 1: the field who's been in.

519
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 2: Tip top form so far in twenty twenty four.

520
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 1: I'm also going to make small plays on Brandon Wu

521
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 1: at plus three thousand and defending champ Nico at Chiavaria.

522
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 1: Talk about disrespectful seventy to one for a guy who

523
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,440
Speaker 1: won it last year and has been in decent form

524
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:21,880
Speaker 1: so far this year. Are you betting the Puerto Rico

525
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 1: Open at all bow?

526
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:26,679
Speaker 3: I have one name, and I've said his name on

527
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:28,199
Speaker 3: this show before.

528
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 4: You've butchered his name on the show before Rio.

529
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:36,879
Speaker 3: He set Sune Jazzu said, Sunne has got this incredible

530
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:41,479
Speaker 3: birdie making ability and at twenty five to one, I

531
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:44,880
Speaker 3: like his firepower here and I like the ability for

532
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 3: him to go super duper low and put. If he's

533
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 3: on his form here, he's going to leave this field

534
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 3: in dust. Rasmus is more of a grinder. He's a

535
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:57,560
Speaker 3: solid player. He's obviously in great form. He's a deserved

536
00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 3: favorite here, but I think that it's to take some

537
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 3: firepower to win this thing, and I give me a

538
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:06,080
Speaker 3: rio and a little bit Brandon Wu. I'm in agreement

539
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 3: with Brandon Wu.

540
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 4: He's a good player. Shout out NorCal.

541
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 1: All right, all right, I don't want to get left

542
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 1: behind on Heisatsuni because we liked him at the Mexico Open.

543
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 1: Uh maybe you know, just one one warm up attempt

544
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 1: on these past polum greens and he's going to be

545
00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:22,440
Speaker 1: good to go in Puerto Rico.

546
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 2: Let's get to our one and done. Picks bow.

547
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:27,720
Speaker 1: You had Chris Kirk last week, finished in a tie

548
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 1: for twenty eighth place, good for fifty nine and fourteen dollars.

549
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 2: I had Shane Lowry.

550
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 1: Who was in contention throughout the tournament, had giving me

551
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 1: visions of a win and a big blow against you.

552
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:42,720
Speaker 2: Bo didn't happen.

553
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 1: Disappointing final round seventy one to finish in a tie

554
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 1: for fourth. That got me three hundred and forty four

555
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:53,320
Speaker 1: thousand dollars to three hundred and forty four two point fifty,

556
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 1: pushed me over the million dollar mark and got me

557
00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 1: within about oh one point eight million dollars of you both.

558
00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 1: And by the way, I felt like I stold about

559
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 1: it was a six figure amount because I don't know

560
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 1: if you saw the lowry birdie pot on the final

561
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:11,720
Speaker 1: hole that did a three hundred and sixty degree tour

562
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:15,440
Speaker 1: of the cop drop on like a five footer before

563
00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 1: going in, that was probably worth another one hundred thousand

564
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 1: dollars to me.

565
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 4: So yeah, need for fourth.

566
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 3: So it would have been down to tie for seventh

567
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 3: if that didn't go down.

568
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 1: So all I need are about seven or eight more

569
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 1: weeks like this past one. But and I'll go flying

570
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:32,400
Speaker 1: right by past you.

571
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 2: I'm up first this week.

572
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 1: I'll take my guy, Matt Fitzpatrick bo I'm horses for courses,

573
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 1: and you know he's consistently been grinding out the top

574
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:43,600
Speaker 1: tens here.

575
00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 2: Who's it going to be for you?

576
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 3: I the favorites are going to win this saying, and

577
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:54,480
Speaker 3: I just have to be smart about it. But I

578
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:57,480
Speaker 3: still haven't decided. I'm going to pull up right now.

579
00:30:57,680 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 3: I'm going to make a choice two seconds. I don't

580
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:06,720
Speaker 3: remember if I've played Victor Hovelin yet. Have I played

581
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 3: Victor Hovelind yet?

582
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:09,840
Speaker 2: I don't believe you have played Victor.

583
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:12,320
Speaker 3: I'm playing Victor Hovland this week.

584
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:17,480
Speaker 1: Hoveland. It is the Norwegian. All right, that's going to

585
00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 1: do it. For this week's show, I want to thank

586
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 1: our sponsor, Underdog Fantasy. Sign up for Underdog if you

587
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 1: haven't already with the promo CODEVP Golf to get your

588
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 1: first deposit matchup to one hundred dollars plus a special

589
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 1: pick available for you in the lobby. And please come

590
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:34,120
Speaker 1: join Bow and I again next week when we will

591
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 1: be previewing the.

592
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:38,000
Speaker 2: Fifth major, the Players Championship.

593
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 1: It's one of the bigger events on the PGA Tour

594
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 1: calendar and we will cover it in great detail next week.

595
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 2: Until then, so long everyone.

596
00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 6: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

597
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 6: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

598
00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 6: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

599
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:58,120
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600
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:01,880
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601
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:15,600
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