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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene. Daily

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Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg. This

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Speaker 1: is an important conversation, as he spoke to James Bullard yesterday,

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Speaker 1: as we spoke to William Dudley moments ago. Michael McKee

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Speaker 1: advances the discussion with Mr Kaplan of Dallas. Michael, Thank you, Tom,

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Speaker 1: Good morning, Rob. Thank you very much for joining us

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Speaker 1: today on Bloomberg Radio and television worldwide. Um, and thank

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Speaker 1: you for not wearing a tie and not making Tom

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Speaker 1: look bad here. UM. I hate to do this, but

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Speaker 1: let me start by playing the cynics advocate. There are

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Speaker 1: those who are saying this morning, the Framework Review change

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Speaker 1: is all well and good. What makes you think you

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Speaker 1: can even get to two inflation, let alone over it

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Speaker 1: since you've gone a decade without getting there. Uh yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's possible that it will take a while to get

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Speaker 1: to two. Technology technology enabled disruption UH in particular, are

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Speaker 1: limiting the pricing power of businesses and uh AN inflation

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Speaker 1: has been muted for close to ten years, and so

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Speaker 1: part of this policy articulation is really a reaffirmation of

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Speaker 1: the of the situation we've been operating in our decision

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Speaker 1: function for the last few years. It's not a radical shift.

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Speaker 1: It's an affirmation that we're we've been in a more

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Speaker 1: muted inflation period. We need to be alert that that

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Speaker 1: could change. But uh, but I don't. I don't view

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Speaker 1: this policy articulation is as a is a radical change.

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Speaker 1: It's a reaffirmation of the way we've been operating. So

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Speaker 1: the new policy is that quote, appropriate monetary policy will

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Speaker 1: likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above two for some time.

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Speaker 1: How do you define moderately above and how do you

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Speaker 1: define some time? Yeah, and we've left it deliberately undefined.

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Speaker 1: To me, price stability is still our dual mandate. It's

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Speaker 1: full employment and price stability. Two percent is our our

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Speaker 1: best indicator of that. And so for for me, what

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Speaker 1: it means is if we're running, if we get into

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Speaker 1: situation I hope we do in the next couple of years,

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Speaker 1: we're running closer to full employment. I'm willing to take

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Speaker 1: a little bit more risk and have a greater tolerance. Uh,

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Speaker 1: in my monetary policy judgments that inflation could run a

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Speaker 1: little bit above two percent, And for me, a little

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Speaker 1: bit means a little bit. Uh in that I've I've

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Speaker 1: said publicly, you know, to and a quarter maybe a

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Speaker 1: little bit more than that. I still think price stability

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Speaker 1: is the overriding goal. And and this framework doesn't change that. Well,

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Speaker 1: why isn't this a return to nineteen sixties style FED

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Speaker 1: policy trading off inflation for lower unemployment, Because of course

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Speaker 1: that didn't end well. Yeah, and that's a danger. That

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Speaker 1: that's a danger. And so it's not that I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: lose a concern that we could have a spike in inflation.

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Speaker 1: And I'm not going to lose a concern. And in fact,

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Speaker 1: this this framework articulates a concern about financial stability. I

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Speaker 1: think those concerns haven't gone away. Uh, it just says

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Speaker 1: on the margin, this is my interpretation and the way

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Speaker 1: I'll be operating. On the margin. I'm willing to take

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Speaker 1: a little bit more risk in service of getting underrepresented

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Speaker 1: groups into the labor force, a little bit more risk

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Speaker 1: on inflation. But I am, not, for one, going to

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Speaker 1: be willing to take risk that we'll lose price stability

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Speaker 1: allah the sixties and seventies. I'm gonna be on guard

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Speaker 1: against that. Well, there's also a concern out there that

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Speaker 1: an overrepresent a group people on Wall Street are going

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Speaker 1: to be the real beneficiaries here. That you may not

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Speaker 1: be able to stimulate a lot of economic activity or inflation,

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Speaker 1: but you sure can pump up the stock market. I

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Speaker 1: think that's also something we have to be cognizant of,

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Speaker 1: and in particular, not just on the FED funds rate,

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Speaker 1: but also on our purchases of treasuries and mortgage backed

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Speaker 1: securities and the thirteen three programs that we've implemented this year.

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Speaker 1: I think it's very important that we articulate that those

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Speaker 1: programs will lapse. Uh. And I do think, uh, we

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Speaker 1: we need to be conscious of financial stability and excesses

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Speaker 1: that could build as a result of our policies. And

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Speaker 1: and I will view that as an important consideration as

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Speaker 1: I make judgments going forward. Well, if you were still

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Speaker 1: at Goldben Sacks looking at your Bloomberg terminal, would you

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Speaker 1: think that maybe we see some bubbles forming now? I would.

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Speaker 1: I would be concerned that, uh, when the Fed takes

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Speaker 1: the type of actions we've needed to take this year. Uh,

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Speaker 1: you have, you have excesses and risk assets, not just prices.

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Speaker 1: But what I'm particularly concerned about is debt build up.

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Speaker 1: And there hasn't been as much discussion. Maybe there is,

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Speaker 1: there should have been. But part of the issue we

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Speaker 1: faced in March with the with the pandemic and the

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Speaker 1: and the closures that we had to do to fight

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Speaker 1: it is we had a lot of excesses in financial

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Speaker 1: markets and it required the FED to step in and

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Speaker 1: do quite a bit to stabilize financial markets. So those

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Speaker 1: excesses can build up. They're hard to see, and yeah,

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Speaker 1: i'd be I am worried about those in the seat

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Speaker 1: I'm sitting in, and I'd be conscious of those. Uh

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Speaker 1: if I were in the private sector. Well, you do

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Speaker 1: know Wall Street given your background, and you know as

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Speaker 1: well as I do that all the traders are sitting

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Speaker 1: there this morning going yeah, great about this framework review.

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Speaker 1: But what have you done for me lately? Are you

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Speaker 1: anticipating any kind of change in the statement, something more

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Speaker 1: to adjust forward guidance? Ah. I would prefer and I'm

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Speaker 1: one one view around the table. I would prefer to wait.

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Speaker 1: I would prefer to get more clarity on the path

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Speaker 1: of the virus. I think we've already given quite a

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Speaker 1: bit off forward guidance in that through our summary of

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Speaker 1: economic projections, which will do another one in September. I've

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Speaker 1: already said that rates are going to stay low for

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Speaker 1: the rest of this year and all of next year. UH,

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Speaker 1: and I would prefer to show some restraint here. We

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Speaker 1: I think we've done quite a bit. We last spoke

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Speaker 1: with you at the beginning of the month when COVID

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Speaker 1: cases were spiking in Texas and the six hundred dollars

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Speaker 1: in extra unemployment benefits was just running out. What's the

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Speaker 1: economy like now? A month on from there, so we

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Speaker 1: had a we had a pretty robust rebound through mid June.

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Speaker 1: We saw some stalling after June, and I would say

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Speaker 1: in the last two or three weeks, all our high

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Speaker 1: frequency indicators mobility engagement indusseries are improved, are are firming,

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Speaker 1: and so we're rebounding. Uh. We were not rebounding as

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Speaker 1: much as we would have if we had the virus

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Speaker 1: under better control, but we're still rebounding. We think third

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Speaker 1: quarter I think third quarter GDP is going to be

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Speaker 1: plus annualized, and so we are. We are growing we're rebounding.

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Speaker 1: The issue is, as long as we've got relatively high

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Speaker 1: levels of virus present, it limits consumers willingness to engage

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Speaker 1: in a number of industries and activities, and that is

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Speaker 1: having a muting effect on the rebound. But we're still

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Speaker 1: but we're still rebounding. Well. A week from today we

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Speaker 1: get the August payrolls report, what is the labor market like?

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Speaker 1: What should we expect when we get those numbers? Uh,

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Speaker 1: we think that between now and the end of the year,

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Speaker 1: we're at ten point two percent unemployment right now. Uh.

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Speaker 1: The bigger indicator I look at you six, which is

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Speaker 1: unemployed plus discouraged workers plus people working part time who

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Speaker 1: would like to work full time. Is those are both

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Speaker 1: going to improve to where the unemployment rate is going

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Speaker 1: to end the year. We think closer today at this point,

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Speaker 1: and the U six figure will come down also proportionately.

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Speaker 1: So I can't tell you the exact timing month to month,

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Speaker 1: but you're you're going to see gradual improvement till the

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Speaker 1: end of the year unless we have a greater resurgence

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Speaker 1: than the virus. The virus is still the key. Going

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Speaker 1: back to the framework bringing that into this, you decline

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Speaker 1: to put a numerical target on unemployment because the inflation

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Speaker 1: inflection point changes over time. According to the Fed, Uh,

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Speaker 1: we got down to three and a half percent unemployment

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Speaker 1: in February with no inflation. Can we get back there

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Speaker 1: again under your framework? Uh, We're to give it every

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Speaker 1: We're going to give the economy every opportunity to do that.

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Speaker 1: The dynamics of inflation may well change, uh, and I'm

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Speaker 1: a tuned to that because of supply shortages, They're going

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Speaker 1: to be further changes in technology and technology enabled disruption.

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Speaker 1: There may be changes in the dollar. We'll have to

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Speaker 1: see if there's severe dollar weakness that could have an

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Speaker 1: impact on inflation. And so UM, I think I think

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Speaker 1: my own approach is going to be I want to

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Speaker 1: give the labor market every opportunity to get back to

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Speaker 1: that point and not pre empt improvement because I anticipate inflation.

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Speaker 1: I'm willing to take a little bit more risk in

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Speaker 1: having inflation run moderately above two percent in order to

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Speaker 1: get to fuller employment and bring in a number of

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Speaker 1: these underrepresented groups that I think will really help the

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Speaker 1: country and help the labor market be stronger. Speaking of

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Speaker 1: inflation expectations, as a Wall Street guy who really gets

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Speaker 1: this stuff. What are ake Even's telling us? Now, there's

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Speaker 1: a theory out there that while they have been rising,

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Speaker 1: it's really because there's a lack of liquidity in the

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Speaker 1: tips market, and if you take that liquidity premium out,

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Speaker 1: you don't see any inflation embedded in the expectations markets. Uh.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of factors that affect trading markets. As

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Speaker 1: you said, liquidity is one of them. I would say

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Speaker 1: the concern about dollar weakness is reflected in a number

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Speaker 1: of commodities, and I think is having some effect on

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Speaker 1: the tips market. So there there are certain groups, I

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Speaker 1: would guess in the private sector that are positioning themselves

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Speaker 1: to be prepared for higher inflation than we've had the

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Speaker 1: last ten years. That may or may not happen, but

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Speaker 1: I think you're seeing a little bit of that concern

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Speaker 1: in the tips market. Well, last quick question, I'm turning

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Speaker 1: you over to Tom. Tom wants to know will the

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Speaker 1: US economy collapse if there's no football in Texas this ball? Uh?

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Speaker 1: I think the the the the Texas economy, and the

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Speaker 1: the US has shown to be very resilient even if

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Speaker 1: you take away things that that we hold sacred. We'll

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Speaker 1: adapt to it and well will continue to will continue

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Speaker 1: to power ahead. Robert Kaplan, the president of the Dallas,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much for joining us. Did you see Oh, yes,

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Speaker 1: her dad he hasn't that like a press conference is

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Speaker 1: like he was practicing to be polist press conference. Michael McKee,

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Speaker 1: congratulations on a bullard and cup and conversation wrapped around

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Speaker 1: Chairman Paul speech as well. In days of old of

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg on the economy, this would be a one hour conversation.

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Speaker 1: We'll compress that in now with William Dudley. For years

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Speaker 1: at Golden Sacks and given great credit for inventing modern

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Speaker 1: Goldben Sacks economics, and then at the New York Fed.

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Speaker 1: Bill Dudley out of Berkeley has been one of our

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Speaker 1: greatest students of our theory of monetary policy. Bill Dudley,

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Speaker 1: what did the chairman wrought yesterday? We knew this was coming,

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Speaker 1: but the scathing notes I have read from selected economists

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Speaker 1: have startled me. What did he do yesterday? But what

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Speaker 1: he did yesterday was he basically changed the inflation objective

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Speaker 1: of the FED reserve. Before the Fed failed what's called

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Speaker 1: bygones police. Every year they tried to hit two percent,

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Speaker 1: they missed for five years, ten years, a hundred years,

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Speaker 1: a thousand years, next year. It was always to try

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Speaker 1: to hit two percent. Problem with doing that is if

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Speaker 1: you keep missing on one side, inflation expectations become an anchored,

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Speaker 1: and that was troubling the FED. The FED hasn't had

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Speaker 1: troubled hitting two percent objective on inflation for many years.

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Speaker 1: So basically the FED has shifted and said, now, no,

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Speaker 1: we don't want to hit two percent every year. We

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Speaker 1: want to hit two percent on average. So if we

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Speaker 1: underperform inflation for a bunch of years, then we need

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Speaker 1: to have inflation above two percent for a while in

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Speaker 1: order to keep inflation expectations around two percent. That's really

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Speaker 1: what that's this whole shifted designed to keep inflation expectations

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Speaker 1: well anchored at two percent well explained. If we combine

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Speaker 1: Angus medicine on demographics and population with Alan Meltzer on

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Speaker 1: the history of your institution, A simple question has to

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Speaker 1: be asked, if we assume a lesser nominal GDP, if

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Speaker 1: we assume a more dampened economy, why don't we just

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Speaker 1: lower the two percent target to one point nine or

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Speaker 1: one point eight percent. Why not do that. The reason

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Speaker 1: why the Fed wants to have a inflation target of

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Speaker 1: two percent, not lower, is they want to have enough

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Speaker 1: room when you end uh an economic expansion to have

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Speaker 1: the nominal interest rate high enough so there's enough room

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Speaker 1: to cut rates to stimulate the economy and get the

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Speaker 1: econmy out of recession. Let's say the inflation target was zero,

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Speaker 1: then the you know, the peak short term funds rate

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Speaker 1: would at the end of the cycle might be two

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Speaker 1: or three percent. There wouldn't be much room to cut rates,

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Speaker 1: and therefore there wouldn't be much way way to actually

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Speaker 1: stimulate economic activity. J Powell essentially way writing the obituary

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Speaker 1: for the Phillips curve this relationship that previously was believed

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Speaker 1: that if you get unemployment lower, that will lead to

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Speaker 1: a rise in inflation. I wouldn't say it's quite the obituary,

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Speaker 1: but he's basically saying that we are now going to

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Speaker 1: focus on inflation to god when we tighten entrey policy,

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Speaker 1: not the level of the unemployer rate. So they change

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Speaker 1: the language with respect to their employment goals rather than

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Speaker 1: deviations around their employment goals, it's now shortfalls. So they're

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Speaker 1: basically saying that we'll push the unemployer rate to whatever

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Speaker 1: level we can. As long as inflation is low, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna keep going. Before in this last cycle, we actually

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Speaker 1: saw the Feds start to rage rates even before we

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Speaker 1: got to a full employment. So we are getting inflation

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Speaker 1: in certain areas, and we were talking about this earlier

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Speaker 1: in the show. Certainly asset prices have gotten incredibly inflated

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Speaker 1: and continued to do so on the promise that the

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Speaker 1: Federal keep rates low. How concerning is this? At what

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Speaker 1: point does this have to take to make the take

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Speaker 1: stock and raise rates. Well, I think that they are

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Speaker 1: a little bit uncomfortable with the fact that asset prices

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Speaker 1: are are so buoyant. But remember that was it's also

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Speaker 1: partly by design. I mean, the Fed basically did what

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Speaker 1: they did in March April May to try to make

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Speaker 1: the Monterrey policy easy and financial conditions a conditive, and

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Speaker 1: they succeeded. Now, as the stock market keeps going up

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Speaker 1: and up and up and up, that will cause some

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Speaker 1: anxiety about the Fed. But remember the stock markets go up,

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Speaker 1: stock markets go down. The consequences for financial stability historically

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Speaker 1: have been actually been pretty modest. We had the stock

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Speaker 1: market crash in lots of economists anticipated there be a recession.

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Speaker 1: There was no recession. I think that, you know, buoyancy

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Speaker 1: in the stock market is probably less risky to the

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Speaker 1: economy because it's not all people that hold, you know,

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Speaker 1: use a lot of leverage to own own stocks. Bill

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Speaker 1: Dudley Robert Samuelson in The Washington Post wrote a fabulous

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Speaker 1: book a decade ago on the sixties inflation, really centering

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Speaker 1: on the theology of Walter Heller and well meaning people

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Speaker 1: who were trying to tame budgets in the Vietnam we're

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Speaker 1: budgets and and such. Stephen Stanley of Amir's Pier Punt

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Speaker 1: wrote a wonderful essay over the weekend, and he hearkens

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Speaker 1: back to the volatility that could be assumed here through

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Speaker 1: what are called stop go policies. The idea of a

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Speaker 1: FED that has to adapt suddenly we move away from

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Speaker 1: the green span uh careful set a sequential policy back

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Speaker 1: towards the Walter Heller stop go policies of the sixties

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Speaker 1: and seventies. Is that a risk. I wouldn't put it

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Speaker 1: quite letting that way in terms of stop go. But

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Speaker 1: what what the FED is basically saying is we're gonna

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Speaker 1: wait until inflation actually gets before we tighten. What that

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Speaker 1: means is when they start to tighten, they'll probably try

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Speaker 1: have to tighten quite a lot. And so you know,

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Speaker 1: the markets right now are saying, oh, this is great.

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Speaker 1: The Fed's gonna be on hold for a very long time.

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Speaker 1: But it also raises the risk that when inflation actually

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Speaker 1: gets above to two percent of the Fed's objective, the

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Speaker 1: FED will actually have to slam on the brakes a

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Speaker 1: little bit harder, and so it does increase the risk

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Speaker 1: of an economic downturn. On the other side, is the

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Speaker 1: is the Greenspan era ending? I mean, if if Alan

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Speaker 1: Greenspan was of a gradual approach of sixteenths and eighths

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Speaker 1: of a percentage point, are we going back with the

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Speaker 1: stop going as you just mentioned larger increases did the

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Speaker 1: Greenspan era and yesterday? You know, I'm not sure that

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Speaker 1: Alan greens would necessarily disagree with what the FED is

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Speaker 1: proposing here, but it certainly we're now in a new

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Speaker 1: regime where you don't tighten preemptively just because you think

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Speaker 1: the commun is getting to the full employment. You actually

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Speaker 1: wait to see whether the low unemployer rate actually translates

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Speaker 1: into rising inflation before you actually play mont So it

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Speaker 1: is a it is a meaningful ship. Now that said,

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Speaker 1: I think the FED is actually already acting that way today.

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Speaker 1: The fact that when the FED stopped raising rates and

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Speaker 1: reverse course, you know, a year and a half ago, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, that was partly due to an idea that

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Speaker 1: we want to get inflation above two percent, that was

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Speaker 1: already So we already have seen a shift in policy.

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Speaker 1: Does the FED have any control at this point given

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Speaker 1: where rates are in actually boosting the inflation rate that

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Speaker 1: they want to boost. Well, that's where autocomments has some skepticism.

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Speaker 1: It's it's nice to say that you want to get

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Speaker 1: inflation above two but you haven't been able to accomplish

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Speaker 1: that over the last ten years, and so what are

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Speaker 1: the tools you're going to use to actually accomplish that outcome.

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Speaker 1: So there's quite a bit of skepticism about whether the

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Speaker 1: FED will actually be successful in pushing inflation above two percent.

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Speaker 1: And the Japanese experience is a cautionary tale in that regard. Well,

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Speaker 1: they said, I mean J F R. J. Powell said,

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Speaker 1: we are prepared to use all the tools in our

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Speaker 1: toolbox and they didn't go on to say what those

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Speaker 1: tools were, and we're all sort of left in the dark.

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Speaker 1: What do you see as the most plausible tools that

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Speaker 1: the FED will engage next should there be another like

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Speaker 1: of a downturn. Well, I think that they'll do more

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Speaker 1: of the same, They'll do more asset purchases, They'll keep

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Speaker 1: their their credit to liquidit programs in place. But I

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Speaker 1: think the reality is we have to acknowledge the fact

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Speaker 1: that the power of Monterrey policy right now to stimulate

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Speaker 1: the economy it's pretty low. I mean, interest rates are

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Speaker 1: already very low, the stock market is already very high,

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Speaker 1: credit markets are very open and accessible. So the the

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Speaker 1: the idea that the FED can do more. Yes, they

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Speaker 1: can do more, but how much effect will it actually

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Speaker 1: have in the economy. That's why the FED keeps talking

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Speaker 1: about fiscal policy right now. The FED understands that that

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Speaker 1: the power from Montreal policies to support the economy today

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Speaker 1: is pretty darned modest, and what the economy really needs

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Speaker 1: at this point is for their fiscal support. Bill Dudley,

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Speaker 1: I want to go back to the heritage of Berkeley

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Speaker 1: economics and folks, it's just a fabulous heritage. We know,

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Speaker 1: I can green and de long of now, but the

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Speaker 1: heritage back to the time of Bill Dudley is absolutely extraordinary,

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Speaker 1: from Anchor Loft and uh Sayas and and others, Bill Dudley,

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Speaker 1: when you look at the heritage of Berkeley economics, can

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Speaker 1: you say that the speech yesterday will have a global

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Speaker 1: impact that other central bankers, including Andrew Bailey speaking here

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Speaker 1: in and hour or so at Jackson Hall, that they

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Speaker 1: will have to adjust as well. I think people generally

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Speaker 1: are are understanding more and more that the importance of

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Speaker 1: keeping inflation expectations well anchored, and so I think that's

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Speaker 1: a broadly share view around around the world. So I

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Speaker 1: don't really think that the FED is sort of in

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Speaker 1: the vanguard here. I think what they're doing is responding

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Speaker 1: to a problem that's been very evident for a number

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Speaker 1: of years. Bill. What's the statistic above two percent where

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Speaker 1: this policy in place, where the sweat goes up among

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Speaker 1: fancy guys like you. Is it two point one percent?

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Speaker 1: Or is it the number substantially higher the tape is

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Speaker 1: really I think it depends on two things. One, how

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Speaker 1: long have you been below two percent? And by how much?

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Speaker 1: And numbers and how that is then affected inslation expectations

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Speaker 1: at the end of the day is they made it

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Speaker 1: very clear in their policy statement what they care about

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Speaker 1: at the end of the day is keeping inflation expectations

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Speaker 1: anchored at two percent. So the inflation outcomes necessary to

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Speaker 1: do that are what going to drive their decision beating.

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Speaker 1: It turned out that inflation rising to two and a

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Speaker 1: quarter percent was sufficient to keep inflation expectations anchored at

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Speaker 1: two percent, and they stopped there. It turned out that

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Speaker 1: they needed inflation to rise to two and a half

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Speaker 1: or three percent to get inflation expectations will anchor and

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Speaker 1: maybe more patient. This is fascinating, Bill Dudley, thank you

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Speaker 1: so much, a very generous interview or the former president

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Speaker 1: of the New York Fed. Right now, the gentleman from

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Speaker 1: Michigan and Chicago joins us Smart Casel. He is with

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Speaker 1: PIMCO or CIO for Global Credit. Mark your world changed

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Speaker 1: yesterday and what way did Pimco's world change because of

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Speaker 1: the new framework of Chairman Pouel. Well, Tom, I think

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Speaker 1: this is a big deal. Powell. I agree, and this

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Speaker 1: is it may not be a paradigm ship, but I

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Speaker 1: think this is a significant evolution of how the FED thinks.

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Speaker 1: And I think Powell is a really good leader. If

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Speaker 1: you if you look at the inflation, the core PC inflation,

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Speaker 1: we haven't gotten to the FEDS inflation target mandate since

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Speaker 1: two thousand five to two thousand and six, so we

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Speaker 1: have had fifteen years of undershooting in our country. And

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Speaker 1: by the way, the same thing has happened in Europe

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Speaker 1: and Japan. So I think, you know, Paul has realized

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Speaker 1: this and they are willing to run the economy hot,

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Speaker 1: and I think he's going to go all in. Uh

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Speaker 1: in Sport. I hate to say, is Lisa, but it's

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Speaker 1: a victory lab for Kis. We gotta do it this morning.

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Speaker 1: Marquis your shop full disclosure, folks, I visited Newport, I've

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Speaker 1: been to Cappy's Cafe with Mohammed, you guys, with the

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Speaker 1: leadership of Bill and Mohammed, and then following on after

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Speaker 1: that train wreck with your leadership, Marquisel. PIMCO has been

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Speaker 1: dead on about a low rate regime. Do you maintain

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Speaker 1: that low rate regime or can you see out two years,

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Speaker 1: five years, ten years where we get back to the

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Speaker 1: normalcy The chairman Paul desires, uh, Tom, you know we

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Speaker 1: we think we're probably closer to the lows now and

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Speaker 1: rates and that's simply because we are going to get

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Speaker 1: um We think a big fiscal push it could it

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Speaker 1: could happen after the election, but monetary policy is going

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Speaker 1: all in the said has been unbelievably supportive for markets.

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Speaker 1: Uh and and we think ultimately with the mobility data

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Speaker 1: will improve, the economy will start growing again. If we

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Speaker 1: get fiscal infrastructure spending with the Democrats, we could see

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Speaker 1: a much deeper curve and you could over time see

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Speaker 1: higher rates. So I think we're closer to the lows now,

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Speaker 1: even though yes, we did think rates would come down,

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Speaker 1: but now now I think we're we're suggesting that with

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Speaker 1: the economic recovery and all the fiscal and monetary policy support,

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Speaker 1: that rates over time could could go higher. Mark. This

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Speaker 1: is a huge call, the idea that we could be

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Speaker 1: near the lows after thirty forty years of yields going down.

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Speaker 1: What does that mean about investment grade credit? Given the

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Speaker 1: fact that duration, a measure of the sensitivity to interest rates,

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Speaker 1: has risen to the highest levels on record, is investment

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Speaker 1: grade credit riskier than high yield at this point? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think what you're gonna see And if you go

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Speaker 1: back to March, what was fascinating about this, Lisa, is

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Speaker 1: the opportunity actually back then was an investment grade. The said,

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Speaker 1: did this corporate bond purchasing program. By the way, they

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Speaker 1: announced the secondary market facility at two and fifty billion,

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Speaker 1: they've only used thirteen billions, so they've used five percent

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Speaker 1: of it. And yet the investment grade corporate bond market

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Speaker 1: is priced one point for trillion this year of investment

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Speaker 1: grade supply. That's a hundred multiplier on the government's money.

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Speaker 1: One of the most effective programs in the history of

431
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:38,880
Speaker 1: central banking. So the fact is is that you're right,

432
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 1: the opportunity was an investment grade. But now what people

433
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:45,680
Speaker 1: are realizing is that, hey, if this economy broadens, you're

434
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 1: gonna have to own some equities. You're gonna have to

435
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 1: own some high yield. So we are seeing a transition

436
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:52,680
Speaker 1: in the market. And I think as people feel more

437
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 1: comfortable flying and getting getting on planes and the mobility

438
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 1: dat improves, you'll start to see investors continue to take

439
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 1: more risk. Okay, mark investors, people broadening out? What about you?

440
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 1: Are you seeing the opportunity for you to take PIMCO

441
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,359
Speaker 1: money or funds managed by the firm and move it

442
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 1: more into that equity like risk away from investment grade.

443
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:15,680
Speaker 1: Has there been any shift in allocation on the heels

444
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:19,919
Speaker 1: of this, So we've we've added nine million jobs, but

445
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 1: we've still got thirteen million more to add back. The

446
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 1: unemployment rates still ten percent. We we still think it

447
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:28,639
Speaker 1: will take two years to get to two percent inflation.

448
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 1: What where we've been kind of modifying our strategy? Is

449
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 1: it back in March and April? You know, we came

450
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 1: out with this ring the bell moment on March twentieth.

451
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:39,720
Speaker 1: We said that investment grade credit was the cheapest I

452
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 1: had seen it in my career other than once before.

453
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,439
Speaker 1: So we were buying a lot of investment grade credit

454
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 1: in March, April, May. And now what we've done. And

455
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 1: back then, by the way, we were buying healthcare, telecom, cable,

456
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 1: a lot of the non cyclical, a lot of the

457
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 1: defensive credits like technology. Now we actually think the recovery trade,

458
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 1: if it goes through, you could see the travel and

459
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:05,440
Speaker 1: tourism sector pick up airlines, lodging, et cetera. Mark to

460
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 1: get Matthew on you we can do that with a

461
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 1: guy from Chicago. You're calling for the end of the

462
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 1: great moderation, I believe, And then do you follow on

463
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 1: that there is a small or a great agitation that

464
00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 1: follows on? Well, Tom, I think what some people may

465
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:29,440
Speaker 1: be underestimating is these large cap companies have built up

466
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 1: a massive war chest of liquidity. Even if you look

467
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 1: at the deeply affected COVID hit sectors like airlines, hotels,

468
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:40,680
Speaker 1: gaming companies, these companies, Tom have twenty to thirty six

469
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:44,360
Speaker 1: months of liquidity. So any vaccine that comes out over

470
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:47,440
Speaker 1: the next six to twelve months, as businesses consumers start

471
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 1: to travel again, I think you could see a rebound

472
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:53,200
Speaker 1: and I think that's that's the next wave of the rally.

473
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:57,240
Speaker 1: The first wave of the rally was clearly housing and technology.

474
00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:59,919
Speaker 1: But if we get an economic recovery, if this mobile

475
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:02,560
Speaker 1: of the data takes off, you're gonna see the airlines

476
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 1: take off. You're going to see people start to travel

477
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 1: over the next six twelve, eighteen months, and that's I

478
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:10,720
Speaker 1: think the potential next wave of the rally. So Mark

479
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:14,119
Speaker 1: just quickly, here, is this a bet that you're willing

480
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 1: to make now that we are going to get that

481
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:21,679
Speaker 1: gain in airline airline bonds, airline credit as well as

482
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 1: the rest of the travel sector. We do have an

483
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,199
Speaker 1: overweight to that sector. We've done it in what we

484
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:29,760
Speaker 1: consider to be a prudent way, and how we've done

485
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 1: it is we've basically lent to airlines through through secured

486
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:38,360
Speaker 1: uh bonds, which are basically collateralized by very new planes.

487
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:42,520
Speaker 1: We've also lent to some of the strongest lodging companies

488
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:46,199
Speaker 1: out there. I'm talking about companies that are the leaders

489
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 1: in their field, also gaming companies and so yes, we

490
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 1: do think that that sector, which has been beaten down

491
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 1: significantly can bounce back. It's not going to be a

492
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:59,439
Speaker 1: straight line. There's clearly risks. There's risk with the virus,

493
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 1: there's risk with the fiscal So we're doing this eyes

494
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:06,359
Speaker 1: wide open. But assuming we get the mobility data and

495
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:10,320
Speaker 1: travel to eventually come back. Remember we're the t s

496
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 1: A data. We're where we were last year. I'm willing

497
00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:16,159
Speaker 1: to say that by next year will be at fifty.

498
00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 1: So the whole point is to get an improvement. Given

499
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 1: the liquidity these companies have, I think you'll see a

500
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,159
Speaker 1: rebound there. Mark case. This has been wonderful, Thank you

501
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:31,879
Speaker 1: so much. With PIMCO this morning, joining us down David Rubinstein,

502
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:36,159
Speaker 1: co founder, co executive chairman of the Carlisle Group, an

503
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 1: author of a new book, How to Lead, which is

504
00:28:38,840 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 1: a really piercing testament to the quality of his interviews.

505
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 1: I can't say enough about interview to interview the way

506
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 1: that Mr Rubinstein has approached this for Bloomberg. This book

507
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:54,760
Speaker 1: is a triumph of cutting to the chase. There's a

508
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 1: lack of media bladder and an immense amount of direct

509
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 1: questioning of people successful. Mr Rubinstein, I must start with

510
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 1: my favorite interview you've ever done, with the always mysterious

511
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 1: Jeff Bezos. What did you learn from Mr Bezos? Well, Jeff,

512
00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:14,719
Speaker 1: of course, saw is an unusual person. He's built one

513
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 1: of the most valuable companies in the world in a

514
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:18,920
Speaker 1: relatively short period of time. But some of the secrets

515
00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 1: he gave were He makes no decisions before ten am.

516
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 1: He doesn't like to make any decisions too late in

517
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 1: the afternoon. He likes to get eight hours of sleep.

518
00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 1: He thinks that he has less than eight hours of sleep,

519
00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 1: he can't really focus well. He also thinks they has

520
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:35,480
Speaker 1: to listen to people. He wants to make certainty. Here's

521
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 1: ideas from other people, doesn't think all of his ideas

522
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:40,800
Speaker 1: are necessarily the best ones. And I would say relatively

523
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 1: speaking compared to compared to what he's accomplished, is his

524
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 1: demeanor is quite modest, and he has an incredible sense

525
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 1: of humor. David, this is so important, and I say

526
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:53,440
Speaker 1: this with immense respect for your philanthropy to America, particularly

527
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 1: with our historical documents. There has been criticism, including Mark

528
00:29:57,400 --> 00:30:01,760
Speaker 1: Bennioff on Bloomberg the other day, over the philanthropy of

529
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 1: these tech giants. Right now, Bezos is a pinata over

530
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 1: fifteen dollars an hour, twenty dollars an hour, thirty dollars

531
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 1: an hour. Do you advise some of these voices in

532
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 1: your book to get more like David Rubinstein and be

533
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:20,239
Speaker 1: more philanthropic? And that's not what I tried to do

534
00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 1: the interviews. The interviews are done on peer to peer

535
00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg and UH, they're basically an effort to get

536
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:28,840
Speaker 1: people to say what made them successful. And in the book,

537
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:31,360
Speaker 1: I try to talk about the the qualities that make

538
00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:33,920
Speaker 1: people successful and how they become leaders. And that's what

539
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 1: I'm trying to do. I'm not really trying to give

540
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 1: them advice. Privately, I might ask them if they're interested

541
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 1: in certain things, or they might ask me certain things

542
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 1: about philanthropy. Jeff Bezos has given away a fair amount

543
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 1: of money. It's just that compared to his net worth,

544
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 1: it might seem small, but it's staggering amounts of money

545
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 1: so far. David, good morning to you. And you've interviewed

546
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 1: doing Pizza Peg. You've interviewed people from such different backgrounds,

547
00:30:57,280 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 1: such different fields. Is it possible to find a common thread,

548
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 1: to find something that makes all of these people good

549
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:07,480
Speaker 1: leaders regardless of the fielding which they operate. Yes, there

550
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 1: are a couple of qualities I talk about in the book.

551
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:11,920
Speaker 1: One is they have focused early on their career. They're

552
00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 1: focused focused on doing whatever they want to do, approving

553
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 1: an idea or a concept. They have failed at some

554
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:20,960
Speaker 1: point in their life because they recognize that failure probably helps,

555
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 1: and so failure has helped them. They also have persistence.

556
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:27,240
Speaker 1: They're very persistent. They also learned how to persuade other people.

557
00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 1: The key to life and getting people do what you

558
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 1: want is persuading them either by writing or orally, or

559
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:35,760
Speaker 1: by leading by example. Most of them are actually fairly humble. Um,

560
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 1: you know, every leader isn't humble. We know of some

561
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 1: leaders that are not humble, but generally these are people

562
00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:44,400
Speaker 1: that are quite humble. They also keep learning, They re read, read, read,

563
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 1: keep learning more and more. They have a fair amount

564
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 1: of integrity. I would say that's very important to them.

565
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:52,080
Speaker 1: And they also, I think, are people who share the credit.

566
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 1: They don't think that they're the only ones who are

567
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:56,400
Speaker 1: responsible for their success. In the end, most of them

568
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:58,320
Speaker 1: will say they had a lot of luck. Yeah, that's

569
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 1: really interesting too, isn't it. The elements of luck. I mean,

570
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:02,280
Speaker 1: they were all humble. They will humble on TV, David,

571
00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 1: I wonder what they say to you behind the scenes.

572
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 1: But you lead a business of course yourself, and so

573
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 1: what what have you identified about your own leadership journey

574
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 1: by doing this series of interviews. Well, I think in

575
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:16,960
Speaker 1: my own case, I got lucky. I I really wasn't

576
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:18,640
Speaker 1: supposed to be a business person. I thought I was

577
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 1: a lawyer. I changed, I got lucky. I failed many times.

578
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 1: I learned from that. I do think that sharing the

579
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 1: credit it's very important. And I also think one thing

580
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 1: I didn't mention just mone Ago is rising to the occasion.

581
00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 1: Leaders have to rise to the occasion. It's okay to

582
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:36,760
Speaker 1: run a company on the normal times when something bad happens,

583
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 1: like a pandemic. If you can rise to the occasion,

584
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:41,880
Speaker 1: you're more likely than not to be a really great leader.

585
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 1: David Rubinstein, I need to go back to your public

586
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 1: service to the nation. You served with President Carter long

587
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 1: ago in far away their echoes this morning of the

588
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 1: sixties and seventies, stated by economists, is our central bank

589
00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 1: recalibrates how they will try to reflate the economy to

590
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:07,480
Speaker 1: provide for economic growth. You lived with the Carter administration

591
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 1: very high inflation. Do we risk echoes or shadows of

592
00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:16,600
Speaker 1: that time? If we could get inflation to two or

593
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 1: three or four percent, it wouldn't be the worst thing

594
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 1: in the world. We had double digit inflation. And the

595
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 1: difference was then the U. S economy was relatively um separate.

596
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 1: We didn't have enormous amounts of low income products coming

597
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 1: in from China. It was an economy where the workforce

598
00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 1: was unionized. Well, that's not a bad thing. I would

599
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 1: just say that today you've got less than ten percent unionized,

600
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:40,440
Speaker 1: and so the pressure from wages isn't as great as

601
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 1: it used to be. And then you've got the outside

602
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 1: world producing products and services at much lower prices than

603
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 1: we can in the United States, so that's kept inflation

604
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 1: down a great deal. I don't think the situation is

605
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 1: replicable then if we see an atomization of the labor

606
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 1: force witness Senator Paul of Kentucky last night accosted on

607
00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:02,160
Speaker 1: the streets of Washington with echoes of nineteen to eight, etcetera, etcetera.

608
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:06,760
Speaker 1: How would you suggest, Mr Rubenstein, that the elites provide

609
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 1: the labor economy that this nation screams for. What's the

610
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:15,960
Speaker 1: best path? Well? I do think that UH companies that

611
00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 1: have employed lots of workers should be sensitive to their

612
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:23,280
Speaker 1: needs and we should pay them a a respectable wage,

613
00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 1: plus side benefits. Healthcare benefits are extremely important for people,

614
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 1: and not all employers provide them. But I think we

615
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:32,759
Speaker 1: should recognize the dignity of basic workers, and in some

616
00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:35,799
Speaker 1: cases that is over overlooked. But in the whole, I

617
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 1: don't see the situation where we're gonna get let massive inflation.

618
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 1: Inflation would actually probably help us a bit and paying

619
00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:44,319
Speaker 1: down some of our enormous debt, but I don't see

620
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:46,480
Speaker 1: that happening. If the FED could get two percent or

621
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 1: three percent inflation. I think they'd be quite happy with that.

622
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 1: Useful to have you on the program, David having written

623
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:55,239
Speaker 1: a book all about leadership, on the day that we

624
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:58,000
Speaker 1: find out that Japan is looking for a new leader.

625
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 1: I don't know if you ever mention Zo Abe or

626
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 1: the pleasure of spending much time with him, but he

627
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 1: certainly managed to last a long time for a Japanese

628
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:08,239
Speaker 1: prime minister. Certainly the ones who came before him. There

629
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 1: was sort of a revolving door in terms of the

630
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:13,640
Speaker 1: politicians that you have met and have talked to and

631
00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 1: that has stayed the course. Do they have something special

632
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 1: that you note? Yes, Um, I have met Prime Minister Abbey.

633
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,279
Speaker 1: He served quite well for eight years. I spent some

634
00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 1: time one time in his office talking about the value

635
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:27,399
Speaker 1: of private equity to the Japanese economy. I'm not sure

636
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:30,320
Speaker 1: that that persuaded him of the value of private equity,

637
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:31,800
Speaker 1: but I have spent some time, and I think he

638
00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 1: did a very good job. It's unfortunately needs to step

639
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 1: down now. UM. I think politicians are different than business leaders.

640
00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 1: They obviously have different considerations. I did have an interview

641
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:42,840
Speaker 1: in the book of President Bush and President Clinton together

642
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 1: President Bush forty uh forty three and President Clinton and

643
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 1: it's quite humorous and how they get along and have

644
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:51,840
Speaker 1: a pretty pretty good relationship. Politicians don't have much different

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Speaker 1: considerations and business people. It's much harder to be a

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Speaker 1: political leader and survived than to be a business leader

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Speaker 1: and survive. In my view, what's been your favorite inner view? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think it's like asking which of my children I

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Speaker 1: like the best. But my favorite person to be interviewed

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Speaker 1: by is Tom you. Um. But aside from that, the

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Speaker 1: persons I've interviewed, I think the Jeff Bezos interview was extraordinary.

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Speaker 1: He had quite a sense of humor. We had two

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Speaker 1: thousand people there. He was he was really great. Oprah

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Speaker 1: was terrific. I mean she really doesn't need an interviewer

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Speaker 1: to dring her out. She I mean, she gave a

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Speaker 1: masterclass and how to be interviewed and uh and she

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Speaker 1: said the key to her success has been listening to

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Speaker 1: people when she does interviews. Warren Buffet and Bill Gates

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Speaker 1: were also quick good. Um. So I don't think there

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Speaker 1: was anybody didn't like. A Yo yo mob was great

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Speaker 1: uh um. Ruth Bader Ginsburgh had an incredible crowd of

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Speaker 1: people cheering for her, A real rock star. David, what's

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Speaker 1: your I got one final question before you you turn

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Speaker 1: me off? What's your first question to President Trump? And

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Speaker 1: appear to peer interview with Donald Trump? I have interviewed

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Speaker 1: him before before he was president, and I told me

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Speaker 1: he was going to run for president. I I was surprised.

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Speaker 1: I didn't think he was really gonna do it, but

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Speaker 1: he did. If I interviewed them today, I would say

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Speaker 1: in the end, what surprised you about the presidency? Did

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Speaker 1: you anticipate it would be as hard as it was

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00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:08,239
Speaker 1: or do you think it's easier than you thought it was?

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Speaker 1: And why do you really want to do this for

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Speaker 1: another four years? Because it can really tax you and

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00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:14,840
Speaker 1: you can do so many other things. What is it

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Speaker 1: that you want to do in the next four years

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Speaker 1: that you haven't done in the first four years? David Rubinstein,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much and congratulations on But for Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: We stumbled into this with Mr Rubinstein, and this has

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Speaker 1: been a massive success, a massive win for uh Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: The peer to peer conversations of Mr Rubinstein How to

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Speaker 1: Lead is a new effort here in these books and again,

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00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 1: as David Rubinstein said their folks. If you got to

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Speaker 1: pick one interview of the Jeff Bezos interview is just magical.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and

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00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:52,200
Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast

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00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:56,480
Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before

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00:37:56,520 --> 00:38:00,360
Speaker 1: the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Boomberg

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Speaker 1: Radio