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Speaker 1: Welcome and everybody to betting pros. Is time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets as me Joey Pa Joe pis Apia and

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Speaker 1: this is bp NFL. It's week eight. It's time to

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Speaker 1: dig deep, go behind enemy lines, so to speak with

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Speaker 1: our good friend, the data scientist Sam Hoppin to make

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Speaker 1: sure we get the right numbers, the right trends, and

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Speaker 1: keep an eye on those lines as we move through

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Speaker 1: Week eight. Here, Sam, a lot of injuries continue to

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Speaker 1: pile up and certainly are going to affect a lot

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Speaker 1: of things. And before we even dive in to anything

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Speaker 1: else that was on the agenda, I think we got

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Speaker 1: to talk about the injuries from last night's Monday night

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Speaker 1: football game for the Buccaneers. Chris Godwin devastating injury out

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Speaker 1: for the year most likely. You know, we're still waiting

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Speaker 1: on the official official word, but I think we know

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Speaker 1: where things are going. And then Mike Evins with the

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Speaker 1: hamstring injury. So all of a sudden, Tampa Bay is

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Speaker 1: in a tough spot. Did that game last night, between

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Speaker 1: the loss and the injuries, possibly cost them the division

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Speaker 1: As we look right now, the division is set at

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Speaker 1: Atlanta minus one eighty in most markets, Tampa Bay plus

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Speaker 1: one seventy five. Is this Atlanta basically now having an

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Speaker 1: opportunity to pull away with all of those weapons now

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Speaker 1: missing for quite some time potentially for the Buccaneers.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Atlanta's certainly in the driver's seat here. They have

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Speaker 2: a game against each other this upcoming week, so that'll

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Speaker 2: be a huge factor. The Falcons have already beaten the

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Speaker 2: Bucks a couple of weeks ago, so if they go

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Speaker 2: up to zero against them in the season long series,

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Speaker 2: then that will go a long way, especially in a

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Speaker 2: tie breaker. But the Falcons, I'm looking at impredictable here,

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Speaker 2: which I've mentioned a couple of times on the show

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Speaker 2: so far this year. They look at betting lines out

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Speaker 2: to the future to generate power ratings, and according to them,

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Speaker 2: Atlanta has the thirty first hardest strength of schedule, so

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Speaker 2: the second easiest. Now, I will say the team at

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Speaker 2: thirty two is the New Orleans Saints, who are twenty

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Speaker 2: to one to win the division. They're only two games back.

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Speaker 2: They have a game to the Falcons already, but they

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Speaker 2: do play again in week eighteen. We're gonna talk about

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Speaker 2: the Saints in a little bit, but it seems like

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Speaker 2: they're getting healthier on offense could potentially get Derek Carr

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Speaker 2: back this week again, being only two games back. Like,

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Speaker 2: I don't think I love the Falcons so much that

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Speaker 2: it's theirs, you know, for the tip, you know by default. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: they're certainly in the driver's seat, like I said, But

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Speaker 2: we've still got over half a season left. There's there's

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Speaker 2: a lot that can.

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Speaker 1: Change, so luckily, and there's a lot more to bet on,

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Speaker 1: and we're gonna get to some of the lines of

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Speaker 1: the week. Before we get to those lines, don't forget

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Speaker 1: assigned Michael's straighthand jersey giveaway. It's still going on. If

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Speaker 1: to get this sign Michael Strahan giants jersey for free

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Speaker 1: courtesy of our good pals over at Christine Auction dot com.

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Speaker 1: All you need to do is head over to Betting

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Speaker 1: Pros dot com slash contest, complete the form and either

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Speaker 1: download the Betting Pros app, leave a view of the

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros podcast, or subscribe to our social media channels

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Speaker 1: at Betting Pros on X, on TikTok and at Betting

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Speaker 1: Pro's NFL on the IG. The more actions you complete,

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Speaker 1: the more entries you receive, so go ahead and get

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Speaker 1: it done. And remember we'll announcing the winner right here

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Speaker 1: on the channel, So make sure you subscribe to the

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Speaker 1: YouTube and ring that bell to the goes ding for

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Speaker 1: notification so you know if you are the big winner

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Speaker 1: of the Michael Strahan jersey, big old Michael Straighthan. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's talk about the lines and potential movement here. Let's

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Speaker 1: start with the Cardinals and Dolphins. Now, the Tua expectation

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Speaker 1: is that he plays. What does that do potentially to

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Speaker 1: this line once we get official word and is now

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Speaker 1: the best time to be betting on it or do

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Speaker 1: you want to wait?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I do think the early line is indicating that

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Speaker 2: he will play. The Cardinals opened as excuse me, the

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Speaker 2: Dolphins opened as three point favorites against the Cardinals. That's

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Speaker 2: moved out to Dolphins by three and a half in

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Speaker 2: some places. He's expected to start practicing on Wednesday, and

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Speaker 2: according to McDaniel's concussion clearance, won't comment till after he

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Speaker 2: gets some activity in. But I think the time to

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Speaker 2: bet it is now. The Cardinals are in a pretty

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Speaker 2: bad situation overall, the coming off of a short week,

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Speaker 2: having just played on Monday night football. They are traveling,

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Speaker 2: traveling cross country to Miami and playing in the early slot.

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Speaker 2: And again West Coast teams playing in that early slot

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Speaker 2: is not ideal. Uh. The Cardinals also had Sean Murphrey bunting.

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Speaker 2: They're they're going to back leave Monday's game early against

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Speaker 2: the Chargers with a neck injury. So again, if if

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Speaker 2: you believe that to what's going to play, now is

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Speaker 2: the time to bet it. I don't know that the

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Speaker 2: line changes that much. If he you know, is deemed

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Speaker 2: active and playing, it would obviously shift a lot towards

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Speaker 2: the Cardinals if he's wild in active. But I think

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Speaker 2: if you're you're in on to a playing, then now

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Speaker 2: is the time to bet it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, boy kaa Arizona came out with a W. That's

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Speaker 1: that's a very winnable game for the Chargers yesterday. You

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Speaker 1: know that's a difference here. Yeah, it's true. To stop

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Speaker 1: me if you heard this, folks. Very frustrating. So now

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Speaker 1: the Chargers are five hundred, they're going to be at

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Speaker 1: home this time and facing the Saints. Now we don't

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Speaker 1: know if Derek Carr is gonna play, So a lot

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Speaker 1: of this line movement and don't forget. You could set

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Speaker 1: the line alerts over on the BP app, download the

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Speaker 1: VP app. Set the line alerts so you know when

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Speaker 1: this movement happens. In case you want to go bet it,

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Speaker 1: you know when you have more clarity of what's going on.

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Speaker 1: You can find the best spot too. And one you

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Speaker 1: download the app too, don't forget FP free put that

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Speaker 1: code in. You get thirty three days of the premium

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Speaker 1: tools right now. So if you've never downloaded the app,

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Speaker 1: you just watch the shows, this is the time to

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Speaker 1: do it. Use the premium tools again FP free. That's

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Speaker 1: the code we're doing. But back to the Chargers and

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Speaker 1: Saints right now. Derek Carr trying to get back sooner

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Speaker 1: than later here the Olave injury, the Shaheed injury. I mean,

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Speaker 1: his team is basically, you know, had the worst luck

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Speaker 1: over a three weeks they could possibly imagine after a

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Speaker 1: really good start to the year where all of a

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Speaker 1: sudden there was optimism. So is there room to be

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Speaker 1: optimism again or optimistic I should say again for this

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Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints team. Here if Derek Carr can get

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Speaker 1: back on track, or are the Chargers now after this

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Speaker 1: Los is going to be too tough to handle.

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Speaker 2: I do think so. The a buddy of min Drew

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Speaker 2: Denzik has coined the term the widows Maker spot for

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Speaker 2: the Chargers because they are coming off of a short

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Speaker 2: week having played on Monday Night Football, and the Saints

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Speaker 2: are coming off of extended rest having played on Thursday

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Speaker 2: Night Football the week before, so there's certainly that going

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Speaker 2: in favor of the Saints. It seems like New Orleans

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Speaker 2: could get both Chris Olave and Taysom Hill back, which

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Speaker 2: even if Carr is not starting, would be huge for

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Speaker 2: that offense where she'd obviously unfortunately out for the season.

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Speaker 2: And and it sounds like Derek Carr is again going

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Speaker 2: to be having some throwing sessions earlier this week to

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Speaker 2: test out where he's at with the injury. If he

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Speaker 2: can't go, then it will be Spencer Rattler. But this

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Speaker 2: line open with the Chargers as six and a half

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Speaker 2: point favorites. We've seen that cross the key number in

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Speaker 2: seven and go out to the Chargers favored by seven

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Speaker 2: and a half. So I do think that that seven

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Speaker 2: and a half is a lot for a Chargers team

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Speaker 2: that plays slow. They are passing a little bit more,

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Speaker 2: which is something to keep keep an eye on. But

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Speaker 2: they play slow. The defense is pretty good, but they

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Speaker 2: just don't have the explosivity on offense and aren't able

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Speaker 2: to end the drives really with touchdowns at this point.

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Speaker 2: So on the negative injury front for the Saints, marsha

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Speaker 2: On Latimore left Thursday Night Football with a hamstring injury.

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Speaker 2: He's expected to be fine, but they're left guard Nick

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Speaker 2: Saladavari is week to week that offensive line continues to

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Speaker 2: shift players around and around like a carousel and just

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Speaker 2: filtering guys in and out. So I do again think

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Speaker 2: the Saints could be in a position if they certainly

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Speaker 2: if they get car back, but even without him to

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Speaker 2: potentially cover that seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: All Right, there's a theme here obviously in this segment

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Speaker 1: of the show, because the next game we're going to

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Speaker 1: talk about is the Washington Commanders, and we know the

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Speaker 1: health of Jayde Daniels is a little questionable right now.

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Speaker 1: We had the rib injury. Now luckily no fracture there,

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Speaker 1: so that's a good thing. Big game this week with

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Speaker 1: the Bears coming off thereby, so they were in London

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Speaker 1: then on the bye, a little bit of extra time here.

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Speaker 1: Kayleb Williams coming off his best performance, probably hearing a

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Speaker 1: lot of noise about Jaydan Daniels has been the rookie

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Speaker 1: of the year and Kayleb Williams, you know, saying, hey,

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Speaker 1: what about me? I'm still here and there's still, as

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Speaker 1: you pointed out, Sam, half a season left to go.

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Speaker 1: So let's talk about the impact of the Jaydan Daniels

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Speaker 1: elthon this game, what it might mean to the line

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Speaker 1: and also what the last time you saw the Bears

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Speaker 1: offense out there looking pretty solid, cold, commit, really working

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Speaker 1: himself in. You've got everybody you know on that wide

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Speaker 1: receiver group finally healthy. So that's a big push here

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Speaker 1: right now for Kayleb Williams. This is a big moment.

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Speaker 1: The two rookies, the number one and number two overall pick,

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Speaker 1: going head to head in this game. So what are

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Speaker 1: you looking for with the lines here? Is this the

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Speaker 1: time to benet or again? Do we want more clarity

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Speaker 1: before we go into this one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm I'm willing to wait right now. This this

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Speaker 2: game open with Washington is one and a half point

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Speaker 2: favorites shifted to Chicago's one and a half point favorites

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Speaker 2: on Sunday night. Now it's out of Chicago by two

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Speaker 2: and a half. On the news of Jaden Daniels' health. Again,

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Speaker 2: his status remains uncertain. He's considered a week tw week

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Speaker 2: as of Monday, dan Quinn saying they're hopeful he can

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Speaker 2: play on Sunday afternoon. Obviously the NFL hopeful he can

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Speaker 2: play too, with the number one two overall picks playing

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Speaker 2: in the late afternoon. But I do think the Commanders

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Speaker 2: will sort of hold this injury information a little close

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Speaker 2: to their best throughout the week, play it again day

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Speaker 2: by day, not really give an indication until you know

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Speaker 2: Friday Saturday is to whether he's going to play. So

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Speaker 2: if you do, I personally would prefer to wait to

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Speaker 2: bet on the Commanders, specifically until I hear about Jayden

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Speaker 2: Daniels and whether he's going to play, because I only

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Speaker 2: want to bet on them if he is going to play,

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Speaker 2: and I'm not worried about laying, you know, one and

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Speaker 2: a half points if the line does shift back out

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Speaker 2: to that with Daniels playing the other Another notable thing

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Speaker 2: for the Commanders, they're left tackle Brandon Coleman is in

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Speaker 2: concussion protocol, so we'll see whether he's able to go,

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Speaker 2: and the Bear secondary has a lot of questionable tags

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Speaker 2: right now as well. Tyree Stevenson and Takwan Brisker didn't

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Speaker 2: play in their game in London. Kylie Gordon left the

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Speaker 2: London game early with an injury, so again, this will

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Speaker 2: be probably the Commander's most difficult defensive test so far

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Speaker 2: this year, going against Chicago. But if Chicago's down a

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Speaker 2: couple of those key players and Daniels is playing, then

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Speaker 2: I really like the Commanders.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's move on here to look into the future.

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Speaker 1: Were already kind of touched on some division futures earlier

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Speaker 1: look at the future here. Let's talk about the next

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Speaker 1: thing on the docket, which is the offensive Rookie of

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Speaker 1: the year, which is a perfect time considering this head

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Speaker 1: to head matchup that we're going to get now on

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Speaker 1: most boards, as you're looking at Rookie of the year,

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Speaker 1: the beginning of the season, we had Caleb Williams in

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Speaker 1: the heavy favorite, Marvin Harris was in that two spot,

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Speaker 1: Daniel's in the three of plus six fifty. We were

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Speaker 1: very much on Jade Daniels and the plus six fifty

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Speaker 1: as the best value that looked really good. Now we're

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Speaker 1: in sort of a different vein here into week eight.

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Speaker 1: Jane Daniels minus one to fifteen. He's the leader. Caleb

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Speaker 1: Williams of plus one hundred, Malik neighbors the distant number

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Speaker 1: three a plus sixteen one hundred coming off a couple

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Speaker 1: missed weeks in the down performance last week. But it

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Speaker 1: really does feel like a two horse race between the

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Speaker 1: two qbs, so with what we've seen so far and

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Speaker 1: maybe what we're projecting into the future, or how do

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Speaker 1: you see this race at the current state it is, Sam.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I do think it is obviously, like you mentioned

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Speaker 2: a two horse race here with Daniels and Williams playing,

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Speaker 2: But you know, I think I think I mentioned it

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Speaker 2: on this show. Like the way Jayden Daniels plays it

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Speaker 2: sort of seemed like he was asking to get hurt.

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Speaker 2: So even if you know he does come back only

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Speaker 2: potentially misses one game, I you know, I think there's

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Speaker 2: a higher risk of him potentially getting injured again, to

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Speaker 2: the point where I'm not laying into this minus one

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Speaker 2: point fifteen for Jade Daniels, where I do think there

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Speaker 2: might be a slight bit of value, and if for

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Speaker 2: some reason Jaydeen Daniels goes down, I think Williams would

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Speaker 2: move to like a minus five hundred favorite, assuming things

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Speaker 2: continue to play play out. But I do think Brian

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Speaker 2: Thomas Junior is worth a bit of a peak. I

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Speaker 2: do think he should be favored over maleak neighbors. At

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Speaker 2: this point, he leads all rookie wide receivers in receiving yards.

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Speaker 2: He's also the first player with five hundred receiving yards

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Speaker 2: on thirty or fewer receptions through seven career games since

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Speaker 2: Randy Moss in nineteen eighty eight. He is first in

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Speaker 2: yards after the catch among rookie wide receivers, first in

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Speaker 2: yards per route run, tied for first with touchdowns. He

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Speaker 2: is having a phenomenal season, and I think it's going

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Speaker 2: under the radar because of the sort of stink on

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Speaker 2: the Jaguars as a whole. And if I were to

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Speaker 2: want to bet on a guy catching passes from Trevor

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Speaker 2: Lawrence or Trevor catching passes from Daniel Jones, give me

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Speaker 2: the guy with Trevor Lawrence. So again, this is a

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Speaker 2: long shot. I think he's twenty five to one right

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Speaker 2: now in the across the market, so certainly not something

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Speaker 2: you expect to win. But again, if he continues to

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Speaker 2: have some historical outputs like this, continues to score, it's

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Speaker 2: going to be difficult. Because Puka Nakua had a historical

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Speaker 2: season last year and still did not win the awards,

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Speaker 2: so again, something to put a little lunch money on.

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Speaker 2: I think at this point, I think there's just a

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Speaker 2: little bit of a mispricing in the market with him

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Speaker 2: being behind neighbors.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, certainly makes no sense to me. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: go on to the stats that everybody needs to pay

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Speaker 1: attention to for this week, and let's talk with your

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Speaker 1: Packers here and not the Packers offense, which is usually

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Speaker 1: the more fun thing to talk about. So let's talk

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Speaker 1: about the defense and what the numbers bear out when

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Speaker 1: it comes to the pack And look, they've been really

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Speaker 1: good at greating turnovers. But is that enough, Sam.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we're going to talk about a couple of defenses today.

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Speaker 2: This past week, the Packers had probably I think their

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Speaker 2: best defensive performance of the season, and that's mainly because

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Speaker 2: they did not force a turnover and they still held

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Speaker 2: the Texans to twenty two points. They set season high

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Speaker 2: marks in pressure rate at forty nine percent EPA per

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Speaker 2: dropback allowed, and allowed just fifty five net passing yards

305
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Speaker 2: to the Texans. Again, they're doing this. They did this

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Speaker 2: against a Texans offense that I think the public thinks

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Speaker 2: should be good. But they really haven't been all year.

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Speaker 2: On early downs this season, the Texans are twenty fourth

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Speaker 2: in pass rate, twenty fifth in EPA per play, and

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Speaker 2: thirtieth in success rate. But when they do throw the ball,

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Speaker 2: so they're running the ball a ton on early downs,

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Speaker 2: which is not great. When they do pass the ball,

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Speaker 2: there's still twenty fifth in EPA per play and twenty

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Speaker 2: six in success rate on early downs. So this Texans

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Speaker 2: offense is and should be massively downgraded from what we

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Speaker 2: thought they were entering the Seeds in The Packers are

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Speaker 2: now visiting a Jacksonville defense, excuse me, a Jacksonville team

318
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Speaker 2: that certainly has not been consistent on offense, but I

319
00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:13,600
Speaker 2: think could have some success against the Packers. I'm sort

320
00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:18,919
Speaker 2: of selling high on this Packers' defensive output against the Texans,

321
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Speaker 2: knowing that the offense that they were going up against

322
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Speaker 2: wasn't that great. So over the last four games, the

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00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:28,600
Speaker 2: Jaguars offense has ranked fifth in EPA per play, sixth

324
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Speaker 2: in EPA per drive, their top eight in passing, EPA

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Speaker 2: per play and success rate. They're allowing the fourth lowest

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Speaker 2: pressure rate. Now, the health status of their left tackle

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Speaker 2: Cam Robinson is key there, but I think where I

328
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Speaker 2: want to attack this specifically is with the Jaguars team

329
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Speaker 2: total rather than the spread, because I don't think the

330
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Speaker 2: Jaguars defense can really plug many holes at this point,

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Speaker 2: so think that this could be a high scoring game

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Speaker 2: and like the Jaguars team total. We'll see where that's at.

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Speaker 1: Now, are you alluded to talking about defense as let's

334
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Speaker 1: talk more about the Seattle Seahawks defense. Certainly want to

335
00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:09,720
Speaker 1: look pretty good to open the season, but again, lesser

336
00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:12,919
Speaker 1: opponents can sometimes make a lesser defense look well a

337
00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:15,840
Speaker 1: little bit more. So far, that's not been the case

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Speaker 1: when the competition's been stepped up. First few weeks were good,

339
00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:20,680
Speaker 1: last few weeks not so good. Break down the tail

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Speaker 1: of the tape when it comes to the Seahawks defense

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Speaker 1: and what basically the splits look like.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so in weeks one through three they had they

343
00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:32,760
Speaker 2: were allowing negative point two point eight EPA per play,

344
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Speaker 2: that was second best in the league. From weeks four

345
00:18:36,080 --> 00:18:39,399
Speaker 2: to seven, they're allowing point one four EPA per play,

346
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Speaker 2: which is fourth worst. So the last four weeks, their

347
00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:46,919
Speaker 2: early down EPA per play and success right are the

348
00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:50,359
Speaker 2: worst in the league over that span. And again there

349
00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:52,159
Speaker 2: are a couple of reasons for this. First, like you

350
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Speaker 2: mentioned the strength of schedule. In the first three weeks,

351
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Speaker 2: they've played Denver, New England and the first game without

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Speaker 2: two four Miami. In the last four games, they've played Detroit,

353
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Speaker 2: the Giants, the forty nine Ers, and the Falcons, and

354
00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:09,600
Speaker 2: so the competition in terms of the offenses there facing

355
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:13,399
Speaker 2: certainly a step up from what they did early. Another

356
00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:16,040
Speaker 2: part of it is just the injuries that they've had

357
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Speaker 2: over the last several weeks. Reek Wollen has missed the

358
00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:21,159
Speaker 2: last couple of games. Rare Shawn Jenkins is on IR

359
00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:24,239
Speaker 2: and didn't play last week, Trey Brown didn't play, and

360
00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:27,600
Speaker 2: then in the front seven, boy A Mafy we missed

361
00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:32,000
Speaker 2: weeks four to five, whichnnon Uosa hasn't really played at all.

362
00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:34,840
Speaker 2: Byron Murphy and Jerome Baker missed a couple of games.

363
00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:38,920
Speaker 2: So again, with a lot of shifting pieces on top

364
00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:43,280
Speaker 2: of increased competition, it's a compounding effect here that we've

365
00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:46,959
Speaker 2: seen from the Seahawks. And again you look at their

366
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:49,760
Speaker 2: season long numbers, they're like sixteenth in EP per play

367
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Speaker 2: a lot and that doesn't tell the whole story here.

368
00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:57,360
Speaker 2: So I do think that they are probably at full

369
00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:03,040
Speaker 2: strength closer to the twenty to twenty three range in

370
00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:07,320
Speaker 2: terms of defense, because I trust Mike McDonald quite a

371
00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:12,199
Speaker 2: bit with his scheming and pressures. So it's just something

372
00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:15,160
Speaker 2: to keep in mind again, why you want to look

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Speaker 2: at recent stuff for the NFL for sure. Again, we

374
00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:21,080
Speaker 2: already have a small sample size in the NFL, which

375
00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:25,400
Speaker 2: makes it difficult, But there are instances where it really

376
00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:27,239
Speaker 2: makes sense to focus on those, and I think this

377
00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:27,880
Speaker 2: is one of those.

378
00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:32,320
Speaker 1: Certainly seems like it. Again, Timing is everything in the NFL, right,

379
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:34,760
Speaker 1: so it seems like the Denver Broncos are catching teams

380
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:36,720
Speaker 1: right at the right time more often than not. Lately,

381
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:39,080
Speaker 1: They're not a very impressive offense. I think we can

382
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:41,639
Speaker 1: all agree on that. With bo Nicks, defense has certainly

383
00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:44,879
Speaker 1: done its part, scoring touchdowns, do and everything you can

384
00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:48,600
Speaker 1: possibly imagine this past Thursday. But here we go, Denver

385
00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:52,040
Speaker 1: Broncos get another gift here with the Carolina Panthers. So

386
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Speaker 1: let's talk about this game, what it looks like and

387
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:58,359
Speaker 1: can the Denver Bronco offense once again score enough points

388
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,240
Speaker 1: here to get another W in Week eight?

389
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:04,760
Speaker 2: I think they can. I mean, if they win, they're

390
00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:07,400
Speaker 2: going to be five and three and in a much

391
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:11,679
Speaker 2: better position to make the playoffs, some like the Jets,

392
00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:13,600
Speaker 2: which is kind of crazy if you had told me

393
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 2: that eight weeks into the eight weeks ago, but.

394
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Speaker 1: I might have been able to tell you that. I'm

395
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Speaker 1: just saying it.

396
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Speaker 2: Yeah, But anyway, the Panthers defense ranks dead last in

397
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:28,359
Speaker 2: every major efficiency metric. They just allowed forty points to

398
00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:31,480
Speaker 2: a Commander's team that was led by Marcus Mariota for

399
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 2: most of the game. They're again not really even fielding

400
00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:40,239
Speaker 2: a real defense at this point. Like it's that some

401
00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:42,879
Speaker 2: of their best players have gone down to injury and

402
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:48,560
Speaker 2: it's just it's not good at all. And Denver with

403
00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:51,600
Speaker 2: bo Nix, is struggling to pass the ball. But I

404
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:55,080
Speaker 2: don't think that matters because They're rushing offense has actually

405
00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:58,040
Speaker 2: been pretty strong lately. Over the last four games. They

406
00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 2: rank sixth in rushing DPA for play, first in rushing

407
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 2: success rate, second in rushing explosive rush rate, and bow

408
00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:10,280
Speaker 2: Knicks is a part of that. I mean, he's very mobile,

409
00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:13,920
Speaker 2: obviously able to move the ball, you know, get out

410
00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:17,560
Speaker 2: of the pocket and scramble when it's needed, which is

411
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:22,520
Speaker 2: probably more than he needs to. But again, at this point,

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Speaker 2: I don't know if I like either side in this game,

413
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:30,119
Speaker 2: because laying seven and a half points with bow knicks

414
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:35,600
Speaker 2: is not very fun to do and.

415
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Speaker 1: It doesn't make you sleep well at night, ye sleeping great.

416
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:43,800
Speaker 2: Expecting the Panthers to cover seven and a half is

417
00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 2: not something I think is going to happen either. So

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Speaker 2: I actually bet the game total under forty three and

419
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 2: a half shortly before this, because I don't think Caroline

420
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:55,400
Speaker 2: is going to be able to move the ball against

421
00:22:55,560 --> 00:23:00,399
Speaker 2: this Broncos defense, which has been incredible so far. This here,

422
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:04,399
Speaker 2: I think the Broncos team total over is probably the

423
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 2: play here if you're going to play anything outside of

424
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:12,359
Speaker 2: that under, because this can very much be like a

425
00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:15,959
Speaker 2: thirty to three game where the Broncos are able to

426
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 2: just move the ball easily but Panthers can't at all.

427
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Speaker 1: Before we get to the Survivor pool pick of the week,

428
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Speaker 1: I have a question for it. You're seeing some big

429
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Speaker 1: spreads here. Usually this is what happens. Right, we get

430
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:27,879
Speaker 1: halfway through the season, we see the teams that are

431
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:31,440
Speaker 1: the haves and the haves nots for a myriad of reasons. Right,

432
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:34,640
Speaker 1: Sometimes it's hell, Sometimes it's personnel. Sometimes it's a combination

433
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 1: of all those things. When you look at some of

434
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 1: the big spreads, and I mean big this week, you're

435
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 1: seeing double digits in a few spots. Is it a

436
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 1: sense of you're just taking them one at a time

437
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 1: or collectively? Are you there yet right now? Where? Yeah,

438
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:49,159
Speaker 1: some of these teams are going to blow out some

439
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:51,720
Speaker 1: of these lesser teams, especially the ones that are traveling.

440
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean there are already a couple teams that

441
00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,160
Speaker 2: are dead at this point, just like throwing the white

442
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 2: flag on the season. Like the Raiders are not trying

443
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 2: to win games. The Titans, I don't think they're trying

444
00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:10,399
Speaker 2: to win. I think, you know, if you are going

445
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 2: to lay the points with some of these heavy favorites,

446
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:18,119
Speaker 2: extending it out to the point where it is like

447
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:22,400
Speaker 2: a massive blowout, like you know, taking the Lions minus

448
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:26,199
Speaker 2: seventeen and a half or something like that, just making

449
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:29,119
Speaker 2: the tail outcome even further and getting a reward a

450
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 2: little bit more for it, I think is the play

451
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:37,159
Speaker 2: with those types of games. I do think, you know,

452
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:41,440
Speaker 2: it's just with the tea with the game then too,

453
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:45,120
Speaker 2: like the Browns and Ravens this week, like that greatly

454
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 2: depends on who's that quarterback for the Browns, because I

455
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:54,359
Speaker 2: think the Browns I think they're going to go with

456
00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:58,720
Speaker 2: dtr if he is healthy. But Jamis Winston like from

457
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:01,400
Speaker 2: a median outcome, probably is about the same as him,

458
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:05,879
Speaker 2: but the tails are much much fatter for for Jamis

459
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:07,679
Speaker 2: just so, especially again.

460
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:09,720
Speaker 1: His history of the garbage time. You know, the one

461
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:11,920
Speaker 1: thing with Winson is you'll make mistakes and then you

462
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:14,239
Speaker 1: know he'll throw ball sixty yards deep. The next thing

463
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:16,920
Speaker 1: you know, that spread is dead. And you know that's

464
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 1: the thing about Winston that's always very dangerous and he's

465
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 1: got a history of doing that to us as better.

466
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:23,440
Speaker 2: So I do think it is very much a case

467
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 2: by case situation understanding what some of these team strengths are.

468
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:31,120
Speaker 2: I mean, there's a team like the Lions, who when

469
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 2: they get ahead, they're going to run the ball and

470
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:35,639
Speaker 2: they're going to have success doing so. So they're not

471
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:38,320
Speaker 2: going to, you know, be having a couple of three

472
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:40,639
Speaker 2: and three and outs late in the game that allow

473
00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:44,120
Speaker 2: the Titans to get a back door cover things like that. Again,

474
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 2: a team like the Ravens is going to be able

475
00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:49,439
Speaker 2: to salt the game away with Derek Henley Henry like

476
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 2: we saw last night. So understanding where these team strengths

477
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:56,880
Speaker 2: are and again whether they're able to sort of shut

478
00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 2: the door on any sort of backdoor cover, I think

479
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 2: is certain something to keep an eye on it and

480
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 2: consider when you are laying the points these heavy favorites.

481
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to our Survivor Pool pick of

482
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:11,240
Speaker 1: the week, Sam, you kind of touched on a little

483
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,480
Speaker 1: bit when we were discussing some of these double digit

484
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:16,880
Speaker 1: lines that we're seeing in the spreads. But you've got

485
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 1: one lined up that you feel pretty confident is going

486
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 1: to get over that mark in a pretty comfortable fashion.

487
00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Detroit Lions. Just they

488
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 2: are probably a top three team. The Titans are probably

489
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:36,639
Speaker 2: a bottom three to five team. There's nothing going well

490
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 2: on offense for the Titans right now. The Titans defense

491
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 2: has played pretty decently. Obviously let up thirty four points

492
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 2: to the Bills this past week, but I think played

493
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:54,160
Speaker 2: a little bit better than that score actually indicated. And

494
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 2: again you look at the way the Lions can win

495
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 2: on offense and having so many weapons. Obviously going to

496
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:08,480
Speaker 2: be without Jamison Williams this week. He's suspended for two games.

497
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:11,439
Speaker 2: But I don't think that really moves the needle that

498
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,400
Speaker 2: much because he's has been like phased out. But he's

499
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 2: certainly not being used as as much as some people

500
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 2: may have hoped. So I think the Lions take care

501
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 2: business and win this game.

502
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 1: All right. There you have it, everybody survivable picks, the stats,

503
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 1: the futures, the line movements. I don't know what more

504
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 1: you need, but if you do need more, download the

505
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:34,600
Speaker 1: Betting Pros app again, subscribe to the channel, and when

506
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:37,119
Speaker 1: you download the VP app again FP three that's a

507
00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:40,720
Speaker 1: promo code thirty three days of the premium tools. You

508
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 1: get the tools for free, and then you get the

509
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Speaker 1: premium tools for free. I mean it sounds like a

510
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 1: pretty good deal to me. So Sam, as always, thanks

511
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 1: for shedding some light with your genius and the stats

512
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 1: and the numbers here on us on week eight and

513
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:54,160
Speaker 1: enlightening us. If you need more enlightenment, quota Bettingpros dot

514
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 1: com to check out all of Sam's work. That'll do

515
00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 1: it for us. But the story of the game goes

516
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 1: on for Sam Hoppin. I'm Joey P. We'll see you

517
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:01,439
Speaker 1: next time. Kids.

518
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you

519
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,200
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521
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:13,560
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522
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