WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 23rd, 2026 0:00:02.360 --> 0:00:06.720 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:15.440 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:18.680 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordert. Join us each day 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.880 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.280 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.919 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:37.120 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We'll begin this out 0:00:37.120 --> 0:00:39.680 with stock sliding as the tech sell off deepens. Judian 0:00:39.680 --> 0:00:42.200 and Manual I've ever core remains constructive writing. We'll remain 0:00:42.280 --> 0:00:45.640 steadfastly bullish, led by a I names and themes. Stocks 0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:48.559 remain on course for seventy seven point fifty, and the 0:00:48.680 --> 0:00:52.680 nine K ballcase is still operational. Julian joins us now 0:00:52.680 --> 0:00:55.279 for more. Julian, good morning, Good Mornings. That's somewhat contrarian 0:00:55.320 --> 0:00:56.480 after the few days we've had. 0:00:56.880 --> 0:00:59.880 Well, first I want to say is, given the sports intra, 0:01:00.160 --> 0:01:03.040 we should start talking about MESSI again, which we were 0:01:03.080 --> 0:01:04.520 doing prior to the time. 0:01:04.560 --> 0:01:07.520 It makes some SI for that a little bit like fine, fine. 0:01:08.120 --> 0:01:11.880 So I liken this to the beginning of the year 0:01:12.440 --> 0:01:17.560 when you started to have the accumulated worries around software 0:01:18.080 --> 0:01:22.479 and the initial concerns around debt, which obviously the debt 0:01:22.520 --> 0:01:26.920 pile has gotten much larger, which earnings are supporting, and 0:01:27.040 --> 0:01:32.360 you got this intense negativity around technology stocks, and we 0:01:32.480 --> 0:01:35.520 felt like we were contrarians coming into the beginning of 0:01:35.560 --> 0:01:39.760 twenty twenty six sticking with the call, and frankly, you know, 0:01:39.920 --> 0:01:44.000 we saw the progression into the most hedged position we 0:01:44.040 --> 0:01:46.759 had ever seen in thirty years at the lows in March, 0:01:47.680 --> 0:01:51.720 and the market isn't hedged to that degree, to be sure, but. 0:01:51.640 --> 0:01:53.120 The skepticism is there. 0:01:53.280 --> 0:01:55.600 And frankly, when you think about it, you're just sort 0:01:55.640 --> 0:01:59.760 of transitioning this wall of worry away from the maligne 0:01:59.800 --> 0:02:04.680 of of high oil and into the potential concerns around 0:02:04.800 --> 0:02:08.600 supply and less transparent monetary. 0:02:08.360 --> 0:02:10.440 So you say, the bill case is operational. Yet we 0:02:10.440 --> 0:02:12.680 started the program by pointing out a couple of names, 0:02:13.040 --> 0:02:15.880 the likes of Microsoft and Meta deep into baar markets. Now, 0:02:16.240 --> 0:02:18.040 can you have nine K on the S and P 0:02:18.400 --> 0:02:22.079 operational so to speak? Without those names participating in any way, 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:22.720 shape or form. 0:02:22.800 --> 0:02:26.680 Mathematically you can't, okay, And when you look at it, 0:02:26.760 --> 0:02:31.240 the chip names, you know, have done a great deal 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:37.280 of the heavy lifting. You will need a refreshed attitude 0:02:37.720 --> 0:02:41.959 towards the mag seven and we think that that comes 0:02:42.000 --> 0:02:44.639 in time. And if you look at it, over the 0:02:44.639 --> 0:02:48.760 course of this bull market, now almost three years old, 0:02:49.200 --> 0:02:53.680 there have been certain periods of time where essentially earnings 0:02:53.720 --> 0:02:56.240 and price have you know, caught up to each other. 0:02:56.560 --> 0:02:59.440 And we think that's one of these periods in these 0:02:59.560 --> 0:03:02.800 larger aimes, and that you will have price start to 0:03:02.840 --> 0:03:03.800 advance once more. 0:03:03.880 --> 0:03:05.720 What will it take for people to have a refreshed 0:03:05.760 --> 0:03:07.680 attitude about the hyperscalers. 0:03:09.480 --> 0:03:12.960 It will likely be a little bit more churn, a 0:03:12.960 --> 0:03:16.960 little bit more volatility, a little bit more negativity, and 0:03:17.000 --> 0:03:18.360 then ultimately. 0:03:18.520 --> 0:03:19.480 The proof of the pudding. 0:03:19.800 --> 0:03:22.240 That was the proof of the pudding that caused this 0:03:22.360 --> 0:03:27.480 furious rally to begin with. In April and May, earnings 0:03:27.919 --> 0:03:29.360 you're going to see good earnings. 0:03:29.520 --> 0:03:32.040 Are we starting to see the beginnings of pushback from 0:03:32.080 --> 0:03:34.400 the adults in the room, the bond investors, saying hold 0:03:34.400 --> 0:03:36.880 on a second, and we're talking about this particularly with SpaceX, 0:03:37.120 --> 0:03:40.120 not necessarily leading off the entire selloff, but not helping 0:03:40.160 --> 0:03:42.760 exactly this company that just ipo'd coming back to mark 0:03:42.760 --> 0:03:45.400 of twenty billion dollars, it's investment grade even though it's 0:03:45.400 --> 0:03:48.440 been burning cash and has a prospect of getting to 0:03:48.480 --> 0:03:51.360 the moon literally and beyond how much is this the 0:03:51.400 --> 0:03:53.080 beginning of something that's important to watch. 0:03:53.240 --> 0:03:57.720 Well, again, this is the point where we will figure 0:03:57.760 --> 0:04:03.160 out how supply and demand interact, because clearly the message is, 0:04:03.280 --> 0:04:07.240 well you iPod and maybe you should have waited at 0:04:07.320 --> 0:04:10.120 least till you got included in the Nasdaq one hundred 0:04:11.760 --> 0:04:17.760 before marketing debt. But here we are, and to us again, 0:04:18.120 --> 0:04:21.200 when you look at the market action, it's just a 0:04:21.520 --> 0:04:26.360 much more significant, volatile churn. And again with that name 0:04:26.400 --> 0:04:31.480 in particular, you're still comfortably above the IPO price. So 0:04:32.240 --> 0:04:34.680 I mean, you know, they may send people to the 0:04:34.720 --> 0:04:37.800 moon and to Mars, but stocks don't go to the 0:04:37.839 --> 0:04:39.720 moon and Mars indefinitely. 0:04:39.760 --> 0:04:41.400 For now, at least we've done another four percent in 0:04:41.440 --> 0:04:44.320 the pre market headline, I'll be talked about small caps 0:04:44.640 --> 0:04:47.200 record highs. What's going on there? The small caps move, 0:04:47.360 --> 0:04:49.160 which is where the air performance has been so fine 0:04:49.200 --> 0:04:49.920 y today. 0:04:50.000 --> 0:04:54.240 So during the course of the entirety of this bull market, 0:04:54.839 --> 0:04:59.400 small caps have been the default short for active managers, 0:05:00.160 --> 0:05:05.440 and that really kind of faded as the year started again, 0:05:05.680 --> 0:05:09.560 partly is a function of the concern around technology that 0:05:09.680 --> 0:05:13.840 started the year, but more preciently about this fact that 0:05:14.279 --> 0:05:17.880 we may be having agitation about where the short end 0:05:18.400 --> 0:05:20.120 of the interest rate curve is going to go. 0:05:20.560 --> 0:05:22.839 But guess what, the long end is. 0:05:22.720 --> 0:05:26.159 Incredibly well anchored around four point fifty and oh, by 0:05:26.240 --> 0:05:30.760 the way, the labor market is it's suggesting, and all 0:05:30.839 --> 0:05:35.000 of those are positives for small caps, as is the 0:05:35.040 --> 0:05:38.160 price of oil. And then last point here is that 0:05:38.240 --> 0:05:43.479 again this tends to be around the Russell rebalance, the 0:05:43.640 --> 0:05:47.000 time where you get your maximum small cap out performance. 0:05:47.240 --> 0:05:50.360 We wouldn't be surprised by a little bit of reversion 0:05:50.760 --> 0:05:51.479 as the third. 0:05:51.360 --> 0:05:54.839 Quarter starts IBM and the pre mar ket by four percent. 0:05:55.279 --> 0:05:57.359 We have a new whale in the tech sector and 0:05:57.400 --> 0:05:59.960 it's the US goverment. How are you thinking about that? 0:06:01.200 --> 0:06:07.120 Well, look again, there's the concept of picking stocks and 0:06:08.320 --> 0:06:11.440 getting national champions, and you've seen it with a number 0:06:11.440 --> 0:06:18.560 of names, you know, very old line US technology names. 0:06:19.000 --> 0:06:19.240 You know. 0:06:20.279 --> 0:06:24.560 In the bigger picture, anointing winners and losers has its 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:29.720 own issues in terms of the government level. But frankly, 0:06:30.160 --> 0:06:34.159 the fact that the government is, as you know, forcefully 0:06:34.240 --> 0:06:38.720 behind the Ai revolution as it is is a positive 0:06:38.839 --> 0:06:40.679 in our mind for investors broadly. 0:06:40.720 --> 0:06:42.640 Well, we see this administration do it with Intel and 0:06:42.680 --> 0:06:46.240 a number of rare earth mineral companies. Do you just 0:06:46.279 --> 0:06:49.040 have a list of potentially the next company the US 0:06:49.120 --> 0:06:51.680 government might take a stake in, and then it's the stock. 0:06:51.560 --> 0:06:52.200 Is off to the moon. 0:06:53.480 --> 0:06:56.119 We did that a number of months ago. I would 0:06:56.120 --> 0:07:01.039 say it was very well received and certainly work. But 0:07:01.160 --> 0:07:05.279 again I think we're far enough along. And again this 0:07:05.400 --> 0:07:08.520 is also part of the investment problem in general, that 0:07:08.560 --> 0:07:11.680 when you look at the major sectors, it's now fifty 0:07:11.720 --> 0:07:13.920 eight percent of the S and P five hundred, the 0:07:13.920 --> 0:07:16.480 top ten stocks forty percent of the S and P 0:07:16.600 --> 0:07:19.520 five hundred. That there is a little bit of psychological 0:07:19.600 --> 0:07:24.160 crowding out in trying to find companies with smaller market caps. 0:07:24.320 --> 0:07:26.520 The heavy hand of the US government. Does it distort 0:07:26.560 --> 0:07:27.040 the market? 0:07:28.920 --> 0:07:32.280 Classical economics would tell you that it does, okay, But 0:07:32.400 --> 0:07:35.760 again I go back to this idea that the bigger 0:07:35.840 --> 0:07:40.840 picture in terms of you know, making sure that the 0:07:41.000 --> 0:07:44.480 US is front foot versus the rest of its global 0:07:44.520 --> 0:07:47.160 competitors in technology is a positive. 0:07:47.280 --> 0:07:49.600 There's also a sense that there's a rolling ball of 0:07:49.680 --> 0:07:52.760 money that is racing to the next corner, the next 0:07:52.800 --> 0:07:55.840 big thing that could potentially take off as this build 0:07:55.880 --> 0:07:58.200 out and tech continues, and that people aren't sure what 0:07:58.240 --> 0:08:00.440 the ultimate goal is with the ultimate form of AI 0:08:00.560 --> 0:08:01.960 is going to take in terms of the way its 0:08:02.000 --> 0:08:05.320 displayed throughout economies. At the same time, it's just racing 0:08:05.400 --> 0:08:07.400 to get there. Whether we see it in eske Heinex 0:08:07.400 --> 0:08:10.320 and Samsung or whether we see it in the semiconductors 0:08:10.600 --> 0:08:13.600 in the United States. How does that destabilize markets? I mean, 0:08:13.640 --> 0:08:15.160 how much is that something that you're watching? 0:08:15.320 --> 0:08:19.000 Well, it just shows you that volatility works both to 0:08:19.040 --> 0:08:22.360 the upside and the downside. And actually for us, this 0:08:22.320 --> 0:08:26.280 is very interesting And the reason we don't think we're 0:08:26.320 --> 0:08:28.960 in a bubble right now is because for the last 0:08:29.040 --> 0:08:32.880 six weeks, clients have been asking how do we hedge AI? 0:08:33.400 --> 0:08:35.600 How do we deal with the fact that the AI 0:08:35.760 --> 0:08:39.800 trade is everything and now dominates emerging markets. It's changed 0:08:39.800 --> 0:08:42.760 the relationship of gold is a hedge. It's changed the 0:08:42.800 --> 0:08:47.319 relationship of bonds as a hedge versus stocks, And our 0:08:47.400 --> 0:08:49.839 answer is, actually, this is a very interesting time. 0:08:50.240 --> 0:08:51.000 On a day to. 0:08:51.000 --> 0:08:54.280 Day basis, there's a larger universe of stocks in the 0:08:54.320 --> 0:08:57.280 S and P five hundred that are moving inversely to 0:08:57.360 --> 0:08:59.440 the S and P day in and day out. We 0:08:59.520 --> 0:09:03.440 call them negative beta names that really act as a 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:05.200 portfolio diversifier. 0:09:05.360 --> 0:09:06.959 People are looking. 0:09:06.760 --> 0:09:10.680 For reasons to hedge yet stay invested. 0:09:11.440 --> 0:09:15.000 Are stocks the best hedge to stocks versus bonds being 0:09:15.040 --> 0:09:16.480 a good hedge to stocks in. 0:09:16.400 --> 0:09:19.920 This environment, well, in an environment where we're concerned about 0:09:20.000 --> 0:09:25.440 higher inflation broadly on a sustained basis, history tells you 0:09:25.520 --> 0:09:26.880 that stocks are the best. 0:09:27.080 --> 0:09:29.120 Can you disrupt those stocks? Where do we find those stocks? 0:09:29.360 --> 0:09:35.480 They are across you know, an entirety of industries. Energy obviously, 0:09:35.920 --> 0:09:40.640 in the narrative of this entire year has basically been 0:09:40.800 --> 0:09:43.920 energy moving inversely to the S and P five hundred. 0:09:44.040 --> 0:09:47.000 But you see it in consumer names, you see it 0:09:47.040 --> 0:09:50.600 in utilities, and of all the strange places you actually 0:09:50.679 --> 0:09:54.240 see it and select financials. In our mind, that is 0:09:54.400 --> 0:09:55.840 definitely different behavior. 0:09:55.920 --> 0:09:56.920 Yeah, what do you make of that? 0:09:56.960 --> 0:09:58.520 The bank's troid because thin were meant to be the 0:09:58.520 --> 0:10:02.760 big beneficiaries of all of this technology. 0:10:03.320 --> 0:10:07.040 I think again what it is is sort of a preference. 0:10:07.120 --> 0:10:10.440 I remember years ago at a different shop, our oil 0:10:10.480 --> 0:10:13.480 analyst said to me, in the midst of a massive 0:10:13.600 --> 0:10:17.200 rally in oil, when are my stocks going to start rallying? 0:10:17.200 --> 0:10:19.600 And I said, they're going to start rallying when they 0:10:19.600 --> 0:10:24.719 start selling technology. Okay, And so when I think of financials, 0:10:25.160 --> 0:10:28.080 that's likely going to be the outcome when we take 0:10:28.120 --> 0:10:31.680 some chip. If you look at yesterday, financials traded very 0:10:31.679 --> 0:10:35.240 well in a negative tech tape, and that's kind of 0:10:35.600 --> 0:10:36.200 the narrative. 0:10:36.640 --> 0:10:40.080 Stay with us multiple index surveilance coming up after this. 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:51.600 Let's talk about a different asset, clous Let's talk about crew. 0:10:51.720 --> 0:10:55.080 The President announcing funds from lifted and rounding and sanctions 0:10:55.120 --> 0:10:57.840 will be put in scrow to be used exclusively to 0:10:57.840 --> 0:10:58.760 buy us goods. 0:10:58.880 --> 0:11:01.800 If the sanctions go out, money is going to be 0:11:01.800 --> 0:11:05.000 put into this country. All that money's coming back and 0:11:05.080 --> 0:11:08.199 the former purchases of food which they desperately needed. Can 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:10.680 you assure that you're radios won't use profits from oil 0:11:10.800 --> 0:11:12.600 sales to rebuild the new Sargy. 0:11:12.679 --> 0:11:14.200 Well, they're not supposed to be doing that. 0:11:14.280 --> 0:11:16.679 So I will say, but they're supposed to use money 0:11:16.679 --> 0:11:18.000 to buy food for their people. 0:11:18.400 --> 0:11:20.800 Roun now has sixty days to sound oil on the 0:11:20.880 --> 0:11:24.920 international market. Crewed this morning seventy seven on Brent, seventy 0:11:24.920 --> 0:11:27.640 three on WTI. Joining us now to discuss the former 0:11:27.679 --> 0:11:32.160 White House senior advisor and partner at TWT Group, Amos Hawkstein. 0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:35.240 Amus will start Broadway. We can get into details. What's 0:11:35.280 --> 0:11:38.640 your reaction been to how this has played out over 0:11:38.679 --> 0:11:39.320 the last week. 0:11:40.640 --> 0:11:47.000 Well, quite remarkable because the MoU in itself is little 0:11:47.000 --> 0:11:49.360 more than really I mean, it's almost like a surrender. 0:11:49.760 --> 0:11:53.200 I mean, if you think about where we started a 0:11:53.200 --> 0:11:55.839 few months ago, and what policy has been for the 0:11:55.920 --> 0:11:58.920 last several decades, and where we are today, we have 0:11:59.000 --> 0:12:03.200 basically said, for sixty days, we are removing massive amounts 0:12:03.200 --> 0:12:09.200 of sanctions off oil, gas and petrochemicals and refined products. 0:12:09.280 --> 0:12:12.040 You can sell it anywhere in dollars, which haven't done 0:12:12.080 --> 0:12:16.520 that in many, many years. They can also get some 0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:20.920 access to unfrozen their own unfrozen assets, you know, six 0:12:20.960 --> 0:12:23.440 to twelve billion dollars depending on which report you here. 0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:27.120 They get other benefits, and all they have to do 0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:29.800 was to open the straits and agree to talk. So 0:12:29.840 --> 0:12:32.440 we haven't actually agreed to anything on the nuclear but 0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:38.360 we have agreed that missile ballistic missile program and support 0:12:38.440 --> 0:12:41.240 for proxy terrorist groups in the region are not on 0:12:41.280 --> 0:12:44.480 the table and not part of the negotiations. And we've 0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:49.520 given them the huge political win of now being the 0:12:49.600 --> 0:12:54.760 decision makers in Lebanon, which is quite astonishing. So this 0:12:54.800 --> 0:12:57.160 is what we've done. We've given them all. This whole 0:12:57.200 --> 0:13:01.319 document is incentives and agreements to give an things with 0:13:01.360 --> 0:13:03.720 the hope that we'll get something out of it at 0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:06.240 some point during the sixty days. And the clip that 0:13:06.280 --> 0:13:08.480 you showed a little bit earlier with the president talking 0:13:08.520 --> 0:13:11.920 about buying food and medicine, I think he's confusing two 0:13:11.920 --> 0:13:14.880 different types of revenues. The food and medicine is really 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:17.319 I think what they're trying to do with the unfrozen 0:13:17.360 --> 0:13:20.679 assets in cutter the six to twelve billion dollars the 0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:23.280 oil revenues. They can sell and do with that revenue 0:13:23.280 --> 0:13:24.239 whatever they want. 0:13:24.360 --> 0:13:26.920 When it comes to that oil revenue, almost where do 0:13:26.960 --> 0:13:28.680 you think your run and crude will be going? Is 0:13:28.679 --> 0:13:32.560 this just legitimize the Chinese buyers or will they actually 0:13:32.559 --> 0:13:33.600 find new customers? 0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:36.280 I assume that. 0:13:36.280 --> 0:13:40.559 At first it will just be the Chinese customers with legitimacy, 0:13:41.080 --> 0:13:46.240 and probably Indian consumers as well, and then the rest 0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:48.840 of the market will wait and see and to see 0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:50.920 how long this lasts. Because the worst thing is you 0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:55.400 unsanction something, the Americans and the Iranians get into some tiff, 0:13:56.360 --> 0:13:59.000 you know, some a few a week from now, three 0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:01.440 weeks from now, five week from now, and suddenly what 0:14:01.520 --> 0:14:04.120 you bought that was unsanctioned is suddenly sanctioned again. So 0:14:04.160 --> 0:14:07.000 I think people will take some time to figure that out, 0:14:07.320 --> 0:14:10.120 except of course, some trading houses that will buy a 0:14:10.120 --> 0:14:13.600 whole bunch of Iranian crude and blend it and then. 0:14:13.559 --> 0:14:15.079 They'll be able to sell wherever they want. 0:14:15.280 --> 0:14:17.760 So I think you're going to see sort of a broadening, 0:14:18.080 --> 0:14:19.640 but it'll be a gradual broadening. 0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:21.160 I know they're not a monolith, but do you have 0:14:21.160 --> 0:14:23.840 an understanding of where the GCC is on this, given 0:14:23.880 --> 0:14:26.760 the fact that it is pretty remarkable, as you said, 0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:29.960 to see this U turn from this administration to allow 0:14:30.040 --> 0:14:32.960 Irani and oil to legally hit the market. We haven't 0:14:33.000 --> 0:14:34.320 seen this in four decades. 0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:38.480 Yeah, this is again. I think that you're right, the 0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:42.920 golf is not a monolith. Clearly the political winner in 0:14:42.960 --> 0:14:46.480 the Golf is Cutter, where they are setting, to some degree, 0:14:46.560 --> 0:14:49.200 setting American policy. They're in charge of American Middle East 0:14:49.240 --> 0:14:53.120 policy right now in quite an extraordinary way. They are 0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:56.320 quite gifted at this, and I think that there are 0:14:56.360 --> 0:14:58.120 others in the Gulf who are looking at this and saying, 0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:01.000 wait a minute, we didn't like, we don't really like 0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:05.160 Cutter foreign policy, and now it's running American foreign policy. 0:15:05.840 --> 0:15:09.600 Iran was a threat to us, the United States convinced 0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:13.960 us to join them in conflict. Now they're emerging stronger 0:15:14.240 --> 0:15:17.640 politically at home, right I mean, you can't imagine anybody 0:15:17.640 --> 0:15:20.720 going out and demonstrating against the regime right now. Help 0:15:20.800 --> 0:15:25.160 is definitely not on the way, and so they're left 0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:29.520 with a neighbor next door that is angry and vengeful 0:15:30.520 --> 0:15:33.560 and is going to be very well funded. And if 0:15:33.600 --> 0:15:36.160 they are very well funded, you're talking about it. If you 0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:39.040 talk about their sales on oil sales alone and petrochemicals, 0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:42.040 you're probably talking about revenues of about a billion a week. 0:15:43.120 --> 0:15:45.880 So those countries in the Gulf are are looking at 0:15:45.880 --> 0:15:47.400 this with great concern, and they're going to have to 0:15:47.400 --> 0:15:51.320 invest in their own defense in the long term, thinking 0:15:51.320 --> 0:15:56.560 that the United States has become extremely short term thinking. 0:15:56.680 --> 0:15:59.160 You know, that's kind of how they view us at 0:15:59.160 --> 0:15:59.520 the moment. 0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:01.680 So we're looking at oil prices because that's what the 0:16:01.720 --> 0:16:04.320 market is looking at, and there are somewhat agnostic, as 0:16:04.360 --> 0:16:07.360 John has mentioned many times about exactly how oil is 0:16:07.400 --> 0:16:11.040 getting from one place to another and the potential geopolitical implications, 0:16:11.040 --> 0:16:13.400 at least in the short term, saying, look, at least 0:16:13.640 --> 0:16:15.960 barrels of oil are going through the strait of removes. 0:16:16.120 --> 0:16:19.240 Do you think that this is an accurate reflection of 0:16:19.280 --> 0:16:22.800 the potential risk of an additional closure? Because if there 0:16:22.880 --> 0:16:25.640 is true control buy orn over the strait of removes, 0:16:26.160 --> 0:16:29.680 should there be a higher premium to potentially offset against 0:16:29.680 --> 0:16:31.360 the risk of something like this happening? 0:16:31.360 --> 0:16:36.360 Again, Look, I think if we were talking about five 0:16:36.440 --> 0:16:38.760 years ago, ten years ago, yes you would talk about 0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:39.840 risk premiums and so on. 0:16:39.920 --> 0:16:41.400 But the market at the moment is. 0:16:41.400 --> 0:16:43.600 Basically saying, I have a lot of news that I 0:16:43.640 --> 0:16:45.800 want to look at on the tech side, how much 0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:48.720 CAPEX is coming in on AI and data centers and 0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:54.040 blockbuster IPOs and space. That's what I want to focus on. 0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:55.760 So energy really is judge. 0:16:55.520 --> 0:16:55.880 Us do I have? 0:16:56.280 --> 0:16:57.920 Is this something that's going to drag me down or not? 0:16:58.120 --> 0:16:59.760 If it's not going to drag me down, I don't 0:16:59.760 --> 0:17:01.680 want to talk about it. Everything is fine. I don't 0:17:01.680 --> 0:17:04.680 want to hear people tell me about risk premiums. And 0:17:05.040 --> 0:17:07.480 so that's where we are reality wise in the market. 0:17:07.720 --> 0:17:10.679 Do we have a risk in of course, because the 0:17:10.720 --> 0:17:13.040 one thing that's come out of this conflict is Iran. 0:17:13.119 --> 0:17:14.879 As I said on your show a few weeks ago 0:17:15.359 --> 0:17:18.199 before this agreement, No matter how this war ends, no 0:17:18.240 --> 0:17:21.160 matter what agreement we reach, Iran sees it as they 0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:24.000 control the Straits, and control of the straits does not 0:17:24.080 --> 0:17:27.760 necessarily mean a toll. It could just as well mean 0:17:28.160 --> 0:17:30.960 I decide that tankers need to give me forty eight 0:17:30.960 --> 0:17:32.919 hours notice. I can decide that I don't like a 0:17:32.920 --> 0:17:35.840 certain company. Your tankers are not going through those kinds 0:17:35.840 --> 0:17:37.680 of things. So yes, there's a risk, but I don't 0:17:37.680 --> 0:17:39.280 think the market is there to look at it. 0:17:39.520 --> 0:17:40.560 The second piece of that. 0:17:40.600 --> 0:17:44.359 Is, while oil prices are coming down, there's still you know, 0:17:44.480 --> 0:17:47.959 Brent's still at seventy seven, WTI at seventy three in 0:17:48.040 --> 0:17:51.440 December of this you know, this past year of December January, 0:17:51.480 --> 0:17:54.520 before the winds of war started blowing, we were at 0:17:54.560 --> 0:17:56.480 fifty six to sixty dollars. 0:17:56.720 --> 0:17:58.080 So we're still. 0:17:58.280 --> 0:18:01.800 Trading at a significant premium to where we were before 0:18:01.840 --> 0:18:04.720 the wins of war in December. So I think if 0:18:04.760 --> 0:18:07.399 the prices start coming down further, which I think they will, 0:18:07.840 --> 0:18:10.040 at some point you'll start saying, okay, can they really 0:18:10.080 --> 0:18:12.600 go back to where they were in December? And that's 0:18:12.640 --> 0:18:15.640 where we'll see probably a five to ten dollars risk 0:18:15.720 --> 0:18:18.520 premium that will be that will be put into the market. 0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:19.880 Even Amos managed to get the. 0:18:19.880 --> 0:18:22.440 Tech tried in the you know well, I mean, I 0:18:22.480 --> 0:18:24.679 think that there's a bit of frustration at least when 0:18:24.720 --> 0:18:27.720 people look at the geopolitics saying this actually matters tremendously, 0:18:28.040 --> 0:18:31.200 but they can't get anyone to care because everyone's saying, ooh. 0:18:31.160 --> 0:18:33.200 Space almost I'd love to find a word with you 0:18:33.600 --> 0:18:37.240 on that. There was some discussion that the rebuilt effort 0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:41.119 would be so costly, so expensive for nations across the Gulf, 0:18:41.200 --> 0:18:43.600 that they'd be distracted from spending all this money on 0:18:43.680 --> 0:18:46.159 tech on AI. When there has been some excitement, particularly 0:18:46.200 --> 0:18:48.240 over the last year about softign A on the amount 0:18:48.240 --> 0:18:50.720 investment that would come from that particular part of the world. 0:18:51.080 --> 0:18:52.960 What should we be tracking now, where's the money going? 0:18:53.040 --> 0:18:53.880 Where isn't it going? 0:18:55.600 --> 0:18:57.240 So I never agreed with that. 0:18:57.359 --> 0:19:00.439 With that notion, I think countries like you e And 0:19:00.480 --> 0:19:03.919 Saudi and others are really looking at tech as a 0:19:04.040 --> 0:19:08.080 long term diversification away from oil in their national economy 0:19:08.080 --> 0:19:11.440 and budgets that has become more acute, not less. They're 0:19:11.480 --> 0:19:15.280 going to be spending money one on diversification of their 0:19:15.400 --> 0:19:18.040 energy sector away from the Strait of Hormuz, so building 0:19:18.040 --> 0:19:21.560 out infrastructure, which sounds expensive but really isn't. It's a 0:19:21.560 --> 0:19:25.040 few billion dollars here and there to build out this infrastructure. 0:19:25.160 --> 0:19:27.960 And the second piece is to double down on their 0:19:28.000 --> 0:19:30.679 investments in tech, and most of that is going to 0:19:30.680 --> 0:19:32.639 be in the United States, because where else are you 0:19:32.720 --> 0:19:35.479 going to invest? There's a ceiling for them in how 0:19:35.560 --> 0:19:36.320 much they can invest. 0:19:36.320 --> 0:19:36.680 In China. 0:19:36.760 --> 0:19:39.320 They're continuing to invest there, but there's a ceiling. 0:19:39.720 --> 0:19:41.400 Europe is non existent. 0:19:41.680 --> 0:19:43.400 Or there's a little bit of play here and there, 0:19:43.440 --> 0:19:46.000 but it's really small amounts of dollars, and so the 0:19:46.040 --> 0:19:49.000 bulk of it will have to come to the United States. 0:19:49.320 --> 0:19:51.560 And I got to say I've been to UA in Saudi. 0:19:51.359 --> 0:19:54.879 The buildout that's happening there is going to continue to 0:19:56.240 --> 0:19:59.280 expand the question will be not how much they want 0:19:59.280 --> 0:20:03.520 to spend. What will companies, American companies, European companies want 0:20:03.560 --> 0:20:06.320 to build data centers in the golf or will they 0:20:06.359 --> 0:20:08.520 be more hesitant as a result of this. But I 0:20:08.520 --> 0:20:11.680 think you're going to see more money coming in to 0:20:11.720 --> 0:20:14.359 invest in this sector, and I think it's going to 0:20:14.400 --> 0:20:17.760 be mostly in the tech sector, some of it in healthcare, 0:20:18.520 --> 0:20:22.840 and other in sports and other entertainment sectors around the world, 0:20:22.920 --> 0:20:24.920 but mostly again, I think in the United States. 0:20:25.160 --> 0:20:25.800 Stay with us. 0:20:26.119 --> 0:20:38.480 More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this. Let's move on 0:20:38.480 --> 0:20:41.760 to talk about tech SpaceX the ill and muscled companies 0:20:41.800 --> 0:20:44.600 shedding roughly four hundred billion dollars in Monday session alone, 0:20:44.800 --> 0:20:48.160 the second largest single session drop in market value on record. 0:20:48.440 --> 0:20:52.080 Matt Wiheiler of Wellington Management writing, it's unique in that 0:20:52.119 --> 0:20:54.080 it's one of the few companies that can talk about 0:20:54.080 --> 0:20:56.520 a future that doesn't exist and get credit for it 0:20:56.560 --> 0:20:59.880 in their price. This is exactly how test the stock behaves. 0:21:00.160 --> 0:21:01.920 Joined to snaff and walmac and wanting good to see 0:21:01.920 --> 0:21:02.440 it good morning. 0:21:02.440 --> 0:21:04.199 Thanks for having me. Does that make it difficult to 0:21:04.200 --> 0:21:05.240 bet against the al Musk? 0:21:05.359 --> 0:21:07.800