WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: July 25, 2022 - Hour 2 (Radio) 0:00:03.480 --> 0:00:06.320 Live from the Bloomberg and Directive Workers studios. This is 0:00:06.360 --> 0:00:11.000 Bloomberg Daybreak for Monday to two. Coming up this shower. 0:00:11.240 --> 0:00:14.159 Investors brace for a pivotal week in the markets. The 0:00:14.280 --> 0:00:16.880 FETE is expected to hike rates by seventy five basis 0:00:16.920 --> 0:00:21.280 points again. Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet are all scheduled 0:00:21.280 --> 0:00:24.040 to report. And a new warning about monkey pox from 0:00:24.040 --> 0:00:28.000 the World Health Organization if he advisory extended till tonight 0:00:28.040 --> 0:00:30.800 for parts of the tri State. Donald Trump hangs to 0:00:30.840 --> 0:00:34.159 the nation's capital. I'm John Tucker. Those stories straight ahead. 0:00:34.440 --> 0:00:36.960 I'm John Stashdown Sports, Pete Alonzo, the Big Glow for 0:00:37.000 --> 0:00:39.960 the Mets that went over San Diego, Aaron Judge homeward again, 0:00:40.040 --> 0:00:45.800 the Yankees one in Baltimore. That's all strady ahead on 0:00:45.880 --> 0:00:51.560 Bloomberg Daybreak on Bloomberg he liveing freon New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, 0:00:51.680 --> 0:00:55.800 d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties, 0:00:55.800 --> 0:00:59.920 San Francisco, Sirius XM one nineteen and around the world 0:01:00.120 --> 0:01:03.640 on Bloomberg Radio dot com and via the Bloomberg Business App. 0:01:07.560 --> 0:01:10.280 Good Morning, I'm Nathan Hagar, and I'm Karen Moscow and 0:01:10.400 --> 0:01:13.039 US DOT Index futures on the rise this morning. We 0:01:13.080 --> 0:01:14.880 are coming up to six oh one on Wall Street, 0:01:14.880 --> 0:01:17.080 and we checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the 0:01:17.080 --> 0:01:19.640 trading day on Bloomberg. Right now, S and P futures 0:01:19.640 --> 0:01:22.320 are up about nineteen points down, Future is up one 0:01:22.760 --> 0:01:25.880 thirty six and NASDAG futures up sixty seven. Ten year 0:01:25.880 --> 0:01:29.280 Treasury down thirteen thirty seconds. Here two point eight zero 0:01:29.480 --> 0:01:32.440 per cent, Nathan Karen, we begin with this week's highly 0:01:32.480 --> 0:01:36.399 anticipated FED meeting. Their decision comes Wednesday, and after raising 0:01:36.520 --> 0:01:39.720 rates sharply in June, j Pal and colleagues are expected 0:01:39.760 --> 0:01:42.920 to approve another seventy five basis point hike, while the 0:01:42.920 --> 0:01:46.120 Fed titans policy to get inflation under controlled. Treasury Secretary 0:01:46.200 --> 0:01:48.520 Janet Yellen says she does not see any signed the 0:01:48.520 --> 0:01:51.720 economy is in a broad recession. We're likely to see 0:01:52.240 --> 0:01:57.320 some slowing of job creation, um, but I do I 0:01:57.680 --> 0:02:01.480 don't think that that's a recession. Recession is broad based 0:02:01.560 --> 0:02:05.800 weakness in the economy, We're not seeing that now. Treasury 0:02:05.800 --> 0:02:09.120 Secretary Janet Yelling made the comments on NBC's Meet the Press, 0:02:09.200 --> 0:02:13.200 heard Sundays on Bloomberg Radio. Well, despite Yellen's comments, Nathan, 0:02:13.280 --> 0:02:17.320 investors are skeptical to Fed can tame inflation without a recession. 0:02:17.600 --> 0:02:20.600 That's according to more than people who responded to a 0:02:20.600 --> 0:02:24.520 Bloomberg m Live Pulse survey. Beget more from Bloomberg's Heather Burke, 0:02:24.880 --> 0:02:28.000 over sixty of their respondents in the survey said there's 0:02:28.040 --> 0:02:30.840 a low or zero probability that the Fed can ring 0:02:30.880 --> 0:02:35.080 in inflation without causing our recession. And about two thirds 0:02:35.120 --> 0:02:38.400 of the respondents expect the tenier treasury yield to peak 0:02:38.520 --> 0:02:40.720 over the next nine months at the low three point 0:02:40.800 --> 0:02:43.800 seven percent, and most think that the Fed is going 0:02:43.840 --> 0:02:47.120 to start cutting rates in so definitely, it's a pretty 0:02:47.240 --> 0:02:52.440 muted outlook going into Bloomberg's Heather burg says, the majority 0:02:52.440 --> 0:02:54.400 in the survey you say the FED funds rate will 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:56.919 peak at four percent or less. Well. One other note 0:02:56.919 --> 0:02:59.760 on inflation, Karen, prices may be close to peaking, but 0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:02.359 they won't come down quickly. That's according to an analysis 0:03:02.360 --> 0:03:05.520 from Bloomberg Economics, which says inflation is likely to stay 0:03:05.560 --> 0:03:08.359 above eight percent through the end of the year. In fact, 0:03:08.400 --> 0:03:11.720 it seems model assigns zero probability that inflation will drop 0:03:11.720 --> 0:03:14.919 below four percent in the feed is not the only 0:03:14.960 --> 0:03:17.119 thing in focus this week, Nathan. It's also a big 0:03:17.200 --> 0:03:20.040 few days for major tech earnings. Should get more from 0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:23.320 Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett. It's a week one we'll hear from 0:03:23.440 --> 0:03:28.480 names including Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms, among 0:03:28.600 --> 0:03:31.640 many others. We will also hear from more than thirty 0:03:31.720 --> 0:03:35.440 percent of SMP five hundred companies. Liz Young is head 0:03:35.440 --> 0:03:39.280 of investment strategy at SO five. Earning season has been mixed, 0:03:39.400 --> 0:03:42.760 not terrible so far, but we have heard from a 0:03:42.800 --> 0:03:46.160 lot of companies that they're thinking the following environment is 0:03:46.200 --> 0:03:49.400 going to be more challenging, so they're preparing themselves for 0:03:49.440 --> 0:03:53.280 that challenge. Also on deck this week three m Boeing, Chevron, 0:03:53.360 --> 0:03:59.040 Coca Cola, GM, Hilton, MasterCard, McDonald's, PROC doing Gamble ups 0:03:59.040 --> 0:04:03.800 and Visa in New York. Charlie Pett Bloomberg Daybreak. All right, Charlie, thanks, 0:04:03.800 --> 0:04:06.440 and they're even more earnings this week in Europe. Let's 0:04:06.440 --> 0:04:08.440 go to London, get the leaders done that with bloombergs 0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:10.800 Uan Parks, good morning, Good morning, Nathan, and Karen. A 0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:14.120 bump a week for European earnings. Ryanair has posted a 0:04:14.120 --> 0:04:17.480 profit for the first quarter ahead of estimates. Europe's largest 0:04:17.520 --> 0:04:21.000 discount airline says it's cautious about bookings, though beyond the 0:04:21.080 --> 0:04:25.160 current summer travel boom. Meanwhile, first half profits slumping at 0:04:25.240 --> 0:04:29.239 Swiss wealth managers Julius Bear. That's as wild market swings 0:04:29.320 --> 0:04:32.279 spoots clients and a cut to sales guidance for this 0:04:32.360 --> 0:04:35.560 year from medical equipment maker Phillips. It's been hit by 0:04:35.560 --> 0:04:40.080 inflationary pressures, supply chain troubles and COVID lockdowns in China. 0:04:40.320 --> 0:04:43.039 Phillips the worst performing share on the stocky hundred today, 0:04:43.080 --> 0:04:45.600 down more than ten percent. In London, I'm you and 0:04:45.640 --> 0:04:48.120 part Spoomberg Daybreak, You and thank You and other news 0:04:48.200 --> 0:04:51.400 this morning, international concern is growing over monkey Parks. The 0:04:51.400 --> 0:04:54.400 World Health Organization has declared the monkey Parks outbreak a 0:04:54.520 --> 0:04:57.800 public health emergency. We get the leadersh live from Bloomberg's 0:04:57.800 --> 0:04:59.760 Real He too Young, Good Morning, Ready to Good Morning 0:04:59.760 --> 0:05:02.720 Care and the lack of urgency and coordination in testing 0:05:02.720 --> 0:05:05.200 and treatment for the monkey pox virus in many parts 0:05:05.240 --> 0:05:08.280 of the world has prompted the World Health Organization to 0:05:08.480 --> 0:05:11.839 sound the alarm. The virus has spread to about sixteen 0:05:11.880 --> 0:05:14.760 thousand people in more than seventy countries in just a 0:05:14.760 --> 0:05:18.400 few months, and White House COVID nineteen response coordinator dr 0:05:18.440 --> 0:05:22.760 Ashishta says monkeypos can be contained. The way we contain 0:05:22.800 --> 0:05:25.839 monkey pox is we have a very simple, straightforward strategy 0:05:25.880 --> 0:05:28.560 on this right, which is make testing widely available. We 0:05:28.600 --> 0:05:31.039 have done that and now testing is far more frequent 0:05:31.080 --> 0:05:33.800 and common. We're going to be releasing hundreds of thousands 0:05:33.800 --> 0:05:37.360 of more vaccines in the next days and weeks. Dr 0:05:37.400 --> 0:05:40.719 Ashishta made the comments on CBSS Face the Nation. You 0:05:40.760 --> 0:05:44.359 can hear the program Sundays on Bloomberg Radio Live in 0:05:44.400 --> 0:05:47.440 New York. I'm reneed a young Bloomberg Radio Okay, Nita, 0:05:47.520 --> 0:05:49.760 thanks training to COVID nineteen. Now we have an update 0:05:49.800 --> 0:05:52.560 on President Biden's condition as he recovers from about with 0:05:52.640 --> 0:05:55.479 the virus. Amy Morris has details from our Bloomberg ninety 0:05:55.760 --> 0:05:59.280 one newsroom in Washington. White House physician Kevin O'Connor says 0:05:59.320 --> 0:06:02.640 President by the symptoms are improving significantly, with the most 0:06:02.720 --> 0:06:06.120 prominent symptom now a sore thrope. O'Connor says the seventy 0:06:06.200 --> 0:06:09.039 nine year old who is vaccinated and double boosted, is 0:06:09.080 --> 0:06:11.800 responding to therapy. Is expected, and his other symptoms have 0:06:11.920 --> 0:06:15.159 diminished considerably. Biden is being treated with packs la it It It, 0:06:15.279 --> 0:06:16.960 He takes tail and all and has been using an 0:06:17.000 --> 0:06:19.520 inhaler two to three times a day. The White House 0:06:19.560 --> 0:06:23.240 says he's still working as he continues to isolate in Washington. 0:06:23.320 --> 0:06:25.919 I'm Amy Morris Bloomberg Daybreak. All right, Amy, thank you. 0:06:25.960 --> 0:06:28.599 In corporate news this morning, Apple has announced a rare 0:06:28.760 --> 0:06:32.000 retail promotion in China. It's offering four days of discounts 0:06:32.000 --> 0:06:35.040 and its top tier iPhones and related accessories ahead of 0:06:35.040 --> 0:06:38.039 the launch of its next generation devices. The company is 0:06:38.080 --> 0:06:41.840 historically reluctant to alter pricing. The discounts come as China's 0:06:41.839 --> 0:06:44.919 economy tries to bounce back from major COVID lockdowns in 0:06:45.000 --> 0:06:48.880 Shanghai and Beijing. Finally, Karen Elon Musk is denying that 0:06:48.920 --> 0:06:51.920 he had an affair with Google co founder Sergey Brinn's wife. 0:06:52.040 --> 0:06:54.360 According to The Wall Street Journal, this alleged affair took 0:06:54.360 --> 0:06:57.320 place in December. The newspaper says it led Brinn to 0:06:57.360 --> 0:07:00.520 sell his investments in Muskus companies, but my says the 0:07:00.560 --> 0:07:03.719 story isn't true that he's still friends with Bran brand 0:07:03.760 --> 0:07:06.880 filed for divorced from his wife back in January. SMP 0:07:07.000 --> 0:07:09.240 futures right now are up six team points, Staff futures 0:07:09.320 --> 0:07:13.200 up a hundred seventeen, Nasdaq futures higher by fifty eight points. 0:07:13.320 --> 0:07:16.640 And straight ahead, we have your latest local headlines plus 0:07:16.640 --> 0:07:24.560 a check of sports. You're listening to Bloomberg Daybreak at 0:07:24.560 --> 0:07:26.320 six o seven on Wall Street where at eighty two 0:07:26.320 --> 0:07:28.600 degrees in Central Park down dealing with the wreck near 0:07:28.720 --> 0:07:32.520 Newark Airport southbound Root twenty one by Clay Street. More 0:07:32.560 --> 0:07:34.840 coming up in traffic. First John Tucker with more on 0:07:34.880 --> 0:07:36.600 what's going on in New York and around the world. 0:07:36.600 --> 0:07:39.320 Good morning, John, Good morning Nathan historic keat has a 0:07:39.320 --> 0:07:42.560 lot of people struggling to pay utility bills, and as 0:07:42.560 --> 0:07:45.480 bloombergston he's felt like Greeney tells us. The Senate Majority 0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:49.480 leader Chuck Schumer's as people need more help. Senator Schumer 0:07:49.520 --> 0:07:53.960 says demand for New York's federally funded cooling assistance program 0:07:54.160 --> 0:07:58.600 is unprecedented. There has been such a big demand for 0:07:58.720 --> 0:08:02.720 this program given the heat way. The applications went up 0:08:02.720 --> 0:08:08.160 from about ten thousand to thirty thousand, increase in demand, 0:08:08.360 --> 0:08:11.080 and Sumer is proposing adding billions of dollars to the 0:08:11.080 --> 0:08:13.800 budget for the program after it had to stop taking 0:08:13.840 --> 0:08:17.400 applications because it was so oversubscribed to the spell a 0:08:17.440 --> 0:08:21.559 greedy Blueberg radio a destructive wildfire near Yosemite has burned 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:24.720 out of control through tinder drive forests and has grown 0:08:24.760 --> 0:08:27.800 into one of California's biggest blazes of the year. It's 0:08:27.800 --> 0:08:31.520 worth thousands of residents to flee remote mountain communities the 0:08:31.680 --> 0:08:34.760 share of genermy breeze. As the fight is far from over. 0:08:35.120 --> 0:08:39.720 There is hot ash, hot trees, still stuff throwing stuff 0:08:39.760 --> 0:08:43.800 over the line, causing US concerns. Two thousand firefighters battle 0:08:43.840 --> 0:08:47.120 the Oak Creek fire, facing tough conditions including steep terrain, 0:08:47.280 --> 0:08:51.520 sweltering temperatures at low humidity. Donald Trump is heading back 0:08:51.559 --> 0:08:55.280 to Washington as Republican rivals maneuver for a possible primary 0:08:55.360 --> 0:08:59.840 challenge at Loanmaker's probe his culpability for the January six insurrection. 0:09:00.240 --> 0:09:03.080 The former president will deliver a keynote speech Tuesday at 0:09:03.080 --> 0:09:07.400 the America First Agenda Summit, a conservative conference. Trump isn't 0:09:07.400 --> 0:09:09.800 expanded to announce that third run for president and his 0:09:09.960 --> 0:09:13.920 Washington's speech, at least according to advisers Today his former 0:09:14.000 --> 0:09:16.640 vice president might pants will deliverer marks of his own. 0:09:17.320 --> 0:09:20.040 A live stream of the church service in New York 0:09:20.120 --> 0:09:23.920 was interrupted Sunday morning by a robbery. Three gun toting 0:09:23.960 --> 0:09:27.400 thieves entered the leaders of Tomorrow International Ministries in Brooklyn, 0:09:27.720 --> 0:09:31.679 demanding valuables from Bishop Lamar Whitehead. You know, took my watch, 0:09:31.720 --> 0:09:34.600 took my jury, took my bishop's ring, took my wedding den, 0:09:34.920 --> 0:09:37.680 and then he took my bishop's cross. Well, the bishop says, 0:09:37.720 --> 0:09:41.280 the thieves drove away, you know, white Mercedes. New York 0:09:41.320 --> 0:09:44.559 City ranks ninety three in the US for public bathrooms 0:09:44.600 --> 0:09:47.520 per capita. Now there's a will ended opening more public 0:09:47.520 --> 0:09:50.520 bathrooms that has the support to pass the city Council. 0:09:51.000 --> 0:09:54.320 The effort comes after widespread shutdowns during the early days 0:09:54.360 --> 0:09:57.400 of the pandemic made it even harder to find a restroom. 0:09:57.720 --> 0:10:01.840 The Metropolitan Transportation Authority shutter to all seventies six toilets 0:10:01.960 --> 0:10:04.959 in the subway system. Global News twenty four hours a 0:10:05.000 --> 0:10:07.880 day on air hand on Bloomberg Quicktake. We're powered by 0:10:07.960 --> 0:10:10.560 more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts and more 0:10:10.600 --> 0:10:14.280 than one d twenty countries. I'm John Tucker. This is 0:10:14.320 --> 0:10:21.680 Bloomberg Nathan, Thanks John six ten on Wall Street. John 0:10:21.679 --> 0:10:24.760 Stashar has a Bloomberg Sports Uday. Thanks Nathan, Aaron, Judge, 0:10:24.760 --> 0:10:27.760 pet Alonso, the two New York City Sluggers. They've got 0:10:27.760 --> 0:10:30.079 the two most runs vetted in in the majors, and 0:10:30.120 --> 0:10:33.560 they'll be facing off tomorrow and Wednesday. A brief subway 0:10:33.600 --> 0:10:36.240 series at City Field. Yesterday in Baltimore, another home run 0:10:36.280 --> 0:10:39.400 for Judges thirty seven. He hit three in the series 0:10:39.480 --> 0:10:41.280 and in the game where he did homary at four hits. 0:10:41.360 --> 0:10:44.480 Jose Travino had four hits. Mr. Cortez and the Yanks 0:10:44.480 --> 0:10:47.079 shout out the oriol six nothing. Last night city Field, 0:10:47.080 --> 0:10:49.880 the Mets held scoreless until the sixth inning. At that 0:10:49.960 --> 0:10:52.080 point they had only scored two runs in the series. 0:10:52.120 --> 0:10:55.559 Alonso then unloaded three run homer. Mets went on to 0:10:55.679 --> 0:10:58.120 lead the Padres eight to one, and then held on 0:10:58.440 --> 0:11:01.240 to beat San Diego eight to five five in Atlanta loss. 0:11:01.240 --> 0:11:03.160 So the Mets are a game and a half ahead 0:11:03.160 --> 0:11:05.560 of the praise. Among those inducted into the Baseball Hall 0:11:05.600 --> 0:11:08.640 of Fame, Gil Hodges fifty years after his death. He 0:11:08.760 --> 0:11:11.760 was one of the Boys of Summer of Beloved Brooklyn 0:11:11.800 --> 0:11:15.800 Dodger first baseman. His daughter Irene made his induction speech. 0:11:16.040 --> 0:11:19.880 When my father slumped in the nineteen fifty two World Series, 0:11:20.520 --> 0:11:26.160 Brooklyn fans loved him who goes over and gets the 0:11:26.280 --> 0:11:31.040 standing ovation every time at bat Mets fans loved him too. Hodges, 0:11:31.080 --> 0:11:34.080 of course, the manager the Miracle Mets. In nineteen sixty nine, 0:11:34.440 --> 0:11:38.480 Cleon Jones ed Cranepool, Art Shamsky, Ron Swoboda, and the 0:11:38.559 --> 0:11:41.199 daughter of the late Tom Siever. We're all there in 0:11:41.240 --> 0:11:44.640 Cooper's Town where David Ortiz, Jim Cott, Tony Oliva, the 0:11:44.679 --> 0:11:47.520 late Mini Minosa, and Buff O'Neil were all inducted as well. 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:50.400 Three M Golf in Minnesota. Tony Fidou trailed by five 0:11:50.440 --> 0:11:52.880 shots with eleven holes to play. He won by three. 0:11:53.080 --> 0:11:57.199 John Stash Bloomberg Sports, Thank you, John SMP futures of 0:11:57.360 --> 0:11:59.679 sixteen points south features of a hundred twenty four dance 0:11:59.720 --> 0:12:03.240 actually higher by fifty nine points. You're listening to Bloomberg 0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:09.080 day Break Bloomber eleven three oh weather. Some showers and 0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:11.439 storms possible today with the heat Advisor in effect till 0:12:11.440 --> 0:12:13.640 eight pm for parts of northern New Jersey. Will be 0:12:13.679 --> 0:12:16.439 in the mid eighties tomorrow, oper eighties by Wednesday right 0:12:16.440 --> 0:12:24.760 now one in Central Park markets, headlines and breaking news 0:12:24.840 --> 0:12:27.439 twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot Com, the 0:12:27.520 --> 0:12:31.640 Bloomberg Business at and at Bloomberg Quicktape He's a Bloomberg 0:12:31.720 --> 0:12:40.800 Business lash and I'm Karen Moscow and US dot get 0:12:40.880 --> 0:12:43.640 Next Future is on the rise this morning, while European 0:12:43.720 --> 0:12:46.480 shares are also gaining. Now. We check the markets every 0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:50.160 fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. On Bloomberg SNP futures 0:12:50.200 --> 0:12:52.600 up twenty points now. Futures of a hundred fifty two 0:12:52.720 --> 0:12:55.720 nasday Future is up seventy one. The decks in Germany's 0:12:55.800 --> 0:12:59.120 up half per cent. Attend your treasury down fourteen thirty seconds, 0:12:59.320 --> 0:13:01.920 he'll two point zero percent. They yield on the two 0:13:02.000 --> 0:13:05.640 year two point nine percent. Nimex Scrude oil is up 0:13:05.679 --> 0:13:07.920 one per cent or ninety six cents at ninety five 0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:10.800 sixty six cents of Barrel Comic School is up two 0:13:10.840 --> 0:13:14.720 tenths per cent or two dollars ninety cents a seventy announced. 0:13:14.880 --> 0:13:17.720 The euro one point zero to three three against the dollar, 0:13:17.760 --> 0:13:20.280 British found one point two zero four or five, and 0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:22.559 the yen at one thirty six point three one. And 0:13:22.720 --> 0:13:25.240 look at a bitcoin this morning, it's down three percent 0:13:25.280 --> 0:13:28.920 at twenty two thow five dollars. That's a Bloomberg business flash. 0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:31.120 Now here's John Tucker with more on what's going on 0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:34.800 around the world. John and carry the international concern growing 0:13:34.800 --> 0:13:38.079 over monkey pox. The World Health Organization has declared the 0:13:38.080 --> 0:13:42.480 monkey pots outbreak of public health emergency. Elon Boss denying 0:13:42.559 --> 0:13:45.760 he had an affair with Google co founders Sergey Brin's wife. 0:13:45.920 --> 0:13:48.800 According to The Wall Street Journal, the alleged defferent took 0:13:48.840 --> 0:13:53.559 place in December, and a destructive wildfire near Yosemite National 0:13:53.640 --> 0:13:57.920 Park burning out of control through tinder dry forests. Thousands 0:13:57.920 --> 0:14:00.920 of residents in the area have been evacua. In it, sports, 0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:04.400 Yankees beat the Ohs, the Mets top the Podres, Red 0:14:04.440 --> 0:14:07.800 Sox fall to the Blue Jays, the Dodgers beat the Giants. 0:14:07.840 --> 0:14:11.680 The Nationals also beat the Diamondbacks. Global News twenty four 0:14:11.679 --> 0:14:14.079 hours a day on air in a Bloomberg quick take 0:14:14.160 --> 0:14:17.280 power by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts. 0:14:17.640 --> 0:14:20.560 It more than one hundred twenty countries. I'm John Tucker 0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:23.240 at vs is Bloomberg. Nathan Okay, John, thank you. At 0:14:23.240 --> 0:14:26.000 six nineteen on Wall Street Live from the Bloomberg Interactive 0:14:26.000 --> 0:14:29.360 Brokers studios. This is Bloomberg Daybreak and Michael Houston is 0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:32.720 with us now, chief market analyst at CMC Markets. As 0:14:32.720 --> 0:14:34.360 we get ready for a trading week, it's going to 0:14:34.400 --> 0:14:38.640 be dominated by a Fed decision and big tech earnings. Michael, 0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:42.680 good morning. Of course, a lot of focus now on 0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:46.040 what the Fed will decide on Wednesday. It seems as 0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:49.760 though they've pretty much telegraphed to seventy five basis point move. 0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:53.920 So what are markets looking for ahead of that? Well? 0:14:53.960 --> 0:14:56.920 I found I funny think it's actually quite telling that 0:14:57.760 --> 0:15:00.840 we actually opened on the down swing hearing Europe, and 0:15:01.640 --> 0:15:04.480 we've only started to edge higher after the German i 0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:07.480 FO business survey posted some really die in numbers this 0:15:07.520 --> 0:15:12.480 morning and has pulled us back rather counterintuitively into positive territory. 0:15:12.520 --> 0:15:16.240 And I can't help thinking that markets are pricing in 0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:20.040 they were getting close to the end of the central 0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:23.800 bank hiking cycle. Then we are into the beginning. Certainly. 0:15:23.840 --> 0:15:25.600 I think if you look at the way bond you 0:15:25.640 --> 0:15:27.640 would have been behaving over the course of the past 0:15:27.680 --> 0:15:32.120 few weeks. I can't help thinking that we've peaked and 0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:36.720 that ultimately markets are now pricing in increased probability of recession. 0:15:37.520 --> 0:15:41.240 And ultimately, after this week's seventy basis point rate hiked 0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:45.120 by the Federal Reserve, I think the key message will 0:15:45.160 --> 0:15:49.000 be how hard are the Fed going to go subsequent 0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:54.080 to the Jackson Hole obviously in September and thereafter, And 0:15:54.120 --> 0:15:58.040 I think markets are starting to price out the probability 0:15:58.120 --> 0:16:02.000 of much more aggressive tightening as we head into the 0:16:02.120 --> 0:16:04.400 second half of the year. That's certainly my feeling when 0:16:04.400 --> 0:16:07.240 I look at the behavior of the US dollar, which 0:16:07.280 --> 0:16:10.600 has started to show signs of rolling over. But really 0:16:10.640 --> 0:16:12.800 I think it's what bond markets are telling me at 0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:17.480 the moment. They're telling me that markets are, you know, 0:16:17.520 --> 0:16:20.920 sort of doubtful about whether or not center banks are 0:16:20.920 --> 0:16:22.240 going to be able to time as much as they 0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:24.880 say that. So, are you thinking that there could be 0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:29.400 a pivot from the Fed away from an inflation finding 0:16:29.440 --> 0:16:31.920 focus to more of a focus now and trying to 0:16:31.960 --> 0:16:36.280 avoid recession? Is that your call now? Not yet. I 0:16:36.320 --> 0:16:39.160 don't think they'll signal it this early. I think they'll 0:16:39.200 --> 0:16:42.840 go through with the basis points on Thursday. I think 0:16:42.920 --> 0:16:45.440 it's way too early to signal any sort of pivot, 0:16:45.920 --> 0:16:48.520 even though the markets are starting to price that. I 0:16:48.560 --> 0:16:51.320 think if if we're going to see a pivot, look 0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:55.000 howm at Jackson Hole, Because generally that's when the Federal 0:16:55.160 --> 0:16:58.520 Reserve it tends to lay out what it expects for 0:16:58.560 --> 0:17:01.080 the U S economy over the course of the next 0:17:01.840 --> 0:17:04.199 three to four months into year end, and they'll have 0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:07.320 more data to work with a Jackson Hall, they'll have 0:17:07.359 --> 0:17:10.879 another I'll have another two payrolls reports to work with, 0:17:11.800 --> 0:17:14.440 They'll have two months more data. I mean that services 0:17:14.520 --> 0:17:18.200 data that we saw on Friday was particularly surprising and 0:17:18.240 --> 0:17:20.160 a little bit shocking. And I'll be interested to see 0:17:20.160 --> 0:17:23.399 whether or not the I S M non manufacturing data 0:17:23.920 --> 0:17:27.639 supports the decline that we saw in the more general 0:17:27.640 --> 0:17:30.840 Peremo numbers that we saw last week. How much is 0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:34.320 the Fed potentially affected by the European Central Banks decision 0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:37.120 to go a little bit higher than the markets might 0:17:37.119 --> 0:17:39.960 have been anticipating. Does that have any impact on what 0:17:40.040 --> 0:17:44.320 the Fed decides this week? No, none, whatsoever. The ECB 0:17:44.520 --> 0:17:49.520 has a completely different set of problems than the Federal Reserve. UM. 0:17:49.560 --> 0:17:52.280 You know, the decision last week to hike by fifty 0:17:52.280 --> 0:17:54.919 basis points was akin to bringing a knife to a 0:17:54.960 --> 0:17:58.320 gunfight for the e c B, even though the markets 0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:00.639 are talking about the prospect that probably going to be 0:18:00.720 --> 0:18:03.080 able to hike by another hundred and fifty basis points 0:18:03.080 --> 0:18:06.600 by year end, I seriously doubt that if if the 0:18:06.640 --> 0:18:10.760 German economy and the European economy slides into recession um so, 0:18:10.880 --> 0:18:13.480 I think as far as the ECB is concerned, it 0:18:13.560 --> 0:18:16.000 has its own set of unique problems to deal with, 0:18:16.359 --> 0:18:19.399 completely independent of the Federal Reserve. Now on top of 0:18:19.440 --> 0:18:21.400 the FED decision this week, of course, we've got a 0:18:21.440 --> 0:18:24.800 slew of big tech earnings. What's the bigger focus for 0:18:24.960 --> 0:18:27.760 markets this week? Is that the tech earning story? Or 0:18:27.800 --> 0:18:31.679 is it what the Fed decide? I think I actually 0:18:31.760 --> 0:18:34.000 think it's the earning story. I think you saw the 0:18:34.080 --> 0:18:38.560 reaction from those step numbers on at the end of 0:18:38.640 --> 0:18:42.560 last week on Friday morning and the subsequent decline there, 0:18:42.560 --> 0:18:45.040 and it's not the first time it's snapped. The sort 0:18:45.080 --> 0:18:46.560 of acted as a little bit of a canary in 0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:49.680 the coal mine when it comes to tech earnings. We've 0:18:49.680 --> 0:18:55.960 got obviously alphabet tomorrow. We've also got better later in 0:18:56.000 --> 0:18:58.639 the week, and it was notable. I think for me, 0:18:58.800 --> 0:19:04.000 Nathan in the US quota, how advertising revenues for Alphabet 0:19:04.119 --> 0:19:08.439 actually disappointed towards the downside, and it was largely on 0:19:08.560 --> 0:19:11.680 as a consequence of a shortfall and YouTube revenue. I'll 0:19:11.720 --> 0:19:13.840 be interested to see whether or not that pattern is 0:19:13.880 --> 0:19:17.840 repeated as we look ahead to the Q two numbers 0:19:17.880 --> 0:19:21.040 and what their outlook is for Q three. More importantly, 0:19:21.040 --> 0:19:23.920 I'm less concerned about metas numbers as I am about Amazon. 0:19:24.000 --> 0:19:28.680 What do Amazon's numbers tell us about um It's costs, 0:19:29.000 --> 0:19:32.320 it's margins, and also its outlook for the rest of 0:19:32.320 --> 0:19:35.720 the year. Now lives to digest this week. Thanks for this, Michael, 0:19:35.760 --> 0:19:38.919 always great to speak with you. Michael Houghson, Chief market 0:19:38.920 --> 0:19:43.400 analyst at CMC Markets. Right now, SMP futures are up 0:19:43.600 --> 0:19:46.240 eighteen points, stowth future is up a hundred forty six. 0:19:46.320 --> 0:19:49.439 Nasdaq futures are higher by sixty four points. The ten 0:19:49.520 --> 0:19:52.240 your treasury is down fourteen thirty seconds for a yield 0:19:52.240 --> 0:19:54.280 of two point eight zero percent, and the yield on 0:19:54.320 --> 0:19:57.960 the two year right now two point nine nine percent. 0:19:59.240 --> 0:20:08.600 You're listening to Bloomberg Daybreak Bloomberg eleven three oh Weather 0:20:08.640 --> 0:20:10.400 could see some storms today as we have a heat 0:20:10.400 --> 0:20:13.080 advisory till eight tonight from parts of northern New Jersey. 0:20:13.160 --> 0:20:17.480 High near ninety today, mid eighties tomorrow, oper eighties by Wednesday. 0:20:17.560 --> 0:20:23.600 Right now one in Central Park, broadcasting live from the 0:20:23.640 --> 0:20:27.639 Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York, Bloomberg E Living 0:20:27.680 --> 0:20:32.280 Free to Washington, d C. Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg one 0:20:32.280 --> 0:20:35.480 O six one does San Francisco, Bloomberg N sixty to 0:20:35.520 --> 0:20:38.639 the country Sirius XM Chento one nine te and around 0:20:38.640 --> 0:20:42.560 the globe the Bloomberg Business in Bloomberg Radio dot com. 0:20:42.600 --> 0:20:51.520 This is Bloomberg Daybreak six thirty on Wall Street. Good morning, 0:20:51.560 --> 0:20:54.320 I'm Nathan Hagar and I'm kmerin Moscow. We are just 0:20:54.400 --> 0:20:56.960 about three hours away from the open of US training. 0:20:57.040 --> 0:20:58.679 It's time for the five Things that you need to 0:20:58.680 --> 0:21:01.760 notice start your day. Brought to you by Interactive Brokers 0:21:01.800 --> 0:21:05.320 Global Analysts. It helps you find a global investment opportunities 0:21:05.320 --> 0:21:09.440 to diversify your portfolio and discover undervalued companies that may 0:21:09.480 --> 0:21:12.480 have greater growth potential. Try I v k R Global 0:21:12.480 --> 0:21:16.760 Analysts today at IBKR dot com. Slash g A first 0:21:16.760 --> 0:21:20.280 who begin with this week's highly anticipated FED meeting, when 0:21:20.320 --> 0:21:23.480 Share J. Powell and his colleagues are expected to once 0:21:23.480 --> 0:21:26.880 again approve a seventy five basis point hike in interest rates. 0:21:27.160 --> 0:21:30.320 Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says she does not believe the 0:21:30.400 --> 0:21:33.720 US economy is in a broad recession, but inflation is 0:21:33.720 --> 0:21:37.560 still a concern. Inflation is way too high. The FED 0:21:38.040 --> 0:21:41.480 is charged with putting in place policies that will bring 0:21:41.560 --> 0:21:46.520 inflation down, and I expect them to be successful. Treasury 0:21:46.520 --> 0:21:49.200 Secretary Janet Yellen made the comments on ABC's and Meet 0:21:49.240 --> 0:21:51.240 the Press, and you can hear the program Sundays on 0:21:51.280 --> 0:21:54.640 Bloomberg Radio. Well, despite what Yellen saying, Karen, investors remain 0:21:54.720 --> 0:21:57.359 skeptical that the Fed will contain inflation. That's according to 0:21:57.359 --> 0:22:00.000 more than hundred of them who participated in a Bloomberg 0:22:00.000 --> 0:22:02.400 and Live Pulse survey. According to a new model from 0:22:02.400 --> 0:22:05.800 Bloomberg Economics, inflation is very likely to stay above eight 0:22:05.840 --> 0:22:09.200 percent through year end, Nathan. Big tech earnings are also 0:22:09.280 --> 0:22:13.760 in focus on Wall Street. We'll hear from Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, 0:22:13.800 --> 0:22:16.800 and Meta this week. They join more than thirty s 0:22:16.840 --> 0:22:19.880 and P five hundred companies scheduled to report another newscarent 0:22:19.960 --> 0:22:22.920 international concern is growing over monkey poks. The World Health 0:22:23.000 --> 0:22:25.879 Organizations declared it a public health emergency. Let's get the 0:22:25.920 --> 0:22:28.439 latest from Bloomberg's We Need a Young The lack of 0:22:28.560 --> 0:22:31.879 urgency and coordination and testing and treatment for the monkeypox 0:22:31.960 --> 0:22:34.560 virus in many parts of the world has prompted the 0:22:34.560 --> 0:22:38.159 World Health Organization to sound the alarm. The virus has 0:22:38.200 --> 0:22:41.480 spread to about sixteen thousand people in more than seventy 0:22:41.560 --> 0:22:44.600 countries in just a few months, and White House COVID 0:22:44.680 --> 0:22:49.560 nineteen response Coordinator Dr Eshishja says monkey poks can be contained. 0:22:49.760 --> 0:22:51.920 The way we contain monkey pox is we have a 0:22:52.040 --> 0:22:55.200