WEBVTT - Back to the Future in Afghanistan. Mike Lyons Talks to Armstrong & Getty 0:00:00.680 --> 0:00:07.440 I'm strong, I'm strong, and Jaddy show in Afghanistan. We've 0:00:07.440 --> 0:00:11.160 taken twenty years to lose to goatherds with fertilizer, and 0:00:11.200 --> 0:00:14.400 they're not even waiting until we leave to loot Bagram 0:00:14.440 --> 0:00:18.360 Air Base for basketballs and boom boxes and the world's 0:00:18.400 --> 0:00:23.000 most lavishly funded and entirely useless General staff thinks we 0:00:23.040 --> 0:00:28.040 need more diversity saminars. So that's Mark Stein filling in 0:00:28.160 --> 0:00:30.360 last night on Fox. He's really good and a good writer, 0:00:30.480 --> 0:00:32.760 but he was making his argument was we spend too 0:00:32.800 --> 0:00:36.160 much time in our military worried about a political correctness. 0:00:36.159 --> 0:00:38.040 Now you remember the thing, what was the thing last 0:00:38.080 --> 0:00:42.000 week that General Milly was on critical race theory, but 0:00:42.080 --> 0:00:44.560 whether recommending reading that was a good idea and not 0:00:44.760 --> 0:00:47.839 see I'm I'm leaning toward getting out of Afghanistan and 0:00:47.880 --> 0:00:51.680 have been for about fifteen years. Uh So I'll be 0:00:51.720 --> 0:00:53.599 interested to see what our next guest has to say. 0:00:53.640 --> 0:00:55.240 We always go to mic lines, but we want to 0:00:55.240 --> 0:00:57.880 know this stuff. But this is from the Onion. Somebody 0:00:57.920 --> 0:01:02.720 sent this. This is from the Onion in ten years ago. 0:01:02.880 --> 0:01:05.560 This is on the ten year anniversary being in Afghanistan. 0:01:05.800 --> 0:01:08.600 The Onion headline was and remember The Onion is a 0:01:08.680 --> 0:01:14.479 joke newspaper. The Onion headline was US quietly slips out 0:01:14.520 --> 0:01:17.640 of Afghanistan and dead of night. And there are some 0:01:17.680 --> 0:01:19.880 reports that that's what we did just a couple of 0:01:19.880 --> 0:01:22.560 months ago, leaving the Air Force base and not telling 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:25.760 anybody and just we're out. Well, let's talk to military 0:01:25.800 --> 0:01:28.959 analyst Mike Lyons, who served with various military organizations in 0:01:28.959 --> 0:01:32.840 both the United States Europe throughout his career. AH. He 0:01:33.080 --> 0:01:35.959 is a student of history, military history in particular, and 0:01:36.000 --> 0:01:39.119 we always enjoy his perspective. Mike, how are you sir? Hey, guys, 0:01:39.120 --> 0:01:41.360 so good to be back with you. We have no 0:01:41.440 --> 0:01:44.360 problem with being corrected on any of our beliefs, assumptions 0:01:44.440 --> 0:01:46.360 or things we know about what's going on anywhere in 0:01:46.400 --> 0:01:48.920 the world. What what is currently happening in Afghanistan? Is 0:01:48.920 --> 0:01:51.280 it a good thing or a bad thing? Well, first 0:01:51.280 --> 0:01:52.640 of all, I do agree we should have been out 0:01:52.960 --> 0:01:55.120 maybe five years ago. I think Donald Trump should have 0:01:55.160 --> 0:01:57.400 made it a priority of his administration when he first 0:01:57.600 --> 0:02:00.760 got elected and just basically gave everybody in the Heisman 0:02:00.760 --> 0:02:03.800 and said this is what we're doing. The military industrial complex, 0:02:03.800 --> 0:02:07.040 though wasn't finished testing equipment wasn't finished the on the 0:02:07.120 --> 0:02:09.200 army still didn't have a mission. What couldn't figure out 0:02:09.240 --> 0:02:11.800 you know, how they're gonna make that happen. Um, I 0:02:11.840 --> 0:02:13.440 think it's I do think it's the right thing. It's 0:02:13.440 --> 0:02:14.880 going to be back to the future that we're gonna 0:02:14.880 --> 0:02:17.640 go back to two thousand and one very quickly, the 0:02:17.680 --> 0:02:21.240 civil war will start. The Taliban now controls something like 0:02:22.080 --> 0:02:25.440 of the land districts in the country already, even just 0:02:25.480 --> 0:02:27.840 giving up the air base. Yeah and so, and you know, 0:02:28.360 --> 0:02:30.680 even the military has gone, the contractor so still being gone. 0:02:30.680 --> 0:02:32.840 You're gonna see Unfortunately, we can't vet any of these 0:02:32.840 --> 0:02:34.840 interpreters that that that plan is going to go out 0:02:34.840 --> 0:02:36.360 the window. So there's gonna be a lot of people 0:02:36.440 --> 0:02:39.120 that trusted us that are gonna end up losing their 0:02:39.160 --> 0:02:41.680 lives when the Taliban takes over here. But again, it 0:02:42.040 --> 0:02:44.880 probably should have happened years ago. To your point, Wow, hey, 0:02:44.919 --> 0:02:47.920 can we uh take a look at that specific subject, 0:02:47.960 --> 0:02:50.160 the vetting of the interpreters. You don't think it's going 0:02:50.200 --> 0:02:52.440 to actually happen, and you don't think their necks are 0:02:52.440 --> 0:02:55.200 going to be saved. No, you know, we're gonna we 0:02:55.200 --> 0:02:57.400 talk a good game about it's all words. I just 0:02:57.520 --> 0:02:59.360 it's just not gonna happen. It's just it's just can't 0:02:59.360 --> 0:03:02.560 logistically up in the amount of people that that's involved with, 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:04.480 and people are gonna slip through the cracks, so there's 0:03:04.480 --> 0:03:07.400 gonna be reports of that in the future. The question 0:03:07.440 --> 0:03:10.360 is whether or not the Taliban is going to go 0:03:10.440 --> 0:03:12.919 after those folks, and and you know, I think you know, 0:03:13.040 --> 0:03:14.520 us ms, you might be safe. I don't think you're 0:03:14.520 --> 0:03:16.920 going to see a complete sidon situation where we're going 0:03:17.000 --> 0:03:20.000 to you know, escape from helicopter roofs there and whether 0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:21.560 or not they want to go after But it's going 0:03:21.639 --> 0:03:24.679 to happen. And the number we're talking about, it's just 0:03:24.720 --> 0:03:26.880 too big a logistical challenges. More people in that group 0:03:26.919 --> 0:03:28.440 than there are soldiers out of there to try to 0:03:28.440 --> 0:03:29.679 get out of there in the next two months, so 0:03:30.280 --> 0:03:32.320 and their family. So it's just not going to happen. 0:03:32.360 --> 0:03:34.760 And it's an unfortunate thing that we should have planned 0:03:34.760 --> 0:03:39.400 for a long time ago. God I would say so. So, so, 0:03:40.120 --> 0:03:42.400 how do we go into another country and get people 0:03:42.440 --> 0:03:44.600 to help us? If we uh, if we leave these 0:03:44.640 --> 0:03:48.080 interpreters behind to be killed maybe along with their families. Yeah, 0:03:48.080 --> 0:03:49.560 I think we're out of country, is that we're going 0:03:49.600 --> 0:03:51.520 to go into and have that situation. I think we 0:03:51.600 --> 0:03:54.040 haven't learned from this one again. I I just don't 0:03:54.040 --> 0:03:57.160 know what else to say here. Um we saw, you know, 0:03:57.480 --> 0:04:01.320 this is Vietnam in some ways over and over, except 0:04:01.360 --> 0:04:03.360 we didn't have a hunter fifty body backs coming back 0:04:03.400 --> 0:04:06.920 every week. Um. We just don't seem to learn our 0:04:07.000 --> 0:04:10.840 mistakes here from these kinds of interacts, and I really 0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:12.680 don't see us doing it. I think in the next 0:04:13.000 --> 0:04:16.080 few years, regardless of administration. Now the question is how 0:04:16.680 --> 0:04:18.360 you know what it's trying to do is trying to 0:04:18.400 --> 0:04:20.920 become more bellicose in the South China Sea. We saw 0:04:20.960 --> 0:04:23.520 the comments by their leader the other day. I mean 0:04:23.560 --> 0:04:25.760 they're talking about, you know, smashing heads and things like that. 0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:28.680 So you know the military is gonna have to kind 0:04:28.680 --> 0:04:30.680 of regroup here and kind of figure out what's the 0:04:30.760 --> 0:04:32.520 army's mission going forward. First of all, I know the 0:04:32.600 --> 0:04:35.160 Navy is going to project power. I just think the days, 0:04:35.520 --> 0:04:37.440 as Dick Cheney I think said about fifteen years ago, 0:04:37.480 --> 0:04:40.280 the days of US occupying countries with the intent of 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:44.240 trying to deliver democracy and capitalism are just over. Well, 0:04:44.320 --> 0:04:47.679 good before we move on to China and geopolitics in general, 0:04:47.720 --> 0:04:50.600 one more thought on Afghanistan. I was a little surprised that, 0:04:51.360 --> 0:04:53.520 you know, at some point Bidener or Trump or somebody 0:04:53.640 --> 0:04:56.720 just didn't say, look, it's not a war anymore. It's 0:04:56.760 --> 0:04:59.840 a strategically important part of the globe. So we're gonna 0:04:59.839 --> 0:05:02.400 have big old base there, so we're ready to move 0:05:02.480 --> 0:05:06.640 when we need to. Why not that a statement that straightforward? 0:05:07.080 --> 0:05:10.839 Or do you think the geopolitical need isn't that strong? Yeah? 0:05:10.839 --> 0:05:12.960 I think the two reasons. First of all, our messaging 0:05:13.000 --> 0:05:15.760 has been awful when it comes to Afghanistan, and you 0:05:15.800 --> 0:05:17.840 know we're out September eleventh. Looks like we're gonna be 0:05:17.880 --> 0:05:19.840 out here in two weeks for all practical purposes. The 0:05:20.400 --> 0:05:24.360 commander there, Scotty Miller, is someone that knew the mission 0:05:24.360 --> 0:05:26.280 from the beginning, didn't realize it, knew it didn't have 0:05:26.320 --> 0:05:28.719 a timetable. So I think that was the first thing 0:05:28.760 --> 0:05:31.080 that I think. The second reason is because we've just 0:05:31.240 --> 0:05:34.480 built this over the horizon standoff military now where we 0:05:34.520 --> 0:05:37.880 don't feel that we need logistical basis in places like this, 0:05:38.000 --> 0:05:40.000 I think we're gonna be proven wrong. I think that 0:05:40.200 --> 0:05:41.600 that would have been a great idea to keep this 0:05:41.680 --> 0:05:44.520 arabase and keep these kind of lily pads that exist 0:05:44.920 --> 0:05:47.400 either in the ocean or in in certain land masses, 0:05:47.440 --> 0:05:49.080 because we have no friends now in that part of 0:05:49.080 --> 0:05:51.680 the world. We don't have any in Pakistan. We're not 0:05:51.760 --> 0:05:54.160 doing anything obviously in India and a like and Diego 0:05:54.200 --> 0:05:56.719 Garcia is a long long ways away, and we store 0:05:56.839 --> 0:05:59.760 P fifty two is there? I think, I think again, 0:06:00.560 --> 0:06:03.240 you know, we we've we've built this over the horizon 0:06:03.360 --> 0:06:05.719 military with drones, and we were taking the human element 0:06:05.720 --> 0:06:06.880 out of it. And I think that's how we think 0:06:06.920 --> 0:06:08.479 we're going to defend. I think it's going to prove 0:06:08.520 --> 0:06:10.880 to be full harding when it comes to strategic things 0:06:10.920 --> 0:06:12.280 that are going to take place in the future when 0:06:12.279 --> 0:06:15.120 we're gonna need to put people on the ground. But 0:06:15.360 --> 0:06:19.599 in general, is this pivot that Barack Obama talked about 0:06:19.920 --> 0:06:23.560 and kind of started and then Trump kind of continued. 0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:26.400 It's amazing how slow it is. So you think this 0:06:26.520 --> 0:06:28.080 is the right thing to do. We just let's stop 0:06:28.160 --> 0:06:31.320 talking about these sand countries. We produce our own oil now, 0:06:31.720 --> 0:06:34.479 and let's look at the real threat to the future, 0:06:34.560 --> 0:06:37.560 like the next hundred years China. So that just that 0:06:38.400 --> 0:06:40.960 general pivot of our attention you think is a good idea. 0:06:41.600 --> 0:06:44.600 It is, it's overdue, and I think, um, you know, 0:06:44.720 --> 0:06:47.320 the given the century, the question is this is another 0:06:47.360 --> 0:06:49.560 American century or does it become the century of the 0:06:49.680 --> 0:06:53.000 Chinese and some of those countries? And and how what 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:57.039 Russia's role in that? Um, what's you look at again 0:06:57.080 --> 0:06:59.599 the South China. See, our navy is going to continue 0:06:59.640 --> 0:07:01.920 to project power for some reason, We're now screwing around 0:07:01.960 --> 0:07:05.200 the Black Sea with Russia trying to you know, bring 0:07:05.320 --> 0:07:07.720 up Ukraine too. That's another issue that's come up on 0:07:07.800 --> 0:07:10.120 this week and here. But but really the focus I 0:07:10.160 --> 0:07:12.360 think everybody I talked to the Pentagon. I talked a 0:07:12.440 --> 0:07:14.120 good friend of mine the other day. He's actually back 0:07:14.160 --> 0:07:16.520 at the Armed Services Committee, sent Armed Services Committee back 0:07:16.560 --> 0:07:18.080 in the desk and he's back at the China desk, 0:07:18.640 --> 0:07:20.760 and I'm just glad he's there because he's a smart guy. 0:07:20.800 --> 0:07:23.240 And he says, that's exactly where our focus has got 0:07:23.320 --> 0:07:24.880 to be, at least for the next four years. Build 0:07:24.960 --> 0:07:28.120 up enough military presence there that projects enough power that 0:07:28.200 --> 0:07:31.520 the Chinese don't want to do anything that will upset 0:07:31.560 --> 0:07:33.680 the trade balance. And upset. What will be you know, 0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:36.080 the world economy and that's what's at risk right now. 0:07:36.680 --> 0:07:39.200 Military analyst Mike Lions on the line, Mike, I realized 0:07:39.200 --> 0:07:42.160 you could probably write a seven page book about this question. 0:07:42.240 --> 0:07:45.960 The answer to the question. But uh, comparing contrast China 0:07:46.080 --> 0:07:48.920 and the US in terms of military hardware and also 0:07:48.960 --> 0:07:53.520 in terms of training this actual battle experience. Uh, you 0:07:53.600 --> 0:07:58.320 know what adaptability? How did the two forces compare well? 0:07:58.520 --> 0:08:02.520 So the last two war or the US came prepared? 0:08:03.080 --> 0:08:05.880 I thought, both does aer Storm and then in Afghanistan 0:08:05.960 --> 0:08:07.760 and the run up to in the Rock. And what 0:08:07.880 --> 0:08:09.560 I mean by that is we didn't have what's called 0:08:09.600 --> 0:08:12.400 the Task Force Smith. And that took place in Korea 0:08:12.640 --> 0:08:15.680 during the Korean War when the military was just unprepared. 0:08:15.720 --> 0:08:18.600 After the Second World War, so the military has learned 0:08:18.640 --> 0:08:21.400 it's less than about preparedness and being ready to go 0:08:21.840 --> 0:08:24.000 right away out of the gate. What's the question is 0:08:24.360 --> 0:08:27.160 how much hardware now do we have comparative to the Chinese. 0:08:27.200 --> 0:08:29.760 The Chinese still don't really have this great navy. They 0:08:29.800 --> 0:08:32.280 have one aircraft carry there. They've got they project power 0:08:32.320 --> 0:08:35.320 in some ways, but they have a much larger land force. 0:08:35.400 --> 0:08:38.520 They have much more mass, let's say, and much more equipment, 0:08:38.640 --> 0:08:40.439 and I just don't see us facing off in that 0:08:40.559 --> 0:08:43.360 realm anyway. Um, but I do think the days of 0:08:43.440 --> 0:08:46.360 the U. S. Military being not prepared are over and 0:08:46.600 --> 0:08:48.839 and in some ways, UM, that's always gonna be a 0:08:48.880 --> 0:08:51.400 good thing. And if as long as we fight ferociously 0:08:51.480 --> 0:08:54.040 and fight the way that we're trained to do, I 0:08:54.280 --> 0:08:57.240 think will be okay. Once should something arise, either on 0:08:57.960 --> 0:09:00.120 in Eastern Europe, let's say, the Russians, or either are 0:09:00.160 --> 0:09:03.880 somewhere in China and the South China. See interesting stuff. 0:09:03.960 --> 0:09:07.880 Mike always come away from these conversations wishing we could 0:09:07.880 --> 0:09:10.319 talk all day. But uh, maybe we'll invite you on 0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:13.960 for a podcast for more extended conversations soon. But the guys, 0:09:14.080 --> 0:09:15.559 whatever it takes, I think there's a lot going on 0:09:15.559 --> 0:09:18.559 in the world right now for sir, Amen to that, 0:09:18.679 --> 0:09:21.000 Mike clients, thanks so much for the time. Really interesting. 0:09:21.160 --> 0:09:24.800 America's so called longest war is gonna be just a 0:09:25.000 --> 0:09:27.480 blip in the history books if ever talked about it 0:09:27.559 --> 0:09:31.360 all twenty years. They're all that money, luckily not too 0:09:31.400 --> 0:09:33.360 many lives. But you know, if it's a loved one 0:09:33.400 --> 0:09:35.319 of yours, it's an, of course, a very huge deal. 0:09:35.440 --> 0:09:39.800 But um yeah, and and you know, outside of the 0:09:39.920 --> 0:09:42.400 first couple of years where we broke up the guys 0:09:42.480 --> 0:09:48.400 that attacked New York what what what, it's just amazing 0:09:48.559 --> 0:09:51.920 the momentum of these projects. And Mike what he said 0:09:51.960 --> 0:09:55.880 there at the very beginning, the military industrial complex wanted 0:09:55.920 --> 0:09:59.400 to test some more equipment, right right. You know. The 0:09:59.559 --> 0:10:03.480 really distressing part of it to me is what we've 0:10:03.800 --> 0:10:06.439 brought up a couple of times through the years. The 0:10:06.640 --> 0:10:10.880 messaging to the American people has to be so oversimplified 0:10:11.000 --> 0:10:14.720 to the point of being stupid, that our leaders either 0:10:14.840 --> 0:10:17.920 can't or feel like they can't level with us and say, look, 0:10:17.960 --> 0:10:20.080 you know, it's stop being a war a long time ago. Now, 0:10:20.120 --> 0:10:22.360 we're just trying to pop prop up this government until 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:24.480 they're strong enough to stand on their own. It's not 0:10:24.679 --> 0:10:27.120 looking great. We're gonna stick with it for another six months. 0:10:27.160 --> 0:10:29.079 If it doesn't work, we're out. We're gonna keep a 0:10:29.160 --> 0:10:32.319 base there because the region is super important. Pakistan is 0:10:32.320 --> 0:10:34.960 a bunch of maniacs with nuclear arms and they're right 0:10:35.080 --> 0:10:37.160 next door, and if we need to jump from there, 0:10:37.200 --> 0:10:39.240 it's a good place to jump from. That that's not 0:10:39.480 --> 0:10:43.520 that complicated. But no, it's our longest war. You know 0:10:43.559 --> 0:10:46.480 it could come on. I don't you know. Plenty of 0:10:46.559 --> 0:10:49.480 you are that's stupid. Not you, not not our audience, 0:10:49.520 --> 0:10:53.040 the American people, But you're not you faults. You're obviously brilliant, 0:10:53.160 --> 0:10:55.800 But to come on it, do we have to dumb 0:10:55.960 --> 0:10:58.599 down our messaging that month. I've been saying this for 0:10:58.840 --> 0:11:02.960 years with Democrats and Republicans. I don't think you're gonna 0:11:03.040 --> 0:11:06.199 take the political hit you're worried about if you get 0:11:06.200 --> 0:11:08.680 out of Afghanistan. If you say what Joe just said, 0:11:08.840 --> 0:11:10.559 I don't think your poll numbers are gonna crash. I 0:11:10.600 --> 0:11:13.199 don't think anybody's gonna run against you on that. Nobody's 0:11:13.600 --> 0:11:16.480 any attention. They're gonna say, Okay, that's interesting. What about 0:11:16.760 --> 0:11:19.280 a homeless or schools or whatever issue they care about. 0:11:19.559 --> 0:11:23.360 Nobody's talking about Afghanistan. Yeah, you're probably right in this case. 0:11:23.400 --> 0:11:25.360 I was gonna say somebody will't run against you and say, 0:11:25.400 --> 0:11:28.040 looking at me, he's cutting and running, But even that 0:11:28.360 --> 0:11:30.319 is so tired at this point. You're right now. I 0:11:30.400 --> 0:11:32.640 agree with you, who right, left or center would react 0:11:32.679 --> 0:11:37.440 to that cutting and running from Afghanistan? And if there 0:11:37.559 --> 0:11:40.160 wasn't the weren't so much blood and treasure involved. It 0:11:40.320 --> 0:11:44.360 just be hilarious, just the stupidity again of the messaging, 0:11:44.400 --> 0:11:46.240 but it's not at all. We had to do a 0:11:46.320 --> 0:11:49.199 podcast with Laura Logan because you know she she went 0:11:49.240 --> 0:11:51.800 to Afghanistan all those years and have her on to 0:11:51.880 --> 0:11:55.199 talk about the high point when they had the most 0:11:55.360 --> 0:11:58.480 miles of roads paved and the most schools opening, all 0:11:58.520 --> 0:12:00.640 that stuff. The high point. This is where it is 0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:02.040 now and versus where it's going to be in a 0:12:02.160 --> 0:12:06.680 year from now. All that just completely wasted. You could 0:12:06.760 --> 0:12:09.600 drive from the airport to Kabul to walk the streets 0:12:09.679 --> 0:12:12.079 and greet the locals. That was a brief period of 0:12:12.120 --> 0:12:13.880 time that we paid a lot of money for. We 0:12:14.120 --> 0:12:16.040 US taxpayers paid a lot of money for and just 0:12:16.200 --> 0:12:17.200 it's over, It's gone.