1
00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:03,760
Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

2
00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,760
Speaker 2: It is good without further ado.

3
00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:12,200
Speaker 3: That's what the game's all about.

4
00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:15,000
Speaker 1: All of a sudden, you feel like you can't miss.

5
00:00:19,720 --> 00:00:20,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna up there.

6
00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:25,760
Speaker 3: If you try that again, absolutely trying to.

7
00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:33,760
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast NBA Edition. I'm Matt Moore,

8
00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:36,880
Speaker 1: Senior NBA writer for the Action Network. Join as always

9
00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:42,000
Speaker 1: by Raheem Palmer and Brandon Anderson bringing you the best

10
00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:45,400
Speaker 1: NBA information on futures. We're gonna talk about a number

11
00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:48,320
Speaker 1: of things today, all odds brought to you by bet MGM,

12
00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:51,159
Speaker 1: the official odds provider of the Action Network. While you're here,

13
00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:54,200
Speaker 1: make sure to download and subscribe, rate and review. Our

14
00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:56,880
Speaker 1: podcast helps us out so much and you can get

15
00:00:56,960 --> 00:00:59,880
Speaker 1: great Other shows like our golf show are able to

16
00:00:59,880 --> 00:01:02,040
Speaker 1: be show the NFL Draft is over, so you can

17
00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:03,920
Speaker 1: get in the futures. Make sure to check out the

18
00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:06,920
Speaker 1: favorites as well with Simon Hunter and Chad Millman. That

19
00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:10,080
Speaker 1: show is awesome. Check out that as well. Also make

20
00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:13,039
Speaker 1: sure to follow us on Twitter at Action Network HQ.

21
00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:16,080
Speaker 1: You can check out stuff like our Twitter spaces, which

22
00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:18,320
Speaker 1: pretty sure that we're gonna be doing an MVP Twitter

23
00:01:18,319 --> 00:01:21,240
Speaker 1: space at some point this week or next week as well,

24
00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:24,240
Speaker 1: as we'll be doing complete playoff coverage giving you some rooms,

25
00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:27,119
Speaker 1: especially on the play in tournament on Twitter spaces. Make

26
00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:30,720
Speaker 1: sure to check that out. On today's show, we're going

27
00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:33,480
Speaker 1: to give you our thoughts on the betting the playoffs,

28
00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:35,720
Speaker 1: about what are the spots that we look for, how

29
00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:38,640
Speaker 1: do we position ourselves as betters in a playoff environment

30
00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:41,200
Speaker 1: given the amount of options that we have now versus

31
00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:43,800
Speaker 1: what we used to have before things opened up in

32
00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:46,840
Speaker 1: the US being legal. We will also go back to

33
00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:50,360
Speaker 1: the future and talk exclusively about the Los Angeles Lakers

34
00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:54,360
Speaker 1: and the very bizarre position that we are in with

35
00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:56,960
Speaker 1: the Lakers and where I am at with a number

36
00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:58,920
Speaker 1: of futures trying to figure out what I need to do.

37
00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:01,480
Speaker 1: We also are producing a new segment this week called

38
00:02:01,760 --> 00:02:04,400
Speaker 1: the Victory Lap. Why because I do the show with

39
00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:08,919
Speaker 1: Rahieven and Brandon and I'm always like another one, another

40
00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:11,079
Speaker 1: victory lap. So we add an entire segment. So I'm

41
00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:14,360
Speaker 1: trying to quarantine their victory lapping to one segment. We'll

42
00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:17,480
Speaker 1: see if we can do that as well. All right, guys,

43
00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:19,280
Speaker 1: let's kick it off with our marquee.

44
00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:22,919
Speaker 4: The Marquee I can hear the shutter.

45
00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:25,440
Speaker 1: From the crowd, so our marque. This week, we want

46
00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:27,079
Speaker 1: to talk about the NBA playoffs and we're talking about

47
00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:30,040
Speaker 1: this more from a betting construct perspective. So what are

48
00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:33,320
Speaker 1: the spots that you're specifically looking for because everybody has

49
00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:36,520
Speaker 1: like a number of things obviously before we get started,

50
00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:38,480
Speaker 1: it's important to get the best of the number. You

51
00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:41,480
Speaker 1: can do that by following the Action Network on Twitter

52
00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:44,119
Speaker 1: to ge all of our information, as well as downloading

53
00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:46,800
Speaker 1: the Action Network app. With all of our analysis, we'll

54
00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:49,519
Speaker 1: have things like, hey, you know, when the lines first

55
00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:51,840
Speaker 1: come out on Sunday night, you're gonna start getting serious

56
00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:55,480
Speaker 1: prices either Sunday night or Monday after the playoffs end

57
00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:58,480
Speaker 1: at that point, like, there will be opportunities early where

58
00:02:58,919 --> 00:03:02,120
Speaker 1: every year there's a price that does not look like

59
00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:04,239
Speaker 1: it's right, and that's you want to be able to

60
00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:06,440
Speaker 1: get it on that. You want to get closing line value,

61
00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:09,920
Speaker 1: even on series prices versus games. And you can do

62
00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:12,880
Speaker 1: all that if you downloaded the Action Network app. Let's

63
00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:16,400
Speaker 1: start with Raheem. So, Rahiem, how does I know that

64
00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:18,280
Speaker 1: everything you do is built off of your model?

65
00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:19,120
Speaker 3: Yeah?

66
00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:22,880
Speaker 1: How does that change if at all in the playoffs

67
00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:25,120
Speaker 1: in terms of do you look to angle more towards

68
00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:27,840
Speaker 1: series prices, are you looking to bet games? Do you

69
00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:30,560
Speaker 1: want to wait until after a series has started and

70
00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:32,800
Speaker 1: then see if you can find overreaction in the market.

71
00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:34,600
Speaker 1: What's your general approach in the playoffs?

72
00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:38,400
Speaker 3: I mean it depends. It varies based on series of series.

73
00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:41,600
Speaker 4: Like there's certain series where if I think a team's

74
00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:44,160
Speaker 4: gonna win game one and I like them for the series,

75
00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:46,320
Speaker 4: I'm trying to be the first one in the market.

76
00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:49,640
Speaker 4: Now there's other series, like I'll give you example, like

77
00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:53,760
Speaker 4: the Nuggets played the Spurs in twenty nineteen. I like

78
00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:56,800
Speaker 4: the Spurs for game one, but I like the Nuggets

79
00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:59,680
Speaker 4: for the series, So I bet the Spurs game one

80
00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:01,840
Speaker 4: and came back on the Nuggets.

81
00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:04,440
Speaker 3: So it's just all of like a series by series thing.

82
00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:07,680
Speaker 4: And then also, I think adjustments are such a big

83
00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:10,960
Speaker 4: part of the playoffs. So you'll be watching the series

84
00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:13,480
Speaker 4: and you might like one team before the series start,

85
00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:17,000
Speaker 4: and then you see an adjustment and that totally changes

86
00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:19,359
Speaker 4: the series. Like I think one of the biggest adjustments

87
00:04:19,400 --> 00:04:22,680
Speaker 4: that I've seen in a playoff series was Golden.

88
00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:23,560
Speaker 3: State versus Memphis.

89
00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:26,320
Speaker 4: I think Ron Adams decided that, you know what, we're

90
00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:29,320
Speaker 4: not gonna guard Tony Allen, and once they did that,

91
00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:33,080
Speaker 4: the Grizzlies were drawing dead. So and then it allows

92
00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:35,599
Speaker 4: you to you can say, you know what, I'm gonna

93
00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:38,480
Speaker 4: bet the series price and through the series, and then

94
00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:40,200
Speaker 4: I'm gonna bet every game in that series.

95
00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:43,080
Speaker 3: So it's really it depends on the series how you

96
00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:44,200
Speaker 3: approach it.

97
00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:47,520
Speaker 4: But I think if you like a team and you

98
00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:50,320
Speaker 4: know their favorite, you gotta jump out right away and

99
00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:52,040
Speaker 4: try to bet that as soon as possible.

100
00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:56,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think that's really a point about

101
00:04:57,120 --> 00:04:58,640
Speaker 1: if you like them in game one and you like

102
00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:00,080
Speaker 1: to do in the series, like that's where you're going

103
00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:02,680
Speaker 1: to get the best value, right like immediately after if

104
00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:05,400
Speaker 1: a favorite loses that game one. Now I will say,

105
00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:07,360
Speaker 1: like there are times if it's a heavy favorite, you

106
00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:09,560
Speaker 1: can wait. I don't know that you're gonna get a

107
00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:13,359
Speaker 1: better number. You know you might if you like a

108
00:05:13,400 --> 00:05:16,320
Speaker 1: team to upset them in game one and to win

109
00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:19,680
Speaker 1: the series if they come if the favorite comes back

110
00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:22,080
Speaker 1: and wins game two, you might still be able to

111
00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:23,880
Speaker 1: get a better numbers. Sometimes the market will react to

112
00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:26,200
Speaker 1: be like, Okay, they're not down oh two, they've already

113
00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:28,640
Speaker 1: won a game out of the four that they need,

114
00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:30,360
Speaker 1: you might be able to get a better price there.

115
00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:34,000
Speaker 1: So I think that's that's something to consider, Brandon, Is

116
00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:35,839
Speaker 1: there anything that you can really identify as far as

117
00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:38,160
Speaker 1: when we go into this year's playoffs, because this is

118
00:05:38,200 --> 00:05:39,480
Speaker 1: the year that I think we have like the most

119
00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:41,640
Speaker 1: options available to us. I'm excited to see what cove.

120
00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:44,279
Speaker 1: I mean, we're already seeing stuff right the bet MGM

121
00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:46,839
Speaker 1: has up. We've talked about this. They have what round

122
00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:49,960
Speaker 1: will different teams be eliminated in? That's such a great bet, Like,

123
00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:51,560
Speaker 1: that's the kind of betting that I want to be

124
00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:53,839
Speaker 1: able to get down. Like I'm probably gonna go ahead

125
00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:57,480
Speaker 1: and put down Jazz to lose in the semi finals

126
00:05:57,520 --> 00:06:00,880
Speaker 1: plus two twenty five this week. And I'm trying to

127
00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:02,880
Speaker 1: figure out if there's a scenario where I would not

128
00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:08,360
Speaker 1: want their second round opponent, and I can't think of

129
00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:11,280
Speaker 1: a scenario, Like the only one I can really find

130
00:06:11,360 --> 00:06:14,640
Speaker 1: is if they get the one seed and the Nuggets

131
00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:18,480
Speaker 1: get the four and the Mavericks get the five, that

132
00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:22,800
Speaker 1: I might not want to bet against the Jazz in

133
00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:25,840
Speaker 1: the second round. Even then I probably take the right,

134
00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:28,200
Speaker 1: but it's it's gonna be tough. Brandon, Do you have

135
00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:31,760
Speaker 1: what is your general thoughts on your approach for the playoffs?

136
00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:35,920
Speaker 5: Well, one specific thing I thought of as Raheem was

137
00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:38,960
Speaker 5: talking to I really like it, and I don't know.

138
00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:42,520
Speaker 5: I don't know if I believe that this will work

139
00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:45,359
Speaker 5: well in this year's playoffs, because I don't know exactly

140
00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:47,479
Speaker 5: how the home court thing is going to hold up

141
00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:51,680
Speaker 5: this season compared to normal playoffs. But I love when

142
00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:55,240
Speaker 5: there's an underdog I like in the series, and I

143
00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:58,320
Speaker 5: love when you watch them and you see the first game,

144
00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:01,000
Speaker 5: like one of those first two games, they just get run.

145
00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:04,520
Speaker 5: They lose by like fifteen or twenty, you know, the favorite,

146
00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:06,839
Speaker 5: the home team like just hits a ton of shots,

147
00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:09,160
Speaker 5: and it just happened this basketball. You hit a bunch

148
00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:10,680
Speaker 5: of shots, you win by a bunch of points. So

149
00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:14,080
Speaker 5: it goes and then like maybe the underdog gets really

150
00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:16,680
Speaker 5: close but loses one of the games, so now it's

151
00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:21,600
Speaker 5: two oh. And at that point, inevitably, every time the

152
00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:25,640
Speaker 5: series is over, everyone goes crazy. It's two nothing bury

153
00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:29,880
Speaker 5: the underdog. The team is dead and like we always

154
00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:32,600
Speaker 5: hear the thing, like the playoff series doesn't start until

155
00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:36,960
Speaker 5: the home team loses, and I think that's a little overstated,

156
00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:39,520
Speaker 5: but in that case, like if there's an underdog that

157
00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:44,640
Speaker 5: I really like, and like if they get blown out

158
00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:46,800
Speaker 5: game one and make a game of it in game two,

159
00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,360
Speaker 5: I'm just like licking my chops at that opportunity of like, Okay,

160
00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:53,000
Speaker 5: this seems about to go home. We got the yo

161
00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:56,560
Speaker 5: yo effect, like I'm gonna bet big on game three,

162
00:07:56,640 --> 00:07:58,720
Speaker 5: Like they're gonna get that game three. This is the

163
00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:01,600
Speaker 5: season on the line, versus like it'd be nice to

164
00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:03,640
Speaker 5: close these guys out early, And it's just not the

165
00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:07,640
Speaker 5: same motivation factor. And it's also a great spot to

166
00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:10,280
Speaker 5: bet the series, even though they've got to win four

167
00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:13,440
Speaker 5: to five. They have three home games and then they

168
00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:15,040
Speaker 5: have to win one out of two road games if

169
00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:16,960
Speaker 5: they get the home games, and if you really like

170
00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:20,480
Speaker 5: the underdog better, like it's not a given to win

171
00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:22,960
Speaker 5: those three home games, but it's it's not as dire

172
00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:24,760
Speaker 5: of a spot as it looks. It's not as dire

173
00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:26,480
Speaker 5: of a spot as the books tend to make it.

174
00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:31,160
Speaker 5: I was thinking back, I can't remember what year was.

175
00:08:31,400 --> 00:08:35,480
Speaker 5: I feel like it was like two thousand twelve or

176
00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:38,600
Speaker 5: fifteen or it's been a while, but one of my

177
00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:41,839
Speaker 5: best calls that I made is when the Spurs came

178
00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:44,440
Speaker 5: into the playoffs absolutely on fire. They had like a

179
00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:47,480
Speaker 5: big winning streak entering the playoffs, and they won. They

180
00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:50,040
Speaker 5: swept the first round, they swept the second round, and

181
00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:51,600
Speaker 5: they went up two well on the Thunder in the

182
00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:54,720
Speaker 5: Western Conference finals. So they're ten in the playoffs and

183
00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:57,080
Speaker 5: I like the Thunder coming to that matchup. I remember

184
00:08:57,160 --> 00:08:58,840
Speaker 5: just you know that these are the old Thunder with

185
00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:01,720
Speaker 5: all the good players on, and I like the athleticism.

186
00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:04,319
Speaker 5: I like the matchup. And I can't remember right now

187
00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:06,520
Speaker 5: what it was, but something in game two. I remember

188
00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:08,560
Speaker 5: it like it was a blowout and it was garbage

189
00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:10,560
Speaker 5: time and there was a switch. There was like a

190
00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:13,400
Speaker 5: different lineup or something the Thunder did, and I remember

191
00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:17,200
Speaker 5: being like, man, that could work like that, that they

192
00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:22,559
Speaker 5: might have just found something there. And so undefeated Spurs

193
00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:27,240
Speaker 5: ten and O I called Thunder and six because that

194
00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:30,280
Speaker 5: sounds crazy, but all it really meant was Thunder win

195
00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:33,040
Speaker 5: their home games and then take the one other away.

196
00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:33,600
Speaker 3: Game in between.

197
00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:37,080
Speaker 5: And it was like the Spurs had been on like

198
00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:40,440
Speaker 5: a twenty something game win streak and At that point,

199
00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:42,439
Speaker 5: people were like, man, are the Spurs gonna go sixteen

200
00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:43,760
Speaker 5: to no orre this gonna sweep.

201
00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:44,360
Speaker 3: Through the whole playoffs.

202
00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:47,400
Speaker 5: They never won another game that season, and it all

203
00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:51,000
Speaker 5: keyed on that one lineup adjustment that we saw in

204
00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:53,600
Speaker 5: Game two and then the home switch from Game two

205
00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:56,520
Speaker 5: to Game three, And I think just like that kind

206
00:09:56,520 --> 00:10:00,480
Speaker 5: of the yo yo effect possibility, the lineup adjustment possi ability,

207
00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:02,960
Speaker 5: and just like looking for the ad you where we

208
00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:05,720
Speaker 5: love to bury teams. We love to see one huge

209
00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:07,640
Speaker 5: wet and just be like, oh, that's it, that team

210
00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:10,760
Speaker 5: was done, and teams just bounce back so much so

211
00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:13,160
Speaker 5: I'm I was looking for that bounce back opportunity.

212
00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:17,040
Speaker 4: You you touched on something that was probably the greatest

213
00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:20,960
Speaker 4: sports betting angle in the twenty first century. I don't

214
00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:23,400
Speaker 4: know if you capitalized on it, but there was a

215
00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:26,320
Speaker 4: period of time for like the last five years where

216
00:10:26,840 --> 00:10:30,680
Speaker 4: if you backed home teams down two in the first

217
00:10:30,800 --> 00:10:34,800
Speaker 4: quarter in the first half, you hit at such a

218
00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:37,320
Speaker 4: you probably hit at around a ninety eight percent rate,

219
00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:40,400
Speaker 4: to the point where odds makers have now priced it in.

220
00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:46,000
Speaker 4: So let's just say the Suns are playing the Jazz

221
00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:48,880
Speaker 4: and they're up two oh. Now the Sons are playing

222
00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:53,840
Speaker 4: the Lakers, they're up to oh coming back, the spread

223
00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:56,080
Speaker 4: for the full game and then the spread for the

224
00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:59,000
Speaker 4: first half would be the exact same, So you'd have

225
00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:02,199
Speaker 4: the Lakers lane five for the full game and then

226
00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:04,120
Speaker 4: five for the first half. And that's the one thing

227
00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:06,320
Speaker 4: we didn't see during the bubble, which I kind of

228
00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:08,559
Speaker 4: missed because there was no venue change.

229
00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:11,560
Speaker 3: But that's an angle that you know, a lot.

230
00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:14,559
Speaker 4: Of people have been capitalizing for like the last five

231
00:11:14,679 --> 00:11:16,760
Speaker 4: six years, and then even with them priced it in,

232
00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:21,400
Speaker 4: it's still not enough, like it was insane. Like it's

233
00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:26,280
Speaker 4: just actually I'm interested in seeing if that's gonna you know,

234
00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:28,040
Speaker 4: if it's gonna play out the same win.

235
00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:28,880
Speaker 3: It has in the past.

236
00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:31,440
Speaker 1: Right, So like the you know, lack of fans, Yeah,

237
00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:33,199
Speaker 1: because like you know, Dame yesterday is like, so we're

238
00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:35,280
Speaker 1: like gonna be the only team without fans? Huh? Is

239
00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:37,640
Speaker 1: Portland's or Oregon still holding out on a lot of

240
00:11:37,640 --> 00:11:40,280
Speaker 1: other restrictions, which you know, between you and me, I'm

241
00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:44,000
Speaker 1: kind of like I understand it, though, I think that's

242
00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:45,440
Speaker 1: it is kind of interesting, right. It's like it's like

243
00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:47,960
Speaker 1: watching these teams and when they go home, what the

244
00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:50,880
Speaker 1: environment is going to be like will be a lot different,

245
00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:56,720
Speaker 1: especially like I'm expecting for second round, Like I can

246
00:11:56,800 --> 00:12:01,280
Speaker 1: see there the I could see capacity being back up

247
00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:03,720
Speaker 1: to like ten in a lot of places. And if

248
00:12:03,760 --> 00:12:05,200
Speaker 1: it's back up to if it's back up to like

249
00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:10,280
Speaker 1: ten for the Lakers in round two, yeah, Like that's

250
00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:12,360
Speaker 1: because the Lakers are like, this is gonna be exciting, right,

251
00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:14,360
Speaker 1: Like the Lakers are gonna be on the road to

252
00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:17,320
Speaker 1: start almost every series, which means that you're gonna like

253
00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:19,600
Speaker 1: that's maybe something that I'm going to key in on

254
00:12:19,880 --> 00:12:22,440
Speaker 1: is if the Lakers have to go on the road

255
00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:24,040
Speaker 1: for every series, and we'll talk about them and there

256
00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:26,520
Speaker 1: are general problems in a little bit, but if they

257
00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:28,599
Speaker 1: start to look healthy and suddenly like, oh hey, the

258
00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:32,240
Speaker 1: Lakers look pretty good now, like shock of all shocks, uh,

259
00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:35,000
Speaker 1: going on the road, Like you would expect them, if

260
00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:38,000
Speaker 1: they were the favorite, as they would be in most seasons,

261
00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:41,000
Speaker 1: to win the first two games at home and then

262
00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:44,040
Speaker 1: drop either three or four, right, and then go on

263
00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:46,480
Speaker 1: to win the series. So if we flip it, like

264
00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:48,320
Speaker 1: you should expect them to drop one of the first

265
00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:50,960
Speaker 1: two and then go back home and when the and

266
00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:52,720
Speaker 1: win the two. So this is going to be a

267
00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:55,000
Speaker 1: spot where with the Lakers specifically, I think you'll be

268
00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:58,440
Speaker 1: able to maybe find an edge betting what the series

269
00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:01,000
Speaker 1: price is at after those first two games. And then

270
00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:02,720
Speaker 1: you do have teams that think that are gonna be

271
00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:07,640
Speaker 1: without a high number of fans, especially in large cities,

272
00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:09,760
Speaker 1: are gonna have a really hard time with those capacity

273
00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:13,880
Speaker 1: issues because of the threat of another surge. And so

274
00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:16,640
Speaker 1: you have to the factor that in versus like, you know,

275
00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:20,720
Speaker 1: the heat. I wouldn't be surprised if its full capacity

276
00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:23,280
Speaker 1: for Game three for the heat, right, like if the

277
00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:27,960
Speaker 1: heat wind up in the playoffs. So, by the way,

278
00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:30,640
Speaker 1: you have to brandon for victory lapping five minutes into

279
00:13:30,640 --> 00:13:32,720
Speaker 1: the podcast. So I'm gonna go ahead and I'm gonna

280
00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:35,360
Speaker 1: I'm gonna victory lap right now. So last year I

281
00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:37,240
Speaker 1: hit two big ones. I also was on this first

282
00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:41,000
Speaker 1: twenty twelve Thunder series. You mentioned the lineup change. For me,

283
00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:45,120
Speaker 1: it was this was the lesson to me. What you

284
00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:49,240
Speaker 1: want to do is you have to watch the losses.

285
00:13:49,520 --> 00:13:51,040
Speaker 1: And the reason like you can't turn it off and

286
00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:53,040
Speaker 1: be like, ah, it's over, Like go do that, okay,

287
00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:56,720
Speaker 1: because if you're watching that game you will sometimes find

288
00:13:57,120 --> 00:14:01,160
Speaker 1: small stuff that a team finds in a loss that

289
00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:05,800
Speaker 1: can carry over. The Spurs and Thunder in that game too,

290
00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:09,840
Speaker 1: as everyone was like burying, okayc I was like, I

291
00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:13,680
Speaker 1: think they found something here because what they started doing

292
00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:16,640
Speaker 1: was Westbrook started getting into the elbow and just taking

293
00:14:16,640 --> 00:14:19,080
Speaker 1: the pull up jumper instead of trying to attack the room.

294
00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:22,280
Speaker 1: Now you're thinking, like, but Russ is a horrible shooter, Okay,

295
00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:24,040
Speaker 1: but he didn't used to be. He used to be

296
00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:26,200
Speaker 1: an inconsistent shooter when he was younger and had a

297
00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:28,520
Speaker 1: lot more lift in his legs. But he could hit

298
00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:31,000
Speaker 1: that and the Spurs were giving him so much space

299
00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:33,800
Speaker 1: that when he started to hit that, everything changed in

300
00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:36,000
Speaker 1: terms of the Spurs defense. They started panicking trying to

301
00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:38,160
Speaker 1: figure out how to cover it, and that opened up

302
00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:40,200
Speaker 1: other things. And there was also like them playing a

303
00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:42,440
Speaker 1: paka like changed a lot in that series as well,

304
00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:44,880
Speaker 1: Like there was just like these things that shifted in

305
00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:47,640
Speaker 1: that series. You could have done the same thing last

306
00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:52,200
Speaker 1: year with Denver, right, So this is stuff that's in hindsight.

307
00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:55,640
Speaker 1: I took Denver Versus the Jazz the Mice one ninety

308
00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:58,080
Speaker 1: five on the series price before the series started and

309
00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:00,160
Speaker 1: by Game three I was already like, well, that's just

310
00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:04,440
Speaker 1: a lost cause. But I will say this, like in

311
00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:08,160
Speaker 1: Game four, when the Jazz went up three to one,

312
00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:11,800
Speaker 1: they won, but it was a really close game. It

313
00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:13,880
Speaker 1: wasn't the blowout the Game three was, which was an

314
00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:17,080
Speaker 1: abject disaster for the Nuggets, like Game four was. They

315
00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:18,960
Speaker 1: came out, they put together a really good effort and

316
00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:21,200
Speaker 1: you could tell that they had figured out some stuff.

317
00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:24,160
Speaker 1: Like the Jazz won that game, but it felt more

318
00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:27,040
Speaker 1: like that, like that's a game you can look back

319
00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:29,560
Speaker 1: and say the tide is turned, but it's also like

320
00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:32,520
Speaker 1: the Jazz could have easily won that series. But I

321
00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:34,680
Speaker 1: do think you can find these kind of spots if

322
00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:36,560
Speaker 1: you do have an instinct and you go like, all right,

323
00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:38,800
Speaker 1: they can turn this. You have to factor in how

324
00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:42,720
Speaker 1: much you trust that coach to implement those changes. I

325
00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:45,680
Speaker 1: wrote this week on Action Network a big article up

326
00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:48,600
Speaker 1: on the site about the differences between regular season teams

327
00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:52,640
Speaker 1: and playoff teams, and it's got a bunch of things

328
00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:55,640
Speaker 1: that I'm I look at every year, but especially now

329
00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:58,200
Speaker 1: this year. We actually have the metrics to be able

330
00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:01,320
Speaker 1: to identify these teams. So the things I talked about

331
00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:03,760
Speaker 1: were how much do you use drop defense, because if

332
00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:06,240
Speaker 1: you only use drop defense, you're not really in a

333
00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:08,720
Speaker 1: comfort zone to be able to do other things. Sometimes

334
00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:11,120
Speaker 1: you just literally can't because you'll get torched every time.

335
00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:13,840
Speaker 1: Like the Sixers are an interesting question in this regard

336
00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:19,320
Speaker 1: because the Sixers run what's called an ice soft coverage,

337
00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:21,160
Speaker 1: which means what they do is they drop and be

338
00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:24,000
Speaker 1: back and pick and roll, and they try and push

339
00:16:24,040 --> 00:16:26,960
Speaker 1: everything away from the middle to make it tough for

340
00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:28,080
Speaker 1: you to get in the middle. Because if you're in

341
00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:29,640
Speaker 1: the middle, you can pass to either side, you can

342
00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:31,800
Speaker 1: shoot the little float of the middle. They're trying to

343
00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:33,560
Speaker 1: force you away from the middle of l points and

344
00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:38,240
Speaker 1: then embat is dropping to protect the rim. So that's

345
00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:40,320
Speaker 1: like a drop coverage and you should be able to

346
00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:42,640
Speaker 1: get some shots off. But the Sixers have really good

347
00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:45,440
Speaker 1: guards at getting over screens and contesting, and so the

348
00:16:45,520 --> 00:16:48,480
Speaker 1: question is, like, if they run into a spot where

349
00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:50,760
Speaker 1: they are not able to get over those screens and

350
00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:55,240
Speaker 1: they're facing like an elite ball handling threat, are you

351
00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:57,040
Speaker 1: going are they going to be able to switch up

352
00:16:57,040 --> 00:17:00,560
Speaker 1: their coverage enough to get the stop that they need.

353
00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:03,880
Speaker 1: Like that's a really interesting question. Boston's probably the most

354
00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:06,359
Speaker 1: interesting team from this perspective, but Atlanta I think falls

355
00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:09,720
Speaker 1: into this category as well. Like as much as I

356
00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:12,879
Speaker 1: think it'd be easy to just bet against the Hawks

357
00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:16,639
Speaker 1: in this regard, look if they can't get over the

358
00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:18,960
Speaker 1: screen on Trey Young, and you're giving Trey Young all

359
00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:22,920
Speaker 1: sorts of space, that could get tough, like Trey's got

360
00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:26,119
Speaker 1: the ability to go off consistently, So that's an like,

361
00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:28,080
Speaker 1: these are little things. And even if don't want about

362
00:17:28,080 --> 00:17:31,200
Speaker 1: the series price, the last thing I'd say is I

363
00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:34,440
Speaker 1: really like when they have the differences and wins. It's

364
00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:38,959
Speaker 1: basically windspread, right, So minus one and a half is

365
00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:42,680
Speaker 1: if you think that they're gonna win by if either

366
00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:45,280
Speaker 1: they're gonna win three one or four to one, right

367
00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:49,240
Speaker 1: or four two. Rather if a six game win is

368
00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:51,719
Speaker 1: minus one and a half, that gives you that differential

369
00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:54,359
Speaker 1: plus if you take the plus on it, it gives

370
00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:56,000
Speaker 1: you a little bit of room. So like the Nuggets

371
00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:58,760
Speaker 1: last year versus the Clippers, I bet the Nuggets to

372
00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:02,040
Speaker 1: win the series. But my bigger bet was on the Nuggets.

373
00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:04,399
Speaker 1: I think plus two and a half was the number

374
00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:06,520
Speaker 1: because they really expected the Clippers to just beat them.

375
00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:10,240
Speaker 1: Down and so getting those types of numbers, watch out

376
00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:11,760
Speaker 1: for those, and again you can find those on Action

377
00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:14,480
Speaker 1: Network will have all those numbers up on the site.

378
00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:17,800
Speaker 4: I think the one thing I like about playoffs basketball

379
00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:21,960
Speaker 4: is you know, I bet NFL too, And the one

380
00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:27,240
Speaker 4: thing about NFL is that the public has its say yeah,

381
00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:31,600
Speaker 4: on a regular you know, regular season game at one pm,

382
00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:34,760
Speaker 4: the public is gonna create an inefficiency in the market,

383
00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:37,600
Speaker 4: and it's not the same for an NBA game.

384
00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:41,359
Speaker 3: Like at all until the playoffs.

385
00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:45,240
Speaker 4: So it's just there's gonna be times during the playoffs

386
00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:46,840
Speaker 4: where it's like I mean, I think the last two

387
00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:49,879
Speaker 4: years I was able to get edges on teams that

388
00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:52,800
Speaker 4: the public really liked. I know, the most famous one

389
00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:56,600
Speaker 4: for me is, you know, Raptors versus Bucks for me

390
00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:59,560
Speaker 4: and I hate the victory lab, but the Raptors were

391
00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:04,040
Speaker 4: down two and I literally, you know, I bet them

392
00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:07,080
Speaker 4: to win the series after Game two, and then I

393
00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:09,680
Speaker 4: bet them every single game and the line kept moving

394
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:12,840
Speaker 4: against me. So I think at one point I was

395
00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:15,879
Speaker 4: able to get the Raptors as eight point dogs in

396
00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:19,640
Speaker 4: Game five and then get them at like plus.

397
00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:22,879
Speaker 3: Three sixty in which should have been a pick them

398
00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:23,119
Speaker 3: for me.

399
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,240
Speaker 4: And then obviously last year with the Celtics in the heat,

400
00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:28,800
Speaker 4: it was just like the public were just overwhelmingly on

401
00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:31,480
Speaker 4: the Heat and I mean on Celtics. And then the

402
00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:34,919
Speaker 4: funny thing about that series to me was that the

403
00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:36,400
Speaker 4: Celtics power rating was.

404
00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:41,399
Speaker 3: Going up after losses and there was no venue.

405
00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:46,800
Speaker 1: Change because they outplayed them, right, they outplayed them. I'm

406
00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,560
Speaker 1: still so mad. I also, look, I will never I'm

407
00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:53,719
Speaker 1: never ever gonna get over Fred van Bleet in that

408
00:19:53,800 --> 00:20:00,159
Speaker 1: series versus the Bugs, the nemesis Fred van Bliat. I

409
00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:02,480
Speaker 1: get it. I understand why you're so proud of yourself

410
00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:05,520
Speaker 1: and that I will go down like, Okay, here's the difference.

411
00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:08,000
Speaker 1: There are Bucks employees who don't think they were the

412
00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:10,640
Speaker 1: best team in that series, and I argue with them

413
00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:13,480
Speaker 1: for their own team, being like, no, no, no, you should

414
00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:13,840
Speaker 1: have won.

415
00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:17,320
Speaker 3: This was Seth. You had this argument with Seth.

416
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:20,480
Speaker 1: No other folks, okay, because.

417
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:21,320
Speaker 3: I had this conversation.

418
00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:24,160
Speaker 4: I had this conversation with Seth about I say, about

419
00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:27,880
Speaker 4: a year ago, and I was telling him. I was like, yo,

420
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:29,800
Speaker 4: that's a fifty to fifty series and I mean, to me,

421
00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:34,760
Speaker 4: the Raptor should have won Game one, like you remember

422
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:37,760
Speaker 4: Game one, the Raptors weren't leading the entire game until

423
00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:41,200
Speaker 4: the fourth quarter and they ran out of gas, largely

424
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,840
Speaker 4: because they played a seven game series against the Sixers.

425
00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:47,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, so well, that's actually kind of interesting as a

426
00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:51,280
Speaker 1: separate point, Yeah, because we can draw parallel between that

427
00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:56,159
Speaker 1: and twenty thirteen Warriors Nuggets, where the Warriors were leading

428
00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:59,640
Speaker 1: almost the entire game and Andre Miller made a spinning

429
00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:03,479
Speaker 1: verse layup for the Nuggets to win Game one, and

430
00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:05,800
Speaker 1: like there was a sense afterwards of like the comic

431
00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:07,680
Speaker 1: consensus was like, oh, wow, the Warriors put up a

432
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:09,240
Speaker 1: good fight, but you know, the Nuggets still want so

433
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 1: they're fine, they'll play better. Like I do wonder we

434
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 1: need to actually go back and like look at this

435
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,520
Speaker 1: in bet labs and find out what you can find

436
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:21,000
Speaker 1: on Action network dot com and find out if a

437
00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:26,000
Speaker 1: team is leading after three quarters in game one as

438
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:28,960
Speaker 1: a dog, how often they win the series.

439
00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 3: And it is a good that's a good thing to

440
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:32,480
Speaker 3: track that Bucks game.

441
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:36,360
Speaker 5: I was at that game one, and I remember not

442
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:39,399
Speaker 5: being a fan of either team, but basically, you know,

443
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 5: Milwaukee is relatively a local team and it was exciting

444
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:46,639
Speaker 5: young Bocks team. Giannis's first chance. So we my buddy

445
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 5: and I was kind of rooting for the Box part

446
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:50,479
Speaker 5: of the home crowd, the frenzy, and it was their

447
00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:53,840
Speaker 5: first big opportunity. And I remember just like throughout the game,

448
00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:56,840
Speaker 5: I was looking at each other like this might not

449
00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:59,440
Speaker 5: be a fun exit strategy for us, Like this is

450
00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:03,000
Speaker 5: not going a while. And but like brook Lopez scored

451
00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:05,720
Speaker 5: like thirty points or something. He just kept hitting over

452
00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 5: and over, and then at the end you're leaving, you're like, man.

453
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:10,680
Speaker 3: It's the Brook Lopez game.

454
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:13,359
Speaker 5: The Bucks, they just have so many weapons, Like even

455
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:15,960
Speaker 5: when Johannis didn't play well and Middleton didn't hit chocks,

456
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 5: but Brooke came through, and you, like you, you spin

457
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:22,280
Speaker 5: the narrative to yourself to be like, oh yeah, the

458
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:24,680
Speaker 5: Bucks head all the way. Even when they didn't play well,

459
00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 5: Lopez came through. When that wasn't the lesson. The lesson

460
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:31,120
Speaker 5: actually was, yeah, this is gonna be a tough series.

461
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:33,919
Speaker 1: I don't know, I just I always go back to

462
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:41,800
Speaker 1: the real difference in that series was shooting. The Bucks

463
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 1: scheme was built to try and it's it's not accurate

464
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:49,880
Speaker 1: to say they just lead guys wide open. They want

465
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 1: to target specific shooters, and so they stayed home on

466
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:55,440
Speaker 1: lowry that This is a I found this crazy one

467
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 1: when I went back and looked at last year's Bucks

468
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 1: Heat series, and like we were all on the Heat

469
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 1: that series. Everybody at Action was on the Heat that series.

470
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 1: We were on that on that from like we knew

471
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,880
Speaker 1: in before the bubble we were gonna betting that series.

472
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 1: So we're all on it. But the key was like

473
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:19,960
Speaker 1: if I told you the Heat beat the Bucks with shooting,

474
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:22,879
Speaker 1: and I and you, I said, who do you think

475
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 1: made the threes? Your answer would be Duncan Robinson, right

476
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:31,640
Speaker 1: spot up shooter, the best in the league. Jay Crowder

477
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 1: made more threes than Duncan Robinson. The Bucks guarded Duncan

478
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:39,359
Speaker 1: Robinson really well, that's the difference with the Bucks and

479
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 1: their drop sky. Now this year, I will say this,

480
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 1: we talk a lot about this team. I do think

481
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:46,960
Speaker 1: you need to be more cautious with betting against Milwaukee

482
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 1: this year from the perspective of they are. They have

483
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:57,400
Speaker 1: diversified their coverage so much. Eric Nemover at the Athletic

484
00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 1: has tried documenting this and like he's gonna be going

485
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:03,080
Speaker 1: back and being like I said this said this still

486
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:06,160
Speaker 1: he'll be victory lapping because I don't think he thinks

487
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 1: they're gonna win right, because they do have a lot

488
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:10,359
Speaker 1: of other issues. But I do think that they are

489
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:13,359
Speaker 1: fundamentally a different team with Drew, and I think that

490
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:14,919
Speaker 1: they are a different team in terms of how much

491
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 1: they've changed up their scheme, like they have tried different lineups,

492
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,440
Speaker 1: different combos, and that's a big reason why they beat

493
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:23,680
Speaker 1: the Nets in these two games. These are regular season

494
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:26,880
Speaker 1: games without Harden, I get it, But don't be surprised

495
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:30,200
Speaker 1: if Milwaukee is a lot better than people expect because

496
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 1: they have they have put the work in to get

497
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:38,160
Speaker 1: used to this, to playing other schemes. A big reason

498
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:42,200
Speaker 1: why coaches don't change their scheme is because they'd rather

499
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:46,000
Speaker 1: be great at what they do than okay at a

500
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 1: lot of things. And a key part of my argument

501
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 1: in the article I wrote was that you'd rather be

502
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 1: be pretty good to okay at a bunch of different

503
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:58,680
Speaker 1: things than great at a scheme that exposes you. This

504
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 1: is the Jazz problem.

505
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:02,400
Speaker 3: Yeah.

506
00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 5: Well, one thing Matt that I took away from your

507
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 5: article very good. Definitely make sure you go read everyone.

508
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:11,639
Speaker 5: I thought that it was really interesting. The conclusions you

509
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:16,119
Speaker 5: drew on the nets, as are we collectively still underrating

510
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 5: the Nets a little bit just in their switchability on defense,

511
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 5: giving them a little bit more defensive versatility or upside,

512
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 5: I think, than we're really allowing them. And obviously like

513
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 5: they have the shop makers, they have the guys, you know,

514
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:33,880
Speaker 5: they have a lot of answers that they can give

515
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:36,920
Speaker 5: to the questions other teams will ask of them. And

516
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:40,359
Speaker 5: so in preparation for this today, I was trying to

517
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:43,879
Speaker 5: think what would be my version of your article, Like

518
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:46,400
Speaker 5: what are if I had to list out, what are

519
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 5: my bullet points of These are the things I'm really

520
00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 5: trying to think about, you know, like my playoff manifesto.

521
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 5: These are my five or ten items. And I don't know,

522
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:58,359
Speaker 5: this isn't this is not as well researched as yours,

523
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 5: but some of the things I came up with, like

524
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 5: at the top of my list, I want to see

525
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 5: offensive firepower upside, like I think, as much as anything else.

526
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 5: To me, more than defensive versatility, great offense beats good defense.

527
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 5: And if I have more offensive weapons than your defense

528
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:18,640
Speaker 5: can adjust to, Like if I'm the Warriors, the Old

529
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:22,119
Speaker 5: Warriors or whatever the answer is, you just can't answer

530
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:25,800
Speaker 5: all my questions I'm asking. That's obviously a NETS upside.

531
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:29,159
Speaker 5: There number two, best player on the court. Can I

532
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:31,360
Speaker 5: have a guy just take over the game? If I'm

533
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 5: the NETS, I have two, possibly three guys that can

534
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:37,639
Speaker 5: do that, but certainly two, And in any Eastern Conference,

535
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:39,479
Speaker 5: I have two guys that I would rather have than

536
00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:42,119
Speaker 5: any guy on your team any playoff series until we

537
00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 5: see Jannis or Embiid take that next step, and in

538
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 5: any series unless it's the Lakers in the finals, I

539
00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:51,640
Speaker 5: think I have two guys that'd rather have, probably than

540
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:54,960
Speaker 5: either of your guys, unless if you know, the Nuggets

541
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 5: get there. That's its own thing yo yo effect I

542
00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:01,480
Speaker 5: mentioned earlier three point shooting. Obviously the Nets have huge

543
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 5: amounts of that. Coaching that's a big question mark. I

544
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:06,159
Speaker 5: don't know what the coaching is going to be.

545
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 3: I don't know that the.

546
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 5: Problem with these things is one week week link can

547
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:15,679
Speaker 5: negate all the rest, because coaching can make you have

548
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:18,120
Speaker 5: bad lineups and take away a lot of these other advantages.

549
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:22,120
Speaker 5: But even from there, difficult shot making. That's the NETS strength,

550
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:25,720
Speaker 5: even bench strength. I think that we can overright benches.

551
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 5: But one of the things I was excited about the

552
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:31,440
Speaker 5: Nets when they made the Harden trade was that for

553
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,960
Speaker 5: forty eight playoff minutes of every game, they're going to

554
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:38,919
Speaker 5: have Kyrie or Harden or Durant on the court, like

555
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,400
Speaker 5: you're They're going to play some poor team who has

556
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 5: an actual bench unit in for four minutes or eight minutes,

557
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 5: and Harden is going to be in just carrying them

558
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:50,440
Speaker 5: apart for a few minutes in the second and fourth quarters.

559
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:52,960
Speaker 5: We haven't really seen that play out yet because those

560
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 5: three have never been all together enough for us to

561
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 5: see it. But I think, like, think of those times.

562
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 5: How many Lebron games have you watched for the last

563
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 5: decade where Lebron sits for like ninety seconds of the

564
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 5: whole half and his team loses those ninety seconds by

565
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:10,480
Speaker 5: eight points and that ends up swinging the entire game.

566
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 5: The Nets have the opposite of that, like go ahead,

567
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:16,640
Speaker 5: try go ahead and try to buy one minute against

568
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,200
Speaker 5: our Harden or Durant or Kyrie team.

569
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:20,639
Speaker 3: Is there to me?

570
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:23,679
Speaker 5: The Nets have so many answers to some of these

571
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:27,679
Speaker 5: key questions that I think, from my perspective, agreeing with

572
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 5: you and I think that we're underrating them. I just

573
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:31,960
Speaker 5: think they have a lot of answers that we're gonna be.

574
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:35,359
Speaker 4: Asking of them, you know, when it comes to the nets,

575
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,120
Speaker 4: I think, and obviously they're dropping down to the two seed.

576
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 1: I think.

577
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 3: I speak about this a lot, but.

578
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 4: I truly believe in the accumulative the cumulative impact of

579
00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 4: certain series. Like I wrote last year on the Action

580
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 4: Network about teams to go seven game series.

581
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:53,640
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna give you some numbers.

582
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 4: Teams that play in a seven game series and win

583
00:28:56,760 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 4: game seven, they're thirty two and forty seven straight up

584
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 4: in game one of the.

585
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:03,000
Speaker 3: Followings following series.

586
00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 4: Teams that win game seven are thirty three and forty

587
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 4: six straight up in the following series altogether.

588
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 3: So so it's just like that's and that's one of

589
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:15,200
Speaker 3: the reasons why I like Miami.

590
00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 4: Last year, because the Celtics played a tough seven game

591
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 4: series and I weighed some of that into that series.

592
00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 4: You know, I always always look at twenty sixteen, what

593
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,240
Speaker 4: if the Warriors didn't play Oklahoma City had to go

594
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 4: to seven games and the Calves did. Like the Calves

595
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:35,920
Speaker 4: came off a series against the Raptors in which it

596
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 4: was a six game series, but they I mean, they

597
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 4: won by one of the biggest point differentials in Eastern

598
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:45,200
Speaker 4: Conference Finals history, while the Warriors were struggling. So I

599
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 4: weigh that in. So with the Nets likely having to

600
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 4: go through the Bucks and the Sixers and then you

601
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 4: know whoever is in the West, I'm dropping them down

602
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 4: a step just because I just don't believe that any

603
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 4: team can truly go through that that.

604
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 3: Much and make it through.

605
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 1: If you're wondering after these two games versus the Nets,

606
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 1: where the Bucks looked really impressive, like this with these

607
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:12,360
Speaker 1: were really good wins. Katie and Kyrie played. I know,

608
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 1: no Harden, but Katie and Kyrie played, and the Bucks

609
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 1: still won both games and looked great in both games.

610
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 1: If you're wondering, like how to evaluate that, I will

611
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 1: say this throw out regular season record. The key is

612
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 1: don't pay attention to the win loss record. If you

613
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:32,800
Speaker 1: have time, which many of you listening actually have jobs

614
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,560
Speaker 1: to do. But if you have time, go back and

615
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:38,960
Speaker 1: watch the games, because what you're really looking for is

616
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 1: you're trying to identify matchup problems because there's a lot

617
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,640
Speaker 1: of times where you'll be like this is what I

618
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:49,920
Speaker 1: found last year was you would have situations where the

619
00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 1: starters would absolutely beat the snot out of the other

620
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 1: team in all their matchups. Like if they played four

621
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 1: times starters, they would win the first quarter every time,

622
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 1: but the bench would give up those leads and then

623
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 1: it'd be back and forth and the other team would

624
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 1: win like a close one. But the difference is in

625
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 1: the playoff series, you're not going to have those extended

626
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 1: bench minutes. You're not going to have those extended bench

627
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 1: line minutes, especially even if it starts off early. Like

628
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 1: pay attention to coaching decisions right, Like some coaches will

629
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 1: be like, no, no, we've this lineup's been good for

630
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 1: us all year. Like that's the question I have with

631
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 1: Monny Williams. Is you got Campaign and Cam Johnson in

632
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:30,040
Speaker 1: their first playoff appearance. Are they gonna trust those lineups?

633
00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:33,480
Speaker 1: Or is MANI gonna stagger everything if he staggers them.

634
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 1: And we're gonna know real early, like the game one

635
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:38,480
Speaker 1: of the Sun's first round series, which is probably gonna

636
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 1: be pretty tough considering the teams that are in, We're

637
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 1: gonna know pretty quick. We will know pretty quick if

638
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 1: if Williams is gonna be a coach that we can

639
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 1: trust in those situations. We've never seen Minnie Williams as

640
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 1: a favorite great coach. Never seen him in this spot,

641
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:53,080
Speaker 1: and that's hard.

642
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 4: Payne never played on thost Oklahoma City teams in the playoffs.

643
00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess he probably did. I forget how how

644
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:02,719
Speaker 1: how years Pain's been in the league because I'm old.

645
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, he was on that he was on that two

646
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 3: thousand and six sixteen team.

647
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:08,959
Speaker 1: Then you know, blew a three to one league, right regardless,

648
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 1: I don't think he's played this kind of a role, right,

649
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:12,960
Speaker 1: and the ever played like this kind of a role.

650
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 1: So you got Pain, you got Cam Johnson, but you

651
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 1: also like, look, you even got Michail Bridges and guys

652
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 1: like that, so you got more inexperience all the way through.

653
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 1: Can you trust lineups that don't feature Chris? Like the

654
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:26,000
Speaker 1: question about Booker and Aidan is an entirely different one.

655
00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 1: What we're really talking about is like Sarich and Chris

656
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 1: and the other vets on that team and Crowder, can

657
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 1: you can you trust those lineups without him? So this

658
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 1: is all stuff that you've got to consider that. This

659
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:38,080
Speaker 1: has been really good. I love like, this is a

660
00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 1: great segment. I'm happy we did this. We'll have more

661
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 1: for you on the playoffs. As we get closer, this.

662
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 2: Is Action Network podcast producer Matt Mitchell here to tell

663
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 2: you our friends at bet mgm have a great news

664
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 2: sign up offer for our listeners, a six hundred dollars

665
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 2: risk free first bet. Here's how it works. If you

666
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 2: don't already have an account at bet mgm, just sign up,

667
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:02,959
Speaker 2: make your first deposit and place that initial wager. If

668
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 2: the bet wins, you get all the money. If it

669
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:08,960
Speaker 2: doesn't win, bet mgm will refund you in free bets

670
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 2: up to six hundred dollars.

671
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 3: It's that simple.

672
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 2: Just click on the link in this episode description to

673
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 2: get started. Bet mgm has been a great podcast partner,

674
00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:20,240
Speaker 2: and they've got all the features gamblers like us love,

675
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:24,000
Speaker 2: like live betting and daily odds boosts past They're compatible

676
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:27,240
Speaker 2: with Betsinc. So when you place a wager at betmgm,

677
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 2: that bet can automatically be tracked in your Action app.

678
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 2: So open an account today and make your first bet

679
00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:35,880
Speaker 2: risk free up to six hundred dollars. Just click on

680
00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 2: the link in this episode description to get started. Must

681
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:41,280
Speaker 2: be twenty one or older and physically located in Michigan,

682
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 2: New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia and Iowa, Virginia, Tennessee, Nevada, Pennsylvania.

683
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 2: Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem called one eight hundred and

684
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:51,120
Speaker 2: five two to two forty seven hundred in Colorado and Nevada.

685
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:54,000
Speaker 2: One eight hundred gambler in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, in West Virginia,

686
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 2: one eight hundred and nine with it in Indiana, one

687
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:58,000
Speaker 2: eight hundred and two seven zero seven to one one

688
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:00,160
Speaker 2: seven in Michigan, one eight hundred and eight nine nine

689
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 2: nine in Tennessee. One one hundred bets off in Iowa or.

690
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:05,400
Speaker 4: Virginia.

691
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 2: That's sin not available in the data. Thanks for listening.

692
00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 2: Now back to the show.

693
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 1: For right now, it's time to go back to the future.

694
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:28,280
Speaker 1: Back to the future time gs. The Los Angeles Lakers

695
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,960
Speaker 1: were quote a broken team according to Daman Menhiman of

696
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 1: the of ESBN after their loss to the Raptors on

697
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:37,000
Speaker 1: Sunday night, and so of course without Lebron James, they

698
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 1: turn around and they beat the Nuggets on Monday. As

699
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:44,959
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis, after taking a brutal and vicious hit from

700
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:52,440
Speaker 1: five to nine, Faku Compazo screamed, we're back to the crowd.

701
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 1: Here's where we're at. With the Lakers. They are currently

702
00:34:56,120 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 1: tied for the fifth seed with the Dallas Mavericks. The

703
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:04,280
Speaker 1: Maverick own tiebreaker. The Mavericks play the Nets this week.

704
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:06,720
Speaker 1: The Lakers have a back to back versus the Clippers

705
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 1: and Blazers. Lebron James will not play an either game.

706
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 1: The Blazers game is especially massive. The winner of that

707
00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 1: game wins tiebreaker. If the Lakers were to lose that game,

708
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 1: their odds of sliding in the play into the play

709
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 1: in game go up considerably. Now look like there's a

710
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:29,280
Speaker 1: lot of ways that the Lakers can still get the five.

711
00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:33,319
Speaker 1: Our projections right now still have them at the five seed.

712
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:37,279
Speaker 1: We have a new system up on Action Network. It's

713
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 1: a playoff picture. It actually we're simming every game and

714
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:41,920
Speaker 1: getting you an idea what the matchups are supposed to be. See,

715
00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 1: you can start thinking ahead on these matchups, and it

716
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:46,240
Speaker 1: also gives you an idea of what how much motivation

717
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:53,719
Speaker 1: teams have every night. My question for you, Brandon, I

718
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:57,600
Speaker 1: have a lot of Lakers futures. I have like a

719
00:35:57,680 --> 00:36:00,920
Speaker 1: lot of Lakers' futures, and I don't know whether to

720
00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:05,560
Speaker 1: add or hedge at this point. What do you think?

721
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:12,400
Speaker 5: Yeah, I I am not adding Lakers futures right now,

722
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:18,600
Speaker 5: and I don't I don't know if I'm hedging, but

723
00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 5: I'm not adding Lakers' futures for sure, even though I don't,

724
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:24,400
Speaker 5: you know that, I don't know that you're ever going

725
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:27,360
Speaker 5: to get better odds than that twenty four hour cycle

726
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:30,840
Speaker 5: on Sunday when like the sky was falling and everything

727
00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:33,719
Speaker 5: was terrible and we had one glorious day where the

728
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 5: Lakers might not win the championship before everything fixed itself again.

729
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:40,800
Speaker 5: I think that was probably that the lowest the odds

730
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:44,880
Speaker 5: are going to be. But I'm starting to wonder the

731
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 5: Lakers are starting to remind me a little bit of

732
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 5: last year's Clippers team, where they had the two superstars,

733
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:54,719
Speaker 5: but they never really played together all year.

734
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:55,840
Speaker 3: We never really got.

735
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:57,960
Speaker 5: To see what that team was supposed to be. And

736
00:36:58,000 --> 00:36:59,759
Speaker 5: of course our answer to that is, yeah, but we

737
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:01,719
Speaker 5: know what the Lakers team is. We just watched them

738
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 5: in the championship. But we know what Lebron and Davis are,

739
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:07,759
Speaker 5: But the rest of the team around them, a lot

740
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 5: of the guys around them are different this year, and

741
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:13,720
Speaker 5: we haven't really had a chance to see this version

742
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 5: of the team, like really figure itself out. We're not

743
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:18,719
Speaker 5: going to get a chance to see at all in

744
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 5: the regular season now because we don't know what Lebron

745
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 5: we're gonna get. We know Shrewder is out now probably

746
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:29,680
Speaker 5: until the playoffs. We haven't really seen not just the chemistry,

747
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 5: but also like that that like winning mentality of backs

748
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:35,680
Speaker 5: against the wall and what are you going to do?

749
00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 3: How did the new pieces fit in?

750
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:40,560
Speaker 5: How to you know, we're still asking a lot of

751
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:42,840
Speaker 5: questions of like who's the big man that's going to

752
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 5: actually be out there? Do they do they remember that

753
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:47,640
Speaker 5: marcusol is on the team, They remember the other night

754
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 5: it worked out pretty well for them. We'll see if

755
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:53,400
Speaker 5: they remembers on the playoff roster. And like I just

756
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:55,440
Speaker 5: remember with the Clippers at the end of the season

757
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:58,360
Speaker 5: last year, looking back, it just seems so obvious. It

758
00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 5: was like, yeah, of course, of course, of course the Clippers,

759
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:05,400
Speaker 5: it just was it never worked. It wasn't the right season.

760
00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 5: They were never healthy, they didn't have the chemistry that

761
00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:10,520
Speaker 5: you know, we had all the reasons in the world,

762
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:13,479
Speaker 5: but we never thought it. All seas along, all seas along,

763
00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:15,640
Speaker 5: we just keeping for the Clippers to become the Clippers,

764
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:17,520
Speaker 5: the team we thought they should be in the playoffs,

765
00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:23,239
Speaker 5: and I just am wondering if the Lakers might be that.

766
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:26,719
Speaker 5: And like Raheiem, you talk a lot about the cumulative

767
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:29,400
Speaker 5: effect of how the playoffs are going to add up.

768
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 5: We've got a Lakers team coming in almost unquestionably at

769
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:35,520
Speaker 5: a low point whenever they come into the playoffs, and

770
00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:35,879
Speaker 5: they're not.

771
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:36,880
Speaker 3: Going to miss the playoffs.

772
00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:39,320
Speaker 5: If they follow the play in whatever, they're going to

773
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:41,919
Speaker 5: beat the Grizzlies or the Spurs or someone like. It's

774
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:44,319
Speaker 5: going to make their seed wears. But it is going

775
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:46,719
Speaker 5: to add to that cultive effect. It's going to be

776
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:50,480
Speaker 5: a team that's already banged up, adding more mileage, more games,

777
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 5: more Lebron on his ankle. I'm still worried about Anthony

778
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 5: Davis and that calf achilles thing, Like at one moment

779
00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:02,760
Speaker 5: at any game, and he's just done, Like any moment

780
00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 5: at any point where that pops at all. And I'm

781
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:07,239
Speaker 5: not saying torn achilles or anything, just a little bit

782
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:07,880
Speaker 5: a little strain.

783
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:10,120
Speaker 3: He's done. I don't think we're gonna see him again

784
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:10,520
Speaker 3: this year.

785
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:14,440
Speaker 5: And like I'm either one of those guys I feel

786
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 5: like on any night at this point, one of those

787
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:19,760
Speaker 5: two stars could have that little tweak of an injury

788
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 5: and be like, yeah, that's gonna be a month, and

789
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:24,440
Speaker 5: I think the other one goes and the Lakers are

790
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 5: just like, all right, this season's a wrap. This didn't

791
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:29,799
Speaker 5: happen for us. Put it in bubble wrap. Let's try

792
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:33,400
Speaker 5: to get next year. I'm just starting to see way

793
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:36,960
Speaker 5: more reasons why this isn't going to happen. The reason

794
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:40,200
Speaker 5: why it is going to happen is still Lebron. Lebron

795
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:43,120
Speaker 5: over the last ten years in the playoffs has lost

796
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:48,680
Speaker 5: to the Warriors, the Spurs end of list. So if

797
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:51,400
Speaker 5: they get to the playoffs and they have Lebron, I

798
00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:53,120
Speaker 5: don't want to fade them.

799
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:54,040
Speaker 3: But I'm not.

800
00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:57,120
Speaker 5: Adding to my position because I guess I'm fading them.

801
00:39:57,719 --> 00:40:00,959
Speaker 5: But I'm not feeling great about the lakers chances right now.

802
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:06,640
Speaker 1: Raahim, I need to know your thoughts on this. I

803
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 1: will tell you this. If you bet the Lakers to

804
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:16,719
Speaker 1: win the title every season every season since two thousand,

805
00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:20,279
Speaker 1: if you've bet one hundred bucks every season blind on

806
00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:24,279
Speaker 1: the Lakers, you'd be up three hundred and five dollars.

807
00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:27,319
Speaker 1: That's with everything else that's gone wrong, you'd be up

808
00:40:27,360 --> 00:40:29,879
Speaker 1: three oh five. I get the ROI is not great

809
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:32,080
Speaker 1: on that. Let's say you take out the last like

810
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:38,279
Speaker 1: four years of absolute the pre Lebron mediocrity, right, your

811
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:40,360
Speaker 1: margin is plus seven hundred.

812
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:42,880
Speaker 3: I mean that's still impressive defect.

813
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:46,839
Speaker 4: That you're betting one team to win the championship every year,

814
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 4: every year, every year.

815
00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 1: Since two thousand. So like this is the thing like

816
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:55,799
Speaker 1: Ken Barklay once told me, bet the narrative in the

817
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:58,080
Speaker 1: NBA and has been in my head ever since. It

818
00:40:58,120 --> 00:41:00,520
Speaker 1: has not escaped from my cranium. It is still in

819
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:03,399
Speaker 1: my super Bowl cortex, just bouncing around like a ping

820
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:07,200
Speaker 1: pong ball. I just can't get over the idea that

821
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:12,440
Speaker 1: everyone's like, maybe it's just not this year. Lebron's not healthy.

822
00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:15,160
Speaker 1: I don't know, can they do this? And then they

823
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:16,320
Speaker 1: do it because.

824
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:21,000
Speaker 4: There's a Lakers Basically, we're asking the question, can Lebron

825
00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 4: come in and improve the Lakers' offense because the Lakers

826
00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:27,640
Speaker 4: already have They still have the second rate defense in

827
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:30,600
Speaker 4: the league. They're second in defensive rating. You know, they're

828
00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 4: given up one hundred and seven points per one of

829
00:41:32,080 --> 00:41:35,920
Speaker 4: possessions even without Lebron and Anthony Davis. So they just

830
00:41:36,000 --> 00:41:37,880
Speaker 4: need Lebron to come in and be able to score.

831
00:41:38,080 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 4: And I don't know if that's asking too much, Like

832
00:41:42,360 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 4: I really don't. So it's like, I look at this,

833
00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 4: this plus four sixty, and I do think there's some

834
00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:52,319
Speaker 4: value there. Now, obviously I like the Clippers, but it's

835
00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 4: just with the Nuggets. The Nuggets are pretty much eliminated

836
00:41:56,680 --> 00:42:00,840
Speaker 4: from contention. They're not a contender anymore. We never believed

837
00:42:00,840 --> 00:42:04,719
Speaker 4: in the Jazz. So as long as they avoid the Clippers.

838
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 4: And I mean, I love the Suns, but we have

839
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 4: questions about their youth and many Williams and it might

840
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 4: be too much too soon, So to me, as long

841
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:16,960
Speaker 4: as they avoid the Clippers, they can be anybody in

842
00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:21,319
Speaker 4: the West. So I think at plus four sixty, I

843
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 4: kind of want to jump in myself.

844
00:42:24,520 --> 00:42:26,000
Speaker 3: Here's my counterpoint.

845
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:29,239
Speaker 5: If you are the guy that bat one on the

846
00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:32,560
Speaker 5: Lakers blind to win the title every year, you are

847
00:42:32,680 --> 00:42:35,520
Speaker 5: up three hundred dollars, but you are a loser of

848
00:42:35,560 --> 00:42:36,920
Speaker 5: a person that I don't want to be.

849
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 1: This is where we need to answer that gift of

850
00:42:44,000 --> 00:42:50,480
Speaker 1: that guy with the chain going the Lakers. Oh my god,

851
00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:55,080
Speaker 1: I think it's tough because let's look at it from

852
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:58,319
Speaker 1: what we just talked about with the playoffs, Okay, what

853
00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:02,279
Speaker 1: is the team that we feel has the answers to

854
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:06,360
Speaker 1: beat the Lakers? Like, here's here's a really big issue.

855
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:11,160
Speaker 1: You want three point shooting, you want size to manage

856
00:43:11,160 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 1: their physicality, you need a superstar to be able to

857
00:43:14,760 --> 00:43:18,719
Speaker 1: rise up and hit shots, you need good coaching. This

858
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:23,640
Speaker 1: sounds a lot like the Utah Jazz. So the question

859
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 1: then is like, because who else are we talking about here?

860
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:31,319
Speaker 1: Like I understand being skeptical on the Lakers. Maybe this

861
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:33,320
Speaker 1: is the move Brandon. Maybe we can find a compromise.

862
00:43:33,719 --> 00:43:36,080
Speaker 1: Maybe I need a ship, like because I'm already so

863
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:39,320
Speaker 1: much in on the finals matchup available at bet MGM

864
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:42,720
Speaker 1: of Nets Lakers, Like maybe this is just more reason

865
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:46,400
Speaker 1: to bet into the Nets more with the idea of

866
00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:50,440
Speaker 1: like bet the Nets and the Lakers to win the West, right, Like,

867
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:53,319
Speaker 1: here's the question in the Western Conferences? Do you think

868
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:57,359
Speaker 1: the Phoenix Suns can beat the Lakers? Like, Noel, No, no,

869
00:43:57,480 --> 00:43:59,359
Speaker 1: not can't. Do you think the Phoenix Suns will beat

870
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:02,200
Speaker 1: the Lakers? They can? There's this I can see it,

871
00:44:02,880 --> 00:44:06,879
Speaker 1: but like if it's Suns Lakers in a Western Conference Finals?

872
00:44:07,120 --> 00:44:08,879
Speaker 1: Are you going to be able to talk yourself into

873
00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 1: betting the Suns even at a number that is not inefficient,

874
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:15,719
Speaker 1: Like if you're able, if you're not like that the

875
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:18,040
Speaker 1: numbers too good, if you're looking at it and you're like, no,

876
00:44:18,080 --> 00:44:21,440
Speaker 1: that numbers priced correctly, but I still want the Suns.

877
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:24,920
Speaker 5: So I think my answer, and I don't know this

878
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 5: is the right answer, but my answer to this question

879
00:44:28,280 --> 00:44:31,360
Speaker 5: is that we're framing the question wrong. I think for me,

880
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:34,960
Speaker 5: the question is not who is going to beat the Lakers.

881
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:38,480
Speaker 5: To me, the question is Lakers versus the field and

882
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:41,840
Speaker 5: Lakers versus themselves. And I think if we are talking

883
00:44:41,840 --> 00:44:47,239
Speaker 5: about the Capital All Capitals Lakers and they're healthy and

884
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:49,960
Speaker 5: Lebron and Davis are healthy and they are what they

885
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:52,359
Speaker 5: look like last year, then no one's going to beat

886
00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:52,960
Speaker 5: the Lakers.

887
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:54,520
Speaker 3: There's not that other team.

888
00:44:54,880 --> 00:44:56,840
Speaker 5: And I might even include the Nets in that, because

889
00:44:56,840 --> 00:45:00,760
Speaker 5: you're gonna get this team like one awesome defense versus

890
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:02,560
Speaker 5: another one that we don't know if they're gonna show

891
00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:05,040
Speaker 5: up again. How many finals have we seen this one

892
00:45:05,360 --> 00:45:08,000
Speaker 5: elite offense run into an all around team, and the

893
00:45:08,000 --> 00:45:10,839
Speaker 5: all around team always wins in the end. If it's

894
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:14,399
Speaker 5: the All Caps Lakers. Then no, I don't know who

895
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:16,760
Speaker 5: the team is. It's not the Jazz, it's not the Suns,

896
00:45:16,760 --> 00:45:19,480
Speaker 5: it's not anybody. I don't think there's anyone that's going

897
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:24,040
Speaker 5: to beat that Lakers team. That the mystical mystifying what

898
00:45:24,080 --> 00:45:27,359
Speaker 5: we think the Lakers are. My case is that I

899
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:28,160
Speaker 5: don't think they are.

900
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:33,439
Speaker 1: That Brandon Anderson is a hater and somebody's gotta beat them.

901
00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:35,399
Speaker 1: You can say the field, but you gotta be able

902
00:45:35,400 --> 00:45:37,920
Speaker 1: to identify if you're taking the field. You still have

903
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:40,280
Speaker 1: to feel like the teams they are actually gonna face

904
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:42,719
Speaker 1: are gonna be able to beat them.

905
00:45:43,120 --> 00:45:45,400
Speaker 5: Yes, But but the series that I think they lose,

906
00:45:45,440 --> 00:45:47,560
Speaker 5: this is what I think it looks like. I think

907
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:51,440
Speaker 5: it looks like because I'm betting, because I'm feeling like

908
00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:54,800
Speaker 5: the injury and the accumulation factor. I think the series

909
00:45:54,840 --> 00:45:59,320
Speaker 5: they lose looks like Anthony Davis, you know, like tweak

910
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:02,600
Speaker 5: something and misses a game, and then they lose that game,

911
00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:05,759
Speaker 5: and then there's another game where Davis comes back and

912
00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:09,040
Speaker 5: has like seven points and doesn't look himself. And then

913
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:11,880
Speaker 5: there's the game where Lebron has that look on his

914
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:15,839
Speaker 5: face that We've seen another series where he's like, this

915
00:46:15,920 --> 00:46:18,279
Speaker 5: team doesn't give me enough help. He's got that look

916
00:46:18,320 --> 00:46:21,120
Speaker 5: on his face for the entire game where he knows,

917
00:46:21,160 --> 00:46:23,040
Speaker 5: he's got the look in his eyes like this team

918
00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:26,840
Speaker 5: ain't at and I know it's happened, Like that's the

919
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:30,080
Speaker 5: series looks like I don't see what the other jersey

920
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:33,600
Speaker 5: is because I see the Lakers not hitting it.

921
00:46:34,120 --> 00:46:36,239
Speaker 1: Even if they don't have it, you still got to

922
00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 1: be better than them. They will still, Like I guess

923
00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:44,239
Speaker 1: here's an example of this, Brandon, the two thousand and

924
00:46:46,080 --> 00:46:53,200
Speaker 1: eighteen yeah, eighteen Calves did not have it like they

925
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:57,759
Speaker 1: did not yeah right, but the finals, but they still

926
00:46:57,760 --> 00:47:01,600
Speaker 1: made the finals. The twenty seventeen Calves honestly didn't have it.

927
00:47:02,640 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 1: Like those were not great teams. They just weren't. They

928
00:47:06,200 --> 00:47:08,120
Speaker 1: weren't very good.

929
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:09,960
Speaker 3: But no, no, no, seventeen.

930
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:12,200
Speaker 4: The twenty seventeen cass had probably won of the best

931
00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:13,279
Speaker 4: offenses I've ever seen.

932
00:47:13,600 --> 00:47:17,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, so like that. Honestly, that Calves team is a

933
00:47:17,239 --> 00:47:20,040
Speaker 1: really good example of what I've like that I've re

934
00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:23,239
Speaker 1: examined that Calves team based off of this research I've

935
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:24,440
Speaker 1: done where one of the things I talked about in

936
00:47:24,440 --> 00:47:27,000
Speaker 1: the article is can you solve the defensive problems? The

937
00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:29,600
Speaker 1: Calves were a bad defensive team that could solve the

938
00:47:29,640 --> 00:47:33,319
Speaker 1: problems in front of them. Yeah. But the twenty eighteen team,

939
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:35,799
Speaker 1: like we know, like they were twenty eighteen, The team

940
00:47:35,840 --> 00:47:36,440
Speaker 1: was garbage.

941
00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:38,200
Speaker 3: I had a lot of.

942
00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:41,120
Speaker 4: Money on that Raptor series and I laid two to one,

943
00:47:41,680 --> 00:47:44,239
Speaker 4: and I could not believe that they got swept, like

944
00:47:44,400 --> 00:47:44,960
Speaker 4: it's one.

945
00:47:44,840 --> 00:47:46,760
Speaker 3: Of it's yeah, oh.

946
00:47:46,640 --> 00:47:50,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, so that So that's the thing, Brandon is like,

947
00:47:50,440 --> 00:47:52,640
Speaker 1: I hear what you're saying, but I still have to

948
00:47:52,680 --> 00:47:54,279
Speaker 1: find a team that I can look at and go

949
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:59,240
Speaker 1: That team is going to be the Los Angeles Lakers

950
00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:00,520
Speaker 1: with Lebron James.

951
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:05,600
Speaker 5: But I think, to me, the answer is this sounds

952
00:48:05,680 --> 00:48:08,560
Speaker 5: ludicrous saying it, but the answer is who.

953
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:09,000
Speaker 3: Is that team?

954
00:48:09,680 --> 00:48:12,960
Speaker 5: Is that team facing the version of the Lakers that

955
00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:15,480
Speaker 5: I'm painting. That team could be the Jazz, It could

956
00:48:15,520 --> 00:48:18,200
Speaker 5: be the Suns, It could be the Clippers, the Mavericks,

957
00:48:18,239 --> 00:48:19,759
Speaker 5: it could be a bunch of these team.

958
00:48:19,800 --> 00:48:22,359
Speaker 4: It's definitely looks it's definitely the Clippers. And I think

959
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:25,080
Speaker 4: that's the thing that scares me away from backing the

960
00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:29,120
Speaker 4: Lakers here, because the Clippers are in a three seat

961
00:48:29,280 --> 00:48:30,960
Speaker 4: and the Lakers are in a six, Like, what if

962
00:48:31,000 --> 00:48:34,920
Speaker 4: that's the first round matchup? Yeah, and that's that's the

963
00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:37,880
Speaker 4: scary thing because if that's the first round matchup.

964
00:48:37,560 --> 00:48:40,279
Speaker 1: Then But here's my counter to that. How many times

965
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:45,719
Speaker 1: an NBA history do the Lakers get bad Luck's let's

966
00:48:45,800 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 1: move on. This has been good able continue to talk

967
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:49,680
Speaker 1: about the Lakers. I still think plus four sixty is

968
00:48:49,680 --> 00:48:52,000
Speaker 1: probably two get a value to not like.

969
00:48:52,040 --> 00:48:53,880
Speaker 4: I said earlier, they have a top They still one

970
00:48:53,920 --> 00:48:55,120
Speaker 4: of the best defenses in the league.

971
00:48:55,160 --> 00:48:56,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, plus five, I mean you're getting four and a

972
00:48:56,560 --> 00:48:58,960
Speaker 1: half to one right now. It's the odds are crazy.

973
00:48:59,040 --> 00:48:59,279
Speaker 3: Right now.

974
00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:01,279
Speaker 5: Let me ask you a quite about the Lakers. So

975
00:49:02,080 --> 00:49:05,600
Speaker 5: what what if this season? What if a quote unquote

976
00:49:05,719 --> 00:49:09,120
Speaker 5: random sort of team wins the title and we'll see random,

977
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:12,040
Speaker 5: We'll say someone like the Jazz or the Suns that

978
00:49:12,440 --> 00:49:15,080
Speaker 5: no like, no one expected them coming to the season

979
00:49:15,160 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 5: to be a true title contender. Even right now, I

980
00:49:17,719 --> 00:49:19,319
Speaker 5: don't think most people are putting them at the top

981
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:22,040
Speaker 5: of the list. What if the outcome of this season

982
00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:25,719
Speaker 5: is a team like the Jazz or the Suns as champions?

983
00:49:26,640 --> 00:49:30,480
Speaker 5: What will how will people look at last year's Lakers title,

984
00:49:30,960 --> 00:49:33,760
Speaker 5: if like, will it be like, oh man, these two

985
00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:37,839
Speaker 5: pandemic seasons, lots of weird stuff happened, and one year

986
00:49:37,960 --> 00:49:39,759
Speaker 5: we got a weird champ and the other year we

987
00:49:39,840 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 5: got a Lakers champ. Like is there an outcome to

988
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:45,360
Speaker 5: this season that would diminish anything about the Lakers or

989
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:46,880
Speaker 5: is it just Lebron and the Lakers?

990
00:49:46,920 --> 00:49:47,880
Speaker 3: And it won't matter now.

991
00:49:48,000 --> 00:49:51,160
Speaker 4: Basically, if you have an agenda, then you're gonna hate

992
00:49:51,160 --> 00:49:54,240
Speaker 4: the Lakers title like you've always done through the last

993
00:49:54,600 --> 00:49:57,319
Speaker 4: four or five six months. If you don't, then the

994
00:49:57,440 --> 00:49:59,920
Speaker 4: champions the champion, like everybody's playing on the Saint Sir.

995
00:50:00,880 --> 00:50:03,359
Speaker 1: I will say this though, like Seth part now hadn't

996
00:50:03,400 --> 00:50:07,359
Speaker 1: had you mentioned Steth Earlier? Seth had an article how

997
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:11,040
Speaker 1: weird this season is like this? This season more than

998
00:50:11,040 --> 00:50:13,799
Speaker 1: any like this season honestly, more than the bubble, like

999
00:50:13,840 --> 00:50:15,239
Speaker 1: the bubble you look at and you like, but that

1000
00:50:15,520 --> 00:50:18,720
Speaker 1: you're inside of a bubble. It was still a more

1001
00:50:19,360 --> 00:50:24,200
Speaker 1: normal environment and a more consistent indicator of team quality.

1002
00:50:24,800 --> 00:50:28,319
Speaker 1: The schedule and COVID and no fans has made this

1003
00:50:28,600 --> 00:50:32,600
Speaker 1: entire season bizarro. It's why shooting is through the roof

1004
00:50:32,719 --> 00:50:35,319
Speaker 1: across the board. It's why off We're gonna have four

1005
00:50:35,320 --> 00:50:38,840
Speaker 1: of the top five offenses of all time this season,

1006
00:50:39,320 --> 00:50:43,560
Speaker 1: Like it's wild the offensive production of the season. So

1007
00:50:43,680 --> 00:50:47,439
Speaker 1: I do think that this season will If the Lakers win,

1008
00:50:47,920 --> 00:50:51,280
Speaker 1: it's valid. If the Lakers don't win, If the Lakers

1009
00:50:51,360 --> 00:50:53,480
Speaker 1: or Nets win, it's valid. If the Lakers or Nets

1010
00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:56,520
Speaker 1: don't win, it's invalid. That's that will be the the

1011
00:50:56,680 --> 00:50:58,759
Speaker 1: that will be the narrative going forward. That's just how

1012
00:50:58,760 --> 00:51:02,080
Speaker 1: it goes. Let us do a victory lap.

1013
00:51:03,520 --> 00:51:07,520
Speaker 4: I'm stupid, you're smart, I was wrong, you were right,

1014
00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:10,520
Speaker 4: you're the best, I'm the worst.

1015
00:51:11,040 --> 00:51:12,680
Speaker 3: You're very good looking.

1016
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:16,479
Speaker 4: I'm not attractive, all right, as long as you're willing

1017
00:51:16,520 --> 00:51:17,120
Speaker 4: to admit that.

1018
00:51:17,480 --> 00:51:20,000
Speaker 1: So Raheem and Brandon been driving me crazy since we

1019
00:51:20,040 --> 00:51:22,400
Speaker 1: started doing these paus because these guys absolutely love to

1020
00:51:22,440 --> 00:51:25,040
Speaker 1: point out all the things that they got right. My

1021
00:51:25,120 --> 00:51:30,880
Speaker 1: favorite this week has been Raheem bragging about taking the

1022
00:51:30,920 --> 00:51:35,360
Speaker 1: Packers under and the Broncos over before the Aaron Rodgers

1023
00:51:35,400 --> 00:51:39,400
Speaker 1: trade news came out acting like he's some sort of seer.

1024
00:51:39,840 --> 00:51:44,439
Speaker 1: But I'm trying to contain that energy. So I'm going

1025
00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:46,440
Speaker 1: to try and like just we're gonna channel all the

1026
00:51:46,520 --> 00:51:50,359
Speaker 1: smug into this segment. Brandon, you're up first. What's your

1027
00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:51,520
Speaker 1: victory lap for this week?

1028
00:51:52,640 --> 00:51:55,600
Speaker 5: All right, so, gentlemen, I was all prepared to take

1029
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:58,480
Speaker 5: a victory lap on tree Allance, the number three pick

1030
00:51:58,520 --> 00:52:00,400
Speaker 5: of the forty nine ers, which I called within an

1031
00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:03,520
Speaker 5: hour of that trade when it got announced. But this

1032
00:52:03,560 --> 00:52:06,560
Speaker 5: is an NBA podcast, non NFL podcast, so I can't

1033
00:52:06,600 --> 00:52:08,759
Speaker 5: victory lap about that. We'll just have to celebrate that

1034
00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:15,279
Speaker 5: else elsewhere. My victory lap, sadly, as a Chicago suburban,

1035
00:52:16,239 --> 00:52:20,520
Speaker 5: is the Bulls trading for Nikolo Vucevich. This was a disaster.

1036
00:52:20,840 --> 00:52:23,520
Speaker 5: It was a disaster from the moment it happened. The

1037
00:52:23,560 --> 00:52:26,080
Speaker 5: Bulls are not in the playoff picture. They're not close

1038
00:52:26,120 --> 00:52:30,200
Speaker 5: in the playoff picture right now, Chicago fans, we're used

1039
00:52:30,239 --> 00:52:33,319
Speaker 5: to this. The Bulls draft pick, if the season ended

1040
00:52:33,400 --> 00:52:35,839
Speaker 5: right at this moment, would be the number seven pick

1041
00:52:35,840 --> 00:52:38,640
Speaker 5: in the draft, right where the Bulls draft pick has

1042
00:52:38,760 --> 00:52:41,120
Speaker 5: ended at like every single draft for the last half

1043
00:52:41,160 --> 00:52:44,600
Speaker 5: a decade. Only Chicago doesn't get anymore this year. It

1044
00:52:44,640 --> 00:52:47,080
Speaker 5: goes to Orlando now, and that's not just a number

1045
00:52:47,120 --> 00:52:51,719
Speaker 5: seven pick with those sparkling new flattened lottery odds. The

1046
00:52:51,760 --> 00:52:54,719
Speaker 5: Magic have an additional thirty two percent chance as the

1047
00:52:54,719 --> 00:52:56,919
Speaker 5: season stands right now at jumping into the top four

1048
00:52:57,000 --> 00:52:59,759
Speaker 5: of the lottery, which is about the same chance as

1049
00:52:59,800 --> 00:53:02,120
Speaker 5: Myles keeping their pick at this point. By the way,

1050
00:53:02,840 --> 00:53:05,560
Speaker 5: and I know, I know, Zach Lavine is out. That's

1051
00:53:05,560 --> 00:53:08,040
Speaker 5: the easy excuse. We've got a narrative already built in.

1052
00:53:08,440 --> 00:53:13,520
Speaker 1: Easy excuse. He's the best player of the team. NDA

1053
00:53:13,800 --> 00:53:16,360
Speaker 1: all star, Zach Levine.

1054
00:53:16,400 --> 00:53:20,560
Speaker 5: Zaq Lavine and Nick Vucevic played together, and the Bulls

1055
00:53:20,600 --> 00:53:22,359
Speaker 5: went three and seven.

1056
00:53:22,520 --> 00:53:25,680
Speaker 1: Versus two versus losses.

1057
00:53:25,280 --> 00:53:29,799
Speaker 5: To the Spurs, the Warriors, the Hawks, the Timberwolves, the Grizzlies,

1058
00:53:29,800 --> 00:53:31,920
Speaker 5: and the Magic, all but one of those by at

1059
00:53:31,960 --> 00:53:32,880
Speaker 5: least nine points.

1060
00:53:33,040 --> 00:53:35,680
Speaker 1: You mentioned teams in there that were not playoff teams.

1061
00:53:36,880 --> 00:53:39,319
Speaker 5: Yeah, how many of those teams are going to play

1062
00:53:39,360 --> 00:53:40,600
Speaker 5: in the second round of the playoffs.

1063
00:53:40,680 --> 00:53:42,960
Speaker 1: So they have to They have to beat all of

1064
00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:45,560
Speaker 1: the playoff teams and the non playoff teams. They had

1065
00:53:45,560 --> 00:53:45,919
Speaker 1: to win.

1066
00:53:46,719 --> 00:53:50,120
Speaker 5: They were three and seven against a completely winnable slate

1067
00:53:50,200 --> 00:53:54,719
Speaker 5: of games. They they didn't show up. This version of

1068
00:53:54,760 --> 00:53:58,040
Speaker 5: this team at best was always going to be mediocre

1069
00:53:58,160 --> 00:54:00,640
Speaker 5: and fighting for one of these players. The wins against

1070
00:54:02,040 --> 00:54:04,759
Speaker 5: without Levine and with Ucevic, they're four and six. They're

1071
00:54:04,800 --> 00:54:07,400
Speaker 5: better right now. They have a better record without Levine

1072
00:54:07,440 --> 00:54:10,440
Speaker 5: than with Levine since the trade. Either way, they're below

1073
00:54:10,520 --> 00:54:12,920
Speaker 5: five hundred. They don't have a first round to pick

1074
00:54:13,000 --> 00:54:16,240
Speaker 5: now the next two years. They don't have a plan

1075
00:54:16,400 --> 00:54:18,320
Speaker 5: going forward. This is what I said from the moment

1076
00:54:18,320 --> 00:54:20,840
Speaker 5: the trade happened. This trade never made sense for the team,

1077
00:54:21,320 --> 00:54:23,399
Speaker 5: and it is born out over the rest of the series.

1078
00:54:23,440 --> 00:54:25,439
Speaker 1: What do you give me on Bulls playoff odds next year?

1079
00:54:26,400 --> 00:54:27,600
Speaker 5: I don't know what do you give What do you

1080
00:54:27,640 --> 00:54:29,759
Speaker 5: give me on Bulls ever winning a series with this

1081
00:54:29,840 --> 00:54:31,840
Speaker 5: version of the team, Like I just what's the point?

1082
00:54:32,040 --> 00:54:36,080
Speaker 1: No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. The bar

1083
00:54:36,120 --> 00:54:37,640
Speaker 1: has gotta be playoffs. That's got to be the bar.

1084
00:54:37,840 --> 00:54:38,680
Speaker 1: You can figure out how to.

1085
00:54:38,600 --> 00:54:40,960
Speaker 3: Win out the bar. Who cares to get in as

1086
00:54:40,960 --> 00:54:41,839
Speaker 3: a seven or eight seeds?

1087
00:54:41,880 --> 00:54:44,160
Speaker 1: Can't always be a title contender, Brandon, You just can't

1088
00:54:44,160 --> 00:54:47,160
Speaker 1: always be a title contender. You're working towards them.

1089
00:54:46,960 --> 00:54:49,600
Speaker 5: For a title I'm asking for. Can we dream of

1090
00:54:49,640 --> 00:54:52,480
Speaker 5: winning a playoff series? And right now this team has

1091
00:54:52,640 --> 00:54:55,520
Speaker 5: no shot of dreaming at winning a playoff series. Their

1092
00:54:55,560 --> 00:54:59,319
Speaker 5: shot is getting in and dreaming about maybe winning one

1093
00:54:59,400 --> 00:55:01,600
Speaker 5: game to one or two seed, and even that is

1094
00:55:01,600 --> 00:55:02,160
Speaker 5: a dream too.

1095
00:55:02,200 --> 00:55:02,239
Speaker 4: Me.

1096
00:55:02,640 --> 00:55:05,440
Speaker 1: Bolls fans are nuts, all right, raheem, what's yours?

1097
00:55:06,040 --> 00:55:07,439
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with the Miami Heat.

1098
00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:10,600
Speaker 4: Brandon can probably take this because he actually bet them

1099
00:55:10,719 --> 00:55:13,000
Speaker 4: to miss the playoffs, which I thought was insane.

1100
00:55:13,239 --> 00:55:15,399
Speaker 3: But this team isn't good at all. I've been saying

1101
00:55:15,400 --> 00:55:16,120
Speaker 3: it for weeks.

1102
00:55:16,600 --> 00:55:19,279
Speaker 4: I got into an argument on NBA League Pass, but

1103
00:55:19,440 --> 00:55:22,800
Speaker 4: Preston and Justin, I mean, this team is just eleven

1104
00:55:22,840 --> 00:55:24,920
Speaker 4: and twenty one against teams.

1105
00:55:24,760 --> 00:55:26,200
Speaker 3: At five hundred or above.

1106
00:55:26,760 --> 00:55:29,160
Speaker 4: Last night they lost about fourteen points. I know, Tyler

1107
00:55:29,200 --> 00:55:31,359
Speaker 4: Harrow is out. You know a lot of people were

1108
00:55:31,360 --> 00:55:34,680
Speaker 4: excited about this Oladipot trade. Like I told you, this

1109
00:55:34,719 --> 00:55:36,680
Speaker 4: guy's a shell of his former stuff. I love all

1110
00:55:36,719 --> 00:55:40,320
Speaker 4: the Depot, But you know, ever since that first knee injury,

1111
00:55:40,719 --> 00:55:43,080
Speaker 4: you know, it's just been back to back back injury.

1112
00:55:43,200 --> 00:55:45,920
Speaker 4: So this team is just not going to do anything

1113
00:55:45,960 --> 00:55:48,359
Speaker 4: in the playoffs. We're seeing it right now. Anytime they

1114
00:55:48,360 --> 00:55:51,400
Speaker 4: play a solid team, they might get blown out because

1115
00:55:51,400 --> 00:55:52,760
Speaker 4: they just can't score points.

1116
00:55:52,840 --> 00:55:55,640
Speaker 3: I mean, this team is only twenty second in offensive.

1117
00:55:55,239 --> 00:55:58,319
Speaker 4: Rating and a year where you have four to five

1118
00:55:58,360 --> 00:56:02,360
Speaker 4: best offenses in NBA history. Everybody can shoot except for

1119
00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:06,239
Speaker 4: this team. That's my victory lap. I'm victory lapping it

1120
00:56:06,320 --> 00:56:09,680
Speaker 4: now preemptively, and I'm gonna victory lapping again when you

1121
00:56:09,719 --> 00:56:10,920
Speaker 4: get knocked out of the playoffs.

1122
00:56:11,200 --> 00:56:14,960
Speaker 1: So the Heat are currently tied with the Boston Celtics

1123
00:56:15,000 --> 00:56:17,800
Speaker 1: for the sixth seed. The Heat and Celtics played twice more,

1124
00:56:18,360 --> 00:56:20,600
Speaker 1: so there is a definite chance that the Heat fall

1125
00:56:20,680 --> 00:56:28,200
Speaker 1: into the playing game versus suddenly my Charlotte Hornets. What's interesting,

1126
00:56:28,320 --> 00:56:36,719
Speaker 1: so Fandel and DraftKings both have ozomic playoffs up. The

1127
00:56:36,800 --> 00:56:39,440
Speaker 1: Heat are not amongst those. You can't get a number.

1128
00:56:39,480 --> 00:56:41,040
Speaker 1: You can get a number on the Lakers to miss

1129
00:56:41,080 --> 00:56:44,040
Speaker 1: the playoffs at plus one thousand. By the way, there

1130
00:56:44,040 --> 00:56:45,439
Speaker 1: you go, Brandon. You can just bet them to miss

1131
00:56:45,440 --> 00:56:50,640
Speaker 1: the playoffs, slide into the seven and then the ultimate

1132
00:56:50,719 --> 00:56:55,240
Speaker 1: victory lap. Yeah, and then get beat by presumably Steph's Warriors.

1133
00:56:55,800 --> 00:56:57,839
Speaker 1: But you can't get the Heat. You can't. You can't.

1134
00:56:57,840 --> 00:56:59,680
Speaker 1: They're still assuming that the Heat are gonna get it.

1135
00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:03,279
Speaker 1: The Hornets are actually plus one fifty five. I will

1136
00:57:03,320 --> 00:57:06,480
Speaker 1: probably bet that based off of like I'm just testing

1137
00:57:06,480 --> 00:57:08,040
Speaker 1: a theory. I won't be a lot on it. I'll

1138
00:57:08,040 --> 00:57:11,080
Speaker 1: probably I'll probably, I'll probably bet the heat of the

1139
00:57:11,080 --> 00:57:13,719
Speaker 1: Hornets to win a series with Gordon Hayward come back

1140
00:57:13,800 --> 00:57:16,720
Speaker 1: at some point, LaMelo back and everything that I wrote

1141
00:57:16,760 --> 00:57:21,080
Speaker 1: back in that article. So okay, I think probably my

1142
00:57:22,320 --> 00:57:28,600
Speaker 1: only victory lap that I've got is that I took

1143
00:57:29,400 --> 00:57:32,200
Speaker 1: the Bulls to make the playoffs. No, that's not it.

1144
00:57:32,600 --> 00:57:34,320
Speaker 1: I gotta tak a look at where my win where

1145
00:57:34,320 --> 00:57:36,320
Speaker 1: my win totals are at. It's been a rough one

1146
00:57:36,320 --> 00:57:38,560
Speaker 1: for me. I'll be honest with you, like it's been

1147
00:57:38,600 --> 00:57:42,040
Speaker 1: a rough one just based off of the like. So

1148
00:57:42,160 --> 00:57:44,120
Speaker 1: here's here's part of it. I don't understand how the

1149
00:57:44,160 --> 00:57:47,120
Speaker 1: Mavericks and Celtics got worse. That's like a that's like

1150
00:57:47,160 --> 00:57:49,320
Speaker 1: a big that's a big thing for me. I don't

1151
00:57:49,400 --> 00:57:52,040
Speaker 1: understand how the Mavericks and Celtics got worse. How did

1152
00:57:52,040 --> 00:57:57,880
Speaker 1: the Mavericks get worse this year is really baffling to me, Like,

1153
00:57:57,960 --> 00:58:00,320
Speaker 1: that's crazy that the Mavericks got and then may wind

1154
00:58:00,320 --> 00:58:01,840
Speaker 1: have been the five seed, which is technically better than

1155
00:58:01,840 --> 00:58:03,240
Speaker 1: the six seed. But this team isn't better than last

1156
00:58:03,280 --> 00:58:04,880
Speaker 1: year's team, and that doesn't make it any sense at all.

1157
00:58:05,280 --> 00:58:07,800
Speaker 1: And then Boston like Tristan Thompson should have been better

1158
00:58:07,800 --> 00:58:09,680
Speaker 1: for this team, and they got Robert Williams and a

1159
00:58:09,680 --> 00:58:11,919
Speaker 1: lot of this is like Tatem had Covid He's still

1160
00:58:11,920 --> 00:58:16,200
Speaker 1: taking it in Haler Kimball was out, but Kimba's deterioration

1161
00:58:16,320 --> 00:58:19,160
Speaker 1: is really a bummer. I'm just I really felt like

1162
00:58:19,320 --> 00:58:22,520
Speaker 1: I don't understand how it seems like whenever I know

1163
00:58:22,680 --> 00:58:24,520
Speaker 1: that the Celtics pretty well gained by game, I have

1164
00:58:24,520 --> 00:58:26,880
Speaker 1: a good feel for them in that sense. The season

1165
00:58:26,960 --> 00:58:29,280
Speaker 1: by season, whenever I'm like, oh, they're set up great

1166
00:58:29,400 --> 00:58:31,920
Speaker 1: and I back them, then they fall apart, and whenever

1167
00:58:31,920 --> 00:58:33,680
Speaker 1: I'm like this team is not good Like last year,

1168
00:58:33,720 --> 00:58:38,080
Speaker 1: I was like, you have Daniel Tice as your starting center,

1169
00:58:38,400 --> 00:58:40,920
Speaker 1: you were gonna get eaten alive defensively, and they were

1170
00:58:40,960 --> 00:58:44,640
Speaker 1: like a top they were like ninth defensively. Yeah, my

1171
00:58:44,720 --> 00:58:47,120
Speaker 1: victory laps are never as rewarding as I want to do.

1172
00:58:47,240 --> 00:58:51,120
Speaker 4: All we got we got to talk about the Celtics Keeames,

1173
00:58:51,160 --> 00:58:54,280
Speaker 4: because I just I came into the season. I didn't

1174
00:58:54,360 --> 00:58:58,000
Speaker 4: understand how you could just let Gorton Hayward walk and

1175
00:58:58,000 --> 00:59:01,200
Speaker 4: then you have the mouse Turner trade. Hell yeah, and

1176
00:59:01,560 --> 00:59:04,600
Speaker 4: to me, like that's when I knew there was gonna

1177
00:59:04,600 --> 00:59:06,160
Speaker 4: be something wrong with the Celtic team because I just

1178
00:59:06,160 --> 00:59:09,040
Speaker 4: don't think you can let that amount of talent leave

1179
00:59:09,720 --> 00:59:12,040
Speaker 4: and then they're heavily reliant.

1180
00:59:11,640 --> 00:59:15,040
Speaker 3: On a rookie point guard and Peyton Pridge, Like I

1181
00:59:15,120 --> 00:59:15,440
Speaker 3: just did.

1182
00:59:15,520 --> 00:59:17,680
Speaker 4: I wasn't really high on the Celtics team, but I

1183
00:59:17,720 --> 00:59:19,720
Speaker 4: think there's something else going Like they're worse than I

1184
00:59:19,760 --> 00:59:22,080
Speaker 4: could ever imagine, Like there's something else going on there

1185
00:59:22,120 --> 00:59:25,200
Speaker 4: with Brad and the team, because it's just they shouldn't

1186
00:59:25,240 --> 00:59:25,640
Speaker 4: be this bad.

1187
00:59:25,680 --> 00:59:26,280
Speaker 3: I agree.

1188
00:59:27,080 --> 00:59:29,640
Speaker 5: Hold on, Matt Madden is helping his victory laps, so

1189
00:59:29,640 --> 00:59:30,240
Speaker 5: I'm gonna help you.

1190
00:59:30,280 --> 00:59:30,480
Speaker 3: Matt.

1191
00:59:30,560 --> 00:59:33,560
Speaker 5: Matt's victory lap is Ben Simmons to be the best

1192
00:59:33,560 --> 00:59:36,160
Speaker 5: defensive player in the NBA, but the NBA to not

1193
00:59:36,280 --> 00:59:38,840
Speaker 5: quite be ready to give him the award yet. That's

1194
00:59:38,880 --> 00:59:40,680
Speaker 5: been the narrative that played out. You called out before

1195
00:59:40,720 --> 00:59:43,720
Speaker 5: the season. It's been awesome, it's been in the conversation.

1196
00:59:43,840 --> 00:59:45,880
Speaker 5: But it's gonna go to go bear anyway, exactly how

1197
00:59:45,880 --> 00:59:46,440
Speaker 5: you played out.

1198
00:59:46,480 --> 00:59:47,880
Speaker 3: So that's your victory lap, I do.

1199
00:59:47,920 --> 00:59:50,440
Speaker 1: I am gonna absolutely go back. Well, no, actually, I'll

1200
00:59:50,440 --> 00:59:53,200
Speaker 1: tell you this is the best one. So before the season,

1201
00:59:53,240 --> 00:59:59,400
Speaker 1: I bet our colleague, Justin Fan, that I bet Obie

1202
00:59:59,400 --> 01:00:01,400
Speaker 1: Topping to win Rookie of the Year versus LaMelo Ball

1203
01:00:01,640 --> 01:00:04,800
Speaker 1: with the idea of if anybody else want to be fine,

1204
01:00:04,800 --> 01:00:06,480
Speaker 1: because it basically I didn't think he was gonna I

1205
01:00:06,480 --> 01:00:09,280
Speaker 1: didn't think that Lamelolo was gonna win because I didn't.

1206
01:00:09,360 --> 01:00:10,720
Speaker 1: I really didn't think he was gonna be as good

1207
01:00:10,720 --> 01:00:13,600
Speaker 1: as he was. I was wrong. However, my victory lap

1208
01:00:13,640 --> 01:00:16,120
Speaker 1: is that for some reason, when he went down with

1209
01:00:16,160 --> 01:00:18,840
Speaker 1: this injury and the Hornets pretty immediately made it clear

1210
01:00:18,880 --> 01:00:21,640
Speaker 1: that he was going to play again, I started snatching

1211
01:00:21,720 --> 01:00:24,120
Speaker 1: up numbers at plus two hundred or better all over

1212
01:00:24,160 --> 01:00:28,280
Speaker 1: the place. So I'm paying off Justin and profiting way

1213
01:00:28,280 --> 01:00:31,080
Speaker 1: beyond that because I was like, no, no, no, Rookie of

1214
01:00:31,080 --> 01:00:33,200
Speaker 1: the Year does not get judged the same way MVP does.

1215
01:00:33,920 --> 01:00:38,240
Speaker 1: The standards are completely different. LaMelo's back, he's dishing underhand

1216
01:00:38,560 --> 01:00:42,720
Speaker 1: full court passes. He's absolutely gonna win Rookie of the Year,

1217
01:00:42,760 --> 01:00:44,919
Speaker 1: and I'm going to cash on that by knowing when

1218
01:00:44,920 --> 01:00:47,160
Speaker 1: to get the best of the number. Even though I

1219
01:00:47,200 --> 01:00:48,920
Speaker 1: lost to Justin Fan, I still got the best of

1220
01:00:48,960 --> 01:00:51,920
Speaker 1: the number, and that's what matters. Suck it justin. All right.

1221
01:00:52,040 --> 01:00:54,560
Speaker 1: That's gonna wrap it up for the Action Network NBA podcast.

1222
01:00:54,600 --> 01:00:56,320
Speaker 1: You can follow us on Twitter, check us out on

1223
01:00:56,320 --> 01:00:57,720
Speaker 1: the Action Network app. You can track all of our

1224
01:00:57,760 --> 01:01:01,040
Speaker 1: bets as well, including Brandon's continue to be awesome props

1225
01:01:01,040 --> 01:01:03,880
Speaker 1: work and Raheem's model, which continues to kill it on

1226
01:01:03,960 --> 01:01:06,880
Speaker 1: totals this season. They've both been absolutely stellar, and my

1227
01:01:06,880 --> 01:01:09,640
Speaker 1: first half bets which have been absolutely great, including my

1228
01:01:09,720 --> 01:01:11,880
Speaker 1: New York Knicks first half. Everyone's like, oh, the Knicks

1229
01:01:11,880 --> 01:01:13,360
Speaker 1: are so good against the spread, not as good as

1230
01:01:13,360 --> 01:01:14,040
Speaker 1: they are first half.

1231
01:01:14,120 --> 01:01:16,200
Speaker 3: Baby, that's the best thing you ever put me on to.

1232
01:01:16,520 --> 01:01:17,200
Speaker 3: Oh my god.

1233
01:01:17,840 --> 01:01:19,680
Speaker 1: They clean it up and they're on it again tonight

1234
01:01:19,720 --> 01:01:22,080
Speaker 1: versus the Grizzlies as dog all right. Follow us on Twitter,

1235
01:01:22,600 --> 01:01:25,240
Speaker 1: rate reviews, subscribe, Thanks for joining us. We'll see guys

1236
01:01:25,240 --> 01:01:26,960
Speaker 1: again next time on the Action Network Podcast.

1237
01:01:34,640 --> 01:01:35,720
Speaker 2: We're finished talking