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Speaker 1: What two three breaks down in the middle of the

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Speaker 1: fielding loose football down in the one yard line? How

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Speaker 1: about that? That is the ultimate commotion.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Welcome everybody to the Action Network NFL podcast. Please, if

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Speaker 3: you haven't already subscribed, leave a five star review if

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Speaker 3: you enjoy the show, and download the Action Network app

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Speaker 3: for all your live sports odds and analysis. It's Sunday Night,

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Speaker 3: and we're here to talk about what just went down

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Speaker 3: in week eleven. Look ahead to one of the best

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Speaker 3: Monday night football games a year in Chiefs rams, as

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Speaker 3: well as a full Thanksgiving Day edition of Thursday Night

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Speaker 3: Football and Thursday Day Football. I'm Ian Harris's director of

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Speaker 3: the Fantasy Lives NFL product in Action Network Analysts. I'm

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Speaker 3: here as always a Chris Raybond, co host of I'll

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Speaker 3: Take That Bet on ESPN Plus, editor, an NFL analyst

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Speaker 3: that Action Network in Fantasy Labs.

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Speaker 2: Chris, what's going on? Man?

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Speaker 1: What is up? Ian?

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Speaker 4: No?

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Speaker 5: Just saw this Sunday Night game Bears Vikings. Bears continue

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Speaker 5: to keep on winning Man. That this is the shaping

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Speaker 5: up to be an interesting playoff race in the NFC.

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Speaker 3: Yes, sir, we are recording after the Sunday night game

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Speaker 3: so we can get all that Bears information and didn't

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Speaker 3: want to give you guys a Thanksgiving Day preview and

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Speaker 3: have something terrible happen in the second half.

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Speaker 2: So we should be good there.

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Speaker 3: Speaking of the holidays, just real quick, we'll have a

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Speaker 3: slightly different podcast format. Chris and I gonna spend a

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Speaker 3: little less time on.

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Speaker 2: The week eleven review.

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Speaker 3: Today so we can give you guys a little more

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Speaker 3: analysis on the three game Thanksgiving Day slate as well

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Speaker 3: as the aforementioned Chiefs Rams game. And then also Chris

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Speaker 3: will be on the Daily Fantasy Flex with Matt Friedman,

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Speaker 3: csu Ram, and Sean the Oddsmaker as always, but that

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Speaker 3: will take the place of the Friday pods, So tune

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Speaker 3: into Daily Fantasy Flex for your ultimate Week twelve NFL preview.

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Speaker 3: All right, we'll get thanks started, some of our best

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Speaker 3: and worst core plays of the week.

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Speaker 4: Some players pay and some players slay. Who were the

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Speaker 4: bankroll builders and bankroll killers from Week eleven?

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Speaker 2: All right, Chris a lot.

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Speaker 3: It was a weird week with all these teams on

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Speaker 3: buy and you know, just kind of up and down

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Speaker 3: games throughout the slate.

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Speaker 2: Who was your best play through at all.

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Speaker 5: I think it's the same for both of us. Definitely

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Speaker 5: Trey Kuan Smith. You know, Eagles had an injured secondary,

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Speaker 5: Drew Brees doesn't have that many guys to throw too great,

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Speaker 5: and Marshall was inactive, so you know that ended up

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Speaker 5: hitting and working out unlike some of the tight ends,

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Speaker 5: which we'll get I guess get right into.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I mean, he said on Trey Kwon. Good

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Speaker 2: to see him really.

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Speaker 3: Get all those targets after the zero target dead last week.

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Speaker 3: We always got to keep the pass volume in mind. Yeah, man,

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Speaker 3: these tight ends were tough. I thought I was in

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Speaker 3: myself a favor by finding finding a way to pay

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Speaker 3: up for zach Ertz and a bunch of my lineups,

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Speaker 3: but not so much two catches fifteen yards no scores,

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Speaker 3: you know, and paying down for RSJ and his five

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Speaker 3: scoreless yards that he managed on the afternoon didn't.

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Speaker 2: Work out much better.

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Speaker 3: So what do you think about kind of messing up

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Speaker 3: on these tight ends any future and knows for yourself.

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Speaker 3: I thought, maybe just with a slate with kind of

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Speaker 3: so much uncertainty at the position, you should I should

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Speaker 3: have probably just better spread myself out from kind of

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Speaker 3: uncertain guys like RSJ.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: I mean the thing about I think RSJ was a

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Speaker 5: good play when you look at the process, when you

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Speaker 5: look at the air yards, he had a seventeen percent

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Speaker 5: target chair. He had I think top six in are

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Speaker 5: yards among tight ends, but at a really good price,

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Speaker 5: especially on DraftKings. But you know, he has he's been

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Speaker 5: a guy that really hasn't put it together this year,

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Speaker 5: and I think you still got to always think about

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Speaker 5: not just the matchup, but just the overall situation in

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Speaker 5: the quarterback. You know, Josh Rosen hasn't been a guy

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Speaker 5: that's been two receiver friendly outside of the fact that

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Speaker 5: you know Byron Left, which the targets aren't really being

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Speaker 5: dispersed in many places, as you've noted this week in

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Speaker 5: your column. You know, I don't hate to play there,

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Speaker 5: but I think that with the Eagles it was a

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Speaker 5: little more interesting because I actually mentioned this to Freedman

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Speaker 5: on the Friday Pot last week. You know, I was like, hey,

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Speaker 5: you know, how do we feel about Carson Wentz in

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Speaker 5: cash games, because you know, he wasn't really popping as

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Speaker 5: highs I thought he would in my model. I mean,

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Speaker 5: I thought they were a lot better team than they were.

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Speaker 1: I didn't.

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Speaker 5: I wasn't really that persuaded to change any of my

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Speaker 5: views by when they lost to Dallas. But I mean this,

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Speaker 5: they just got ran over today and they just don't

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Speaker 5: have it. I mean, you're starting to hear rumblings about

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Speaker 5: no one's holding each other accountable. I thought they I

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Speaker 5: actually thought they'd get up for this game and kind

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Speaker 5: of surprise.

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Speaker 1: Some people, but it went the whole other way.

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Speaker 5: And now the Eagles kind of sitting here, probably going

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Speaker 5: to be on the outside looking in to the playoffs

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Speaker 5: if they don't really turn this around asap.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I won't pretend to have the secret answer to what's

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Speaker 3: kind of gone wrong with the Eagles offense. I think

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Speaker 3: it's you know, more more unlikely, a combination of a

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Speaker 3: lot of different things. But I was surprised that kind

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Speaker 3: of their last gas effort to fix this offense was

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Speaker 3: training for Golden Eight.

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Speaker 2: From the lines.

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Speaker 3: I just thought that what we had seen this year,

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Speaker 3: you know, Mike Wallace going down, Matt Collins, they really

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Speaker 3: didn't have the field stretcher, so I thought maybe trying

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Speaker 3: to get better outside guy would help out. But now,

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Speaker 3: you know, the more Golden taps in the slot, more

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Speaker 3: Nelson Aglers outside.

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Speaker 2: It's just not really ideal for them.

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Speaker 3: So we'll see if they can turn up that combination

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Speaker 3: in the future and get things going there. All right,

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Speaker 3: and now it's time to talk about the biggest fancy

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Speaker 3: disappointment of the weekend.

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Speaker 1: I'm the trash man.

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Speaker 5: Just throw me the trash, your garbage, and you know it,

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Speaker 5: totally unreliable, undependently.

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Speaker 1: That's it. You've been told off.

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Speaker 2: How do you like that? Good?

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Speaker 3: This week's trash men are pretty crowded group this week,

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Speaker 3: But Corey Davis and Deon Lewis, we're gonna stick with

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Speaker 3: the pair of Titans. Dion was at twenty seven point

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Speaker 3: two percent owned the millionaire maker coming off that dut

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Speaker 3: against the Patriots. Everyone thought he would turn things around.

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Speaker 3: Corey Davis twenty point one percent coming off, you know,

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Speaker 3: the best game of his regular season career last week,

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Speaker 3: as we just said, Titans coming off you know, obviously

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Speaker 3: biggest win and really years over the Patriots, so kind

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Speaker 3: of riding riding that trained going into Indy for big

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Speaker 3: divisional game, got absolutely smacked. Colts led a twenty four

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Speaker 3: to three by halftime. Coached to do a thirty eight

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Speaker 3: ten victory. Marcus Marriott suffered another elbow injury during the

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Speaker 3: game and got pulled. So once we have blank Gabern,

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Speaker 3: there is pretty much end of the day for Dion

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Speaker 3: and Corey. Deon Lewis ended up with thirty two scoreless

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Speaker 3: total yards. Corey Davis caught two of four targets for

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Speaker 3: only thirty yards. Chris thoughts on this Titans offense and

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Speaker 3: what Titans offense you're expecting to see moving forward.

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Speaker 5: The issue with this offense for the most part is

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Speaker 5: that they don't really have a lot of ways to

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Speaker 5: go outside of Corey Davis and Deon Lewis. Going forward,

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Speaker 5: I would kind of expect to see the same thing

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Speaker 5: because again, there's really nowhere else to go, Like none

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Speaker 5: of those other receivers you know, Taj Sharp and you know,

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Speaker 5: Cameron Batson and all those guys aren't really at we haven't.

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Speaker 1: Proven to be difference makers at this level yet.

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Speaker 5: So Corey Davis in over thirty percent of the time,

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Speaker 5: Dion Lewis in another fifteen to sixteen percent. I would

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Speaker 5: expect it that to kind of be the same. I mean,

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Speaker 5: this offense has just been inconsistent from the jump. And

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Speaker 5: anytime you lose your starting quarterback in the middle of

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Speaker 5: the game, that's what's going to happen. But I'm surprised

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Speaker 5: they didn't target Dion Lewis Moore in the passing game.

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Speaker 5: You know, I think that should be a staple for

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Speaker 5: them week in and week out, because all these guys

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Speaker 5: really aren't you making much of a difference. You know,

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Speaker 5: John Smith caught a bunch of balls today, but for

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Speaker 5: not that many yards, so I kind of expect the

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Speaker 5: same thing.

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Speaker 1: They have a run hot and run cold.

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Speaker 5: I'm surprised they ran this cold against this coach defense,

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Speaker 5: which I don't think is this good.

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Speaker 1: You know, I did expect the coach to win the game.

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Speaker 5: That was one of my favorite bets this week was

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Speaker 5: Coach at minus one, just because I thought that, you know,

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Speaker 5: that was kind of a steal, getting them at home

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Speaker 5: against the with the better quarterback. But I didn't expect

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Speaker 5: the Titans to kind of weigh an egg like that.

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Speaker 5: But again, you know, once Mariota went down, it was

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Speaker 5: kind of it was kind of hope with.

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Speaker 3: Unless you're a ten Bay Buccaneers, pretty tough to get

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Speaker 3: gone when the quarterback comes et exactly two more quick

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Speaker 3: trash man from this week.

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Speaker 2: I mentioned them a little bit earlier.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, Carson Wentz and Zach Er just unable to

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Speaker 3: get going. Once was eleven point four percent owned and

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Speaker 3: the Melly Ertz was that twenty point four percent. So

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Speaker 3: one thing about the Saints defense this year, Look, they

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Speaker 3: give up forty eight points to the Buccaneers, thirty seven

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Speaker 3: points to the Falcons, thirty five points to the Rams.

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Speaker 3: They've played seven other games and none of those teams

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Speaker 3: have scored over twenty three points. So I guess, how

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Speaker 3: much of this performance do you think was the Eagles

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Speaker 3: offense and how much of it is Hey, maybe the

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Speaker 3: Saints are actually a pretty decent defense.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a little bit of both. I think

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Speaker 1: the same.

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Speaker 5: You know, Freedman was actually talking about that too, and

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Speaker 5: you know I didn't, I didn't see it, but you know,

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Speaker 5: at that time, honestly, like I thought that that the

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Speaker 5: Saints defense was going to struggle against this Eagles offense,

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Speaker 5: especially with the addition of both and tape. But we

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Speaker 5: just haven't seen the same Eagles offense in terms of

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Speaker 5: being able to execute, in terms of winning games. Like

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Speaker 5: Carson Wentz had pretty good numbers coming into this matchup.

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Speaker 5: You know, coming into this matchup, just couldn't get it done.

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Speaker 5: I know they have their banged up on the offensive line,

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Speaker 5: so I'm sure that's playing a factor, but you would

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Speaker 5: just expect more from in a game where you know

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Speaker 5: the other team scores forty eight up on you, so

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Speaker 5: you have to the pressures on you to come back

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Speaker 5: down that field and score points. And for Carson Wentz

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Speaker 5: to end the game with one hundred and fifty sixty yards,

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Speaker 5: I mean with all of that talent, with Alshon, Jeffrey

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Speaker 5: and Golden Tate and Aglar and I mean Jordan Matthews

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Speaker 5: as a number four is not even you know that, Dad,

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Speaker 5: You know you got Dallas gold that tight end. You

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Speaker 5: get like you just have too many guys to have

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Speaker 5: that kind of performance, especially in the Dome. So you

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Speaker 5: know what we heard about the Eagles and whatever's going

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Speaker 5: on in that locker room, that Super Bowl hangover. It's

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Speaker 5: such a cliche, but you know it's there's obviously something

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Speaker 5: going on in there, and I guess we have to

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Speaker 5: kind of keep that in mind a bit when we're

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Speaker 5: targeting them, and especially again, it's just be mindful of

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Speaker 5: these of these road underdog spots as well, because you

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Speaker 5: know that that's when a team is most likely to

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Speaker 5: kind of lay an egg like that. So you know,

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Speaker 5: we saw that with the Titans, we saw it with

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Speaker 5: the Eagles.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the only thing I can really think of that

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Speaker 3: maybe we should have given more thought to him projecting

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Speaker 3: the Eagles this season was just the kind of lack

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Speaker 3: of time. I guess their offense had to really get

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Speaker 3: a customed together. Obviously, Frank rich took the job in Indie,

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Speaker 3: John d Filippio, the quarterback coach, went to Minnesota. Wentz

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Speaker 3: wasn't playing until week three, Jeffrey was out till Week four.

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Speaker 3: So just kind of a never ending array of problems.

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Speaker 3: And they've just been constantly kind of juggling these weapons.

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Speaker 3: So I'm not saying last year I didn't have their

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Speaker 3: fair share of issues to overcome and they want a

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Speaker 3: freaking super Bowl at Nick Foles, but just a whole.

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Speaker 2: Lot on moving pieces in a competitive league.

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Speaker 3: So and now for the team that lost the public

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Speaker 3: the most money this weekend, or as our old friend

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Speaker 3: Joe Buck might put.

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Speaker 1: It, that is a disgusting act.

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Speaker 2: That's right, Joe.

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Speaker 3: The Carolina Panthers on the road facing the Detroit Lions.

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Speaker 3: Panthers opened up as three point road favorites, a line

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Speaker 3: moved up to four points by the kickoff. Seventy three

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Speaker 3: percent of public tickets sixty eight percent of the money

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Speaker 3: was on the Panthers. Camon Company made it look easy

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Speaker 3: early on, went ninety yards for a touchdown in the

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Speaker 3: opening drive, proceeding not.

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Speaker 2: Score again to the fourth quarter.

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Speaker 3: I ended up getting a pretty slow game, not a

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Speaker 3: whole lot of offense, but had a nice little finish

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Speaker 3: after a nice Kenny gall A circus touchdown catch to

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Speaker 3: go up twenty thirteen round five minutes left. Cam took

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Speaker 3: the Panthers down again, found Dj Moore for a touchdown

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Speaker 3: just over a minute remaining, decided to go for two

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Speaker 3: nineteen to twenty down one point. Ron failed to convert

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Speaker 3: this time, ultimately took the one point. L didn't even

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Speaker 3: give spread better as a chance to get the cover

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Speaker 3: in overtime. Cam was still pretty amazing through for over

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Speaker 3: three hundred yards three touchdowns. Chris Any thoughts here on

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Speaker 3: the Panthers moving forward in this game In general, I.

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Speaker 5: Think Dj Moore is obviously playing himself into a bigger role.

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Speaker 1: Curtis Samuel as well.

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Speaker 5: I think those are the guys that they would like

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Speaker 5: to probably feature a little more. I think Tory Smith

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Speaker 5: was with someone they brought in to kind of replicate

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Speaker 5: what they had with Ted Ginn a couple of years ago,

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Speaker 5: and that was so successful. But they can kind of

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Speaker 5: get you more dynamic playmaking out of More and out

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Speaker 5: of Samuel. I think they're going to go forward with

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Speaker 5: those two as they're number two and number three receivers.

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Speaker 5: I would be surprised to see Torri Smith, you know,

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Speaker 5: if he comes back come back into that same kind

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Speaker 5: of role as the default number two that he was

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Speaker 5: earlier in the season.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that would just add an entire extra commarity start

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Speaker 3: accounting for in these targets. I believe today more funches

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Speaker 3: a McCaffrey all saw at least seven targets. We only

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Speaker 3: had Olsen at three, so that'll pick up in future weeks.

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Speaker 3: Just gonna be a hard situation to predict moving forward,

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Speaker 3: but we know it's going to be a high producing offense,

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Speaker 3: so definitely a situation to.

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Speaker 2: Keep an eye on.

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Speaker 3: All Right now, we're going to take a quick quick

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Speaker 3: review of the winning Millionaire Maker lineup from Billy Vaughan.

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Speaker 4: Elks becoming a DFS millionaire, to talk about a dream

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Speaker 4: come true. What DraftKings lineup lived a daily fantasy fantasy

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Speaker 4: this weekend?

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Speaker 3: All right, congrats to Billy two hundred and fifty three

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Speaker 3: points seven points, taking home a million dollars, and he's

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Speaker 3: even taking home more than We had a multi lineup

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Speaker 3: enter here, But basically Drew Brees and Trey Kwan Smith

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Speaker 3: stack quarterback to flex. His two running backs were Saekwon

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Speaker 3: Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott and they're great matchups against the

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Speaker 3: Buccaneers and Falcons, respectively. The wide receiver spots we had

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Speaker 3: Corey Davis, he at least wanted something today, t Y Hilton,

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Speaker 3: Dj Moore, as we spoke about before, Jordan reading the

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Speaker 3: tight end spot. And on defense, we had the Texans

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Speaker 3: on the road against that banged up Washington offensive line.

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Speaker 2: Chris thoughts on this million dollar lineup.

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Speaker 5: So the first thing that stands out is something that

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Speaker 5: I talked about this week in the breakdown over on Labs,

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Speaker 5: which is you don't usually need to go to contrarian

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Speaker 5: at running back. You can kind of there's just so

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Speaker 5: especially there were just so many options and so many

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Speaker 5: guys in good spots that there was going to be

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Speaker 5: this kind of natural differentiation through some degree and just

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Speaker 5: always going to be ways to get some lower ownership

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Speaker 5: at the pass catcher because there's just so many more

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Speaker 5: of them. And we kind of saw that again where

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Speaker 5: he had he was able to win even with Saquon

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Speaker 5: at thirty percent Ezekiel Ye at twenty five percent, because

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Speaker 5: they had the type of games that were expected from them,

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Speaker 5: you know, to warrant that high ownership in the first place.

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Speaker 5: So I think the Texans were a sharp play going

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Speaker 5: against that injured, you know, Washington offensive line. And then

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Speaker 5: you know, something else I talked about in the breakdown,

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Speaker 5: which is a lot of times, you know, you want

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Speaker 5: to look at those number two receivers when there are

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Speaker 5: like these chalk spots for quarterbacks or receivers, you know,

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Speaker 5: like Michael Thomas. You know a lot of people are

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Speaker 5: going to probably end up jamming him in because they

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Speaker 5: feel like he's, you know, he's the best stacking option,

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Speaker 5: which I mean he is in terms of, you know,

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Speaker 5: being the guy with the most target share. But if

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Speaker 5: you look at it from a straight up correlational standpoint

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Speaker 5: and like what would benefit you the most in the

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Speaker 5: lineup like that, getting kind of the cheaper guy who

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Speaker 5: you know hasn't necessarily produced at that level, but that's

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Speaker 5: why his salary is a little bit lower is usually

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Speaker 5: going to help you out. So that's why I always

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Speaker 5: kind of advocate for playing the guys like you know,

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Speaker 5: when when Julio's chalk, you know, look at Calvin Ridley,

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Speaker 5: when you know, when Michael Thomas's chalk, look at Trey

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Speaker 5: Kwan Smith, you.

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Speaker 1: Know, and things like that.

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Speaker 5: I mean, you could have even taken it further, and

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Speaker 5: like Taj Sharp ended up I think scoring a touchdown,

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Speaker 5: and Corey Davis was pretty.

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Speaker 1: Chalky as well.

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Speaker 5: So that's always something to keep in mind on these

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Speaker 5: on these slates when there's gonna be like a real

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Speaker 5: chalky spy, just like, how do I differentiate a little

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Speaker 5: bit off of that and save some salary at the

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Speaker 5: same time.

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Speaker 1: Because another thing was.

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Speaker 5: With when you have a really expensive stack, like it

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Speaker 5: can work, but you're kind of defeating some of the

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Speaker 5: purpose of stacking because you're kind of paying a premium

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Speaker 5: to get the correlation. Where when you had a breezeing

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Speaker 5: to Trey Kuan Smith, all of a sudden Now that's

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Speaker 5: kind of like a below average combination in terms of

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Speaker 5: salary right there, once you factor in Tray Kuon, So

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Speaker 5: I thought it was I thought that was a sharp play.

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Speaker 5: And then you know Jordan Reid finally, you know, the

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Speaker 5: targets were there. That's why we always followed the volume.

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Speaker 5: The targets had been there all season. His target rate

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Speaker 5: had I think climbed over twenty percent or hit twenty

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Speaker 5: percent coming into this weekend. Finally took advantage of a

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Speaker 5: good matchup found the end zone.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, especially with Jay Reed there. I mean, whenever you

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Speaker 3: can get a situation like that where the volumes rising

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Speaker 3: and you're meeting a price point that it was literally,

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Speaker 3: i think his lowest since like twenty fifteen. Just a

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Speaker 3: good situation to pull the trigger on. Congrats to Billy

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Speaker 3: von Elds. All right, we're not gonna go through all

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Speaker 3: the injuries today and work there like we usually do,

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Speaker 3: but I'm going to quickly go over someone of today's

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Speaker 3: key injuries to skill position players.

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Speaker 4: Keep your head on a swivel for the injury report.

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Speaker 3: Brandon LaFell, the Raiders wide receiver, suffered a torn achilles

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Speaker 3: will miss the remainder of the season Wayver Wire. People

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Speaker 3: who enjoy attacking the Raiders passing game should consider Seth

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Speaker 3: Roberts and marcel Aateman, who had five targets today, but

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Speaker 3: might be better off looking elsewhere. Also on the Raiders,

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Speaker 3: Doug Martin suffered an ankle injury didn't play much in

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Speaker 3: the second half. We're looking at Jalen Richard and DeAndre

385
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Speaker 3: Washington backfield moving forward if Martin can't suit up. Alex

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Speaker 3: Smith suffered a broken leg and will miss the remainder

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Speaker 3: of the season. Cole McCoy will take over for the

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Speaker 3: Redskins out quarterback and out their Thursday Night against the Cowboys.

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Speaker 3: Oj Howard suffering an ankle injury and wasn't able to return. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: go get your cam braid while we have this one

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Speaker 3: tight end in Tampa Bay for the time being.

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Speaker 2: Carry On.

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Speaker 3: Johnson suffering knee injury was unable to return. Probably the

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Speaker 3: biggest one of this group as far as just you know,

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Speaker 3: week to week seal position. Guys would expect Theo Ridick

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Speaker 3: to have a bigger role in the backfield. Obviously, the

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Speaker 3: Garrett Blunt has seen some early down work as well.

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Speaker 3: Ultimately could just be a three back committee between Riddick,

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Speaker 3: Blunt and maybe Zack Center elevated from practice squad. And

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Speaker 3: then as you mentioned earlier, Marcus Marriott has suffered an

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Speaker 3: elbow injury while Blain Gabbert in there.

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Speaker 2: You probably see some negative Blank Gabbard splits this week.

403
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Speaker 3: And it makes sense not a great situation target with

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Speaker 3: the backup quarterback Chris Real quick.

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Speaker 2: Any thoughts on these guys.

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Speaker 5: I think with Garret Blunt will actually see a pretty

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Speaker 5: significant workload if if carry ons out, just because you know,

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Speaker 5: he's like a Matt Patricia guy, and Matt Patricia has

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Speaker 5: been trying to kind of establish the run Matthew Stafford has.

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Speaker 5: It's been a whole different kind of beast without Golden

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Speaker 5: Tate in the lineup. So I do think they'll kind

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Speaker 5: of try to maybe meet a little bit more in

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Speaker 5: that power running game if Terry On is out.

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Speaker 1: But we'll see what happens.

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Speaker 2: And Lagarrett blunts last four games.

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Speaker 3: If you haven't been paying attention, twenty one carries sixteen yards.

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Speaker 2: Oh man, he is getting up there all right.

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Speaker 3: Now, let's move on to the premiere primetime matchup of

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Speaker 3: the year. We got the Rams versus the Chiefs in

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Speaker 3: Los Angeles. We were supposed to be in Mexico City,

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Speaker 3: but was it? Oh man, I forget the concert name.

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Speaker 3: There's some concert that got to rowdy field, not good,

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Speaker 3: and we are now back in LA. The Rams open

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Speaker 3: as a one point favorite. They're up to three point favorites.

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Speaker 3: You know, obviously has to do with the field change

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Speaker 3: setting and the insane over under sixty three and a

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Speaker 3: half points has dropped to only sixty three points. So, Chris,

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Speaker 3: we'll go through a couple different things in this game,

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Speaker 3: but we want to start off with what do you

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Speaker 3: think about Jared goffin this Rams passing attack versus Chiefs secondary. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: this is going to be without Cooper Cupp, who suffered.

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Speaker 2: Twenty a c almost the remainder of the season.

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Speaker 5: I'm fascinated by this because I don't know if this

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Speaker 5: is kind of just you know, small sample noise or what.

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Speaker 5: But I think I've talked about this before. Cooper Cup

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Speaker 5: went down in Week six. He didn't play the majority

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Speaker 5: of that game, and then he missed Week seven to eight.

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Speaker 5: So in those three weeks, the Rams were only twenty

439
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Speaker 5: second in the league in passing success rate. They were

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Speaker 5: number two in the league and all of the other

441
00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:24,040
Speaker 5: weeks when they had Cup.

442
00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:25,919
Speaker 1: So that's something to watch.

443
00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,600
Speaker 5: Cup was seventh in the league in yards per route

444
00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:31,400
Speaker 5: run from the slot per Pro Football Focus at two

445
00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:33,800
Speaker 5: point four two. You know, Robert Woods is probably gonna

446
00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 5: be the guy to take his place. He's actually seventeenth

447
00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:39,160
Speaker 5: in the league coming into this week in yards per

448
00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:41,239
Speaker 5: route running the slot as well, so it's not a

449
00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:44,400
Speaker 5: huge drop off, but that kind of puts Josh Reynolds

450
00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,840
Speaker 5: on the outside. The second year man, and in week

451
00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:51,119
Speaker 5: six through eight, Josh Reynolds average up the target was

452
00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:52,560
Speaker 5: only six point six.

453
00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:55,639
Speaker 1: For the season, he's at eleven point eight. Robert Woods

454
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:56,720
Speaker 1: stayed the same, so.

455
00:19:56,840 --> 00:19:58,480
Speaker 5: You know, even though he comes in the slot more,

456
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:00,240
Speaker 5: you know, he was right around eleven and a half

457
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:03,560
Speaker 5: average up to target either way. But Brandon Cooks his

458
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:06,240
Speaker 5: average up the target shot up to twenty point nine

459
00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:08,920
Speaker 5: and for the season he's only at thirteen point one.

460
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,000
Speaker 5: So what it seems like is they kind of had

461
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:13,080
Speaker 5: Josh Reynolds, you know, even though he's on the perimeter

462
00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,439
Speaker 5: running some of the shorter routes, some of the underneath stuff,

463
00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:20,080
Speaker 5: and using Brandon Cooks more in that traditional field stretcher role.

464
00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:22,200
Speaker 1: So what that might do is make him.

465
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:23,959
Speaker 5: A little bit more give well, first of all, give

466
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:25,560
Speaker 5: him a little bit more upside as if he needs

467
00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,040
Speaker 5: any more of that, but also make him a little

468
00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:30,200
Speaker 5: more volatile as well, like not quite at you know,

469
00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:32,199
Speaker 5: not quite as high floor because even you know, in

470
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,200
Speaker 5: that stretch caught nine out of nineteen target So that's

471
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:38,119
Speaker 5: what's going to happen when your targeted over twenty yards

472
00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:39,560
Speaker 5: downfield on average.

473
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:40,879
Speaker 1: So that's something to kind of watch.

474
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,480
Speaker 5: I think we'll be fine for this game because there's

475
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:45,840
Speaker 5: not really many places for the targets to go. So

476
00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:48,680
Speaker 5: in that three week span, Cooks was getting a forty

477
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:51,240
Speaker 5: four percent of the team's air yards twenty two percent

478
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:54,439
Speaker 5: of the targets. Robert Woods jumped up to thirty one

479
00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:56,440
Speaker 5: percent of the air yards and twenty seven percent of

480
00:20:56,480 --> 00:20:58,440
Speaker 5: the targets, and then Gurley is at nineteen percent of

481
00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:01,240
Speaker 5: the targets and no one else was in the double digits.

482
00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:04,080
Speaker 5: You had Josh Reynolds nine percent of the targets and

483
00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:06,480
Speaker 5: Gerald Effort as well. So this is going to be

484
00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:10,480
Speaker 5: a pretty highly concentrated offense, I would imagine with Cooper

485
00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 5: Cup out, and it is also the issue of the

486
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:15,840
Speaker 5: red zone as well, because Cup was their go to

487
00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 5: guy for the most.

488
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:18,360
Speaker 1: Part in the red zone.

489
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:20,440
Speaker 5: He was targeted in the red zone on twenty one

490
00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:23,640
Speaker 5: percent of his one hundred and fifty career targets, and

491
00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 5: you know, he caught eight touchdowns on thirty one RedZone targets,

492
00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 5: And of course red zone is just kind of an

493
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:32,400
Speaker 5: arbitrary cutoff. We're just trying to identify and what Sean

494
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 5: McVay is doing in scoring position. But you know, obviously

495
00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:36,800
Speaker 5: a target from like the five is different from a

496
00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:40,160
Speaker 5: target from the eighteen. But for the most part, Cup

497
00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 5: was their guy in there, and Josh Reynolds is going

498
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:46,119
Speaker 5: to probably take that role because ten of his thirty

499
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:49,199
Speaker 5: six career targets, so twenty eight percent of his targets

500
00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 5: so far as a RAM, have come in the red zone.

501
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:54,600
Speaker 5: He's kind of been used as a specialist. That's a

502
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:58,800
Speaker 5: lot different from Robert Woods. Only nine percent of his

503
00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:00,880
Speaker 5: targets with the RAMS have come in the red zone.

504
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:03,720
Speaker 5: So Sean McVay has been a little bit hesitant, or

505
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:05,800
Speaker 5: maybe Woods has been a little bit more of a

506
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 5: dec I gotta.

507
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 1: Go back and watch to see exactly what's going on there.

508
00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:10,880
Speaker 5: But the bottom line is Woods hasn't been targeted nearly

509
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,680
Speaker 5: as much in the red zone as as the other guys,

510
00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:16,480
Speaker 5: and even Brandon Cooks has a you know, fourteen percent

511
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:17,879
Speaker 5: of his targets have come in the red zone this

512
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 5: year with the rams.

513
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:19,960
Speaker 1: So we we'll have.

514
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:22,600
Speaker 5: To see if if Woods gets a little bump there

515
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,439
Speaker 5: with cup out or those targets keep going to Reynolds,

516
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 5: because they could very well keep going to Reynolds and

517
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:30,680
Speaker 5: create a situation where you could have another one of

518
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:33,399
Speaker 5: those games or Reynolds, you know, has that to multi

519
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 5: touchdown upside, even though I think he only caught in

520
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:37,199
Speaker 5: that game, he had two touchdowns, he only caught with

521
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:37,960
Speaker 5: three or four balls.

522
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 1: If I'm not going yeah, so you.

523
00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,359
Speaker 5: Might have another situation like that, And that's kind of

524
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 5: That's probably one of the things that's going to ultimately

525
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:48,639
Speaker 5: decide the slate in the tournaments for DFS, is you

526
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 5: know what ends up happening with Josh Reynolds.

527
00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:52,200
Speaker 1: Is it going to be him, Is it going to

528
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:54,480
Speaker 1: be somebody like Everett or Tyler Higbee.

529
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 5: Those guys would probably be the you know, not as

530
00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:00,119
Speaker 5: good of a bet as Reynolds, just based on on

531
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:03,560
Speaker 5: past usage to be the go to guy in scoring

532
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 5: position for Sean mcvay's offense. But I think it's going

533
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 5: to be a lot of Todd Girley, to be completely honest.

534
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 2: Obviously, Girly's in his own, you know, workhorse here. But

535
00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 2: I think other than Woods.

536
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:14,720
Speaker 3: Cooks and Reynolds, the only other guys you can kind

537
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:17,480
Speaker 3: of consider here is Gerald Everett. I would stay away

538
00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:20,640
Speaker 3: from Tyler Higby just because they view Everett as kind

539
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,920
Speaker 3: of better pass catcher tight end for good reason.

540
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 2: He is the better pass catcher, I.

541
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:27,720
Speaker 1: Mean, yeah, I mean yeah, Well, it depends what you're like.

542
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:29,159
Speaker 5: If you're playing like the if you're trying to win

543
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 5: the showdown, like the you know, the big Delarge Field tournament,

544
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 5: I think you have to consider like every pretty much everybody.

545
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 1: Just because I think it was Algick.

546
00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:40,639
Speaker 5: I mean, I don't think he ended up in the

547
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 5: winning lineup, but Algrick Robinson caught a touchdown today and

548
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:45,879
Speaker 5: I'm sure that could have like factored in if somebody

549
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 5: had actually played him. But for sure, but yeah, I agree,

550
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 5: I think Everett is the He's like the more athletic guy,

551
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 5: He's the better pass catcher, you know, he gets targeted

552
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 5: at a higher rate when when he's in there.

553
00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, and so we are going to see this different

554
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 3: Rams offense with Cup out of the lineup. Like you said,

555
00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 3: Robert Woods was their featured slot receiver during that stretch.

556
00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:09,520
Speaker 3: With Cup out, Cooks as they're left receiver, and Reynolds

557
00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:12,399
Speaker 3: as they're right. Interestingly, in this matchup, the Chiefs haven't

558
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 3: moved their cornerbacks around mus this year, so we can

559
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:17,879
Speaker 3: pretty accurately forecast who these guys are going to be seeing.

560
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:20,920
Speaker 3: Robert Woods is going to be seeing Kendall Fuller, who

561
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,199
Speaker 3: I think is a Chief's best overall cornerback. He's the

562
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,879
Speaker 3: guy that got in the trade with Washington for Alex Smith,

563
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 3: one of.

564
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 2: The league's better nickelbacks. Brandon Cook's going to be on

565
00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:31,560
Speaker 2: the left side against Steven Nelson.

566
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 3: Who is good news for Cooks, the Chief's slowest cornerback

567
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 3: in terms of their forty times. So I like that

568
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 3: matchup for Cooks, and then Josh Reillends will be on

569
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 3: the right with Orlando Scandrick. I mean, we've watched the

570
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 3: Chiefs are They're not exactly a defense we need to

571
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,879
Speaker 3: fear per se, but I mean they've kind of been

572
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 3: turning into a little bit of a run funnel defense.

573
00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:51,440
Speaker 2: Couldn't help a host.

574
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 3: They were a top two defense against number one, number

575
00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 3: two wide receivers in Dvoa, their thirteenth against the pass. Overall,

576
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 3: there's twenty ninth against run. Do you think this could

577
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 3: be a similar thing as the Saints where we kind

578
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 3: of wrote this defense off as like one of the

579
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:08,160
Speaker 3: worst in the league to start the year, and maybe

580
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 3: they're a little bit closer like the average and give

581
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:12,359
Speaker 3: them credit for I think so.

582
00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:13,199
Speaker 1: I think so.

583
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:15,399
Speaker 5: That was kind of my thought coming into the season

584
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:17,480
Speaker 5: as well. You know, I looked at this defense and

585
00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 5: I knew it would be uh, you know, it wouldn't

586
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,320
Speaker 5: be up to the standard of previous Chiefs defenses, but

587
00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:23,880
Speaker 5: I thought, you know, if you gave it some time,

588
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 5: they had kind of enough there to make it work.

589
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:28,720
Speaker 5: And that's what they're that's what they're doing right now.

590
00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 5: I think you kind of hit on it though. If

591
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 5: they're becoming a run funnel, I would imagine that. You know,

592
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 5: Sean McVay looking at the same numbers we are, you know,

593
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 5: saw his offense pass offense night not quite live up

594
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:43,159
Speaker 5: to you know, what it was with Cupp in the lineup,

595
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 5: and he's probably thinking of ways to continue to run

596
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:47,120
Speaker 5: the ball on this on this team.

597
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 1: And you know, we talked about it last week.

598
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:52,200
Speaker 5: You know, he's using these jet sweeps and Anthony and

599
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 5: Miko actually did a great article over on the Action

600
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 5: Network about you know, both of these teams really using

601
00:25:57,200 --> 00:25:59,359
Speaker 5: and using the jet sweep, you know, set jet motion,

602
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 5: sending a receiver in motion and using that you know,

603
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 5: in the past game and in the run game.

604
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 1: And I think you'll probably.

605
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:09,920
Speaker 5: See Cooks would get a couple extra carries as well

606
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 5: to kind of you know, supplement some of those you know,

607
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:15,360
Speaker 5: kind of high percentage pass plays that would have gone

608
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:17,359
Speaker 5: a cup. I think that's probably what Sean McVay is

609
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 5: gonna draw up. I think this, uh, I think he's

610
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 5: going to want to run the ball because you know,

611
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:24,400
Speaker 5: his defense has been struggling at times lately, pretty much

612
00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:26,480
Speaker 5: all the time. I think you're going to see a

613
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 5: run heavy game plan from Sean McVay with you know,

614
00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:31,639
Speaker 5: a lot obviously a lot of Todd Gurley in the

615
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 5: passing game as well. But I wouldn't be surprised if

616
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,240
Speaker 5: you know, this is one of the run heaviest game

617
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:38,360
Speaker 5: plans we've seen all year.

618
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I was writing my matchup manifesto articles

619
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 3: a week looking at every game in Week eleven, and

620
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:48,480
Speaker 3: I really do think that this Rams offensive line run

621
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:51,639
Speaker 3: blocking versus the Chiefs front seven what is and was

622
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:54,919
Speaker 3: the single biggest mismatch of eleven. I mean, this is

623
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:57,320
Speaker 3: the number one offensive line that justin lane theirs per

624
00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 3: rush versus the number thirty two defensive.

625
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 2: Line just line there as karrush.

626
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:03,360
Speaker 3: I've been tracking to some of those numbers in each

627
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 3: specific matchups since Week four, and this is easily the largest.

628
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:08,199
Speaker 2: Combined that some.

629
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:10,879
Speaker 3: So I mean, if Garley can't find some lanes in

630
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:13,600
Speaker 3: this matchup, I will be shocked moving on to the

631
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 3: Chiefs side of the ball on offense. So Sammy Watkins

632
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:19,720
Speaker 3: is questionable with a hamstring injury, I'm sorry, with a

633
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:20,359
Speaker 3: foot injury.

634
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 2: He's had a couple injuries this year.

635
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 3: The Chiefs went ahead though, in elevated Garrick Deeter from

636
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 3: their practice squad. He spent last season on their practice squad.

637
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 3: He's not a name he really into worry about playing,

638
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:34,880
Speaker 3: but that move does signify that we're kind of expecting

639
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 3: Watkins to be out.

640
00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 2: Now.

641
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:38,640
Speaker 3: If we're gonna go and assum Watkins is out, we're

642
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 3: expecting Tyreek Hill to be with Chris Connelly as always,

643
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 3: and also DeMarcus Robinson three wide receiver sets. We saw

644
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 3: this in basically two games without Sammy Watkins and Tyreek

645
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 3: ended up with twenty three targets. Travis Kelcey had nineteen,

646
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 3: and Colin was the next closest guy at eight. Chris,

647
00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 3: if we're assuming Sammy Watkins is out here, how are

648
00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:58,440
Speaker 3: you approaching this Chiefs passing game?

649
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it's going to be more concentrated because

650
00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 5: you know, so Hill and Kelsey each of them get

651
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 5: targeted on twenty three percent of their routes. Then you

652
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 5: have Watkins at eighteen percent, Spencer Ware the backup running

653
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:14,640
Speaker 5: back at eighteen percent, DeMarcus Robinson at fifteen, Hunts at fourteen,

654
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:17,720
Speaker 5: Demetrius Harris the backup tight end at twelve percent, and

655
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 5: then Conwy way down there at eight percent. So so

656
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:24,600
Speaker 5: Conley's not a guy that you know just because Sammy

657
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 5: Watkins is out, and it's kind of similar to Josh

658
00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:28,399
Speaker 5: Reynolds in a way. It's just that Reynolds tends to

659
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 5: get a little more you know, usage in the red zone.

660
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,440
Speaker 5: But he's also not a very high usage receiver either.

661
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:34,919
Speaker 5: But you know, conwe is not a guy that's just

662
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 5: gonna automatically start getting open more just because Sammy Watkins

663
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 5: isn't in the lineup. So I think that, you know,

664
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 5: obviously Conwey has upside just for being attached to Patrick Mahomes,

665
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 5: But I don't think his outlook changes significantly just because

666
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 5: Watkins is out. I think, if anything, it just kind

667
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 5: of gives a few more targets to Hill and Kelsey

668
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:01,880
Speaker 5: because Patrick Mahomes has just been a guy that that's

669
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 5: been feeding those guys, and you know, he you know,

670
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 5: the Chiefs will kind of scheme up and script some

671
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 5: plays for for the complimentary pieces at times, but when Patrick,

672
00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 5: when it comes down to it, Patrick Mahomes is targeting

673
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 5: Hill and Kelsey at high rates. And uh, I think

674
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 5: that'll that'll just kind of increase in this matchup and

675
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 5: and and these guys will continue to play second fiddle.

676
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 2: Yeah.

677
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 3: I think I highlighted Conley as one of my worst

678
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 3: plays in one of those weeks, and it was out

679
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 3: because we do have to remember, I mean, just because

680
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:30,960
Speaker 3: the guys going to the role even if you are

681
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 3: gifted athlete like Conley is, and you're being under used

682
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:37,720
Speaker 3: in your current role, not guaranteed for more targets. So yeah,

683
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 3: and then the Marcus Robinson's means he's in the same

684
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 3: boat as Chris Colmley. So really, if you're if you're

685
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 3: going off of Tyreek and Kelsey, I mean, it's obviously

686
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 3: a showdown, so you gotta do what you gotta do,

687
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 3: but those guys get complimentary options.

688
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 5: It's actually interesting because like so if Robinson, if Robinson

689
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 5: is going to end up playing as like a full

690
00:29:56,880 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 5: time receiver, I think he would end up having a

691
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 5: little bit more upside just because he's been targeted on

692
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 5: fifteen percent of his routes to Comedy's eight, So that's

693
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 5: almost double. So like if they're getting like if they're

694
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 5: running a similar number of routes, you know, based on

695
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 5: what's happened so far this year, Robinson would essentially have

696
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 5: like double the upside of Conwy. I mean, I don't

697
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 5: know if that will continue, but definitely something to keep

698
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 5: in mind.

699
00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:21,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, and he's definitely the I mean the lesser name

700
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 2: I think out of two lesser names. So we'll see

701
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:26,240
Speaker 2: how the ownership shakes out on that.

702
00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 3: As far as the cornerback situation goes, if you've hush

703
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 3: any Rams games this year, you've probably seen Marcus Peters

704
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 3: getting roasted a time or two.

705
00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 2: I was sticking up for Peters. I think I still

706
00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:38,640
Speaker 2: think he's playing hurt a little.

707
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 3: Bit, and I appreciate Peters is one of the few

708
00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 3: cornerbacks that will kind of gamble and take chances to

709
00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:47,120
Speaker 3: make plays on the ball versus kind of just letting

710
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:49,840
Speaker 3: your receiver pick you apart. But unfortunately, for the last

711
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 3: seven eight weeks, I mean, he's been gambling without much success,

712
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:55,080
Speaker 3: and he's just been getting roasted continuously.

713
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 2: One of only three.

714
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 3: Cornerbacks this year to allow at least six touchdowns and coverage,

715
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 3: he's a shot DeVante Adams and Michael Thomas.

716
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 2: Over the last few weeks.

717
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 3: Adams went for one hundred and thirty three yards on

718
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 3: five catches, Michael Thomas two hundred and eleven yards twelve

719
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 3: catches in a touchdown. I mean there's a chance, I

720
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:15,000
Speaker 3: guess they could ask him to shadow Tyreek Hill, but

721
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:18,600
Speaker 3: neither Hill nor Watkins have spent over forty percent of

722
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 3: their snaps in a single location this year. I mean,

723
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 3: Andy Reid does such a good job with just continuously

724
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 3: moving them all around the formation. Chris, is there anything

725
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 3: kind of in this Rams secondary or the Rams defense

726
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 3: in general that worries you about this matchup? Or is

727
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 3: it just I mean, let Tyreek run free?

728
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:36,400
Speaker 5: Oh no, I think there's definitely some concern in this matchup.

729
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:37,280
Speaker 1: Same thing.

730
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:39,880
Speaker 5: You know why you're seeing this spread kind of hold

731
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 5: steady at the Rams, you know, three to three and

732
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 5: a half, and it's not you know, there's a lot

733
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 5: of public support on the Chiefs, but the line is

734
00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 5: not really coming down below that key number three. And

735
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 5: I think it's because Patrick Mahomes he should expect to

736
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 5: get pressure a decent amount in this game from this

737
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 5: Rams front. You have Aaron Donald, now you have Dante Fowler,

738
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 5: and Football Focus actually has you know, the Rams as

739
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:06,239
Speaker 5: the number one team in terms of projected pressure rate

740
00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 5: for this week against the Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes

741
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,240
Speaker 5: when he's had a clean pocket this year, has a

742
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 5: one forty point five passer rating that's first in the league,

743
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 5: seventy eight percent completions, twenty seven touchdowns and three picks.

744
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 5: But then when he's under pressure, that drops to you know,

745
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 5: and of course every quarterback drops, but under pressure, Mahomes

746
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,360
Speaker 5: passer rating only sixty four point six, that's twenty fourth

747
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 5: in the league, completing only forty three percent of his

748
00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 5: passes with four touchdowns and four interceptions. So he's a whole,

749
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 5: he's a he's a human when he's pressured. Essentially, now

750
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 5: we know he has these physical gifts that you know,

751
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 5: he can mitigate pressure, you know, after a while, like

752
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:46,040
Speaker 5: it's only a matter of time before he improvises and

753
00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 5: kind of creates something out of nothing, kind of like

754
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 5: Aaron Rodgers. But that's been the way to kind of

755
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 5: slow him down a bit is to get pressure on

756
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:55,920
Speaker 5: him and the Rams that's the one thing they should

757
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:59,080
Speaker 5: be able to do in this matchup. So that's another

758
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:03,160
Speaker 5: kind of wrinkle to this whole Stanley Watkins potentially being out.

759
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 5: The Rams run defense hasn't been very good either, so

760
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:09,440
Speaker 5: I think we could see Kareem Hunt is a very

761
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 5: big part of this game plan, both from running the ball,

762
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 5: but also maybe catching a few screen passes and things

763
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 5: to kind of slow down that pass rush a bit

764
00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 5: and take advantage of some of those guys in coverage

765
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 5: because you know, if Patrick Mahomes is getting pressured, you

766
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 5: know he's on the road, so you know that that's all.

767
00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 5: That's why that changes, and that's why that line change.

768
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 5: I think a little bit too, when you know you

769
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 5: don't have the home field advantage.

770
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 1: And one of the things about the home field advantages that.

771
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 5: That crowd noise and you know it's easier to kind

772
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 5: of deal with pressure when you're at home and you

773
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:42,959
Speaker 5: can you can hear your your your audibles and whatnot.

774
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:45,240
Speaker 5: So I think this kind of sets up as like

775
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 5: a sneaky spot where, especially in like a large field GPP,

776
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 5: you know you're you're going to be looking for that

777
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:53,160
Speaker 5: that cheaper playing on DraftKings, you know they let you

778
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:55,640
Speaker 5: play the defenses, and you know this is a spot

779
00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 5: where I don't think anyone's going to want to touch

780
00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 5: either defense. But you know in these high scoring games,

781
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 5: you know we see it at a time defense could

782
00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 5: you know, player makes a mistake, you could end up

783
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 5: with a touchdown or two from this rams defense.

784
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 1: So I think that's kind of a play you got

785
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:10,480
Speaker 1: to consider.

786
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 5: And of course you have that natural correlation if you

787
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 5: stack them with Todd Gurley.

788
00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:16,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, man, I think he made a good point here

789
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 3: about the pressure that the Rams could bring. I think

790
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 3: this could be kind of in turn. I mean, I

791
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:23,800
Speaker 3: think the Rams defensive line is easily the best single

792
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:27,040
Speaker 3: defensive position group on either team in this game. Aaron

793
00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:30,360
Speaker 3: Donald obviously all world defensive tackle on the donak and

794
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 3: Sue has been playing great this year too.

795
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 2: They're PFS number.

796
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 3: One, number nineteen overall interior defenders this season, and they

797
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:39,799
Speaker 3: added Dante Fowler from the trade deadline to give them

798
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 3: an edge rusher where you know, Sue and Donald were

799
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:44,239
Speaker 3: able to push the pocket and the quarterback can't just

800
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 3: escape out the outside every play like Patrick Mahomes loves

801
00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:49,440
Speaker 3: to do, so might be able to keep them inside

802
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 3: the pocket a little more. But what really interested me

803
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 3: was I was digging into the adjusted lineyards kind of

804
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 3: directionally for the Chiefs, and they're really good on the outside,

805
00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:00,760
Speaker 3: which makes sense. I mean, we hear Josh Schwartz, fellow

806
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 3: Action Network analysts, always hyping up his brother Mitch and

807
00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 3: how great he's playing. Obviously Eric Fisher really highly paid

808
00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 3: left tackle on the other side. I mean, they're strong

809
00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 3: at the tackles, but there's center Mitch Morris is out

810
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:14,720
Speaker 3: with Americ concussion. Their guard players hasn't been as strong

811
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 3: this year, and I mean, if they're going to try

812
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:18,840
Speaker 3: to do that against Donald and Sue up the middle,

813
00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:21,439
Speaker 3: I'm not saying it can't happen. The Chiefs are talent

814
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 3: enough to scheme hunt some rushing lines, but that's an

815
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:25,760
Speaker 3: issue in the middle of the line.

816
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:26,239
Speaker 1: Yeah.

817
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 5: I think what's been there downfall a lot of times

818
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:30,800
Speaker 5: is that when you can kind of push the pocket

819
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:32,799
Speaker 5: and rush from from the inside, is a lot of

820
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 5: times you end up running right at these guys and

821
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:36,680
Speaker 5: they just like running up the field the other way,

822
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:38,759
Speaker 5: and you can kind of make it work that way.

823
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 1: So we'll see what I like.

824
00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:42,800
Speaker 5: Andy Reid's definitely going to have to kind of scheme

825
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 5: up some new wrinkles for his offenses if he's gonna

826
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 5: be without Sammy Watkins and he's facing this much pressure,

827
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:51,520
Speaker 5: because it's not gonna be ideal on the road if

828
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 5: Patrick Mahomes is constantly under durest with this new and

829
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,880
Speaker 5: improved RAMS front. But at the same time, if you're

830
00:35:57,920 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 5: the Rams, it's kind of like you're in a conundrum

831
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,759
Speaker 5: too if you're because it's like, Okay, well, we know

832
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:06,040
Speaker 5: we need to get pressure on Patrick Mahomes, but you know,

833
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:08,279
Speaker 5: are we gonna kind of blitz them, We're gonna, you know,

834
00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 5: because they like to play man coverage, and I think

835
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:13,560
Speaker 5: you mentioned it. You know, Peters has kind of traveled

836
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 5: with with the receivers at times. But you know, if

837
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 5: you if you do that, you know that's you're putting

838
00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:22,200
Speaker 5: Tyreek Hill in man coverage now. And so I mean,

839
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 5: you know, it's obviously that's kind of a blessing that

840
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:26,960
Speaker 5: you know, it's a gift for the Rams if if

841
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:28,840
Speaker 5: Watkins is out, because that's just another guy you have

842
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:31,279
Speaker 5: to account for. So I think there are some kind

843
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:33,759
Speaker 5: of little things that you know, it's almost favoring the

844
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:36,280
Speaker 5: Rams a little bit, even though you know, the Rams

845
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:38,880
Speaker 5: have haven't been quite up to par and offense themselves.

846
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:41,799
Speaker 5: Without Cup, the Rams I think have the best, the

847
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 5: better matchup in the run game. Still, you know, even

848
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 5: though the Rams haven't been good, I think the Chiefs

849
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 5: that you like you mentioned it, they've been you know,

850
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:50,239
Speaker 5: bottom the worst in the league. So this is kind

851
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 5: of setting up is an interesting situation where it feels like,

852
00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 5: you know, the Rams are these three point favorites. Everyone

853
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:57,719
Speaker 5: should be you should kind everyone's kind of back in

854
00:36:57,760 --> 00:36:59,759
Speaker 5: the Chiefs. It kind of feels like that's the right play.

855
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:02,400
Speaker 5: But yeah, I could see the Rams winning this game

856
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:06,239
Speaker 5: and surprising people in terms of being able to maybe

857
00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:08,479
Speaker 5: win this game a little more significantly, I should say,

858
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 5: than what we might expect.

859
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:12,440
Speaker 2: I like that call. I like that call.

860
00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:14,200
Speaker 3: All right, last thing on this game before we move

861
00:37:14,239 --> 00:37:17,239
Speaker 3: on to Thanksgiving, because I feel sadly didn't bring this

862
00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:19,920
Speaker 3: guy up yet. But the Chiefs actual number one receiver

863
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:22,720
Speaker 3: me and the person that leads them on targets, Travis Kelcey.

864
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 3: I think he's set up pretty well here. I mean

865
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:27,440
Speaker 3: he spends a lot of his time in the slot

866
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 3: as it is. Nikel Roby Coleman has been a great nickelback,

867
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:32,920
Speaker 3: but look, I mean he's five 't seven hundred and

868
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:33,560
Speaker 3: seventy pounds.

869
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 2: Well, Marcus Joiners one of the smaller free safeties.

870
00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:38,319
Speaker 3: In the league of five foot eight John Johnson's good,

871
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:40,399
Speaker 3: but I mean he's only six foot two ten. I mean,

872
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:43,760
Speaker 3: I think Travis Kelsey is as athletic and way bigger

873
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 3: and basically anyone that the Rams are able to put

874
00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 3: in front of him.

875
00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:49,319
Speaker 2: Am I wrong? Oh?

876
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:49,919
Speaker 1: No, You're not wrong.

877
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:52,320
Speaker 5: All this is this is every week pretty much? Is

878
00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:54,840
Speaker 5: this smash spot for Travis Kelsey? This is no different?

879
00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:57,880
Speaker 5: And you know, again, I think that the targets are

880
00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 5: going to be even more concentrated, you know, and then

881
00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 5: usual with if Watkins is out. So I think I

882
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:07,760
Speaker 5: love Kelsey, I love I love Hill in this matchup

883
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:10,400
Speaker 5: because those are the guys that passion Mahomes is going

884
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:10,719
Speaker 5: to look to.

885
00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:13,680
Speaker 2: Cannot wait to watch all these points.

886
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:17,840
Speaker 3: All right, let's get going on our Thanksgiving preview, Chris,

887
00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:20,000
Speaker 3: Before we dive in these games, I gotta ask, what's

888
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:22,880
Speaker 3: your favorite Thanksgiving football moment that pops out to you?

889
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 4: So?

890
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 5: I actually wrote, I mean so, I wrote about this

891
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:29,360
Speaker 5: in my personal story article over at the Action Network.

892
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 5: You can find a wink pretty much any of my

893
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:33,440
Speaker 5: fantasy WABS articles if you want to read it. But

894
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:37,120
Speaker 5: I think it was nineteen ninety two or three. I

895
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:41,400
Speaker 5: want to say where the Cowboys are playing the Miami Dolphins,

896
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:45,799
Speaker 5: and the Cowboys had just stopped a game winning field

897
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:48,200
Speaker 5: goal from having I think they blocked the kick, and

898
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:50,719
Speaker 5: Leon Lett goes and like touches the ball, like illegally

899
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:55,320
Speaker 5: touches the ball, essentially giving the Dolphins another possession and

900
00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 5: another chance to kick the game wing field goal, and

901
00:38:57,200 --> 00:38:59,759
Speaker 5: like it was just snowing like crazy, So they had

902
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 5: all these players kind of like you know when the

903
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:04,640
Speaker 5: commercial break, just shoveling all the snow and it was

904
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:07,040
Speaker 5: like it was crazy. And then Dolphins didn't win the game.

905
00:39:07,080 --> 00:39:10,439
Speaker 5: But that's one of my first first football memories really,

906
00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 5: so that always picks out.

907
00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 3: Oh man, I mean, Leon led if you didn't think

908
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:18,480
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl fumble was bad enough, that poor guy, Yeah,

909
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:19,000
Speaker 3: I thought my.

910
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:21,880
Speaker 2: Favorite thanks in the moment. It was like three or something.

911
00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 3: It was the first year they gave out that fox

912
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:28,480
Speaker 3: about that stupid stupid galloping Gobbler trophy and Emma Smith,

913
00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:31,239
Speaker 3: you know, one hundred plus yards touchdown. He won the

914
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:34,200
Speaker 3: award except the trophy after the game, but they cut

915
00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 3: to him walking back the locker room and you just

916
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:38,120
Speaker 3: saw a you know, thirty plus year old Emma Smith

917
00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 3: throw this trophy away in the trash can as he

918
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 3: had a million other things to worry about, like filming

919
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:46,720
Speaker 3: those old Visa commercials and all that so good stuff

920
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 3: from ninety and two thousands Cowboys.

921
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:51,680
Speaker 2: All right, first game, we'll look at.

922
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:55,840
Speaker 3: The Chicago Bears are at the Detroit Lions as always

923
00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:58,879
Speaker 3: in Detroit for the first Thanksgiving game. Lions are three

924
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:01,680
Speaker 3: point underdogs at home. Chris we salt tonight. I mean,

925
00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:04,760
Speaker 3: this Bears teams looking good. Trubisky has a two wins

926
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:06,640
Speaker 3: over the HEFC North in the last two weeks.

927
00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:08,920
Speaker 2: Didn't have any of his entire career up until then.

928
00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 3: But we've seen with this offense kind of week to

929
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:14,719
Speaker 3: week the weapons are inconsistent. Not really, I don't think

930
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:17,080
Speaker 3: it's any fall of their own. They're all pretty talented players.

931
00:40:17,120 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 3: But you know, between Cohen Howard, a Rob Miller, Gabriel,

932
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:23,239
Speaker 3: there's just a lot of mouse feed burdon a tight end.

933
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:25,959
Speaker 2: Two. How are you approaching all these Bears weapons around

934
00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:26,560
Speaker 2: miss Trubisky?

935
00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:29,040
Speaker 1: You know? So Allen Robinson came back.

936
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:31,399
Speaker 5: Was it last week at this It was last week

937
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:33,480
Speaker 5: they played at each other, right, Yeah, so they played

938
00:40:33,520 --> 00:40:34,239
Speaker 5: each other last week.

939
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:36,120
Speaker 1: Alan Robinson came back and he had a.

940
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:40,120
Speaker 5: Huge game, and Darius Sway, Detroit's best corner, was out

941
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 5: for that game.

942
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:42,839
Speaker 1: So I would guess that because that happened.

943
00:40:42,560 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 5: So recently, Detroit is gonna look at this and say,

944
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 5: you know, Matt patric is gonna be like, we don't

945
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 5: want this guy Alan Robinson to do that to us again.

946
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:50,200
Speaker 5: So I think that's gonna kind of be the first

947
00:40:50,239 --> 00:40:53,239
Speaker 5: and foremost thing that he's gonna he's gonna look look

948
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 5: at and try to take away. So I would I

949
00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 5: would probably kind of go back to three Cohen.

950
00:40:59,200 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 1: I would go to Taylor Gabriel.

951
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:03,719
Speaker 5: I think Anthony Miller has kind of cemented himself as

952
00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:06,239
Speaker 5: an every week fixture at this point. You know, we

953
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:08,040
Speaker 5: caught a touchdown and they didn't quite have the amount

954
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:10,239
Speaker 5: of targets that we usually see from him, but he

955
00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:12,960
Speaker 5: continues to make plays week in and week out, and

956
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 5: Detroit outside of Sleigh, their next best corner is ranked

957
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:20,919
Speaker 5: one hundredth in coverage in PFF's Cornerback Grade. So Matt Nag,

958
00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:23,520
Speaker 5: you will be looking at that in ways to kind

959
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 5: of exploit those matchups.

960
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:26,600
Speaker 1: So you'll probably see.

961
00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:29,800
Speaker 5: Pretty much all the other because even though there's five

962
00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:33,360
Speaker 5: guys on the Bears that could can conceivably kind of

963
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:37,480
Speaker 5: be in that fifteen twenty percent target range target share

964
00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:39,560
Speaker 5: range in a given week, that's really it for them.

965
00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:42,239
Speaker 5: Like they don't really target many other players that much

966
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:44,960
Speaker 5: at all. You know, maybe a random Adam Shaheen pass here,

967
00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:49,680
Speaker 5: Josh Bellamy passed there, But for the most part, it's Robinson.

968
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:51,880
Speaker 1: Gabriel, Miller, Burton, and Cohen.

969
00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 5: So I think in this one you're probably going to

970
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:57,440
Speaker 5: see more Gabriel, more Cohen, more Miller, and more Burton

971
00:41:57,480 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 5: and Alan Robinson will take a little bit of a

972
00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:01,720
Speaker 5: backseat because that the Detroit defense is really it's pretty

973
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:06,480
Speaker 5: exploitable everywhere, I would say, except Slay, So I think

974
00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:08,440
Speaker 5: Slay is just the one guy that you're probably not

975
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:11,160
Speaker 5: trying to attack too much, even though Alan Robinson obviously

976
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:13,680
Speaker 5: good enough to win against most corners. But still, I

977
00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:15,400
Speaker 5: think I think that's kind of how things go in

978
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:18,760
Speaker 5: the NFL, especially in these divisional games second time around,

979
00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:21,760
Speaker 5: usually a little more low scoring and usually the same

980
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 5: you know, guy who went off in the first one

981
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:26,680
Speaker 5: doesn't necessarily go off again in the second one.

982
00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:29,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, I believe it was the goat Evan Silva that

983
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:32,359
Speaker 3: first brought up that. Really, since the Lions I brought

984
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:35,040
Speaker 3: in Damon Harrison to fix up their interior run defense,

985
00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:37,840
Speaker 3: I mean, they've just really started getting sheld in the secondary,

986
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:40,360
Speaker 3: So I mean taking away kind of any resemblance of

987
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:43,239
Speaker 3: a pass rush there hasn't helped them. I agree with

988
00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:45,120
Speaker 3: what you said about this being Taylor Gabriel's game. I

989
00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:46,920
Speaker 3: think we could have maybe seen a preview of how

990
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:50,280
Speaker 3: the Bears will attack the Lions tonight. I mean, Xavier

991
00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:54,080
Speaker 3: Rose locked up Alan Robinson tonight and Taylor Gabri ended

992
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:56,080
Speaker 3: up getting nine targets and they caught seven of them

993
00:42:56,080 --> 00:42:58,520
Speaker 3: for fifty two yards. So he only had three targets

994
00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 3: then catch any of them when they played the Lions last.

995
00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:03,760
Speaker 3: So I mean it makes sense that Naggie and Trubisky,

996
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:05,920
Speaker 3: according to Ly, are going to try to avoid throwing

997
00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:09,000
Speaker 3: at the best corner. The one factor I think that's

998
00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:11,400
Speaker 3: really big in this game is if the Lions can

999
00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:15,480
Speaker 3: shut down Trubisky's rushing ability. Obviously, Trubisky this year has

1000
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:18,200
Speaker 3: been really the number two rushing quarterback next to Cam

1001
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:21,720
Speaker 3: Lions have easily been number one rush defense against qvs,

1002
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 3: and they help can to just two rushing yards today.

1003
00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:26,480
Speaker 3: They play a ton of zone coverage, and when you're

1004
00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:29,040
Speaker 3: playing in the secondary and you're not forced to play man,

1005
00:43:29,120 --> 00:43:31,440
Speaker 3: you're you're facing the line of scrimmage, it's easier to

1006
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:32,759
Speaker 3: stop rushing quarterbacks.

1007
00:43:32,800 --> 00:43:34,719
Speaker 2: But we see what Trubisky a lot this year.

1008
00:43:34,719 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 3: I mean that's I think maybe rushing is the biggest

1009
00:43:37,200 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 3: part of I mean Lamar Jackson as we saw today,

1010
00:43:40,320 --> 00:43:42,520
Speaker 3: I mean, Trubisky really leans on that rushing ability, I

1011
00:43:42,520 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 3: think more than most quarterbacks. What do you think about

1012
00:43:44,600 --> 00:43:46,799
Speaker 3: kind of Trubisky specifically his matchup here.

1013
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:49,680
Speaker 5: That's a great point that he you know, he is

1014
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:52,759
Speaker 5: he adds a whole nother dimension when you look at

1015
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:55,520
Speaker 5: his game lines and you see all those outrageous numbers

1016
00:43:55,520 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 5: that he put up, those video game numbers, A lot

1017
00:43:57,200 --> 00:44:00,319
Speaker 5: of it is because of that rushing production. And also

1018
00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:03,200
Speaker 5: he's you know, he's throwing the ball pretty deep on average,

1019
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:05,319
Speaker 5: like he's I think his average up the target is,

1020
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:08,439
Speaker 5: you know, is pushing ten entering this week. So he's

1021
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:10,680
Speaker 5: a guy that will he'll throw it deep and he'll run,

1022
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:13,719
Speaker 5: and if they take away his runs, I think he'll

1023
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:16,359
Speaker 5: be able to stay in the pocket and still kind

1024
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:19,759
Speaker 5: of pick apart this defense. But you know, that does

1025
00:44:19,880 --> 00:44:22,040
Speaker 5: kind of knock down his upside if he's not going

1026
00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:23,200
Speaker 5: to be able to run quite as much.

1027
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:24,600
Speaker 1: But I mean we saw what Cam Newton was.

1028
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:27,560
Speaker 5: Able to do just throwing on this defense today, and

1029
00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:29,759
Speaker 5: so I wouldn't be too worried about it. I think

1030
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:32,359
Speaker 5: Trubisky is still a really high upside quarterback if he's playing,

1031
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:34,239
Speaker 5: if you're playing like the one game slate, I think

1032
00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:36,319
Speaker 5: you still got to consider him. Even though quarterbacks on

1033
00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:39,560
Speaker 5: draftings in the one point five X slot usually aren't

1034
00:44:39,560 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 5: the right move because usually that means that he's one

1035
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 5: of their pass catchers went off who's probably cheaper. And

1036
00:44:44,960 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 5: it's just the way draftings scoring works. It's kind of

1037
00:44:47,120 --> 00:44:49,640
Speaker 5: easier for pass catchers to outscore quarterback because they're getting

1038
00:44:49,640 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 5: that full point in the three at one hundred and

1039
00:44:51,680 --> 00:44:54,600
Speaker 5: all that. So, but Trubisky, because of his rushing ability,

1040
00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 5: you always have to consider him in that MVP slot

1041
00:44:58,080 --> 00:44:58,920
Speaker 5: and that captain slot.

1042
00:44:59,000 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 1: We'll see what.

1043
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:01,840
Speaker 5: Happens, but I think this, I think this defense is

1044
00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:02,919
Speaker 5: vulnerable either way.

1045
00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:04,640
Speaker 1: I think they'll still use Jordan Howard.

1046
00:45:04,760 --> 00:45:06,560
Speaker 5: I mean, you know, we kind of saw him even

1047
00:45:06,640 --> 00:45:09,040
Speaker 5: though they were facing a tough Minnesota defense. He's still

1048
00:45:09,200 --> 00:45:11,000
Speaker 5: you know, they were in positive games Scrypt and so

1049
00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:13,200
Speaker 5: he got a lot of work, and you know that's

1050
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 5: he's always going to be one of the best, if

1051
00:45:15,719 --> 00:45:19,600
Speaker 5: not the best, have the best touchdown probability when the

1052
00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:22,360
Speaker 5: Bears are playing, so I think he's a guy that

1053
00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:24,399
Speaker 5: you still want to roster, even though you know Damon

1054
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 5: Harrison has helped that run defense. And another thing I

1055
00:45:27,600 --> 00:45:30,040
Speaker 5: guess we should note too, going back to Allen Robinson

1056
00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:33,319
Speaker 5: and the matchup with Slay, is that Allan Robinson has

1057
00:45:33,480 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 5: been They've been moving all their receivers around, so Anthony

1058
00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:38,879
Speaker 5: Miller has been the primary slot receiver seventy one percent

1059
00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 5: of the snaps, but Allen Robinson has been in the

1060
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 5: slot for forty one percent of his snap So it's

1061
00:45:44,360 --> 00:45:47,560
Speaker 5: it's very possible that they could just kind of move

1062
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:50,319
Speaker 5: Alan Robinson around a little bit. And I believe Slay

1063
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:51,880
Speaker 5: doesn't travel in a slot very much, does he?

1064
00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:55,239
Speaker 3: So he didn't until this year, but Patricia's actually been

1065
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 3: using him a decent a mount in there, So I'm

1066
00:45:57,600 --> 00:45:59,239
Speaker 3: not sure if it'd be in every rep thing, but

1067
00:45:59,280 --> 00:46:01,400
Speaker 3: like high leverage third downplay, he might travel.

1068
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:03,600
Speaker 1: How was it. Has he been just as effective or

1069
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:04,680
Speaker 1: I haven't seen that.

1070
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:08,600
Speaker 3: I remember like against for example, against Deavante Adams, he

1071
00:46:08,640 --> 00:46:10,479
Speaker 3: was moving to slop and I mean DeVante was still

1072
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:11,560
Speaker 3: having a big day on him.

1073
00:46:11,600 --> 00:46:15,320
Speaker 5: So yeah, So I mean the bottom line is I

1074
00:46:15,360 --> 00:46:17,359
Speaker 5: would I would expect Robinson to.

1075
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:18,520
Speaker 1: Kind of be quieted a little bit.

1076
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:21,640
Speaker 5: He can definitely there is always that possibility of him

1077
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:23,359
Speaker 5: kind of moving around and still get a move.

1078
00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:26,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I mean even the most complete kind of

1079
00:46:26,680 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 3: shadow dates between these cornerbacks and wide receivers can still

1080
00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:32,640
Speaker 3: be eighty eighty five percent receiver proceeds to ball out

1081
00:46:32,680 --> 00:46:35,320
Speaker 3: on those other fifteen percent staffs, so absolute it was

1082
00:46:35,320 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 3: a possibility, all right, flipping over the other side of

1083
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:39,360
Speaker 3: the ball. So we talked a little bit earlier, a

1084
00:46:39,400 --> 00:46:41,960
Speaker 3: little bit unknown here at Carrie on Johnson if he's

1085
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 3: not able to suit up or expecting kind of enhance

1086
00:46:44,760 --> 00:46:47,480
Speaker 3: work for La Guerett Blonde and early downs potentially smarts

1087
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:50,520
Speaker 3: Zack center, THEO Riddic a little more backfield work in

1088
00:46:50,520 --> 00:46:53,759
Speaker 3: addition to receiving worklead he's had. I'm a little more

1089
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:56,279
Speaker 3: interested in talking about these pass catchers today. It was

1090
00:46:56,280 --> 00:46:58,800
Speaker 3: the first game without Marvin Jones. He was sidelined with

1091
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:01,040
Speaker 3: a knee injury. Not sure if he'll be ready to

1092
00:47:01,040 --> 00:47:04,320
Speaker 3: go by Thursday. We saw Kenny Galladay get fourteen targets.

1093
00:47:04,640 --> 00:47:08,640
Speaker 3: Bruce Ellington was second with nine targets, Theo Riddick had seven,

1094
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:11,160
Speaker 3: and the next closest guy was carry on with two

1095
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:13,600
Speaker 3: pretty nice and we talked about some of these different

1096
00:47:13,600 --> 00:47:16,520
Speaker 3: offenses tonight that we have a better idea of the

1097
00:47:16,560 --> 00:47:20,080
Speaker 3: condensed the targets. Who are going to do You think

1098
00:47:20,239 --> 00:47:22,399
Speaker 3: this kind of Galla Day, Ellington, Riddick one.

1099
00:47:22,320 --> 00:47:25,400
Speaker 2: Two three pecking order will hold true Thursday.

1100
00:47:25,440 --> 00:47:27,280
Speaker 1: It could. It's tough to SIT's.

1101
00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:30,280
Speaker 5: I think Galladay, You know, Galladay has kind of proven

1102
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:31,080
Speaker 5: that he is.

1103
00:47:31,800 --> 00:47:33,640
Speaker 1: He's kind of an up and down guy, like you

1104
00:47:33,640 --> 00:47:33,880
Speaker 1: know there.

1105
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:36,080
Speaker 5: I think there was a game earlier in the year

1106
00:47:36,440 --> 00:47:38,520
Speaker 5: when when they had traded Taatemer, we expected him to

1107
00:47:38,520 --> 00:47:40,400
Speaker 5: get out of targets and he didn't, and now he

1108
00:47:40,480 --> 00:47:42,120
Speaker 5: has over the last two games. He actually got a

1109
00:47:42,280 --> 00:47:46,319
Speaker 5: ridiculous eighty two percent share of the air yards in

1110
00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:50,520
Speaker 5: today's game. So he's just essentially their whole pass game downfield.

1111
00:47:50,520 --> 00:47:53,920
Speaker 5: Bruce Ellington, Yeah, twenty four percent of the targets, but

1112
00:47:54,200 --> 00:47:56,319
Speaker 5: his average up the target was only three point six.

1113
00:47:56,600 --> 00:47:58,760
Speaker 5: So essentially it was just you know, kind of dinking

1114
00:47:58,840 --> 00:48:02,120
Speaker 5: dunks with Ellington and Galladay is being used as that

1115
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:03,000
Speaker 5: downfield guy.

1116
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:06,120
Speaker 1: Now we saw the Bears today, you know, really limits

1117
00:48:06,520 --> 00:48:07,280
Speaker 1: what Stefan.

1118
00:48:07,400 --> 00:48:09,239
Speaker 5: I know, Stefan Diggs ended up with a big box

1119
00:48:09,280 --> 00:48:10,719
Speaker 5: score number, but a lot of that was, you know,

1120
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:13,160
Speaker 5: as they were trying to come back in that game

1121
00:48:13,200 --> 00:48:14,840
Speaker 5: after they got down, and it took a lot of

1122
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:16,480
Speaker 5: targets to get him to those whatever one hundred and

1123
00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:18,880
Speaker 5: twenty six yards or whatever you had, and the Bears

1124
00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:21,080
Speaker 5: have been really good about kind of keeping those plays

1125
00:48:21,080 --> 00:48:24,120
Speaker 5: in front of them, so you could see Galladay kind

1126
00:48:24,120 --> 00:48:26,240
Speaker 5: of run into a little more trouble.

1127
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:27,359
Speaker 1: But I mean, the volume is just.

1128
00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 5: So good that he has just massive upside at that price,

1129
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:34,799
Speaker 5: but his floor is still he still has a low

1130
00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:38,040
Speaker 5: excuse me, a low floor for somebody that projects that

1131
00:48:38,080 --> 00:48:40,040
Speaker 5: many targets is because we've we've seen him kind of

1132
00:48:40,040 --> 00:48:42,480
Speaker 5: disappear at times from games, and the Bears are one

1133
00:48:42,520 --> 00:48:45,759
Speaker 5: of these defenses that can definitely kind of take take

1134
00:48:45,800 --> 00:48:47,840
Speaker 5: him away if he's the focal point. That's why I

1135
00:48:47,840 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 5: would kind of almost I almost hope Marvin Jones is

1136
00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:53,040
Speaker 5: that because I think that especially because Marvin Jones can

1137
00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:54,759
Speaker 5: get downfield and is a threat and you have to

1138
00:48:54,800 --> 00:48:58,880
Speaker 5: remount for him unlike Bruce Ellington and Brandon Powell and

1139
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:02,080
Speaker 5: all these other guys. So I think, you know, we

1140
00:49:02,400 --> 00:49:04,719
Speaker 5: could see them run into some trouble because Matthew Stafford,

1141
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:07,680
Speaker 5: he's really missing Golden Tate. I mean, he you know,

1142
00:49:07,719 --> 00:49:09,399
Speaker 5: he took all those sacks in those first two games

1143
00:49:09,400 --> 00:49:12,120
Speaker 5: without Taate. This game, you know, they eke out the win,

1144
00:49:12,239 --> 00:49:14,879
Speaker 5: but you know, I think he was under six yards

1145
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:16,439
Speaker 5: in attempt in this one. I think you've got five

1146
00:49:16,440 --> 00:49:18,520
Speaker 5: point nine yards in attempt. So it just hasn't really

1147
00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 5: been the passing game really just hasn't been exposive for

1148
00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:24,799
Speaker 5: him since losing Tate, and I don't think that's going

1149
00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:26,920
Speaker 5: to change against the Chicago Bears.

1150
00:49:27,320 --> 00:49:28,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, Chicago Bears.

1151
00:49:28,440 --> 00:49:30,440
Speaker 3: I mean, it's always tough to tell the difference between

1152
00:49:30,640 --> 00:49:32,680
Speaker 3: how much of the pass rush helps the corners how

1153
00:49:32,719 --> 00:49:36,040
Speaker 3: much of the corners helps the pass rush, regardless, three

1154
00:49:36,120 --> 00:49:39,840
Speaker 3: of the top seventeen cornerbacks per Pro Football Focus starting

1155
00:49:39,880 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 3: the Bears secondary and quickly adding on that Bruce Ellington

1156
00:49:44,239 --> 00:49:47,080
Speaker 3: note only, I guess the only big thing I want

1157
00:49:47,120 --> 00:49:49,840
Speaker 3: to note there was that Ellington out snapped Riddick twenty

1158
00:49:49,880 --> 00:49:52,879
Speaker 3: one to three from the slot. So, I mean, Rick

1159
00:49:53,000 --> 00:49:55,359
Speaker 3: was pretty popular today in DFS. Seemed like he might

1160
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:59,400
Speaker 3: be trending towards almost a primary slot receiver running back hybrid,

1161
00:49:59,400 --> 00:50:02,000
Speaker 3: almost like the role we were hoping Duke Johnson would

1162
00:50:02,040 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 3: have all these years, but not quite looking like the case. Obviously,

1163
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:08,440
Speaker 3: seven targets are still seven targets, but we've seen them

1164
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:10,360
Speaker 3: really not overload Reddick in the past.

1165
00:50:10,360 --> 00:50:13,440
Speaker 2: Then seems like that'll probably be moving forward. I don't know.

1166
00:50:13,480 --> 00:50:15,439
Speaker 5: I mean, I think that he's probably actually a really

1167
00:50:15,480 --> 00:50:19,560
Speaker 5: good kind of fade recency bias play because maybe people

1168
00:50:19,600 --> 00:50:22,120
Speaker 5: will be a little more down on him than they

1169
00:50:22,160 --> 00:50:25,200
Speaker 5: should be. But I mean, he's he's got I think

1170
00:50:25,239 --> 00:50:27,759
Speaker 5: he's still got that ten target upside because again, you know,

1171
00:50:27,960 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 5: this is a game where Kenny Golladay got eighty two

1172
00:50:30,120 --> 00:50:33,000
Speaker 5: percent of the air yards. If the Bears limits that

1173
00:50:33,080 --> 00:50:35,640
Speaker 5: in any way, uh, you know, Matthew Stafford's going to

1174
00:50:35,680 --> 00:50:38,640
Speaker 5: be forced to dink and dunk even more because the

1175
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:41,800
Speaker 5: receivers besides, you know, really aren't getting open that quickly

1176
00:50:42,480 --> 00:50:45,440
Speaker 5: downfield for him, so's he's kind of forced to, you know,

1177
00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:49,200
Speaker 5: just have that checkdown option in mind. And if if,

1178
00:50:49,600 --> 00:50:52,399
Speaker 5: if the Bears defense forces him into more checkdowns, then

1179
00:50:52,440 --> 00:50:54,520
Speaker 5: I think you could see Riddick end up popping back up.

1180
00:50:54,520 --> 00:50:57,279
Speaker 5: It's just tough because if the if the Lions aren't

1181
00:50:57,320 --> 00:50:58,839
Speaker 5: able to move the ball, then you're getting a lot

1182
00:50:58,840 --> 00:51:01,480
Speaker 5: of empty targets. Like I think Warren Sharp always talks

1183
00:51:01,520 --> 00:51:03,680
Speaker 5: about this, like how it's not efficient to throw the

1184
00:51:03,719 --> 00:51:05,280
Speaker 5: running backs on third downs.

1185
00:51:05,400 --> 00:51:07,839
Speaker 1: It's actually very inefficient, usually ends in.

1186
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:11,200
Speaker 5: A punt, and so you know, that's kind of the

1187
00:51:11,200 --> 00:51:12,840
Speaker 5: worry you have with Ridick is like, Okay, if he

1188
00:51:12,880 --> 00:51:16,319
Speaker 5: catches eight balls for forty yards, but what is his

1189
00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:19,719
Speaker 5: real touchdown upside? But and especially if kerry On Johnson's out,

1190
00:51:19,920 --> 00:51:21,880
Speaker 5: you could even see him back in the back. I

1191
00:51:21,920 --> 00:51:23,640
Speaker 5: don't think Matt Patricia wants to give him too many

1192
00:51:23,640 --> 00:51:27,520
Speaker 5: carries because historically Ritick has just not been inefficient running out.

1193
00:51:27,520 --> 00:51:30,359
Speaker 5: We know, yards per carry is a very unstable, very

1194
00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:32,319
Speaker 5: noisy stat so it might be nothing, but you know,

1195
00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:35,239
Speaker 5: Riddick's under four yards to carry for his career, never

1196
00:51:35,280 --> 00:51:38,040
Speaker 5: really has been that guy to break off, you know,

1197
00:51:38,120 --> 00:51:40,640
Speaker 5: to consistently be effective in the run game.

1198
00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:43,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely a situation where you know, his ownership could

1199
00:51:43,680 --> 00:51:46,760
Speaker 3: swing wildly while his actual role and talent aren't moving

1200
00:51:47,120 --> 00:51:48,839
Speaker 3: all that much at all. But yeah, like you said,

1201
00:51:48,840 --> 00:51:51,400
Speaker 3: I mean, if carry on can Caaren had fifteen carries

1202
00:51:51,440 --> 00:51:53,960
Speaker 3: that he's obviously been there clear cut RB one for

1203
00:51:54,239 --> 00:51:56,359
Speaker 3: the last month or so, so if he can leave,

1204
00:51:56,920 --> 00:51:58,680
Speaker 3: Reddick can hopefully get more than the one carry he

1205
00:51:58,719 --> 00:51:59,240
Speaker 3: had today.

1206
00:51:59,600 --> 00:52:01,799
Speaker 2: Obviously help his flooring ceiling all right.

1207
00:52:01,960 --> 00:52:06,239
Speaker 3: Next game, mid afternoon, we got the Redskins visiting the Cowboys.

1208
00:52:06,440 --> 00:52:09,600
Speaker 3: This line opened up as Cowboys minus nine and a half.

1209
00:52:09,960 --> 00:52:12,760
Speaker 3: Vegas getting a little ambitious with the news of Alex

1210
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:16,680
Speaker 3: Smith being out dropped to Cowboys minus eight. The public's

1211
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:19,600
Speaker 3: at least respecting the Colt McCoy experience. And I'll tell

1212
00:52:19,640 --> 00:52:21,880
Speaker 3: you what, man, I don't really blame him. He didn't

1213
00:52:21,880 --> 00:52:24,080
Speaker 3: look bad today. We've seen enough of Colt McCoy over

1214
00:52:24,080 --> 00:52:27,240
Speaker 3: the years. I think he's a perfectly fine NFL backup.

1215
00:52:27,880 --> 00:52:31,839
Speaker 3: Fun fact, his last win actually came against the Cowboys

1216
00:52:31,840 --> 00:52:35,000
Speaker 3: in the twenty fourteen edition of their Thanksgiving Day rivalry.

1217
00:52:35,080 --> 00:52:43,560
Speaker 2: So chrisy buying the Colt McCoy R. Washington Redskins offense. No, no, no.

1218
00:52:43,640 --> 00:52:45,880
Speaker 1: Like man like it was.

1219
00:52:46,280 --> 00:52:50,759
Speaker 5: It's funny because I actually had the Texans minus three

1220
00:52:50,760 --> 00:52:53,319
Speaker 5: today and I feel like Colt McCoy ruined my bet.

1221
00:52:54,440 --> 00:52:56,040
Speaker 5: I feel like I would I feel like I would

1222
00:52:56,040 --> 00:52:59,799
Speaker 5: have been safe if Alex Smith had and he really

1223
00:52:59,800 --> 00:53:02,400
Speaker 5: did give him a spark, and you know, on a

1224
00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:05,520
Speaker 5: short week, weird things can happen, so I wouldn't like

1225
00:53:05,719 --> 00:53:07,760
Speaker 5: rule out like that. Like you mentioned it, that spread

1226
00:53:07,840 --> 00:53:09,920
Speaker 5: is a little is a little much for this kind

1227
00:53:09,960 --> 00:53:12,560
Speaker 5: of game, for a divisional game, you know, with two

1228
00:53:12,640 --> 00:53:15,919
Speaker 5: kind of middling teams, even with Alex Smith out.

1229
00:53:15,960 --> 00:53:17,120
Speaker 1: So I think the.

1230
00:53:17,040 --> 00:53:19,600
Speaker 5: Public, the public loves to bet on the Cowboys. So

1231
00:53:19,600 --> 00:53:21,040
Speaker 5: I think that's why you saw that line open as

1232
00:53:21,080 --> 00:53:23,319
Speaker 5: high as it did. I think, you know, the books

1233
00:53:23,360 --> 00:53:25,080
Speaker 5: kind of expected it to be bet down a little bit,

1234
00:53:25,120 --> 00:53:27,239
Speaker 5: but in this but I think the interesting thing to

1235
00:53:27,239 --> 00:53:30,920
Speaker 5: note is Trey Quinn was activated today. He ended up

1236
00:53:30,960 --> 00:53:34,279
Speaker 5: taking over in the slot, got four targets, caught them

1237
00:53:34,320 --> 00:53:37,560
Speaker 5: all forty nine yards ten percent targetshare, not really too

1238
00:53:37,640 --> 00:53:40,880
Speaker 5: much to write home about. But Cowboys generally do a

1239
00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:43,920
Speaker 5: good job defending on the outside. They have a kind

1240
00:53:43,960 --> 00:53:46,920
Speaker 5: of big physical corners in Byron Jones, who's I know,

1241
00:53:46,960 --> 00:53:49,359
Speaker 5: he's up there pretty high in PFFS grades as well,

1242
00:53:49,800 --> 00:53:53,920
Speaker 5: should obe AOUGIA, and so they're they're pretty decent on

1243
00:53:53,960 --> 00:53:54,560
Speaker 5: the outside.

1244
00:53:54,640 --> 00:53:57,239
Speaker 1: They struggle a little bit more over the middle of the.

1245
00:53:57,160 --> 00:53:59,480
Speaker 5: Field, and so because of that, I think you want

1246
00:53:59,520 --> 00:54:02,200
Speaker 5: to take note of Trey Quinn. Obviously, Jordan Reid, his

1247
00:54:02,320 --> 00:54:05,040
Speaker 5: target share keeps growing up and up, you know, even

1248
00:54:05,080 --> 00:54:07,400
Speaker 5: though he's not the same explosive player he was a

1249
00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:08,960
Speaker 5: couple of years ago when he had his huge season

1250
00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:11,920
Speaker 5: with Kirk Cousins. But he's still a guy that the

1251
00:54:11,960 --> 00:54:14,759
Speaker 5: most dependable guy in this Uh, you know, that that

1252
00:54:14,760 --> 00:54:16,799
Speaker 5: that the quarterback can throw to when he's standing back there.

1253
00:54:16,800 --> 00:54:19,560
Speaker 5: At this point, I would expect Josh Dockson to struggle

1254
00:54:19,600 --> 00:54:23,640
Speaker 5: with with those outside corners, Maurice Harris moving outside, Uh,

1255
00:54:23,680 --> 00:54:25,719
Speaker 5: you know, I would expect him to probably struggle as well.

1256
00:54:25,760 --> 00:54:28,680
Speaker 5: We'll see if Chris Thompson and Jamison Cryer are back,

1257
00:54:28,760 --> 00:54:31,960
Speaker 5: I would guess not, But as usual, opens it up

1258
00:54:32,000 --> 00:54:34,640
Speaker 5: for the for these kind of underneath pass catchers on Washington.

1259
00:54:34,680 --> 00:54:37,279
Speaker 5: Because McCoy not not that different from Alex Smith, not

1260
00:54:37,280 --> 00:54:39,920
Speaker 5: not really a big arm guy. Career average up the

1261
00:54:39,960 --> 00:54:42,520
Speaker 5: target seven point three, so not really throwing downfield a ton.

1262
00:54:42,560 --> 00:54:43,799
Speaker 1: I would just I would just kind of expect more

1263
00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:44,200
Speaker 1: of the same.

1264
00:54:44,840 --> 00:54:46,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, a lot of good points there.

1265
00:54:46,719 --> 00:54:50,040
Speaker 3: After Alex Smith went down, Josh Dkson led the way

1266
00:54:50,080 --> 00:54:53,399
Speaker 3: with five targets. Jordan Reid had three, Trey Quinn had two,

1267
00:54:53,520 --> 00:54:55,200
Speaker 3: nobody else had more than one.

1268
00:54:55,280 --> 00:54:57,040
Speaker 2: But like you said, I mean Byron Jones.

1269
00:54:57,120 --> 00:54:59,960
Speaker 3: I believe going this week he was PFS number five cornerback.

1270
00:55:00,280 --> 00:55:02,400
Speaker 3: If you watched the Falcons Cowboys game, you saw how

1271
00:55:02,480 --> 00:55:04,160
Speaker 3: much success the Falcons had just.

1272
00:55:04,320 --> 00:55:06,640
Speaker 2: Simply moving Julio away from Byron Jones.

1273
00:55:06,680 --> 00:55:10,840
Speaker 3: But I mean, Dockson isn't quite the same caliber receivers obviously,

1274
00:55:10,920 --> 00:55:13,239
Speaker 3: so I think Chudobi O Woozier will be able to

1275
00:55:13,640 --> 00:55:14,120
Speaker 3: stand up.

1276
00:55:14,080 --> 00:55:15,680
Speaker 2: To that battle a little bit better.

1277
00:55:16,000 --> 00:55:18,080
Speaker 3: First thing I looked at it was Cold McCoy's average

1278
00:55:18,080 --> 00:55:20,719
Speaker 3: death of target from twenty fourteen, because I knew the

1279
00:55:20,800 --> 00:55:23,480
Speaker 3: narrative would be okay. Now the Redskins don't have this,

1280
00:55:23,840 --> 00:55:26,800
Speaker 3: you know, check down game manager quarterback. But yeah, I

1281
00:55:26,800 --> 00:55:28,520
Speaker 3: mean I think it was at like seven point three

1282
00:55:28,560 --> 00:55:30,560
Speaker 3: and Alex Smith's like at eight point.

1283
00:55:30,320 --> 00:55:32,520
Speaker 2: Four yards average target theft this year.

1284
00:55:32,560 --> 00:55:35,440
Speaker 3: So I'm not sure it's necessarily going to be a

1285
00:55:35,480 --> 00:55:38,040
Speaker 3: major change in offense and suddenly the Redskins will have

1286
00:55:38,080 --> 00:55:40,359
Speaker 3: this downfield passing attack. I'm not even sure if they

1287
00:55:40,360 --> 00:55:42,239
Speaker 3: have the offensive line to do that if they wanted to.

1288
00:55:42,280 --> 00:55:44,279
Speaker 3: I mean, when they played the Cowboys, last That was

1289
00:55:44,280 --> 00:55:46,800
Speaker 3: when they had their starting left tackle, their starting left guard,

1290
00:55:46,840 --> 00:55:49,960
Speaker 3: and their starting right guard. They've all been lost since then.

1291
00:55:50,120 --> 00:55:52,360
Speaker 3: But I guess the only other part of the Redskins

1292
00:55:52,400 --> 00:55:55,680
Speaker 3: offense I want to touch on is this running back situation. Yeah,

1293
00:55:55,719 --> 00:55:57,800
Speaker 3: I'm with you. I don't think Chris Thompson's any closer

1294
00:55:57,840 --> 00:56:00,439
Speaker 3: to coming back than this RIBS injury. If he stayed out,

1295
00:56:00,760 --> 00:56:03,319
Speaker 3: we have Adrian Peterson locked in as the kind of

1296
00:56:03,360 --> 00:56:06,320
Speaker 3: alpha RB one, still a little bit game flow dependent.

1297
00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:09,480
Speaker 3: The problem is Capri Bibs isn't even the number one

1298
00:56:09,600 --> 00:56:12,799
Speaker 3: kind of complimentary guy anymore. Byron Marshall out snapped him

1299
00:56:12,840 --> 00:56:15,920
Speaker 3: seventeen to sixteen today, So I mean it's a one

1300
00:56:15,960 --> 00:56:17,600
Speaker 3: game slate, so we got to look at this. But

1301
00:56:17,680 --> 00:56:19,839
Speaker 3: I mean, what are your thoughts on this backfield kind

1302
00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:22,279
Speaker 3: of knowing it's not ideal game flow for AP and

1303
00:56:22,280 --> 00:56:23,880
Speaker 3: then we have uncertainty behind him.

1304
00:56:24,360 --> 00:56:26,920
Speaker 5: You know the fact that Marshall was just activating you know,

1305
00:56:27,120 --> 00:56:29,920
Speaker 5: samaj p Ryan had been serving as that really the

1306
00:56:30,000 --> 00:56:32,839
Speaker 5: number four back, but mostly the number three back because

1307
00:56:32,880 --> 00:56:35,719
Speaker 5: Chris Thompson hasn't played in a while, and so the

1308
00:56:35,760 --> 00:56:38,040
Speaker 5: fact that you know, with p Ran out, they activated

1309
00:56:38,080 --> 00:56:40,879
Speaker 5: Marshall and put him right in the fire. Equal snap

1310
00:56:41,000 --> 00:56:43,279
Speaker 5: rate two kapri Bibs kind of makes me think that

1311
00:56:43,880 --> 00:56:46,279
Speaker 5: they favor him a bit because, you know, I from

1312
00:56:46,320 --> 00:56:49,360
Speaker 5: just watching Bibbs, you know, he makes plays. He seems

1313
00:56:49,400 --> 00:56:50,919
Speaker 5: like a guy that you would want to get more

1314
00:56:51,680 --> 00:56:53,640
Speaker 5: more touches too. He seems like he's always making a

1315
00:56:53,680 --> 00:56:56,200
Speaker 5: play when he does touch the ball. But for whatever reason,

1316
00:56:56,800 --> 00:56:59,279
Speaker 5: they haven't really been giving him touches, even with Chris

1317
00:56:59,280 --> 00:57:02,080
Speaker 5: Thompson out. I don't know if that was a function

1318
00:57:02,160 --> 00:57:04,520
Speaker 5: more so of Alex Smith, but the fact that Marshall

1319
00:57:04,560 --> 00:57:07,319
Speaker 5: came in here and kind of equaled his snaps right

1320
00:57:07,360 --> 00:57:10,080
Speaker 5: off the bat makes me think that Marshall is probably

1321
00:57:10,080 --> 00:57:12,280
Speaker 5: the guy we want to look at first.

1322
00:57:12,400 --> 00:57:15,480
Speaker 1: Is that dark throw played before pretty Bibs?

1323
00:57:15,719 --> 00:57:16,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'm with you there, man.

1324
00:57:17,040 --> 00:57:19,320
Speaker 3: I mean, I just don't know if Bibbs really I's

1325
00:57:19,360 --> 00:57:22,000
Speaker 3: that coaching staffs trust if they're gonna put Marshall ahead

1326
00:57:22,000 --> 00:57:24,600
Speaker 3: of him first week back all right, swinging over the

1327
00:57:24,640 --> 00:57:27,240
Speaker 3: Cowboys side of the ball, We'll look at the run

1328
00:57:27,320 --> 00:57:29,320
Speaker 3: game first. I mean, obviously they're trying to get Zeke

1329
00:57:29,320 --> 00:57:32,600
Speaker 3: involved any week they can. Zeke's had some nice career

1330
00:57:32,720 --> 00:57:36,400
Speaker 3: success against Washington. He's on eighty seven total yards and

1331
00:57:36,440 --> 00:57:38,560
Speaker 3: a touchdown, one hundred and twenty total yards and two

1332
00:57:38,600 --> 00:57:40,920
Speaker 3: toudies one hundred and fifty four and two toudies. But

1333
00:57:40,920 --> 00:57:43,720
Speaker 3: then this year in his first matchup, had forty two

1334
00:57:43,800 --> 00:57:48,720
Speaker 3: scoreless yards on seventeen touches. So Redskins were popping in

1335
00:57:48,760 --> 00:57:50,920
Speaker 3: a lot of my matchup articles early on in the

1336
00:57:51,000 --> 00:57:54,080
Speaker 3: year because their d line still ranks really bad and

1337
00:57:54,440 --> 00:57:57,520
Speaker 3: justin lanyards allowed for rush they're twenty ninth. But I've

1338
00:57:57,560 --> 00:57:59,840
Speaker 3: come to kind of realize I couldn't figure out why Zeke,

1339
00:58:00,200 --> 00:58:02,880
Speaker 3: Christian McCaffrey, why these running backs just could not run

1340
00:58:02,880 --> 00:58:05,280
Speaker 3: the ball on Washington, And I think it's just because

1341
00:58:05,600 --> 00:58:08,320
Speaker 3: they're super sound tackling kind of at the second level.

1342
00:58:08,640 --> 00:58:12,480
Speaker 3: Zach Brown is PFS number four overall linebacker, DJ sweringers

1343
00:58:12,520 --> 00:58:16,160
Speaker 3: their number three safety haha, Clinton Dix the number four safety.

1344
00:58:16,240 --> 00:58:18,960
Speaker 3: I mean, that's three top five players in the second

1345
00:58:18,960 --> 00:58:22,120
Speaker 3: line of their defense that are clearly pretty strong tacklers.

1346
00:58:22,600 --> 00:58:25,080
Speaker 3: With that said, we have seen Zeke and the Cowboys

1347
00:58:25,160 --> 00:58:27,640
Speaker 3: kind of go to its second level, especially in the

1348
00:58:27,760 --> 00:58:30,040
Speaker 3: last two weeks, you know, include the Titans even after

1349
00:58:30,080 --> 00:58:31,760
Speaker 3: the bye What do you think you're at home?

1350
00:58:31,800 --> 00:58:33,080
Speaker 2: I mean, do you think Zeke's just going to have

1351
00:58:33,160 --> 00:58:35,320
Speaker 2: his way here? Can Washington kind of stand up to

1352
00:58:35,720 --> 00:58:38,200
Speaker 2: this Cowboys O line and power running game?

1353
00:58:38,600 --> 00:58:40,600
Speaker 5: I think you'll seez kind of get right in this one.

1354
00:58:41,040 --> 00:58:43,240
Speaker 5: You know that that seems like more of a blip

1355
00:58:43,240 --> 00:58:46,040
Speaker 5: on the radar. I think Washington, as you mentioned, is,

1356
00:58:46,160 --> 00:58:48,880
Speaker 5: you know, is better than some of their numbers show

1357
00:58:48,920 --> 00:58:51,000
Speaker 5: on defense in certain places.

1358
00:58:51,000 --> 00:58:53,360
Speaker 1: But you know, they they've they've been a little bit.

1359
00:58:53,720 --> 00:58:54,880
Speaker 1: You know, they're definitely exploitable.

1360
00:58:54,880 --> 00:58:56,200
Speaker 5: I mean, we saw Tampa Bay put up all the

1361
00:58:56,280 --> 00:58:59,720
Speaker 5: yards on them the week before. You know, Lamar Miller

1362
00:58:59,840 --> 00:59:03,880
Speaker 5: and Alfred Blue had pretty solid games today, Miller twenty

1363
00:59:03,880 --> 00:59:06,920
Speaker 5: for eighty six, Blue eight for forty six. They kind

1364
00:59:06,920 --> 00:59:09,479
Speaker 5: of limited Miller in the passing game. He cut three

1365
00:59:09,520 --> 00:59:13,240
Speaker 5: balls for twenty two yards on five targets, but they

1366
00:59:13,280 --> 00:59:14,200
Speaker 5: did give up the eight for.

1367
00:59:14,120 --> 00:59:16,240
Speaker 1: One or two to ja Quiz Rogers the week before.

1368
00:59:16,640 --> 00:59:20,360
Speaker 5: So we have a three game sample now of what

1369
00:59:20,400 --> 00:59:24,200
Speaker 5: the Cowboys offense looks like with Amari Cooper as the

1370
00:59:24,640 --> 00:59:27,240
Speaker 5: number one Alpha Dog receiver here, and so he's at

1371
00:59:27,280 --> 00:59:30,919
Speaker 5: twenty three percent target share Ezekiel Elliott is number two

1372
00:59:31,080 --> 00:59:34,080
Speaker 5: at twenty percent, and I mean, obviously you play the Falcons,

1373
00:59:34,080 --> 00:59:37,320
Speaker 5: that's probably inflated a bit, so maybe that'll come down

1374
00:59:37,360 --> 00:59:39,480
Speaker 5: to more than like that fifteen percent or so range,

1375
00:59:39,520 --> 00:59:43,120
Speaker 5: But still notable that he's the second most targeted receiver

1376
00:59:43,240 --> 00:59:46,160
Speaker 5: pass catcher after Cooper. Then you have Cole Beasley at

1377
00:59:46,160 --> 00:59:49,360
Speaker 5: sixteen percent. He was closer to nineteen twenty percent before

1378
00:59:49,400 --> 00:59:53,640
Speaker 5: Cooper arrived. Michael Gallup at fourteen percent as well, And

1379
00:59:53,680 --> 00:59:56,840
Speaker 5: I think the interesting one here again is Gallup because

1380
00:59:57,440 --> 00:59:59,480
Speaker 5: he actually got a forty nine percent are yard share

1381
00:59:59,480 --> 01:00:02,280
Speaker 5: today only one of five targets, so it doesn't really

1382
01:00:02,280 --> 01:00:04,360
Speaker 5: show up in the statue, but he's a guy that

1383
01:00:04,400 --> 01:00:06,720
Speaker 5: you can kind of buy lo on, and especially in

1384
01:00:06,720 --> 01:00:09,120
Speaker 5: a tournament, I think he's a guy that you still

1385
01:00:09,320 --> 01:00:11,160
Speaker 5: want to go back to because everyone's going to be

1386
01:00:11,240 --> 01:00:13,640
Speaker 5: focused on on the other two guys, or even or

1387
01:00:13,680 --> 01:00:16,000
Speaker 5: even Beasley, who you know, is a guy that can

1388
01:00:16,080 --> 01:00:18,520
Speaker 5: pop up with a lot of catches. But you know,

1389
01:00:18,680 --> 01:00:20,800
Speaker 5: in a tournament, you always prefer the air yards if

1390
01:00:20,840 --> 01:00:22,640
Speaker 5: you can get them, because then you only need one

1391
01:00:22,720 --> 01:00:24,320
Speaker 5: or two plays to kind of make a difference.

1392
01:00:24,440 --> 01:00:26,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, from a cornerback perspective.

1393
01:00:25,960 --> 01:00:27,480
Speaker 3: We'll want to keep an eye on the status of

1394
01:00:27,520 --> 01:00:30,520
Speaker 3: a Quentin Dunbar of the Redskins number two guy. He's

1395
01:00:30,560 --> 01:00:32,080
Speaker 3: been dealing with the leg injury, been out for the

1396
01:00:32,160 --> 01:00:35,080
Speaker 3: last few weeks. Because of that, Josh Norman has been

1397
01:00:35,560 --> 01:00:39,720
Speaker 3: traveling with and shadowing the opponent's number one receiver, which

1398
01:00:39,720 --> 01:00:42,360
Speaker 3: would be obviously Amari Cooper this week. With that said,

1399
01:00:42,400 --> 01:00:44,560
Speaker 3: the Redskins do on a whole lot of zones, so

1400
01:00:44,760 --> 01:00:48,040
Speaker 3: their version of shadow coverage isn't quite the same man

1401
01:00:48,080 --> 01:00:50,320
Speaker 3: on man run across the entire field with you that

1402
01:00:50,360 --> 01:00:53,040
Speaker 3: you might think otherwise, So won't be as big of

1403
01:00:53,040 --> 01:00:54,480
Speaker 3: a downgrade as you might think.

1404
01:00:54,960 --> 01:00:56,640
Speaker 2: All right, last and final game.

1405
01:00:56,920 --> 01:00:58,760
Speaker 3: Oh man, I was laughing when I found out who

1406
01:00:58,760 --> 01:01:01,280
Speaker 3: the Saints were playing in a week twelve after watching

1407
01:01:01,320 --> 01:01:03,760
Speaker 3: them run up all these points the last three weeks.

1408
01:01:03,760 --> 01:01:07,520
Speaker 3: But we have the Falcons as the next defense willing

1409
01:01:07,600 --> 01:01:11,200
Speaker 3: to sacrifice themselves to New Orleans Saints. Saints opened up

1410
01:01:11,240 --> 01:01:14,640
Speaker 3: as fourteen and a half point favorites at home. That's

1411
01:01:14,680 --> 01:01:17,720
Speaker 3: been bet down to minus twelve and a half. Chris,

1412
01:01:17,760 --> 01:01:20,160
Speaker 3: I mean, Saints are kind of at their highest point

1413
01:01:20,200 --> 01:01:23,120
Speaker 3: in this season. Falcons seem to be at their lowest.

1414
01:01:23,320 --> 01:01:26,120
Speaker 3: Are you accepting that the Saints are great and the

1415
01:01:26,120 --> 01:01:27,920
Speaker 3: Falcons suck? Or do you think this is maybe a

1416
01:01:27,960 --> 01:01:30,320
Speaker 3: week where we kind of find out maybe we don't

1417
01:01:30,320 --> 01:01:31,280
Speaker 3: know as much as we think we know.

1418
01:01:31,720 --> 01:01:34,720
Speaker 1: It's getting harder and harder to say that.

1419
01:01:35,400 --> 01:01:37,840
Speaker 5: You know, the Saints shouldn't be getting these these huge

1420
01:01:38,480 --> 01:01:42,680
Speaker 5: spreads because they're covering them. They're they're blowing people out.

1421
01:01:43,160 --> 01:01:44,720
Speaker 5: You know, that's the mark of a good team when

1422
01:01:44,760 --> 01:01:47,240
Speaker 5: you start, when you start blowing people out, it's actually

1423
01:01:47,320 --> 01:01:49,320
Speaker 5: not you know, one score game records a lot of

1424
01:01:49,400 --> 01:01:52,320
Speaker 5: variants in that. You know, that usually ends up at

1425
01:01:52,400 --> 01:01:54,640
Speaker 5: five hundred over the long term. So the mark of

1426
01:01:54,680 --> 01:01:57,240
Speaker 5: a good team is that point. Differentially, it's beating it's

1427
01:01:57,280 --> 01:01:59,880
Speaker 5: beating up on teams and blowing teams out, and we're

1428
01:02:00,040 --> 01:02:02,160
Speaker 5: dying to see the Saints do that. I mean, I

1429
01:02:02,200 --> 01:02:04,360
Speaker 5: think it was impressive even that they beat the Rams

1430
01:02:04,400 --> 01:02:05,240
Speaker 5: by double digits.

1431
01:02:05,280 --> 01:02:07,720
Speaker 1: So I'm not going to sit here, and you know.

1432
01:02:07,920 --> 01:02:09,880
Speaker 5: I probably I'm not bet I don't think I'm betting

1433
01:02:10,920 --> 01:02:13,760
Speaker 5: on the Saints at that number. I don't think I'm

1434
01:02:13,800 --> 01:02:16,720
Speaker 5: betting against the Saints at that number. I think I

1435
01:02:16,720 --> 01:02:19,120
Speaker 5: think that we just have to kind of continue to

1436
01:02:19,160 --> 01:02:20,720
Speaker 5: expect more of the same. And we know that this

1437
01:02:20,720 --> 01:02:22,680
Speaker 5: this Falcons defense is when that's going to give up

1438
01:02:22,720 --> 01:02:25,240
Speaker 5: a lot of plays to running backs in the passing game.

1439
01:02:25,320 --> 01:02:28,240
Speaker 5: So of course that puts Alvin Kamara and you know

1440
01:02:28,280 --> 01:02:30,920
Speaker 5: in a smash spot of course, and mark ingram in

1441
01:02:31,000 --> 01:02:32,919
Speaker 5: a smash spot essentially as well.

1442
01:02:32,960 --> 01:02:35,800
Speaker 1: Because the Saints, because.

1443
01:02:35,360 --> 01:02:37,880
Speaker 5: They're really there, they're a lot thinner at what like

1444
01:02:38,000 --> 01:02:39,919
Speaker 5: pass catcher than you would think for a team that's

1445
01:02:40,000 --> 01:02:43,280
Speaker 5: so dominant. I mean, they have Michael Thomas and now

1446
01:02:43,280 --> 01:02:46,320
Speaker 5: they have treycon Smith's who kind of emerged really really

1447
01:02:46,360 --> 01:02:48,479
Speaker 5: broke out today. I know he had the other multi

1448
01:02:48,520 --> 01:02:50,080
Speaker 5: I think he had a multi touchdown game earlier in

1449
01:02:50,080 --> 01:02:52,680
Speaker 5: the year, but I would say like this this game now,

1450
01:02:52,680 --> 01:02:55,920
Speaker 5: I think he caught ten balls in this one, and you.

1451
01:02:55,880 --> 01:02:56,640
Speaker 1: Know that's really it.

1452
01:02:56,720 --> 01:02:59,200
Speaker 5: And they got the running backs and so I think

1453
01:02:59,200 --> 01:03:02,680
Speaker 5: you're going to continue to see that concentrated target share

1454
01:03:02,720 --> 01:03:04,439
Speaker 5: in this one as well. Where it's gonna be Thomas,

1455
01:03:04,480 --> 01:03:05,760
Speaker 5: it's going to be Smith, and it's going to be

1456
01:03:05,760 --> 01:03:08,760
Speaker 5: the two backs. And I mean, I'm guessing Brandon Marshall

1457
01:03:08,760 --> 01:03:11,080
Speaker 5: will be active. I don't expect to see him play

1458
01:03:11,080 --> 01:03:13,080
Speaker 5: a huge role. I think they just like to have

1459
01:03:13,120 --> 01:03:15,880
Speaker 5: another guy in the red zone inside the ten yard

1460
01:03:15,880 --> 01:03:19,240
Speaker 5: line all that that they can use, because it's been

1461
01:03:19,360 --> 01:03:23,280
Speaker 5: really just Michael Thomas has been at thirty four percent

1462
01:03:23,320 --> 01:03:26,800
Speaker 5: of their targets inside the ten and then Watson and

1463
01:03:26,840 --> 01:03:29,080
Speaker 5: Kamara right under twenty percent, and no one else is

1464
01:03:29,120 --> 01:03:31,439
Speaker 5: really they don't really have any other go to guys

1465
01:03:31,480 --> 01:03:33,000
Speaker 5: in there, so I think they just kind of looking

1466
01:03:33,040 --> 01:03:35,880
Speaker 5: for one more big body guy that Drew Brees can

1467
01:03:37,120 --> 01:03:39,439
Speaker 5: can maybe get isolated in single covers.

1468
01:03:39,080 --> 01:03:41,040
Speaker 1: And throw a little jump ball to every once in

1469
01:03:41,080 --> 01:03:41,360
Speaker 1: a while.

1470
01:03:41,440 --> 01:03:43,640
Speaker 5: But I think I would think Trey Kwon will continue

1471
01:03:43,640 --> 01:03:47,400
Speaker 5: to operate as the as the clear cut number two receiver.

1472
01:03:47,560 --> 01:03:49,480
Speaker 5: I think I think you're still gonna see guys like

1473
01:03:49,760 --> 01:03:53,560
Speaker 5: Keith Kirkwood and Austin Carr mixed in as well in

1474
01:03:53,600 --> 01:03:55,600
Speaker 5: the slot because it's not like Brandon Marsha's playing the

1475
01:03:55,640 --> 01:03:56,960
Speaker 5: slot either.

1476
01:03:56,840 --> 01:03:58,120
Speaker 2: So just a tight end of them.

1477
01:03:58,800 --> 01:03:59,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't.

1478
01:03:59,560 --> 01:04:02,080
Speaker 5: I mean, because you know what's interesting they've been. You know,

1479
01:04:02,240 --> 01:04:05,320
Speaker 5: I don't know what his snap count was today, but

1480
01:04:05,920 --> 01:04:07,960
Speaker 5: he was an active say he was, no, No, not him,

1481
01:04:09,040 --> 01:04:10,600
Speaker 5: Ben Watson, because.

1482
01:04:10,800 --> 01:04:11,760
Speaker 2: He's been going down.

1483
01:04:11,840 --> 01:04:14,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, his snaps have been going down over the past

1484
01:04:14,600 --> 01:04:17,920
Speaker 5: few weeks, and they've they've been incorporating a little more

1485
01:04:18,160 --> 01:04:22,200
Speaker 5: Daniel Arnold Josh No more of a blocking type, but

1486
01:04:22,240 --> 01:04:25,200
Speaker 5: he's been on the field a lot too, and so

1487
01:04:25,360 --> 01:04:28,120
Speaker 5: I wonder if they're kind of, you know, looking for maybe, yeah, again,

1488
01:04:28,160 --> 01:04:31,560
Speaker 5: somebody just replaced that role, you know, that Watson role

1489
01:04:31,680 --> 01:04:34,200
Speaker 5: as the season progresses, because you know, Watson is up

1490
01:04:34,240 --> 01:04:36,520
Speaker 5: there in age, you know, nearing forty, and you know,

1491
01:04:36,560 --> 01:04:38,800
Speaker 5: maybe it's just the season's kind of wearing on him,

1492
01:04:38,840 --> 01:04:40,680
Speaker 5: or they're saving him for the playoffs, who knows, But

1493
01:04:41,040 --> 01:04:44,080
Speaker 5: definitely have seen a decrease with him. And I think

1494
01:04:44,080 --> 01:04:46,080
Speaker 5: the you know, tight end position is a position or

1495
01:04:46,240 --> 01:04:48,840
Speaker 5: you know, anytime you're talking about anything underneath with this

1496
01:04:48,880 --> 01:04:51,400
Speaker 5: Falcons defense, I think you have to look at those guys.

1497
01:04:51,440 --> 01:04:52,880
Speaker 1: So if we get word.

1498
01:04:52,720 --> 01:04:55,440
Speaker 5: That Marshall's active, I think he's definitely a threat to

1499
01:04:55,440 --> 01:04:57,520
Speaker 5: to catch a touchdown, but I wouldn't expect high volume.

1500
01:04:57,880 --> 01:04:59,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely could be similar to I think what we've seen.

1501
01:05:00,000 --> 01:05:03,000
Speaker 3: I mean, honestly, kind of like Jimmy Graham over the

1502
01:05:03,040 --> 01:05:05,840
Speaker 3: last few years, different position kind of stuff, but definitely

1503
01:05:05,840 --> 01:05:08,920
Speaker 3: gonna be a limited ceiling. There a few points you

1504
01:05:08,960 --> 01:05:12,000
Speaker 3: mentioned them in this Falcons defense, good god running backs

1505
01:05:12,000 --> 01:05:14,600
Speaker 3: against them, every single starter has scored at least twenty

1506
01:05:14,640 --> 01:05:18,240
Speaker 3: DraftKings points except Adrian Peterson. His game flow got away

1507
01:05:18,240 --> 01:05:22,080
Speaker 3: from there. Dion Jones there stud middle linebacker. He has

1508
01:05:22,120 --> 01:05:25,440
Speaker 3: PFF's highest grade among all linebackers this year, regardless of

1509
01:05:25,840 --> 01:05:29,000
Speaker 3: snap count. He was activated from the injury reserve this week,

1510
01:05:29,160 --> 01:05:31,520
Speaker 3: did not end up playing, so keep an eye out

1511
01:05:31,520 --> 01:05:33,480
Speaker 3: if he's able to get active for Thursday.

1512
01:05:33,880 --> 01:05:34,320
Speaker 2: Either way.

1513
01:05:34,400 --> 01:05:36,000
Speaker 3: I mean, Chris and I have talked on this pot

1514
01:05:36,040 --> 01:05:39,880
Speaker 3: all year. The Falcons as they should allow offenses to

1515
01:05:39,960 --> 01:05:41,880
Speaker 3: check down versus throw the ball over their head. I

1516
01:05:41,880 --> 01:05:44,440
Speaker 3: mean they allowed the most receptions to running backs the

1517
01:05:44,480 --> 01:05:47,840
Speaker 3: last three years, with or without Jones, so won't necessarily

1518
01:05:47,880 --> 01:05:50,760
Speaker 3: be a massive difference maker. The last as just want

1519
01:05:50,800 --> 01:05:53,840
Speaker 3: to touch on was once the Saints added Eli Apple,

1520
01:05:53,920 --> 01:05:57,360
Speaker 3: we saw Marshaun Lattimore stop shadowing. I think it turns

1521
01:05:57,400 --> 01:06:00,640
Speaker 3: out it was just because those matchups didn't quite require

1522
01:06:01,000 --> 01:06:03,520
Speaker 3: him to travel with the opponents number one. Today, we

1523
01:06:03,560 --> 01:06:06,200
Speaker 3: did see Marshawn move across the field with al Seon

1524
01:06:06,280 --> 01:06:08,720
Speaker 3: Jeffery and really take him out of the game for

1525
01:06:08,760 --> 01:06:12,280
Speaker 3: the first time since they got Eli Apple in their

1526
01:06:12,320 --> 01:06:16,280
Speaker 3: first matchup this year. Obviously, Marshawn was locking up Julio

1527
01:06:16,400 --> 01:06:19,000
Speaker 3: pretty well for the first half as Calvin Ridley found

1528
01:06:19,000 --> 01:06:21,920
Speaker 3: the end zone three times, and they actually switched Marshawn

1529
01:06:22,000 --> 01:06:24,560
Speaker 3: onto Ridley at one point try to slow him down.

1530
01:06:24,800 --> 01:06:27,920
Speaker 3: We've seen Julio completely ball out since his touchdown drought

1531
01:06:27,920 --> 01:06:30,280
Speaker 3: from how He's gone one hundred and twenty one yards

1532
01:06:30,280 --> 01:06:32,400
Speaker 3: in a touchdown, one hundred and seven yards in the touchdown,

1533
01:06:32,480 --> 01:06:35,160
Speaker 3: one hundred and eighteen yards and a touchdown today. Christy,

1534
01:06:35,280 --> 01:06:38,200
Speaker 3: do you think Marshawn Lattimore can limit Julio here and

1535
01:06:38,320 --> 01:06:40,160
Speaker 3: kind of what are your thoughts on him in this game.

1536
01:06:40,520 --> 01:06:43,400
Speaker 5: I think they might, you know, after what happened last

1537
01:06:43,440 --> 01:06:46,240
Speaker 5: I mean, they might actually want to have Latimore on

1538
01:06:46,320 --> 01:06:49,160
Speaker 5: Ridley because it might make a little more sense from

1539
01:06:49,680 --> 01:06:52,800
Speaker 5: just a physical standpoint. I think I think Latimore is

1540
01:06:52,840 --> 01:06:54,240
Speaker 5: better able to kind of deal with the kind of

1541
01:06:54,280 --> 01:06:57,560
Speaker 5: receiver Ridley is than Eli Apple might be. So I

1542
01:06:57,600 --> 01:07:00,400
Speaker 5: mean you could just see them do, like try to

1543
01:07:00,600 --> 01:07:04,640
Speaker 5: use Latimore to contain Ridley and then you know, put

1544
01:07:04,720 --> 01:07:06,600
Speaker 5: multiple guys and you know, try to double.

1545
01:07:06,360 --> 01:07:09,360
Speaker 1: Triple Julio or whatnot. But this defense has been better.

1546
01:07:09,560 --> 01:07:12,560
Speaker 5: I was really surprised that they were able to play

1547
01:07:12,560 --> 01:07:14,160
Speaker 5: as well as they did against the Eagles, even though

1548
01:07:14,160 --> 01:07:16,200
Speaker 5: they were at the big home favorite. I just the

1549
01:07:16,240 --> 01:07:18,400
Speaker 5: Eagles have been, you know, passing the ball pretty well

1550
01:07:18,880 --> 01:07:20,000
Speaker 5: over these last few games.

1551
01:07:20,040 --> 01:07:21,960
Speaker 1: But the one thing you did see is that.

1552
01:07:21,920 --> 01:07:25,000
Speaker 5: The Saints their number thirty one and number or number

1553
01:07:25,000 --> 01:07:29,479
Speaker 5: thirty two in dvoa to number one wide receivers, number

1554
01:07:29,520 --> 01:07:32,200
Speaker 5: two wide receivers in running backs, but their top.

1555
01:07:32,080 --> 01:07:33,920
Speaker 1: Five against tight ends. But PJ.

1556
01:07:34,040 --> 01:07:36,840
Speaker 5: Williams, like I think they're they're kind of turning that

1557
01:07:36,880 --> 01:07:38,280
Speaker 5: around a little bit, as you mentioned.

1558
01:07:38,360 --> 01:07:38,800
Speaker 1: But PJ.

1559
01:07:38,880 --> 01:07:42,560
Speaker 5: Williams has a coverage grade that ranks one hundred and

1560
01:07:42,640 --> 01:07:45,600
Speaker 5: twelve one corners from PFF.

1561
01:07:45,920 --> 01:07:47,920
Speaker 1: Who knows how long they're going to continue to throw

1562
01:07:48,000 --> 01:07:48,440
Speaker 1: him out there.

1563
01:07:48,440 --> 01:07:50,280
Speaker 5: But again I didn't I'm not I don't have the

1564
01:07:50,280 --> 01:07:52,240
Speaker 5: snap date in front of me from today, but you

1565
01:07:52,360 --> 01:07:55,840
Speaker 5: kind of saw a similar target distribution play out even

1566
01:07:55,880 --> 01:08:00,360
Speaker 5: with Philly today where let Golden Tate get eight targets

1567
01:08:00,360 --> 01:08:03,200
Speaker 5: and lead the team, and you know that was you know,

1568
01:08:03,480 --> 01:08:05,960
Speaker 5: Jeffrey and Ertz only had eight targets combined, and you

1569
01:08:06,040 --> 01:08:08,840
Speaker 5: also saw the running backs Josh Adams and Corey Koment

1570
01:08:08,960 --> 01:08:11,760
Speaker 5: combined for eight targets as well. So you are seeing

1571
01:08:11,760 --> 01:08:13,959
Speaker 5: the Saint kind of funnel the ball in the pass

1572
01:08:14,040 --> 01:08:17,720
Speaker 5: game into certain spots. And I would think that, you know,

1573
01:08:17,800 --> 01:08:19,200
Speaker 5: in this spot, you know, it might be a good

1574
01:08:19,240 --> 01:08:22,479
Speaker 5: spot for a guy like Mohammed Sanu, who you know

1575
01:08:22,560 --> 01:08:24,599
Speaker 5: will probably end up running a lot of his routes

1576
01:08:24,920 --> 01:08:28,639
Speaker 5: inside against whatever slot corner you know they're they're putting

1577
01:08:28,680 --> 01:08:29,080
Speaker 5: out there.

1578
01:08:29,400 --> 01:08:31,720
Speaker 1: And then obviously, you know Tevin.

1579
01:08:31,400 --> 01:08:33,760
Speaker 5: Coleman out of the backs in the past game as well,

1580
01:08:33,800 --> 01:08:36,200
Speaker 5: you know, he's he's always historically been a pretty good

1581
01:08:36,200 --> 01:08:39,920
Speaker 5: pass catcher. His yards per reception tends to be pretty high.

1582
01:08:40,000 --> 01:08:43,080
Speaker 5: So I think that you could see a little more

1583
01:08:43,080 --> 01:08:43,840
Speaker 5: of that out of.

1584
01:08:43,880 --> 01:08:45,479
Speaker 1: Atlanta in this in this spot as well.

1585
01:08:45,520 --> 01:08:47,000
Speaker 5: As you know, I know everyone's going to kind of

1586
01:08:47,000 --> 01:08:49,160
Speaker 5: be fixated on Julio and he'll probably get his no

1587
01:08:49,240 --> 01:08:52,080
Speaker 5: matter what. But I think, you know, the New and

1588
01:08:52,160 --> 01:08:53,960
Speaker 5: Coleman will be factors in this game as well.

1589
01:08:54,280 --> 01:08:55,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, good point there on Coleman.

1590
01:08:55,880 --> 01:08:59,160
Speaker 3: Since the Falcons week A bye, Tevians had at least

1591
01:08:59,200 --> 01:09:02,800
Speaker 3: three catches and all three games only had two such

1592
01:09:02,840 --> 01:09:05,120
Speaker 3: games in weeks one through seven, so it could be

1593
01:09:05,120 --> 01:09:07,120
Speaker 3: a little noisy, but it would make sense if the

1594
01:09:07,160 --> 01:09:10,759
Speaker 3: Falcons do get him more involved as a receiver, especially

1595
01:09:10,760 --> 01:09:13,360
Speaker 3: with some new kind of continually banged up with this

1596
01:09:13,400 --> 01:09:15,519
Speaker 3: little hip thing. But we expect him to still be

1597
01:09:15,560 --> 01:09:18,479
Speaker 3: out there. All right, everyone, thank you for tuning in.

1598
01:09:18,520 --> 01:09:21,160
Speaker 3: We're going to wrap up here with our weekly that

1599
01:09:21,680 --> 01:09:23,400
Speaker 3: Chris Rams minus three.

1600
01:09:23,760 --> 01:09:26,040
Speaker 2: We got the over under at sixty three.

1601
01:09:26,600 --> 01:09:29,200
Speaker 1: I'm going with the I'm going with the Rams.

1602
01:09:29,439 --> 01:09:29,640
Speaker 2: You know.

1603
01:09:29,720 --> 01:09:32,120
Speaker 1: I think all this is like all the publics on

1604
01:09:32,200 --> 01:09:32,759
Speaker 1: the Chiefs.

1605
01:09:32,880 --> 01:09:35,800
Speaker 5: Everyone loves the Chiefs right now again, I think the

1606
01:09:35,880 --> 01:09:38,200
Speaker 5: Rams can get some pressure on Patrick Mahomes. I think

1607
01:09:38,240 --> 01:09:39,680
Speaker 5: the fact that they'll be at home gives him a

1608
01:09:39,720 --> 01:09:42,160
Speaker 5: little bit of an extra edge. I think that, you know,

1609
01:09:42,200 --> 01:09:44,559
Speaker 5: if Watkins, if he's not at a hundred, even if

1610
01:09:44,560 --> 01:09:46,559
Speaker 5: he plays, he's not at one hundred percent, I think

1611
01:09:46,560 --> 01:09:49,759
Speaker 5: that somewhat mitigates the Rams losing cup on the other side.

1612
01:09:49,880 --> 01:09:53,080
Speaker 5: And you know, I think they get it done in

1613
01:09:53,160 --> 01:09:55,920
Speaker 5: their building. So give me the Rams minus three.

1614
01:09:56,640 --> 01:10:01,400
Speaker 3: All right, with that, I will take the over. Thanks

1615
01:10:01,439 --> 01:10:06,240
Speaker 3: to Action Network friend analyst Mark Gallant, He's noted that

1616
01:10:06,320 --> 01:10:08,479
Speaker 3: there have been eleven games to close with a total

1617
01:10:08,479 --> 01:10:10,479
Speaker 3: of fifty seven and a half or higher over the

1618
01:10:10,479 --> 01:10:13,479
Speaker 3: past fifteen years. Every last one of them has gone

1619
01:10:13,520 --> 01:10:16,200
Speaker 3: over by an average of ten points. So I've been

1620
01:10:16,200 --> 01:10:18,680
Speaker 3: getting my butt kicked here against the spread. So I'm

1621
01:10:18,720 --> 01:10:21,960
Speaker 3: going back to the analytics, and I tell you here,

1622
01:10:22,640 --> 01:10:25,240
Speaker 3: I'll take the first player, which I mean, how could

1623
01:10:25,240 --> 01:10:28,120
Speaker 3: it not be, mister Todd Gurley, Man, who are you taking.

1624
01:10:29,760 --> 01:10:34,840
Speaker 5: So many choices? I am going to take. I gotta

1625
01:10:34,840 --> 01:10:38,360
Speaker 5: take Tatrick Mahomes. It's yeah, yeah, yeah, I'm gonna take

1626
01:10:38,400 --> 01:10:39,120
Speaker 5: Tatrick Mahomes.

1627
01:10:39,360 --> 01:10:39,960
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take it.

1628
01:10:40,000 --> 01:10:42,160
Speaker 5: I thought I was thinking about Kareem Hunt or Tyreek

1629
01:10:42,240 --> 01:10:44,160
Speaker 5: Hill because they have that similar kind of upside.

1630
01:10:44,160 --> 01:10:47,160
Speaker 1: But I mean, Mahomes is just so special that if the.

1631
01:10:47,200 --> 01:10:49,240
Speaker 5: Rams are winning, if the Rams end up winning the

1632
01:10:49,280 --> 01:10:51,799
Speaker 5: game like I think they will, I still think Mahomes

1633
01:10:51,800 --> 01:10:54,519
Speaker 5: will put big numbers because I don't think that did

1634
01:10:54,680 --> 01:10:58,559
Speaker 5: really such things as stopping him. So give me Patrick

1635
01:10:58,640 --> 01:11:01,240
Speaker 5: Mahomes in the shootout and we'll see what happens.

1636
01:11:01,760 --> 01:11:03,360
Speaker 3: I think I speak for everyone want to say I

1637
01:11:03,360 --> 01:11:06,479
Speaker 3: cannot wait to watch that one. Thank you everyone for

1638
01:11:06,520 --> 01:11:10,400
Speaker 3: tuning in. This has been the Action Network NFL podcast.

1639
01:11:11,000 --> 01:11:14,240
Speaker 3: Tune back in later this week for the Daily Fantasy Flex. Again,

1640
01:11:14,400 --> 01:11:17,440
Speaker 3: Chris will be featured on that that will be replacing

1641
01:11:17,520 --> 01:11:20,920
Speaker 3: the Friday show for your ultimate preview for Week twelve.

1642
01:11:21,080 --> 01:11:24,879
Speaker 2: Action Thank you for joining Chris, Tom, What's Up, Let's.

1643
01:11:24,640 --> 01:11:26,320
Speaker 1: Get this money, and Happy holidays.

1644
01:11:26,680 --> 01:11:27,439
Speaker 2: Happy holidays.

1645
01:11:32,600 --> 01:11:32,920
Speaker 1: Thanks