Speaker 1: The volume.
Speaker 2: This week on Prime Cuts, Chad Milman, Sharper Square, John
Speaker 2: Middlekoff on Lamar Jackson playing the best football of his
Speaker 2: career in my Top takes of the week. Okay, you
Speaker 2: know I'm from the Pacific Northwest, so this one feels special.
Speaker 2: My favorite team as a kid growing up was the
Speaker 2: Washington Huskies. They beat the Longhorns thirty seven to thirty one.
Speaker 2: I think I felt the entire game. I bet a
Speaker 2: money line on DraftKings today. I just kept saying Texas
Speaker 2: has better players, Texas has better players, and then over
Speaker 2: the last twenty four hours, I'm like, what am I doing.
Speaker 2: Washington's receivers and quarterback are a huge mismatch edge over
Speaker 2: the secondary for the Longhorns, and I like Sark. I
Speaker 2: love Calin de bor as a coach, and the time,
Speaker 2: I mean, their execution until the final minute of the
Speaker 2: game was the cleanest of the four teams that played
Speaker 2: in the playoff, and they have the fewest foreign five
Speaker 2: star recruits. So this staff develops and coaches. It's butt off.
Speaker 2: By the way, when you put in four really good
Speaker 2: football teams instead of three really good teams and one
Speaker 2: that's deserving whatever that means Florida State. This is what
Speaker 2: it looks like. That was the best day of college football,
Speaker 2: the best playoff day of college football in its history,
Speaker 2: because nobody got caught up on deserving. It was just
Speaker 2: four really good teams with big time quarterbacks and big
Speaker 2: time coaches, most important position healthy and ready to roll. Okay,
Speaker 2: Florida State would have dragged this entire thing down. So
Speaker 2: bigger argument is Georgia getting in. But let's not waste
Speaker 2: any time talking about that.
Speaker 3: They didn't.
Speaker 2: So thirty seven to thirty one. I think Washington will
Speaker 2: probably be a three to a four point underdog against Michigan.
Speaker 2: I'll take Washington in the points, although I'm not sure
Speaker 2: they'll win. I think the game Michigan's got much better
Speaker 2: defensive backs than Texas and.
Speaker 3: Are a handful.
Speaker 2: I mean, Washington just went through a battle with a big,
Speaker 2: strong Texas team and here we go one week from
Speaker 2: now it's Michigan. So that's going to be an all
Speaker 2: time classic. Let's start with Washington. This is how they play,
Speaker 2: so all their games look like this. It's exhausting. I
Speaker 2: grew up in the Pacific northwestn a Husky fan forever.
Speaker 2: This has been I mean, in the history of college football,
Speaker 2: the team that wins the National Championship looks like it
Speaker 2: in about Week four or five, and they usually have
Speaker 2: six to seven blowouts. Even in the NFL over the
Speaker 2: last decade, all but one team in the last decade,
Speaker 2: one Super Bowl champ has had fewer than six blowouts.
Speaker 2: And that's in pro football. The margins are very tight.
Speaker 2: In college football, your national championship team usually has seven
Speaker 2: or eight blowout that's what you know, like Michigan had
Speaker 2: this year, that's what Texas had. Washington doesn't blow anybody.
Speaker 2: I mean the Apple Cup against Washington State was close.
Speaker 2: Oregon State and the rain was close. Aeron Zona State
Speaker 2: was close. Washington plays close football games. They don't have
Speaker 2: a loaded four and five star roster, they don't play downhill.
Speaker 2: What they do is have the ability, if they play poorly,
Speaker 2: to score quickly and score late. Because of Michael Pennix.
Speaker 2: And let's talk about Pennis. I think he throws the
Speaker 2: best football since maybe Joe Burrow in college. You know,
Speaker 2: it's interesting. So justin Herbert and C. J. Stroud at
Speaker 2: Oregon and Ohio State in their last college game, their
Speaker 2: coaches let him run. Did you notice tonight Pennix doesn't run.
Speaker 2: He was a running quarterback to some degree at Indiana,
Speaker 2: had a couple of surgeries acl so they make him
Speaker 2: a pocket quarterback. But Washington's coaches had a couple of
Speaker 2: quarterback draws drawn up tonight, and they're gonna let him run.
Speaker 2: They will let him run against Michigan, and it is
Speaker 2: a weapon. So JJ McCarthy and Michael Pennix will be
Speaker 2: moving in that game, their final college game for Pennix,
Speaker 2: who's a more pure thrower of the football than JJ McCarthy. Again,
Speaker 2: Washington is the kind of team. They're really built for
Speaker 2: these kind of playoff games. Because even if Washington would
Speaker 2: have been out played tonight, and they weren't they outplayed Texas,
Speaker 2: they're just built the comeback and score two touchdowns in
Speaker 2: two minutes, three minutes, four minutes.
Speaker 3: That's what.
Speaker 2: So Washington's never out of a football game because they
Speaker 2: get very good pass protection. Pennis was only sacked eleven
Speaker 2: times all year. That's insane for a guy that just
Speaker 2: sits in the pocket. He's not hyper mobile anymore. Although
Speaker 2: he's mobile, he's not hyper mobile. JJ McCarthy's probably more mobile.
Speaker 2: He was sacked eleven times, and the PAC twelve had
Speaker 2: the best conference attead in years, so he faced Oregon's
Speaker 2: defensive front twice and Texas couldn't get to him. One
Speaker 2: of the things about Michigan is the and I talked
Speaker 2: about this on FS one.
Speaker 3: Whatever makes you sleep better at night, go ahead.
Speaker 2: But the Patriots and Brady were better after Spygate, and
Speaker 2: they were better after the flate gate. Brady's numbers went
Speaker 2: up after the flate Gate. The Colts were bitter because
Speaker 2: New England was dominating the series, and so they turn
Speaker 2: the Patriots in for deflate gate. Bretdy's numbers went up
Speaker 2: once there was no extra additive air to the ball
Speaker 2: or less air in the ball. Connor Stallions, it wasn't
Speaker 2: most one percent for Michigan. They've played. If they beat
Speaker 2: Washington and their favor to beat Washington, they will have
Speaker 2: beaten Washington, Alabama, and Ohio State in order with no
Speaker 2: quote cheating. This team is about hardball, their O line,
Speaker 2: D line, their lack of penalties, their NFL bodies, their
Speaker 2: upper classmen, their discipline and intelligence. Whatever makes you sleep
Speaker 2: better at night, Spygate, the flate gate or Stallions. But
Speaker 2: now we know they're not quote cheating if they beat Washington.
Speaker 2: When's the last time Washington lost a football game? They've
Speaker 2: beaten Oregon twice and Texas twice in those four games.
Speaker 2: The last time they've played Texas twice two bowl games,
Speaker 2: beat them both Texas Texas who hammered Alabama, overwhelmed them
Speaker 2: in Tuscaloosa, physically.
Speaker 3: Pushed them around. So they're gonna have.
Speaker 2: Beaten Washington, Ohio States a juggernaut, and Alabama without the
Speaker 2: Connor Stallion's advantage. This team is about so many things.
Speaker 2: If you think it's cheating, signals there's no reason. Like
Speaker 2: I said before, I'm not gonna argue uncertain things like
Speaker 2: the vaccines absolutely saved millions of lives, especially for older people.
Speaker 2: They weren't needed for kids. I'm not a fan of mandates.
Speaker 2: They saved a lot of lives. I know six or
Speaker 2: seven people that didn't get them. They were stubborn or
Speaker 2: they don't like needles. They got sick as hell. My family,
Speaker 2: me friends, lots of we took the vaccines. We had
Speaker 2: COVID boom two days. Fine, right, So I'm just not
Speaker 2: gonna argue with you. You go ahead and live in your
Speaker 2: conspiracy theory. I don't care, And you can go ahead
Speaker 2: and convince yourself that you know Connor Stallions is the
Speaker 2: reason they won. Yeah, I'm gonna go with no. They're
Speaker 2: gonna give Washington's offense problems, and virtually nobody gives Washington's
Speaker 2: offense problems. And you're gonna watch mondy night and go, jeez,
Speaker 2: Washington's facial little pressure, Washington seems to be off, and
Speaker 2: you're gonna look up and realize this has never been
Speaker 2: about an iPhone's shaky video and hand signals. This Michigan
Speaker 2: team is one great college receiver away from being an Alzheimer.
Speaker 2: This is a really good football team. Thank you to
Speaker 2: the committee for not bending a knee for a team
Speaker 2: that's deserving on a third quarterback. Let them play somewhere else.
Speaker 2: Let's get what does deserve being mean? Remember there's only
Speaker 2: four playoff spots. There's five conferences plus Notre Dame. The
Speaker 2: structure of this playoff was always we could have six
Speaker 2: undefeated teams and four spots. Esthetics matter, Optics matter.
Speaker 3: Always have.
Speaker 2: The very foundation of college football's playoff is four spots,
Speaker 2: five conferences plus Notre Dame. It's how you look, especially
Speaker 2: at the end of the season, and these teams looked
Speaker 2: really good. You know what, Texas losing. What it told
Speaker 2: you was the SEC team was the weakest team in it.
Speaker 2: So Michigan and Washington win and Texas thumped Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
Speaker 3: So how about that.
Speaker 2: The SEC not only is not in the championship, they
Speaker 2: had the weakest and I do believe that their offense
Speaker 2: is one dimensional with Jalen Milroe, Bama SEC had the
Speaker 2: weakest team in the playoff.
Speaker 3: Wow day one a night. And I've said this.
Speaker 2: I didn't grow up in Texas, but I've always had
Speaker 2: an affinity for Sark and the Longhorns. Great program. They'll
Speaker 2: be back their nil. Their collective is raises a lot
Speaker 2: of money. Sark's good coach. The SEC is a different ballgame.
Speaker 2: Nobody's gonna go undefeated in the SEC anymore, and nobody's
Speaker 2: going undefeated in the Big Ten. I don't care how
Speaker 2: good Michigan is. You got to go out to Seattle, Eugene,
Speaker 2: La Columbus. Nobody's going undefeated in these conferences anymore. And
Speaker 2: that's okay. You'll be able to lose. Now if you're
Speaker 2: a Big Ten or an SEC team. You could lose
Speaker 2: two games and still get into the tournament if you're
Speaker 2: if they're the right two games you lose on the
Speaker 2: road close to a you know, an Oregon or an LSU.
Speaker 2: But I you know undefeated. Boy, that that seems highly unlikely.
Speaker 2: Highly unlikely.
Speaker 3: God, I love college football.
Speaker 2: Former NFL scout John Middelkoff who has the podcast a
Speaker 2: very popular podcast at the volume three and out. Let's
Speaker 2: start with Miami Baltimore for a lot of reasons. You know,
Speaker 2: you add an extra week into the regular season of
Speaker 2: the NFL. I was not a fan of it. I
Speaker 2: have defended Thursday night football though. I don't think a
Speaker 2: lot of veteran players are ready to go. But here
Speaker 2: we are teams falling apart. Miami Chubb probably out for
Speaker 2: the playoffs, to a banged up Howard the defensive back,
Speaker 2: banged up. You know, here you go to last weekend,
Speaker 2: you feel pretty good. You know. Baltimore is a little
Speaker 2: like San Francisco. They pound you. You come out of
Speaker 2: these games against the Niners or the Ravens, and I
Speaker 2: look at what is Miami today. They're gonna be a
Speaker 2: wild card team, A real possibility of that what to you,
Speaker 2: because I got thoughts on Dallas just isn't close to
Speaker 2: the team that I thought they should have lost to Detroit.
Speaker 2: What's Miami to you today?
Speaker 1: Well, to me, I think they are a one and
Speaker 1: done team in the playoffs, you know, assuming they lose
Speaker 1: to Buffalo, which I'm sure you and I know I'm
Speaker 1: gonna take Buffalo next week. Yes, and that's a team
Speaker 1: that's you know, obviously trending in the right direction. You
Speaker 1: know what sucks for Miami is they were having an
Speaker 1: awesome season for them, right, They're not like some powerhouse
Speaker 1: franchise over the last couple of decades, and now it
Speaker 1: all comes unravel. And here's the thing. What has been
Speaker 1: their downfall when they've played good teams? Now, they didn't
Speaker 1: take care of business last week against Dallas right after
Speaker 1: Dak let them on that drive, they drove and they
Speaker 1: won the game. But today they were manhandled like that
Speaker 1: was a difference in class. And here's the thing with
Speaker 1: the you know, not winning the division. Do you like
Speaker 1: this team on the road in Kansas City? Do you
Speaker 1: like this team on the road in Buffalo? Like this
Speaker 1: is not even an indictment on McDaniel. Intua. It's the
Speaker 1: history of the franchise. They don't play well in weather
Speaker 1: Like listen, Kansas City's comfortable playing these twenty five twenty games.
Speaker 1: They'll do it all day long and say come on
Speaker 1: into Arrowhead. You're not gonna beat us, because that's that's
Speaker 1: got the three six written all over it, right or
Speaker 1: however the seeding breaks down now maybe I guess depending
Speaker 1: on how it breaks, could they I guess if they
Speaker 1: lost next week, they wouldn't even be the five, they'd
Speaker 1: be the sixth seed. So you'd be looking at going
Speaker 1: on the road in Kansas City, and I don't think
Speaker 1: there's a soul that's gonna pick them, and they would be,
Speaker 1: you know, a one and done team, which sucked because
Speaker 1: they really did make some good strides. I do think
Speaker 1: big picture, you got Fangio, you keep improving the roster
Speaker 1: like they're not going away. But like, physicality is a
Speaker 1: huge part of this league, and the Niners, who are
Speaker 1: clearly one of the more physical teeths, got shoved around
Speaker 1: by the Ravens. And today was did that look like
Speaker 1: Alabama playing cal Paly or something to that.
Speaker 2: I know what John think about this. In the last
Speaker 2: twenty years. Who has dominated the NFL. New England cold
Speaker 2: weather team, Baltimore has been a great team, cold weather
Speaker 2: outdoor team San Francisco. It's the Bay Area, but it's Chile.
Speaker 2: You get some in the late New Year. It's Wendy
Speaker 2: and Chile. You don't see think about the warm weather teams.
Speaker 2: Brady goes down to Tampa quickly. But there is there
Speaker 2: is an argument that the Philadelphias and the Baltimore's and
Speaker 2: the New England's, you know, it's it's and I'm not
Speaker 2: saying warm weather dome teams can't be really really good.
Speaker 2: But we've watched Buffalo, Cincinnati, Kansas City, New England, you know,
Speaker 2: and I and Baltimore and the AFC and the Steelers
Speaker 2: have underperformed the last ten years. They've still been viable.
Speaker 2: So I do think there is something. I mean, John,
Speaker 2: there's no question. I live in California. When I go
Speaker 2: on the road a forty seven degree day, I'm like,
Speaker 2: get me out of here. What is going on? When
Speaker 2: you play in Miami. It's not a criticism, it's a reality.
Speaker 2: I just don't trust them on the road.
Speaker 1: In jam We'll think about two of the better organizations
Speaker 1: with Drew Brees and the Saints and Peyton Manning and
Speaker 1: the Colts over the last couple decades were not great
Speaker 1: outdoor teams. You know, in the playoffs, right, they had
Speaker 1: to be in a confined environment to have their best opportunity.
Speaker 1: And they had Drew Brees and Peyton Manning right, just
Speaker 1: because the culture of your franchise offensive cultures both those
Speaker 1: two teams right. Look at Miami and today was less
Speaker 1: about Miami. I didn't think they were gonna win. Was
Speaker 1: much more to me about Baltimore, who now checks all
Speaker 1: the boxes of a super Bowl level team. They have
Speaker 1: a super Bowl winning coach, they have a quarterback who's
Speaker 1: gonna win the MVP and is playing the best football
Speaker 1: of his career. I texted with a buddy who's on
Speaker 1: the staff after they kicked the Niners ass, and he's like,
Speaker 1: I don't think people quite understand how good this defensive
Speaker 1: coordinator is. He's like a boy genius. He's pretty special.
Speaker 1: And so they have incredible coaching, great talent. Nailed some
Speaker 1: draft picks. I mean, Zay Flowers looks like Hilriek junior.
Speaker 1: The personnel department has always been top notch. What happened
Speaker 1: last year trade for Roquan Smith, leading tackler in the NFL.
Speaker 1: They have guys on that defense on their front four
Speaker 1: that aren't sexy, huge TJ Watt, JJ Watt and Nick Boston.
Speaker 1: You don't even beside Clowney. They're not famous group. They
Speaker 1: dominate so and that's always kind of been their thing
Speaker 1: upfront physicality. We know they can run the ball. Now
Speaker 1: Lamar's throwing like this, I think the pressure, uh listen.
Speaker 1: I think the two to one seeds is super Bowl
Speaker 1: or bust. Like anything less than a Super Bowl championship
Speaker 1: for the Niners or the Ravens is gonna feel like
Speaker 1: a letdown. Now, you would say in the AFC, just
Speaker 1: playing Kansas City, who has championship medal Buffalo, if they
Speaker 1: win with Josh Allen that they're gonna be a tough out.
Speaker 1: It's still to me a little harder in the AFC
Speaker 1: than it will be for San Francisco. But I think
Speaker 1: Baltimore is clearly the heavy favorite right now.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, And I gotta be honest with you.
Speaker 2: Whenever I see this on the internet, and I don't
Speaker 2: mind when fans do this, I not that my standard
Speaker 2: for fans. Fan is short for fanatics, So when fans
Speaker 2: want to get all fiery, I have no problem with it.
Speaker 2: And I see the media to this stuff. You know,
Speaker 2: if I want Baltimore, I'm really happy for Baltimore and
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson. I had real doubts he was skinny and
Speaker 2: ran too much. And my takeaway is, I don't know
Speaker 2: if it's going to work in the pros. If these
Speaker 2: GM if there was a secret to successful quarterbacks, then
Speaker 2: seventy seven percent of drafted quarterbacks round one through seven
Speaker 2: wouldn't fail.
Speaker 3: Like nobody knows.
Speaker 2: I mean outside of Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow,
Speaker 2: Elway Marino. It's like, you don't know. But I will
Speaker 2: say this. I think one of the things I really
Speaker 2: and I can explain it with Lamar. He was so
Speaker 2: magnificent stylistically and so unique that people just don't know
Speaker 2: what to do with players like that. I grew up
Speaker 2: with a player named George Gervin in the NBA. There's
Speaker 2: never been a player that played like him. The guy
Speaker 2: weighed I sort of got.
Speaker 3: He weighed one.
Speaker 2: Hundred and fifty, he was six seven. Everything was a
Speaker 2: finger roll. He was an All Star for years, but
Speaker 2: he never got listed among the great because nobody played
Speaker 2: like George Kurbin. He was this six seven wiry, small
Speaker 2: school odd game and Alex English led the eighties in
Speaker 2: the NBA scoring, didn't jump angle angle jump shooter, He
Speaker 2: didn't make top seventy five team. He led the eighties
Speaker 2: and scoring. Yeah, so when you get these players that
Speaker 2: are so unique, we don't know what to We don't
Speaker 2: know what to do with Lamar, but we have to
Speaker 2: acknowledge this. He just keeps getting better. He's clearly coachable,
Speaker 2: and he is the soul of that team. Those he's
Speaker 2: the opposite of Russ. His teammates love him. I mean
Speaker 2: they love him.
Speaker 1: He to me, you know, for a guy now who's
Speaker 1: worth two hundred million dollars, still has a humility around
Speaker 1: him and there's a connectivity to him clearly in the
Speaker 1: locker room that I think Jalen showed last year that
Speaker 1: you can't fake that. You either got it or you don't.
Speaker 1: It comes naturally to you. And like you said, this
Speaker 1: is why you draft on character, worketh and love of football,
Speaker 1: because that's how you improve. Like you don't improve, you
Speaker 1: know what happens the six months when you're not practicing
Speaker 1: in the offseason. He's gotten dramatically better. The other conversation
Speaker 1: on the internet is laughable, is like, I can't believe
Speaker 1: no one went after him. It's again, the Ravens were
Speaker 1: never letting him go. Never. It's one of those things
Speaker 1: like in the NBA with restrictive free agency, why did
Speaker 1: no one make Austin Reeves an offer? Because the Lakers
Speaker 1: are gonna match it. The Ravens weren't trading you, Lamar Jackson, right,
Speaker 1: And clearly, you know, here's the other thing, young people,
Speaker 1: The situations financially impact you know, mentally, we get impacted
Speaker 1: by all sorts of things, and clearly last year threw
Speaker 1: them off the contract. This is a business, though, and
Speaker 1: I'm sure we'll talk about Sean Payton and Russell like
Speaker 1: we're talking a lot of money, So sometimes they get
Speaker 1: kind of contentious. Last year was weird. They figured it out.
Speaker 1: Everything's good, and not only this year, don't you feel
Speaker 1: just for the next several years, he's kind of come
Speaker 1: into his own a lot like Mahomes did several years ago.
Speaker 1: Josh Allten, I mean, he's one of the best players
Speaker 1: in recent memory.
Speaker 2: I remember when Aaron Rodgers was in his prime and
Speaker 2: Vegas said he was worth eleven points a game. If
Speaker 2: you look at the Ravens with Lamar twenty eight, a
Speaker 2: game without him seventeen, so he's worth eleven points. He
Speaker 2: is Aaron Rodgers in his prime. And what I like
Speaker 2: about him. Whereas Aaron sort of a finesse player. You know,
Speaker 2: he throws it off his feet, throws it.
Speaker 3: Away if he doesn't like to play.
Speaker 2: Lamart has a weird physicality about him, like he kind
Speaker 2: of likes to get hit. He's kind of physical, and
Speaker 2: I think players feed off it.
Speaker 1: I think he is so much better than he was
Speaker 1: when he won the MVP and kind of took the
Speaker 1: league by storm. He's so much under control, you know,
Speaker 1: for a running quarterback. He feels much more poised now
Speaker 1: when he's scrambling around because he's scrambling looking to throw.
Speaker 1: I also think he's always kind of had a knack.
Speaker 1: When I was in Philly, Michael Vick was kind of reckless.
Speaker 1: He didn't know how to slide. He went into a
Speaker 1: lot of contact and got molly wopped. Lamar's pretty good
Speaker 1: at like kind of hitting the ground on some runs.
Speaker 1: He's not trying to be a hero, and no one
Speaker 1: questions that. Like it's like, Lamar, we got to pick
Speaker 1: your spots. You're too valuable. And he's just come into
Speaker 1: his own with his talent. Like I He's gonna have
Speaker 1: a lot of pressure though in the playoffs because it's
Speaker 1: home games. He hasn't much had much, you know, postseason success.
Speaker 1: This team's built to win big. It's a tough place
Speaker 1: to play. He's got you know, they kind of get
Speaker 1: two weeks now. This game doesn't mean anything. Next week
Speaker 1: you get the two week rest a lot like the
Speaker 1: forty nine ers, and it's just it's everyone's looking at them,
Speaker 1: like if you're not in the super Bowl, it's gonna
Speaker 1: be a major, major disappointment all right.
Speaker 2: Time for Sharper Square Chad Millman, CCO, The Action Network.
Speaker 2: All odds provided by DraftKings. I'm not prone to brag,
Speaker 2: but I.
Speaker 3: Am on a little bit of a heater.
Speaker 4: I don't talk about it, don't say it. You're gonna
Speaker 4: turn yourself into a cooler man. I know.
Speaker 2: So listen, there's only two games all year that have
Speaker 2: made me bitter and losing. I lost a dooint in
Speaker 2: the Saints game because they hit the crossbar and a kick,
Speaker 2: and that Colts Raiders game. You told me to stay away.
Speaker 2: I still contend this morning the Colts was aside.
Speaker 3: Whatever whatever.
Speaker 4: You know what though, here's the good news. Here's the
Speaker 4: good news.
Speaker 5: You and I were texting and I was begging you
Speaker 5: to bet the Cardinals, to.
Speaker 4: Be my betting daddy, and you did. I did, and
Speaker 4: it felt good, right, it felt great.
Speaker 2: But I you know what's funny, I really I Greg
Speaker 2: co Sel comes on my show and I told Greg today,
Speaker 2: I said, Greg, I watch him play, and I'm like,
Speaker 2: there's not three of him on the planet. I like
Speaker 2: Kyler Murray. I don't care about his video games. I
Speaker 2: watch him. I'm like, I wouldn't want to tackle him.
Speaker 3: He's just great.
Speaker 2: He's just like if you were in a school yard
Speaker 2: and you're like, who's the guy that nobody can.
Speaker 3: Tackle, you'd be like that guy him and Lamar like,
Speaker 3: I just like him. So all right, let's start. Let's
Speaker 3: start with this because it's it's a weird week. It's
Speaker 3: a bad week. You don't have starters. Who really cares.
Speaker 2: One of the things a sports gambler told me years
Speaker 2: ago he loved betting March madness he goes because everybody's in.
Speaker 2: There's no like, oh, you know, it's a long road trip,
Speaker 2: like the NBA goes.
Speaker 3: NBA. You've got to pick your spots. March Madness.
Speaker 2: All games are true. This is the most untrue week
Speaker 2: of the NFL season, Like who cares? So I would
Speaker 2: take the Texans minus one and a half against the
Speaker 2: Colts because basically you're saying to yourself, who do you trust?
Speaker 4: Yes, I think c J.
Speaker 3: Stroud is better.
Speaker 2: Than we think, and I think we all think he's good.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take the Texans. I I think c J.
Speaker 3: Stroud.
Speaker 2: I watch him play. I love his I love his setup,
Speaker 2: I love his arm strength, I love his accuracy.
Speaker 3: I think he's sensational.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I had no idea his comp was Jared Goff.
Speaker 2: I didn't know he would be slightly better than Jared
Speaker 2: his first year. I thought comp is like he'll become.
Speaker 2: I'm like, he's Jared Goff with more of a power
Speaker 2: arm that moves better.
Speaker 3: So I like the Texans. Here Sharper square.
Speaker 4: Well, Look, we.
Speaker 5: Discussed this exact game today, and for those who are
Speaker 5: listening for the first time on my podcast The Favorites,
Speaker 5: we will do this segment where we do something called
Speaker 5: sharp Calls, and we get calls me and my co
Speaker 5: host Simon Hunter. We'll get calls from professional betters throughout
Speaker 5: the week who listen to our show on Tuesday and
Speaker 5: then on Thursday. By Thursday, they've got opinions, and they
Speaker 5: will call us over the forty eight hours between Tuesday
Speaker 5: and Thursday and give us their opinions. This game was
Speaker 5: completely divided, so the Texans opened as one and a
Speaker 5: half point underdogs in this game Sunday night. I will
Speaker 5: tell you right now, it was the first game that
Speaker 5: I bet the Texans plus one and a half. The
Speaker 5: wise guys bet at two, They bettered at one, then
Speaker 5: they better at pick, then they better at Texans minus one.
Speaker 5: Now it's minus one and a half. So you're I
Speaker 5: agree the Texans are still the right side. I think CJ.
Speaker 2: Strebber last week. I told you I think they're going
Speaker 2: to clobber the Titans.
Speaker 3: They're a better team.
Speaker 5: One hundred percent right, they are a better team. Gardner
Speaker 5: Minshew plays with fire every week.
Speaker 4: He has the.
Speaker 5: Fourth most turnover worthy throws of anybody in the NFL,
Speaker 5: behind Josh Jobbs, Desmond Ritter, Daniel Jones, Okay, Shane Steichen
Speaker 5: just keeps him out of trouble. But when Gardner Minshew
Speaker 5: has to come back or potentially is in trouble, that's
Speaker 5: when there's trouble, right, And so you're kind of betting
Speaker 5: on CJ. Stroud to be better than Gardner Minshew in
Speaker 5: a post game where every possession is going to matter
Speaker 5: on the field. That's what you're doing, totally sharp. Here's
Speaker 5: why the wise guys might not be on your side,
Speaker 5: and this is why this game was split in such
Speaker 5: a good debate today. When you start betting on a
Speaker 5: team that goes from being an underdog to being a favorite,
Speaker 5: historically the percentages work against you in terms of covering.
Speaker 5: So that's why wise guys, when it's at one and
Speaker 5: a half Texans minus one and a half, they start
Speaker 5: to walk away and start to think about the Colts.
Speaker 2: The second game is Bill Belichick is nothing if not
Speaker 2: a grudge holder. He wants to win this game so
Speaker 2: much because his career. I mean, there's like multiple stories
Speaker 2: out of the Boston Herald Belichick's out. He's told his
Speaker 2: staff he wants to screw up their draft. He's gonna
Speaker 2: walk out of here, get the Washington job. He cares
Speaker 2: so deeply about winning, you think he wants to hand
Speaker 2: them Michael Pennix or Drake May you want them fifth.
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna say they they if you watch them
Speaker 2: the last three weeks, I mean it. Guess Buffalo. You're like, oh,
Speaker 2: they're really competing. Oh yeah, they're really competing. I'm gonna
Speaker 2: take the Patriots minus two and a half at home
Speaker 2: to beat a listless Jets team.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's totally square. You're stepping in. Look, it's not
Speaker 5: a game that anybody wants to bet. This all of
Speaker 5: a sudden is the corner TV game, right, because you're
Speaker 5: getting a short home favorite, in which the book maker
Speaker 5: are saying to the squares, come on, I dare you
Speaker 5: take the short home favorite. Take the team that has
Speaker 5: been competitive the past few weeks at less than a
Speaker 5: field goal.
Speaker 4: That's what we want you to do.
Speaker 5: And if the bookmakers are telling you they want you
Speaker 5: to do something, then you want to do something else.
Speaker 5: So the wise guys are going to be on the
Speaker 5: Jets here. But this is not one of those games
Speaker 5: where everyone's like, oh, yeah, I gotta take. There is
Speaker 5: huge edge in the Jets or the Patriots in this game.
Speaker 5: I will tell you one other thing, and it's interesting
Speaker 5: for this week because it's applicable for every game Home
Speaker 5: teams in Division games the past five years forty seven
Speaker 5: percent against the spread.
Speaker 3: That's weird.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's weird. It is.
Speaker 5: But then you got to like, look, Colin, there's a
Speaker 5: million stats and trends that you could sort of layer
Speaker 5: onto this. Right, you got to think about and it's
Speaker 5: not applicable in this game, but it will be in others.
Speaker 5: You can't take every trend and just say, Okay, I'm
Speaker 5: going to do it. Trends are the handrail on the
Speaker 5: roller coaster. If you've got an opinion. They might make
Speaker 5: you feel a little more secure. It can make you
Speaker 5: feel like you're making a better decision. It should not
Speaker 5: be what you base your decision on.
Speaker 2: All Right, a game, I like Bills minus three at Miami.
Speaker 2: Now Chubb and Phillips are out no pass rush against
Speaker 2: Josh Allen. I think the Bills are a better team.
Speaker 2: I think they were looking ahead to Miami when they
Speaker 2: played New England. I thought the Dolphins were awful defensively.
Speaker 2: I think the reality has hit Miami. They now their
Speaker 2: defense had a pass rush and not much else, and
Speaker 2: now it doesn't have a pass rush. Buffalo is a
Speaker 2: better team. Josh Allen has eaten against Miami like Brian
Speaker 2: Flores couldn't stop him.
Speaker 3: Mike mcdet, they just don't have the personnel.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take Buffalo to win by a touchdown minus
Speaker 2: three Sharper square.
Speaker 5: Most interesting game on the board. I'll tell you right
Speaker 5: now it's square. But I will also tell you and
Speaker 5: I and our best friend Simon, we're making an executive
Speaker 5: decision on this. We're going to be in the fox
Speaker 5: hole together. We like the Bills in this spot. Let
Speaker 5: me give you some interesting stats.
Speaker 2: I did Tyreek Hill by the way, house burns down midweek. Look,
Speaker 2: so i'll mention you tell me that's not disrupt.
Speaker 5: Listen, you mentioned Chubb, You mentioned the injuries on the
Speaker 5: defensive side of the ball. Tyreek Hill has been playing injured.
Speaker 5: Waddle has been playing injured. I do think I am
Speaker 5: not a guy who believes that there are emotional storylines
Speaker 5: that can be hindrances, because these guys are professionals. But look,
Speaker 5: Tyreek Hill, there was video from practice. He did not
Speaker 5: look like it looked like he was taking this as
Speaker 5: he should, which is scary and something that can be
Speaker 5: a distraction. Right, I agree with you in every respect
Speaker 5: on this game. Here's something cool October second. So on
Speaker 5: October second, Buffalo was minus one point forty to win
Speaker 5: the AFC East. Miami was plus one thirty eight. On
Speaker 5: December third, two months later, Buffalo plus I let me
Speaker 5: got my glasses on here because I want to make
Speaker 5: sure you'd it right. I didn't know you were gonna.
Speaker 4: Ask me this question.
Speaker 5: So it just just happens to be Buffalo plus fifteen
Speaker 5: hundred to win the AFC East, Miami minus four hundred. Okay,
Speaker 5: So basically, for those listening, you don't know, Buffalo was
Speaker 5: such a long shot that they were not even a
Speaker 5: consideration to win the AFC East. Miami was so much
Speaker 5: was expected to win so easily that you had to
Speaker 5: spend so much money if you wanted to bet on them.
Speaker 5: Right now, Buffalo has the shortest odds it's had all season,
Speaker 5: minus one sixty five to win the AFC East.
Speaker 4: It has been a roller coaster.
Speaker 5: What's amazing is Buffalo could end up being the best
Speaker 5: team in the NFL right now, and if they don't
Speaker 5: win this game, they might not make the playoffs.
Speaker 2: Okay, now we do a dumpster dive, but since most
Speaker 2: of the schedules dumpster die, Yes, I want to end
Speaker 2: this week with Michigan and Washington. So I took Washington
Speaker 2: money line against Texas, and I took Michigan against Bama,
Speaker 2: went to and Oh. I do think Michigan matches up
Speaker 2: much better against Washington. They don't give up cheap, over
Speaker 2: the top touchdowns, and I do worry Kaylin de Boor
Speaker 2: is a remarkable coach with extra time. They don't have
Speaker 2: extra time. So now you've got to play back to
Speaker 2: back against a superior team. Washington heavily penalized, Michigan never penalized.
Speaker 2: The older team is Michigan. They're the better team. They
Speaker 2: have seven blowouts. Washington just keeps winning narrowly. I'm a Husky.
Speaker 2: I'm out down to Washington, but I think Michigan wins
Speaker 2: this game by a touchdown. I would swallow the four
Speaker 2: four and a half all odds provided by DraftKings Sharper Square.
Speaker 4: I don't have a strong opinion.
Speaker 5: I haven't gotten that much intel in the market of
Speaker 5: whether or not the wise guys are going to be
Speaker 5: on the Huskies gonna be on the Wolverines. I don't
Speaker 5: want to mislead you in any way with that. I
Speaker 5: don't disagree with your assessment. And look, I love this
Speaker 5: Washington team. I've like I went to Indiana. I'm a
Speaker 5: huge fan of Michael Pennix. Like the only time we've
Speaker 5: been relevant since I graduated college was when Michael Penix
Speaker 5: was playing quarterback for half of three seasons because he
Speaker 5: couldn't stay healthy. I think the guy got job not
Speaker 5: getting the Heisman. You put someone with that record, those stats,
Speaker 5: the gauntlet of teams that he played in the SEC,
Speaker 5: or the Big Ten or even the ACC, He's winning
Speaker 5: the Heisman hands down, I think it's I think he
Speaker 5: got robbed completely.
Speaker 4: But I do agree with you. Like this Michigan team.
Speaker 5: They are unafraid and they beat people up and at
Speaker 5: the line of scrimmage, they are just so freaking physical.
Speaker 4: It is really daunting.
Speaker 5: And there is nothing like that in the past twelve
Speaker 5: and there is that is something that Alabama was used
Speaker 5: to seeing, like something that combination of speed and physicality
Speaker 5: that doesn't exist in the Pac twelve. So I do
Speaker 5: think that it'll be a quarter of Washington being like, oh,
Speaker 5: even on film, we thought it was different, but it's
Speaker 5: different when you're playing it. So I can't give you
Speaker 5: a specific side, but I do like your analysis.
Speaker 4: All Right, my man, you don't want to bet the Giants.
Speaker 5: You don't want to bet the Panthers, you don't want
Speaker 5: to bet the Titans.
Speaker 2: Ough gross. I will say this. I took the Giants
Speaker 2: against the Rams. You know I've said this before. I
Speaker 2: think Tyrod Taylor is the best backup.
Speaker 3: In the league. That's my opinion. So what's the number?
Speaker 3: This week?
Speaker 5: The Giants were at five five and a half. I
Speaker 5: like the Giants. A buddy of mine we were talking
Speaker 5: about Tyrod Taylor and he used a great analogy. He said,
Speaker 5: Tyrod Taylor is like nineteen at the blackjack table. You're
Speaker 5: not going to get excited about it. You got a
Speaker 5: pretty good chance at winning, but there's still a chance
Speaker 5: you can lose, but you're comfortable with it.
Speaker 4: You feel like you got a shot. Yeah.
Speaker 5: I thought that was brilliant and I'm stealing it and
Speaker 5: I'm giving it to you and I want you to
Speaker 5: steal it. It is exactly who Tyrod Taylor is. So
Speaker 5: I think, Look, the Giants are more competitive with him.
Speaker 4: They will want to win this game. They will blitz.
Speaker 5: The Eagles offensive line is in really struggling right now.
Speaker 5: They're play calling you struggling. AJ Brown is struggling. There's
Speaker 5: something going on. We have seen it all year long
Speaker 5: with this locker room. So I'll be playing the Giants
Speaker 5: and I will definitely playing the Tennessee Titans plus five
Speaker 5: and a half.
Speaker 3: I'm not even gonna talk about that. I can't. They're unwatchable.
Speaker 4: You can talk about Arizona and Seattle.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but I love Kyler Murray, so I love watching
Speaker 2: them playing. I love watching Kyler Murra love him, I
Speaker 2: really do. Connor's great there running back Kyler. I can
Speaker 2: watch them all day. Tennessee is like walking past the
Speaker 2: construction site. It's just loud, overbearing. I can't get out
Speaker 2: of it fast enough. It's just gross, clanking, nothing good
Speaker 2: about it.
Speaker 4: What about Minnesota Detroit, That's another one, fascinating.
Speaker 2: I stay away, you know again, it's it's what's Detroit
Speaker 2: playing for. I don't like those. I don't like these
Speaker 2: games where I wouldn't be shocked. Two series, Detroit lead
Speaker 2: seven nothing and they sit all their starters. They just
Speaker 2: wanted their guys to get practice.
Speaker 5: That's why you're taking Minnesota in that game, ugh, Nick Mullins.
Speaker 5: Nick Mullins lit him up. Listen, Nick Mullins is the
Speaker 5: epitome of gambling. If Tyrad Taylor is you know, comfortable nineteen, Nick.
Speaker 3: M he was a fourteen.
Speaker 4: Nick Mullens is hidden on sixteen.
Speaker 5: That is, Nick Mullins is hidden on sixteen when and
Speaker 5: the dealer is showing twenty like you are just going
Speaker 5: for it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but you know what a sixteen is in blackjack.
Speaker 2: You're embarrassed, you're holding, but you know you have to
Speaker 2: or the table disrespects you. But you literally feel like
Speaker 2: I've lost all my testosterone. I mean you literally every
Speaker 2: time I have a sixteen, I'm like, you got to
Speaker 2: hit a sixteen, but you can't because you're being judged
Speaker 2: at the table by all the smart people.
Speaker 4: And that's how Nick Marlins plays.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think he's a twelve is what he is.
Speaker 3: It's like you want to hit it, but not supposed to.
Speaker 4: Wow, all right, fine, all right buddy, And then taught
Speaker 4: to you later
Speaker 1: The volume