1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: It's the Favorites presented by FanDuel. Football season is here 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:06,320 Speaker 1: and there's no better place to get in on the 3 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:09,640 Speaker 1: action than FanDuel. I love betting with fandel because They're 4 00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:11,840 Speaker 1: app is safe, secure and easy to use, and when 5 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:15,239 Speaker 1: I win, I get paid fast. So use promo code 6 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:17,919 Speaker 1: Favorites and download the FanDuel app today to make every 7 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:21,759 Speaker 1: moment more this football season. 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In Kansas call one 16 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:53,960 Speaker 1: eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in Louisiana one 17 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 1: eight seven seven eight hope and why or text hope 18 00:00:57,720 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 1: and why four seven three six nine. In York, Tennessee, 19 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 1: redline is one eight eight eight nine eight nine called 20 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:06,679 Speaker 1: one eight hundred five to two four seven zero zero 21 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:10,960 Speaker 1: in Wyoming, or visit www dot one eight hundred gambler 22 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites the 23 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:25,840 Speaker 1: podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I I am Shad Millman, 24 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. I am joined 25 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:34,040 Speaker 1: as I am for every episode by my bff, my companion, 26 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 1: my compadre, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, what a day chat. 27 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 1: So many things happen, so many moving parts, crazy forty 28 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 1: eight hours in the world of Chicago Bears fans. I 29 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 1: gotta say welcome to our listeners who are listening live 30 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:56,680 Speaker 1: on AMP. We're really enjoying it doing it live on AMP. 31 00:01:56,760 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 1: Not that we don't still love doing a podcast for 32 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 1: the literally hundreds of thousands of other listeners who are 33 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:10,080 Speaker 1: not listening on AMP. Since I have everybody's attention, Simon 34 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:13,799 Speaker 1: and I have been teasing for the past couple of 35 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:18,520 Speaker 1: weeks that we are doing a live episode a live 36 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 1: Favorites from Quenland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky, the horse 37 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:30,639 Speaker 1: capital of the world. That is this Friday, one pm 38 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:37,640 Speaker 1: Eastern Friday afternoon recording from Radio Row inside keen Land 39 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:42,400 Speaker 1: Again one pm Keenland Friday, afternoon Radio Row. If you're 40 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:44,840 Speaker 1: headed to the Breeders Cup, we love to see you 41 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:48,760 Speaker 1: come by. Simon will be there, Matt Mitchell will be there, 42 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 1: I will be there. We're all gonna be there, big, 43 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 1: big live show from Kingsland Radio Row one pm Eastern 44 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 1: Friday afternoon. And I can promise you if you're like nearby, 45 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 1: you're likeways wanted to meet these guys. This is it. 46 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:05,280 Speaker 1: I will never be back in Kentucky and Lexington the 47 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:08,080 Speaker 1: rest of my life most likely, but in this at 48 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 1: least this form. Me and Chad talked all the time 49 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:14,280 Speaker 1: about you know, live show. We'll try to work on 50 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:18,480 Speaker 1: something for our northeast. People got complaints about that. But 51 00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 1: as far as me being in lexingtonder in the football season, 52 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 1: this is a baby. The only time I'll be there 53 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:24,919 Speaker 1: is for the Breeders Cups. So yeah, if you want 54 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 1: to come meet us, we'll be there Friday. Maybe Chad's 55 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 1: Chad's dipping out. Maybe in that night that city you're 56 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:32,120 Speaker 1: gonna buy me a drink. Will be a good time. 57 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 1: I'll be there Thursday, I'm leaving Friday. You'll be there 58 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 1: Thursday night, Friday night, uhfame, We'll be hanging out with 59 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:44,720 Speaker 1: our good friends Stucky from BBOC and the Action Network podcast. 60 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 1: He lives in Lexington, his wife runs a great brother. 61 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 1: There will be all over town on Thursday night. Dude, 62 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 1: listen to me, were laughing it. What's the name of 63 00:03:52,880 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 1: the bar? The stagger in its stagger in, We gotta listen. 64 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:05,520 Speaker 1: The Chicago Bears have made a lot of moves in 65 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 1: the last forty eight hours. They got rid of ro 66 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 1: Kuan Smith. They just in the last ten minutes before 67 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:13,880 Speaker 1: we came on air, traded for Chase Claypool. So I 68 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 1: got a text from a guy went to high school with. 69 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:19,720 Speaker 1: His name is John gald who listens to the podcast. 70 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 1: He was upset about it wasn't upset, but he was 71 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 1: commenting on the Bears run defense. And my comment to 72 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:26,280 Speaker 1: him was, I don't give a short about the Bears 73 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 1: run defense. Since the bye, they seem to have figured 74 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:33,800 Speaker 1: out better ways to use justin fields. And the last 75 00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 1: forty eight hours the Bears have traded to Ray, traded 76 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 1: away ro Kwan Smith, who they were going to have 77 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:42,040 Speaker 1: to pay a shipload of money too, who's a great tackler, 78 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:44,039 Speaker 1: but he's tackling a lot of guys because the Bears 79 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:45,480 Speaker 1: defense sucks and he happens to be in the place 80 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:48,159 Speaker 1: where you're supposed to make the most tackles. So I'm 81 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:50,280 Speaker 1: not like looking over my shoulder thing, Oh my god, 82 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:51,520 Speaker 1: we're getting rid of in the guy as an all 83 00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 1: Pro linebacker when he hasn't really been an all Pro 84 00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:57,559 Speaker 1: linebacker in his career and wants a lot of money. 85 00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 1: So I was thrilled about that trade, the Chase Claypool trade. 86 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 1: That one's got some lex because now you are starting 87 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:10,560 Speaker 1: to give justin fields the weapons. You can't get a quarterback, 88 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:13,200 Speaker 1: not give him an offensive line, make bad play calls, 89 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 1: and then not give him weapons and start saying he's 90 00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:17,239 Speaker 1: no good. And this is the argument for the Bears 91 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:19,120 Speaker 1: that if they have done so many times in the past. 92 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 1: I like this move, like it a lot. Doesn't change 93 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:24,839 Speaker 1: anything for this season, but I love it for the future. 94 00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:26,920 Speaker 1: For the season. Changes for me is that now he's 95 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 1: get to put working with him during the season, going 96 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 1: to an off season. And I mean, Claypool should be 97 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:33,320 Speaker 1: your number one. We think he has a talent to 98 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:35,120 Speaker 1: be the number one. Now he should be when he's 99 00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:38,160 Speaker 1: the main focus. But again, you guys are gonna have 100 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:40,400 Speaker 1: a hundred million dollars now freed up. Right, you're not 101 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:42,280 Speaker 1: gonna pay all these guys and you just got rid 102 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 1: of so you have a bunch of money freed up. 103 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:46,520 Speaker 1: The hope is you do what the Bengals have tried 104 00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:49,400 Speaker 1: to do. You buy some offensive linemen. But unlike the Bengals, 105 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 1: you're hopefully they can work. But it's it's what other 106 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 1: options to the Bears have to do. They need to 107 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:57,480 Speaker 1: spend the money surround Justin Fields the best talent that Ken. 108 00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 1: So I like it, you guys, GM he'd drafted well 109 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:02,680 Speaker 1: with not have that many picks on your defensive side, 110 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:05,480 Speaker 1: keeping the young guys right, that's what he's doing now. 111 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:07,800 Speaker 1: He's getting guys, young guys more chances to play. And 112 00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:09,920 Speaker 1: what yea, I just nailed on the head. It's like, 113 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 1: I love what you're seeing from the Bears. You don't 114 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:14,599 Speaker 1: want to make the playoffs. If you're a Bears fan, 115 00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:17,159 Speaker 1: you kind of want to just see Justin Fields improve 116 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 1: and that's what you're seeing right now. So yeah, exciting, 117 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:22,280 Speaker 1: exciting times for the Chad and the Bears. Now we 118 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 1: can talk about some winning teams like the Eagles and 119 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:27,559 Speaker 1: the Bills, like being Matt Mitchell have I just want 120 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:31,560 Speaker 1: the Bears. I just want the Bears to be good 121 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:35,680 Speaker 1: enough to be optimistic. And also there's a report right 122 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:38,480 Speaker 1: now Matt Mitchell was sending it to us in slack. UH. 123 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:43,160 Speaker 1: One of the writers for the Texans UM says he's 124 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:46,680 Speaker 1: not seeing wide receiver Brandon Cooks at Texans walkthrough practice 125 00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:49,720 Speaker 1: right now, which means, you know, there have been rumors 126 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:53,640 Speaker 1: about Brandon Cooks potentially being traded. Uh. If he's not 127 00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:56,039 Speaker 1: a walk through and he's healthy, then chances are good 128 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 1: that he might be on the way out of Houston 129 00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:03,280 Speaker 1: as well. So, and then we went for one last week. 130 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:06,680 Speaker 1: We are three games out of first for a million 131 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 1: dollars in our contest. I thought about it this morning 132 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:12,560 Speaker 1: when I was getting ready for the day and knowing 133 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 1: we had the podcast. Did I even want to say 134 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 1: the words three games out of first for a million dollars? 135 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 1: Because I don't want to jinx it. It It makes me uncomfortable. 136 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 1: But four and one, eight straight weeks of winning records, 137 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:29,040 Speaker 1: I know, listen, we're fucking do We're the Vikings, were 138 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 1: the Falcons. You know we're due for a loss, but 139 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:37,080 Speaker 1: it feels pretty good. I mean, Chad, you can't say 140 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 1: you're not trying. You're you are ice cold, my friend. 141 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 1: But lucky for you you got your friend here, Simon. 142 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 1: But carre you through these dark times because it's really hard. 143 00:07:46,400 --> 00:07:49,200 Speaker 1: I get how hard it is. It's like every week 144 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 1: I'm second guesting to myself. I mean, Chad talks to 145 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 1: me Sunday morning. There's just during games, it just feels 146 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:56,400 Speaker 1: too easy. And like again, maybe I'm we're both just 147 00:07:56,440 --> 00:07:58,600 Speaker 1: seeing the board that well, but when we talk to them, 148 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:00,440 Speaker 1: I do think we made a little bit of tough time, 149 00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 1: right because we're picking between lines aren't good anymore, And 150 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 1: for me, Chad, we're not. We're a huge stickler for lines. 151 00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 1: But when you're sitting there and the detroits two and 152 00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 1: a half and they're four, that's tough. When you're sitting 153 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 1: there and the forty nine are minus one and a 154 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 1: half and now they're plus whatever, it was too at 155 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:17,800 Speaker 1: that point it was like, Okay, we're still gonna take 156 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:19,720 Speaker 1: the four niniars. We're still believe in it, but we 157 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:23,200 Speaker 1: knew we were taking a bad number. So the Blinds 158 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:25,280 Speaker 1: one was just brutal in the sense that they had 159 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 1: twenty seven points in that first half and all we 160 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:30,680 Speaker 1: needed was a field goal and we would have covered 161 00:08:30,760 --> 00:08:33,960 Speaker 1: that number, and instead they just could not get a 162 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:36,960 Speaker 1: single point in the second half. So great week I 163 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:39,080 Speaker 1: mean the Carolina will one again. That was one I 164 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:41,599 Speaker 1: feel like you loved and I was just agreeable with you. 165 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:45,840 Speaker 1: It's like our guy Chris Raybon is hot, He's on fire. 166 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:48,080 Speaker 1: He came in with that pick, and I was just like, 167 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:51,839 Speaker 1: I don't love it. It's a good number. Chad wants it. 168 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:54,520 Speaker 1: I'll give it to him. Because again I knew I 169 00:08:54,559 --> 00:08:56,880 Speaker 1: was picking an ugly one. That one was a public 170 00:08:57,280 --> 00:09:00,040 Speaker 1: road favorite in the divisional game. I got why. It 171 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:03,559 Speaker 1: was kind of a tough pick. But that that Carolina game, Chad, 172 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:06,839 Speaker 1: I went from being so damn mad at you because 173 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:09,120 Speaker 1: I was just like staying this being like, what the 174 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 1: hell this guy is killing me? He just he game. 175 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:14,079 Speaker 1: Why did you give us Carolina? We should because that 176 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:15,840 Speaker 1: picks six. You're probably feeling the same way after that 177 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:18,520 Speaker 1: pick six with PJ. It's tough, right when you take 178 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:20,600 Speaker 1: your dogs they threw up pick six, you think you're dead. 179 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 1: But that was really funked. It was. It was a 180 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 1: great weekend. Um to give a little more context and 181 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:30,920 Speaker 1: remind people the conscious were in the lines lock in 182 00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:32,680 Speaker 1: the middle of the week, so those are lines that 183 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 1: we play, but we don't have to put our picks 184 00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 1: in until Sunday, so we get both the benefit of 185 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 1: closing line value, but also games we love. We might 186 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:42,040 Speaker 1: not have the lines that we love on Wednesday when 187 00:09:42,040 --> 00:09:43,960 Speaker 1: we love it on when they love the game on Sunday. 188 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 1: Everything we do as transparent as it can be. We 189 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 1: put the picks into the app Action Network app. It's 190 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 1: freak download, it's award winning. Uh. You can follow every 191 00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:57,400 Speaker 1: pick we put him in Sunday follow the phase five 192 00:09:57,480 --> 00:10:00,720 Speaker 1: in the Action Network app, and you see where we 193 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:02,920 Speaker 1: land and I give explanations about why we're making the 194 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:06,520 Speaker 1: games we we chose and and where the lines closed, 195 00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:08,680 Speaker 1: and what we liked the game too. If the line 196 00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 1: that we're locking in on isn't the line that's available, 197 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 1: if we still like it on Sunday morning, just go 198 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:16,959 Speaker 1: download the app, follow the phase five. We're gonna get 199 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:20,400 Speaker 1: everything up to the minute, right, Panthers, I had to 200 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:23,319 Speaker 1: convince you of Cowboys, we both loved. Niners was a 201 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:25,719 Speaker 1: terrible line, but we decided to take it because we 202 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 1: liked the Niners regardless the Browns, we never wavered. What 203 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:32,320 Speaker 1: I liked about this conversation was normally we don't like 204 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:34,800 Speaker 1: the Monday night games because we just don't want to wait. 205 00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:38,080 Speaker 1: It's not because we think there's anything mathematical about it. 206 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:42,200 Speaker 1: We're just sucking babies and don't want to wait, especially 207 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 1: if you hate that or if you're two and two, 208 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:50,280 Speaker 1: So yeah, you gotta go through all day Monday, just 209 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:55,839 Speaker 1: fitting on an egg um. But we were stuck with it, 210 00:10:55,920 --> 00:10:57,959 Speaker 1: and the Lions were two and a half. We liked 211 00:10:58,040 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 1: him at four, we liked him at two and a half. 212 00:10:59,840 --> 00:11:03,680 Speaker 1: We've out they were alive, underdog like money line. We 213 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 1: talked about that to me was a game theory. Again, 214 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:07,560 Speaker 1: we did that a lot in the contests where I 215 00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:09,560 Speaker 1: thought the number was shipped. I said that the chat, 216 00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 1: but I said, such ship that every one of their 217 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:13,480 Speaker 1: grandma's gonna be on it. And I looked at the 218 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: contest of the people in our contest took that number, 219 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:19,760 Speaker 1: only eight percent took Detroit. So that was one of 220 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:21,960 Speaker 1: those mean chatter. Three games back. If that one hits, 221 00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 1: we're probably two games, maybe even one game. Because it 222 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:27,199 Speaker 1: was again the most pick play, especially by these top people. 223 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:29,680 Speaker 1: So again, we we're gonna do that a lot of times. 224 00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:34,760 Speaker 1: People Again, people were complaining about us taking bad numbers. Again, 225 00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:38,360 Speaker 1: we haven't even talked about the bed off. But I 226 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 1: got here. I never thought we were gonna put the 227 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:43,640 Speaker 1: vikings in, just because we never really talked about putting 228 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:45,600 Speaker 1: them in. So to me, that was gonna be a 229 00:11:45,600 --> 00:11:47,840 Speaker 1: tough one to squeeze in. So the courage that that 230 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:51,480 Speaker 1: was ugly. And there was a point on Sunday, Uh, 231 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:53,960 Speaker 1: it was very stressful as the as the early games 232 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 1: were ending. My younger son turned sixteen on Friday, he 233 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:02,120 Speaker 1: got his He got a driver's license permit in Connecticut. 234 00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 1: You gotta have your permit for a few months again, 235 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:07,040 Speaker 1: supervisors driving before you can get your license. He's been 236 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 1: wanting to drive all weekend. So I took him Saturday, 237 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 1: and like midway through the fourth quarter on Saturday, he's like, hey, Dad, 238 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:17,880 Speaker 1: can we go driving me through through the fourth quarter 239 00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:20,920 Speaker 1: of the early games? And I'm like, yeah, you know what, 240 00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:26,080 Speaker 1: let's just wait until these early games end. And uh 241 00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:29,240 Speaker 1: he's like okay. I am like standing in front of 242 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 1: the TV and at one point I'm doing the math 243 00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:36,320 Speaker 1: in my head. The do I think right now, with 244 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:41,320 Speaker 1: twelve seconds left and the Panthers down, I have a 245 00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 1: better shot with them covering than I do with the 246 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:48,280 Speaker 1: Cardinals against the Vikings with more time left on the clock. 247 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 1: And then I was like, would I rather win the 248 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 1: Panthers game and get another game in the contest or 249 00:12:55,960 --> 00:12:59,320 Speaker 1: win the bet off with Simon? And I decided, and 250 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:01,640 Speaker 1: I slapped you as this, I'd rather lose the bet 251 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 1: off and win the Panthers game. And I actually said, 252 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:04,840 Speaker 1: in my head, I think I have a better shot 253 00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:07,600 Speaker 1: to win the Panthers game, and then the Cardinals game 254 00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:10,760 Speaker 1: with a twelve second heave ho and then p J 255 00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:14,199 Speaker 1: Walker through that fucking miracle beautiful pass, and then d 256 00:13:14,320 --> 00:13:16,840 Speaker 1: J Moore took his helmet off. And then I left 257 00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 1: when Carolina like had some crazy interception, run back to 258 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:24,120 Speaker 1: take my kid driving, and I'm like, all right, we're 259 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:25,959 Speaker 1: gonna be okay. But I didn't slack anybody because I 260 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:28,200 Speaker 1: didn't want to say anything. And I got back and 261 00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:30,439 Speaker 1: saw what had happened, and it all worked out okay, 262 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:32,520 Speaker 1: and we didn't crash, and it all worked up right. 263 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:34,280 Speaker 1: It's a long winter way of saying we should have 264 00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:36,839 Speaker 1: been five Chad's got to learn to listen to a 265 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:39,600 Speaker 1: guy who's are professional. As soon as he made that pick, 266 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:42,640 Speaker 1: he already was at pcent chance of losing that bet. 267 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:44,960 Speaker 1: And what happened. Chad lost against it too, And oh 268 00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:47,960 Speaker 1: and he lost in the scuture. Let just terrible, terrible 269 00:13:48,040 --> 00:13:51,320 Speaker 1: mistakes by Chad. Oh my god, I'm so you know what, 270 00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 1: I'll take four and one. I'll drag you across the 271 00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:58,120 Speaker 1: finish line, getting so fucking big. We're not even going 272 00:13:58,160 --> 00:13:59,679 Speaker 1: to talk about the early few weeks of the year 273 00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:02,240 Speaker 1: where I was carrying you, where I was crushing let 274 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:05,360 Speaker 1: where I'm making the right choices, where it's Sunday morning, 275 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 1: whereas it's Sunday morning, and Simon is like, all the 276 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:11,240 Speaker 1: voices are in my head and so hard in the 277 00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:13,079 Speaker 1: first three weeks, and I don't have any data, And 278 00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:17,040 Speaker 1: I'm like, Simon, let's focus on what we know. Let's 279 00:14:17,080 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 1: break our bad habits, let's do the right things. So 280 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:21,920 Speaker 1: if you need to go on the air right now 281 00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:26,880 Speaker 1: and fluff yourself because you think you gotta tell everybody 282 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:29,120 Speaker 1: how genius you are, I won't. I'll be the bigger guy, 283 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 1: and I won't remind everyone I was caring you earlier 284 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:33,120 Speaker 1: in the year. I just want to learn your lesson. 285 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 1: I'm trying to flip myself. I literally called you a 286 00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:37,760 Speaker 1: full last show. I haven't called anyone a full in lifetime. 287 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:41,200 Speaker 1: I love Chad, Chad's China's Best. Don't get on Chad's case. 288 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:44,680 Speaker 1: It's really hard to pick winners, so that that card 289 00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:47,160 Speaker 1: knows one. It was just classic right, even in the 290 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:48,320 Speaker 1: back of your mind. You had to know and you 291 00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:50,360 Speaker 1: remain a mistake as soon as you saw their public dollars. 292 00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:53,840 Speaker 1: I have been betting as a winner for twenty years. 293 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:56,800 Speaker 1: I wrote the book, I started the business, I built 294 00:14:56,840 --> 00:14:59,600 Speaker 1: the beat. We sold this company for two million dollars. 295 00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:03,800 Speaker 1: Don't tell me I'm not good at making bets. That 296 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 1: literally means zero to sports gambling. I don't care. If 297 00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:08,400 Speaker 1: you wrote a thousand books on sports gambling, you still 298 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:13,440 Speaker 1: don't know anything compared to pros now. Chad Milman wrote 299 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:16,200 Speaker 1: a book. I didn't really like the Vikings. I just 300 00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 1: knew really smart group was on it. Dad came in 301 00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 1: big ahole hunch on his Cardinals. So again, I love you. 302 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:26,760 Speaker 1: I'm so are winning not eight weeks. Let's get to it. 303 00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:30,800 Speaker 1: Let's get to it Eagles, Texans, your Eagles in the 304 00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 1: city of Champions. The Eagles are thirteen and a half 305 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 1: point favorites on the road on Thursday nights. I know 306 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:44,720 Speaker 1: Chad gonna be in Houston, but this is just I'll 307 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:47,320 Speaker 1: take the best team in the NFC right now against 308 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 1: our reallly the worst team in football that cannot stop 309 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:52,840 Speaker 1: the run. Like I can't believe that that Houston couldn't 310 00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:55,120 Speaker 1: beat Tennessee last week. They had a rookie that couldn't 311 00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:58,240 Speaker 1: throw the ball further than ten yards. Derrick Henry was 312 00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 1: just a man you looked like literally nf AL player 313 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 1: playing in a high school game. But they just could 314 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:04,520 Speaker 1: not bring down Derrick Henry. I would love to take 315 00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:07,360 Speaker 1: a short, short week, take a big dog at home. 316 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:10,160 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna let them suck me in. I bet 317 00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 1: this up the fourteen, so I think you're getting a 318 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:14,080 Speaker 1: good number on the Eagles and Eagles first half. It's 319 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 1: good it's seven and oh if it's under minus six 320 00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:20,040 Speaker 1: and a half, that'd be incredible to bet, but I'm 321 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 1: not sure it is right now. But I just I 322 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 1: keep betting every week and it keeps coming through. So um, 323 00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:27,720 Speaker 1: I don't know if I'll have this in our contest. Becau. Again, 324 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:29,680 Speaker 1: this is such a huge number. I don't think you're 325 00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 1: doing this in the contest. It's the rare time where 326 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 1: it's like last week I went to and one on 327 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 1: the big favorites, and I like this big favorite this week. 328 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 1: I like the Eagles. Here, Eagles are a touchdown favorite 329 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:41,200 Speaker 1: in the first half right now. That's a nice number. 330 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:46,120 Speaker 1: So I take that um but definitely not a contest play. 331 00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 1: I mean, what do you see in Houston? How do 332 00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:51,280 Speaker 1: they cover this number? They're about to get rid of 333 00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:54,520 Speaker 1: Brandon Cooks? Like, what are they doing on third downs 334 00:16:54,520 --> 00:16:57,520 Speaker 1: that gives you confidence they can keep this close. It's 335 00:16:57,560 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 1: not a question of what I'm seeing on the field. 336 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:04,400 Speaker 1: It's only the situation. And honestly, if this wasn't the Eagles, 337 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:07,960 Speaker 1: you'd be with me. What if this was the Chiefs 338 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:09,639 Speaker 1: are the Bills, I would not be with you. If 339 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:11,480 Speaker 1: you want, you do understand how good the Eagles are, 340 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 1: right the third highest odds for the Super Bowl, Yeah, 341 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 1: I get it, but yeah, the worst team, worst of 342 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:25,600 Speaker 1: the NFL on a short week is a massive number. Yeah, 343 00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 1: But I mean, I don't know. I just don't get 344 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:30,480 Speaker 1: scared off of I mean, I feel like if this 345 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:33,119 Speaker 1: was fourteen and maybe start leading towards you, but you 346 00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:35,119 Speaker 1: get under two touchdowns for that's a nice number two 347 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:38,920 Speaker 1: for this Eagles team. Alright, Vikings on the road at 348 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:42,120 Speaker 1: the Commanders. Here's the one that we both love. Simon says, 349 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:50,640 Speaker 1: Simon says, yeah, Simon, do it? What says Simon says? 350 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:52,480 Speaker 1: Another three and a half. I think last week we 351 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:55,040 Speaker 1: give out Cleveland, they were just had three. This week 352 00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:57,119 Speaker 1: we got the little bump um. I don't know if 353 00:17:57,160 --> 00:17:58,680 Speaker 1: it was good because of t J. Hockins, and I 354 00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:00,440 Speaker 1: feel like it was three and a half um when 355 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:02,000 Speaker 1: I bet it someday, you know, it's been three and 356 00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:07,199 Speaker 1: a half since it opened. Basically, Situationally, we like Washington. 357 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:09,680 Speaker 1: We like their defense, we like the rhythm they found 358 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:11,960 Speaker 1: on all offense. That was the first time they've come 359 00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 1: back in a game. They were down double digits in 360 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:17,720 Speaker 1: the fourth quarter since Mark Brunel. Like Washington has been 361 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:20,439 Speaker 1: lost for the last like twenty years. Again, I'm not 362 00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:23,200 Speaker 1: saying Heinekes found them, but they're four and four right 363 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:25,399 Speaker 1: now in the hardest division of football. Like you can't 364 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:27,919 Speaker 1: just act like that's not pretty impressive. For this Washington 365 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:30,359 Speaker 1: team that I kind of left them for dead as well. 366 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:32,040 Speaker 1: But we've been riding in the last couple of weeks 367 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:34,040 Speaker 1: here and they've been winning for us. I'll keep it 368 00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:37,520 Speaker 1: going again. An undervalued line. We joked, this feels like 369 00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 1: a Carson Wentz tax, like they they're they're going off 370 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:41,800 Speaker 1: the data from earlier in the season and Wentz was 371 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:44,560 Speaker 1: the quarterback as well. I make this line closer two 372 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:46,960 Speaker 1: and a half too. I'll take this every time again. 373 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:50,520 Speaker 1: The Vikings are really good. Chad tried to catch him 374 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:53,399 Speaker 1: last week against the Cardinals. I just they are going 375 00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:55,440 Speaker 1: to get caught. This Viking team is going to get caught, 376 00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:57,400 Speaker 1: like they keep getting away with these games that their 377 00:18:57,400 --> 00:18:59,800 Speaker 1: defense gives up a ton of yards but they get 378 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:03,600 Speaker 1: in who prompt fumble it's on the kickoffs or dropped 379 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:07,960 Speaker 1: punts or weird interceptions by their defense. So situationally, I 380 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:10,879 Speaker 1: like Washington. The fact that their defense has been playing 381 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:12,840 Speaker 1: so well, that's huge to me because I do think 382 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:14,920 Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to get pressure pressure on Kirk here, 383 00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 1: which is a big deal. So I'm back in heinarkey Um. 384 00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:21,160 Speaker 1: This will be three weeks straight now. I backed them, 385 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,359 Speaker 1: but he's produced, He's covered for us every week we 386 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:26,440 Speaker 1: back from chat. Yeah, I love Washington in this spot. 387 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:31,040 Speaker 1: The Vikings are so interesting. Look last week, I think 388 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:34,000 Speaker 1: the Cardinals had just taken the lead. The Vikings had 389 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:37,600 Speaker 1: punted the ball the way Greg Dorch and actually Network 390 00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:40,440 Speaker 1: all time fave, going back to his college days, fumbles 391 00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:43,959 Speaker 1: the ball, the Vikings recover, they take the lead. You know, 392 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 1: Kyler Murray, they were up to at that point, But no, 393 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:48,760 Speaker 1: they took the cover. You're saying, because then they went 394 00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:51,119 Speaker 1: up nine at that point. Yeah, that's right. And so 395 00:19:51,840 --> 00:19:55,240 Speaker 1: I'll be curious this week to see where the Vikings 396 00:19:55,280 --> 00:20:00,239 Speaker 1: are in the luck rankings because they're they're like the Giants, right, 397 00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 1: they they've been getting by. Yeah, it's funny coming into 398 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:07,480 Speaker 1: the year, like the one possession games determines everything. We 399 00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:10,399 Speaker 1: haven't talked to the Jaguars um a team that has 400 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:14,000 Speaker 1: completely melted in one possession games. The Vikings. The Giants, 401 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:15,840 Speaker 1: they like they flipped their whole season because they just 402 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:19,240 Speaker 1: keep winning these one possession games. So the Vikings, to me, 403 00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:22,520 Speaker 1: the crazy part about them is the fact that Kirk 404 00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 1: hasn't been the one biting him, right, He's been actually 405 00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:28,960 Speaker 1: functioning pretty well in that offense. UM, I just never 406 00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:31,320 Speaker 1: envisioned them being sitting here with one loss head an 407 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:33,160 Speaker 1: end of week nine. It is crazy. And the only 408 00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:35,680 Speaker 1: lost this to the Eagles, so they're playing really well. 409 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:40,480 Speaker 1: The Panthers, a missed field goal away from being first 410 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:44,360 Speaker 1: place in the NFC South, are on the road at 411 00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:54,439 Speaker 1: the Bengals. There seven point underdogs, No Jamar Chase. The 412 00:20:54,520 --> 00:21:01,680 Speaker 1: Panthers are sort of probably getting out of their that 413 00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:05,919 Speaker 1: glow US against the world feeling you have when your 414 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:10,560 Speaker 1: best players traded and your coaches fired, and you know, 415 00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:18,680 Speaker 1: the Bengals were so bad on Monday Night football that 416 00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:22,800 Speaker 1: you almost feel like you're probably getting a discount here 417 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:27,040 Speaker 1: and the Panthers are overinflated. Yeah. I mean, obviously we 418 00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:29,640 Speaker 1: both wish it was six and a half, but this 419 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,440 Speaker 1: is it feels too easy sometimes, Jen like the games 420 00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:33,520 Speaker 1: you do. I don't know if you want to make 421 00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 1: this our foxhold bet, but it feels that way. Just 422 00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:37,440 Speaker 1: because I don't really think anyone's gonna be on the 423 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:39,119 Speaker 1: Bengals this week. I just see everyone coming in on 424 00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:42,520 Speaker 1: the Panthers just because they don't get it. Their schedule 425 00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:45,639 Speaker 1: of losses in football. I know it sounds crazy. I 426 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 1: couldn't tell. I try to explain the reason to EVERYONEE 427 00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:50,200 Speaker 1: about that Brown's matchup and throwing out all the d 428 00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:51,800 Speaker 1: B O and all the crazy numbers, just in the 429 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:54,000 Speaker 1: fact that you have to take a week. The week 430 00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:57,160 Speaker 1: and that Cincinnati game that was such a bad spot 431 00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:59,680 Speaker 1: for them, huge win. Now playing against the divisional thow 432 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:02,960 Speaker 1: that had a bad loss on the road. Joe Burrow 433 00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,760 Speaker 1: now owned four against that Browns team in his career. 434 00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:08,320 Speaker 1: He just does not play well against them. So now 435 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:11,920 Speaker 1: you get Joe at home oft an embarrassing loss like that. 436 00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:13,919 Speaker 1: I feel like every time he's in the spot, he 437 00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:17,119 Speaker 1: dominates the team. Just so happens. It's a team that 438 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:19,320 Speaker 1: I'm with you. Yeah, I think they might be reeling 439 00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:21,640 Speaker 1: a little bit like you just lost the divisional game 440 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:23,800 Speaker 1: that was four first in your division. Now you're going 441 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,560 Speaker 1: on the road again, right back to back road games. 442 00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:29,639 Speaker 1: That's hard. That's a really tough spot to be putting 443 00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:32,480 Speaker 1: this Carolina team and PJ and PJ played so well 444 00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:35,080 Speaker 1: in that game against Atlanta. I just can't see him 445 00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:37,360 Speaker 1: doing it again against the Bengals team that their defense 446 00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:39,800 Speaker 1: those two touchdowns. I get to the Browns the second half, 447 00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:42,320 Speaker 1: first touchdowns they gave up all season the second half, 448 00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:45,560 Speaker 1: So just a bounce back spot for the Bengals. Um, 449 00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 1: I love it. Back to back week. So I was 450 00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:49,920 Speaker 1: taking fox on a favorite fours last week. This week 451 00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:52,439 Speaker 1: the Bengals. Yeah, I'm done with that. Let's put in 452 00:22:52,440 --> 00:23:01,520 Speaker 1: the fox off. Let's clide down into the foxhole. Bills 453 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:06,399 Speaker 1: on the road, twelve point favorites at the Jets. We 454 00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:09,320 Speaker 1: got a little bit of a pro Joe split here 455 00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:14,959 Speaker 1: the tickets on the Bills of the money on the Jets. 456 00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:17,400 Speaker 1: One of our most bed games of the week so far. 457 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:22,880 Speaker 1: Last week, you love the Bills. Yeah, you know, kind 458 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:25,159 Speaker 1: of a bad beat in terms of of not getting 459 00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:28,760 Speaker 1: the cover. But you know, as soon as you saw 460 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:31,680 Speaker 1: a line up there down seventeen and you've had the ball, 461 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,359 Speaker 1: you know everyone it's it's time to turn it off 462 00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:37,880 Speaker 1: and go to bed. Yeah exactly. I went to bed 463 00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:42,200 Speaker 1: last night with the Browns. They were up five nothing. Yeah, 464 00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:45,800 Speaker 1: I'm like if it, if they come back and I 465 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:51,000 Speaker 1: miss it, that'll be time well spent sleeping. That's what 466 00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:52,719 Speaker 1: I just tweeted out that we had already won even 467 00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:54,840 Speaker 1: those third quarters. I was like, if history is made 468 00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:57,280 Speaker 1: tonight and Joe Burrow has five touchdowns in the second half, 469 00:23:58,000 --> 00:23:59,800 Speaker 1: So be it. No, this tweet is not gonna look 470 00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:02,280 Speaker 1: like idiot when I wake up, Bills are twelve point 471 00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:04,760 Speaker 1: favorites on the road of the Jets. That Bills are 472 00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 1: probably the best two on football. They played so bad 473 00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:10,159 Speaker 1: against Green Bay and they still won by ten. The 474 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:13,920 Speaker 1: weapons like when Diggs is good and Gabriel Davis is good. 475 00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:16,720 Speaker 1: When Josh Allen can pick up ten yards anytime he 476 00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:18,760 Speaker 1: wants to run it. The only way they lose is 477 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,400 Speaker 1: if they beat themselves. Like there's just so if you're 478 00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,240 Speaker 1: if you're betting the Jets, you're betting on Josh Allen 479 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:25,359 Speaker 1: having back to back bad games. And he just had 480 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,240 Speaker 1: a bad game and put up twenty seven points. So 481 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,880 Speaker 1: I just don't see it. Um historically again as a favorite, 482 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:33,480 Speaker 1: Josh Allen now in his career, I think he's six 483 00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:36,240 Speaker 1: and two now as a as a double did your favorite? Um, 484 00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:38,600 Speaker 1: So keep riding the train. I'll keep back and I'm 485 00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:41,040 Speaker 1: gonna hurt me last week, that back door hurt, but 486 00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:42,520 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna let it scare me off. I'll just 487 00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,560 Speaker 1: take this big favorite against his Zach Wilson that Yeah, 488 00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:47,600 Speaker 1: he threw for three d fifty yards, But I think 489 00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:49,960 Speaker 1: any Jets fan would say he looked lost in that game, 490 00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,160 Speaker 1: and he made a lot of dumb decisions. He said 491 00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:54,119 Speaker 1: a lot of weird quotes this week that's just rubbed 492 00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:59,000 Speaker 1: a lot of people wrong. Um, But man, I I 493 00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:03,200 Speaker 1: can't believe the fact that again that Patriots game, they're 494 00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 1: probably gonnat lose it, but it was tend to it 495 00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:09,240 Speaker 1: was ten to three, and or maybe it's ten to six, 496 00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:11,879 Speaker 1: and he throws that pick six, Matt Jones throws a 497 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:13,399 Speaker 1: pick six and they call rough in the past or 498 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:17,040 Speaker 1: so instead of being seventeen to six or um seventeen 499 00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:20,440 Speaker 1: to three, they call that back. Max drives the field, 500 00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:22,280 Speaker 1: they score a touchdown. Now they're up thirteen to ten, 501 00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:24,399 Speaker 1: and just completely flipped that game at one place. So 502 00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:28,200 Speaker 1: maybe I'm undervaluing the Jets here, but I just it's 503 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:29,960 Speaker 1: no more about the Bills. I just think the Bills 504 00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:32,720 Speaker 1: are the best team of football right now. I don't 505 00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:34,720 Speaker 1: know how the Jets are going to move the ball 506 00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,320 Speaker 1: against this Bills team. They just it's a good matchup 507 00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:40,680 Speaker 1: offensively and defensively for this Bills team. So Um, we'll 508 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:42,479 Speaker 1: stay away, we won't put in the contest, but I'll 509 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:46,399 Speaker 1: probably end up taking the Bills this week. What's interesting is, 510 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:48,000 Speaker 1: you know, last week I wanted to play the Bills 511 00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:51,800 Speaker 1: in the second half, and um, because they've been so dominant. 512 00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:54,560 Speaker 1: The line was four and a half before the game 513 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,280 Speaker 1: in the second half, and then during the game it 514 00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:59,920 Speaker 1: got down to two and a half at halftime. Ay, 515 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:02,760 Speaker 1: even though they were up I think or it was 516 00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:07,320 Speaker 1: pretty big lead at halftime. Ah, I couldn't pull the 517 00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:09,399 Speaker 1: trigger even on two and a half. I just felt 518 00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:14,440 Speaker 1: like something ain't right here and uh, and sure enough 519 00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:17,240 Speaker 1: they didn't. They didn't cover in the second half. I'd 520 00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:19,400 Speaker 1: be curious to see if I feel differently this week 521 00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:25,399 Speaker 1: on the Jets. Yeah, there's the game. Worst team. You know, 522 00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:29,720 Speaker 1: nobody who can. Like the Packers are always an Aaron Rodgers. 523 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:33,639 Speaker 1: You know Romeo Dobbs finally catching the ball pass away 524 00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:37,639 Speaker 1: from scoring. The Jets are never going to score. They 525 00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:41,720 Speaker 1: don't have good running backs, terrible terrible quarterback like they 526 00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,720 Speaker 1: lost their blue Chirp. They lost the horse of the 527 00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:49,399 Speaker 1: team and Bryce Hall. So I I don't want to 528 00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:52,479 Speaker 1: be the guy always taking right like we love home dogs, 529 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:54,919 Speaker 1: big divisional dogs. I feel like I should be on 530 00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:57,680 Speaker 1: the Jets here. I just think they're realing right now. 531 00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:00,800 Speaker 1: It's just bad, bad mojo for that team after so 532 00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:08,200 Speaker 1: many big injuries. Indianapolis Colts on the road at the 533 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:13,879 Speaker 1: New England Patriots. Patriots bounced back uh cover against the Jets. 534 00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:18,639 Speaker 1: The Colts brutal, brutal loss to Washington. Good for us. 535 00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:21,919 Speaker 1: We love Washington plus three. They're reeling right. They just 536 00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:25,080 Speaker 1: fired their offensive coordinator. Frank Reich is doing everything he 537 00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:28,600 Speaker 1: can to save his job. Sam Ellinger was kind of 538 00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:31,359 Speaker 1: blah like people would get excited about his ability to 539 00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:35,879 Speaker 1: run with the ball, but not great. Michael Pittman Jr. 540 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:39,160 Speaker 1: Dropped an easy pass in the middle of the field 541 00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:41,320 Speaker 1: that could have gotten closer to field goal range to 542 00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:46,280 Speaker 1: end the game. I don't know, kind of a dead number. Yeah, 543 00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:47,959 Speaker 1: by the by the book that you know what we're 544 00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:49,800 Speaker 1: supposed to do here, and we're supposed to take the 545 00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:51,919 Speaker 1: Colts like this is kind of the spot you do 546 00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:54,040 Speaker 1: take them after a brutal loss like that, they go 547 00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:56,680 Speaker 1: on the road. It's usually a rallying moment for this 548 00:27:56,720 --> 00:28:00,400 Speaker 1: team against the Patriots team that I still think Mac 549 00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:03,000 Speaker 1: Jones looks broken like he didn't. He wasn't the reason 550 00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:05,480 Speaker 1: they beat the Jets, like the running game and their 551 00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,800 Speaker 1: defense was the reason they beat the Jets. So, UM, 552 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:10,520 Speaker 1: I like this game to be close. I just see 553 00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:13,040 Speaker 1: these two teams are very equal. To me. We're getting 554 00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:14,760 Speaker 1: a free two and a half two points just because 555 00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:17,359 Speaker 1: the young kid on the road here. That's the fear 556 00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:21,480 Speaker 1: right with Belichick, So hard hard week for contests, like 557 00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:23,159 Speaker 1: we might have to force one of these ones in. 558 00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:26,479 Speaker 1: But just how am I gonna get behind the Colts 559 00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:28,840 Speaker 1: on the road? I can bet it. It's just hard 560 00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:30,679 Speaker 1: to make it one of my five best bets. I 561 00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:33,720 Speaker 1: just I'm scared of it. It's not even close to 562 00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:37,919 Speaker 1: a contest play. I agree with you, the Cults are 563 00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:40,360 Speaker 1: probably the right side. The Patriots are not a good 564 00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:44,200 Speaker 1: enough team to be, you know, on the plus side 565 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:48,480 Speaker 1: of closer to being a touchdown than a field goal. Um, 566 00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:52,200 Speaker 1: but do we back Mac Jones and the contest when 567 00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:57,400 Speaker 1: we're three out from a million dollars? There's no way, Uh, 568 00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:04,800 Speaker 1: but the rates one point favorites on the road at Jacksonville, 569 00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:08,960 Speaker 1: do be back the Trevor Lawrences. The line just moved 570 00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:12,640 Speaker 1: to two money just came in on the Raiders. So 571 00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:17,080 Speaker 1: the line and the Jacks just moved to uh plus two. Look, 572 00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:25,040 Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence has disappointed us NonStop, non freaking stop. But 573 00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:30,360 Speaker 1: as a dog at home against a not very good team, 574 00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:32,880 Speaker 1: I know they just got zero points the Raiders. I 575 00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:35,080 Speaker 1: feel like you didn't. You have some crazy stat earlier 576 00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:37,880 Speaker 1: in the year. Yeah, with the Colts mults at zero 577 00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:39,440 Speaker 1: points and then the next week they beat the Chiefs 578 00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:42,680 Speaker 1: out right, You're right like it when it when a team, 579 00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:47,400 Speaker 1: it's basically a stat. Like teams that don't cover and 580 00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:53,040 Speaker 1: get blown out. It's two thousand five cover clip the 581 00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:55,080 Speaker 1: following week. So like to me, I want to be 582 00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:56,920 Speaker 1: all over the Jacks like this. This feels like the 583 00:29:57,040 --> 00:30:01,680 Speaker 1: right time to take them. But every things screams. Raiders 584 00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:04,160 Speaker 1: bounce back against the Jaguars team that simply does not 585 00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,240 Speaker 1: know how to win every game. They have the lead 586 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:10,840 Speaker 1: every game that everything's working for them. Trevor Lawrence, maybe 587 00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:13,440 Speaker 1: it's a maturity. He's just a maturity makes horrible decisions. 588 00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,160 Speaker 1: But like that game, Travisy TM was moving the ball 589 00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:19,280 Speaker 1: up and down the field on that Denver team, incredible runs. 590 00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:22,440 Speaker 1: They still couldn't manage that game, so it is you're 591 00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:24,160 Speaker 1: you're right. That's probably my worst call of the season 592 00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:27,680 Speaker 1: in the year the Jaguars, they've been so disappointed. One 593 00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:30,920 Speaker 1: score games, they just keep losing. So I don't know, 594 00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,000 Speaker 1: I want to take I want to take the Jaguars, 595 00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:35,880 Speaker 1: but it feels like the Raiders is probably the right 596 00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:39,320 Speaker 1: spot here. They'll be heavily bet by the public this week, 597 00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:41,360 Speaker 1: but it feels like, for a good reason, the Jaguars 598 00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,520 Speaker 1: simply suck. They just can't win, and every week they're 599 00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:46,080 Speaker 1: proven to us they just not they don't win, and 600 00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:49,800 Speaker 1: they don't cover. What's your rating on this game right now? 601 00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:53,600 Speaker 1: Having to pick, so again the value is on the Jaguars. 602 00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:56,240 Speaker 1: But it's just like my computer can factor in and 603 00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:58,800 Speaker 1: these guys have the loser mentality, like they just cannot 604 00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:01,160 Speaker 1: finish games and they get so caught up and so 605 00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,960 Speaker 1: antsy um that can't close out games. We're like, again, 606 00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:07,600 Speaker 1: we've seen the Giants were the opposite this year. Every 607 00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:09,920 Speaker 1: close game they seem like they get better and cooler. 608 00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:12,840 Speaker 1: You really gotta beat him by double jigits, double digits 609 00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:15,560 Speaker 1: to beat him this year, So Jaguars are just stay 610 00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:21,240 Speaker 1: away from me, it's so interesting, Like we really thought 611 00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:24,560 Speaker 1: this was gonna be a Trevor Lawrence year, um because 612 00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:28,640 Speaker 1: of Doug Peterson. What if he's not that good? And 613 00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:33,200 Speaker 1: I know where what twenty four games twenty five games 614 00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:37,120 Speaker 1: into his career, but and and and seventeen of those 615 00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:40,520 Speaker 1: were with Urban Meyer. Yeah, they're not that much better 616 00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:43,960 Speaker 1: with Doug Peterson than they were with Urban Meyer. Yeah, 617 00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:47,280 Speaker 1: they're definitely well coached. But I try to do the 618 00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:49,480 Speaker 1: Josh Allen thing now. I'm trying to always give guys 619 00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:53,200 Speaker 1: three years because I really did not see Josh Allen 620 00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:54,920 Speaker 1: to anyone. Did he turned into I thought he would 621 00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:57,200 Speaker 1: be like a Ryan Tannehill, a big, strong athlete that 622 00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:58,680 Speaker 1: can make a good throw right now and then. But 623 00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:01,560 Speaker 1: being the number one, one, number two best quarterback in football. 624 00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:04,640 Speaker 1: I just didn't see coming. So I'm ready to bury, 625 00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:08,560 Speaker 1: uh Mac Jones. I'm ready to bury Trevor Lawrence. Like 626 00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:12,200 Speaker 1: these guys to me, Zach Wilson, they're they're they're not good, 627 00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:14,440 Speaker 1: Like Justin Fields look like the only one that's produced 628 00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:16,880 Speaker 1: that you can see a future with. But it's too early. 629 00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:18,640 Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna keep waiting just I don't look 630 00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:22,400 Speaker 1: like an idiot because this this draft class Drevord turl 631 00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:25,040 Speaker 1: Lawrence coming and had all the accolades. So I'll give 632 00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:27,200 Speaker 1: him the time because he has the body right, He's 633 00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:29,520 Speaker 1: got the arm, he's got the skill. It's right now, 634 00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:34,000 Speaker 1: it's all mental. That's his biggest weakness. 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In 667 00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:20,120 Speaker 1: New York, Tennessee redline is one eight hundred eight eight 668 00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:24,560 Speaker 1: nine eight nine one eight hundred five to hundred in Wyoming, 669 00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:28,880 Speaker 1: or visit www. One eight hundred gambler dot net in 670 00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:33,840 Speaker 1: West Virginia. Reminder, right now our foxholes Bengals minor seven, 671 00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:36,040 Speaker 1: our Simon says is Washington plus three and a half. 672 00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:39,120 Speaker 1: So far, the only game that we really love for 673 00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:41,680 Speaker 1: our final five is Washington plus three and a half 674 00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:48,600 Speaker 1: Bears five point underdogs at home against the visiting Dolphins. 675 00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:52,680 Speaker 1: We don't have a choice. Another game where we have 676 00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:55,400 Speaker 1: to do it. We have to take the Bears. I 677 00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:58,279 Speaker 1: love what I've been seeing from the Bears since the bye, 678 00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:02,600 Speaker 1: and I look, we both we're big on the Cowboys. 679 00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:06,799 Speaker 1: This past week. I came this close and right now 680 00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:11,080 Speaker 1: I'm holding my four finger and my thumb about less 681 00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:16,520 Speaker 1: than a millimeter apart from betting the Cowboys outline of 682 00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:20,040 Speaker 1: minus twenty one at plus three fifty, because that's how 683 00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:23,560 Speaker 1: sure I was the Bears. We're just gonna get tanked 684 00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:27,319 Speaker 1: in this game. But they kept it close. I'm glad 685 00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:31,160 Speaker 1: I didn't bet that outline. They kept coming back, They 686 00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:35,320 Speaker 1: had good opportunities. They beat themselves with fumbles. Justin Fields 687 00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:38,000 Speaker 1: made a stupid mistake by not touching Michael Parsons and 688 00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:41,560 Speaker 1: jumping over him, which Michael Parson's then returned to fumble 689 00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:44,719 Speaker 1: for a touchdown. But they're calling the right place for 690 00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:47,719 Speaker 1: justin fields Like I think this team is getting confident, 691 00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:50,480 Speaker 1: is what I think. And I just like them in 692 00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:53,160 Speaker 1: a position at home and an outdoor and what we're 693 00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:55,400 Speaker 1: hoping for. It might be bad weather again, this is 694 00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:58,320 Speaker 1: on Tuesday. I looked at the weather report. There's supposed 695 00:35:58,320 --> 00:35:59,360 Speaker 1: to be a little bit of raine, supposed to be 696 00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:02,239 Speaker 1: some wind. That favorite is the Bear so heavily in 697 00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:04,480 Speaker 1: this matchup where you want to be running against Miami. 698 00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:06,440 Speaker 1: You can move the ball on the ground against Miami. Again, 699 00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:08,239 Speaker 1: we just saw de Troy move it up and down 700 00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:09,600 Speaker 1: the field on them in the first half and then 701 00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:12,320 Speaker 1: just complete fall apart in the second half. Miami is 702 00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:14,759 Speaker 1: really good, but winning back to back games on the 703 00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:17,680 Speaker 1: road is tough, especially back to back games against teams 704 00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:21,960 Speaker 1: that I think we're undervalued. The Detroit pushed this week. 705 00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:23,799 Speaker 1: We're getting nice, We're getting a good points. I don't 706 00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,759 Speaker 1: think the Bears are that much worse than Detroit, right, Like, 707 00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:29,080 Speaker 1: should this line really be five? No? But they just 708 00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:31,360 Speaker 1: got blown out. They were have one last week or 709 00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:33,160 Speaker 1: kept it close. This line is probably closer to three 710 00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:34,920 Speaker 1: or three and a half, so that's when I have 711 00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:36,799 Speaker 1: it at so I think we're getting two points, two 712 00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:38,640 Speaker 1: and a half points of value. So as I call 713 00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:41,319 Speaker 1: I saw this line come up, I thought, Holy shi it, 714 00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:43,319 Speaker 1: Please don't trade everyone on your team, Bear, so I 715 00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:46,160 Speaker 1: can bet you this week. I like the moves they made, 716 00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:48,520 Speaker 1: like again, we already talked about it, but the fact 717 00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:50,680 Speaker 1: they're bringing Claypool now in as well, like we're expecting 718 00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:52,880 Speaker 1: to play this week, that's great. Like I just like 719 00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:54,719 Speaker 1: the Bears in this matchup and let down spot for 720 00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:57,279 Speaker 1: Miami we'll have on the money line round robin. But 721 00:36:57,320 --> 00:36:59,640 Speaker 1: this feels like Miami wins by three or whoever wins 722 00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:02,400 Speaker 1: this game is by field goal. Just a close, sloppy 723 00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:05,560 Speaker 1: battle for Miami on the road here. I hate doing 724 00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:10,960 Speaker 1: this because I hate when I tie my emotional favorites 725 00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:15,560 Speaker 1: to my decisions on this podcast. But it's got to 726 00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:20,000 Speaker 1: be an exact decision, the choice between the unthinkable and 727 00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:26,839 Speaker 1: the impossible? Are you with? Exec executive decision? When I 728 00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:29,680 Speaker 1: opened up the odds for the week and I was 729 00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:33,040 Speaker 1: thinking about the games, the games that immediately stood out 730 00:37:33,400 --> 00:37:38,359 Speaker 1: Washington plus three and a half Bears plus five. Immediately 731 00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:40,200 Speaker 1: looked at those and thought, and there are some other 732 00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:42,200 Speaker 1: ones that we're gonna get to, but of the ones 733 00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:44,200 Speaker 1: we've talked about, I think this has to go on 734 00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:48,080 Speaker 1: our our final five list. Two. Yeah. Again, it's one 735 00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:51,000 Speaker 1: of my favorite dogs this week. Yep, alright, guess what 736 00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:55,840 Speaker 1: exact decision I have made? An exact Chad has made 737 00:37:56,320 --> 00:38:00,520 Speaker 1: an executive decision on the Bears, which I hate doing. 738 00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:03,759 Speaker 1: Oh my god, Oh my god, because I got like 739 00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:06,359 Speaker 1: four text chains about the Bears that happened on Sunday, 740 00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:08,880 Speaker 1: and it is going to be miserable when I have 741 00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:13,360 Speaker 1: to be emotionally and financially psychically invested in this team. 742 00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:17,480 Speaker 1: Jesus Christ, that sucks less. It drops only the three, 743 00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:21,759 Speaker 1: I just can't see it's not having in the contest. Well, 744 00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:25,720 Speaker 1: it's not gonna drop to three in the next hours 745 00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:29,919 Speaker 1: just because of Chase claypool Um Packers on the road 746 00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:32,880 Speaker 1: three and a half point favorites at the Lions. Lions 747 00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:38,320 Speaker 1: this morning traded t J. Hockenson fired their defensive backs coach. 748 00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:41,759 Speaker 1: I don't know what the numbers are because I'm meant 749 00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:47,160 Speaker 1: to look them up. I would be hard pressed to 750 00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:55,000 Speaker 1: believe that a team converted more third and longs ten 751 00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:58,399 Speaker 1: or more than the Dolphins did against the Lions at 752 00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:04,120 Speaker 1: any point this season. Now their defense sucks and like, Wad, Yeah, 753 00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:06,279 Speaker 1: and I just feel bad for you, check because every 754 00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:07,800 Speaker 1: week you just wanna keep taking them because it is 755 00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:11,000 Speaker 1: good numbers every week. But we talked about like this team, 756 00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:13,680 Speaker 1: not that that they quit on their head coach. There's 757 00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:16,440 Speaker 1: just something missing there. There's something wrong and this team 758 00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:19,560 Speaker 1: can't keep games close and just bad decisions. Jared Golf 759 00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:22,279 Speaker 1: fourth and two, you need two yards, buddy, and then 760 00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:24,080 Speaker 1: you can take four shots in a row at the 761 00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:26,480 Speaker 1: end zone said he throws a bomb on fourth and two. 762 00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:28,800 Speaker 1: They never Yeah, they never get the ball back. Games 763 00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:32,319 Speaker 1: over so bad coaching dream scenario Like if I was 764 00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:34,319 Speaker 1: the owner at this point, you've already kept them, let 765 00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:37,200 Speaker 1: him go this long Campbell right it out, you're gonna 766 00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:39,560 Speaker 1: get Now, You're you're gonna guarantee yourself the top three, 767 00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:43,120 Speaker 1: top four pick in a QB heavy draft because golf 768 00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:45,960 Speaker 1: started out great, but we've seen what he is, right, Chad, Like, 769 00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:48,920 Speaker 1: we all know what golf is. So yes, me and 770 00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:51,000 Speaker 1: Chad would love to take this number. This is the 771 00:39:51,080 --> 00:39:53,279 Speaker 1: right time to take Detroit, a team that can run 772 00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:55,280 Speaker 1: the ball against a Green Bay team that cannot stop 773 00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:58,000 Speaker 1: the run if their lives depended on it. So we'll 774 00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:01,560 Speaker 1: get burned maybe, But I how do I not take Detroit? 775 00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:05,120 Speaker 1: This is just two two bad teams and in a 776 00:40:05,160 --> 00:40:08,520 Speaker 1: bad division. I take the home dog rooms every time. 777 00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:10,480 Speaker 1: And the fact that it's three and a half, I'll 778 00:40:10,520 --> 00:40:13,120 Speaker 1: get sucked in. I'll take that number. One bit of news. 779 00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:16,200 Speaker 1: DeAndre Swift not likely to get a lot of carres. 780 00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:20,480 Speaker 1: You and I both love DeAndre Swift over rushing yards. 781 00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:23,200 Speaker 1: Got a little banged up, had maybe one or two 782 00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:27,440 Speaker 1: carries at the most touchdown, got hurt. Yeah, not expected 783 00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:32,640 Speaker 1: to uh, not expected to participate? Uh or I think 784 00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:34,400 Speaker 1: Dan Campbell said this morning on his radio show he 785 00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:37,480 Speaker 1: might not be playing. Um so if that's true, then 786 00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:39,399 Speaker 1: we probably wouldn't have him in the contest. We saw 787 00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:41,839 Speaker 1: once he was out that second half they just did 788 00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:44,479 Speaker 1: nothing on all offense. Yeah, we can't. We can't count 789 00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:48,399 Speaker 1: on DeAndre Swift. Another one. We're gonna get sucked in here. 790 00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:53,160 Speaker 1: Chargers visiting Atlanta. The Falcons plus three and a half, 791 00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:58,480 Speaker 1: the NFC South leading Falcons. They have one game up 792 00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:02,359 Speaker 1: on the Tampa Bay bucket years in New Orleans Saints. Hey, 793 00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:06,440 Speaker 1: let's take a flashback to our NFC South Preview episode 794 00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:10,439 Speaker 1: from August. Well, what do you want to say about 795 00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:14,120 Speaker 1: your favorite team in the Falcons one to win the division? 796 00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:17,160 Speaker 1: Four and a half? Is it a win total? And 797 00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:19,280 Speaker 1: the only reason we like them is because they're twenty 798 00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:21,680 Speaker 1: eight to one that win the division? Way too big. 799 00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:24,719 Speaker 1: Atlanta is just left for debt. There's no hype. It's 800 00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:27,640 Speaker 1: just gross. That's where I coming. It's too big, Like 801 00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:30,320 Speaker 1: Atlanta should not be twenty to one to win this division. 802 00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:33,040 Speaker 1: I'm fine with putting a hundred bucks Torg bucks on 803 00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:35,680 Speaker 1: this kind of bet. You know, come December there are 804 00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:37,480 Speaker 1: one or two games back, I can hedge out of it. 805 00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:40,600 Speaker 1: Like they're just not one to win this division? Bad 806 00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:45,560 Speaker 1: the Falcons plus three and a half. I mean, we 807 00:41:45,560 --> 00:41:47,439 Speaker 1: don't have a choice. Like, again, this is probably gonna 808 00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:49,200 Speaker 1: be in our big balls better the week, So all 809 00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:51,839 Speaker 1: the people listening live, you're gonnahead start here, grab it 810 00:41:51,920 --> 00:41:55,279 Speaker 1: and grab it. Atlanta. I don't know how they do it. 811 00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:58,680 Speaker 1: They keep all these games close. The Chargers they like 812 00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:01,360 Speaker 1: to play in close games, they're just they they're they're oftense. 813 00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:04,080 Speaker 1: Seems like it's complete dysfunctional, while Atlanta knows exactly who 814 00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:07,360 Speaker 1: they are and what they need to do every game. So, um, 815 00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:09,440 Speaker 1: one of these dogs will go along this week and 816 00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:11,680 Speaker 1: maybe I'll back off. As I talked to other pros, 817 00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:14,520 Speaker 1: but as soon as this line came out at three, 818 00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:17,000 Speaker 1: I thought that was a nice gift. It's just the 819 00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:19,839 Speaker 1: public wants the Chargers to be good. They want them 820 00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:22,319 Speaker 1: to be good, they want them to win everything. When 821 00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:25,480 Speaker 1: they played the Seahawks, like I, everyone got off to them. 822 00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:27,560 Speaker 1: But back to Seahawks and Seahawks beat them as a 823 00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:29,320 Speaker 1: big dog. I think it was like a five point 824 00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:32,319 Speaker 1: four and a half point dog. So looking at this 825 00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:34,600 Speaker 1: Chargers team, they could have gotten things right during the 826 00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:37,160 Speaker 1: bye week. I'm willing to pay to see it. So 827 00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:38,600 Speaker 1: you're giving me three and a half with the land 828 00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:40,920 Speaker 1: at home again, I'm on a bunch of dogs this 829 00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:43,600 Speaker 1: week at home. It just seems like good numbers. I'll 830 00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:45,480 Speaker 1: let the book suck me and I'll take those numbers. 831 00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:47,560 Speaker 1: Let the public just bet the Chargers. That's what the 832 00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:50,600 Speaker 1: public should do. They'll they'll take the Chargers here. As 833 00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:53,319 Speaker 1: we're talking. The line moved from three and a half 834 00:42:53,360 --> 00:43:00,359 Speaker 1: to three. You're moving lines on this show. We still 835 00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:03,320 Speaker 1: like it at three. Al right, Yeah, I'm interested to 836 00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:05,719 Speaker 1: get your take on this one because this next one, 837 00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:09,160 Speaker 1: Seattle is on the road at the Cardinals two point underdogs. 838 00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:11,080 Speaker 1: It was two and a half. This morning. You and 839 00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:13,920 Speaker 1: I were on Green Dot Daily. Check it out noon 840 00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:17,640 Speaker 1: Eastern at Action Network HQ in the Free Action Network 841 00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:21,040 Speaker 1: app around YouTube. It's the show for Action Network fans 842 00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:24,360 Speaker 1: where we set the betting agenda for the day for 843 00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:27,280 Speaker 1: the week. Uh. Simon and I are on Tuesdays at noon, 844 00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:30,239 Speaker 1: first off the block. We talked about some games that 845 00:43:30,280 --> 00:43:33,839 Speaker 1: we like. I mentioned Seattle plus two and I liked 846 00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:37,440 Speaker 1: it too. About one it was. I mentioned two and 847 00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:39,719 Speaker 1: a half. It opened the three. It's down to two 848 00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:42,879 Speaker 1: and a half now too. You agree or disagree, we're 849 00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:45,359 Speaker 1: both blinded by the light. We love Seattle. They've been 850 00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:47,200 Speaker 1: good to us, Like we almost put them in the 851 00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:48,680 Speaker 1: contest in my US three and a half because we 852 00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:51,640 Speaker 1: just liked them that much. They're good. They're just a 853 00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:54,440 Speaker 1: good team. Gino is good right now. Like the passes 854 00:43:54,480 --> 00:43:56,759 Speaker 1: he had to lock it were incredible. His deep ball 855 00:43:56,840 --> 00:43:59,279 Speaker 1: is really good. Even DK Metcalf, who was banged up, 856 00:43:59,800 --> 00:44:02,560 Speaker 1: was making a huge place for them. I think Kenneth Walker, 857 00:44:02,600 --> 00:44:04,560 Speaker 1: the running back, has just been a lading rod for them, 858 00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:07,400 Speaker 1: Like the guy is really hard to break down, tackle 859 00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:11,960 Speaker 1: and breakdown. So everything Chad's gonna say it's true about Seattle. 860 00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:13,919 Speaker 1: I wanted to take them around. They opened up three. 861 00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:16,239 Speaker 1: I did throw a little bit on it because it 862 00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:18,520 Speaker 1: was like, Okay, this is a good number. How can 863 00:44:18,560 --> 00:44:21,600 Speaker 1: I not I don't know what to do. I don't 864 00:44:21,600 --> 00:44:23,120 Speaker 1: know what to do here, Chad. It feels like I'm 865 00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:27,880 Speaker 1: being sucked in on. Here's what we know. We know 866 00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:31,480 Speaker 1: that defensively, they're relatively the same. You look at yards 867 00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:37,160 Speaker 1: per carry, same bracket, yards pertempt, defensively passing, same bracket. 868 00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:43,560 Speaker 1: Seahawks are just so superior offensively right now? Uh with 869 00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:48,200 Speaker 1: with a quarterback statistically on the stats that matter, looking 870 00:44:48,200 --> 00:44:52,239 Speaker 1: inside yards per attempt, offensively, yards percary, they're crushing it. 871 00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:54,680 Speaker 1: You know, Kenneth Walker is going to rin Rookie of 872 00:44:54,680 --> 00:44:56,760 Speaker 1: the Year at this point. He was amazing against the Giants. 873 00:44:57,680 --> 00:44:59,719 Speaker 1: The bookmakers got lazy and they opened the Cardinals of 874 00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:02,200 Speaker 1: Mine three because it was a divisional game between two, two, 875 00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:04,399 Speaker 1: they think or even, and they made them three point 876 00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:07,480 Speaker 1: favorites at home, and that's not the right side against 877 00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:09,920 Speaker 1: the people. Like right now, I'm on Seattle. Let me 878 00:45:09,960 --> 00:45:12,640 Speaker 1: talk to let me talk to the boys and find 879 00:45:12,680 --> 00:45:14,360 Speaker 1: out Me and Chat are stepping in one because this 880 00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:16,200 Speaker 1: feels too easy. I'm with Chat, Like right when I 881 00:45:16,200 --> 00:45:18,719 Speaker 1: saw that plus three, I grabbed it, not shocked at all. 882 00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:21,120 Speaker 1: Got down to two just makes me a little worried, right, 883 00:45:21,200 --> 00:45:22,440 Speaker 1: dropped down to one and a a half, and a lot 884 00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:25,520 Speaker 1: offshore books, a lot of respected books shout right up 885 00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:27,799 Speaker 1: to two and a half. So clearly a group has 886 00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:31,840 Speaker 1: made uh statement here taking Cardinals, I am buying it either, 887 00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:34,120 Speaker 1: Like again, I want to take Seattle here, so like 888 00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:36,000 Speaker 1: the number, We're gonna wait and see on this one. 889 00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:40,200 Speaker 1: The Los Angeles Rams are on the road at the 890 00:45:40,239 --> 00:45:45,440 Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are two and a half point favorites. 891 00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:50,919 Speaker 1: Oh boy, oh boy, oh boy. Breaking news literally as 892 00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:57,840 Speaker 1: we speak, the Broncos are trading Bradley Chubb too the 893 00:45:58,239 --> 00:46:04,600 Speaker 1: Dolphins for a package that includes first round pick Bradley 894 00:46:04,680 --> 00:46:07,040 Speaker 1: Chub will be playing for the Dolphins this weekend against 895 00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:10,439 Speaker 1: against the Chicago Bears. Does this change how we feel 896 00:46:11,760 --> 00:46:16,480 Speaker 1: as the Bears plus five. Definitely, you're just rushing the quarterback. 897 00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:18,799 Speaker 1: That's all you gotta do. And the Bears offensive line 898 00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:21,000 Speaker 1: is terrible. No, it's a good that's a great move 899 00:46:21,080 --> 00:46:23,680 Speaker 1: for Miami. Um, but now I don't. I don't think 900 00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:25,520 Speaker 1: it changed my opinion at all. Hopefully gets us the 901 00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:28,319 Speaker 1: six that'd be nice. UM give us the public does 902 00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:31,600 Speaker 1: like that, gives us a little bump. Um. I love 903 00:46:31,680 --> 00:46:33,799 Speaker 1: it for Miami. That's a that's a key thing they've 904 00:46:33,800 --> 00:46:36,960 Speaker 1: been missing as pass for so uh in that division 905 00:46:37,080 --> 00:46:40,080 Speaker 1: where you have Josh Allen love the move. Great great, 906 00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:42,520 Speaker 1: great trade and a guy you want to pay like 907 00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:43,880 Speaker 1: that's a guy you don't mind the head of on 908 00:46:43,880 --> 00:46:46,439 Speaker 1: your team long term. So smart move by the front 909 00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:48,279 Speaker 1: office of Miami. Yeah. I don't mind giving up a 910 00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:51,719 Speaker 1: first round pick though they gotta take it away for 911 00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:54,560 Speaker 1: the Brady thing. But who knows, Maybe it's next year 912 00:46:54,560 --> 00:46:57,160 Speaker 1: they lost their own. This is the one they had 913 00:46:57,200 --> 00:46:59,759 Speaker 1: from San Francisco one from the to the pick that 914 00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:03,359 Speaker 1: San France. Wow, smart play. I think it's a great play. 915 00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:06,000 Speaker 1: Like Chubb is a known quantity, he's not old pass 916 00:47:06,080 --> 00:47:08,680 Speaker 1: rushers like you can see them playing later under the 917 00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:12,319 Speaker 1: careers being really effective. It's a it's a great move. 918 00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:13,880 Speaker 1: I'm still going to be with the Bears in my 919 00:47:14,239 --> 00:47:17,840 Speaker 1: exact decision. I'm still gonna have the Bears in the contest. 920 00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:20,839 Speaker 1: Hope we can get a better number. Bucks minus two 921 00:47:20,840 --> 00:47:25,080 Speaker 1: and a half against the Rams. Yes, please give me 922 00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:29,560 Speaker 1: Tom Brady in a desperate, desperate spot for less than 923 00:47:29,560 --> 00:47:32,600 Speaker 1: a field goal against a team that cannot move the ball. 924 00:47:33,320 --> 00:47:37,080 Speaker 1: Cooper Cup is now day to day. Allen Robinson continues 925 00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:41,360 Speaker 1: to be a challenge. Van Jefferson was non existent. Uh, 926 00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:44,399 Speaker 1: and this offensive line is as dreadful as the one 927 00:47:44,400 --> 00:47:49,399 Speaker 1: they're playing against. Sure, two broken teams. I guess we'll 928 00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:53,719 Speaker 1: take the Bucks at home. Um, just got no confidence. 929 00:47:53,760 --> 00:47:56,680 Speaker 1: This team literally just got dominated by the Ravens the 930 00:47:56,680 --> 00:47:59,160 Speaker 1: second half. And the Ravens didn't have anybody. They lost 931 00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:01,920 Speaker 1: Mark Andrews, they didn't have their top receiver and their 932 00:48:02,000 --> 00:48:06,440 Speaker 1: number one running back Baltimore still dominated them. So the 933 00:48:06,480 --> 00:48:09,120 Speaker 1: Bucks are They're bad And like me and I had 934 00:48:09,160 --> 00:48:11,480 Speaker 1: just talked earlier, we don't even feel comfortable betting them 935 00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:13,640 Speaker 1: to win their division right now, even though it's only 936 00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:17,200 Speaker 1: whatever minus one thirty minus one fifty. It's like I 937 00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:19,400 Speaker 1: don't know. I just don't know what to think of 938 00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:20,840 Speaker 1: this team. I feel like there's still a lot of 939 00:48:20,840 --> 00:48:24,759 Speaker 1: bleeding left. So I'll take Tampa. But you really would 940 00:48:24,800 --> 00:48:26,400 Speaker 1: have to convince me Sunday morning if you want to 941 00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:27,799 Speaker 1: get this one. And like, I really have to hear 942 00:48:27,800 --> 00:48:30,040 Speaker 1: from other people and from Chad where it's like, Okay, 943 00:48:30,320 --> 00:48:32,080 Speaker 1: I see what these guys are doing, because to me, 944 00:48:32,920 --> 00:48:34,879 Speaker 1: it feels like I'm just playing a fade on the Rams, 945 00:48:34,880 --> 00:48:37,319 Speaker 1: and I just think the Rams are even more broken. Um, 946 00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:40,200 Speaker 1: that's why I take Tampa. But just diving into the numbers, 947 00:48:40,880 --> 00:48:43,200 Speaker 1: Aaron Donald could kill Brady. Like again, this could just 948 00:48:43,200 --> 00:48:46,600 Speaker 1: be an easy underbet for us, UM and everyone else listening. 949 00:48:46,800 --> 00:48:48,120 Speaker 1: You don't have to take a side. But if I 950 00:48:48,120 --> 00:48:51,320 Speaker 1: had to take a side, I'm with Chad. I take Tampa. 951 00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:53,880 Speaker 1: Here in the spot. I think it'll be an interesting 952 00:48:53,880 --> 00:48:56,480 Speaker 1: conversation for us on Sunday. I don't know that we're 953 00:48:56,520 --> 00:49:04,319 Speaker 1: gonna love all right. Now. We have Washington, the Bears, Detroit, Atlanta, Seattle, 954 00:49:04,760 --> 00:49:08,120 Speaker 1: all short dogs, and I think on Sunday we're gonna 955 00:49:08,160 --> 00:49:09,719 Speaker 1: look at the Bucks. And they thought about it a 956 00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:12,759 Speaker 1: little bit more and think all right at home, there's 957 00:49:12,840 --> 00:49:15,280 Speaker 1: less than a field goal. These are two bad teams. 958 00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:18,319 Speaker 1: If it were two bad teams that we didn't have 959 00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:21,239 Speaker 1: biases against, we'd be taking the home team at less 960 00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:24,560 Speaker 1: than a field goal. It's true, now I have no 961 00:49:24,719 --> 00:49:26,920 Speaker 1: bias here. It's just like you just said, it's just 962 00:49:27,000 --> 00:49:29,840 Speaker 1: like a really stinky play. Like we're just playing strictly 963 00:49:29,880 --> 00:49:31,920 Speaker 1: the numbers, trying not to think about this game at all, 964 00:49:31,960 --> 00:49:34,400 Speaker 1: which I'm a big believer in. So yeah, you might 965 00:49:34,400 --> 00:49:38,320 Speaker 1: put it convincement. Titans on the road twelve and a 966 00:49:38,320 --> 00:49:43,560 Speaker 1: ha points underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs. Got a 967 00:49:43,640 --> 00:49:47,920 Speaker 1: text from a buddy called Snoop. Snoopy the dog Tennessee. 968 00:49:48,000 --> 00:49:50,399 Speaker 1: So we gotta take Tennessee this week, So me'll talk 969 00:49:50,480 --> 00:49:53,359 Speaker 1: about it. I don't know what to do, like i'd 970 00:49:53,440 --> 00:49:55,719 Speaker 1: hear more from people. They love Tennessee. Why first of all, 971 00:49:55,760 --> 00:49:58,160 Speaker 1: this number I like Tennessee, the fact that it's a 972 00:49:58,239 --> 00:50:02,040 Speaker 1: huge number for the Chiefs at home them Historically they 973 00:50:02,120 --> 00:50:03,960 Speaker 1: let teams hang in us. I mean I can even 974 00:50:04,040 --> 00:50:05,719 Speaker 1: all time, and I can think of Jordan's Loves game 975 00:50:05,800 --> 00:50:09,040 Speaker 1: with Green Bay. Like that game Jordan Love might complete 976 00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:11,799 Speaker 1: a five passes. They somehow covered the eleven half spread 977 00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:14,880 Speaker 1: wherever it was that Green Bay was. I don't know 978 00:50:14,920 --> 00:50:17,400 Speaker 1: what to do. Like the Chiefs historically don't perform well 979 00:50:17,440 --> 00:50:20,480 Speaker 1: as big favorites. Um, there's usually a spot you go 980 00:50:20,520 --> 00:50:23,000 Speaker 1: the other way. So the fact that a pro text 981 00:50:23,040 --> 00:50:25,920 Speaker 1: me mid show that we need to talk about Tennessee, 982 00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:28,399 Speaker 1: you know, makes me know where the pros are at. 983 00:50:28,600 --> 00:50:30,200 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna be surprised. You're in the sharp calls. 984 00:50:30,200 --> 00:50:32,840 Speaker 1: A lot of pros are gonna be on Tennessee. I 985 00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:34,880 Speaker 1: don't know, don't feel comfortable, don't So maybe that's even 986 00:50:34,960 --> 00:50:38,520 Speaker 1: more reason of doing it. Because we leak just could 987 00:50:38,560 --> 00:50:41,120 Speaker 1: not move the ball in Houston. Houston's defense is much 988 00:50:41,200 --> 00:50:44,640 Speaker 1: worse than this Chief's defenses. And this is arrowhead, right, 989 00:50:44,719 --> 00:50:46,959 Speaker 1: So it's a lot to put it on a rookie 990 00:50:47,040 --> 00:50:50,800 Speaker 1: qb Um. Maybe it's just the fact that Derrick Henry 991 00:50:50,880 --> 00:50:52,880 Speaker 1: King Henry right now is looking like the best running 992 00:50:52,880 --> 00:50:55,280 Speaker 1: back and football doing it all. Maybe Christian mccaffres shouldn't 993 00:50:55,320 --> 00:50:58,320 Speaker 1: say that. Uh man, that's a tough one. Chat. What 994 00:50:58,360 --> 00:50:59,920 Speaker 1: are you thinking of this one? Are we going tend 995 00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:03,080 Speaker 1: to see here? Yeah, we're totally going with Tennessee here. 996 00:51:03,080 --> 00:51:06,640 Speaker 1: It's uh where you just mentioned by the way, you 997 00:51:06,640 --> 00:51:08,920 Speaker 1: didn't want to pull the trigger on Tampa to win 998 00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:12,040 Speaker 1: the NFC South. So again he Simon is talking about 999 00:51:12,080 --> 00:51:16,120 Speaker 1: on Green Dot Daily. This morning, we talked about, um, 1000 00:51:16,239 --> 00:51:17,920 Speaker 1: the picks that we were looking at, and then we 1001 00:51:18,000 --> 00:51:20,520 Speaker 1: talked about at this point in the year, in the 1002 00:51:20,600 --> 00:51:24,400 Speaker 1: NFC South, the Falcons are in first, the box are 1003 00:51:24,400 --> 00:51:29,040 Speaker 1: in second, and in the NFC NFC what was the 1004 00:51:29,040 --> 00:51:34,200 Speaker 1: other division? It was West, the Seahawks were in first 1005 00:51:34,200 --> 00:51:36,440 Speaker 1: and the Niners were in second. So we're talking about, like, 1006 00:51:36,480 --> 00:51:38,879 Speaker 1: if you're buying futures on the division, who do you buy. 1007 00:51:38,960 --> 00:51:40,879 Speaker 1: We both wanted to hold on the box and buy 1008 00:51:40,960 --> 00:51:47,360 Speaker 1: the Niners. Um, but uh, I think I saw. I 1009 00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:50,120 Speaker 1: looked at this this morning and thinking about today's events 1010 00:51:50,120 --> 00:51:55,680 Speaker 1: and was like, yeah, I think we're gonna bet the Titans. Yeah. Again, 1011 00:51:55,680 --> 00:51:57,759 Speaker 1: it just feels like a situational play in a huge 1012 00:51:57,840 --> 00:52:00,600 Speaker 1: number You've seen ybel get its team up for these 1013 00:52:00,680 --> 00:52:02,960 Speaker 1: kind of games, like the defenses plays for him in 1014 00:52:03,000 --> 00:52:05,680 Speaker 1: these spots. So we could have Pine in our face, 1015 00:52:05,719 --> 00:52:08,200 Speaker 1: mitcha and we're down twenty eight nothing and there's zero 1016 00:52:08,280 --> 00:52:10,080 Speaker 1: chance that tennise you could come back in a game 1017 00:52:10,160 --> 00:52:12,400 Speaker 1: like that. But we're hoping for is a thirteen to 1018 00:52:12,480 --> 00:52:14,319 Speaker 1: ten half at half or something like that. Just a 1019 00:52:14,320 --> 00:52:16,960 Speaker 1: game that's sloppy and tennis you can keep close, and 1020 00:52:17,000 --> 00:52:18,880 Speaker 1: that's the game that they're gonna try to play. So 1021 00:52:19,280 --> 00:52:22,160 Speaker 1: Big Number already got Prose texting me about dur Our 1022 00:52:22,239 --> 00:52:24,719 Speaker 1: Live Show. It's probably a smart move, So I'll just 1023 00:52:24,760 --> 00:52:26,960 Speaker 1: shut up and agree with chat and take that number. 1024 00:52:36,080 --> 00:52:39,319 Speaker 1: The Ravens with ro Kwan Smith two and a half 1025 00:52:39,320 --> 00:52:44,120 Speaker 1: point favorites on the road at the Saints. Look. Last 1026 00:52:44,120 --> 00:52:47,560 Speaker 1: week we talked about this. The Saints were two and 1027 00:52:47,560 --> 00:52:51,640 Speaker 1: a half point underdogs. Two point underdogs. We initially love 1028 00:52:51,719 --> 00:52:53,959 Speaker 1: the Raiders. The wise guys told us in our Sharp 1029 00:52:54,000 --> 00:52:56,920 Speaker 1: Call segment that the Saints were to play. They couldn't 1030 00:52:56,920 --> 00:52:59,799 Speaker 1: have been more right. Yeah, now they were right, and like, 1031 00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:01,400 Speaker 1: and that's what I feel like, Chad, I feel like 1032 00:53:01,400 --> 00:53:03,840 Speaker 1: a dummy. I try to think I'm smarter than these guys. 1033 00:53:05,040 --> 00:53:06,839 Speaker 1: It wasn't. I was an idiot. I lost a bunch 1034 00:53:06,880 --> 00:53:08,760 Speaker 1: of money on that they had zero points to Raiders. 1035 00:53:08,840 --> 00:53:12,320 Speaker 1: That was truly embarrassing. So yeah, I should I should 1036 00:53:12,320 --> 00:53:14,319 Speaker 1: probably back the Saints here, right, this is probably gonna 1037 00:53:14,320 --> 00:53:16,320 Speaker 1: be the sharp play this week back, the Saints is 1038 00:53:16,360 --> 00:53:19,680 Speaker 1: a dog at home against a Ravens team that has 1039 00:53:19,719 --> 00:53:22,480 Speaker 1: a bunch of injuries like that, Mark Andrew's injuries a 1040 00:53:22,560 --> 00:53:27,600 Speaker 1: real problem. That guy can't go through Number Bateman's out right. 1041 00:53:27,719 --> 00:53:31,279 Speaker 1: So I love they're making moves for their defense. The 1042 00:53:31,280 --> 00:53:33,400 Speaker 1: issue might be the offense for them right now. And 1043 00:53:33,520 --> 00:53:36,040 Speaker 1: we just saw the Saints. It looks like they're gonna 1044 00:53:36,080 --> 00:53:39,040 Speaker 1: keep Kamara. Like again, we're sitting here before the trade deadline. 1045 00:53:39,080 --> 00:53:40,839 Speaker 1: We don't know what his future holds. But if they 1046 00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:43,400 Speaker 1: keep him, yeah, I'll take the Saints. I don't know 1047 00:53:43,440 --> 00:53:45,080 Speaker 1: if I'll be one of our five because it's not 1048 00:53:45,120 --> 00:53:48,439 Speaker 1: a great number. I'd rather get it in three. But yeah, 1049 00:53:48,560 --> 00:53:51,560 Speaker 1: the Saints at home on a prime time game. That 1050 00:53:51,600 --> 00:53:54,400 Speaker 1: fan base, you know they're gonna be going crazy. Ravens 1051 00:53:54,440 --> 00:53:56,320 Speaker 1: have had a nice run here, right, they put together 1052 00:53:56,360 --> 00:53:59,080 Speaker 1: some some good wins. Here feels a gonta let down 1053 00:53:59,080 --> 00:54:02,280 Speaker 1: spot back to back road games for them. Uh, usually 1054 00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:06,560 Speaker 1: a trip up on the second one. I I'm surprised 1055 00:54:06,960 --> 00:54:08,920 Speaker 1: right at this number. I would make this closer to 1056 00:54:08,960 --> 00:54:11,319 Speaker 1: a pick. So it's gonna just you talk to other 1057 00:54:11,360 --> 00:54:12,960 Speaker 1: guys with their pros and see if they're back in 1058 00:54:13,080 --> 00:54:15,000 Speaker 1: Ravens because this numbers moved, right. I think it was 1059 00:54:15,040 --> 00:54:17,000 Speaker 1: one one and a half. Now it's up to two 1060 00:54:17,080 --> 00:54:20,120 Speaker 1: two and a half. Um, someone's taking a position on it. 1061 00:54:20,320 --> 00:54:24,120 Speaker 1: But yeah, got instinct. The numbers say, like my model 1062 00:54:24,160 --> 00:54:26,879 Speaker 1: says everything, you take the Saints in this prime time spot. 1063 00:54:26,920 --> 00:54:28,680 Speaker 1: It's kind of like Cleveland last week. Right. We just 1064 00:54:29,080 --> 00:54:31,239 Speaker 1: we're taking the ugly dog in a prime time spot 1065 00:54:31,280 --> 00:54:33,320 Speaker 1: because you're getting a good number, because the public is 1066 00:54:33,320 --> 00:54:36,279 Speaker 1: just gonna bet the favorite. We've a lot of We've 1067 00:54:36,280 --> 00:54:38,600 Speaker 1: had a lot of news this show. The Bears traded 1068 00:54:38,680 --> 00:54:41,719 Speaker 1: for Chase Claypool. The Bears also happened to be our 1069 00:54:41,760 --> 00:54:45,399 Speaker 1: executive decision and one of our favorite five so far. 1070 00:54:45,520 --> 00:54:50,279 Speaker 1: At plus five, foxholds the Bengals minus seven. I didn't 1071 00:54:50,280 --> 00:54:52,520 Speaker 1: put the Bengals in our favorite five though, which I 1072 00:54:52,520 --> 00:54:56,680 Speaker 1: should Bengals minus seven, Simon says, is Washington plus three 1073 00:54:56,719 --> 00:55:02,080 Speaker 1: and a half. Um, The Broncos have traded Chase clayp 1074 00:55:02,520 --> 00:55:05,520 Speaker 1: traded Bradley Chubb to the to the Miami Dolphins for 1075 00:55:05,520 --> 00:55:11,520 Speaker 1: a first round pick. Uh so that's exciting. UM. Reminder 1076 00:55:12,400 --> 00:55:17,960 Speaker 1: that uh for everybody listening, we are headed to Lexington Kentucky. 1077 00:55:18,080 --> 00:55:22,560 Speaker 1: This week, we'll have our normal Best Bets episode available 1078 00:55:22,560 --> 00:55:25,759 Speaker 1: Thursday night Friday morning. UM, just like we always do 1079 00:55:25,840 --> 00:55:28,400 Speaker 1: for those who want to listen to that Thursday episode 1080 00:55:28,440 --> 00:55:32,360 Speaker 1: on AMP. As long as the flights for Me, Matt Mitchell, 1081 00:55:32,400 --> 00:55:36,799 Speaker 1: and Simon Hunter cooperate, we will record that episode live 1082 00:55:36,880 --> 00:55:40,480 Speaker 1: at three Eastern. We're all gonna be in the same 1083 00:55:40,480 --> 00:55:44,720 Speaker 1: hotel recording that episode three Eastern Thursday afternoon. Friday afternoon, 1084 00:55:44,719 --> 00:55:47,960 Speaker 1: we'll have a bonus episode from Radio row A, Keenland, 1085 00:55:48,000 --> 00:55:51,000 Speaker 1: if anyone's in anyone is in the area, come visit us. 1086 00:55:51,320 --> 00:55:57,920 Speaker 1: That's one pm Eastern Radio Row on Friday from Keenland. UM, 1087 00:55:58,200 --> 00:56:01,920 Speaker 1: we'll get that one turned round right away, so podcast 1088 00:56:02,000 --> 00:56:04,440 Speaker 1: listeners should see it in their feeds by four or 1089 00:56:04,480 --> 00:56:08,480 Speaker 1: five pm on Friday. Lots of moving parts. That episode 1090 00:56:09,520 --> 00:56:12,240 Speaker 1: will not be on APP. The one pm Eastern episode 1091 00:56:12,239 --> 00:56:14,680 Speaker 1: on Friday will not be on AMP. It feels like 1092 00:56:14,680 --> 00:56:17,600 Speaker 1: I got it all right, Matt Mitchell. That's right. If 1093 00:56:17,600 --> 00:56:19,640 Speaker 1: you're in Lexa to Kentucky, we'd love to see you 1094 00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:25,480 Speaker 1: either live at Keitland on Friday afternoon or Thursday night 1095 00:56:25,800 --> 00:56:31,080 Speaker 1: out at one of stuck Ees Lovely Wife's Bars. Stagger 1096 00:56:31,200 --> 00:56:36,160 Speaker 1: in or two Keys on Thursday night, or just see 1097 00:56:36,200 --> 00:56:39,680 Speaker 1: me and Simon somewhere stumbling around on Friday night. Maybe 1098 00:56:39,680 --> 00:56:42,120 Speaker 1: we'll convince Chad to day. Probably not, though, all right, 1099 00:56:42,960 --> 00:56:44,600 Speaker 1: I think we've said it all. This has been the 1100 00:56:44,640 --> 00:56:47,920 Speaker 1: favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Mellman. 1101 00:56:48,040 --> 00:56:51,440 Speaker 1: He is Simon Hunter. Our producer is Matt Mitchell. Download 1102 00:56:51,440 --> 00:56:54,279 Speaker 1: the podcast from Apple Podcast, from Spotify, wherever you get 1103 00:56:54,280 --> 00:56:58,279 Speaker 1: your podcasts. Don't forget rate review, subscribe to leave us 1104 00:56:58,320 --> 00:57:01,320 Speaker 1: five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is gift. Until 1105 00:57:02,320 --> 00:57:07,160 Speaker 1: next time. I love you, m