1
00:00:01,520 --> 00:00:16,599
Speaker 1: And hey everybody, welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast.

2
00:00:16,640 --> 00:00:19,400
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris. It is time to take

3
00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:23,319
Speaker 1: an early look at the week eleven NFL lines. To

4
00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:27,000
Speaker 1: do that with me today is Brendan Tuma here from

5
00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:29,200
Speaker 1: Betting Pros and Fantasy Pros. Find him on Twitter at

6
00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:31,160
Speaker 1: too Much Tuma. Brendan, thanks for joining me today. How

7
00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:31,520
Speaker 1: you doing.

8
00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:33,440
Speaker 2: I'm excited to be here Dan.

9
00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:37,479
Speaker 3: As you know, I was my girlfriend aka the roommate

10
00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:41,240
Speaker 3: is learning. She wanted to learn sports betting this season,

11
00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:43,680
Speaker 3: so we've been, you know, picking some spreads each week.

12
00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:47,320
Speaker 3: She did her first parlay this past Sunday and one

13
00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:50,839
Speaker 3: and set with me because I didn't let us, you know,

14
00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:53,080
Speaker 3: actually bet it. So we lost out on money in

15
00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:55,280
Speaker 3: that regard. And now she's wondering why I'm on the

16
00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:56,120
Speaker 3: show instead of her.

17
00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:59,240
Speaker 1: So, but you're in Massachusetts, right, so you probably can't.

18
00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:01,320
Speaker 1: You can't. Is sports betting legal there?

19
00:01:01,360 --> 00:01:01,400
Speaker 4: No?

20
00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:02,360
Speaker 1: Right, not yet. No.

21
00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:04,200
Speaker 2: We don't have like fan doing DraftKings.

22
00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:06,640
Speaker 3: I just it was the first one and now we'll

23
00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:09,959
Speaker 3: probably bet the next one and have some trouble winning it.

24
00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:11,480
Speaker 2: But that's how it goes.

25
00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:13,560
Speaker 1: I think you need to visit me in New Hampshire,

26
00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:16,360
Speaker 1: which you never do. You never bring me scones or anything.

27
00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:19,280
Speaker 1: The roommate never swings by or anything like that. My

28
00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:21,880
Speaker 1: wife could run with her, but whatever doesn't matter. All

29
00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:24,520
Speaker 1: I care about right now, Duma is looking at these

30
00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:27,520
Speaker 1: week eleven lines. Week ten was a weird one. We'll

31
00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:29,440
Speaker 1: talk about it on Thursday. Actually went zero and three

32
00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:32,920
Speaker 1: on my best bets, but I went like like twelve

33
00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:35,240
Speaker 1: and four on the weekend, So sorry about giving out

34
00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:36,760
Speaker 1: the picking and jewes in the wrong ones. Is a

35
00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:39,119
Speaker 1: weird week, but I did think there were some spots

36
00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:41,399
Speaker 1: or some interesting lines that I really want to get

37
00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:44,760
Speaker 1: into here. Now that we are fully through week ten,

38
00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:47,319
Speaker 1: let's get into it before we do again. This podcast

39
00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:49,640
Speaker 1: is brought to you by BETMGM so their latest offer.

40
00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:51,640
Speaker 1: New customers can bet ten dollars and you can win

41
00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:54,120
Speaker 1: two hundred dollars if the team you bet on scores

42
00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:56,520
Speaker 1: a touchdown. Again, this is for new customers. Is with

43
00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:59,560
Speaker 1: the code Juice one hundred from our other podcast, The

44
00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:03,840
Speaker 1: Day Juice. Again. It's basically free money. Okay, every team's

45
00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:05,760
Speaker 1: going to basically score a touchdown. Don't put on the

46
00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:09,200
Speaker 1: Jets stuff again. That is available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana,

47
00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:14,560
Speaker 1: West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, d C, Arizona,

48
00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:18,040
Speaker 1: and Wyoming. All right, Brendon, let's get into it. Let's

49
00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:21,560
Speaker 1: start the Thursday night game. The Patriots are visiting Atlanta

50
00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:24,799
Speaker 1: taking on the Falcons. The Pats are laying six and

51
00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:27,200
Speaker 1: a half. This spread has been slowly moving up since

52
00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:29,160
Speaker 1: it opened up with the look ahead line. There's probably

53
00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:32,000
Speaker 1: going to be no Corderio Patterson in this one. Hasn't

54
00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:34,639
Speaker 1: officially been ruled out yet, but likely the total is

55
00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:38,120
Speaker 1: forty seven. You have some question marks here, obviously, Brendan, like,

56
00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:40,920
Speaker 1: we don't know Cordero Patterson necessarily, we assume he's going

57
00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:42,959
Speaker 1: to be out. We don't know which running back is

58
00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:44,600
Speaker 1: going to be able to suit up for the Patriots.

59
00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:47,600
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily know that it matters. There is a

60
00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:51,520
Speaker 1: book out there, DraftKings my book, and not surprising Brendan,

61
00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:54,480
Speaker 1: it usually sort of inflates towards the Pats a little

62
00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:57,120
Speaker 1: bit because people here are New England fans. I expect that.

63
00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:00,120
Speaker 1: But the consensus line is six and a half. Right now,

64
00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:02,240
Speaker 1: What do you think about this? With the total forty seven.

65
00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:04,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, so what this line tells me is the Pats

66
00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:08,079
Speaker 3: aren't sneaking up on anyone anymore. For a little bit there,

67
00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:10,200
Speaker 3: you know, as oh are the Pats good? They for

68
00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:12,640
Speaker 3: a while they only had wins against the Jets and

69
00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:15,120
Speaker 3: the Texans, and now they're on a nice little winning streak.

70
00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:18,240
Speaker 3: And obviously Sundays beat down over the Browns was a

71
00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:19,639
Speaker 3: big one that got a.

72
00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:20,240
Speaker 2: Lot of attention.

73
00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:23,639
Speaker 3: And I think Vegas is just making this line and saying,

74
00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:26,480
Speaker 3: you know, knowing the public's still going to want to

75
00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:30,000
Speaker 3: take the Pats for me these Thursday night games. I've

76
00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:32,200
Speaker 3: just had such a little success with them this year

77
00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:35,600
Speaker 3: that they've been so weird more than normal. I'm trying

78
00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:39,360
Speaker 3: to more lean into the volatility of the NFL season.

79
00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:41,200
Speaker 3: You know, there's been a lot of jokes. We just

80
00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:43,560
Speaker 3: saw the Rams lose last night. There's no good teams

81
00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:45,600
Speaker 3: and that sort of thing, and it's a long season.

82
00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:47,480
Speaker 3: There's a lot of swings. The Chiefs are bad for

83
00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:50,360
Speaker 3: a while, then they're good. So I'm trying more to

84
00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:53,440
Speaker 3: lean into that and make uncomfortable picks.

85
00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:54,920
Speaker 2: Of course, I looked.

86
00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:56,520
Speaker 3: At the Pats and Falcons last week and I think

87
00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:58,600
Speaker 3: the Pats are better, but I'm gonna try to go

88
00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:00,280
Speaker 3: with my brain on this one and just kind of

89
00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:01,280
Speaker 3: grab the points.

90
00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:02,520
Speaker 2: I don't love it. Again.

91
00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:04,720
Speaker 3: The Thursday night games have just been so weird. We

92
00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:07,320
Speaker 3: saw like last Thursday with the Ravens and Dolphins. But

93
00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:10,200
Speaker 3: I just think it feels too easy to take, you know,

94
00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:12,480
Speaker 3: the Pats minus six and a half on the road

95
00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:13,160
Speaker 3: in this one.

96
00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:16,000
Speaker 1: I do think that, you know, it's it's a very

97
00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:18,120
Speaker 1: simplistic way of thinking about it, but I do think

98
00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:21,400
Speaker 1: that this seems too easy. And I remember I was

99
00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:24,159
Speaker 1: talking about it with a couple of people, and you know,

100
00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:26,359
Speaker 1: because on the Betting pros app which you know everybody

101
00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:28,200
Speaker 1: should use, you can make picks. By the way, even

102
00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:30,320
Speaker 1: if you're you're not a quote unquote you know betting expert,

103
00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:32,839
Speaker 1: even users can make picks track their progress. It's great

104
00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:35,520
Speaker 1: you can see what you know, we pick. But I

105
00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:37,719
Speaker 1: you know, I was on the forty nine Ers getting

106
00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:39,760
Speaker 1: three and a half, and I felt like you looked

107
00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:43,159
Speaker 1: at that game and that game was begging you to

108
00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:45,800
Speaker 1: take the Rams right like you were like the Rams

109
00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:48,159
Speaker 1: are going to destroy them, Like even after Robert Woods's injury,

110
00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:50,320
Speaker 1: Rams are going to destroy them. Four nine ers are terrible.

111
00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:53,360
Speaker 1: But this is why the NFL is what it is.

112
00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:56,520
Speaker 1: This is why there are casinos, because you have to

113
00:04:56,600 --> 00:04:58,240
Speaker 1: assume right now with this line that they did move

114
00:04:58,279 --> 00:04:59,479
Speaker 1: it up a little bit. Again, it was six, not

115
00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:01,719
Speaker 1: six and a half. Everything about that says that the

116
00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:03,240
Speaker 1: pats are going to be able to cover this. They're

117
00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:06,640
Speaker 1: coming off a giant win. They looked fantastic against the Browns.

118
00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:10,279
Speaker 1: They're going to just completely take away Kyle Pitts and

119
00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:13,760
Speaker 1: with no Quadero Patterson, there's basically no way for Atlanta

120
00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:15,919
Speaker 1: to be able to move the ball. But the books

121
00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:17,760
Speaker 1: are just sort of hanging tight. I do think that

122
00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:19,840
Speaker 1: if you like the Patriots, you bet it now, because

123
00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:22,240
Speaker 1: I can't see it really moving down like the books

124
00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:23,920
Speaker 1: have no reason. I'm sure to do that. I'm sure

125
00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:25,839
Speaker 1: the money is coming in here on the Patriots, and

126
00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:28,239
Speaker 1: I could see it getting to seven. But I agree

127
00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:30,760
Speaker 1: with you. Thursday night games in particular are really really

128
00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:32,440
Speaker 1: difficult to sort of bet. We saw it with the

129
00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:36,160
Speaker 1: Dolphins and the Ravens even total. So the only thing

130
00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:37,720
Speaker 1: I will say about this too much. Let me know

131
00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:40,360
Speaker 1: if you agree. If you do like the Patriots, it's

132
00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:41,480
Speaker 1: something that you should probably bet.

133
00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:41,840
Speaker 2: Now.

134
00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:44,240
Speaker 1: If you like the Falcons, you can probably wait till

135
00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:45,960
Speaker 1: close to kickoff. It probably ends up at six and

136
00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:48,040
Speaker 1: a half maybe seven, so you might wait. But I

137
00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:49,800
Speaker 1: don't think there's any reason to pounce on it if

138
00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:51,040
Speaker 1: you like the Pats. Do you agree with that?

139
00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:53,880
Speaker 3: Myself is someone who listens to you know, these pods

140
00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:56,360
Speaker 3: is that's probably the number one thing I've learned from

141
00:05:56,440 --> 00:05:58,240
Speaker 3: you know, just listening to you this season, and someone

142
00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:00,919
Speaker 3: who's always trying to better their process is yeah, like

143
00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:03,960
Speaker 3: either taking you know, most people wait till Sunday or

144
00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:07,039
Speaker 3: Saturday to make their bets for the weekend. But yeah,

145
00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:09,919
Speaker 3: I think I'm noticing a lot of value in whether

146
00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:12,480
Speaker 3: you take it early or wait. On the lines that

147
00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:14,920
Speaker 3: you you and you know whoever the guest is usually mentioned,

148
00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:17,440
Speaker 3: So I fully agree with that. You know, typically the favorites,

149
00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:18,919
Speaker 3: you want to take them early if you're going to.

150
00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:21,480
Speaker 1: Well that's the whole point of this process, good man,

151
00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:23,520
Speaker 1: that is what we're doing here. So again I don't

152
00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:26,520
Speaker 1: I'll probably be on it just like have a small wager,

153
00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:29,640
Speaker 1: to be honest, just because makes Thursday night football more

154
00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:32,080
Speaker 1: interesting and because the Pats, you know, I'll have to

155
00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:34,480
Speaker 1: root against, but regardless, I do not let that back

156
00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:38,080
Speaker 1: into the betting. Interesting one here, Brendan in Buffalo, the

157
00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:41,920
Speaker 1: Bills are lank seven to the Colts. The total which

158
00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:43,800
Speaker 1: I just had and I lost, so I'm going to

159
00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:47,279
Speaker 1: stall for like three seconds is forty nine here. What

160
00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:48,200
Speaker 1: do you think about this one?

161
00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:51,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the Bills, obviously we saw them. I think

162
00:06:51,240 --> 00:06:53,400
Speaker 3: the Bills are just definitely more vulnerable. It's not you

163
00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:55,680
Speaker 3: know a lot of times we wait for the huge

164
00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:58,159
Speaker 3: downfall of the Chiefs. Like again, I'm gonna keep referencing

165
00:06:58,160 --> 00:06:59,839
Speaker 3: them because just like what happened to them this season

166
00:06:59,880 --> 00:07:02,240
Speaker 3: is such a good example of the swings of the

167
00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:05,400
Speaker 3: NFL season and how the public can overreact or underreact.

168
00:07:05,680 --> 00:07:08,440
Speaker 3: But we really wanted them to like completely bottom out,

169
00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:10,400
Speaker 3: and I haven't seen that happen to the Bills yet.

170
00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:13,080
Speaker 3: The offense has, you know, definitely struggled. They're dealing with

171
00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:16,000
Speaker 3: some similarly, you know, two high shell things. That Jaguars game,

172
00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:18,880
Speaker 3: you know, was was very strange from what you'd expect

173
00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:21,560
Speaker 3: going in. And then you know, even there was a

174
00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:24,440
Speaker 3: Dolphins game they struggled with. So I don't think the Bills.

175
00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:27,440
Speaker 3: So you know this absolute, you know, dominant offense that

176
00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:30,360
Speaker 3: we saw last season, but they're still really good and

177
00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:32,600
Speaker 3: there's still above average. To me, this is one that

178
00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:35,520
Speaker 3: I'd be much more comfortable throwing in some sort of

179
00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:38,559
Speaker 3: teaser rather than just taking you know, the minus seven

180
00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:41,800
Speaker 3: straight up. I don't necessarily love, you know, any time

181
00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:45,360
Speaker 3: taking Carson Wentz. He's just he's a volatile quarterback in

182
00:07:45,400 --> 00:07:47,200
Speaker 3: the sense, you know, you never you never know what

183
00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:49,800
Speaker 3: you're gonna get in terms of, you know, turnover worthy plays.

184
00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:52,680
Speaker 3: So it's a fun rematch of you know what I

185
00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:57,560
Speaker 3: think was the best playoff game last postseason, And yeah,

186
00:07:57,640 --> 00:07:59,520
Speaker 3: I think that's my you know, my lean. I don't

187
00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:02,600
Speaker 3: really want it to Buffalo minus seven, but it's a teaser.

188
00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:04,800
Speaker 1: Game, so you think that you would tease Buffalo down

189
00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:07,160
Speaker 1: to minus one and take them on that one. Ye, Yeah,

190
00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:09,880
Speaker 1: So I don't have a great feel for it. The

191
00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:11,880
Speaker 1: Colts are a difficult team for me because I think

192
00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:14,880
Speaker 1: on any given day, the Colts can hang with any

193
00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:17,040
Speaker 1: team in football on any given day if they are

194
00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:19,480
Speaker 1: at their best. Our offensive line is elite. Jonathan Taylor

195
00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:21,680
Speaker 1: might be, you know, maybe the best running back in

196
00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:24,720
Speaker 1: the league. Christian McCaffrey of course, now that Derek Henry's out.

197
00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:29,560
Speaker 1: I mean, but Cartson Wentz has a pension for making

198
00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:33,800
Speaker 1: terrible plays, and you can see them just getting their

199
00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:36,040
Speaker 1: butts kicked in this one. But there's no way I'm

200
00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:38,160
Speaker 1: laying the seven. There's a seven and a half out there.

201
00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:41,480
Speaker 1: I'm looking again at bettingpros dot com. We have fifteen

202
00:08:41,520 --> 00:08:43,080
Speaker 1: books that you can look at. You can limit it

203
00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:44,480
Speaker 1: to your state only, but you can look at every

204
00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:47,679
Speaker 1: single book that is sort of out there. FANDU right

205
00:08:47,679 --> 00:08:49,440
Speaker 1: now is hanging out at seven and a half. That's

206
00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:51,679
Speaker 1: something where I'm interested in the Colts because I do

207
00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:54,880
Speaker 1: think that the Colts have the ability to keep this close.

208
00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:57,840
Speaker 1: This is sort of a matchup where you know, the

209
00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:00,360
Speaker 1: Colts don't rely as good as Michael Pittman Junior is.

210
00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:02,960
Speaker 1: They don't rely on their wide receivers to sort of

211
00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:05,640
Speaker 1: carry them throughout the day. They're very much a running team.

212
00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:07,920
Speaker 1: The Bills of a great rush defense and pass defense,

213
00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:11,040
Speaker 1: but you know they have the lockdown corners. I don't

214
00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:13,000
Speaker 1: really think, like, you know, White's gonna be able to

215
00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:14,960
Speaker 1: just you know, take away Pittman, but they don't rely

216
00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:17,520
Speaker 1: on that as much. They're creative offensively. Again, they have

217
00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:19,319
Speaker 1: such a good offensive line. I think I'll be able

218
00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:22,840
Speaker 1: to take to keep it relatively close. I'm not running

219
00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:25,800
Speaker 1: to bet it right now or anything. I feel like

220
00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:28,480
Speaker 1: it ends up at seven, that's probably right. I lean

221
00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:30,520
Speaker 1: the under a little bit, But I taking unders in

222
00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:32,760
Speaker 1: the NFL unless you have a really strong conviction, or

223
00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:35,920
Speaker 1: unless it's against a team that's so slow and that

224
00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:38,120
Speaker 1: you can feel comfortable, like, you know, whenever the Broncos

225
00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:41,800
Speaker 1: get at there or the Steelers. It's just not something

226
00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:44,120
Speaker 1: where I really want to go after. So this is

227
00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:45,880
Speaker 1: probably more of a stay away from me. But I'm

228
00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:48,040
Speaker 1: more eyeing the Colts. I don't think I tease it down.

229
00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:49,640
Speaker 1: I could see the Colts winning this game. Person.

230
00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:52,480
Speaker 3: That's why I look at I will know as well

231
00:09:52,520 --> 00:09:54,920
Speaker 3: that the Colts do run that the cover to the

232
00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:58,880
Speaker 3: two high shale. Yeah it's the biggest buzzword in NFL

233
00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:01,160
Speaker 3: conversation right now, but they do do that, and that

234
00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:03,880
Speaker 3: the Bills have had a little bit of trouble with it.

235
00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:06,760
Speaker 1: And you do have Cole Beasley banged up here, you know,

236
00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:09,440
Speaker 1: which does take away an outlet obviously. You know, you

237
00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:12,200
Speaker 1: have Stefan Diggs, who's great, and the secondary four. The

238
00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:14,400
Speaker 1: Colts played really well early in the season, but they

239
00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:16,439
Speaker 1: have been burned of late, so it's not as if

240
00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:19,199
Speaker 1: that's something they could stop. But you know, the Bills,

241
00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:22,240
Speaker 1: I don't think they solved all our problems just by

242
00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:24,000
Speaker 1: beating up on a just team in a game by

243
00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:26,199
Speaker 1: the way, that was ten to three with two minutes

244
00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:28,360
Speaker 1: left in the first half. So you know, we can

245
00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:30,640
Speaker 1: we can take what we want from that. Forty nine

246
00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:33,200
Speaker 1: ers coming off the ginormous win, which is usually when

247
00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:37,040
Speaker 1: you sell them. They are visiting Jacksonville, they're laying seven. Now,

248
00:10:37,040 --> 00:10:38,640
Speaker 1: there's a lot of six and a half, a lot

249
00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:42,160
Speaker 1: of sevens, but the consensus line overall is seven. The

250
00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:44,840
Speaker 1: total here is forty six. What do you think, Tom?

251
00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:48,360
Speaker 3: I hate this so much because in this past Sunday

252
00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:50,440
Speaker 3: Jaguars Colts, it looked like the Colts were just going

253
00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:52,960
Speaker 3: to go up big and just absolutely steam all over them,

254
00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:55,120
Speaker 3: and they kept showing urban Meyer on the sidelines. It

255
00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:57,800
Speaker 3: legitimately looks like he doesn't want to be there. You know,

256
00:10:57,840 --> 00:10:59,400
Speaker 3: I think a lot of people want to be surprised

257
00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:01,920
Speaker 3: this was his only season in Jacksonville. And then they

258
00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:04,240
Speaker 3: claw back in they had you know, what I think

259
00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:06,240
Speaker 3: was you know, at least a really good defensive game

260
00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:09,560
Speaker 3: plan against Buffalo the week prior. And again this is

261
00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:12,840
Speaker 3: one where we talk about, you know, kind of just

262
00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:15,760
Speaker 3: going with what the smart play is and that's you know,

263
00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:18,040
Speaker 3: the Niners have this big way and now let's fade them.

264
00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:21,160
Speaker 3: This one. I don't feel fully comfortable with it. I know,

265
00:11:21,280 --> 00:11:23,800
Speaker 3: these these first few games haven't been you know, strong

266
00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:26,560
Speaker 3: leans by me yet by any means.

267
00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:29,520
Speaker 1: But you don't have to brandon like do not I

268
00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:31,280
Speaker 1: don't know the one thing I do and I talk

269
00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:33,280
Speaker 1: about with the guests like if you don't have a

270
00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:35,920
Speaker 1: lean on a game, and I often don't, like there's

271
00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:39,360
Speaker 1: a reason, especially as we get into week eleven. At

272
00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:41,480
Speaker 1: this point the lines are sharp, so it's something where

273
00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:42,560
Speaker 1: don't don't force it.

274
00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:45,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's no you know, I just I guess, Okay,

275
00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:47,360
Speaker 3: that's a good point. And you know, we want to

276
00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:50,000
Speaker 3: try to be objective with the listeners and not just

277
00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:52,120
Speaker 3: you know, give takes to give takes. So this is

278
00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:54,880
Speaker 3: one I truly don't see any you know, noticeable trends

279
00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:57,640
Speaker 3: or have any fun numbers to throw out other than

280
00:11:57,679 --> 00:12:01,240
Speaker 3: you know, the thing that it doesn't necessarily make sense

281
00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:03,880
Speaker 3: to do, but probably would is to take the Jags.

282
00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:04,120
Speaker 2: With the points.

283
00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:06,480
Speaker 3: I can't get there yet until you know, I do

284
00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:08,640
Speaker 3: further research into the week and see if I can

285
00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:09,480
Speaker 3: uncover anything.

286
00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:15,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have a very difficult time backing the Jags. Ever.

287
00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:18,360
Speaker 1: This is one of those where every time, almost every time,

288
00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:20,040
Speaker 1: if you're a professional better and you have a model,

289
00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:22,199
Speaker 1: I almost guarantee that the model is going to say

290
00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:25,000
Speaker 1: at the Jaguars. And I remember several years ago when

291
00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:26,360
Speaker 1: it said the same thing with the Jets, when the

292
00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:30,720
Speaker 1: Jets were just terrible and you know, losing every single

293
00:12:30,760 --> 00:12:34,480
Speaker 1: game and it didn't matter last year, it didn't matter

294
00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:37,839
Speaker 1: that professionals kept being like my model suggests that this

295
00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:40,400
Speaker 1: point spread should be three points lower and the Jets

296
00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:43,800
Speaker 1: would lose by you know, twenty five because they were

297
00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:47,600
Speaker 1: so terrible that it did and so poorly coached. I

298
00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:49,880
Speaker 1: did feel that way about Jacksonville for a while, but

299
00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:52,160
Speaker 1: their defense is playing a lot better of late, so

300
00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:54,520
Speaker 1: they are showing life despite the fact that Urban Meyer

301
00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:57,000
Speaker 1: is not a good coach. So it's something where like

302
00:12:57,040 --> 00:12:59,439
Speaker 1: there looks like there's value on Jacksonville. It's a perfect

303
00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:01,680
Speaker 1: spot to sell forty nine ers high. They haven't solved

304
00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:04,040
Speaker 1: all their issues just by coming in here and beating

305
00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:06,520
Speaker 1: up on a Rams team. It's a divisional matchup, by

306
00:13:06,520 --> 00:13:08,640
Speaker 1: the way, which is always something that you know something

307
00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:12,080
Speaker 1: freaky is gonna happen. But I can't back the Jags

308
00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:14,600
Speaker 1: right now, you know. And again a lot of spots

309
00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:16,319
Speaker 1: at six and a half. The Conzenis line is seven.

310
00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:18,520
Speaker 1: More enticing there, but it's a stay away from me.

311
00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:22,400
Speaker 1: Ravens coming off an embarrassing loss here on Thursday night

312
00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:26,120
Speaker 1: football are visiting Chicago coming off of bye. The Ravens

313
00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:28,880
Speaker 1: are laying six total forty five and a half.

314
00:13:29,640 --> 00:13:31,679
Speaker 3: So this is one that I do feel a little

315
00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:33,520
Speaker 3: bit more strongly bad and it is what's going to

316
00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:36,040
Speaker 3: be with the Bears and taking the plus six at

317
00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:37,720
Speaker 3: home on Thursday night. Like you said, it was an

318
00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:38,640
Speaker 3: embarrassing loss.

319
00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:39,240
Speaker 2: You know.

320
00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:42,360
Speaker 3: A really fun stat from that. We're starting to notice

321
00:13:42,440 --> 00:13:46,079
Speaker 3: Lamar's kind of kryptonite is the blitz. Is you look

322
00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:48,360
Speaker 3: at his splits, you know on PFF or any other site,

323
00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:51,560
Speaker 3: and yards per attempt and completion percentage in a clean

324
00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:55,319
Speaker 3: pocket versus the blitz, it really changes the Dolphins on

325
00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:59,280
Speaker 3: Thursday night they sent their safeties, the number of time

326
00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:01,760
Speaker 3: they blitz the safeties for the most times that a

327
00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:04,839
Speaker 3: defensive back has been blitzed in the next gen stats era,

328
00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:07,960
Speaker 3: which goes back to twenty sixteen. So the Dolphins really

329
00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:10,600
Speaker 3: kind of uncovered that blueprint. And I think a lot

330
00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:13,280
Speaker 3: of folks might just chalk that up to Thursday night

331
00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:16,640
Speaker 3: weirdness and whatnot. But something I'm trying to do is get,

332
00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:19,440
Speaker 3: you know, in on these trends kind of early. Again

333
00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:22,160
Speaker 3: with the Chiefs thing, if you started shorting the Chiefs,

334
00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:25,000
Speaker 3: the Chiefs after that first bad game they had, you know,

335
00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:26,760
Speaker 3: you could have had a few good weeks there for

336
00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:30,000
Speaker 3: a while. And I don't think this Ravens problem against

337
00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:33,240
Speaker 3: Lamar against the blitz is necessarily going away just yet.

338
00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:35,280
Speaker 3: I don't think everyone is fully on it just yet,

339
00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:37,880
Speaker 3: So that makes me want to be on it. Additionally,

340
00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:40,320
Speaker 3: you know, Justin Fields has been He's had his two

341
00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:42,440
Speaker 3: best games the past two weeks.

342
00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:45,200
Speaker 2: They finally had their bye week. We know that rookies a.

343
00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:48,840
Speaker 3: Lot of the time improve after, you know, once they

344
00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:51,920
Speaker 3: finally get that bye week. So I think that combination

345
00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:54,360
Speaker 3: of things, and again just leaning into the volatility of

346
00:14:54,360 --> 00:14:58,120
Speaker 3: the season and grabbing the plus six has me, you know,

347
00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:00,520
Speaker 3: leaning the Bears here and feeling good about it as

348
00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:00,800
Speaker 3: of now.

349
00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:03,480
Speaker 1: At least this is funny Tooma because I also have

350
00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:05,080
Speaker 1: a lean in this game, but it is the other way.

351
00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:07,040
Speaker 1: So this is good. We you and I will just

352
00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:10,360
Speaker 1: make a private you know, you know, a penny wager

353
00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:12,480
Speaker 1: here for me and you. I do lean the Ravens,

354
00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:14,880
Speaker 1: and I think I would take it. Now it's six

355
00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:16,760
Speaker 1: and a half at a couple of books, so that's

356
00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:18,560
Speaker 1: good for you. Obviously, it's six and a half even

357
00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:23,120
Speaker 1: better I obviously, Yeah, that wasn't just a Thursday night

358
00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:26,240
Speaker 1: game that the Ravens were rusty, although it is worth

359
00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:28,240
Speaker 1: noting that they basically their offense was on the field

360
00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:30,800
Speaker 1: for about one hundred plays on the Sunday before and

361
00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:32,080
Speaker 1: then they came out on thirst. It was a very

362
00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:34,200
Speaker 1: difficult turnaround with them. But I do think that the

363
00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:37,240
Speaker 1: Dolphins defense has more just figured things out at this point.

364
00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:40,400
Speaker 1: And yeah, you're right. Obviously they played cover zero and

365
00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:43,800
Speaker 1: they blitzed a ton and that does cause Lamar problems.

366
00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:46,920
Speaker 1: But the Ravens are one of the best coach teams

367
00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:49,120
Speaker 1: in the NFL. Of course, they have John Harbaugh. They

368
00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:51,840
Speaker 1: have just sort of an elite coaching staff, and I

369
00:15:51,880 --> 00:15:54,920
Speaker 1: don't see this as them basically being like, shoot, we

370
00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:57,160
Speaker 1: can't figure out what to do when we get blitzed

371
00:15:57,320 --> 00:15:59,920
Speaker 1: like this, Like Lamar Jackson might run twenty five times,

372
00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:01,800
Speaker 1: you know, if he gets blitzed and he takes off

373
00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:03,640
Speaker 1: and he sees an opening, I think they're going to

374
00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:07,720
Speaker 1: get there. I agree that there is some growth for

375
00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:10,840
Speaker 1: sure from justin field. It's been encouraging to see long

376
00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:13,880
Speaker 1: term especially, and the Ravens defense is nothing to write

377
00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:17,040
Speaker 1: home about whatsoever. But you give him ten days at

378
00:16:17,040 --> 00:16:19,640
Speaker 1: this point, you give him ten days to recover from

379
00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:22,080
Speaker 1: that stinging loss. I think you come out here and

380
00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:25,240
Speaker 1: you see a smash spot for the Ravens. I bet

381
00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:27,680
Speaker 1: it now, just because I think there's more of a chance.

382
00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:29,920
Speaker 1: I think if you're on your side, Brendan, I would wait.

383
00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:32,160
Speaker 1: I don't think you have to go now because if

384
00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:33,840
Speaker 1: you're at six, if you're at five and a half,

385
00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:36,160
Speaker 1: it doesn't really matter that much. But you might get

386
00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:37,600
Speaker 1: the seven because it's six and a half at a

387
00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:39,400
Speaker 1: couple of spots. My guess is people will want to

388
00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:41,560
Speaker 1: back the Ravens on this one. I would bet it

389
00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:43,600
Speaker 1: now at six. I might tease this down to a

390
00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:45,480
Speaker 1: pick because I do think that the Ravens. It would

391
00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:47,440
Speaker 1: be shocked me if the Ravens lose to the Dolphins

392
00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:49,560
Speaker 1: and then lose to the Bears in back to back weeks.

393
00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:51,160
Speaker 1: You know what I mean, that's something going. I don't

394
00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:53,760
Speaker 1: have a great feel for the total. I mean, you know, again,

395
00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:56,720
Speaker 1: totals are very tough right now in the NFL, even

396
00:16:56,760 --> 00:16:59,280
Speaker 1: when I lean under. But it's good we're on different sides.

397
00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:01,360
Speaker 1: I like that. It's good that the listeners can sort

398
00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:03,560
Speaker 1: of hear that. But personally, I would bet it, and

399
00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:07,480
Speaker 1: I might tease it down pretty much immediately as soon

400
00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:11,680
Speaker 1: as I can. Lions visiting the Browns. Brendan. The Browns

401
00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:17,119
Speaker 1: coming off of terrible performance against the Patriots, but you know,

402
00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:19,359
Speaker 1: nobody's too worried about them. They are laying ten here

403
00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:23,520
Speaker 1: to the Lions coming off the ginormous tie that they

404
00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:26,000
Speaker 1: had with the Steelers. The total is low, it's forty

405
00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:29,080
Speaker 1: four and a half. We obviously have some question marks

406
00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:31,840
Speaker 1: for quarterbacks on both sides of this game. Baker Mayfield

407
00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:34,119
Speaker 1: dealing with the knee injury. He's day to day. Sounds

408
00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:36,359
Speaker 1: like he should go. I'm not sure it matters that

409
00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:39,040
Speaker 1: much given that you have Case Schenham Jared Goff dealing

410
00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:41,240
Speaker 1: with an oblique injury. He did play that entire game,

411
00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:43,080
Speaker 1: so I'm not sure if that's going to limit him.

412
00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:45,080
Speaker 1: Not really sure it matters. What do you think here

413
00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:48,960
Speaker 1: at ten points and the total a pretty low forty

414
00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:49,639
Speaker 1: four and a half.

415
00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:52,080
Speaker 3: Right, So this is another one let's lean into that

416
00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:56,120
Speaker 3: uncomfortable feeling. The Browns just got absolutely destroyed by the Patriots,

417
00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:59,639
Speaker 3: as we mentioned in week ten, but now they're returning home.

418
00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:02,560
Speaker 3: You know, if Nick Chubb can get back for this game,

419
00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:04,119
Speaker 3: I think that would help as well.

420
00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:07,520
Speaker 1: That's another question. Yes, good good to mention as well. Again,

421
00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:10,400
Speaker 1: based on the timing. This is one of the things

422
00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:13,159
Speaker 1: where if everything goes correctly, he should be back for

423
00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:18,000
Speaker 1: this game. Although again daranis Johnson Brendan, I'm incredibly impressed

424
00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:19,720
Speaker 1: with him just as a runner, I don't I mean,

425
00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:22,280
Speaker 1: the running game is better with Nick Chubb, of course,

426
00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:24,479
Speaker 1: but I don't think they like it. Doesn't fall off

427
00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:26,320
Speaker 1: a cliff here once he went to Johnson. But yes,

428
00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:27,440
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, go ahead.

429
00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:29,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely no, that's a good thing to mention as well,

430
00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:31,720
Speaker 3: And the reason why I'm so focused on the running

431
00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:34,640
Speaker 3: game is one, you know, that's the Browns offensive identity,

432
00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:37,440
Speaker 3: of course, but also the Lions are just I'm looking

433
00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:40,640
Speaker 3: at their PFF grades here. They're twenty fourth in run defense,

434
00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:42,919
Speaker 3: They're thirty first in coverage.

435
00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:44,280
Speaker 2: And you know, if.

436
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:46,119
Speaker 3: There's ever going to be a time that you want

437
00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:48,320
Speaker 3: to bet on Baker Mayfield, it's going to be when

438
00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:51,080
Speaker 3: he's goat, has an easy matchup. So to me, the

439
00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:54,280
Speaker 3: Lions defense is really, you know, one that you can attack.

440
00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:57,479
Speaker 3: I know, Mason Rudolph, you know, wasn't able to take

441
00:18:57,520 --> 00:18:59,840
Speaker 3: full advantage. I think Baker Mayfield's you know, at least

442
00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:03,120
Speaker 3: in a tier above that. He's got some superior offensive coach,

443
00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:06,200
Speaker 3: and I think and again the Lions. We talked about

444
00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:08,840
Speaker 3: the Ravens coming off that crazy game and then having

445
00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:11,040
Speaker 3: to play Thursday night the Lions. I mean, Dan Campbell,

446
00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:13,760
Speaker 3: how much energy can that guy have left after you

447
00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:15,040
Speaker 3: know that overtime tie.

448
00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:19,280
Speaker 1: Unlimited supply, br that's all, yeah, he has unlimited supply.

449
00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:19,640
Speaker 2: Yeah.

450
00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:21,520
Speaker 1: Now I hear again.

451
00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:23,159
Speaker 3: Every week it feels like, you know, people want to

452
00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:25,240
Speaker 3: take the Lions, whether with a spread or on the

453
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:27,520
Speaker 3: money line. I've seen a lot of that and thinking

454
00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:29,080
Speaker 3: that this is going to be the week. You know,

455
00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:30,920
Speaker 3: I'm kind of going the other way this time, and

456
00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:33,720
Speaker 3: I want to lean into the Browns. Everyone just saw

457
00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:36,720
Speaker 3: them get whacked, and I think this this matchup just

458
00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:38,240
Speaker 3: sets up really nicely for them.

459
00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:40,800
Speaker 1: Does it matter to you if Mayfield is able to go?

460
00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:42,600
Speaker 1: Would you feel the same if it is Keenan.

461
00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:45,600
Speaker 2: I do prefer Mayfield. I'm kind of operating as if

462
00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:46,199
Speaker 2: he is going to go.

463
00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:46,960
Speaker 1: I think okay.

464
00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:49,080
Speaker 3: You and I both grew up on the Fantasy Pro's

465
00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:50,960
Speaker 3: news desk, and we do have a blurb belt there

466
00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:53,640
Speaker 3: from coach to Fanski saying that he is it's a

467
00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:55,879
Speaker 3: minor knee injury. He's day to day, but does expect

468
00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:56,520
Speaker 3: him to play?

469
00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:58,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I do think he's going to suit up. I'm

470
00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:00,760
Speaker 1: not sure it would affect my opinion. Look, this is

471
00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:02,360
Speaker 1: a game. I can't take the Browns. I don't think

472
00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:05,440
Speaker 1: laying ten, but I do expect them. Like, if you

473
00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:07,919
Speaker 1: forced me to make a pick, it would be the

474
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:12,560
Speaker 1: Browns because I this strikes you as an exhausted letdown

475
00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:15,639
Speaker 1: spot for the Lions. How many touches did Deandroskis have

476
00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:17,919
Speaker 1: thirty six or something like that. It was interesting that

477
00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:21,239
Speaker 1: I feel like I think Campbell called the plays in

478
00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:23,359
Speaker 1: that one instead of Anthony Lynn, and there weren't that

479
00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 1: many dump offs but a limited Jared Goff. You know,

480
00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:30,040
Speaker 1: I don't know, man. It strikes me as I lean

481
00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:32,119
Speaker 1: a little bit towards the over here, because I do

482
00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:33,480
Speaker 1: think that the Browns are going to put up a

483
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:35,879
Speaker 1: ton of points in this game to sort of, you know,

484
00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,520
Speaker 1: it's forty four and a half to wash the taste

485
00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:40,680
Speaker 1: out of their mouth. And I don't think their defense

486
00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:43,160
Speaker 1: is so strong that they're going to be the Lions

487
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:44,520
Speaker 1: are not gonna be able to move the ball or

488
00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:46,560
Speaker 1: anything like that. So this strikes me as a game

489
00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:50,440
Speaker 1: where the Browns can pretty easily approach thirty points if

490
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:52,359
Speaker 1: they really want to, and I think they'll want to

491
00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:54,280
Speaker 1: because I think they'll want to get, you know, the

492
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:56,120
Speaker 1: taste out of their mouth. And I think the Lions

493
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:57,639
Speaker 1: will put up enough here to go over So I

494
00:20:57,720 --> 00:20:59,720
Speaker 1: lean over here and I'd probably go after it. Now

495
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:01,840
Speaker 1: doesn't matter to me who the quarterback is. I do

496
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:05,160
Speaker 1: think that it's something that that that's really the only

497
00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:07,160
Speaker 1: lean I have on it. I'll probably stay away from

498
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:10,480
Speaker 1: the total at this point, Dolphins visiting the Jets, the

499
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:13,560
Speaker 1: spread's only three a little surprising to me, I'm going

500
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:15,879
Speaker 1: to be honest. The Dolphins laying three total is just

501
00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,200
Speaker 1: forty five. We obviously have question marks as to who's

502
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:20,359
Speaker 1: going to start for the Jets at quarterback here. We

503
00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:22,879
Speaker 1: know two is going to start for the Dolphins. We

504
00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 1: don't know, you know, is Wolf. They are going to

505
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:28,479
Speaker 1: come back? Probably not, but Dolphins playing much better of late,

506
00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:31,800
Speaker 1: coming off a giant win here against the Ravens on

507
00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:33,320
Speaker 1: Thursday night. How do you feel about this one?

508
00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:35,399
Speaker 3: You know, the Jets are I'm kind of starting to

509
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:37,359
Speaker 3: put them in a similar category to the Jags, Like

510
00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:39,760
Speaker 3: we talked about. It's, you know, like the models might say,

511
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:42,320
Speaker 3: you know, Jets coming off a bad loss, Dolphins coming

512
00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:44,679
Speaker 3: off the big wins. Jets are at home time to

513
00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,159
Speaker 3: you know, take the points. But you know, sometimes with

514
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:49,560
Speaker 3: those like models and things like that, they don't identify

515
00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:51,960
Speaker 3: the outliers right away, like they dont to either identify

516
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,199
Speaker 3: the really good teams, So the really bad teams. And

517
00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:56,600
Speaker 3: you know, if you are someone who operates under the

518
00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 3: premise that the Jets are a really bad team, then

519
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,760
Speaker 3: that would be a reason not to necessarily trust into that.

520
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:04,600
Speaker 3: And for me, like just watching the you know, the Bills, Jets,

521
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:06,680
Speaker 3: and I don't want to take too much away from

522
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:08,639
Speaker 3: the previous Sunday. I think that's one of the biggest

523
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,680
Speaker 3: mistakes that sports betters make, even still to this day.

524
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,680
Speaker 3: But the defense is just uncompetitive at times, it seems.

525
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:16,720
Speaker 3: And I know it's it's going up against Buffalo and

526
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 3: it's going to be difference again against two attack of

527
00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:23,200
Speaker 3: Viola and the Dolphins, but but still I just can't

528
00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:26,399
Speaker 3: put them in the same tier. I think sometimes we

529
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 3: want to look back to the preseason. A lot of

530
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:30,919
Speaker 3: people are high on the Dolphins. They are starting to

531
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 3: run into form a bit. And yeah, the fact that

532
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:36,000
Speaker 3: it's only minus three. I don't think the Jets being

533
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:37,760
Speaker 3: at home is you know, any sort.

534
00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:40,720
Speaker 1: Of man that means nothing right.

535
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 3: If anything, it could be the situation, yea, they get

536
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:46,480
Speaker 3: down and the boo birds come out and Zach Wilson

537
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 3: coming back. I think he might be back for this one.

538
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:51,399
Speaker 1: Well, I mean there's some uncertainty right now. Right now,

539
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:53,359
Speaker 1: I'm I'm thinking that Wilson comes back. This is the

540
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 1: timeline sort of that they expected him to be able

541
00:22:55,960 --> 00:23:00,400
Speaker 1: to come back roughly. But yeah, the problem with this one,

542
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,919
Speaker 1: Brendan again is you look at some lines sometimes and

543
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:05,880
Speaker 1: a fun exercise for people to do is to make

544
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 1: their own lines and come in and then see where

545
00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:10,560
Speaker 1: it is. And to me, this was like a Dolphins

546
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,160
Speaker 1: minus five minus five and a half, like a three

547
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 1: spread right now. And again, this isn't something where I

548
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:18,160
Speaker 1: think we need to overreact to what we just saw.

549
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 1: The Jets defense has been playing terribly for weeks now

550
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 1: and the Dolphins defense. You know, we wrote it off

551
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,920
Speaker 1: a little bit against the Texans because it's the Texans, right,

552
00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 1: but this is back to back weeks here where the

553
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:35,280
Speaker 1: Dolphins have played extremely well defensively. I think their defense

554
00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 1: is relatively back. I think to a tongue of Iiloa

555
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,679
Speaker 1: completely changes that offense in terms of what he is

556
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 1: able to do. This just strikes me as a game

557
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:45,679
Speaker 1: the Dolphins are gonna win pretty easily. And if you're

558
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,879
Speaker 1: getting it at three, I would take it now for

559
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:51,639
Speaker 1: the Dolphins, like it seems like a trap. I'm willing

560
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:54,360
Speaker 1: to walk into the trap at this point, and I'd

561
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 1: probably take it now just in case it goes higher

562
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:57,440
Speaker 1: than three. And a half because I have to imagine

563
00:23:57,440 --> 00:23:59,679
Speaker 1: there's gonna be so much money coming in on the

564
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:02,600
Speaker 1: Dolphin and they'll probably be professionals back in the Jets.

565
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:06,119
Speaker 1: I think that's a mistake, but you know, is what

566
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:07,920
Speaker 1: it is. Just it strikes me as a trap.

567
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 3: I know you're a Jets fan, so I don't mean

568
00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:12,399
Speaker 3: this in a cruel way or or anything, but there,

569
00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 3: you know, you look at a lot of you know,

570
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 3: advanced stats, whether it's you know, EPA per play or

571
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:21,480
Speaker 3: completion percentage over expected, and Zach Wilson I would feel

572
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 3: better about the Dolphins if he actually plays, because it

573
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 3: has just been so so bad. There have been, you know,

574
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 3: such few like even Trevor Lawrence has had some moments

575
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:31,560
Speaker 3: in some games where it's like, oh, these will be

576
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:33,680
Speaker 3: some things to build off in the future. But Wilson,

577
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:36,159
Speaker 3: we just really haven't seen much of it. I loved

578
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:38,679
Speaker 3: I think it was NBC Sports that had a blurb

579
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 3: the other day about Zach Wilson said he needs to

580
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 3: play more like Mike White, and that's where we're at

581
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 3: halfway through his rookie season.

582
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 2: You know, I think that says it all right there.

583
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:51,400
Speaker 1: I'm not all that willing to draw conclusions on Wilson's

584
00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 1: long term value. I willing to give him some shots.

585
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,320
Speaker 1: I've seen enough sort of like moments out there that

586
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:59,359
Speaker 1: makes me think, okay, this could work. I admit I

587
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:01,800
Speaker 1: saw the same from Sam Darnold at times, so that

588
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:05,160
Speaker 1: was not correct. But we'll see about that. But I'm

589
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:07,200
Speaker 1: hoping Wilson against back in the field so we can

590
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 1: see him. But if it's Wilson, if it's Mike White,

591
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 1: I don't really care. It's Joe Flacco, I don't care.

592
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 1: I think the Dolphins are just a spirit team at

593
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 1: this point, so I will back them. And if it's

594
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 1: a trap, all on it. But I'm willing to walk

595
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 1: into it. Packers are visiting the Vikings. The Packers are

596
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 1: laying two and a half total forty nine.

597
00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the Packers. You know, obviously they had that

598
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 3: horrible Week one game against the Saints. I didn't get

599
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 3: a chance to look this up beforehand. But since then,

600
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 3: they've played nine games and they either have covered eight

601
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 3: times or I think I think they're eight and one

602
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 3: against the spread since then. Again, you might have to

603
00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:44,920
Speaker 3: fact check me on that, but they have just been

604
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 3: tremendous every week. You know, no one seemingly wants to

605
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 3: bet them, and they're they're performing really well against the spread,

606
00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:53,360
Speaker 3: so that, you know, just brings in the age old

607
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 3: question of does that mean they're due for, you know,

608
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 3: a loss against the spread or does that mean that

609
00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:01,160
Speaker 3: they can you know, probably we keep it up. And

610
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:04,320
Speaker 3: I mean, my god, this Matt Lafleur, Aaron Rodgers, they've

611
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 3: got two and a half years together now. Matt Lafloy's

612
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 3: record is incredible, like he's a great head coach. It

613
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 3: seems they have a great record. Again, it's you know,

614
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,439
Speaker 3: the Packers coming off the win and everything. It's like, oh,

615
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:18,680
Speaker 3: the Vikings aren't home divisional game. I want to take

616
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:20,919
Speaker 3: the points. I just don't want to be going up

617
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 3: against the Packers right now. I've just seen too much.

618
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,639
Speaker 3: It's been too long. They're fantastic against the spread. If

619
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 3: you want to, you know, throw it in a teaser

620
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:30,679
Speaker 3: to you know, try to you know, make sure. I

621
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 3: know you don't usually tease two point five points, but

622
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 3: you just want to try to make sure that they

623
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 3: win the game or take them out right on the

624
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:36,520
Speaker 3: money line.

625
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 2: I do like them to win.

626
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 3: Who knows what the two and a half points, but

627
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:41,720
Speaker 3: I am not wanting to go against the Packers right now.

628
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, it does seem like the teaser angle would be

629
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 1: to tease the Vikings up through the two key numbers

630
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 1: of three and seven to eight and a half. I

631
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:50,199
Speaker 1: don't feel that comfortable with it. The problem with the

632
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:53,000
Speaker 1: Vikings is, and again there's there's not gonna be Aaron

633
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 1: Jones in this game. I don't really think that matters

634
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 1: all that much. You know, Aj Dillon is you know,

635
00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 1: just as good at least as a runner and not

636
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 1: that good as a blocker or receiver. But still I

637
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 1: think that the problem for me is that the Vikings.

638
00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:06,639
Speaker 1: You never know what you're gonna get with the Vikings,

639
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:08,480
Speaker 1: right Like they show up for some games like this

640
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 1: pass game against the Chargers, like that was a spot

641
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:12,919
Speaker 1: for them. I talked about it with Matt Paraut, like

642
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 1: that was a spot that we said, Okay, there's probably

643
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 1: gonna be Vikings right here. This is the spot. They

644
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 1: show up, They rally their defense, bike Zimmer gets a

645
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:21,200
Speaker 1: defense to play, and they have other games where they

646
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 1: just don't whatsoever. And now they are home here, so it's,

647
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 1: you know, you lean that way. I can't take them

648
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:29,600
Speaker 1: in two and a half, like i'd need three or

649
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 1: three and a half. There is a three out there

650
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:35,119
Speaker 1: at a couple spots my book DraftKings Fox Bet for example,

651
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:37,160
Speaker 1: So there's a few spots there that you can get

652
00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 1: it if you like the Vikings. I think you can

653
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 1: wait a little bit, because again, it's not gonna matter

654
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 1: whether or not it goes to one and a half

655
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:45,400
Speaker 1: or or two or something like that. It really doesn't

656
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 1: matter in the grand scheme of things, but you want

657
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 1: to wait to see whether or not it gets too

658
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 1: and a half. I do like the over a little

659
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,480
Speaker 1: bit here. I mean, I think part of the issue

660
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:57,400
Speaker 1: is the fact that the Packers defense has been really good.

661
00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 1: I mean, even after they lost j or Alexander. You know,

662
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,240
Speaker 1: their scheme is really good. So there's a possibility that

663
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 1: the Vikings lay dead here. But at forty nine, there's

664
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:06,440
Speaker 1: a couple of forty nine and a halfs out there.

665
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 1: I think the Packers are going to bounce back offensively.

666
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,639
Speaker 1: It was obviously a very rusty game for Aaron Rodgers.

667
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:12,639
Speaker 1: I think they really bounce back here. I think the

668
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 1: Vikings can put up points whenever they want, and this

669
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 1: is sort of the Vikings last stand. I mean, they're

670
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 1: not going to win the division. The Packers are eight

671
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:20,159
Speaker 1: and two, they're four and five, but if they have

672
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:21,879
Speaker 1: any chance at it, this is what they have to

673
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 1: do right here. So I think you'll probably see a

674
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 1: spirited effort. It's a visional game. I would think about

675
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 1: teasing the Vikings up, but I agree that it makes

676
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 1: me uncomfortable right now to go against the Packers against spreads,

677
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 1: So you know, if it's below a field goal, I'm

678
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 1: probably not I'm going to stay away. If anything, I

679
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:39,840
Speaker 1: would tease the Vikings up, though I'm not teasing through

680
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 1: zero or anything. I would tease the Vikings up at

681
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 1: this point, Texans visiting the Titans. The Titans are laying

682
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 1: ten and a half. Again, this bounces back between ten

683
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:50,720
Speaker 1: and ten and a half, so our consensus line is

684
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:52,880
Speaker 1: ten and a half, but there's both out there. Total

685
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 1: is pretty low forty four and a half.

686
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,440
Speaker 2: What do you think, man?

687
00:28:57,320 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 3: Is this one is really really hard for me because

688
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:01,840
Speaker 3: I can make the case that again, if we want

689
00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 3: to go against you know, our better judgment and leave

690
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:07,320
Speaker 3: into that, lean into that uncomfortable feeling. The Texans at

691
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 3: ten and a half make a ton of sense. Because

692
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:12,080
Speaker 3: the Titans, you know, we keep waiting for their down game.

693
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 3: It's they had those huge wins against I forget the

694
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 3: exact order, but it was like the Bills, the Chiefs,

695
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 3: the Rams. This past week, the Saints were one of

696
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 3: you know, my best bets, and they did cover even

697
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 3: though the Titans won the game. But you know, we

698
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 3: really keep waiting waiting for that down game, like can

699
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 3: they keep getting up for these game after game? And

700
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 3: so this would seemingly be, you know, divisional game. It

701
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 3: would seemingly be a good spot for them to at

702
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 3: least even if they win, just not cover ten and

703
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 3: a half. On the other side of things, the Titans

704
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 3: are you know, they have the best record in the

705
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 3: AFC right now. And Ryan Tannehill, you look at, you know,

706
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 3: a lot of MVP indicators. I was referencing quarterback EPA

707
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,480
Speaker 3: per play and completion percentage over expected. He's right up

708
00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:53,840
Speaker 3: there with Dak and Brady and all those guys. And

709
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 3: then you look at his you.

710
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 2: Know, surrounding cast right now.

711
00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:00,120
Speaker 3: His defense isn't as good as some of those, and

712
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:01,920
Speaker 3: I think there's a really strong case for him.

713
00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 2: To be MVP.

714
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 3: I just looked at the PFF defensive grades. The Titans

715
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 3: rank second in coverage right now, so I like that

716
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 3: going up against the Texans. I'm having a really hard

717
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 3: time with this one. I don't even necessarily feel comfortable

718
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 3: teasing it down, you know, to four and a half

719
00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:20,000
Speaker 3: or three and a half or however many points you

720
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 3: want to tease. So I've really got to look into

721
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 3: this one a little bit more. I think it's probably

722
00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 3: the most interesting game when you factor in the spread, though,

723
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:28,560
Speaker 3: just for all the reasons I mentioned.

724
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:30,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you have to stay away from this

725
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 1: one really because the Titans aren't as good as they

726
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,560
Speaker 1: have shown. And I do think that you can sort

727
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 1: of understand that Torod Tayler played terribly when he first

728
00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:41,959
Speaker 1: came back, of course, but he hadn't played in you know,

729
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 1: five or six weeks. We saw with Russell Wilson, we

730
00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 1: saw with Aaron Rodgers, like quarterbacks need time to get

731
00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 1: back into the swing of things, and people were pretty

732
00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 1: excited about what we might see from Tarad Teller. He

733
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 1: is going to start in this game. He definitely has

734
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 1: the potential to keep it close if you get it

735
00:30:57,080 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 1: at more than ten. It's hard for me to not

736
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 1: take the Texans in the divisional game. I'm not running

737
00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 1: out there to do it. I'm not running out to

738
00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:07,640
Speaker 1: sort of take them or anything like that. But if

739
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:09,800
Speaker 1: I do like them, if you do like that spread,

740
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 1: I probably would just take it now because there are

741
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:13,719
Speaker 1: tens out there. Again, for me, at DraftKings at ten

742
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 1: at Fandal, it's ten and a half, so I would

743
00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 1: go there. I don't have a good feel for the spread.

744
00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 1: At forty four and a half, I lean over just

745
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 1: because I do think the Texans might be able to

746
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 1: put up some points in this game, despite the fact

747
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:28,440
Speaker 1: that the Titans defense is excellent. This one is very interesting. Brendan.

748
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 1: I was a big talked a lot when we first

749
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:36,400
Speaker 1: started the show about a sportsbook league that I'm in

750
00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 1: from the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association, where we draft

751
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 1: prop bets, and I think Coach of the Year is

752
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 1: always a prop that is a little more exploitable than

753
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:46,480
Speaker 1: most because if you look back at the history of it,

754
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 1: there is this sort of formula that you could put

755
00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 1: out there that lends itself to winning. And Nick Sirianni

756
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 1: winning Coach of the Year was one of my early

757
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 1: picks and that looked dead in the water. Of course.

758
00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 1: And now you look at the Eagles, who you know,

759
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 1: are now four and six after this game against the Saints.

760
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:07,760
Speaker 1: To talk about one second, they have a very easy

761
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 1: schedule going forward to much It's a lot of NFC East,

762
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 1: it's a lot of Giants, it's a lot of Washington.

763
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:17,560
Speaker 1: This is a big game for them. If they can

764
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:20,080
Speaker 1: win this game, the odds on them to make the

765
00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:22,960
Speaker 1: playoffs are going to skyrocket. It's a one and a

766
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 1: half point spread at home against the Saints. The total

767
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 1: islow to heavily running teams. Now that the Eagles are

768
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 1: at forty four, Brandon, what do you think about this one?

769
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 2: Yeah?

770
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 3: I think probably the most interesting thing about the Eagles

771
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:40,959
Speaker 3: this season is how early on, you know, they were

772
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 3: passing a lot.

773
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 2: You look at passer eight.

774
00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:45,680
Speaker 3: Over expectation, the Eagles were, you know, among the leaders,

775
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:48,880
Speaker 3: and then you rarely see this a team just completely

776
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:52,120
Speaker 3: changed their offensive identity mid season. You know, usually it's

777
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:54,560
Speaker 3: a season of season that happens like what happened to

778
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:57,160
Speaker 3: the Bills from twenty nineteen to twenty. But this year,

779
00:32:57,360 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 3: the Eagles, all of a sudden, they're now you know,

780
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 3: as you said, the most run heavy teams in the NFL.

781
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:04,080
Speaker 3: We know the Saints are a run heavy team, we

782
00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 3: know the Saints like to play at a really slow pace.

783
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 3: All these things lead towards under the issue is, of

784
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 3: course it's a very low number.

785
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:13,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, forty four.

786
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 3: So I think, you know, this is a game, my guess,

787
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 3: and I would want to try to do some more

788
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:22,000
Speaker 3: research into this before confirming it. But if this is

789
00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 3: a spot where you know, people are still wanting to

790
00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 3: go against the egos and we project and forecast the

791
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 3: public to be on the Saints, that this is a

792
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:32,400
Speaker 3: spot that that I would like Philly in this one,

793
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 3: you know, I just there might not be many more

794
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:38,520
Speaker 3: chances to bet against Trevors Simeon on the road in

795
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 3: the season, So it would be.

796
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:42,560
Speaker 1: Simon hasn't been that bad, Brandon like, he's played better

797
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 1: than I expected, don't you think.

798
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 2: Yeah.

799
00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 3: But but at the same time, then we're waiting for

800
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 3: you know, the quote unquote the wheels to fall off

801
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:53,040
Speaker 3: then at that so, I like, I like Philly at home.

802
00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:53,840
Speaker 2: I'm gonna, I'm gonna.

803
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:55,960
Speaker 3: I'm not just trying to hype up your nick Sirianni,

804
00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:58,680
Speaker 3: bet I have little hope for that winning. If I'm

805
00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:01,200
Speaker 3: being fully honest, but we give you this one more week.

806
00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 3: With the Eagles winning.

807
00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:03,600
Speaker 1: Those guys get to the playoffs.

808
00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 2: I'm in.

809
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 1: But yeah, look, I think, really I don't love it

810
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:11,960
Speaker 1: on either side. I haven't gotten a beid on the

811
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 1: Eagles yet, right like I really haven't gotten what they

812
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:18,360
Speaker 1: Maybe Miles Sanders returns that only helps the running back game.

813
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 1: I think this is a game, Brendan, where I want

814
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:23,120
Speaker 1: to tease the Saints up, And you know Matt talks

815
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 1: about a Wong teaser all the time. Again, that's something

816
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 1: you have to bet close to kickoff, but it's when

817
00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 1: the spread is within a certain range and the total

818
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 1: is low and that this game is going to qualify.

819
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:35,400
Speaker 1: I'm almost positive when it gets there. Teasing the Saints

820
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 1: up from one and a half to seven and a

821
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 1: half is probably where I want to go, because again,

822
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:41,279
Speaker 1: the Saints have lost to in a row, but they've

823
00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 1: barely lost. Both you and I were both on the

824
00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:47,120
Speaker 1: Saints against the Titans, so we were sort of rooting

825
00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:48,920
Speaker 1: for the two point conversion to fail because they were

826
00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:50,480
Speaker 1: getting two and a half or three depending on where

827
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 1: you got it. I think they keep this game close,

828
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 1: so I think I will tease the Saints up. I

829
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:55,839
Speaker 1: don't really want a piece of bet I don't want

830
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 1: that total. Man, Like, too many freaky things can happen here.

831
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:03,759
Speaker 1: My opinion with the with the scoring to want to

832
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:06,919
Speaker 1: go after it at forty four. So my real play

833
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:08,840
Speaker 1: right now is to tease the Saints up. I'm not

834
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:10,879
Speaker 1: getting near it as of right now. Anyway, I'll dig

835
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 1: it deeper into it, but I'm not getting near it.

836
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:15,760
Speaker 1: In terms of just the one and a half, Washington

837
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:18,719
Speaker 1: visiting the Panthers, Panthers are laying three and a half

838
00:35:18,880 --> 00:35:22,040
Speaker 1: total is forty three. Sounds like we're gonna see Cam

839
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:26,920
Speaker 1: Newton here, Washington coming off the giant win against the Bucks.

840
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 1: What do you think here?

841
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:30,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, so this is one I'm kind of, you know,

842
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,919
Speaker 3: just gonna go with Washington and take the plus three

843
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 3: and a half. And I think a lot of people

844
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 3: are gonna want to talk themselves into Cam this week.

845
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:39,480
Speaker 3: And you know, that was a really cool, awesome moment

846
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:41,560
Speaker 3: when he came back in and he touched the ball

847
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 3: twice and scored two touchdowns. So I think that's really fun.

848
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 3: You know, I'm a fan of Cam and what he

849
00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:49,359
Speaker 3: did for the Patriots last season. And everything. But I

850
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 3: just think that this the public is gonna just overrate

851
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 3: that factor, and you know, that fact that he's back

852
00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:56,520
Speaker 3: with the Panthers where he won MVP and went to

853
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 3: the super Bowl and whatnot. I don't think he's like

854
00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 3: actually as good as we might think, especially coming off

855
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:05,360
Speaker 3: the two touchdown performance and coming off the Panthers you know,

856
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 3: huge win over the Cardinals. So again, this is just

857
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 3: kind of leaning into that maybe uncomfortable feeling and trying

858
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:13,640
Speaker 3: to go against the public. I'm not a huge fan

859
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:16,719
Speaker 3: of Washington, but I know they lost Chase Young, their

860
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:19,640
Speaker 3: defense has still been improving a little bit overall. I'm

861
00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 3: still just you know, going to take them and the

862
00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:24,520
Speaker 3: points and try to lean into that, you know, back

863
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:26,000
Speaker 3: and forth of the NFL season.

864
00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:28,799
Speaker 1: You know, I lean with you, Brendan. I lean with

865
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:31,359
Speaker 1: taking the hook and taking the points. I do worry

866
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:34,160
Speaker 1: a little bit just because I think that the Panthers

867
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 1: defense is legit, you know, after training for Gilmore and

868
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:40,759
Speaker 1: getting a little more healthier, I wonder whether or not

869
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 1: Washington's going to be able to put up points. And

870
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:44,319
Speaker 1: there's the unknown about what we're going to see from

871
00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:46,759
Speaker 1: Cam running the entire offense like great when you get

872
00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:48,799
Speaker 1: to the goal line. I feel pretty confident that their

873
00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:50,440
Speaker 1: goal line offense is going to be good now that

874
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:53,040
Speaker 1: they have him and they have McCaffrey back, But I

875
00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:54,879
Speaker 1: don't know exactly what we're going to see from him

876
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:57,680
Speaker 1: overall on the season. So I will just take the

877
00:36:57,680 --> 00:36:59,920
Speaker 1: hook right now with Washington. But it's a little on

878
00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 1: comfortable to do, so, you know, mainly because of the defense.

879
00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:06,319
Speaker 1: Let's go to the Bengals are visiting the Raiders. This

880
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:09,520
Speaker 1: is a really interesting one, Brandon, both teams five and four.

881
00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 1: The Bengals on the road are laying a point and

882
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 1: the total is pretty high here forty nine Raiders obviously

883
00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:18,280
Speaker 1: coming off a pretty embarrassing loss here to the Chiefs

884
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 1: in primetime, what do you expect out of this one?

885
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:21,479
Speaker 2: Yeah?

886
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:24,799
Speaker 3: The Bengals really hurt my feelings leading into their bye

887
00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 3: because they had that huge win over the Ravens and

888
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:29,400
Speaker 3: it was like, here they are, They're ready to compete

889
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 3: for the division. You know, it's a young team up

890
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:34,799
Speaker 3: and coming, and then you know, then they just you know,

891
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:36,840
Speaker 3: really they had the Jets loss I think it was,

892
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:38,960
Speaker 3: and then they lost to the Browns and then they

893
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 3: had their by so it's been a while since people

894
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:43,520
Speaker 3: have been high on the Bengals. I kind of wish

895
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:45,600
Speaker 3: they were going up against the team, you know that

896
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:48,759
Speaker 3: didn't just get killed, because you know, I don't want

897
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:50,880
Speaker 3: the Raiders to be you know, this is a must

898
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 3: get right spot for them. But the Bengals coming off

899
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 3: of bye I'm just gonna go with them, even though

900
00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:58,319
Speaker 3: you know, I usually like taking the teams coming off

901
00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:01,279
Speaker 3: a game where they just got killed. I just the

902
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:03,480
Speaker 3: Bengals for a couple of weeks that were really trending

903
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:05,919
Speaker 3: in the right direction. I think, you know, they're still young,

904
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:09,239
Speaker 3: they're figuring some things out. And the Jets lost, you know,

905
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:12,359
Speaker 3: I chalk that up entirely to having the huge win

906
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:15,400
Speaker 3: against the Ravens the week prior. I think the Bengals

907
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:18,240
Speaker 3: their defense is also pretty underrated. I know it didn't

908
00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:20,399
Speaker 3: look as great the past couple of weeks, but they

909
00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 3: were on the right track. I think they can use

910
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 3: the bye week to get back on track. And yeah,

911
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:26,279
Speaker 3: I want to be I want to be out in

912
00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 3: front of this what I forecast a resurgence by the

913
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:30,760
Speaker 3: Bengals moving forward.

914
00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:33,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm on the other side. I think that the Bengals.

915
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:36,720
Speaker 1: I think what's happening here, Brendan is that the Bengals

916
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:41,040
Speaker 1: are being exposed as being overrated, which is what we

917
00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:43,319
Speaker 1: really thought. We didn't expect the Bengals to be quite

918
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:46,759
Speaker 1: this good. Now Burrow has looked good. Jamar Chase is

919
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:49,720
Speaker 1: a superstar. I liked the Higgins a lot. Joe Mixon

920
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:52,240
Speaker 1: is great. Their defense has played much better than expected.

921
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:56,400
Speaker 1: But I just don't think they are what they showed.

922
00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 1: I think this is a regression to the mean. I

923
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:00,840
Speaker 1: think this is a bounce back spot for the Raiders.

924
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:03,440
Speaker 1: Is going to sound dumb. I'm willing to sound dumb,

925
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 1: as you know, often come a young team come in

926
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 1: to Las Vegas. I think we've seen it a little bit.

927
00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:13,120
Speaker 1: It'say tough place sort of to come in and sort

928
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:15,320
Speaker 1: of maintain your focus for a couple of days. I

929
00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:17,400
Speaker 1: think it's a real thing, the home field advantage in

930
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:20,719
Speaker 1: that sense, and I think the Raiders are gonna have

931
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:22,759
Speaker 1: a bounce back spot here. I really do. I mean

932
00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:24,719
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, it was just to get right spot for

933
00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:26,560
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, you know how good they can be. The

934
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:28,360
Speaker 1: Raiders are much much better than they showed. I like

935
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:29,880
Speaker 1: the over two I think both teams are gonna be

936
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:31,239
Speaker 1: able to put up points, so I will take the

937
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:33,360
Speaker 1: over forty nine. You don't have to run to beto

938
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 1: either way. It's plus one, doesn't matter if it goes

939
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:38,000
Speaker 1: to minus one, really cross the zero irrelevant. I think

940
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:40,279
Speaker 1: the Raiders win this game, so I'm willing to take them.

941
00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:41,840
Speaker 1: But I like that We're on a couple of different

942
00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:44,520
Speaker 1: sides here, Brendan. I just, you know, I understand why

943
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:47,319
Speaker 1: you like the Bengals, but for me, I'm selling them.

944
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:50,680
Speaker 1: I don't think they're particularly well coached, and I think

945
00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:52,680
Speaker 1: they're just a young team that's showing some cracks at

946
00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 1: this point. This one's stuff, Brendan, because we don't really

947
00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 1: we have a lot of question marks about the Cardinals

948
00:39:57,640 --> 00:40:00,320
Speaker 1: visiting the Seahawks. At the Cardinals are laying two and

949
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:03,399
Speaker 1: a half, it is possible that both Kyler Murray and

950
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:07,239
Speaker 1: DeAndre Hopkins return. I am betting against both, given the

951
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:09,400
Speaker 1: fact that they have a bye week coming up the

952
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 1: week after. Colt McCoy sounds like he would be healthy

953
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:14,720
Speaker 1: enough to start with his peck injury, but we also

954
00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 1: don't even necessarily know that going forward, so we don't

955
00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:20,760
Speaker 1: know what's going on there. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson coming off

956
00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:22,840
Speaker 1: one of the worst games that I've ever seen a

957
00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:25,360
Speaker 1: quarterback play in my life, you assume with an extra

958
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:28,279
Speaker 1: week now sort of to get acclimated to it, that

959
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:30,480
Speaker 1: he's gonna be better. Maybe we see Chris Carson. So

960
00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:33,279
Speaker 1: the total is fifty in this game. What do you think.

961
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:36,920
Speaker 3: I loved all the jokes about Russell Wilson not getting

962
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 3: enough sleep to get ready for that game, because I

963
00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 3: always find that ridiculous as I am someone who I

964
00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:43,759
Speaker 3: function better when I have sleep, and I know some

965
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:46,279
Speaker 3: of these high end athletes we can't compare ourselves to them,

966
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 3: but it was just insane if he's sleep in three

967
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:50,320
Speaker 3: hours a night and he's out there performing at the

968
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:53,560
Speaker 3: highest level possible. But again, this is you know to me,

969
00:40:54,280 --> 00:40:56,879
Speaker 3: You know, I'm more scared taking the Seahawks. Of course,

970
00:40:56,880 --> 00:40:59,440
Speaker 3: if Kyler plays, even if he's banged up than what

971
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:02,879
Speaker 3: we saw from Colt McCoy this past Sunday. But at

972
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:04,920
Speaker 3: this point, I think, even if Kyler plays, he's going

973
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:06,920
Speaker 3: to be you know, somewhat limited. He's not coming into

974
00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 3: this game, you know, as fresh as humanly possible. And

975
00:41:10,520 --> 00:41:13,680
Speaker 3: for the Seahawks, side of things. You know, divisional game.

976
00:41:13,760 --> 00:41:16,240
Speaker 3: I'll take the points. I'll take them coming off against

977
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:20,080
Speaker 3: a horrible performance, take them at home. Not a lot

978
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:22,719
Speaker 3: of you know, exciting analysis per se, but just trying

979
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:25,640
Speaker 3: to swing him back to the other side of the pendulum.

980
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:28,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think what I really like here is the owner.

981
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:30,919
Speaker 1: I'm surprised that the totals at fifty. I think you're

982
00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:34,800
Speaker 1: going to see a spirited effort from an embarrassed Cardinals defense.

983
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:37,640
Speaker 1: You know that got embarrassed here by the by the Panthers.

984
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:40,640
Speaker 1: And I think the Seahawks defensively have been playing better here,

985
00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:43,239
Speaker 1: especially with the potential for no Kyler Murray or a

986
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:46,360
Speaker 1: limited Kyler Murray. Like I will go under on this one.

987
00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:48,400
Speaker 1: The spread, I just I find it very difficult to

988
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:51,840
Speaker 1: bet this spread with all the question marks, So probably

989
00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:52,360
Speaker 1: a stay.

990
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:52,600
Speaker 2: Away from me.

991
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 1: I could see maybe teasing the Seahawks up to eight

992
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:58,439
Speaker 1: and a half, you know, right now, But it's still

993
00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:01,480
Speaker 1: something where I am saying away a really good game

994
00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 1: that everybody's gonna want to watch. The Cowboys are visiting

995
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:06,880
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. The Chiefs are laying two and a half

996
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:12,799
Speaker 1: with a total fifty five and a half. Brendan, what

997
00:42:12,800 --> 00:42:13,239
Speaker 1: do you think.

998
00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:16,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, so again, this is one I kind of the

999
00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:20,040
Speaker 3: Dallas is one of the most you know, public bet

1000
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 3: teams in the league for obvious reasons, and I really

1001
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 3: for a while, you know, the Chiefs were too, So

1002
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:26,560
Speaker 3: I really wish this was one where it's like, oh,

1003
00:42:26,560 --> 00:42:28,840
Speaker 3: we can short the Chiefs yet again, because now everyone's

1004
00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:32,239
Speaker 3: gonna think they're back. I think Dallas matches up just like,

1005
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:34,680
Speaker 3: really well with the Chiefs. I like Dallas a lot

1006
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:36,759
Speaker 3: in general. I like that their offense can win in

1007
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:39,440
Speaker 3: multiple ways. They can go, you know, really run heavy

1008
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:41,719
Speaker 3: with all the linemen and the tight ends and Zeke

1009
00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:44,040
Speaker 3: and Pollard. Then they can spread it out with all

1010
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:46,800
Speaker 3: the receivers and gallops back. So I like that aspect

1011
00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:50,240
Speaker 3: of them. I think their defense is, you know, very opportunistic.

1012
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:52,799
Speaker 3: It's not necessarily shut down. You know, Trayvon Diggs even

1013
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:54,799
Speaker 3: he'll give up some big plays and then he'll make

1014
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:56,880
Speaker 3: some big plays, so it's kind of a bit of

1015
00:42:56,920 --> 00:42:59,480
Speaker 3: a give and take with that. I just think they

1016
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:01,600
Speaker 3: match up well, and I'm trying not to, you know,

1017
00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:03,879
Speaker 3: put on my film hat and watch it all twenty

1018
00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:06,799
Speaker 3: two necessarily, But Dallas, you know, they can run the

1019
00:43:06,800 --> 00:43:09,719
Speaker 3: ball and control the clock. I'm not sold on the

1020
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:12,439
Speaker 3: Chiefs being you know, fully back just because they beat

1021
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:16,319
Speaker 3: the Raiders. So I'm definitely leading Dallas early on. It's

1022
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:19,400
Speaker 3: going to scare me a little if the entire public

1023
00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:20,800
Speaker 3: is with me. But some of that, you know, is

1024
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:22,040
Speaker 3: just a lot of Dallas fans.

1025
00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:25,279
Speaker 1: So yeah, do you think this is where it ends up?

1026
00:43:25,320 --> 00:43:27,839
Speaker 1: I mean, books are universal at two and a half

1027
00:43:28,080 --> 00:43:30,400
Speaker 1: right now. I guess there are a couple of random

1028
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:34,240
Speaker 1: twos out there, But if you're someone who backs the Cowboys,

1029
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:36,440
Speaker 1: you think there's any chances gets to three or do

1030
00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:37,680
Speaker 1: you think it sits a two and a half?

1031
00:43:38,239 --> 00:43:38,799
Speaker 2: I think it could.

1032
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:40,600
Speaker 3: I think I could also see the over you know,

1033
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 3: ticking up a little bit more as well, as people

1034
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:45,400
Speaker 3: do some more research into that there are.

1035
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:47,360
Speaker 1: Some fifty five and a halfs out there already.

1036
00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:48,120
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1037
00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:49,880
Speaker 1: I don't have a great feel for it, man, I

1038
00:43:49,920 --> 00:43:53,520
Speaker 1: really don't. The Cowboys, especially with Michael Gallop back offensively,

1039
00:43:53,600 --> 00:43:55,480
Speaker 1: it's just so difficult to think about how you're going

1040
00:43:55,560 --> 00:43:57,920
Speaker 1: to stop them. But maybe the Chiefs have really figured

1041
00:43:57,920 --> 00:43:59,720
Speaker 1: something out, and if they have, there is no defense

1042
00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:03,439
Speaker 1: I can stop them. So yeah, I'll probably stay away

1043
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:06,319
Speaker 1: and just enjoy this one with some popcorn. But it's

1044
00:44:06,360 --> 00:44:09,640
Speaker 1: an interesting one. Steelers are visiting the Chargers on Sunday

1045
00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 1: Night Football. The Chargers currently are laying four and a

1046
00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:15,520
Speaker 1: half and the total is forty seven. We obviously have

1047
00:44:15,560 --> 00:44:17,560
Speaker 1: some question marks here about who's going to play quarterback

1048
00:44:18,080 --> 00:44:21,960
Speaker 1: for the Steelers. And as much as we you know,

1049
00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:26,040
Speaker 1: lament Ben Roethlisberger's performance this entire season, you see what

1050
00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:28,000
Speaker 1: happens when you go to Mason Rudolph. It is a

1051
00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:32,280
Speaker 1: different you know, it's a different ballgame completely. I assume

1052
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:34,080
Speaker 1: Chase Claypole is not going to be ready to return

1053
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:38,839
Speaker 1: for this week. So Chargers also looking very uneven lately

1054
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 1: in their performance, laying four and a half at home,

1055
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:43,239
Speaker 1: and again the total is forty seven. What do you think?

1056
00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:45,919
Speaker 3: This might be one of my favorites of the week

1057
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:48,800
Speaker 3: and that's taken the Steelers this past Sunday. I didn't

1058
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:51,680
Speaker 3: really it didn't really matter to me. Rudolph or Big Ben.

1059
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:54,879
Speaker 3: We've seen that game twenty five times from the Mike

1060
00:44:54,920 --> 00:44:58,759
Speaker 3: Tomlin era, they're huge favorites at home. They never cover those. Yeah,

1061
00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:01,520
Speaker 3: like Tom Tomlin, he can play down to the competition

1062
00:45:01,680 --> 00:45:04,080
Speaker 3: or he can play up to the competition. So I

1063
00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:06,880
Speaker 3: definitely prefer taking the Steelers when they're underdogs. It's a

1064
00:45:06,920 --> 00:45:09,760
Speaker 3: little concerning. We don't know the exact status of both TJ.

1065
00:45:09,880 --> 00:45:12,520
Speaker 3: Watt and Mika Fitzpatrick. You know, Wat's got the injury.

1066
00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:15,719
Speaker 3: Fitzpatrick's on the reserve COVID list right now. The other

1067
00:45:15,719 --> 00:45:17,680
Speaker 3: thing is just I want to keep shorting the Chargers.

1068
00:45:17,680 --> 00:45:19,000
Speaker 3: So this is an instance where I want to be

1069
00:45:19,040 --> 00:45:21,200
Speaker 3: in on the Steelers and short the Chargers, which is

1070
00:45:21,200 --> 00:45:24,280
Speaker 3: why I feel so strongly about it. And the Chargers

1071
00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:26,719
Speaker 3: just this this Joe Lombardi offense. I've been doing a

1072
00:45:26,760 --> 00:45:29,439
Speaker 3: lot of reading about how he really took the Drew

1073
00:45:29,480 --> 00:45:31,920
Speaker 3: Bees offense, which you know, we know Breeze is just

1074
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:34,680
Speaker 3: the master of accuracy and you know, short a dot

1075
00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:37,640
Speaker 3: throws and that's really not Herbert's game. You know, Herbert

1076
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:40,239
Speaker 3: has a rocket for an arm. His his accuracy has

1077
00:45:40,280 --> 00:45:43,360
Speaker 3: improved since college, but it isn't, you know, necessarily nearly

1078
00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:46,680
Speaker 3: in the same range as Breeze. I just you know,

1079
00:45:46,719 --> 00:45:50,000
Speaker 3: the Chargers, the offensive line, the right side especially, he

1080
00:45:50,080 --> 00:45:52,319
Speaker 3: is dealing with some injuries, and you know, this is

1081
00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:54,600
Speaker 3: just the Steelers coming off the other side of a

1082
00:45:54,600 --> 00:45:57,240
Speaker 3: disappointing game. I want to keep going against the Chargers

1083
00:45:57,239 --> 00:45:59,000
Speaker 3: when I can, and I do trust the Steelers in

1084
00:45:59,000 --> 00:45:59,400
Speaker 3: the spot.

1085
00:45:59,480 --> 00:46:02,439
Speaker 1: So you're fine with it even if it's Rudolph. Yes,

1086
00:46:03,239 --> 00:46:05,440
Speaker 1: all right. I By the way, I agree with you

1087
00:46:05,440 --> 00:46:07,880
Speaker 1: about the Lombardi offense, and I think I referenced it

1088
00:46:07,920 --> 00:46:10,120
Speaker 1: in the preseason when I was talking about the fact that,

1089
00:46:10,360 --> 00:46:13,760
Speaker 1: you know, the offense that the Chargers ran for Herbert

1090
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 1: obviously in his rookie season, was a very sort of

1091
00:46:17,800 --> 00:46:21,360
Speaker 1: quarterback friendly offense. The Lombardi offense is much more complicated,

1092
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:24,720
Speaker 1: much more difficult for a quarterback, a young quarterback especially

1093
00:46:24,880 --> 00:46:26,400
Speaker 1: to be able to implement. And we kind of just

1094
00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:29,160
Speaker 1: disregarded that because Staley looked like just such a good

1095
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:32,040
Speaker 1: coach and everything good. But yeah, Herbert really has half

1096
00:46:32,080 --> 00:46:34,799
Speaker 1: the games he just basically does not do anything with.

1097
00:46:35,560 --> 00:46:38,480
Speaker 1: So yeah, definitely a spot where you back with Steelers

1098
00:46:38,480 --> 00:46:41,040
Speaker 1: for sure. The Mike Tomlin ra ra and nobody believes

1099
00:46:41,040 --> 00:46:43,960
Speaker 1: in us, you know, spot, This is very hard for

1100
00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:47,000
Speaker 1: me to do with the with Mason Rodolf So I'll

1101
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:49,839
Speaker 1: probably wait. I wonder what happens to the spread if

1102
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:51,919
Speaker 1: we learn that Roethlisberger is coming back, I do think

1103
00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:54,840
Speaker 1: you'll still see the Chargers favored by probably more than

1104
00:46:54,840 --> 00:46:56,480
Speaker 1: the field goal. So I'm okay to wait on it

1105
00:46:56,520 --> 00:46:58,560
Speaker 1: because I don't think I could do it with Mason Rudolf.

1106
00:46:58,719 --> 00:47:00,520
Speaker 1: But you make the points. It is the spot I

1107
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:01,840
Speaker 1: think for the Steelers.

1108
00:47:02,280 --> 00:47:04,040
Speaker 3: I think last week the spread only changed. I think

1109
00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:05,960
Speaker 3: it was one and a half point. The spread chains

1110
00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:07,799
Speaker 3: once Ben was ruled out, So that just shows where

1111
00:47:07,800 --> 00:47:08,479
Speaker 3: we're at with Ben.

1112
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 1: I do wonder though, whether or not they think the

1113
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:12,359
Speaker 1: same thing now that they saw that game and it

1114
00:47:12,400 --> 00:47:14,640
Speaker 1: was in the rain, and it was terrible, but fifty

1115
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:16,600
Speaker 1: pass attempts, he couldn't do anything with it. Some of

1116
00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:18,560
Speaker 1: the throws were just garbage.

1117
00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:18,840
Speaker 2: Do you know?

1118
00:47:18,840 --> 00:47:20,719
Speaker 1: At least Ben knows how to run the offense a

1119
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 1: little bit better. And again, Bason Rodolph is better at

1120
00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:26,000
Speaker 1: being a professional football player playing football than I will

1121
00:47:26,000 --> 00:47:28,319
Speaker 1: ever be at anything in my life. So stayed out there.

1122
00:47:28,360 --> 00:47:30,080
Speaker 1: I'm not insulting the guy, but there is a big

1123
00:47:30,160 --> 00:47:32,880
Speaker 1: drop off, I think, even at this stage of his career,

1124
00:47:33,440 --> 00:47:36,080
Speaker 1: from Ben to him. Last game Monday Night Football Bucks

1125
00:47:36,120 --> 00:47:38,120
Speaker 1: are taking on the Giants. Surprising loss here for the

1126
00:47:38,120 --> 00:47:40,680
Speaker 1: Bucks coming off the by laying ten and a half

1127
00:47:40,760 --> 00:47:44,080
Speaker 1: to the Giants total is fifty. Obviously some question marks.

1128
00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:47,120
Speaker 1: Maybe Antonio Brown comes back, sounds like Gronk probably won't

1129
00:47:47,200 --> 00:47:50,400
Speaker 1: for the Giants. Maybe Saquan comes back. That sounds like

1130
00:47:50,440 --> 00:47:52,719
Speaker 1: it's probably going to happen at this point. Maybe they

1131
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:56,560
Speaker 1: get a little healthier here at wide receiver. I don't know,

1132
00:47:56,680 --> 00:47:58,440
Speaker 1: what do you think the Giants is in the Bucks

1133
00:47:58,440 --> 00:47:59,120
Speaker 1: ten and a half?

1134
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:01,200
Speaker 2: Really strange performance.

1135
00:48:01,560 --> 00:48:04,399
Speaker 3: I don't know anyone who is really on Washington last week,

1136
00:48:04,440 --> 00:48:06,560
Speaker 3: and it kind of feels like, you know, on the

1137
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:08,160
Speaker 3: one hand, we want to take the Giants and the

1138
00:48:08,200 --> 00:48:10,120
Speaker 3: points and see if they can you know, sneak up

1139
00:48:10,120 --> 00:48:11,800
Speaker 3: on the Bucks again. But the fact that the Bucks

1140
00:48:11,840 --> 00:48:14,080
Speaker 3: just had that game where they kind of laid an

1141
00:48:14,120 --> 00:48:16,480
Speaker 3: egg and they weren't great against the Saints before the bye,

1142
00:48:16,560 --> 00:48:19,240
Speaker 3: so it feels like we're due for you know, a Bucks,

1143
00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:21,640
Speaker 3: you know, a really good Bucks game.

1144
00:48:21,680 --> 00:48:22,000
Speaker 2: Here.

1145
00:48:22,440 --> 00:48:24,279
Speaker 3: It's a stayaway for me. I don't have a lean

1146
00:48:24,320 --> 00:48:25,880
Speaker 3: one way or the other. I can't decide yet. I

1147
00:48:25,880 --> 00:48:27,840
Speaker 3: want to see a lot of the injury report stuff.

1148
00:48:28,000 --> 00:48:30,120
Speaker 3: In addition to Brown and Gronk, I want to see,

1149
00:48:30,120 --> 00:48:32,360
Speaker 3: if you know, god Win's even practicing because you know,

1150
00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:36,040
Speaker 3: he was really questionable coming into this one. Vita Vea

1151
00:48:36,160 --> 00:48:39,920
Speaker 3: got hurt, which is sure hurt pregame. It's really piling up,

1152
00:48:39,920 --> 00:48:42,520
Speaker 3: and like you said, the Giants have squand coming back

1153
00:48:42,560 --> 00:48:45,120
Speaker 3: and they're coming off a bye. So I need, definitely

1154
00:48:45,160 --> 00:48:47,600
Speaker 3: need more time for this one. It's a stay away

1155
00:48:47,680 --> 00:48:48,279
Speaker 3: as of now.

1156
00:48:48,680 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, you know, Danny Dams usually plays a

1157
00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:53,120
Speaker 1: little bit better on the road. He covers more often

1158
00:48:53,160 --> 00:48:55,279
Speaker 1: than not. I agreed to stay away. The Bucks have

1159
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:57,279
Speaker 1: a lot of question marks. You did mention Veya. That's

1160
00:48:57,320 --> 00:48:59,640
Speaker 1: a huge blow to their run defense, which hadn't been

1161
00:48:59,719 --> 00:49:01,880
Speaker 1: quite as infallible as it had looked early on in

1162
00:49:01,880 --> 00:49:04,640
Speaker 1: this season. Anyway, you could see a complete bounce back

1163
00:49:04,680 --> 00:49:07,719
Speaker 1: spot here from the Bucks. So this is one where

1164
00:49:07,719 --> 00:49:10,080
Speaker 1: I'm gonna sit back again. I don't think it's really

1165
00:49:10,120 --> 00:49:12,200
Speaker 1: going to get to ten. It's ten and a half

1166
00:49:12,280 --> 00:49:14,480
Speaker 1: eleven in some books right now. I think that's probably

1167
00:49:14,840 --> 00:49:16,920
Speaker 1: where it ends up. So no reason to run to

1168
00:49:17,000 --> 00:49:18,960
Speaker 1: do it. Brendan, thank you so much for joining me today.

1169
00:49:18,960 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 1: I love taking the early looks. Remind everybody where they

1170
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:22,760
Speaker 1: can find more of you and your work.

1171
00:49:23,480 --> 00:49:26,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I'm on Twitter at too much tumor right

1172
00:49:26,239 --> 00:49:29,680
Speaker 3: the Five Burning Questions article every Thursday for Fantasy Pros

1173
00:49:29,719 --> 00:49:32,400
Speaker 3: have been helping out a little bit with the primer

1174
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:33,920
Speaker 3: as well and having a lot of fun with that.

1175
00:49:34,040 --> 00:49:36,000
Speaker 3: So I feel like in the zone. It's week eleven

1176
00:49:36,080 --> 00:49:38,520
Speaker 3: in the NFL. We are deep in the weeds right now.

1177
00:49:38,560 --> 00:49:41,640
Speaker 3: There's no sign of coming out of it just yet.

1178
00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:43,839
Speaker 3: So I know you and I are loving it though,

1179
00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:45,719
Speaker 3: and yeah, we're just going to stay in and try

1180
00:49:45,760 --> 00:49:48,040
Speaker 3: to do what we can to help readers and listeners,

1181
00:49:48,080 --> 00:49:50,240
Speaker 3: you know, win some money and win their leagues.

1182
00:49:50,440 --> 00:49:52,080
Speaker 1: We'll be back later in the weekends you guys. No,

1183
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:54,640
Speaker 1: Joe will be doing the College Football podcast. I will

1184
00:49:54,680 --> 00:49:58,640
Speaker 1: be doing the Week eleven Best Bets NFL podcast. I

1185
00:49:58,640 --> 00:50:01,240
Speaker 1: will try to bounce back from a subpar week, admittedly

1186
00:50:01,239 --> 00:50:03,279
Speaker 1: at least with the picks I gave out, but it

1187
00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:04,960
Speaker 1: would be a good show, so please join us. Then,

1188
00:50:05,000 --> 00:50:06,560
Speaker 1: in the meantime, enjoy the rest of your week.

1189
00:50:06,719 --> 00:50:18,000
Speaker 4: We'll talk to again in a couple of days.

1190
00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:26,680
Speaker 1: M