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Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound On.

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Speaker 1: I'm a little bit unimpressed of the discipline in the

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Speaker 1: training level of the Russian forces ass Had and as

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Speaker 1: terrific as it is, we want to make sure that

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Speaker 1: we do not see an escalation. Bloomberg Sound On, Politics,

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Speaker 1: Policy and perspective from DC's top name. I sent to

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Speaker 1: the commodity person who were made very high elevated certainly

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Speaker 1: over the next year, but it's probably first after the year.

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Speaker 1: You Republicans want to give Democrat Day victory on getting

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Speaker 1: public China on a political basist, the answer is no.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. To

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Speaker 1: ban or not to ban? That is the question Washington

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Speaker 1: has been grappling with today when it comes to buying

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Speaker 1: Russian crude oil. We're going to dig into that in

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Speaker 1: the next hour on sound On. This is Emily Wilkins

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Speaker 1: here with my co host Jack Fitzpatrick. We're filling in

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Speaker 1: today for Joe Matthew will be speaking in a little

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Speaker 1: bit later with the White Houses Jared Bernstein. Well, Washington

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Speaker 1: has had its focus on Ukraine for the last week,

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Speaker 1: and the latest debate is whether there should be a

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Speaker 1: ban on Russian oil. So far, the White House has

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Speaker 1: been leery of such a band. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally

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Speaker 1: Adiamo spoke earlier today on Bloomberg Surveillance about the need

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Speaker 1: to ensure that Americans have a steady oil supply. We're

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Speaker 1: focused on making sure that the energy markets are well

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Speaker 1: supplied today because we want to make sure costs or

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Speaker 1: reduced for American people today, and we're depriving President Putin

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Speaker 1: of the resources he needs to fight the war today.

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Speaker 1: Over time, we need to do more to make sure

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Speaker 1: that the energy market is well supplied, and we're also

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Speaker 1: focused on that as well. Concerns about Russia and Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: concerns about gas prices. Well. Here to discuss the mood

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Speaker 1: on Capitol Hill among Democrats in Congress is Congresswoman Deborah Ross,

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Speaker 1: a Democrat from North Carolina. Congresswoman, thank you so much

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Speaker 1: for joining us today. Yesterday, how Speaker Nancy Pelosi was

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Speaker 1: asked whether there should be a ban on US imports

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Speaker 1: of Russia crude oil. She did not mince word. She said,

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Speaker 1: I'm all for it, bannet. Congressman Ross, is this sentiment

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Speaker 1: shared widely within Democrats on the Hill. Well, first of all,

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Speaker 1: I'm thrilled to be with you. This is my first

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Speaker 1: time on this show and it's so exciting. I think,

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Speaker 1: thank you. UM. I think the Democrats on the Hill

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Speaker 1: want to make sure that we minimize the impact of

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Speaker 1: the Ukrainian war on our supplies of oil. And Democrats

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Speaker 1: want to find different sources of oil for our needs

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Speaker 1: and for our allies needs, including in the Middle East.

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Speaker 1: And I know that the Biden administration has worked hard

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Speaker 1: on that. Of course, because the Iran nuclear deal was scuttled,

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Speaker 1: um being able to access that oil from Iran um

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Speaker 1: has gone away. But we need to be able to

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Speaker 1: satisfy and deal with our needs and reduce our needs

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Speaker 1: in our policies, and so that all those combinations will

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Speaker 1: make sure that we don't have to rely on Russia

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Speaker 1: for oil. And in Congressman, I do want to just

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Speaker 1: take a minute a red Headlines now crossing the terminal,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg is going to temporarily halt the work of its

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Speaker 1: journalists in Russia. I know that Bloomberg is certainly not

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Speaker 1: the only news organization to sort of be rethinking its

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Speaker 1: coverage in the region right now, but Congressman, I know

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Speaker 1: before you came to Congress you did some work with

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Speaker 1: renewable energy. Are you worried that that a push to

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Speaker 1: ban Russian oil could lead to more production of non renewables.

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Speaker 1: I think that might be a short term consequence, but

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Speaker 1: I actually think that, um, this whole situation with oil

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Speaker 1: prices spiking shows the need for us to get more

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Speaker 1: renewable energy that is dependable as soon as possible. The

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Speaker 1: key is to be energy independent, and the less we

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Speaker 1: rely on fossil fuels, the better. And I'm proud that

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Speaker 1: the Briden administration is pushing this. Democrats in Congress are

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Speaker 1: pushing this. Many of the things that Democrats have done

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Speaker 1: over the years to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels

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Speaker 1: are things that are making our current situation better, like

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Speaker 1: fuel economy standards, like electric vehicles. All of these things

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Speaker 1: lead to energy independence and are very good for the

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Speaker 1: country and the rest of the world. So, Congresswoman Uh.

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Speaker 1: The way Senator Joe Manchin recently put it when he

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Speaker 1: spoke in favor of cutting off Russian oil to the

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Speaker 1: US was that he'd be okay paying something like ten

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Speaker 1: cents a gallon more for gas According to the e

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Speaker 1: i A, we get about three per cent of our

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Speaker 1: imports of oil from Russia. That doesn't sound like a

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Speaker 1: very big number. It does seem the White House, once

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Speaker 1: to UH, wants to limit the effect on American gas prices.

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Speaker 1: What do you actually think these kinds of limitations would

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Speaker 1: do to American gas prices? Would it be noticeable? Well,

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Speaker 1: I'm not an expert on gas pricing, but it is

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Speaker 1: supply and demand, and again, there are lots of places

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Speaker 1: we can get this supply, and we need to reduce

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Speaker 1: our demand by having alternative ways of empowering our cars

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Speaker 1: and heating our homes, and so the combination of looking

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Speaker 1: for other sources, UM, working with our allies, and reducing

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Speaker 1: our demand should reduce the price. Carcusson, I also want

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Speaker 1: to talk for a minute about the job s report

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Speaker 1: we got today, an increase of six thousand jobs in February,

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Speaker 1: better than what the experts expected. UH. This currently seems

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Speaker 1: to show that we're coming a bit out of the pandemic.

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Speaker 1: But at the same time, we saw the unemployment rate

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Speaker 1: for black women increase. I'm just wondering what your takeaway

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Speaker 1: is here and what your thoughts are on what Congress

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Speaker 1: needs to do if anything, well, Number one, UM, what

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Speaker 1: has happened since the Biden administration has taken office in

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Speaker 1: terms of jobs and the economy has been UM wonderful

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Speaker 1: and the growth has been incredible. But that growth does

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Speaker 1: not affect everybody, and in particular people who are still

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Speaker 1: struggling UM during the pandemic with issues like childcare. And

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Speaker 1: of course the child tax credit UM, which lifted so

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Speaker 1: many children out of poverty has expired. We've got to

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Speaker 1: get it back. We've got to make it permanent. UM. Schools.

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Speaker 1: On the chance of that happening, if I can just

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Speaker 1: cut in your for a second here, I mean, I

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Speaker 1: know that we've talked about the child tax Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think that there is a chance of that happening. I

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Speaker 1: think it's widely popular. UM. It affects working families. It again,

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Speaker 1: it has lifted children out of it has given families

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Speaker 1: a sense of financial security. UM. I've heard from people

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Speaker 1: in my district. As a matter of fact, I gave

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Speaker 1: a floor speech about it UM for a working mom

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Speaker 1: where she said it made all the difference between being

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Speaker 1: able to pay for child care and being able to

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Speaker 1: pay for school supplies. So there are impediments to all

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Speaker 1: women getting back to work, but in particular um single parents,

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Speaker 1: and we need to make sure, of course we need

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Speaker 1: them in these jobs because there's so many job openings

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Speaker 1: that what we do is enact family friendly policies that

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Speaker 1: make sure kids are taken care of and make sure

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Speaker 1: parents can get back to work in these jobs that

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Speaker 1: are open. So, Congresswoman, aside from the exact details of

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Speaker 1: what would be in this uh sort of BBB re

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Speaker 1: DUX bill, I'm curious about the top line because Senator

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Speaker 1: Mansion is saying he'd be comfortable with if you get

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Speaker 1: about one point seven trillion in revel new from tax measures,

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Speaker 1: maybe use half of that to reduce the deficit and

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Speaker 1: the other half for things you like. Are you comfortable

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Speaker 1: with a bill that's sort of focused on just cutting

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Speaker 1: the deficit and only half of that revenue goes to

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Speaker 1: whether parts of the CTC or climate or whatever. What

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Speaker 1: do you think about that broader idea? Well, the build

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Speaker 1: back Better original plan mostly paid for itself, largely paid

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Speaker 1: for itself, and so what we need to do is

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Speaker 1: make sure that we do things that stimulate our economy

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Speaker 1: so that we have money. And we've seen that in

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Speaker 1: state governments. We've seen that even in UM in the

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Speaker 1: federal budget, that if our economy is humming, then our

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Speaker 1: deficit goes down, and so we need to make sure

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Speaker 1: that we have the proper balance. I think we need

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Speaker 1: to invest in our people first and foremost. We saw

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Speaker 1: historic tax cuts that only went to the richest American

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Speaker 1: and contributed to that budget on deficit. And what we

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Speaker 1: need to do now is invest in our people. Well,

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Speaker 1: speaking of funding, we have the build that funds the

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Speaker 1: government that needs to be passed by marchal leventh to

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Speaker 1: avoid a government shutdown. And I know something a little

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Speaker 1: bit unique this year compared to the last previous several

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Speaker 1: years is that you have earmarks in their specific amounts

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Speaker 1: of funding for various districts. Congressman, I believe you've got

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Speaker 1: ten million dollars in specific projects to your district. How

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Speaker 1: has it impacted your constituents that they haven't gotten this

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Speaker 1: this funding yet, UM, so far past the date where

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Speaker 1: the new fiscal year was supposed to begin. Well, they're

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Speaker 1: waiting with bated breath, UM to see whether or not

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Speaker 1: they receive some of these UM funds and some of

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Speaker 1: the ones that I've asked for I, I asked for

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Speaker 1: funds that would help with education, UM with a new

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Speaker 1: DNA testing lab in in Wake County. I asked for

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Speaker 1: funds would help with affordable housing. And so some of

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Speaker 1: these projects are moving along, but they would move along

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Speaker 1: much more quickly if the federal government invested. And UM,

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Speaker 1: we're seeing that all over the country. And what I

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Speaker 1: would say about these projects, particularly the ones that I

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Speaker 1: asked for, these are projects that don't just help a

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Speaker 1: small segment of the population. They help with fighting crime,

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Speaker 1: They help with affordable housing, which we know is in

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Speaker 1: crisis all over this country, but particularly in growing areas

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Speaker 1: like Wake County, and so UM, I am hopeful that

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Speaker 1: we'll see this money coming sooner rather than later. Congressman,

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Speaker 1: I want to ask real quick, since you're on the

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Speaker 1: Rules Committee, we're still waiting on that omnibus bill to

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Speaker 1: come out. The deadline to avoid a shutdown is Friday.

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Speaker 1: Are you guys going to be able to send it

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Speaker 1: to the floor maybe on Monday or how fast do

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Speaker 1: you think the House can move on that? Well, the

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Speaker 1: Most Committee always does its job and is willing to

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Speaker 1: meet UM late into the evening and into the wee hours.

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Speaker 1: That we're a hard working committee. UM. We haven't gotten

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Speaker 1: the notice yet, UM, but I'm planning to be in

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Speaker 1: on d C. Brighton early on Monday morning. And if

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Speaker 1: we get a notice that says we need to be

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Speaker 1: there any earlier, I will get on a plane and

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Speaker 1: do it. And so we will get as soon as

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Speaker 1: we get um the Omnibus. We will do our jobs

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Speaker 1: so that we can vote well. Congresswoman debor Ross, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much for joining us on Bloomberg's sound down.

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Speaker 1: That was Congressman Deva Ross, Uh North Carolina Democrat. Coming up.

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Speaker 1: We assemble the panel with Bloomberg contributors Jeanie Schanzano and

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Speaker 1: Brick Davis, and later we'll speak with Jared Bernstein from

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Speaker 1: the White House. I'm Emily Wilkins. This is Bloomberg. The

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Speaker 1: Biden administration is considering a ban on US imports of

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Speaker 1: Russian oil. Are colleagues report on the Bloomberg terminal this afternoon,

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Speaker 1: citing people familiar with those conversations, the President had previously

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Speaker 1: held out fearing higher energy prices here in the US.

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Speaker 1: Then again, the administration definitely does expect that sanctions will

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Speaker 1: be effective. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken was in Brussels

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Speaker 1: today for meetings on Russia and Ukraine with European Council. Secretary.

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Speaker 1: Blinkoln told reporters he is quote very confident that they

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Speaker 1: will succeed in stopping Vladimir Putin's violation of basic rights

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Speaker 1: of nation's sovereignty. Let's play that sound. If we allow

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Speaker 1: those principles to be challenged as Putin is doing now

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Speaker 1: with impunity, that will open a Pandora's box of trouble

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Speaker 1: for not just us, but quite frankly, for the entire world.

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Speaker 1: I'm Jack Fitzpatrick here with my Bloomberg Government colleague Emily Wilkins.

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Speaker 1: Let's bring in the panel our favorite Bloomberg Politics contributors,

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Speaker 1: Jeanie she and Zano and Rick Davis. Rick, let's start

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Speaker 1: with you, as cong risk forces a hard discussion on

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Speaker 1: how far we go with sanctions, exactly what we target.

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Speaker 1: We've heard proposals ranging from a variety of Republicans to

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Speaker 1: Joe Mansion all the way to Ed Markey, the Progressive senator,

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Speaker 1: that we should cut off Russian oil imports in the US.

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Speaker 1: I'm curious, do you see them forcing Biden's hand? How

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Speaker 1: do you see this playing out. You know, it's a

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Speaker 1: good question. I don't know who strikes first. As you

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Speaker 1: point out, there is no ideological differences and how people

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Speaker 1: view Russia oil these days. Um, Conservatives, liberals, progressives, moderates,

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Speaker 1: all like, uh see the wisdom in trying to find

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Speaker 1: a way to cut off our our use of Russian

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Speaker 1: oil and uh, And I think it's just gonna be

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Speaker 1: a race to the finish line. Congress could act and

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Speaker 1: send a bill to to the president, or the President

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Speaker 1: could actually unilaterally get moving on this. And I would

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Speaker 1: have said Congress was in the league yesterday, but it

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Speaker 1: looks like from your reporting that the Biden administration might

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Speaker 1: be figuring this out for themselves, and we could probably

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Speaker 1: learn something as long as this weekend. You know, Gene,

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Speaker 1: it seems like what would happen if we did ban

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Speaker 1: these Russian oil imports is that it would drive up

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Speaker 1: gas prices at the pomp for Americans. And I'm wondering

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Speaker 1: if that indeed does come to pass, would there be

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Speaker 1: a do you do you have a sense whether Americans

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Speaker 1: would be supportive of that with are they supportive enough

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Speaker 1: of Ukraine, cognizant enough of the crisis in Ukraine? That

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Speaker 1: they might actually be okay with their gas price going

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Speaker 1: up a few cents. Well, this is one of the

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Speaker 1: things that when we were listening to the State of

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Speaker 1: the Union, I personally wanted the President to address more.

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Speaker 1: Was this issue you just raised Emily of sacrifice, because

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Speaker 1: that's what it's going to require. And you know, one

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Speaker 1: of the big questions just to step back here on

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Speaker 1: this issue of energy is the White House is considering

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Speaker 1: and I think rightly so does this just hurt the buyer?

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Speaker 1: In other words, does Russia just start selling to other

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Speaker 1: markets like China, like India that has been raised. And

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Speaker 1: if that's the case and it doesn't impact them, but

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Speaker 1: the impact is on the buyer, then this may be

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Speaker 1: a good idea in theory, but and it has a

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Speaker 1: lot of support as as Rick and Jackers is talking about,

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Speaker 1: but may not be one that is good to pursue.

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Speaker 1: So I think that has to be a really serious

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Speaker 1: consideration before they go into this direction. Well, Jennie, let

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Speaker 1: me ask you then, you know, when when I look

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Speaker 1: at the statistic that we get about three per cent

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Speaker 1: of our oil imports in the US from Russia, what

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Speaker 1: does that do to broader energy prices in the US

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Speaker 1: or is this more political because gasoline prices in particular

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Speaker 1: are so why it's it's very transparent. You drive down

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Speaker 1: the road, you see gas prices on a big sign.

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Speaker 1: Is this really an economic issue or is it more

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Speaker 1: of a political issue to the Biden administration? You know,

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Speaker 1: I think it's both. As we look people saying that

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Speaker 1: California is about to hit five dollars and you guys

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Speaker 1: know better than I do it if they haven't already, Um,

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Speaker 1: I know, and we all know as we've all up

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Speaker 1: our cars. It is something we feel in our pocketbook.

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Speaker 1: And it's also a political issue. You know. One of

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Speaker 1: the things that I hear people say when you talk

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Speaker 1: to them about this, if it's between roughly three to

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Speaker 1: eight percent, why can't we make that up? And I

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Speaker 1: think if we go in that direction, there's going to

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Speaker 1: have to be a hard conversation with Democrats and Republicans

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Speaker 1: about how you make that up. And of course Democrats

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Speaker 1: don't want Biden to go back on restricting production in

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Speaker 1: the pipelines, and that's exactly where Republicans are heading. And

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Speaker 1: so Jack, to your point, that becomes a real political

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Speaker 1: problem for the Biden administration. You know, I'm looking at

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Speaker 1: the terminal right now, and there's a headline Shell buys

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Speaker 1: Russia's flagship oil at a record discount. Looks like we

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Speaker 1: are reporting, um that this is a decision by Shell,

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Speaker 1: obviously Europe's largest oil company, and just kind of goes

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Speaker 1: to show that companies are are still open to doing

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Speaker 1: business here with Russia. Is this something that that lawmakers

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Speaker 1: and policymakers should address as far as what these private

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Speaker 1: companies want to do, rick or or is this something

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Speaker 1: where the government kind of just has to let private

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Speaker 1: companies behave in the way they feel as best. Emily

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Speaker 1: that that's been one of the big criticisms of a

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Speaker 1: ban on Russia oil. So let's just sell it to

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Speaker 1: somebody else. Right, there's a active market. China will take

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Speaker 1: anybody's oil all the time. Uh and uh and and

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Speaker 1: what what good are we doing? Well? Part of it

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Speaker 1: is a political statement, right, and part of that political

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Speaker 1: statement is we're not going to do business with Russia.

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Speaker 1: And I don't know how this administration gets over that up.

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Speaker 1: How how do you look at the voters in the

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Speaker 1: face and say we're going to continue to do business

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Speaker 1: with Russia while we try to put all these other

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Speaker 1: sanctions on. It doesn't make any sense. It's just not logical. Rick,

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Speaker 1: I want to ask one thing off of sanctions exactly

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Speaker 1: before we get a little later to Jared Bernstein from

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Speaker 1: the White House. What do you make of Senator Lindsey

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Speaker 1: Graham publicly, including on Twitter, calling for someone in Russia

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Speaker 1: to assassinate Vladimir Putin? Yeah, where is brutus in Russia?

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Speaker 1: I mean, that might be the strangest comment I've ever

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Speaker 1: heard from the United States senator. Um. Look, I think

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Speaker 1: it's just echoes. The frustration that Congress has in Lindsay

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Speaker 1: Graham specifically, who has been a big advocate for Ukraine

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Speaker 1: and an opponent of Putin for a long time, is

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Speaker 1: that we just got to get something done to try

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Speaker 1: and him in Vladimir Putin and if it and I

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Speaker 1: think it's just a cry of desperation. Right. We'll be

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Speaker 1: back a little later with Jeannie and Rick, But next

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Speaker 1: we're going to talk to Jared Bernstein, who's a member

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Speaker 1: of the White House is Council of Economic Advisors. With

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Speaker 1: Emily Wilkins, I'm Jack Fitzpatrick, this is Bloomberg. Well with us. Now,

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Speaker 1: is Jared Bernstein a member of the White House Council

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Speaker 1: on Economic Advisors. Jared, thank you so much for joining

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Speaker 1: us today. I wanted to start off by asking you

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Speaker 1: about February's job report. In many ways, it was a

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Speaker 1: good report. It beat expectations, an increase of sick hundred

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Speaker 1: seventy thousand jobs. How are you interpreting this number? What

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Speaker 1: does this mean for the economy and for planned rate

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Speaker 1: hikes later this month. Well, it means that we have

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Speaker 1: one of the strongest job markets and generations since President

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Speaker 1: Biden got here. Uh, seven point four million jobs have

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Speaker 1: been created in terms of non farm payrolls. And that's

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Speaker 1: a direct result of both monetary and fiscal policy. And

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Speaker 1: from where we sit, the American rescue plan, shots and

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Speaker 1: arms and checks and pockets clearly set the labor market

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Speaker 1: up for a recovery and expansion that again is historically

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Speaker 1: unique in terms of creating strong, welcoming job openings across

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Speaker 1: the whole economy, very broad if you look at the

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Speaker 1: job growth across industry, construction, manufacturing, professional services, even retail trade. So,

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Speaker 1: as you say, very strong jobs report. So how does

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Speaker 1: this play into fiscal policy going forward? Especially when we

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Speaker 1: here Senator Mansions say that in any economic reconciliation bill,

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Speaker 1: half of the revenue should be focused just on reducing

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Speaker 1: the deficit and the other half can be spendable. Does

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Speaker 1: this job report make the White House more comfortable with

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Speaker 1: bigger numbers of revenue just focused on reducing the deficit. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think that the first place to start there is

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Speaker 1: to recognize that this is is one month in a

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Speaker 1: trend of just very solid gains in the job market.

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Speaker 1: We we tend to under emphasize one month often because

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Speaker 1: of the bibs and bobs and the noisy data. Over

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Speaker 1: the past three months, the job market has been averaging

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Speaker 1: five eighty thousand jobs per month, again seven point four

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Speaker 1: million since the President took office. In terms of fiscal policy,

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Speaker 1: um kind of steady as she goes, in the sense that, uh,

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Speaker 1: the real fiscal impulse from the rescue plan took place

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Speaker 1: in twenty one. If you look at the trajectory of spending,

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Speaker 1: you'll see that it comes down quite steeply, and that

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Speaker 1: night fisk impulse, meaning the extent to which the government

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Speaker 1: is fiscal policy is either juicing or is it negative

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Speaker 1: to growth. Fiscal impulse actually turns into quite a significant

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Speaker 1: negative this year because we get a lot last year

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Speaker 1: do much less this year when it comes to future spending.

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Speaker 1: And here's where some of Center Mansion's concerns come in. Um,

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Speaker 1: I think the most important thing to recognize is that

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Speaker 1: that spending is targeting at easing inflationary pressures by expanding

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Speaker 1: the economy supply side its productive capacity. And so that's

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Speaker 1: probably the right way to understand the fiscal dynamics right now.

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Speaker 1: Going back to the Job's report, unemployment fell to three

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Speaker 1: point eight percent. However, the unemployment rate for black woman

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Speaker 1: actually rose to six point one percent in February. What

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Speaker 1: does the White House need to do to to address

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Speaker 1: this discrepancy? Well, I think that first of all, um,

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Speaker 1: we want again again be careful not to overinterpret one

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Speaker 1: month in fact, in in the household servery, which is

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Speaker 1: what you're you're citing. Uh, the results were much stronger

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Speaker 1: for men than than for women. But before we decide

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Speaker 1: that that's a trend, if you look over on the

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Speaker 1: payroll survey, of those six hundred seventy eight thousand jobs,

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Speaker 1: half of them went to women and half went to men.

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Speaker 1: So that was a nice breakdown. But you're bringing up

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Speaker 1: an important point, which is UH is the racial and

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Speaker 1: gender UH disparities and some of these numbers. You know,

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Speaker 1: I noticed today that the Hispanic unemployment rate was down

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Speaker 1: to its pre pandemic level four point four percent, but

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Speaker 1: that's still above the UH the rate for whites, and

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Speaker 1: you could say the same thing for blacks. So the

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Speaker 1: President's equity agenda is targeted at these very kinds of issues. UM.

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Speaker 1: In procurement, he has a very strong and I think

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Speaker 1: probably underappreciated agenda to take some of that six hundred

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Speaker 1: billion of procurement that the government does every every year

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Speaker 1: and make sure it gets two black entrepreneurs, particularly people

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Speaker 1: of color, particularly women entrepreneurs. Same thing with the UH

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Speaker 1: when we got here, we try to make sure that

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Speaker 1: the paycheck protection program for businesses was much better targeted

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Speaker 1: at minority entrepreneurs, and we had some positive results there

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Speaker 1: as well. So it's really very much a matter of

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Speaker 1: policy focus that's a high value for this president. So

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Speaker 1: basic question for you, Jared, I'm just curious how much

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Speaker 1: of this you attribute to a reopening UH as we

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Speaker 1: push through this wave of the omicron variant and and

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Speaker 1: does the good news that we see here, especially looking

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Speaker 1: at say leisure and hospitality jobs mean that it's fair

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Speaker 1: to expect future good jobs reports as we continue to

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Speaker 1: sort of reopen. I think it's reasonable to expect and

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Speaker 1: to hope that this kind of rotation of consumer spending

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Speaker 1: from the UH excess level that it's been on goods

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Speaker 1: more to in person services should continue as people feel

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Speaker 1: more comfortable engaging in those types of in persons services.

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Speaker 1: We saw some of that in today's report. Labor force

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Speaker 1: participation was up a tenth again just to tick up.

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Speaker 1: But if you look at prime age workers fifty four,

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Speaker 1: it was up to tents and it's actually showing a

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Speaker 1: pretty good trend. UH. And so again, as people feel

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Speaker 1: more comfortable, if if as the omicron variant fades into

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Speaker 1: the background, perhaps UH some of those supply side constraints

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Speaker 1: will be eased going forward. Jared, I also wanted to

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Speaker 1: ask a little bit. I know the Bloombergs reporting the

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Speaker 1: White House is wayne whether to ban Russian oil imports.

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Speaker 1: I know that there are concerns about the prices at

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Speaker 1: the pump, but I also know that Russian imports have

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Speaker 1: made up an increasingly smaller amount of American oil and gas.

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Speaker 1: So at this point, what's really the concern of of

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Speaker 1: not going through with a ban. Yeah, really a great question.

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Speaker 1: And in fact I was just looking at the numbers. UM,

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Speaker 1: the US UH imports about three percent of the US

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Speaker 1: oil imports our Russian oil. I think you can get

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Speaker 1: closer to seven to ten percent if you include refined products.

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Speaker 1: But you're right. As a share of our imports, that's

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Speaker 1: pretty pretty small. UM. I think the message right now

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Speaker 1: is that we're having high level discussions on this idea

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Speaker 1: of a Russian import ban on energy products. Uh not,

433
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Speaker 1: by the way, an important distinction, not on energy sanctions

434
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:30,399
Speaker 1: that carve out remains. We're consulting with our allies. But

435
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 1: I think one of our important goals here the President

436
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 1: articulated just today, I believe is no decrease to the

437
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 1: supply of oil coming to our our shores, of course,

438
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:46,159
Speaker 1: of course, including our domestic production. UM. And and because

439
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,879
Speaker 1: of those price effects, should also point out that no

440
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:52,960
Speaker 1: decisions have been made on those issues yet. Well, that

441
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,680
Speaker 1: is about all the time we have today. Jared Bernstein,

442
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,080
Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us a member of

443
00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:02,399
Speaker 1: the White House Council on Economic Advisors. Coming up, we

444
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 1: reassemble the panel to close out our Friday gets you

445
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 1: onto on the way to your weekend. I'm Emily Wilkins

446
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 1: here with Jack Fitzpatrick. This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg.

447
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 1: Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. You heard

448
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 1: Jared Bernstein just a little bit ago, a member of

449
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:37,160
Speaker 1: the White House's Council of Economic Advisors acknowledge that, yes,

450
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 1: the administration is considering or at least cannot rule out

451
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:46,240
Speaker 1: adding restrictions on Russian oil and gas coming to the US.

452
00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 1: After the big news this afternoon on the Bloomberg Bloomberg

453
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 1: Terminal that those conversations were happening. Let's bring in our panel,

454
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:57,360
Speaker 1: Genie she in Zano and Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics contributors.

455
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:00,680
Speaker 1: I'm Jack Fitzpatrick hosting with Emily will Ends while Joe

456
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 1: is out today. Guys, Bernstein seemed in the last segment

457
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:09,679
Speaker 1: a bit positive about the idea. He didn't confirm this

458
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:11,760
Speaker 1: was going to happen, but seemed a bit positive about

459
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 1: the idea of potentially adding a ban on Russian oil. Rick,

460
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:20,120
Speaker 1: what did you make of of his tone on that possibility? Yeah,

461
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 1: I thought it was pretty practical and positive. Obviously, the

462
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,639
Speaker 1: administration is putting out signals that they're looking at it,

463
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 1: and as he described it, at the very highest levels,

464
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:31,879
Speaker 1: which means, you know, the White House staff and Biden.

465
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:34,960
Speaker 1: So uh, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get

466
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 1: an announcement sometime soon about this. And obviously they are

467
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:41,920
Speaker 1: also making the preparations to replace that lost supply of

468
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 1: oil if they do ban it with with other crew

469
00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 1: so uh should not have too much of a bad impact.

470
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:50,920
Speaker 1: But I would say our gas prices in this area

471
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:54,560
Speaker 1: going up sixty cents in the last two days. So

472
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:57,520
Speaker 1: I don't know what's happening out there, whether we're getting

473
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:00,479
Speaker 1: gouged or whether the market is so hot, but uh,

474
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:03,280
Speaker 1: it's not like it's not going up anyway. So I

475
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 1: think the administration just ought to reconcile it with the

476
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 1: fact that they don't want to do business with Russia. Well,

477
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 1: we just got that key metric of what exactly is

478
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 1: Rick Davis paying for gas? That that's a significant one

479
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:19,120
Speaker 1: to look for guys. Aside from the sanctions talk specifically,

480
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,200
Speaker 1: there's a lot coming up heading into next week, even

481
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:25,439
Speaker 1: maybe this weekend. I would point out that, yes, the

482
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 1: government funding deadline is in a week next Friday, night

483
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:31,399
Speaker 1: at midnight, we'd have a shutdown if they can't manage

484
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:34,280
Speaker 1: to fund the government. They are still working on a

485
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 1: twelve bill omnibus government funding package. It is supposed to,

486
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 1: according to the plan laid out by the White House

487
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:46,960
Speaker 1: and Democrats in Congress, carry that ten billion dollar Ukraine

488
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 1: supplemental spending measure with defense funds as well as humanitarian needs,

489
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:54,720
Speaker 1: and could have another supplemental measure twenty two and a

490
00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 1: half billion dollars for COVID relief. We've heard some pushback,

491
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 1: I think most loudly from Mitt Romney, from Republicans who

492
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 1: say they shouldn't attach another COVID relief to this broader

493
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 1: government funding measure. Uh, And that seems to be one

494
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:12,640
Speaker 1: of the key challenges over the next week. Rick, I'm

495
00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 1: curious what you make of Republicans at this point, saying,

496
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:18,959
Speaker 1: hold up, we want to review the money that's been

497
00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 1: spent already, what unspent money there is currently. Why are

498
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 1: Republicans in the Senate so concerned about adding more COVID

499
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 1: money to to this funding package. Well, I think Republicans

500
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 1: are starting to act like Republicans, which is that they

501
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 1: actually are concerned about federal spending. And we know, uh

502
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 1: from the data that states are flushed with cash from

503
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:46,800
Speaker 1: earlier COVID relief bills. And so if we're gonna allocate

504
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 1: new money, what's the difference between that and using up

505
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 1: some of the money that already exists. And so I

506
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 1: think that's what Republicans are concerned about. They they they

507
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 1: want to do whatever they need to do to help

508
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 1: ensure that we don't have a lapse on COVID, but

509
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 1: they don't want to spend additional billions of dollars if

510
00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 1: they don't need to. Genie, I'm going to flip that

511
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 1: question and come to you, why exactly do we need

512
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 1: twenty two point five billion for COVID. I mean, we're seeing,

513
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,480
Speaker 1: oh Macron cases go down. We got to have masks

514
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 1: off in the capital for Biden's State of the Union,

515
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 1: lots of mask mandates are being lifted. It kind of

516
00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 1: seems like like we're on the verge of of turning

517
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:26,640
Speaker 1: a page here. Why, I mean, twenty two billion, that's

518
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:28,840
Speaker 1: a lot of money. Why so much and why is

519
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 1: that needed? Well, you know, I was just thinking when

520
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 1: you were talking about this budget, remember those days when

521
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 1: the idea of the government shutdown would get all the news,

522
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:40,959
Speaker 1: and it barely gets a hiccup these days. And and

523
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 1: and this is sort of where we are. And I

524
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 1: think what the administration is is envisioning is that the

525
00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 1: good sort of progress they have made on the issue

526
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 1: of COVID, they want to make sure that they retain that.

527
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 1: And I also do think it comes back to this

528
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 1: issue that you were talking to Jared Bernstein about, as

529
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:02,160
Speaker 1: it comes to an inequity um and inequality. We do

530
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 1: see that. As good as the job's report was, and

531
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 1: it was very strong, we do see the inequity. And

532
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 1: this is something that we know about pandemics. Historically they

533
00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 1: exacerbate inequality that's already existing in society, and we are

534
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:19,280
Speaker 1: seeing that now. There has got to be a concerted

535
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 1: effort by the government to make sure that those inequities

536
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 1: are addressed. And so I think it's a combination of

537
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 1: those things. I don't think they're going to get all

538
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:30,280
Speaker 1: the money that they want, but I do think there

539
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 1: is an interest here in keeping where we are in

540
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 1: terms of the good news on COVID so far. And

541
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 1: let's not forget we're seeing around the world there are

542
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 1: other places where the news is not so good. You know, Jack,

543
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 1: you are Bloomberg's government's budget guru. You follow the appropriations

544
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 1: process credibly. We're so lucky, We're always lucky that you

545
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 1: are here. But I just want to ask, because you know,

546
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 1: we saw the fiscal year technically supposed to start October one.

547
00:31:57,680 --> 00:32:00,760
Speaker 1: They did uh continuing resolution. We kind of expected that

548
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:02,600
Speaker 1: pumped it past the end of the year. There was

549
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 1: a deadline in February, and now there's a deadline in

550
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:07,960
Speaker 1: marked Why is it taking so long for them to

551
00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 1: fund the government? It seems like in previous years they

552
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 1: can usually get it done before the end of the year.

553
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 1: Why has it taken so long? A lot of the

554
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:18,720
Speaker 1: time they do it earlier than this. We're almost to

555
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:22,239
Speaker 1: the deadline according to lawmakers I've talked to, where if

556
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 1: it took much longer, they might as well not do

557
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 1: it and do a full year stop gap and just

558
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 1: start talking about next year. I think this is reflective

559
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 1: of the priorities that were outlined by the administration and

560
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 1: the way they wanted to approach everything they wanted to do.

561
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 1: We saw a bipartisan infrastructure bill first that took a

562
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 1: little while. They tried to combine that with Build Back

563
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:47,240
Speaker 1: Better or whatever exactly it's going to be renamed to UH.

564
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 1: And and they had to quickly spend a lot of

565
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 1: time is starting out with all of their their sort

566
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 1: of big more partisan priorities before they would possibly go

567
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 1: to something that has to be by part in a

568
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 1: broader government funding bill. UH. And yes, now you're seeing it,

569
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 1: it is finally sort of a priority. Biden talked in

570
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 1: his State of the Union about funding for police border security,

571
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 1: establishing a h the Advanced Research Project for health. So

572
00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 1: these are priorities. But if they could have spent that

573
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 1: time and gotten the child tax credit extended further, that

574
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:24,440
Speaker 1: would have been a bigger deal. So it's it's high

575
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 1: on their list, but it's definitely not the highest thing.

576
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 1: And you know what you too mention there sort of

577
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 1: we've talked about it a little bit, this whole idea

578
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 1: that there might be a pro vitalized push for for

579
00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:38,400
Speaker 1: Build Back Better. Jennie, is there any momentum even left

580
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 1: for it at this point? Like great that Mansions coming

581
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 1: to the table with a plan, but there has to

582
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 1: be a lot that needs to be done before that

583
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 1: would actually get to the point that it might even

584
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:50,480
Speaker 1: come to the floor for a vote, let alone get

585
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 1: to Biden's desk. Yeah, you know, I'm just reflecting the

586
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:55,960
Speaker 1: Mansion saying after the State of the Union, Democrats can't

587
00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:58,720
Speaker 1: help themselves by talking about build back better, which of

588
00:33:58,760 --> 00:34:01,480
Speaker 1: course Joe Biden didn't talk about directly in the State

589
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 1: of the Union using those terms. But I do think

590
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:05,960
Speaker 1: there is still a push to get aspects of those

591
00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 1: of it, um calling it something else. You know, Jack

592
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:12,439
Speaker 1: just mentions a child tax credit, Um, you know, elder care.

593
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 1: The President mentioned several of those, but I don't know

594
00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 1: that there is the will in Congress without Joe Manchin

595
00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:20,839
Speaker 1: coming along. My I think the biggest get at this

596
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:24,719
Speaker 1: point would be climate or energy. Building a better America

597
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 1: is what it is. Thank you, Jack. I knew it

598
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 1: was a new term, quite similar, and he listed off

599
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:36,399
Speaker 1: a number of priorities that were BBB priorities, which still

600
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:39,600
Speaker 1: I think it was essentially everything, which leaves us with

601
00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:42,719
Speaker 1: a lot of questions about what comes off now. One

602
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 1: last final point on the government funding package. It does

603
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 1: seem to have kind of been driven along by the

604
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 1: fact that this Ukraine spending bill would go along with it.

605
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:56,520
Speaker 1: That has a lot of bipartisan support. That number has

606
00:34:56,640 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 1: changed and changed and changed. Though we were six point

607
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 1: four billion, we heard, uh, ten billion, And I'm curious

608
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 1: how sure we can be that it's going to keep

609
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:08,160
Speaker 1: going up as humanitarian costs keep going up. Genie, what

610
00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:09,759
Speaker 1: do you make of you know, are they say ten

611
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:12,440
Speaker 1: billion dollars for Ukraine now? But are we gonna need

612
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:16,360
Speaker 1: to see a series of bills in Congress addressing what

613
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 1: I think would probably be a long term humanitarian fallout

614
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:22,719
Speaker 1: we will ten billion isn't even going to scratch the

615
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:25,160
Speaker 1: surface of what they need to do, and I think

616
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:28,400
Speaker 1: we are seeing recognition of that in Congress at this point.

617
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:30,319
Speaker 1: So I think this is the first of what's going

618
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:35,200
Speaker 1: to be many Rick, what do you see as the

619
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:41,319
Speaker 1: longer term needs? Very briefly, uh, for Ukraine aid? You know,

620
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 1: I similar to what Gina was say saying, I mean

621
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:48,280
Speaker 1: we're at ten billion now, it could double that, um certainly. Uh.

622
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:50,600
Speaker 1: It depends upon how the war effort goes and how

623
00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:53,839
Speaker 1: long it goes, and how many refugees come out of

624
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:57,800
Speaker 1: Ukraine looking for assistance. So I think we're just scratching

625
00:35:57,800 --> 00:35:59,800
Speaker 1: the surface, and it wouldn't be unusual to get some

626
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 1: elementals throughout the year, which I'm sure will be the

627
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:05,839
Speaker 1: track that this is on. I think things got slowed

628
00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:08,319
Speaker 1: down a little bit last week when Congress tried to

629
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 1: take an effort to take some of the money that

630
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 1: they plussed up for the Defense Department to keep it

631
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:15,319
Speaker 1: even with domestic spending and try to say, oh, well,

632
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 1: that's the money we can use for Ukraine. So I

633
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:20,759
Speaker 1: don't think Senator Shelby like that very much. And now

634
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 1: it's a supplemental So yeah, the exact number four Defense

635
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:27,840
Speaker 1: has been negotiated. Thanks again to our guests Deborah Ross

636
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:30,240
Speaker 1: and Jared Bernstein, as well as Jeannie she and Zano

637
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:33,920
Speaker 1: and Rick Davis with Emily Wilkins. I'm Jack Fitzpatrick. This

638
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg