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Speaker 1: Get in touch with technology with tex Stuff from dot Com.

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Speaker 1: Happy New Year, everyone, I'm Jonathan Strickland and this is

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Speaker 1: tech Stuff. Today's episode is an annual tradition. It's the

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Speaker 1: one in which I make predictions about the twelve months

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Speaker 1: ahead of us. What do we have in store with

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Speaker 1: tech now? Normally I do this with a co host,

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Speaker 1: but this year I thought I'd try something a little different.

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Speaker 1: I invited a few friends to send me a prediction

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Speaker 1: or two an audio format, and so in this show,

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Speaker 1: I'll occasionally play a clip from some good friends of

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Speaker 1: mine with their insights into what two thousand and seventeen

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Speaker 1: may bring us. So let's get started, and I want

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Speaker 1: to start things off with a look ahead to c

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Speaker 1: E S two thousand seventeen. It is on the mind

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Speaker 1: right now for both me and my producer Dylan, who

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Speaker 1: is in the room with me. We literally just got

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Speaker 1: out of a meeting about c E and the stuff

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Speaker 1: what we will bring with us when we go. So

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Speaker 1: I'll be sitting through press conferences in Las Vegas by

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Speaker 1: the time this particular episode goes live. Actually Dylan might

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Speaker 1: be too, and we'll be listening to what companies plan

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Speaker 1: to bring to market in the near future, but I

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Speaker 1: am recording this episode in December two thousand sixteen, so

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Speaker 1: right now it's still a mystery to me. So here

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Speaker 1: are some of my predictions of stuff that I will

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Speaker 1: see at c E S. First of all, VR and

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Speaker 1: A are are gonna be everywhere. There's gonna be a

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Speaker 1: whole section for VR and A R at c E S,

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Speaker 1: but I would not be surprised to see it pop

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Speaker 1: up in booths throughout the show, so there'll be a

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Speaker 1: dedicated section. But then big big booths like Intel are

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Speaker 1: likely going to have these on display sony, probably with

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Speaker 1: the PlayStation VR. We're gonna see that everywhere. Plus we're

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Speaker 1: gonna see tons of smart home devices and home automation

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Speaker 1: that's also going to be omnipresent at c e S.

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Speaker 1: Driverless car technologies and related products are going to have

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Speaker 1: a big, strong showing at at c e Drones will

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Speaker 1: be everywhere and come in all sorts of shapes and sizes.

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Speaker 1: I've been playing with a Star Wars drone for the

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Speaker 1: last couple of days, irritating people and ramming it into

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Speaker 1: people's faces. It is amazing, and I think we'll also

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Speaker 1: see a lot of three sixty degree cameras at the show.

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Speaker 1: That seems to be like the new hot tech stuff

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Speaker 1: at C E S. I think three sixty degree cameras

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Speaker 1: are gonna be at a lot of different booths. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna see a lot of different approaches. You're gonna see

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Speaker 1: people claiming to have four K or eight K or

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Speaker 1: maybe even sixteen kgree cameras, So we'll explore that when

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Speaker 1: we're there. Now, I plan on recording an episode of

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Speaker 1: tech Stuff while I'm at C E S with a

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Speaker 1: certain Mr Ben Bolan as my co host, and I

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Speaker 1: think he's gonna have me on an episode of car stuff, uh,

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Speaker 1: and I will be his co host for that, So

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Speaker 1: we're gonna kind of trade shows while we're there, and

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Speaker 1: at that time, we'll see if I'm on track with

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Speaker 1: these predictions. So you'll actually hear that in next week's episode.

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Speaker 1: It's really weird to say next week's episode because I'm

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Speaker 1: recording this on December twenty one, and I won't be

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Speaker 1: recording the c S episode until early January. But for

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Speaker 1: you guys, it's like only a week past. So hello

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Speaker 1: from the past. I guess that's what I'm saying there. Anyway,

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Speaker 1: that's the e So let's move on. How about a

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Speaker 1: prediction about Apple. So two thousand seventeen, we'll mark the

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Speaker 1: tenth anniversary of the debut of the iPhone. Steve Jobs

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Speaker 1: debut the iPhone in two thousand seven, So because of that,

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Speaker 1: I think the next iPhone, the next generation, whatever it

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Speaker 1: might be called, will be a bigger and bolder departure

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Speaker 1: from the current design than the last couple of generations were. Um,

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Speaker 1: I think Apple really needs to capitalize on this tenth

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Speaker 1: year anniversary. So I think we're gonna see some really

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Speaker 1: bold choices, hopefully that won't involve getting rid of more

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Speaker 1: features like the headphone jack. But I also think that

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Speaker 1: two is the year in which Apple gives us at

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Speaker 1: least a sneak peek at their autonomous car technology. Now

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Speaker 1: they're they're not building autonomous cars from what we understand,

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Speaker 1: they're building systems, autonomous car systems that would be or

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Speaker 1: at least things that would pair with autonomous car systems.

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Speaker 1: Uh So I think we might actually get a sneak

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Speaker 1: peek of that next year. That's kind of a long

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Speaker 1: shot because Apple is not known for showing their technology early.

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Speaker 1: They're much more likely to wait until it's ready to go,

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Speaker 1: maybe show it off a month in advance of launching it.

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Speaker 1: But I think next year is going to be a

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Speaker 1: big year for Apple, or this year for you guys

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Speaker 1: listening to this now. Next year from when I'm recording it,

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be a huge year for Apple, and I

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Speaker 1: think they need to have something that is really going

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Speaker 1: to blow people away, and I think autonomous car technology

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Speaker 1: would be the way to do it. Unless they finally

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Speaker 1: came out with an Apple branded television, that might help too.

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Speaker 1: And if they do show their autonomous car technology, then

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Speaker 1: that might take some of the sting out. If their

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Speaker 1: next generation iPhone is not a huge departure or a

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Speaker 1: home run, if it's not totally breathtaking, then they can say,

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Speaker 1: but we also have this cool thing that's gonna make

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Speaker 1: automas cars more interesting. Speaking of driverless cars, I think

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Speaker 1: we're gonna see a lot more states start to draft

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Speaker 1: rules and regulations for driverless vehicles. As it stands, Michigan

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Speaker 1: is the only state that really has a comprehensive legal

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Speaker 1: framework for autonomous vehicles operating on state roads, but expect

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Speaker 1: to see more states in the US frame regulations and

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Speaker 1: not all states might be particularly welcoming of autonomous car technology.

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Speaker 1: We might see a few that specifically prohibit driverless cars.

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Speaker 1: We're already seeing some for action in California. That's where Uber,

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Speaker 1: the car sharing service, although I don't really think of

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Speaker 1: as a car sharing service. Uh. They've been butting heads

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Speaker 1: with San Francisco officials over the legality of testing autonomous

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Speaker 1: cars within the city limits. So we're probably gonna see

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Speaker 1: more of those kind of growing pains in different areas,

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Speaker 1: particularly if companies like Uber don't bother to I don't know,

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Speaker 1: ask permission before testing an autonomous car on city streets.

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Speaker 1: We'll have to see. Uber, by the way, has been

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Speaker 1: super aggressive with its move toward autonomous cars. It's weird

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Speaker 1: to see a company moving so quickly toward a largely

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Speaker 1: unproven technology, and I say unproven as an unproven in

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Speaker 1: real world cases as opposed to just test cases, even

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Speaker 1: test drives within the city itself. We haven't really seen

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Speaker 1: anyone adopt this technology on a level that Uber has

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Speaker 1: been attempting to do. Also, it would mean that Uber

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Speaker 1: would be replacing a lot of its workforce, or at

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Speaker 1: least the the drivers who work on behalf of Uber

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Speaker 1: so that also comes across as a little weird. You know,

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Speaker 1: they're essentially saying, Hey, we don't want all these people

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Speaker 1: driving for us, we want robots driving for us. I

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Speaker 1: say that before two thousands seventeen is over, expect Uber

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Speaker 1: to at least test a truly driverless vehicle. I said,

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Speaker 1: no one is sitting in the driver's seat in a

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Speaker 1: major market somewhere. Now, that means there's no human operator

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Speaker 1: inside the vehicle as it stands right now. Uber has

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Speaker 1: been testing driverless cars in Pittsburgh and San Francisco, but

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Speaker 1: they always have a driver in the driver's seat, able

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Speaker 1: to take over at any second. So I imagine that

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Speaker 1: before the year is out, Uber world test a car

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Speaker 1: with no one in the driver's seat. Uh, it may

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Speaker 1: be a test in which no member of the public

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Speaker 1: is in the vehicle at all, So the vehicle may

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Speaker 1: just be empty, or there might be an Uber employee

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Speaker 1: inside who's writing as a passenger but not an actual

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Speaker 1: member of the public. But I do think Uber is

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Speaker 1: so eager to take this step, even if the rest

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Speaker 1: of the US isn't prepared for it. I'm guessing there

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Speaker 1: will be a lot more news about driverless cars in

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Speaker 1: two thousand seventeen from other players in the game as well,

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Speaker 1: like Tesla and Google. In fact, Google recently spun off

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Speaker 1: its driverless car division within Google Access, the research and

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Speaker 1: development branch of Google, into its own subsidiary company called

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Speaker 1: way Mo w A Y m O. I think we're

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Speaker 1: still a few more years out before we see that

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Speaker 1: this blossom into something more than just a test bed technology,

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Speaker 1: but expect to hear more about this throughout two thousand seventeen,

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Speaker 1: and I wouldn't be surprised to hear about more pilot

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Speaker 1: programs or pilotless programs if you prefer in other parts

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Speaker 1: of the world, including driverless trucks and driverless shuttle buses.

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Speaker 1: We've seen a couple of experiments in that area already.

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Speaker 1: I think we're going to see more In other big

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Speaker 1: predictions about new technology, I think hyperloop tests will show

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Speaker 1: that the concept is basically sound, but requires such an

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Speaker 1: enormous investment from both an infrastructure and an operational standpoint

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Speaker 1: that it makes it unrealistic. I suspect that, barring any

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Speaker 1: phenomenal incentives from state or federal government agencies, it will

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Speaker 1: turn out to be financially untenable. So I don't anticipate

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Speaker 1: any major engineering fails as companies test out hyperloop designs.

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Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to have a catastrophe or

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Speaker 1: a massive system failure, but I do think it will

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Speaker 1: become increasingly challenging to keep things moving from an investment standpoint. Now,

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Speaker 1: I hope that we do see companies push past this

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Speaker 1: and create a real hyperloop track that actually functions as

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Speaker 1: a transportation method. But I think the odds of that

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Speaker 1: are pretty slim. But please prove me wrong, hyper loop companies.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to be right about that addiction. It's

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Speaker 1: just kind of a gut feeling I have. Now let's

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Speaker 1: hear what my friend I as Actar has to say

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Speaker 1: about the tech of two thousand seventeen. Hey, they're tech

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Speaker 1: stuff listeners, And Jonathan, it's I as actor seen dot

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Speaker 1: dot com, gfqu network dot com and other places, And yes,

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Speaker 1: I just promoted myself on your show. My tech prediction

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Speaker 1: for seventeen is a prediction I keep saying pretty much

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Speaker 1: every year. It seems Alphabet will get into the wireless

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Speaker 1: internet game. Huge in the division of Alphabet that runs

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Speaker 1: Google Fiber Access put a halt to rolling out. It's

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Speaker 1: super fast internet service and a lot of cities back

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Speaker 1: in August. Now, I think that these divisions of Alphabet

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Speaker 1: are reevaluating everything possible to become the biggest deal within Alphabet.

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Speaker 1: While the fiber rollout may be paused. Reports have said

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Speaker 1: Access is already looking into wireless tech to get into cities.

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Speaker 1: Why bother having to drag out physical fiber to holmes

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Speaker 1: if you can build transmitters with five G speeds. S

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Speaker 1: Net got to try out Verizons five G wireless service

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Speaker 1: and it topped out at three point seven seven gigabits

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Speaker 1: per second. That's a whole lot of bandwidth, and I

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Speaker 1: think that might be enough for Access to invest heavily

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Speaker 1: in wireless. That's my prediction. I hope everybody listening has

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Speaker 1: a great and crazy fast wireless Internet Access. I think

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Speaker 1: i as is right on the money with this one.

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Speaker 1: We've seen Google put the brakes on laying out fiber

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Speaker 1: infrastructure in the cities that hasn't already committed itself to fully.

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Speaker 1: So you know, Google announced that they were going to

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Speaker 1: lay down fiber in a lot of different cities, and

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Speaker 1: some of them they either have completed their work or

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Speaker 1: they're in the middle of it, Like here in Atlanta,

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Speaker 1: They're still laying down fiber. Those cities they're still committed

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Speaker 1: to do it, but other cities where they experienced they

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Speaker 1: expressed an interest, they are no longer going to forward

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Speaker 1: with laying down fiber, and I suspect a big reason

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Speaker 1: for this is that Google is looking at the economic

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Speaker 1: and engineering factors of going with a wireless strategy versus

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Speaker 1: going with a wired one, and they're leaning towards wireless

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Speaker 1: at this point. And not only that, but as I

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Speaker 1: as is predicted in the past, I do think Google

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Speaker 1: is seriously thinking about being a bigger player and wireless

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Speaker 1: phone infrastructures. Google figh is kind of a first step

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Speaker 1: into that world, but that involves partnering with existing cell

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Speaker 1: phone carriers and piggybacking off their networks. It would not

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Speaker 1: shock me to see Google jump into the game wholeheartedly.

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Speaker 1: In and speaking of games, I think two thousands seventeen

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Speaker 1: is the make or break year for virtual reality. Consumer

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Speaker 1: VR finally really got off the ground in with the

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Speaker 1: launch of the Oculus Rift, the h d C five,

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Speaker 1: and the ps VR, among others. Google's in the game

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Speaker 1: with Daydream. There are dozens of companies that sell headsets

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Speaker 1: and apps promising to turn your smartphone into a VR HMD,

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Speaker 1: but the fact remains that the gear is still in

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Speaker 1: general heavy, clunky, it's not really comfortable to wear for

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Speaker 1: really long play sessions, and it doesn't look like anyone

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Speaker 1: has come out with a killer app or game to

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Speaker 1: sell systems yet, So no one can point to a

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Speaker 1: specific game and say you have to have VR because

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Speaker 1: you have to play this thing, and it doesn't look

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Speaker 1: like anyone um is finding a way to bring that

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Speaker 1: price tag down. If you're using a smartphone, then I

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Speaker 1: guess the price tag isn't that bad because you're already

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Speaker 1: probably already have the phone. But when you're looking at

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Speaker 1: the headsets themselves, they're still pretty expensive, particularly for systems

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Speaker 1: that rely upon a console or a bf PC to work,

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Speaker 1: so that's a high barrier to entry. For example, if

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Speaker 1: you don't already own a p S four, then you

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Speaker 1: have to buy one of those to have the PSVR.

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Speaker 1: If you don't already own a powerful gaming computer, then

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Speaker 1: you're gonna have to buy one of those in order

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Speaker 1: to play with an Oculus Rift or an HDC five.

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Speaker 1: This brings that price way up, and it means that

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Speaker 1: fewer people can actually afford to get into this this world.

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Speaker 1: So if VR companies can make more comfortable gear, if

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Speaker 1: they can offer it at a reasonable price, or at

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Speaker 1: least not make it more expensive than it is right now,

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Speaker 1: and if developers can create some really compelling experiences and aims,

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Speaker 1: I think VR will make it through two thousand seventeen

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Speaker 1: just fine. But if not, I fear we'll see VR

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Speaker 1: kind of take the same role as in Nintendo. We

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Speaker 1: so we'll just become something that gathers dust until you

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Speaker 1: have a group of friends or family over and then you,

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Speaker 1: you know, dust it off and you show everybody how

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Speaker 1: it works, and everyone's like, oh, that's amazing, that's that's phenomenal.

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Speaker 1: And then you're done, and then you put it in

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Speaker 1: the corner and then you don't touch it again until

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Speaker 1: the next big gathering. That's what I'm worried VR will

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Speaker 1: turn into. And I think two thousand seventeen is the

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Speaker 1: year where it either faces that future or it becomes

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Speaker 1: the ubiquitous type of computing everyone wants to have in

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Speaker 1: their home. It's one or the other. I don't think

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Speaker 1: you can just treadwater for another year. Now. One exception

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Speaker 1: to that rule with VR is that I think you're

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Speaker 1: going to see more uses of VR in attractions or

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Speaker 1: experiences that you pay to have, like an amusement park

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Speaker 1: or even the equip plent of a virtual reality arcade,

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Speaker 1: if the cost of the hardware and the software is

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Speaker 1: on a proprietor, and then you pay the proprietor to

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Speaker 1: have access to it, so that way you can have

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Speaker 1: the experience, but you don't have to pay to have

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Speaker 1: the whole UH technology in your own home taking up space.

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Speaker 1: I think people would be willing to do it if

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Speaker 1: the experiences are good enough, So I suspect we'll CVR

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Speaker 1: incorporated into more amusement park rides and related entertainment purposes.

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Speaker 1: It's possible that even where that's where VR will live,

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Speaker 1: they will just live in the entertainment world where you

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Speaker 1: pay to have access to it, but you don't go

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Speaker 1: out and buy one of these systems for home use,

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Speaker 1: kind of like roller coasters. You go and you pay

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Speaker 1: to get into a park to ride a roller coaster,

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Speaker 1: but you don't pay to have a roller coaster bill

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Speaker 1: at your house unless you get a whole lot of

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Speaker 1: land and an engineering buddy. And if you do, I

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Speaker 1: want to ride on your roller coaster. Meanwhile, another a

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Speaker 1: friend of mine has a prediction about where the world

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Speaker 1: of cable television is headed. Hello, I'm Tom Merritt, host

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Speaker 1: of daily tech news show and Chord Killers. So I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna make my prediction actually about cord cutting. In the

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Speaker 1: next year, we're going to see launches of what they

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Speaker 1: call over the top services TV services that are delivered

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Speaker 1: over the Internet, from Hulu, from Google through YouTube. We

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Speaker 1: will probably see direct tv now underway, in addition to

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Speaker 1: PlayStation View and Sling TV. And there's some rumors out

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Speaker 1: there that other folks may be getting into the market

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Speaker 1: as well. So my prediction for the United States television

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Speaker 1: market is that by the end of the combined number

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Speaker 1: of subscribers for these new over the top services so View, Hulu, YouTube,

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Speaker 1: direct TV Now, Sling will be the number three if

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Speaker 1: you if you, if you combine them will be the

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Speaker 1: number three. Large are just cable company in the United States,

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Speaker 1: so that would put them after Comcast and what is

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Speaker 1: being called Spectrum now, the new combination of Charter and

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Speaker 1: Time Warner. I think it will put it in front

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Speaker 1: of cable vision. That you know, if I wanted to

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Speaker 1: be safe, I'd put it behind cable Vision. But I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna go out on a limb and I'm going to

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Speaker 1: say that the combination of people getting their live television service,

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Speaker 1: their channel television service over the Internet will make it.

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Speaker 1: The combined will be the number three cable company, if

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Speaker 1: you were to call it a cable company in the

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Speaker 1: United States of America. And uh, we will start to

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Speaker 1: see more of the traditional cable companies offering services or

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Speaker 1: at least talking about offering services outside of their normal markets.

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Speaker 1: That that's kind of a corollary to this. We'll start

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Speaker 1: to see Comcast saying, hey, we haven't over the top

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Speaker 1: service of our own, which they already do right now.

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Speaker 1: They only offer it to their existing Comcast subscribers. They'll

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Speaker 1: start offering in places that aren't Time Warner territory the

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Speaker 1: Comcast doesn't operate in anyway. That's my prediction, Jonathan, Thanks

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Speaker 1: for inviting me on if you'd like to find out

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Speaker 1: more about cord cutting, of course, courd killers dot com

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Speaker 1: or Daily Tech News Show. Thanks again, Happy New Year.

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Speaker 1: I can't argue with Tom's logic. Over the top or

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Speaker 1: o t T services are growing more popular every year plus,

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Speaker 1: we're seeing more televisions and entertainment system components that incorporate

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Speaker 1: O T T services into the hardware themselves, making it

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Speaker 1: easier than ever to get content without actually subscribing to cable.

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Speaker 1: In two thousand sixteen, we saw some cable companies kind

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Speaker 1: of make a bit of a rally against declining subscriber numbers,

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Speaker 1: which suggests that we may have leveled off of the

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Speaker 1: number of people who are just jumping ship and cutting

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Speaker 1: the court entirely. So maybe we won't see even smaller

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Speaker 1: numbers of subscribers in the future, but rather a growing

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Speaker 1: number of people with O T T services, many of

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Speaker 1: whom may also be cable subscribers in addition to having

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Speaker 1: the O T T services. I've got a lot more

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Speaker 1: predictions ahead, but first, let's take a quick break to

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Speaker 1: thank our sponsor. Okay, now that we're back, let's talk

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Speaker 1: about those personal digital assistance that we have out there.

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Speaker 1: I'm not talking about p d as in the old

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Speaker 1: fashioned sense, but rather the stuff like Sirie Cortana, Alexa,

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Speaker 1: Google's assistant who I guess doesn't merit an actual name.

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Speaker 1: For a while, those have served primarily as a user

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Speaker 1: interface and by that I mean that the early implementations

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Speaker 1: have mostly been used as a replacement for like a

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Speaker 1: touch screen or keyboard and mouse. They weren't really living

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Speaker 1: up to their full potential. It was just a different

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Speaker 1: way to access your devices and to make them do stuff.

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Speaker 1: But beyond that, there wasn't a whole lot of power

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Speaker 1: to them. As time has gone on, that has changed.

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Speaker 1: Developers have created more skills for a for example, or

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Speaker 1: apps for other services, and we started to see a

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Speaker 1: little bit more functionality in two thousand and sixteen. For

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Speaker 1: one thing, the companies behind those services are starting to

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Speaker 1: collect a lot of data to work with and to

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Speaker 1: see how people are using their services. And by looking

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Speaker 1: at that data, they can make changes to those services,

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Speaker 1: make them work better, make them do more things, and

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Speaker 1: we'll likely see those services take a more proactive approach

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Speaker 1: where it starts to anticipate our needs as we move

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Speaker 1: through our routines. So, in other words, if you do

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Speaker 1: the same thing every work day or school day, if

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Speaker 1: you have the same kind of routine set up, and

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Speaker 1: the systems in your house start to learn what your

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Speaker 1: routines are, they can start to prepare things in advance

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Speaker 1: of your routine to make it more smooth. That's the

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Speaker 1: kind of thing I'm thinking about. By the end of

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Speaker 1: two thousand seventeen, I expect to see an enormous increase

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Speaker 1: in the number of Internet of Things devices that can

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Speaker 1: interoperate with these digital assistants. So we've already seen Amazon

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Speaker 1: be very aggressive in this space. Amazon works very hard

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Speaker 1: to try and get partnerships with various Internet of things

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Speaker 1: companies so that Alexa can also interact with things like

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Speaker 1: lighting systems, thermostats, that kind of stuff, electronic locks, cameras,

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Speaker 1: everything you can think of, the same thing for Google Home.

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Speaker 1: I think we're going to continue to see that grow

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Speaker 1: in ten to a huge extent. Now that actually ties

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Speaker 1: into another prediction a different friend of mine made. I'm

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Speaker 1: talking about my buddy, Shannon Morse, who was a podcaster, hacker,

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Speaker 1: and wearer of many hats, both literally and figuratively. Shannon

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Speaker 1: made two predictions for me this year, and this is

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Speaker 1: actually her second prediction, but I'm gonna play it first.

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Speaker 1: I'll play the first one later in the show, but

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Speaker 1: it fits better in a different discussion. So for now,

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Speaker 1: here's what Shannon has to say about the Internet of

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Speaker 1: Things in for my second prediction. I believe if that Mirai,

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Speaker 1: which was a really big bot net this year that

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Speaker 1: was able to attack Internet of things devices such as

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Speaker 1: security cameras and the like, UH will create critical changes

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Speaker 1: for the Internet of things manufacturers and is going to

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Speaker 1: spot spur more security focus from consumers on IoT devices. So,

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Speaker 1: for example, I believe that consumers are going to be

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Speaker 1: a lot more aware of what kind of security their

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Speaker 1: IoT devices have on them before they actually buy them,

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Speaker 1: and I hope that they will start asking the correct

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Speaker 1: questions to figure out that security. I also predict that

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Speaker 1: we are going to see a more consumer focused software

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Speaker 1: program made to detect IoT vulnerabilities and help you patch them. Currently,

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Speaker 1: there is nothing that I know of, at least that

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Speaker 1: allows consumers to really easily check their IoT devices for

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Speaker 1: any kind of vulnerabilities. Yes, we do have things like

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Speaker 1: malware um detection and antavirus for computers, but we don't

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Speaker 1: have anything like that for OOT devices, for open ports

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Speaker 1: and like. So I would love to see somebody create,

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Speaker 1: for example, and open source software that can be audited

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Speaker 1: that would allow consumers to quickly check their devices, quickly

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Speaker 1: check their ports to make sure everything is safe on

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Speaker 1: their routers. And given the high concerns that we've had

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Speaker 1: with mere I bought net this past year, I can

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Speaker 1: see that as a quite a high possibility for now.

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Speaker 1: Like I said earlier, I'm recording this episode in December

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Speaker 1: twenty one, two thousand and sixteen. I can tell you

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Speaker 1: right now that Shannon is on target with this particular prediction.

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Speaker 1: The Internet of things is a big focus of the

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Speaker 1: upcoming ce SEEN trade show. Again, that's that big electronics

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Speaker 1: conference that will be going to in Las Vegas. One

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Speaker 1: of the categories of products that I'm seeing concentrates specifically

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Speaker 1: on IoT device security IoT stands for Internet of Things.

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Speaker 1: Just in case I didn't explain that a few different

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Speaker 1: companies are offering up smart home hubs to add in

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Speaker 1: kind of a layer of protection between the gadgets in

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Speaker 1: your home and the big bad world of people who

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Speaker 1: want to exploit your devices. So, if you recall in

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Speaker 1: my review episodes of twenty sixteen, I talked about several

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Speaker 1: examples of hackers using unsecured devices to attack targets like

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Speaker 1: web servers or even the heating system of some apartment

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Speaker 1: buildings in Europe. So if nothing else, we're going to

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Speaker 1: see a strong push from the electronics industry and various

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Speaker 1: agencies within it to employ new strategies to protect COOT

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Speaker 1: devices and the people who use them. So I agree

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Speaker 1: entirely with Shannon's prediction. In fact, I think security tech

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Speaker 1: alone will see enormous growth in tween we saw so

432
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 1: many accounts of de dos attacks and worse stuff like

433
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:46,440
Speaker 1: intrusions into what should have been a secure system that

434
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 1: I suspect the security industry will have the biggest year

435
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 1: ever in twenty seventeen. All of that won't really matter

436
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,400
Speaker 1: much if people don't learn to practice healthy security, though,

437
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 1: as we see numerous times, people tend to be the

438
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 1: weakest link in secure systems. There's no need to brute

439
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,439
Speaker 1: force an attack into a computer system if you can

440
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:09,560
Speaker 1: convince someone to give you access to it. Switching gears

441
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 1: over to hardware for a second, I predict that we'll

442
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 1: see a hardware kind of development level off a little bit.

443
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:19,679
Speaker 1: I don't think we're gonna see as fast progression in

444
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:24,000
Speaker 1: hardware capabilities as we have in previous years, or at

445
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:25,879
Speaker 1: least not an increase in power at the at that

446
00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 1: same rate. So in other words, yes, once again, I'm

447
00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 1: going to predict that Moore's law will become less of

448
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,439
Speaker 1: a factor. I think most companies are now concentrating on

449
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:39,280
Speaker 1: ways to make more efficient use of their components in

450
00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:43,639
Speaker 1: their microprocessors, rather than dedicate themselves to perpetuating an observation

451
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:46,639
Speaker 1: that was made half a century ago. As a result,

452
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,760
Speaker 1: I think we're gonna see focus placed on developing software

453
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:55,679
Speaker 1: rather than pushing hardware. Even if hardware companies try to

454
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 1: break new barriers, I think most spending will be on

455
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:02,880
Speaker 1: the software end of things. This is particularly true as

456
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:06,359
Speaker 1: more companies embraced cloud based services in favor of native

457
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:11,120
Speaker 1: applications on corporate computers. I also suspect we'll see at

458
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 1: least one major issue with a cloud based service, perhaps

459
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:18,679
Speaker 1: even a catastrophic one, before the end of SEEN, and

460
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:20,520
Speaker 1: that might shake things up for the second half of

461
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 1: the year. It could cause big companies to reassess the

462
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:26,439
Speaker 1: strategy of offloading everything to the cloud. If a cloud

463
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:30,120
Speaker 1: service suffers a terrible failure at some point in SEEN,

464
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:33,080
Speaker 1: then you're gonna have companies saying, well, maybe we shouldn't

465
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:37,359
Speaker 1: put all of our eggs into the online basket. Maybe

466
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:43,879
Speaker 1: we should have localized backups, localized instances of our data

467
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,400
Speaker 1: and a lot of companies still do that, but we've

468
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:49,640
Speaker 1: been seeing more and more kind of adopt the cloud

469
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:53,600
Speaker 1: approach over the years because there's a lot of savings involved.

470
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 1: You don't have to have the physical space to hold

471
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 1: all the equipment, you don't have to have as many

472
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:02,919
Speaker 1: people you're paying for a service in that sense, But

473
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 1: if one of those services fails, it could be huge news.

474
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 1: And now I'd like to play another prediction, and this

475
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 1: one comes to us from my buddy Jason Howell over

476
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:16,359
Speaker 1: at this Weekend Tech. Hey, Jonathan, this is Jason Howell

477
00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 1: Tech News Today for Twitter dot TV. You're no stranger

478
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 1: to the show. We've had you on many times, but

479
00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:25,439
Speaker 1: thanks for asking for my prediction. For I'm thinking that

480
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 1: maybe throughout the course of the year, maybe there's a

481
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:32,719
Speaker 1: little bit of a resistance, a pushback on things like

482
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 1: social media, things like over sharing everybody's details to technology companies.

483
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:41,240
Speaker 1: We've gotten to the point to where we've really started

484
00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:45,400
Speaker 1: to give so much of our identities of our lives

485
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 1: in exchange for conveniences. And I think what we're starting

486
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 1: to realize is and and many people have realized this

487
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:54,879
Speaker 1: for a long time, but uh and warned against it,

488
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 1: But is that as we give away all that information,

489
00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 1: it's really hard to take it back, and there's the

490
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:03,199
Speaker 1: potential there's a lot of potential for abuse, be it

491
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 1: weaponized information, be it hacking and security, be it just

492
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:12,560
Speaker 1: reliance on things. You know, people are worried of the

493
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:15,159
Speaker 1: thought of, like leaving Facebook, even though they don't like it,

494
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 1: because that's how I keep in touch with people. Is

495
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:22,439
Speaker 1: it healthy to make one single, you know, service like

496
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 1: Facebook or other social networks the one way that you

497
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 1: get all of your information that you stay in touch

498
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 1: with people. There's there's potential for abuse there, and I

499
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 1: think we're starting to realize, uh, you know, starting to

500
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:35,360
Speaker 1: react to that a little bit. I'm wondering if there

501
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 1: is a little bit of a pull back, a pull

502
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 1: away from over sharing, where people kind of start to

503
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 1: take their digital lives back into their own hands, and uh,

504
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 1: I don't know, just realize that there there are alternatives

505
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 1: that they don't have to feel beholden to these companies

506
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:52,719
Speaker 1: who are really just you know, doing all of this

507
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 1: in the best interests of themselves and their shareholders, not

508
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 1: necessarily for the users. I know, maybe that's a pipe

509
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:00,960
Speaker 1: dream something I've been thinking about a lot lately, and

510
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:03,480
Speaker 1: I'm kind of hoping that going into twenty seventeen people

511
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 1: think about that too. Anyways, thanks for asking me to

512
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 1: do this. There's a lot of fun. I'm really hoping

513
00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 1: for a fantastic seventeen, but that is that happy new year,

514
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:15,240
Speaker 1: you know. I'd like to think we'll see behavior kind

515
00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:18,120
Speaker 1: of like what Jason predicts, but I'm not sure. I

516
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 1: definitely saw a lot of people become disenchanted with social

517
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 1: media over this past year, particularly after events like the

518
00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:28,600
Speaker 1: Brexit vote in the UK and the elections here in

519
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 1: the United States. But that's purely anecdotal and based upon

520
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 1: my particular group of friends, and just because several people

521
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 1: I know decided that they wanted to take a bit

522
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 1: of a social media sabbatical doesn't mean it's an overall trend.

523
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 1: But it's also possible that it is a trend, and

524
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 1: the people I see in my group are just part

525
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 1: of a smaller part of a much larger movement. Now,

526
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:56,360
Speaker 1: whether that prediction is true or not, I do hope

527
00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 1: that in tween people give more thought to what they're

528
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 1: participation on social media really means. And I know you

529
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 1: guys know this because you've been listening to tech stuff,

530
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 1: your tech savvy folks. But it means that when you

531
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 1: participate in social media, you give up some, sometimes a lot,

532
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 1: of your privacy and security in return for the rewards

533
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:21,040
Speaker 1: you get with social media. That that level of connection,

534
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 1: that immediacy of communication, those come into price, and those

535
00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:29,480
Speaker 1: companies like Facebook and Twitter, they all profit off of

536
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:32,959
Speaker 1: our participation in these systems, Like we're the ones that

537
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 1: make it valuable. It's not that Facebook is valuable because

538
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 1: of all of its features. Facebook is valuable because there's

539
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 1: so many of us on Facebook. We're the part of

540
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 1: those platforms that make those companies money. And if that's

541
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 1: all okay with you, well that's totally cool. You know,

542
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 1: there's nothing wrong with that. If you are aware of

543
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 1: it and you're okay with it, that's fine. But if

544
00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 1: you're not okay with it, then you should ask yourself

545
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:03,960
Speaker 1: hard questions about using social media. Now. Personally, I'm going

546
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:06,720
Speaker 1: to continue to use social media. Even if it were

547
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 1: not part of my job, I would still use it.

548
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 1: I don't have a whole lot of time that I

549
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:15,960
Speaker 1: can spend with my friends in real life, so social

550
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:17,960
Speaker 1: media remains one of the easiest ways for me to

551
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 1: stay up to date with what my friends are doing

552
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 1: and understand what's going on. Also, I can organize events

553
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 1: really easily with stuff like Facebook. But then if everyone

554
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 1: else leaves, it's gonna get awful lonely in there for me.

555
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 1: So I won't obviously won't be nearly as useful if

556
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 1: everyone else does. So. Will we see people pull back

557
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 1: from social media? Um? Some Sure. I think we will

558
00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 1: see some people pulled back from social media in I

559
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:47,480
Speaker 1: just don't know that it's going to be a large

560
00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 1: enough number for the majority to notice. But maybe Jason's right.

561
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know. I feel like something is

562
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 1: going to change. At least awareness is going to change. Now.

563
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 1: That brings me to a related prediction that I have,

564
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 1: which is that Twitter is going to have a very

565
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 1: rough In fact, I worry that if no one steps

566
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 1: up to acquire Twitter with a serious bid, we could

567
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:17,960
Speaker 1: see the service completely die. That's hard to imagine considering

568
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 1: how many people use Twitter as a way to follow

569
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 1: people and brands they like, or sometimes the people and

570
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 1: brands they don't like it depending upon their inclinations, or

571
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 1: the fact that celebrities, politicians, and brands use Twitter to

572
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 1: reach out directly to an audience, but unless the company

573
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 1: can make some positive changes soon, it may not be around.

574
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:44,280
Speaker 1: At the end of complicating that matter is the ongoing

575
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:47,720
Speaker 1: issue of harassment on Twitter. The company has struggled to

576
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:51,760
Speaker 1: create and enforce a policy that satisfies users, and some

577
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 1: people continue to be the targets of online harassment. Now

578
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 1: that's not helping matters. And all that being said, I

579
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:01,480
Speaker 1: think it's most likely that someone will buy Twitter before

580
00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 1: the end of seventeen, but I bet they're going to

581
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 1: buy it for way less than what Twitter was hoping for,

582
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 1: so significantly less. Like essentially, if Twitter doesn't sell, then

583
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 1: it's not going to be around. Uh that's my prediction

584
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 1: for seventeen with Twitter. On a related note, I suspect

585
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 1: we'll see a renewed attempt to curtail fake news from

586
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:27,200
Speaker 1: spreading online. Personally, I think that's nearly impossible if you

587
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:31,760
Speaker 1: go back to the eighteenth century. In seventeen ten, Jonathan Swift,

588
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:36,360
Speaker 1: another brilliant Jonathan, there's been so many of us wrote,

589
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 1: falsehood flies and the truth comes limping after it. The

590
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:45,960
Speaker 1: same thing is true now, more true than ever now

591
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:51,480
Speaker 1: falsehood flies across the Internet very very quickly, the truth

592
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:57,720
Speaker 1: stumbling along behind. And you know, Jonathan Swift made this

593
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 1: observation all the way back in seventeen, you know, back

594
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:04,239
Speaker 1: when the Internet was super slow because it hadn't been

595
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:08,320
Speaker 1: invented yet. But Google and Facebook both have recently pledged

596
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:11,680
Speaker 1: to identify and limit the impact of fake news sites

597
00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:16,280
Speaker 1: to prevent misinformation from spreading so quickly. And here's my prediction.

598
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 1: If they do a good job of identifying these sites,

599
00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:25,480
Speaker 1: those sites will quickly die off because those sites only

600
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:29,919
Speaker 1: exist because people are clicking on those links. When people

601
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 1: click on the links, they drive up the page views

602
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:36,320
Speaker 1: on those pages. Those page views are linked to ads

603
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 1: running on those pages, which means the pages start to

604
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:41,880
Speaker 1: earn money. They earn ad money for the number of

605
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 1: impressions they get. The more impressions or views they get,

606
00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:49,680
Speaker 1: the more money the sites get. So if Google or

607
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:53,880
Speaker 1: Facebook refuses to sell ads against those pages, or they

608
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:58,839
Speaker 1: adjust their algorithms to completely exclude those pages from their services,

609
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:03,000
Speaker 1: it won't be profitable to operate those sites, and the

610
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 1: people writing for those sites will go and do something else. Now,

611
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:09,360
Speaker 1: some of those people might truly believe in whatever message

612
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 1: they're sending out even if they're sending out fake news,

613
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:14,960
Speaker 1: they may really believe in the point of view that

614
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:19,280
Speaker 1: they are stating, but many of them, perhaps even most,

615
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 1: are just doing it as a way to make money.

616
00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:26,000
Speaker 1: They're not It's not that they particularly hold the viewpoints

617
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:31,000
Speaker 1: that they espouse in there in their episodes or in

618
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 1: their in their sites. They're just writing what they think

619
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:37,799
Speaker 1: people will click on, which is pretty darn cynical. But

620
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 1: then I'm doing a job I love, and so I'm

621
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 1: in a position of luxury when it comes to that

622
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 1: sort of thing. I'd like to think that if I

623
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:49,720
Speaker 1: didn't have this job, I would not be writing fake news.

624
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:52,040
Speaker 1: But since I'm not in that position, it's kind of

625
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:54,960
Speaker 1: hard to say for sure. Maybe i'd be a a

626
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 1: fake newsmonger. Who's to say, Well, I've got a few

627
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:03,239
Speaker 1: more action But before I get into those, let's take

628
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:14,360
Speaker 1: another quick break to thank our sponsor. Okay, we're in

629
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:18,400
Speaker 1: the homes trench, so how about some doom and gloom.

630
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:21,200
Speaker 1: So we're gonna see a lot more automation in jobs

631
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 1: in several industries. In some examples may just be kind

632
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:28,920
Speaker 1: of test cases, you know, not like a widespread rollout

633
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 1: of technology, but more prototypes to see how it goes.

634
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 1: Things like fast food restaurants moving into more automated systems,

635
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:39,880
Speaker 1: or delivery services relying on more automation like self driving

636
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 1: vehicles or other shipping methods. Now that's going to prompt

637
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:46,919
Speaker 1: more discussions about how automation will affect the workforce as

638
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 1: a whole, and how to prepare people for the jobs

639
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:54,680
Speaker 1: of tomorrow. As more of today's jobs become automated, I

640
00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 1: suspect we'll also see more people advocate for a universal

641
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:03,520
Speaker 1: basic income concept, though I cannot imagine the upcoming US

642
00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 1: administration to be at all interested in that. We might

643
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:11,320
Speaker 1: see examples of it in other countries outside the United States. However,

644
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 1: something else we might see is an increase in electronics

645
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:19,840
Speaker 1: prices because I suspect trade relations between the US and

646
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:24,440
Speaker 1: China could get a little prickly. President elect Donald Trump

647
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 1: has been really critical of China and has talked about

648
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 1: imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, so we may see some

649
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 1: fallout in the consumer market as a result of all this.

650
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:36,960
Speaker 1: Now it's still early, so this could all change. But

651
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 1: my bed is that we'll see trade strained in between

652
00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:43,479
Speaker 1: China and the US, and stuff is going to cost

653
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:46,440
Speaker 1: more than it has for the past few years. On

654
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:50,280
Speaker 1: a related note, some analysts are saying that it's getting

655
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 1: more expensive for companies to operate in China, so it's

656
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:56,840
Speaker 1: actually possible that we might see some of the manufacturing

657
00:37:56,840 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 1: companies move out of China entirely and into a friend

658
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:04,280
Speaker 1: country like Vietnam or the Philippines. Now back in the States,

659
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:11,480
Speaker 1: we have another concern that's also politically related, and that

660
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:15,600
Speaker 1: concern is net neutrality. So to talk about net neutrality,

661
00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:19,840
Speaker 1: here's Shannon Morse again with her other prediction, which technically

662
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:23,240
Speaker 1: was her first prediction, but I saved it until now

663
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:26,560
Speaker 1: prediction number one. I believe that we are going to

664
00:38:26,600 --> 00:38:29,840
Speaker 1: start seeing some large hits to security and privacy, starting

665
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:35,320
Speaker 1: with net neutrality in bulk data collection for example. Just recently,

666
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 1: just last week, net neutrality came under fire due to

667
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:42,439
Speaker 1: an FCC commissioner wanting to remove some of the regulations

668
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 1: that it creates under the new newly led government that

669
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:50,000
Speaker 1: was recently elected in I suspect that other privacy regulations

670
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:52,279
Speaker 1: such as the us A Freedom Act, which did a

671
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:54,360
Speaker 1: weigh with a lot of the bulk data collection that

672
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:56,880
Speaker 1: the government was allowed to do from the Patriot Act

673
00:38:57,520 --> 00:39:00,680
Speaker 1: will also be stripped away to allow for more of

674
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:05,040
Speaker 1: a surveillance state kind of United States due to fears

675
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 1: of terrorism. Now, while I do know that this prediction

676
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:11,640
Speaker 1: is kind of negative, it is something that I'm very

677
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:14,440
Speaker 1: keenly aware of due to the fact that I'm currently

678
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:18,960
Speaker 1: studying privacy and security regulations for my own podcast. So

679
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 1: it's something that I've seen as a growing concern in

680
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 1: the last half often and something that will continue to

681
00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 1: be a concern in I think net neutrality is going

682
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:36,239
Speaker 1: to suffer a huge setback in Net neutrality covers a

683
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:38,680
Speaker 1: lot of territory, but one thing in particular I'd like

684
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:42,839
Speaker 1: to address is the issue around Internet service providers, as

685
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:47,320
Speaker 1: common carriers will likely see that decision reversed in twenty seventeen,

686
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 1: giving I s p s more freedom to operate the

687
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:53,799
Speaker 1: way they had been before the FCC reclassified them. And

688
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:56,880
Speaker 1: since many I s p s are also content providers,

689
00:39:56,920 --> 00:40:00,720
Speaker 1: we could see fragmentation of the Internet experience as companies

690
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:05,919
Speaker 1: give their own content preferential treatment over competitors content. So,

691
00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:09,400
Speaker 1: in other words, if you if you own the pipes,

692
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:12,040
Speaker 1: but you also own the stuff that's in the pipes,

693
00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:14,520
Speaker 1: or at least some of the stuff that's in the pipes.

694
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:19,799
Speaker 1: Maybe you give the stuff you own more speed than

695
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 1: you do other people's stuff. You don't own that stuff,

696
00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:25,839
Speaker 1: so but you own the pipes. So you're gonna make

697
00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 1: sure that your stuff goes through fine, and everyone else's

698
00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:33,200
Speaker 1: stuff can move as at whatever speed you feel is necessary.

699
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:37,759
Speaker 1: That's the concern. Um here's an example. If you have

700
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 1: Comcast as an Internet service provider, you might notice in

701
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:47,040
Speaker 1: this world, this hypothetical world, I should add that Comcast

702
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:51,280
Speaker 1: content pops right up on your connected devices. So anything

703
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:53,680
Speaker 1: you have connected through your home that you're accessing that's

704
00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 1: a Comcast service, you get it immediately. It's perfect, no weight, great,

705
00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:04,879
Speaker 1: great experience. But stuff like Netflix, which isn't owned by Comcast,

706
00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:11,200
Speaker 1: doesn't have that smooth experience. Meanwhile, someone who's using a

707
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:14,000
Speaker 1: T and T S service has a different experience than

708
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:17,080
Speaker 1: you do. Comcast stuff doesn't come through on a T

709
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:20,040
Speaker 1: and T S service. Instead, some native A T and

710
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:24,640
Speaker 1: T content comes through easily, but other stuff it's really slow.

711
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:28,480
Speaker 1: Discouraging people from using that other stuff and encouraging them

712
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:32,439
Speaker 1: to use the I, S P S own content. See,

713
00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:34,000
Speaker 1: that's the kind of stuff that could happen if we

714
00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:36,840
Speaker 1: see net neutrality dismissed. We could even get to a

715
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:39,680
Speaker 1: point where companies just say, you know what, I'm not

716
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:44,440
Speaker 1: going to allow that content across my network period. That's

717
00:41:44,560 --> 00:41:48,480
Speaker 1: a possibility. It's not necessarily likely, but it is possible,

718
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 1: and there are a lot of other implications as well

719
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 1: beyond this. Now, it's not necessarily true that all I

720
00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 1: s p s will immediately resort to strategies that fragment

721
00:41:57,160 --> 00:42:00,319
Speaker 1: the Internet experience. You could see companies to used to

722
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:04,279
Speaker 1: remain fair with all content as a means of being competitive.

723
00:42:04,680 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 1: In other words, they're not gonna sit there and act

724
00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:10,319
Speaker 1: against somebody else because the customers would say, well, I

725
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:13,560
Speaker 1: don't want to get my Internet service from Company A

726
00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:17,160
Speaker 1: because they're doing this jerk face move. I'll go with

727
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:22,960
Speaker 1: company B. But that assumes that consumers have access to

728
00:42:23,320 --> 00:42:28,720
Speaker 1: multiple I s P options, which isn't exactly the case necessarily.

729
00:42:29,000 --> 00:42:31,840
Speaker 1: In the United States. For example, where I live, there's

730
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 1: only one I s P that delivers speeds greater than

731
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:40,279
Speaker 1: ten megabits per second. So there's one that delivers at

732
00:42:40,320 --> 00:42:43,400
Speaker 1: a hundred megabits per second, and then all the others

733
00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:47,279
Speaker 1: are at ten megabits per second or slower. Because of that,

734
00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:51,439
Speaker 1: there's no incentive for the I s P I use

735
00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:54,840
Speaker 1: to cater to customers because it's already got an enormous

736
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:58,040
Speaker 1: competitive advantage over all of the other I s p s.

737
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:02,160
Speaker 1: It's already ten time is faster than the other I

738
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:04,960
Speaker 1: s p s in my area. So if it's already

739
00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:07,560
Speaker 1: ten times faster, why do they need to bend over

740
00:43:07,600 --> 00:43:10,600
Speaker 1: backwards to make sure that they're being fair to me?

741
00:43:10,719 --> 00:43:14,120
Speaker 1: They don't. There's no incentive there. I don't have any

742
00:43:14,160 --> 00:43:18,000
Speaker 1: real option. If I leave that I s P, I

743
00:43:18,080 --> 00:43:20,920
Speaker 1: have to go with somebody who is one tenth less speed,

744
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:25,200
Speaker 1: which is not terribly attractive to me. And without those

745
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:29,759
Speaker 1: regulations of net neutrality, I don't have any protection that

746
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:32,760
Speaker 1: my I s P won't go off and do something

747
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:37,360
Speaker 1: that is puts me on a disadvantage. It's not great,

748
00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:41,239
Speaker 1: not great for me. It's fantastic for the companies, but

749
00:43:41,400 --> 00:43:45,239
Speaker 1: for the consumers not so much. Now, I don't want

750
00:43:45,239 --> 00:43:48,520
Speaker 1: to end this show on a downer note. So here's

751
00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:55,399
Speaker 1: a positive prediction for I think in we're gonna see

752
00:43:55,400 --> 00:43:58,960
Speaker 1: some real movement in the renewable energy market, both from

753
00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:03,719
Speaker 1: big companies and from consumers. Google will be purchasing enough

754
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:07,200
Speaker 1: electricity from renewable sources to power all of its offices

755
00:44:07,239 --> 00:44:11,080
Speaker 1: and data centers in just with renewable energy. I mean,

756
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:16,000
Speaker 1: that's amazing. Google consumes a huge amount of electricity, so

757
00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:21,080
Speaker 1: to purchase all of that from renewable sources is fantastic. Meanwhile,

758
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 1: Tesla and Solar City will be merged at some point

759
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:30,319
Speaker 1: in seventeen. The merger has already started, and they will

760
00:44:30,400 --> 00:44:33,120
Speaker 1: offer people the chance to switch to solar power and

761
00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 1: get off the grid, depending upon where you live and

762
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:40,600
Speaker 1: how much money you have, because it is not cheap

763
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:43,680
Speaker 1: to switch to solar power. Over the long run, you

764
00:44:43,760 --> 00:44:48,640
Speaker 1: might save money, but it's a big initial investment. But

765
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:50,279
Speaker 1: if you're able to do that, then you would be

766
00:44:50,280 --> 00:44:54,160
Speaker 1: able to get off the grid and generate electricity through

767
00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 1: a renewable source. I think we're gonna see a lot

768
00:44:57,120 --> 00:45:00,600
Speaker 1: more of that in tween. However, it's all so possible

769
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:03,920
Speaker 1: that we'll see fewer tax incentives and programs that make

770
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 1: it easier to switch, like to create a financial incentive

771
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:13,000
Speaker 1: to switch. We might see fewer of those um and

772
00:45:13,040 --> 00:45:15,400
Speaker 1: that might slow down adoption quite a bit. But I

773
00:45:15,440 --> 00:45:18,040
Speaker 1: still have high hopes that by the end of Seen,

774
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:22,000
Speaker 1: we'll see a big push for environmentally friendly power sources

775
00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:25,080
Speaker 1: in lots of new places, both in big companies and

776
00:45:25,239 --> 00:45:29,200
Speaker 1: in consumer homes. And that's it for my predictions for

777
00:45:30,719 --> 00:45:34,640
Speaker 1: I want to thank I as Actar, tom Merritt, Jason Howell,

778
00:45:34,800 --> 00:45:38,279
Speaker 1: and Shannon Morrise for their contributions to this show. I

779
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:41,880
Speaker 1: As works for c Net. He is at I As

780
00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:46,120
Speaker 1: I Y A Z on Twitter. Tom Merritt hosts the

781
00:45:46,200 --> 00:45:49,280
Speaker 1: Daily Tech News show and another show called Cord Killers.

782
00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:52,560
Speaker 1: He is at ACE Detect on Twitter. That's a C

783
00:45:52,920 --> 00:45:57,640
Speaker 1: E D T E C T and uh. Jason Howell

784
00:45:57,840 --> 00:45:59,960
Speaker 1: is a host of Tech News Today over at Twitter

785
00:46:00,400 --> 00:46:04,400
Speaker 1: This Week in Tech and is at Jason Howell on Twitter.

786
00:46:04,719 --> 00:46:07,960
Speaker 1: And Shannon Morrise is a host on Hack five That's

787
00:46:08,160 --> 00:46:10,839
Speaker 1: j K five and tons of other shows. You can

788
00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:14,480
Speaker 1: find her on Twitter at at s n U B

789
00:46:14,880 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 1: S snubs And thank you for listening to tech stuff

790
00:46:19,200 --> 00:46:21,360
Speaker 1: for another year. I got a lot of plans for

791
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:24,840
Speaker 1: but I always want to hear from you guys too.

792
00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:27,319
Speaker 1: If there's a subject you'd like me to cover, or

793
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:29,480
Speaker 1: someone I should interview on the show or have as

794
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:32,840
Speaker 1: a guest co host. Please let me know. The email

795
00:46:32,840 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 1: address is tech stuff at how stuff works dot com,

796
00:46:36,239 --> 00:46:38,600
Speaker 1: or send me a message on Facebook or Twitter. I

797
00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:41,799
Speaker 1: use tech Stuff H s W for both. Hopefully the

798
00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:44,280
Speaker 1: next time you hear me, I will not have a cold,

799
00:46:45,120 --> 00:46:47,520
Speaker 1: because I know you're all wondering why a sound weird

800
00:46:48,040 --> 00:46:51,400
Speaker 1: or weirder than usual. And I will talk to you

801
00:46:51,440 --> 00:47:00,560
Speaker 1: again really soon. Happy New Year. For more on this

802
00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:03,239
Speaker 1: and thousands of other topics, is it how stuff works

803
00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:13,080
Speaker 1: dot com m