WEBVTT - Moffett on 2021 Warner Bros Theatrical Slate

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser from Bloomberg Radio. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>he's a star analyst when it comes to telecom, cable

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<v Speaker 1>and satellite space. Uh. He's watched it grow, evolve and

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<v Speaker 1>really be challenged over the years. And as someone described

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<v Speaker 1>on our morning call as we were setting our line up,

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<v Speaker 1>he is definitely a legend. Named the number one analyst

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<v Speaker 1>by Institutional Investor magazine year after year, rated number one

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<v Speaker 1>in the telecom space by our own Bloomberg Markets. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>And he his vantage point is really great because he

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<v Speaker 1>understands the industry. He's been an analyst, he's covered it,

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<v Speaker 1>but he's also seen it from the inside as the

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<v Speaker 1>founder and c of the e commerce business over at Southby.

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<v Speaker 1>So Craig Mofatt is back founding Partners, senior analyst at

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<v Speaker 1>Mafat Nathanson back with us on the phone in New

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<v Speaker 1>York City. Um, so good to have you back. How

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<v Speaker 1>are you what's changed since we last talked roughly about

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<v Speaker 1>a month or so ago. Yeah, thank you, nice to

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<v Speaker 1>be back. Well, I think the big the big news

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<v Speaker 1>really is the big announcement yesterday from A T and T,

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<v Speaker 1>which about bringing movies in so called day and date

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<v Speaker 1>or the same day that they bring in the movie theaters,

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<v Speaker 1>bringing them the bringing them to HBO Max, and that

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<v Speaker 1>is really an extraordinary development. UM. It has implications for

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<v Speaker 1>the exhibitors, that is the movie theaters, It has implications

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<v Speaker 1>for a T and T itself, and I think, as

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<v Speaker 1>you saw with a lot of the blowback today, it

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<v Speaker 1>has a big, big implications for the actors and artists

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<v Speaker 1>and directors, which I think was was maybe under appreciated yesterday.

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<v Speaker 1>And boy, oh boy, did they hear in earful today

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<v Speaker 1>from how angry some of their stakeholders are kind a

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<v Speaker 1>million questions. So do you think this is one thing

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<v Speaker 1>or just a short term thing, or do you think

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<v Speaker 1>this is something that becomes part of how it happens

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<v Speaker 1>longer term and maybe forever. Well, you know, it's it's

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<v Speaker 1>it's It puts them in a in a difficult position

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<v Speaker 1>because Jason clar who formerly of Hulu and the person

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<v Speaker 1>who put himself out front in this decision, um uh

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<v Speaker 1>now running Warner Media, made it very clear that this

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<v Speaker 1>is a decision about customers, and that the customers want

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<v Speaker 1>movies day and date. It's what they've always wanted. UM

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<v Speaker 1>and I don't think anybody would argue with that. It's

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<v Speaker 1>customers would love to have movies day and date. The

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<v Speaker 1>problem is, once you say that, it's a little hard

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<v Speaker 1>to put the genie back in the bottle and then

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<v Speaker 1>say what we've in two we know do want to

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<v Speaker 1>put customers first? Um, And so uh it feels like

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<v Speaker 1>not just to me, but I think to most people

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<v Speaker 1>as if this is um going to become an expectation,

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<v Speaker 1>and uh, the implications of that again are just enormous. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I love listen, you just get into the weeds with

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<v Speaker 1>all of this and you really break it down at

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<v Speaker 1>you know, when somebody creates a piece of content, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>a major film or something. You know, the theaters is

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<v Speaker 1>just one level, right, but there's so many their levels,

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<v Speaker 1>and you go through the pay windows, right, and you

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<v Speaker 1>say that often when it does its theatrical release, it

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't necessarily make money there, But it's the later windows,

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<v Speaker 1>Like you talk about the pay one window like an hbout,

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<v Speaker 1>that's where it starts to maybe you know, be at

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<v Speaker 1>least be in the green on some kind of movie.

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<v Speaker 1>And and remember it's we're not just talking about a

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<v Speaker 1>T and T and Warner Media themselves. We're also talking

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<v Speaker 1>about directors and actors who have participation deals. So Christopher

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<v Speaker 1>Nolan today UM a critically important director to Warner Warner Media.

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<v Speaker 1>UM is our rate and UM as are lots of

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<v Speaker 1>these directors. So you know, in Legendary Entertainment, which was

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<v Speaker 1>offered hundreds of millions of dollars for King Kong versus

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<v Speaker 1>Godzilla to go direct to Netflix, took it, took the

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<v Speaker 1>deal to Warner Brothers instead, and then got blindside it

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<v Speaker 1>and wasn't told in advance from what we read today

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<v Speaker 1>that oh, by the way, we're taking your movie out

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<v Speaker 1>of movie theaters or at least, um, we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>be making it available at no extra charge on HBO

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<v Speaker 1>same day. Um, if you're a director and you're and

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<v Speaker 1>or an investor in one of those films, and you've

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<v Speaker 1>got hundreds of millions of dollars writing on the performance

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<v Speaker 1>at the box office based on your contract, your head's

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<v Speaker 1>kind of explode. And and from what we understand, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>they were not not told in advance in order to

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<v Speaker 1>keep secrecy. So when when they did this with Wonder Woman,

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<v Speaker 1>which was you may recall Wonder Woman was the first

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<v Speaker 1>movie and that was very done purely as a one off.

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<v Speaker 1>It was single film with no expectations of any others

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<v Speaker 1>to follow. UM was moved directly to HBO Max in

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<v Speaker 1>a similar model. They ended up having to pay each

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<v Speaker 1>of of Gal Gadot, the star and the director ten

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<v Speaker 1>million dollar is each in order to uh sort of

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<v Speaker 1>satisfy them that they weren't giving up too much in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of their residuals. But you're talking about what happened

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<v Speaker 1>with Wonder Woman and what people are now calling the

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<v Speaker 1>Wonder Woman money. You know, this comes down to, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>how people are paid, right, whether it's directors, actors, all

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<v Speaker 1>of the people involved in getting a movie to the theater.

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<v Speaker 1>It kind of comes down to that, right, the upfront

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<v Speaker 1>money versus maybe the money that comes later after ticket sales.

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<v Speaker 1>That's right. And the reason this is also important is look,

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<v Speaker 1>at the end of the day, a T and T

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<v Speaker 1>is a phone company, and culturally, UM, you always have

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<v Speaker 1>to wonder how well is it is a phone company

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<v Speaker 1>going to adapt to what is essentially a creative business

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<v Speaker 1>and the core competence of of Warner Brothers Studio and

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<v Speaker 1>what has made it such a special place for the

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<v Speaker 1>last ninety three years is that it has wonderful relationships

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<v Speaker 1>with creative talent, and so I just I want to

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<v Speaker 1>make sure your your listeners sort of appreciate how important

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<v Speaker 1>it is for a studio to make sure that that

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<v Speaker 1>they cultivate and maintain those relationships. And they clearly have

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<v Speaker 1>some damage control to do here because of the way

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<v Speaker 1>this was done. So separated apart from whether or not

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<v Speaker 1>it was a good strategic decision, the execution I think

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<v Speaker 1>raises some questions about did they care for the talent

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<v Speaker 1>and the creative partners properly in a way that's going

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<v Speaker 1>to preserve the specialness of what Warner Warner Brothers has

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<v Speaker 1>always been, right and as you rightfully say, and as

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<v Speaker 1>people have written about that, you know, Warner Brothers was

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<v Speaker 1>known as a place that really kind of took care

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<v Speaker 1>of its talent. And so to see this um is

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<v Speaker 1>really kind of disconcerting. So what so, Craig, So do

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<v Speaker 1>we figure this out? Do we figure out the pay issues,

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<v Speaker 1>do we figure out the transparency? And do contracts change

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<v Speaker 1>going forward? As you said, once the genies out of

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<v Speaker 1>the bottle for customers, you know, our customer is going

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<v Speaker 1>to demand more of it be released. Eckily to home. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know through various services are streaming services versus the theater.

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<v Speaker 1>Does the theater go away in your view? Well, I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know that the theater goes away, but I certainly

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<v Speaker 1>you can't pretend that this is anything other than bad

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<v Speaker 1>news for the exhibitors. And you do have to now look,

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<v Speaker 1>the exhibitors, under normal circumstances would have said, we will

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<v Speaker 1>simply boycott Warner Brothers movies and we will only do

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<v Speaker 1>business with others, and they would have had at least

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<v Speaker 1>some leverage. They are so badly damaged by the COVID

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<v Speaker 1>crisis and are barely hanging on for dear life. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>And so they really don't have a lot of negotiating

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<v Speaker 1>leverage here and um that also won't help relationships. But

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<v Speaker 1>they clearly are in a very difficult position. UM. So

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<v Speaker 1>you wonder, um, what what the play will be. I

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<v Speaker 1>do think long term, this is the beginning of what's

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<v Speaker 1>going to have to be the elimination of a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of screens. There will still be the um, the experience

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<v Speaker 1>of going out and enjoying a movie, but but the

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<v Speaker 1>economics just aren't going to support the number of screens

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<v Speaker 1>we have. As this transition starts to happen, and you

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<v Speaker 1>did play may have implications overseas too. Because you put

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<v Speaker 1>a movie onto HBO Max, you can guarantee that within

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<v Speaker 1>five minutes after it ends, there are going to be

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<v Speaker 1>digital copies all over the web, and they're going to

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<v Speaker 1>be and it's going to be pirated and and therefore

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<v Speaker 1>it's going to impact movie theater viewership in Asia and

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<v Speaker 1>in South America and in Europe. And I should put

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<v Speaker 1>out you did put a cell rating right on A

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<v Speaker 1>T and T. Is that correct? Yeah? Well, I've had

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<v Speaker 1>one for a long time. It is not because of this,

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<v Speaker 1>because of a whole series of structural problems at A

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<v Speaker 1>T and T and the challenge that they have in

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<v Speaker 1>supporting the dividend. All right, good to know. So, Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>one thing I want to ask you, because we talked

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<v Speaker 1>about it last time you were on, and that was

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<v Speaker 1>about five. I have not bought my phone, but my

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<v Speaker 1>rest of my family. I did get off to Aaron.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm like, John, my husband, did you know? So we

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<v Speaker 1>had a long conversation. Um, but tell me, you guys

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<v Speaker 1>did a big summit, A summit, excuse me, a day

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<v Speaker 1>long summit. I think back in November. So tell me

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<v Speaker 1>about what you guys looked into and what kind of

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<v Speaker 1>were the major takeaways. Greig Well, I think one of

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<v Speaker 1>the things that we talked about last time that I

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<v Speaker 1>think was reinforced at our summit from from all of

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<v Speaker 1>the speakers is that UM five G in the United

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<v Speaker 1>States is still not quite ready for prime time. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>We have a version of five T that has reasonably

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<v Speaker 1>good coverage but not terribly good speeds, and it's going

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<v Speaker 1>to take a little while. T Mobile is really best

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<v Speaker 1>positioned UM and I. But one of the things that

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<v Speaker 1>was striking to come back to a T and T

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<v Speaker 1>is how much at our summit we heard from from

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<v Speaker 1>T Mobile about how they were going to compete with

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<v Speaker 1>Verizon and Verizon how they're going to compete with T Mobile,

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<v Speaker 1>and a T and T almost doesn't come up in

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<v Speaker 1>the conversation. A T and T is is, I think

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<v Speaker 1>in a in a much more challenge position for five GUM,

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<v Speaker 1>in part because of an auction that just started today. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>The C band auction as it's called, that started at

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<v Speaker 1>the SEC today is a critical input for five G.

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<v Speaker 1>Most of the rest of the world already has what's

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<v Speaker 1>so called C band spectrum UM the US. It's just

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<v Speaker 1>coming to market now, and it looks for all the

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<v Speaker 1>world like Verizon is best position to get it. That

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<v Speaker 1>will give them an offering that's going to be competitive

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<v Speaker 1>against T Mobile. But you really wonder whether A T

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<v Speaker 1>and T has the money to be able to participate

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<v Speaker 1>in the auction because their balance sheet is so weak,

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<v Speaker 1>um that it's just not clear that the rating agencies

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<v Speaker 1>will allow them to spend the money that they need

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<v Speaker 1>without having to cut the dividends. So it puts them

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<v Speaker 1>in a very tough spot. That stayed with me from

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<v Speaker 1>our last conversation about how A T and T was

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<v Speaker 1>kind of its hands were tied to some extent that

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<v Speaker 1>it necessarily did it didn't necessarily have the cash needed

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<v Speaker 1>to be, you know, to participate in these auctions. And

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<v Speaker 1>I do wonder, you know, that's one of those things

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<v Speaker 1>that longer term, what kind of impact that will have? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>if if they don't. You know, these are telecom businesses

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<v Speaker 1>are really long cycle businesses. These are not businesses where

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<v Speaker 1>two years later you you um move from from being

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<v Speaker 1>behind to being ahead and back again. Um. These are

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<v Speaker 1>businesses where cycles are ten years long and or even

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<v Speaker 1>twenty years long. And so a T and T S

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<v Speaker 1>network right now is pretty competitive. It's actually as good

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<v Speaker 1>relative to Verizon at any time that I can recall

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<v Speaker 1>in the last twenty years. Um. But you really wonder

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<v Speaker 1>if they don't get the spectrum with no more spectrum

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<v Speaker 1>in the pipeline like this behind it, um, whether they

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<v Speaker 1>could be disadvantaged for a decade or more um if

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<v Speaker 1>they don't get it. On the other hand, if they do,

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<v Speaker 1>their leverage ratio would be so high that they're already

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<v Speaker 1>teetering on the knife edge of of dividends sustainability. That

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<v Speaker 1>would arguably make it even worse. And so um, there

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<v Speaker 1>may not be any good outcomes. Yeah, which makes it

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<v Speaker 1>just even trick. You're going fun when it comes to

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<v Speaker 1>five G. Just remind our audience just got about thirty

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<v Speaker 1>seconds left here. So do you are you saying that

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<v Speaker 1>ultimately Verizon you think is the best positioned here? No,

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<v Speaker 1>I think T Mobile is the best position. Probably their

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<v Speaker 1>their spectrum position is a bit better and um, and

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<v Speaker 1>they come in. You know what's nice about T Mobile

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<v Speaker 1>is they're the cheapest service, um by virtue of once

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<v Speaker 1>upon a time having a subpart network as their network

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<v Speaker 1>now has gotten to parody, and I think in five

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<v Speaker 1>G will actually be the best in class. Having the

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<v Speaker 1>lowest prices and the best service is a pretty powerful

0:12:33.760 --> 0:12:37.079
<v Speaker 1>combination to drive not only market share games but also

0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:40.760
<v Speaker 1>margin enhancements. So I'm still still quite excited about T Mobile,

0:12:40.760 --> 0:12:42.679
<v Speaker 1>even though the stocks had a very good run. All right,

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<v Speaker 1>great to check in with you, Thank you so much,

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<v Speaker 1>and really what's going on in terms of theaters UH

0:12:46.880 --> 0:12:49.360
<v Speaker 1>and movie releases that is just something we've all got

0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:51.679
<v Speaker 1>to take a closer look at UH and following other

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<v Speaker 1>markets have certainly been reacting. Craig Moffatt, thank you so much,

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<v Speaker 1>have a great holiday. Founding partner Senior analyst at Moffatt Nathanson.

0:12:58.320 --> 0:13:00.560
<v Speaker 1>He really is a go to when it comes to

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<v Speaker 1>telecom understanding these companies the cable space as well