1 00:00:01,280 --> 00:00:01,960 Speaker 1: The volume. 2 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:17,480 Speaker 2: All right, well, good Hoops and I you're at the volume. 3 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:19,639 Speaker 1: Happy Tuesday, everybody, hopefull of you guys are having an 4 00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:22,560 Speaker 1: incredible start to your week. As promised, today, we're gonna 5 00:00:22,560 --> 00:00:25,920 Speaker 1: be checking in on our NBA awards, a little mid 6 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:28,320 Speaker 1: season check in. The only one we're not gonna hit 7 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:30,560 Speaker 1: today is Rookie of the Year because I would like 8 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:32,839 Speaker 1: to hit that one in more detail tomorrow. I want 9 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 1: to do like a deep scout of the guys that 10 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:37,160 Speaker 1: have had their first season in the NBA this year 11 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 1: and look at it not just as a view of 12 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:41,599 Speaker 1: the award, because I think Cooper Flag is most likely 13 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 1: gonna win it, but I want to dive into some 14 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:45,599 Speaker 1: of the specifics of each player more as we talked 15 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:47,520 Speaker 1: about their development. So I want to spend a whole 16 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:49,839 Speaker 1: episode on that. So today we're just gonna rip through 17 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:52,640 Speaker 1: all the awards top to bottom, gonna go over some 18 00:00:52,680 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 1: best bets who I think is gonna win. It's gonna 19 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:55,960 Speaker 1: be a fun one. You guys are the joke. Before 20 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:57,520 Speaker 1: we get started. To subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube 21 00:00:57,560 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 1: channels you don't miss any more of our videos. Make 22 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:00,880 Speaker 1: sure you like the this video and sign up for 23 00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 1: post notifications. That helps us a lot. Last, but out least, 24 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 1: if you want to get mailbag questions in, drop them 25 00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:08,960 Speaker 1: underneath our full episodes on YouTube. Mailbag Colon, write your 26 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:11,480 Speaker 1: question that helps me find him. We'll get to them 27 00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:13,440 Speaker 1: on Fridays throughout the rest of the season. All right, 28 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:17,039 Speaker 1: let's talk some basketball. All of our lines that we 29 00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 1: go over today are provided by our partner, hard Rock Bet. 30 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:25,839 Speaker 1: Starting with MVP. The current Lions on hard Rock Bet, 31 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:30,199 Speaker 1: Shay is leading at minus two hundred, Jokic in second 32 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:34,119 Speaker 1: place plus three hundred, big drop off from there, cad 33 00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:38,160 Speaker 1: is in third place at plus fourteen hundred, and Luca 34 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:43,039 Speaker 1: in fourth place at plus two thousand. I think Shay 35 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:46,479 Speaker 1: Gilsus is Alexander is clearly the MVP at this point. 36 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:50,600 Speaker 1: I'm not surprised he's favored. He's averaging thirty two points 37 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 1: per game on sixty seven percent true shooting this season. 38 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 1: To give you guys some perspective, Unanimous MVP steph average 39 00:01:58,360 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 1: thirty points per game on ACT actually a tiny bit 40 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 1: lower efficiency was at sixty six point nine percent true shooting. 41 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:09,080 Speaker 1: So we're talking about a more efficient scoring season at 42 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:13,640 Speaker 1: higher volume than Unanimous MVP Steph. It's also just for 43 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 1: some perspective, the most efficient season of Steph's career was 44 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 1: sixty seven and a half percent true shooting, but that 45 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:24,519 Speaker 1: was in twenty eighteen, when he was alongside KB much 46 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:27,680 Speaker 1: lower usage role only averaged twenty six point four points 47 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 1: per game. So do I think Shay's been as good 48 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 1: as unanimous MVP Steph. No, as Steph was scoring at 49 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 1: nearly the same volume and basically the same efficiency while 50 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:39,800 Speaker 1: bringing an enormous amount of shot creation value because of 51 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 1: his gravity when he was running around without the ball, 52 00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 1: Steph was a better offensive engine. That's no shade at Shay. 53 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 1: I think Steph's peak offensively is the second highest peak 54 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:51,960 Speaker 1: ever in the history of the league, behind Nikole Jokich. 55 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:55,280 Speaker 1: Like I think Steph at his peak offensively was an 56 00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 1: even slightly better offensive player than Lebron James at his peak, 57 00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 1: So there's no shame there. I just think we're seeing 58 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:05,640 Speaker 1: from Shay this season the best guard season since twenty 59 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 1: sixteen Steph, and I think that's saying a lot when 60 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 1: you think about all the insane seasons from like Russell 61 00:03:11,080 --> 00:03:14,400 Speaker 1: Westbrook in twenty seventeen or James Harden a couple of 62 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 1: times during his peak there, you know, five years ago, 63 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:21,800 Speaker 1: we're seeing the highest peak, even higher than those peaks 64 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:24,840 Speaker 1: since twenty sixteen. Steph, I think he's gonna win MVP. 65 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 1: I think he'll very much deserve it. So let's talk 66 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 1: a little bit about some of the other candidates on 67 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:34,720 Speaker 1: the list. So both like, I don't like the Jokic 68 00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 1: bet at all. The odds look favorable, right, you're getting 69 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 1: Yokic at plus three hundred there, but considering the situation, 70 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 1: like he just has to miss two more games to. 71 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 2: Be ineligible for the award. That could be anything. 72 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 1: That could be him sitting out a couple of meaningless 73 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 1: games late in the year because he doesn't necessarily care 74 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 1: all that much about MVP, or like let's say he 75 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:57,560 Speaker 1: tweaks an ankle just ever so slightly on the front 76 00:03:57,680 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 1: end of a back to back, he misses a game, 77 00:03:59,840 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 1: so suddenly you just need one more game and he's ineligible. 78 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 1: So like, for all of the different ways that could 79 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 1: go south, I think Jokicic is not a great opportunity 80 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 1: at plus three hundred. Now, both Caid and Luca, you're 81 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 1: looking at the value add there, right, Caid's plus fourteen hundred, 82 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 1: Luca is plus two thousand, Caid is the. 83 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:21,600 Speaker 2: Interesting one for me. There. 84 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:25,679 Speaker 1: The Pistons currently have the best record in the entire NBA, 85 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 1: Caid has clearly been their most valuable player. He's got 86 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:31,720 Speaker 1: a strong on off net rating. The team performs way 87 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:34,680 Speaker 1: better when he's on versus one he's off. He's produced 88 00:04:34,760 --> 00:04:37,440 Speaker 1: at you know, not the same level as the Jokic, 89 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 1: Luka Shay tier, but he's produced at a very high 90 00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 1: level twenty five points per game, six rebounds, and ten assists, 91 00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:46,760 Speaker 1: really strong shot creation data despite him not being really 92 00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 1: surrounded by much in the way of off ball shooting talent. 93 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:53,360 Speaker 1: He's particularly been amazing in the post this year. Out 94 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:55,680 Speaker 1: of the fifty players who've posted up at least seventy 95 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 1: five times, he has the sixth best efficiency in the 96 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 1: league one point two eight points per possession including passes. 97 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:04,080 Speaker 1: And he's a legit two way player, which I think 98 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 1: is a feather in his cap over guys like Luca 99 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:10,599 Speaker 1: and Nikola Jokic as counter examples. Like you guys saw 100 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:13,120 Speaker 1: how well he defended in the All Star Game, blocking 101 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:16,040 Speaker 1: brandon Ingram at the rim, competing and getting actually quite 102 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:20,640 Speaker 1: a few deflections and a rim contest that four stops. 103 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 1: But that's how he's been most of the season. He's active, 104 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:25,320 Speaker 1: he's physical, he's averaging a career high one point five 105 00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:28,200 Speaker 1: steals per game. Not only is he a pretty darn 106 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 1: good defender right now, but I think he's got the 107 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:33,520 Speaker 1: tools in that competitive force of nature to be one 108 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 1: of the top two way players in the game one day. 109 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:39,680 Speaker 1: If you look at this as a gambling opportunity, there's 110 00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:42,640 Speaker 1: a version of this story where the thunder kind of 111 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 1: eased their way through the rest of the season. Maybe 112 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 1: Kid bumps up his efficiency a little bit. That's the 113 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:49,800 Speaker 1: one big thing you're looking at it with him is 114 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:53,200 Speaker 1: scoring volume and efficiency is pretty far below these top guys. 115 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:55,360 Speaker 1: But what if he bumps it up a little bit, 116 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:58,479 Speaker 1: you know, averages closer to thirty points per game on 117 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:00,919 Speaker 1: something closer to sixty percent for shooting the rest of 118 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 1: the way. What if the Piston's finished with the number 119 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:06,279 Speaker 1: one overall seed, and what if there's like a solid 120 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:09,200 Speaker 1: three or four game margin between them and ok, see, 121 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:13,279 Speaker 1: that's a pretty damn strong MVP case. And you're getting 122 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:16,320 Speaker 1: him at plus fourteen hundred for what is you know, 123 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:19,360 Speaker 1: a completely realistic outcome. So I like that as a 124 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 1: as a long shot kind of like value bet. The 125 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:25,840 Speaker 1: Luca kind of case is similar in the sense that, like, well, 126 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:28,720 Speaker 1: what if he's just awesome down the stretch, the Lakers 127 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:31,720 Speaker 1: are just two games back of the fourth seed. If 128 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 1: he puts up insane numbers and the Lakers end up 129 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 1: finishing third in the West, and they're like right up 130 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 1: there with San Antonio, And he's got this crazy statistical performance, 131 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 1: right thirty three eight nine on sixty one percent true 132 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 1: shooting already. What if he goes for you know, thirty four, 133 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 1: ten and ten on sixty three or sixty four percent 134 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 1: true shooting from this point on to the end of 135 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 1: the season, that would be like the case, right, But 136 00:06:55,080 --> 00:06:57,160 Speaker 1: I just think it's too much of a long shot. Like, 137 00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:00,640 Speaker 1: you know, Jokic could miss two games and get dequed, 138 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 1: So I think Luca could pass him. Caid's just not 139 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:07,360 Speaker 1: as good as Luca overall as a player right now, 140 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 1: you know, obviously has that potential, but Kate's earlier in 141 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 1: his development. He doesn't put up the stats in overall 142 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:15,200 Speaker 1: production that Luca does. So I think Luca could pass 143 00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:18,760 Speaker 1: him with voters, But I just don't see a universe 144 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 1: where Luca could get more voter support than Shy. Like 145 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 1: the case for a Caid over Shae is overwhelming teams success, 146 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 1: the Thunder have been nowhere near as good as Detroit 147 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 1: in high profile matchups this year. The Pistons are ten 148 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:35,360 Speaker 1: and three against teams in the top ten in point differential, 149 00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 1: the Thunder are six and eight. The Pistons have just 150 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 1: they have a better record, They've performed better against the 151 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 1: best teams. The Pistons have just had a better season. 152 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 1: So if that gap grows a little bit before the 153 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 1: end of the season, that could be enough to supplant Shay. 154 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:52,160 Speaker 1: There's no chance for Luca to plant supplant Shay in 155 00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 1: terms of team success. And so unless Shae just gets 156 00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:58,040 Speaker 1: hurt and misses too many games, and he's only missed 157 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:00,520 Speaker 1: seven games to this point, so he'd have to suffer 158 00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:04,320 Speaker 1: some sort of substantial injury to miss at least eleven games, 159 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 1: I don't think that's gonna happen. So based solely on 160 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 1: their individual play this year, Shay's been better on both 161 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 1: ends of the floor. The team's been better, So I 162 00:08:12,440 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 1: don't think we're gonna see Luca win an MVP this year. 163 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 1: So I don't like him very much as a long 164 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 1: shot bet, and that's why he's plus two thousand for 165 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:22,080 Speaker 1: the record. But I Shay's the MVP. If you're looking 166 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 1: for a value bet, I like Kid at plus fourteen hundred. 167 00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 1: What will it take for Luca to finally win an MVP. 168 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 1: This is the last thing I want to hit on 169 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:33,200 Speaker 1: before we move on to Defensive Player of the Year. 170 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 1: It's not about his upside. I would argue Luca's ceiling 171 00:08:38,880 --> 00:08:42,360 Speaker 1: is actually the highest in the league, maybe even a 172 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 1: bit higher than Jokic, specifically because of his ability to 173 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:49,240 Speaker 1: create his own shot from the three point line. When 174 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:52,760 Speaker 1: Luca has every part of his game going, he's literally 175 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 1: one of the most indomitable forces in the history of 176 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:55,240 Speaker 1: the league. 177 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 2: No one doubts Luca's ceiling. When he's he. 178 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:02,000 Speaker 1: Has the ability to hit eight nine step back threes 179 00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 1: in a single game. He has the ability to get 180 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:06,679 Speaker 1: to the reliable short range shot making that you get 181 00:09:06,679 --> 00:09:10,360 Speaker 1: from Jokic. He's every bit the passer that nikolea jokicch is. 182 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 1: He is every bit as good when he's at his best, 183 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 1: if not a tiny bit better than everybody in the league, 184 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 1: but he has by far the lowest floor of any 185 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:24,920 Speaker 1: of the current superstars. You have a bad Giannis game, 186 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:26,880 Speaker 1: maybe he's missing some shots of the rim, missing some 187 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:29,200 Speaker 1: free throws. He doesn't have any of his perimeter game going. 188 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:33,720 Speaker 1: He still brings enormous value defensively enormous value on the glass, 189 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:36,320 Speaker 1: and that relentless rim pressure comes with a lot of 190 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 1: trickle down positive effects. Yo kicch and Shay have such 191 00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:42,320 Speaker 1: a close to the rim shot profile and they both 192 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:46,440 Speaker 1: have such fantastic shot a touch on short twos like 193 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:49,280 Speaker 1: Shay's damn near sixty percent on jump shots inside of 194 00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:52,000 Speaker 1: seventeen feet. Yo kich is in the mid sixties on 195 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:57,000 Speaker 1: floaters and hooks. They're both just relatively immune to variants. 196 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 1: Yo Kic has some turnover issues, but he's nowhere near 197 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:03,440 Speaker 1: as bad as Luca. So for perspective, Jokic has never 198 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 1: averaged over four turnovers in a game per game for 199 00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:10,280 Speaker 1: a season, Luca's done that five times. So like even 200 00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 1: when you talk about the turnovers, it's not the same 201 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 1: as Luca there, and again less per pencd to have 202 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 1: these really cold shooting nights right with Luca. I'm not 203 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:21,960 Speaker 1: gonna sit here and pretend like his bad knights are useless. 204 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:25,000 Speaker 1: He'll still create some good shots. He'll draw their improtector 205 00:10:25,080 --> 00:10:26,960 Speaker 1: over and throw a lob to his big man for 206 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:29,440 Speaker 1: a dunk. He'll make some quality kickouts. He's always been 207 00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:32,200 Speaker 1: a good rebounder. That's a thing that helps his floor. 208 00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 1: But when he's having bad nights, it's usually a lot 209 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:39,040 Speaker 1: of turnovers, a lot of miss threes in really bad defense. 210 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 1: And so his bad nights are just more damaging to 211 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:45,680 Speaker 1: his team than the bad nights for other stars. And 212 00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 1: because his game is so predicated on high volume three 213 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:53,120 Speaker 1: point attempts, he's more prone to those cold nights. So, like, 214 00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:56,840 Speaker 1: how does Luca finally win an MVP, It's when he 215 00:10:56,920 --> 00:10:58,960 Speaker 1: reaches a point in his career where he's made a 216 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 1: diligent effort to trim the fat in his game, cut 217 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:05,320 Speaker 1: down on the mistakes, the poor shot selection, Like you 218 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 1: don't have to go two for eleven from three, you 219 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:09,680 Speaker 1: can go two for seven, realize you don't have it, 220 00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 1: and adjust your shot profile right, a little bit, more 221 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:16,680 Speaker 1: consistency on defense, like those kinds of things, that is 222 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:20,160 Speaker 1: what actually accentuates and shines the light on his immense ceiling, 223 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:23,120 Speaker 1: which as we mentioned, he might have the highest ceiling 224 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 1: in the entire NBA. 225 00:11:24,679 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 2: Another way for me to. 226 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 1: Describe it is like Shay's a better basketball player than Luca, 227 00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:33,440 Speaker 1: but Lucas has a higher ceiling. A great Luca game 228 00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:37,600 Speaker 1: when he's bullying dudes for short twos and he's spraying 229 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:39,959 Speaker 1: out for twelve thirteen assists and he's hitting eight or 230 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:42,600 Speaker 1: nine step back three, there's not many guys in the league, 231 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:45,320 Speaker 1: if at all, that can touch that level. But none 232 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:47,680 Speaker 1: of that matters if it's wildly up and down and 233 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:49,840 Speaker 1: if he can't fix his floor. So that to me, 234 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:52,040 Speaker 1: you know, Luca's been consistently every year one of the 235 00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:55,400 Speaker 1: guys that we look at as a preseason MVP favorite, 236 00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 1: and every year he seems to be out of the 237 00:11:57,200 --> 00:11:59,560 Speaker 1: mix when we get to this point, and I do 238 00:11:59,640 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 1: think he's capable of getting there, just has to fix 239 00:12:02,280 --> 00:12:05,280 Speaker 1: his floor, trim some of the fat in his game. 240 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 1: Defensive Player of the Year, this is another one that 241 00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:12,360 Speaker 1: basically comes down to the sixty five game rule. Wemby 242 00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 1: is currently the favorite on hard Rock Bet. He's minus 243 00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 1: two fifty. Chet's the only other real guy in contention 244 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:20,920 Speaker 1: right now at plus two thirty. But Chet has only 245 00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:24,840 Speaker 1: missed seven games and Wenby has missed fourteen. So if 246 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 1: Wemby misses four more games, he's disqualified. And we've seen 247 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:31,920 Speaker 1: how careful the Spurs can be with him, and any 248 00:12:31,960 --> 00:12:34,640 Speaker 1: little tweak and strain that he has, any sort of 249 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 1: little thing could cause him to miss two or three games. Right, 250 00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 1: So I would look at this one as much more 251 00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 1: of like a coin flip in terms of which of 252 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 1: those two guys I think is going to win Defensive 253 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:48,240 Speaker 1: Player of the Year. And so at that point, if 254 00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 1: you're getting shed at plus two thirty, he's your best 255 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:54,720 Speaker 1: opportunity there. Now, to be very clear, if you're just 256 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:58,800 Speaker 1: basing this award on individual performance, and we assume that 257 00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 1: both guys qualify it the end, it's Wemby by a mile. 258 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:08,000 Speaker 1: That's no shade at Chet. Check gives you basically everything 259 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:10,920 Speaker 1: you could ever want from the center position. Defensively as 260 00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 1: great scheme versatility, is an elite drop coverage big both 261 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:16,920 Speaker 1: in deep drop or up at up at the level 262 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:19,680 Speaker 1: like up to touch type of coverages. He's an outstanding 263 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:22,000 Speaker 1: switch defender. He's been very good in one on ones 264 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:24,400 Speaker 1: this year. I think he's a better post defender. Than 265 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:26,400 Speaker 1: he gets credit for. Like, yeah, he can get buried 266 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:29,160 Speaker 1: by power bigs from time to time, but his length 267 00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:31,319 Speaker 1: and mobility actually make up for that quite a bit. 268 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:34,240 Speaker 1: He tends to win more of those battles than he loses, 269 00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 1: and that reflects in his percentages his point per possession. 270 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:39,200 Speaker 2: Data this season. 271 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:43,320 Speaker 1: The only real knock on Chet defensively is the defensive 272 00:13:43,360 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 1: rebounding piece, and I wouldn't say he's bad at it. 273 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:47,760 Speaker 1: He's just not the kind of guy that can like 274 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 1: single handedly anchor you on the defensive glass like some 275 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 1: of the other top centers in the league. So point being, 276 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:56,080 Speaker 1: in any other era in NBA history, he'd be on 277 00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:58,440 Speaker 1: the very short list of people that you consider to 278 00:13:58,480 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 1: be the very best defender or in the NBA right, 279 00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:06,080 Speaker 1: But Wemby's an alien and everything he does just lacks 280 00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:09,080 Speaker 1: any sort of comparison throughout all of NBA history. And 281 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 1: the funny thing is, before we go any further, because 282 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:14,200 Speaker 1: again I feel strongly that Wemby, if the season were 283 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:15,679 Speaker 1: to end today, is the defensive player of the year. 284 00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:18,240 Speaker 1: I think there's a wide gap between him and Chet. 285 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 1: But what's funny is he's actually having a pretty bad 286 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:25,000 Speaker 1: season defending one on ones, both statistically and with what 287 00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 1: you see on tape. He's been particularly susceptible to dribble drives. 288 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:32,320 Speaker 1: He's been overplaying the jumper a little bit. He's only 289 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:35,440 Speaker 1: allowed to pull up threes on him in one on 290 00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:37,720 Speaker 1: ones this year, but he's been giving up a lot 291 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:41,200 Speaker 1: of buckets on drives. He's been overplaying the jumper a 292 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 1: little bit. Sometimes he'll open up his stance and try to, 293 00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:47,080 Speaker 1: you know, kind of get that extra step towards the contest, 294 00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:50,280 Speaker 1: and power drivers will just hit that open hip and 295 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 1: just go right around him. We've seen a lot of 296 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:55,240 Speaker 1: examples of it this year, you guys. Remember the Zion 297 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 1: Williamson games Ian drove right around him a bunch of times. 298 00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 1: Giannis has gotten right around him and than he Edwards 299 00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 1: remember that game winner where he or not game winner, 300 00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:04,160 Speaker 1: but like the clutch shot that kind of iced the 301 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:06,960 Speaker 1: game against the Spurs, drove right around Wemby and got 302 00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:09,840 Speaker 1: to like a little floater off the glass. I've seen 303 00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:12,000 Speaker 1: Caleb Martin beat him off the dribble in an ISO, 304 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 1: you know, I've seen I've seen just all sorts of 305 00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:19,760 Speaker 1: like individual one on one. Peyton Pritchard got him off 306 00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:22,680 Speaker 1: the top of the key with a drive. Who's the 307 00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 1: young player the wing that the Jazz got this year, 308 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:28,160 Speaker 1: Ace Bailey. Ace Bailey got him with the drive out 309 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:30,360 Speaker 1: of the corner that led to a three for use 310 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 1: of Nurkic. 311 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:32,840 Speaker 2: He's just been giving up a lot of dribble drives. 312 00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:36,320 Speaker 1: So, like, what's funny is is, like, as good as 313 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:39,040 Speaker 1: he is defensively already, he's got some substantial room for 314 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:41,760 Speaker 1: improvement just by like squaring up his stance a little 315 00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:44,160 Speaker 1: bit more and kind of finding that better sweet spot, 316 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:47,440 Speaker 1: maybe giving a tiny bit more ground and conceding a 317 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 1: few more pull up jumpers and not giving up the drives. 318 00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 1: The main reason why is because a drive by Wemby 319 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:55,520 Speaker 1: means Wemby's not at the rim. So like, if you 320 00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:58,960 Speaker 1: beat Wemby off the dribble, there's no rim protection element, 321 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:01,720 Speaker 1: you have the ability to finish their relatively easily. So 322 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:04,120 Speaker 1: what's kind of funny is he's having this rough season 323 00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:06,280 Speaker 1: in one on ones, but he's still just far and 324 00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:08,560 Speaker 1: away the best defensive player in the league because his 325 00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 1: overall impact as an off ball defender in ball screens 326 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:16,000 Speaker 1: help situations at the rim when he just kind of 327 00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:19,440 Speaker 1: steps over from off ball. There are so many situations 328 00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:23,480 Speaker 1: where guys get open on drives, cuts, rolls and they 329 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:25,920 Speaker 1: look up and they go nope, and they kick it 330 00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:28,680 Speaker 1: out or they dribble it out. He just breaks down 331 00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 1: so many offensive sequences sheerly with his sheer presence around 332 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:36,240 Speaker 1: the basket, and I think that when you're looking at 333 00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:40,680 Speaker 1: that specifically, that overwhelmingly impacts the game more than enough 334 00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:43,000 Speaker 1: to make up for any sort of issues he's had 335 00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:45,520 Speaker 1: in his one on ones this year. He's averaging fourteen 336 00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:47,640 Speaker 1: rebounds per thirty six minutes this year, which is a 337 00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:50,640 Speaker 1: career high, and the on off numbers show it. The 338 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 1: OKAC defense is elite with Chet and still very good 339 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:56,960 Speaker 1: without him. The Spurs defense is elite with Wemby and 340 00:16:57,040 --> 00:16:59,480 Speaker 1: goes to blow average without him. I think he's the 341 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 1: best defender in the NBA by country. Mile still has 342 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 1: plenty of room to improve, which is terrifying. So what 343 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:07,239 Speaker 1: you're essentially betting with the Defensive Player of the Year 344 00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 1: award is not who's the defensive player of the year. 345 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:11,680 Speaker 1: Wenby's the defensive player of the year. You're betting whether 346 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 1: or not you think Wenby is going to miss four 347 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 1: more games and So if the under four missed games 348 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:20,439 Speaker 1: is minus two fifty and the over missed four games 349 00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:23,040 Speaker 1: is plus two thirty, I'm probably gonna take the over 350 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:25,880 Speaker 1: because I would argue that's roughly about a coin flip 351 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:28,160 Speaker 1: right now, and Chet's getting better odds, so that's probably 352 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:31,240 Speaker 1: your best value played. But if the season ended today, 353 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:33,760 Speaker 1: I think Wenby is clearly the defensive player of the year. 354 00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:37,400 Speaker 1: Today's show is brought to you by a presenting sponsor, 355 00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:40,119 Speaker 1: hard Rock Bet, the official sportsbook partner of the Miami 356 00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 1: Heat and the Orlando Magic. What's better than the sound 357 00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:45,919 Speaker 1: of the ball on the hardwood, sneakers squeaking, and the 358 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:48,800 Speaker 1: swish of the net? Winning on hard rock Bet your 359 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 1: home for hoops action all season long, and if you 360 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:52,800 Speaker 1: want to score a major bucket, shoot your shot at 361 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:54,879 Speaker 1: the same game parlay. Stack your picks on hard rock 362 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:57,119 Speaker 1: Bet and see your odds grow. 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Concerned about 381 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,760 Speaker 1: gambling in Florida, call one eight three to three play wise. 382 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 1: In Indiana, If you or someone you know has a 383 00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 1: gambling problem and wants help, call one eight hundred and 384 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:56,119 Speaker 1: nine with it. In Ohio call one eight hundred My 385 00:18:56,600 --> 00:19:02,080 Speaker 1: reset gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler and Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, 386 00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:03,919 Speaker 1: New Jersey, Tennessee, or Virginia. 387 00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:06,680 Speaker 2: Coach of the Year. 388 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 1: This one's a slam dunk for JB. Bickerstaff and I 389 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:11,320 Speaker 1: before you know, we're not going to get into, like, 390 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:13,600 Speaker 1: you know, different betting opportunities here because JB's just gonna 391 00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:15,560 Speaker 1: win it. But I really just want to dive into 392 00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 1: specifically why I think JB deserves this award. It's not 393 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 1: just as simple as Detroit having the best record. It's 394 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:25,200 Speaker 1: their strong identity, the one that exists regardless of who 395 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:26,600 Speaker 1: is on the floor, which I think is always a 396 00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 1: feather in the cap of the head coach. Those of 397 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:30,439 Speaker 1: you guys who've been listening to the show for a 398 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 1: while might remember an episode last year when the Calves 399 00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:35,080 Speaker 1: were starting to go on their run, when I had 400 00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:38,119 Speaker 1: Carter Rodriguez on the show and we were discussing all 401 00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:41,200 Speaker 1: the different things that Kenny Atkinson had done to improve 402 00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:44,879 Speaker 1: the team. The emphasis I'm playing in transition more, the 403 00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 1: hunting of transition threes, early offense threes, the emphasis on 404 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:50,560 Speaker 1: driving kick when they got in the half court, the 405 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:53,600 Speaker 1: emphasis I'm forcing turnovers on defense, a lot of more 406 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,159 Speaker 1: aggressive ball pressure and attacking the basketball to try to 407 00:19:56,200 --> 00:20:00,480 Speaker 1: spark more of those transition opportunities. All things we've talked 408 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:02,359 Speaker 1: about that every team should be doing. These are the 409 00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:04,119 Speaker 1: same things that we talked about with like the Pacers 410 00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:06,160 Speaker 1: last year that we was feeling a lot of their success, 411 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 1: Like these are margins that every team should be hunting. 412 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 1: Ball pressure to make ball handlers uncomfortable. That ball pressure 413 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:15,520 Speaker 1: also forces turnovers, which can spark transition opportunities. Every transition 414 00:20:15,560 --> 00:20:18,600 Speaker 1: offensive possession is far more efficient than half court offensive possessions. 415 00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:21,200 Speaker 1: You should be hunting them as much as possible. Spot 416 00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:23,480 Speaker 1: up opportunities are far more efficient than any sort of 417 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:25,720 Speaker 1: on ball opportunities, So you should be hunting as many 418 00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:29,159 Speaker 1: spot up opportunities as possible. With dribble penetration and emphasizing 419 00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:32,399 Speaker 1: driving kick, these are all things that every coach in 420 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:34,720 Speaker 1: the NBA should be doing. And what I thought was 421 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:38,800 Speaker 1: interesting is Carter in that pod was like JB. Bickerstaff 422 00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:41,400 Speaker 1: was preaching all of these same things to the Cavs, 423 00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:44,879 Speaker 1: but that sometimes the locker room just needs a different voice. 424 00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:47,200 Speaker 1: He had been there for a half decade, they needed 425 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:50,080 Speaker 1: a different voice. He moved on and he's been the 426 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:53,800 Speaker 1: perfect voice for this Pistons locker room. He's achieving a 427 00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:56,200 Speaker 1: level of buying down the roster that I think is 428 00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 1: super impressive, and again there's a strong team wide identity. 429 00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:02,520 Speaker 1: One of the biggest things that I point to as 430 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:06,560 Speaker 1: an indicator of a strong coaching presence is how your 431 00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 1: team performs on the margins, how well does your team 432 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:12,359 Speaker 1: excel and everything that's outside of the half court, because 433 00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 1: when you get in the half court, obviously coaching still 434 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:16,080 Speaker 1: plays a role in terms of your system, but that's 435 00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:19,240 Speaker 1: where individual greatness can really take over. That's where having 436 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:21,240 Speaker 1: a kid cunning game, having a Luka Doncich, having a 437 00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:23,520 Speaker 1: Nicola Jokic makes up for a lot of what a 438 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 1: coach can do in those sorts of situations in the margins. 439 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:32,159 Speaker 1: That's all a coach preaching fundamentals. What your transition defense 440 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:35,240 Speaker 1: principles look like, what your transition offense principles look like, 441 00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:39,119 Speaker 1: how often you're running as a habit, because again, if 442 00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:41,959 Speaker 1: you want to emphasize transition possessions, you've got to have 443 00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:43,760 Speaker 1: a habit or running. You got to have guys that 444 00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:46,480 Speaker 1: really enjoy being in the open floor and don't like 445 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:48,639 Speaker 1: to walk the ball up and down. Right, and the 446 00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:52,679 Speaker 1: Pistons just absolutely crushed teams on the margins. Cleaning the 447 00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,360 Speaker 1: Glass has this catch all transition metric that I've used 448 00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:57,399 Speaker 1: a lot over the years. They call it transition points 449 00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,440 Speaker 1: added per one hundred possessions. It basically just takes aination 450 00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 1: of like the frequency how often you allow a team 451 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,520 Speaker 1: to get in transition and how efficient they are when 452 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,840 Speaker 1: they get in transition. Detroit is top ten in both 453 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,600 Speaker 1: transition points added per one hundred possessions on offense and 454 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:14,800 Speaker 1: on defense, according to Cleaning and the Glass, so strong 455 00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:17,520 Speaker 1: fundamentals in transition on both ends of the floor. The 456 00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:20,000 Speaker 1: outscored teams by five and a half points per game 457 00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:22,880 Speaker 1: every single game. Off of turnovers, they outscored teams by 458 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,680 Speaker 1: two points per game, and second chance points they outscored 459 00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,520 Speaker 1: teams by four point nine points per game just strictly 460 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:33,480 Speaker 1: in the fast break, So like they're capitalizing on every 461 00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:36,200 Speaker 1: single like one of those like coaching type of metrics 462 00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 1: that we look at around the league. Another very simple 463 00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:41,880 Speaker 1: way for me to put this is, I don't think 464 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,960 Speaker 1: the Pistons have the most talented roster in the NBA. 465 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,560 Speaker 1: They're a talented roster, but they're not out there just 466 00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:52,600 Speaker 1: overwhelming teams with talent by any measure. Though this has 467 00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:54,880 Speaker 1: been the best team in the NBA this year. They 468 00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:57,919 Speaker 1: have the best record, they have the best performance in 469 00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:00,040 Speaker 1: games against the best teams. We mentioned this earlier in 470 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:03,520 Speaker 1: the show, but OKAC has a better overall net rating 471 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,800 Speaker 1: for the entire season because they've been beating the hell 472 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:08,439 Speaker 1: out of all the bad teams in the league. But 473 00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:11,199 Speaker 1: Detroit ten and three against teams in the top ten 474 00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:14,040 Speaker 1: point differential, outscoring them by an average of five point 475 00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:17,720 Speaker 1: seven points per game OKAC six and eight point differential 476 00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:20,840 Speaker 1: of just zero point one in those games. So they're 477 00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:24,520 Speaker 1: outperforming expectations better than any team in the NBA by 478 00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:25,520 Speaker 1: a wide margin. 479 00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:26,760 Speaker 2: And that is why JB. 480 00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:31,600 Speaker 1: Bickerstaff is the runaway Coach of the Year favorite. All Right, 481 00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:35,040 Speaker 1: we got we're gonna do all NBA Most Improved and 482 00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:37,840 Speaker 1: sixth man before we get out of here today all NBA. 483 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,560 Speaker 1: This one is also just super tricky because of the 484 00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:44,200 Speaker 1: sixty five game rule. So Lebron and Giannis are already out. 485 00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 1: There's a legitimately high possibility that Luka, Nicolea Jokics, Victor Womanyama, 486 00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:52,359 Speaker 1: Steph Curry, Devin Booker, and Kawhi Leonard all missed the 487 00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:54,760 Speaker 1: sixty five game cut. All those guys are like a 488 00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:57,520 Speaker 1: two week injury or one week injury away from basically 489 00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 1: being disqualified from All NBA. So we could end up 490 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:05,680 Speaker 1: with like a truly bizarre All NBA lineup here if 491 00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:08,119 Speaker 1: things go wrong in terms of the injuries down the stretch. 492 00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:11,080 Speaker 1: But just for fun, let's just assume that all these 493 00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:13,040 Speaker 1: guys play the rest of the season and we don't 494 00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:17,720 Speaker 1: have that particular issue. First team, I think there's four locks. 495 00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:20,320 Speaker 1: Nikole jokicch is a lock if he again if he 496 00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:23,520 Speaker 1: can stay healthy, Shay's a lock, Luka is a lock. 497 00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:27,760 Speaker 1: I think Anthony Edwards is a lock. I considered three 498 00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:30,840 Speaker 1: different guys for that first team spot, that final first 499 00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:33,840 Speaker 1: team spot. I looked at Jalen Brown, Kawhi Leonard, and 500 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:37,359 Speaker 1: Victor Weman Yama. And you know, the Kawhi Jalen Brown 501 00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:41,440 Speaker 1: debate is fascinating because I actually do think Kawhi is 502 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,800 Speaker 1: a better basketball player than Jlen Brown. But Jalen obviously 503 00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:47,280 Speaker 1: more team success and he's been a little bit more 504 00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:48,200 Speaker 1: available this year. 505 00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:49,120 Speaker 2: That gives him a nod. 506 00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:51,840 Speaker 1: But I ended up putting Wemby over both of them 507 00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:54,280 Speaker 1: one because I think the Spurs record is just too 508 00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:57,640 Speaker 1: tough to deny at this point, especially considering again you're 509 00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:01,440 Speaker 1: playing in that brutal Western Conference. His on off numbers 510 00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:05,760 Speaker 1: are insane, Like, he's plus eleven the Spurs are eleven 511 00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:08,399 Speaker 1: points worse per one hundred possessions when he's off the 512 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:11,360 Speaker 1: floor versus on. That's the same as Kawhi. Kawhi has 513 00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:13,680 Speaker 1: a plus eleven on off. But we're talking about a 514 00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:16,560 Speaker 1: team that's below five hundred versus one of the most 515 00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:20,160 Speaker 1: dominant teams in the NBA all this season. So Wemby, again, 516 00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:24,600 Speaker 1: you're getting pretty solid offensive production efficiently in the mid twenties, 517 00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,640 Speaker 1: but you're also getting defensive Player of the Year level 518 00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,439 Speaker 1: contribution for a team that's been better than both the 519 00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:32,920 Speaker 1: Spurs or than both the Clippers and the Celtics. So 520 00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,160 Speaker 1: I ended up giving Wemby the nod for First Team. 521 00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 1: You know, I always you know, Bill Simmons used to 522 00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,000 Speaker 1: always frame it like this, and I actually agree with him, 523 00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:42,280 Speaker 1: Like the all NBA teams should look like a rough 524 00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:46,600 Speaker 1: snapshot of what the league looked like in that particular season, 525 00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,160 Speaker 1: And to me, Wenby just feels like a guy who 526 00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:50,880 Speaker 1: you would look at as one of the five most 527 00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:55,600 Speaker 1: influential and impactful players of this particular season. So Jokic, 528 00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:59,960 Speaker 1: Shay Luka, Anthony Edwards, and Wemby would be my first 529 00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:03,000 Speaker 1: team if the season ended today. Second team, there are 530 00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:06,800 Speaker 1: a couple of absolute locks like Kad Cunningham absolute lock, 531 00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:12,200 Speaker 1: Jlen Brown absolute lock at this point, Kawhile Entard absolute lock. 532 00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,040 Speaker 1: From there, it gets a little tricky with the guards. 533 00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,160 Speaker 1: And there's a bunch of dudes you're considering there, right, 534 00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:21,600 Speaker 1: Jalen Brunson, You're considering Donovan Mitchell, You're considering Tyrese Maxi, 535 00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:26,560 Speaker 1: Jamal Murray, Devin Booker, Steph Curry, And I'm gonna lean 536 00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:29,800 Speaker 1: towards team success in this particular case. So Jalen Brunson, 537 00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:31,119 Speaker 1: who I think this has been the best season of 538 00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:34,560 Speaker 1: his career. He was They're in a stretch surrounding the 539 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,000 Speaker 1: n season tournament, about the month or so prior he 540 00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:40,320 Speaker 1: was legitimately playing at a top tier superstar level. It's 541 00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:43,520 Speaker 1: been a little inconsistent since then, but overall he's been 542 00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:46,000 Speaker 1: kind of like in that fringe zone between what I 543 00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:47,960 Speaker 1: would consider to be a top tier superstar and one 544 00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:49,840 Speaker 1: of the second tier guys. So I give the nod 545 00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,400 Speaker 1: to Jalen Brunson there, and then Donovan Mitchell. I've talked 546 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:55,000 Speaker 1: about this before. He deserves a ton of credit for 547 00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:57,600 Speaker 1: floating the ship for this Cavs team this year, consistently 548 00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:00,840 Speaker 1: being available, consistently producing for team that has just been 549 00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:04,600 Speaker 1: absolutely ravaged by injuries. Donovan Mitchell got the nod for 550 00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:09,480 Speaker 1: me for second team. Third team. I thought these were 551 00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:12,200 Speaker 1: the clear five. I think there's a pretty substantial dropoff 552 00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:14,600 Speaker 1: after these five when you get to more of like 553 00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:17,840 Speaker 1: the deniav Dya Alpern Shangun kind of crew. Those guys 554 00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:20,320 Speaker 1: I had a pretty substantial drop off, So third team 555 00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:23,800 Speaker 1: pretty easy. Tyree Smaxi been the best player on the 556 00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,480 Speaker 1: Philadelphia seventy six ers this year, has made a substantial 557 00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:29,720 Speaker 1: leap in terms of his scoring consistency. That's brought him 558 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:32,320 Speaker 1: into that tier of guards that's higher up in the league. 559 00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:34,679 Speaker 1: Kevin Durant kind of like a lesser version of the 560 00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:36,960 Speaker 1: Donovan Mitchell case, has really been carrying the load in 561 00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:40,720 Speaker 1: terms of availability and consistent production for that Houston Rockets team. 562 00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:42,080 Speaker 2: Jamal Murray one. 563 00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:44,240 Speaker 1: Of my predictions from before the season that I got right, 564 00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:45,960 Speaker 1: not right about everything I've been wrong about a lot 565 00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:48,359 Speaker 1: this year, but I did think Jamal was going to 566 00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:50,440 Speaker 1: have an awesome season. He's had an awesome season. I 567 00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:52,679 Speaker 1: think he deserves that third team All NBA spot. Deserves 568 00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:55,720 Speaker 1: a lot of credit for helping to float the Nuggets 569 00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:58,760 Speaker 1: when Nikole Jokic was out this year. He's been like 570 00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:01,439 Speaker 1: playoff Jamal Murray in the regular season in terms of 571 00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:06,280 Speaker 1: the consistent scoring and efficiency. Devin Booker the offensive engine 572 00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:10,560 Speaker 1: driving that overachieving Phoenix Suns team. And then Steph Curry Again, 573 00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,240 Speaker 1: Steph Curry, I think you know, Jackson and I were 574 00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:15,280 Speaker 1: talking about this before recording today. There's a lot of 575 00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:17,880 Speaker 1: guys on that first and second team that you consider 576 00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:20,840 Speaker 1: taking Steph over for a playoff series. But in the 577 00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:24,080 Speaker 1: regular season this it just hasn't amounted to enough team 578 00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:27,560 Speaker 1: success to justify anything higher than a third team selection. 579 00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,840 Speaker 1: So again, quick wrap up first team Jokich, Say Luca 580 00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:35,359 Speaker 1: and Wemby, Second team, Cade, Jaln Brown, Kawhi Leonard, Jalen Brunson, 581 00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:39,000 Speaker 1: Donovan Mitchell, Third team, Tyres Maxi, Kevin Durant, Jamal Murray, 582 00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:42,120 Speaker 1: Devin Booker, and Steph Curry. All Right, we're gonna go 583 00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,520 Speaker 1: through these last two pretty quick. 584 00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:44,800 Speaker 2: Here. 585 00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:48,520 Speaker 1: Most improved player the lines right now, Denny Avdia is 586 00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:51,120 Speaker 1: minus won twenty. Jalen Johnson is plus two to forty. 587 00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:53,760 Speaker 1: Big drop off there to Kiante George a plus eight hundred, 588 00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:56,160 Speaker 1: which was a little surprising for me because I think 589 00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:58,800 Speaker 1: Keante is an obvious third, but I would put him 590 00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:00,760 Speaker 1: a little closer. I think he's had a really, really 591 00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:03,640 Speaker 1: impressive leap this season. There's kind of an interesting betting 592 00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,960 Speaker 1: opportunity on the Jalen Johnson side. If the season ended today, 593 00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:10,080 Speaker 1: Denny's the most improved player. He's the better basketball player 594 00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,360 Speaker 1: right now. I think he impacts winning at a higher 595 00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:16,440 Speaker 1: level than Jalen Johnson, specifically because he's that self creating 596 00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:19,400 Speaker 1: offensive engine type that I've always just valued more right 597 00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:22,000 Speaker 1: We've discussed it at length this year. He's a relentless 598 00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:24,520 Speaker 1: driver of the basketball, but he also mixes in a 599 00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:27,000 Speaker 1: beautiful change of pace to his game. We're in the 600 00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:28,640 Speaker 1: middle of the floor, he can slow down, put the 601 00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:30,480 Speaker 1: defender in jail. He has a great size there in 602 00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:32,720 Speaker 1: the middle of the floor, and then he can methodically 603 00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:34,680 Speaker 1: pick you apart in those spots. He's very good at 604 00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,120 Speaker 1: kind of waiting for openings to generate around the basket 605 00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:39,280 Speaker 1: and kind of slithering his way through to find layups. 606 00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:41,560 Speaker 1: He's very good at getting to the foul line. He's 607 00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:43,880 Speaker 1: good at making all of the reads in those situations, 608 00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:47,000 Speaker 1: and the Portland Trailblazer offense just falls apart when he's 609 00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,160 Speaker 1: off the floor. That's how gifted of an offensive engine 610 00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:51,560 Speaker 1: he has become. It's one of the most important archetypes 611 00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:54,000 Speaker 1: in the NBA right now. If the season ended today, 612 00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:56,160 Speaker 1: Denny's the best player in that group, He's the most 613 00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:58,680 Speaker 1: improved player in that group. He would get the award. 614 00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:02,720 Speaker 1: But since that back injury he suffered against the Knicks, 615 00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:05,080 Speaker 1: Denny's looked a little bit shaky. He's everged just nineteen 616 00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:06,720 Speaker 1: points per game in his last six games. He has 617 00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:10,320 Speaker 1: looked a little less explosive. Not hard to imagine why 618 00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:13,400 Speaker 1: with the back injury. Right, So like, if Denny tails 619 00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:16,040 Speaker 1: off this year, then Jalen's gonna win the award, So 620 00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:18,920 Speaker 1: there might be some value there at Jalen Johnson at 621 00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:21,680 Speaker 1: plus two forty last week before we get out of 622 00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:24,320 Speaker 1: here today, sixth Man of the Year, Hard rock Bett 623 00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:26,760 Speaker 1: has it as a three man race. Nas Reed at 624 00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:30,200 Speaker 1: plus one ninety, Keldon Johnson at plus three twenty five 625 00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:33,160 Speaker 1: and Jaime Hakez at plus five twenty five. I look 626 00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:34,560 Speaker 1: at his more of a two man race. I mean, 627 00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:37,600 Speaker 1: Keldon and Jime have very similar kind of like play 628 00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:40,280 Speaker 1: styles as bullyball drivers, and Keldon has just done it 629 00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:42,440 Speaker 1: at a little higher level for a better team this year. 630 00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:44,080 Speaker 1: So I would I would look at it more as 631 00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:46,520 Speaker 1: like a two man race between Nas and Kelden. Also, 632 00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:49,680 Speaker 1: their teams are just more relevant, right, I actually lean 633 00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:52,800 Speaker 1: towards Kelden here. I'm a big nose Reed fan. It's 634 00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:54,720 Speaker 1: less about Nas and more about just how much I 635 00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:56,960 Speaker 1: like Kelden and what he's done for San Antonio this year. 636 00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:01,440 Speaker 1: He's brought a very important bullyball element to this team, 637 00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:03,360 Speaker 1: not just as a driver, but also as a cutter 638 00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,560 Speaker 1: and as a rebounder. He's been a guy that just 639 00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:08,840 Speaker 1: brings like the hammer off of the bench for San Antonio, 640 00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:12,840 Speaker 1: just brings a reliable power element to his game. He's 641 00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:15,640 Speaker 1: hit a lot of big, important catch and shoot threes 642 00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:18,160 Speaker 1: this year. That's honestly one of the big differences for me. Like, 643 00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:20,720 Speaker 1: if you look at nods and Keldon is generally on 644 00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:24,200 Speaker 1: the same footing. Kelden's been way better in the clutch 645 00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:26,200 Speaker 1: this year, so nas Reed is just two for twelve 646 00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:29,560 Speaker 1: from the field in clutch situations this season. Keldon is 647 00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:32,560 Speaker 1: seven for eleven, including three for four from three. If 648 00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:34,760 Speaker 1: the season ended today, my six fan of the Year 649 00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:37,680 Speaker 1: would be Keldon Johnson. All Right, guys, it's all I 650 00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:40,400 Speaker 1: have for today. Again, We're going to be back tomorrow 651 00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:43,040 Speaker 1: focusing entirely on Rookie of the Year. I want to 652 00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:45,240 Speaker 1: do deep dives on these guys, not just talking about 653 00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:47,200 Speaker 1: the Rookie of the Year award, but also talking about 654 00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:50,000 Speaker 1: just how I project their careers to move forward, areas 655 00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:51,880 Speaker 1: for opportunity. We're gonna be looking at it way more 656 00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,440 Speaker 1: as like a scouting type of pod. We're gonna go 657 00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:58,240 Speaker 1: deep on all of the rookies than on Thursday's pod. 658 00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:01,000 Speaker 1: We're going to be covering the top of the draft. 659 00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:04,080 Speaker 1: I'm gonna specifically be focusing on AJ Debonds, on Darren Peterson. 660 00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,040 Speaker 1: Darren's been such a fascinating player to me over the 661 00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:10,120 Speaker 1: course of the last a couple of months to watch 662 00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:12,560 Speaker 1: just these crazy moments that he's having. But there's some 663 00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:15,880 Speaker 1: tricky stuff with his desire to play and some weird 664 00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:18,840 Speaker 1: kind of just antics that I want to dive into 665 00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:22,000 Speaker 1: a little bit. But we're gonna be talking rookies on 666 00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:24,440 Speaker 1: Thursday and then we'll have our mail bag on Friday 667 00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:26,840 Speaker 1: as again, as always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for 668 00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:27,440 Speaker 1: rocking with us. 669 00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:28,040 Speaker 2: Will see more