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Speaker 1: tonight here at the volume, Happy Sunday, everybody hopeful, if
Speaker 1: you guys are having an incredible weekend. Just to give
Speaker 1: you a heads up at the schedule for today. Later tonight,
Speaker 1: I'm going with Colin Coward and we're gonna do a
Speaker 1: deep dive on a bunch of stuff for the NBA playoffs.
Speaker 1: So you're gonna want to head over to the Colin
Speaker 1: Coward podcast feed later tonight to see that episode. This episode,
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna give you, guys, like fifteen minutes my
Speaker 1: initial reactions on everything that went down in this chaotic day,
Speaker 1: final day of the NBA regular season. Not gonna do
Speaker 1: any sort of deep dives into playoff series previews because
Speaker 1: we're gonna start that tomorrow. We're gonna do deep dives
Speaker 1: on the three, six, and four to five matchups that
Speaker 1: we haven't hit yet, including film. We did already do
Speaker 1: the the four or five matchup out west, the Clippers
Speaker 1: MAVs series. We did a series preview with the Nerd
Speaker 1: Sash guys, so you can find that a little bit
Speaker 1: further back on the feed. You guys know the joke
Speaker 1: four we get started. Subscribe to our brand of YouTube channels.
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Speaker 1: It's also super helpful if you leave a rating in
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Speaker 1: gonna be hitting some mailbag during the week coming up.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk some basketball. So we had a
Speaker 1: bunch of blowouts today, but there was one in particular,
Speaker 1: two in particular that we're funky because the Pelicans and
Speaker 1: the Wolves were trying. The Wolves were trying to maintain
Speaker 1: the two seed, the all important two seed for home
Speaker 1: court advantage in a series against the Denver Nuggets, right
Speaker 1: if they were to make it to the second round.
Speaker 1: And then for the Pelicans, if they won today, they
Speaker 1: were guaranteed the sixth seed to stay out of the
Speaker 1: play in tournament. But both of them lose, and starting
Speaker 1: on Lakers Pelicans, you know, the Lakers have been a
Speaker 1: really tough matchup for the Pelicans all season. And I
Speaker 1: think I've talked a lot about how after you get
Speaker 1: past Denver, I think there are tiers still like I
Speaker 1: kind of have like the Pelicans, the Warriors, and the
Speaker 1: Kings kind of in that bottom tier, and then I
Speaker 1: have the Lakers, Suns, Mavericks, Clippers, Wolves, and Thunder and
Speaker 1: that tier right below Denver. Basically, but really all of
Speaker 1: those teams past Denver have significant flaws. That's why they're
Speaker 1: not Denver. And that makes them specifically matchup dependent, meaning
Speaker 1: if they play a certain type of team, they're gonna
Speaker 1: look great. If they play a different type of team,
Speaker 1: they can look bad. And so the Pelicans, for instance,
Speaker 1: the strength of that team is their perimeter defense. They've
Speaker 1: got tons of lanky on ball defenders for both the
Speaker 1: guard position and the wing position. They force a ton
Speaker 1: of turnovers, they get out in transition, and they score
Speaker 1: as a result. They're top ten in turnovers forced as
Speaker 1: a team, and they're top five in points scored off
Speaker 1: of turnovers per game. And so when they run into
Speaker 1: teams like Golden State, who are they depend entirely on
Speaker 1: a smaller guard perimeter initiator or Sacramento, a team that
Speaker 1: the Pelicans are also really dominated against this year. I
Speaker 1: think they're five and zero against the Pelicans or against
Speaker 1: the Kings this year. That's a small guard offense initiated team,
Speaker 1: so they can bother them with length, and then those
Speaker 1: teams also can occasionally struggle with turnovers, right, So like
Speaker 1: that's a big part of what allows the Pelicans to
Speaker 1: be successful in those particular matchups. Also, specifically with Golden State,
Speaker 1: they don't really have a ton of interior size to
Speaker 1: punish the Pelicans, who can be really weak defensively in
Speaker 1: the front court. Again, Zion Yonis or Zion at the five,
Speaker 1: or Zion and Larry Nance like that, that's just not
Speaker 1: good defensive personnel on the front line, and the problem
Speaker 1: is you go over to the other side of the Lakers,
Speaker 1: and it's like a perfect matchup for them. Like the
Speaker 1: Pelicans are a heavy ball pressure team. They want to
Speaker 1: get up into the ball handler and make him feel uncomfortable.
Speaker 1: The best counter for ball pressure is size, because any
Speaker 1: sort of large ball handler can just turn his back
Speaker 1: to the guy and protect the basketball as he kind
Speaker 1: of works his way up the floor. Ball pressure doesn't
Speaker 1: work on Lebron's too big, it is too strong. He
Speaker 1: completely picked the Pelicans apart in that game. And then
Speaker 1: aggression on the ball and aggression in the passing lanes
Speaker 1: puts a heavy emphasis on your back line to clean
Speaker 1: things up, and the Pelicans don't have good back line personnel,
Speaker 1: and so it literally plays directly into the Lakers' shrinks.
Speaker 1: All that ball pressure, all that aggression in the passing lanes,
Speaker 1: Lebron's just handling it and picking you apart and getting
Speaker 1: wide open dunks and layups on the back line. How
Speaker 1: many times did you see Anthony Davis slip behind the
Speaker 1: screen to defender for a love. How many times did
Speaker 1: you see Ruey cut along the baseline and get a
Speaker 1: little dunk underneath the basket as Lebron's picking them apart.
Speaker 1: There they had a fifty This is crazy. The Lakers
Speaker 1: had a fifty to twelve points in the paint advantage.
Speaker 1: So that's a big part of how these matchups tend
Speaker 1: to work out. And so even for the Pelicans, like
Speaker 1: it sucks because now you got to play the Lakers
Speaker 1: again in that playing game, and we're gonna talk about
Speaker 1: that in a minute, but like the upside is if
Speaker 1: you do drop that playing game, you're gonna play either
Speaker 1: the Kings or the Warriors in that second playing game,
Speaker 1: and that's a team that more fits into your matchups.
Speaker 1: And then also, like here's another thing too happen. If
Speaker 1: you happen to win that game, you get the one
Speaker 1: seed Oka See And I would pick okay See to
Speaker 1: win that series, but Oklahoma City, if you had to pick,
Speaker 1: if you're a Pelicans fan, if you had to pick
Speaker 1: between Oka See Minnesota and Denver okay See Denver Minnesota
Speaker 1: for that first round matchup, you'd much rather play Oka
Speaker 1: See because that plays more into your strength. Smaller perimeter initiators,
Speaker 1: not much interior size to kind of punish that. So
Speaker 1: if that's kind of like a little bit of a
Speaker 1: silver lining for the Pelicans on the other end of
Speaker 1: the floor. I thought, I wanted to just really quickly
Speaker 1: shout this out. I thought Lebron James obviously dominated this game,
Speaker 1: but the job he did on Zion Williamson completely shut
Speaker 1: him down, just completely shut him down, and that shut
Speaker 1: down the Pelicans offense and that was it. Like there
Speaker 1: were some tough shot making in there. Cj made some shots,
Speaker 1: Brandon Ingram made some shots, her Herb Jones add his
Speaker 1: catch and shoot three going, but they really didn't have
Speaker 1: anything going because Lebron shut down their offensive engine. Suns Wolves,
Speaker 1: I watched the first quarter of this one before we
Speaker 1: came on here. The Wolves had a red hot shooting
Speaker 1: first quarter, went up or excuse me, the Sons had
Speaker 1: a red hot shooting first quarter, particularly Bradley Beal, but
Speaker 1: everyone was hitting and they went up by twenty and
Speaker 1: then they were basically able to stiff arm the Timberwolves
Speaker 1: the rest of the rest of the way. Bradley Beal
Speaker 1: was red hot in that first quarter, hitting his pull
Speaker 1: up three, hit some huge pull up jump shots. In
Speaker 1: the game against the Kings the other night, He's playing
Speaker 1: at an absurdly high level, and so when the dust settles,
Speaker 1: here's our situation. In the four to five we have
Speaker 1: Dallas versus Los Angeles Clippers, and we did a series
Speaker 1: preview on that already, that's on our YouTube feed. Earlier
Speaker 1: we talked with the Nerd Sash guys. Again. My big
Speaker 1: thing there is, like, I think that series eventually skews
Speaker 1: towards Maxi, Kliba and PJ. Washington in the front court
Speaker 1: together with Luca and Kyrie and either Derek Jones Junior
Speaker 1: or someone like Dante exam in at that three spot
Speaker 1: kind of acting as their main on ball defender for
Speaker 1: the guard, and I think that series kind of slightly
Speaker 1: favors Dallas, especially considering some of the health configurations that
Speaker 1: the Clippers are dealing with. So you can find that
Speaker 1: full series preview up on YouTube. Suns Timberwolves again, they
Speaker 1: shot really well. This is a crazy stat The Sun's
Speaker 1: got one point seven to six points per catch and
Speaker 1: shoot jump shot in that game against the Timberwolves. Really
Speaker 1: really good shooting performance. So I'm excited to dig into
Speaker 1: the film tomorrow morning and give you guys a more
Speaker 1: cause I love that we have this game to prep
Speaker 1: for that series because it's the same team's, same lineups,
Speaker 1: but they're actually both trying really hard in that game.
Speaker 1: So after we sift through some of the shot results stuff,
Speaker 1: we're gonna be able to find out the shot quality
Speaker 1: information and find some interesting stuff about about that. So
Speaker 1: we'll have a I don't know if we'll do it
Speaker 1: Monday or Tuesday, but in the next two days we'll
Speaker 1: have a full series preview on Sun's Timberwolves to go over.
Speaker 1: So our play in situation as of right now is
Speaker 1: Lakers Pelicans again for starters, I think this one's gonna
Speaker 1: be closer the one on Tuesday Night. This is just
Speaker 1: it's an inherent natural human behavior thing where it's like
Speaker 1: the Lakers kicked the shit out of them, so they're
Speaker 1: gonna come in a little more relaxed. The Pelicans are
Speaker 1: gonna come in not wanting to get humiliated, so they're
Speaker 1: gonna come in a little bit tougher. Right. It's just
Speaker 1: it's just gonna be a different type of environment. So
Speaker 1: I do think it's gonna be closer. I actually have
Speaker 1: a personal example of this. I'll never forget. I've played
Speaker 1: in a money tournament. This was actually not that long ago.
Speaker 1: This was last fall when I was dealing with my
Speaker 1: achilles issue and I came back for this, uh this
Speaker 1: money term. I had not played basketball and like in
Speaker 1: like four weeks and I stepped on the floor for
Speaker 1: this money tournament. And we won every game up until
Speaker 1: the championship round. But it was double elimination, so we
Speaker 1: had to beat them twice and they had to But
Speaker 1: it was weird, like we we kicked the shit out
Speaker 1: of them in the first game, as this team from Phoenix,
Speaker 1: a bunch of these former college players from Phoenix. We
Speaker 1: kicked the shit out of them in the first game,
Speaker 1: like literally blitzed them. There was a point, but there
Speaker 1: was a rule where if you went up thirty in
Speaker 1: the second half, there was a forfeit, and so we
Speaker 1: literally went up thirty in the second half and kicked
Speaker 1: them off the court. We just played an incredibly high level,
Speaker 1: destroyed them, won the game. They had to turn around
Speaker 1: and play another game in the loser's bracket to come
Speaker 1: back and play us, And then they played us and
Speaker 1: it was single elimination, so they didn't even give us
Speaker 1: a second loss, and we just didn't shoot as well.
Speaker 1: We came out lazy. We weren't defending as well. They
Speaker 1: came out desperate. They actually were leading in the second half,
Speaker 1: I think by eleven on us in that game with
Speaker 1: the money on the line. Now, we we went on
Speaker 1: a crazy run at the end of the game on
Speaker 1: the strength of our defense, and we ended up stealing
Speaker 1: the money back and we got out of there with
Speaker 1: the win. But I vividly remember that being like, Wow,
Speaker 1: we could not have dominated them more than we did
Speaker 1: in that first game, and then suddenly we were on
Speaker 1: the ropes in the second game. So I don't want
Speaker 1: to write the Pelicans off in this game. Any sort
Speaker 1: of single elimination game can go any direction. Anthony Davis,
Speaker 1: this is dealing with some backspasms. I'm not particularly worried
Speaker 1: about that. Judging by eighty's body language when he was
Speaker 1: talking to Lebron, I think he was just kind of,
Speaker 1: you know, being a d But like, that game can
Speaker 1: go either way. But the bottom line is the Lakers'
Speaker 1: advantages are just significant. So like, even if that game
Speaker 1: does turn out close in the mid third quarter, the
Speaker 1: Lakers are just gonna get better shots down the stretch
Speaker 1: of that game, and I expect them to win. So
Speaker 1: I'm picking the Lakers to beat the Pels, but don't
Speaker 1: write off the Pells. They obviously have a chance to
Speaker 1: win that game. Warriors Kings. The Kings are three to
Speaker 1: one in that matchup this year. Kings are at home.
Speaker 1: They're twenty four and seventeen at home this season, But
Speaker 1: the Warriors are actually better on the road this year.
Speaker 1: They're twenty five and sixteen on the road this year,
Speaker 1: and they've been pretty mediocre at home and so so like. Honestly,
Speaker 1: I think that kind of plays into the Golden State strengths,
Speaker 1: especially considering some of the limitations for Sacramento without Malik Monk,
Speaker 1: Deer and Fox, is really their only perimeter initiate or
Speaker 1: that can like consistently generate great shots, and the Warriors
Speaker 1: are just gonna be able to keep a like Tier
Speaker 1: one perimeter on him all game long, cycling in fresh legs,
Speaker 1: not having to worry about second side creation as much.
Speaker 1: I think that favors Golden State. Also, one last note
Speaker 1: for Golden State. They are plus fourteen this season with
Speaker 1: Draymond Green on the floor against the King, so I
Speaker 1: think that works to their favor. But regardless of who
Speaker 1: wins that game, if the Pelicans lose to the Lakers,
Speaker 1: Kings Warriors. Whoever wins is going to have to go
Speaker 1: play the New Orleans Pelicans in New Orleans. And like
Speaker 1: I said earlier, they're five and zero against the Kings.
Speaker 1: The Warriors beat them early in the season, but the
Speaker 1: Pelicans have kind of handled them in back to back
Speaker 1: games both in Golden State. And again, same kind of
Speaker 1: thing we were talking about earlier. Two teams that rely
Speaker 1: on a guard to initiate everything. That just plays directly
Speaker 1: into the strengths of the Pelicans, and the Warriors don't
Speaker 1: really have the frontline scoring to kind of punish it.
Speaker 1: So hard to pick against Steph. And again, like the
Speaker 1: Warriors will be on the road, which I think is
Speaker 1: to their favor. I'm like a veteran team like that,
Speaker 1: you're gonna wanna give them a certain amount of belief
Speaker 1: in a big time game like that, but it's gonna
Speaker 1: be they're gonna throw the kitchen sink at Steph and
Speaker 1: you're gonna need young players or old veterans to try
Speaker 1: to come through on the other side of that. So
Speaker 1: hard to kind of like see a path to victory there.
Speaker 1: But we'll play it by ear when we get to
Speaker 1: Friday before we make any sort of pick there. But
Speaker 1: if I'm a Pelicans fan, you like that matchup. You
Speaker 1: like that matchup if you lose to the Lakers to
Speaker 1: deal with either Sacramento or Golden State and then obviously
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City in the first round for Lakers Nuggets. If
Speaker 1: the Lakers beat the Pelicans on Tuesday, obviously the Nuggets
Speaker 1: are waiting for them. That's less than ideal, but that's
Speaker 1: way better than having to deal with the nine to
Speaker 1: ten game and have to play a single elimination game
Speaker 1: on the road. So even though this is an unfortunate
Speaker 1: set of matchups for the Lakers, it is the best
Speaker 1: possible scenario out of all of these other play in
Speaker 1: scenarios that they could have had to face if they
Speaker 1: fell down into the nine to ten game. Now here's
Speaker 1: the thing. Nuggets are the better team. They they should
Speaker 1: be favored. Uh. The one thing that's different is this
Speaker 1: is a very different team than last year's Laker team.
Speaker 1: Some same personnel, right Delo Austin lebron ad but this
Speaker 1: is a five out offense that is an offensively focused team,
Speaker 1: whereas last year's team was a four out offense. More
Speaker 1: like space and spread, pick and roll, a lot of
Speaker 1: post up attack, and then they were a defensive focus team.
Speaker 1: And so that team was really good defensively and could
Speaker 1: really struggle offensively. This Lakers team is a really good
Speaker 1: offensive team that can go through significant defensive struggles. And
Speaker 1: more or less now, their last two matchups that took
Speaker 1: place in this calendar year, d Loo is out for
Speaker 1: the first one, but it was a close game, and
Speaker 1: then they got out executed late. And then Delo played
Speaker 1: in the second one and they looked better, right, They
Speaker 1: had some leads in the first half, but then the
Speaker 1: Nuggets walked them down and out executed them in the
Speaker 1: fourth quarter. So really, with the Nuggets, the Lakers are
Speaker 1: always right there, and then they lose the last five
Speaker 1: minutes every single time, and so really the only chance
Speaker 1: for victory for the Lakers there is to somehow flip
Speaker 1: that execution script. I will be picking the Nuggets in
Speaker 1: that series, but whatever percentage chance the Lakers have to
Speaker 1: win will come down to their late game execution. Out East,
Speaker 1: the Bucks hang around for a little bit with Orlando
Speaker 1: in the first half despite a nightmare shooting performance from Dame,
Speaker 1: but then they get blown out in the second half. Really,
Speaker 1: the only reason they hung around in that game is
Speaker 1: they were able to get to the foul line a
Speaker 1: lot with some grifty stuff. Then the Knicks almost blew
Speaker 1: it with turnovers against Chicago, but they did get out
Speaker 1: of there with they win. Think they're lucky stars that
Speaker 1: DeMar DeRozan missed that little one legged runner, because that
Speaker 1: was a pretty damn good look for him. So our
Speaker 1: situation is Indiana Milwaukee in the three to six. Milwaukee's
Speaker 1: won in three in this matchup this year, and by
Speaker 1: the way, they were trying to win those games. One
Speaker 1: of them was an N Season Tournament game. The two
Speaker 1: that were after the N Season Tournament, those were games
Speaker 1: where like Dame and Tyree Saliburton have a little personal
Speaker 1: beef going on, and the Bucks were really trying to
Speaker 1: win that game those games and they just couldn't. They
Speaker 1: got one of them, but they have a lot of
Speaker 1: trouble with this particular matchup. Why is really simple. This
Speaker 1: is one of the fastest teams in the league in Indiana,
Speaker 1: which is a team that was already one of the
Speaker 1: slowest teams in the league with Giannis and without Yannis.
Speaker 1: They're just really, really really slow, So it's like a
Speaker 1: horrible mismatch for them guarding in space, whether that's when
Speaker 1: they're in rotation, which Tyres Haliburton is an expert at
Speaker 1: getting a defense into rotation or pushing the ball in transition. Honestly,
Speaker 1: the main point of optimism there if you're a Bucks
Speaker 1: fan is Tyre's Halliburton hasn't really been the same guy
Speaker 1: that he was since he hurt his hamstring, and so
Speaker 1: that to me is something that we'll have to see
Speaker 1: the bear out there. Also, get ready for Tyres and
Speaker 1: Dame just to get attacked on the a defensive end
Speaker 1: every single time, because both of them are trocious. Tyree's
Speaker 1: had a nightmare game defensively against Cleveland. I was actually
Speaker 1: watching that game this morning, so that we're gonna again
Speaker 1: we're gonna do a deep dive into that series. But
Speaker 1: the main goal there for Milwaukee is like, you just
Speaker 1: got to somehow find a way to get that to
Speaker 1: two to two or two to one and hope to
Speaker 1: God that Jannis can come back at some point and
Speaker 1: then that he can just put on his cape and
Speaker 1: carry you to victory there. But that's just a tough
Speaker 1: matchup for them Orlando Cleveland. It's two two season series.
Speaker 1: Orlando won the last one in February in Cleveland. A
Speaker 1: lot going for Orlando in that series. They have excellent
Speaker 1: guard defenders, and Cleveland is a heavy pick and roll attack,
Speaker 1: so if you get good guard defenders there, you can
Speaker 1: slow down their pick and roll offense. Orlando is also
Speaker 1: an excellent offensive rebounding team, and the Cleveland Cavaliers really
Speaker 1: struggled with the Knicks in the first round series, specifically
Speaker 1: on the offensive glass, if you remember correctly, that's not
Speaker 1: a strong point for them. They've done better in the
Speaker 1: second half of the season, but that's not a strong
Speaker 1: point for them. So some matchup stuff that favors Orlando.
Speaker 1: But Cleveland is actually the more experienced team here and
Speaker 1: they just got embarrassed last year and learned an important
Speaker 1: lesson about losing those physical battles. So like that experience
Speaker 1: advantage I think favors Cleveland. Again. I'm not going to
Speaker 1: give a pick on any of these series until I
Speaker 1: dig into the film more Over. The next couple of
Speaker 1: days playing games, Philly hosting Miami. Winner gets to avoid
Speaker 1: Boston in the first round, so get ready for that
Speaker 1: to be a like a knockdown, drag out fight as
Speaker 1: both teams are fighting to get away from Boston. That's
Speaker 1: gonna be a hell of a game. Philly is one
Speaker 1: to zero this season in games that embat actually played.
Speaker 1: It is just a week and a half ago in Miami.
Speaker 1: Our other playing game is Chicago versus Atlanta. Atlanta just
Speaker 1: beat Chicago in Chicago in early April. But I'll be
Speaker 1: picking the loser of Miami and Philly versus either of
Speaker 1: those teams. Regardless. I do like Chicago better though, so
Speaker 1: I'm gonna pick Chicago in that matchup, which means we're
Speaker 1: gonna get Boston versus either Philly or Miami in all likelihood.
Speaker 1: Obviously you can't write off Chicago or Atlanta completely, but
Speaker 1: we're gonna get a pretty fun first round series there
Speaker 1: against Boston, which will just kind of keep things more
Speaker 1: interesting out east, considering the fact that there's a high
Speaker 1: probability in my opinion, that Boston just basically destroys everyone.
Speaker 1: So hopefully it'll just those teams will be able to
Speaker 1: at least keep it interesting. All right, guys. As I said,
Speaker 1: if you're looking for a series preview on Clippers maps,
Speaker 1: already on the feed the other three six four to
Speaker 1: five matchups we're gonna hit on Monday and Tuesday during
Speaker 1: the day we've got We've also got Colin Coward later tonight,
Speaker 1: so make sure you keep an eye on the Herd
Speaker 1: podcast feed the Colin Cower heard podcast speed for that
Speaker 1: show later on tonight. As always, I appreciate you guys,
Speaker 1: and I'll see you in a couple of hours. The
Speaker 1: volume