1 00:00:04,519 --> 00:00:08,480 Speaker 1: On this episode of news World two nineteen was the 2 00:00:08,560 --> 00:00:12,440 Speaker 1: last great year for the world economy. For generations, everything 3 00:00:12,440 --> 00:00:17,439 Speaker 1: has been getting faster, better, cheaper. Finally, we reached the 4 00:00:17,440 --> 00:00:20,279 Speaker 1: point that almost anything you could ever want could be 5 00:00:20,360 --> 00:00:23,320 Speaker 1: sent to your home within days, even hours, of when 6 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:27,639 Speaker 1: you decided you wanted it. America made that happen, but 7 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 1: now America has lost interest in keeping it going. Globe 8 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 1: spanning supply chains are only possible with the protection of 9 00:00:36,040 --> 00:00:40,839 Speaker 1: the US Navy. The American dollar underpins internationalized energy and 10 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 1: financial markets. Complex innovative industries were created to satisfy American consumers. 11 00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 1: American security policy forished warring nations to lay down their arms. 12 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 1: Billions of people across the world have been fed and 13 00:00:56,160 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 1: educated as the American led trade system spread. All this 14 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:05,120 Speaker 1: was artificial, All this was temporary. All this is ending. 15 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:08,319 Speaker 1: In his new book, The End of the World Is 16 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:13,559 Speaker 1: Just the Beginning, author and geopolitical strategist Peter Zihon maps 17 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:16,480 Speaker 1: out the next world, a world where countries or regions 18 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:19,319 Speaker 1: will have no choice but to make their own goods, 19 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 1: grow their own food, secure their own energy, fight their 20 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 1: own battles, and do it all with populations that are 21 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 1: both Shrinking and Aging here to talk about his new book. 22 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:34,000 Speaker 1: I'm really pleased to welcome my guest, Peter Zihon. He 23 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 1: is a geopolitical strategist founder of the consulting firm Zihon 24 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 1: on Geopolitics. In addition to his new book, he is 25 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 1: the author of Disunited Nations, The Absence Superpower, and The 26 00:01:46,040 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 1: Accidental Superpower. Peter, welcome and thank you for joining me 27 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 1: on news World. I just want to tell you I 28 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 1: faithfully read your newsletter on a regular basis. I find 29 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:09,919 Speaker 1: some way you write is so intelligent, so forward looking, 30 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:12,840 Speaker 1: that it really gets me thinking differently about some of 31 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:16,079 Speaker 1: these topics. So I'm thrilled you could join me today 32 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:18,720 Speaker 1: to talk about your new book, The End of the 33 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:22,560 Speaker 1: World is just the beginning, mapping the collapse of globalization. 34 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:25,360 Speaker 1: I thought we might start, though, with your last book, 35 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:30,360 Speaker 1: Disunited Nations, because after Russia sees Crimea in twenty fourteen, 36 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:34,360 Speaker 1: you predicted that Russia would invade all of Ukraine. What 37 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:38,359 Speaker 1: led you to believe that would be Putin's next step. Well, 38 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:42,840 Speaker 1: it's a mix of geography and demography. Demographically speaking, the 39 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 1: Russian population is dying out, and so if they were 40 00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:48,079 Speaker 1: going to try to do anything with a mass military action. 41 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:50,640 Speaker 1: It had to be now, if they had waited any longer, 42 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 1: they would literally not have enough people of aged draft. 43 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:57,840 Speaker 1: And then there's the geography. Russia has been invaded fifty 44 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:01,240 Speaker 1: odd times in its history and have always followed one 45 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:04,800 Speaker 1: of a series of corridors that are between a number 46 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 1: of pretty significant geopolitical barriers, like the Carpathian Mountains or 47 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:12,680 Speaker 1: the Arctic or the TNCN. And so Russia's policy, going 48 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 1: back to the time of Peter the Great has been 49 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:20,360 Speaker 1: to ford position as many forces in those gateways as possible. Unfortunately, 50 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 1: for Ukraine, the country is located between Russia and two 51 00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 1: of those gateways. So this war always happened, and demographics 52 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:30,919 Speaker 1: tell us that always happened to happen. Now, well, you 53 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 1: turned out, sadly to be but pretty prescient about that. 54 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 1: You know. There's been a lot of speculation recently about 55 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:41,760 Speaker 1: potential global food shortages due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 56 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:43,839 Speaker 1: And I must say I saw a briefing you gave 57 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 1: to a group of experts on world agriculture, and it 58 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:50,640 Speaker 1: was spectacular. Russia and Ukraine together export more than a 59 00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 1: quarter of the world's wheat, which then feeds billions of 60 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:57,520 Speaker 1: people in the form of bread, pasta, and package foods. 61 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 1: And they are also key suppliers of barley, sunflower seed, oil, 62 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:04,760 Speaker 1: and corn. How long do you think the war in 63 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 1: Ukraine will have an impact on the global food supply. 64 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 1: We actually haven't gotten to the first significant impact yet. Obviously, 65 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 1: we're seeing some rising in prices because the world's top 66 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:19,279 Speaker 1: wheat exporter has invaded the world's fourth largest wheat exporter 67 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:23,799 Speaker 1: and is systematically destroying the agricultural infrastructure. But the bigger 68 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:27,600 Speaker 1: problem is that the Russia plus Belarus are the world's 69 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:30,599 Speaker 1: largest exporter or fertilizer, particularly when it comes to the 70 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 1: potash varieties. So we were already looking down the maw 71 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:38,719 Speaker 1: of a fairly sharp reduction fertilizer availability globally before this 72 00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:42,640 Speaker 1: even happened. Now we've lost forty percent of global potash 73 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:46,400 Speaker 1: and most of nitrogen fertilizer comes from natural gas, of 74 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:49,919 Speaker 1: which Russia is also the world's largest exporter, So we 75 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:51,920 Speaker 1: have multitudes of farmers around the world who have had 76 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 1: to do something different. In the United States, we've seen 77 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 1: significant crops switching from things like corn or soy to hay, 78 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 1: and in South Asia and Sub Saharan Africa, a lot 79 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:05,440 Speaker 1: of farmers are just choosing to not use fertilizer because 80 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 1: they can't afford it. We won't fully understand just how 81 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 1: bad this is going to be until we get to 82 00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 1: the first couple of weeks of September. That's when we'll 83 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:17,520 Speaker 1: get our first real understanding of just how poor the 84 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:20,680 Speaker 1: coming harvest is going to be. And this is just 85 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 1: the start of a very long process. It takes a 86 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:26,920 Speaker 1: minimum of three years to bring a new fertilizer plant online, 87 00:05:27,320 --> 00:05:31,719 Speaker 1: and we have not even started a large scale replacement system. 88 00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 1: Some countries like the US and Canada Mexico are taking steps, 89 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:37,320 Speaker 1: but you shouldn't expect to see the beginning of that 90 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:41,479 Speaker 1: success until we get to the end of twenty twenty five, 91 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 1: and by then we will have years of famine on 92 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 1: multiple continents in our back pocket, you know. And your 93 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:52,359 Speaker 1: most recent newsletter article Inflation and Global food Prices, you 94 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 1: noted that we're already at our near historic high prices 95 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:59,680 Speaker 1: for almost all major commodity groups going back close to 96 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:02,840 Speaker 1: twenty years. By May of twenty twenty two, the world 97 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:05,760 Speaker 1: food price Index had risen to one hundred and fifty 98 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 1: seven point four, with vegetable oils increasing the most to 99 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 1: two hundred twenty nine point three. It's the highest it's 100 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:16,039 Speaker 1: been since two thousand and four. Do you sense one 101 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 1: that price is going to continue to go up and 102 00:06:17,839 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 1: two that there's just going to be playing outright shortages 103 00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:24,520 Speaker 1: for some countries at any price. Absolutely both. One of 104 00:06:24,520 --> 00:06:27,360 Speaker 1: the reasons why you follow vegetable oil is in places 105 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:30,599 Speaker 1: in the world that do not have reliable electricity, frying 106 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:32,360 Speaker 1: is one of the few ways that you can prepare 107 00:06:32,960 --> 00:06:37,839 Speaker 1: animal protein at volume, so food oils are critical for 108 00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 1: over half of the planet's population. Ukraine by itself is 109 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 1: the world's single largest supporter supplier of sunflower oil, and 110 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:47,680 Speaker 1: they're about seventy percent of the market all by themselves, 111 00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:51,040 Speaker 1: And so anyone else who is in the food oil business, 112 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:54,919 Speaker 1: whether it is soy or palm or whatever, has felt 113 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 1: the pressure as people have shifted to alternatives and there 114 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 1: just isn't that much liquidity in the market. It it's 115 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 1: starting right now with price pressure, but not necessarily high 116 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:11,840 Speaker 1: shortages because we have quote only lost Ukraine at this point, 117 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 1: but by the time we get to the fourth quarter 118 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:16,240 Speaker 1: of this year, it'll be apparent just how bad the 119 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 1: fertilizer issue is. We only have about two months of 120 00:07:21,320 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 1: global storage for wheat. Half of that is in China, 121 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:28,440 Speaker 1: and the Chinese storage system does not regulate temperature or humidity, 122 00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 1: so usually half of what they have in storage rots. 123 00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:34,120 Speaker 1: So we're going to chew through the entire global storage 124 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 1: capacity this year, and then the abject shortages will start 125 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 1: very early next you know, I think that I read 126 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:45,480 Speaker 1: somewhere that Indonesia for a while had cut off the 127 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:48,640 Speaker 1: export of palm oil. I think precisely because they were 128 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:51,520 Speaker 1: worried that their own people would be out of the 129 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:54,280 Speaker 1: ability to cook and to produce food. They've now I 130 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 1: think recently restarted it. But you know, sort of a 131 00:07:57,280 --> 00:07:58,840 Speaker 1: signal of what we're going to be seeing, I think 132 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 1: around the world absolutely, I've already had about thirty countries 133 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 1: that have some sort of agricultural restriction on exports, ranging 134 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:09,720 Speaker 1: from food oils to some of the cheaper proteins, to 135 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 1: certainly all the sorts of grains. We're going to be 136 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 1: seeing a lot more of that moving forward. Some of them, 137 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 1: like Indonesia, have managed to achieve that saturation that they 138 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 1: were trying for, and it has been successful, but every 139 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:23,640 Speaker 1: time one country does it, it puts pressure on all 140 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:26,520 Speaker 1: of the others. So the more internationalized a sector, the 141 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:30,040 Speaker 1: faster you can get to a price runaway structure. And 142 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 1: again September, that's what to watch for. When Kosto was 143 00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 1: the ambassador of the Vatican, we got to know Governor 144 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:39,200 Speaker 1: Beasley pretty well, who just got the Nobel Prize for 145 00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:43,640 Speaker 1: the World Food Organization. I mean, he's predicting tens of 146 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:46,960 Speaker 1: millions of people starving to death and just saying that 147 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 1: it's probably beyond our ability to fix. Now. It is 148 00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:54,400 Speaker 1: beyond our ability to fix. Agriculture is the most vulnerable sector. 149 00:08:54,559 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 1: If you have disruptions in heavy equipment or an energy 150 00:08:57,120 --> 00:09:00,600 Speaker 1: or in transport, Agriculture doesn't just simply take a hit. 151 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:03,480 Speaker 1: It can take a hit that cannot even be attempted 152 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:06,319 Speaker 1: to recover from until at least the next planting season. 153 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 1: So right now the damage has already been done, and 154 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:15,080 Speaker 1: until we can build out an alternate supply system for 155 00:09:15,160 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 1: these components, you should not expect much improvement. Instead, you 156 00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 1: should be expecting increasingly cascading failures. A good example is 157 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:26,560 Speaker 1: what's going on with the European sanctions on Russia. Right now, 158 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:29,800 Speaker 1: the Europeans are putting the finishing touches on a sanctions 159 00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:33,920 Speaker 1: package that will ban maritime insurers from ensuring cargo and 160 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:37,200 Speaker 1: Russian ports. That means we're not just losing the Russian stuff, 161 00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 1: We're losing all of the Russian stuff down streaming throughout 162 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:44,680 Speaker 1: the entire system. That is going to hit agricultural harder 163 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 1: than anywhere else. I'm obviously worried about the Middle East 164 00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:50,280 Speaker 1: because the last time we had a disruption out of 165 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 1: the Russian space, we generated the Arab Spring and the 166 00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 1: Syrian Civil War. But I'm even more worried about South Asia, 167 00:09:57,480 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 1: which depends upon this part of the world for the 168 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 1: fertilizer sourcing. Brazil's in a similar bucket. Not that I 169 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:06,120 Speaker 1: expect anyone in Brazil to starve, but eighty five percent 170 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:09,560 Speaker 1: of their fertilizers do come from the Russian space. They're 171 00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:13,200 Speaker 1: okay for this planting season, but they usually do two 172 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:15,079 Speaker 1: crops a year, and it's unclear where they're going to 173 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 1: get their inputs for the next one. I was struck, 174 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:20,720 Speaker 1: and it's something you'd written about that and I've been 175 00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:23,200 Speaker 1: trying to figure out how to write this concept down. 176 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 1: But it seems to me the way the world's evolving, 177 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:30,040 Speaker 1: we overvalue the ability of the Americans and the Europeans 178 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:33,679 Speaker 1: to provide sanctions when you have countries the size of 179 00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 1: China or India, or Indonesia or Iran who are going 180 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:41,840 Speaker 1: to break the sanctions. We're seeing a real shift in 181 00:10:42,160 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 1: certain kinds of dynamics in our diplomatic and political establishment. 182 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 1: It seems to me as twenty or thirty years behind 183 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:53,080 Speaker 1: the reality that, in fact, there's a little bit of 184 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:55,520 Speaker 1: the point you're making in your book that these countries 185 00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:57,640 Speaker 1: are going to operate out of their own self interest. 186 00:10:58,120 --> 00:10:59,920 Speaker 1: They're not going to operate out of some kind of 187 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:02,839 Speaker 1: belief in a club and they're not part of that club. 188 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 1: There are a lot of concerns that the European sanctioned 189 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:07,840 Speaker 1: package are not going to be enough, or that intoco 190 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:10,199 Speaker 1: dual countries are going to cheat on the sanctions or 191 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:12,160 Speaker 1: break them. I think we're going to hit a real 192 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 1: shock point later this year when it becomes apparent that 193 00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:18,320 Speaker 1: a lot of the Russian energy is falling offline. There 194 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 1: are a couple of natural gas pipelines, one that goes 195 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 1: direct to Turkey and one direct to Germany, so the 196 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 1: Russians are going to be able to have an actual 197 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:27,480 Speaker 1: honest conversation with the Germans and the Turks and say 198 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:30,000 Speaker 1: we can leave the lights on for you, but only 199 00:11:30,040 --> 00:11:33,040 Speaker 1: in exchange for you breaking your relationship with NATO. As 200 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:35,960 Speaker 1: regards the Ukraine War, if you had asked me how 201 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:39,080 Speaker 1: that conversation was going to go back on February twenty first, 202 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:40,920 Speaker 1: before the war, I would have absolutely said that the 203 00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:45,119 Speaker 1: Europeans were going to break. But right now the Europeans 204 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:47,600 Speaker 1: are more united than they have been on anything since 205 00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:51,679 Speaker 1: the Treaty of Westphalia in sixteen forty eight. This was unexpected, 206 00:11:51,720 --> 00:11:56,320 Speaker 1: to say the least, so I'm still broadly hopeful. But 207 00:11:56,440 --> 00:12:00,160 Speaker 1: to your larger point, you're absolutely right. Global is z 208 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:04,439 Speaker 1: only works if everyone cooperates with the rules. We are 209 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:08,200 Speaker 1: past that era, and so it's an open question of 210 00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:11,720 Speaker 1: who is going to be that lucky country who decides 211 00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:14,640 Speaker 1: to pull the plug in terms of the norms of shipping. 212 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:19,000 Speaker 1: I'm actually less concerned about that's being someplace like Germany 213 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:21,160 Speaker 1: or Turkey or Iran. I think it's more likely to 214 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 1: be the United States. One of the fun things about 215 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:27,600 Speaker 1: these new maritime sanctions that the Europeans have is that 216 00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:31,640 Speaker 1: if you cannot get a corporate policy for insurance, the 217 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:33,679 Speaker 1: only way that you can dock at a Russian portland 218 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:37,200 Speaker 1: is to get a sovereign indemnity. And if some country 219 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:40,679 Speaker 1: decides to challenge the sanctions and provide the insurance themselves, 220 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:44,760 Speaker 1: then what happens to them when something happens to that ship? 221 00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:49,240 Speaker 1: Because I can absolutely see France or Germany or the 222 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 1: UK or the United States or someone then intercepting the commerce, 223 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:57,040 Speaker 1: which will absolutely shatter the financial relationships or whatever that 224 00:12:57,080 --> 00:12:59,800 Speaker 1: country was, and they will be them legally responsible for 225 00:12:59,840 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 1: the entire downfall. So we're now in a situation where 226 00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:05,720 Speaker 1: not only have the countries that have benefited the most 227 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:09,360 Speaker 1: from globalization or turning against it, but the enforcer is 228 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:12,120 Speaker 1: as well. Walk me through the disper stage further. So 229 00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:16,040 Speaker 1: let's say the Indians decide that they'll create an insurance 230 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:20,840 Speaker 1: company and that their insurance company will replace Lloyd's and 231 00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:23,640 Speaker 1: we'll provide insurance for ships that are going to bring 232 00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:28,680 Speaker 1: things to India. What's their downside at that point should 233 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:31,520 Speaker 1: something happen to the vessel. The value of the cargo, 234 00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:33,840 Speaker 1: the value of the ship, and the financial position of 235 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:37,480 Speaker 1: the shipping company in question would all basically go to zero, 236 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 1: and it would be up to the Indian insurance company 237 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:45,560 Speaker 1: to satisfy the clauses for all three things. The last 238 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:47,440 Speaker 1: time we had to deal with an issue a bit 239 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:50,800 Speaker 1: like this, it was the Iran Iraq War, when the 240 00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:53,480 Speaker 1: Iranians and the Rockies had a stalemate on land, and 241 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:56,439 Speaker 1: so they started flinging missile at each other's corporate shipping, 242 00:13:57,080 --> 00:14:00,560 Speaker 1: and so the regular administration stepped in with a sovereignification 243 00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:04,680 Speaker 1: and physically escorted reflagged tankers in and out of the 244 00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:07,760 Speaker 1: Persian golf. But in a couple of weeks it took 245 00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:11,000 Speaker 1: the regular administration to come up with that patch. We 246 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 1: discovered that the loss provisions on the insurance policies were 247 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 1: very small because no one had ever considered that anyone 248 00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:22,960 Speaker 1: would shoot at corporate shipping during the globalized American led order. 249 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 1: And in the two weeks that it took us to 250 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:28,760 Speaker 1: come up with that plan, we almost saw a global 251 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:32,440 Speaker 1: financial catastrophe because all of the insurance companies nearly went 252 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:34,840 Speaker 1: bankrupt at the same time because there were no provisions. 253 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:38,440 Speaker 1: That's sort of the situation we're learned now. And if 254 00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:42,400 Speaker 1: any sovereign country decided to offer an indemnity and then 255 00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:45,640 Speaker 1: they had to pay out, you would probably look in 256 00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:50,560 Speaker 1: at cascading financial problems throughout their entire financial sector. And 257 00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:54,320 Speaker 1: despite what everybody says, the Indians and the Chinese are 258 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 1: completely dependent on internationalized trade in its current form in 259 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:01,840 Speaker 1: order to maintain their shipping networks, the resource access. So 260 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:05,080 Speaker 1: the catastrophic damage that could come to them from violating 261 00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 1: European sanctions is a lot more intense than I think 262 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:11,280 Speaker 1: that most people have priced in. I was really surprised 263 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:14,480 Speaker 1: at one level, because don't most insurance policies for shipping 264 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:17,760 Speaker 1: have some kind of a war clause that says you 265 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 1: can't go into a war zone. That's part of the 266 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:22,040 Speaker 1: issue as well. That's one of the reasons why Russian 267 00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 1: loadings at nover Acisk have been somewhat limited. Shipping companies 268 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:27,920 Speaker 1: can't get the insurance, so it would have to come 269 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 1: from a government, which means that the government would suffer 270 00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:34,680 Speaker 1: the full loss. Wow. So in that sense, there's a 271 00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:40,880 Speaker 1: globalized financial world without regard to a globalized political world. Absolutely, 272 00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:42,960 Speaker 1: money can fly around the world a lot faster than 273 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 1: a tanker full of oil. Hi. This is newt I 274 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 1: will be on talk shoplive dot com Monday, June twentieth 275 00:15:56,640 --> 00:16:00,440 Speaker 1: at six pm Eastern, and I'll be offering autographies of 276 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 1: my new book, Defeating Big Government Socialism Saving America's Future. 277 00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:08,040 Speaker 1: You can go to the talkshop live dot com home 278 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:11,800 Speaker 1: page right now and find my book there, or search 279 00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 1: my name and get my new book, Defeating Big Government Socialism. 280 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:20,800 Speaker 1: And I'll be live this Monday, June twentieth on talkshoplive 281 00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 1: dot com at six pm Eastern. Again, that's talkshop live 282 00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:35,320 Speaker 1: dot com. I hope you'll join me. I'm curious because 283 00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:39,480 Speaker 1: you look at these large, sweeping changes and you develop 284 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:42,080 Speaker 1: a sort of geopolitical approach. What led you to do that? 285 00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 1: This was actually supposed to have been my third book. 286 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:48,800 Speaker 1: The plan was always to write a couple of books 287 00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 1: on the rise and fall of the Great Nations, and 288 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:53,640 Speaker 1: that's really what my first three are about. I always 289 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:55,560 Speaker 1: intended the End of the World is just the beginning 290 00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:58,960 Speaker 1: to kind of be the last big hurrah from a 291 00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 1: business pointed to have everything expelled out and have a 292 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:05,360 Speaker 1: map for how everything was going to change as globalization 293 00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:08,200 Speaker 1: fell apart. But the publisher convinced me to switch book 294 00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 1: three in book four. So here we are with the 295 00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:14,399 Speaker 1: Ukraine War going hot and fast, and the book hasn't 296 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:17,400 Speaker 1: come out yet, so we're definitely focusing on the text 297 00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:19,280 Speaker 1: a lot more and what happens on the backside as 298 00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:22,800 Speaker 1: opposed to the transition. But I'm always obsessed with why 299 00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:25,920 Speaker 1: things work the way they do, and once I kind 300 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:30,120 Speaker 1: of understand the intellectual, physical, and corporate infrastructure that are 301 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:33,480 Speaker 1: behind things, you can then start pulling on some threads 302 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:37,439 Speaker 1: and seeing what moves. And ultimately that's what this book is. 303 00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:40,640 Speaker 1: You change a couple of the base understandings of how 304 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:44,680 Speaker 1: international trade functions, and you just watch how everything rearranges. 305 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:47,639 Speaker 1: It's striking to end. Of course, the things we're seeing 306 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:51,879 Speaker 1: happen right now reinforce your insight. But you say, the 307 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:54,320 Speaker 1: world of the past few decades you have been the 308 00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:57,159 Speaker 1: best it will be in our lifetime. That's a pretty 309 00:17:57,200 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 1: tough statement. It's actually pretty bag. Before World War Two, 310 00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 1: everyone shotting each other over trade. It took the Americans 311 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:09,800 Speaker 1: creation of the Global Order to give us mass manufacturing 312 00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:13,159 Speaker 1: and mass energy transport and mass agricultural transport that we 313 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:16,720 Speaker 1: recognize today as normal. But for the Americans it was 314 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:22,560 Speaker 1: always a security paradigm. We created globalization as a bribe 315 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:25,920 Speaker 1: to induce countries to join us in our Cold War 316 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:29,720 Speaker 1: with the Russians, and it worked. But since nineteen ninety 317 00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:32,239 Speaker 1: two we have elected a series of presidents that are 318 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:37,520 Speaker 1: ever more isolationist or vanchinists, and that means we're just 319 00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 1: pretty much done here, and that includes the transition from 320 00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 1: Trump to Biden as well. Neither of them, even if 321 00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:46,960 Speaker 1: they had been Cold warriors, were really interested in maintaining 322 00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 1: the economic structures of globalization any longer and about It's 323 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:53,920 Speaker 1: a position that is not on the outside of the 324 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 1: American political system. It is strongly bipartisan. Most Americans are 325 00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:01,159 Speaker 1: just done, especially with the rise of being perceived by 326 00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 1: many is a mortal threat. But just as big as 327 00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:09,159 Speaker 1: the demographic picture. It used to be in the preglobalized 328 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:12,439 Speaker 1: world that every country had more people on their teams 329 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:15,439 Speaker 1: than their twenties, than their thirties and so on. But 330 00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:19,920 Speaker 1: globalization led to industrialization and urbanization. And when you move 331 00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:22,639 Speaker 1: from a farm to a city, you have fewer kids 332 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:25,760 Speaker 1: because on the farm kids are free labor, but in 333 00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:29,359 Speaker 1: the city kids are very, very very expensive luxury goods. 334 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 1: So you have fewer of them. You play that forward 335 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:35,400 Speaker 1: around the world for seventy years, and we are now 336 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:37,440 Speaker 1: in an environment where a lot of countries have more 337 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:39,480 Speaker 1: people in their fifties than their forties, than their thirties, 338 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:42,320 Speaker 1: and their twenties and so on. The consumption boom that 339 00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:44,280 Speaker 1: you get from a lot of young people just isn't 340 00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:48,000 Speaker 1: there anymore, and many countries are aging into mass retirement 341 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 1: that changes the economic structure, and globalization more than anything else, 342 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:56,800 Speaker 1: is a way to provide goods for a large and 343 00:19:56,960 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 1: growing youth class that no longer exists. So we're getting 344 00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:07,640 Speaker 1: portrayed protectionism. We're getting problems with investment, which is shorting 345 00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:11,479 Speaker 1: out the energy sector. We're now seeing breaks in the system, 346 00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:13,320 Speaker 1: which is interrupting a lot of the flows of the 347 00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:15,879 Speaker 1: other things that we need, like fertilizer out of Russia. 348 00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:19,160 Speaker 1: So everything that we thought was normal for the last 349 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 1: forty years was really at just a very specific moment 350 00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:28,679 Speaker 1: in time politically, geopolitically, geographically, financially, demographically, and all of 351 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:31,840 Speaker 1: those moments have passed and we're now on the backside. Well, 352 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,200 Speaker 1: Yo in Japan, in as sense, was a fore runner, 353 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:36,760 Speaker 1: but I was surprised. I don't know if it's your 354 00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:40,720 Speaker 1: charge aware, but at its peak around nineteen ninety, Japan 355 00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:44,480 Speaker 1: was an amazingly large share of the world economy. Absolutely, 356 00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:48,920 Speaker 1: and now it's smaller, but it's still extraordinarily wealthy, and 357 00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:52,240 Speaker 1: it's shrinking every year. South Korea is now about to 358 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:54,760 Speaker 1: follow it. I think South Korea at one point had 359 00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:57,920 Speaker 1: the lowest reproduction rate in the world because of South 360 00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:01,879 Speaker 1: Korean women left the farm and went to apartments and cities. 361 00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:05,360 Speaker 1: They suddenly decided having that many kids wasn't a good idea. 362 00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:08,040 Speaker 1: I know that China is in a sense a really 363 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:11,440 Speaker 1: big example, but how are these secondary countries going to 364 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:15,320 Speaker 1: cope with the fact that they have smaller populations, they 365 00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:21,120 Speaker 1: have in a sense declining dynamic economically, and yet they're 366 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,639 Speaker 1: in a dangerous world. Japan's kind of the gold star 367 00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 1: example of how you might be able to pull it off. 368 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:30,760 Speaker 1: They've partnered with the United States in terms of security, 369 00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 1: so they have a backup plan, and they have forward 370 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:37,239 Speaker 1: positioned a lot of their industrial capacity in countries with 371 00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:41,960 Speaker 1: healthier demographies, both in order to purchase political friendship and 372 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 1: to be perfectly honest, to be able to make products 373 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:47,440 Speaker 1: at a price point that is still attractive. So Chiota 374 00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:51,119 Speaker 1: is probably the best example. Their two largest facilities aren't 375 00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:55,920 Speaker 1: even in Japan, they're in Texas and Kentucky. That sort 376 00:21:55,960 --> 00:22:00,639 Speaker 1: of desourcing is something that can theoretically be applicated by 377 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:02,960 Speaker 1: a number of countries, but you have to make sure 378 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:05,040 Speaker 1: that you have found a way to work hand in 379 00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:08,000 Speaker 1: glove with the countries in question. So Japan has a 380 00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:10,919 Speaker 1: partnership with the United States that dates back easily to 381 00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:13,680 Speaker 1: the Cold War, if not before, and in the post 382 00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:16,240 Speaker 1: Cold War era, they have come to the conclusion that 383 00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:20,159 Speaker 1: their demographic decline is so extreme and their dependence on 384 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:22,960 Speaker 1: imports is so extreme that they really don't have a 385 00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:26,320 Speaker 1: choice except for to seek to dup in that relationship. 386 00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:29,320 Speaker 1: Further so, they were able to cut a series of 387 00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:31,879 Speaker 1: deals with Trump administration, something that a lot of countries 388 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:35,200 Speaker 1: had a problem with as well as with the Biden administration, 389 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:39,600 Speaker 1: and that ability to cross the American political divide and 390 00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:43,600 Speaker 1: make friends on both sides has proven critical. Not a 391 00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:46,840 Speaker 1: lot of countries have that sort of foresight. Not a 392 00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:49,600 Speaker 1: lot of countries have as much to offer the United 393 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:52,080 Speaker 1: States as the Japanese have, and so it's going to 394 00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:54,280 Speaker 1: be a short list of countries that are able to 395 00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:57,280 Speaker 1: buy their way into America's Friends and Family Plan. If 396 00:22:57,280 --> 00:23:03,560 Speaker 1: you will Korea, maybe I want, probably the UK almost certainly, 397 00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:07,240 Speaker 1: But after that it gets very difficult. Wouldn't you put 398 00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:11,800 Speaker 1: Canada Australia on that basket? Australia absolutely. I would actually 399 00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:14,040 Speaker 1: say that the Australians were able to cut their deals 400 00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,800 Speaker 1: even before the Japanese, so they are one of our 401 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,360 Speaker 1: staunchest and most loyal allies and they will remain so 402 00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:22,560 Speaker 1: for a good long time. In the case of Canada, 403 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,199 Speaker 1: that's kind of a special case. The Canadians have always 404 00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:28,000 Speaker 1: tried to how can I say this without sounding like 405 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:32,040 Speaker 1: a jerk, The Canadians have always tried to give a 406 00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,679 Speaker 1: little bit of space when it comes to security issues 407 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:38,200 Speaker 1: in order to get more space back with economic issues. 408 00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:41,640 Speaker 1: It's been a very mild kind of black mail. And 409 00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:44,440 Speaker 1: during the Cold War they were always able to get 410 00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,040 Speaker 1: a few extractions from the United States in terms of 411 00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:50,639 Speaker 1: economic policy and trade access in exchange for giving the 412 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:54,240 Speaker 1: United States deference on security issues. And since they were 413 00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:57,040 Speaker 1: on the same continent with US, we were willing to 414 00:23:57,040 --> 00:23:59,160 Speaker 1: give them a little bit more space than we would 415 00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:03,360 Speaker 1: have for say, another country that stopped under the Trump administration. 416 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 1: All of the exemptions that the Canadians were able to 417 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:10,360 Speaker 1: get out of the United States over seven administrations during 418 00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:13,639 Speaker 1: the Cold War. We're all undone by the nafter revised records, 419 00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:16,359 Speaker 1: and so from our point of view now Canada is 420 00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:19,919 Speaker 1: just another country. We will see if that holds the 421 00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:22,840 Speaker 1: test of time. But the Canadians have discovered that in 422 00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:24,720 Speaker 1: a world where the United States really doesn't care about 423 00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:27,359 Speaker 1: the wider world, they don't have merely as much leverage 424 00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:30,200 Speaker 1: as they used to. As all of this stuff is evolving, 425 00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:35,000 Speaker 1: one of the things is striking because both with legal 426 00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:39,080 Speaker 1: and illegal immigration, we absorb so many people every year. 427 00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:43,840 Speaker 1: Unlike China or even India or Japan, we are not 428 00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:46,600 Speaker 1: likely to shrink in the near future. There are a 429 00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:48,960 Speaker 1: couple things that are different about the United States fundamentally. 430 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:52,280 Speaker 1: The first is immigration. As a rule, we do have 431 00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:54,840 Speaker 1: a culture that is more friendly to it now that 432 00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:58,200 Speaker 1: has changed of late, not just because of Trump. One 433 00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,960 Speaker 1: of the things that's going on in americanlical system is 434 00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:03,399 Speaker 1: that the factions that make up both the Republicans and 435 00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:07,720 Speaker 1: the Democrats are in motion. And Trump famously had his 436 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:11,920 Speaker 1: falling out with the business community, and he relatively successfully. 437 00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:16,000 Speaker 1: Melons scooped the entire community out of the Republican coalition 438 00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:18,399 Speaker 1: for the moment at least, and that was the faction 439 00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:22,600 Speaker 1: of the Republican Party that was most pro immigration. And 440 00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:26,760 Speaker 1: now the Trump Republicans and the Biden administration are in 441 00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:29,840 Speaker 1: a bit of a tug of war with organized labor. 442 00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:34,520 Speaker 1: Trump appealed to organized labor, Biden considers them his people. 443 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,080 Speaker 1: And so it's well, an open question is to where 444 00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:39,359 Speaker 1: organized labor is going to end up on the American 445 00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:43,679 Speaker 1: political spectrum. But if there's one thing that the organized 446 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:47,440 Speaker 1: labor movement is known for, it's for being antimigration. So 447 00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:51,480 Speaker 1: the current iteration of the Republican Party is fairly antiimmigrant, 448 00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,280 Speaker 1: and the current iteration of the Democratic Party is trying 449 00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:57,080 Speaker 1: to figure out what it is, and so that leaves 450 00:25:57,119 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 1: immigration in the lurch. And so we have seen migration 451 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:02,400 Speaker 1: and drop to the lowest level of the century at 452 00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:06,560 Speaker 1: the moment. I am hopeful that that will lift. Time 453 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:10,880 Speaker 1: will tell. The second big factor is the boomers themselves. 454 00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:13,920 Speaker 1: I mean, they were the largest generation we've ever had. 455 00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:17,520 Speaker 1: They're all nearing retirement at the same time, so we 456 00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:22,480 Speaker 1: have a labor pressure that is demographically driven as much 457 00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:25,000 Speaker 1: as it is because of immigration, and unfortunately it just 458 00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:42,639 Speaker 1: happens to be happening at the same time. As you 459 00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:44,760 Speaker 1: look at the world, and I think you have a 460 00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:49,439 Speaker 1: remarkable ability to extract unique insights and to put together 461 00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:51,960 Speaker 1: facts in a way most people don't. If you looked 462 00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:54,480 Speaker 1: out over say thirty or forty years, to what degree 463 00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:56,840 Speaker 1: do you think it's likely that at someplace on the 464 00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:01,200 Speaker 1: planet there will be a nuclear exchange? We certainly can't 465 00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:04,760 Speaker 1: rule it out. As the United States withdraws from the world, 466 00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:08,000 Speaker 1: countries that we used to protect, as a matter of course, 467 00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:09,800 Speaker 1: are going to feel that they need to get their 468 00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:12,119 Speaker 1: own security guaranteur, and getting a nuke is one of 469 00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,320 Speaker 1: the best ways to do that. It doesn't matter what 470 00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:16,680 Speaker 1: the country is, Japan, Germany, whatever. All of a sudden 471 00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:18,600 Speaker 1: it makes a degree of sense that it didn't before. 472 00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:21,000 Speaker 1: And then, of course, in the shorter term, we have 473 00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:25,679 Speaker 1: the Russia question. Everyone of course saw that massive convoy 474 00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:28,399 Speaker 1: of vehicles that was coming from Belarus to Kiev and 475 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:30,680 Speaker 1: the Opiate in days of the war, and then it 476 00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:33,080 Speaker 1: stopped after a day because it ran out of fuel, 477 00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:35,560 Speaker 1: and three days later all the soldiers walked back to 478 00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:38,440 Speaker 1: Belarus because they had run out of food. We now 479 00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:40,520 Speaker 1: know that the Russians are not the war fighters we 480 00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:43,359 Speaker 1: thought they were, and that means in a direct fight 481 00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:47,480 Speaker 1: between NATO forces and Russian forces, the Russians would have 482 00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:52,359 Speaker 1: a simple choice face obliteration and a screaming retreat all 483 00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:55,159 Speaker 1: the way back to Moscow, or up the anti to 484 00:27:55,320 --> 00:28:00,159 Speaker 1: involve nukes. So we're in this weird situation right now. 485 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:04,920 Speaker 1: We're trying to literally destroy the Russian military in Ukraine 486 00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:08,960 Speaker 1: because if we don't and the Russians continue on to 487 00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 1: those gateway places, then there will be a clash between 488 00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:17,000 Speaker 1: NATO and Russia because the Polish Gap and the best 489 00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:20,399 Speaker 1: Arabian gap, those are both in Natro countries. In fact, 490 00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 1: it was just on June nine that Putin gave his 491 00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:26,919 Speaker 1: most recent off the rocker speech, in which he said 492 00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:31,000 Speaker 1: that Estonia and Latvia have not just been Russian territories before, 493 00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:33,879 Speaker 1: but they have been Russian territories since the beginning, and 494 00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:37,600 Speaker 1: when Russia went to war with the Swedes in seventeen hundred, 495 00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:41,360 Speaker 1: it was about reclaiming those lands. He's already laying the 496 00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:45,280 Speaker 1: intellectual groundwork within Russia for an expansion of the war 497 00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:51,600 Speaker 1: to involve direct NATO confrontation. In nineteen ninety three, I 498 00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:55,480 Speaker 1: was part of a congressional delegation to the Yeltsin reform 499 00:28:55,680 --> 00:29:00,240 Speaker 1: government in the New Russian Federation, and we met the 500 00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:02,720 Speaker 1: vice president, who was an Air Force four star general, 501 00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,760 Speaker 1: and he was in this huge room that had almost 502 00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:10,240 Speaker 1: have been a forty feet long wall, and on that 503 00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:13,520 Speaker 1: wall was the map of the Soviet Union, and being 504 00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,680 Speaker 1: semi clever, I said to him, that's the map of 505 00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:19,920 Speaker 1: the Soviet Union up to me, and he said, yes, 506 00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:26,560 Speaker 1: it'll be like that again, and I thought, okay. And 507 00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:30,000 Speaker 1: he was part of Yeltsin's group, which were theoretically the reformers, 508 00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:32,880 Speaker 1: So it gave you some flavor of how deep great 509 00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:36,719 Speaker 1: Russian nationalism is. I have no doubt that the Russians 510 00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:40,960 Speaker 1: are being fed a steady diet of particularly vitriolic propaganda, 511 00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:44,960 Speaker 1: but I also know that if they weren't, most Russians 512 00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:48,840 Speaker 1: would still probably support the war. They really do see 513 00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:51,680 Speaker 1: this as an issue of national survival, and considering their 514 00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:56,600 Speaker 1: demographic structure in their history, they're not wrong. It's really 515 00:29:56,640 --> 00:30:00,520 Speaker 1: hard for Americans, partly because we're a polyglot country made 516 00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:03,680 Speaker 1: of people from everywhere, but partly because with the exception 517 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:07,440 Speaker 1: of the Civil War, we have been remarkably free of 518 00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:10,160 Speaker 1: the kind of fighting. I finished a book on why 519 00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:13,640 Speaker 1: the Germans failed in Russia, and when you look at 520 00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:17,280 Speaker 1: the scale of the Second World War following on the 521 00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:20,440 Speaker 1: First World War, with the Civil War and the famine 522 00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,640 Speaker 1: in between, I mean, the amount of brutality the Russian 523 00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:28,840 Speaker 1: people have had to endure, it's just astonishing and it 524 00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:32,120 Speaker 1: creates I think, as somebody once said, they knew that 525 00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:36,280 Speaker 1: the brief period of prosperity and openness wouldn't last because 526 00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:38,920 Speaker 1: they were going to go back to being Russians. There's 527 00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:42,640 Speaker 1: just this sort of underlying sense of endurance that's very 528 00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,960 Speaker 1: different than anything that we're used to. Well, we've only 529 00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:51,360 Speaker 1: faced two invasions in our history, both from our former 530 00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:56,160 Speaker 1: colonial master. The Russians have faced fifty. It's a very 531 00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:58,480 Speaker 1: different mindset where it comes out of a climate that 532 00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:01,640 Speaker 1: is cold, and land that is quality, and populations that 533 00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:05,360 Speaker 1: are not densely populated in cities, which makes it very 534 00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:08,760 Speaker 1: difficult for them to defend themselves. So their choices are 535 00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:13,280 Speaker 1: to expand to a perimeter that is more defensible, or 536 00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:18,320 Speaker 1: to subject themselves to slow motion collapse, and because we 537 00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:21,400 Speaker 1: can't give them what they want, because that would mean 538 00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:25,120 Speaker 1: subjugating a number of people that actually is larger in 539 00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:28,800 Speaker 1: number to the entire Russian ethnicity, that would have to 540 00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:31,560 Speaker 1: be their conquered population for them to feel safe. That 541 00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:34,400 Speaker 1: can't happen. So we are locked into this conflict in 542 00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:36,720 Speaker 1: Ukraine when we're or the other, and the way you're 543 00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:41,720 Speaker 1: describing it, you could imagine some kind of semi military 544 00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:45,680 Speaker 1: tension for the next thirty or forty years. Then it's 545 00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,720 Speaker 1: not a Putent problem, it's a Russian problem. I think 546 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:50,400 Speaker 1: it's going to be a lot more kinetic and a 547 00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:55,360 Speaker 1: lot shorter term than that. If the Russian military succeeds 548 00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:59,000 Speaker 1: in Ukraine, then we will have that natural confrontation in 549 00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:03,080 Speaker 1: a very short period time. But if the Russian military 550 00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:06,720 Speaker 1: can be gutted in Ukraine, then we formally begin the 551 00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,600 Speaker 1: twilight years of the Russian people and we will be 552 00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:12,840 Speaker 1: looking at full state disintegration within Russia in less than 553 00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:17,000 Speaker 1: twenty years, and it becomes like Syria or Lebanon. That 554 00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:20,320 Speaker 1: would be one of the better cases. Yes, yeah, it's amazing. 555 00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:22,440 Speaker 1: Let me ask one last question, which is what are 556 00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:26,760 Speaker 1: you working on next. So the whole idea of the 557 00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:28,920 Speaker 1: end of the world is just the beginning, is to 558 00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:32,480 Speaker 1: show what the map of the economy and the map 559 00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,480 Speaker 1: of the world looks like during this transition period. It's 560 00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:39,560 Speaker 1: difficult to understand historical time frames for most people, not 561 00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:41,720 Speaker 1: just Americans, because we never know when we're living in 562 00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:43,400 Speaker 1: a bad time until it's over. We never know when 563 00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,720 Speaker 1: we're living in a golden age until it's over. Well, 564 00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:48,600 Speaker 1: we've had this golden age of globalization now since nineteen 565 00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:51,920 Speaker 1: forty five, and especially since nineteen ninety two, and it 566 00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:56,240 Speaker 1: has been brilliant. We have seen greater expansions in trade 567 00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,480 Speaker 1: and greater expansions in human health than at any time 568 00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:03,240 Speaker 1: in human history. And it's lasted for decades. Now we're 569 00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:06,080 Speaker 1: going back to something a little bit more normal, and 570 00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:09,800 Speaker 1: we're in a transition period today between the glory of 571 00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:14,640 Speaker 1: the globalized order and the destruction of the disorder. Now 572 00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:17,680 Speaker 1: for the United States, we're going to enter this period 573 00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:24,200 Speaker 1: weaker than we exit it. So disruption, change collaps and 574 00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:27,360 Speaker 1: trade routes. That's actually good for the American consumer, the 575 00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:31,080 Speaker 1: American military, and the American citizenry. Our energy is local, 576 00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:34,160 Speaker 1: our food is local, our manufacturing is coming back. We 577 00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:36,320 Speaker 1: have a lot of high inflation to deal with between 578 00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:39,840 Speaker 1: now and then. But for the next fifteen to twenty years, 579 00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:41,520 Speaker 1: the United States is going to be get a bit 580 00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:45,360 Speaker 1: more powerful with each step. But after about twenty years, 581 00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:48,640 Speaker 1: one of two things is going to happen. One, some 582 00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:51,640 Speaker 1: regional power that we don't care for is going to 583 00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:55,120 Speaker 1: rise up and try to challenge the United States in 584 00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:58,200 Speaker 1: some way. Or two, we're going to see something that 585 00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:02,000 Speaker 1: scares us and we decide to venture out into the 586 00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:04,640 Speaker 1: world to deal with that threat, whatever it happens to be. 587 00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:09,440 Speaker 1: I am hopeful that the United States political system will 588 00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:11,359 Speaker 1: have healed by that point so we can all do 589 00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:14,600 Speaker 1: it together. But what we're going through here, this is 590 00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:18,080 Speaker 1: really nothing more than a transition. Transition of twenty years, 591 00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:21,399 Speaker 1: but still a transition. So if there is another book 592 00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:23,440 Speaker 1: in me, it will be about sketching out what that 593 00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:26,719 Speaker 1: world of the future happens to look like, and what 594 00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:30,759 Speaker 1: we will look like as we step bravely into some 595 00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:32,719 Speaker 1: place no one has ever been before. I mean, you're 596 00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:34,319 Speaker 1: sort of set up to write a book called the 597 00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:39,120 Speaker 1: Beginning of the Next World. Years ago, when Saddam has 598 00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:43,400 Speaker 1: seized Kuwait. I was in the middle of reading Green's 599 00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:47,120 Speaker 1: book From Alexander to Actium, which is a study of 600 00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:51,960 Speaker 1: the Hellenistic world, and all of a sudden, around I 601 00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:56,839 Speaker 1: think two hundred BC, the Greeks encounter the Romans in 602 00:34:56,880 --> 00:35:02,360 Speaker 1: an organized way, and the Romans this model of bureaucratic leadership, 603 00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:05,600 Speaker 1: where if this general fails, there's a new general. Where 604 00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:08,880 Speaker 1: the Greek system was organized around personality, the Roman system 605 00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:13,560 Speaker 1: was organized around the principle of bureaucratic power, and the 606 00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:18,160 Speaker 1: Romans consistently would stumble into some Greek kingdom, get into 607 00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:21,120 Speaker 1: an argument. The Roman senate would then have a great 608 00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:23,920 Speaker 1: debate that says, we do not want to be in 609 00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:27,520 Speaker 1: a war. We are very peaceful people. We do not 610 00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:29,399 Speaker 1: want to go out and have to take over Greece. 611 00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:33,800 Speaker 1: We feel really badly about having to send an army. 612 00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:37,400 Speaker 1: We wish they hadn't forced us to do this, but 613 00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:39,799 Speaker 1: we're going to send an army. And this goes on 614 00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:44,399 Speaker 1: like eight or nine times. And I'm reading this as 615 00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:48,960 Speaker 1: we reluctantly enter replacing the British in the Persian Gulf. 616 00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:51,279 Speaker 1: Good friend of mine in the State department and said, 617 00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:57,520 Speaker 1: you realize that Kuwait means there'll be a eighty ninth 618 00:35:57,600 --> 00:36:03,319 Speaker 1: division brigade flag sitting in Kuwait for the next hundred years. 619 00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:06,839 Speaker 1: Because it's all that same model. It'll be interesting to 620 00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:09,120 Speaker 1: watch and see. I agree with you. I think we're 621 00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:12,680 Speaker 1: now in a period of being exhausted temporarily. But on 622 00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:16,080 Speaker 1: the other hand, the sheared dynamism, the number of new 623 00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:19,520 Speaker 1: people who come to America, the number of new ideas, 624 00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:23,160 Speaker 1: and the fact that we actually have a cultural social 625 00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:26,720 Speaker 1: structure too weak to block you. There are real limits 626 00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:30,120 Speaker 1: to rising in Germany or to rising in Japan. There 627 00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:33,800 Speaker 1: really aren't many limits to rising in America, which creates 628 00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:37,560 Speaker 1: a sort of random genius effect that no other society 629 00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:40,040 Speaker 1: I know of has. And it's not because we're clever. 630 00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:42,440 Speaker 1: It's because we can't figure out how to stop ourselves. 631 00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:45,760 Speaker 1: So I think it'll be an amazing couple of decades. 632 00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:48,200 Speaker 1: But I really want to thank you by want to 633 00:36:48,280 --> 00:36:52,160 Speaker 1: encourage everyone two things. One, they should sign up for 634 00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:56,400 Speaker 1: your newsletter, which I find very very helpful. Too, they 635 00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:58,880 Speaker 1: should get your new book. The End of the World 636 00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:02,920 Speaker 1: is just the beginning mapping the collapse of globalization. It 637 00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:06,800 Speaker 1: captures exactly what we're about to live through. And Peter. 638 00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:09,680 Speaker 1: I want to thank you for joining me today. It 639 00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:14,680 Speaker 1: has been my pleasure speaker. Thank you to my guests. 640 00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:17,520 Speaker 1: Peter Zihon. You can get a link to buy his 641 00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:20,200 Speaker 1: new book, The End of the World is just at 642 00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:24,000 Speaker 1: the beginning on our show page at newtsworld dot com. 643 00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:28,160 Speaker 1: News World is produced by Gingwish three sixty and iHeartMedia. 644 00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:33,359 Speaker 1: Our executive producer is Garnsey Slum. Our producer is Rebecca Howe, 645 00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:37,799 Speaker 1: and our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the 646 00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:42,200 Speaker 1: show was created by Steve Penley. Special thanks the team 647 00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:45,920 Speaker 1: at Gingwich three sixty. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I 648 00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:49,200 Speaker 1: hope you'll go to Apple Podcast and both rate us 649 00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:52,880 Speaker 1: with five stars and give us a review so others 650 00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:56,239 Speaker 1: can learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners of 651 00:37:56,320 --> 00:38:00,279 Speaker 1: news World can sign up for my three free free 652 00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:04,680 Speaker 1: columns at Gingrich three sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm 653 00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:06,880 Speaker 1: Newt Gangridge. This is Newtsworld.