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Speaker 2: Steven Englander with earn credit, the standard charter at Bank,
Speaker 2: definitive at City Group for years on cross rates, absolutely
Speaker 2: known globally for the relationships and currency show. I want
Speaker 2: to cut to the chase and go back to Yale. Okay,
Speaker 2: you had Bob Evanson is your faculty advisor at Yale.
Speaker 2: Did you ever go to the Yale Harvard tailgate games
Speaker 2: that were legendary with Evanson?
Speaker 3: No, but he did send me the Pesol Fundau in
Speaker 3: Brazil to look at their agricultural experiment stations and see
Speaker 3: what they were doing.
Speaker 2: His was granular data, which is the way Steve Englander rolls.
Speaker 2: What take the Yale granular study that Colls commissioned. Shill
Speaker 2: learn all that and bring it over to how you
Speaker 2: make a call of fifty basis points in September.
Speaker 3: I think the trick is to try and understand everything
Speaker 3: that's in the market and ask you why does the
Speaker 3: market think what it's thinking? What is the market logic?
Speaker 3: And then say do I have a right to disagree
Speaker 3: with it? Do I think that there's something I know
Speaker 3: that the market doesn't know? And how comfortable am I
Speaker 3: with it? Let's start on the dual mandate of inflation.
Speaker 2: Let's go back to Evanson, giant of Minnesota and teaching
Speaker 2: it Yale iconic and that's the American farmer. The images
Speaker 2: this weekend of farmers in Arkansas flat on their back,
Speaker 2: how pernicious, Stephen Englander. Is the inflation now in America?
Speaker 3: I think the perception is quite strong, and there is
Speaker 3: a justification. I'd say this that the if you look
Speaker 3: at some of the adjustments for technological progress, our computers
Speaker 3: are much better, but we don't use that much of
Speaker 3: their capacity. So you know, some of the softness that
Speaker 3: we sometimes see in inflation is sort of added on
Speaker 3: by the BLS. It's completely legitimate, but it's not what
Speaker 3: the price of coffee is, what the you know, farmers
Speaker 3: or inputs from market saft farmers, Stephen Englander, where there's
Speaker 3: the standard charter bank, we are commercial trees through the
Speaker 3: market opening and well into this nine o'clock hour.
Speaker 2: David Gerray in for Paul Sweeney.
Speaker 4: David, you mentioned that you're sort of looking at all
Speaker 4: of these market factors as you come up with that forecaster.
Speaker 4: What was it that led you to make this call?
Speaker 4: Was it the simple variable of just the jobs numbers
Speaker 4: that we got, or were there was there some other
Speaker 4: mechanism or variable that made you feel confident in that.
Speaker 3: Well, you also have to try and read the mind
Speaker 3: of the FED and the incentives in the market and
Speaker 3: so on, and they think, you know, yes, you know,
Speaker 3: I actually think it's the right thing to do. And
Speaker 3: one question I ask myself is say they had known
Speaker 3: the data for the last four months, non FORIGM pay
Speaker 3: rolls last four months has averaged twenty seven thousand, and
Speaker 3: because of the bias that you get from the birth
Speaker 3: death adjustment, we think even that's overstated. Would they have
Speaker 3: cut And you know the answer is yeah, entire mind
Speaker 3: that they would have cut. And so we think that
Speaker 3: they they're not going to commit themselves to making a
Speaker 3: series of cuts, but they're going to say, look, you know,
Speaker 3: the numbers are softer than we expected. We're reading the
Speaker 3: numbers and they justify cutting, but also a bit of
Speaker 3: catch up.
Speaker 4: We're in this moment where the integrity of government data
Speaker 4: is being cast into question more than it has been,
Speaker 4: certainly by personnel movements, but also as you listen to
Speaker 4: the president's economic advisor suggesting that they're not capturing the
Speaker 4: labor economy in a holistic sense, how does that complicate
Speaker 4: your job as a private sector economist who's looking at
Speaker 4: the economy. Does it raised doubts in your mind? How
Speaker 4: how does it sort of change the work that you're
Speaker 4: doing if that's coming about.
Speaker 3: Well, we actually spend a lot of time looking at
Speaker 3: the data and trying to understand if they're legitimate or not.
Speaker 3: Like last year, one of our big papers, and I
Speaker 3: think we were one of the first, was served integrating
Speaker 3: undocumented immigrants and kind of saying, there's a reason the
Speaker 3: payrolls are so strong because they're getting work permits and
Speaker 3: getting picked up by NFP. So I actually spend an
Speaker 3: inordinate amount of time worrying about the quality of data.
Speaker 3: And I say this that the riskiest thing you can
Speaker 3: do is believe people when they say you'res a gold
Speaker 3: standard because he's self criticism goes out the door.
Speaker 2: Stephen Englander with this here and a fed call of
Speaker 2: fifty basis points, I want to take a little bit
Speaker 2: of theory here. The Yale a Budget Lab at Yale
Speaker 2: has been absolutely brilliant in teaching us about this legislation
Speaker 2: and about tariffs as well. I personally saw terroriffs this
Speaker 2: weekend and cannot paint when I'm fifteen percent out of
Speaker 2: the blue. Steve Englander, I'm in the camp. David Kelly,
Speaker 2: I want to say it hutting them at JP Morgan
Speaker 2: David Kelly writing about the income effect as well. We're
Speaker 2: all focused on substituting. Lisa's going to go to Costco.
Speaker 2: She's not gonna buy coffee, She's gonna buy Sanca Blogny.
Speaker 2: To me right now, what's going on as a major
Speaker 2: income effect affected by purchasing power? This goes back to
Speaker 2: a guy named Hicks, Folks, a guy named Slutsky. But
Speaker 2: the answer is we're being a hit with a new
Speaker 2: purchasing power that's evaporating.
Speaker 3: I think that's correct, and you know a lot of
Speaker 3: people understand it. You know, in terms of oil prices, right,
Speaker 3: you know you were paying forty to fill up your tank.
Speaker 3: Now you pay eighty. It means one less trip with
Speaker 3: the kids to McDonald's in the week. With tariffs and
Speaker 3: import prices, it's more spread out and less dramatic, but
Speaker 3: it's the same kind of impact. All of a sudden,
Speaker 3: everything you see is a little bit more expensive, and
Speaker 3: you have to make decisions and prioritize your spending.
Speaker 2: Feel the dreams will fifty basis points ease our pain?
Speaker 3: I think yes, And let me be clear, because we
Speaker 3: think that they do fifty and then they pause because
Speaker 3: GDP numbers aren't bad. Productivity looks like it's actually pretty good.
Speaker 2: You sure, Scharmer said that in the Ft today and the.
Speaker 3: You know, you look at the labor numbers, as you know,
Speaker 3: they're really mediocre. Its sluggage softish. But you know, as
Speaker 3: you know, I was at Lehman's in two thousand and eight.
Speaker 3: This is not a two thousand and eight type of
Speaker 3: labor market. That's not a twenty April twenty twenty labor market.
Speaker 3: It's a mediocre, sluggish, poor labor market where you know
Speaker 3: you probably should get closer to neutral, but nothing is
Speaker 3: falling off a cliff.
Speaker 4: The Chairman has talked about the oddness of that and
Speaker 4: the challenge of having a market like you describe. How
Speaker 4: much closer are we to figuring out why it is
Speaker 4: that way and why he continues to be Is it's
Speaker 4: just the simple sense of ambiguity about policies and their effects,
Speaker 4: is it? As you hear from Scott Bessant or An Hasset,
Speaker 4: you know, things will take time to equilibrate or work
Speaker 4: themselves out. What do you make of the labor market
Speaker 4: the state of which it's in right now?
Speaker 3: Well, look, if I want to criticize the fad, I'd
Speaker 3: say that they spend ninety percent of their time worrying
Speaker 3: about the man shocks. And here we are talking about
Speaker 3: productivity shocks, talking about labor market shocks. And there's a
Speaker 3: lot of ambiguity in terms of how you interpret numbers
Speaker 3: when they come in because you don't know if they're moving,
Speaker 3: you know what shock is moving them. So I think
Speaker 3: that that's the big issue that leaves things uncertain, and
Speaker 3: you know, uncertain about how bad things are. So I
Speaker 3: think that you know in some ways that argues that
Speaker 3: you know, you kind of know the direction so you
Speaker 3: make a move, but you'd be very cautious. I mean,
Speaker 3: what if we're in nineteen ninety seven.
Speaker 4: Is stagflation a word that is bandied about in the
Speaker 4: standard charted offices? Is it something that you were thinking
Speaker 4: about or worried about at this moment.
Speaker 2: It's always a worry.
Speaker 3: But you know, with labor markets so soft, you know,
Speaker 3: and spending going to be soft, I don't think labor
Speaker 3: is going to be about to push wages up, you know.
Speaker 3: So I think that you know, he respect in sixties,
Speaker 3: he's so yale, irrespectful, irrespected of the productivity story. I
Speaker 3: think that the you know, uh yeah, Darter.
Speaker 2: With a brilliant essay this weekend and he goes back
Speaker 2: to nominal GDP, and I get it. It's a conundrum.
Speaker 2: Do we have terrible economic growth but still buying inflation?
Speaker 2: Stagflation is doctor Ger talks about here, Stephen Englander. Is
Speaker 2: the real risk here that we get this wrong and
Speaker 2: we have dampen growth and quiescent inflation where nominal GDP
Speaker 2: dips below five percent, ginormous number dips below Dare I
Speaker 2: say four percent or worse? Or is that in one
Speaker 2: of your probabilities.
Speaker 3: You know, I think that you know, we all talk
Speaker 3: about AI all day long, and I think that that's
Speaker 3: going to be the real decisive for how the economy
Speaker 3: breaks that if it turns out that we're, you know,
Speaker 3: partly because of AI or other factors, that productivity growth
Speaker 3: is strong, right, everything's going to be fun.
Speaker 2: But the FED doesn't have that luxury. We can talk
Speaker 2: about it, we can go yeah, yeah, bring in Simon
Speaker 2: Johnson up at MIT. Rogueoff was on the other day.
Speaker 2: It's a bunch of bow type stuff. The FED doesn't
Speaker 2: have that luxury. Do they to ponder AI and productivity?
Speaker 3: Well, a, they should, I know, the more time on.
Speaker 2: Stoomberg prescriptive of should. I like, Crewman was on once
Speaker 2: and I couldn't get him to say the dreaded s
Speaker 2: word should. Englander's doing it? What should got to do
Speaker 2: with it?
Speaker 3: But I think, you know, in practice, given the absence
Speaker 3: of knowledge, it just means that you you sort of
Speaker 3: go slowly in the direction that you think that data
Speaker 3: are telling you. I mean, there's no straw here with
Speaker 3: which to make bricks, and you know, you can critique
Speaker 3: the productivity data very easily as well. So I think
Speaker 3: that they sort of you know, you take a step,
Speaker 3: you see what happens. Right, take another step, see what happens.
Speaker 3: If something bad happens, you stop, or you step back
Speaker 3: a little bit. If it looks good, you keep going.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I want you to jump in here and finish
Speaker 2: out the interview. We're having so much funnier folks with
Speaker 2: the academics of doctor England or I really want to
Speaker 2: emphasize some of this stuff is incredible dynamics moving parts.
Speaker 2: David off of that is this dreaded word ambiguity, which
Speaker 2: is we really don't know where we are or what's
Speaker 2: going to happen.
Speaker 4: Continue will, I will ask you to indulge me and
Speaker 4: do a little work for us here as we look
Speaker 4: ahead to this week of data. So we have these revisions,
Speaker 4: I'm curious how you're thinking about them. But also we
Speaker 4: had President Cools beyond Friday saying he wants to see
Speaker 4: the inflation data this week that matters to him. We've
Speaker 4: got to look at the inflation side too, He says,
Speaker 4: how important is that to you? So how should be
Speaker 4: thinking or framing the day releases that we're going to
Speaker 4: get this week?
Speaker 3: Okay, I think the important thing about the benchmark revisions
Speaker 3: is we think they're going to be significant, maybe seven
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty to one million down and important things
Speaker 3: there is there's no reason to think that things have
Speaker 3: gotten better since the March of twenty twenty five. As
Speaker 3: far as inflation goes, I think the real issue. You know, yeah,
Speaker 3: so you know my shirt price went up because there's
Speaker 3: a tariff on shirts. I mean, you don't know how
Speaker 3: to engauge it. If it turns out that, you know,
Speaker 3: say services inflation is heating up and stuff that you
Speaker 3: know is not related to tariffs is heating up, then
Speaker 3: there's a problem.
Speaker 2: What happens to the animal spirit? You mentioned seven fifty
Speaker 2: to one million, Most people are below that, it's say
Speaker 2: four hundred and five. I mean, Steve Angler's out in
Speaker 2: a linear folks, with what we're going to see tomorrow.
Speaker 2: We'll have complete coverage of this. And Steven Angler, what
Speaker 2: does it mean for people's retirement plans? Slash the stock market?
Speaker 2: If we get Anglander rate cuts? Is that good or
Speaker 2: bad for equities?
Speaker 3: You know, a little bit of bad news is probably
Speaker 3: pretty good for equities because it calms the market down
Speaker 3: and it sort of says, look, if you get your
Speaker 3: company right, cost the capital isn't going to be an
Speaker 3: issue for you. I think if things are really falling apart,
Speaker 3: like you know, twenty twenty or two thousand and eight,
Speaker 3: then you know, bad news is really bad news. But
Speaker 3: in many circumstances, a little bit of bad news is
Speaker 3: actually good news for equities. And I'd say things that
Speaker 3: the equity. You know, you sort of say why your
Speaker 3: equity is so strong when when everybody thinks things are
Speaker 3: a mush. It sort of makes you look at the
Speaker 3: productivity element again, kind of saying, well, wages aren't going up,
Speaker 3: but it looks like GDP is fairly strong.
Speaker 2: What's left.
Speaker 3: It's not going into taxes, right, there's only profits.
Speaker 2: Bill from London emails in he's with a standard Charter
Speaker 2: bank and says, ask Steven what it means for the
Speaker 2: rest of the world. How about standards charter question this
Speaker 2: morning for Bill Winters, what does all this Englander talk
Speaker 2: mean for Singapore, for London and the rest of the
Speaker 2: standard charter world?
Speaker 3: In some ways it's actually okay. I mean there are
Speaker 3: two elements. One is that if you look at the
Speaker 3: AI game, if that's the game, you sort of say, okay,
Speaker 3: us seems to be on the game. China might be
Speaker 3: in the game. A bunch of other countries trying to
Speaker 3: get in Europe, you know.
Speaker 2: Right not there having some conferences.
Speaker 3: On the other hand, you know, the say US GDP
Speaker 3: or say the FED cuts by the fifty basis points.
Speaker 3: That's everybody else's interest rates go down by thirty to
Speaker 3: fifty basis points. And that's far more important to them
Speaker 3: than sort of saying, well, oh, you know if England
Speaker 3: there's right, you know they're forty your jobs that they're
Speaker 3: not going to buy a Singapore exports. The fact that
Speaker 3: they can get their cost of capital and the risk
Speaker 3: premium is down, they think is more important to the
Speaker 3: rest of us.
Speaker 2: Bill Winters know that Standard Charter Bank is up eighty
Speaker 2: nine point sixty seven percent in the past twelve months
Speaker 2: because of Steve Englander.
Speaker 3: Well, I think he can add like four or five
Speaker 3: decimal points. I'm not from your mouth to his ears, honored.
Speaker 2: We'd love to get a phone call with you tomorrow
Speaker 2: on your busy day, Steve Englander. When we get this data.
Speaker 2: Doctor Englander is with a Standard Charter Bank and they're
Speaker 2: just thrilled to give you extended conversations. There that's what
Speaker 2: Bloomberg likes to do for Global at Wall Street. Stay
Speaker 2: with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 2: The good news from Mark Geller is he's Aisconsin London.
Speaker 2: He probably avoided the hit of the summer here for
Speaker 2: Global Wall Street. Mister Geller's global head of Bank Debt
Speaker 2: capital Markets at Berkley's. And this is a chat for
Speaker 2: Global at Wall Street. The big song this summer, I know,
Speaker 2: are you in the Hamptons this summer? Unfortunately not more
Speaker 2: than Hamptons. Are these trench at lyrics because this is
Speaker 2: where we are in September. I'm looking for a man
Speaker 2: in finance Trust fun six' five blue, Eyes Finance trust
Speaker 2: fun six' five. Blue eyes that's the deep lyrics of.
Speaker 2: This song are we in an m and? A frenzy
Speaker 2: are we Going With? President trump? A deregulation just with
Speaker 2: the way the? Stars align is your day to day activity?
Speaker 2: Right now nuts.
Speaker 5: It certainly picked up over the course of, this YEAR
Speaker 5: and i think the first quarter was particularly busy when
Speaker 5: we think about the post election momentum that we had at. That,
Speaker 5: time obviously as we've drifted through, the air there have
Speaker 5: been a few, risk events not least obviously the tariff
Speaker 5: discussions that we all had during the Course. Of april
Speaker 5: there's been a lot of geopolitical risk which have brought
Speaker 5: some headlines, as well whether it's On the, European Side, Middle, East.
Speaker 5: India PAKISTAN so i think through the course of the
Speaker 5: year there have been a few elements where issuers AND
Speaker 5: also M and a prospective participants have had to think
Speaker 5: very very carefully about. The year, but overall the risk
Speaker 5: appetite that we've witnessed has been very. Very STRONG so
Speaker 5: i think FROM an M and a point, of view
Speaker 5: we are certainly very constructive as we think about the
Speaker 5: progress over the.
Speaker 2: Coming months are the clients coming to the Banks like
Speaker 2: barclays or are you going out across the Hinterlands of
Speaker 2: america Of continental europe and saying now is? The time
Speaker 2: which Dynamic.
Speaker 3: Is it's a little bit.
Speaker 6: Of both to.
Speaker 5: Be honest if you take a step back and you
Speaker 5: look at the financing conditions that we've had at, the
Speaker 5: moment the strength of the equity markets obviously many measures
Speaker 5: across the globe at all. Time highs that's been very
Speaker 5: favorable in terms of using that currency for opportunities ON
Speaker 5: the M and. A SIDE and i think if you
Speaker 5: look in terms of the cost of capital, right now
Speaker 5: we've had rates. Relatively HIGH but i think as we've
Speaker 5: been discussing since the job Numbers, on friday and we've
Speaker 5: seen a reaction in terms, of rates the prospect of
Speaker 5: seeing rate cuts over the coming months should support some
Speaker 5: of that activity, as well in the same way that
Speaker 5: we had three or four. Years AGO so i think
Speaker 5: it's looking very very strong as we prospectively look ahead
Speaker 5: over the next three to.
Speaker 4: Six months you've enumerated a lot of the risks with
Speaker 4: which you've had. To deal how much of, those have
Speaker 4: if not, resolved themselves got to a place where they're
Speaker 4: more satisfactory to those who are looking TO pursue M.
Speaker 4: And A so i guess is there more of a
Speaker 4: kind of comprehension or sense of the, regulatory landscape? For,
Speaker 4: instance now is there a feeling that things have calmed
Speaker 4: down in effect more than they were a few.
Speaker 5: Months, back yes if you look at the, regulatory LANDSCAPE
Speaker 5: and i think certainly coming out of the global financial
Speaker 5: crisis for banks over the last, fifteen years it's been
Speaker 5: about building up capital thinking about where the rest. May
Speaker 5: be but if you look at the global bank space,
Speaker 5: right now capital strength is very, very high liquidity is,
Speaker 5: extremely strong vigilance around asset quality. Very HIGH so i
Speaker 5: think you could argue that the banks are in the
Speaker 5: best position been for twenty twenty.
Speaker 6: Five years so that's very.
Speaker 5: Very strong the opportunity to lend and to support some
Speaker 5: of the m and a activity that we're likely to
Speaker 5: witness and have seen over the course of. THIS year
Speaker 5: i think as you consider some of those, risk events whether,
Speaker 5: it's taris, geopolitical risk, or otherwise certainly at those moments
Speaker 5: there's a little bit of, a pause but when you
Speaker 5: look at the speed with which the markets recovered over,
Speaker 5: THAT period i think it's.
Speaker 6: Very, conducive indeed how.
Speaker 4: About the appetite for cross, border transactions so or at
Speaker 4: a moment here where there is a lot of ambiguity
Speaker 4: about tariffs and, TRADE policy i think a lot of
Speaker 4: business executives are kind of wondering what the future looks
Speaker 4: like in terms of them putting a footprint or a
Speaker 4: plant here IN.
Speaker 6: The us is.
Speaker 2: That dampening sentiment?
Speaker 4: At all just the kind of confusion, OR again i
Speaker 4: guess the sense of not knowing the way that this
Speaker 4: is all likely to.
Speaker 5: Play out it's certainly an element in terms of. The,
Speaker 5: debate ABSOLUTELY and i think that's something that we have
Speaker 5: to look at over the next. Six MONTHS but i
Speaker 5: think the confidence around where asset valuations are, right now
Speaker 5: it's a great opportunity to think about what your business
Speaker 5: needs and could achieve over the next.
Speaker 6: Few years it remains a very very.
Speaker 5: GOOD opportunity i want you to define strategic.
Speaker 2: FOR banks i don't know if you've, seen it but
Speaker 2: a bank merger. Just warning maybe you can't come Out
Speaker 2: because barclays, is INVOLVED but Pnc of pittsburgh is buying
Speaker 2: Into the denver retail Market With. First, bank okay one
Speaker 2: small four billion. Dollar transaction to find the word strategic
Speaker 2: and conversations, right now not finance stuff like six or
Speaker 2: five guys with, trust funds but the strategic mandate that's.
Speaker 5: Out there coming back to my comments around where the
Speaker 5: banks are globally right now in terms, of, capital liquidity
Speaker 5: the confidence, looking forward especially outside OF the us where
Speaker 5: there have been issues in. The past over the last, ten,
Speaker 5: years yeah most of that seems to, have gone and
Speaker 5: so a LOT of ceo CFOs the boards can look
Speaker 5: forward with confidence and think about what where they want
Speaker 5: to be over the next five to, ten years what
Speaker 5: footprint might be missing from. Their BUSINESSES and i think
Speaker 5: for so many banks looking through the rear view mirror
Speaker 5: having to manage, your business whether it's because you're building
Speaker 5: up the strength that you didn't have at, one stage
Speaker 5: or strategically thinking about what, you need or managing conduct
Speaker 5: issues that it. MAY be i think a lot of
Speaker 5: that is out out of the. Way now so the
Speaker 5: opportunity to look forward with confidence is.
Speaker 2: Absolutely There, mark geller where There's, a barclays we continue
Speaker 2: here global ahead of bank debt capital over. THE weekend
Speaker 2: i know it's completely inappropriate for you to come in
Speaker 2: and this individual Bank To, Hong kong Shanghai And. Banking
Speaker 2: corporation the Headline from bloomberg HSBC's biggest shake up in
Speaker 2: decade raisest STAKES. For ceo when people are, shaking up
Speaker 2: are you seeing tweaking at the margin across the entire
Speaker 2: or are they saying we're going to stay in, This
Speaker 2: business we're going to get out of. That business so.
Speaker 5: IT depends i won't comment on, individual names, of course,
Speaker 5: but STRATEGICALLY as, i mentioned it's very important to think
Speaker 5: about where your business will go looking ahead over the
Speaker 5: next five to. TEN years, i think, in particular returns
Speaker 5: for shareholders are absolutely critical. As well think about those
Speaker 5: returns and the capital that you need to keep. Against
Speaker 5: them where is it that you've got the best risk
Speaker 5: adjusted return for your business and where do you want to?
Speaker 5: Take IT so i think looking at some of those
Speaker 5: strategic changes that we've had across the banking, landscape globally
Speaker 5: it's within.
Speaker 6: THAT lens i would describe It.
Speaker 2: As mark thank you. So Much mark keller with us
Speaker 2: Visiting From broccolay's Don't you good to have? You here
Speaker 2: stay With us More From bloomberg surveillance coming up. After this.
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Speaker 2: On YouTube he anriata trays with Us. In Washington david
Speaker 2: girl is going to drive. This conversation i'm going to
Speaker 2: get one question, In Here henrietta Treys With vada partners
Speaker 2: Before mister girl. Holds, court henrietta everybody's electric bill is Up.
Speaker 7: To.
Speaker 2: Congress people are they aware of the inflation out there
Speaker 2: or are? They?
Speaker 7: REMOVED no i think they're.
Speaker 8: Acutely aware And the american public is vary attude to.
Speaker 8: Energy prices as we, all know this is just, After
Speaker 8: gas so it's absolutely going to be a topic of conversation.
Speaker 8: FLOOR speeches I think democrats are tweeting about. It constantly
Speaker 8: republicans are trying to talk about how there's a BOOM
Speaker 8: and ai and that's what's going.
Speaker 7: To generate a lot of.
Speaker 8: Economic growth but the reality is that electricity prices are through.
Speaker 7: The roof so anybody made, that trade it's been doing.
Speaker 7: Really well Henry.
Speaker 4: And TOM and i were talking about we've got twenty
Speaker 4: two days till this, potential SHUTDOWN and i gather there
Speaker 4: are two routes That the congress could. TAKE here i
Speaker 4: know The Appropriators susan Collins And. Tom cole they're interested
Speaker 4: in kind of a short term. Spending bill there's an
Speaker 4: appetite among, some MEMBERS and i think From the president
Speaker 4: himself for a longer term bill that would take us to.
Speaker 4: Next year what's your sense of the, trajectory here the
Speaker 4: way this is going to, Play, out yes over the
Speaker 4: next couple of, weeks here bearing in mind we've got
Speaker 4: a recess baked in there, as well but also beyond
Speaker 4: that sort of what we're kind of spending bill we're likely,
Speaker 4: to get if in fact.
Speaker 8: We, get one, you know it's going to take even
Speaker 8: more money this cycle to keep the. Government open and
Speaker 8: that's Something that republicans generally don't want to. Talk about
Speaker 8: After especially doge And the president's.
Speaker 7: Efforts to cut the fat on.
Speaker 8: Federal spending the reality Is the president has requested more
Speaker 8: money For the Department of defense than. Ever before we're
Speaker 8: going to be spending about two trillion dollars just to
Speaker 8: keep the. Lights on so there is a reaction Function
Speaker 8: in congress where instead of passing a big two trillion
Speaker 8: dollar package just to keep the, lights on they end
Speaker 8: up splicing it into into. Little pieces and so that's
Speaker 8: probably what we're going to get going into the last
Speaker 8: couple months of. This year you'll get a short term
Speaker 8: STOCK gap cr that lasts as few as like three
Speaker 8: weeks sometimes, they do or Into, mid december Just. Before
Speaker 8: christmas and the benefit of that For The minority party
Speaker 8: is to basically chop up.
Speaker 7: The legislative momentum that the majority party.
Speaker 8: Might get so you, see this when either side is
Speaker 8: in you get a short TERM stopgap cr that pushes
Speaker 8: you Into A veteran's day And, then christmas and you
Speaker 8: just do that over and. Over again and you could
Speaker 8: tell that that's the strategy because the far right now
Speaker 8: is asking for a FULL, year cr which is historically anathema.
Speaker 4: To THEM henrietta i Read The ezra kline essay In
Speaker 4: The New york times over. The weekend he's done a
Speaker 4: video audio component of that, as well but he talks
Speaker 4: a lot about the Bargain That chuck schumer made Back
Speaker 4: in march he convinced members of his caucus to go
Speaker 4: along with the last. Spending Bill, ezra kline a long
Speaker 4: time of progressive writer, opinion columnist saying that he supported
Speaker 4: that at. The time he understood Why the minority leader
Speaker 4: was doing that at, the time but he said this time,
Speaker 4: is DIFFERENT and i wonder if you agree with. That
Speaker 4: assessment how much of a fisher you See, within democrats
Speaker 4: and how that's kind of compounding the risk or the
Speaker 4: odds that were likely to see a shutdown this, time
Speaker 4: around That that democrats simply didn't get enough out of
Speaker 4: going along with that spending bill.
Speaker 6: Last.
Speaker 7: TIME yeah I think klein's argument is.
Speaker 8: Really interesting the ONE thing i agree with Is that
Speaker 8: democrats need to get their. ACT together, i mean they
Speaker 8: don't have a comprehensive message or, A strategy, AND frankly
Speaker 8: i don't think shutting it down just To steyvey trump's
Speaker 8: forward march is necessarily a. Cohesive argument you're going to
Speaker 8: have to put a lot more meat on. The bones,
Speaker 8: i'm biased OBVIOUSLY because i cover, macroeconomic policy but talk
Speaker 8: about fiscal dominance and trying to stress Us the fed
Speaker 8: into cutting. Interest rates talk about how you're about to
Speaker 8: take Over The supreme court and force the ruling that
Speaker 8: allows the president to Tax the. American people that's literally
Speaker 8: what we Fought the. British OVER so i think there
Speaker 8: are really clear arguments and clients saying shut it down
Speaker 8: and begin you, About.
Speaker 2: That andrea and one quick, question Here and i'm sure
Speaker 2: we'll talk about it as we've staggered to the election over.
Speaker 2: A beverage, THIS weekend i was pontificating About the virginia.
Speaker 2: Governor Race, earl Sears the Republican Against, abbie Spanberger the democrat.
Speaker 2: Out there How's the democrat doing there Is As abigail
Speaker 2: spanberger A new Democrat Is david gera Talks, ABOUT.
Speaker 8: Yeah I think virginia is a perfect example of where
Speaker 8: the federal spending cuts. Come in whether you get an,
Speaker 8: engage population whether Or not democrats, turn out that's what
Speaker 8: they need. To drive so as long as you're having,
Speaker 8: That conversation democrats should just by being in the minority
Speaker 8: when one party, has control they should pick Up the
Speaker 8: house and make a real dent in some Of the
Speaker 8: senate seats Being Up north carolina and some of, the
Speaker 8: others make a real run at It In joony. Earn's seats,
Speaker 8: you know there's a lot, to do especially in and
Speaker 8: out year at an interim.
Speaker 2: Election, cycle henrietta thank you so much For The, Monday
Speaker 2: Brief HENRIETTA treys theta partners stay. With us More From
Speaker 2: bloomberg surveillance coming up. After this.
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Speaker 2: the history being Made. In France mister carroll At Our Paris,
Speaker 2: NEWS bureau i THINK it's i take, Great, issues stephen and, full,
Speaker 2: DISCLOSURE folks i have Family. In paris it's All about Paris.
Speaker 2: For americans marseille is sixteen percent the Size. Of paris
Speaker 2: paris is thirty percent three zero Of the. French. Economy
Speaker 2: folks It's like La In new york combined. In, impact
Speaker 2: stephen how does this political crisis Play, in Marseille, in Leon.
Speaker 9: In, bordeaux, well look you're mentioning Places in france where
Speaker 9: some of the more writing parties have. Greater strongholds so
Speaker 9: many of the people who voted in those particular cities
Speaker 9: might also be wondering about why they don't see themselves
Speaker 9: represented more accurately in the government of. The day we're
Speaker 9: looking at a government spit in or a parliament rather.
Speaker 9: Spit in about three the Far Right nata rally party
Speaker 9: is the largest single party in parliam although the Way
Speaker 9: that french, politicans worked as no other party has wanted
Speaker 9: to go into business with them to form. A government
Speaker 9: they wouldn't be able to on the current parliamentary, maps
Speaker 9: anyway but essentially within those three blocks that nobody has
Speaker 9: enough of a majority, to govern which is why we're
Speaker 9: heading towards our seventh prime minister since twenty Two Since
Speaker 9: emmanuel macron. Became president stephen, Quickly here i'm just curious
Speaker 9: what the flavor of this speech is going. To be
Speaker 9: as we talked about a little, While Back michel barney
Speaker 9: gave one of these speeches about little less than it
Speaker 9: than a.
Speaker 2: Year ago what are we expecting to? Hear you what
Speaker 2: you'd be watching for in.
Speaker 6: That speech.
Speaker 9: His message has been really, consistent throughout not only since
Speaker 9: He Became, prime minister or when he announced the budget
Speaker 9: Outlines in july or two, weeks ago when he called this,
Speaker 9: governance voter even if you go back as far as
Speaker 9: the two thousand and seven presidential campaign when he was
Speaker 9: a candidate. As well it's about Bringing the french deficit
Speaker 9: and debt. Under control he's repeated over and, over again
Speaker 9: this figure Of the french debt going up by FIVE
Speaker 9: thousand us. Every second it's actually a really interesting example
Speaker 9: of how you try to communicate, a massive largely incomprehensible
Speaker 9: problem with debt to the general public to try to
Speaker 9: win support. For them but essentially he's failed in, that
Speaker 9: mission despite being very consistent over the years of his
Speaker 9: Position that france needs to bring its public spending, under
Speaker 9: control needs to bring down its debt levels and bring
Speaker 9: the cost of borrowing, under control because it's set to
Speaker 9: take up an even larger part of the front budget debates.
Speaker 2: To come i'm looking At from sobayrou now on.
Speaker 9: His feet it's launching this debate which will determine his future.
Speaker 2: Three Pm in Paris Or stephen kerrer will go into
Speaker 2: the evening there to give you coverage Of the.
Speaker 1: French government this Is The bloomberg, surveillance podcast Available, On,
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