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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: With a look at how markets are digesting the news

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Speaker 2: we got out of Washington yesterday. Thank you so much.

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Speaker 2: That more than seven percent of cline on GM right

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Speaker 2: now an American auto manufacturer, which of course is something

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Speaker 2: that the President says he wants to see thrive, is

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Speaker 2: American auto manufacturing. That in part is the reasoning why

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Speaker 2: he made the announcement he did yesterday when something he

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Speaker 2: long has promised, tariffs on auto imports, were formalized.

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Speaker 3: This is the beginning of Liberation Day in America. We're

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Speaker 3: going to charge countries for doing business in our country

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Speaker 3: and taking our jobs. Take it out wealth. What we're

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Speaker 3: going to be doing is a twenty five percent tariff

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Speaker 3: on all cars that are not made in the United States.

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Speaker 4: Let's talk a little bit more about what this means

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Speaker 4: with Bloomberg's Detroit Bureau chief David Welch. David it's great

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Speaker 4: to have you with us today on Bloomberg TV and radio.

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Speaker 4: The way this works here, we're not just talking about

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Speaker 4: foreign automakers. These are in many cases cars made by

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Speaker 4: US automakers that are assembled in other places. We saw

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Speaker 4: data from Ward's Automotive and Barclay showing for FOD that's

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Speaker 4: seventy eight percent made in the US. STILLANT is fifty seven,

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Speaker 4: GM fifty two, so we would presumably be terifing the

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Speaker 4: percentage of the vehicle that's assembled somewhere else.

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Speaker 5: Is that right?

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Speaker 6: That's right, and that's why GM is one of the

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Speaker 6: hardest hit by this as it's proposed, as it's going

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Speaker 6: to be levied right now. GM makes a lot of

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Speaker 6: vehicles here, but they also make very very important models

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Speaker 6: like Chevalry Silverado GMCC are pickup trucks in Canada and Mexico.

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Speaker 6: Their cheapest vehicle, their entry Oval Chevy Tracks SUV made

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Speaker 6: in Korea that would be hit with a twenty five

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Speaker 6: percent tariff on the Mexican and Canadian vehicles. Those are

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Speaker 6: a US MCA compliant. That's the trade deal between Canada,

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Speaker 6: Mexico and the United States. They will be they will

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Speaker 6: have tariffs levied on the non US content of those trucks.

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Speaker 6: So let's just say a Silverado pickup was I'm just

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Speaker 6: making this up, but if it was half US made parts,

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Speaker 6: the other half of the value of that truck would

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Speaker 6: be hit with the terraffs and that can still be

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Speaker 6: a substantial amount of money that's added to the cost

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Speaker 6: of this vehicle when it comes across the border. And

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Speaker 6: then whether consumers paid or GM eats it or somewhere

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Speaker 6: in the middle remains to be seen. But it's a

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Speaker 6: situation where all the automakers are kind of scramming to

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Speaker 6: figure out how they're going to manage this Toyota. Half

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Speaker 6: of the vehicles they sell in the US are imported,

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Speaker 6: some from Canada, but a lot from Japan. They're going

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Speaker 6: to really have to struggle to kind of to deal

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Speaker 6: with this if it's going to be long term.

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Speaker 2: Well, David, I want to expand more on what you

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Speaker 2: were just saying about the question of who ultimately eats

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Speaker 2: these higher costs. How confident are automakers right now in

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Speaker 2: their pricing power, their ability to pass on higher input

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Speaker 2: costs when we have signs of a softening consumer ata,

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Speaker 2: softening consumer sentiment and still relatively high interest rates.

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Speaker 6: You do, and you also have relatively high vehicle costs. Already,

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Speaker 6: we had record new car prices about two years ago.

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Speaker 6: They've come down a bit, but these are still historically

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Speaker 6: expensive new vehicles out there. The average price of new

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Speaker 6: vehicles is not far from fifty thousand dollars. You know,

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Speaker 6: ten years ago it was in the thirties, So you know,

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Speaker 6: they're expensive vehicles out there with high interest rates that

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Speaker 6: means high monthly payments. Consumers have been pushing back. You

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Speaker 6: did start to see some activity with rebates and other deals,

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Speaker 6: and you're seeing some of that now, but still big

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Speaker 6: price tags in the showroom, so there's not a lot

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Speaker 6: of places to bury these tariff costs. You will see

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Speaker 6: some negotiating between car companies and their suppliers, maybe getting

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Speaker 6: the suppliers to try to eat some of this cost,

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Speaker 6: but their margins aren't very good, so you know, end

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Speaker 6: of the day, the car companies themselves are either going

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Speaker 6: to have to eat this or then we decide not

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Speaker 6: to make certain vehicles to sell in the United States

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Speaker 6: if it's that bad, and if the tariffs last a

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Speaker 6: long time. You know, I don't want to say anyone's

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Speaker 6: doing that yet, But the teriffs would have to be

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Speaker 6: a long term thing before that happened. But it's you know,

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Speaker 6: these are sort of the options of decisions that car

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Speaker 6: companies would have to look at.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you're in a world where Honda, Subaru, and Nissan

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Speaker 4: are assembling a greater share of their vehicles in the

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Speaker 4: US than General Motors itself. So this then becomes a question.

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Speaker 4: If I'm hearing you write about how long these tariffs

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Speaker 4: stay in place, how long can an automaker wait around

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Speaker 4: to find out?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, look, that's that's a big question. I think they

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Speaker 6: will eat these tariffs for months, you know, maybe a

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Speaker 6: year or longer. It's just you know it. It also

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Speaker 6: depends on the conversations they're having with the Trump administration,

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Speaker 6: and they're engaged on a daily basis trying to figure

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Speaker 6: out where this is going. And the big question is, Okay, if, if,

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Speaker 6: if Trump's first term is any guide, do we just

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Speaker 6: need to see the other countries he's negotiating with Budge

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Speaker 6: on some of the tariffs they have on the US.

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Speaker 6: And at the same time, General Motors, Stalantis, Toyota say

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Speaker 6: they're going to move a vehicle that's made overseas or

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Speaker 6: in Mexico to a factory in the US, or do

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Speaker 6: they open a new plant in the US. Do they

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Speaker 6: make a concession in that way where they're gonna invest

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Speaker 6: more here. We've seen Trump already, you know, talking up

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Speaker 6: the fact that Apple is going to invest more in

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Speaker 6: the United States. He talked up a twenty one billion

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Speaker 6: dollar Hundaie investment that they announced a couple of days ago.

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Speaker 6: He likes to see these things, he likes to talk

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Speaker 6: about them. So the concessions maybe on two fronts. The

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Speaker 6: country's you know, Mexico, Canada, the e you who is

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Speaker 6: negotiating with, and then the companies here who he wants

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Speaker 6: to see bring jobs and investment back. That may be

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Speaker 6: the way that gets companies out of a long term

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Speaker 6: tariff structure that they find very difficult to operate in.

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Speaker 2: All right, David Welch, thank you so much, Bloomberg's Detroit

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Speaker 2: bureau chief, helping us walk through the impact these tariffs

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Speaker 2: could have on auto companies. But by extension, there also

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Speaker 2: is a question as to how exactly these levies may

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Speaker 2: help or hurt auto workers. And it was the impact

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Speaker 2: on auto workers that the White House Press Secretary Caroline

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Speaker 2: Levitt was touting from the White House earlier today.

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Speaker 7: I would just like to emphasize these auto tariffs yesterday

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Speaker 7: are a big deal for auto workers in the industry.

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Speaker 7: And you saw the United Auto Workers' Union Sean Fain,

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Speaker 7: who wasn't the greatest fan of the president on the

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Speaker 7: campaign trail, came out this morning and applauded the President

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Speaker 7: for this move, saying it's a great thing for auto

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Speaker 7: workers who have been sold out by unfair trade practices.

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Speaker 2: Let's see if Ared Bernstein agrees. Former director of the

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Speaker 2: White House Council of Economic Advisors during the Biden administration,

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Speaker 2: back with us on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV

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Speaker 2: and Radio. Jared, good to see you, as always. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: during your tenure at the White House, we talked with

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Speaker 2: you frequently about issues surrounding labor, including the UAW strike

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Speaker 2: when it was ongoing. Is there an argument to be

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Speaker 2: made here that those workers stand to benefit from the

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Speaker 2: levies that were just announced.

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Speaker 8: I don't think so, And I've heard miss Levitt argue

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Speaker 8: that tariffs actually will make consumer goods cheaper, not more expensive,

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Speaker 8: So I think some of this analysis is kind of

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Speaker 8: upside down. In fact, It's widely agreed upon that tariffs

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Speaker 8: are an import tax and that at least some share,

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Speaker 8: and I think most research suggests the lion's share is

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Speaker 8: passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

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Speaker 8: We have autoanalysts out this morning suggesting that these new

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Speaker 8: tariffs on autos, these sweeping tariffs on all auto imports

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Speaker 8: and auto parts, will raise the price the average price

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Speaker 8: of a car between five and ten thousand dollars. That's

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Speaker 8: real money for American consumers. And in that regard, I

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Speaker 8: think liberation Day is when American consumers are liberated from

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Speaker 8: paying lower costs on imports, and I'm not sure they're

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Speaker 8: going to like that.

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Speaker 4: It's good to see Jared welcome back. If this is

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Speaker 4: liberation Day, as the President is calling it, is he

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Speaker 4: suggesting that at some point this tariff battle will result

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Speaker 4: in no tariffs. Is zeroing out of trade relationships? Is

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Speaker 4: that not an admirable goal.

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Speaker 8: I do think that would be an admirable goal, but

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Speaker 8: I'm not sure why you have to start a trade

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Speaker 8: war to get there. That's kind of like it's saying

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Speaker 8: an admirable goal is to make myself feel better by

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Speaker 8: not banging my head against the wall. That's true, but

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Speaker 8: I probably a good idea not to start that in

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Speaker 8: the first place. Look, all of this comes down to

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Speaker 8: an idea that Dean Baker and I explored in an

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Speaker 8: op ed in the Wall Street Journal today, where you

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Speaker 8: ask yourself, even the administration, by the way, contrary to

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Speaker 8: the spokesperson you played, even the administration says pain first,

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Speaker 8: gain later. So really, I think their best argument is

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Speaker 8: that these tariffs will eventually reindustrialize America. And I think

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Speaker 8: that argument is just patently wrong. There's no evidence to

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Speaker 8: support it. Lots of evidence pushing the other way. Happy

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Speaker 8: to take anybody through that argument, but I don't see

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Speaker 8: pain first, gain later. I see pain first.

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Speaker 6: Pain later.

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Speaker 2: Well, so let's get into that a little bit more,

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Speaker 2: because in that OpEd you mentioned in the Journal today,

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Speaker 2: you say that even if US manufactured exports increased enough

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Speaker 2: to close the trade deficit, which you say is an

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Speaker 2: extremely unlikely event, and if employment grew proportionally, our manufacturing

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Speaker 2: workforce share would climb only from eight percent to nine percent,

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Speaker 2: which obviously is not super dramatic. Jared, if this is

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Speaker 2: not the means through which to have that manufacturing economy revival,

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Speaker 2: what actually can juice it.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, really important question, Kaylee. So first of all, that

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Speaker 8: calculation is based on zeroing out the trade deficit that

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Speaker 8: hasn't happened since the mid nineteen seventies. We can talk

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Speaker 8: about whether that's something that policy should try to do.

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Speaker 8: I happen to believe that there are times when the

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Speaker 8: trade deficit is a clear drag on growth and particularly

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Speaker 8: on some of our manufacturing communities. So some of this

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Speaker 8: impetus or motivation makes sense, which takes us to the

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Speaker 8: second part of your question. We had even more success

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Speaker 8: than I expected when it came to what was called

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Speaker 8: our industrial policy in the Biden administration. We saw a

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Speaker 8: doubling of factory construction on US soil based much more

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Speaker 8: on carrots than stix tariffs, just these kind of broad

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Speaker 8: based tarffs. I actually think targeted tariffs can can have

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Speaker 8: a role, But these broad based tariffs have never been

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Speaker 8: shown to lower the trade deficit. They've never been shown

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Speaker 8: even if you do lower the trade deficit, for that

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Speaker 8: to translate into more factory jobs. We had a lot

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Speaker 8: more success tapping an untapped demand or elasticity for people

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Speaker 8: who wanted to build factories in this country. In the

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Speaker 8: area of clean energy, electric vehicles, battery production. And when

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Speaker 8: I say people investors, I don't just mean American investors,

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Speaker 8: I mean foreign investors. We had a surge in foreign

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Speaker 8: direct investment. Now many of those factories are underway, those

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Speaker 8: shovels are in the ground, and that's still ongoing. But

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Speaker 8: that has proven already to be a lot more successful

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Speaker 8: than the tariff's strategy.

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Speaker 4: People spent the four years many economists spent the four

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Speaker 4: years of your time in the White House with Joe

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Speaker 4: Biden Jared predicting a recession and getting back to the

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Speaker 4: no pain, no gain situation. Here in your op ed,

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Speaker 4: you write, they failed to do so, continue to double

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Speaker 4: down on their unpopular agenda. We may find ourselves testing

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Speaker 4: Howard Lutnix assert that a recession will be worth it.

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Speaker 5: So when does the recession begin?

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Speaker 8: Well, this is Howard Lutnick, the Commerce Secretary, saying, Yeah,

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Speaker 8: the policies that we're implementing, you know, possibly could be recessionary,

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Speaker 8: but it will be worth it because of the gains

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Speaker 8: on the other side. And as I explained earlier, and

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Speaker 8: as we go through in some detail in the piece,

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Speaker 8: that's just you know, wrong argument with no historical backing,

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Speaker 8: no theoretical backing, every reason to believe pain now, pain

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Speaker 8: later on that as far as a recession is concerned,

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Speaker 8: one thing going for the Trump team right now is

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Speaker 8: that they inherited a strong economy, and at least as

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Speaker 8: far as the hard data are concerned, it's still a

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Speaker 8: very solid economy. I mean, I was looking at the

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Speaker 8: UI claims this morning and they're not even flashing yellow.

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Speaker 8: And I think if you're not seeing layoffs in the

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Speaker 8: labor market, then you're not really looking at recessionary conditions now.

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Speaker 8: I also noticed that Goldman Sachs marked down their first

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Speaker 8: quarter GDP estimate this year, so the quarter that ends

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Speaker 8: at the end of this month to one percent. Now

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Speaker 8: that's down from something like, you know, well north of

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Speaker 8: two for a Q four and so that kind of

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Speaker 8: a deceleration that really could be problematic in terms of

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Speaker 8: the labor market. But at least as far as the

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Speaker 8: hard data is concerned, right now, the economy is still solid.

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Speaker 2: Well, so when we consider the domestic economy and how

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Speaker 2: it will compare internationally, obviously the impact of tariffs, Jared

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Speaker 2: will not just be felt in the United States, but

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Speaker 2: in comparison to countries that will have to be grappling

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Speaker 2: with this, like Europe, for example, which in many places

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Speaker 2: seems to be abandoning austerity entirety getting ready to spend

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Speaker 2: on defense and stimulate. The US currently is trying to

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Speaker 2: really rein in federal spending. No such stimulus appears to

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Speaker 2: be on the horizon. How could that ultimately stack or

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Speaker 2: make the US impact be felt more acutely than even

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Speaker 2: the impact on other countries that the President is currently

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Speaker 2: trying to influence.

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Speaker 8: First of all, the trade isolation the American fortress will

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Speaker 8: go it alone, I think is really antithetical to growth

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Speaker 8: in the near ternament in the long term. And I

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Speaker 8: think if the President and his team we're talking about

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Speaker 8: a regional trade block, maybe North America, I think that

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Speaker 8: maybe we could have a better conversation. But clearly their

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Speaker 8: actions and threats against Mexico and Canada suggest they're not

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Speaker 8: even thinking in terms of regional trade blocks. And I

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Speaker 8: think this is damaging for growth. And again, this is

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Speaker 8: coming from a person who is well aware of the

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Speaker 8: costs of persistent trade deficits and unfair trade on communities

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Speaker 8: that have been left behind In terms of fiscal pressure,

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Speaker 8: I think we probably will see some fiscal worsening of

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Speaker 8: the outlook from the tax cuts. And I suppose you

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Speaker 8: could look at that and say, well, maybe there'll be

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Speaker 8: some positive fiscal impulse there, some more spending. That's really

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Speaker 8: a function of whether they're just extending existing tax cuts,

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Speaker 8: which comes with no new fiscal impulse, that's just status

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Speaker 8: quo in terms of it which macroeconomic impacts, or whether

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Speaker 8: they're adding new tax cuts. Now, if they add new

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Speaker 8: tax cuts, which they have talked about, that could induce

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Speaker 8: the economy a bit more, but of course it worsens

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Speaker 8: the fiscal outlook even more. And I don't know how

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Speaker 8: markets are going to love that so much.

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Speaker 4: He is former chair of the White House Council of

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Speaker 4: Economic Advisors.

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Speaker 5: Now he's a free man.

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Speaker 4: Jared Bernstein, it's great to see you back, Jared on

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Speaker 4: Bloomberg TV and Radio alongside Kaylee Lines, I'm Joe Matthew

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Speaker 4: will assemble our political panel coming up next on Balance

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Speaker 4: of Power.

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Speaker 5: Here on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

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Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You

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Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

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Speaker 1: New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven.

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Speaker 4: Thirty thousands of people showed up to protests last evening

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Speaker 4: in Summerville, Mass. If you're with us on ninety in Boston,

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Speaker 4: this is a big local story here and it's frankly

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Speaker 4: become a big national story. If you're with us on YouTube,

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Speaker 4: get a load of this. This is the scene right

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Speaker 4: now on a street in Somerville, mass where a Toft's

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Speaker 4: University student, remisa Os Turk of Turkey, was approached by

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Speaker 4: playing clothes masked police officers and promptly arrested. If I

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Speaker 4: could play the audio, you'd hear her screaming at this point.

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Speaker 4: They'd take her backpack off, put it on the ground,

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Speaker 4: handcuff her, get her in a car, and drive her away.

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Speaker 4: Widely circulated online here, This video, according to oz Turk's lawyer,

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Speaker 4: is actually the property of the Department of Homeland Security.

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Speaker 4: This is a thirty year old from Turkey, Fulbright scholar

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Speaker 4: PhD in Child Study in Human Development on an F

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Speaker 4: one student visa at Tufts University. I guess we can

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Speaker 4: hear it now as you hear her try to talk

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Speaker 4: her way. I guess out of this, not sure who

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Speaker 4: these people are. They do eventually identify themselves. They say

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Speaker 4: we are police officers, but they're not wearing uniforms. If

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Speaker 4: we can start that by the way back from the beginning,

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Speaker 4: you'll hear her reaction when she first sees these police

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Speaker 4: officers approach her. Here, we just got an update. This

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Speaker 4: is from the Boston Globe. Osterc who is detained by

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Speaker 4: ICE agents, has already been moved to Louisiana. She had

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Speaker 4: been moved to Louisiana by the time a judge ordered

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Speaker 4: her kept in Massachusetts. The offense here supporting Hamas, DHS

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Speaker 4: and ICE investigations. This is according to an emailed statement

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Speaker 4: from the Department of Homeland Security found Osterk engaged in

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Speaker 4: activities in support of Hamas without sharing evidence of the

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Speaker 4: claim or responding to questions about the video. Now we're

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Speaker 4: isolating this case here because we want to talk about optics,

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Speaker 4: or as the great political producer Adam Belmar used to

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Speaker 4: call polyoptics, a couple of clicks up on the satellite

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Speaker 4: radio dial at potus. Polyoptics when you consider something like

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Speaker 4: this rolling on TVs across the country on phones and

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Speaker 4: computer screens, coupled with some of the other stories that

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Speaker 4: we've been hearing. We've been talking about tariffs a lot.

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Speaker 4: Here a breakdown, for instance, in the Social Security Administration.

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Speaker 4: Nobody's answering the phone, the website is crashing. Add the

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Speaker 4: signal chat room flap, and you start to create a

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Speaker 4: composite here, an optical composite that is in itself a

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Speaker 4: political character, a political issue. And that's where we start

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Speaker 4: now with our political panel. Genie Shanzano is here Bloomberg

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Speaker 4: Politics contributor and of course senior Democracy Fellow at the

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Speaker 4: Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress's our

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Speaker 4: democratic analyst, alongside Republican strategist Chape and Faye, founder Lighthouse

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Speaker 4: Public Affairs. Now, of course, Genie, you're an educator, you're

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Speaker 4: political science professor at Iona University. And what's happening on

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Speaker 4: college campuses like this, this is not an isolated incident,

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Speaker 4: is something that has the attention and has brought much

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Speaker 4: outrage from Democrats. If you could see the statements from

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Speaker 4: the mass delegation following this protest last night in Somerville,

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Speaker 4: what is the optical residue what's the impact of this politically.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean the ring camera footage that you're showing

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Speaker 9: is utterly chilling, and you just played it. You can

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Speaker 9: hear it. It's all over the internet. We have to

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Speaker 9: take a step back and of course say that we

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Speaker 9: do not know. And this is part of the problem.

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Speaker 9: If she was indeed or is being charged with aiding

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Speaker 9: and abetting Hamas, that would be illegal and that could

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Speaker 9: get her detained and thrown out of the country. The

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Speaker 9: problem here is that all people know is that she

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Speaker 9: co authored She is a PhD candidate, and she co

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Speaker 9: authored an editorial in the student newspaper last March which

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Speaker 9: did not mention Hamas. It took on the administration at

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Speaker 9: the university and it was calling for them to divest

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Speaker 9: from their connections with Israel, and it was talking about

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Speaker 9: her concern about the Palestinian people that had been killed.

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Speaker 9: And so the concern is that they are taking people

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Speaker 9: up off the street and throwing them in jail without

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Speaker 9: due process because of their political views. So that is

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Speaker 9: the concern, and that's why we're seeing you know, these

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Speaker 9: you know, thousand plus people out in Powderhouse Square who

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Speaker 9: are calling for her to at least be brought before

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Speaker 9: a judge and charges against her be made explicit.

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Speaker 4: The Mass Attorney General Andrea Campbell said, quote it looked

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Speaker 4: like a kidnapping unquote Senator ed Marky of course, democrat

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Speaker 4: from Mass quote Trump sent massed law enforcement officers to

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Speaker 4: arrest Ramesa oz Turk. A TUSSA university grabs student with

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Speaker 4: legal status without a criminal charge unquote.

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Speaker 5: Chape and faye, what's your thought on this?

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Speaker 4: Is the impact corrosive or is this in fact going

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Speaker 4: to help Donald Trump politically because he's doing what he

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Speaker 4: said he was going to do.

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Speaker 10: I'll tell you what's corrosive.

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Speaker 11: Speaking of kidnapping, there's still an American in captivity in Gaza.

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Speaker 11: They have the remains of other Americans that they refuse

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Speaker 11: to release. Hamas is a terrorist organization. And if you

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Speaker 11: were here on a student visa, you are a guest

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Speaker 11: in this country. If you are supporting Hamas a terrorist

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Speaker 11: organization and making your fellow students feel unsafe on campus,

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Speaker 11: you gotta go. That's plain and simple. And you know,

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Speaker 11: we talk about, you know, outrage from democrats, Donald Trump sneezes,

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Speaker 11: then you get outrage from democrats. So I think we

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Speaker 11: have to go down a little layer here, right, There

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Speaker 11: will be due process for this woman. They will have

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Speaker 11: to show some evidence of what they're alleging, right, and

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Speaker 11: there that will play out. But if you are a

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Speaker 11: guest in this country and you are supporting terrorist organizations

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Speaker 11: and calling for death to America or whatever else all

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Speaker 11: these Hamas supporters are doing, you should absolutely be sent back.

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Speaker 5: Home, will you?

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Speaker 4: Just a couple of important things though, chape and if

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Speaker 4: in fact there is due process, that changes the story.

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Speaker 4: That's one of the points of criticism here. This is

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Speaker 4: somebody who so far has not been charged. What are

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Speaker 4: we in a world in which a student op ed

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Speaker 4: results in a visa being canceled.

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Speaker 11: I don't know, right, I don't know. Like Genie said,

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Speaker 11: we don't know what the evidence is or if there's

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Speaker 11: evidence there. And of course if there's no evidence, and

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Speaker 11: jesus a student who wrote an editorial, then she should

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Speaker 11: she should, you know, maybe be able to stay. But

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Speaker 11: the United States government America gets to pick and choose

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Speaker 11: who gets access to this country. This is the whole

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Speaker 11: point of what's going on. And you're seeing some real

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Speaker 11: world implications happen, and you know it's not pleasant, right,

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Speaker 11: But It's also not pleasant that American Jewish students are

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Speaker 11: getting harassed. It's like Nazi Germany. The left likes to

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Speaker 11: call Republicans Nazis, but we're not the ones who are

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Speaker 11: preventing Jewish students from entering buildings, taking over administrations in

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Speaker 11: a violent manner, and then asking Jewish students for papers.

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Speaker 11: This is all preposterous. If there's any shred of evidence

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Speaker 11: that she has any connection to Hamas, I mean you're

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Speaker 11: seeing here in New York right, the Columbia group that

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Speaker 11: has been support doing these protests that have been taking

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Speaker 11: over buildings was reactivated after being dormant moments before October seventh.

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Speaker 11: I mean that needs to be investigated. This is absolutely preposterous.

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Speaker 11: It's outrageous. And if you are actively calling for death

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Speaker 11: to Americans and you are not a citizen and you

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Speaker 11: are here as a guest, you got to go.

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Speaker 4: I completely appreciate the spirit of what you're saying here,

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Speaker 4: Chapin the fact is, though we wanted to know what

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Speaker 4: would happen when this stuff started happening. Forget mass deportations

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Speaker 4: for a minute, in this case, targeted student protesters on campuses,

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Speaker 4: just like people wondered what will be the impact of

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Speaker 4: family separations if that starts to happen again, Genny, seeing

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Speaker 4: sometimes changes perceptions to seeing this video change the way

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Speaker 4: you're looking at this.

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Speaker 9: It doesn't change the way I am looking at it,

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Speaker 9: but certainly it can change people's views. And nobody knows

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Speaker 9: that better than Donald Trump. I mean, he went on

436
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 9: Meet the Press right when he was elected and he

437
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 9: said that he told them that this is a concern.

438
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:12,199
Speaker 9: But let's just take a step back and let's just

439
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:17,119
Speaker 9: all agree that this particular woman has been accused of

440
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:20,199
Speaker 9: nothing yet that we know. There is no evidence she

441
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:23,959
Speaker 9: intimidated anybody, let alone a Jewish student. There is no

442
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 9: evidence that she did anything to support Hamas. All we

443
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:30,920
Speaker 9: know is she was picked up off the street and

444
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:34,399
Speaker 9: she was a co author of an op ed in

445
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 9: a student newspaper last year which talked about the need

446
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:43,160
Speaker 9: to think about the Palestinians being killed and also asking

447
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 9: her own university to divest from Israel. That is free speech,

448
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 9: that is not unconstitutional. Now, obviously, if there is evidence

449
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:56,639
Speaker 9: that she is colluding with or materially supporting Hamas or

450
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:59,919
Speaker 9: any other terrorist organization, that would be a different story.

451
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 9: But the concern of the people protesting today is that

452
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 9: she has not been produced or charged yet. She needs

453
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 9: to be, that's what the judge called for, and I'm

454
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:12,919
Speaker 9: sure she will be. But she was taken very quickly

455
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:15,919
Speaker 9: out of the state to Louisiana, and so all of

456
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:20,119
Speaker 9: this is concerning when it's looked at in total. These

457
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:24,719
Speaker 9: the concerns that you're hearing out there about kidnapping and otherwise,

458
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 9: this young woman is a Fulbright scholar, a PhD candidate,

459
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:33,479
Speaker 9: and we need to be very very careful how we

460
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 9: treat people coming into this country. And so I do

461
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:41,000
Speaker 9: think there is a chilling effect even in these cases

462
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 9: where you would prove this stuff in the end, in

463
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:45,119
Speaker 9: this case, nothing has been proved.

464
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 4: The OpEd we're talking about was in the Tough Daily

465
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 4: last March. She identified herself as a graduate student for Palestine.

466
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 4: They called for Toughs administrators to acknowledge the Palestinian genocide

467
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:02,120
Speaker 4: and disclose its investment to Genie's point, and divest from

468
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:04,880
Speaker 4: companies with direct or indirect ties to Israel. The op

469
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 4: ed makes no mention of Hamas. So, getting back to

470
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:12,400
Speaker 4: your point, Chapin, if there in fact is some evidence

471
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,640
Speaker 4: here at some point the administration will need to make

472
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 4: this public.

473
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 11: No, of course, and I would have liked to agree.

474
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:25,640
Speaker 11: I am personally a First Amendment absolutist. However, let's take

475
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:29,640
Speaker 11: an even farther step back. Should we be giving visas

476
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 11: and student visas and guest visas to people who advocate

477
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:37,400
Speaker 11: for organizations that have Americans currently in captivity? I don't

478
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:39,480
Speaker 11: think so.

479
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 4: So this comes back to the actual attainment of the visa.

480
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 4: This person shouldn't have been allowed to come here to study,

481
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 4: is what you're saying.

482
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 11: Well, I'm not making that judgment, but I think that's

483
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:55,360
Speaker 11: an argument and a discussion that needs to be had

484
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 11: at a higher level. Right, I mean, it is a privilege,

485
00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:00,399
Speaker 11: not a right to immigrate to this country. I'm not

486
00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:03,399
Speaker 11: anti immigrant. We all come from immigrants. It makes this

487
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 11: country amazing, Right, that's the whole point of America. But

488
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:08,960
Speaker 11: open borders doesn't work.

489
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 5: Right.

490
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:12,360
Speaker 11: There are students who have left Columbia and these colleges

491
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:16,120
Speaker 11: because they are unsafe. And if you ascribe any other

492
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 11: ethnicity or national origin other than Jewish or Israeli, we

493
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:23,440
Speaker 11: would be having a very different conversation about people who

494
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:26,400
Speaker 11: have been put in jail for making other students unsafe,

495
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 11: but we're not. We're having a conversation about the right

496
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:33,359
Speaker 11: of someone to protest on behalf of a terrorist organization.

497
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:36,680
Speaker 5: Felt less than a minute left here, Jeanie.

498
00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 4: University officials say they're in contact with authorities. They hope

499
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:43,719
Speaker 4: Ramesa has provided the opportunity to avail herself of her

500
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:46,159
Speaker 4: due process rights. Is there a legal path for the

501
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:48,920
Speaker 4: school or you just have to watch and see what happens.

502
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:53,920
Speaker 9: Yeah, you know, the university said they were not They

503
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 9: were not privy to any of this information, and so

504
00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:00,240
Speaker 9: they seem to be sort of maintaining a watchful I

505
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:03,639
Speaker 9: think again, on behalf of this student, we must say

506
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 9: we do not have evidence yet that she was protesting

507
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:11,360
Speaker 9: in favor of Hamas. Even if she was, that may

508
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:15,600
Speaker 9: be considered political speech because what's illegal is material support,

509
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 9: not speech. But so far, and you said this, Joe.

510
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:21,920
Speaker 9: The op ed which I read, did not mention Hamas,

511
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:24,240
Speaker 9: nor do I have any evidence, nor has the government

512
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 9: produced some that she was protesting in favor of Ramas.

513
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:35,400
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

514
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:38,480
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

515
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 1: Apple Cockley and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business App.

516
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:45,240
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

517
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube as.

518
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 4: We cover politics in the nation's capital. Thanks for being

519
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:53,600
Speaker 4: with us on the Thursday edition of Balance of Power, Kaylee.

520
00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 4: We were just talking about the potential for a lease

521
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 4: Dephonic to either withdraw her name from consideration to be

522
00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:03,240
Speaker 4: the country's ambassador to the UN or maybe delay that

523
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:05,800
Speaker 4: confirmation because of the super thin majority.

524
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 5: In the House. You know, we're not done with all

525
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:07,720
Speaker 5: the confirmations here.

526
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 4: In fact, it's an important hearing taking place today, the

527
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 4: former Republican SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins having his moment in

528
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:18,920
Speaker 4: the sun here and a hearing that veered into a

529
00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:21,240
Speaker 4: lot of different issues, including conflict of interest. Part of

530
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:23,480
Speaker 4: his opening remarks from earlier, let's.

531
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 12: Listen unclear overly politicized, complicated and burdensome regulations or stifling

532
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 12: capital formation. While American investors are flooded with disclosures that

533
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 12: do the opposite of helping them understand the true risks

534
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 12: of an investment. It is time to reset priorities and

535
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 12: return common sense the SEC.

536
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 2: So a lot of the hearing did focus on what

537
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:50,440
Speaker 2: he would do at the SEC in terms of the

538
00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:52,960
Speaker 2: regulatory landscape it could create when it comes to things

539
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 2: like crypto for example. But some of the hearing as

540
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 2: well focused on the man himself, Paul Atkins. So after

541
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 2: his previous tenure at the SEC that Joe just mentioned,

542
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 2: went on to run Potomac Global Partners, firm based here

543
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 2: in Washington that had a lot of Wall Street clients.

544
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 2: That's where the conflict of interest concerns come from that

545
00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 2: we heard about in the hearing today, and watching all

546
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:15,360
Speaker 2: of it with us here on Bloomberg TV and Radio

547
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 2: is Lydia Bayude, who covers a regulation for us here

548
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,720
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg. So Lydia obviously the conflict of interest concerns

549
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 2: we heard for example the branking member, Senator Elizabeth Warren

550
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 2: highlighting extensively. Ultimately, though that isn't expected to tank his nomination.

551
00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 13: Not at all. He's got really strong support. And even

552
00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:36,160
Speaker 13: Warren was by far the most kind of aggressive of

553
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 13: the Democrats going after that record. It was touched on

554
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 13: by a number of other Democratic lawmakers. But certainly he's

555
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:45,880
Speaker 13: got very strong support from Republicans who see who see

556
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:48,640
Speaker 13: him as sort of uniquely well qualified to run the agency,

557
00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 13: and especially at this time between all that's happening in

558
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:52,440
Speaker 13: capital markets and within government.

559
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:55,080
Speaker 4: His personal assets valued at more than three hundred and

560
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 4: twenty eight million dollars. He owns six billion dollars worth

561
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 4: of bitcoin. This is, by the way, between Atkins and

562
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 4: his wife. He will be divesting from some of these investments,

563
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 4: or all of them, He'll.

564
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 13: Be divesting from the majority of them. In a letter

565
00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 13: that he sent a senator warrant today about some of

566
00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 13: her concerns with his refusals and ethics, he said he

567
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 13: was divesting from I think at least one hundred and

568
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 13: fifty investments. But now his wife is an heir of

569
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,520
Speaker 13: the Tamco roofing family, so they have some kind of

570
00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:28,360
Speaker 13: family personal wealth. He is staying keeping a trustee of

571
00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 13: many of the family trusts, so there are assets that

572
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 13: he is keeping. But he said that he's met or

573
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 13: exceeded sort of the standard requirements for someone who's going

574
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 13: to be in.

575
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 2: This role well, and of course those assets are dwarfed

576
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 2: in comparison to the assets of say Elon Musk, who

577
00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 2: he was actually asked about in the hearing today. Didn't

578
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 2: want to comment on the SEC's actions against Elon Musk,

579
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 2: but talked about Doge.

580
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 11: It's true. Yeah.

581
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:54,479
Speaker 13: He was asked, would you go along with DOJE if

582
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 13: they come to the agency, and he said yes, I

583
00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 13: would certainly, And he'll be looking at whether or not

584
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 13: the SEC is being a good steward tax payer money

585
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:05,080
Speaker 13: and how their mission fits in with what's required by Congress.

586
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 4: Great to have you back with us, Lydia, Thank you

587
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 4: so much for making it clear that he won't have

588
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 4: any trouble.

589
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 5: It looks like at this point, Kaylee being confirmed.

590
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:14,920
Speaker 4: Thanks for joining us today on Balance of Power on

591
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 4: Bloomberg TV and Radio. As we bring you back to

592
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 4: the signal story that we've spent so much time on

593
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 4: this week. We heard from Carolina Levitt, the Press secretary

594
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 4: at the White House, about this a bit earlier today.

595
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 4: Is this story moves into a fourth day now after

596
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:36,760
Speaker 4: The Atlantic actually published actual excerpts from the texted attack

597
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:39,840
Speaker 4: plans that the press, I should say, Secretary of Defense

598
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 4: put on signal.

599
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 5: Let's listen to the press secretary.

600
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 7: Well, we have never denied that this was a mistake,

601
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 7: and the National Security Advisor took responsibility for that, and

602
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 7: we have said we are making changes, we are looking

603
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:54,960
Speaker 7: into the matter to ensure it can never happen again.

604
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 4: And this is where we start our conversation, Kailey with

605
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 4: Denver Riggleman. We've been talking with a lot of different

606
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:06,880
Speaker 4: voices on this story, voices of experience. Denver, of course

607
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 4: former Republican congressman, but also is steeped in technology. He's

608
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 4: started an AI company, spent a lot of time working

609
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 4: as an intelligence official in the United States Air Force,

610
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 4: and he's with us now back on.

611
00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 5: Bloomberg TV and Radio.

612
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:25,720
Speaker 4: I hope I framed your resume properly here, Denver, because

613
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 4: you have unique insight into what happened here with regard

614
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 4: to whether this was in fact classified information, whether there

615
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:35,520
Speaker 4: was some sort of hack or a media hoax, because

616
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 4: we're hearing all three in Washington right now.

617
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 5: What do you think?

618
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 10: Well, then, thanks for having me on.

619
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 14: And you know, I was listening to the prior segment,

620
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 14: and I think some people are rethinking their Senate confirmation

621
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 14: vote after what you've seen with this signal debacle. And

622
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:51,560
Speaker 14: you know my background. You did couch it pretty well, Joe,

623
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 14: and great to be here. Mcayley too. Here's the thing.

624
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 14: I was an Air Force mission planner and when I said,

625
00:33:56,520 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 14: I actually deployed on multiple mission ops, was trained on

626
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 14: fix teens and enough sixteens b ones probably mission planned

627
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 14: more strikes than everybody on that panel has seen or

628
00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:09,799
Speaker 14: done in their lifetimes. And for anybody to say that

629
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 14: this was a hoax, Number one, it's impossible. With signal

630
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 14: nobody can sneak onto there. It's obviously Mike Waltz already

631
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:17,320
Speaker 14: had Jeff Coleberg in his contacts, and one probably was

632
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:20,239
Speaker 14: talking to him previously, which I pointed out before right

633
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:22,319
Speaker 14: that something. He probably was leaking or talking to Jeff

634
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 14: Berg on some other thing, which is why he's so

635
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:28,880
Speaker 14: violently aggressive and pushing these conspiracy theories. But also when

636
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:30,640
Speaker 14: you look at what happened on that signal chat, when

637
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 14: you're looking at time over targets, when you looking at

638
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:34,960
Speaker 14: specific type of air frames, when you're looking at a

639
00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 14: specific mention of the target, all that is at the

640
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 14: minimum secret or collateral level, it's ludicrous to say that

641
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 14: they weren't actually talking classified on those threads, especially when

642
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:47,400
Speaker 14: it was that far out from the strike. If you

643
00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:50,319
Speaker 14: can imagine somebody else being added that maybe wasn't as

644
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:55,000
Speaker 14: ethical as Jeff Goldberg. What our enemies could actually do,

645
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 14: because if you know the air strike or the platforms,

646
00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:00,760
Speaker 14: you can infer the weapons platforms that the actually caring.

647
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:03,719
Speaker 10: So I find it laughable in anybody who's.

648
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:06,360
Speaker 14: Been an ops, real ops like I have in the

649
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 14: United States Air Force or on the ground or Marine

650
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 14: Corps pilots, Navy pilots, Army pilots, they understand the timeover targets,

651
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:17,439
Speaker 14: specific payloads or specific aircraft, and the target itself would

652
00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 14: be classified.

653
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:22,719
Speaker 2: Okay, well, Congressman, help us work through the argument that

654
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 2: the administration is making that even if all of that

655
00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 2: were true, these plans were not compromised or at the

656
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:31,640
Speaker 2: very least not thwarted. This was a successful mission by

657
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:34,399
Speaker 2: all accounts accorded according to their telling. And that's why

658
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 2: the President says this actually was no problem at all.

659
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 2: What do you think, you know?

660
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:43,400
Speaker 14: I find it interesting that they say it's no problem

661
00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 14: to have a leak from the sector at the highest levels.

662
00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 14: That was only by the good fortune that they had

663
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:52,319
Speaker 14: an ethical US citizen that they had included on these

664
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 14: talks to somehow say just because we screwed up so

665
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:57,759
Speaker 14: badly that we could put troops in harm's way, and

666
00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 14: because it didn't. That means it's all hunky. It's so

667
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:06,280
Speaker 14: ludicrous from an intelligence background, but also from a military background,

668
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:09,520
Speaker 14: but just common sense because when you look at what

669
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:12,480
Speaker 14: these individuals have pledged to do and how they've supposedly

670
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 14: been trained and gotten all the security briefings, they broke

671
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 14: so many protocols in this one incident. You wonder how

672
00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:20,480
Speaker 14: many protocols they've broken in the past. You know, there's

673
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 14: something in the military, or we say past performance is

674
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:26,279
Speaker 14: indicative of future performance. How many other screwups have they

675
00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 14: done or they're going to do. When you have people

676
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:30,839
Speaker 14: who have no business being in positions of power, who

677
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:34,240
Speaker 14: don't have the expertise, the acumen right or the judgment,

678
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:37,840
Speaker 14: most of them conspiracy theorists or believers that the election

679
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:40,400
Speaker 14: was stolen. When you have people with that bad adjudgment

680
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:43,000
Speaker 14: that are actually supposed to be holding security clearances, you

681
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:47,839
Speaker 14: want those individuals actually affecting operations based on their own

682
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 14: bad decisions. And I think that's what we have right now,

683
00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:52,799
Speaker 14: is we have fantasy based policy coming from the administration,

684
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:56,240
Speaker 14: but we have individuals that have been confirmed by the Senate,

685
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:59,480
Speaker 14: as you guys alluded to earlier, that really.

686
00:36:59,360 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 10: Shouldn't be there.

687
00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 14: And I think when you have people who don't have

688
00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:03,800
Speaker 14: the experience level or the acumen or the ability to

689
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 14: plan correctly or can follow directions who don't know security,

690
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 14: all of that together could be disaster for the United States.

691
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:12,800
Speaker 14: And I think what it indicates is that they actually

692
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:14,800
Speaker 14: could be the reason that the United States has a

693
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:17,560
Speaker 14: debacle in the future based on their performance today and

694
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:18,600
Speaker 14: literally headshit role.

695
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:22,560
Speaker 4: Well, the thing is that I don't know, it looks

696
00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 4: like that might not happen here at Denver, and you

697
00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 4: might suggest otherwise, but the President is standing behind his

698
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:31,160
Speaker 4: team and he's suggested there's nothing to see here. So

699
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:33,960
Speaker 4: is there a chance that there'll be a credible investigation

700
00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 4: led by Congress.

701
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:38,240
Speaker 10: No, not going to happen.

702
00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:41,360
Speaker 14: No, I you know, my guess is there's going to

703
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:44,719
Speaker 14: be an executive order allowing signal tomorrow, you know, to

704
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 14: be used for classified operations, right, or there's going to

705
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:49,920
Speaker 14: be some kind of preemptive pardon, you know, for signal

706
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:52,719
Speaker 14: users in the DoD. I mean, it's so ludicrous, and

707
00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:54,640
Speaker 14: I think it's what's scaring our allies right now. And

708
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:57,640
Speaker 14: I think what people are concentrating on the fact that

709
00:37:57,680 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 14: the signal they invited somebody they were discussing cloud fight

710
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:04,600
Speaker 14: information right on a comms channel that wasn't authorized. But

711
00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:06,480
Speaker 14: it's also how do our allies think about how they

712
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:09,359
Speaker 14: were being spoken about. There's so many cascading effects here,

713
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 14: Joe and Kayley that it's hard for people that you know,

714
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:16,399
Speaker 14: have IQ above moron and common sense to grasp how

715
00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:18,160
Speaker 14: this administration could defend this in any way.

716
00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 10: But we've seen this in the past.

717
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:21,040
Speaker 14: I mean, we've gone from where they're not going to

718
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 14: be an investigation on this to reparations for J six,

719
00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:26,839
Speaker 14: you know, insurrectionists. So you know, let's not think that

720
00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 14: this administration is going to all of a sudden change

721
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:32,680
Speaker 14: their spots and have any kind of real adult in

722
00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 14: the room type of decision making when it comes to

723
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:36,680
Speaker 14: our troops in the field. And I think that's what

724
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:38,720
Speaker 14: it goes back to as me being a military member,

725
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:40,840
Speaker 14: I just want to make sure that our troops in

726
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:44,120
Speaker 14: the field, that people flying those missions are FOURD air controllers,

727
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:46,920
Speaker 14: those on the ground, all those are protected. And right

728
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 14: now with this administration, what we saw with this debacle

729
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:51,520
Speaker 14: and releasing this information, I don't know if anybody in

730
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 14: the military can feel one hundred percent that this administration

731
00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:56,720
Speaker 14: has the best interest of the military or our national

732
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:59,440
Speaker 14: defense in mind. Well, and talk.

733
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:01,640
Speaker 2: About the role allies that you were just referring to

734
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:04,839
Speaker 2: play in ensuring the safety of military or at least

735
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:09,080
Speaker 2: the obtaining of necessary intelligence. Because you've talked about the

736
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:11,640
Speaker 2: way our allies were spoken about the idea that Europeans

737
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:14,319
Speaker 2: are freeloaders and shouldn't be bailed out. It'd be one

738
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:16,400
Speaker 2: thing if they were simply offended. It would be another

739
00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:19,120
Speaker 2: if they decided the US is not trustworthy in terms

740
00:39:19,120 --> 00:39:23,439
Speaker 2: of receiving and transmitting classified information and intelligence they may

741
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:26,640
Speaker 2: have otherwise shared with US. What would be lost if

742
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:29,040
Speaker 2: allies started holding back some of that material.

743
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:32,719
Speaker 14: Oh, the first thing that's lost, it really is our

744
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:38,920
Speaker 14: ability to maneuver and massage events that are happening in

745
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:41,440
Speaker 14: a foreign fair's environment. And I think that's that's what

746
00:39:41,560 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 14: scares the hell out of me, is that we don't

747
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:46,279
Speaker 14: have this ability to dictate or to look at our

748
00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:49,879
Speaker 14: best interests or to be helpful as sort of we've

749
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:51,919
Speaker 14: listened people might say, hey, Dan, you know, we don't

750
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:53,520
Speaker 14: know if it's a fantasy reality, but we've looked at

751
00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:55,439
Speaker 14: ourselves as sort of the moral do gooders, the people

752
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:57,400
Speaker 14: that could come in right and give some of these

753
00:39:57,400 --> 00:40:00,560
Speaker 14: security assurances to our allies. If our allies don't believe

754
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:03,680
Speaker 14: that what happens next? Right, And I think what they're

755
00:40:03,680 --> 00:40:05,960
Speaker 14: seeing too is there's no truth in fact baseline to

756
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:07,919
Speaker 14: need the decision making. It seems to be knee jerk

757
00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 14: and based on fantasy, especially when you're looking at Ukraine.

758
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 14: You know, when I'm talking about air ops, you know,

759
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:15,560
Speaker 14: you know Amy McGrath, you know Marine FA teen pilot.

760
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:17,239
Speaker 14: We're doing a new show you know, called Truth in

761
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:19,840
Speaker 14: the Barrel that's coming out, and we're talking about this exactly.

762
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:22,400
Speaker 14: The question you just asked, right is how does all

763
00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:24,000
Speaker 14: this actually affect our European allies?

764
00:40:24,040 --> 00:40:25,840
Speaker 10: But how does this also affect Ukraine?

765
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:26,680
Speaker 3: Right?

766
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:29,120
Speaker 10: Specifically, so how do we affect Ukraine?

767
00:40:29,120 --> 00:40:29,319
Speaker 5: Now?

768
00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:32,400
Speaker 10: Joe and Kaylee? What really what is our position?

769
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:37,040
Speaker 14: Jd Vance already made it clear when he was there before, right,

770
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:39,439
Speaker 14: that they do only think Ukraine could be in NATO.

771
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:41,400
Speaker 14: I mean, it's just ludicrous to give up all of

772
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:43,759
Speaker 14: that sort of negotiating clout. So I think what you

773
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:45,719
Speaker 14: have is that the EU needs to look at going

774
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 14: their own way and I think you're seeing some of

775
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:51,719
Speaker 14: those positions when you're looking at poland saying, hey, you

776
00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:53,640
Speaker 14: know what, maybe we need to have our own nuclear program,

777
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:56,080
Speaker 14: or you're looking at South Korea saying, hey, maybe we

778
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 14: need our own nuclear program. Now, all the security insurance,

779
00:40:59,200 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 14: nuclear insurance, is all the weapons, all of our contractors,

780
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:06,200
Speaker 14: all of those decades and decades of building trust is

781
00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:08,120
Speaker 14: broken immediately, and how do we.

782
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:08,879
Speaker 10: Get that trust back?

783
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:12,040
Speaker 14: So there's multiple cascading effects for the decision making and

784
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:14,239
Speaker 14: the hyperbole that's coming out of the administration.

785
00:41:15,480 --> 00:41:17,040
Speaker 5: Then for we've only got a minute left.

786
00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:21,440
Speaker 4: President Trump had said repeatedly that the platforms that are

787
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:26,080
Speaker 4: used now to share classified information are cumbersome, they're not efficient,

788
00:41:26,120 --> 00:41:29,080
Speaker 4: they're not effective. That's why they had to reach for signal.

789
00:41:29,360 --> 00:41:33,719
Speaker 4: I just wonder if, from your technical background, never mind

790
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:36,400
Speaker 4: your political one, is it time for a new platform.

791
00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:41,719
Speaker 4: Is there a classified friendly signal, a government friendly platform

792
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:43,000
Speaker 4: that they need to start working on.

793
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:46,720
Speaker 14: Listen, and I can't use all of the classified chats,

794
00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:48,920
Speaker 14: but as back even the middle of the two thousands,

795
00:41:48,920 --> 00:41:51,440
Speaker 14: we had a chat, secure chat called jabber. You have

796
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:53,520
Speaker 14: secure chat all over the place, right, you don't need

797
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 14: to actually absolutely go to signal. You have encrypted phones,

798
00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 14: you have all that. Also, are there things in the

799
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:01,239
Speaker 14: military there are absolute bureaucratic and ridiculous.

800
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 10: Yes, I was there.

801
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:05,359
Speaker 14: Gosh, I know Joe Cayley better than most. Right, yes,

802
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:08,239
Speaker 14: but don't break the law or be stupid because you

803
00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:09,840
Speaker 14: think something else needs to be used.

804
00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:11,520
Speaker 10: Try to do better.

805
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:13,160
Speaker 14: And I think that's what it comes down to it

806
00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:15,880
Speaker 14: with military ethics and integrity. Use what you have and

807
00:42:15,880 --> 00:42:17,560
Speaker 14: if you have to change something in the future, then

808
00:42:17,600 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 14: work towards it.

809
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:21,440
Speaker 2: Then all right, we'll leave it on that note. Former

810
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:25,560
Speaker 2: Republican Congressman Denver Rigelmann, also former Air Force intelligence.

811
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

812
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 4: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

813
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:37,680
Speaker 4: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

814
00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:41,440
Speaker 4: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at

815
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:42,680
Speaker 4: Bloomberg dot com.