1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,840 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. We begin 11 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:49,600 Speaker 2: our coverage now of what's going on in Washington. David 12 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:52,320 Speaker 2: gerrodrig VILLI A to B with us. Later we start 13 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:56,320 Speaker 2: strowing from Brown University, the Taubmann Center. Wendy Schiller, who, 14 00:00:56,400 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 2: whatever your political persuasion, has really given us historical perspective. Wendy, 15 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 2: I read every word of the Wall Street Journal TikTok 16 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:09,119 Speaker 2: this morning, and I'm assume they interviewed forty people. Blah 17 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:13,960 Speaker 2: blah blah. This goes on forever about the ageless battle 18 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 2: of hiding a fragile president's health. Can you compare this 19 00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:23,120 Speaker 2: to Woodrow Wilson. Can you compare it to other moments 20 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 2: in history or is this original territory for our listeners 21 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 2: and viewers With President. 22 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:32,280 Speaker 3: Biden, good morning time, Good morning, Paul. 23 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:35,039 Speaker 4: I think you might compare it to Ronald Reagan more 24 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:38,160 Speaker 4: than Woodrow Wilson, simply because of the media access and 25 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:40,200 Speaker 4: of course, you know, you start to have much more 26 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 4: talk radio, you have the nascent c Span cable, but 27 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:48,640 Speaker 4: you have sort of media full force and objective theoretically, 28 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 4: as you know, when Drow Wilson was president in the 29 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 4: early part of the twentieth century, the media was not 30 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 4: quote unquote objective. 31 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 3: It was fairly part isn't slanted. So now you're. 32 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 4: Looking at Ronald Reagan and starting in eighty forty five, 33 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:03,800 Speaker 4: he runs again. Obviously in eighty forty wins quite handily, 34 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 4: but you can see more handling going on. You know, 35 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 4: me may not have seen it now, you know, with 36 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 4: Biden in the same exact way, because Reagan could pull 37 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 4: it off. But we know that he was compromised. We 38 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 4: know that he was in the beginning stages of Alzheimer's, 39 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 4: and we. 40 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 3: Know that his staff covered it up. 41 00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 4: So we know all that now and so it just 42 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 4: makes I think the media far more suspicious of the 43 00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 4: Biden administration. Anybody who sort of experienced the Reagan administration 44 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:31,960 Speaker 4: understanding how much can be quote unquote covered up with 45 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:34,360 Speaker 4: a president that may not be one hundred percent on 46 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:35,040 Speaker 4: his game. 47 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 2: What are you watching? I mean, it's a blur. Paul's 48 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 2: watching certain things. I'm watching certain things. We're all our 49 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:45,360 Speaker 2: heads are spinning over this. What is Professor Schiller watching? 50 00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 2: Tick by tick? What is the thing that focuses. 51 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 4: I'm looking at the difference between our daily lives and 52 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 4: the functioning of the federal government and all this obsession 53 00:02:56,360 --> 00:02:59,639 Speaker 4: with Biden's capacity understand it's a reasonable question to ask 54 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:02,320 Speaker 4: Bernie eighty one year old president who had a disastrous 55 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 4: debate and shows signs of aging. 56 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 3: There's no question it's fair game. 57 00:03:06,760 --> 00:03:09,639 Speaker 4: But most Americans want to know is the government working 58 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:11,880 Speaker 4: or is the government not working? And you know, you're 59 00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:13,920 Speaker 4: talking about inflation. We sort of get a sense it 60 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 4: might be easy. Things are slowing, but the economy is 61 00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:20,840 Speaker 4: still pretty vibrant. The question is does consumer sentiment shift 62 00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:25,920 Speaker 4: in time to reward Biden for handling inflation or not? 63 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:28,800 Speaker 3: And I think that's really the big determinant. 64 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 4: You know, age is a big deal in the media 65 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:33,800 Speaker 4: right now, But you know, is the federal government functioning? 66 00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 3: Yes it is? Is it shut down? No? It isn't 67 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:38,240 Speaker 3: Is it the meeting with our NATO allies? 68 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 4: Are we sending weapons where we need to spend weapons 69 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 4: in the interest of the United States according to him, Yes, 70 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:47,520 Speaker 4: So that's the big disconnect is the media focus on 71 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 4: this issue, whereas the rest of the country kind of 72 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 4: experience is the federal government and says, right now, except 73 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 4: for inflation, it's working decently well. 74 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:58,920 Speaker 5: Wendy, I think if you talk to again most Democrats, 75 00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 5: they would say, we'll back any candidate that is best 76 00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:06,800 Speaker 5: equipped to beat former President Trump. Is there any consensus 77 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:09,680 Speaker 5: who that is today or are we still trying to 78 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 5: figure out whether it's President Biden or someone else? 79 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:16,599 Speaker 4: Well, that's exactly the right question I think to ask 80 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 4: between now and November, if Biden doesn't drop out, a 81 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:22,599 Speaker 4: who runs the Democrat Party? You know, I've said before 82 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:24,800 Speaker 4: the president is the you know, digular leader of the 83 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:27,720 Speaker 4: Democratic Party, being a Democrat and being in the White House. 84 00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:30,440 Speaker 3: But basically we don't have any big power brokers that 85 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:31,720 Speaker 3: can really seal this deal. 86 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 4: And second is chaos on the Democratic side if he 87 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 4: steps down, something that's going to counter chaos on the 88 00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 4: Trump side. 89 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 3: Because right now Trump doesn't look chaotic. The Republicans look unified. 90 00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 4: In fact, they're modifying their abortion stance in their platform. 91 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:48,200 Speaker 3: Their convention is next week. 92 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:51,520 Speaker 4: If it's disciplined and Trump stays on message and doesn't 93 00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:54,799 Speaker 4: go off the rails, the Republicans look orderly. The Republicans 94 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:57,120 Speaker 4: look like they have acted together, and the Democrats look 95 00:04:57,200 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 4: like they're a mess. So this is really the big 96 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:03,040 Speaker 4: problem for the Democrats. You say he will lose to Trump, 97 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:06,159 Speaker 4: But if you create more chaos around the nominee, I 98 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:09,440 Speaker 4: think you magnify or you know, expand the chances that 99 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 4: you will lose to the Republicans because they will look, 100 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 4: for the first time in a long time, more orderly 101 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:16,040 Speaker 4: than the Democrats. 102 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:20,039 Speaker 5: Preview for us, what you think that Democratic convention will 103 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 5: look like, because boy, there are some crazy scenarios out there. 104 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:27,120 Speaker 2: Let should send us, Yes, they should the Democratic. 105 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 4: I mention right now, the rules of the convention and 106 00:05:29,279 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 4: reinforced by state laws, are that the delegates pledged to Biden. 107 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:34,359 Speaker 3: Have to vote for Biden on the first ballot. 108 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:37,479 Speaker 4: They can risk, you know, sort of being penalized or 109 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:39,520 Speaker 4: possibly criminalized if they don't. 110 00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:41,360 Speaker 3: But that's the deal that we have now. 111 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:45,600 Speaker 4: Could Biden strategically announce, let's say nine o'clock next Thursday 112 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 4: night or something, maybe right when Trump is making his 113 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:51,640 Speaker 4: acceptance speech that he is not running and that he's 114 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 4: giving his delegates to Kamala Harris. He could do that, 115 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 4: or he could wait till the following Monday, and that 116 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 4: becomes the news story, and that becomes a brillion Yeah, 117 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 4: I wish. 118 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:02,359 Speaker 2: You could go on for an hour, Paul asked a 119 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 2: smart question. It's a brilliant answer. 120 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:10,360 Speaker 6: If we get that the former presidents in this Milwaukee moment, 121 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:13,520 Speaker 6: the Democrats come out and say, blah blah blah, whatever 122 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:19,320 Speaker 6: the Harris. What will be the response of mainline Democrats. 123 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 6: What will be the response southwest of Pittsburgh. 124 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:26,479 Speaker 2: What will be the response in West Virginia? What will 125 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:32,280 Speaker 2: be the response in Las Vegas of moderate, normal Democrats, 126 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 2: not the elites. 127 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:38,360 Speaker 4: I think it might be some trepidation, but a sigh 128 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:41,800 Speaker 4: of relief that you won't have chaos, you won't have 129 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:45,800 Speaker 4: protests in Chicago, you won't have you know, Bernie Sanders 130 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 4: was Warren running around sort of. 131 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 3: Figuring out who they want. 132 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:54,040 Speaker 4: You won't have the appearance of dysfunction, You'll have orderly succession. 133 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:56,680 Speaker 3: She's the vice president of the United States. Now. 134 00:06:56,800 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 4: We asked me what they'll think in Detroit, in Pittsburgh, 135 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:03,719 Speaker 4: as you mentioned, in Philadelphia, in Georgia, which is not 136 00:07:03,839 --> 00:07:05,760 Speaker 4: in play right now. But if Kamla Ris is at 137 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:07,880 Speaker 4: the top of the ticket for the Democrats, it's back 138 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:08,920 Speaker 4: in play in. 139 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:11,840 Speaker 3: North Carolina more than a million black voters, you know. 140 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:14,480 Speaker 4: Ask me about those states if Kamla Ris is the 141 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 4: head of the ticket and what Democrats can figure out 142 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:20,920 Speaker 4: about voter mobilization, which they're not doing successfully now, but 143 00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:24,360 Speaker 4: they could theoretically she's at the top of the ticket. 144 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 2: Wendy YouTube live chat lights up like a candle when 145 00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 2: you're on. Thank you so much, Wendy Schiller of the 146 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:44,400 Speaker 2: Topman Center joining us. So, Sarah Hunt, she's an Alpine 147 00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:50,160 Speaker 2: sexon Wood's important investment management and I gotta believe I 148 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 2: think a Lael brainer with economics at Wesleyan as well. 149 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:57,080 Speaker 2: It really prepared you to study artificial intelligence. I mean, 150 00:07:57,640 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 2: you're a mere mortal. You're running a portfolio, are you 151 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:03,000 Speaker 2: doing well, like you got a first six six six 152 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:04,040 Speaker 2: months statistic. 153 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 1: It's been it's been a good it's been a good year. 154 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:08,320 Speaker 1: We have several different strategies. We are ahead of the 155 00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 1: S and P and a couple and about about tracking 156 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 1: it with in the game. It's a good year. 157 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 2: Yet, how does a mere mortal, including all of our 158 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:21,480 Speaker 2: listeners study the future of AI? Where one report is 159 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:24,240 Speaker 2: it's all fiction, gold and sex with a note it's 160 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 2: all fiction, We're all gonna die, and another one saying 161 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:29,640 Speaker 2: say that, who's the guy that dresses fancy in the colors? 162 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 7: Oh? 163 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:33,960 Speaker 2: Dan Dan, I's Dan eyes goes to the moon? How 164 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:36,680 Speaker 2: do you synthesize that? If you're a mere mortal with 165 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 2: partsmen from Wesleyan University, I think you. 166 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 1: Know a lot of what you have to do is 167 00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 1: look at what is going on right now. Right now, 168 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:46,680 Speaker 1: there's a huge spend to get the infrastructure in place 169 00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:49,200 Speaker 1: to be able to utilize AI. The big question is 170 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 1: what happens once you get that infrastructure into place? And 171 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:53,520 Speaker 1: I think to your point, that's the golden note this morning, 172 00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:56,400 Speaker 1: which is questioning what is the outcome of all of this? 173 00:08:56,840 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 1: I think in a lot of cases, what is the 174 00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 1: use cases will be are not necessarily what we're looking 175 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:03,000 Speaker 1: at now, but there may be a pause between a 176 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 1: huge spend on the infrastructure and how those use cases 177 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:07,520 Speaker 1: play out. I think that's where the market would be 178 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 1: more vulnerable. Right now, you have a big spend on 179 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 1: the infrastructure, and right now that's where people are putting 180 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:14,640 Speaker 1: all their time and energy looking at things like Nvidia 181 00:09:14,679 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 1: and the companies the data centers that will absolutely be 182 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 1: helped by this. 183 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 5: Well that I mean, the discussion of AI brings us 184 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 5: to maybe one of the biggest concerns for market watchers, 185 00:09:24,640 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 5: which is the concentration of performance in this market. And 186 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:32,719 Speaker 5: then a handful of names SPX up almost seventeen percent, SPY. 187 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:35,079 Speaker 7: The equal weight it up four percent. That's not good. 188 00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:35,920 Speaker 1: Well, it's not. 189 00:09:36,800 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 8: It just is right. 190 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 1: It's hard to evaluate whether that's a good thing or 191 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:42,959 Speaker 1: a bad thing. Sometimes in our markets and badly sometimes 192 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:44,959 Speaker 1: they don't. I think right now, what you're seeing is 193 00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 1: the enthusiasm for a certain sector. But what that's also 194 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:49,840 Speaker 1: showing is that the balance of the market hasn't run 195 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:52,360 Speaker 1: that fast, and so the expense, how expensive that is 196 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 1: on a bee basis, makes the rest of the market 197 00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 1: not look so expensive, which is what people. 198 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 7: Are worried about. 199 00:09:56,960 --> 00:09:59,880 Speaker 1: Those tech juggernauts are not cheap, and they remain not 200 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:02,240 Speaker 1: cheap because that's what people are chasing. But the balance 201 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:03,960 Speaker 1: of the market is not insanely expensive. 202 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:07,320 Speaker 2: Do you see theirs CFOs at these tech juggernauts as 203 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:11,839 Speaker 2: you call them, adjusting and taking use of cash if 204 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:16,080 Speaker 2: there's a stumble, if it's not as rosy it is 205 00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 2: expected to be. Don't They have a huge amount of 206 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:23,720 Speaker 2: AMMO and use of cash to support their share price. 207 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 1: Well, and this is also where they have a huge 208 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 1: amount of cash to support the spend right now on 209 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:31,080 Speaker 1: that AI infrastructure. And that's why that's less of a 210 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:33,560 Speaker 1: concern because you've got so many people who have so 211 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:36,280 Speaker 1: much money to spend that. And yes, they absolutely have 212 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:38,760 Speaker 1: so much cash that should this turn into something where 213 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:40,800 Speaker 1: they don't start to see a return or they start 214 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:42,560 Speaker 1: to worry about those returns, they've got room. 215 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:45,280 Speaker 2: I mean, Paul, this is really important. There's a startup 216 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:48,800 Speaker 2: company out in Washington State called Microsoft Heart of Them. 217 00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:53,320 Speaker 2: They got one hundred and ten billion in cash from operations. 218 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 2: Their capex is more than doubled to forty billion, one 219 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 2: hundred and ten take Away forty is a seventy billion 220 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:07,480 Speaker 2: dollars free cash flow. So Cappax, as Sarah Hunt says, 221 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:10,960 Speaker 2: is ballooned. But their cash from operations is like a 222 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 2: moot shop. 223 00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 7: Yep. 224 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:14,520 Speaker 5: And the question is for a lot of these big 225 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 5: tech names is what do they do with their cash? So, Sarah, 226 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 5: let's say, I mean Tom's all and Lisa, they're all 227 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:22,200 Speaker 5: in the big seven stocks. I unfortunately have missed that trade. 228 00:11:23,160 --> 00:11:24,200 Speaker 7: Where do I go now? 229 00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:26,680 Speaker 5: I mean, do I look for other sectors? Do I 230 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:29,319 Speaker 5: try to find some value out there in the marketplace? 231 00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:30,240 Speaker 7: Where do we go? 232 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:30,559 Speaker 2: Well? 233 00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 1: I think that, like I said earlier, the rest of 234 00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:35,840 Speaker 1: the market is not overly expensive. And I think that 235 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 1: to the extent that you've had some correction in Nvidia, 236 00:11:38,559 --> 00:11:41,640 Speaker 1: and you see these names do correct periodically. Is to 237 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:43,720 Speaker 1: keep an eye on that. But it is all about 238 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:45,800 Speaker 1: the cash and about the cash generation, as Tom just said, 239 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:47,559 Speaker 1: and that is I think the biggest thing. The companies 240 00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:49,680 Speaker 1: that can generate cash are the ones that people gravitate 241 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:52,679 Speaker 1: to ye because they understand that that means that whatever happens, 242 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:55,959 Speaker 1: they have the wherewithal to continue to move through whatever's 243 00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:56,319 Speaker 1: going on. 244 00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:58,360 Speaker 7: Economically, all right, we're about to kick in. 245 00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:01,400 Speaker 5: I guess kind of Thursday into earnings mode once again. 246 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:04,120 Speaker 5: Got some airlines coming out Theresday. We've got obviously the 247 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:07,080 Speaker 5: big banks Jamie Diamond coming out of Friday. What do 248 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:08,360 Speaker 5: we look for in this earning cycle? 249 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:11,160 Speaker 1: I think what we're looking for, I mean Q one, 250 00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:13,959 Speaker 1: the bar was people were concerned that a lot of 251 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:15,839 Speaker 1: the spending was not going to continue and there were 252 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 1: going to be issues in Q one. Q one was 253 00:12:17,520 --> 00:12:20,400 Speaker 1: fine the continuation. I think for the financials, you want 254 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:22,240 Speaker 1: to see stability and you want to make sure that 255 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:24,200 Speaker 1: things are okay there, even though you don't you do 256 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:27,520 Speaker 1: have the yield curve not necessarily helping the banks out 257 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:29,719 Speaker 1: right now, but you just want to see progression, that 258 00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:31,920 Speaker 1: there's nothing going wrong in any of those places, that 259 00:12:31,960 --> 00:12:36,480 Speaker 1: you're not seeing deterioration in financials and credit credit quality 260 00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 1: and credit conditions, and that people can handle what's going 261 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 1: on on the financial front. I think you want to 262 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 1: see progress and all of that. I think you don't 263 00:12:43,040 --> 00:12:44,880 Speaker 1: want to see anybody warning big. 264 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:48,520 Speaker 2: Tell me about healthcare. If I look at United Healthcare 265 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 2: as the ginormous entity, it's flatlined for eighteen months. Do 266 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:58,320 Speaker 2: you assume it gets back on multi decade trajectory or 267 00:12:58,360 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 2: is there a new nude healthcare? 268 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:03,079 Speaker 1: Well, I think that the pandemic completely upended a lot 269 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:05,080 Speaker 1: of the healthcare spend, and I think that there was 270 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 1: a rush into a lot of those stocks because a 271 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:09,360 Speaker 1: lot of people didn't actually spend that much on healthcare. 272 00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:12,000 Speaker 1: So for something like United Health specifically, that was really 273 00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 1: great post pandemic. There's a question of, Okay, those valuations 274 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:17,480 Speaker 1: went very high, are they worth it here? And do 275 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:19,360 Speaker 1: we need to look at what's going to happen going forward. 276 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:22,040 Speaker 1: I think it's still a question of how healthcare gets utilized, 277 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:23,840 Speaker 1: and I still think that we're not in what we 278 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:26,080 Speaker 1: would call a normalized environment post the pandemic. 279 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 2: I mean, I'm looking at the cash from operations, Paul, 280 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:31,240 Speaker 2: You're ready for this. I set one hundred and ten 281 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:36,480 Speaker 2: billion on Microsoft United Healthcare. I never would have guessed 282 00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:41,560 Speaker 2: this is one ninth the size fourteen billion. Wow, one 283 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:45,000 Speaker 2: ten versus fourteen yep, And yet I would have equated 284 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:47,160 Speaker 2: it to say, half of Microsoft or something like that. 285 00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:50,040 Speaker 2: Extordin every time sarahunt walks in, I learned some learn something. 286 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:55,960 Speaker 2: It's like great, make it a daily thing. Sarah On Alpine, Alpine. 287 00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 7: Woods, Alpine Saxon Wood. 288 00:13:57,920 --> 00:13:59,680 Speaker 2: Excuse me, I got it. Well, there's a type you know, 289 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:06,200 Speaker 2: maybe it's my hyghes. This is a joy if you're 290 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 2: Jan Hatzias with all the heritage of Golden Sacks economics, 291 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:12,280 Speaker 2: going back to Ed McKelvey and a guy named Dudley 292 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:14,880 Speaker 2: now or was it the New York Fed, I should say, 293 00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:19,120 Speaker 2: and Jim O'Neil in London and all it's about hiring people. 294 00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:21,440 Speaker 2: And one of them is David Miracle joins us right 295 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:27,320 Speaker 2: now with Goldman Sachs, with prodigious economics and critically the 296 00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:31,600 Speaker 2: dynamics of statistics at a small school up in Boston 297 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:34,280 Speaker 2: by the name of Harvard. David, thank you so much 298 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:36,960 Speaker 2: for joining us this morning. I want to combine in 299 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:43,000 Speaker 2: the dynamics of statistics into the economic guests of Goldman Sachs. 300 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 2: The shadows that are out there right now, the uncertainties. 301 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:53,320 Speaker 2: Is elarian would say, the unknown unknowns. Are they quantifiable 302 00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:56,920 Speaker 2: now or are you guessing into the future. I think 303 00:14:57,040 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 2: you know. 304 00:14:57,280 --> 00:14:59,800 Speaker 9: Obviously, from month to month there ups and downs in 305 00:14:59,840 --> 00:15:03,440 Speaker 9: the data. In the inflation data this year, notably, there 306 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 9: were some firmer prints at the start of the year 307 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:08,920 Speaker 9: that I think exaggerated things a little bit. Last month 308 00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:11,640 Speaker 9: we had much better news that maybe exaggerated things in 309 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 9: the other direction a little bit. But you know, broadly, 310 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 9: I think if you kind of step back, the labor 311 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 9: markets rebalancing, inflation's coming down, the Feds getting ready to 312 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:24,840 Speaker 9: cut rates, and so, you know, while not every print 313 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:28,280 Speaker 9: kind of makes sense month to month, big picture, I 314 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:30,600 Speaker 9: think things are evolving in a way that's kind of 315 00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:33,520 Speaker 9: reasonably in line with what you would expect based on 316 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:36,600 Speaker 9: economic principles and kind of what we're looking for for 317 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:40,880 Speaker 9: the year. Further, if not definitive progress on inflation and 318 00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:43,200 Speaker 9: the beginning of a rate poup cycle in September. 319 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:45,920 Speaker 2: To go to your statistics background, the financial media has 320 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 2: to do not sing Tel one oh one and talk 321 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:52,080 Speaker 2: about the tails, the right tail, the left tail, the mystery, 322 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:55,000 Speaker 2: the uncertainty that's out there one two, three, four standard 323 00:15:55,080 --> 00:16:00,160 Speaker 2: deviations out What is your left tail concern right now? Now? 324 00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:03,680 Speaker 2: What's the worry when you're in meetings at Goldman Sex 325 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:06,119 Speaker 2: on this nation's economy. 326 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:10,560 Speaker 9: I wouldn't say there's anything that looks like that big 327 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:12,400 Speaker 9: of a risk. But I think the most obvious thing 328 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,040 Speaker 9: to keep an eye on is that the unemployment rate 329 00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:17,760 Speaker 9: has come up on a three month average basis. It's 330 00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:21,120 Speaker 9: up half a percentage point. You know, as Chair Powell 331 00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:23,640 Speaker 9: said last week, that leaves us in a place with 332 00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:26,880 Speaker 9: unemployment just a hair above four. That is great by 333 00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:30,240 Speaker 9: historical standards. But yeah, I would think you certainly don't 334 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 9: want that to rise any further. Now. The reason I'm 335 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 9: not that worried about it is that the Fed has 336 00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:37,800 Speaker 9: a lot of room to cut interest rates if things 337 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:41,440 Speaker 9: do deteriorate further than they already have. You know, I 338 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:44,160 Speaker 9: think that would be quite unnecessary in order to solve 339 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 9: the inflation problem, which at this point is just a 340 00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:49,360 Speaker 9: matter of waiting for lagged effects to go away. I 341 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 9: think the Fed shares that view, and so, you know, 342 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:55,280 Speaker 9: one pushback to this risk, and I think to many risks, 343 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 9: is that if they do materialize in a more damaging way, 344 00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:01,040 Speaker 9: the Fed is now at ready to cut. 345 00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:04,959 Speaker 5: So by that, I guess Russian Now, David, is it 346 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:07,480 Speaker 5: more likely in your opinion, for the Fed to wait 347 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:09,919 Speaker 5: here and maybe wait till I don't know, December or 348 00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 5: something like that. 349 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:15,080 Speaker 9: You know, obviously in June we saw that Opinions were 350 00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:18,760 Speaker 9: pretty mixed on the FMC, with eleven people looking for 351 00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:22,359 Speaker 9: one cut or less which could mean December, and a 352 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:25,199 Speaker 9: minority eight but one that I would guess includes the 353 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:28,480 Speaker 9: leadership looking for two. My guess is that if the 354 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:31,360 Speaker 9: inflation numbers come in the way we're expecting this month, 355 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:34,200 Speaker 9: in the next couple of months, we're looking for twenty 356 00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 9: one basis points on core CPI this week. That the 357 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:41,200 Speaker 9: combination of better inflation news, an unemployment rate that's now 358 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,960 Speaker 9: risen half a point or so, and a chaer who 359 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 9: last week signaled that he sounded like he was ready 360 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:50,720 Speaker 9: to cut and maybe was willing to push a little 361 00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:52,680 Speaker 9: bit for that that that will add up to a 362 00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:54,040 Speaker 9: cotton September. 363 00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:56,480 Speaker 7: David, how do you feel about the US consumer? 364 00:17:56,520 --> 00:17:56,720 Speaker 2: Here? 365 00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:58,639 Speaker 5: There's a lot of concern out there that there's the 366 00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:01,680 Speaker 5: haves and have nots, and maybe that divide has never 367 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:04,119 Speaker 5: been more pronounced than it is today, particularly in a 368 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:08,119 Speaker 5: world with higher inflation. How do you think about the consumer? 369 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:09,520 Speaker 5: How do you think they've felt a reserve things about 370 00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:10,240 Speaker 5: the US consumer? 371 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:14,159 Speaker 9: Yeah, you know, look, from my perspective, a lot of 372 00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:17,560 Speaker 9: the more pessimistic use have been over complicating things the 373 00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:21,800 Speaker 9: last few years. We've had this year as last year, 374 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 9: solid real income growth, we have record strong household balance 375 00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 9: sheets that to me looks like it was a pretty 376 00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:32,920 Speaker 9: straightforward combination and recipe for solid consumption growth last year. 377 00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:35,359 Speaker 9: It's not going to be as strong this year because 378 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 9: job growth is slowing. Last year was exceptional. You know, 379 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:40,639 Speaker 9: we had people coming back into the labor force. We 380 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:43,360 Speaker 9: had a big immigration surge that now seems to be slowing. 381 00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:46,679 Speaker 9: So I think we're basically seeing a watered down version 382 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 9: of last year's story, where those strong fundamental drivers give 383 00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 9: us solid consumption growth. You know, I'm not that worried 384 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:56,960 Speaker 9: about some of these concerns that you raise. It's always 385 00:18:56,960 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 9: the case that wealth, income, and consumer or distributed unequally. 386 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:03,679 Speaker 9: I don't think the current environment is that unique in 387 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:04,280 Speaker 9: that respect. 388 00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:09,359 Speaker 2: David on a sleepy ninety degree day in Washington, where 389 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:13,000 Speaker 2: everyone's focused on the President of the United States, the 390 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:18,119 Speaker 2: NATO meetings, the Red Sox ascendant over the Yankees, David, 391 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:20,600 Speaker 2: is this a time for poll to drop a bombshell 392 00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:25,639 Speaker 2: in this testimony, to really signal a shift in the 393 00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:27,320 Speaker 2: vectors they see out there. 394 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:30,399 Speaker 9: I don't think so. I think it's a time for 395 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:32,919 Speaker 9: him to repeat what he said last week, which is 396 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:36,000 Speaker 9: that you know they are making progress on inflation, that 397 00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:38,119 Speaker 9: they you know that he worries, as I worry, that 398 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:42,480 Speaker 9: any further deterioration in the labor market could raise unemployment 399 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 9: more meaningfully, and that that would be a shame and unnecessary, 400 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:48,400 Speaker 9: and you know that as if you kind of read 401 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,520 Speaker 9: between the lines that as a result, as I interpret it, 402 00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:53,760 Speaker 9: he sounds maybe a little bit more ready to cut 403 00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:56,040 Speaker 9: then at least some people on the FMC. That's what 404 00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:58,119 Speaker 9: he said last week. That's what I would look for 405 00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:01,200 Speaker 9: this week. Nothing definitive because there's still a lot of 406 00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:01,879 Speaker 9: data before. 407 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:04,320 Speaker 2: That's temper met David Miracle, thank you so much. With 408 00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:16,919 Speaker 2: gold and Sacks working for the young outzers. Dare you 409 00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:19,760 Speaker 2: look at the front page is a Lisa Matteo our Lisa. 410 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:20,480 Speaker 2: What do you have today? 411 00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:20,919 Speaker 3: All right? 412 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:22,960 Speaker 8: We're talking about the Silicon Slopes. 413 00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:24,840 Speaker 10: This is in the Wall Street Journal because of the 414 00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:27,320 Speaker 10: hot job market. There's a housing boom there now, and 415 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:29,520 Speaker 10: the Wall Street Journal is saying tech workers they're buying upon. 416 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:32,360 Speaker 8: This is draper Utah. Have you ever your skiing guy? 417 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:34,719 Speaker 5: Yes, this is out there like Park Park City, well, 418 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:37,359 Speaker 5: it's it's it's not park City, but it's that too far. 419 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:38,960 Speaker 7: Yeah, Wall satch Men's Okay. 420 00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:40,960 Speaker 10: So it has like a lot of open space, trails, 421 00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 10: park skiing, top schools, which is good for families, and 422 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:47,760 Speaker 10: it's not far from companies like Adobe, and it's really grown. 423 00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:51,320 Speaker 10: But this also means that home prices are also exploding there. 424 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,200 Speaker 10: I mean, the priceiest listing about ten thousand square feet 425 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:57,040 Speaker 10: you can pay about seven point three three million dollars. 426 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:00,760 Speaker 10: But the insurance experts are saying, just be careful because 427 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,679 Speaker 10: of wildfires landslides that can be an issue, So just 428 00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:05,840 Speaker 10: check where the house is insurance. 429 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:06,160 Speaker 2: Yeah. 430 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:10,560 Speaker 5: Yeah, Now, Golden Sacks put a big, big, big facility 431 00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:13,040 Speaker 5: out there, I'm gonna say ten years ago, and they 432 00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 5: have a lot of their tech people out there. So 433 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,399 Speaker 5: and that's I know some young folks recently that I 434 00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 5: know that recently took jobs out But isn't the. 435 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:22,280 Speaker 2: Heart of this debate that now it's just the elites 436 00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:24,040 Speaker 2: buying everything's all cash? 437 00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:25,359 Speaker 7: Right? Well, I don't know. 438 00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:27,440 Speaker 5: I mean, I think there's there's a lot of job 439 00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:29,359 Speaker 5: creation out there, so I think a lot of workers 440 00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:31,920 Speaker 5: are going out there, But where are they coming from? 441 00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:35,840 Speaker 7: A lot of from California, right right, and then relocated next. 442 00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:39,200 Speaker 10: Okay, a US city has made the top ten list 443 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 10: of the world's best airports for twenty twenty four. 444 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:43,720 Speaker 8: All right, this is from air Help. 445 00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:47,040 Speaker 10: They looked at like on time performance, customer feedback, quality 446 00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:51,920 Speaker 10: of food shopping, coming in number one, Hamad International Airport 447 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:55,480 Speaker 10: and Cutter number two, Cape Town International Airport, South Africa. 448 00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:58,080 Speaker 8: Number three Chubu CenTra. 449 00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:01,359 Speaker 10: Air International Airport in Japan. But the real surprise was 450 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:03,760 Speaker 10: that the US actually made that top ten list. We're 451 00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:06,639 Speaker 10: talking about Utah, right, So this is Salt Lake City 452 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:07,680 Speaker 10: International Airport. 453 00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:08,360 Speaker 2: You've been there. 454 00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:09,800 Speaker 7: I mean, it came into the eighth. 455 00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:13,240 Speaker 10: Worldwide, first in the US, and so it's been making 456 00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:17,200 Speaker 10: these different kind of upgrades. It's last phase completed this fall. 457 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:19,600 Speaker 10: But it just goes to show that US airport's starting 458 00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:20,320 Speaker 10: to get some attention. 459 00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:21,960 Speaker 2: It's a bit, it's a big, a big deal. Like 460 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:24,960 Speaker 2: Kansas City built a new airport that they feel is 461 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:28,000 Speaker 2: vital for their growth, and I believe Kansas City is 462 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 2: basically booming. And then we see it here. 463 00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:32,639 Speaker 5: I mean, you've talked about Terminal A at Newark and. 464 00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:37,080 Speaker 2: And LaGuardia can I say it's been transformed, I'd say 465 00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:38,320 Speaker 2: it's almost transformed. 466 00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:40,560 Speaker 7: It's like, yeah, it's a huge up grade for the. 467 00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:43,359 Speaker 2: Huge up grade, and it's gone. Why can't we do 468 00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:46,359 Speaker 2: this with trains? That's what I don't get White. 469 00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:49,000 Speaker 7: They're trying, they're trying it. 470 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:51,159 Speaker 2: I'm going to train in Switzerland and I'm going I 471 00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:51,760 Speaker 2: don't get it. 472 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 7: You want to see that. You want to see Switzerland, 473 00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:55,440 Speaker 7: Go to Hobok in New Jersey. 474 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:57,720 Speaker 5: That train station is very reminiscent of some of these 475 00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 5: European open air train stations. You can it's just it's 476 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:04,440 Speaker 5: really cool. Again, if anybody's in that part of the world, 477 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:06,520 Speaker 5: good ship the Hoboken train station. 478 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 2: Next. 479 00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,280 Speaker 8: All right, this one actually stood out to me. 480 00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:15,520 Speaker 10: So this from Bloomberg Bloomberg Law. The rich they want 481 00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:18,400 Speaker 10: to make their wealth immortal, so as state attorneys, they're 482 00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,800 Speaker 10: creating trusts that are aimed at extending the wealth until people. 483 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:26,040 Speaker 10: This is because they're getting cryologically pervert preserved so they. 484 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,640 Speaker 8: Can be revived even if it's hundreds of years later. 485 00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:32,080 Speaker 8: So it's revival trusts. This is the new thing. It's 486 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:34,320 Speaker 8: an emerging area of law. There have to deal. 487 00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:37,760 Speaker 10: They're starting to deal with it, because cryogenic preservation is 488 00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:38,159 Speaker 10: a big. 489 00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:40,400 Speaker 8: Freezing yourself. 490 00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:43,280 Speaker 2: You're freezing your stock portfolio or yourself. 491 00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:45,119 Speaker 8: You're freezing yourself. 492 00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:47,760 Speaker 10: But they're wondering what happens to that, you know, stock 493 00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:50,040 Speaker 10: portfolio after you're revived and come back. 494 00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:51,480 Speaker 5: So when I come back and like a one hundred years, 495 00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:54,840 Speaker 5: I want to have my cash there with me exactly. 496 00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:57,240 Speaker 10: But there's a lot of questions behind it, like can 497 00:23:57,320 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 10: the money live in definitely? Are you dead if you're 498 00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,200 Speaker 10: by is cryologically preserved? 499 00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:05,760 Speaker 8: Are you considered revived if you only might have like 500 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:06,359 Speaker 8: your brain? 501 00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:08,560 Speaker 2: Is the proof they can do that? And the answer 502 00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:08,880 Speaker 2: is no. 503 00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:12,480 Speaker 10: It's it's it's tough, and there's only there's a place 504 00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:15,560 Speaker 10: in Arizona. I'm going through this here that has about 505 00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 10: about one hundred people frozen right now. 506 00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:23,720 Speaker 2: It was just yeah, I'm have very strong opinions about 507 00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:27,600 Speaker 2: that and my hero and I don't I don't know 508 00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:29,560 Speaker 2: what the details are. That was twelve years ago. 509 00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,360 Speaker 8: Yes, yeah, but it's what happens to your money. 510 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,720 Speaker 7: So it's not going to my kids, which I don't. 511 00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:37,080 Speaker 2: I mean, it's not a perpetuite. 512 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:41,080 Speaker 8: This is just besides, this is what the world is listening. 513 00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:42,760 Speaker 2: To it's just like what happens when Lisa is a 514 00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:43,840 Speaker 2: ninety degree heat. 515 00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:47,040 Speaker 10: Next and finally, this might come as a shocker, but 516 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:50,080 Speaker 10: McDonald's customers, they're not looking for the healthier options. 517 00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:51,800 Speaker 8: Okay, it was a recent conference. 518 00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,359 Speaker 10: They said that they're meatless burgers. You know, the mcclant 519 00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:57,320 Speaker 10: burger didn't do well salads. 520 00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:59,720 Speaker 8: They might bring them back. I didn't even realize they 521 00:24:59,720 --> 00:24:59,959 Speaker 8: were going. 522 00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:02,560 Speaker 3: I guess I haven't been to McDonald's in. 523 00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,119 Speaker 10: A while, but they dissed them in twenty twenty, so 524 00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:06,200 Speaker 10: they might come back. 525 00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 7: Most of the last time you ate. 526 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:12,520 Speaker 2: A couple of months ago we did this. You said 527 00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:14,560 Speaker 2: you've actually had a salad at McDonald's. 528 00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:16,480 Speaker 8: I did, and that was the only thing I used to. 529 00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,840 Speaker 5: Get You had a burger at McDonald's or anything like 530 00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:21,720 Speaker 5: or Burger King or any of the others. 531 00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:25,120 Speaker 2: I don't know, Monday or is it Sunday? 532 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:26,240 Speaker 7: Yeah, exactly. 533 00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:30,280 Speaker 10: But their chicken is more popular. Actually, it's just as 534 00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:32,560 Speaker 10: popular as their beef. So the chicken and their coffee, 535 00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:33,399 Speaker 10: those are like the two. 536 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:36,560 Speaker 2: I know. You bring up a good point. Here, let 537 00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:38,399 Speaker 2: me do it, and folks, I'm doing this math quickly. 538 00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:41,280 Speaker 2: Here you can do that in the Bloomberg Professional Service 539 00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:45,359 Speaker 2: in the last ten years. I'm enjoying McDonald's, even with 540 00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:49,560 Speaker 2: a recent pullback thirteen point four percent per year, which 541 00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:50,920 Speaker 2: is better than nice. 542 00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:51,720 Speaker 7: Better than nice? 543 00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:52,399 Speaker 2: Is it Apple? 544 00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:52,639 Speaker 3: No? 545 00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:55,879 Speaker 2: Is it magnificent seven? No? But guess what, it's pretty 546 00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:58,040 Speaker 2: much a straight line. Yeah. 547 00:25:58,080 --> 00:25:59,760 Speaker 7: I mean, I mean, we're a business going. It's not 548 00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:01,720 Speaker 7: the anywhere they're doing fine. I mean, even with. 549 00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:04,560 Speaker 5: The weight loss drugs, that was the call that people 550 00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:06,720 Speaker 5: aren't going to, you know, go to fast food, eat 551 00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,600 Speaker 5: packaged foods. I don't know if that's the thing. I mean, 552 00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,399 Speaker 5: I'm looking at the FA function for McDonald's. The streets 553 00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,040 Speaker 5: got got a mid single digit revenue growth as far 554 00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:16,440 Speaker 5: as I can see for this company. 555 00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,280 Speaker 2: You know, I just got an email from Sparta. They're talking. 556 00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:21,560 Speaker 2: The senior manager was in a meeting. Of course, they 557 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:23,679 Speaker 2: get the radio line while they're in the meeting. Of 558 00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:26,280 Speaker 2: course they're having a debate on whether they should freeze 559 00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:27,880 Speaker 2: me exactly. 560 00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:31,080 Speaker 7: Well, I think they got to pay you wire frozen. 561 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:35,800 Speaker 2: That's what That's what missus Kean said when thank you, 562 00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:38,800 Speaker 2: I guess thank you. That is the newspapers with Lisa 563 00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:43,119 Speaker 2: Mattel This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the 564 00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:47,880 Speaker 2: best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can 565 00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:51,600 Speaker 2: also watch the show live on YouTube. 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