Speaker 1: Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of
Speaker 1: the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. Week one is pretty
Speaker 1: wild and as we do every year, we learned a
Speaker 1: ton mostly don't ever bet against the Chiefs because it's
Speaker 1: going to give you a sick feeling watching the game,
Speaker 1: regardless of how it's going. Now, this is our Thursday show,
Speaker 1: so as we're gonna do every week, we'll talk about
Speaker 1: some of our best bets, either against the spread or
Speaker 1: over unders. We'll give you a bet to avoid, and
Speaker 1: then we're going to give you our favorite player prop
Speaker 1: bet for the week. And with me today to break
Speaker 1: it all down is Andrew Cayley, a senior publishing editor
Speaker 1: at Covers. Andrew runs the gamut in terms of sports
Speaker 1: betting advice, including the NBA, MLB, PGA, and of course
Speaker 1: the NFL, and you can find him on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Covers Underscore. Kaylee, Andrew, how's it going, man?
Speaker 2: It's going really well? Really excited to be here.
Speaker 1: Am I the first person to pronounce your name correctly.
Speaker 2: In this season? I believe?
Speaker 3: So?
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, that's good because I try. I'm like a
Speaker 1: stickler about pronunciation. So all right, I'll just pull the
Speaker 1: curtain back a little bit. I asked you like four
Speaker 1: times right before we got on you I did. I
Speaker 1: mean it's bad. By the way, Andrew's name is spelled
Speaker 1: c a l e y, So when you're at his
Speaker 1: Twitter and at covers underscore c A L E why.
Speaker 1: I like to pretend I'm smarter than I am. But
Speaker 1: in the end, I've got to give it up. I
Speaker 1: was ready for CALLI, but I like to clean it
Speaker 1: up right before we go. All right, all right, are
Speaker 1: you ready? Are you ready to dive into week two?
Speaker 2: I'm ready? All right.
Speaker 1: As always, we're going to get started with pick six,
Speaker 1: where both Andrew and I are going to give three
Speaker 1: of our favorite bets for this weekend, either against the
Speaker 1: spread or on the over under. Now do you get that, Andrew?
Speaker 1: I mean it's picked six because we're making six. I
Speaker 1: would take credit for it, but it was actually made
Speaker 1: by our last guest Ian McMillan. I want to give
Speaker 1: him credit. But as always, I'm going to note at
Speaker 1: the outset that we are recording this shortly before kickoff
Speaker 1: of the Thursday night game. So we are not going
Speaker 1: to be making any picks on the Panthers Bucks game.
Speaker 1: But if you want to see how I picked that game,
Speaker 1: you can go to bettingpros dot com. That's going to
Speaker 1: show you how I and basically every betting expert who
Speaker 1: makes picks on that site made their picks for every
Speaker 1: single game. We're also going to be using the bettingpros
Speaker 1: dot com consensus odds and making our picks. Those are
Speaker 1: the aggregate odds that you'll find available in the market.
Speaker 1: All right, Andrew, let's get it started. Who is your
Speaker 1: first pick?
Speaker 3: My first pick is my favorite pick of the week,
Speaker 3: even though I just am looking at your consensus odds
Speaker 3: here and I see they've moved to minus three and
Speaker 3: a half as opposed to minus three. But there's a
Speaker 3: couple of threes out there, and that's the Titans this
Speaker 3: week as they host the Colts.
Speaker 2: I really really.
Speaker 3: Liked the Titans last week. They shocked a lot of people.
Speaker 3: They derailed that Brian Brown's hype trained pretty quickly. But
Speaker 3: one of the hardest things to do when betting football,
Speaker 3: especially early in the season, is not to overreact to
Speaker 3: things we've just seen. But that said, the Titans looked
Speaker 3: really good. They were balanced on offense, they were stout
Speaker 3: on defense, caused turnovers. It was just really in persons,
Speaker 3: impressive overall. And now there's no Andrew Luck for the Colts,
Speaker 3: and he owned the Titans. But when Tennessee played the
Speaker 3: Colts without Andrew Luck, they went two to zero straight
Speaker 3: up and against the spread. In twenty seventeen, that's when
Speaker 3: Brissett was starting for one of those ailments Luck ailments.
Speaker 3: I forget which one exactly it was, but he was
Speaker 3: not playing and they did well in those games. I
Speaker 3: know the Colts offensive line and the defensive line and
Speaker 3: offensive line and defense are much better now, but I
Speaker 3: think that's not gonna be enough to cover the number
Speaker 3: on the road. I think the Titans are going to
Speaker 3: sell out to stop Marlin mack here. He had a
Speaker 3: pretty big week one. But they've got a really solid secondary.
Speaker 3: So if they sell out to stop Mac, then they
Speaker 3: can rely on those guys on the back end to
Speaker 3: limit Persett and what he can do. And the key
Speaker 3: for the Titans on offense I think is gonna be
Speaker 3: Delaney Walker. He's fully healthy and it showed last week.
Speaker 3: He hauled in two touchdowns, so I like that a
Speaker 3: lot of him a lot, and have him in a
Speaker 3: lot of DFS lineups this week, so I'm excited about that.
Speaker 3: And the Colts were one of the worst teams in
Speaker 3: the NFL last year when it came to defending ten ends,
Speaker 3: so I can see him having a big impact in
Speaker 3: this game. I like the Titans by minus three and
Speaker 3: a half now.
Speaker 1: And you're okay with that half point move, then.
Speaker 2: I like I did.
Speaker 3: I saw that earlier when I was when I was
Speaker 3: looking doing some more research here that it moved.
Speaker 2: I personally have a three.
Speaker 3: It makes me a little uncomfortable, but but I'm still
Speaker 3: confident in saying the Titans, little Titans will win this
Speaker 3: by by at least four points.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: One of the things that we do at bettingpros dot
Speaker 1: com is in taking the aggregate consensus odds, we show
Speaker 1: you the odds that are available in a bunch of
Speaker 1: in a bunch of sports books. So while three and
Speaker 1: a half is the aggregate line, FanDuel is still offering
Speaker 1: it at minus three, as is points bet. So in
Speaker 1: the end, you can shop around a little bit and
Speaker 1: get the best line you want. But you're saying regardless,
Speaker 1: you still you feel a little less comfortable, but you're
Speaker 1: still good with it. You're still good with it at
Speaker 1: three and a half.
Speaker 3: I'm still good with a three and a half. But if
Speaker 3: you can find the three out there, jump on it
Speaker 3: as soon as you can.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, sixty five percent of experts. I don't
Speaker 1: want to. I don't want to get you upset. We're
Speaker 1: gonna start off on like a really fun you know,
Speaker 1: you and I are getting along, but sixty five percent
Speaker 1: of experts on this one are backing the colts with
Speaker 1: that's so you know we're gonna have to We're gonna
Speaker 1: have to see about that. That's obviously not always indicative necessarily.
Speaker 2: Will mark it down.
Speaker 1: We'll mark it down. Well, remember you and I'll talk
Speaker 1: after this, no problem. Well, look, last week I did
Speaker 1: all spreads because I just couldn't find enough over unders
Speaker 1: that I really liked. But one of my picks actually,
Speaker 1: and it works that it goes here right directly from yours,
Speaker 1: is I actually like the Titan and Cult game to
Speaker 1: come under forty four and a half. So I know
Speaker 1: both teams scored a lot last week. Of course I
Speaker 1: don't really see that happening here. I mean, the Titans
Speaker 1: scored forty three points last week, but they had twelve
Speaker 1: at halftime, and then Mayfield through the three interceptions on
Speaker 1: consecutive drives in the second half. The Titans scored twenty
Speaker 1: one points in the fourth quarter and they had a
Speaker 1: pick six. So I kind of think that we can
Speaker 1: throw that out for the most part, and I don't now,
Speaker 1: And I really have never had much faith in the
Speaker 1: Tennessee offense. I'm not a buyer into Marcus Mariota. I
Speaker 1: don't think they want to be an explosive offense right. Conversely,
Speaker 1: I do have faith in their defense. They had a
Speaker 1: great pass roster last week against the Browns, they had
Speaker 1: five sacks. The secondary is more than adequate. I have
Speaker 1: faith in Mike frabl I like GMPS. Then you look
Speaker 1: at the Colts. I preached a bit in the preseason
Speaker 1: that I didn't expect the Colts offense to drop off
Speaker 1: into the Abyss. I think Jacoby Brissett is more than
Speaker 1: capable here. They have a great offensive line, They've got
Speaker 1: enough playmakers to be dangerous, But realistically, I don't think
Speaker 1: they're the type of offense that's going to be able
Speaker 1: to put up a ton of points consistently, even though
Speaker 1: they did get to twenty four last week against a
Speaker 1: solid Chargers defense. Now, their defense struggled last week right
Speaker 1: against the Chargers, but they did sack Rivers four times,
Speaker 1: they had two takeaways, and the Browns were able to
Speaker 1: get a lot of pressure on Mariota they had four
Speaker 1: sacks as well. So look, this is a similar defense
Speaker 1: to last year. The Titans scored twenty seven points combined
Speaker 1: against the Colts in both matchups. I think it's going
Speaker 1: to be a tight, low scoring game, so I'm going
Speaker 1: to take the under here for what it's worth. I
Speaker 1: checked just you know what I like to do, and
Speaker 1: I explained it last week is when I have a
Speaker 1: feeling about a game, I like to just check how
Speaker 1: the money is coming in on it, necessarily if there's
Speaker 1: any difference, right exactly now, I didn't really see any
Speaker 1: difference here with the smart money, but roughly ninety five
Speaker 1: percent of the money last time I checked was generally coming
Speaker 1: in on the under. Now that does far outweigh the
Speaker 1: number of bets. It doesn't. It's not there are there
Speaker 1: are markers that you know for me, when I look
Speaker 1: at something, you can tell, right when it's when it's
Speaker 1: really sharp, I can't necessarily tell that this is what
Speaker 1: it is, but that the amount of money coming in
Speaker 1: does outweigh the number of bets that are coming in,
Speaker 1: although again it is on the under, so for me
Speaker 1: that that is at least a small signal that the
Speaker 1: under is popular by sharp betters. And again it's one
Speaker 1: of these things. I think it's gonna be close, and realistically,
Speaker 1: I was a little nervous about this game. I get
Speaker 1: nervous on Division games, man. I mean, I get it,
Speaker 1: you know, but these teams know each other pretty well.
Speaker 1: Of course it's not Andrew Luck, but I do think
Speaker 1: it's gonna be hard fought, and I think it's gonna
Speaker 1: be defensive. So I three and a half or three
Speaker 1: that might have been one actually, which I could have
Speaker 1: listed as the one to avoid. I'm not gonna do
Speaker 1: it right now because it's up there. Yeah, I get it,
Speaker 1: you know, I'm just trying to, you know, get your
Speaker 1: going over here.
Speaker 2: But oh it's good. It's you're doing a good job.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Are you mad?
Speaker 2: Now?
Speaker 1: Are you ready to go? And just kind of be
Speaker 1: like it's gonna come. It's gonna be a sixty point game.
Speaker 1: What are you talking about?
Speaker 3: It's funny because I didn't I specifically didn't put Mariota
Speaker 3: in my notes because he's very polarizing, and you had
Speaker 3: to go talk about Mariota.
Speaker 2: I I am a.
Speaker 1: Cornerback of a team that I'm saying is gonna come under.
Speaker 1: It's hard to avoid him.
Speaker 3: He's I have been a Mariota apologist for a long time,
Speaker 3: so I was really excited to see his I know,
Speaker 3: as a lot of those yards came from that one
Speaker 3: pretty incredible Henry run last week or catch and run.
Speaker 3: But I still hold a little hope that he's not
Speaker 3: going to be a bust.
Speaker 1: Well. Look, I think the one thing that we can
Speaker 1: all agree at least about Mariota is he doesn't have
Speaker 1: mono nucleosis and is going to be out for three weeks.
Speaker 1: Like the quarterback of my favorite team, Sam Barl of
Speaker 1: the Jets. It's a rough exist. I just man, it's
Speaker 1: not my fault. I'm from Queen's Jets and Matt's I'm
Speaker 1: going to live and die with them. So I'm a
Speaker 1: pretty miserable human being as you might imagine. All right,
Speaker 1: let's get to your second pick. What do you got
Speaker 1: for me.
Speaker 3: My second pick here is the Chiefs and Raiders over
Speaker 3: fifty three and a half. You just said he didn't
Speaker 3: do any totals this week, so I'm glad we get
Speaker 3: to jump into them.
Speaker 2: Now. What can I say? I don't know. It's Anon
Speaker 2: you mentioned it. The Chiefs.
Speaker 3: The Chiefs are gonna give people headaches of the same
Speaker 3: Chiefs as they were last year. They lost Tyreek Hill
Speaker 3: in the second series. I think it was they still
Speaker 3: put up a forty burger on the Jags d and
Speaker 3: if the Jags are gonna give up forty points, what
Speaker 3: are the Raiders gonna do.
Speaker 2: I'm not worried about Hill being out at all.
Speaker 3: Sam Waukins obviously stepped up big last week, incredible game,
Speaker 3: and they still have Travis Kelcey. Of course, for me,
Speaker 3: Tyreek Hill is more like a luxury than a necessity
Speaker 3: for the Chiefs. He's great to have, sure, but this
Speaker 3: offense is all about Mahomes and he's the type of
Speaker 3: guy who makes everyone around him better. I mean, look
Speaker 3: at Damian Williams. He was an afterthought prior to this
Speaker 3: season for the most part, like and now he's a
Speaker 3: guy you have to have in all of your fantasy
Speaker 3: lineups like He's just that's how good Mahomes is. As
Speaker 3: for the Raiders with ab Gone, Last Gone, they looked
Speaker 3: focused on Monday Night and it was David Carr was
Speaker 3: very efficient, which is a little shocking. He was against
Speaker 3: a good Broncos D. They didn't play well, obviously, but
Speaker 3: the key for the Raiders for me is if that
Speaker 3: O line can give cart time and can keep him upright,
Speaker 3: he's gonna hit receivers and I think he's gonna be
Speaker 3: able to do that this week against the Chiefs.
Speaker 2: He's getting some.
Speaker 3: Help now too with Josh Jacobs in the backfield and
Speaker 3: they're going against the Chiefs D. That allowed a rookie
Speaker 3: in Gardner Minshew, who I'm a big fan of.
Speaker 1: By the way, go was are you actually? Are you
Speaker 1: the one? You're one?
Speaker 2: I love Gardner Minshew.
Speaker 3: I love I don't know if it's just like the
Speaker 3: cult following or whatever, but I honestly don't think he's
Speaker 3: that much of a drop off from Nick Foles. I
Speaker 3: know that might be that might be sacrileged to some
Speaker 3: people in Philly, but I just he's he's a talented
Speaker 3: passer and he went twenty two for twenty five for
Speaker 3: tw hundred and seventy five yards and two scores.
Speaker 2: It is NFL debut, Come you off the bench, Like.
Speaker 1: I get it. And it's hard to know whether or not,
Speaker 1: but I think the point essentially that you're making really
Speaker 1: is it speaks volumes as to the Chiefs defense.
Speaker 2: Or the lack of chief the lack of defense.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think that, Look, this is the highest
Speaker 1: over under of the week, I mean, higher than the
Speaker 1: Rams and the Saints. Okay, so which I also like.
Speaker 1: By the way, you like the over on that one too.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna hold you as one of your three,
Speaker 1: but that was one one that you'd like to as well.
Speaker 1: All right, all right, well, I look this is this
Speaker 1: is I don't think you're going out on a limb here.
Speaker 1: I agree. I mean, the thing about the Chiefs is
Speaker 1: that it's just we're I agree, he'll I mean, he
Speaker 1: adds something, of course, without it, very talent, without a doubt,
Speaker 1: without that, he's a great receiver. But I don't think
Speaker 1: that it's going to have that much of an impact
Speaker 1: on how much they're going to be able to score,
Speaker 1: as they showed last week where he missed the majority
Speaker 1: of the game, and Travis Kelsey wasn't even involved last week,
Speaker 1: so they can do it in a number of ways.
Speaker 1: And the Raiders looked kind of competent on right. Absolutely
Speaker 1: very strange, not expecting. I mean, betters are are totally
Speaker 1: agreeing with you here. The vast majority of the money
Speaker 1: is on the over.
Speaker 3: It's a bit of a it's a bit of a
Speaker 3: square play. I would say it's a square play, but
Speaker 3: I don't. I think winning money money.
Speaker 1: You don't apologize. You don't apologize for anything. You're like, well,
Speaker 1: I don't know, buddy, you take it to the bank
Speaker 1: if you've got one. I agree with you. I agree
Speaker 1: with you here totally. I'm gonna I'm gonna bring back
Speaker 1: now into being you know, on the same page. I
Speaker 1: totally agree with you on this one. I do think
Speaker 1: it's going to go over. I don't think I would
Speaker 1: ever bet under on a Chiefs gal like, I don't
Speaker 1: know what line they'd have to set because it's such
Speaker 1: an uncomfortable feeling whenever Mahomes is there.
Speaker 3: You know, I remember talking about it last year when
Speaker 3: they were supposed to play that game in Mexico City,
Speaker 3: and we were just talking around the office wondering what
Speaker 3: they were going to set the lineup, and we would
Speaker 3: just figured it'd have to be almost seventy and it
Speaker 3: still might not be enough.
Speaker 2: It's crazy. It's crazy what the Chiefs are doing.
Speaker 1: I know. And there again because the Raiders looked relatively
Speaker 1: competent on offense. I mean, I would not be concerned here,
Speaker 1: Landil Overner. So over fifty three and a half, that's
Speaker 1: a good one. All right, I'll get to my next one,
Speaker 1: and that I'm going to take the bills laying one
Speaker 1: and a half to the Giants. So let's start here.
Speaker 1: Let's start here with the Giants. Okay, the Giants are
Speaker 1: a terrible football team. My analysis of this game has
Speaker 1: now concluded, Andrews.
Speaker 2: So there's nothing to do with your gensation whatsoever.
Speaker 1: I mean, Okay, it's the Giants defense is really what
Speaker 1: is truly terrible here. Okay, Janora Shenkins, he's still solid. Okay,
Speaker 1: I'll give him that, But he is the only remotely
Speaker 1: reliable cornerback on that entire roster right now. They blew
Speaker 1: a ton of coverages against Dallas last week. They have
Speaker 1: absolutely no pass rush. They hit Prescott twice last week,
Speaker 1: even though they blitzed about forty percent of the time.
Speaker 1: I don't think they have any real ability to stop
Speaker 1: a cohesive offense in my opinion all right now, whether
Speaker 1: the Bills have a cohesive offense, that's a fair question,
Speaker 1: and it's why the spread is at one and a half.
Speaker 1: But I watched the Bills Jets game closely last week.
Speaker 1: As I told you, I'm a Jets fan, and even
Speaker 1: though it was partly because the Jets were without CJ.
Speaker 1: Moseley in the second half, I think the Bills figured
Speaker 1: a few things out, which is why I think they
Speaker 1: were able to move the ball better. I expect Devin
Speaker 1: Singletary to have a much bigger role here, regardless of
Speaker 1: if Frank Orr gets the start. I love John Brown,
Speaker 1: who looks healthy and strong. Josh Allen has a great
Speaker 1: rushing ability. I think he sort of calmed down. I
Speaker 1: know he's still inaccurate, but he kind of got it
Speaker 1: on there. I mean, he's never going to be the
Speaker 1: most accurate guy, but he got it under control. I
Speaker 1: think the Bills are going to be able to put
Speaker 1: up points here and I'm really not confident that the
Speaker 1: Giants will do much. And that's particularly with Sterling Shepard,
Speaker 1: who is still in the concussion protocol. As of today,
Speaker 1: he miss practice. I believe he's still in the concussion
Speaker 1: protocol at least miss practice, so he may miss this game.
Speaker 1: I like the Bills defense. They had four sacks last week,
Speaker 1: they had five quarterback hits, nine tackles for a loss,
Speaker 1: and we know about Tredevius White being one of the
Speaker 1: better quarterbacks in the league. I think they can probably
Speaker 1: put Jordan Poyer on Evan Ingram. I don't expect to
Speaker 1: blow it here, okay, but one and a half is
Speaker 1: completely irrelevant. I talked about it on Monday about you know,
Speaker 1: the switch. If it was the Giants one and a half,
Speaker 1: it would essentially be the same thing because you're under
Speaker 1: those key numbers. It really doesn't make a difference. I
Speaker 1: do expect the Bills to win here, so I am
Speaker 1: going to take them laying a point and a half.
Speaker 3: You're not worried at all about how they weren't able
Speaker 3: to run the ball very well or they were able
Speaker 3: to stuff Dallas's run game of the week before. I
Speaker 3: mean that does that concern you at all? Only two
Speaker 3: nine six yards percarry last week?
Speaker 1: Are you asking me if I'm worried about the Giants defense.
Speaker 1: Is that what you're asking?
Speaker 2: I mean, I just I'm just Devil's advocate. I like it.
Speaker 1: I like you. I like you trying to stare the
Speaker 1: pop man. It's okay. No, I in no way am
Speaker 1: I concerned about the Giants. The Giants rush. Look, Dallas
Speaker 1: did whatever they wanted, and I love Dallas. I mean,
Speaker 1: I think their offense is going to be really great
Speaker 1: right now with Kellen Moore sort of figuring things up.
Speaker 2: It's an offense to watch.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it really is. And but you know, I really
Speaker 1: think here, I again, I don't expect this to be
Speaker 1: a blowout, but you know, some of it is that
Speaker 1: it's like, well, it's the Bill's second road game in
Speaker 1: a row. It's a second road game, but it's in
Speaker 1: the same place, and it's in New York, and they're
Speaker 1: they're from Buffalo. I went to school in Buffalo. I
Speaker 1: grew up in the Dorphen. It's an easy trip. It's
Speaker 1: not a big deal. I really don't think that's going
Speaker 1: to be a big deal. So for me picking against
Speaker 1: the Giants, at least at the early going, I'm happy
Speaker 1: to do that. So for me, Bill's laying one and
Speaker 1: a half. All right, let's get to your final pick.
Speaker 1: What do you got?
Speaker 3: My final pick, which is funny you mentioned this is
Speaker 3: is the Cowboys at minus five and a half and
Speaker 3: which is now minus six.
Speaker 1: It's been moving, by the way. It was four and
Speaker 1: a half when we first talked about it.
Speaker 3: It was four and a half, and it was five
Speaker 3: and a half, and then it was down to five
Speaker 3: again earlier this morning, and now it's up to six.
Speaker 3: So I'm happy taking this line almost at anything under
Speaker 3: a touchdown, those between four and a half and five
Speaker 3: and a half six, that's almost It's kind of like
Speaker 3: that one and a half, like it doesn't matter. But
Speaker 3: this seems like this seems like an overreaction line to me.
Speaker 3: The Cowboys should be more like a touchdown favorite. I
Speaker 3: think this is in response to Washington who played one
Speaker 3: good half of football.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, does that bother you at all? Because
Speaker 1: they did look surprisingly good? Or were they have twenty seven?
Speaker 2: I think it was to me?
Speaker 3: That was for me, it was all about the Eagles
Speaker 3: just being hyped up for their home opener and just
Speaker 3: like kind of coming out.
Speaker 2: A little flat.
Speaker 3: It was all about the Eagles for me. In that case,
Speaker 3: and I was I was a little shocked. I will
Speaker 3: say I was a little shocked that Keenum was able
Speaker 3: to throw as well as he was at points in
Speaker 3: that game. But they almost got shut out in the
Speaker 3: second half and he racked. Keenum racked up a lot
Speaker 3: of yards on that final drive, which meant nothing. So
Speaker 3: I think there's something to be said there Cowboys. Like
Speaker 3: you said, the Cowboys looked good last week against the Giants,
Speaker 3: they I guess, I guess you say they limited Saquon
Speaker 3: as much as anyone can hope to sort of thing like.
Speaker 1: I was that they blew him out so much that
Speaker 1: they couldn't run.
Speaker 2: With them exactly though, But that's the thing.
Speaker 3: They they were good enough that which is going to
Speaker 3: be a problem for Saquon for a long time. I
Speaker 3: think that he can't be a productive part of the
Speaker 3: game plan if they're down by so much all the time.
Speaker 3: So Dak look awesome. He's not still not worth forty
Speaker 3: million dollars a season, but he still looks awesome. I
Speaker 3: think this is another week for Zeke to kind of
Speaker 3: get his football legs back under them. Yeah, So, I
Speaker 3: just don't see that Washington has much of a chance here,
Speaker 3: they're gonna put up some yards. Their defense, on the
Speaker 3: other hand, especially in the second half, looked like moving
Speaker 3: around in the secondary looked so slow. I couldn't I
Speaker 3: couldn't imagine how slow they looked.
Speaker 2: It was. It was. It was a weird thing to watch.
Speaker 2: So I'm taking the Cowboys at anything less than a touchdown.
Speaker 1: I am in one agreement with you. Anything less than
Speaker 1: touch on it, I'm fine with. I was really shocked
Speaker 1: the line when it opens seemed like it was begging
Speaker 1: people to take the Cowboys, which always makes me worry,
Speaker 1: right because they know something we don't. Okay, something's going
Speaker 1: on here that we don't. The line has moved, I don't.
Speaker 1: I think it was pretty well known that Darius Skys
Speaker 1: would be out for the game, regardless he's he's now
Speaker 1: out six to eight weeks. I mean, look, he looked.
Speaker 1: He looked great for the first you know, several games
Speaker 1: of last year he did before tapering off. But either way,
Speaker 1: I agree, I don't buy this Redskins offense, at least
Speaker 1: what they showed in the beginning. I certainly don't buy
Speaker 1: the defense.
Speaker 2: Although I took some good players they.
Speaker 1: They I think I undersold them a little bit coming
Speaker 1: into the season. They they I took a deeper dive
Speaker 1: into them, and they are better than what I expect.
Speaker 1: A lot of it, honestly is that I think these
Speaker 1: skies the limit for the Cowboys is here. I am
Speaker 1: really all in on the offense. I mean, well, the
Speaker 1: Giants are terrible again, so what we'll have to really see.
Speaker 1: I'm just I don't want to draw too many conclusions
Speaker 1: from one game against like a really terrible defense. But
Speaker 1: I do think that Kellen Moore seemed creative. They let
Speaker 1: Dak throw deeper than he usually does. I think Gallup
Speaker 1: is taking the next step. I do expect Dallas to
Speaker 1: win handle it. It always makes me a little nervous,
Speaker 1: as we talked about with the Titans Cults taking a
Speaker 1: divisional game, just because these teams know each other incredibly well.
Speaker 1: But I'm one hundred percent with you, as are the
Speaker 1: expert consensus. Seventy eight percent of betters are taking the
Speaker 1: Cowboys in this one at that spread, so I agree
Speaker 1: with you. We're one percent on the same page. For
Speaker 1: my last pick, I am going to again take another
Speaker 1: over under which I'm I'm gonna have it here and
Speaker 1: I'm going to start with the under on the Chargers Lions.
Speaker 1: Now that's set at forty eight. Now, the spread here
Speaker 1: is the Chargers laying two and a half and it
Speaker 1: has been there pretty much forever. And I did like
Speaker 1: that at first, But now that you've got Hunter Henry
Speaker 1: out sounds like Mike sounds like Mike will Diiams is
Speaker 1: going to miss the game as well, it's a little
Speaker 1: hard to really support the Chargers with it being below
Speaker 1: the key number. But the forty eight that feels to
Speaker 1: me like given the lines a little too much credit
Speaker 1: for what they were able to do against a really bad.
Speaker 2: Arizona, really bad Arizona not.
Speaker 1: Good in any way, shape or form. Now, look, I
Speaker 1: do I do like t. J. Hogginson a lot, and
Speaker 1: they do have It opens up a new dimension for
Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford and the Chargers, surprise, surprise, are dealing with
Speaker 1: a ton of injuries. They've got an injuries at cornerback
Speaker 1: right now. So you know, look, but in the end,
Speaker 1: what you know here is that matt Patricia wants to
Speaker 1: be the slow, control of the clock, running the ball
Speaker 1: type of team. He didn't he doesn't want to really
Speaker 1: get away from that. If he doesn't have to. That
Speaker 1: type of offense is just not conducive to scoring a
Speaker 1: lot of points. And the Chargers, I mean, they put
Speaker 1: up thirty in overtime last year, but they're not really
Speaker 1: all that explosive at this point. Austin Eckler looked great,
Speaker 1: but he is an obvious downgrade without Melvin Gordon, no Hunter,
Speaker 1: Henry As we just talked about, probably no Mike Williams,
Speaker 1: and honestly, with those two guys out Philip Rivers, after
Speaker 1: you get past Keenan Allen, he's going to be throwing
Speaker 1: the ball to Travis Benjamin, Dontrell Lindman and Sean Culkin.
Speaker 1: That is not an offense that is going to go nuts.
Speaker 1: It's also a one o'clock game. Don't forget we know
Speaker 1: about West Coast teams that head east, I mean Detroit East,
Speaker 1: quote unquote what they are. If it is a one
Speaker 1: o'clock game, they're not usually on top of their game.
Speaker 1: So I see this as kind of a tighter and
Speaker 1: lower scoring game. I think the total should be closer
Speaker 1: to maybe forty six forty six and a half. So
Speaker 1: if I can lock it in at forty eight, I
Speaker 1: am more than happy to do that.
Speaker 2: Kind of forgot Benjamin was still in the league. There.
Speaker 1: Oh you can never forget Travis Benjamin. Man, if you
Speaker 1: play fantasy football, then you're gonna.
Speaker 2: Know he's gonna be one random amazing catches. Oh some
Speaker 2: just incredible catches.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's got some some random he's gonna he's always
Speaker 1: possible to catch, uh, you know, a deep ball. But
Speaker 1: in the end, I don't think that's This game just
Speaker 1: screams to me as kind of a slug it out.
Speaker 1: Not really, you know, I don't see this as like
Speaker 1: a fifty point over under for me, So I'm happy
Speaker 1: to lock in the openator.
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, I agree. I agreed with you.
Speaker 3: I saw that number and I was like, early on
Speaker 3: this week, I was like, jeez, I'm probably gonna bet
Speaker 3: the Chargers. But just the way the way a week
Speaker 3: is gone, it is not good.
Speaker 1: It has not been a good week for the Chargers.
Speaker 1: They deal with more injuries than any other team. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's really crazy. All right, let's just sum up here
Speaker 1: what we like for pick six, aptly named You like
Speaker 1: the Titans length three and a half. Now you like
Speaker 1: them at three, but you like them laying three and
Speaker 1: a half to the Colts. You like the Cowboys who
Speaker 1: are now laying six to the Redskins, I believe, and
Speaker 1: you like the Chiefs Raiders to go over fifty three
Speaker 1: and a half. Is that right?
Speaker 2: That's correct?
Speaker 1: All right? I like all those very good. As for me,
Speaker 1: I am going to go with the Chargers Lions under
Speaker 1: forty eight as I just said, the Titans Colts under
Speaker 1: forty four and a half, and I like the Bills
Speaker 1: laying one and a half to the Giants. So before
Speaker 1: we move on to our next segment, I want to
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Speaker 1: hundred gambler. All right, Andrew, let's move on to our
Speaker 1: next segment. And I'm not going to play the drop
Speaker 1: every time, so I'll just try to do my best
Speaker 1: Admiral ackbar impersonation. It's drop that doesn't really work. I'll
Speaker 1: come all thank you, I appreciate it. It's terrible. I gotta
Speaker 1: work on it. But you know, all right, So we're
Speaker 1: doing it as a trap, showing the one bet that
Speaker 1: stood out to each of us as something that we
Speaker 1: think needs to be avoided.
Speaker 3: Once you kick us off, well, I think it's a
Speaker 3: little obvious, but it's got to be the Pats and Dolphins, right, Oh, goodness.
Speaker 1: No, no, I'm not getting anywhere near it. I don't know,
Speaker 1: but go ahead give your reason all.
Speaker 3: First of all, I think the line should be more
Speaker 3: between like fourteen and a half and seventeen.
Speaker 1: By the way, the line is currently at eighteen and
Speaker 1: a half to eight.
Speaker 2: I have seen it as high as twenty and it's.
Speaker 1: And it oh what did it open end? By the way,
Speaker 1: I think when I looked at first, it was fourteen or.
Speaker 3: Something and it jumped up right away. But this is
Speaker 3: once again one of these. The Pats looked amazing on
Speaker 3: Sunday night football against what was supposed to be a
Speaker 3: good Steelers team, and now might be adding a B
Speaker 3: to the mix.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 3: We're not going to get into all that mess. But
Speaker 3: and the Dolphins looked well insert your whatever verb you'd
Speaker 3: like to use to describe how terrible they are here, Like.
Speaker 1: Just how about we say the Giants' time.
Speaker 2: Oh, that's it. That's a good one.
Speaker 3: That's perfect, all right, like really awful, like already printing
Speaker 3: to a jersey's awful. But that said, it's one of
Speaker 3: the biggest Week two lines I can I can ever remember,
Speaker 3: especially for a road a road team. The Pats have
Speaker 3: a history of struggling in that Miami heater, or they've
Speaker 3: had a few trips down there where they're all we're gassed, like,
Speaker 3: oh well, it's Miami whatever, and they're always seem to
Speaker 3: be good for one of those are the Pats done
Speaker 3: type of games where they look terrible and everyone's like, oh,
Speaker 3: it's finally over, and of course it's never over.
Speaker 2: But another angle here is.
Speaker 3: A little bit maybe, just maybe Belichick won't want to
Speaker 3: embarrass Florist too badly, but maybe he will.
Speaker 2: I don't know, Patricia.
Speaker 3: Patricia upset him with the Lions last year, so maybe
Speaker 3: he's grumbling a bit about that, or or the Pats
Speaker 3: could win by forty. So like, you literally have no
Speaker 3: idea what could happen here, So stay away, just stay away.
Speaker 1: I completely a great I desperately want to take the Dolphins,
Speaker 1: and I want those never to keep going up. I
Speaker 1: don't know where it could get to where I would
Speaker 1: be okay with picking this game either. I just don't know.
Speaker 1: I mean, if you're saying you can have twenty one points,
Speaker 1: I would still hesitate. I mean I might hit the Dolphins,
Speaker 1: yeah at that point, but I would still hesitate because
Speaker 1: you just don't know. The Pats can win this game
Speaker 1: by thirty five points, I mean, very easily if they
Speaker 1: decide to keep their foot on the gas. But I'm
Speaker 1: completely with you, and the line just keeps moving up
Speaker 1: and up and up, and I think when it's all
Speaker 1: said and done, I think it's going to be more
Speaker 1: like nineteen and a half when it comes close to
Speaker 1: I'm staying away. I'm staying away completely. Yeah, all right.
Speaker 1: For me, it's the Packers laying three to the Vikings.
Speaker 1: I mean, first off, I mentioned divisional games scare me.
Speaker 1: Two teams who know each other perhaps as well as
Speaker 1: any two teams in the league. Both of them had
Speaker 1: an over under of exactly nine wins heading into the season.
Speaker 1: Both of them have really strong defenses, and I don't
Speaker 1: think that we learned enough about what the Minnesota offense
Speaker 1: is going to look like here last week. Dalvin Cook
Speaker 1: looked great, of course, but Cousins attempted ten passes. I mean,
Speaker 1: they didn't need to do very much. So I have
Speaker 1: a really hard time analyzing the impact of some of
Speaker 1: the offseason changes like An and Gary Kubiak. Now, if
Speaker 1: I were to pick a winner here, I would probably
Speaker 1: pick the Packers. They're home, they're on extra rest. It's
Speaker 1: a little tough to go against Rogers, but overall it's
Speaker 1: gonna be a really hard fought game, and the spread
Speaker 1: is right at that key number of three. This is
Speaker 1: the type of game where I don't know about you.
Speaker 1: I just don't want any part of it.
Speaker 3: I am in complete agreement. I'm staying away. I have
Speaker 3: no idea what's going to happen. These two teams always
Speaker 3: play close games, so I'm just Everyone was speaking about
Speaker 3: the Packers. Oh, the Packers have a defense. Now, well,
Speaker 3: you were playing Mitchell Trubisky.
Speaker 2: We we didn't.
Speaker 1: Don't speak ill of Mitch, all right, No, I think that,
Speaker 1: But I think the defense is legit. No I do.
Speaker 2: I do.
Speaker 3: I do think it's better. I will say I agree
Speaker 3: with you. I do think it's better, but I don't
Speaker 3: know how we can grade them. After Mitchell looked Mitchell,
Speaker 3: are you okay calling him Mitch?
Speaker 2: Are we still?
Speaker 1: I'm telling what you can do? Whatever you want. I
Speaker 1: I work close with I co host a fantasy football
Speaker 1: podcast on Sunday nights. He's a Bears fan. He calls
Speaker 1: him Mitch. He named his dog Mitch, so you can
Speaker 1: do whatever you want to do.
Speaker 3: We were not allowed to use Mitch in my We
Speaker 3: also have a very very passionate Bears fan who just
Speaker 3: sits behind me in the office, So I'm not allowed
Speaker 3: to use Mitch, but I'll use it here.
Speaker 2: So I'm excited.
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, yeah, I think that's fair. I mean, look,
Speaker 1: he did look terrible. They didn't have any preseason, which
Speaker 1: was terrible mistake in my humble opinion. So I agree
Speaker 1: it's tough to really draw too many conclusions. But we
Speaker 1: did know before the season coming in that the Packers
Speaker 1: had certainly added a lot on the defensive side of
Speaker 1: the ball. So I do think that this is just
Speaker 1: going to be kind of a slugged out game. I
Speaker 1: think it's going to be really close and Division games
Speaker 1: generally speaking, absent the Cowboys and the Redskins, which I'm
Speaker 1: fine with and I'm with you on that one. I
Speaker 1: just kind of like to avoid. So before we finish
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Speaker 1: final segment, Top Prop, where we will each list one
Speaker 1: prop available in the market that we like.
Speaker 3: Start us off, well, I'm going to go with another game.
Speaker 3: I hinted that before the Saints and Rams, I think
Speaker 3: it's going to be a high scoring game, and I
Speaker 3: think that's going to mean good things for Robert Woods.
Speaker 3: He's had almost eight and a half targets per game
Speaker 3: last season, and he's continued to be Jered Goff's favorite
Speaker 3: weapon this year, with thirteen targets in Week one and
Speaker 3: he caught eight of them for seventy yards. But my
Speaker 3: favorite thing about Woods in this matchup is his consistency.
Speaker 3: Like there's not many guys who just he just keeps
Speaker 3: turning out catch after catch after catch, and now he
Speaker 3: gets to go up against this Saint secretor that had
Speaker 3: all sorts of problems with the Texans last week. Obviously,
Speaker 3: the Rams don't have anyone like DeAndre Hopkins like that
Speaker 3: dude's special, but they have enough guys that are almost
Speaker 3: at that level, like Woods and Cup and even Brandon
Speaker 3: Cooks a little bit. I think multiple of these guys
Speaker 3: could have big games here. The Saints also play much
Speaker 3: worse traditionally outdoors than they do inside the Dome, but
Speaker 3: I'd have no problem with taking Woods over his receiving
Speaker 3: yards over seventy and even if you can even take
Speaker 3: his over receptions, well, I expect that to hit the
Speaker 3: board around five and a half and he's I think
Speaker 3: he's gonna go over that as well. There's just Marcus
Speaker 3: Ladmore is a good cornerback, but they he can't cover everybody,
Speaker 3: and even he had trouble with he was even having
Speaker 3: trouble last week there against Hopkins and McVay is very
Speaker 3: good at moving receivers around into the open spaces in
Speaker 3: the field to get guys to make place.
Speaker 1: Out of curiosity? Is there anything that makes you feel
Speaker 1: better about Woods than you would let's say, at Cup
Speaker 1: or at Cooks at a similar you know over under
Speaker 1: for receiver Woods.
Speaker 3: Like I said, with Woods, it's just his consistency. He's
Speaker 3: he's the guy. That's that's the security blanket, I think.
Speaker 3: And if there are troubles for golf, which he has
Speaker 3: shown that he can get a little rattled ever since
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl, and he doesn't make always the best decisions,
Speaker 3: but you always have that security blanket and Woods seems
Speaker 3: to be that guy. And like I said, just the Saints,
Speaker 3: the Saints defense did not look very good on Monday nights,
Speaker 3: So I really like I like Woods in the lot
Speaker 3: in this matchup.
Speaker 1: I really you have a hard time ever having a
Speaker 1: problem with anything with Woods going over receiving yard is
Speaker 1: one of my favorite receivers in the league. He is man,
Speaker 1: he is He's finally starting to get his due a
Speaker 1: little bit because they went to the Super Bowl, so
Speaker 1: people started knowing his name. But he's really one of
Speaker 1: the best receivers in the NFL. For me, I'm going
Speaker 1: to go with Sony Michelle to go over seventy five
Speaker 1: yards rushing, and we talked about the spread in that game.
Speaker 1: I think we both expect the Patriots to win easily,
Speaker 1: as does anybody who has ever watched a football game.
Speaker 1: And look, Michelle did nothing last he did not against
Speaker 1: the Steilers. I fully admit that he gained just fourteen
Speaker 1: yards and Rex Burke had looked good, but look, he
Speaker 1: did look good, and it's a credited backfield. And I'm
Speaker 1: not sure how I feel about Michelle long term for
Speaker 1: the rest of the season if I'm going to be
Speaker 1: looking at these prop bets. But you know, he got
Speaker 1: fifteen carries last week. He did nothing with him, but
Speaker 1: he got fifteen carries, and assuming that he gets that again,
Speaker 1: I'd honestly feel good about him going over the seventy
Speaker 1: five yard mark. If you just told me he's going
Speaker 1: to get those fifteen carries. The Dolphins allowed two hundred
Speaker 1: and sixty five five yards rushing to the Ravens, nearly
Speaker 1: six yards per carry. But the big thing is I
Speaker 1: actually expect Michelle to get even more work. You know
Speaker 1: they're going to be ahead, and we don't you know
Speaker 1: whether or not they keep their foot on the gas
Speaker 1: or they take it off. They're probably going to be
Speaker 1: running in a fair amount. It's going to be hot.
Speaker 1: They're not going to want to have the guys get
Speaker 1: to extended generally. Michelle is from South Florida. It's probably
Speaker 1: something where they're going to want to give him a
Speaker 1: big game. So I could see him getting closer to
Speaker 1: twenty carries. I think he's going to beat that seventy
Speaker 1: five yards by a pretty easy march. And again, this
Speaker 1: game's difficult to kind of look at and say we
Speaker 1: think this is what's going to happen, other than you
Speaker 1: could say that the Patriots are going to win by
Speaker 1: a massive amount. Whether that amount is going to be
Speaker 1: more than eighteen and a half points, we're not really sure,
Speaker 1: but we know they're going to win almost certainly. You
Speaker 1: don't know anything almost certainly going to win. They're going
Speaker 1: to be playing from ahead, they're going to probably at
Speaker 1: some point want to just run the ball, and I
Speaker 1: think that they're just gonna let Michelle, who's from that area,
Speaker 1: probably have a little more run with it. So, oh,
Speaker 1: you're right, I'll take Michelle. Yeah, over seventy five.
Speaker 3: A lot of fantasy stock and Sony Michelle this year,
Speaker 3: so I really hope you're right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I understand it was a rough, rough beginning, it was,
Speaker 1: but it was yeah, it's all right. And again, well
Speaker 1: you're avoiding the eighteen and a half bet, but I'm
Speaker 1: going to get in on that game by getting Michelle
Speaker 1: over seventy five. And again you like woods and it's
Speaker 1: around seventy five you're receiving, and you'd also take roughly
Speaker 1: over five and a half catches, right I would, Okay, wonderful,
Speaker 1: all right, buddy, Well that's going to do it for
Speaker 1: today's show. Thank you Andrew for coming on. You were great.
Speaker 1: Can you remind everyone where they can find more of
Speaker 1: you and your work.
Speaker 3: You can find more from me at covers dot com,
Speaker 3: and you can find more for me personally at Twitter
Speaker 3: Covers Underscore.
Speaker 2: Kaylee C. A. L.
Speaker 3: E y, and I've got tons of football content, a
Speaker 3: lot of college football stuff too, if you like that
Speaker 3: sort of thing.
Speaker 2: I'm a big college football junkie.
Speaker 3: And MLB postseason coming up too, so really, really a
Speaker 3: lot of exciting stuff going on.
Speaker 1: By the way, I'm I'm a huge baseball fan as well,
Speaker 1: so I encourage everyone, by the way to, you know,
Speaker 1: really look into sports betting when it comes to MLB.
Speaker 2: It's a lot of fun stuff for baseball.
Speaker 3: Like you mentioned five innings in one of the there, Yeah,
Speaker 3: I love.
Speaker 2: I love five inning bets.
Speaker 3: I love I love, I love first innings score bets
Speaker 3: like just I love breaking down pictures and matchups with starters.
Speaker 1: Lots of fun one hundred percent. And it's every day.
Speaker 1: That's the best part of it. So you don't have
Speaker 1: to wait necessarily just till Thursday or Sunday or Monday.
Speaker 1: You can do it every day. Well that's great, Andrew,
Speaker 1: really thank you again for coming on. I hope we
Speaker 1: can do it again soon.
Speaker 2: I can't wait, all right.
Speaker 1: I want to remind everyone before we go about bet MGM,
Speaker 1: where you can place your first wager of up to
Speaker 1: five hundred dollars risk free on the bet MGM sports
Speaker 1: app and Sideboss where they offer a ton of contests
Speaker 1: in nearly every sport for you to hone your skills
Speaker 1: as a handicapper. Good luck with your wagers this week,
Speaker 1: and my friends, we'll be back breaking down the early
Speaker 1: lines next week.
Speaker 3: It's