WEBVTT - Best NFL Week 2 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 9) 0:00:07.640 --> 0:00:10.200 Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of 0:00:10.240 --> 0:00:13.640 the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:16.159 I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me 0:00:16.200 --> 0:00:19.120 on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. Week one is pretty 0:00:19.120 --> 0:00:21.319 wild and as we do every year, we learned a 0:00:21.400 --> 0:00:24.560 ton mostly don't ever bet against the Chiefs because it's 0:00:24.600 --> 0:00:26.560 going to give you a sick feeling watching the game, 0:00:26.760 --> 0:00:29.760 regardless of how it's going. Now, this is our Thursday show, 0:00:29.840 --> 0:00:32.320 so as we're gonna do every week, we'll talk about 0:00:32.320 --> 0:00:34.720 some of our best bets, either against the spread or 0:00:34.760 --> 0:00:37.400 over unders. We'll give you a bet to avoid, and 0:00:37.440 --> 0:00:39.480 then we're going to give you our favorite player prop 0:00:39.520 --> 0:00:41.640 bet for the week. And with me today to break 0:00:41.640 --> 0:00:44.880 it all down is Andrew Cayley, a senior publishing editor 0:00:44.920 --> 0:00:47.680 at Covers. Andrew runs the gamut in terms of sports 0:00:47.680 --> 0:00:51.640 betting advice, including the NBA, MLB, PGA, and of course 0:00:51.720 --> 0:00:53.920 the NFL, and you can find him on Twitter at 0:00:54.080 --> 0:00:57.080 Covers Underscore. Kaylee, Andrew, how's it going, man? 0:00:57.480 --> 0:00:59.440 It's going really well? Really excited to be here. 0:01:00.120 --> 0:01:03.080 Am I the first person to pronounce your name correctly. 0:01:03.520 --> 0:01:04.600 In this season? I believe? 0:01:04.640 --> 0:01:04.720 So? 0:01:04.920 --> 0:01:07.399 Yeah, well, that's good because I try. I'm like a 0:01:07.400 --> 0:01:10.720 stickler about pronunciation. So all right, I'll just pull the 0:01:10.760 --> 0:01:12.800 curtain back a little bit. I asked you like four 0:01:12.840 --> 0:01:15.280 times right before we got on you I did. I 0:01:15.319 --> 0:01:17.800 mean it's bad. By the way, Andrew's name is spelled 0:01:17.880 --> 0:01:20.120 c a l e y, So when you're at his 0:01:20.160 --> 0:01:23.000 Twitter and at covers underscore c A L E why. 0:01:23.760 --> 0:01:25.360 I like to pretend I'm smarter than I am. But 0:01:25.440 --> 0:01:27.000 in the end, I've got to give it up. I 0:01:27.080 --> 0:01:29.120 was ready for CALLI, but I like to clean it 0:01:29.200 --> 0:01:31.160 up right before we go. All right, all right, are 0:01:31.240 --> 0:01:33.280 you ready? Are you ready to dive into week two? 0:01:33.600 --> 0:01:34.880 I'm ready? All right. 0:01:34.920 --> 0:01:36.920 As always, we're going to get started with pick six, 0:01:37.080 --> 0:01:39.000 where both Andrew and I are going to give three 0:01:39.120 --> 0:01:41.880 of our favorite bets for this weekend, either against the 0:01:41.880 --> 0:01:45.160 spread or on the over under. Now do you get that, Andrew? 0:01:45.200 --> 0:01:51.000 I mean it's picked six because we're making six. I 0:01:51.000 --> 0:01:52.960 would take credit for it, but it was actually made 0:01:53.000 --> 0:01:54.800 by our last guest Ian McMillan. I want to give 0:01:54.840 --> 0:01:56.800 him credit. But as always, I'm going to note at 0:01:56.800 --> 0:01:59.360 the outset that we are recording this shortly before kickoff 0:01:59.360 --> 0:02:01.600 of the Thursday night game. So we are not going 0:02:01.640 --> 0:02:04.160 to be making any picks on the Panthers Bucks game. 0:02:04.200 --> 0:02:06.480 But if you want to see how I picked that game, 0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:08.799 you can go to bettingpros dot com. That's going to 0:02:08.840 --> 0:02:11.320 show you how I and basically every betting expert who 0:02:11.320 --> 0:02:13.920 makes picks on that site made their picks for every 0:02:13.960 --> 0:02:16.600 single game. We're also going to be using the bettingpros 0:02:16.639 --> 0:02:19.640 dot com consensus odds and making our picks. Those are 0:02:19.680 --> 0:02:22.440 the aggregate odds that you'll find available in the market. 0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:24.760 All right, Andrew, let's get it started. Who is your 0:02:24.800 --> 0:02:25.320 first pick? 0:02:25.520 --> 0:02:27.519 My first pick is my favorite pick of the week, 0:02:27.560 --> 0:02:29.680 even though I just am looking at your consensus odds 0:02:29.680 --> 0:02:31.840 here and I see they've moved to minus three and 0:02:31.880 --> 0:02:33.919 a half as opposed to minus three. But there's a 0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:35.840 couple of threes out there, and that's the Titans this 0:02:35.880 --> 0:02:37.800 week as they host the Colts. 0:02:38.280 --> 0:02:40.120 I really really. 0:02:39.919 --> 0:02:41.880 Liked the Titans last week. They shocked a lot of people. 0:02:41.919 --> 0:02:45.320 They derailed that Brian Brown's hype trained pretty quickly. But 0:02:45.360 --> 0:02:47.360 one of the hardest things to do when betting football, 0:02:47.440 --> 0:02:50.240 especially early in the season, is not to overreact to 0:02:50.520 --> 0:02:53.920 things we've just seen. But that said, the Titans looked 0:02:53.960 --> 0:02:56.919 really good. They were balanced on offense, they were stout 0:02:56.960 --> 0:02:59.800 on defense, caused turnovers. It was just really in persons, 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:03.639 impressive overall. And now there's no Andrew Luck for the Colts, 0:03:03.680 --> 0:03:08.320 and he owned the Titans. But when Tennessee played the 0:03:08.600 --> 0:03:11.560 Colts without Andrew Luck, they went two to zero straight 0:03:11.600 --> 0:03:13.639 up and against the spread. In twenty seventeen, that's when 0:03:13.680 --> 0:03:17.560 Brissett was starting for one of those ailments Luck ailments. 0:03:17.560 --> 0:03:20.480 I forget which one exactly it was, but he was 0:03:20.520 --> 0:03:22.280 not playing and they did well in those games. I 0:03:22.320 --> 0:03:24.600 know the Colts offensive line and the defensive line and 0:03:25.400 --> 0:03:27.720 offensive line and defense are much better now, but I 0:03:27.760 --> 0:03:29.800 think that's not gonna be enough to cover the number 0:03:29.840 --> 0:03:31.760 on the road. I think the Titans are going to 0:03:31.800 --> 0:03:33.720 sell out to stop Marlin mack here. He had a 0:03:33.720 --> 0:03:36.880 pretty big week one. But they've got a really solid secondary. 0:03:36.880 --> 0:03:38.520 So if they sell out to stop Mac, then they 0:03:38.520 --> 0:03:40.280 can rely on those guys on the back end to 0:03:40.760 --> 0:03:42.760 limit Persett and what he can do. And the key 0:03:42.760 --> 0:03:44.280 for the Titans on offense I think is gonna be 0:03:44.320 --> 0:03:47.480 Delaney Walker. He's fully healthy and it showed last week. 0:03:47.520 --> 0:03:49.320 He hauled in two touchdowns, so I like that a 0:03:49.360 --> 0:03:51.680 lot of him a lot, and have him in a 0:03:51.680 --> 0:03:54.000 lot of DFS lineups this week, so I'm excited about that. 0:03:54.520 --> 0:03:56.560 And the Colts were one of the worst teams in 0:03:56.560 --> 0:03:58.640 the NFL last year when it came to defending ten ends, 0:03:58.680 --> 0:04:00.480 so I can see him having a big impact in 0:04:00.520 --> 0:04:02.920 this game. I like the Titans by minus three and 0:04:02.920 --> 0:04:03.640 a half now. 0:04:03.480 --> 0:04:05.280 And you're okay with that half point move, then. 0:04:06.520 --> 0:04:07.440 I like I did. 0:04:07.600 --> 0:04:09.520 I saw that earlier when I was when I was 0:04:09.560 --> 0:04:11.720 looking doing some more research here that it moved. 0:04:11.800 --> 0:04:13.080 I personally have a three. 0:04:13.880 --> 0:04:16.839 It makes me a little uncomfortable, but but I'm still 0:04:16.880 --> 0:04:19.280 confident in saying the Titans, little Titans will win this 0:04:19.440 --> 0:04:21.000 by by at least four points. 0:04:21.120 --> 0:04:21.280 Now. 0:04:21.320 --> 0:04:23.320 One of the things that we do at bettingpros dot 0:04:23.320 --> 0:04:26.440 com is in taking the aggregate consensus odds, we show 0:04:26.480 --> 0:04:28.400 you the odds that are available in a bunch of 0:04:28.600 --> 0:04:30.760 in a bunch of sports books. So while three and 0:04:30.800 --> 0:04:34.239 a half is the aggregate line, FanDuel is still offering 0:04:34.240 --> 0:04:36.800 it at minus three, as is points bet. So in 0:04:36.839 --> 0:04:38.719 the end, you can shop around a little bit and 0:04:38.760 --> 0:04:41.039 get the best line you want. But you're saying regardless, 0:04:41.080 --> 0:04:43.640 you still you feel a little less comfortable, but you're 0:04:43.640 --> 0:04:45.200 still good with it. You're still good with it at 0:04:45.200 --> 0:04:45.760 three and a half. 0:04:45.920 --> 0:04:47.280 I'm still good with a three and a half. But if 0:04:47.279 --> 0:04:48.719 you can find the three out there, jump on it 0:04:48.720 --> 0:04:49.400 as soon as you can. 0:04:49.680 --> 0:04:51.920 All right, Well, sixty five percent of experts. I don't 0:04:51.920 --> 0:04:53.320 want to. I don't want to get you upset. We're 0:04:53.320 --> 0:04:55.159 gonna start off on like a really fun you know, 0:04:55.279 --> 0:04:57.080 you and I are getting along, but sixty five percent 0:04:57.080 --> 0:04:59.440 of experts on this one are backing the colts with 0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:01.920 that's so you know we're gonna have to We're gonna 0:05:01.920 --> 0:05:05.120 have to see about that. That's obviously not always indicative necessarily. 0:05:04.720 --> 0:05:06.120 Will mark it down. 0:05:06.520 --> 0:05:08.520 We'll mark it down. Well, remember you and I'll talk 0:05:08.560 --> 0:05:11.080 after this, no problem. Well, look, last week I did 0:05:11.120 --> 0:05:13.400 all spreads because I just couldn't find enough over unders 0:05:13.600 --> 0:05:15.680 that I really liked. But one of my picks actually, 0:05:15.720 --> 0:05:18.600 and it works that it goes here right directly from yours, 0:05:18.880 --> 0:05:20.960 is I actually like the Titan and Cult game to 0:05:21.000 --> 0:05:23.479 come under forty four and a half. So I know 0:05:23.560 --> 0:05:26.320 both teams scored a lot last week. Of course I 0:05:26.360 --> 0:05:28.440 don't really see that happening here. I mean, the Titans 0:05:28.440 --> 0:05:30.679 scored forty three points last week, but they had twelve 0:05:31.000 --> 0:05:33.760 at halftime, and then Mayfield through the three interceptions on 0:05:33.839 --> 0:05:36.600 consecutive drives in the second half. The Titans scored twenty 0:05:36.640 --> 0:05:38.120 one points in the fourth quarter and they had a 0:05:38.160 --> 0:05:39.720 pick six. So I kind of think that we can 0:05:39.720 --> 0:05:42.760 throw that out for the most part, and I don't now, 0:05:42.839 --> 0:05:45.120 And I really have never had much faith in the 0:05:45.160 --> 0:05:48.280 Tennessee offense. I'm not a buyer into Marcus Mariota. I 0:05:48.320 --> 0:05:51.680 don't think they want to be an explosive offense right. Conversely, 0:05:51.800 --> 0:05:53.960 I do have faith in their defense. They had a 0:05:54.000 --> 0:05:56.600 great pass roster last week against the Browns, they had 0:05:56.600 --> 0:05:59.159 five sacks. The secondary is more than adequate. I have 0:05:59.200 --> 0:06:02.120 faith in Mike frabl I like GMPS. Then you look 0:06:02.120 --> 0:06:04.560 at the Colts. I preached a bit in the preseason 0:06:04.600 --> 0:06:07.000 that I didn't expect the Colts offense to drop off 0:06:07.000 --> 0:06:09.600 into the Abyss. I think Jacoby Brissett is more than 0:06:09.680 --> 0:06:12.480 capable here. They have a great offensive line, They've got 0:06:12.600 --> 0:06:15.960 enough playmakers to be dangerous, But realistically, I don't think 0:06:16.000 --> 0:06:17.640 they're the type of offense that's going to be able 0:06:17.680 --> 0:06:20.279 to put up a ton of points consistently, even though 0:06:20.279 --> 0:06:22.600 they did get to twenty four last week against a 0:06:22.720 --> 0:06:25.760 solid Chargers defense. Now, their defense struggled last week right 0:06:25.800 --> 0:06:28.360 against the Chargers, but they did sack Rivers four times, 0:06:28.480 --> 0:06:30.640 they had two takeaways, and the Browns were able to 0:06:30.640 --> 0:06:32.880 get a lot of pressure on Mariota they had four 0:06:32.920 --> 0:06:35.440 sacks as well. So look, this is a similar defense 0:06:35.480 --> 0:06:38.560 to last year. The Titans scored twenty seven points combined 0:06:38.720 --> 0:06:41.120 against the Colts in both matchups. I think it's going 0:06:41.160 --> 0:06:43.200 to be a tight, low scoring game, so I'm going 0:06:43.279 --> 0:06:45.320 to take the under here for what it's worth. I 0:06:45.440 --> 0:06:46.920 checked just you know what I like to do, and 0:06:46.960 --> 0:06:48.599 I explained it last week is when I have a 0:06:48.600 --> 0:06:50.680 feeling about a game, I like to just check how 0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:53.240 the money is coming in on it, necessarily if there's 0:06:53.320 --> 0:06:56.040 any difference, right exactly now, I didn't really see any 0:06:56.080 --> 0:06:58.520 difference here with the smart money, but roughly ninety five 0:06:58.520 --> 0:07:01.000 percent of the money last time I checked was generally coming 0:07:01.040 --> 0:07:03.280 in on the under. Now that does far outweigh the 0:07:03.360 --> 0:07:06.400 number of bets. It doesn't. It's not there are there 0:07:06.400 --> 0:07:08.240 are markers that you know for me, when I look 0:07:08.240 --> 0:07:10.200 at something, you can tell, right when it's when it's 0:07:10.240 --> 0:07:12.840 really sharp, I can't necessarily tell that this is what 0:07:12.880 --> 0:07:15.040 it is, but that the amount of money coming in 0:07:15.160 --> 0:07:16.960 does outweigh the number of bets that are coming in, 0:07:17.040 --> 0:07:18.960 although again it is on the under, so for me 0:07:19.120 --> 0:07:21.200 that that is at least a small signal that the 0:07:21.280 --> 0:07:23.800 under is popular by sharp betters. And again it's one 0:07:23.840 --> 0:07:26.440 of these things. I think it's gonna be close, and realistically, 0:07:26.920 --> 0:07:29.120 I was a little nervous about this game. I get 0:07:29.120 --> 0:07:31.400 nervous on Division games, man. I mean, I get it, 0:07:31.480 --> 0:07:33.640 you know, but these teams know each other pretty well. 0:07:33.680 --> 0:07:35.560 Of course it's not Andrew Luck, but I do think 0:07:35.600 --> 0:07:37.080 it's gonna be hard fought, and I think it's gonna 0:07:37.120 --> 0:07:39.520 be defensive. So I three and a half or three 0:07:39.760 --> 0:07:41.480 that might have been one actually, which I could have 0:07:41.560 --> 0:07:43.200 listed as the one to avoid. I'm not gonna do 0:07:43.280 --> 0:07:45.440 it right now because it's up there. Yeah, I get it, 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:47.200 you know, I'm just trying to, you know, get your 0:07:47.200 --> 0:07:47.800 going over here. 0:07:47.800 --> 0:07:49.880 But oh it's good. It's you're doing a good job. 0:07:50.080 --> 0:07:51.160 Yeah. Are you mad? 0:07:51.160 --> 0:07:51.320 Now? 0:07:51.320 --> 0:07:52.640 Are you ready to go? And just kind of be 0:07:52.720 --> 0:07:55.360 like it's gonna come. It's gonna be a sixty point game. 0:07:55.480 --> 0:07:56.320 What are you talking about? 0:07:56.440 --> 0:07:59.800 It's funny because I didn't I specifically didn't put Mariota 0:07:59.840 --> 0:08:03.240 in my notes because he's very polarizing, and you had 0:08:03.280 --> 0:08:04.640 to go talk about Mariota. 0:08:04.720 --> 0:08:05.640 I I am a. 0:08:05.720 --> 0:08:08.080 Cornerback of a team that I'm saying is gonna come under. 0:08:08.120 --> 0:08:09.160 It's hard to avoid him. 0:08:09.320 --> 0:08:13.119 He's I have been a Mariota apologist for a long time, 0:08:13.240 --> 0:08:15.560 so I was really excited to see his I know, 0:08:15.640 --> 0:08:17.240 as a lot of those yards came from that one 0:08:17.280 --> 0:08:20.840 pretty incredible Henry run last week or catch and run. 0:08:20.840 --> 0:08:24.120 But I still hold a little hope that he's not 0:08:24.920 --> 0:08:25.720 going to be a bust. 0:08:26.160 --> 0:08:28.040 Well. Look, I think the one thing that we can 0:08:28.080 --> 0:08:30.280 all agree at least about Mariota is he doesn't have 0:08:30.360 --> 0:08:32.959 mono nucleosis and is going to be out for three weeks. 0:08:32.960 --> 0:08:35.480 Like the quarterback of my favorite team, Sam Barl of 0:08:35.520 --> 0:08:39.000 the Jets. It's a rough exist. I just man, it's 0:08:39.000 --> 0:08:41.280 not my fault. I'm from Queen's Jets and Matt's I'm 0:08:41.280 --> 0:08:42.600 going to live and die with them. So I'm a 0:08:42.640 --> 0:08:45.120 pretty miserable human being as you might imagine. All right, 0:08:45.200 --> 0:08:46.640 let's get to your second pick. What do you got 0:08:46.640 --> 0:08:46.920 for me. 0:08:47.360 --> 0:08:51.160 My second pick here is the Chiefs and Raiders over 0:08:51.360 --> 0:08:54.240 fifty three and a half. You just said he didn't 0:08:54.280 --> 0:08:56.240 do any totals this week, so I'm glad we get 0:08:56.240 --> 0:08:57.240 to jump into them. 0:08:57.240 --> 0:09:00.400 Now. What can I say? I don't know. It's Anon 0:09:00.520 --> 0:09:01.480 you mentioned it. The Chiefs. 0:09:01.600 --> 0:09:03.400 The Chiefs are gonna give people headaches of the same 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:06.000 Chiefs as they were last year. They lost Tyreek Hill 0:09:06.040 --> 0:09:08.160 in the second series. I think it was they still 0:09:08.160 --> 0:09:10.800 put up a forty burger on the Jags d and 0:09:11.000 --> 0:09:13.440 if the Jags are gonna give up forty points, what 0:09:13.559 --> 0:09:14.679 are the Raiders gonna do. 0:09:14.920 --> 0:09:16.400 I'm not worried about Hill being out at all. 0:09:16.520 --> 0:09:19.480 Sam Waukins obviously stepped up big last week, incredible game, 0:09:19.679 --> 0:09:21.920 and they still have Travis Kelcey. Of course, for me, 0:09:22.120 --> 0:09:24.559 Tyreek Hill is more like a luxury than a necessity 0:09:24.600 --> 0:09:27.160 for the Chiefs. He's great to have, sure, but this 0:09:27.280 --> 0:09:30.880 offense is all about Mahomes and he's the type of 0:09:30.920 --> 0:09:33.800 guy who makes everyone around him better. I mean, look 0:09:33.800 --> 0:09:36.800 at Damian Williams. He was an afterthought prior to this 0:09:36.840 --> 0:09:38.800 season for the most part, like and now he's a 0:09:38.880 --> 0:09:41.120 guy you have to have in all of your fantasy 0:09:41.160 --> 0:09:44.959 lineups like He's just that's how good Mahomes is. As 0:09:44.960 --> 0:09:48.040 for the Raiders with ab Gone, Last Gone, they looked 0:09:48.080 --> 0:09:51.480 focused on Monday Night and it was David Carr was 0:09:51.600 --> 0:09:54.880 very efficient, which is a little shocking. He was against 0:09:54.920 --> 0:09:57.560 a good Broncos D. They didn't play well, obviously, but 0:09:57.600 --> 0:09:59.520 the key for the Raiders for me is if that 0:09:59.559 --> 0:10:02.600 O line can give cart time and can keep him upright, 0:10:02.640 --> 0:10:06.199 he's gonna hit receivers and I think he's gonna be 0:10:06.240 --> 0:10:08.480 able to do that this week against the Chiefs. 0:10:08.920 --> 0:10:09.559 He's getting some. 0:10:09.520 --> 0:10:12.440 Help now too with Josh Jacobs in the backfield and 0:10:12.480 --> 0:10:14.920 they're going against the Chiefs D. That allowed a rookie 0:10:14.960 --> 0:10:17.200 in Gardner Minshew, who I'm a big fan of. 0:10:17.240 --> 0:10:19.199 By the way, go was are you actually? Are you 0:10:19.320 --> 0:10:20.600 the one? You're one? 0:10:20.760 --> 0:10:22.240 I love Gardner Minshew. 0:10:22.320 --> 0:10:23.720 I love I don't know if it's just like the 0:10:23.760 --> 0:10:27.800 cult following or whatever, but I honestly don't think he's 0:10:27.880 --> 0:10:30.080 that much of a drop off from Nick Foles. I 0:10:30.120 --> 0:10:32.080 know that might be that might be sacrileged to some 0:10:32.080 --> 0:10:36.560 people in Philly, but I just he's he's a talented 0:10:36.600 --> 0:10:39.760 passer and he went twenty two for twenty five for 0:10:39.800 --> 0:10:41.640 tw hundred and seventy five yards and two scores. 0:10:41.679 --> 0:10:43.959 It is NFL debut, Come you off the bench, Like. 0:10:44.000 --> 0:10:46.360 I get it. And it's hard to know whether or not, 0:10:46.440 --> 0:10:48.520 but I think the point essentially that you're making really 0:10:48.600 --> 0:10:51.640 is it speaks volumes as to the Chiefs defense. 0:10:51.440 --> 0:10:53.400 Or the lack of chief the lack of defense. 0:10:53.480 --> 0:10:55.360 Yeah, and I think that, Look, this is the highest 0:10:55.480 --> 0:10:57.480 over under of the week, I mean, higher than the 0:10:57.559 --> 0:10:59.640 Rams and the Saints. Okay, so which I also like. 0:10:59.679 --> 0:11:01.679 By the way, you like the over on that one too. 0:11:01.880 --> 0:11:03.360 I'm not gonna hold you as one of your three, 0:11:03.400 --> 0:11:05.719 but that was one one that you'd like to as well. 0:11:05.840 --> 0:11:07.800 All right, all right, well, I look this is this 0:11:07.880 --> 0:11:09.600 is I don't think you're going out on a limb here. 0:11:09.760 --> 0:11:12.160 I agree. I mean, the thing about the Chiefs is 0:11:12.160 --> 0:11:15.960 that it's just we're I agree, he'll I mean, he 0:11:16.080 --> 0:11:19.560 adds something, of course, without it, very talent, without a doubt, 0:11:19.600 --> 0:11:21.920 without that, he's a great receiver. But I don't think 0:11:22.000 --> 0:11:24.160 that it's going to have that much of an impact 0:11:24.160 --> 0:11:25.640 on how much they're going to be able to score, 0:11:25.640 --> 0:11:27.400 as they showed last week where he missed the majority 0:11:27.400 --> 0:11:30.000 of the game, and Travis Kelsey wasn't even involved last week, 0:11:30.040 --> 0:11:32.360 so they can do it in a number of ways. 0:11:32.600 --> 0:11:38.480 And the Raiders looked kind of competent on right. Absolutely 0:11:38.679 --> 0:11:41.520 very strange, not expecting. I mean, betters are are totally 0:11:41.679 --> 0:11:44.120 agreeing with you here. The vast majority of the money 0:11:44.440 --> 0:11:45.000 is on the over. 0:11:45.280 --> 0:11:46.720 It's a bit of a it's a bit of a 0:11:46.720 --> 0:11:48.680 square play. I would say it's a square play, but 0:11:48.760 --> 0:11:51.000 I don't. I think winning money money. 0:11:50.840 --> 0:11:53.880 You don't apologize. You don't apologize for anything. You're like, well, 0:11:53.920 --> 0:11:55.960 I don't know, buddy, you take it to the bank 0:11:56.000 --> 0:11:58.520 if you've got one. I agree with you. I agree 0:11:58.520 --> 0:12:00.320 with you here totally. I'm gonna I'm gonna bring back 0:12:00.360 --> 0:12:02.960 now into being you know, on the same page. I 0:12:03.000 --> 0:12:04.719 totally agree with you on this one. I do think 0:12:04.720 --> 0:12:06.640 it's going to go over. I don't think I would 0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:08.840 ever bet under on a Chiefs gal like, I don't 0:12:08.840 --> 0:12:10.839 know what line they'd have to set because it's such 0:12:10.880 --> 0:12:13.320 an uncomfortable feeling whenever Mahomes is there. 0:12:13.400 --> 0:12:15.120 You know, I remember talking about it last year when 0:12:15.120 --> 0:12:17.040 they were supposed to play that game in Mexico City, 0:12:17.280 --> 0:12:19.680 and we were just talking around the office wondering what 0:12:19.720 --> 0:12:22.040 they were going to set the lineup, and we would 0:12:22.080 --> 0:12:26.560 just figured it'd have to be almost seventy and it 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:27.640 still might not be enough. 0:12:27.720 --> 0:12:29.880 It's crazy. It's crazy what the Chiefs are doing. 0:12:29.840 --> 0:12:33.040 I know. And there again because the Raiders looked relatively 0:12:33.080 --> 0:12:36.280 competent on offense. I mean, I would not be concerned here, 0:12:36.480 --> 0:12:39.040 Landil Overner. So over fifty three and a half, that's 0:12:39.040 --> 0:12:41.120 a good one. All right, I'll get to my next one, 0:12:41.160 --> 0:12:44.400 and that I'm going to take the bills laying one 0:12:44.440 --> 0:12:47.319 and a half to the Giants. So let's start here. 0:12:47.400 --> 0:12:50.319 Let's start here with the Giants. Okay, the Giants are 0:12:50.320 --> 0:12:53.839 a terrible football team. My analysis of this game has 0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:55.280 now concluded, Andrews. 0:12:55.320 --> 0:12:59.240 So there's nothing to do with your gensation whatsoever. 0:12:59.520 --> 0:13:03.480 I mean, Okay, it's the Giants defense is really what 0:13:03.800 --> 0:13:08.800 is truly terrible here. Okay, Janora Shenkins, he's still solid. Okay, 0:13:08.960 --> 0:13:12.040 I'll give him that, But he is the only remotely 0:13:12.320 --> 0:13:16.439 reliable cornerback on that entire roster right now. They blew 0:13:16.480 --> 0:13:19.720 a ton of coverages against Dallas last week. They have 0:13:19.760 --> 0:13:24.000 absolutely no pass rush. They hit Prescott twice last week, 0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:27.000 even though they blitzed about forty percent of the time. 0:13:27.320 --> 0:13:30.320 I don't think they have any real ability to stop 0:13:30.360 --> 0:13:33.199 a cohesive offense in my opinion all right now, whether 0:13:33.240 --> 0:13:36.640 the Bills have a cohesive offense, that's a fair question, 0:13:36.720 --> 0:13:38.960 and it's why the spread is at one and a half. 0:13:38.960 --> 0:13:41.160 But I watched the Bills Jets game closely last week. 0:13:41.200 --> 0:13:43.360 As I told you, I'm a Jets fan, and even 0:13:43.360 --> 0:13:45.400 though it was partly because the Jets were without CJ. 0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:47.720 Moseley in the second half, I think the Bills figured 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:49.440 a few things out, which is why I think they 0:13:49.440 --> 0:13:51.360 were able to move the ball better. I expect Devin 0:13:51.360 --> 0:13:54.360 Singletary to have a much bigger role here, regardless of 0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:57.000 if Frank Orr gets the start. I love John Brown, 0:13:57.000 --> 0:13:59.640 who looks healthy and strong. Josh Allen has a great 0:13:59.679 --> 0:14:02.040 rushing ability. I think he sort of calmed down. I 0:14:02.080 --> 0:14:04.400 know he's still inaccurate, but he kind of got it 0:14:04.480 --> 0:14:05.679 on there. I mean, he's never going to be the 0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:07.640 most accurate guy, but he got it under control. I 0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:09.160 think the Bills are going to be able to put 0:14:09.200 --> 0:14:12.160 up points here and I'm really not confident that the 0:14:12.200 --> 0:14:14.920 Giants will do much. And that's particularly with Sterling Shepard, 0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:17.480 who is still in the concussion protocol. As of today, 0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:19.240 he miss practice. I believe he's still in the concussion 0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:21.600 protocol at least miss practice, so he may miss this game. 0:14:21.840 --> 0:14:24.440 I like the Bills defense. They had four sacks last week, 0:14:24.480 --> 0:14:27.000 they had five quarterback hits, nine tackles for a loss, 0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:28.880 and we know about Tredevius White being one of the 0:14:28.880 --> 0:14:31.200 better quarterbacks in the league. I think they can probably 0:14:31.200 --> 0:14:33.920 put Jordan Poyer on Evan Ingram. I don't expect to 0:14:33.920 --> 0:14:35.960 blow it here, okay, but one and a half is 0:14:36.000 --> 0:14:39.200 completely irrelevant. I talked about it on Monday about you know, 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:41.160 the switch. If it was the Giants one and a half, 0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:43.440 it would essentially be the same thing because you're under 0:14:43.440 --> 0:14:45.600 those key numbers. It really doesn't make a difference. I 0:14:45.640 --> 0:14:47.240 do expect the Bills to win here, so I am 0:14:47.240 --> 0:14:49.200 going to take them laying a point and a half. 0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:52.760 You're not worried at all about how they weren't able 0:14:52.840 --> 0:14:55.840 to run the ball very well or they were able 0:14:55.880 --> 0:14:57.720 to stuff Dallas's run game of the week before. I 0:14:57.720 --> 0:14:59.560 mean that does that concern you at all? Only two 0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:01.400 nine six yards percarry last week? 0:15:01.560 --> 0:15:04.880 Are you asking me if I'm worried about the Giants defense. 0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:05.840 Is that what you're asking? 0:15:06.000 --> 0:15:08.520 I mean, I just I'm just Devil's advocate. I like it. 0:15:08.600 --> 0:15:10.560 I like you. I like you trying to stare the 0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:13.560 pop man. It's okay. No, I in no way am 0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:16.880 I concerned about the Giants. The Giants rush. Look, Dallas 0:15:16.880 --> 0:15:20.680 did whatever they wanted, and I love Dallas. I mean, 0:15:20.720 --> 0:15:23.440 I think their offense is going to be really great 0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:25.640 right now with Kellen Moore sort of figuring things up. 0:15:25.720 --> 0:15:26.800 It's an offense to watch. 0:15:26.880 --> 0:15:29.320 Yeah, it really is. And but you know, I really 0:15:29.320 --> 0:15:31.000 think here, I again, I don't expect this to be 0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:32.880 a blowout, but you know, some of it is that 0:15:32.960 --> 0:15:34.720 it's like, well, it's the Bill's second road game in 0:15:34.720 --> 0:15:36.520 a row. It's a second road game, but it's in 0:15:36.560 --> 0:15:39.040 the same place, and it's in New York, and they're 0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:40.920 they're from Buffalo. I went to school in Buffalo. I 0:15:40.960 --> 0:15:42.840 grew up in the Dorphen. It's an easy trip. It's 0:15:42.880 --> 0:15:44.720 not a big deal. I really don't think that's going 0:15:44.760 --> 0:15:46.600 to be a big deal. So for me picking against 0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:49.200 the Giants, at least at the early going, I'm happy 0:15:49.240 --> 0:15:51.400 to do that. So for me, Bill's laying one and 0:15:51.440 --> 0:15:53.040 a half. All right, let's get to your final pick. 0:15:53.040 --> 0:15:53.560 What do you got? 0:15:53.720 --> 0:15:57.280 My final pick, which is funny you mentioned this is 0:15:57.280 --> 0:15:59.320 is the Cowboys at minus five and a half and 0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:00.960 which is now minus six. 0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:03.160 It's been moving, by the way. It was four and 0:16:03.200 --> 0:16:04.680 a half when we first talked about it. 0:16:04.680 --> 0:16:06.000 It was four and a half, and it was five 0:16:06.040 --> 0:16:07.240