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Speaker 1: Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of

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Speaker 1: the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. Week one is pretty

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Speaker 1: wild and as we do every year, we learned a

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Speaker 1: ton mostly don't ever bet against the Chiefs because it's

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Speaker 1: going to give you a sick feeling watching the game,

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Speaker 1: regardless of how it's going. Now, this is our Thursday show,

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Speaker 1: so as we're gonna do every week, we'll talk about

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Speaker 1: some of our best bets, either against the spread or

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Speaker 1: over unders. We'll give you a bet to avoid, and

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Speaker 1: then we're going to give you our favorite player prop

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Speaker 1: bet for the week. And with me today to break

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Speaker 1: it all down is Andrew Cayley, a senior publishing editor

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Speaker 1: at Covers. Andrew runs the gamut in terms of sports

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Speaker 1: betting advice, including the NBA, MLB, PGA, and of course

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Speaker 1: the NFL, and you can find him on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: Covers Underscore. Kaylee, Andrew, how's it going, man?

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Speaker 2: It's going really well? Really excited to be here.

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Speaker 1: Am I the first person to pronounce your name correctly.

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Speaker 2: In this season? I believe?

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Speaker 3: So?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, that's good because I try. I'm like a

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Speaker 1: stickler about pronunciation. So all right, I'll just pull the

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Speaker 1: curtain back a little bit. I asked you like four

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Speaker 1: times right before we got on you I did. I

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Speaker 1: mean it's bad. By the way, Andrew's name is spelled

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Speaker 1: c a l e y, So when you're at his

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Speaker 1: Twitter and at covers underscore c A L E why.

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Speaker 1: I like to pretend I'm smarter than I am. But

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Speaker 1: in the end, I've got to give it up. I

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Speaker 1: was ready for CALLI, but I like to clean it

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Speaker 1: up right before we go. All right, all right, are

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Speaker 1: you ready? Are you ready to dive into week two?

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Speaker 2: I'm ready? All right.

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Speaker 1: As always, we're going to get started with pick six,

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Speaker 1: where both Andrew and I are going to give three

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Speaker 1: of our favorite bets for this weekend, either against the

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Speaker 1: spread or on the over under. Now do you get that, Andrew?

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Speaker 1: I mean it's picked six because we're making six. I

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Speaker 1: would take credit for it, but it was actually made

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Speaker 1: by our last guest Ian McMillan. I want to give

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Speaker 1: him credit. But as always, I'm going to note at

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Speaker 1: the outset that we are recording this shortly before kickoff

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Speaker 1: of the Thursday night game. So we are not going

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Speaker 1: to be making any picks on the Panthers Bucks game.

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Speaker 1: But if you want to see how I picked that game,

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Speaker 1: you can go to bettingpros dot com. That's going to

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Speaker 1: show you how I and basically every betting expert who

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Speaker 1: makes picks on that site made their picks for every

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Speaker 1: single game. We're also going to be using the bettingpros

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Speaker 1: dot com consensus odds and making our picks. Those are

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Speaker 1: the aggregate odds that you'll find available in the market.

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Speaker 1: All right, Andrew, let's get it started. Who is your

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Speaker 1: first pick?

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Speaker 3: My first pick is my favorite pick of the week,

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Speaker 3: even though I just am looking at your consensus odds

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Speaker 3: here and I see they've moved to minus three and

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Speaker 3: a half as opposed to minus three. But there's a

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Speaker 3: couple of threes out there, and that's the Titans this

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Speaker 3: week as they host the Colts.

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Speaker 2: I really really.

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Speaker 3: Liked the Titans last week. They shocked a lot of people.

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Speaker 3: They derailed that Brian Brown's hype trained pretty quickly. But

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Speaker 3: one of the hardest things to do when betting football,

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Speaker 3: especially early in the season, is not to overreact to

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Speaker 3: things we've just seen. But that said, the Titans looked

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Speaker 3: really good. They were balanced on offense, they were stout

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Speaker 3: on defense, caused turnovers. It was just really in persons,

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Speaker 3: impressive overall. And now there's no Andrew Luck for the Colts,

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Speaker 3: and he owned the Titans. But when Tennessee played the

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Speaker 3: Colts without Andrew Luck, they went two to zero straight

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Speaker 3: up and against the spread. In twenty seventeen, that's when

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Speaker 3: Brissett was starting for one of those ailments Luck ailments.

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Speaker 3: I forget which one exactly it was, but he was

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Speaker 3: not playing and they did well in those games. I

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Speaker 3: know the Colts offensive line and the defensive line and

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Speaker 3: offensive line and defense are much better now, but I

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Speaker 3: think that's not gonna be enough to cover the number

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Speaker 3: on the road. I think the Titans are going to

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Speaker 3: sell out to stop Marlin mack here. He had a

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Speaker 3: pretty big week one. But they've got a really solid secondary.

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Speaker 3: So if they sell out to stop Mac, then they

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Speaker 3: can rely on those guys on the back end to

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Speaker 3: limit Persett and what he can do. And the key

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Speaker 3: for the Titans on offense I think is gonna be

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Speaker 3: Delaney Walker. He's fully healthy and it showed last week.

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Speaker 3: He hauled in two touchdowns, so I like that a

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Speaker 3: lot of him a lot, and have him in a

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Speaker 3: lot of DFS lineups this week, so I'm excited about that.

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Speaker 3: And the Colts were one of the worst teams in

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Speaker 3: the NFL last year when it came to defending ten ends,

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Speaker 3: so I can see him having a big impact in

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Speaker 3: this game. I like the Titans by minus three and

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Speaker 3: a half now.

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Speaker 1: And you're okay with that half point move, then.

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Speaker 2: I like I did.

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Speaker 3: I saw that earlier when I was when I was

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Speaker 3: looking doing some more research here that it moved.

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Speaker 2: I personally have a three.

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Speaker 3: It makes me a little uncomfortable, but but I'm still

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Speaker 3: confident in saying the Titans, little Titans will win this

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Speaker 3: by by at least four points.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: One of the things that we do at bettingpros dot

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Speaker 1: com is in taking the aggregate consensus odds, we show

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Speaker 1: you the odds that are available in a bunch of

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Speaker 1: in a bunch of sports books. So while three and

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Speaker 1: a half is the aggregate line, FanDuel is still offering

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Speaker 1: it at minus three, as is points bet. So in

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Speaker 1: the end, you can shop around a little bit and

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Speaker 1: get the best line you want. But you're saying regardless,

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Speaker 1: you still you feel a little less comfortable, but you're

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Speaker 1: still good with it. You're still good with it at

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Speaker 1: three and a half.

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Speaker 3: I'm still good with a three and a half. But if

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Speaker 3: you can find the three out there, jump on it

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Speaker 3: as soon as you can.

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Speaker 1: All right, Well, sixty five percent of experts. I don't

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Speaker 1: want to. I don't want to get you upset. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna start off on like a really fun you know,

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Speaker 1: you and I are getting along, but sixty five percent

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Speaker 1: of experts on this one are backing the colts with

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Speaker 1: that's so you know we're gonna have to We're gonna

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Speaker 1: have to see about that. That's obviously not always indicative necessarily.

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Speaker 2: Will mark it down.

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Speaker 1: We'll mark it down. Well, remember you and I'll talk

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Speaker 1: after this, no problem. Well, look, last week I did

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Speaker 1: all spreads because I just couldn't find enough over unders

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Speaker 1: that I really liked. But one of my picks actually,

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Speaker 1: and it works that it goes here right directly from yours,

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Speaker 1: is I actually like the Titan and Cult game to

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Speaker 1: come under forty four and a half. So I know

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Speaker 1: both teams scored a lot last week. Of course I

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Speaker 1: don't really see that happening here. I mean, the Titans

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Speaker 1: scored forty three points last week, but they had twelve

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Speaker 1: at halftime, and then Mayfield through the three interceptions on

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Speaker 1: consecutive drives in the second half. The Titans scored twenty

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Speaker 1: one points in the fourth quarter and they had a

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Speaker 1: pick six. So I kind of think that we can

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Speaker 1: throw that out for the most part, and I don't now,

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Speaker 1: And I really have never had much faith in the

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Speaker 1: Tennessee offense. I'm not a buyer into Marcus Mariota. I

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Speaker 1: don't think they want to be an explosive offense right. Conversely,

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Speaker 1: I do have faith in their defense. They had a

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Speaker 1: great pass roster last week against the Browns, they had

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Speaker 1: five sacks. The secondary is more than adequate. I have

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Speaker 1: faith in Mike frabl I like GMPS. Then you look

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Speaker 1: at the Colts. I preached a bit in the preseason

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Speaker 1: that I didn't expect the Colts offense to drop off

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Speaker 1: into the Abyss. I think Jacoby Brissett is more than

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Speaker 1: capable here. They have a great offensive line, They've got

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Speaker 1: enough playmakers to be dangerous, But realistically, I don't think

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Speaker 1: they're the type of offense that's going to be able

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Speaker 1: to put up a ton of points consistently, even though

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Speaker 1: they did get to twenty four last week against a

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Speaker 1: solid Chargers defense. Now, their defense struggled last week right

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Speaker 1: against the Chargers, but they did sack Rivers four times,

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Speaker 1: they had two takeaways, and the Browns were able to

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Speaker 1: get a lot of pressure on Mariota they had four

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Speaker 1: sacks as well. So look, this is a similar defense

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Speaker 1: to last year. The Titans scored twenty seven points combined

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Speaker 1: against the Colts in both matchups. I think it's going

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Speaker 1: to be a tight, low scoring game, so I'm going

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Speaker 1: to take the under here for what it's worth. I

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Speaker 1: checked just you know what I like to do, and

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Speaker 1: I explained it last week is when I have a

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Speaker 1: feeling about a game, I like to just check how

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Speaker 1: the money is coming in on it, necessarily if there's

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Speaker 1: any difference, right exactly now, I didn't really see any

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Speaker 1: difference here with the smart money, but roughly ninety five

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Speaker 1: percent of the money last time I checked was generally coming

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Speaker 1: in on the under. Now that does far outweigh the

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Speaker 1: number of bets. It doesn't. It's not there are there

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Speaker 1: are markers that you know for me, when I look

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Speaker 1: at something, you can tell, right when it's when it's

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Speaker 1: really sharp, I can't necessarily tell that this is what

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Speaker 1: it is, but that the amount of money coming in

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Speaker 1: does outweigh the number of bets that are coming in,

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Speaker 1: although again it is on the under, so for me

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Speaker 1: that that is at least a small signal that the

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Speaker 1: under is popular by sharp betters. And again it's one

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Speaker 1: of these things. I think it's gonna be close, and realistically,

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Speaker 1: I was a little nervous about this game. I get

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Speaker 1: nervous on Division games, man. I mean, I get it,

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Speaker 1: you know, but these teams know each other pretty well.

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Speaker 1: Of course it's not Andrew Luck, but I do think

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be hard fought, and I think it's gonna

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Speaker 1: be defensive. So I three and a half or three

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Speaker 1: that might have been one actually, which I could have

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Speaker 1: listed as the one to avoid. I'm not gonna do

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Speaker 1: it right now because it's up there. Yeah, I get it,

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Speaker 1: you know, I'm just trying to, you know, get your

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Speaker 1: going over here.

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Speaker 2: But oh it's good. It's you're doing a good job.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Are you mad?

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Speaker 2: Now?

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Speaker 1: Are you ready to go? And just kind of be

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Speaker 1: like it's gonna come. It's gonna be a sixty point game.

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Speaker 1: What are you talking about?

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Speaker 3: It's funny because I didn't I specifically didn't put Mariota

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Speaker 3: in my notes because he's very polarizing, and you had

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Speaker 3: to go talk about Mariota.

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Speaker 2: I I am a.

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Speaker 1: Cornerback of a team that I'm saying is gonna come under.

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Speaker 1: It's hard to avoid him.

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Speaker 3: He's I have been a Mariota apologist for a long time,

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Speaker 3: so I was really excited to see his I know,

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Speaker 3: as a lot of those yards came from that one

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Speaker 3: pretty incredible Henry run last week or catch and run.

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Speaker 3: But I still hold a little hope that he's not

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Speaker 3: going to be a bust.

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Speaker 1: Well. Look, I think the one thing that we can

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Speaker 1: all agree at least about Mariota is he doesn't have

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Speaker 1: mono nucleosis and is going to be out for three weeks.

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Speaker 1: Like the quarterback of my favorite team, Sam Barl of

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Speaker 1: the Jets. It's a rough exist. I just man, it's

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Speaker 1: not my fault. I'm from Queen's Jets and Matt's I'm

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Speaker 1: going to live and die with them. So I'm a

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Speaker 1: pretty miserable human being as you might imagine. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's get to your second pick. What do you got

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Speaker 1: for me.

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Speaker 3: My second pick here is the Chiefs and Raiders over

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Speaker 3: fifty three and a half. You just said he didn't

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Speaker 3: do any totals this week, so I'm glad we get

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Speaker 3: to jump into them.

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Speaker 2: Now. What can I say? I don't know. It's Anon

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Speaker 2: you mentioned it. The Chiefs.

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Speaker 3: The Chiefs are gonna give people headaches of the same

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Speaker 3: Chiefs as they were last year. They lost Tyreek Hill

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Speaker 3: in the second series. I think it was they still

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Speaker 3: put up a forty burger on the Jags d and

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Speaker 3: if the Jags are gonna give up forty points, what

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Speaker 3: are the Raiders gonna do.

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Speaker 2: I'm not worried about Hill being out at all.

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Speaker 3: Sam Waukins obviously stepped up big last week, incredible game,

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Speaker 3: and they still have Travis Kelcey. Of course, for me,

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Speaker 3: Tyreek Hill is more like a luxury than a necessity

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Speaker 3: for the Chiefs. He's great to have, sure, but this

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Speaker 3: offense is all about Mahomes and he's the type of

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Speaker 3: guy who makes everyone around him better. I mean, look

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Speaker 3: at Damian Williams. He was an afterthought prior to this

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Speaker 3: season for the most part, like and now he's a

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Speaker 3: guy you have to have in all of your fantasy

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Speaker 3: lineups like He's just that's how good Mahomes is. As

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Speaker 3: for the Raiders with ab Gone, Last Gone, they looked

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Speaker 3: focused on Monday Night and it was David Carr was

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Speaker 3: very efficient, which is a little shocking. He was against

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Speaker 3: a good Broncos D. They didn't play well, obviously, but

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Speaker 3: the key for the Raiders for me is if that

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Speaker 3: O line can give cart time and can keep him upright,

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Speaker 3: he's gonna hit receivers and I think he's gonna be

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Speaker 3: able to do that this week against the Chiefs.

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Speaker 2: He's getting some.

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Speaker 3: Help now too with Josh Jacobs in the backfield and

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Speaker 3: they're going against the Chiefs D. That allowed a rookie

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Speaker 3: in Gardner Minshew, who I'm a big fan of.

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Speaker 1: By the way, go was are you actually? Are you

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Speaker 1: the one? You're one?

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Speaker 2: I love Gardner Minshew.

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Speaker 3: I love I don't know if it's just like the

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Speaker 3: cult following or whatever, but I honestly don't think he's

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Speaker 3: that much of a drop off from Nick Foles. I

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Speaker 3: know that might be that might be sacrileged to some

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Speaker 3: people in Philly, but I just he's he's a talented

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Speaker 3: passer and he went twenty two for twenty five for

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Speaker 3: tw hundred and seventy five yards and two scores.

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Speaker 2: It is NFL debut, Come you off the bench, Like.

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Speaker 1: I get it. And it's hard to know whether or not,

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Speaker 1: but I think the point essentially that you're making really

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Speaker 1: is it speaks volumes as to the Chiefs defense.

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Speaker 2: Or the lack of chief the lack of defense.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think that, Look, this is the highest

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Speaker 1: over under of the week, I mean, higher than the

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Speaker 1: Rams and the Saints. Okay, so which I also like.

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Speaker 1: By the way, you like the over on that one too.

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna hold you as one of your three,

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Speaker 1: but that was one one that you'd like to as well.

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Speaker 1: All right, all right, well, I look this is this

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Speaker 1: is I don't think you're going out on a limb here.

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Speaker 1: I agree. I mean, the thing about the Chiefs is

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Speaker 1: that it's just we're I agree, he'll I mean, he

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Speaker 1: adds something, of course, without it, very talent, without a doubt,

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Speaker 1: without that, he's a great receiver. But I don't think

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Speaker 1: that it's going to have that much of an impact

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Speaker 1: on how much they're going to be able to score,

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Speaker 1: as they showed last week where he missed the majority

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Speaker 1: of the game, and Travis Kelsey wasn't even involved last week,

289
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Speaker 1: so they can do it in a number of ways.

290
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Speaker 1: And the Raiders looked kind of competent on right. Absolutely

291
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Speaker 1: very strange, not expecting. I mean, betters are are totally

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Speaker 1: agreeing with you here. The vast majority of the money

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Speaker 1: is on the over.

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Speaker 3: It's a bit of a it's a bit of a

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Speaker 3: square play. I would say it's a square play, but

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Speaker 3: I don't. I think winning money money.

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Speaker 1: You don't apologize. You don't apologize for anything. You're like, well,

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Speaker 1: I don't know, buddy, you take it to the bank

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Speaker 1: if you've got one. I agree with you. I agree

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Speaker 1: with you here totally. I'm gonna I'm gonna bring back

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Speaker 1: now into being you know, on the same page. I

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Speaker 1: totally agree with you on this one. I do think

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Speaker 1: it's going to go over. I don't think I would

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Speaker 1: ever bet under on a Chiefs gal like, I don't

305
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Speaker 1: know what line they'd have to set because it's such

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Speaker 1: an uncomfortable feeling whenever Mahomes is there.

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Speaker 3: You know, I remember talking about it last year when

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Speaker 3: they were supposed to play that game in Mexico City,

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Speaker 3: and we were just talking around the office wondering what

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Speaker 3: they were going to set the lineup, and we would

311
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Speaker 3: just figured it'd have to be almost seventy and it

312
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Speaker 3: still might not be enough.

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Speaker 2: It's crazy. It's crazy what the Chiefs are doing.

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Speaker 1: I know. And there again because the Raiders looked relatively

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Speaker 1: competent on offense. I mean, I would not be concerned here,

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Speaker 1: Landil Overner. So over fifty three and a half, that's

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Speaker 1: a good one. All right, I'll get to my next one,

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Speaker 1: and that I'm going to take the bills laying one

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Speaker 1: and a half to the Giants. So let's start here.

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Speaker 1: Let's start here with the Giants. Okay, the Giants are

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Speaker 1: a terrible football team. My analysis of this game has

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Speaker 1: now concluded, Andrews.

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Speaker 2: So there's nothing to do with your gensation whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Okay, it's the Giants defense is really what

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Speaker 1: is truly terrible here. Okay, Janora Shenkins, he's still solid. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I'll give him that, But he is the only remotely

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Speaker 1: reliable cornerback on that entire roster right now. They blew

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Speaker 1: a ton of coverages against Dallas last week. They have

329
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Speaker 1: absolutely no pass rush. They hit Prescott twice last week,

330
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Speaker 1: even though they blitzed about forty percent of the time.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they have any real ability to stop

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Speaker 1: a cohesive offense in my opinion all right now, whether

333
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Speaker 1: the Bills have a cohesive offense, that's a fair question,

334
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Speaker 1: and it's why the spread is at one and a half.

335
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Speaker 1: But I watched the Bills Jets game closely last week.

336
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Speaker 1: As I told you, I'm a Jets fan, and even

337
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Speaker 1: though it was partly because the Jets were without CJ.

338
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Speaker 1: Moseley in the second half, I think the Bills figured

339
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Speaker 1: a few things out, which is why I think they

340
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Speaker 1: were able to move the ball better. I expect Devin

341
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Speaker 1: Singletary to have a much bigger role here, regardless of

342
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Speaker 1: if Frank Orr gets the start. I love John Brown,

343
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Speaker 1: who looks healthy and strong. Josh Allen has a great

344
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Speaker 1: rushing ability. I think he sort of calmed down. I

345
00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:04,400
Speaker 1: know he's still inaccurate, but he kind of got it

346
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Speaker 1: on there. I mean, he's never going to be the

347
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Speaker 1: most accurate guy, but he got it under control. I

348
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Speaker 1: think the Bills are going to be able to put

349
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Speaker 1: up points here and I'm really not confident that the

350
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Speaker 1: Giants will do much. And that's particularly with Sterling Shepard,

351
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Speaker 1: who is still in the concussion protocol. As of today,

352
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Speaker 1: he miss practice. I believe he's still in the concussion

353
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Speaker 1: protocol at least miss practice, so he may miss this game.

354
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Speaker 1: I like the Bills defense. They had four sacks last week,

355
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Speaker 1: they had five quarterback hits, nine tackles for a loss,

356
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Speaker 1: and we know about Tredevius White being one of the

357
00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:31,200
Speaker 1: better quarterbacks in the league. I think they can probably

358
00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:33,920
Speaker 1: put Jordan Poyer on Evan Ingram. I don't expect to

359
00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:35,960
Speaker 1: blow it here, okay, but one and a half is

360
00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:39,200
Speaker 1: completely irrelevant. I talked about it on Monday about you know,

361
00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:41,160
Speaker 1: the switch. If it was the Giants one and a half,

362
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Speaker 1: it would essentially be the same thing because you're under

363
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Speaker 1: those key numbers. It really doesn't make a difference. I

364
00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:47,240
Speaker 1: do expect the Bills to win here, so I am

365
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Speaker 1: going to take them laying a point and a half.

366
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Speaker 3: You're not worried at all about how they weren't able

367
00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:55,840
Speaker 3: to run the ball very well or they were able

368
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Speaker 3: to stuff Dallas's run game of the week before. I

369
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Speaker 3: mean that does that concern you at all? Only two

370
00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:01,400
Speaker 3: nine six yards percarry last week?

371
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Speaker 1: Are you asking me if I'm worried about the Giants defense.

372
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Speaker 1: Is that what you're asking?

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Speaker 2: I mean, I just I'm just Devil's advocate. I like it.

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Speaker 1: I like you. I like you trying to stare the

375
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Speaker 1: pop man. It's okay. No, I in no way am

376
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Speaker 1: I concerned about the Giants. The Giants rush. Look, Dallas

377
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Speaker 1: did whatever they wanted, and I love Dallas. I mean,

378
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Speaker 1: I think their offense is going to be really great

379
00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:25,640
Speaker 1: right now with Kellen Moore sort of figuring things up.

380
00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:26,800
Speaker 2: It's an offense to watch.

381
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Speaker 1: Yeah, it really is. And but you know, I really

382
00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:31,000
Speaker 1: think here, I again, I don't expect this to be

383
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Speaker 1: a blowout, but you know, some of it is that

384
00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:34,720
Speaker 1: it's like, well, it's the Bill's second road game in

385
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Speaker 1: a row. It's a second road game, but it's in

386
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Speaker 1: the same place, and it's in New York, and they're

387
00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:40,920
Speaker 1: they're from Buffalo. I went to school in Buffalo. I

388
00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:42,840
Speaker 1: grew up in the Dorphen. It's an easy trip. It's

389
00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:44,720
Speaker 1: not a big deal. I really don't think that's going

390
00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:46,600
Speaker 1: to be a big deal. So for me picking against

391
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Speaker 1: the Giants, at least at the early going, I'm happy

392
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Speaker 1: to do that. So for me, Bill's laying one and

393
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Speaker 1: a half. All right, let's get to your final pick.

394
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Speaker 1: What do you got?

395
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Speaker 3: My final pick, which is funny you mentioned this is

396
00:15:57,280 --> 00:15:59,320
Speaker 3: is the Cowboys at minus five and a half and

397
00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:00,960
Speaker 3: which is now minus six.

398
00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:03,160
Speaker 1: It's been moving, by the way. It was four and

399
00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:04,680
Speaker 1: a half when we first talked about it.

400
00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:06,000
Speaker 3: It was four and a half, and it was five

401
00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:07,240
Speaker 3: and a half, and then it was down to five

402
00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:09,280
Speaker 3: again earlier this morning, and now it's up to six.

403
00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:14,080
Speaker 3: So I'm happy taking this line almost at anything under

404
00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:18,240
Speaker 3: a touchdown, those between four and a half and five

405
00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:20,520
Speaker 3: and a half six, that's almost It's kind of like

406
00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:22,600
Speaker 3: that one and a half, like it doesn't matter. But

407
00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:25,200
Speaker 3: this seems like this seems like an overreaction line to me.

408
00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:28,280
Speaker 3: The Cowboys should be more like a touchdown favorite. I

409
00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:31,200
Speaker 3: think this is in response to Washington who played one

410
00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:32,600
Speaker 3: good half of football.

411
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, does that bother you at all? Because

412
00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:39,120
Speaker 1: they did look surprisingly good? Or were they have twenty seven?

413
00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:40,360
Speaker 2: I think it was to me?

414
00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:42,600
Speaker 3: That was for me, it was all about the Eagles

415
00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:45,240
Speaker 3: just being hyped up for their home opener and just

416
00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:46,400
Speaker 3: like kind of coming out.

417
00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:46,880
Speaker 2: A little flat.

418
00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:48,880
Speaker 3: It was all about the Eagles for me. In that case,

419
00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:51,080
Speaker 3: and I was I was a little shocked. I will

420
00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:53,240
Speaker 3: say I was a little shocked that Keenum was able

421
00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:56,240
Speaker 3: to throw as well as he was at points in

422
00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:58,200
Speaker 3: that game. But they almost got shut out in the

423
00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:00,600
Speaker 3: second half and he racked. Keenum racked up a lot

424
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Speaker 3: of yards on that final drive, which meant nothing. So

425
00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:06,480
Speaker 3: I think there's something to be said there Cowboys. Like

426
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Speaker 3: you said, the Cowboys looked good last week against the Giants,

427
00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:12,320
Speaker 3: they I guess, I guess you say they limited Saquon

428
00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:15,280
Speaker 3: as much as anyone can hope to sort of thing like.

429
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Speaker 1: I was that they blew him out so much that

430
00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:19,879
Speaker 1: they couldn't run.

431
00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:21,360
Speaker 2: With them exactly though, But that's the thing.

432
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Speaker 3: They they were good enough that which is going to

433
00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:25,480
Speaker 3: be a problem for Saquon for a long time. I

434
00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:29,439
Speaker 3: think that he can't be a productive part of the

435
00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:31,600
Speaker 3: game plan if they're down by so much all the time.

436
00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:35,080
Speaker 3: So Dak look awesome. He's not still not worth forty

437
00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:38,159
Speaker 3: million dollars a season, but he still looks awesome. I

438
00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:40,440
Speaker 3: think this is another week for Zeke to kind of

439
00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:43,679
Speaker 3: get his football legs back under them. Yeah, So, I

440
00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:46,439
Speaker 3: just don't see that Washington has much of a chance here,

441
00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:49,320
Speaker 3: they're gonna put up some yards. Their defense, on the

442
00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:52,240
Speaker 3: other hand, especially in the second half, looked like moving

443
00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:54,680
Speaker 3: around in the secondary looked so slow. I couldn't I

444
00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:56,240
Speaker 3: couldn't imagine how slow they looked.

445
00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:59,160
Speaker 2: It was. It was. It was a weird thing to watch.

446
00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:03,040
Speaker 2: So I'm taking the Cowboys at anything less than a touchdown.

447
00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:06,320
Speaker 1: I am in one agreement with you. Anything less than

448
00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:08,280
Speaker 1: touch on it, I'm fine with. I was really shocked

449
00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:10,359
Speaker 1: the line when it opens seemed like it was begging

450
00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:13,000
Speaker 1: people to take the Cowboys, which always makes me worry,

451
00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:17,520
Speaker 1: right because they know something we don't. Okay, something's going

452
00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:20,200
Speaker 1: on here that we don't. The line has moved, I don't.

453
00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:22,399
Speaker 1: I think it was pretty well known that Darius Skys

454
00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:24,960
Speaker 1: would be out for the game, regardless he's he's now

455
00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:29,200
Speaker 1: out six to eight weeks. I mean, look, he looked.

456
00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:31,639
Speaker 1: He looked great for the first you know, several games

457
00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:34,880
Speaker 1: of last year he did before tapering off. But either way,

458
00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:39,160
Speaker 1: I agree, I don't buy this Redskins offense, at least

459
00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:41,040
Speaker 1: what they showed in the beginning. I certainly don't buy

460
00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:41,520
Speaker 1: the defense.

461
00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:44,560
Speaker 2: Although I took some good players they.

462
00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:46,160
Speaker 1: They I think I undersold them a little bit coming

463
00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:48,560
Speaker 1: into the season. They they I took a deeper dive

464
00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:50,320
Speaker 1: into them, and they are better than what I expect.

465
00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:53,200
Speaker 1: A lot of it, honestly is that I think these

466
00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:55,480
Speaker 1: skies the limit for the Cowboys is here. I am

467
00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,040
Speaker 1: really all in on the offense. I mean, well, the

468
00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:00,320
Speaker 1: Giants are terrible again, so what we'll have to really see.

469
00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:04,480
Speaker 1: I'm just I don't want to draw too many conclusions

470
00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:07,560
Speaker 1: from one game against like a really terrible defense. But

471
00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:11,120
Speaker 1: I do think that Kellen Moore seemed creative. They let

472
00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:14,439
Speaker 1: Dak throw deeper than he usually does. I think Gallup

473
00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:17,679
Speaker 1: is taking the next step. I do expect Dallas to

474
00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:19,800
Speaker 1: win handle it. It always makes me a little nervous,

475
00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:21,760
Speaker 1: as we talked about with the Titans Cults taking a

476
00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:24,920
Speaker 1: divisional game, just because these teams know each other incredibly well.

477
00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:26,720
Speaker 1: But I'm one hundred percent with you, as are the

478
00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:31,119
Speaker 1: expert consensus. Seventy eight percent of betters are taking the

479
00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:33,680
Speaker 1: Cowboys in this one at that spread, so I agree

480
00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:36,480
Speaker 1: with you. We're one percent on the same page. For

481
00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:38,960
Speaker 1: my last pick, I am going to again take another

482
00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:42,040
Speaker 1: over under which I'm I'm gonna have it here and

483
00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:45,520
Speaker 1: I'm going to start with the under on the Chargers Lions.

484
00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:48,280
Speaker 1: Now that's set at forty eight. Now, the spread here

485
00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:51,000
Speaker 1: is the Chargers laying two and a half and it

486
00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:54,720
Speaker 1: has been there pretty much forever. And I did like

487
00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:57,359
Speaker 1: that at first, But now that you've got Hunter Henry

488
00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:00,399
Speaker 1: out sounds like Mike sounds like Mike will Diiams is

489
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:02,119
Speaker 1: going to miss the game as well, it's a little

490
00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:04,840
Speaker 1: hard to really support the Chargers with it being below

491
00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:06,840
Speaker 1: the key number. But the forty eight that feels to

492
00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:09,760
Speaker 1: me like given the lines a little too much credit

493
00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,119
Speaker 1: for what they were able to do against a really bad.

494
00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,359
Speaker 2: Arizona, really bad Arizona not.

495
00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,040
Speaker 1: Good in any way, shape or form. Now, look, I

496
00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:21,119
Speaker 1: do I do like t. J. Hogginson a lot, and

497
00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,760
Speaker 1: they do have It opens up a new dimension for

498
00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,359
Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford and the Chargers, surprise, surprise, are dealing with

499
00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:29,639
Speaker 1: a ton of injuries. They've got an injuries at cornerback

500
00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:32,320
Speaker 1: right now. So you know, look, but in the end,

501
00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:36,000
Speaker 1: what you know here is that matt Patricia wants to

502
00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:39,920
Speaker 1: be the slow, control of the clock, running the ball

503
00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:41,840
Speaker 1: type of team. He didn't he doesn't want to really

504
00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:43,439
Speaker 1: get away from that. If he doesn't have to. That

505
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:46,119
Speaker 1: type of offense is just not conducive to scoring a

506
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:47,920
Speaker 1: lot of points. And the Chargers, I mean, they put

507
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:50,719
Speaker 1: up thirty in overtime last year, but they're not really

508
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:54,000
Speaker 1: all that explosive at this point. Austin Eckler looked great,

509
00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:57,720
Speaker 1: but he is an obvious downgrade without Melvin Gordon, no Hunter,

510
00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:00,480
Speaker 1: Henry As we just talked about, probably no Mike Williams,

511
00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 1: and honestly, with those two guys out Philip Rivers, after

512
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:05,720
Speaker 1: you get past Keenan Allen, he's going to be throwing

513
00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:09,040
Speaker 1: the ball to Travis Benjamin, Dontrell Lindman and Sean Culkin.

514
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:11,600
Speaker 1: That is not an offense that is going to go nuts.

515
00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:13,760
Speaker 1: It's also a one o'clock game. Don't forget we know

516
00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,360
Speaker 1: about West Coast teams that head east, I mean Detroit East,

517
00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:17,919
Speaker 1: quote unquote what they are. If it is a one

518
00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:20,160
Speaker 1: o'clock game, they're not usually on top of their game.

519
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:22,280
Speaker 1: So I see this as kind of a tighter and

520
00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:24,679
Speaker 1: lower scoring game. I think the total should be closer

521
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 1: to maybe forty six forty six and a half. So

522
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:28,639
Speaker 1: if I can lock it in at forty eight, I

523
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:30,520
Speaker 1: am more than happy to do that.

524
00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:32,480
Speaker 2: Kind of forgot Benjamin was still in the league. There.

525
00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 1: Oh you can never forget Travis Benjamin. Man, if you

526
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:36,920
Speaker 1: play fantasy football, then you're gonna.

527
00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 2: Know he's gonna be one random amazing catches. Oh some

528
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:41,240
Speaker 2: just incredible catches.

529
00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:45,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's got some some random he's gonna he's always

530
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,760
Speaker 1: possible to catch, uh, you know, a deep ball. But

531
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:50,399
Speaker 1: in the end, I don't think that's This game just

532
00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 1: screams to me as kind of a slug it out.

533
00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 1: Not really, you know, I don't see this as like

534
00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,160
Speaker 1: a fifty point over under for me, So I'm happy

535
00:21:58,200 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 1: to lock in the openator.

536
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, I agree. I agreed with you.

537
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:02,639
Speaker 3: I saw that number and I was like, early on

538
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:04,520
Speaker 3: this week, I was like, jeez, I'm probably gonna bet

539
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:06,720
Speaker 3: the Chargers. But just the way the way a week

540
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:09,240
Speaker 3: is gone, it is not good.

541
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:11,119
Speaker 1: It has not been a good week for the Chargers.

542
00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:13,399
Speaker 1: They deal with more injuries than any other team. I mean,

543
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:15,400
Speaker 1: it's really crazy. All right, let's just sum up here

544
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:18,679
Speaker 1: what we like for pick six, aptly named You like

545
00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:21,280
Speaker 1: the Titans length three and a half. Now you like

546
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:22,800
Speaker 1: them at three, but you like them laying three and

547
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,239
Speaker 1: a half to the Colts. You like the Cowboys who

548
00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:28,440
Speaker 1: are now laying six to the Redskins, I believe, and

549
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 1: you like the Chiefs Raiders to go over fifty three

550
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 1: and a half. Is that right?

551
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 2: That's correct?

552
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 1: All right? I like all those very good. As for me,

553
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:40,440
Speaker 1: I am going to go with the Chargers Lions under

554
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:43,600
Speaker 1: forty eight as I just said, the Titans Colts under

555
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 1: forty four and a half, and I like the Bills

556
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:48,879
Speaker 1: laying one and a half to the Giants. So before

557
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 1: we move on to our next segment, I want to

558
00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:53,200
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559
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560
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561
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562
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563
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:07,320
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564
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565
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566
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600
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601
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:46,480
Speaker 1: next segment. And I'm not going to play the drop

602
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:49,120
Speaker 1: every time, so I'll just try to do my best

603
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:54,440
Speaker 1: Admiral ackbar impersonation. It's drop that doesn't really work. I'll

604
00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:58,760
Speaker 1: come all thank you, I appreciate it. It's terrible. I gotta

605
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:01,120
Speaker 1: work on it. But you know, all right, So we're

606
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:02,919
Speaker 1: doing it as a trap, showing the one bet that

607
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 1: stood out to each of us as something that we

608
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:05,920
Speaker 1: think needs to be avoided.

609
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,320
Speaker 3: Once you kick us off, well, I think it's a

610
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:13,160
Speaker 3: little obvious, but it's got to be the Pats and Dolphins, right, Oh, goodness.

611
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 1: No, no, I'm not getting anywhere near it. I don't know,

612
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 1: but go ahead give your reason all.

613
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 3: First of all, I think the line should be more

614
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 3: between like fourteen and a half and seventeen.

615
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 1: By the way, the line is currently at eighteen and

616
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:26,600
Speaker 1: a half to eight.

617
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:29,960
Speaker 2: I have seen it as high as twenty and it's.

618
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 1: And it oh what did it open end? By the way,

619
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 1: I think when I looked at first, it was fourteen or.

620
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:35,920
Speaker 3: Something and it jumped up right away. But this is

621
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 3: once again one of these. The Pats looked amazing on

622
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:42,400
Speaker 3: Sunday night football against what was supposed to be a

623
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:44,960
Speaker 3: good Steelers team, and now might be adding a B

624
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 3: to the mix.

625
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:45,960
Speaker 2: I don't know.

626
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 3: We're not going to get into all that mess. But

627
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 3: and the Dolphins looked well insert your whatever verb you'd

628
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 3: like to use to describe how terrible they are here, Like.

629
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 1: Just how about we say the Giants' time.

630
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 2: Oh, that's it. That's a good one.

631
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 3: That's perfect, all right, like really awful, like already printing

632
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:08,399
Speaker 3: to a jersey's awful. But that said, it's one of

633
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 3: the biggest Week two lines I can I can ever remember,

634
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 3: especially for a road a road team. The Pats have

635
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,160
Speaker 3: a history of struggling in that Miami heater, or they've

636
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:21,320
Speaker 3: had a few trips down there where they're all we're gassed, like,

637
00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 3: oh well, it's Miami whatever, and they're always seem to

638
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:26,880
Speaker 3: be good for one of those are the Pats done

639
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 3: type of games where they look terrible and everyone's like, oh,

640
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 3: it's finally over, and of course it's never over.

641
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 2: But another angle here is.

642
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:37,719
Speaker 3: A little bit maybe, just maybe Belichick won't want to

643
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:42,640
Speaker 3: embarrass Florist too badly, but maybe he will.

644
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 2: I don't know, Patricia.

645
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 3: Patricia upset him with the Lions last year, so maybe

646
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:48,680
Speaker 3: he's grumbling a bit about that, or or the Pats

647
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 3: could win by forty. So like, you literally have no

648
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:54,680
Speaker 3: idea what could happen here, So stay away, just stay away.

649
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:58,360
Speaker 1: I completely a great I desperately want to take the Dolphins,

650
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:00,479
Speaker 1: and I want those never to keep going up. I

651
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:02,720
Speaker 1: don't know where it could get to where I would

652
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:05,119
Speaker 1: be okay with picking this game either. I just don't know.

653
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:07,359
Speaker 1: I mean, if you're saying you can have twenty one points,

654
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 1: I would still hesitate. I mean I might hit the Dolphins,

655
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:13,960
Speaker 1: yeah at that point, but I would still hesitate because

656
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:16,360
Speaker 1: you just don't know. The Pats can win this game

657
00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 1: by thirty five points, I mean, very easily if they

658
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:21,920
Speaker 1: decide to keep their foot on the gas. But I'm

659
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 1: completely with you, and the line just keeps moving up

660
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 1: and up and up, and I think when it's all

661
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:27,919
Speaker 1: said and done, I think it's going to be more

662
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 1: like nineteen and a half when it comes close to

663
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 1: I'm staying away. I'm staying away completely. Yeah, all right.

664
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 1: For me, it's the Packers laying three to the Vikings.

665
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:39,199
Speaker 1: I mean, first off, I mentioned divisional games scare me.

666
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 1: Two teams who know each other perhaps as well as

667
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:43,600
Speaker 1: any two teams in the league. Both of them had

668
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 1: an over under of exactly nine wins heading into the season.

669
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 1: Both of them have really strong defenses, and I don't

670
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:52,320
Speaker 1: think that we learned enough about what the Minnesota offense

671
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 1: is going to look like here last week. Dalvin Cook

672
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:58,399
Speaker 1: looked great, of course, but Cousins attempted ten passes. I mean,

673
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:00,359
Speaker 1: they didn't need to do very much. So I have

674
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:03,440
Speaker 1: a really hard time analyzing the impact of some of

675
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:06,360
Speaker 1: the offseason changes like An and Gary Kubiak. Now, if

676
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 1: I were to pick a winner here, I would probably

677
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:11,920
Speaker 1: pick the Packers. They're home, they're on extra rest. It's

678
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 1: a little tough to go against Rogers, but overall it's

679
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:17,359
Speaker 1: gonna be a really hard fought game, and the spread

680
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:19,920
Speaker 1: is right at that key number of three. This is

681
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 1: the type of game where I don't know about you.

682
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 1: I just don't want any part of it.

683
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:26,359
Speaker 3: I am in complete agreement. I'm staying away. I have

684
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 3: no idea what's going to happen. These two teams always

685
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:32,240
Speaker 3: play close games, so I'm just Everyone was speaking about

686
00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 3: the Packers. Oh, the Packers have a defense. Now, well,

687
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 3: you were playing Mitchell Trubisky.

688
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 2: We we didn't.

689
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 1: Don't speak ill of Mitch, all right, No, I think that,

690
00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:44,320
Speaker 1: But I think the defense is legit. No I do.

691
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 2: I do.

692
00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:46,720
Speaker 3: I do think it's better. I will say I agree

693
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 3: with you. I do think it's better, but I don't

694
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 3: know how we can grade them. After Mitchell looked Mitchell,

695
00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 3: are you okay calling him Mitch?

696
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 2: Are we still?

697
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 1: I'm telling what you can do? Whatever you want. I

698
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:02,200
Speaker 1: I work close with I co host a fantasy football

699
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:04,240
Speaker 1: podcast on Sunday nights. He's a Bears fan. He calls

700
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 1: him Mitch. He named his dog Mitch, so you can

701
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 1: do whatever you want to do.

702
00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 3: We were not allowed to use Mitch in my We

703
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 3: also have a very very passionate Bears fan who just

704
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 3: sits behind me in the office, So I'm not allowed

705
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:15,800
Speaker 3: to use Mitch, but I'll use it here.

706
00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 2: So I'm excited.

707
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, yeah, I think that's fair. I mean, look,

708
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 1: he did look terrible. They didn't have any preseason, which

709
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:25,040
Speaker 1: was terrible mistake in my humble opinion. So I agree

710
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 1: it's tough to really draw too many conclusions. But we

711
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 1: did know before the season coming in that the Packers

712
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 1: had certainly added a lot on the defensive side of

713
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:35,040
Speaker 1: the ball. So I do think that this is just

714
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:36,480
Speaker 1: going to be kind of a slugged out game. I

715
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:38,840
Speaker 1: think it's going to be really close and Division games

716
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:41,720
Speaker 1: generally speaking, absent the Cowboys and the Redskins, which I'm

717
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 1: fine with and I'm with you on that one. I

718
00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:46,480
Speaker 1: just kind of like to avoid. So before we finish

719
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 1: up with our best prop bets, I want to tell

720
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721
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740
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 1: final segment, Top Prop, where we will each list one

741
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 1: prop available in the market that we like.

742
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 3: Start us off, well, I'm going to go with another game.

743
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 3: I hinted that before the Saints and Rams, I think

744
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 3: it's going to be a high scoring game, and I

745
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 3: think that's going to mean good things for Robert Woods.

746
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 3: He's had almost eight and a half targets per game

747
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 3: last season, and he's continued to be Jered Goff's favorite

748
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:16,040
Speaker 3: weapon this year, with thirteen targets in Week one and

749
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 3: he caught eight of them for seventy yards. But my

750
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:20,640
Speaker 3: favorite thing about Woods in this matchup is his consistency.

751
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 3: Like there's not many guys who just he just keeps

752
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:27,080
Speaker 3: turning out catch after catch after catch, and now he

753
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 3: gets to go up against this Saint secretor that had

754
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 3: all sorts of problems with the Texans last week. Obviously,

755
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 3: the Rams don't have anyone like DeAndre Hopkins like that

756
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:40,920
Speaker 3: dude's special, but they have enough guys that are almost

757
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:44,240
Speaker 3: at that level, like Woods and Cup and even Brandon

758
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:46,480
Speaker 3: Cooks a little bit. I think multiple of these guys

759
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 3: could have big games here. The Saints also play much

760
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 3: worse traditionally outdoors than they do inside the Dome, but

761
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 3: I'd have no problem with taking Woods over his receiving

762
00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 3: yards over seventy and even if you can even take

763
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 3: his over receptions, well, I expect that to hit the

764
00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:02,720
Speaker 3: board around five and a half and he's I think

765
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,760
Speaker 3: he's gonna go over that as well. There's just Marcus

766
00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 3: Ladmore is a good cornerback, but they he can't cover everybody,

767
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 3: and even he had trouble with he was even having

768
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 3: trouble last week there against Hopkins and McVay is very

769
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 3: good at moving receivers around into the open spaces in

770
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 3: the field to get guys to make place.

771
00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 1: Out of curiosity? Is there anything that makes you feel

772
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 1: better about Woods than you would let's say, at Cup

773
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 1: or at Cooks at a similar you know over under

774
00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 1: for receiver Woods.

775
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 3: Like I said, with Woods, it's just his consistency. He's

776
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:37,800
Speaker 3: he's the guy. That's that's the security blanket, I think.

777
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 3: And if there are troubles for golf, which he has

778
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 3: shown that he can get a little rattled ever since

779
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl, and he doesn't make always the best decisions,

780
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 3: but you always have that security blanket and Woods seems

781
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:53,640
Speaker 3: to be that guy. And like I said, just the Saints,

782
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 3: the Saints defense did not look very good on Monday nights,

783
00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 3: So I really like I like Woods in the lot

784
00:32:58,400 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 3: in this matchup.

785
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 1: I really you have a hard time ever having a

786
00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 1: problem with anything with Woods going over receiving yard is

787
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:08,680
Speaker 1: one of my favorite receivers in the league. He is man,

788
00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:10,880
Speaker 1: he is He's finally starting to get his due a

789
00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:12,680
Speaker 1: little bit because they went to the Super Bowl, so

790
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:14,760
Speaker 1: people started knowing his name. But he's really one of

791
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:17,240
Speaker 1: the best receivers in the NFL. For me, I'm going

792
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 1: to go with Sony Michelle to go over seventy five

793
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 1: yards rushing, and we talked about the spread in that game.

794
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:26,440
Speaker 1: I think we both expect the Patriots to win easily,

795
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 1: as does anybody who has ever watched a football game.

796
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:32,560
Speaker 1: And look, Michelle did nothing last he did not against

797
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 1: the Steilers. I fully admit that he gained just fourteen

798
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:38,239
Speaker 1: yards and Rex Burke had looked good, but look, he

799
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 1: did look good, and it's a credited backfield. And I'm

800
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 1: not sure how I feel about Michelle long term for

801
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:45,280
Speaker 1: the rest of the season if I'm going to be

802
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 1: looking at these prop bets. But you know, he got

803
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 1: fifteen carries last week. He did nothing with him, but

804
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 1: he got fifteen carries, and assuming that he gets that again,

805
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:55,040
Speaker 1: I'd honestly feel good about him going over the seventy

806
00:33:55,040 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 1: five yard mark. If you just told me he's going

807
00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 1: to get those fifteen carries. The Dolphins allowed two hundred

808
00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:02,160
Speaker 1: and sixty five five yards rushing to the Ravens, nearly

809
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:04,719
Speaker 1: six yards per carry. But the big thing is I

810
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:07,480
Speaker 1: actually expect Michelle to get even more work. You know

811
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:08,920
Speaker 1: they're going to be ahead, and we don't you know

812
00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 1: whether or not they keep their foot on the gas

813
00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 1: or they take it off. They're probably going to be

814
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:14,759
Speaker 1: running in a fair amount. It's going to be hot.

815
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:16,160
Speaker 1: They're not going to want to have the guys get

816
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 1: to extended generally. Michelle is from South Florida. It's probably

817
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:22,000
Speaker 1: something where they're going to want to give him a

818
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 1: big game. So I could see him getting closer to

819
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:26,240
Speaker 1: twenty carries. I think he's going to beat that seventy

820
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:29,279
Speaker 1: five yards by a pretty easy march. And again, this

821
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:32,279
Speaker 1: game's difficult to kind of look at and say we

822
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:34,360
Speaker 1: think this is what's going to happen, other than you

823
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:36,799
Speaker 1: could say that the Patriots are going to win by

824
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 1: a massive amount. Whether that amount is going to be

825
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 1: more than eighteen and a half points, we're not really sure,

826
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 1: but we know they're going to win almost certainly. You

827
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:46,920
Speaker 1: don't know anything almost certainly going to win. They're going

828
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:49,719
Speaker 1: to be playing from ahead, they're going to probably at

829
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:52,319
Speaker 1: some point want to just run the ball, and I

830
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:54,840
Speaker 1: think that they're just gonna let Michelle, who's from that area,

831
00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:56,839
Speaker 1: probably have a little more run with it. So, oh,

832
00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:59,360
Speaker 1: you're right, I'll take Michelle. Yeah, over seventy five.

833
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,719
Speaker 3: A lot of fantasy stock and Sony Michelle this year,

834
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 3: so I really hope you're right.

835
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I understand it was a rough, rough beginning, it was,

836
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:09,359
Speaker 1: but it was yeah, it's all right. And again, well

837
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 1: you're avoiding the eighteen and a half bet, but I'm

838
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 1: going to get in on that game by getting Michelle

839
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 1: over seventy five. And again you like woods and it's

840
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:18,880
Speaker 1: around seventy five you're receiving, and you'd also take roughly

841
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:21,800
Speaker 1: over five and a half catches, right I would, Okay, wonderful,

842
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:23,799
Speaker 1: all right, buddy, Well that's going to do it for

843
00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:26,399
Speaker 1: today's show. Thank you Andrew for coming on. You were great.

844
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:28,279
Speaker 1: Can you remind everyone where they can find more of

845
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 1: you and your work.

846
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:31,919
Speaker 3: You can find more from me at covers dot com,

847
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 3: and you can find more for me personally at Twitter

848
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:36,239
Speaker 3: Covers Underscore.

849
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 2: Kaylee C. A. L.

850
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 3: E y, and I've got tons of football content, a

851
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:43,799
Speaker 3: lot of college football stuff too, if you like that

852
00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:44,359
Speaker 3: sort of thing.

853
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:46,520
Speaker 2: I'm a big college football junkie.

854
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:50,080
Speaker 3: And MLB postseason coming up too, so really, really a

855
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 3: lot of exciting stuff going on.

856
00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:53,759
Speaker 1: By the way, I'm I'm a huge baseball fan as well,

857
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:56,239
Speaker 1: so I encourage everyone, by the way to, you know,

858
00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:58,919
Speaker 1: really look into sports betting when it comes to MLB.

859
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:00,719
Speaker 2: It's a lot of fun stuff for baseball.

860
00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:03,839
Speaker 3: Like you mentioned five innings in one of the there, Yeah,

861
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 3: I love.

862
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:06,160
Speaker 2: I love five inning bets.

863
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:08,920
Speaker 3: I love I love, I love first innings score bets

864
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:12,759
Speaker 3: like just I love breaking down pictures and matchups with starters.

865
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 1: Lots of fun one hundred percent. And it's every day.

866
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:17,120
Speaker 1: That's the best part of it. So you don't have

867
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:19,800
Speaker 1: to wait necessarily just till Thursday or Sunday or Monday.

868
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:21,880
Speaker 1: You can do it every day. Well that's great, Andrew,

869
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 1: really thank you again for coming on. I hope we

870
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:24,239
Speaker 1: can do it again soon.

871
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 2: I can't wait, all right.

872
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:28,240
Speaker 1: I want to remind everyone before we go about bet MGM,

873
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:30,360
Speaker 1: where you can place your first wager of up to

874
00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 1: five hundred dollars risk free on the bet MGM sports

875
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:36,400
Speaker 1: app and Sideboss where they offer a ton of contests

876
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:38,560
Speaker 1: in nearly every sport for you to hone your skills

877
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:41,040
Speaker 1: as a handicapper. Good luck with your wagers this week,

878
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 1: and my friends, we'll be back breaking down the early

879
00:36:43,239 --> 00:36:44,279
Speaker 1: lines next week.

880
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 3: It's