1 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. If 5 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: I have a book of the summer, sometimes it's so 6 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:35,400 Speaker 1: far out front, so shockingly prescient given this pandemic, that 7 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:36,880 Speaker 1: I have to make it a book of the year 8 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:39,160 Speaker 1: after book. I've never done that before. I've never made 9 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:41,479 Speaker 1: a book of the year after a book of the summer. 10 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 1: I did this with Rajan's book Rugger. Rajan is at 11 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:49,879 Speaker 1: Boot School Chicago, his Public Services India, his exquisite the 12 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 1: fault Lines. But it is the third Killer, which is extraordinary. 13 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 1: It is the single most prescient economic book I've ever seen. 14 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:04,640 Speaker 1: It's on community, whether it's community or whether it's corporations 15 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:09,440 Speaker 1: understanding that we need community. Dr Rojan joins us this morning. 16 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:13,959 Speaker 1: R Go again, congratulations on leading the way in this pandemic. 17 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:16,400 Speaker 1: You and Mario Draggy have just done a group of 18 00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:20,320 Speaker 1: thirty survey on what corporations need to do? What is 19 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:26,319 Speaker 1: the community our corporations need to find uh. Well, at 20 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 1: this point, really our worry is that there's a lot 21 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:34,920 Speaker 1: of distress out there, and especially corporate distress. Of course 22 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 1: household distress also. But this report which the D thirty 23 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 1: has prepared is trying to say, well, as we come 24 00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 1: to terms with the pandemic, how do we deal with 25 00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:50,800 Speaker 1: the massive amounts of distress which is under the red 26 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 1: house green right now, especially if small and medium corporations, 27 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 1: but in many emerging markets, also for bigger funds. And 28 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 1: really the reporters awake up call that we should start 29 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 1: preparing our tools now because they will be needed in 30 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 1: big measure. They will need to be a big measure 31 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:11,040 Speaker 1: in and and uh, Lisa, we'll talk about this about 32 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:13,640 Speaker 1: the clearing of markets and the zombies that are out there. 33 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 1: Do we have a financial system now that can incentivize 34 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:22,000 Speaker 1: corporations correctly? Or is have we jury rigged it with 35 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 1: negative rates and the rest of it where they can't 36 00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 1: operate in a normal thought process. Well, I think we've 37 00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:34,800 Speaker 1: we've opened the floodgates of liquidity to anything that has 38 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:39,760 Speaker 1: even a faint pulse, right Uh. And that's the effects 39 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 1: of both the credit programs as well as the really 40 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 1: low interest rates as well as effectively the massive amount 41 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:54,720 Speaker 1: of of purchases of various forms of securities in the markets. 42 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:57,600 Speaker 1: So at this point it's hard to tell who really 43 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 1: deserves to stay afloat, uh, you know, given that they 44 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 1: have a viable business going forward, who's struggling to stay 45 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 1: has a viable business, and who simply doesn't have a 46 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:12,679 Speaker 1: viable business and we're just keeping them on life support. 47 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:18,079 Speaker 1: I think the quick and easy decision to supply liquality 48 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 1: was important. Uh there wasn't time to make you know, 49 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:25,200 Speaker 1: more detailed decisions. But as time goes on, we will 50 00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 1: have to make these more careful decisions because society can 51 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:33,079 Speaker 1: simply not afford the amount of resources that are being 52 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:36,120 Speaker 1: poured into the system. So what are some of the 53 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:39,800 Speaker 1: tools that you foresee policymakers using to determine which companies 54 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 1: are truly viable and which are zombies that need to die? Well, 55 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 1: the first is to recognize that policymakers aren't in the 56 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:50,800 Speaker 1: best place to make these decisions. They have to, uh, 57 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:55,120 Speaker 1: you know, rely on the opinion of both markets and 58 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:58,360 Speaker 1: the private sector to get this started up again in 59 00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:01,760 Speaker 1: a bigger way. So the question is one, of course, 60 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:08,320 Speaker 1: would be to start using various private sector opportunities, but 61 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 1: but in a in a less aggressive way. So, for example, 62 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:16,040 Speaker 1: if you're offering guarantees to small and medium enterprises, which 63 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 1: a lot of European countries have done, um, can you 64 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:21,599 Speaker 1: scale back those guarantees and make them not on the 65 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:25,039 Speaker 1: basis of individual loans, but may make it on pulled 66 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:29,320 Speaker 1: loan portfolios, so that you give the lender some incentive 67 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 1: to pick and choose. So that would be one example. 68 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:34,600 Speaker 1: There would be also a need for equity in many 69 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 1: firms because we've sort of reached the limits of leverage. 70 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 1: So can you in a sense find better ways of 71 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 1: infusing equity again through partnerships. We've had partnerships after the 72 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:51,159 Speaker 1: global financial crisis, the public Private investment UH partnerships that 73 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 1: we had in the US for example. So can you 74 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:56,000 Speaker 1: co invest along with the private sector and which private 75 00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:58,839 Speaker 1: sector partners do you choose and how do you measure 76 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 1: performance there? Because it has to be very transparent. But 77 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:05,400 Speaker 1: you could use those vehicles as ways of infusing equity. 78 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:08,600 Speaker 1: But you might want to infuse equity only after you've 79 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 1: forced some debt restructuring. So can we find easier ways 80 00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:17,280 Speaker 1: of debt restructuring, especially for small and medium enterprises. And 81 00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 1: do we change the bankruptcy laws. In a number of countries, 82 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:25,040 Speaker 1: the bankruptcy laws are focused on liquidating rather than restructuring, 83 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:28,480 Speaker 1: restructuring and rehabilitating. We need a lot of out of 84 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:32,240 Speaker 1: quote restructuring, but with the bankruptcy laws as a backstop 85 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:35,599 Speaker 1: in case that doesn't work, and those bankruptcy laws have 86 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:38,280 Speaker 1: to be a little more favorable to survival. These are 87 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:40,599 Speaker 1: all things we need to take care of now if 88 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:44,960 Speaker 1: we are to remove the overhang of of both zombie 89 00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 1: companies but also excessive debt on surviving healthy companies. This 90 00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 1: all sounds really logical. It sounds metal methodological, it sounds 91 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 1: like it is thought out, and yet I am still 92 00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:58,200 Speaker 1: struggling to see us move out of a regime where 93 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 1: you give liquidity to quote, you to everything that has 94 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 1: a pulse, and that we somehow avoid torpedoing markets that 95 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:07,720 Speaker 1: are relying on that liquidity going to everything that has 96 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:12,560 Speaker 1: a pulse. It is a question of timing right. What 97 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 1: you want, I think, is to ensure there is light 98 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 1: at the end of the tunnel. Light is sort of 99 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:22,600 Speaker 1: to mix metaphors is flowing into the tunnel and at 100 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:25,719 Speaker 1: that point you start moving the regime slowly and gently 101 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:30,200 Speaker 1: towards a system where this amount of support will be 102 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 1: off the table. Now at this point, as you know, 103 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:36,359 Speaker 1: we we have a debate in Washington, but whether the 104 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 1: FED should move abruptly from supporting a variety of these 105 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:44,280 Speaker 1: programs that they're already in. I would say that that 106 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 1: decision should be made by the Fed, and a little 107 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:50,839 Speaker 1: more gently, of course, in in in discussion with Congress. 108 00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 1: But it makes sense to do it when the economy 109 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 1: is back on track, largely when the uncertainty is off 110 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 1: the table, rather than when the uncertainty is building even 111 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:05,919 Speaker 1: further because the pandemic is expanding. Dr Rogan, you have 112 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:09,920 Speaker 1: a chapter in the third pillar, the pressure to promise? 113 00:07:10,760 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 1: Who the corporations oh a promise too? Obviously the shareholders, obviously, 114 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 1: the equity interests of their executives. And we've seen these 115 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 1: inequalities out there. Who do they who do they owe 116 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:26,640 Speaker 1: a promise of a better society too? Well. One of 117 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 1: the arguments I make in the book is society changes. 118 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 1: It's not the same society, uh you know it was 119 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 1: in the in the late ninety eighties and nineties, and 120 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:43,280 Speaker 1: there is far more pressure from society today on corporations. 121 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 1: And even if they're acting in the interests of their shoulder, 122 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:49,760 Speaker 1: of their shareholders, there are some things they need to 123 00:07:49,800 --> 00:07:55,280 Speaker 1: do to keep attracting young people into the companies, to 124 00:07:55,800 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 1: do the right thing by their employees. And and today 125 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:03,600 Speaker 1: there's a lot more pressure on them to ensure that 126 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:07,720 Speaker 1: the employees employees are appropriately skilled for what is to 127 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:11,320 Speaker 1: come to to invest in training in a much bigger 128 00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 1: way than they used to in the eighties and the nineties. 129 00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:18,160 Speaker 1: And this is also something that you know, is in 130 00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 1: the interests of society. It is also something that customers 131 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:24,120 Speaker 1: increasingly are paying attention to. The They're trying to ask 132 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:27,160 Speaker 1: what are your green policies? Uh, And if you work 133 00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 1: for a corporation that doesn't have reasonable green policies, then 134 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 1: the employees themselves start getting ants. So what I'm saying 135 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:39,080 Speaker 1: is that even if you're managing in the interests of 136 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:42,679 Speaker 1: your shareholders, which I think is an important focus for 137 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 1: corporate leaders, it entails taking into account both your community 138 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:53,960 Speaker 1: as well as your workers, as well as key supplies. 139 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:57,079 Speaker 1: It's not you know, you don't make a statement that 140 00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 1: we're going to treat everybody really well because that really 141 00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 1: means that you're treating nobody will but you can choose 142 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:05,800 Speaker 1: the stakeholders that you're going to focus on, and you 143 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:09,280 Speaker 1: try and work towards the congratulations on this effort with 144 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:12,439 Speaker 1: a group of thirty and with Mario dragging Robert Roger, 145 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:15,920 Speaker 1: the former RBI governor of India, and of course at 146 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:18,760 Speaker 1: the Boosh School in Chicago, we could go on and on, 147 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:26,559 Speaker 1: and we do not have the time in the mind 148 00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 1: about joining US now. Bt I G Chief Equity and 149 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:31,600 Speaker 1: Derivative Strategist, Julia, Let's just start with the line from 150 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:34,640 Speaker 1: your research. US stocks are more dependent than ever on 151 00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:36,880 Speaker 1: two things that over the last decade have been less 152 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 1: than reliable. My partisan fiscal support one public inflows. To 153 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 1: give a little bit cautious here, Julian, look, we've run 154 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:50,280 Speaker 1: a long way, um, and if I had told you 155 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:53,920 Speaker 1: a year ago that we would be where we are now, 156 00:09:54,720 --> 00:10:00,200 Speaker 1: given the economic backdrop, given the public health crisis that 157 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:03,000 Speaker 1: is directly in front of us, UH, it would have 158 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:07,120 Speaker 1: been very difficult to believe. And there's no denying it. 159 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 1: You can sort of put it in terms of interest 160 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:13,480 Speaker 1: rates at zero, but we are at all time high 161 00:10:13,520 --> 00:10:18,040 Speaker 1: valuations and to us. That's a sign that we want 162 00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:22,720 Speaker 1: to be at least balanced in the near term. I look, Julian, 163 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 1: at the balance and all that, and it also is 164 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:28,199 Speaker 1: about sector choice, and I don't mean sectors like cyclicals 165 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:32,080 Speaker 1: and that I'm talking about broad, broad global analysis. What 166 00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:35,239 Speaker 1: do you look at when you look at international, small, MidCap, 167 00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:39,760 Speaker 1: other true sectors that really can diversify away from what's 168 00:10:39,760 --> 00:10:44,440 Speaker 1: worked this year well is going to be in our view, 169 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:47,160 Speaker 1: a watershed. You're obviously for a number of reasons, but 170 00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:51,559 Speaker 1: what you've had is really fourteen years of an investment 171 00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:56,559 Speaker 1: paradigm US growth over everything else. And when we think 172 00:10:56,559 --> 00:10:59,960 Speaker 1: about one the only conclusion that we can come up 173 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 1: with is that, you know, large kept cap tech fang 174 00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 1: is no longer the only game in town. And this 175 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:11,040 Speaker 1: push for diversification, because our expectation is that we're going 176 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 1: to have global synchronized growth next year, is going to lead, 177 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:18,400 Speaker 1: in our view, to out performance in all the places 178 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:21,360 Speaker 1: that have been you know, really shunned by investors for 179 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 1: the most part, international equities, value and again an area 180 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 1: like small caps. Julian, this is the tension right now. 181 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:31,800 Speaker 1: Everybody says that those areas that have been less loved 182 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 1: will be the beneficiaries next year. And then an increasing 183 00:11:34,559 --> 00:11:36,320 Speaker 1: number of people are coming on the show and saying 184 00:11:36,600 --> 00:11:38,840 Speaker 1: it's gone a little hot recently and we're pricing in 185 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 1: a little too much. So what exactly are we pricing 186 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:44,320 Speaker 1: in right now with respect to recovery next year and 187 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:47,560 Speaker 1: with respect to some sort of financial stimulus from Washington 188 00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:52,199 Speaker 1: d C. Well, we're certainly pricing in that politicians are 189 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 1: going to get a deal done by Christmas. If you 190 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:59,079 Speaker 1: don't have that uh that that is you know, assumption 191 00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:01,840 Speaker 1: number one coming into the new year that needs to 192 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:05,760 Speaker 1: be revised downward. And then frankly, we're we're pricing in 193 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 1: what President elect Biden is talking about, is that a 194 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:11,080 Speaker 1: deal that we get over the next week is going 195 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:13,439 Speaker 1: to be a down payment on a further deal. So 196 00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:16,400 Speaker 1: there is a lot, you know, call it north of 197 00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:20,560 Speaker 1: two trillion in aggregate that we're thinking about pricing in 198 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:25,839 Speaker 1: um And in that respect, once again, even though the 199 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 1: S and P five is relatively the most expensive index 200 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:33,560 Speaker 1: out there, the fact that you've had the degree of 201 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:37,200 Speaker 1: catch up that we've had in small caps in value, 202 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:41,160 Speaker 1: he gives us, you know, more pause to be more 203 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:45,280 Speaker 1: selective at this point because the market is not crime 204 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:49,480 Speaker 1: for any sort of negative news. I asked the question 205 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:52,280 Speaker 1: earlier this week, what would actually lead to lower equity 206 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:54,520 Speaker 1: market since Julie and the individual. I asked the question 207 00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:56,720 Speaker 1: to struggle to answer it, because I think many people 208 00:12:56,760 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 1: struggle to answer that question. Through much of this year, 209 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:02,199 Speaker 1: we've come up with these neat little narratives to fit 210 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:04,040 Speaker 1: the price action on any given day. Over the last 211 00:13:04,080 --> 00:13:06,440 Speaker 1: couple of months, Julian and those narratives have swung from 212 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:09,080 Speaker 1: one extreme to another, particularly in and around the election. 213 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 1: Can you walk me through what's happening in the options market, 214 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:14,280 Speaker 1: the degree to which you think that is driving equities 215 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:17,839 Speaker 1: and the equity market more broadly, and whether you think 216 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:22,400 Speaker 1: there is a fundamental story behind it. Uh, Well, the 217 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:28,480 Speaker 1: fundamental story is that again is the year that a 218 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:31,800 Speaker 1: younger generation of investors who have been chronically under invested 219 00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:37,120 Speaker 1: in equities discovered stocks, and more so discovered options, and 220 00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:40,560 Speaker 1: more so discovered options that expire in two weeks or 221 00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:45,800 Speaker 1: less um and the activity has been absolutely frenzied. To 222 00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 1: think that the day before Thanksgiving could be among the 223 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:55,560 Speaker 1: highest option volume days of the year is absolutely preposterous 224 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:58,920 Speaker 1: by anything that we as professional investors have seen for 225 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:02,080 Speaker 1: the last twenty plus years, and yet still that's what 226 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 1: you had because the public really is to a greater degree, 227 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:09,640 Speaker 1: and we would say really more too, more so than 228 00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:13,200 Speaker 1: at the peak in two thousand. Is the marginal price 229 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 1: center in the equity markets right now and the marginal 230 00:14:16,040 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 1: price center in the options markets right now. So we 231 00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 1: are very dependent on the continuation of public flows, very 232 00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:26,720 Speaker 1: much with the way you saw after election two thousand 233 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:29,920 Speaker 1: and sixteen seventeen was really the only year in this 234 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 1: cycle where you had consistent inflows. We do believe that's possible, 235 00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 1: but you're going to need it in order to keep 236 00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:39,080 Speaker 1: stocks moving higher. You want to have the outputting changes 237 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 1: that story. Julian, thank you so much for everything. Everything 238 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,880 Speaker 1: Threwy just wonderful. Send out, best of the family. Wee 239 00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 1: your judion, Emmanuel, that of bt I G. The chief 240 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:57,000 Speaker 1: equity derivative strategist, Tom again is with Common Spirit Health. 241 00:14:57,240 --> 00:15:01,800 Speaker 1: He's our executive vice president of Physician Enterprise. And what 242 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 1: you need to know is this is the Catholic initiative 243 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:09,080 Speaker 1: across this nation. A hundred and ninety plus hospitals lined 244 00:15:09,200 --> 00:15:13,240 Speaker 1: up in the trenches of service on COVID, Tom, your 245 00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:17,520 Speaker 1: hospital chain is absolutely unique. What have you learned what 246 00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 1: is the distinctive feature common spirit and your hospitals has 247 00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:26,320 Speaker 1: learned over the last tough months. Well, we've had a 248 00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 1: lot of lessons learned, I think during this distribution phase. Uh, 249 00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:32,560 Speaker 1: we certainly know that all our markets are different. We 250 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:35,400 Speaker 1: have to work across different state lines, different cities, but 251 00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:38,760 Speaker 1: we partner locally and then we try to coordinate nationally 252 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 1: so that we can drive things like for example of 253 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 1: purchasing our refrigerators was a national effort on our part 254 00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:47,400 Speaker 1: and then distribution of that at the local sites. So 255 00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 1: we've learned a lot about you know, local distribution issues 256 00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 1: that I don't think any of us ever thought we 257 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:53,560 Speaker 1: would need to know. Dr McGinn. One thing I'm on 258 00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 1: clear on is how much the federal government is orchestrating 259 00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 1: this entire affair. What's your sense of that? Well, as 260 00:15:59,840 --> 00:16:02,240 Speaker 1: that only you know starting at the federal level, but 261 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:05,200 Speaker 1: really the hard work of distribution is occurring at the 262 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:07,360 Speaker 1: state and then the local levels. So that's why you 263 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:09,920 Speaker 1: know we're in twenty one states or a hundred thirty hospitals. 264 00:16:09,920 --> 00:16:11,400 Speaker 1: So a lot of the effort that we have to 265 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:14,520 Speaker 1: go through is thinking at the city, state, and that 266 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 1: level much more than at the federal level. Our engagement 267 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:20,760 Speaker 1: is in local communities. We are a large local community 268 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:23,720 Speaker 1: hospital serving some of the most underserved communities and all 269 00:16:23,760 --> 00:16:26,680 Speaker 1: communities across the country, so a lot of the hard 270 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:30,840 Speaker 1: work is working at that local level. I guess there's 271 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:33,360 Speaker 1: one question, which is should it be done this way? 272 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:35,720 Speaker 1: People were talking about we've been planning for the vaccine 273 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,440 Speaker 1: for a while. Should we have had some sort of 274 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 1: orchestrated way to get some of these healthcare organizations funding 275 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:45,840 Speaker 1: to buy those refrigerators to get this distribution network in place, 276 00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:48,960 Speaker 1: or should it be done on the local level. Well, 277 00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:50,840 Speaker 1: I think there's always gonna be a mixed match because 278 00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 1: I think the local level understands better where the needs 279 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 1: are and how to get things done. I do think 280 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 1: some of the larger questions, such as procurement, may have 281 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:01,640 Speaker 1: been if it had a little bit more from a 282 00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:06,119 Speaker 1: strategy naturally, so that there was an even distribution of 283 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:08,680 Speaker 1: some of these things. But I do think the certain 284 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:12,199 Speaker 1: issues around you know, where the exact vaccine is going 285 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:14,399 Speaker 1: to go on the ground in a town, in a 286 00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:17,120 Speaker 1: city is a very local decision. That would be very 287 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:19,919 Speaker 1: difficult at the federal level to do. Dr McGinn, tell 288 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 1: us about what you've learned in Los Angeles. That seems 289 00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:25,680 Speaker 1: to be the focus on this Friday morning with Dignity Health. 290 00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:29,199 Speaker 1: You've got the California Hospital Medical Center. What have you 291 00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:32,359 Speaker 1: learned about the scarcity of beds in the worst case 292 00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:37,640 Speaker 1: Los Angeles? So, you know, usually when you look closely 293 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:39,840 Speaker 1: at these problems and you start thinking about it, we 294 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 1: are able to stand up. I suse. We actually have 295 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:45,120 Speaker 1: the ventilators, we have the ppe, we have all those things. 296 00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 1: A lot of what we're struggling with is the staffing. 297 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:49,520 Speaker 1: And I know you've heard that probably across the country. 298 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:53,119 Speaker 1: So at the end of the day, it's our frontline nurses, 299 00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:57,680 Speaker 1: our respiratory texts, uh, you know, the intensive ists, the hospitalists. 300 00:17:57,720 --> 00:17:59,800 Speaker 1: Those are the folks that we need more and more 301 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 1: more of and they're becoming harder and harder to find. 302 00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:05,280 Speaker 1: Is that a solution of just higher compensation? I mean, 303 00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:07,679 Speaker 1: you mean you've been doing this for years, including at 304 00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 1: Downstate Medical here in New York. What is the solution 305 00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:14,000 Speaker 1: to short staffing in all the industries we follow? You 306 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:16,960 Speaker 1: raise compensation and they show up Is it that easy 307 00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:19,880 Speaker 1: or is it a harder mission? Well, this is much 308 00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:24,040 Speaker 1: more complicated than just compensation, because remember this was, you know, 309 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:27,200 Speaker 1: just suddenly thrown upon us. We we have the equivalent 310 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,439 Speaker 1: of opening up several new hot COVID hospitals overnight. And 311 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 1: you know that's and it was in a very specific area. 312 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:36,119 Speaker 1: It's in the med search space and the intensive care space. 313 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:38,640 Speaker 1: And it's only in the last you know, six eight 314 00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:41,880 Speaker 1: months that we needed this rapid increase of staffing. Don't 315 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:44,159 Speaker 1: appreach check your time this morning. Thank you to tell 316 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,679 Speaker 1: me again that Common Spirit Health Executive vice president of 317 00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:56,720 Speaker 1: Physician Enterprise. What we do on surveillance is trying to 318 00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:59,600 Speaker 1: do back to back conversations. We don't always succeed, but 319 00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 1: boy has it been good recently. Ben Wakray in Noyra 320 00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:05,160 Speaker 1: Rabini with us a few days ago, and right now 321 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,159 Speaker 1: we do it. Robin Rogers are going to join us 322 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:10,600 Speaker 1: here from Boost School on an incredibly important paper wrapped 323 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 1: around his book, My Book of the Year a bit ago. 324 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:17,120 Speaker 1: But Peter Hooper joins right now. Both of these gentlemen. 325 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:20,480 Speaker 1: When I m F experienced Dr Hooper of course running 326 00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:24,320 Speaker 1: research at uh Deutsche Bank, Peter Hooper, How have you 327 00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:30,240 Speaker 1: amended and changed your American labor and economic outlook off 328 00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:35,160 Speaker 1: that horrific claims report we saw yesterday. Uh? Well, Tom, 329 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:38,720 Speaker 1: you know, we've we've been to below consensus on our forecast. 330 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:42,639 Speaker 1: We're expecting to see some slowdown going into the end 331 00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:47,800 Speaker 1: of the year, given both the runoffs in the fiscal support, 332 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:52,320 Speaker 1: but more importantly the acceleration of covid um. So so 333 00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 1: that that that witness did not come as a real 334 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:58,760 Speaker 1: big surprise to us. In fact, our forecasts have been 335 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 1: enough a low consciensus that that the positive news on 336 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:09,280 Speaker 1: housing uh and on on business orders shipments of capital 337 00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:12,120 Speaker 1: goods enough to maybe maybe cause us to mark things 338 00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:16,040 Speaker 1: up a little bit. But no question, things looking really 339 00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:20,040 Speaker 1: weak both for the labor market and for consumer spending 340 00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:22,280 Speaker 1: near term. I mean the retail sales numbers we got 341 00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:27,480 Speaker 1: both for October and and the sizeable draft in November. 342 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 1: Disappointment overall, but about in line with what we're expecting. 343 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 1: Tell me about the ambiguities of the inflation call. It's 344 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:38,240 Speaker 1: one thing for an academic like region out of Chicago 345 00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 1: to pontificate about it. You guys are in the trenches. Actually, 346 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 1: Gues estimating price change. How have you shifted that call? Uh, 347 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:52,080 Speaker 1: We've We've been expecting to see inflation rise at a 348 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:55,320 Speaker 1: very low pace. I mean, there is increasing concern in 349 00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:57,920 Speaker 1: the markets about the possibility of a surge next year 350 00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:01,880 Speaker 1: as as pent up demand really drives consumer spending back up. 351 00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:04,720 Speaker 1: I mean a lot of upper income households have been 352 00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:07,480 Speaker 1: sitting on their spending savings have gone way up. There's 353 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,800 Speaker 1: a lot of wherewithal there. But the way we put 354 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:13,359 Speaker 1: the numbers together, you're talking about something like ten percent 355 00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:16,360 Speaker 1: consumer spending. It could take a big jump. And and 356 00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:19,000 Speaker 1: yes you might get a gentleman prices in some areas 357 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:21,080 Speaker 1: and j Pal like they talked about this as we 358 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:23,760 Speaker 1: can at the press conference, but that's not going to 359 00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:27,320 Speaker 1: touch off a big increase in inflation. Rental inflation is 360 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:32,040 Speaker 1: low and likely to remain remain low. Even healthcare inflation 361 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:36,240 Speaker 1: is likely to be a drag as as insurance insurance 362 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:42,240 Speaker 1: rates come down. So overall we're anticipating a slow slug 363 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:46,480 Speaker 1: getting getting core PC inflation up from the one point 364 00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:51,240 Speaker 1: six range currently to UH and it's still sounding still 365 00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:53,320 Speaker 1: below two percent as we look a couple of years olt. 366 00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:57,920 Speaker 1: How much would your economic forecast for inflation change. If 367 00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:01,720 Speaker 1: the Democrats take the Georgia race, get leadership in the Senate, 368 00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:05,080 Speaker 1: and they pass some sort of trillion dollar plus infrastructure 369 00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:10,119 Speaker 1: plant package, well at least that certainly that's a plus. 370 00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:12,800 Speaker 1: It's a plus for growth, but it's not a huge change. 371 00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:17,000 Speaker 1: I mean, Georgia does make a very important difference in 372 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:19,640 Speaker 1: a number of respects, but it isn't going to mean 373 00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:24,800 Speaker 1: a huge shift in fiscal policy. If the Democrats take Georgia, 374 00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:29,280 Speaker 1: it's basically the center of the party, the centrist or 375 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:32,080 Speaker 1: even the more conservative wing of the party that really 376 00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:35,280 Speaker 1: controls things. Joe Mansion will be very much in a 377 00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:38,080 Speaker 1: driver's seat there. So you're not going to see a 378 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 1: huge increase. You're not gonna see a two trillion dollar 379 00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:47,399 Speaker 1: package pass. You're not going to see the the Senate 380 00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:51,439 Speaker 1: get rid of Telebuster and and uh and and allow 381 00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:54,680 Speaker 1: many of the many of the things that could otherwise 382 00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:58,639 Speaker 1: have caused the economy to get back to and above 383 00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 1: pretty irish trends relatively quickly and begin to get in 384 00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:06,640 Speaker 1: place of not much more much more rapidly. So, yes, 385 00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:08,399 Speaker 1: it's a plus, but it's not a It's not a 386 00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:11,359 Speaker 1: really big one. This is actually really important and some 387 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,199 Speaker 1: slightly out of consensus Peter, other people coming on and 388 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,600 Speaker 1: saying that they expect uh that to sort of be 389 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:20,639 Speaker 1: gravy and adding into their economic forecasts. How much do 390 00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:24,679 Speaker 1: you think expectations for a significant additional follow on fiscal 391 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:28,240 Speaker 1: support package or stimulus. How much is that factoring into 392 00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:32,480 Speaker 1: outlooks that you think are too optimistic. Um, I think 393 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:36,200 Speaker 1: there is a factor there, and as Georgia race has 394 00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:41,760 Speaker 1: drawn closer, certainly that that is contributing. But I think 395 00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:44,320 Speaker 1: I think at this point and even more, the more 396 00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:47,000 Speaker 1: important factory is how quickly the economy gets back to 397 00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:51,679 Speaker 1: normal with with the vaccines and uh. You know, economic 398 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:55,679 Speaker 1: forecasters rarely have the event like this, uh with with 399 00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:58,600 Speaker 1: a tunnel otherwise looking so dark in the near term, 400 00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:02,240 Speaker 1: but the light shining us greatly. I mean, it's h 401 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:06,040 Speaker 1: The prospects for getting back to something more like normal 402 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:09,600 Speaker 1: economic activity about the second half of the next year 403 00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:15,640 Speaker 1: certainly is I think was driving the real the real 404 00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:19,480 Speaker 1: excitement in the markets at this point. Pay a stick 405 00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:21,120 Speaker 1: with us. I just want to bring some headlines from 406 00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:22,760 Speaker 1: an interview that we did with a Bank of England 407 00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:26,440 Speaker 1: official in the last one hour or so dr Liga 408 00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:29,400 Speaker 1: saying the following that negative rates could help the UK 409 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:33,800 Speaker 1: complete the recovery, not a conversation that he's been shy 410 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,159 Speaker 1: about weighing into. He says any rate cut must be 411 00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:38,400 Speaker 1: more than ten basis points to work. Of course, bank 412 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:40,480 Speaker 1: rate at the Bank of England right now is about 413 00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:42,800 Speaker 1: ten basis points. And this was the move on guilt 414 00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:44,920 Speaker 1: yields at the front end. The whole curve is sinking. 415 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:47,760 Speaker 1: But your two year yield now is now negative ten 416 00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:51,040 Speaker 1: basis points in the UK, down five basis points on 417 00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:54,760 Speaker 1: the session. Tom, what's interesting about this right now? It's 418 00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:57,680 Speaker 1: not just that they are looking at possibly doing this. 419 00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:01,000 Speaker 1: It's this theory that negative and rates can one be 420 00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:04,440 Speaker 1: helpful and to picking a spot in the recovery where 421 00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:07,000 Speaker 1: they think it can be more helpful. It's something I've 422 00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:09,200 Speaker 1: heard from the bank having than a couple of times now, 423 00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:13,399 Speaker 1: that maybe that negative rates help you coming out of 424 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:17,040 Speaker 1: the downturn to complete the recovery, as opposed to using 425 00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:19,760 Speaker 1: the upfront all at once at the very start. It's 426 00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,040 Speaker 1: just like sports, John, It's just like when the toddslews 427 00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,399 Speaker 1: to Liverpool. You make your luck and have Peter Hooper 428 00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:26,840 Speaker 1: of Deutsche Bank with US. As you bring this up, 429 00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:31,160 Speaker 1: John is really really important. Doctor Hooper and David focus 430 00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:35,600 Speaker 1: land Out have been way way out front. I'm thinking 431 00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:38,480 Speaker 1: about what John mentions, which is the timing of negative 432 00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:43,119 Speaker 1: rate policy, and also this strange economic word, the magnitude 433 00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:47,320 Speaker 1: of economic policy. There's an assumption, doctor Hooper, that negative 434 00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:51,840 Speaker 1: rates really don't clear systems and improve economies unless you 435 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:55,400 Speaker 1: get enough umph that you get enough magnitude of negative 436 00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:59,200 Speaker 1: interest rates. Have we been too shy and too reticent 437 00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,399 Speaker 1: about using that tool where we're doing an itty bitty 438 00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:06,240 Speaker 1: here and there. Well, Tom, I think I think we're 439 00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,560 Speaker 1: at the point with monetary policy where we're beginning to 440 00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:13,560 Speaker 1: push on a string here. I mean, yes, in principle, 441 00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:18,000 Speaker 1: getting lates ever lower does does UH does have some 442 00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:21,760 Speaker 1: stimulative impact, but it also has some significant costs UH 443 00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:24,960 Speaker 1: and UH maybe less so in the UK, but in 444 00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:27,720 Speaker 1: the US the Fed is not looking at that. They're 445 00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:30,240 Speaker 1: not going to go anywhere near this. They're really concerned 446 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:34,720 Speaker 1: about what the impact would be on on the money markets, 447 00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:38,080 Speaker 1: on the financial sector more broadly, so, I think that 448 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:42,480 Speaker 1: you know, households looking at negative return potentially on on 449 00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:46,200 Speaker 1: deposits as banks begin eventually to pass them through a 450 00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:50,040 Speaker 1: number of a number of countries have really decided this 451 00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:53,439 Speaker 1: is not the way to go, and some have reversed course. Well, 452 00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:55,600 Speaker 1: I'm not sure this housing market in the UK right 453 00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,159 Speaker 1: now needs more juice. I don't think the United States 454 00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:01,080 Speaker 1: does either. Pet to thank you, appreciate your time. Payta 455 00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:04,199 Speaker 1: Hey at Deutsche Bank. Thank you very much. Thanks for 456 00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:08,679 Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to 457 00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:14,600 Speaker 1: interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. 458 00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,480 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene before the podcast. You 459 00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:21,919 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.