1 00:00:01,960 --> 00:00:04,280 Speaker 1: Welcome back to a numbers game with Brian Gerduski. Thank 2 00:00:04,320 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: you all for being here. I am excited that late 3 00:00:07,080 --> 00:00:09,680 Speaker 1: last week I was on Fox News. I got to 4 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:11,560 Speaker 1: go on for my first time in a few years 5 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 1: to talk about Congressman Maria Salazar's Dignity Act, which was introduced. 6 00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:21,600 Speaker 1: She introduced it with ten Democratic colleagues and nine other Republicans, 7 00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 1: and it is the soft launch of an amnesty for 8 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:27,320 Speaker 1: illegal aliens. She has said it's the beginning to get 9 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 1: citizenship for more than ten million illegal aliens. So the 10 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:34,720 Speaker 1: bill received co sponsorship of ten Republicans. Half of witch, 11 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 1: including Salas, are in safe seats that Trump won by 12 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 1: large margins. If you are displeased with the idea of 13 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 1: rewarding illegal immigrants and your congressman is representative is Mike 14 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:48,559 Speaker 1: Lawler from New York, Maria Salazar from Florida, David Valdeo 15 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:53,519 Speaker 1: from California, Dan Neuhouse from Washington, Mike Kelly from Pennsylvania, 16 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:58,840 Speaker 1: Brian Fitzpatrick from Pennsylvania, Gabe Evans from Colorado, Marlon Stutsman 17 00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:03,760 Speaker 1: from Indiana, Don Bacon from Nebraska, or Young Kim from California. 18 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 1: You can call them at two two two two five 19 00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:10,680 Speaker 1: three one two one and tell them that you will 20 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:14,480 Speaker 1: not support them in their reelection because they are supporting 21 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:17,920 Speaker 1: amnesty for illegal immigrants. I think that people should speak 22 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 1: up from their base. All right, funny enough about Oh wait, 23 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: this is actually some good gossip before I get to 24 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:28,479 Speaker 1: my main topic. An elected official from Marlon Stutsman, that's 25 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:32,600 Speaker 1: one of the congressmen supporting the Dignity Act Dignity Act 26 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 1: District email me. I never met this person before, and 27 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:40,399 Speaker 1: the elected said, I need to show you some text 28 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 1: messages that Marlin has been sending people. This is this 29 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:47,160 Speaker 1: Indiana Republican who ran on a very maga campaign and 30 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 1: last year when he won his old house seedback, he 31 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 1: had been there many years prior and then came back 32 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 1: and he ran this big I love Trump Trump Trump campaign. Well, 33 00:01:57,480 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 1: he was texting other people who pushing back on the 34 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 1: Dignity Act saying that this is the Christian thing to do, 35 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:09,239 Speaker 1: that they he doesn't support mass deportation despite campaigning to 36 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 1: voters on that, and that he it wouldn't give illegal 37 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 1: immigrants amnesty, which Salazar says it is the beginning of it. 38 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 1: And in the bill, by the way, it says it's 39 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 1: the beginning of it, and that the nineteen eighty six 40 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 1: Reagan amnesty didn't give citizenship, which is a bald face lie, 41 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 1: a complete bald face lie. He is openly lying to 42 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 1: people like he lied when he campaigned on a Trump 43 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:40,119 Speaker 1: agenda in twenty twenty four. I hope so much that 44 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 1: people attend his town halls or wherever they possibly can 45 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 1: and voice support for a primary candidate, because if there's 46 00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:51,000 Speaker 1: anyone who deserves to be run out of town, it 47 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:54,040 Speaker 1: is people who openly sit there and say what I 48 00:02:54,120 --> 00:02:58,960 Speaker 1: campaign on is not true. Those are the worst kinds 49 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:02,040 Speaker 1: of politicians. Anyway. It was great going on the ingrim Mangle. 50 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 1: Very excited to be back on the network. It's been 51 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 1: a while since I've been on cable news since a 52 00:03:07,040 --> 00:03:10,240 Speaker 1: certain joke. I'm a banned from a network. Now, let's 53 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:13,360 Speaker 1: talk to the main subject of today's podcast, which is 54 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 1: we are in the middle of summer, but it is 55 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:19,519 Speaker 1: a cold war brewing in this country, an electoral cold war. 56 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:23,360 Speaker 1: The twenty twenty six midterm elections are already hot underway, 57 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:25,240 Speaker 1: but it's not being done at the ballot box, at 58 00:03:25,320 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 1: least not yet. It's being done in state legislatures, as 59 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:32,200 Speaker 1: multiple states are already threatening to redistrict their congressional districts 60 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 1: to give their respective party an upper hand in the 61 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 1: midterm elections. It all started when Texas Governor Greg Abbott 62 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 1: announced a mid decade redistricting to give Republicans the chance 63 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 1: every drawing five to seven seats in favor of their 64 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 1: party in the lone Star state. According to the Texas Tribune, 65 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 1: Abbott didn't want to do it at first, but received 66 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 1: a call from President Trump, and the legislature is putting 67 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:58,440 Speaker 1: it on their Special Sessions agenda. This came at the 68 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 1: reluctancy of many how Republicans in the state, who are 69 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 1: worried that they could draw what's called a dummy mander. Basically, 70 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 1: they spread themselves far too thin and end up putting 71 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 1: their own incumbency in danger. Now, Democrats in Texas are 72 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 1: already facing tough challenges. Two members been sent to Gonzales 73 00:04:15,400 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 1: and Henry Quaar represent districts that Trump won by sizeable 74 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:21,479 Speaker 1: margins in twenty twenty four and are quickly moving to 75 00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 1: the right. It spurred off conversations in a number of 76 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:29,240 Speaker 1: other Republican states, like Ohio, for example, but if they 77 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 1: could do redistricting to give Republicans more favorable seats in 78 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 1: their state. Democrats, like California Governor Gavin Newsom immediately struck 79 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 1: back by announcing he'd be willing to redistrict California to 80 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:43,240 Speaker 1: take out six House Republicans in that state. Other Democratic 81 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 1: governors in New York, New Jersey, Minnesota, Maryland, and Washington 82 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:49,839 Speaker 1: say they are prepared to do the same. Essentially, it's 83 00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:52,719 Speaker 1: like the old Cold War, a race to see who 84 00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 1: will blow up each other first, and then they're all 85 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 1: going to blow up each other. Now, this is honestly 86 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 1: a lot more talk by some peopleeople who are trying 87 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:02,920 Speaker 1: to eye a run for the White House in twenty 88 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:05,360 Speaker 1: twenty eight and look like they're trying to take on Trump, 89 00:05:05,480 --> 00:05:09,560 Speaker 1: especially on the Democratic side. For example, Governor Gavima Newsom 90 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,600 Speaker 1: and the Democratic legislature don't have the power to just 91 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 1: redraw maps to become more partisan, like Greig Gabba does 92 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 1: In Texas. Voters in that state passing law on two 93 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:21,920 Speaker 1: thousand and eight stripping them of that power and giving 94 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:24,600 Speaker 1: it to an independent commission made up of five Republicans, 95 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 1: five Democrats, and four unaffiliated citizens, and they still usually 96 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:32,480 Speaker 1: come up with a pretty partisanly democratic map to begin with, 97 00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:37,719 Speaker 1: but it's not overtly partisan. It's not overtly districts drawn 98 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:41,040 Speaker 1: up to favor Democrats. For Newsom to be able to redistrict, 99 00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:43,760 Speaker 1: he'd have to get a constitutional amendment pass by voters 100 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 1: to reinstate the legislature's power. That would be a long 101 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:50,599 Speaker 1: and costly process that likely wouldn't happen in time for 102 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 1: twenty twenty six. Now there's no telling even if that 103 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:57,039 Speaker 1: amendment would pass. New York Democrats tried to overturn their 104 00:05:57,080 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 1: commission with a constitutional amendment, and it failed spectacle, voters 105 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:05,480 Speaker 1: rejected by double digits. Even Democrats in the California Legislature 106 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:07,839 Speaker 1: are saying that they will not support Newsom's push for 107 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:11,640 Speaker 1: redistricting and gerrymandering. But Newsom wants to run for president, 108 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:14,480 Speaker 1: and he has to look like he's willing to fight Trump, 109 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 1: which is the thing that Democrats want the most from 110 00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:21,000 Speaker 1: their elected officials Right now. The other state Democrats are 111 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 1: mentioning New Jersey, New York, and Washington all also have 112 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:28,920 Speaker 1: independent redistricting. Kathy Hochel has tried a number of times 113 00:06:29,040 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 1: to redistrict New York into a state where there's only 114 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 1: two or three Republicans, and the Democratic appointed Supreme Court 115 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 1: and Court appeals have struck her down every time. For 116 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:41,800 Speaker 1: any of these states to do exactly what they want, 117 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:44,039 Speaker 1: they'd have to get voters to change the constitution. That's 118 00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:48,200 Speaker 1: not easy. Minnesota the other state that being mentioned by Democrats. 119 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:51,200 Speaker 1: The Democrats they don't even control the state House, making 120 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:54,279 Speaker 1: the point moot. Even if Newsom were to change the 121 00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:58,040 Speaker 1: redistricting laws, he faces a problem that Republican Congression districts 122 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:00,760 Speaker 1: in his state are growing by an average up ten 123 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:04,560 Speaker 1: six hundred voters from twenty twenty to twenty twenty three, 124 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 1: according to the San Francisco Enquirer, while Democrats in the 125 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 1: deepest blue areas, their districts are shrinking, and the blue 126 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 1: are the district the more the people are leaving. Districts 127 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:17,360 Speaker 1: that voted for Harris by more than twenty points lost 128 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:20,960 Speaker 1: about twenty six point six thousand people over the same 129 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:24,800 Speaker 1: three year period. Among the states that Democrats have full 130 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:28,680 Speaker 1: control over the redistrict process, there are forty nine House seats. 131 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 1: They are in Oregon, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and 132 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 1: New Mexico. Democrats have basically redistricted every Republican out of 133 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:39,640 Speaker 1: those states to begin with. Out of those forty five seats, 134 00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 1: Republicans hold just five House seats, and the only place 135 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:44,800 Speaker 1: I could see them even being able to wipe out 136 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 1: another seat is in Maryland. There's one seat, and the 137 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:51,520 Speaker 1: Maryland Supreme Court is controlled by Republicans because or it's 138 00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:54,480 Speaker 1: all Republican appointed because of Larry Hogan. Republicans, on the 139 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:57,400 Speaker 1: other hand, have full redistricting and control in nineteen states 140 00:07:57,440 --> 00:08:00,880 Speaker 1: and one hundred and ninety three House seats. Republicans can 141 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 1: easily take out a dozen Democrats without blinking an eye 142 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:06,440 Speaker 1: in most of them. I mean, there's a real easy 143 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 1: path to patting the Republican majority in all those states. 144 00:08:10,920 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 1: But I need to caution there's really some concern. Trump 145 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 1: had a stellar performance in twenty twenty four an he 146 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:19,280 Speaker 1: won in Texas, the state that they're eyeing this mass redistricting, 147 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 1: by thirteen point five points, up from five point five 148 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 1: points in twenty twenty. The worry if Democrats have electoral 149 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 1: surge and perform well in the state, as they did 150 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:33,600 Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen, when Senator Ted Cruz won reelection by 151 00:08:33,679 --> 00:08:36,840 Speaker 1: just two point six percent means many of those seats 152 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:41,480 Speaker 1: would be endangered, and you'd have incumbents having very tough 153 00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:44,360 Speaker 1: chances at holding and winning a reelection. The worry if 154 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:47,600 Speaker 1: Democrats have this electoral surge and perform well in the state, 155 00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 1: as they did in twenty eighteen when Senator Ted Cruse 156 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:52,760 Speaker 1: won reelection by just two point six points, then they 157 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 1: may endanger a number of safe seats and safe incumbent 158 00:08:56,240 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 1: seats in the midterms. It's a very very risky tape 159 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:04,200 Speaker 1: tests they're taking one with no certainty of success. Ultimately, 160 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:07,520 Speaker 1: it diminishes part of the core belief behind our democratic 161 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 1: process too, that voters choose their politicians. Running around trying 162 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 1: to redistrict ourselves into oblivion creates the process where politicians 163 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:18,840 Speaker 1: choose their voters. Drawing congressional districts should be a process 164 00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 1: where the overall number of congressional seats reflect the partisan 165 00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 1: breakdown of the state and how they vote in the 166 00:09:24,640 --> 00:09:29,120 Speaker 1: presidential election, while keeping communities of common interest together. So 167 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 1: hypothetically New England should have four or five Trump seats 168 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:36,520 Speaker 1: in it, and they just have one right now. Texas, 169 00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:38,839 Speaker 1: North Carolina, and Florida they should have about ten more 170 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:42,480 Speaker 1: Democratic districts in them. New York, California, and Illinois should 171 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:45,319 Speaker 1: about sixteen more Republican seats in them. This kind of 172 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 1: process would also create a Congress that's more balance. Single 173 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 1: states wouldn't hold all the sway in their party's caucus, 174 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:53,160 Speaker 1: and it would give more of a balance and equal 175 00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:56,440 Speaker 1: representation to the people living in those states. I know 176 00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:58,640 Speaker 1: where I was raised in Queens, New York. I live 177 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 1: in a very, very Republican are Yet we never had 178 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 1: an elected Republican assemimen, nor did we even have a 179 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:07,839 Speaker 1: competitive race for a Republican assemblymen because the district was 180 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:12,000 Speaker 1: broken up four different directions. Once again, both parties do this. 181 00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:14,839 Speaker 1: It's not about you know who does and who's to blame, 182 00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 1: and it's not fair and it's not right, and seeing 183 00:10:17,679 --> 00:10:21,559 Speaker 1: how independent commissions protecting combents and lean in partisan directions, 184 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:24,840 Speaker 1: there's really no easy answer to fix it. But I 185 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:27,880 Speaker 1: can do the part to at least explain it. My 186 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:31,280 Speaker 1: next guest coming up is the leading reporter covering this 187 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 1: redistricting fight. He'll be on next. Jake Sherman is the 188 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:40,040 Speaker 1: co founder of punch Bowl News, a website I read 189 00:10:40,080 --> 00:10:43,240 Speaker 1: every morning, and he's covering the redistricting fight better than 190 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:45,520 Speaker 1: almost any other journalist. Jake's thanks for being here. 191 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:46,560 Speaker 2: Thank you. 192 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:49,880 Speaker 1: Let's talk about Texas first, because that seems to be 193 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 1: where the whole fight began, what I'm calling a cold 194 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:55,920 Speaker 1: war between the states. Governor Greg Abbott is looking to 195 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:58,920 Speaker 1: redistrict between two to five seats, depending on which story 196 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:03,200 Speaker 1: you're reading. I favor Republicans. Some reporting and say that 197 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 1: Texas Republicans are actually worried about that he may be 198 00:11:07,080 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 1: overstepping and drawing them into competitive districts, including a long 199 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:13,079 Speaker 1: time incumbents in safe districts. 200 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:16,680 Speaker 3: Can you speak to that, Yeah, there should be concern 201 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:19,600 Speaker 3: if you're a Texas Republican. That's a concern I've heard 202 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:24,280 Speaker 3: a ton about here. Is so, yes, I think they 203 00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:26,240 Speaker 3: are going to when the dust settles, they're going to go. 204 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 3: They're going to try to get five the districts that 205 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 3: we've reported is UH and these are the most likely 206 00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 3: at this point, and with the caution that this could 207 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:36,959 Speaker 3: all change and is I don't. I don't think it's 208 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 3: likely to change, but let's just get the baseline here. 209 00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 3: I do think UH a district in Houston. So there's 210 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:47,319 Speaker 3: Lizzie Fletcher, who's in the west part of Houston, West 211 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:50,959 Speaker 3: View and some of the area around Rice University all 212 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 3: the way to River Oaks, which is the the kind 213 00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:55,840 Speaker 3: of tony area of Houston. 214 00:11:56,920 --> 00:12:00,320 Speaker 2: I assume they leave her without a district. That's one. 215 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:03,960 Speaker 3: And then you have Henry Quaar and Vissena Gonzales two 216 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:07,959 Speaker 3: districts in South Texas. That would make three. You have 217 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:12,960 Speaker 3: Julie Johnson in Dallas that's another one. And then uh, 218 00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:15,760 Speaker 3: there's a question about the about the last seat, whether 219 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 3: it's going to be in Austin or it's going to 220 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:22,600 Speaker 3: be Veronica Escobar in El Paso. My money is on Austin, 221 00:12:22,760 --> 00:12:26,320 Speaker 3: where you have Greg Kassar, which is a very very 222 00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 3: thin meaning geographically thin district that runs kind of the 223 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:36,520 Speaker 3: east side of Austin north south. And then you have 224 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:43,480 Speaker 3: Lloyd Doggett, who represents the bulk of the city of Austin. Now, 225 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:47,079 Speaker 3: the concern would be if you're a Texas Republican, let's 226 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:51,280 Speaker 3: just let's just play Devil's advocate here. Let's say Ken 227 00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:55,680 Speaker 3: Paxton wins the Senate primary. I'm not saying he will 228 00:12:55,760 --> 00:13:00,160 Speaker 3: or he won't, but it's certainly a possibility that will 229 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:05,120 Speaker 3: be a could be a billion dollar race. I'm not 230 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:07,920 Speaker 3: trying to be facetious. It could be just hundreds of 231 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 3: millions of dollars in that race. Democrats will try to 232 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:15,320 Speaker 3: knock Passton off, and Democratic turnout will presumably again we're 233 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 3: presuming a lot here, will probably be through the roof, 234 00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:21,320 Speaker 3: and then those districts that go from R plus twenty 235 00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:27,160 Speaker 3: to R plus ten become not winnable for Democrats but 236 00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:31,360 Speaker 3: more difficult for Republicans, especially in and around cities. 237 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:35,000 Speaker 1: Now, well, it also may supposes that the Hispanic shift 238 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:38,440 Speaker 1: maintains election cycles. To an election cycle Texas was R 239 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:41,880 Speaker 1: plus five point five and twenty twenty thirteen point five 240 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:45,600 Speaker 1: and twenty twenty four, you need to maintain that coalition 241 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:48,360 Speaker 1: to keep it into a double digit state. It wasn't 242 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 1: that long ago that Texas went two and a half 243 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:52,560 Speaker 1: points for a Ted Cruz, and it could easily go 244 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:54,520 Speaker 1: to and a half point if the state of Texas 245 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:58,440 Speaker 1: only two and a half points for Republicans. Again, how 246 00:13:58,480 --> 00:14:00,640 Speaker 1: many of those seats are actually competitive? 247 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 3: So yes, this is the big issue here. The big 248 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:08,959 Speaker 3: question is what numbers they're basing these off of. How 249 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:11,439 Speaker 3: are they are they basing this is off of twenty 250 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:13,520 Speaker 3: twenty four numbers. Are they basing it off twenty twenty 251 00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:15,560 Speaker 3: numbers the redrawing of the map, And I think that's 252 00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:20,440 Speaker 3: a big question. I completely agree with you, and I 253 00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:26,000 Speaker 3: think the interesting thing will be is Republicans are saying 254 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 3: privately that they're going to make every Republican district in 255 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:32,960 Speaker 3: the state an average of an R plus ten. So 256 00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:34,720 Speaker 3: we'll see how this all shakes out. I mean, I 257 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:37,200 Speaker 3: assume there's going to be a ton of lawsuits. I 258 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:38,640 Speaker 3: don't know how this is going to work. And I 259 00:14:38,680 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 3: think the interesting thing will be is Democrats will say 260 00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:47,560 Speaker 3: that they've broken up a bunch of majority minority districts, 261 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 3: but Republicans say that actually, they're not going to do that, 262 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:53,080 Speaker 3: but a lot of these districts will. There will be 263 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:57,080 Speaker 3: an equal, if not greater number of majority minority districts. 264 00:14:57,120 --> 00:15:00,440 Speaker 3: But that is again, as you note, very smartly, posing 265 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:04,840 Speaker 3: that the Latino vote goes for Republicans with the same 266 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:09,600 Speaker 3: strength it went for Republicans in twenty twenty four. So 267 00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:13,960 Speaker 3: it's just this is just I think people are not you, 268 00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 3: But I think the general, the general coverage of this 269 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:22,960 Speaker 3: is actually, in my estimation underestimating how big of a 270 00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 3: shift this will be in the national political landscape, especially 271 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:30,040 Speaker 3: in the House of Representatives, which again every two years 272 00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 3: up for reelection. It's just one of the most fascinating 273 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:35,680 Speaker 3: stories right now in congressional politics. 274 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:40,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, and the biggest irony right now is that VINCENTA. 275 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 1: Gonzales and Henry Klar are in Trump districts and they 276 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 1: could very well lose it without even redistricting, just by 277 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:52,840 Speaker 1: how much that district Those districts are shifted and continue 278 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 1: to shift, and have shifted over the course of the last 279 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:58,680 Speaker 1: sixty years, not just two. What does this speak to 280 00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:02,160 Speaker 1: how the White House House Republicans feel about the twenty 281 00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:07,040 Speaker 1: twenty sixth election, the fact that they are so desperate to, 282 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:11,280 Speaker 1: you know, make these changes rather than trying to win 283 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:15,080 Speaker 1: these twelve seats that Trump won in twenty twenty four 284 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:16,560 Speaker 1: the Democrats won in the House. 285 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:18,360 Speaker 2: You're absolutely right. 286 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 3: This is a hedge, right, this is a hedge against 287 00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:24,000 Speaker 3: losses elsewhere, and it absolutely does speak to that reality. 288 00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:26,880 Speaker 3: I know we're on Texas right now only, but if 289 00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:27,880 Speaker 3: you look at well. 290 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 1: My next question was what other states are doing it? 291 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 1: So go ahead, you can. 292 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:31,600 Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about let's talk. 293 00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:34,840 Speaker 3: Let's just shift to California quickly, which is what democrats 294 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:37,080 Speaker 3: and if you're open to that, Ryan, I don't want to. 295 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:38,520 Speaker 2: I don't want to take control of your show. 296 00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:38,960 Speaker 1: No, no, no. 297 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 3: But you bring up an interesting point, which is a 298 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 3: lot of these seats that Republicans that either party is 299 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:50,600 Speaker 3: withdraw is redrawing, is they are doing so to win 300 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 3: seats that they ultimately might win anyway. Right, And you 301 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 3: make that point with Quaar and Vicente in Texas, But 302 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:02,600 Speaker 3: in California, Democrats would look at a young Kim in 303 00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:05,240 Speaker 3: Orange County, a seat that they could win in a 304 00:17:05,280 --> 00:17:08,000 Speaker 3: good year. For Democrats, they are going to look at 305 00:17:09,280 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 3: and Calvert in Palm Springs, which is again a seat 306 00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:16,640 Speaker 3: that they could win in a good year. So they 307 00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:18,720 Speaker 3: are doing this again to win seats that they could 308 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:22,000 Speaker 3: otherwise win. And those are the two big Those are 309 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:23,960 Speaker 3: the two big states, right, the two big states that 310 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:27,400 Speaker 3: are redistricting Republicans in Texas, Democrats in California. But then 311 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:29,800 Speaker 3: Republicans are looking all over the map. They're looking at 312 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:33,080 Speaker 3: states like Missouri where they want to crack Kansas City, 313 00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:37,320 Speaker 3: a seat that Emmanuel Cleaver has represented for a very 314 00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:43,919 Speaker 3: long time, not a vra district. And then you get 315 00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:48,359 Speaker 3: into dicey territory. Can you redistrict in a state like Kentucky? 316 00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:51,320 Speaker 3: Can you redistrict in a state like New Hampshire If 317 00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:58,720 Speaker 3: you're Republicans where the governor last time around was against 318 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:02,680 Speaker 3: a redis against the map that was much stronger for Republicans. 319 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:07,440 Speaker 3: Could Kelly IoT be be uh more favorable to a 320 00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:11,000 Speaker 3: to a mid mid mid decade redistricting. The answer to 321 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:14,159 Speaker 3: that is, I don't know, but there are opportunities across 322 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:16,720 Speaker 3: the country. I mean, in my conversations with the Trump 323 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:23,760 Speaker 3: administration and and allied entities, let's say the uh they 324 00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 3: even hope for somewhere in for some more seats in Florida, Florida. 325 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:31,440 Speaker 1: Do that? I mean Florida has the opportunity to redistrict 326 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:32,680 Speaker 1: more seats at this point. 327 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:35,120 Speaker 3: They could, right, they could go after some of those 328 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:39,800 Speaker 3: South Florida seats. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Jared Moskowitz. They could, Yes, 329 00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:43,200 Speaker 3: they could, but you are really at the ear, you've 330 00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:45,920 Speaker 3: really squeezed this towel, as you're really trying to squeeze 331 00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:49,639 Speaker 3: this towel as much as you humanly can, and and 332 00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:52,440 Speaker 3: of course there are risks with that. But but listen, 333 00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 3: we're in an era of Ryan of just bare knuckle politics. 334 00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:59,600 Speaker 3: We are, and and that's and both parties are are 335 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:02,399 Speaker 3: seeming to get to get accustomed to that. 336 00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:05,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, politicians are much more prone to pick 337 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:07,840 Speaker 1: their voters and voters are to pick their politicians. 338 00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 2: That's right. 339 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:11,919 Speaker 1: Let me ask Let me ask about Gavin Newsom. So, 340 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 1: Gavin Newsom, you know, bucked up and decided that he 341 00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 1: was going to go against Trump and Abbott and say 342 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:22,359 Speaker 1: that he would redistrict his state if Abbot redistrict his 343 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:28,200 Speaker 1: That Newsom does not have the same powers that Abbot 344 00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:32,480 Speaker 1: has because there's an independent redistricting. How much is about 345 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:36,439 Speaker 1: practically what Newsom can do and what he's trying to 346 00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:38,679 Speaker 1: do in the eyes of the public ahead of a 347 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:40,399 Speaker 1: twenty twenty eight presidential race. 348 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 3: It's a very good question. So let's start with this. 349 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:52,160 Speaker 3: The constitutional amendment that does that put the Redistricting Commission 350 00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:58,520 Speaker 3: in place does not say that. It basically says the commission. 351 00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:01,960 Speaker 3: I'm not quoting it directly, but the commission in the 352 00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:06,200 Speaker 3: once in the in the in the in the desennial 353 00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:10,680 Speaker 3: redistricting must use the Commission it is silent on mid 354 00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:14,920 Speaker 3: decade redistricting, and how you would do that? Now, you 355 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:18,760 Speaker 3: would probably have to do a constitutional excuse me, amendment 356 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,760 Speaker 3: or ballot initiative to get buy in. So that's the 357 00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:27,720 Speaker 3: first hurdle. The second hurdle is how you fund this, 358 00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:30,320 Speaker 3: because if you were going to do a ballot initiative, 359 00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:33,959 Speaker 3: the congressional delegation would have to pony up. And the 360 00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:38,040 Speaker 3: congressional delegation, in my many, many many conversations with many 361 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:43,040 Speaker 3: of the Democrats in that delegation, say well, if you 362 00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:45,359 Speaker 3: want us to pony up, we're okay with that, but 363 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:48,600 Speaker 3: let us draw the map, right, let us have our 364 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:49,480 Speaker 3: say in the map. 365 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,520 Speaker 2: And so here's what I would say about this. 366 00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 3: I want to I want to get to your question 367 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:56,920 Speaker 3: on Gavin in a second, but I want to put 368 00:20:56,960 --> 00:21:00,520 Speaker 3: this point out there first. There are opportunit unities in 369 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 3: California for Democrats. There's no question about that. We could 370 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 3: talk about that. But if you are a Democrat in 371 00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:10,640 Speaker 3: California and you have been raising two hundred thousand dollars 372 00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:13,840 Speaker 3: a quarter to win by you know, twenty points, are 373 00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:15,840 Speaker 3: you really going to want to raise four or five, six, 374 00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:18,960 Speaker 3: seven hundred thousand dollars a quarter in a more competitive seat. 375 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:23,240 Speaker 3: And the answer to that is, these guys say yes. 376 00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 3: These Democrats say yes. So now let's talk about Gavin. 377 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:30,320 Speaker 3: This is what Democrats want right now, right. They want 378 00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:32,840 Speaker 3: somebody who's going to take it to the Republicans and 379 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:37,600 Speaker 3: go bare knuckle and pind people to the mat and 380 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:42,399 Speaker 3: all those violent, you know, violent imagery. Right. So it 381 00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:45,520 Speaker 3: plays for him well politically. He just as you note, 382 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:50,480 Speaker 3: has a much more difficult functional task than Greg abb 383 00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:54,480 Speaker 3: it does in Texas, and there's no getting around that. 384 00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:58,000 Speaker 3: I think that Newsom does it. I think he spends 385 00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:00,359 Speaker 3: his political capital and tries to get it through. Now, 386 00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,080 Speaker 3: he has a lot of other stuff going on. California 387 00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:04,960 Speaker 3: is a big and complicated state to. 388 00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:10,919 Speaker 2: Govern. He also has been asking for wild for money 389 00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,879 Speaker 2: for the wildfires from Congress. I mean, does this interfere 390 00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:16,400 Speaker 2: with that? I don't know the answer to that. Probably 391 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:17,080 Speaker 2: in some way. 392 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:21,960 Speaker 3: If they do a disaster package for Texas, do they 393 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:23,360 Speaker 3: have to do one for California? 394 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:24,520 Speaker 2: Does it become more difficult? 395 00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:28,640 Speaker 3: All of these are legitimate questions to ask, but they 396 00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:31,560 Speaker 3: do feel like they have opportunity with Young Kim, with 397 00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:37,160 Speaker 3: Ken Calvert, with David Valadeo with darryl Issa in San Diego, 398 00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:40,440 Speaker 3: a seat that is surrounded by two other Democrats Scott Peters, 399 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,840 Speaker 3: actually three, Mike Levin and Sarah Jacobs all are comfortable 400 00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:47,919 Speaker 3: Democratic districts. But again, you're talking about seats Ryan that 401 00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:50,880 Speaker 3: Democrats should be able to win even if they don't 402 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:54,800 Speaker 3: readistrict in at least Calvert, Young Kim and David Valadeo. 403 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 3: So is the juice worth to squeeze on a practical 404 00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:01,680 Speaker 3: On a practical standpoint, I don't know the answer to that. 405 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:03,760 Speaker 3: You could make the argument either way. Is it worth 406 00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:08,680 Speaker 3: the squeeze in a political standpoint? I you know, probably 407 00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:10,840 Speaker 3: for Newsome if he sees a future in national. 408 00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:14,480 Speaker 1: Politics, right, And I mean Democrats want a fighter or where 409 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:17,639 Speaker 1: they perceied to be a fighter. And Newsomb has definitely 410 00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:19,879 Speaker 1: one of the biggest soapboxes in the country as far 411 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,840 Speaker 1: as Democrats go, in a very tough field where congressional 412 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:26,600 Speaker 1: Democrats are trying to look very strong. The interesting thing 413 00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:30,639 Speaker 1: about this in hindsight is we can go back in 414 00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:32,320 Speaker 1: a couple of years and look back and say, Wow, 415 00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,240 Speaker 1: this was either genius or this was very very stupid. 416 00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:39,160 Speaker 1: There was this huge shift among his banks nationwide, especially 417 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,840 Speaker 1: in Texas and California, and a bunch of districts like 418 00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:45,160 Speaker 1: David Aldeo. He's been there I think for quite some time. 419 00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:47,879 Speaker 1: I think twenty fourteen or twenty sixteen, he used to 420 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:50,760 Speaker 1: be in a Democrat district. He was the Republican who 421 00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:53,679 Speaker 1: win a Democratic district. Now his district Trump won, I 422 00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:57,040 Speaker 1: think by seven points, because that whole Central Valley area 423 00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:59,800 Speaker 1: is becoming more and more Republican. If they stretch these 424 00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:03,439 Speaker 1: lines too thin, even in the case of and and 425 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:06,640 Speaker 1: Hispanics move back to where they were pre twenty twenty 426 00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,840 Speaker 1: four then Texas Republicans have egg on their face. If 427 00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:12,760 Speaker 1: they continue to move forward, If that working class momentum 428 00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:16,080 Speaker 1: continues to happen, then a lot of California Democrats sit 429 00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 1: there and have to panic because all of a sudden 430 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:21,080 Speaker 1: they were in a competitive seat when they've never really 431 00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:23,320 Speaker 1: dealt with that outside of a primary. I want to 432 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:26,320 Speaker 1: talk with the other Democratic states. New York has talked 433 00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,320 Speaker 1: about this. New York now Counthy Oakle has tried many, 434 00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 1: many times at this point to try to get a redistricting. 435 00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:33,960 Speaker 1: The Democratic Court of Appeals has struck her down every time. 436 00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:36,800 Speaker 1: It's especially with the Staaten Island seat, which she can't 437 00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:39,119 Speaker 1: seem to just let Nicole Malletacas go. She has to 438 00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:40,680 Speaker 1: try to get rid of her any which way she can, 439 00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:45,080 Speaker 1: even though malle Talcus would have won the redistricted super 440 00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:49,359 Speaker 1: democratic area last time. There's Washington state they're talking about 441 00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:53,520 Speaker 1: also a commission state. They mentioned Minnesota, which Republicans control 442 00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:54,960 Speaker 1: the state House. I don't even know why they brought 443 00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,080 Speaker 1: that state up for and they talked about New Jersey, 444 00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 1: which is all also a commission state. Can all these 445 00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:02,520 Speaker 1: governors get past these commission independent commissions in order to 446 00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:04,320 Speaker 1: get some kind of redistricting. I mean, this is a 447 00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:06,320 Speaker 1: lot of work on democratic side. 448 00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:08,879 Speaker 3: So New Jersey I actually have notes in front of 449 00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:10,960 Speaker 3: me because we've been talking about this so much internally. 450 00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:16,560 Speaker 3: Ali Muttnick, who covers this for us, is just tremendous, 451 00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:20,240 Speaker 3: great reporter. The New Jersey Constitution says the establishment of 452 00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:22,720 Speaker 3: congressional districts shall be used thereafter for the election of 453 00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:25,639 Speaker 3: members of the House, and shall remain unaltered through the 454 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,240 Speaker 3: next year, ending in zero, in which a federal census 455 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:29,240 Speaker 3: for the state is taken. 456 00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:33,439 Speaker 2: Don't know how you get around that. Washington State very similar. 457 00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:35,680 Speaker 3: If a commission has ceased to exist, the legislature may, 458 00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:37,640 Speaker 3: upon affirmative vote in each of the House and each 459 00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:39,720 Speaker 3: House of two thirds and the members elected or appointed, 460 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:43,360 Speaker 3: adopt legislation reconvening the commission for the purpose of modifying 461 00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 3: the redistricting plan. Democrats don't have two thirds in the 462 00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:50,000 Speaker 3: House or the Senate. New York bans mid decade redistricting 463 00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:55,680 Speaker 3: in the New York State Constitution, Article three, Section four E. 464 00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:01,800 Speaker 3: I think there is a lot of wish casting here 465 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:03,480 Speaker 3: from Democrats. 466 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:04,480 Speaker 2: And again. 467 00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:09,879 Speaker 3: I'm not saying like again every both parties need to 468 00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:12,560 Speaker 3: do what they need to do to get their voters 469 00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:17,680 Speaker 3: riled up. But I understand the I understand the politics here, 470 00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:21,120 Speaker 3: but there are just some major hurdles to get around 471 00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:25,720 Speaker 3: in some of these states, including New York, Democrats just 472 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:29,280 Speaker 3: don't have a lot of opportunity as much opportunity as 473 00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:34,920 Speaker 3: Republicans do. I don't see outside of California. 474 00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:36,880 Speaker 1: A lot of these states, Looking at Missouri, Indiana, New Hampshire, 475 00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:40,960 Speaker 1: you mentioned before, Kentucky. Why didn't Republicans in twenty twenty 476 00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:44,280 Speaker 1: two try to crack these sole Democratic seats? Like why 477 00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:46,600 Speaker 1: are we why are that at a position right now 478 00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:47,680 Speaker 1: where they're freaking out. 479 00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:50,680 Speaker 3: Well, I mean the governors and a lot of they 480 00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:54,800 Speaker 3: were complicated by internal state politics in New Hampshire specifically 481 00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:58,480 Speaker 3: Indiana also, and by the way, I don't think that 482 00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:01,159 Speaker 3: Republicans can do Indiana right now. I've been told that 483 00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:04,560 Speaker 3: they are, that the state party is against that in Indiana. 484 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:06,359 Speaker 3: I'm not sure if that stretches all the way up 485 00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:10,320 Speaker 3: to Mike Braun, but I but that's been hinted to me. Again, 486 00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,960 Speaker 3: I don't know that I probably shouldn't even say that, 487 00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:17,080 Speaker 3: but that's what's been told to me, that Indiana is 488 00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:23,119 Speaker 3: not a live option. So and also, remember, like some 489 00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:25,920 Speaker 3: a lot of this is relationship based, right, A lot 490 00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 3: of this is that they a lot of these states 491 00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:34,320 Speaker 3: benefit from having a you know, a democrat, a democratic seat. 492 00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:37,840 Speaker 3: A lot of Republican state from democratic states benefit from 493 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:40,360 Speaker 3: having a Republican seat. Like this is not it's not 494 00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:45,080 Speaker 3: just like a pure power grab A lot of the times. Again, 495 00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:49,240 Speaker 3: you're right, there are opportunities in Indiana, there are opportunities 496 00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:53,160 Speaker 3: in New Hampshire. But you know, listen, it's not it's 497 00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:56,720 Speaker 3: not as cut and dry as I mean, Governor Sannu. 498 00:27:56,880 --> 00:28:00,359 Speaker 3: Remember he vetoed a map. He vetoed a map that 499 00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:04,960 Speaker 3: was that was stronger. So a lot of internal state politics. 500 00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:08,440 Speaker 1: There, gotcha. Last question, which states? Which state do you 501 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,960 Speaker 1: would you bet if you were betting on the most 502 00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:13,080 Speaker 1: likely to redistrict before the next election. 503 00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:15,800 Speaker 2: Well, Texas for sure. 504 00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:18,280 Speaker 1: Really you think it's going to go through. 505 00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:20,240 Speaker 2: Don't you think so? You don't think so. 506 00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:22,560 Speaker 1: I heard there's a lot of pushback from Texas Republicans 507 00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:25,840 Speaker 1: even in the state legislature, who are very nervous about this. 508 00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:29,320 Speaker 1: And some of these maps I've seen thrown around are 509 00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:32,640 Speaker 1: are just ridiculous. I mean that not that that will 510 00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:36,000 Speaker 1: stop them, but they are truly ridiculous. I mean, I 511 00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:38,200 Speaker 1: know there's a lot of pressure in the White House. 512 00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 1: I could the two seats in the South Texas very 513 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:44,600 Speaker 1: easy redistrict. It's easy to get to two like you 514 00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:46,760 Speaker 1: could do. I could do it. Give me a crayon, 515 00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:50,080 Speaker 1: I could do two extra Republican seats in South Texas. Five. 516 00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:53,880 Speaker 1: You have to get really creative, and you're bringing a 517 00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:57,360 Speaker 1: lot of Texas incumbents do not like to be even 518 00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:00,280 Speaker 1: in remotely competitive places. They like to be in super 519 00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:03,800 Speaker 1: safe seats and they got them in twenty twenty two, 520 00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:06,080 Speaker 1: and I don't know if they're really really willing to 521 00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:09,160 Speaker 1: deal with that in twenty twenty six in a Democratic 522 00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:12,280 Speaker 1: year and a couple of them having to actually really 523 00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:13,920 Speaker 1: campaign and fundraise hard. I don't know. 524 00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:16,719 Speaker 3: Let me let me make a couple quick points here, 525 00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:22,160 Speaker 3: if you don't mind. I think Houston is relatively easy 526 00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:27,160 Speaker 3: the way it's been put to me. Remember Lizzie Fletcher 527 00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:30,080 Speaker 3: in it was given that district, she ran in a 528 00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:33,520 Speaker 3: more competitive seat against Wesley Hunt. When and she beat 529 00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,400 Speaker 3: Wesley Hunt. Then they made a seat for Wesley Hunt, 530 00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:40,360 Speaker 3: and they gave Lizzie Fletcher a very blue seat. But 531 00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:43,960 Speaker 3: she's surrounded by a lot of strong Republican seats in 532 00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:47,120 Speaker 3: that west part of Houston, stretching into the suburbs and 533 00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:49,560 Speaker 3: the exerbs. So if you could just sink some of 534 00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:52,880 Speaker 3: those Democratic votes into those strong Republican seats, then you're 535 00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:56,560 Speaker 3: in good shape if you're a Republican, and puts. 536 00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:57,680 Speaker 2: Lizzie Fletcher in a bind. 537 00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:00,200 Speaker 1: And and. 538 00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:05,280 Speaker 3: So that's another one. And Dallas appears to be just 539 00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:07,560 Speaker 3: a little bit harder. And then if you get to Austin, 540 00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:12,960 Speaker 3: my guess, just based on his fundraising is that McCall 541 00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:15,400 Speaker 3: is not going to run again. I think he raised 542 00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:18,840 Speaker 3: like ninety thousand dollars or something like that. He was 543 00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:22,120 Speaker 3: denied the Homeland Security chair. He tried to run for it. 544 00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,120 Speaker 3: It was a big mess in the Capitol. We're going to, 545 00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:26,800 Speaker 3: by the way, talk about all this on our new 546 00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:29,239 Speaker 3: punch Bowl News show Flyout Day, which you should all 547 00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:29,959 Speaker 3: subscribe to. 548 00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:33,480 Speaker 2: All about Congress all the time. Subscribe to punch Bowl 549 00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:35,000 Speaker 2: News YouTube. 550 00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:42,240 Speaker 3: So I think that Austin is not easy, but it's 551 00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:46,760 Speaker 3: not as hard Dallas is. Dallas could be difficult. And 552 00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:50,560 Speaker 3: Al Paso, I mean, I think l Passo was the hardest. 553 00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:53,240 Speaker 3: If I had to guess, they don't go after El Paso. 554 00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:59,160 Speaker 3: Veronica Escobar. You know, Tony Gonzalez's seat was drawn by 555 00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:02,640 Speaker 3: the court O. You get and and and Tony is 556 00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:08,040 Speaker 3: a very headstrong, smart and. 557 00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:11,080 Speaker 1: He's a very hated member by his own caucus, though 558 00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:12,840 Speaker 1: he has. 559 00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:14,120 Speaker 2: Some complicated relationships. 560 00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:15,880 Speaker 1: But he did call a few of them a racist, 561 00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:17,080 Speaker 1: like three years he did. 562 00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:19,480 Speaker 2: But I don't think they're going to want to mess 563 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:23,480 Speaker 2: with that district. And although that that Ryan, that seat 564 00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:27,280 Speaker 2: for for Escobar shifted nineteen points toward Trump. 565 00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:30,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, they all, they all these Hispanic districts. Did I 566 00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:35,120 Speaker 1: think there's a possibility for them there? What I I 567 00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:39,520 Speaker 1: the political consultant me looks at the opportunity for short 568 00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:41,800 Speaker 1: term games versus long term games. I think the Hispanic 569 00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:43,920 Speaker 1: boat is going to continue to move just because minority 570 00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:47,200 Speaker 1: voats are moving throughout the higher Western world, however, and 571 00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:50,640 Speaker 1: suburban college educated areas like the Austin area is going 572 00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:55,120 Speaker 1: to grow even furthertle left. It's very very narrowing. I 573 00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:57,560 Speaker 1: don't know, but the it's a midterm. 574 00:31:57,680 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 2: It's a mid term. 575 00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,720 Speaker 3: I mean, as much as c L says they want 576 00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:04,479 Speaker 3: to go out and change the mid term electorate, like 577 00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:07,400 Speaker 3: I want to be, you know, a six foot four 578 00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:10,840 Speaker 3: point guard for the Knicks, you know, like I want 579 00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:11,959 Speaker 3: to be a scratch golfer. 580 00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:13,800 Speaker 2: None of those things are going to happen, you know 581 00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:14,160 Speaker 2: what I mean? 582 00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:20,560 Speaker 1: Like what you mentioned the wildfires before the bandon, like 583 00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:23,120 Speaker 1: the political consulting part of it, it would be a 584 00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:26,160 Speaker 1: lot easier for California to get those wildfire money if 585 00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:28,720 Speaker 1: there were eight more Republicans in California, and if there 586 00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:31,560 Speaker 1: were five, if there was a lot more Southern Democrats 587 00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:36,239 Speaker 1: and Northeast Republicans and California Republicans. You would have a 588 00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:39,760 Speaker 1: lot healthier balance in our Congress because there'd be regional representation. 589 00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,560 Speaker 2: Dude, I say this to people all the time. 590 00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:45,920 Speaker 3: People ask me about what I think is broken about Congress, 591 00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:49,640 Speaker 3: and I try to have zero opinions about most things 592 00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:55,200 Speaker 3: because I hate everyone equally. But redistricting is the root 593 00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:58,520 Speaker 3: of all evil. It just is, and I love covering it. 594 00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:01,440 Speaker 3: I love these stories. But as you said before, when 595 00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:05,120 Speaker 3: you pick your voters, you are not incentivized. Most people 596 00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:08,560 Speaker 3: go home and their principal political hurdle is a primary 597 00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:12,480 Speaker 3: challenge that does not lead to good governing. I don't 598 00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:14,440 Speaker 3: care what you say. I don't not use specifically, I 599 00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:16,520 Speaker 3: don't know what anyone says. But if you go home 600 00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:18,680 Speaker 3: and people are saying you can you should go further 601 00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:21,320 Speaker 3: to the right or further to the left. I just 602 00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:23,240 Speaker 3: think that's it's not great for democracy. 603 00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:25,720 Speaker 1: That's all well, Jake, Where can people go to read 604 00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:28,120 Speaker 1: more about your work and punch Bowl News. 605 00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:30,040 Speaker 2: Launchbowl Dot News. They should go to. 606 00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:32,480 Speaker 3: They should follow me on Twitter, Jake Sherman, pretty easy. 607 00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:37,760 Speaker 3: I got that name early, I suppose, and we are 608 00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:40,720 Speaker 3: launching the show which will be really exciting in September, 609 00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:44,880 Speaker 3: Flyout Day, a show about or all about Congress and 610 00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:50,960 Speaker 3: legislative politics, which we're very very excited for, and so 611 00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:53,720 Speaker 3: they should. Everyone should subscribe to Punchball News on YouTube 612 00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:56,520 Speaker 3: and on the Daily Punch on Spotify, all those things. 613 00:33:56,520 --> 00:33:58,240 Speaker 1: We have a lot of a lot of things on 614 00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:00,640 Speaker 1: email box every day and I I love it. I 615 00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:02,719 Speaker 1: think you guys do right work. So thanks you for 616 00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:04,320 Speaker 1: being on this podcast. I appreciate you. 617 00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:05,120 Speaker 2: Thanks man. 618 00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:10,640 Speaker 1: Hey, We'll be right back after this, and now it's 619 00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:13,280 Speaker 1: time for the Ask Me Anything segment. My first question 620 00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:18,200 Speaker 1: comes from Robin Eskenberg. She writes many legitimate reasons have 621 00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:22,800 Speaker 1: been given for Democrats opening border policies, including increased legislative 622 00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:27,400 Speaker 1: represent representation, desire for cheap labor, and in general, more voters. 623 00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:30,200 Speaker 1: Has anyone talked with a trend of birth rates, specifically 624 00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:33,640 Speaker 1: conservative versus liberal birth rates. I know in general the 625 00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:36,879 Speaker 1: birth rates are declining, but it's declining quicker for Democrats. 626 00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:39,560 Speaker 1: I think she's asking that question. If so, could it 627 00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:41,640 Speaker 1: be explaining why they need more voters? That is a 628 00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:47,360 Speaker 1: great question, Robin. So there's no official breakdown of fertility 629 00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:50,040 Speaker 1: rates and birth rates by a political party, but they 630 00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:53,160 Speaker 1: have studied fertility rates by county. Our report from the 631 00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:56,400 Speaker 1: Family Studies found that the most Republican counties in twenty 632 00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:59,280 Speaker 1: twenty four had a fertility rate of one point seven 633 00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:03,279 Speaker 1: six children per woman. Areas that leaned Republican had one 634 00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:06,440 Speaker 1: point sixty seven. Swing counties had one point five to 635 00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:09,239 Speaker 1: nine children per woman, which was very similar to Democratic 636 00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:12,120 Speaker 1: lean counties that had one point five to six, and 637 00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:14,960 Speaker 1: the most Democratic counties in the country had a fertility 638 00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:17,879 Speaker 1: of just one point three seven children per woman. So yeah, 639 00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:20,440 Speaker 1: there is a big difference. One point seven six on 640 00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:22,759 Speaker 1: the far right and one point three seven on the 641 00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:25,080 Speaker 1: far left. This is a very, very big gap. That's 642 00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:30,600 Speaker 1: basically the difference between you know, France and not Italy, 643 00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:32,879 Speaker 1: but close to it when it comes to birth rates. Now, 644 00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:36,120 Speaker 1: there's not a single state with a fertility rate above 645 00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:38,319 Speaker 1: the two point one children per woman that you need 646 00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,320 Speaker 1: that a society needs to replace itself from one generation 647 00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:44,640 Speaker 1: to another. South Dakota which is two point zero three, 648 00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:48,319 Speaker 1: Nebraska has one point nine six. Idaho and Alaska at 649 00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:52,360 Speaker 1: one point eight six are the closest when you compare 650 00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:55,080 Speaker 1: it to twenty fifteen When you look at fertility trends 651 00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:57,840 Speaker 1: in the states over the course of the last decade, 652 00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:01,520 Speaker 1: they have declined, you know, you know, across the board 653 00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:04,319 Speaker 1: in every single state. The states that they've declined them most, 654 00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:08,600 Speaker 1: and ironically actually have been mostly red states. Utah had 655 00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:11,360 Speaker 1: the biggest decline of any state, but that's because Mormons 656 00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:15,520 Speaker 1: are continually leaving their church in droves. Overall, the fertility 657 00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:18,760 Speaker 1: rate went from one point eight four in twenty fifteen 658 00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:21,759 Speaker 1: to one point sixty two in twenty twenty five, and 659 00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:25,759 Speaker 1: the states that had a declining fertility rate above the 660 00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:36,759 Speaker 1: national average were Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, DC, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Michigan, Maine, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, 661 00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:44,160 Speaker 1: New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Washington, 662 00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:47,040 Speaker 1: and Wisconsin. I know there's a lot, but I don't 663 00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:48,880 Speaker 1: know flag the state that you live in. If you're there, 664 00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:52,239 Speaker 1: that's because of a mixture of things. It's because there's 665 00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:55,920 Speaker 1: a mixture of religious affiliation among Mormon communities. In the 666 00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:59,080 Speaker 1: states like Utah and Idaho. It's a massive decline among 667 00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:02,880 Speaker 1: the black popular in some areas. Decline of fertility in 668 00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:06,000 Speaker 1: the black populations, the decline of Hispanic birth rate has 669 00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:08,839 Speaker 1: definitely hit the Southwest and huge numbers. That was a 670 00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:11,160 Speaker 1: big part of the twenty fifteen to twenty twenty five 671 00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:15,160 Speaker 1: change that we saw. When it comes to fertility, the 672 00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:20,040 Speaker 1: change in fertility among Red states is the declining religiousity. 673 00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:23,800 Speaker 1: When you look at states that are in super low region, 674 00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:28,240 Speaker 1: super low fertility levels, levels that are far below replacement, 675 00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:31,920 Speaker 1: where the population has almost no way of leaving itself 676 00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:35,800 Speaker 1: of like one point four children per woman and below 677 00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:38,560 Speaker 1: all of them voted for Kamwal Harris. So yeah, there 678 00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:42,239 Speaker 1: is a correlation of needing voters because their voters are 679 00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:44,680 Speaker 1: not having children. It's obviously between the state data and 680 00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:47,840 Speaker 1: the county data from twenty twenty four. But I think 681 00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:51,480 Speaker 1: a big part of it also is internal net migration 682 00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:56,200 Speaker 1: of our own country. You have to supplement bad policies 683 00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:59,239 Speaker 1: and loss of voters who are just moving to either 684 00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:02,480 Speaker 1: red district or red states. And I think that is 685 00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:04,560 Speaker 1: the bigger thing. It's not so much fertility, although I 686 00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:07,560 Speaker 1: find it interesting and I gave you all that data, 687 00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:10,239 Speaker 1: I think that a bigger part of it is just 688 00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:13,839 Speaker 1: net migration more than even just fertility rates. I don't 689 00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:16,920 Speaker 1: think they don't think so far ahead to fertility rates. 690 00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:19,759 Speaker 1: All right, Second question and last for the podcast. This 691 00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:23,600 Speaker 1: comes from Chris from San Francisco. This email is rather long, 692 00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:25,759 Speaker 1: but it's when I summarize it, but it says, you know, 693 00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:28,800 Speaker 1: is the failure of California as a state on Arnold 694 00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:31,400 Speaker 1: Schwartzenegger and the fact that he was just a Democrat 695 00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:34,400 Speaker 1: in Republican clothing and he was the final blow to 696 00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:38,600 Speaker 1: turn California permanently blow and he asked for the data 697 00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:41,160 Speaker 1: on this. So the question is hard to summarize with data, 698 00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:43,200 Speaker 1: but I'm going to give it my best shot. People 699 00:38:43,280 --> 00:38:45,879 Speaker 1: forget that despite being a blue state from nineteen eighty 700 00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:50,080 Speaker 1: three to twenty eleven, Republicans control the governorship of California 701 00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:53,760 Speaker 1: for all but four years of that entire span of time. 702 00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:57,520 Speaker 1: While they control the governor's mansion, however, they never control 703 00:38:57,560 --> 00:39:01,759 Speaker 1: the state legislature. The state Senate was never Republican. The 704 00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:05,440 Speaker 1: State Assembly was Republican for two years during that entire 705 00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:08,520 Speaker 1: time period. Now it's not as bad as it is 706 00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:12,359 Speaker 1: now as far as the makeup goes, but Republican governors 707 00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:16,960 Speaker 1: could never really act in a conservative fashion, and Arnold 708 00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:21,279 Speaker 1: was the worst of that because he didn't really campaign 709 00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:25,319 Speaker 1: hard for Republicans in the state to win the state legislature. 710 00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:28,040 Speaker 1: Which is very interesting. It's a phenomenon. You see a 711 00:39:28,080 --> 00:39:32,440 Speaker 1: blue state governor, some blue state governors blue state Republican 712 00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:37,040 Speaker 1: governors when they are in charge. Either some use their 713 00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:41,640 Speaker 1: political capital when they're very popular to win legislative seats, 714 00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:45,879 Speaker 1: and others use it to increase their own profile out 715 00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:50,479 Speaker 1: of a possible presidential run. I'll give you four perfect examples. Arnold, 716 00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:53,360 Speaker 1: Schwarzenegger and Chris Christy did very little to nothing to 717 00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:56,240 Speaker 1: help Republicans in New Jersey and California when they were governor. 718 00:39:56,840 --> 00:40:00,600 Speaker 1: Phil Scott and Larry Hogan in Vermont and Maryland campaign 719 00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:05,200 Speaker 1: extremely hard for their Republicans and the state legislature, and 720 00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:08,480 Speaker 1: they grew their numbers. I think Maryland was the only 721 00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:11,960 Speaker 1: state in the country in twenty eighteen where Republicans increased 722 00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:16,480 Speaker 1: their representation in the legislature in no part to Larry 723 00:40:16,520 --> 00:40:19,560 Speaker 1: Hogard's efforts. And in Vermont, a state that Trump lost 724 00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:24,480 Speaker 1: big time in twenty twenty four, Phil Scott won reelection 725 00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:28,160 Speaker 1: and he almost took out the Democratic State Senate majority 726 00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:31,040 Speaker 1: for the first time in decades. So that's like the 727 00:40:31,120 --> 00:40:34,080 Speaker 1: difference of the actions. But back to Schwarzenger, he never 728 00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:36,799 Speaker 1: did that, and he made the campaign about him, and 729 00:40:36,840 --> 00:40:39,840 Speaker 1: by the end of his term, his popularity was somewhere 730 00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:43,040 Speaker 1: in the mid twenty percent, while two thirds of California 731 00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:46,040 Speaker 1: residents had a negative opinion about him. So I think 732 00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:50,879 Speaker 1: ultimately Schwarzeneger definitely did not help Republicans either below him 733 00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:54,000 Speaker 1: win more seats, and secondly did not win anyone who 734 00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:57,040 Speaker 1: was going to campaign as a Republican in his place 735 00:40:57,160 --> 00:41:00,440 Speaker 1: after he was retired, because he was so unpopus there. 736 00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:03,960 Speaker 1: But ultimately, what changed California was in the actions of 737 00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:08,240 Speaker 1: one particular person or particular party. It's just massive demographic changes. 738 00:41:08,560 --> 00:41:11,880 Speaker 1: As white voters fled the state and Hispanics and Asians 739 00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:16,319 Speaker 1: grew up became registered voters and voted more Democrat on 740 00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:22,360 Speaker 1: average than whites did, Democrats just got this huge spike 741 00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:26,319 Speaker 1: in surge in registration. I couldn't find voter registration data 742 00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:29,239 Speaker 1: that predates twenty eighteen, but I think this still is 743 00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:32,839 Speaker 1: a good example. In January twenty eighteen, Democrats had one 744 00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:37,319 Speaker 1: point five million more registered people than Republicans did in 745 00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:40,120 Speaker 1: the state. It was like six point seven million to 746 00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:44,239 Speaker 1: five point two million over sixteen years. Though Republicans gained 747 00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:47,799 Speaker 1: one hundred and sixty thousand new registered voters in California, 748 00:41:48,160 --> 00:41:52,239 Speaker 1: mostly coming post twenty twenty, Democrats gained three point five 749 00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:56,240 Speaker 1: million in that same time period. Demographics are what changed 750 00:41:56,280 --> 00:41:58,239 Speaker 1: that state. It really was in the actions of a 751 00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:01,640 Speaker 1: single governor, despite the fact that Schwartzenegger wasn't very good 752 00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:06,319 Speaker 1: by most people's accounts. Anyway, that's the show. If you 753 00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:08,800 Speaker 1: want to be part of the ask Me Anything segment 754 00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:12,800 Speaker 1: in the future, please email me ryanat numbers gamepodcast dot com. 755 00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:15,880 Speaker 1: That's ryanat numbers gamepodcast dot com. I read every one 756 00:42:15,880 --> 00:42:17,880 Speaker 1: of these emails. I try to get to every one 757 00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:20,360 Speaker 1: of them, either on the show or privately. So email 758 00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:22,719 Speaker 1: me if you like, and please like and subscribe this 759 00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:25,799 Speaker 1: podcast in the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast wherever you get 760 00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:28,239 Speaker 1: your podcasts. If you're feeling very generous and you like 761 00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:30,319 Speaker 1: this data, I give you give me a five star review. 762 00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:33,279 Speaker 1: It does make a big difference and I notice. Thank 763 00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:35,520 Speaker 1: you so much. See you guys next week.