Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea and when you wake up in the
Speaker 2: morning here at Team Surveillance, it's real simple. You never
Speaker 2: know what the news will bring. Sometimes it's a day
Speaker 2: of economics, finance, investment, international relations. I've said this in
Speaker 2: speeches before that, before August of two thousand and seven,
Speaker 2: you know, Eric helped me here, probably twenty days of
Speaker 2: the year we're boring, maybe fifteen days of the year
Speaker 2: we're boring. But since the financial crisis of that August
Speaker 2: in two thousand and seven, all of eight and nine,
Speaker 2: literally I've got fingers left over on one hand of
Speaker 2: the number of boring. They're never boring. And it's either
Speaker 2: on what we do at Surveillance or it can be
Speaker 2: on an event as we unwitness this morning. Amy Morrison
Speaker 2: Washington leading our coverage on a horrific failure of engineering
Speaker 2: a large, large container ship smashing into I guess under
Speaker 2: mechanical challenges, smashing into a huge Francis Scott Key Bridge
Speaker 2: in Baltimore, with loss of life, just the shock that
Speaker 2: damaged the devastation of the bridge. We scrambled, and our
Speaker 2: leadership was Michael Barr, of course, and Amy Morris with
Speaker 2: ninety nine one FM in Washington where their updates the
Speaker 2: news moving forward. But part of that is team surveillance
Speaker 2: going out and saying, Okay, who are people that understand
Speaker 2: the underlying of a tragic event like this. One of
Speaker 2: them is John kutsonis what's so interesting about John kutsonis
Speaker 2: is not only did he do equity research with City
Speaker 2: Group and others through the years, but also just a
Speaker 2: complete understanding of global shipping. He's a member of the
Speaker 2: board of Synergy out of Athens, Greece, and his Breakwave
Speaker 2: Advisors is somebody that talks about the mechanism the process
Speaker 2: of shipping. Here even on a day when we see
Speaker 2: a tragedy, here is John Consonas And the first thing to.
Speaker 1: Do from a shipping perspective, the first thing you have
Speaker 1: to do is obviously find what went wrong right. I mean,
Speaker 1: these are state of the r ships, especially this one
Speaker 1: involved in this accident is a brand new ship. It's
Speaker 1: less than ten years old building Korea. These are high
Speaker 1: quality ships, so it's a very unlikely phenomenon that you
Speaker 1: get something like that. The other thing is obviously you
Speaker 1: have to look at the human error. But again when
Speaker 1: the ships approach ports or tight waterways or areas that
Speaker 1: they don't know very well. You have a experienced personnel
Speaker 1: that gets on board from the port, basically pilots and
Speaker 1: the other ones who are going to steer the ship
Speaker 1: through the waterway. So there are a lot of elements here.
Speaker 1: One is obviously the human element. The other is the
Speaker 1: mechanical failure, which seems to be the case. Here is
Speaker 1: also obviously the timing here, because if you happen like
Speaker 1: or fifteen minutes later, nothing would have gone wrong.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg continuing coverage of this horrific disaster through the day. Really,
Speaker 2: I will have the Asian coverage here the trip bound
Speaker 2: for Sri Lanka that out of our center tendency of
Speaker 2: Hong Kong and Singapore, and then we'll come around to
Speaker 2: London and of course marisk of the Baltic Sea in Scandinavia,
Speaker 2: we'll have coverage there as well. Yes, I'm the business
Speaker 2: part of it. And then to Baltimore in the absolute shock.
Speaker 2: I thought Governor Wes Moore was particularly articulate about how
Speaker 2: Baltimore now must pick up the pieces, rebuild a bridge,
Speaker 2: mourn those that have died, and move on. And as
Speaker 2: John Katsano said, this will take easily into twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: Is well. We tried to have a normal coverage too short.
Speaker 2: A conversation with Adam Posen. He's with the Peterson Institute.
Speaker 2: He's been a huge support to Bloomberg surveillance over the years.
Speaker 2: Any number of topics to speak to doctor Posen about.
Speaker 2: I really want to go back to a Robert Armstrong
Speaker 2: essay or interview, I should say in the ft with
Speaker 2: Adam Posen, and I thought it was just just brilliant
Speaker 2: how Adam Posen talked about what he got wrong in
Speaker 2: his economics of the last three or four years. He
Speaker 2: underestimated the resiliency of the American citizen.
Speaker 3: People adapted, they set up new businesses, they moved to
Speaker 3: new jobs, they arranged care. That doesn't mean we should
Speaker 3: leave them to that. It's better that we didn't. But
Speaker 3: we as economists, and particularly people who are on the
Speaker 3: progressive side, where I sort of am, you know, we
Speaker 3: understandably worry a lot about people buffeted by large shocks
Speaker 3: that they have no fault in and they can't control.
Speaker 3: But what I think COVID showed us is people's ability
Speaker 3: to adapt to these shocks is much bigger than we
Speaker 3: worried about, and that leads into all kinds of positive
Speaker 3: though non intended labor market changes in the US that
Speaker 3: I think came out of this process.
Speaker 2: Adam Posen the Peterson Institute. Later on in that conversation,
Speaker 2: Paul Sweeney asked him about productivity, about the efficiency of
Speaker 2: the American economy, and he came out not reluctantly, but
Speaker 2: he said he was a hedged productivity bull. That there
Speaker 2: is something new going on in America that can lead,
Speaker 2: you know, away from the FED babble, can lead to
Speaker 2: a good economy, a developing real GDP, maybe a sprightly
Speaker 2: nominal GDP. And of course the arch matter here to
Speaker 2: the next FED meeting and the key jobs report end
Speaker 2: of March early April jobs report, is this continuing underestimation
Speaker 2: of what GDP is doing. There's some gloomy people out
Speaker 2: there as well, so you got to be careful on that. Really,
Speaker 2: thanks to all of our team today for a huge
Speaker 2: effort in trying to stay on the script that is
Speaker 2: Bloomberg surveillance, but also our coverage of a bridge down
Speaker 2: in Baltimore, run Apple car play worldwide and across the nation. Also,
Speaker 2: I should say on Google Play, Android Play, I should
Speaker 2: say at Google Play, but at Apple download the Bloomberg
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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcasts. Thank you for the growth here, Thank you
Speaker 2: for the comments of live chat. It just done at
Speaker 2: the World Reach. Good morning to Taiwan.