WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: John Kartsonas and Adam Posen

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Single best idea and when you wake up in the

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<v Speaker 2>morning here at Team Surveillance, it's real simple. You never

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<v Speaker 2>know what the news will bring. Sometimes it's a day

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<v Speaker 2>of economics, finance, investment, international relations. I've said this in

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<v Speaker 2>speeches before that, before August of two thousand and seven,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, Eric helped me here, probably twenty days of

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<v Speaker 2>the year we're boring, maybe fifteen days of the year

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<v Speaker 2>we're boring. But since the financial crisis of that August

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<v Speaker 2>in two thousand and seven, all of eight and nine,

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<v Speaker 2>literally I've got fingers left over on one hand of

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<v Speaker 2>the number of boring. They're never boring. And it's either

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<v Speaker 2>on what we do at Surveillance or it can be

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<v Speaker 2>on an event as we unwitness this morning. Amy Morrison

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<v Speaker 2>Washington leading our coverage on a horrific failure of engineering

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<v Speaker 2>a large, large container ship smashing into I guess under

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<v Speaker 2>mechanical challenges, smashing into a huge Francis Scott Key Bridge

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<v Speaker 2>in Baltimore, with loss of life, just the shock that

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<v Speaker 2>damaged the devastation of the bridge. We scrambled, and our

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<v Speaker 2>leadership was Michael Barr, of course, and Amy Morris with

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<v Speaker 2>ninety nine one FM in Washington where their updates the

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<v Speaker 2>news moving forward. But part of that is team surveillance

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<v Speaker 2>going out and saying, Okay, who are people that understand

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<v Speaker 2>the underlying of a tragic event like this. One of

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<v Speaker 2>them is John kutsonis what's so interesting about John kutsonis

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<v Speaker 2>is not only did he do equity research with City

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<v Speaker 2>Group and others through the years, but also just a

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<v Speaker 2>complete understanding of global shipping. He's a member of the

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<v Speaker 2>board of Synergy out of Athens, Greece, and his Breakwave

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<v Speaker 2>Advisors is somebody that talks about the mechanism the process

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<v Speaker 2>of shipping. Here even on a day when we see

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<v Speaker 2>a tragedy, here is John Consonas And the first thing to.

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<v Speaker 1>Do from a shipping perspective, the first thing you have

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<v Speaker 1>to do is obviously find what went wrong right. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>these are state of the r ships, especially this one

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<v Speaker 1>involved in this accident is a brand new ship. It's

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<v Speaker 1>less than ten years old building Korea. These are high

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<v Speaker 1>quality ships, so it's a very unlikely phenomenon that you

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<v Speaker 1>get something like that. The other thing is obviously you

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<v Speaker 1>have to look at the human error. But again when

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<v Speaker 1>the ships approach ports or tight waterways or areas that

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<v Speaker 1>they don't know very well. You have a experienced personnel

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<v Speaker 1>that gets on board from the port, basically pilots and

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<v Speaker 1>the other ones who are going to steer the ship

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<v Speaker 1>through the waterway. So there are a lot of elements here.

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<v Speaker 1>One is obviously the human element. The other is the

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<v Speaker 1>mechanical failure, which seems to be the case. Here is

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<v Speaker 1>also obviously the timing here, because if you happen like

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<v Speaker 1>or fifteen minutes later, nothing would have gone wrong.

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg continuing coverage of this horrific disaster through the day. Really,

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<v Speaker 2>I will have the Asian coverage here the trip bound

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<v Speaker 2>for Sri Lanka that out of our center tendency of

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<v Speaker 2>Hong Kong and Singapore, and then we'll come around to

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<v Speaker 2>London and of course marisk of the Baltic Sea in Scandinavia,

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<v Speaker 2>we'll have coverage there as well. Yes, I'm the business

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<v Speaker 2>part of it. And then to Baltimore in the absolute shock.

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<v Speaker 2>I thought Governor Wes Moore was particularly articulate about how

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<v Speaker 2>Baltimore now must pick up the pieces, rebuild a bridge,

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<v Speaker 2>mourn those that have died, and move on. And as

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<v Speaker 2>John Katsano said, this will take easily into twenty twenty five.

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<v Speaker 2>Is well. We tried to have a normal coverage too short.

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<v Speaker 2>A conversation with Adam Posen. He's with the Peterson Institute.

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<v Speaker 2>He's been a huge support to Bloomberg surveillance over the years.

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<v Speaker 2>Any number of topics to speak to doctor Posen about.

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<v Speaker 2>I really want to go back to a Robert Armstrong

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<v Speaker 2>essay or interview, I should say in the ft with

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<v Speaker 2>Adam Posen, and I thought it was just just brilliant

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<v Speaker 2>how Adam Posen talked about what he got wrong in

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<v Speaker 2>his economics of the last three or four years. He

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<v Speaker 2>underestimated the resiliency of the American citizen.

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<v Speaker 3>People adapted, they set up new businesses, they moved to

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<v Speaker 3>new jobs, they arranged care. That doesn't mean we should

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<v Speaker 3>leave them to that. It's better that we didn't. But

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<v Speaker 3>we as economists, and particularly people who are on the

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<v Speaker 3>progressive side, where I sort of am, you know, we

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<v Speaker 3>understandably worry a lot about people buffeted by large shocks

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<v Speaker 3>that they have no fault in and they can't control.

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<v Speaker 3>But what I think COVID showed us is people's ability

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<v Speaker 3>to adapt to these shocks is much bigger than we

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<v Speaker 3>worried about, and that leads into all kinds of positive

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<v Speaker 3>though non intended labor market changes in the US that

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<v Speaker 3>I think came out of this process.

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<v Speaker 2>Adam Posen the Peterson Institute. Later on in that conversation,

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<v Speaker 2>Paul Sweeney asked him about productivity, about the efficiency of

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<v Speaker 2>the American economy, and he came out not reluctantly, but

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<v Speaker 2>he said he was a hedged productivity bull. That there

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<v Speaker 2>is something new going on in America that can lead,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, away from the FED babble, can lead to

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<v Speaker 2>a good economy, a developing real GDP, maybe a sprightly

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<v Speaker 2>nominal GDP. And of course the arch matter here to

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<v Speaker 2>the next FED meeting and the key jobs report end

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<v Speaker 2>of March early April jobs report, is this continuing underestimation

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<v Speaker 2>of what GDP is doing. There's some gloomy people out

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<v Speaker 2>there as well, so you got to be careful on that. Really,

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<v Speaker 2>thanks to all of our team today for a huge

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<v Speaker 2>effort in trying to stay on the script that is

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg surveillance, but also our coverage of a bridge down

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<v Speaker 2>in Baltimore, run Apple car play worldwide and across the nation. Also,

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<v Speaker 2>I should say on Google Play, Android Play, I should

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<v Speaker 2>say at Google Play, but at Apple download the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>Business app, and many of you can see a safer,

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<v Speaker 2>better way to listen to us on YouTube. It's search

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Podcasts. Thank you for the growth here, Thank you

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<v Speaker 2>for the comments of live chat. It just done at

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<v Speaker 2>the World Reach. Good morning to Taiwan.