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Speaker 1: Welcome back everybody. It's the Betting Pros College Football Show.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Scott Bogman. Follow me on the Twitter

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Speaker 1: APT Bogman Sports, and I'm only with one of our

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Speaker 1: great analysts this week.

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Speaker 2: It's only Thor.

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Speaker 1: Mike has the week off, couldn't make it in, so

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Speaker 1: we are going without him at Thor ku on the

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Speaker 1: Twitter APT bogmin Sports for myself at m Farrell Sports

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Speaker 1: to R two l's for the absentee Mike Farrell. But look, Thor,

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Speaker 1: it was an interesting week four man. The Notre Dame

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Speaker 1: Ohios Day game was crazy. We had a lot of

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Speaker 1: stuff happen. So just your quick take on what went

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Speaker 1: down in Week four, what surprised you the most and

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Speaker 1: what did you like the most?

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Speaker 3: Fun is Saturday at college football. So far Notre Dame

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Speaker 3: fans would not agree with me, Colorado fans wouldn't agree

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Speaker 3: with me. But I mean, overall, it was so fun.

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Speaker 3: It was a pack day in terms of the games,

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Speaker 3: Like Mike Kansas Jayhawks were playing at two thirty Central

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Speaker 3: against BYU, but there was the three nasty matchups at

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Speaker 3: the same time. So I was like, you know, I

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Speaker 3: was like Tom Cruise, a Minority Report where he's like

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Speaker 3: grabbing the images like like with all the different screens

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Speaker 3: I have like trying to figure it out whatnot. But

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Speaker 3: it was so fun. You had the day where it

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Speaker 3: was super fun and then at night and again Notre

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Speaker 3: Dame fans are going to disagree with me, but a

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Speaker 3: bit of an instant classic with the Ohio State one

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Speaker 3: and the way that that thing ended. And I still

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Speaker 3: can't wrap my head around the way that that game ended.

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Speaker 3: Marcus Freeman's been taking questions about that the last several days.

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Speaker 3: But was a super fun day of college football and

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Speaker 3: I'm ready to try to win some money here in

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Speaker 3: Week five.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be the ten men on the field game.

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Speaker 1: That's what it's going to be the end of the

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Speaker 1: day when we're talking about it. You know, because we

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Speaker 1: remember Bush push and things like that. You know this

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Speaker 1: is going to be the ten men on the field game.

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Speaker 1: So tough, tough blow if youre Notre Dame. But a

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Speaker 1: fun week nonetheless, And hey, football fans, are you ready

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Speaker 1: to put your betting skills to the test? Join the

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros College Football podcast betting group, make your picks

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Speaker 1: all season long, and if you're among the top ROI performers.

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Speaker 1: You could win big prices include a sign Garrett Wilson

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Speaker 1: Ohio State Jersey, and premium subscriptions to Fantasy Pros and

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros.

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Speaker 2: Just make at least one hundred picks throughout the season.

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Speaker 1: To qualify, jump in now at bettingpros dot com, slash college,

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Speaker 1: or in the Betting Pros app under the College Football

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Speaker 1: podcast group May the best better win? All right, Thorp,

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Speaker 1: So we're gonna hit some games here. I think we

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Speaker 1: have one extra since Mike is not here with us.

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Speaker 1: Show will go a little bit quicker today and I'll

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Speaker 1: ask you about your favorites at the end, of course.

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Speaker 1: But let's start out on Friday, number ten, Utah at

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Speaker 1: number nineteen Oregon State. The line right now is three

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Speaker 1: and a half in favor of the home Beavers. Here

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Speaker 1: forty four and a half is the total. Tickets are

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Speaker 1: a little bit on Utah, but cash is favly heavily

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Speaker 1: favored on Oregon State, and the totals not getting a

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Speaker 1: lot of love. But ninety five percent of the tickets

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Speaker 1: are on the under. Do you have a good lean

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Speaker 1: one way or the other at any point in this game?

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Speaker 1: On Friday night.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna do my second pop culture reference at

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Speaker 3: the day. But remembering Game of Thrones where it's John

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Speaker 3: Snow and then all the horses are descending on him

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Speaker 3: and he's guys sword.

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Speaker 1: Sword that's exactinitely wobbling right ten seconds before he unleashed it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I remember that.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's me against the Sharps this week. I am

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Speaker 3: on Utah. I'm on the other side. I know there's

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Speaker 3: a lot of smart people who are on Oregon State here,

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Speaker 3: but especially with the three and a half, I just

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Speaker 3: think that there's a lot of value on Utah here.

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Speaker 3: Utah a team that is four and zero to this point,

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Speaker 3: despite the fact that they've played those four games without

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Speaker 3: a ton of starters, right, Like, I mean, Cam Rising

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Speaker 3: predominantly is the one that's mentioned. Brion Keithy is the

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Speaker 3: other one. But for instance, in the opener against Florida,

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Speaker 3: they be Florida by double digits without eight starters, eight

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Speaker 3: projected starters. They're going to be starting to get some

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Speaker 3: of those guys back. There was a quote from Kyle

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Speaker 3: Whittingham on Monday. We've got about eight or ten guys

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Speaker 3: that are very very close Rising speaking to him. He

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Speaker 3: was medically cleared last week. We all thought he was

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Speaker 3: going to start that plan change at the very end,

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Speaker 3: but he's been at practices and everything like that. There's

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Speaker 3: a shot they get Rising back in this game, and

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Speaker 3: there's a shot that they get multiple other starters back

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Speaker 3: in this game as well. But even without that, I

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Speaker 3: think the advanced data suggests that Utah is a strong

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Speaker 3: play here. At the three and a half, they have

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Speaker 3: a well first of all, I mean, with all those

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Speaker 3: guys out, Utah still has sp plus's number eleven resume strength.

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Speaker 3: To this point, the nasty defense goes without saying, and

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Speaker 3: it shuts down opposing running games. Oregon's entire offense is

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Speaker 3: generated almost predominantly from their running attack. If Utah is

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Speaker 3: able to take that thing away or greatly slow it,

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Speaker 3: which is what I think is going to happen, it's

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Speaker 3: going to force you a gallele to move the ball.

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Speaker 3: He's been able to hit a couple of long shots,

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Speaker 3: but like the efficiency, it's not there, and I think

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Speaker 3: that could be a problem here where you're punting, you're punting,

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Speaker 3: you're punting. And then meanwhile on the other side, Oregon

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Speaker 3: State has a solid defense but it's not as good

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Speaker 3: as you. Utah's defense and Utah their offense. It's basically

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Speaker 3: just a lesser version of what Oregon State it tries

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Speaker 3: to do. It's the same sort of schema when Cam

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Speaker 3: Rising is not in chip Away with the run, chip

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Speaker 3: Away with the run and an explosive pass play is

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Speaker 3: there every now and again. I think Utah's defense that's

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Speaker 3: the elite unit in this game. I think they put

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Speaker 3: a brake on Oregon States offense. And we have the

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Speaker 3: bullets here of all those kids that could potentially come

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Speaker 3: back for Utah, including Cam Rising. I'm playing this one

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Speaker 3: three and a half what not without any of that

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Speaker 3: information the guys that could return, but if they do,

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Speaker 3: we have an enormous amount of value here on Utah.

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Speaker 3: I'm taking the utes.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 1: Let's go over to Saturday number eight. USC is a

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Speaker 1: twenty one and a half point road favorite at Colorado.

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Speaker 1: The total is seventy three and a half big total here. Look,

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Speaker 1: tickets of cash are on USC. The tickets in cash

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Speaker 1: are split on the total here, most of the cash

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Speaker 1: going towards the under in this game, I mean, I

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Speaker 1: I think USC's gonna win thor and I think they're

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Speaker 1: gonna win going away. The question is it to me

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Speaker 1: is about the total because I think I'm definitely on

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Speaker 1: the Trojans here. Colorado kind of looked like what we

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Speaker 1: expected them to look like week one. Last week against

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Speaker 1: a great Oregon team that was obviously inspired. Dan Lanning

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Speaker 1: let his feelings known here, but sure your thoughts on

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Speaker 1: this usc Colorado tilt.

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Speaker 3: So did the Orgon video team. I don't know if

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Speaker 3: you saw that that four minute cinematic redo they out

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Speaker 3: of the game or whatever, and they were they were

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Speaker 3: showing Shilah Sanders talking junk before the game, and they

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Speaker 3: were showing the one Colorado kid it was kicking the

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Speaker 3: oh before the game, and that the rest of it

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Speaker 3: was just Oregon annihilating them. Because of the results of

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Speaker 3: that game, I think that there is a little bit

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Speaker 3: of value on Colorado, but it's it's getting zapp now.

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Speaker 3: I bought a car rat a plus twenty four and

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Speaker 3: a half ticket on Sunday. My adjusted line is USC

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Speaker 3: minus nineteen point four. That's in a vacuum. You know,

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Speaker 3: you can add a couple of points or a point

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Speaker 3: and a half for Travis Hunter whatever. I would play

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Speaker 3: Colorado at the twenty one and a half, but not

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Speaker 3: at twenty one. I think that's where the buck would

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Speaker 3: stop there. Like I said, you're really you're getting closer

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Speaker 3: to the margins. Now I agree with it you say

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Speaker 3: about USC for sure as the best offense in America.

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Speaker 3: They also sort of sneakily have a top ten special

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Speaker 3: teams unit this year, in part because of the kicks. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: the return yeah, mister branch there, Yeah, elevating that whole thing.

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Speaker 3: And the defense has gotten a little bit better too.

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Speaker 3: They're up to number forty one. It might not seem

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Speaker 3: like that because of not as last year they had

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Speaker 3: that the historical fluke with the turnovers that they were generating, whatnot.

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Speaker 3: But you like that sort of stuff. But the defense

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Speaker 3: still isn't great great, and it still struggles to tackle.

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Speaker 3: I think Colorado can generate enough points here if you're

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Speaker 3: giving them three possessions on the line. Shadeer Sanders continues

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Speaker 3: to be incredible. Shadeer Sanders has been pressured, I believe

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Speaker 3: in the aggregate more than any other quarterback this year,

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Speaker 3: or if it's not that it's top three, and yet

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Speaker 3: he is top five if among qualifying quarterbacks in PFF

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Speaker 3: passing grade under duress, so he gets a lot of it,

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Speaker 3: but he knows how to handle that sort of thing.

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Speaker 3: Colorado's offense they can't really run the ball. That's one

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Speaker 3: of the problems. But you know, between Sanders and then

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Speaker 3: between the getting the ball into space and forcing USC

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Speaker 3: to tackle them, I'm willing to take those points with them.

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Speaker 3: Like I said, if it's over twenty one, if it

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Speaker 3: hits twenty one, I'm not interested in that. And then

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Speaker 3: as far as the total over for sure, you know,

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Speaker 3: I talked about this with your buddy Welsh on Sunday.

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Speaker 3: I think that on that day it was like seventy one.

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Speaker 3: My system has this thing either mid seventies, high seventies,

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Speaker 3: so you know, it was like over over over, and

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Speaker 3: it's gone up by about a field goal ever since then,

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Speaker 3: less value there, for sure. I would still lean over

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Speaker 3: on that. But that's where I be in this one.

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Speaker 1: I mean, has what is it? What is USC on

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Speaker 1: the season for over unders? I mean, are they four

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Speaker 1: and oher on the overs here? Like I know they've

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Speaker 1: hit a lot of overs so far. I know, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: this is a Lincoln Riley trade, isn't it.

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Speaker 3: The four games to this point have gone over. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: and the average nine point five points over the total

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Speaker 3: per game for USC.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and this is a Lincoln Riley trade. Great offense,

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Speaker 1: bad defense. So we've seen in Oklahoma, we've seen it

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Speaker 1: at USC now and it is interesting. But let's move

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Speaker 1: over to the sec number twenty two. Florida on the

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Speaker 1: road at Kentucky. Kentucky is a three point home favorite.

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Speaker 2: Here.

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Speaker 1: The tickets and cash are favoring Kentucky. The total here

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Speaker 1: is forty four tickets and cash both on the over.

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Speaker 1: Both tickets are closer to US split than cash is

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Speaker 1: favoring on the over and on Kentucky. Here, what are

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Speaker 1: your thoughts? I mean, because Florida has been up and down,

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Speaker 1: Kentucky's been good. I don't know if they're good enough

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Speaker 1: for this line though, What do you think about it?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna lay the three or the two and

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Speaker 3: a half with Kentucky. I'm I'm perfectly comfortable with that.

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Speaker 3: I think this is a really good matchup for Kentucky.

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Speaker 3: You look at the Florida team like you look down

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Speaker 3: at their advanced stat profile. They're a very clear you

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Speaker 3: know where they lean whatnot. Their offense is efficient, and

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Speaker 3: their their defense is efficient as well, but the offense

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Speaker 3: can't generate explosive plays and the defense gets ripped for

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Speaker 3: too many explosive plays. So when you're looking to play

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Speaker 3: on them or against them, you're looking at the opponent

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Speaker 3: and how they sort of fit in with that. Kentucky

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Speaker 3: four and all start three and one against the spread.

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Speaker 3: They are sneakily because I don't think people know this

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Speaker 3: about them. One of the most explosive offenses in the

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Speaker 3: country so far, number four marginal explosiveness, and they're there.

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Speaker 3: Their defense also takes away the explos to plays number seven.

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Speaker 3: Their defense is also efficient, So I think Kentucky's defense

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Speaker 3: can address, well, you know what Florida wants to do

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Speaker 3: greatly slow them down, whereas Kentucky's offense directly goes into

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Speaker 3: the weakness of the Florida defense. I think Kentucky's going

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Speaker 3: to generate a lot of explosive plays on Saturday, and

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Speaker 3: I like them. I like them to win by more

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Speaker 3: than a field goal.

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Speaker 2: It's going to be a fun one, for sure.

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Speaker 1: This one is going to be fun for you and

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Speaker 1: I thorn number twenty four Kansas coming in ranked at

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Speaker 1: number three. Texas here last time this game was in Texas.

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Speaker 1: I think, wasn't that the one that I was at

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Speaker 1: Thor that went into overtime and Kansas won on the

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Speaker 1: two point conversion and Beijon got hurt and Casey Thompson

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Speaker 1: was still at Texas at that point, not getting a.

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Speaker 3: Game, and can I buy your ticket? On your ticket,

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Speaker 3: I'm not going.

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Speaker 2: I'm not going. I don't need to plan anyway. It's

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Speaker 2: three hour drive.

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Speaker 1: But sixteen and a half is the line here in

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Speaker 1: favor of my Longhorn. Sixty three and a half is

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Speaker 1: the total the ticket in Casher on Kansas. They have

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Speaker 1: been the bane of Texas's existence. Yeah, I mean Texas

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Speaker 1: did just speed bump Baylor on the way out of

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Speaker 1: the Big twelve, which I thought was very good, and

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Speaker 1: I feel like they might do that to Kansas here

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Speaker 1: as well.

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Speaker 2: What do you think?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a this is a tough one. You know.

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Speaker 3: I'm trying to stay away from betting the Kansas gates more,

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Speaker 3: you know, because you already have enough invested in you know.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if you feel the same way about Texas, But.

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Speaker 1: Well, I was mad at Kansas by not beating the

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Speaker 1: VATA by twenty eight with the worst offense in the

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Speaker 1: league and letting them score.

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Speaker 2: That made me mad.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And I always had Texas ever, because it's always

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Speaker 1: bad luck for me.

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Speaker 3: So that was a bad situational spot for Kansas. This

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Speaker 3: is a bad situational spot for Texas next week, as

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Speaker 3: you know, as the Red River shootout. This you're gonna

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Speaker 3: have look ahead to that thing. And even though the

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Speaker 3: other thing, like you're mentioning, Kansas has been the sort

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Speaker 3: of the sneaky bane of Texas's existence, it's you know,

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Speaker 3: I mean the previous supset to that was when they

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Speaker 3: ended Charlie Strong's although maybe Longhorned fans look back at

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Speaker 3: that one longingly because you got him out of there. Kansas.

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Speaker 1: Five carries for Deontay Foreman is what I remember, and

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Speaker 1: still losing.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, And you know in Kansas, the other thing

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Speaker 3: is they've also been close. They've had a couple near

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Speaker 3: misses where they almost upset Texas. But you do have

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Speaker 3: that overlook for Texas in this game. Oklahoma looks a

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Speaker 3: lot better this year. That's obviously the big one there.

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Speaker 3: In terms of my numbers, they don't suggest there's any

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Speaker 3: value here. I think I had Texas by nineteen point

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Speaker 3: five like something like that. But between all those things,

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Speaker 3: I understand why this line has, you know, seventeen and

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Speaker 3: a half, then seventeen. Now it's down to sixteen and

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Speaker 3: a half. I think the sharps in the market understand

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Speaker 3: what kind of a spot this is for Texas, a

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Speaker 3: really tough spot, and there's things that Kansas can do

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Speaker 3: that can I'm not going to say give Texas a

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Speaker 3: defense trouble, but where they can try to solve and

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Speaker 3: move away from the pronounced strengths of it. As you know,

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Speaker 3: the Texas defensive line this year is absolute nasty. I

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Speaker 3: think in Kansas on their side, they have one of

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Speaker 3: the better Yeah, Kansas has one of the better offensive

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Speaker 3: game planning staffs in America that I don't think people

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Speaker 3: realize that, but it's just so smart and it's always

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Speaker 3: game and matchup specific. You can this is not a

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Speaker 3: Devin Neil game, So you're gonna be playing the Unders

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Speaker 3: and Devin Neils props because I think they're gonna go

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Speaker 3: away from the run, use it more for the play action,

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Speaker 3: different stuff like that. This is a Jalen Daniels game.

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Speaker 3: Ken Jalen Daniels put a scare into Texas and or

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Speaker 3: upset them. He's already done at one time. The quarterback

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Speaker 3: of Kansas team the last time they went into Austin

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Speaker 3: upset Texas was Jalen Daniels. You mentioned it, the two

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Speaker 3: point conversion. What they're going to try to do is

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Speaker 3: confuse the safeties at Texas and then get the ball

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Speaker 3: onto the side of the field where they have the

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Speaker 3: number advantage, and then play keep away on the perimeters,

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Speaker 3: and then and then deep they're you know, taking some

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Speaker 3: deep shots whatnot. It's all gonna come down to that.

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Speaker 3: Jalen Daniels. You look at the qualified PFF quarterbacks. I

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Speaker 3: think he's top five in grade so far this season.

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Speaker 3: He missed the opener against the FCS team, but that

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Speaker 3: just means he didn't have any stat padding whatever. He's

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Speaker 3: been playing pretty well so far in this game. Up

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Speaker 3: to this point, Kansas's passing offense had been a little

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Speaker 3: more risk averse. I don't know if Jalen Daniels is

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Speaker 3: at any maybe one turnover worthy play as charted by PFF,

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Speaker 3: but I think only two big time throws because he's

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Speaker 3: just been keeping it out of those tight windows so far.

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Speaker 3: This is a game where they need to go into

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Speaker 3: the They're gonna have to go into the tight windows

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Speaker 3: a little bit more. So that's gonna be some something

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Speaker 3: interesting to look at. The Other thing I'll mention about

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Speaker 3: Daniels that helps in this game is he has been

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Speaker 3: very good under duress to this point. You know, we

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Speaker 3: were talking about that stat whatnot. His play has not

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Speaker 3: cratered as much as most of the quarterbacks. You look

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Speaker 3: at the qualifying quarterbacks in terms of PFF under pressure grades,

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Speaker 3: he is way way high up there. That is what

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Speaker 3: is going to have to carry the day for him here.

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Speaker 3: Last week against BYU, Daniels was consistently under duress. Texas

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Speaker 3: is defense is going to bring it a lot more

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Speaker 3: than that. But if Daniels can continue to make the

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Speaker 3: correct decisions under pressure and stuff like that, at least

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Speaker 3: gives them the shot. This is a stayaway for me.

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Speaker 3: I will just be a fan in this game. But again,

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Speaker 3: I understand what that line is dropped Beneze sixteen or

337
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Speaker 3: Benize seventeen.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I understand all the offensive stuff, but to me,

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Speaker 1: it's about Kansas can't do anything on defense, not against Texas.

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Speaker 3: That's a tough thing.

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Speaker 1: I think Texas is going to score most drives, so

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Speaker 1: they're gonna stop themselves with some drops because the wide

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Speaker 1: receivers at Texas do drop the ball on occasion. Hopefully

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Speaker 1: those don't turn into picks or anything, because that's where

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Speaker 1: you get in trouble. But I just don't you know,

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Speaker 1: Texas offense is rolling right now.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, in Kansas's defense, only eighty fourth sp plus Obviously,

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Speaker 3: that is the weakness Kansas offense its top twenty s

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Speaker 3: pplus and by the way, Kansas is the number one

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Speaker 3: sp plus special teams unit. If we get really close

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Speaker 3: to the margins on this line during the game, Kansas'

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Speaker 3: special teams potentially could help them there. But the Kansas

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Speaker 3: defensive profile is interesting. They're going to force quinn Ewers

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Speaker 3: to be a little bit more methodical through the air.

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Speaker 3: Kansas pass defense not good in success rate ninety second,

356
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Speaker 3: but they're thirty third in marginal explosiveness. But they have

357
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Speaker 3: the opposite tendency as a rush defense, thirty seventh in

358
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Speaker 3: success rate, but only one hundred and eleventh in terms

359
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Speaker 3: of allowing those explosive runs. Jonathan Brooks got loose a

360
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Speaker 3: couple times last week. He's been playing very well mister

361
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Speaker 3: Jonathan Brooks, that's one thing that has to concern you

362
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Speaker 3: just a little bit. On that side, Jonathan Brooks would

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Speaker 3: be an overplay this week.

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Speaker 1: I think so too, so good call on that for sure.

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Speaker 1: Let's go over to the back to the SEC.

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Speaker 3: Number one.

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Speaker 1: Georgia, a fourteen and a half point road favorite at

368
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Speaker 1: Auburn forty six and a half, is totally here. Look,

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Speaker 1: Georgia is they got to be number one, I think

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Speaker 1: on all the ballots, right, Like I understand Texas got

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Speaker 1: a couple number one votes and I think Florida State

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Speaker 1: might have got one to There's other good teams, but

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Speaker 1: you know, george is working on a three pet here.

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Speaker 1: But the one thing I will say about Georgia that

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Speaker 1: annoys me, Thor is that they seem to sleepwalk a

376
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Speaker 1: lot through the first half. And that is super annoying.

377
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Speaker 1: And look, you could probably do that against this Auburn team.

378
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Speaker 1: You probably can and still win and maybe even cover.

379
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Speaker 1: But you know, you can't make this a habit. That's

380
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Speaker 1: what I've seen from Georgia so far is maybe a

381
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Speaker 1: little bit of sleepwalking through that first half because they

382
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Speaker 1: don't need to get serious until the second half. Because

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Speaker 1: they are so good. So your thoughts on this sec tilt.

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Speaker 3: Here, Yeah, I totally agree with that take. That's the

385
00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:41,479
Speaker 3: thing that concerns you a little bit. Georgia hasn't been

386
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Speaker 3: covering this year. They haven't been covering their gifts. You

387
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Speaker 3: look at their cover point per game, like in the aggregate,

388
00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:51,720
Speaker 3: their scores against the spread, whatnot. Georgia's minus nine point

389
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Speaker 3: five points per game so far. That ranks one hundred

390
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Speaker 3: and twenty fourth in the nation. So to your point, yeah,

391
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Speaker 3: I mean, certainly they are, you know, a contender to win,

392
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Speaker 3: you know, the third straight national title. They are a

393
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Speaker 3: decided front runner to qualify for the playoffs, in part

394
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Speaker 3: because their schedules so easy. But you have seen them

395
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Speaker 3: walk through these games, to your point, and in this one,

396
00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:16,719
Speaker 3: you're not too concerned about the opponent. So my concern

397
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Speaker 3: if I would buy a Georgia ticket in this game,

398
00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:21,200
Speaker 3: is it's gonna be another thing like that where they

399
00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:23,840
Speaker 3: just sort of go in and roll the ball forward whatnot.

400
00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:26,760
Speaker 3: Next week they have Kentucky. I'm not saying it's you know,

401
00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:29,159
Speaker 3: an overlook game or anything like that, but Kentucky is

402
00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:31,600
Speaker 3: undefeated to this point, and you have to be a

403
00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:34,160
Speaker 3: little bit concerned about about that sleepwalking sort of thing,

404
00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:39,040
Speaker 3: like we're talking about. George's pass defense is awesome, Peyton

405
00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:41,120
Speaker 3: Thorn has not been the best. And when they bring

406
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:42,960
Speaker 3: in Robbie, you know, through the air. When they bring

407
00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:45,480
Speaker 3: in Robbie Ashford, he's just sort of the run around guy.

408
00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:47,879
Speaker 3: So Auburn's not gonna be able to pass in this game.

409
00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:50,960
Speaker 3: But ken Auburn's rushing attack have any success against the

410
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:54,679
Speaker 3: Georgia rush defense. That's seventy eighth in opportunity rate, eighty

411
00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:58,000
Speaker 3: first and success rate, and only forty fourth in rushing

412
00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:01,440
Speaker 3: success rate overall, which a cour down from those past

413
00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:04,840
Speaker 3: couple Georgia defenses where you just did not have any

414
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Speaker 3: conception whatsoever heading into the game that we're going to

415
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:09,600
Speaker 3: run the ball. You just couldn't. They would just shut

416
00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:12,000
Speaker 3: down the lights on that. So those are the things

417
00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:15,240
Speaker 3: you're looking at here. I would go and offensively, Georgia

418
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:18,119
Speaker 3: doesn't have much explosion either. My leaning this one, if

419
00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:21,080
Speaker 3: you're getting over the fourteen would be Auburn. My line

420
00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 3: on this game is Georgia minus twelve point seven. So

421
00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:25,760
Speaker 3: I do think that there's a little bit of line

422
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:29,440
Speaker 3: value there, and particularly with how Georgia has been against

423
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:31,399
Speaker 3: the spread and the sleepwalking thing, like we're talking about.

424
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Speaker 1: All right, let's stick in the sec in a game.

425
00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:36,760
Speaker 1: I know you like here, Texas A and M a

426
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:40,000
Speaker 1: six and a half point road favorite at Arkansas fifty

427
00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:43,480
Speaker 1: five and a half is total tickets are on the Razorbacks,

428
00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:49,119
Speaker 1: cash is on the Aggies. The total here is pretty

429
00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:53,440
Speaker 1: firmly on the under. But I mean, can Arkansas stay

430
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:54,280
Speaker 1: alive in this game?

431
00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,960
Speaker 3: I don't think so. I like gay and I'm quite

432
00:20:57,960 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 3: a bit in this one. My line is A and

433
00:20:59,880 --> 00:21:03,760
Speaker 3: M is nine point two. It looks as though, you know,

434
00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:06,080
Speaker 3: in college, as you know, Bagman, they don't give us

435
00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:08,359
Speaker 3: the injury reports so early in the week when it's

436
00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:11,800
Speaker 3: an important player. You always just you're watching the press conference,

437
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:14,800
Speaker 3: You're reading the quotes, You're looking at the beat writers

438
00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:18,119
Speaker 3: and how they're indicating and whatnot. My read on this

439
00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:20,720
Speaker 3: is that Rockett Sanders is probably gonna be out again.

440
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,160
Speaker 3: Rocket Sanders did return to practice last week. Of course,

441
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,480
Speaker 3: he didn't play in the game against LSU last weekend.

442
00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:31,080
Speaker 3: But the thing that Sam Pittman said earlier this week

443
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:33,199
Speaker 3: when he's been asked about it, is like you know,

444
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:35,840
Speaker 3: you know, the standard fare the coaches of like we're

445
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:38,200
Speaker 3: hopefully he can be back and he's progressing and whatnot.

446
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 3: But I found it very interesting that Sam Pittman concede

447
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:45,680
Speaker 3: it on Tuesday. Rocket has been back and he can

448
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:49,560
Speaker 3: move north south fine, but he hasn't started cutting yet.

449
00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,080
Speaker 2: That's a big part of a running backs job.

450
00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 3: Man. It's a problem. Yeah, Like if you're not if

451
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:57,720
Speaker 3: you don't trust it enough to be sticking your foot

452
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:00,360
Speaker 3: in the dirt and the quick cuts whatnot. I find

453
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:01,640
Speaker 3: it hard to believe that.

454
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:03,720
Speaker 1: I wouldn't give somebody a license if they can drive

455
00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:06,320
Speaker 1: straight real well, but they can't turn left or right

456
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:06,920
Speaker 1: and come on.

457
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:07,399
Speaker 3: Well sides.

458
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 2: Guy ain't playing indeed.

459
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:11,479
Speaker 3: So I think he's probably gonna be out barring a

460
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:13,560
Speaker 3: you know, over the next forty eight hours some sort

461
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:16,199
Speaker 3: of miracle with that. And assuming he is out, it

462
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:18,959
Speaker 3: goes back to the kJ Jefferson Show. We know what

463
00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:22,360
Speaker 3: that's about now, Like kJ Jefferson. When you have them

464
00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:24,919
Speaker 3: with Rocket that offense, at least it can keep you

465
00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 3: off off balance and different stuff like that. When it

466
00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:31,360
Speaker 3: becomes the kJ Jefferson Show, it's like kJ he has

467
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:33,959
Speaker 3: to carve out more in the running game and then

468
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:36,199
Speaker 3: the path. There's so much pressure on him against these

469
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:38,640
Speaker 3: good opponents to win through the air. I don't think

470
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 3: that's going to work here against the Texas A and

471
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 3: M defense. It's number nine sp plus right now. The

472
00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:46,800
Speaker 3: other thing is in terms of the on field handicap

473
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:51,679
Speaker 3: here Arkansas's defense, it's really interesting where they are able

474
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:55,440
Speaker 3: to generate heat. They're able to generate havoc by being

475
00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:59,239
Speaker 3: super aggressive. But if you can stand up to that,

476
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 3: if you know, on any given play, if you can

477
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:04,400
Speaker 3: prevent them from getting into the backfield getting that pressure,

478
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 3: get the ball off with the look you want, whatnot?

479
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 3: They get ripped for long plays all the time. So

480
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,800
Speaker 3: it becomes can the opposing offensive line handle that sort

481
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 3: of pressure and that the hair on fire defensive style

482
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:18,919
Speaker 3: that Arkansas has. Arkansas defense right now number two and

483
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 3: have it great, But the overall defense one hundred and

484
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:26,119
Speaker 3: twelve in ISOPPP, which is a metric that measures the

485
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 3: explosive plays. Arkansas's defense is also one hundred and fifth

486
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 3: in marginal explosiveness. So you look at A and M,

487
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 3: are they a kind of offense that can profile to

488
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:37,560
Speaker 3: take advantage of that A and M right now number

489
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:41,119
Speaker 3: twenty fifth overall sp plus offense, but twenty eighth in

490
00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 3: isoppp number twenty fourth in big play rate, and A

491
00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:48,160
Speaker 3: and M is number forty one and have a rate allowed.

492
00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:51,120
Speaker 3: So they you know, I think enough so they're gonna

493
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 3: be able to hold off that havoc, and once they do,

494
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:56,200
Speaker 3: the explosive players are just going to be there for them.

495
00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:59,400
Speaker 3: And I think this regardless of whether, by the way,

496
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 3: speaking of another injury, Connor Wiegman plays or doesn't. I

497
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,399
Speaker 3: could care less. I'm on A and M either way,

498
00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 3: whether it's Max Johnson out there or whether it's Weakman.

499
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 3: This isn't a thing of like, oh, I only like

500
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:13,199
Speaker 3: A and M if Weigman's playing. To me, it's a

501
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 3: negligible kind of difference. I mean, if you wanted to

502
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 3: argue to meet knock him down a half a point,

503
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:21,160
Speaker 3: maybe I can sde that to you. I can't see

504
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,400
Speaker 3: anyone knocking A and him down more than that. Max

505
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 3: Johnson is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the nation.

506
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 3: He's also one of the most experienced. People are going

507
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 3: to be surprised to hear this stat but I'll say it.

508
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:34,440
Speaker 3: It's true. You can look it up. Max Johnson's career

509
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:38,119
Speaker 3: td I and T rate forty two to seven, forty

510
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 3: two to seven. This kid has been back there in

511
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 3: the pocket. He's not his mobile, you know. Weagman's a

512
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 3: little bit more athletic, So you are going to have

513
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:48,879
Speaker 3: him back there against that Arkansas pass rush whatnot. But

514
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:50,800
Speaker 3: A and M is a pretty good offensive line that

515
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 3: is going to be able to hold up. Johnson's going

516
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:55,160
Speaker 3: to take a couple of sacks if it is indeed him,

517
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:58,359
Speaker 3: but once you know, when that is addressed, he's going

518
00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:00,320
Speaker 3: to be able to hit those long shots. That kid

519
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:02,200
Speaker 3: has a really good arm. He's the son of the

520
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,639
Speaker 3: former NFL quarterback Brad Johnson, and this kid's been starting

521
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 3: game since going back to the post championship year at LSU.

522
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:11,360
Speaker 3: I like A and M either way in this thing.

523
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:13,639
Speaker 3: I would certainly play him up to seven and like

524
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:16,440
Speaker 3: I said, my line on this thing is nine point two.

525
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,240
Speaker 3: In fact, I scrap what I just said. I would

526
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:20,879
Speaker 3: play and M up to nine and a half in

527
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 3: this game as long as this thing is anything in

528
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:24,400
Speaker 3: the single digits. I like the Aggies.

529
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:27,919
Speaker 1: By the way, Max Johnson is zero interceptions as an

530
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:32,399
Speaker 1: Aggie obviously with more playing time with LSU also, But

531
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:33,159
Speaker 1: I just looked it up.

532
00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 2: I couldn't believe that's the one where you're lie.

533
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:37,440
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go, did he Was he reading the wrong

534
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:41,080
Speaker 1: Max Johnson's Yeah? Now forty two to seven at twenty seven.

535
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 3: You have to give the cave yet, because it sounds

536
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:45,719
Speaker 3: like a lie that A and M's backup quarterback has

537
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 3: a forty two to seven career tdn T rate. But

538
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:51,440
Speaker 3: it's totally true. And Max Johnson is a guy who

539
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:53,440
Speaker 3: I mean, A and M is fortunate to have Max

540
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 3: Johnson because that guy could start for a minimum seventy

541
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:00,400
Speaker 3: programs in the FBS and probably more than.

542
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 2: That, right exactly.

543
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:06,199
Speaker 1: Well, Hey, look, have you guys downloaded the free Betting

544
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:09,119
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545
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:12,760
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546
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,879
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547
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:20,840
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548
00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:24,720
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549
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:27,000
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550
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:29,880
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551
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,040
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552
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:34,439
Speaker 1: you could lock it in locking your bet at the

553
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 1: ideal line. You can set the number to B and

554
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:40,400
Speaker 1: set it by sportsbook as well. Head over to bettingpros

555
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 1: dot com slash apps to start setting your alerts today,

556
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 1: or download the Betting Pros app in the iTunes.

557
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:47,960
Speaker 2: Or Google Play stores.

558
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:51,920
Speaker 1: Right now, let's stick in the sec thore and go

559
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:55,359
Speaker 1: over to Max Shahnson's whole team LSU number thirteen eight

560
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:57,879
Speaker 1: two and a half point road favorite at number twenty

561
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 1: oh Miss sixty six and a half is the total. Look,

562
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 1: everyone's all over LSU here and the over? Is there

563
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:09,120
Speaker 1: an argument against that? I mean, ole Miss just did

564
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:11,880
Speaker 1: not look good last week? So what do we feel

565
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 1: in this LSU ole Miss game?

566
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 3: There is bagman, and I'm about to make it once

567
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 3: The rebels burned me last week, but I'm going back

568
00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:23,399
Speaker 3: on the train, and anyone out there that doesn't want

569
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,679
Speaker 3: to follow me this time around, I totally get it.

570
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 2: He can't get rid of her. That's it.

571
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 3: I wish I knew how to quit laying kiff, but

572
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:33,920
Speaker 3: I don't. Here's the argument for them, first of all,

573
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:36,640
Speaker 3: just from the data perspective, my system has a line

574
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 3: on this game of ole Miss minus one and a half,

575
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 3: so it would suggest that the wrong team is favored.

576
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 3: Obviously we're pretty close here with the line being three

577
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:46,240
Speaker 3: or whatever, but you have a little bit of value

578
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 3: with the home underdog just heading into the handicap, and

579
00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:52,399
Speaker 3: then let's start with the unfield handicap. LSU three and

580
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:55,200
Speaker 3: one so far, but clearly a bit of a disappointment

581
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:57,359
Speaker 3: in regards to what we felt they would be in

582
00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:00,919
Speaker 3: the preseason. Everybody watched them get embarrassed and handled by

583
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:02,760
Speaker 3: Florida State the second half of that game when they

584
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 3: pulled away, and then last week that Rocket Sanders less

585
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 3: Arkansas team that we were just talking about, LSU only

586
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:12,520
Speaker 3: got by them thirty eight to thirty five. It wasn't

587
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 3: terribly impressed with their performance there. The offense has been

588
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 3: what we thought. That's the one part of that team

589
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 3: where it's remained where the expectation was. They ranked the

590
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:26,239
Speaker 3: LSU offense number five SP plus. The defense, though, has

591
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 3: been a horrible disappointment, and the special team stink. The

592
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:34,280
Speaker 3: defense this year forty seventh SP plus. They can be had.

593
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 3: That LSU defense and the special teams is ninety third.

594
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 3: Ole Miss. First of all, you have an enormous advantage

595
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:42,760
Speaker 3: in the special teams in this game, but you also

596
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:45,680
Speaker 3: the ole Miss offense going up against the LSU defense

597
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:49,560
Speaker 3: is an enormous advantage for ole Miss in this game.

598
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 3: The Rebels number twenty ninth, marginal efficiency, number eleventh marginal

599
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:58,400
Speaker 3: explosiveness on offense. LSU has been both giving up too

600
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:01,840
Speaker 3: many explosive plays on defense. They also allow the opposing

601
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 3: offense just to stay on schedule. They just haven't figured

602
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:07,320
Speaker 3: that out. Like you know, we've made the jokes about,

603
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 3: you know, they move Harold Perkins this way and that,

604
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 3: and some of the lack of continuity there, the game

605
00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 3: planning type stuff. I don't like that defense at all.

606
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 3: I think the Rebels offense has a really big game here.

607
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 3: And while I do think that LSU is going to

608
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 3: be able to score, I just don't think they're gonna

609
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 3: be able to keep up with the scoring with the Rebels.

610
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 3: I once again, I like the Rebels in an upset,

611
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 3: so I'm gonna take the three points. I have a

612
00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 3: money line ticket as well.

613
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 1: I understand. Yeah, look, this game could go either way.

614
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 1: The thing that I don't like here is putting money

615
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 1: in the hands of Jaden Daniels. That is my thing

616
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:43,400
Speaker 1: is that you don't know if you're getting Heisman Jayden

617
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 1: Daniels or you know, back ASU days Jayden Daniels. I

618
00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 1: just from game to game, he kind of fluctuates a

619
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:54,120
Speaker 1: bit too much for me to have a lot of

620
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 1: trust in him.

621
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:57,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, and Bagman to that point, like the games where

622
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,600
Speaker 3: he is written through the air right, like you always

623
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 3: get the rushing element from him and stuff like that.

624
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:06,520
Speaker 3: His passing stats, I would say, are a little bit

625
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 3: skewed because I watched the LSU Missippi State game and

626
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 3: Missippi State had the weirdest defensive strategy I've ever seen

627
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 3: In that game, especially against Jane.

628
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 1: He completed thirty of thirty four. He had an eighty

629
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 1: eight completion percentage then, and I can.

630
00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 3: Tell you why, because Misissippi State kept two safeties like

631
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:28,480
Speaker 3: they were like in the end zone they were so

632
00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:31,959
Speaker 3: far back, and then with the cornerbacks, they were playing

633
00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 3: off the receivers too, and so LSU just kept doing

634
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:38,360
Speaker 3: short crosser stuff, particularly to mylite neighbors. Every single time

635
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 3: it was like Daniels gets a shotgun snap right away

636
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 3: to throw it right to my leak, you know, two

637
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 3: yards in front of the line of scrimmage and then

638
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 3: just watch him run. That was his passing. You know,

639
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 3: awesomeness that game, like I said, inflated. And then we

640
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 3: were talking about the Arkansas pass defense before where they

641
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:57,680
Speaker 3: can be had as well. For the explosive plays in

642
00:30:58,080 --> 00:30:58,480
Speaker 3: this game.

643
00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 1: You only had twenty completions for three hundred and twenty

644
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 1: yards last week in four scores.

645
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, talk about explosive plays.

646
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 3: Jeez, yeah, this game. So the I'm sorry, miss ABIs

647
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:14,600
Speaker 3: defense thirty first sbplus overall, but top twenty five in

648
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 3: depriving explosive plays. So they're gonna make LSU work for

649
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 3: it and not work for it in the way of

650
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 3: we'll let Malik Neighbors be wide open within five yards

651
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 3: of the line of scrimmage every single play. They're actually

652
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 3: gonna make LSU work for it. So I like the

653
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 3: matchup of all Missus offense against LSU's defense more than

654
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 3: the one vice versa. And like I mentioned, Ole, miss

655
00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 3: has the special team's edge. Two.

656
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 1: Let's go back to number eleven, as in men on

657
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 1: the field, you're supposed to have Notre Dame.

658
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 3: At Notre Dame fans they've already turned this thing off.

659
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 1: They don't want to hear it this week. I understand

660
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 1: at number seventeen, Duke fifty one and a half is

661
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 1: a total. Notre Dame is a five and a half

662
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 1: point road favorite. The tickets are on Notre Dame. The

663
00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 1: cash it's just slightly on Duke right before we started

664
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 1: recording this, but the tickets and money are both on

665
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 1: the under in this game.

666
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:05,080
Speaker 2: Is that what you see here?

667
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:05,320
Speaker 3: Thorn?

668
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 1: Do you like an underplay? Do you like a side

669
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:09,360
Speaker 1: play here? What do you like in Notre Dame at Duke?

670
00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 3: I would slightly lean towards Duke in terms of the

671
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:15,960
Speaker 3: side My line is Notre Dame minus four point six.

672
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 3: My system, though it actually likes the over I'm not

673
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 3: sure that I would follow on that one, you know.

674
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 3: I mean it's not always the data, you know, you

675
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 3: got to get into the handicap whatnot. But Duke's offense,

676
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 3: of course, is able to do things to score on

677
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 3: even good defenses, like we've seen that so far. The

678
00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 3: Clemson game is an example of this. They got they

679
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:37,560
Speaker 3: got bailed up. Their defense got bailed out by Clemson's

680
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 3: offense in that game. But Riley Leonard had a good game, whatnot,

681
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:44,240
Speaker 3: They'll be able to do some stuff here the side.

682
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 3: Like I said, I don't think that there's a ton

683
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 3: of value on it. But the why it's so hard

684
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 3: to stop Duke's offense is it's just crazy efficient. They're

685
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 3: number four success rate. And then on the other side,

686
00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 3: Duke's defense totally takes away your explosive plays. Like obviously

687
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 3: Mike Elco is the coach, he will not allow the

688
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 3: opposing offense to get those explosive plays. Duke is number

689
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 3: one their defense and isoppp number two marginal explosiveness, number

690
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 3: five in explosive play rate. They're gonna make Notre Dame

691
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 3: work for it. Notre Dame has been able to generate

692
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:20,440
Speaker 3: some explosive offensive plays and certainly before the Ohio State game,

693
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 3: so that's something to watch here. My one concern for

694
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:27,600
Speaker 3: my chief concern I guess for the Duke side would

695
00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:30,600
Speaker 3: be their run defense. They do take away those explosive runs,

696
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 3: but one hundredth and rushing success rate, So I think

697
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:36,360
Speaker 3: this is probably an over game in the Odrick estimate

698
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:38,800
Speaker 3: in his prop market as far as the rushing arts go.

699
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 3: But like I said, Duke's offense can do enough where

700
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:43,160
Speaker 3: I think that they'll be able to return a little

701
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 3: bit of fire here. These teams don't play at super

702
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 3: high paces either, so I think this is one where

703
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:50,560
Speaker 3: I would lean towards Duke, but it's probably not going

704
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 3: to be a play for me.

705
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 1: All right, Let's go over to Michigan State at Iowa.

706
00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:57,480
Speaker 1: Iowa is a twelve and a half point home favorite,

707
00:33:57,480 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 1: but the line is only third. The total, excuse me,

708
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 1: is only thirty six and a half tickets of cash

709
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 1: on Iowa and the under.

710
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 2: What a shock?

711
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:09,439
Speaker 1: Iowa's in a game and people are betting on them

712
00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:12,399
Speaker 1: and the under in a game. What a surprise here?

713
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 1: Thor are you any different? Or is this just an

714
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 1: easy Iowa and the under as well?

715
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:20,640
Speaker 3: I don't know when you'll be able to better on

716
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 3: Michigan State, if it'll be this season, But you have

717
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 3: that thing of like you want to bet against Michigan State,

718
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:29,600
Speaker 3: but then you also have the opposing thing of Iowa

719
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 3: as a double digit favorite. So it's like, you know,

720
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 3: the the unstoppable force meets the you.

721
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:38,279
Speaker 1: Know, the stoppable force meets the movable object here, So

722
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:38,759
Speaker 1: here you go.

723
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, uncomb all sides of it. You're like, I definitely

724
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:44,799
Speaker 3: would not bet Michigan State. I do not see how

725
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 3: they generate offense against this awesome Iowa defense. But yeah,

726
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:52,279
Speaker 3: it becomes can Iowa score any points? Last week? I

727
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:55,080
Speaker 3: think against Fenn State Iowa, of course, they got shut out.

728
00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 3: I believe they had less than one hundred yards at

729
00:34:57,040 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 3: total offense. The funniest thing about that is I hit

730
00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 3: my biggest bet of the year, which was a prop

731
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:06,719
Speaker 3: bet on Eric All's over receiving yards. I hit that,

732
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 3: I believe on the second drive despite the fact that

733
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 3: Iowa generated very, very little yards. The rest of the game.

734
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:15,879
Speaker 2: Got it out of the way. You didn't have to sweat.

735
00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 3: It exactly what that was, and then I could turn

736
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:20,600
Speaker 3: the game off once once we got into with all

737
00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 3: the great games that are on Saturday, I don't want

738
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:25,239
Speaker 3: to watch that nonsense anymore. But yeah, you know, it

739
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:28,399
Speaker 3: just becomes about that. But one thing I would mention

740
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,239
Speaker 3: that is a little bit different. You know, at least

741
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:33,799
Speaker 3: one other factor to add into the Iowa handicaps in

742
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:36,879
Speaker 3: terms of these games where they should win the game

743
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 3: is in the past, the farances have been very classy

744
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 3: at the end of games. You know, they you know,

745
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:46,319
Speaker 3: not only during the game, are you know, is it

746
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:48,360
Speaker 3: more about the defense and the special teams and you

747
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 3: know they don't go bass to the wall with their offense. Yeah, yeah,

748
00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:53,880
Speaker 3: but also at the end of games. I've seen the

749
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 3: ferences in past years go out so far out of

750
00:35:57,200 --> 00:35:59,919
Speaker 3: their way to not try to punch something in late.

751
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:01,919
Speaker 3: You know, they're like the opposite of like a Lane

752
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 3: Kiffen or a James Franklin as far as like looking

753
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:05,719
Speaker 3: up at the spread and trying to cover it late.

754
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:08,360
Speaker 3: This year, we have already seen one game where that

755
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:11,959
Speaker 3: has been different, and I thought that was notable. When

756
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 3: Iowa could have kneeled the ball out against Western Michigan

757
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 3: and Brian Ferrence because of his contract stipulation they have

758
00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:20,080
Speaker 3: to average over twenty five points a game. That was

759
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 3: an opportunity where you could, and so he took it.

760
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 3: He decided to punch a ball a touchdown in late.

761
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 3: That would be the you know, one of those sort

762
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:30,520
Speaker 3: of small factors here where it's like, can Iowa cover

763
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 3: you know, eleven eleven and a half twelve points here

764
00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:35,279
Speaker 3: if this thing is late and i was up by

765
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:37,399
Speaker 3: ten and they have the ball on Michigan State side

766
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:39,439
Speaker 3: of the field. I think they're going to be trying

767
00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:41,120
Speaker 3: to score in those final couple of minutes as a

768
00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:42,520
Speaker 3: boss of just kneeling it out.

769
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:43,479
Speaker 2: Yeah they should.

770
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:45,920
Speaker 1: I mean, if it's part of your contract, and you know,

771
00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 1: Farrence has the excuse built it. Everybody knows about this

772
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 1: thing built into his contract, so they they should know

773
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 1: to expect him to try to score at the end.

774
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:56,960
Speaker 2: It shouldn't be a secret at all.

775
00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:01,400
Speaker 1: Number twelve, Alabama is a four teen point road favorite

776
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:02,400
Speaker 1: at Mississippi State.

777
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 2: Forty six is the total here?

778
00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:07,760
Speaker 1: Not enough tickets on the total yet to generate anything,

779
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:11,879
Speaker 1: but the cash and tickets are back on Bama after

780
00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:15,759
Speaker 1: they had a bad performance against South Florida and then

781
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 1: Beatle Miss. Now we're back on Bama at Mississippi State.

782
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:21,840
Speaker 2: How do you feel about this one?

783
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:25,000
Speaker 3: These are two of my least favorite teams in the nation.

784
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:29,279
Speaker 3: I will probably be staying off this one. My line

785
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 3: on it's Alabama minus fourteen and a half. Is that

786
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:33,520
Speaker 3: what you said it was live right now? Yeap? Or

787
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:35,560
Speaker 3: is it four okay? Yeah?

788
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:36,440
Speaker 2: Fourteen?

789
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:39,799
Speaker 3: I think fourteen? Okay? Yeah, I mean I guess you

790
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:42,840
Speaker 3: could argue there's you know, maybe even just a slight

791
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 3: amount of value on Alabama. But you know, you have

792
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:48,799
Speaker 3: the thing about they had the big win last week.

793
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 3: Now you have to go to Starkville. Starkfield is a

794
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:52,919
Speaker 3: tough place to play. It's just that I absolutely hate

795
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 3: this Mississippi State team. Alabama also has a slight bit overlook.

796
00:37:57,360 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 3: Next week they have to head to College Station, So

797
00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:01,399
Speaker 3: maybe you could, you know, if you want, you could

798
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 3: mitigate that half a point of line value that I'm

799
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:06,439
Speaker 3: showing on them. But like I said, Missippi State, there's

800
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:08,759
Speaker 3: just a hard team to trust. You have a whole

801
00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:12,880
Speaker 3: bunch of pieces that were recruited for a diametrically opposite

802
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:15,319
Speaker 3: skill on both sides of the ball. Then they're running now,

803
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:17,480
Speaker 3: you know, on offense it's the air raid to the

804
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 3: Appalachian State system whatnot. And they have badly struggled because

805
00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:23,239
Speaker 3: of that. Specifically on the offensive side of the ball.

806
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:25,600
Speaker 3: Will Rodgers, who last year was thrown for you know,

807
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 3: three hundred and fifty plus yards a game, whatever it was.

808
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:30,680
Speaker 3: This year, they can't get the passing game going whatsoever.

809
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:34,799
Speaker 3: And there Jacavius Marks the running back there, he's been

810
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:37,319
Speaker 3: decent and in fact, I would even say a little

811
00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 3: bit better than I thought in terms of that sort

812
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:41,520
Speaker 3: of straightforward running game, you know, moving him into that.

813
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:44,040
Speaker 3: But it's just a lot to ask him. The the

814
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:47,719
Speaker 3: enormous amount of offensive load that they're just putting on.

815
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:51,840
Speaker 3: Jkvis marks Alabama's defense pretty good number seven sp plus

816
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:56,000
Speaker 3: you're so close to the margins here. I'm going to

817
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:58,719
Speaker 3: be a bystander in this game. But if I had

818
00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:00,840
Speaker 3: to pick one, this probably be the only time this

819
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:02,479
Speaker 3: season I'll say it. But if I had to pick

820
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:05,399
Speaker 3: on one side, I would probably be on the Alabama side.

821
00:39:05,560 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 1: All right, Well, that is all the games that we

822
00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 1: plan to cover now tho, or of course at the

823
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:11,359
Speaker 1: end of the show, I will throw it to.

824
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 2: You any of the games.

825
00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 1: So you have a really good feeling about right now

826
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:16,800
Speaker 1: that you want to tell everybody about.

827
00:39:17,239 --> 00:39:19,680
Speaker 3: How about I give all one other game on Friday night.

828
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 3: We already gave all one with the Utah, We're gonna say,

829
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 3: and then maybe I'll give all one on Saturday, additional

830
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:27,920
Speaker 3: one the Friday Another Friday one I like is Louisville

831
00:39:28,080 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 3: laying the points against NC State. I got it a

832
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 3: two and a half. I don't know the live line

833
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:37,279
Speaker 3: we check if that has changed it all so I

834
00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 3: don't miss State. Well, now it's up to three and

835
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:41,799
Speaker 3: a half, but even at the three and a half,

836
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:44,359
Speaker 3: I think I would lay it with Louisville there. It's

837
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:46,040
Speaker 3: another one of those games where I just think that

838
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 3: they match up pretty well. The NC State team we

839
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:52,319
Speaker 3: had a little bit higher houl so we're hoping, you know,

840
00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:54,680
Speaker 3: it wasn't like an alright projection because he had so

841
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 3: many things changing, but that reuniting Brendan Armstrong the quarterback

842
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:01,440
Speaker 3: with Robert and I his former offensive coordinator. They had

843
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 3: done damage at Virginia and whatever was the year before.

844
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 1: Last year, Virginia looked good. I'm mad at them. Yeah, yeah,

845
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 1: they played on the Louisville side.

846
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:12,920
Speaker 3: It was supposed to be the revenge game for Brennan Armstrong.

847
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:15,200
Speaker 3: It turned into more of the revenge for Virginia.

848
00:40:15,320 --> 00:40:18,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, Virginia, and they looked good in the whole.

849
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:21,319
Speaker 3: Absolutely could have won that game. And then late the kid,

850
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 3: uh what's his the backup quarterback who's in now Calandria.

851
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 3: I was trying to remember his name, but just a

852
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:28,440
Speaker 3: young kid. And he makes a good play and his

853
00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:30,319
Speaker 3: helmet gets knocked off and then he stands up and

854
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:32,160
Speaker 3: he does like the the thing and they.

855
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:35,680
Speaker 1: Got believe they called that flag too. That was such

856
00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:38,839
Speaker 1: and like I was glad to happen because I had

857
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:40,760
Speaker 1: NC State, but they still didn't.

858
00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:41,919
Speaker 2: I was so mad.

859
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:45,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, making Anthony Calandria look like Peyton Manning out there.

860
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:49,920
Speaker 3: Just the the NC State offense. The problem with it is,

861
00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 3: you remember the last time when Armstrong was with a

862
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:57,040
Speaker 3: night when that offense was good. It made Brennan Armstrong

863
00:40:57,080 --> 00:41:00,760
Speaker 3: because statistically he was awesome that year, but his receiving

864
00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:04,600
Speaker 3: corps was awesome. Like they had multiple NFL receivers on

865
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:07,240
Speaker 3: there and different stuff like that. They had the NFL

866
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:10,680
Speaker 3: tight end on that offense as well. They could do

867
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 3: the quick hitting passing game. Even though unfortunately Brendan Armstrong

868
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:16,919
Speaker 3: is not a great thrower of the ball, he could

869
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 3: at least get the quick stuff out. And that Virginia team,

870
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:21,239
Speaker 3: all their receivers in the tight end, like I said,

871
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:24,759
Speaker 3: were very big, large guys like the tree kind of

872
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:27,440
Speaker 3: receivers whatnot. And they were athletics, so you could get

873
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:29,839
Speaker 3: them the ball short and even if the throw from

874
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 3: Armstrong was outside of their frame, they all had the

875
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:34,359
Speaker 3: big catch ratuses could go and get it. This NC

876
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:37,680
Speaker 3: State team, their receiving corp is not nearly, not nearly

877
00:41:37,880 --> 00:41:41,359
Speaker 3: as good as that Virginia's one was. And because of that,

878
00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:45,479
Speaker 3: you see more the limitations of Armstrong's game become way

879
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:49,239
Speaker 3: more pronounced because he can't be pinpoint as a throw.

880
00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:52,439
Speaker 3: He's just not. And he also lacks arm strength, right,

881
00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:54,959
Speaker 3: and so the NC State offense they don't have any

882
00:41:55,040 --> 00:41:58,560
Speaker 3: explosive element whatsoever. And then the passing game has all

883
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:00,160
Speaker 3: got to be the quick hitting stuff, but they don't

884
00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:03,120
Speaker 3: have the playmakers at receiver, so you have that stuff

885
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:05,240
Speaker 3: going on, and then NC State doesn't have any running

886
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 3: game whatsoever outside of Brennon Armstrong just running around and

887
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:11,920
Speaker 3: trying to manufacture yourself. He's there running back as well, basically,

888
00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:16,000
Speaker 3: But the problem is that you become pretty predictable, right, Like,

889
00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:18,239
Speaker 3: we're only going to throw these quick hitting things to

890
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:20,799
Speaker 3: mediocre receivers, and then you know, outside of that, we're

891
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:23,840
Speaker 3: going to try to generate efficiency with Armstrong running outside

892
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:27,160
Speaker 3: the pocket whatnot. Louisville's defense, first of all, projects to

893
00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:31,479
Speaker 3: deal with that pretty well. The Louisville defense is number

894
00:42:31,520 --> 00:42:35,640
Speaker 3: thirty eight SPPLUS overall. Right, Now, that defense has been

895
00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:39,239
Speaker 3: really good at every facet of the game except for one.

896
00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:42,400
Speaker 3: They give up way too many explosive passes. That is

897
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:44,960
Speaker 3: not gonna be a problem. It gets Brennan Armstrong, They're

898
00:42:44,520 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 3: not They don't generate explosive passes. So even though you

899
00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:49,600
Speaker 3: can get Louisville with that, NC State is not gonna

900
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:51,799
Speaker 3: be able to do that. And then I really like

901
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:54,160
Speaker 3: the Louisville offense. Some of the games that have been

902
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:56,720
Speaker 3: the more high profile that you know, they're where Louisville

903
00:42:56,800 --> 00:42:59,160
Speaker 3: has been on by themselves. There's been times where it's

904
00:42:59,200 --> 00:43:01,239
Speaker 3: been a little bit slow to get going, but you

905
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:03,439
Speaker 3: look at like the aggregate stats of it. Their top

906
00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:07,120
Speaker 3: twenty five run success rate, number top twenty five rushing explosion,

907
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 3: top twenty five pass success rate, top twenty five passing explosion.

908
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:13,520
Speaker 3: They can do all that sort of stuff. The run

909
00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:16,319
Speaker 3: game in particular has been nasty number five success rate,

910
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:20,000
Speaker 3: number twenty explod explosion. And you have to respect their

911
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:22,759
Speaker 3: deep passing game because Plumber can get it over the top.

912
00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:24,839
Speaker 3: And they have weapons out there, you know, starting with

913
00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:28,040
Speaker 3: Thrash Coleman. They have guys that can get downfield and

914
00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 3: make those plays. NC State's defense only forty fifth sp

915
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:35,320
Speaker 3: plus and that defense particularly has a weakness for allowing

916
00:43:35,360 --> 00:43:38,400
Speaker 3: explosive plays. We'll pack our one hundred and ninth isopp

917
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:41,719
Speaker 3: on defense, the explosive play metric, and one hundred and

918
00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:44,839
Speaker 3: eighteenth of marginal explosiveness. Louisville is going to be able

919
00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:47,319
Speaker 3: to rip off those explosive plays all game long. NC

920
00:43:47,480 --> 00:43:51,080
Speaker 3: State categorically cannot do that. I really like Louisville in

921
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 3: that game that's a Friday Night or that I was

922
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:54,040
Speaker 3: talking about.

923
00:43:53,840 --> 00:43:57,919
Speaker 1: And everyone who's wondering who those big targets were for.

924
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:00,880
Speaker 1: But an Armstrong. If you're watching games, you don't know

925
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:04,560
Speaker 1: who Dontavian Wicks is. Mister ware catches twelve hundred and

926
00:44:04,560 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 1: three yards nine scores that year.

927
00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:09,840
Speaker 2: So that's where he comes from from. Virginia.

928
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 1: Good thing, yeah with Armstrong when they were teammates, But

929
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:14,640
Speaker 1: no Wicks.

930
00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:16,600
Speaker 2: They're in NC State.

931
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:19,759
Speaker 3: No, no, yeah, no Wicks, and yeah, they just don't

932
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:23,280
Speaker 3: have the weapons out there. A Saturday game for you guys,

933
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:27,720
Speaker 3: I'm going with Cincinnati at BYU. You know, I watched

934
00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:30,080
Speaker 3: a good bet of course at the BYU game last

935
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:32,879
Speaker 3: week because they were playing rock Chock b Yu. They're

936
00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:35,920
Speaker 3: they're they're interesting in that on defense they can get

937
00:44:35,920 --> 00:44:39,560
Speaker 3: after the quarterback a bit, and on offense the one

938
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:42,200
Speaker 3: thing they can do is throw it down field a

939
00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:45,600
Speaker 3: little bit, but only when they're able to block the

940
00:44:45,640 --> 00:44:48,480
Speaker 3: team in front of them. By first of all, as

941
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:51,799
Speaker 3: you know, Bodman Slovas is lead footed. He doesn't move

942
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:56,040
Speaker 3: around well anyway, and so he's not leaving the pocket.

943
00:44:56,080 --> 00:44:58,239
Speaker 3: I think they're one hundred and thirty first and scrambles

944
00:44:58,239 --> 00:45:01,160
Speaker 3: per drop back by us, but they've been allowing a

945
00:45:01,280 --> 00:45:04,120
Speaker 3: ton of pressures and a lot of sacks as well.

946
00:45:04,760 --> 00:45:08,120
Speaker 3: That's where this becomes I think a good matchup for Cincinnati.

947
00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:13,320
Speaker 3: So BYU is one hundred and twentieth in havoc rate allowed,

948
00:45:13,480 --> 00:45:18,400
Speaker 3: not good obviously, Cincinnati's defense thirty third sp plus overall,

949
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:21,800
Speaker 3: but twenty fourth in havoc rate, twenty fourth in sacks

950
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:25,600
Speaker 3: per dropback. That's good in this matchup against Slovas, and

951
00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:29,359
Speaker 3: Cincinnati's defense is number seven in pass down sack rate.

952
00:45:29,800 --> 00:45:32,279
Speaker 3: So when BYU gets into those third and long kind

953
00:45:32,320 --> 00:45:34,680
Speaker 3: of scenarios, Keaton Slovas is going to be a bit

954
00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:37,120
Speaker 3: of a sitting duck back there, and they're going to

955
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:39,840
Speaker 3: get into those because unfortunately for the BYU offense, they

956
00:45:39,920 --> 00:45:42,359
Speaker 3: can't really run the ball. I don't really know what

957
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:44,960
Speaker 3: BYU is doing in terms of their running game, if

958
00:45:44,960 --> 00:45:48,480
Speaker 3: I'm being honest. I liked when they signed the UNLV

959
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:51,480
Speaker 3: running back Aiden Baskin Robbins. When they brought him over,

960
00:45:51,840 --> 00:45:55,200
Speaker 3: he had a top ten broken tackle per rushing attempt

961
00:45:55,520 --> 00:45:58,520
Speaker 3: percentage last year. And so then he goes to BYU.

962
00:45:58,560 --> 00:46:02,200
Speaker 3: You're expecting him to take They have barely looked his way.

963
00:46:02,560 --> 00:46:05,000
Speaker 3: The kid that they're using in there, he's been okay,

964
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:07,359
Speaker 3: but like in terms of the efficiency numbers, in terms

965
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:10,799
Speaker 3: of the per carry type stuff, it's way down there.

966
00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:13,400
Speaker 3: And that puts all the more pressure on Keeton Slovas

967
00:46:13,440 --> 00:46:15,600
Speaker 3: and it makes them all the more predictable. And when

968
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:17,680
Speaker 3: you're facing a team that has a good pass rush

969
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:21,120
Speaker 3: going up against a mediocre BYU offensive line, those are

970
00:46:21,160 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 3: the games where BYU it's not an advantageous matchup for them.

971
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:27,880
Speaker 3: I don't love Cincinnati's offense, I will say that, but

972
00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:31,239
Speaker 3: they can address that BYU pass rush enough I think

973
00:46:31,280 --> 00:46:34,160
Speaker 3: to be able to carve out offense, to carve out

974
00:46:34,200 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 3: the yards and then get move the sticks and get

975
00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:40,000
Speaker 3: closer to those scoring opportunities whatnot. I like Cincinnati getting

976
00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:42,320
Speaker 3: the three points or so in this game.

977
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:44,520
Speaker 2: All right, Well, that will wrap it up for us

978
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:46,600
Speaker 2: this week. In ju your week five.

979
00:46:46,920 --> 00:46:49,560
Speaker 1: Remember you can follow us on the Twitter at thor

980
00:46:49,719 --> 00:46:53,040
Speaker 1: Ku for Thor at Bogman Sports for myself. Have a

981
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:55,200
Speaker 1: great weekend everybody, and we will see you next week.

982
00:46:55,320 --> 00:46:58,480
Speaker 2: Take it easy. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.

983
00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:01,360
Speaker 1: Follow us on x Anti talk at Betting Pros and

984
00:47:01,480 --> 00:47:03,280
Speaker 1: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL.

985
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:04,640
Speaker 2: Also subscribe to

986
00:47:04,640 --> 00:47:07,640
Speaker 1: Our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros