1 00:00:12,240 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Welcome back to special coverage show of the New Hampshire 2 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:18,120 Speaker 1: Republican primary on Bloomberg TV and Radio. The race has 3 00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:20,639 Speaker 1: been called Donald Trump as one. 4 00:00:20,560 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 2: And just moments ago we heard from the runner up, 5 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:25,919 Speaker 2: Nikki Haley, conceding here in the Granite State. 6 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:30,479 Speaker 1: I want to congratulate Donald Trump on his victory tonight. 7 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:33,519 Speaker 3: He earned it and I want to acknowledge that. 8 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 1: And back with this now, our political panel, Rick Davis, 9 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:39,239 Speaker 1: partner at Stone Court Capital, is here alongside Genie Shanzano, 10 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:42,640 Speaker 1: political science professor at Iona University. Rick, what are we 11 00:00:42,680 --> 00:00:44,120 Speaker 1: looking at the rest of the night here, because we 12 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 1: do still have some questions to answer, as we said earlier, 13 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:49,559 Speaker 1: particularly when it comes to margin. We're just past what 14 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:51,199 Speaker 1: a third of the way here, Kaylee. As we look 15 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 1: at the numbers of precincts reporting, there's a lot of 16 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 1: votes still to come in. 17 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean every indication is it may actually exceed 18 00:00:57,240 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 4: the Secretary of Stage prediction of three hundred and twenty 19 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:04,360 Speaker 4: two thousand and voters. So healthy and robust day at 20 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 4: the polls for New Hampshire voters. 21 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:06,560 Speaker 5: Well done. 22 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 4: This is what we come to New Hampshire to do 23 00:01:09,319 --> 00:01:12,160 Speaker 4: is see a real democracy in action, and I think 24 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 4: that you're going to see more and more votes coming 25 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 4: from the rural areas. Right now, it's inside a ten 26 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 4: point range between Donald Trump and Nicky Haley, and I 27 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:21,959 Speaker 4: think all you're going to do is see more and 28 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 4: more margin coming in from for Donald Trump voters. You know, 29 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:30,560 Speaker 4: these are his strongholds, rural voters. And one of the 30 00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:33,040 Speaker 4: things we're seeing, which is a very stark contrast, which 31 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 4: we've seen in Iowa, we've seen in the polling nationally, 32 00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 4: is Donald Trump is doing exceptionally well with voters who 33 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 4: don't have a college education. But Nicky Haley has really 34 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:47,040 Speaker 4: racked up margins with voters who do have a college education. Dartmouth, 35 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 4: that area around Hanover, she was leading Donald Trump eighty 36 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 4: percent in a college down like that where it's very 37 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 4: high education levels. That being said, there are more voters 38 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:01,200 Speaker 4: who don't have college education New Hampshire then otherwise. 39 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:04,400 Speaker 2: So on margins right now, thirty two percent of the 40 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 2: vote count and according to the Associated Press, Trump fifty 41 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 2: three point nine, Hailey forty five point one. So we're 42 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 2: just under a nine point spread at this point. I 43 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:16,000 Speaker 2: feel like we should remind Genie our global audience that's 44 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 2: watching that this is the second in a row that 45 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 2: Trump has won. There's only been two contests he has won, 46 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:25,679 Speaker 2: both in Iowa. Though historically the person who wins does 47 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 2: not end up the nominee. It's been that way in 48 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:30,920 Speaker 2: the last several competitive contests Ted Cruz, for example, one 49 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:33,839 Speaker 2: at in twenty sixteen, when Trump was the eventual nominee. 50 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 2: That's not necessarily the case with New Hampshire. But is 51 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 2: this going to be the year that Iowa and New 52 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:43,360 Speaker 2: Hampshire both picked the presidents? It wasn't just Iowa picking 53 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:44,119 Speaker 2: corn this time? 54 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:47,080 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean that could be. It seems like that's 55 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 6: what we are looking at. And you know, this is 56 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:52,520 Speaker 6: once again I have to say Donald Trump breaking these 57 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 6: established molds. I think he has changed this Republican Party. 58 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:00,360 Speaker 6: And let's you know, not forget he has changed the 59 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 6: primary process as well. Here, if we sit in New Hampshire, 60 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:08,520 Speaker 6: you and Nikky Haley crossing this state end to end, 61 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 6: back and forth campaign events and rallies and all these 62 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 6: kinds of things. He was dropping in for one event 63 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:18,919 Speaker 6: a day in between court cases for his ninety one 64 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:23,640 Speaker 6: felony indictments. And yet he has led this thing and 65 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:25,680 Speaker 6: so I think it's incumbent on all of us to 66 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:29,080 Speaker 6: try to understand what it is that voters on the 67 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:34,320 Speaker 6: Republican side are seeing in Donald Trump that they find attractive. 68 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:37,280 Speaker 6: And I have to say give him credit. He ran 69 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 6: a really smart campaign here. The two issues he focused 70 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 6: on immigration security broadly, but immigration social security medicare, which 71 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:49,040 Speaker 6: we keep saying Joe Matthew was in his commercial on 72 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 6: that and those two things he tried to move voters, 73 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 6: and it seems like they were effective. And it's something 74 00:03:57,200 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 6: to keep in mind. We talk a lot about Donald 75 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:02,760 Speaker 6: Trump saying things out of turn, talking about people calling 76 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:05,600 Speaker 6: them names. He was issue focused, at least on the air. 77 00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 1: Here for a TV audience, we're seeing a live view 78 00:04:09,160 --> 00:04:12,839 Speaker 1: of votes being counted right now in New Hampshire, with 79 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 1: quite a few to go here. Rick the psychology behind 80 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 1: Nikki Haley's decision here. Knowing that she is trailing Donald 81 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:26,800 Speaker 1: Trump badly in her home state as she moves closer 82 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:29,040 Speaker 1: to South Carolina, could she be more likely to drop 83 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:31,800 Speaker 1: out to avoid embarrassment there or is she committed to 84 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 1: that contest? 85 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:34,280 Speaker 5: You know, look, this is a gut check, right. 86 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:39,279 Speaker 4: She's been under attack by Donald Trump pretty significantly since 87 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:43,040 Speaker 4: the Iowa Caucus. She's withstood that pretty well. She did 88 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:45,360 Speaker 4: fall into a bit of a routine here of responding 89 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:47,479 Speaker 4: to all the attacks, which is exactly what you don't 90 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:50,360 Speaker 4: want to do when you're taking in that kind of assault. 91 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:53,000 Speaker 4: And the question she's going to have the gut check 92 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 4: is do I want to go through four weeks of 93 00:04:56,839 --> 00:05:01,120 Speaker 4: just intense barrage of attacks by the MAGA machine in 94 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:05,280 Speaker 4: South Carolina, a significant force of politics that can really 95 00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:08,320 Speaker 4: hurt her image long term if she's not careful. 96 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:11,919 Speaker 5: And that's going to be really the core question. 97 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 4: I don't think South Carolina is going to be determined 98 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:18,040 Speaker 4: by money. She'll have plenty of money to fuel South 99 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:21,279 Speaker 4: Carolina came for campaign for four weeks. The question is 100 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 4: is she going to want to. 101 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:25,240 Speaker 2: Well, you talk about the attacks that she could be 102 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 2: on the receiving end of. There also is the question 103 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:30,320 Speaker 2: of the attacks she could be dealing out. We saw 104 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:33,039 Speaker 2: in the very final days leading up to hear in 105 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:35,359 Speaker 2: New Hampshire sharpening of the knife, if you will, going 106 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 2: after Trump for things as we heard her speaking this evening, 107 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 2: things like senior moments when he confused her apparently with 108 00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 2: Nancy Pelosi, thinking she may have been at the Capitol 109 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 2: on January sixth when he was speaking a few days ago, 110 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 2: she's called him chaotic. If she's going to do this 111 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:52,800 Speaker 2: over the course of the next four weeks, how much 112 00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 2: harder realistically should she go and will she? 113 00:05:57,120 --> 00:05:59,279 Speaker 4: I know a lot of her advisors have been wanting 114 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:01,800 Speaker 4: to ramp up the attacks, just like you were talking about, 115 00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:05,520 Speaker 4: not just on metal, competency and age. You know, that's 116 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 4: been sort of the core, and that at the end 117 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:09,000 Speaker 4: of the day, she still says, yeah, but he's fit 118 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:11,719 Speaker 4: to be president, right at some point, I think you 119 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:14,280 Speaker 4: have to draw a brighter and stronger contrast. You have 120 00:06:14,360 --> 00:06:17,320 Speaker 4: to say, you know, he and the electability issue has 121 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:19,160 Speaker 4: been one that I think she's starting to play even 122 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:23,279 Speaker 4: harder tonight. She said he can't beat Biden, and she's 123 00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 4: the only one who can. In fact, she said any 124 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:29,120 Speaker 4: other Republican could. But that means her. So I think 125 00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:32,039 Speaker 4: that she's going to have to come out much more aggressively. 126 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:36,320 Speaker 4: There's no way a massive negative campaign against you is 127 00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:38,920 Speaker 4: going to be successful for you unless you are able 128 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:42,800 Speaker 4: to mount a significant and very well scripted, targeted campaign 129 00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 4: against your opponent. And she didn't do it, and DeSantis 130 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:49,679 Speaker 4: didn't do it. And the only one who really tried 131 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 4: that was Christy, But he didn't attack Donald Trump on 132 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:55,239 Speaker 4: the issues. He attracked Donald Trump on his personality. She's 133 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:58,880 Speaker 4: got a hone an issues attack and proved to voters 134 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 4: in South Carolina that his form of government is not 135 00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:04,479 Speaker 4: conservative and not good for the country. 136 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:07,719 Speaker 1: Well, Genie, the Biden campaign is already mobilizing here like 137 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:11,040 Speaker 1: it's over the statement from Joe Biden's campaign. 138 00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:11,880 Speaker 5: One thing is clear. 139 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 1: Donald Trump is headed straight into a general election matchup 140 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 1: where he will face the only person who have ever 141 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:18,880 Speaker 1: beaten him at the ballot box, Joe Biden. 142 00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 5: Is it right? Is this general election underway? 143 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 6: You know? And this is one of the things we 144 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 6: heard Nikki Haley say tonight that Republicans should be concerned 145 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:29,800 Speaker 6: that Democrats want to run against Donald Trump. And that 146 00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 6: is something we've known because the Biden the Biden team 147 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 6: has said that, you know, and I think we're hard 148 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 6: pressed to imagine that anybody besides Donald Trump, barring something 149 00:07:40,400 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 6: we unexpected, is going to get this nomination. And you know, 150 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:47,720 Speaker 6: to put a finer point on it, let's just remember 151 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 6: evangelicals in South Carolina, her home state, three out of 152 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 6: four voters identify as evangelicals, only one out of four 153 00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 6: in New Hampshire. This is why this was the state 154 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:02,400 Speaker 6: for her to beat him. That said, she also tonight 155 00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 6: said I'm going to challenge him to a debate. Why 156 00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 6: is he scared to debate me? So if she stays 157 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 6: in this thing, she's going to be taunting him about 158 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 6: a debate. But if you're Donald Trump, can I have 159 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:15,880 Speaker 6: what incentive do you have to debate she's and who 160 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 6: is she to ask? She's lost two now, so it's 161 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:21,400 Speaker 6: you know, if she stays in, I expect we'll hear that. 162 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 6: But gosh, it's hard to imagine a way forward now. 163 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:27,760 Speaker 6: She really needed all New Hampshire delegates to pull this 164 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:30,480 Speaker 6: thing through to the end successfully well. 165 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:33,360 Speaker 2: And debates typically feature two things, one of them being 166 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:36,120 Speaker 2: attacks against the person you're debating, the other being actual 167 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 2: in theory if it's working, substantive policy conversation. And earlier 168 00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:43,320 Speaker 2: a few days ago, over the weekend, we talked to 169 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:47,200 Speaker 2: Governor Christan Nunu, of course endorsed Haley, actively campaigned for 170 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 2: her here in New Hampshire. Didn't result in a win 171 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:53,880 Speaker 2: for her obviously, and I asked him, is the differentiator 172 00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:58,120 Speaker 2: between Haley and Trump actually policy or you're what you 173 00:08:58,160 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 2: think is the ability to execute on that, Paul, And 174 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 2: he's said his execution not actually policy. Is that an 175 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:06,600 Speaker 2: issue here? You just aren't convincing voters that you would 176 00:09:06,679 --> 00:09:10,320 Speaker 2: actually be that much different, that you have different ideas 177 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:11,320 Speaker 2: that you're talking about. 178 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:14,840 Speaker 6: You know, I think it's a mistake because you know, 179 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:18,120 Speaker 6: let's face it, voters look back at four years of 180 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:22,400 Speaker 6: Trump on the Republican side and they see successes there, 181 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 6: you know, so I think it's very hard to convince 182 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 6: them that the execution wasn't there. But there are policy differentials, 183 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 6: and she started talking about them, and then she dropped 184 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:36,319 Speaker 6: back a bit, and I think that that has been 185 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:40,280 Speaker 6: a problem. You know, there are many many Republicans who 186 00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:44,640 Speaker 6: you look at the amount of spending under the Trump administration, 187 00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:48,080 Speaker 6: who find that objectionable. But she had to hit him hard, 188 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 6: as did Ron DeSantis. Not having done that already, I'm 189 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:55,400 Speaker 6: not convinced she can make that case now as she 190 00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 6: moves into these much more difficult states. 191 00:09:57,840 --> 00:09:59,960 Speaker 1: So how does she have to place in South Carolina 192 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 1: as we wait to have a better understanding of this 193 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 1: strong second or maybe not so strong. 194 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:09,400 Speaker 5: Does she have to win her home state? Is it 195 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:10,320 Speaker 5: as simple as that. 196 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:13,200 Speaker 4: Well, you can't win a nomination by coming in second, 197 00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 4: and that's really what it's something doing. And the political 198 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 4: graveyards are stacked full of candidates who thought they could 199 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 4: win by coming in second and they never did. I mean, 200 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:27,240 Speaker 4: this will be the first time that a candidate could 201 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:31,720 Speaker 4: have actually won the first three primaries and caucuses. 202 00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:35,319 Speaker 5: And then you know, we've never turned. 203 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 4: Back a nominee from that ever. And so as Genie 204 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:41,960 Speaker 4: likes to say, Donald Trump likes to break the mold, 205 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 4: and she would have to really break a big mold 206 00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:48,360 Speaker 4: to be successful this way. That being said, you know 207 00:10:48,400 --> 00:10:50,320 Speaker 4: a lot of people are talking about this notion of 208 00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 4: hanging around the hoop long enough, keep racking up delegates 209 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:56,000 Speaker 4: and stay in the race and keep raising money and 210 00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:59,200 Speaker 4: being the flying the ointment for Donald Trump, at which point, 211 00:10:59,280 --> 00:11:02,679 Speaker 4: maybe he does get convicted of one of these crimes, 212 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:08,080 Speaker 4: maybe he has enough of these mental moments to convince 213 00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 4: even his own voters that he doesn't have a path 214 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:13,480 Speaker 4: to go forward to beat Joe Biden. And then she's 215 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:16,120 Speaker 4: there with the electability argument, and it sounds pretty good 216 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:17,200 Speaker 4: at that point, yeah, I. 217 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 2: Guess none of us can know for sure what's going 218 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 2: to happen over the course of the five months between 219 00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:24,600 Speaker 2: now and when the Republican Convention actually takes place in July. 220 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:26,439 Speaker 2: And of course Rick and Jennie will be here to 221 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:28,920 Speaker 2: walk us through the next several months, just like they 222 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:31,160 Speaker 2: are sticking with us for the remainder of this hour. 223 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:33,400 Speaker 2: Rick and Jennie will be back with us. But coming up, 224 00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 2: we're going to turn to foreign policy, something that Nikki 225 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:40,400 Speaker 2: Haley also has staked her candidacy on is her reputation 226 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:43,640 Speaker 2: in that arena. Will be joined by Elena Lyon of 227 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 2: the University of New Hampshire. Coming up next, this is 228 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:49,720 Speaker 2: special coverage of the New Hampshire primary on Bloomberg Television 229 00:11:50,080 --> 00:12:07,079 Speaker 2: and Radio. 230 00:12:07,640 --> 00:12:09,079 Speaker 5: He doesn't believe in limited government. 231 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:10,720 Speaker 7: He believes in this kind of dictatorship. 232 00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:12,040 Speaker 5: He doesn't believe in local control. 233 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:13,040 Speaker 7: He believes in Washington. 234 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:14,839 Speaker 5: So those are not Republican values. 235 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:17,440 Speaker 2: But you have said because he if he were to 236 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:20,000 Speaker 2: be the Republican nominee, because you are a Republican, you 237 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:20,920 Speaker 2: would support. 238 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 5: That most people. 239 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:22,679 Speaker 7: That shouldn't surprise anybody. 240 00:12:23,280 --> 00:12:26,559 Speaker 2: Even though he don't think he actually carries the values. 241 00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:29,040 Speaker 3: Of the Republican Look Joe Biden. That's how bad Joe 242 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:29,439 Speaker 3: Biden is. 243 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:35,600 Speaker 2: That was part of our conversation with New Hampshire Governor 244 00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:39,960 Speaker 2: Christian Nunu earlier this week in Manchester, as he was 245 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 2: a surrogate for Nikki Haley, endorsed her campaigns heavily for 246 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:45,800 Speaker 2: her here in this Granite state, and yet that was 247 00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:47,959 Speaker 2: not enough to actually lead to a victory for her 248 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:50,840 Speaker 2: here in New Hampshire. The race was called just over 249 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:53,480 Speaker 2: an hour ago for Donald Trump. Right now, thirty four 250 00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:56,880 Speaker 2: percent of votes are counted, he has fifty three point 251 00:12:56,920 --> 00:13:01,680 Speaker 2: four percent to Nikki Haley's forty five six percent. The 252 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:05,720 Speaker 2: question is the trajectory of Haley's candidacy going forward, and 253 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 2: also how much this will become more about the issues 254 00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 2: at play here. We want to talk about foreign policy 255 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:12,760 Speaker 2: issues in particular. 256 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:14,560 Speaker 3: Now let's go to Ellina Lyon. 257 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:17,319 Speaker 2: She's political science professor at the University of New Hampshire 258 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:20,480 Speaker 2: and author of US Politics and the United Nation. 259 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 3: She is joining us. 260 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:24,360 Speaker 2: Here live in our Manchester studios as we simulcast to 261 00:13:24,400 --> 00:13:27,800 Speaker 2: you globally on both Bloomberg Television and radio. Professor Lyon, 262 00:13:27,880 --> 00:13:30,559 Speaker 2: thank you so much for joining US this evening. We 263 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 2: were just having a conversation with our colleagues Ric and 264 00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 2: Genie about issues domestically the border, social security, and medicare. 265 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:39,319 Speaker 3: At the retirement age. 266 00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:42,360 Speaker 2: Nikki Haley is the former ambassador of the United Nations, 267 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 2: and at a time where you have a conflict in 268 00:13:44,559 --> 00:13:48,080 Speaker 2: the Middle East, you have a conflict ongoing in Ukraine, 269 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 2: she has really tried to flex that at least to 270 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:54,360 Speaker 2: this point. Is it resonating with voters or do these 271 00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 2: issues just come too far below some of the other 272 00:13:56,800 --> 00:14:00,599 Speaker 2: domestic problems that it's not enough to propel a candidacy 273 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:01,600 Speaker 2: like hers forward. 274 00:14:02,280 --> 00:14:03,720 Speaker 7: Yeah, such a great question. 275 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 8: So there's actually a recent a people out looking at 276 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 8: exactly this and asked voters what are your top five issues? 277 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:13,480 Speaker 8: And foreign policy made the top five, not the top 278 00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 8: but the top five for I think it was forty 279 00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 8: six percent of Republicans, who was actually doubled that from 280 00:14:17,920 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 8: prior and it's a little lower, like thirty seven percent 281 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 8: or so for Democrats. So yes, I think that foreign 282 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 8: policy is incredibly important. Maybe not the kitchen table issues 283 00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:30,280 Speaker 8: that people tend to think of, but the news is 284 00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 8: full of a lot of instability in the Middle East, 285 00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 8: and you know, every time you open up your phone 286 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:37,200 Speaker 8: there's something about the Middle East. It whether it's it 287 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:41,800 Speaker 8: On or Israel or the Huthis or the situation in Ukraine. 288 00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:44,440 Speaker 8: So I think people are paying attention and it seems 289 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 8: so volatile, they're nervous. 290 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 1: We have a global audience tonight. As Kayleie mentioned, what 291 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:52,120 Speaker 1: extent is the world watching this? Primary Joe Biden always 292 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 1: tells the story about his first G seven when he 293 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 1: said America is back and the reply was for how long? 294 00:14:58,360 --> 00:14:58,560 Speaker 8: Yeah? 295 00:14:58,560 --> 00:14:59,680 Speaker 7: I think that's exactly right. 296 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:01,840 Speaker 8: The rest of the world, whether or not it's v 297 00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 8: Putin or the Europeans or the Canadian Prime minister, everyone 298 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:10,200 Speaker 8: is watching, and the United States is relevant to We 299 00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:12,840 Speaker 8: have boots on the ground or military presence in over 300 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 8: one hundred and twenty five countries. 301 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:18,400 Speaker 7: We are a leader of what we call the international order. 302 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:21,760 Speaker 8: Right We were the architects of the United Nations, of NATO, 303 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:25,040 Speaker 8: of the IMF, of the World Bank, of the G seven. 304 00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 8: The United States has led for over seventy years and 305 00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 8: provided guidance to deal with many of these issues, and 306 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 8: there's a lot of concern. During the Trump administration, there 307 00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 8: was a concerted pullback right. Trump was America first, not 308 00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:42,960 Speaker 8: about dealing with global stability, and so there's a lot 309 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:46,000 Speaker 8: of people looking at the volatile issues around the world saying, 310 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:48,440 Speaker 8: is there someone that's going to come help us think 311 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 8: this through and work these problems. 312 00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:51,720 Speaker 2: Well, and you certainly got a taste of that at 313 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 2: the World Economic Forum. 314 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:55,200 Speaker 3: In Davos last week were world. 315 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:58,200 Speaker 2: Leaders, specifically European ones, even a Central Bankery CB president 316 00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:00,440 Speaker 2: Christine la guard were talking about how they've the risk 317 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 2: of another Trump presidency, how Europe has has to think 318 00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 2: about that. You say that this is an issue that 319 00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:11,560 Speaker 2: is resonating with voters, that they care about foreign policy issues, 320 00:16:11,560 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 2: and the fact of the matter remains that, at least 321 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:15,880 Speaker 2: judging by the tally right now and looking back at Iowa, 322 00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:20,800 Speaker 2: more than fifty percent of Republican voters support the former 323 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:23,840 Speaker 2: president who did have an isolationist bent, who did threaten 324 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:27,440 Speaker 2: potentially to leave NATO. Does that show that actually it's 325 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:31,040 Speaker 2: not just about him, but the American electorate is becoming 326 00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 2: more isolationist. 327 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:33,360 Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, and it's funny. 328 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:36,120 Speaker 8: Isolationism is a term that academics actually fight over. Are 329 00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:38,560 Speaker 8: we isolationists? Do we really want to? And I think 330 00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:41,400 Speaker 8: that many aren't quite sure one what isolation is and means, 331 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 8: and whether or not it's even possible. Right, when we 332 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 8: think about isolationism, we think about the early nineteen hundreds, 333 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:49,240 Speaker 8: right when you could actually close borders and you didn't 334 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 8: have planes coming in. I mean, the our economy, the 335 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:55,760 Speaker 8: United States economy relies on our interactions with the world. 336 00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:59,000 Speaker 8: Our health, as we learn from COVID, relies on our 337 00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:02,320 Speaker 8: interactions with the world, world, our climate health, if you will, 338 00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 8: you know, if we're talking about climate change, United States. 339 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:07,160 Speaker 7: Can't do it alone. There's absolutely no so there. 340 00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:10,000 Speaker 8: I think that the notion of isolationism is a really 341 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:12,240 Speaker 8: old old one, and I think that there's a lot 342 00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:14,360 Speaker 8: of fear in the electorate, like we don't know what's 343 00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:17,159 Speaker 8: going on out there, and the instinct is kind of 344 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:20,840 Speaker 8: retract right, and especially you know, there's war fatigue. The 345 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:26,119 Speaker 8: fatigue of Afghanistan and Iraq was real. Electorate really felt 346 00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:27,720 Speaker 8: that we wrote a lot of checks and didn't get 347 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:30,560 Speaker 8: a lot back. But in terms of being isolationists, I 348 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 8: don't even know if it's possible. 349 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:32,879 Speaker 7: It's great rhetoric. 350 00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 1: We're showing live pictures to our TV audience of an 351 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 1: empty podium waiting for Donald Trump, and we'll have remarks 352 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:42,560 Speaker 1: from him when he does emerge here. Having had this 353 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 1: race called very early on for Donald Trump here, the 354 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 1: Associated Press waited one minute until after the polls closed 355 00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:52,440 Speaker 1: to get this done. We had news today, Cayley, of 356 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:56,320 Speaker 1: an eighth strike and Athos strike against toothy rebels in Yemen. 357 00:17:56,400 --> 00:18:01,240 Speaker 1: You mentioned this steady drip of frankly skill headlines that 358 00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:04,959 Speaker 1: people are hearing and reading about in the news. To 359 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:08,119 Speaker 1: what extent will Joe Biden be judged as having a 360 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:11,280 Speaker 1: steady hand on the tailer versus what some people see 361 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:12,680 Speaker 1: as international chaos. 362 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:14,800 Speaker 7: Yeah, no, I think that's exactly right. 363 00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 8: I think that you know, we're in the middle of 364 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:20,920 Speaker 8: a storm, a squall if you were using New Hampshire 365 00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:23,879 Speaker 8: terms here at the global level, particularly in the release. 366 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 8: There are seven to eight particular conflicts going on within 367 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:29,720 Speaker 8: the release. I mean, I'm trying to count them and 368 00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:31,800 Speaker 8: map them out and explain them to my students. 369 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 7: It is. 370 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:34,840 Speaker 8: It is very complicated, and you know they've got these 371 00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:37,439 Speaker 8: little fires. It is a tinder box. If you have 372 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:43,159 Speaker 8: volatility in Washington, d C. A tweet or something to 373 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:46,119 Speaker 8: that particular effect could be you know, I had former 374 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:48,240 Speaker 8: students who worked at the State Department, and they said, 375 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:50,200 Speaker 8: you know, they'd wake up in the morning, they would 376 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:52,639 Speaker 8: have their marching orders, they would be preparing to do this, 377 00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:54,919 Speaker 8: to work with this particular country and buship forward, and 378 00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:57,080 Speaker 8: then all of a sudden, the tweet would change everything. 379 00:18:57,119 --> 00:18:59,160 Speaker 7: And so that level of volatility is very concerning. 380 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:02,080 Speaker 2: Yea, And we certainly have seen the former president, though 381 00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 2: he's no longer on Twitter, posting on x this evening 382 00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:07,120 Speaker 2: after his victory here in New Hampshire saying Nikki Haley 383 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 2: is delusional that she gotten third in Iowa. As she 384 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:14,360 Speaker 2: was at her victory party talking about how she did 385 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:16,600 Speaker 2: concede this race but was going to move forward to 386 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:18,840 Speaker 2: her home state of South Carolina. She said New Hampshire 387 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:20,720 Speaker 2: was the first in the nation, it is not the 388 00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:24,200 Speaker 2: last in the nation. She's going to carry this forward. 389 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:27,400 Speaker 2: And we are seeing pictures now for our TV audience 390 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 2: of Donald Trump his party this evening as well. We 391 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:32,720 Speaker 2: expect Joe that we'll hear from him very shortly. 392 00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:34,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, he's got the whole family with him, or at 393 00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:38,560 Speaker 1: least a number of family on the stage with a 394 00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:41,240 Speaker 1: long bank of American flags and the typical Trump set 395 00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:43,200 Speaker 1: up a lot of phones in the air here, Kayley, 396 00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:46,240 Speaker 1: as we wait to hear remarks from the former president, 397 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:49,800 Speaker 1: I'm curious which Trump we get. If it's retribution Trump 398 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:52,119 Speaker 1: or if it's come together unity Trump. 399 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:54,160 Speaker 5: We've seen both in the last week. 400 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:58,359 Speaker 2: Yes, we absolutely have after Iowa, very congratulatory tone, even 401 00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:01,199 Speaker 2: for Ronda Santas Nicki Haley for the campaigns they were 402 00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:03,760 Speaker 2: running their much more disciplined message. We'll wait to see 403 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:07,760 Speaker 2: how what kind of tone he strikes this evening, Professor Lyon, 404 00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:09,920 Speaker 2: just one more question quickly, and I apologize that we'll 405 00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:14,160 Speaker 2: have to interrupt you when the former president starts to speak. 406 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:17,000 Speaker 2: You were talking about your students and also explaining to 407 00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:18,639 Speaker 2: them the issues of the Middle East. And we have 408 00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:22,840 Speaker 2: seen that students, the younger population here in the United 409 00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:25,200 Speaker 2: States has at least a group of them very particular 410 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 2: feeling about what's happening right now in Gaza, the conflict 411 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:32,399 Speaker 2: between Israel and Hamas. How much is that dragging on 412 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:35,800 Speaker 2: the incumbent President Joe Biden his handling of that issue 413 00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:38,800 Speaker 2: in particular, as we have seen tens of thousands of 414 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:40,520 Speaker 2: civilians killed. 415 00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:43,560 Speaker 8: Yeah, I think it's going to be a significant issue 416 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:46,600 Speaker 8: for whoever becomes president, and it's definitely something that Biden's 417 00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:48,520 Speaker 8: had to tread very carefully. 418 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:51,480 Speaker 7: One, we have been unconditional. 419 00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:55,560 Speaker 8: Allies of Israel for years and years, and how unconditional 420 00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:57,720 Speaker 8: is that? But also being mindful of the fact that 421 00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:00,359 Speaker 8: there are twenty two Arab states, and there is thee 422 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:03,080 Speaker 8: On and there is Turkey, and we are close to 423 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:04,240 Speaker 8: those countries as well. 424 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,960 Speaker 1: Joining us now Bloomberg's Peggy Collins and Mario Parker with 425 00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:10,680 Speaker 1: us at the table now that we have a better 426 00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:14,840 Speaker 1: sense of where we're going here. Mario, you covered Donald 427 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:19,200 Speaker 1: Trump in the White House and as a candidate, how difficult, 428 00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:21,360 Speaker 1: how bruising is this going to be for the next 429 00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:23,240 Speaker 1: four weeks if she decides to stay in this race. 430 00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 9: Well, Joe and Kayley, you all set it up perfectly. 431 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:27,919 Speaker 9: I mean, what you saw in that speech that he 432 00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:30,920 Speaker 9: just gave was he was signaling it it's gonna be rough. 433 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:34,320 Speaker 9: Now he's about to probably start throwing some really really 434 00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:37,880 Speaker 9: tough haymakers, especially as he goes towards South Carolina. Look, 435 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:41,119 Speaker 9: the former president is under legal troubles. He wants to 436 00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:44,520 Speaker 9: make this a coronation more than a nomination. He needs 437 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:47,920 Speaker 9: these victories. He needed this New Hampshire victory. He needed Iowa. 438 00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:51,840 Speaker 9: He's gonna need South Carolina. She's signaling that she's gonna 439 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:54,520 Speaker 9: stay in the race until South Carolina at least, so 440 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:56,320 Speaker 9: you're gonna see things get pretty ugly. 441 00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:58,879 Speaker 2: Well in South Carolina is still four weeks away. That 442 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:02,119 Speaker 2: primary Peggy is on on February twenty fourth. We have 443 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,840 Speaker 2: a global audience joining us here on TV and radio tonight. 444 00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:09,360 Speaker 2: Would anyone listening to us right now have any real 445 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 2: reason to believe that Trump wasn't ultimately going to be 446 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:15,280 Speaker 2: the nominee, regardless of whether or not Nikki Hailey decides 447 00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:19,680 Speaker 2: to continue competing in these contests or not. Right now, 448 00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,840 Speaker 2: looking at the data, he pulled more than fifty percent 449 00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,560 Speaker 2: of the vote here as he did in Iowa last week. 450 00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,679 Speaker 10: Well, I think the momentum is clearly going his way. 451 00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:32,040 Speaker 10: That's undeniable. But I think what people have said it 452 00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:34,919 Speaker 10: round the Klee campaign, even in the days leading up 453 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 10: to this, is that they wanted to show that they 454 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:40,159 Speaker 10: are doing better with each race. So they did do 455 00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,520 Speaker 10: that tonight. They had a better showing than in Iowa. 456 00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:45,280 Speaker 10: So the question is going to be in her home state. 457 00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:48,880 Speaker 10: Can she perform even better than she did here in Iowa. 458 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,280 Speaker 10: So now we're getting into, as Mario said, kind of 459 00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 10: the zone of the fifty percent and whether or not 460 00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,600 Speaker 10: she can show that she's going to be able to 461 00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:01,040 Speaker 10: compete with Donald Trump before he gets that coronation and 462 00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:02,680 Speaker 10: nomination slam dunk. 463 00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:05,520 Speaker 1: In some ways, The question worth asking again, though, Mario, 464 00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:07,479 Speaker 1: is how she can do it there if not here 465 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:09,680 Speaker 1: in New Hampshire, knowing it's going to be a lot 466 00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:14,240 Speaker 1: closer to Iowa politics in terms of demographics and values 467 00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:17,160 Speaker 1: in South Carolina. I believe Genie mentioned one in four 468 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:18,840 Speaker 1: Republicans or evangelicals. 469 00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:20,720 Speaker 5: That's Trump country again, is it not. 470 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:24,600 Speaker 9: That's a great point, Joe. I mean, you saw Nikki 471 00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:28,760 Speaker 9: Haley's campaign. Also, you saw Americans for Prosperity other groups 472 00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:32,240 Speaker 9: really go all in. In New Hampshire. This was her 473 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:36,440 Speaker 9: best shot right now, just given the composition of the electorate, 474 00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:43,920 Speaker 9: highly educated, white collar suburbans, moderate voters as well undecided voters. 475 00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:45,919 Speaker 9: And then you go to South Carolina, it looks a 476 00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,480 Speaker 9: lot like Iowa. She's hoping that she has a little 477 00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:51,760 Speaker 9: bit of home court advantage there, but again, this is 478 00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:55,480 Speaker 9: a deeply red state in South Carolina, it is they. 479 00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:57,359 Speaker 5: Also got a history of some pretty dirty. 480 00:23:57,080 --> 00:24:00,280 Speaker 9: Tricks, that is true, absolutely, and then you've got Donald 481 00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:03,080 Speaker 9: Trump down now he's had this infrastructure again. I think 482 00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:04,720 Speaker 9: one of the things that we forget about in this 483 00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:07,000 Speaker 9: election is the fact that Donald Trump is running for 484 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:10,680 Speaker 9: a third time. The muscle memory that you get the infrastructure, 485 00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:14,280 Speaker 9: infrastructure that you have over that course as well able 486 00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:15,840 Speaker 9: to kind of sow the ground in some of these 487 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:16,520 Speaker 9: key states. 488 00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:16,920 Speaker 6: Well. 489 00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 2: And that's what we've been hearing about his campaign this 490 00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:21,399 Speaker 2: third time around, that it is much more organized, that 491 00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,280 Speaker 2: they are much more disciplined, and perhaps we are seeing 492 00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:27,240 Speaker 2: the reaped reward of that in New Hampshire this evening, 493 00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:31,639 Speaker 2: we're talking about South Carolina in terms of the Republican primary, Peggy, 494 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:33,640 Speaker 2: but there will also be a Democratic Party in South 495 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:36,520 Speaker 2: Carolina officially, if we're talking about what counts in terms 496 00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:39,240 Speaker 2: of delegates, it will be the first for the Democratic Party. 497 00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:41,760 Speaker 2: Joe Biden was not on the ballot here in the 498 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:44,399 Speaker 2: Granite State this evening, there was a write in campaign. 499 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,760 Speaker 2: It appears he won that by a pretty sizable margin. 500 00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:51,000 Speaker 2: Dean Phillips, though a congressman from Minnesota, a Democrat got 501 00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:52,680 Speaker 2: twenty percent of the vote. 502 00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:54,320 Speaker 3: How should we be thinking about. 503 00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 2: What New Hampshire tells us about the incumbent president as 504 00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 2: he is the presumptive Democratic nominee at this point. 505 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,480 Speaker 10: I certainly think we saw in talking to voters and 506 00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:04,320 Speaker 10: then tonight in some of the results, that there are 507 00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:07,200 Speaker 10: a lot of people who are saying they're not seeing 508 00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:09,040 Speaker 10: what they want to see coming out of the Biden 509 00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:12,320 Speaker 10: administration and their campaign. We saw time and time again 510 00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:15,639 Speaker 10: that people were telling us immigration and border security have 511 00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:18,440 Speaker 10: become almost as big as, if not a bigger issue 512 00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,960 Speaker 10: than how much people are seeing their pocketbooks get hurt 513 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,480 Speaker 10: by inflation, which was the big issue last year. So 514 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:27,520 Speaker 10: I certainly think that people are looking to the president 515 00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:30,320 Speaker 10: and not only asking questions about age, but asking questions 516 00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:33,120 Speaker 10: about policy, and so the Biden campaign is really going 517 00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:37,080 Speaker 10: to have to answer those questions to voters heading into 518 00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:37,960 Speaker 10: South Carolina. 519 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:39,280 Speaker 7: As you said, Haley. 520 00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:42,840 Speaker 10: As you said, Cally, I'm sorry in terms of how 521 00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:44,760 Speaker 10: they are going to solve some of these problems that 522 00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:47,520 Speaker 10: Americans are saying, Hey, we see this as a problem, 523 00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 10: we want a solution for it. 524 00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:50,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, Mario, you got a fascinating interview that you brought 525 00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:54,080 Speaker 1: us at Bloomberg with Larry Hogan when he was still 526 00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,680 Speaker 1: a national coach here of No Labels. These since left 527 00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:58,720 Speaker 1: that group which got everyone thinking he might launch a 528 00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 1: run for the presidency. They have said, if it's Trump 529 00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,479 Speaker 1: Biden by Super Tuesday, we're running a candidate, whether it's 530 00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:06,800 Speaker 1: Larry Hogan or someone else, Will that happen. 531 00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:09,800 Speaker 9: It looks like it, right, because that's what's happening. At 532 00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:12,439 Speaker 9: least we're at least as of today, it looks like 533 00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:16,119 Speaker 9: we're going forth towards this rematch of Biden and Trump, 534 00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:19,359 Speaker 9: something that voters are polling shows that voters have no 535 00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:22,720 Speaker 9: appetite for. So it does look like the No Label's 536 00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:25,240 Speaker 9: movement will be moving forward, at least if they're going 537 00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:26,560 Speaker 9: to keep their word in that regard. 538 00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,720 Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg's Mario Parker, who leads our White House 539 00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:32,000 Speaker 2: and National politics covered here at Bloomberg, as well as 540 00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:34,399 Speaker 2: Peggy Collins, are Washington Bureau chief. Thank you both so 541 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,280 Speaker 2: much for joining us this evening, not from Washington, but 542 00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:40,720 Speaker 2: from Manchester, New Hampshire, where Trump has been declared the 543 00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:43,160 Speaker 2: victor of the first in the nation primary.