1 00:00:01,400 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Along 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:10,360 Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 4 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:13,560 Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Kind the Bloomberg Markets 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, 6 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. It is time now to 7 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: introduce our first guest. Also, somebody who has been around 8 00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:29,080 Speaker 1: for some time and will remember very very vividly eleven 9 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 1: and that's Jim bianco founder and president of Bianco Research 10 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:34,839 Speaker 1: based in Chicago. And I'm sure Jim, you know it 11 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 1: would have been a fearsome size to be watching that 12 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:42,200 Speaker 1: on the floor, on the trading floor in Chicago. Yeah, 13 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:45,960 Speaker 1: in a lot of ways, like it was yesterday, and 14 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:48,519 Speaker 1: it was you know, I've been in the markets for 15 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 1: thirty three years and it still remains one of the 16 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 1: seminal days of my career. Jim, you know, it's been 17 00:00:57,600 --> 00:01:00,920 Speaker 1: a difficult time recently, and you know today obviously is 18 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:03,520 Speaker 1: it's extra difficult for a lot of people. But the 19 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:06,320 Speaker 1: difficulty that we've seen in the last few months, does 20 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 1: it persist through the end of the year. And into 21 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:11,840 Speaker 1: the next year in terms of economic fundamentals, in terms 22 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:15,399 Speaker 1: of just general suffering out there. We'll get to the 23 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 1: markets in a moment. Yeah, you're You're right to point 24 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 1: out that there's the economy and what's happening with the economy. 25 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:25,040 Speaker 1: And I do think that what we've seen is a 26 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:29,440 Speaker 1: series of stumbles. The economic recovery off the COVID low 27 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:33,120 Speaker 1: and may seem to have stalled around July. The need 28 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:37,560 Speaker 1: for stimulus, because remember the government shut down the economy 29 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:40,120 Speaker 1: and a lot of people lost their jobs because of that, 30 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 1: seems to be dead now since to at least past 31 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 1: the election, and that's going to also kind of drag 32 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 1: on the economy as well too. So I don't think 33 00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: the economy is going backwards. I just think that the 34 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:58,600 Speaker 1: recovery to something that was a pre COVID normal has stalled, 35 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 1: and we've got more AVID instead, it's going to be 36 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:04,160 Speaker 1: even harder to get back there. So the economy itself, 37 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 1: um seems to have just slottened out at a lower level, 38 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,360 Speaker 1: and net net, that's not the best place to be, 39 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:14,360 Speaker 1: so Jim. And given that backdrop, and given the fact 40 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 1: that Congress looks like I will be unable to deliver 41 00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:21,520 Speaker 1: at least a near term fiscal stimulus. What are investors 42 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 1: to do? Are they just simply leaning back on that backstop, 43 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 1: which is a federal reserve and ECB just you know, 44 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 1: providing tremendous liquidity in the market, And is that all 45 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:33,080 Speaker 1: we need? Well, that's what we have. Let's put it 46 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:35,960 Speaker 1: that way, because we talked about with the economy. Let's 47 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 1: add in then that if you look at valuations and 48 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 1: you look at the forward pe ratios, even if you 49 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 1: take out the Fang stocks, you're near the two thousand 50 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,920 Speaker 1: bubble peaks in terms of how overvalued this market is 51 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 1: by a lot of metrics. Others aren't, but a lot are. 52 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 1: So this is by no stretches as a cheap market. 53 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 1: So if you're an investor, you're saying, look, the economy 54 00:02:56,520 --> 00:03:00,160 Speaker 1: is stalling, the market's overvalued. Boy, let's sound like a 55 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 1: really that mixed. Why am I in this market? Well, 56 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 1: you've got the federal reserve and you've got the government 57 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:08,280 Speaker 1: that's been promising to build out the airline industry and 58 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:10,840 Speaker 1: the cruise ship industry, and they're not going to go 59 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:14,400 Speaker 1: down without a fight. To at least protect investors, we 60 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: could debate whether or not that's you know, eth a 61 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:19,359 Speaker 1: color or proper for them to do it, but that's 62 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 1: what they are doing, and that's a big support for 63 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 1: the market. And I think I don't know if there's 64 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:27,359 Speaker 1: enough to push the market up, but if you it's 65 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:30,440 Speaker 1: enough to really temper being very barished at this point. 66 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:32,320 Speaker 1: So that's why I think we're gonna have a ten 67 00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 1: to fifteent correction. We've already got eight of it done, 68 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 1: so we're already halfway there and probably continue to grind 69 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 1: sideways for the next several months. Jim being a fixed 70 00:03:42,320 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 1: in common voultility expert, what do you do in a 71 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 1: market like this? Do you traders? Do you stay on 72 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:51,760 Speaker 1: the sidelines? Yeah? The bond market has been a real 73 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:55,440 Speaker 1: tough one for traders because there's nothing to trade. It 74 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 1: doesn't do anything. We're now down to watching three basis 75 00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 1: point moves which are not very significant, and pre COVID 76 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 1: world as something meaningful, but they're really not um I 77 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:08,360 Speaker 1: think the way you want to look at the bond 78 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 1: market is the big basic question is does all of 79 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:14,960 Speaker 1: the stimulus and all of the Federal Reserve action and 80 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 1: everything worldwide, Let's put all the central banks in there 81 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 1: lead to inflation sometime next year. I think the answer 82 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:25,240 Speaker 1: is yes, and I think that's going to put upward 83 00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:28,080 Speaker 1: pressure on interest rates at least in a year or so, 84 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:32,039 Speaker 1: not immediately. Uh. And that would be my bias towards 85 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:35,599 Speaker 1: trading the market. But your basic question is right, it's 86 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 1: a tough market to trade because it doesn't do much 87 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 1: of anything right now. It's been one of the narrowest 88 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 1: ranges we've seen in the history of the bond market 89 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:45,719 Speaker 1: over the last three or four months. Alright, So Jim 90 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 1: sticking with the bond market, Where in terms are we 91 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 1: seeing credit quality issues creeping into this market in a 92 00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 1: meaningful way? We had early on in the pandemic to 93 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:58,240 Speaker 1: you know, some of the retailers, you know, file and 94 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:01,600 Speaker 1: kind of talk and you know, disclose the financial hardship 95 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:03,480 Speaker 1: they are having. Are we seeing more of that in 96 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 1: other sectors? Yeah? You know, credit quality you can look 97 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 1: at it one of two ways. You can look at 98 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:12,040 Speaker 1: just the fundamentals of the companies that are issuing debt 99 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:15,600 Speaker 1: and saying how court worthy are they? And the answer 100 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:18,200 Speaker 1: there is yeah, you can see some definite signs of 101 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 1: credit quality issues. The only way you can look at 102 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:25,039 Speaker 1: it is. How about investors are they demanding more uh, 103 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 1: you know, tougher standards in order to ballrow or let 104 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:30,720 Speaker 1: companies follow. And the answers now, they've just been head 105 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:32,920 Speaker 1: over heels and grabbing anything that they can get their 106 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 1: hands on because we've been setting issuance records. Um, we've 107 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:40,440 Speaker 1: already broke the the yearly record and it's only September 108 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:44,239 Speaker 1: right now. So yeah, companies, shake your companies are allowed 109 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 1: to trade thatt and investors are stepping up on it. 110 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:50,800 Speaker 1: Why our investors buying to shake your debt? Hate to 111 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:53,279 Speaker 1: come back to the same issue again. The photow Reserve 112 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 1: is buying the stuff too, and that there's a perception 113 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 1: that they're backdropped in there. And the battle cry on 114 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:01,720 Speaker 1: Wall Street has been called invest with the Fed. If 115 00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:04,480 Speaker 1: they're going to buy corporate bonds in corporate et bond 116 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:07,680 Speaker 1: e t F tied to corporate bonds, you should too. 117 00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:11,400 Speaker 1: Don't get blong up on the credit quality issues. And 118 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:15,160 Speaker 1: that seems to be what has driven this absolute need 119 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 1: by corporate investors to buy corporate bonds even no matter 120 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:21,440 Speaker 1: what the credit quality is. Is it wise for companies 121 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:24,479 Speaker 1: to continue to issue Jim, I mean I suppose the 122 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:27,359 Speaker 1: obvious answer is yes, right, issue as much as you 123 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:30,599 Speaker 1: can until this era is over. But at the same time, well, 124 00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 1: companies have a headache after all of this. Well, it 125 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:35,280 Speaker 1: depends on why the company is issuing. You know, if 126 00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 1: you take a company like six Flags or Carnival Crews, Uh, 127 00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 1: they issued a tremendous amount of debt early on in 128 00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:45,159 Speaker 1: April and May, so that they had enough cash that 129 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:47,800 Speaker 1: if they if they never opened use six Flags, if 130 00:06:47,839 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 1: they never opened their theme parks, they're still going to 131 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:53,359 Speaker 1: be in business next year. And so that made sense 132 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:55,960 Speaker 1: that they were looking over the ravine and trying to 133 00:06:55,960 --> 00:06:59,520 Speaker 1: get to the other side. But if you're a company 134 00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:02,080 Speaker 1: like Apple or one of the things, you don't need 135 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 1: the money, Should I just go out and ball it 136 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:08,560 Speaker 1: just because I can? That could be a situation where 137 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 1: down the road you could say, why did I do this? 138 00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 1: You know, it just puts an extra burden on me. 139 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:15,280 Speaker 1: I didn't need the money, but now I gotta pay 140 00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 1: it back as well. So it's not always a good 141 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:22,000 Speaker 1: thing to ball unless there's a specific reason. Carnival and 142 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 1: six Flags had a specific reason. Some of these other 143 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:29,480 Speaker 1: companies don't. So Jim if investors are searching for yield, 144 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 1: and maybe they're willing to go down the credit chain 145 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 1: a little bit potentially having that FED reserve backstop About 146 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 1: emerging markets, is that too far out or there's some 147 00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:41,600 Speaker 1: areas there that you're seeing some opportunities. You know, that 148 00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 1: might be a little too far out because there is 149 00:07:44,960 --> 00:07:50,000 Speaker 1: no backstop there. For one two, they are really allvered 150 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:53,680 Speaker 1: play on the emerging markets are an allovered play on 151 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 1: the global recovery. If you think the economy, the global 152 00:07:57,040 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 1: economy is going to recover from the pandemic, they should 153 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:03,560 Speaker 1: do better because they will benefit from it. Uh I 154 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 1: see it even if you take China out of the equation, 155 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:08,440 Speaker 1: because there's such a big player in it. But really 156 00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 1: you've got to look at that a little bit differently. 157 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:13,600 Speaker 1: I look at that more fundamentally and answer that basic question, 158 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 1: are you expecting a global recovery? Well, we flattened out 159 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:20,160 Speaker 1: in the U S in the case, cons in Europe 160 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 1: are back to their April peaks. Sounds like a recovery 161 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 1: continuing again, not necessarily going backwards, but continuing is going 162 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 1: to be difficult, at least for the next several weeks 163 00:08:31,280 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 1: or a few months. And I think that emerging markets 164 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:37,720 Speaker 1: are gonna you know, stall in that mix until we 165 00:08:37,760 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 1: see some clarity on whether or not we're back on 166 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:42,200 Speaker 1: the road to getting to something to what we call 167 00:08:42,280 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 1: pre COVID normal. Jimm, are you spending more time looking 168 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 1: at Europe these days? There's definitely a little more action 169 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:53,720 Speaker 1: in Europe. Yeah, there's uh, yeah, exactly. I have been 170 00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 1: spending more time, you know, with the strength in the 171 00:08:56,600 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 1: euro and with the uh the higher case counts of 172 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:04,960 Speaker 1: COVID and the lack of of their markets not being 173 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 1: as overvalued as the US markets are. They're not back 174 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 1: to their highs. Europe has presented itself as some interesting 175 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 1: opportunities with a lot of cross currents. It's a mix 176 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 1: to try and figure it out. Yep, Hm, text so much. 177 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:22,559 Speaker 1: Jim Bianco founder, president Bianco Research. I'm going to talk 178 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 1: about something that is really emblematic of this really hot 179 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 1: market we're in, and that is the blank check companies. 180 00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:34,600 Speaker 1: We used to call them spack special purpose uh issues. Um, 181 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:36,839 Speaker 1: they're all the rates here, you know, and they're getting 182 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:40,760 Speaker 1: some big name financiers going out with blank check companies 183 00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 1: to get more details on that. We're fortunate, Crystal say 184 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:47,480 Speaker 1: she's a Bloomberg News reporter. Crystal tell us just first, 185 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 1: what is a blank check company and why is it 186 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:55,880 Speaker 1: the rate today? Yeah? Um, blank check companies. They are 187 00:09:55,920 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 1: called special purpose acquisition vehicles UM all blank check or SPACs. 188 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:03,559 Speaker 1: We these are companies that go through the ip A 189 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:08,720 Speaker 1: process raise a pool of money from investors without knowing 190 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 1: a target, without having an operating business, and further down 191 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:15,800 Speaker 1: the line, usually twenty four months later, they identify a 192 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:20,680 Speaker 1: target and they acquire usually a minority state. And we 193 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:22,800 Speaker 1: are really in this moment in time where we're seeing 194 00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 1: a huge boom of these deals in the market. Like 195 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:29,360 Speaker 1: I think there's been thirty five billion of deal has 196 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 1: been raised this year and that's like more than ninety 197 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 1: SPAC deals so far, and and we're seeing all these 198 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:39,720 Speaker 1: big names coming. Yeah, Crystal, how does the SPAC sponsor 199 00:10:39,760 --> 00:10:42,040 Speaker 1: decide what kind of size of SPAK he wants to 200 00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:45,520 Speaker 1: go to market with? Because technically, if they don't know 201 00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:49,360 Speaker 1: in advance what they're target is, right, what company they're 202 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:52,319 Speaker 1: targeting to to reverse merge with and and go public with, 203 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 1: then they could literally sort of you know, look at 204 00:10:55,679 --> 00:10:59,439 Speaker 1: any kind of size of company. And yet you have 205 00:10:59,640 --> 00:11:03,520 Speaker 1: like Cliff Robbins raising sey million, but you like a 206 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 1: black man raising four billion. Yeah, the strategy used to 207 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:10,960 Speaker 1: be you raise a very small spack in the beginning, 208 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 1: and then you add on with a pipe investment to 209 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:16,079 Speaker 1: finance the deal at the end. So it gives you 210 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 1: a little bit of flexibility because in the beginning, like 211 00:11:18,840 --> 00:11:20,959 Speaker 1: you said, you have no idea what you're gonna buy. 212 00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 1: But I think in reality a lot of responsors have 213 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:26,800 Speaker 1: a little bit of an idea what they want, at 214 00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 1: least in the size of what they want. For instance, 215 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:32,960 Speaker 1: when Bill Aggon raises four billion dollars back, he said 216 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 1: in the perspectives that he's looking for a mature you 217 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:38,000 Speaker 1: unicon that has a market cap or market value of 218 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:41,080 Speaker 1: like ten billions. So they do have a site, they 219 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 1: do have a size. If you have a target, they 220 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 1: most likely have a sector in mine as well. A 221 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:47,719 Speaker 1: lot of the target. A lot of the time they 222 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:50,160 Speaker 1: tell you in the perspectives that they target either like 223 00:11:50,160 --> 00:11:52,959 Speaker 1: consumer companies, tech is a very hot one, and then 224 00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:55,840 Speaker 1: they're obviously general at SPACs, but like sector focus back 225 00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 1: a lot more common. So Crystal can any I mean, 226 00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:02,640 Speaker 1: you have to be a bill actman to really kind 227 00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 1: of get these special purpose entities done. I mean it 228 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:09,280 Speaker 1: just you can't just be some hotshot trader, can you. 229 00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:14,199 Speaker 1: So our and in our research we found that sixty 230 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:18,320 Speaker 1: percent of the issuers that race back this year has 231 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:22,800 Speaker 1: never done at before. So the the the entry barrier 232 00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:26,600 Speaker 1: seems to have seems to be a little you know 233 00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:29,880 Speaker 1: lower these days. But but does it mean that investor 234 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:32,719 Speaker 1: will give anybody money? I don't think that's the case. UM. 235 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:36,440 Speaker 1: Spack is a very much of a charismatic driven product. 236 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 1: It's very much up to how much the investor trust 237 00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:42,559 Speaker 1: that the sponsor has the ability to find a good target. 238 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 1: So UM, at the end of it, like, it's always 239 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:50,720 Speaker 1: helps having some celebrity investors or even someone who just 240 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:53,079 Speaker 1: has who just is a household name to be on 241 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:56,600 Speaker 1: the spectboard or a spec director UM to be able 242 00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 1: to get a deal done. It's for sure feels like 243 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 1: if you are the company getting acquired that it might 244 00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:06,320 Speaker 1: be nicer to go with somebody who is going to 245 00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:09,840 Speaker 1: be accountable to the public markets rather than say private 246 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:12,880 Speaker 1: equity for example. But is that the only reason these 247 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:18,800 Speaker 1: companies are choosing SPACs isn't that they can't go public 248 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:22,640 Speaker 1: on their own? I feel like there is an element 249 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:25,520 Speaker 1: of it. Like some companies on its own, they don't 250 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:28,080 Speaker 1: have a story, they don't have an easy story to 251 00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:31,200 Speaker 1: tell in an I p O process, or they really 252 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:33,360 Speaker 1: need the capital that therefore they can't go for the 253 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:36,200 Speaker 1: direct listening process. By the way, that is changing because 254 00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:39,839 Speaker 1: direct listening now allow companies to raise capital. But but 255 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:42,200 Speaker 1: I think everything combined and if you if you're a 256 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:44,600 Speaker 1: company and you look at the sponsor team, you look 257 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:46,840 Speaker 1: at the bill Acman, and you think this team is 258 00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:49,120 Speaker 1: going to help you with your business, and it's going 259 00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:51,599 Speaker 1: to raise the profile of your company, then going with 260 00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:55,520 Speaker 1: the fact does come with that UM expertise and they 261 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 1: do come with that stamp of approval UM. But but 262 00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 1: other benefits of going with a private equity there's still 263 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 1: are because there's still private and you know, accountable the 264 00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:10,199 Speaker 1: public market. UM. But I do think there is increasingly UM. 265 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:14,440 Speaker 1: Increasingly tech companies or like high profile companies are more accepted, 266 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 1: are more receptive to this idea of selling to a 267 00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:21,400 Speaker 1: spect so Crystal, there are those in the market that 268 00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:24,080 Speaker 1: are saying, boy, these things are really speculed off. They 269 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:28,320 Speaker 1: are perhaps a signal of frothiness or top in the market. 270 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:32,320 Speaker 1: What did you hear when you're doing your reporting, if 271 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:35,920 Speaker 1: history is any guide the laws broom that we see 272 00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:39,680 Speaker 1: or this this size and scope, it's in two thousand 273 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:41,600 Speaker 1: and seven, two thousand and eight, and we oh know 274 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 1: what happened after that. UM. So so there is a 275 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 1: little bit of vindicator that this is roughly and there's 276 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:52,320 Speaker 1: a lot of money in the market. There's you know, 277 00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:56,760 Speaker 1: the interest rates low people looking for for alpha spects 278 00:14:56,800 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 1: seems to be the product to be UM. But we 279 00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:04,480 Speaker 1: are also seeing sort of different different signs that that 280 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:08,360 Speaker 1: even even the sack market is showing the slowdown. UM. 281 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:10,840 Speaker 1: But but I guess we will see. But but it's 282 00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:15,960 Speaker 1: this frothy I think definitely. So you know, what's the 283 00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 1: typical length of time, because yes, you do have two years, 284 00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 1: and of course you can extend the two years. But 285 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:23,080 Speaker 1: I feel like these days a lot of this money 286 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:25,960 Speaker 1: has been raised with the notion of taking advantage of 287 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:32,600 Speaker 1: pandemic era valuations. Yeah, so twenty four months is UM. Legally, 288 00:15:32,680 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 1: when they how long they have UM, they can apply 289 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 1: for usually a three month extension. But what is interesting 290 00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:44,240 Speaker 1: is that we are seeing UM these facts closing deal sooner. UM. 291 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:47,040 Speaker 1: They used to close deal probably like a year out 292 00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:49,720 Speaker 1: of a year ahead of the closing of the I 293 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 1: p O. But for instance, the deal that we reported 294 00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:58,200 Speaker 1: yesterday um Social Capital Um they found a target after 295 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:02,800 Speaker 1: three months of of listing, and that is backed by 296 00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:07,720 Speaker 1: Schamaz which took Virgin Galactic public right. So that's the 297 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:11,400 Speaker 1: high profile viewser Yeah, the high profile is a closing spooner. 298 00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 1: But we we haven't seen much of the sort of 299 00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:17,440 Speaker 1: second tier mid market one Crystal, thank you so much 300 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:20,200 Speaker 1: for joining us, Crystal, say, Bloomberg IPO reporter on a 301 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 1: fascinating story about these these SPACs, if you will, the 302 00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:27,880 Speaker 1: blank check companies. Uh, they're certainly popularly this year as 303 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 1: Crystals reporting just billions of dollars raised, uh, and then 304 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:34,000 Speaker 1: kind of getting mergers done and getting into the public markets. 305 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:40,120 Speaker 1: That way, fascinating story in this market. Right here, it 306 00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 1: is time for Bloomberg Opinion and the latest column from 307 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:47,360 Speaker 1: Tim O'Brien is entitled of Course Trump couldn't resist Bob 308 00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:50,400 Speaker 1: Woodward subtitled once again he was takenly trusted in his 309 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:53,720 Speaker 1: own ability to steer the story. We welcome now Timothy O'Brien, 310 00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 1: a senior columns to for Bloomberg Opinion. So obviously the 311 00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:01,440 Speaker 1: story has sort of gotten out of it in Trump's hands. 312 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:04,280 Speaker 1: Is there any way that he didn't know this is 313 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:06,680 Speaker 1: going to happen? I mean, it's Bob woodword after all, 314 00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:08,359 Speaker 1: And this isn't the first time, even in the Trump 315 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 1: presidency that this has happened to him. Well, Bonnie, yes, 316 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:17,440 Speaker 1: there is a possibility actually didn't foresee this spinning out 317 00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:21,240 Speaker 1: the way it has because he doesn't think strategically or 318 00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:25,000 Speaker 1: think ahead in that regard. But the other so that's 319 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:29,160 Speaker 1: a weakness. The other thing is he doesn't usually care 320 00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:32,360 Speaker 1: about the fallout from a lot of this stuff anyway. 321 00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:36,000 Speaker 1: In in in an odd way, it's a strange strength because 322 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:39,400 Speaker 1: this is what has allowed him to spend decades plowing 323 00:17:39,520 --> 00:17:45,239 Speaker 1: through adverse media coverage and and um and and some 324 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 1: of it does authentically get to him. But by and 325 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:50,680 Speaker 1: large he's very unusual because the things that make him 326 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:55,280 Speaker 1: um apathetic and sort of lacking in compassion for other 327 00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:58,320 Speaker 1: people's struggles are the very things that makes some of 328 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:02,160 Speaker 1: the stuff roll off of his act like water. Uh. 329 00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:07,320 Speaker 1: The problem is every it's different when you're president, quite obviously, 330 00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:09,160 Speaker 1: and and the things that he was used to doing 331 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:14,720 Speaker 1: as a private businessman or as a celebrity. Um had far, 332 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:20,000 Speaker 1: you know, less significant implications than things he's doing now 333 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:24,160 Speaker 1: that he fessed up too in the Woodward interview, including uh, 334 00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:29,680 Speaker 1: you know, irresponsibly and I think horrifyingly knowing that the 335 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:33,840 Speaker 1: pandemic was far more dangerous than he was letting on publicly. Tim, 336 00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:37,560 Speaker 1: I'm so glad that you. I was actually fully expecting 337 00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:40,719 Speaker 1: a column something like this to him, because you're unique 338 00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:44,560 Speaker 1: history with President Trump, having written a book about him 339 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:47,119 Speaker 1: and then have been litigation with him. Is this just 340 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:52,719 Speaker 1: a case where, like with you, he craves this type 341 00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:55,600 Speaker 1: of exposure and he's just not worried about the downside 342 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 1: per se. I think that's a big part of it, Paul. 343 00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:01,120 Speaker 1: I think that's spot on. I think the other thing 344 00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:03,560 Speaker 1: is he regards it as a challenge. He he has 345 00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:06,960 Speaker 1: this belief that he has this magic wand extending from 346 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:09,760 Speaker 1: his index finger that he can wave across the media 347 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:14,480 Speaker 1: landscape and around the heads of reporters and uh, they 348 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 1: will suddenly have the same sense of high regard for 349 00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:21,479 Speaker 1: Trump that he has for himself. And even if the 350 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:25,080 Speaker 1: fact pattern suggests otherwise. And when I you know, when 351 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:27,159 Speaker 1: I wrote the book about him. I had spent the 352 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:30,840 Speaker 1: previous decade episodically covering him. I had interviewed him for 353 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 1: another book I had done in the mid nineties on gambling. Um. 354 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:37,119 Speaker 1: And then I was at The New York Times in 355 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 1: the early two thousands, where I was covering him in 356 00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:43,280 Speaker 1: the news pages very critically. Uh. And then we did 357 00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 1: the book together, and he wanted to do the book 358 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:47,520 Speaker 1: with me, and we spent a ton of time together. 359 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:50,440 Speaker 1: I think I've spent more time with him than any 360 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:55,040 Speaker 1: other reporter. It was dozens of interviewer interviews and you know, 361 00:19:55,119 --> 00:20:00,560 Speaker 1: scores of hours together. And UM, he just didn't have, 362 00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:03,240 Speaker 1: I think, a sense that maybe he needed to be 363 00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:07,240 Speaker 1: more uh judicious about what he was saying or how 364 00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:09,840 Speaker 1: we were engaging. And I'm not unique in that regard. 365 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 1: It's it's that's probably informed every interaction he's had with 366 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,200 Speaker 1: reporters over the years. Tim, how do you feel about 367 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,800 Speaker 1: the question of whether Bob Woodward really had an ethical 368 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:22,720 Speaker 1: or moral duty to release some of the content of 369 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:26,080 Speaker 1: these tapes before the book actually got written. Well, you know, 370 00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:28,520 Speaker 1: Margaret Stulti in the media the media columnists for the 371 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:33,200 Speaker 1: Washington Post did a lengthy or you know, an interview 372 00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:38,879 Speaker 1: with with Bob about that. His response was, when um, 373 00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:41,919 Speaker 1: he began reporting this, you know, the first conversation they had, 374 00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 1: it was in February earlier this year. No one really 375 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 1: knew at that point what a full blown public health 376 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:53,920 Speaker 1: crisis the epidemic of the pandemic would become. And um uh, 377 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 1: and he wanted to spend more time coming to understand 378 00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:01,240 Speaker 1: the administration view on all this and didn't and had 379 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:04,959 Speaker 1: an evolving understanding of it himself. Um. You know, I 380 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:07,880 Speaker 1: think that that's that's all fine and good, and say 381 00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 1: the first three months of it, but certainly by April, 382 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 1: you know, lockdowns began in mid March. By April, we 383 00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:16,960 Speaker 1: all certainly knew there was a crisis of foot, and 384 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 1: I think it would have been useful for for him 385 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:22,960 Speaker 1: to disclose some of that. I do think by April 386 00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:26,240 Speaker 1: we knew there was already public information that the White 387 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:29,679 Speaker 1: House knew the pandemic was far more serious than they 388 00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,679 Speaker 1: were letting on and had known that earlier. So that 389 00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:34,840 Speaker 1: had come out from other sources at that point too. 390 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:36,720 Speaker 1: But I think that's a good question to be asked 391 00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:40,399 Speaker 1: of of any book writer who holds onto important information, 392 00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:44,680 Speaker 1: especially in the midst of a crisis like this, Tim, 393 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:47,359 Speaker 1: do you think the contents of this book, you know, 394 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:49,199 Speaker 1: and and the heels of all the other books that 395 00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:53,359 Speaker 1: have been written just recently let have any impact on 396 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,600 Speaker 1: this election? Or will it be like it seems like 397 00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,879 Speaker 1: all the other noise and information out there, it just 398 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:05,600 Speaker 1: won't stick or turn the needle, um, you know, move 399 00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:10,240 Speaker 1: the needle, you know. I here's the thing. I partisans 400 00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:14,159 Speaker 1: who don't like Trumps and partisans who love Trump aren't 401 00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,439 Speaker 1: usually gonna get swayed by any of this. But the 402 00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:19,520 Speaker 1: reality is what's going to happen to that middle range 403 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:23,880 Speaker 1: of swing voters independence in six or seven states, We're 404 00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:26,240 Speaker 1: going to determine the outcome of the election. And one 405 00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:29,320 Speaker 1: thing that this book has done is it as radically 406 00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:33,480 Speaker 1: turned the focus back to Trump's management of the pandemic, 407 00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:36,359 Speaker 1: which is his biggest liability in this election. And coming 408 00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:41,160 Speaker 1: off the Republican National Convention, UH, the GOP has been 409 00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:46,639 Speaker 1: has been mightily trying to make this salaon order issue 410 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 1: and there's protests in the street and Trump is better 411 00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:51,840 Speaker 1: than Biden in that regard, and they've been spending tons 412 00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:55,440 Speaker 1: of their time messaging around that and in one fell swoop, 413 00:22:55,800 --> 00:23:00,960 Speaker 1: Trump's um injudicious interviews with Bob Woodward, UH and the 414 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 1: publication of this book have put the pandemic front and center. Again. 415 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:08,359 Speaker 1: That's a campaign liability. There's no question about that. Whether 416 00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:11,040 Speaker 1: or not that will turn the elections. Another thing, Tim, 417 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:14,280 Speaker 1: what's the strategy behind no More Stimulus? I mean, is 418 00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:16,960 Speaker 1: the president going to unilatterally sign an executive order at 419 00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,840 Speaker 1: some point right before the election in order to try 420 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:23,920 Speaker 1: to to to beef up sentiments, positive sentiment towards him, 421 00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:28,200 Speaker 1: because otherwise people are literally going to starve. No. Well, 422 00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:30,320 Speaker 1: I think, you know, I you know, I'm of the 423 00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:33,480 Speaker 1: view that the federal government needs to have a new 424 00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:37,000 Speaker 1: Deal esque thought about bringing the private sector in the 425 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,639 Speaker 1: public sector again to solve the problems we're facing right now, 426 00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:45,000 Speaker 1: and that that requires, um, a fiscal effort and a 427 00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:48,760 Speaker 1: federal effort, and UM, they're clearly not up to that. 428 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:51,000 Speaker 1: And I think this is decades of sort of anti 429 00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:55,200 Speaker 1: government mentality catching up to us. I think it's a 430 00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,880 Speaker 1: knee jerk views of the business community is not being 431 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:02,600 Speaker 1: created and responsible, which they can often often be. And 432 00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:04,760 Speaker 1: I think both sides need to come together to resolve 433 00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 1: that this again isn't something Trump can simply waives away 434 00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:11,159 Speaker 1: with an executive order. You really need Congress in the 435 00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:13,879 Speaker 1: American public to get behind it. And I think you 436 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:16,000 Speaker 1: know the fact that Mitch McConnell couldn't get even a 437 00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:20,920 Speaker 1: skinny um you know, Cares Act three through to the 438 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:24,439 Speaker 1: Senate floor for a vote, really shows how behind the 439 00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:27,960 Speaker 1: eight ball we are right now on this in Congress. So, Tim, 440 00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:31,400 Speaker 1: what do you think President trump strategy will be between 441 00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:34,880 Speaker 1: now and an election day? Well, I think he laid 442 00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:37,040 Speaker 1: it out Paul last night in Michigan. He's going to 443 00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:41,159 Speaker 1: say that, um, Democrats want to populate the suburbs with 444 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:46,000 Speaker 1: people of color, and Democrats aren't friends of law enforcement, 445 00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:49,840 Speaker 1: and Democrats are socialists, and they're gonna let terrorists come 446 00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:52,359 Speaker 1: over the border. In some I think he's going to 447 00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:58,080 Speaker 1: use scare tactics to condidates people that everything will implode 448 00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:02,560 Speaker 1: if if Biden becomes president. However, Trump, in saying that 449 00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:06,040 Speaker 1: has to confront the reality that the economy and public 450 00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:09,880 Speaker 1: health have gone completely off the rails during his presidency. Yeah, 451 00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:13,600 Speaker 1: and the pandemic making it worse. I mean, honest, somebody 452 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:15,440 Speaker 1: does something. People are just don't going to start running 453 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:18,320 Speaker 1: out of their medications. They're going to start I mean, tim, 454 00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:20,960 Speaker 1: we know already the tens of thousands of more people 455 00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:24,080 Speaker 1: are going to die between now in January inauguration day. Right, 456 00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:28,000 Speaker 1: what kind of legacy will the next president have, whether 457 00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:32,359 Speaker 1: it's President Trump or Biden? If if, if nothing more 458 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:34,840 Speaker 1: is done, I mean, it feels like they're they're finished, 459 00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:37,159 Speaker 1: right except for the vaccine race. You know, even if 460 00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:40,560 Speaker 1: people don't have a compassion on those issues. Seventy of 461 00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:45,000 Speaker 1: GDP is consumer spending. In order to keep the economy vibrant, 462 00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:48,040 Speaker 1: you need to empower average people to be able to 463 00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,840 Speaker 1: shop at the most basic level. And we've now run 464 00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:55,840 Speaker 1: out of that. Extra extended benefits for unemployment, insurance and 465 00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:58,800 Speaker 1: payments to families that I think helped keep both the 466 00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:01,600 Speaker 1: markets and the economy be more buoyant than they would otherwise, 467 00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,879 Speaker 1: has been between March and now, and now we're starting 468 00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:07,080 Speaker 1: to see slippage in the markets, and I think you're 469 00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,760 Speaker 1: gonna start to see earnings problems at the corporate level 470 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:14,600 Speaker 1: and and in in a GDP effect in addition to 471 00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:18,439 Speaker 1: raw human misery. But if if human misery won't sway 472 00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:21,040 Speaker 1: the needle for folks, then they should really look at 473 00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:24,119 Speaker 1: what the economic and macroeconomic and market impacts of the 474 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,719 Speaker 1: stuff will be. Hey, Tim, thanks so much for joining us. 475 00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:29,439 Speaker 1: We really appreciate you taking the time this morning. Tim O'Brien, 476 00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 1: senior columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, joining us on his column 477 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:37,480 Speaker 1: about the Bob Woodward book of some fascinating perspective that 478 00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:41,680 Speaker 1: Tim has Vanny given that. Again, Tim did work with 479 00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:46,439 Speaker 1: then Donald Trump on an authorized biography and then was 480 00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 1: in some litigation with Mr Trump about that person whatever 481 00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:53,679 Speaker 1: went a lawsuit on in that regard, right, Yeah, absolutely right. 482 00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 1: So it's very interesting to see here whether there will 483 00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:59,480 Speaker 1: be any political fallout for President Trump as it relates 484 00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:02,280 Speaker 1: to this book and others. Uh, but certainly this one 485 00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:04,800 Speaker 1: as it relates to putting the pandemic, as Tim said, 486 00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:09,600 Speaker 1: back on the front burner for this election. Well, we're 487 00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,840 Speaker 1: very lucky right now to have Laurence Sour with us, 488 00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:16,240 Speaker 1: Lauren Jackson with us regularity. She's from Johns Hompkins University. 489 00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:19,239 Speaker 1: She's the assistant for emergency medicine there, and it's been 490 00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:23,159 Speaker 1: quite the six months for Laurence Our and our colleagues. Lauren, 491 00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:25,320 Speaker 1: you know, as we head towards full and as we 492 00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,480 Speaker 1: get the announcement that a court at a quarter capacity 493 00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:32,080 Speaker 1: New York City restaurants can open, and you know, state 494 00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:35,600 Speaker 1: restaurants already open at half capacity for indoor dining. How 495 00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:39,600 Speaker 1: concerned are you that will we'll see a resurgence of 496 00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:43,240 Speaker 1: coronavirus in New York and that that will couple with 497 00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:46,840 Speaker 1: flu season. I think we have to watch the numbers 498 00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:50,520 Speaker 1: very carefully as these reopening activities happen, um, particularly since 499 00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:52,560 Speaker 1: it's going to be happening right around the same time 500 00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:55,119 Speaker 1: that people are less likely to be spending time outside, 501 00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:57,800 Speaker 1: that they're less likely to take advantage of the outdoor 502 00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:01,920 Speaker 1: seating as the temperature school down. Um, So there is 503 00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:05,000 Speaker 1: going to be these other pieces that sort of tip 504 00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,879 Speaker 1: the scale towards the indoor activities. And so when all 505 00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,720 Speaker 1: that comes together, we have to watch for the upticking 506 00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:14,000 Speaker 1: COVID cases, but also our ability to manage the COVID 507 00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:17,280 Speaker 1: cases and identify the COVID cases as flu season is 508 00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:20,359 Speaker 1: Overlaid on top of that, so you know, similar symptoms 509 00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:24,200 Speaker 1: people also needing to come to hospitals potentially. Um, it's 510 00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:26,840 Speaker 1: a great time to advocate to get that flu vaccine, 511 00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:29,200 Speaker 1: so that you reduce your likelihood of getting flu or 512 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,880 Speaker 1: getting as sick from the flu um. All of those 513 00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 1: sort of come together to to make an opportunity for 514 00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:40,600 Speaker 1: the COVID cases the search. So Professor Astro Zeneca had 515 00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:42,440 Speaker 1: some news where they're a little bit of a pause 516 00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,959 Speaker 1: in their vaccine trial. How unusual is that. How much 517 00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:47,640 Speaker 1: of a setback is that? Is that part of the 518 00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:49,920 Speaker 1: normal course of testing? How should we think about that? 519 00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:55,480 Speaker 1: The This is part of the normal procedure for UM, 520 00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:59,960 Speaker 1: the process of creating um UH and testing a vaccine. 521 00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:03,719 Speaker 1: So we while we never want to see adverse events 522 00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:06,040 Speaker 1: in any of themselves, we do want to see the 523 00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:09,840 Speaker 1: process is happening appropriately. So when you have a pause 524 00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:14,160 Speaker 1: like this to investigate and evaluate an event, you know, 525 00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:19,600 Speaker 1: an illness possibly associated with the vaccine, it should be 526 00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:22,960 Speaker 1: somewhat reassuring to the public that the process is working 527 00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:27,400 Speaker 1: as it should that UM we are seeing the process 528 00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:29,560 Speaker 1: play out the way we wanted to to ensure both 529 00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:33,240 Speaker 1: the safety and the efficacy of the vaccine. Lauren. We 530 00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:36,600 Speaker 1: also saw the news today that China has injected you know, 531 00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:41,520 Speaker 1: thousands of its citizens with potential vaccines. On the one hand, 532 00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:44,040 Speaker 1: you know, you think this might be a great thing. 533 00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:46,120 Speaker 1: We might find that all of these work. On the 534 00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:49,600 Speaker 1: other hand, sort of wondered, did these people volunteer? How 535 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:51,920 Speaker 1: does how does the doctor feel about reading an article 536 00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:56,520 Speaker 1: like that? You know, I think that what's happening in China, Uh, 537 00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,160 Speaker 1: we need a lot more information about the process that 538 00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:02,320 Speaker 1: the vaccine went through. UM about there, if if it 539 00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:04,600 Speaker 1: has gone through phase three data phase three, and what 540 00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:07,440 Speaker 1: their data look like. UM. I think things like this 541 00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:10,240 Speaker 1: always worrying me when UM, you know, if the US 542 00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:12,520 Speaker 1: is stepping out of being a global contributor to the 543 00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:16,080 Speaker 1: vaccine process, Um, other countries will step in and that 544 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:21,320 Speaker 1: process will happen without US, And so we we want 545 00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:23,560 Speaker 1: the US to be involved in this process so that 546 00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:27,160 Speaker 1: there is not a gap and subpar vaccines are filled 547 00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:30,960 Speaker 1: in that gap. And UM, you know, I don't know 548 00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:34,280 Speaker 1: if the consent process that we would use here was 549 00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:37,720 Speaker 1: used in China. I haven't seen sort of the granular 550 00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:41,360 Speaker 1: information about what happened there. But I think you always 551 00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:44,840 Speaker 1: worry if a vaccine is being pushed on citizens without 552 00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:47,960 Speaker 1: the process of either informed consent or the you know, 553 00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:51,640 Speaker 1: full licensure of a safe and effective product. UM that 554 00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:54,800 Speaker 1: that leads to problems, and it is an is an 555 00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:59,160 Speaker 1: ethical problem in and of itself. So, Lauren at the 556 00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:01,600 Speaker 1: Johns Hopkins, you know, versually one of the leading medical 557 00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:05,560 Speaker 1: facilities in the world. As we think about the potential 558 00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:09,440 Speaker 1: for a second phase in the fall or the winter time, 559 00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:12,600 Speaker 1: how much do you think the healthcare community at large 560 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:14,840 Speaker 1: has learned? Is it better prepared, does it know what 561 00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:17,680 Speaker 1: works what doesn't work? Is there a sense that we 562 00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:22,680 Speaker 1: won't see those terrible scenes of hospitals being overrun. I 563 00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:24,880 Speaker 1: think that's definitely the hope. We do not want to 564 00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:27,600 Speaker 1: see that in the fall. UM We have learned so 565 00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:30,360 Speaker 1: much both about the virus and how to manage it 566 00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:33,880 Speaker 1: when it infects people, UM, how to better take care 567 00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:37,320 Speaker 1: of patients to fall ill um and and how to 568 00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:40,320 Speaker 1: move them to the hospital system more safely and more 569 00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:44,400 Speaker 1: effectively to ensure that we maintain that capacity. We're still 570 00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:47,680 Speaker 1: struggling with the testing piece. We still need a strategic 571 00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:51,200 Speaker 1: and systematic approach to testing across this country, which can 572 00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:54,960 Speaker 1: only help um our ability to manage patients. And we 573 00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:57,520 Speaker 1: do have some concerns that our ppe used of just 574 00:31:57,600 --> 00:31:59,880 Speaker 1: going to go back up and that you know, respiratory 575 00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:02,720 Speaker 1: iris season, and we have to get a hold on 576 00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:06,719 Speaker 1: how we're going to restock and um box fill our 577 00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:10,320 Speaker 1: PPE usage if we if that need creeps back up. 578 00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:12,880 Speaker 1: That is a number one priorities we enter into this 579 00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:17,040 Speaker 1: well respiratory virus Briefly, Lauren, does the country still have 580 00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:21,920 Speaker 1: shortages of things like respirators and PPE equipment? Um? I 581 00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:26,560 Speaker 1: think that we are. I've heard anecdotal reports of shortages. 582 00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:30,320 Speaker 1: I think we have a disparate sort of of PPE 583 00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:33,800 Speaker 1: um and respirators and things like that. So UM, we 584 00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:35,640 Speaker 1: have to keep we have to have a national level 585 00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:38,160 Speaker 1: view of this so that we can have resources around 586 00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:40,920 Speaker 1: to where they're needed at any given time. And it 587 00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:45,200 Speaker 1: should be leveraging the Defense Production Act to improve PPE 588 00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:49,600 Speaker 1: access in places where there are shortages. Lauren Soer, thank 589 00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:52,280 Speaker 1: you so much for joining us. As always, we appreciate 590 00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:55,640 Speaker 1: your time, You appreciate your insights. Laurence Soer Sistant Professor 591 00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:59,800 Speaker 1: of Emergency Medicine at Johns Hopkins UH University. We should 592 00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:01,960 Speaker 1: also note that the Bloomberg School of Public Health at 593 00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:04,800 Speaker 1: Johns Hopkins is supported by Michael Bloomberg, founder at Bloomberg 594 00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:08,400 Speaker 1: LP and Bloomberg philanthropies. Um, you just hope, Bonnie, that 595 00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:12,040 Speaker 1: as from a healthcare facility perspective, we're in a better 596 00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:14,520 Speaker 1: spot than we were in back in March. Yeah, and 597 00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:16,600 Speaker 1: very definitely. I mean, we've spoken to the CEOs of 598 00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:19,760 Speaker 1: hospital systems and they've said that it's true that they 599 00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:22,200 Speaker 1: know more now, they can triage better, and that they 600 00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:24,320 Speaker 1: are in a better way. But you just hope they're 601 00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:27,200 Speaker 1: not taxed even at half the level they were taxed at. 602 00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:32,360 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe 603 00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:35,440 Speaker 1: and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever a 604 00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:38,800 Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm on Twitter 605 00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:41,360 Speaker 1: at Bonnie Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter 606 00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:44,280 Speaker 1: at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch 607 00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:45,880 Speaker 1: us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio