WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2019 NFL MegaPod Week 1 Preview 0:00:03.400 --> 0:00:12.200 Check it on man Now Down Now Thursday morning, September 0:00:13.200 --> 0:00:17.280 seams of Beating the Book podcast. It is the Megapod 0:00:17.800 --> 0:00:22.160 Skill Alexander Brand new season season number nine with an 0:00:22.160 --> 0:00:25.040 all new cast. By the way, Uh, for those who 0:00:25.239 --> 0:00:28.920 are looking for Marco and Ace, they have taken their 0:00:28.920 --> 0:00:31.600 talents to South Beach, So in case you missed the 0:00:31.600 --> 0:00:34.960 stuff on social media, they're doing their own thing. They 0:00:35.159 --> 0:00:36.920 have their own company and they wanted to do the 0:00:36.960 --> 0:00:39.479 podcast over there and I thought it was better for 0:00:39.520 --> 0:00:41.519 their brand, So that's where you can find them. I 0:00:41.640 --> 0:00:46.000 wish them all the best. However, I'm very excited to 0:00:46.000 --> 0:00:48.319 have these two gentlemen on the show this year. You 0:00:48.360 --> 0:00:50.720 may know them if you're a Visa listener. If you 0:00:50.880 --> 0:00:52.800 do not listen to Visa, perhaps you know one of 0:00:52.840 --> 0:00:57.360 these guys from the Showtime docuseries Action on my Left. 0:00:57.480 --> 0:00:59.840 Ladies and gentlemen, the Great Todd wishing of hello to 0:01:00.200 --> 0:01:04.119 thank you for doing this. It's my pleasure Gil obviously. Um, 0:01:04.160 --> 0:01:06.440 you know this is a nice little thing that came 0:01:06.480 --> 0:01:10.440 out of the Gill and Todd Show onst So the 0:01:10.480 --> 0:01:12.720 Gill and Todd Show not actually a thing and all 0:01:12.800 --> 0:01:15.920 my right. Uh. He is the conciliary to Derek Stevens. 0:01:15.959 --> 0:01:19.760 Over at Circus Sports, they're running a phenomenal football handicapping 0:01:19.800 --> 0:01:23.640 contest which actually has some application to something very timely 0:01:23.640 --> 0:01:26.000 in the news right now, which we'll get into momentarily. 0:01:26.160 --> 0:01:28.520 What is your exact title over at Circle, Mike Well, 0:01:28.560 --> 0:01:32.039 the exact title is Vice President of Operations, Vice President 0:01:32.040 --> 0:01:34.280 of Operations. Over there at Circuits Sports they run the 0:01:34.360 --> 0:01:36.640 d Golden Gate and of course the brand new Circuit 0:01:36.640 --> 0:01:40.240 Casino which is set to open late twenty with a 0:01:40.319 --> 0:01:43.360 brand new UH Spanking News sports book in Circle A 0:01:43.400 --> 0:01:46.839 Shangri lav Sports Books in December of Mike Palm pump 0:01:46.880 --> 0:01:49.279 that you can join us before we get into anything, guys, 0:01:49.800 --> 0:01:52.800 This Antonio Open Brown news is happening right now as 0:01:52.800 --> 0:01:57.440 we're recording this podcast. Adam Schefter reporting on his Twitter 0:01:57.800 --> 0:02:00.400 that this has gotten ugly all of a sudden between 0:02:00.440 --> 0:02:03.680 the Raiders and Antonio Brown. Antonio Brown clearly not the 0:02:03.680 --> 0:02:07.520 brightest bulb. Antonio Brown posted the fine letter he got fined, 0:02:07.680 --> 0:02:10.600 posted that fine letter on social media that Raiders GM 0:02:10.639 --> 0:02:13.560 Mike Mayock sent him. It led to an exchange. We're 0:02:13.600 --> 0:02:16.400 not sure how physical it got, but it's now leading 0:02:16.400 --> 0:02:19.000 to further discipline. Adam Schefter says it's not going away 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:21.520 anytime soon, and he goes on to say now and 0:02:21.560 --> 0:02:23.800 this is the tweet that really gets everybody. This is 0:02:23.800 --> 0:02:26.399 his latest tweet. There are those around the league who 0:02:26.400 --> 0:02:29.880 now believe the Raiders could suspend Antonio Brown with the 0:02:29.919 --> 0:02:32.080 idea of trying to avoid the thirty point one to 0:02:32.240 --> 0:02:34.800 five million dollars of guaranteed money in his contract, which 0:02:34.800 --> 0:02:40.160 obviously would end his time in Oakland before it even begins. Wow, 0:02:40.200 --> 0:02:42.880 Oakland and Denver of course in a virtual pick him 0:02:42.880 --> 0:02:45.600 of a game. Well, actually Denver by two and a half. Now, 0:02:45.720 --> 0:02:47.120 the one thing I want to relate this to the 0:02:47.120 --> 0:02:50.080 circuit contest, Mike go real quick off the bat. Here's 0:02:50.120 --> 0:02:53.239 the difference between other contests like the Westgate that post 0:02:53.320 --> 0:02:57.480 their lines on Wednesday afternoon. You don't post him till Thursday. 0:02:57.840 --> 0:03:00.840 Already a more accurate line per HAPs from you guys 0:03:00.880 --> 0:03:03.680 now because of this. Yeah, we we went all the 0:03:03.720 --> 0:03:07.120 way from from Raiders one going to pose Raiders one 0:03:07.880 --> 0:03:10.239 uh to Broncos two and a half for the contest. 0:03:10.280 --> 0:03:13.680 So we we you know, we supposed that the difference 0:03:13.720 --> 0:03:17.560 between Wednesday afternoon Thursday morning might come into play several 0:03:17.600 --> 0:03:20.000 times during the year. Well with this bombshell, it already 0:03:20.080 --> 0:03:22.120 is a big factor in week one. It's amazing that 0:03:22.120 --> 0:03:24.280 it's happened at week one. All right, gentlemen, you guys 0:03:24.360 --> 0:03:26.600 ready to do this? The new podcast cast gives us 0:03:26.600 --> 0:03:28.920 an opportunity to do a new format also on the show, 0:03:29.000 --> 0:03:30.359 So we're gonna do this a little differently. And for 0:03:30.400 --> 0:03:32.240 those wondering, are we're gonna have a rotating guest on 0:03:32.280 --> 0:03:34.960 some weeks, Yes, we absolutely will. We will have that 0:03:35.360 --> 0:03:38.280 as well. Last thing about the Raiders. John Pruten was 0:03:38.320 --> 0:03:41.200 just heard saying, man, we're gonna run the whist bone 0:03:41.240 --> 0:03:44.000 we lost for best receiver knocked on wood if you're 0:03:44.040 --> 0:03:48.800 with me, which got very tiring on Hard Knocks this year. 0:03:48.840 --> 0:03:50.240 By the way, it was the worst season of Hard 0:03:50.280 --> 0:03:52.840 Knocks ever. Can we just establish that was the worst 0:03:52.840 --> 0:03:55.800 thing ever? Episode five with a whimper, that's how it 0:03:55.840 --> 0:03:58.120 went out. Let's begin first before we get into your 0:03:58.160 --> 0:04:00.800 best best of the week. Thursday night for ball Green 0:04:00.840 --> 0:04:03.680 Bay at Chicago. This line was about four most of 0:04:03.720 --> 0:04:07.920 the summer in Chicago by three in this ballgame, do 0:04:08.040 --> 0:04:11.560 either of you have any preflop play on this ball game, 0:04:11.560 --> 0:04:15.000 either side or total. Mike, start with you. I do I. 0:04:15.000 --> 0:04:18.520 I played the first half under twenty three. I sat 0:04:18.640 --> 0:04:21.000 here thinking about this game for the last few weeks, 0:04:21.000 --> 0:04:22.680 thinking if I was going to take the Bears if 0:04:22.680 --> 0:04:26.360 it came down to three. But I just think I'll 0:04:26.360 --> 0:04:29.039 tell you one for Gil and Todd. I'm not impressed 0:04:29.080 --> 0:04:32.520 with the body of work of Fleur. I mean, I 0:04:32.560 --> 0:04:35.960 still can't get over that game at home against Baltimore 0:04:36.000 --> 0:04:38.520 last year where they went one for ten on third downs. 0:04:39.120 --> 0:04:41.320 Now you couple that with Rogers, who has to put 0:04:41.360 --> 0:04:45.560 in a new system for the first time in thirteen years, UM, 0:04:45.800 --> 0:04:50.720 very little reps for the first team offense in the preseason. UM. 0:04:50.960 --> 0:04:53.320 And combine that with the fact that the Bears are 0:04:53.360 --> 0:04:55.719 one of the worst teams in explosive plays of twenty 0:04:55.800 --> 0:04:58.080 yards or more. I think you might see a slow 0:04:58.160 --> 0:05:00.480 start to this game. So I thought, I usually try 0:05:00.520 --> 0:05:02.840 to make a total on every game. I put this 0:05:02.880 --> 0:05:05.080 total right around forty two and a half forty three, 0:05:05.120 --> 0:05:07.000 So I think there's some value trying to go under 0:05:07.040 --> 0:05:08.680 twenty three in the first half. I think we might 0:05:08.720 --> 0:05:11.359 get a couple stale series right off the bat. I 0:05:11.400 --> 0:05:13.240 like that, By the way, game total forty six and 0:05:13.279 --> 0:05:15.160 a half. Just to clarify, but Mike making a play 0:05:15.200 --> 0:05:17.599 on the first half under uh, Todd, anything for you? 0:05:17.600 --> 0:05:19.200 And when I say it's three points, by the way, 0:05:19.200 --> 0:05:24.440 it's three with extra juice. Consensus about minus one minus juice. 0:05:25.120 --> 0:05:28.000 That's pretty much what it is across the board. Anything 0:05:28.040 --> 0:05:32.119 for you, Todd. I strong lean if it's minus three. 0:05:32.760 --> 0:05:35.520 They're basically saying that the Bears and the Packers are 0:05:35.560 --> 0:05:38.760 even teams, and the home field advantages three and soldier field, 0:05:39.279 --> 0:05:42.640 and I see how the Bears and the Packers are 0:05:42.760 --> 0:05:45.080 equal teams. Just look at last year. Because I know 0:05:45.120 --> 0:05:47.720 it's Aaron Rodgers, and I know it's scary to lay 0:05:47.800 --> 0:05:52.240 points against Aaron Rodgers, but um, if anything, I would 0:05:52.320 --> 0:05:56.040 lean to the Bears minus three. Let us begin with Sunday. 0:05:56.040 --> 0:05:58.800 By the way, I have no play whatsoever. Thanks for asking, guys. 0:05:58.839 --> 0:06:01.120 Appreciate it that you care so deeply. I have no 0:06:01.200 --> 0:06:03.080 play on this game. I'm gonna end game. I'm gonna 0:06:03.080 --> 0:06:06.640 watch it, and uh, perhaps bet while it's going on. 0:06:07.040 --> 0:06:09.039 As far as the rest of the weekend is concerned, 0:06:09.080 --> 0:06:11.320 let's do our best bets. We do have the final 0:06:11.360 --> 0:06:13.440 two questions that we always have coming up at the 0:06:13.560 --> 0:06:15.279 end of the show, we have our teaser of the 0:06:15.279 --> 0:06:18.320 week coming up as well, But let's just do best bets. Mike, 0:06:18.400 --> 0:06:21.560 we start with you your single best bet of the weekend, Sir. 0:06:21.920 --> 0:06:25.520 I like the Giants catching a touchdown at at Jerry 0:06:25.560 --> 0:06:27.240 World Is. I think this is going to be an 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:32.120 improved version of the Giants um Ezekiel hold out, I 0:06:32.160 --> 0:06:35.160 think may have an effect on the Cowboys, and I'm 0:06:35.160 --> 0:06:37.719 not sure that that that this Cowboys team, although the 0:06:37.760 --> 0:06:41.480 offensive line should be better this year, is that markedly 0:06:41.800 --> 0:06:44.560 much better in a division game. It's really hard to 0:06:44.720 --> 0:06:47.000 lay a touchdown in a division game. And I think 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:50.160 the Giants here are actually a team that's uh that 0:06:50.480 --> 0:06:52.640 could could could stay in this game late and have 0:06:52.720 --> 0:06:54.400 a chance at an upset if you look at the 0:06:54.440 --> 0:06:57.080 history of the series as well, and just take a 0:06:57.080 --> 0:06:59.719 look at the time since it's been Dack versus Eli, 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:02.839 the Giants have traditionally played the Cowboys close, even in 0:07:02.839 --> 0:07:05.479 these opening games, which are usually a Texas stadium. So 0:07:05.760 --> 0:07:08.480 I grabbed up the seven here with the g Yeah, 0:07:08.520 --> 0:07:10.280 and you can find some seven and a half's out 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:12.400 there as well, Like seven and a hook is pretty 0:07:12.480 --> 0:07:15.400 rampidtly available plus seven and a half minus one, ten's 0:07:15.440 --> 0:07:17.760 out there some minus one fifteen. I'm kind of with 0:07:17.880 --> 0:07:20.440 you there, as as barish as I am on the Giants. 0:07:20.920 --> 0:07:23.240 They might not be that bad. This is one of 0:07:23.280 --> 0:07:25.880 these NFC East games where in past years this would 0:07:25.880 --> 0:07:28.760 be an automatic three on the line. Such a poor 0:07:28.800 --> 0:07:31.200 opinion folks have of the Giants that you're catching seven 0:07:31.280 --> 0:07:32.840 or seven and a half. Let's put it this way. 0:07:32.880 --> 0:07:36.000 I would not rush to lay the points with the Cowboys. Todd, 0:07:36.040 --> 0:07:38.120 what is your best bet this week? But I would 0:07:38.160 --> 0:07:41.640 agree with you. How can you lay seven alf the Cowboys? 0:07:41.680 --> 0:07:44.000 They're not a team anyways that that wins by margins. 0:07:44.120 --> 0:07:47.360 They run too much to win by a big margin. 0:07:47.440 --> 0:07:50.200 But the best bet that I have is the Tennessee 0:07:50.240 --> 0:07:53.360 Titans plus five and a half. I know there's all 0:07:53.400 --> 0:07:56.000 the Browns hype. I know the Browns up, you know, 0:07:56.200 --> 0:07:58.760 basically twenty two Hall of Fame or starting on offensive 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:04.800 here and coming of Jesus and Baker may feel at 0:08:04.840 --> 0:08:09.160 the quarterback position, but I just don't buy it until 0:08:09.200 --> 0:08:11.600 I see it. Freddie Kitchens is the Coats. What do 0:08:11.640 --> 0:08:15.320 we know about Freddie Kitchen? Nothing? Zero point zero do 0:08:15.400 --> 0:08:18.080 we know about Freddie Kitchen, so I am not buying it. 0:08:18.200 --> 0:08:22.160 The Tennessee Titans are well coached. They won some games 0:08:22.200 --> 0:08:24.560 on the road last year, including a game at Dallas. 0:08:24.880 --> 0:08:27.840 I can remember. They usually keep you in the game. 0:08:27.920 --> 0:08:30.800 Their defensive kind of team team they don't you know. 0:08:30.960 --> 0:08:33.080 It's not a light them up, you know, crazy four 0:08:33.080 --> 0:08:34.960 board type of game, so it could easily be a 0:08:35.000 --> 0:08:37.760 tight game. I like the Tennessee Tits, like the Tennessee 0:08:38.320 --> 0:08:41.600 plus five and a half my best bet. And again 0:08:41.679 --> 0:08:44.319 we'll we'll keep track of these for the for the 0:08:44.400 --> 0:08:46.840 duration of the year. That should be fun. I'm sure 0:08:46.840 --> 0:08:48.160 we won't hear the end of that if it goes 0:08:48.200 --> 0:08:51.640 bad or or or if it goes good for Todd, 0:08:52.440 --> 0:08:58.559 that's true, that would be the other scenario. I gets 0:08:58.840 --> 0:09:02.240 to take shots me and say that I won't hear 0:09:02.280 --> 0:09:04.760 the end of it. Meanwhile, he starts winningning he gets 0:09:04.760 --> 0:09:08.199 his whole like clan palm readers or whoever else clan 0:09:08.480 --> 0:09:11.840 that he's got. It'll talk him up. Let me just 0:09:11.880 --> 0:09:14.000 tell everybody right now, Todd is in l A for 0:09:14.040 --> 0:09:17.400 this particular episode. Todd's audio will be better from here 0:09:17.440 --> 0:09:20.480 on out. I just want to point that outside any 0:09:20.559 --> 0:09:22.520 better right now? Yeah, a little better right there? I think, 0:09:23.160 --> 0:09:25.800 all right, my my best bet. I'm actually taking the 0:09:25.880 --> 0:09:29.480 Cincinnati Bengals plus the nine and a half against the 0:09:29.480 --> 0:09:34.160 Seattle Seahawks. I get it, Seattle's got Jadeveon Clowney Seattle, 0:09:34.360 --> 0:09:40.280 known for fine prowess at home in Seattle. But I 0:09:40.320 --> 0:09:43.160 don't get nine and a half here at all with 0:09:43.400 --> 0:09:48.240 no real weapons, now that Doug Baldwin has left no 0:09:48.360 --> 0:09:50.640 real weapons on the outside, that we can really be 0:09:50.760 --> 0:09:53.440 truly fearful of Tyler Lockett, good ball player, but I 0:09:53.440 --> 0:09:55.840 don't know that without Baldwin to sort of take away 0:09:55.880 --> 0:09:57.760 attention from him, I'm not sure. That's the thing we 0:09:57.760 --> 0:10:00.560 don't know about DK mccalf. We don't know what's happening 0:10:00.600 --> 0:10:03.160 there with his weapons. I don't know that they can 0:10:03.200 --> 0:10:06.600 score enough points to cover nine and a half that easily. 0:10:07.040 --> 0:10:09.800 And I actually think Joe Mixing and crew do some 0:10:09.880 --> 0:10:12.520 things on offense even without a j Green. Give me 0:10:12.600 --> 0:10:15.000 the nine and a half points site unseen on these 0:10:15.080 --> 0:10:17.880 two teams. Like I get the Eagles being ten point 0:10:17.920 --> 0:10:20.440 favorites against the Redskins. That's a lot of points. But 0:10:20.480 --> 0:10:23.360 I think the Redskins are are really bad at football. 0:10:23.440 --> 0:10:25.640 I don't know that we know this about the Bengals yet, 0:10:25.679 --> 0:10:27.720 so I'll take the nine and a half as just 0:10:27.760 --> 0:10:30.280 a first salvo of the season. And again these are 0:10:30.280 --> 0:10:32.839 all site unseen obviously, but give me the nine and 0:10:32.880 --> 0:10:34.360 a half. I don't know how you guys feel about that. 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:37.840 You know, it's interesting because I'm sorry Todd. You know 0:10:37.840 --> 0:10:40.839 it's hard enough looking at you, being next to you 0:10:40.920 --> 0:10:42.760 and looking at you and being able to speak now 0:10:42.800 --> 0:10:47.640 when we're in different places is what more. But it's interesting, Gil, 0:10:47.720 --> 0:10:51.360 because the guy was that for me or for Todd today. 0:10:51.760 --> 0:10:53.880 It's also your experience with him as well, and in 0:10:53.920 --> 0:10:57.559 fact you've already started talking. But um, the boys that 0:10:57.640 --> 0:10:59.720 Circuits Sports made this eight and a half on the 0:10:59.720 --> 0:11:02.760 cod test. I thought that was pretty interesting. Obviously they 0:11:02.880 --> 0:11:05.440 shade the game the way you do, Gil, Yeah, so interesting, 0:11:05.720 --> 0:11:08.080 so they shade eight and a half? Interesting? How so 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:11.440 your lines on in the contest now now in the 0:11:11.480 --> 0:11:13.760 sports book? Is it also eight and a half in 0:11:13.800 --> 0:11:15.800 the sports book right now? The last I looked at 0:11:15.920 --> 0:11:18.200 was nine, But they may be anticipating it goes to 0:11:18.240 --> 0:11:21.160 eight and a half. Obviously, these contest lines are also 0:11:21.200 --> 0:11:23.880 an anticipation of where where the live line is going 0:11:23.960 --> 0:11:26.960 to end up, absolutely, because they're static and so you 0:11:27.040 --> 0:11:29.240 have to have some sort of anticipation on it. By 0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:31.720 the way, I just want to I just wanna say 0:11:31.760 --> 0:11:33.520 that I agree with you on that since it was 0:11:33.520 --> 0:11:35.480 almost my best bet of the week. All right, Well, 0:11:35.480 --> 0:11:37.280 if it's your second or third, well we'll hear about it. Two. 0:11:37.320 --> 0:11:39.480 I like it. I like the consensus Mike number two 0:11:39.520 --> 0:11:41.920 for you. Yeah, maybe this is a square play, but 0:11:42.000 --> 0:11:44.600 I I at the Lions. I liked the two and 0:11:44.600 --> 0:11:46.760 a half. I wish I'd got in it earlier, but 0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:48.040 I don't want to wait for it to get to 0:11:48.120 --> 0:11:51.720 three because it's going to three. Um. I just think 0:11:51.720 --> 0:11:56.400 that this Cardinals team and Cliff Klingsbury way over his head, Um, 0:11:57.120 --> 0:11:59.000 this is a great spot for the lines. I think 0:11:59.040 --> 0:12:03.000 going down there Arizona's defense. As much as we want 0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:06.320 to talk about kings Burry in the offense and Kyler Murray, 0:12:06.559 --> 0:12:09.840 take a look at that defense that that defense is putred. 0:12:10.240 --> 0:12:12.400 I think the Lions will have their best rushing attack 0:12:12.440 --> 0:12:14.120 that they've had in years, and I look for the 0:12:14.160 --> 0:12:16.640 Lions to be able to control the ball here and 0:12:16.640 --> 0:12:19.040 when this game pretty comfortably on the road. So my 0:12:19.080 --> 0:12:21.280 second best bet is the Detroit Lions laying two and 0:12:21.360 --> 0:12:23.480 a half. Let me ask you, when you saw Jalen Hurts, 0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:25.720 and I know it was against Houston. Houston is awful 0:12:25.760 --> 0:12:28.280 on defense, But when you saw Jalen Hurts put up 0:12:28.679 --> 0:12:33.160 Techmobile numbers in Oklahoma's opener against Houston, was there a 0:12:33.240 --> 0:12:37.200 little part of you that thought about Kyler Murray and 0:12:37.280 --> 0:12:39.440 that sort of said to yourself, I know, Kyler's fun 0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:40.960 and he had a great year, and he was and 0:12:40.960 --> 0:12:45.200 he was absolutely tremendous, But did it minimize him at 0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:48.559 all for you? That you can now firmly establish from 0:12:48.559 --> 0:12:51.760 Baker Mayfield to Kyler Murray to perhaps even Jalen Hurts, 0:12:52.360 --> 0:12:54.880 who we've never seen do this at Alabama right, that 0:12:55.040 --> 0:12:58.480 maybe the Cardinals did not make the right pick with 0:12:58.520 --> 0:13:01.360 the first pick of the draft. It actually you you 0:13:01.440 --> 0:13:03.360 bring up a point that I thought about because I 0:13:03.400 --> 0:13:06.440 had a strong feeling going into that Sunday night game 0:13:07.280 --> 0:13:09.640 that that Hurts was not going to be able to 0:13:09.679 --> 0:13:12.720 adapt to this system just because of the way Saban 0:13:12.800 --> 0:13:17.240 plays is compared to to Oklahoma and not in a 0:13:17.320 --> 0:13:21.520 hurry up and straight ahead running and dropped back, and boy, 0:13:21.559 --> 0:13:23.880 he just picked up like like where Murray left off. 0:13:24.400 --> 0:13:27.400 And so it does sort of diminish what Murray did 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:30.199 if anybody can step into it, especially somebody that spent 0:13:30.400 --> 0:13:35.679 two years being successful in a totally polar opposite system. Yeah, 0:13:35.800 --> 0:13:38.960 it definitely, at the very least, I think it was 0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:41.200 valid that the thought comes up, and we'll see if 0:13:41.200 --> 0:13:43.800 it happens. You're taken Detroit laying the two and a half. 0:13:43.840 --> 0:13:45.120 I don't think that's square. By the way, where did 0:13:45.120 --> 0:13:46.800 you hear my next pig? Now this is this is 0:13:47.320 --> 0:13:50.240 super square coming up, ladies and gentlemen once again. Todd 0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:55.400 wishnev the star, the bona fide star of Showtime's docuseries Action. Todd, 0:13:55.440 --> 0:13:57.720 by the way, for those who don't know, you were 0:13:57.760 --> 0:14:02.840 the lovable character on Showtimes docuseries Action, you were made 0:14:03.120 --> 0:14:06.079 to look like the everyman that you were just this 0:14:06.120 --> 0:14:08.200 guy in a casino who hangs out every day. By 0:14:08.200 --> 0:14:10.360 the way, that parts true, but that you really didn't 0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:12.720 know what you were doing so much, but fair to 0:14:12.760 --> 0:14:15.320 say that in real life, and I think you display 0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:17.280 this on visa and all the time, that you are 0:14:17.360 --> 0:14:21.000 not only smarter than you were portrayed as but you're 0:14:21.040 --> 0:14:23.040 the smartest guy in the room at all times. Well, 0:14:23.400 --> 0:14:27.000 if I'm not in the room with Mike Palm, he 0:14:27.120 --> 0:14:29.720 may not be the smartest, but he's always the most cerebral. 0:14:32.160 --> 0:14:35.240 That's very we We were doing a lot of inside 0:14:35.320 --> 0:14:37.400 jokes folks for people who listened to the visas and 0:14:37.760 --> 0:14:41.240 uh Gil and Todd show. When I'm on Gil's show, Um, 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:44.400 you know, we have a whole football coach who's very 0:14:44.400 --> 0:14:46.920 physical out there, and you know he's not very cerebral, 0:14:46.960 --> 0:14:50.520 but he's very physical. So anyways, knock on wood if 0:14:50.520 --> 0:14:53.680 you're with me, man, uh, let me just say I can't. 0:14:53.880 --> 0:14:55.360 I don't think I'm gonna be able to stop saying 0:14:55.400 --> 0:14:58.120 that all year. Um. Yeah, we won't get tired of 0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:02.200 that or anything. The different for Mr for miniature Kyler 0:15:02.280 --> 0:15:05.520 Murray is that on the team that he's gonna be on, 0:15:05.840 --> 0:15:08.240 I don't believe they play with an offensive line. And 0:15:08.280 --> 0:15:10.800 on the team that he was on last year, Oklahoma, 0:15:10.920 --> 0:15:13.920 they have a huge offensive line. That could be a 0:15:13.960 --> 0:15:16.000 slight difference. I think that both of you guys are 0:15:16.200 --> 0:15:19.920 are making the point on um, Oklahoma is almost plug 0:15:19.960 --> 0:15:22.520 and play when you got those big hawses up in front. 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:25.360 I think me or Mike could even throw two yards. 0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:28.720 You know, it's like ridiculous. Um. But anyways, back you 0:15:28.760 --> 0:15:31.280 were asking me about the second best bet. Yes, okay, 0:15:31.320 --> 0:15:37.280 I'm gonna go because you already used since you can, 0:15:37.440 --> 0:15:39.680 you can totally use ones that other people have used. 0:15:39.680 --> 0:15:42.960 I want your authentic three best bets. I'm I'm on. 0:15:43.040 --> 0:15:45.560 I'm on the fence on these. I'm gonna do something 0:15:45.720 --> 0:15:49.800 crazy here and I'm gonna go with ten fits magic 0:15:50.240 --> 0:15:54.920 and you're gonna say you and seen are you crazy? 0:15:55.320 --> 0:15:58.160 And yeah, I guess I'm crazy. But let's let's remember 0:15:58.240 --> 0:16:02.520 Ryan Fitzpatrick's usual old pattern. He goes to a new team, 0:16:02.840 --> 0:16:05.960 he plays really well, and then inevitably the three and 0:16:06.040 --> 0:16:09.320 four interception games start. So what if he has the 0:16:09.320 --> 0:16:12.880 same pattern in Miami and Miami's not horrible, I guess 0:16:12.880 --> 0:16:15.840 on defense, and maybe they can stay in the game. 0:16:16.200 --> 0:16:19.760 They've had a whole offseason to watch the Lamar Jackson 0:16:19.840 --> 0:16:23.000 ship on tape, so they could probably you know, get get, 0:16:23.160 --> 0:16:24.920 you know, school them up or coach them up on 0:16:24.960 --> 0:16:27.400 that whole deal. Baltimore is not exactly a team that 0:16:27.440 --> 0:16:30.280 wins by a million anyway. Ways, and in the NFL, 0:16:30.400 --> 0:16:33.280 six points is a lot of points. So I'm gonna go. 0:16:33.440 --> 0:16:35.720 I'm gonna be crazy here. As long as Josh Rosen 0:16:35.800 --> 0:16:37.840 is not in the game, I'm gonna go with Miami 0:16:37.880 --> 0:16:41.560 plus two six. You hate Josh Rosen, You hate him 0:16:42.280 --> 0:16:46.440 like he's thrown too many bad interceptions. Good fellow tribesman 0:16:46.680 --> 0:16:49.400 on the leaflet, Josh Rosen, you hate him? Plus six 0:16:49.400 --> 0:16:51.360 and a half? Home dog? You do? You will not 0:16:51.440 --> 0:16:54.360 go broke betting home dogs. I I do not hate 0:16:54.360 --> 0:16:56.040 that pick. By the way, I do not hate that 0:16:56.120 --> 0:16:58.440 catching six and a half at home for the Dolphins, 0:16:58.480 --> 0:17:01.520 whose season win total is four and a half. How 0:17:01.520 --> 0:17:04.560 many times have we seen fits Magic play well for 0:17:04.640 --> 0:17:08.320 a game or two or even three well. Famously with 0:17:08.359 --> 0:17:11.480 the Bucks, he had a ridiculous September right he was tremendous, 0:17:11.640 --> 0:17:14.080 filling for four yards every week, seemingly. So we'll see 0:17:14.080 --> 0:17:16.080 if that's the case of Miami, who just there were 0:17:16.160 --> 0:17:18.479 four and oh with the Buffalo Bills one year. Remember 0:17:18.520 --> 0:17:20.480 that I do not, but I thank you for reminding 0:17:20.520 --> 0:17:22.040 me that is correct. He was four an o with 0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:25.240 the Bills. They just traded their starting left tackle, Laramie Tunzell, 0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:27.960 their number one wide out, and Kenny Stills, so this 0:17:28.000 --> 0:17:30.399 should be interesting, let's put it that way. My my 0:17:30.520 --> 0:17:33.560 second pick is, uh, if we're using the word square, 0:17:33.640 --> 0:17:36.120 this is about as square as it gets. And this 0:17:36.200 --> 0:17:39.840 is this is like malpractice because this line is only increased. 0:17:39.880 --> 0:17:43.240 So we're doing this Thursday morning before the game. Philadelphia 0:17:43.320 --> 0:17:46.399 is giving ten now to the Washington Redskins. I'm giving it. 0:17:46.640 --> 0:17:49.560 I'm a I'm a lifelong Washington Redskins fan. They are 0:17:49.600 --> 0:17:52.000 not going to be good at football this year. They 0:17:52.040 --> 0:17:55.359 have a credible defense. The goal for the Redskins defense 0:17:55.440 --> 0:17:58.200 is to hold the opponent to seventeen points and hope 0:17:58.200 --> 0:18:01.399 that they're offkins their offense overcome it. I think the 0:18:01.440 --> 0:18:04.200 Eagles are going to the super Bowl. I think Carson 0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:06.679 Wentz is going to have a major bounce back season. 0:18:07.000 --> 0:18:09.159 I just think they're a better football team up and 0:18:09.280 --> 0:18:12.640 down than the Redskins. I will give the ten points. 0:18:12.920 --> 0:18:15.560 I think the Eagles blow out the Redskins in Philly 0:18:15.560 --> 0:18:18.000 on Sunday. How about them apples right there? I might 0:18:18.040 --> 0:18:20.600 mention that game as well. When we get to the teasers, 0:18:20.640 --> 0:18:23.520 gill oh, I like that all right? Um, I want 0:18:23.560 --> 0:18:26.080 to ask you a question, Gil, in reference to Todd's 0:18:26.520 --> 0:18:30.280 Dolphins play do Youth. Do you think that the Dolphins 0:18:31.119 --> 0:18:35.080 are intentionally tanking? Yes, by if people have trouble with 0:18:35.160 --> 0:18:37.840 the word tanking, so let me define what I mean 0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:41.600 by that. I think they're absolutely tanking based on what 0:18:41.680 --> 0:18:43.679 my definition is of the word tanking, which is not 0:18:43.720 --> 0:18:46.239 a bad word, by the way. So I think they 0:18:46.280 --> 0:18:49.640 are intentionally doing a Houston Astro Chicago Cubs thing right 0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:52.959 where they're stripping it down. They are going to go 0:18:53.080 --> 0:18:56.080 with youth and low cost and then they're gonna try 0:18:56.119 --> 0:18:58.679 to build it up. So if that's the definition of 0:18:58.720 --> 0:19:02.159 modern day tanking and respect, then I believe they absolutely are. 0:19:02.200 --> 0:19:05.960 You I don't understand if they're going to do that, 0:19:06.200 --> 0:19:09.120 why they don't play Rosen. I agree, you're trying. If 0:19:09.119 --> 0:19:11.879 you're trying to build a team for three years from now, 0:19:12.040 --> 0:19:14.639 then once you want to get this kid the work 0:19:14.760 --> 0:19:16.919 over that stretch, I would think. So that's where it 0:19:16.920 --> 0:19:19.600 doesn't make sense to me agree with that, by the way, 0:19:19.680 --> 0:19:21.240 and you know who else, I don't understand why they're 0:19:21.240 --> 0:19:23.960 not playing the rookie quarterback. Why are the Giants bothering 0:19:24.000 --> 0:19:26.960 playing Eli Manning at all, what's that? Like? What is 0:19:27.000 --> 0:19:29.200 what's the point of that? And I think Daniel Jones 0:19:29.280 --> 0:19:32.520 for all the uh the crap that he got for 0:19:32.600 --> 0:19:35.199 the Giants drafting him so early, none of that. And 0:19:35.240 --> 0:19:36.800 I tried to point this out on a numbers game 0:19:36.840 --> 0:19:39.760 at Visa seven and nine Pacific tend to down Eastern 0:19:39.840 --> 0:19:42.920 Money through Friday, serious sex and Channel two four uh 0:19:42.960 --> 0:19:46.760 that that. I think the criticism of Daniel Jones is 0:19:47.000 --> 0:19:48.880 ill found it because none of us know how good 0:19:48.880 --> 0:19:50.560 these guys are gonna be. And by the way, my 0:19:50.600 --> 0:19:53.880 buddy e most successful sports better. I know he loved 0:19:53.960 --> 0:19:56.320 Daniel Jones senior year. In fact, he said, besides Kyler Murray, 0:19:56.359 --> 0:19:58.200 that's the best quarterback in the league or in college. 0:19:58.200 --> 0:20:00.920 Excuse me. We can criticize the Giant for when they 0:20:01.000 --> 0:20:03.760 drafted him, because the draft is a game after all. 0:20:04.000 --> 0:20:06.440 Maybe they didn't play the game correctly, but it wasn't 0:20:06.440 --> 0:20:08.520 a referendum on Daniel Jones. I don't understand why the 0:20:08.520 --> 0:20:10.560 Giants don't play Hi from the beginning. I agree with 0:20:10.600 --> 0:20:13.119 you there, and I go back to when the Cowboys 0:20:13.160 --> 0:20:14.879 drafted Akman. I mean they put him in there and 0:20:14.960 --> 0:20:17.240 let him take his lumps on and one in fifteen year. 0:20:17.920 --> 0:20:19.960 I mean, were they going to try to protect him 0:20:19.960 --> 0:20:22.639 and stay with Steve Tulure or the guys like that, 0:20:22.720 --> 0:20:24.919 you know, I mean you have to you have to 0:20:24.960 --> 0:20:26.840 let him get in there and play and learn the game, 0:20:27.000 --> 0:20:29.360 learned the NFL game and the speed that it's at 0:20:29.400 --> 0:20:33.720 in the complexity of the Are you talking about Steve Burlin? Yeah, 0:20:34.200 --> 0:20:36.359 Steve Walsh was also on that roster then, wasn't he. 0:20:36.440 --> 0:20:39.280 There were many Steves that were backup quarterman. He was 0:20:39.320 --> 0:20:43.000 talking about Steve Burlin anyways, trying to get the Notre 0:20:43.080 --> 0:20:45.120 Dame guys in Do you know who the Cowboys beat 0:20:45.160 --> 0:20:49.200 that year? Yes? The Washington Redskins on a Sunday night. 0:20:49.880 --> 0:20:53.680 Doug Williams by the way, talking about the young quarterback. 0:20:54.000 --> 0:20:56.600 If I could bet at circa a future who will 0:20:56.640 --> 0:20:58.439 have the better career and we can come up with 0:20:58.480 --> 0:21:02.120 some metric on careers, but I will take Daniel Jones 0:21:02.680 --> 0:21:06.600 minus one thirty five over Josh Rosen all day long. 0:21:08.680 --> 0:21:11.560 You're you're such an anti semit side. What is going 0:21:11.600 --> 0:21:14.239 on with you with Courter? Ever since Mike WERKOVICI did 0:21:14.280 --> 0:21:15.840 it to me in the Holme Kipper Master and that 0:21:16.640 --> 0:21:18.840 you didn't you didn't even know he was Jewish? Then 0:21:19.680 --> 0:21:23.160 that's right. That shows that just shows you how how 0:21:23.320 --> 0:21:26.280 how powerful it is. Well, we'll have to tell the 0:21:26.480 --> 0:21:29.359 youme Kipper massacre story on a subsequent podcast. You can 0:21:29.400 --> 0:21:31.760 also get it on on my pin tweet at my Twitter. 0:21:32.080 --> 0:21:34.720 On my first appearance on GIL, I told funny gambling 0:21:34.760 --> 0:21:37.840 stories Kipper massacre from people Single Love? Is it Mike's 0:21:37.840 --> 0:21:40.399 turn again? Last best bet? Mike, Wow, I gotta have 0:21:40.480 --> 0:21:42.879 three best bets. That's how unbelievable. I'm a little more 0:21:42.960 --> 0:21:44.680 just you don't have to if you don't. If if 0:21:44.680 --> 0:21:46.000 two is where you want to end it, we can 0:21:46.040 --> 0:21:49.440 do too. We're just you know, I don't know where 0:21:49.480 --> 0:21:52.320 this line is going to end up, but it seems 0:21:52.440 --> 0:21:56.720 seemingly keep keep going down, keeps going down. Um. I 0:21:57.160 --> 0:22:00.560 know Michael Lombardi talked about the humidity and and I 0:22:00.600 --> 0:22:04.280 know there's concerns about the surrounding circumstances with the hurricane. 0:22:04.320 --> 0:22:07.040 But boy, I think I think the Chiefs are just 0:22:07.119 --> 0:22:09.200 a lot better side here and are gonna still put 0:22:09.280 --> 0:22:11.920 up put up points when they go down to Jacksonville. 0:22:11.960 --> 0:22:15.880 So this number creeps down closer to three. I think 0:22:15.920 --> 0:22:19.120 this game is worth a play if it gets to three. Um. 0:22:19.200 --> 0:22:21.240 With the Chiefs on the road there, I see some 0:22:21.359 --> 0:22:25.399 threes out there in uh some offshore bookmaker five times 0:22:25.440 --> 0:22:28.240 three with extra juice. Um. So it is available to 0:22:28.320 --> 0:22:31.240 some on Kansas City, but it is down there. Did 0:22:31.280 --> 0:22:34.040 you know this? This Jaguarar team was so injured and 0:22:34.080 --> 0:22:36.639 banged up and didn't really get to play, get to 0:22:36.680 --> 0:22:38.919 play together. And Maron said, I'm not playing anybody in 0:22:38.920 --> 0:22:43.200 the preseason because everybody's hurt, so they've had no reps together. Um, 0:22:43.320 --> 0:22:45.560 And I just think the Chiefs are the spot here. 0:22:45.560 --> 0:22:47.080 I know I didn't. I didn't really like to lay 0:22:47.080 --> 0:22:48.880 five five and a half, but as this number has 0:22:48.920 --> 0:22:51.920 come down, I'll lay three when I can get it. Yeah, 0:22:52.000 --> 0:22:53.920 I don't. I don't hate it. I really don't. Todd 0:22:54.080 --> 0:22:56.560 number three. Am I allowed to do a total or 0:22:56.560 --> 0:22:58.480 doesn't have to be Yeah, no, you can do a total. 0:22:58.600 --> 0:23:01.640 Do whatever you want, man. I think that the New 0:23:01.680 --> 0:23:08.520 England Patriots versus the Pittsburgh Stiller's is a great under. Um. 0:23:08.600 --> 0:23:13.000 If you remember they played under fifty. The New England 0:23:13.000 --> 0:23:15.680 Patriots really turned into a different kind of team late 0:23:15.720 --> 0:23:18.080 in the season last year, kind of became ground and 0:23:18.119 --> 0:23:21.600 pound and play good defense. I think people are sleeping 0:23:21.600 --> 0:23:24.320 on the fact that the Patriots defense is a lot 0:23:24.400 --> 0:23:26.800 better from the end of last season. Now I could 0:23:26.840 --> 0:23:29.639 be totally wrong on this, and the Patriots could do 0:23:29.680 --> 0:23:31.800 their usual first four games where they go to and 0:23:31.840 --> 0:23:35.040 two and lose by thirty to some ridiculous club from Detroit. 0:23:35.359 --> 0:23:37.960 That could happen, as it's happened in many Super Bowl 0:23:38.040 --> 0:23:40.800 years for the Patriots. But with that being said, I 0:23:40.920 --> 0:23:43.480 kind of like the under here. I think the Steelers 0:23:43.480 --> 0:23:46.119 are gonna run the ball. I think the Patriots defense 0:23:46.160 --> 0:23:47.840 is a lot better. I think the Steelers defense is 0:23:47.880 --> 0:23:50.159 going to be better with Bush from uh with Bush 0:23:50.160 --> 0:23:53.879 from Michigan, I think under fifty is probably not a 0:23:53.920 --> 0:23:57.440 bad play. You know. I used to work with twin 0:23:57.520 --> 0:24:00.440 brothers at a startup in San Francisco, and every once 0:24:00.480 --> 0:24:03.200 in a while they would come into work and purposely 0:24:03.320 --> 0:24:06.480 mispronounced words and act like they had pronounced it that 0:24:06.520 --> 0:24:09.480 way the whole time. Patriots was one of those words 0:24:09.560 --> 0:24:11.960 that they once came in and mispronounced. One day, I 0:24:12.000 --> 0:24:13.960 was like, why are you guys naming Patriots? They're like, 0:24:14.040 --> 0:24:17.119 what are you meaning? Reggae was another one that leaps 0:24:17.119 --> 0:24:21.000 to mind the music genre reggae. Reggae, I will do it. 0:24:21.080 --> 0:24:23.240 I will have a correlated play to yours as my 0:24:23.359 --> 0:24:26.119 number three. By the way, Mr Wishnep, I am taking 0:24:26.119 --> 0:24:28.760 the Steelers plus the points. You like the under I'll 0:24:28.760 --> 0:24:31.080 take the Steelers plus the points in that six points 0:24:31.080 --> 0:24:32.879 is a lot. And I, by the way, I have 0:24:32.960 --> 0:24:35.080 bet Big Ben to win the m v P this 0:24:35.160 --> 0:24:38.400 year at one. I think with the absence of the 0:24:38.920 --> 0:24:42.399 now fully exposed headcase that is Antonio Brown, with the 0:24:42.440 --> 0:24:45.480 absence of Levon Bell, I think Ben is on a mission. 0:24:46.119 --> 0:24:48.800 I still think he has great weapons and James Connor 0:24:49.240 --> 0:24:51.800 and Juju, and I think James Washington is gonna be 0:24:51.840 --> 0:24:54.400 a great weapon this year. Uh, in his first real 0:24:54.520 --> 0:24:58.119 season playing meaningful minutes with the Steelers. Give me the 0:24:58.160 --> 0:25:01.439 six points all day long. I will take six Sunday night. 0:25:01.520 --> 0:25:04.520 I think this game is close and that six is 0:25:04.560 --> 0:25:07.840 a gift. So Steelers plus six that would be uh 0:25:08.000 --> 0:25:10.640 my third best bet. So someone out there will keep 0:25:10.680 --> 0:25:12.520 track of this. We will keep track of it as well. 0:25:12.760 --> 0:25:14.760 People in the Twitter verse will absolutely do so, and 0:25:14.760 --> 0:25:18.160 we'll will monitor these sport For today's Beating the Book Podcast, 0:25:18.240 --> 0:25:20.920 comes as always from our friends at Bookmaker dot EU. 0:25:21.040 --> 0:25:23.119 Bookmaker dot E as an industry leader for close to 0:25:23.160 --> 0:25:25.560 thirty years, you should know that by now pro players 0:25:25.560 --> 0:25:28.720 consider them a must because their first to post odds, 0:25:28.760 --> 0:25:31.520 they take the highest limits and most importantly, pride themselves 0:25:31.520 --> 0:25:34.159 on never having kicked out a winning player. That is 0:25:34.320 --> 0:25:36.800 huge in this day and age. 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Don't miss out before we 0:26:12.240 --> 0:26:14.480 get to our favorite teasers of the week in the 0:26:14.520 --> 0:26:18.280 final two questions. Mike Circus Sports Million update for those 0:26:18.320 --> 0:26:22.359 who still have to sign up. So we we we 0:26:22.480 --> 0:26:26.200 crossed over the magical threshold of fifteen hundred to eliminate 0:26:26.240 --> 0:26:29.399 the overlay, and now everything gets plowed back into the 0:26:29.480 --> 0:26:33.480 quarterly winners. For those not familiar, there's really five contest 0:26:33.600 --> 0:26:37.720 for mini contest within a contest, the best record each month, 0:26:37.800 --> 0:26:40.600 which is the four weeks in September, four weeks in October, 0:26:41.040 --> 0:26:44.879 four weeks, November in the five weeks, and December was 0:26:44.920 --> 0:26:49.000 guaranteed fifty thousand. Well, now all these additional entries beyond 0:26:49.040 --> 0:26:52.040 fifteen hundred go back into there. As of ten am 0:26:52.040 --> 0:26:54.200 this morning, we were at one thousand, five hundred and 0:26:54.320 --> 0:26:57.919 fifty four. I think we'll cross sixteen hundred today and 0:26:57.960 --> 0:27:00.479 I'm very sure that we're gonna get to seventeen hundred. 0:27:00.880 --> 0:27:03.320 I've sort of said that as a magical number because 0:27:03.800 --> 0:27:06.600 if you get two hundred above the minimum, that adds 0:27:06.600 --> 0:27:09.479 an extra two hundred thousand to the quarters and split. 0:27:10.080 --> 0:27:13.400 Now the quarters suddenly become a hundred thousand minimum instead 0:27:13.400 --> 0:27:17.080 of fifty thousand. So I'm pretty confident. I think tomorrow 0:27:17.119 --> 0:27:19.080 will be a big day. So you come down to 0:27:19.119 --> 0:27:21.400 the Deer or the Golden Gate here downtown on Freemont 0:27:21.400 --> 0:27:25.080 Street to the Circus Sports Book. It's a quick process minutes, 0:27:25.240 --> 0:27:27.640 gets a registered for the contest, signed up for the app, 0:27:27.640 --> 0:27:29.520 and you can load it up for live wagering as well. 0:27:29.600 --> 0:27:32.040 We can make our picks weekly via the app, which 0:27:32.080 --> 0:27:34.600 is just such a huge thing. Now. Paully Howard, as 0:27:34.680 --> 0:27:36.400 soon as the lines came out at ten am, he's 0:27:36.400 --> 0:27:38.040 sitting here at Long Bar. He just put his five 0:27:38.080 --> 0:27:40.960 picks in. Boom boom, boom, boom boom. He's in nice 0:27:41.040 --> 0:27:43.359 Polly Howard part of the Bitch and Paul follow the 0:27:43.359 --> 0:27:46.359 Money Show at Visa as well. Todd, you were saying something, Yeah, 0:27:46.000 --> 0:27:48.080 the reason I did that the Circle this year was 0:27:48.119 --> 0:27:50.560 because of the quarterly contest. I think it's the most 0:27:51.119 --> 0:27:53.639 I think it's the best innovation in the contest is 0:27:53.680 --> 0:27:56.840 the quarterly. And if you get a hundred thousand for 0:27:56.920 --> 0:28:00.280 each quarterly, I mean that's fantastic. Now I'm like, I'm 0:28:00.280 --> 0:28:03.560 gonna assume if two guys go seventeen and three, they 0:28:03.560 --> 0:28:05.480 each get fifty out of the hundred. Is that I 0:28:06.160 --> 0:28:09.359 just break up, you know, split evenly. I guess, yeah, 0:28:09.359 --> 0:28:11.719 what if eight guys go eighteen and two, then we're 0:28:11.720 --> 0:28:14.000 gonna split a hundred thousand and eight ways, twelve five 0:28:14.080 --> 0:28:17.280 each exactly for the million itself for the top price 0:28:17.359 --> 0:28:20.320 for the contest, though there's like forty eight tiebreakers. We 0:28:20.359 --> 0:28:22.280 want one person to win the contest and win the 0:28:22.320 --> 0:28:26.600 whole million. What's the forty what's tiebreaker? By the way, 0:28:27.040 --> 0:28:32.240 how close you came to your actual jacket side. That's 0:28:32.240 --> 0:28:36.160 a great one. Wow. I hope somebody wins on that. 0:28:36.160 --> 0:28:38.360 It's hard. It's hard for a guy like Todd who's 0:28:38.400 --> 0:28:42.360 losing so rapidly. Yeah, I'm gonna lose that one. Todd 0:28:42.360 --> 0:28:45.360 wishnev losing losing ridiculous amounts of pounds and is he 0:28:45.400 --> 0:28:47.880 will tell you more importantly, his blood sugar level dipping 0:28:48.640 --> 0:28:50.840 you are you are now south of three hundred pounds not? 0:28:51.040 --> 0:28:54.880 Is that right? I'm about two nine three h point 0:28:54.920 --> 0:28:57.400 of reference, I was three thirty three in the action 0:28:57.440 --> 0:29:00.560 Showtime series when you saw my large belly hanging over 0:29:00.560 --> 0:29:04.200 my shorts. One other quick point to mention is you 0:29:04.280 --> 0:29:07.880 called me anti Semitic when you said, uh, I talking 0:29:07.880 --> 0:29:10.560 about quarterbacks. But it's obviously not true, certainly when you 0:29:10.600 --> 0:29:13.240 talk about receivers, because you talked about my favorite jew, 0:29:13.560 --> 0:29:17.120 double jew jew Smith Schuster as a wide receiver. I 0:29:18.120 --> 0:29:21.200 love them. So I may be anti Semitic towards quarterbacks, 0:29:21.200 --> 0:29:23.400 but I love Jewish wide receiver. Yes, for those who 0:29:23.400 --> 0:29:26.280 don't know, Todd By the Way was once an Orthodox Jew. 0:29:26.880 --> 0:29:29.040 Uh so we are. I want people to understand that 0:29:29.080 --> 0:29:31.800 we're not making making serious one of this and now 0:29:31.840 --> 0:29:34.840 you are a renounce to jew that's what you call yourself. Correct. Yes, 0:29:34.880 --> 0:29:36.560 we don't have enough time to go into that right now. 0:29:36.800 --> 0:29:39.960 Different show, whole, different show. We supposed, Gail, we tried 0:29:40.000 --> 0:29:43.520 to suppose what record would it take, yes to win 0:29:43.600 --> 0:29:45.960 the first like to win September. Come up with a 0:29:46.080 --> 0:29:50.520 number I said, I said, eighteen one and one would 0:29:50.520 --> 0:29:55.840 win it. Man eight if eighteen and one, If eighteen 0:29:55.840 --> 0:29:58.520 and two wins that I was right, eighteen eighteen one 0:29:58.520 --> 0:30:00.320 and one would have won it. But I think it's 0:30:00.320 --> 0:30:02.680 gonna be right around eighteen or seventeen is probably going 0:30:02.720 --> 0:30:05.320 to be the magic numbers to get there. And starting 0:30:05.360 --> 0:30:08.480 like the uh the after two weeks at each month, 0:30:08.920 --> 0:30:11.840 we'll we'll start talking about who who's within range. You know, 0:30:11.880 --> 0:30:14.600 who's in the top top thirty that month or top 0:30:14.680 --> 0:30:16.760 fifty that's within a game or two, and it gets 0:30:16.800 --> 0:30:19.680 pretty interesting. You know, there's actually like four races to 0:30:19.840 --> 0:30:22.920 to the winner circle in this contest, and that's that's 0:30:23.000 --> 0:30:25.440 also interesting because you're gonna have to play a game 0:30:25.520 --> 0:30:28.080 theory on the quarterlies while you're is still in the 0:30:28.120 --> 0:30:31.400 main contest. So it brings a lot of interesting strategy 0:30:31.480 --> 0:30:35.040 to what was actually talking about game strategy today. It 0:30:35.240 --> 0:30:38.360 was on the Gil Alexander's show, also called The Numbers 0:30:38.400 --> 0:30:41.440 Game on Visa and Channels four, sometimes also called The 0:30:41.480 --> 0:30:44.840 Gill and Codd Show. But that show he was talking 0:30:44.880 --> 0:30:47.520 about the game theory at the end of the contest, 0:30:47.760 --> 0:30:50.160 where people who are behind by a game or two 0:30:50.160 --> 0:30:52.080 have to try to figure out who the people in 0:30:52.080 --> 0:30:53.960 front of them are gonna take, so they take the 0:30:54.000 --> 0:30:56.200 other side and they have a chance to pick up 0:30:56.200 --> 0:30:57.960 a game, because if they both end up on the 0:30:57.960 --> 0:31:00.280 same side, they can't end up picking up any games. 0:31:00.440 --> 0:31:03.800 And if you're this this contest with the quarterly, let's 0:31:03.800 --> 0:31:07.600 say you're let's say you're fifteen and one going into 0:31:07.640 --> 0:31:10.840 a quarterly, you might have to do some game theory 0:31:11.280 --> 0:31:13.680 even though it's only week four or week eight or 0:31:13.680 --> 0:31:16.120 week twelve, for for example. It's a great point I 0:31:16.160 --> 0:31:18.400 had not. I had actually not thought of that. That's 0:31:18.840 --> 0:31:21.080 a little thing. Yeah, it's a little bit like if 0:31:21.080 --> 0:31:23.360 you have a full game bet and you have a 0:31:23.400 --> 0:31:25.720 halftime as well, and you're trying to use in game 0:31:25.800 --> 0:31:29.600 strategy on your halftime and your and your full game 0:31:29.680 --> 0:31:31.800 or first five in full game in baseball. I've had 0:31:31.800 --> 0:31:33.840 to do this, and it's interesting where you don't want 0:31:33.880 --> 0:31:36.200 to put yourself in a pickle. Mike Palm was talking 0:31:36.240 --> 0:31:38.240 about what it would take to win the quarterlies. Now, 0:31:38.240 --> 0:31:41.480 obviously on a short sample size, you're gonna need seventeen 0:31:41.520 --> 0:31:44.280 eighteen wins to win the quarter but to win the 0:31:44.280 --> 0:31:46.800 whole thing, I think you're gonna need somewhere in the 0:31:46.840 --> 0:31:50.720 neighborhood of seventy. And I'm saying that based on what's 0:31:50.720 --> 0:31:52.920 happened in the past in the Super Bowl, as they've 0:31:52.920 --> 0:31:55.440 had more and more contestants, you've needed a higher and 0:31:55.520 --> 0:31:57.600 higher percentage. But since you guys are going to be 0:31:57.640 --> 0:32:02.120 in about seventeen hundred this year, I'm thinking seventies might 0:32:02.160 --> 0:32:04.240 win the whole thing. Mike, what do you think about that? 0:32:04.960 --> 0:32:07.280 I put that that's somebody asked me, and I said, 0:32:07.320 --> 0:32:09.040 I think if you can get to seventy one percent, 0:32:09.120 --> 0:32:11.160 you've got a real good shot to win it, or 0:32:11.160 --> 0:32:13.440 at least be in the top five. I think seventy 0:32:13.520 --> 0:32:16.320 percent is the threshold right now. I always like to say, 0:32:16.320 --> 0:32:18.320 if you're not even at sixty percent, you shouldn't even 0:32:18.360 --> 0:32:20.640 be discussing where you are in the standings. You know, 0:32:20.680 --> 0:32:24.360 there's a year every few years where it's just a 0:32:24.400 --> 0:32:27.680 tough year and somebody wins at sixty So the uh 0:32:27.800 --> 0:32:30.520 the Starbucks Barrista won the Super Contest a few years ago, 0:32:30.880 --> 0:32:36.959 dipping back to old school level percentage wins of sixty. Uh, 0:32:37.000 --> 0:32:38.360 there was a lot. I mean it was it was 0:32:38.360 --> 0:32:40.600 only a few years ago. It wasn't like it wasn't 0:32:40.600 --> 0:32:42.240 an old school year. There was a lot of entries. 0:32:42.280 --> 0:32:45.440 There was well over a thousand Damon Graham, by the way, 0:32:45.480 --> 0:32:49.000 who's been on this podcast. So I think I think 0:32:49.040 --> 0:32:51.760 seventy percent is probably the threshold. What's the all time record? 0:32:51.760 --> 0:32:54.160 The all time record is what James Salinas or C. H. 0:32:54.280 --> 0:32:57.560 Bawlers for the old Super Contest one they had the record, 0:32:57.680 --> 0:33:00.680 So we'll see. I think seventy percent is absolutely what 0:33:00.720 --> 0:33:02.960 you have to look for. Um, But I hadn't thought 0:33:03.000 --> 0:33:06.360 of that quarterly thing where you almost have to make 0:33:06.440 --> 0:33:08.920 the What you're saying, Todd is you have to make 0:33:08.920 --> 0:33:12.200 the calculus. If you're in it going into the final 0:33:12.240 --> 0:33:15.160 week of the quarter contest, you almost have to make 0:33:15.160 --> 0:33:18.320 the decision do I go for the hundred thousand here 0:33:18.640 --> 0:33:21.640 at the risk of fucking up the big one? And 0:33:21.680 --> 0:33:23.720 what made me think of this is that because you 0:33:23.840 --> 0:33:26.160 talked about this on your show today when you had 0:33:26.160 --> 0:33:28.800 Crack on, I believe you were talking about the contest 0:33:28.880 --> 0:33:31.000 at the end of the contest where you have to 0:33:31.000 --> 0:33:33.720 have this game theory just so that people understand exactly 0:33:33.760 --> 0:33:37.200 what we're talking about. If you if you need in 0:33:37.320 --> 0:33:39.760 first and second place and you're behind me by two 0:33:39.800 --> 0:33:42.960 games and I picked and you end up on the 0:33:43.000 --> 0:33:45.680 same teams as me, forget it lost because there's no 0:33:45.720 --> 0:33:48.040 way you can make up ground. Whereas if you pick 0:33:48.120 --> 0:33:52.080 five the opposite teams of you could theoretically five and 0:33:52.840 --> 0:33:55.120 two and thirty and you can win because you pick 0:33:55.200 --> 0:33:57.880 up three games. So that kind of thing is gonna 0:33:58.160 --> 0:34:01.160 in play even in a quarter the situation, and then 0:34:01.200 --> 0:34:02.960 you brought up make the great point. You have to 0:34:02.960 --> 0:34:05.240 decide do I go for the hundred k or do 0:34:05.320 --> 0:34:08.480 I worry more about my season long deal. Yeah. You 0:34:08.520 --> 0:34:11.399 know what's interesting too. What's interesting to Gil and Todd 0:34:11.520 --> 0:34:14.560 is that in our contest, obviously we're only paying ten 0:34:14.640 --> 0:34:16.839 because we didn't know people are critical of that. Well 0:34:16.840 --> 0:34:18.360 they only k ten, But we didn't know if we 0:34:18.360 --> 0:34:20.080 were going to have three hundred entries. It was our 0:34:20.120 --> 0:34:23.239 first year. But think of this, second place for the 0:34:23.320 --> 0:34:26.120 overall contest is a hundred thousand. You know, it goes 0:34:26.160 --> 0:34:28.839 from a million to a hundred down to whatever sixty five. 0:34:29.200 --> 0:34:31.840 But so each quarter, if we get to seventeen hundred, 0:34:31.920 --> 0:34:33.680 is actually going to be the same as second place. 0:34:33.719 --> 0:34:37.160 So so that that that quarterly theory is pretty strong. 0:34:37.200 --> 0:34:41.240 Now I am so worried that I know my jacket 0:34:41.320 --> 0:34:44.400 size right now. You have no idea. It's got to 0:34:44.440 --> 0:34:47.480 get that down. Also, Todd, Todd, did you notice the 0:34:47.480 --> 0:34:50.560 way that Gil suddenly hinted back to something you mentioned 0:34:50.560 --> 0:34:57.600 earlier by intentionally mispronouncing Barista. I didn't, did I is 0:34:57.640 --> 0:35:02.560 it not pronounced barista A barista lista? Yes? Oh, I'm sorry, 0:35:02.520 --> 0:35:07.640 I think I mean you did pronounce Steve Ploor Steve Burline, 0:35:07.880 --> 0:35:13.800 or that's true, you did misper pronounced Steve Burline. That's correct, 0:35:13.840 --> 0:35:17.640 that barista may be an alternate pronunciation. I might be 0:35:17.800 --> 0:35:20.600 critical here, Yeah, I think I think I might be. Okay, 0:35:20.600 --> 0:35:23.640 all right, gentlemen, let's wrap this up here. Teaser of 0:35:23.680 --> 0:35:26.120 the week, Mike, you got DIBs? What do you got? 0:35:26.239 --> 0:35:28.600 I'm gonna go to two of your best bets. I'll 0:35:28.640 --> 0:35:31.400 tease the Eagles down, and I'm gonna tease the uh. 0:35:31.760 --> 0:35:34.240 I'm gonna tease the Steelers up. Yeah, we don't quite 0:35:34.320 --> 0:35:36.600 get the Eagles through the three at this point. When 0:35:36.640 --> 0:35:39.120 we do get them through the seven, but I'm if 0:35:39.160 --> 0:35:41.959 I may jump my turn here, Todd, that's actually mine 0:35:42.000 --> 0:35:45.880 as well. Pittsburgh up to twelve, through the seven and 0:35:45.920 --> 0:35:49.239 the ten and the Eagles down. I love that one, Todd. 0:35:49.280 --> 0:35:53.800 I'm sorry. I like the San Diego Chargers, even though 0:35:53.840 --> 0:35:58.040 they are no longer in San Diego, handicapped at the coach. 0:35:58.080 --> 0:36:02.840 I like the San Diego Chars to cheese down to 0:36:02.960 --> 0:36:05.680 I believe around one or a half, right, because we're 0:36:05.719 --> 0:36:11.080 doing six point teasers, right, okay? Chargers? And then the Saints, 0:36:11.480 --> 0:36:16.960 the New Orleans Saints last scene suing the National Football 0:36:17.040 --> 0:36:20.479 League for a penalty in New Orleans court. I will 0:36:20.600 --> 0:36:24.360 take them down to plus a half against the maybe 0:36:24.760 --> 0:36:28.440 most annoying coach in the history of the National Football League, Bilbrian. 0:36:28.640 --> 0:36:30.279 All right, and you are, it should be pointed out, 0:36:30.320 --> 0:36:33.120 you are doing the teasers proper, the old Stanford Wong 0:36:33.200 --> 0:36:36.800 teasers again, the most profitable teasers in the National Football League. 0:36:37.320 --> 0:36:40.000 Taking a home favorite down through the seven and three, 0:36:40.000 --> 0:36:41.680 which is Todd just did with both the charges in 0:36:41.719 --> 0:36:46.200 the Saints, or taking small favorites either on the home 0:36:46.440 --> 0:36:49.279 or roadside, and teasing them up to go through the 0:36:49.280 --> 0:36:51.759 three and seven the other way. Those are the most 0:36:51.800 --> 0:36:57.439 profitable teaser legs. Teasing a team that is a seven points, say, 0:36:57.600 --> 0:37:02.840 road favorite down is not a positive evy situation. Not 0:37:02.920 --> 0:37:04.880 that we had any of those just now, but just 0:37:04.920 --> 0:37:07.280 to let people know moving forward with the teaser segment. 0:37:07.400 --> 0:37:09.319 And by the way, if you don't believe me, Todd 0:37:09.360 --> 0:37:10.799 and I, you too. You and I talked about this 0:37:10.840 --> 0:37:13.480 on the show the other day. The South Point Hotel 0:37:13.520 --> 0:37:16.759 Casino had twenty one different permutations of teasers. They did 0:37:16.800 --> 0:37:19.319 a little inventory on this before last football season. They 0:37:19.320 --> 0:37:22.319 had twenty one different permutations six point teaser, six and 0:37:22.320 --> 0:37:25.080 a half, seven point anywhere between two to eight teams. 0:37:25.480 --> 0:37:28.640 They found that they were getting beat on fifteen of them, 0:37:28.719 --> 0:37:31.680 and so what did they do? They raised the juice 0:37:31.920 --> 0:37:34.759 on all of those because what they wanted to do 0:37:34.840 --> 0:37:38.440 was make your break even strike that much higher. Your 0:37:38.480 --> 0:37:42.320 break even percentage went up incrementally, and so that tipped 0:37:42.360 --> 0:37:45.080 the scales back in their favor. So again, you don't 0:37:45.080 --> 0:37:47.560 have to believe what we're saying. The books are basically 0:37:47.600 --> 0:37:51.719 admitting that to you by making those kinds of price adjustments. 0:37:52.200 --> 0:37:54.440 Final two questions, gentlemen, is how we close out each 0:37:54.440 --> 0:37:56.640 and every podcast. This is the one sort of carry 0:37:56.680 --> 0:37:59.160 over from all of it. Which is the big favorite 0:37:59.200 --> 0:38:01.720 on the board? Define mine by I sort of fudget. 0:38:01.800 --> 0:38:03.600 Usually it's a touchdown or more, but sometimes I dip 0:38:03.600 --> 0:38:05.440 it down to six boy favorites or more, which are 0:38:05.440 --> 0:38:07.000 the big favorite on the board that you believe is 0:38:07.040 --> 0:38:09.480 the most likely to lose. Out right, here are your 0:38:09.560 --> 0:38:12.120 choices from week one. The Eagles, as we've talked about, 0:38:12.160 --> 0:38:15.640 ten point favorites over the Redskins, I'll throw in the 0:38:15.640 --> 0:38:19.680 the should I throw in Cleveland Shore Cleveland six point 0:38:19.719 --> 0:38:21.840 favorites or five and a half point favorites Hosting the 0:38:21.840 --> 0:38:24.960 Tennessee Titans Baltimore six and a half point favorites on 0:38:25.000 --> 0:38:27.680 the road at Miami, Seattle ten point favorites at home 0:38:27.680 --> 0:38:30.839 against Cincinnati Chargers six and a half point favorites at 0:38:30.840 --> 0:38:34.600 home against the Colts, and then Dallas seven point favorites 0:38:34.640 --> 0:38:36.640 at home against the Giants. And we mentioned New Orleans 0:38:36.680 --> 0:38:39.080 seven point favorites at home the first of two Monday 0:38:39.160 --> 0:38:42.560 night games hosting the Texans. Mike, which is the one 0:38:42.719 --> 0:38:46.040 most likely to lose outright, Well, it's the same as 0:38:46.120 --> 0:38:49.360 my My first best bet is, uh, the Cowboys. I 0:38:49.360 --> 0:38:51.160 think the Giants are a live dog here and have 0:38:51.200 --> 0:38:55.000 a shot to win this game. Todd, same question, I 0:38:55.120 --> 0:38:56.880 have the same answer to. It's the same as my 0:38:56.920 --> 0:38:59.600 best bet the Titans plus the five and a half 0:39:00.040 --> 0:39:06.160 against Freddie Kitchens and Jesus and quarterback. I'm gonna take 0:39:06.200 --> 0:39:09.560 the Dallas Cowboys. Believe it or not, I'm gonna take 0:39:09.560 --> 0:39:13.920 the Dallas Cowboys. Like division game, you never quite know 0:39:14.280 --> 0:39:16.839 what could happen there. Dallas just getting Zeke back of 0:39:16.840 --> 0:39:20.319 course this week. That is one of five afternoon games. 0:39:20.320 --> 0:39:22.439 That's the one thing the NFL got right in Week one, 0:39:22.560 --> 0:39:25.520 because I don't think CBS has the US open package 0:39:25.520 --> 0:39:28.440 anymore tennis, which obviously has the men's final this Sunday, 0:39:28.600 --> 0:39:31.359 so five afternoon games. I would say Dallas the most 0:39:31.400 --> 0:39:32.759 likely to lose out right. We none of us are 0:39:32.800 --> 0:39:34.880 predicting by the way that these teams will lose out right, 0:39:34.880 --> 0:39:36.960 But if we had to choose one, uh, those are 0:39:36.960 --> 0:39:38.680 the teams were going with. And then the final question 0:39:38.880 --> 0:39:41.840 full slate of games. Sixteen games in the NFL Week one, 0:39:42.239 --> 0:39:44.200 which is the game on the side that if you 0:39:44.239 --> 0:39:46.440 had to pick one, Mike, if you were forced to 0:39:46.440 --> 0:39:48.680 bet fifteen of them on the side, but you've got 0:39:48.680 --> 0:39:51.120 one free pass, one game that you want no part 0:39:51.120 --> 0:39:54.680 of whatsoever, which game would it be? I don't. I 0:39:54.719 --> 0:39:57.200 didn't want to play this Jets Bills game. I think 0:39:57.239 --> 0:39:59.560 these teams are awful close and the line is probably 0:39:59.640 --> 0:40:01.720 right at three. A lot of people are really bullish 0:40:01.800 --> 0:40:04.080 on the Jets. I'd like to I'd like to see 0:40:04.120 --> 0:40:07.520 these two teams play because I think that the thought 0:40:07.600 --> 0:40:10.000 is they're very similar and how successful they're going to 0:40:10.080 --> 0:40:12.600 be this year, so you get three points being at 0:40:12.600 --> 0:40:14.319 the Jets. I think the line is right on. I 0:40:14.320 --> 0:40:16.879 would not bet that game. Yeah, I don't. I would 0:40:16.920 --> 0:40:18.520 stay away from that too. I don't know if it's 0:40:18.520 --> 0:40:20.400 my first choice, though, Todd, what's your What's the one 0:40:20.400 --> 0:40:22.480 you want no part of? The one I want no 0:40:22.600 --> 0:40:25.960 part of is the Rams Carolina. What Cam Newton is 0:40:25.960 --> 0:40:30.040 gonna show up? A healthy camp or a totally unhealthy 0:40:30.080 --> 0:40:33.240 Cam Newton who throws the ball five feet over guy's heads, 0:40:33.360 --> 0:40:37.160 does stupid thing, all kinds of nonsense, and you want 0:40:37.160 --> 0:40:39.120 to kill yourself if you back them. So I have 0:40:39.239 --> 0:40:42.040 no idea what Carolina team I'm getting this week, so 0:40:42.160 --> 0:40:44.520 I want no part of it. For me, it's a 0:40:44.560 --> 0:40:47.279 toss up between Mike's Buffalo Jets pick because I really 0:40:47.280 --> 0:40:50.240 don't want any part of that and Denver Oakland actually 0:40:50.280 --> 0:40:52.080 the second of the two Monday night games. I don't 0:40:52.160 --> 0:40:53.480 really have a feel for that. And if you look 0:40:53.480 --> 0:40:56.279 at Oakland schedule, man, they better win this game because 0:40:56.360 --> 0:40:58.719 they don't win this good Lord, I don't know when 0:40:58.719 --> 0:41:01.680 they're winning. Their schedule is brutal. But I would actually 0:41:01.680 --> 0:41:04.160 say gunnahead Buffalo Jets. That's the one that I would 0:41:04.160 --> 0:41:05.800 want the least part of. That would be my answer 0:41:05.840 --> 0:41:08.840 as well, Gil, can we get our since the season 0:41:08.920 --> 0:41:10.839 is starting to Nike in the three of us make 0:41:10.880 --> 0:41:14.400 our conference champion in Super Bowl predictions. Now, I just 0:41:14.440 --> 0:41:17.239 think that would be it. All right, let's do that. 0:41:17.840 --> 0:41:21.240 Let's hear from Todd Wish. Wow, I'm put on the spot. 0:41:21.239 --> 0:41:23.120 I didn't even know I needed to come up with one, 0:41:23.160 --> 0:41:25.839 but I guess I'm gonna do something boring. And I'm 0:41:25.840 --> 0:41:29.160 gonna go with Uncle Billy to win the a f C. 0:41:29.520 --> 0:41:32.759 He seems to win it every year. How can not 0:41:33.000 --> 0:41:37.360 take Uncle Billy Belichick to win the a f C 0:41:37.760 --> 0:41:41.080 in the National Football Conference? I think I would have 0:41:41.160 --> 0:41:44.120 to go. And this is just totally on the spot. 0:41:44.480 --> 0:41:48.040 I'm gonna go with your New Orleans things. Wow, Mike, 0:41:48.080 --> 0:41:51.560 you want me to go next? Patriots Eagles? In fact, 0:41:51.600 --> 0:41:55.440 I bet it at to one. There's some markets that 0:41:55.480 --> 0:41:58.240 have exacted, some books that have the market for exact 0:41:58.239 --> 0:42:00.799 as which Christie Andrews, by the way, innovated many years ago. 0:42:01.200 --> 0:42:02.840 And I and let me just say this in advance. 0:42:03.120 --> 0:42:06.160 They're two hundred and fifty six different combinations of teams 0:42:06.160 --> 0:42:07.719 that get to the Super Bowl. Obviously, you can throw 0:42:07.719 --> 0:42:10.040 out some crappy teams, so it's not quite that difficult, 0:42:10.160 --> 0:42:13.160 not quite that much of a crapshoot. You'll get almost 0:42:13.239 --> 0:42:15.919 as good odds on this right before the postseason, so 0:42:16.080 --> 0:42:19.360 they're only thirty six combinations at that point. So this 0:42:19.520 --> 0:42:21.280 twenty five, the one that I have on the Eagles 0:42:21.280 --> 0:42:24.440 and the Patriots, you probably won't be worse than fifteen 0:42:24.440 --> 0:42:26.560 to one then, So not the greatest bet in the 0:42:26.600 --> 0:42:28.279 world to make now, but I made it nonetheless. But 0:42:28.320 --> 0:42:31.400 those are my two picks I went in terms of confidence. 0:42:31.440 --> 0:42:33.319 I'll tell the one that I have more confidence, and 0:42:33.320 --> 0:42:35.920 I really love the Eagles in the NFC. I think 0:42:35.920 --> 0:42:40.160 it's a regression year um for the Rams and not 0:42:40.239 --> 0:42:42.960 knowing Girley's health, and then uh, a tough choice for 0:42:43.000 --> 0:42:45.319 me between Chiefs and Steelers in the FC, but I 0:42:45.320 --> 0:42:47.600 went with the Chiefs. So Chiefs and Eagles in the 0:42:47.640 --> 0:42:50.600 Super Bowl, Chiefs and Eagles. Should we do one wacky 0:42:50.680 --> 0:42:53.000 division pick that does off the radar? Can we do that? 0:42:53.560 --> 0:42:55.160 Let's do that before we close. Because I have the 0:42:55.280 --> 0:43:00.160 Niners at plus three Niners plus three to in the 0:43:00.320 --> 0:43:02.640 NFC West. I think a lot of people are sleeping 0:43:02.680 --> 0:43:05.200 on them. I think they've got a great young team 0:43:05.239 --> 0:43:07.200 that flies around. I think Jimmy g is gonna get 0:43:07.200 --> 0:43:10.560 it back together. And I think the Rams, while good 0:43:10.600 --> 0:43:12.640 will not be nearly as good as they were last 0:43:12.680 --> 0:43:15.319 year for any number of reasons, including the fact that 0:43:15.320 --> 0:43:17.920 Bill Belichick gave him a blueprint in the Super Bowl, 0:43:17.960 --> 0:43:20.080 the fact that we don't really know what Todd Gurley's doing. 0:43:20.400 --> 0:43:23.359 They had a great record in one score games last year. 0:43:23.400 --> 0:43:25.560 There's a whole bunch of reasons. But Niners plus three 0:43:26.160 --> 0:43:28.239 to win the West? Anything from you, Mike, Yeah, but 0:43:28.320 --> 0:43:29.879 that's what I was going to give out. I bet 0:43:29.920 --> 0:43:32.279 I bet the Niners. I didn't bet them to win 0:43:32.320 --> 0:43:35.040 the West, but that would be my prediction of of 0:43:35.040 --> 0:43:37.280 of a team under the radar. I bet him overwin 0:43:37.400 --> 0:43:39.879 total and to make the playoffs. And then the other 0:43:39.920 --> 0:43:43.400 one is I think that the Falcons are very live 0:43:43.719 --> 0:43:46.440 in the in the NFC South. I think their schedule 0:43:46.520 --> 0:43:48.839 is very favorable for them and that they don't have 0:43:48.880 --> 0:43:51.040 to play in any cold weather. So I'd look at 0:43:51.200 --> 0:43:55.320 Niners and Falcons. Is upset division winners? Niners and Falcons? 0:43:55.800 --> 0:43:58.920 Uh time my, uh, you know, pull it out of 0:43:58.960 --> 0:44:03.319 your ass, so to speak. It would be the Jacksonville Jaguars. 0:44:03.400 --> 0:44:07.560 The Jacksonville Jaguars are in that typical NFL pattern of 0:44:08.120 --> 0:44:11.200 big step up one year, and we know They almost 0:44:11.239 --> 0:44:13.080 beat the Patriots to go to Super Bowl two years 0:44:13.239 --> 0:44:16.240 ago after whooping the Steelers in Pittsburgh in the playoffs. 0:44:16.239 --> 0:44:18.239 So they were almost a super Bowl team two years ago. 0:44:18.520 --> 0:44:21.799 Then the ship hit the proverbial fan last year. And 0:44:21.880 --> 0:44:24.200 now if they can get it together with with Mr 0:44:24.280 --> 0:44:27.160 Nick Foles at the quarterback position, maybe they could have 0:44:27.200 --> 0:44:30.880 another big step forward. Because that defense was tremendous two 0:44:30.960 --> 0:44:33.120 years ago. And you know, if they could get that 0:44:33.160 --> 0:44:35.840 back together and get some stability instead of boarders at 0:44:35.880 --> 0:44:39.000 the quarterback position, why can't they win that division? Andrew 0:44:39.120 --> 0:44:42.200 Luck's not there and you've got Bill O'Brien, so why 0:44:42.239 --> 0:44:47.200 can't they win? I mean, I was gonna say take 0:44:47.239 --> 0:44:49.520 of reasons, but you know, I don't wanna. I don't 0:44:49.520 --> 0:44:52.560 wanna say yeah. I'm just saying you're saying you want 0:44:52.560 --> 0:44:54.759 to pick that's like off the radar. Yeah, no, I 0:44:54.840 --> 0:44:56.799 like it. I like it. Well, Well, well, Mark mall 0:44:56.840 --> 0:44:58.719 Dann will see how ridiculous we are by the end 0:44:58.719 --> 0:45:02.880 of the season. I appreciate at Mike Palm conciliarated Derrick Stevens, 0:45:02.880 --> 0:45:05.560 the vice president of operations at Circuit Sports. Thank you, 0:45:05.600 --> 0:45:08.440 sir for being on and uh Todd Wish and of 0:45:08.840 --> 0:45:13.080 multi media star Uh. You may know him from Showtime's 0:45:13.440 --> 0:45:16.919 docuseries Action as the lovable guy at the south Point 0:45:16.960 --> 0:45:19.040 sports Book. Thank you both, I appreciate it very much. 0:45:19.320 --> 0:45:21.400 Kill Alexander, thank you so much for listening. Good luck 0:45:21.440 --> 0:45:24.200 with all your bets. Week one in the NFL.