Speaker 1: The volume. This week on Prime Cuch Chad Millman, Sharper
Speaker 1: Square Nick right on if Jim Harball makes the leap
Speaker 1: back to the NFL in my Top takes of the week.
Speaker 1: So the knock in the Cowboys was going into this game.
Speaker 1: They'd beaten the Giants twice, the Jets, Washington, New England,
Speaker 1: Carolina beat up Rams team, and the Chargers, well, Rams
Speaker 1: are now pretty good. Chargers are talented. You know, Seattle's competent,
Speaker 1: Washington's always in most games. They're a nine and three
Speaker 1: football team. I don't think there is talented as San Francisco,
Speaker 1: but I do think they present some things where you
Speaker 1: can argue they can go toe to toe and beat Philadelphia.
Speaker 1: And the number one reason is the Cowboys have seven
Speaker 1: blowout wins, and over the last decade, nine of ten
Speaker 1: Super Bowl teams have averaged seven to eight blowout wins.
Speaker 1: Dallas has seven, Philadelphia has two. So San Francisco and
Speaker 1: Dallas are the two teams in the NFC that blow
Speaker 1: people out. They flex because they can. Philadelphia had love
Speaker 1: to blow people out, but they can't. They're back end
Speaker 1: of their defense is weak. Offensively, Jalen Hurts is terrific,
Speaker 1: but he has become a very good second half quarterback
Speaker 1: and can struggle in the first half. They've trailed their
Speaker 1: last four games at half, so I think if you're
Speaker 1: a Dallas Cowboy fan, I've always had the kind of
Speaker 1: the same feeling about the Cowboys for the last twenty
Speaker 1: five years. I always say Tony Romo is pretty good,
Speaker 1: the Cowboys are pretty good, Jason Garrett was pretty good,
Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy's pretty good, Dak's pretty good, and I'm always right.
Speaker 1: They always went about nine or ten games, maybe eleven twelve,
Speaker 1: But I never feel that our super Bowl team. I
Speaker 1: do believe if Ceedee Lamb stays healthy and Tyron Smith
Speaker 1: the left tackle, stay healthy because Dak's having a good
Speaker 1: year and McCarthy's obviously elevating DAK, that if they can
Speaker 1: stay healthy with Tyron Smith, Ferguson's you know product, and
Speaker 1: Ceedee Lamb, they can win shootouts and they're good enough defensively,
Speaker 1: there'll be a good team playing with a lead because
Speaker 1: of the pass rush. I do wish they went and
Speaker 1: acquired like a Dereck Henry at the trade deadline. I
Speaker 1: think what they really miss is they have a lead
Speaker 1: in the game and they just want to eat the clock.
Speaker 1: They want to power run it, and they're not. Really
Speaker 1: that's not what they're built to do. They can score,
Speaker 1: they can score quickly, they can score a lot, but
Speaker 1: I don't I feel like they missed sort of that
Speaker 1: power offense where they could just hand it off to
Speaker 1: a Derek Henry and just say six minute drive, let's
Speaker 1: pick up first downs, never drop back to throw so
Speaker 1: and I think San Francisco can do that, Philadelphia can
Speaker 1: do that, the better teams Baltimore can do that, the
Speaker 1: better teams in the league can do it, and I
Speaker 1: don't think Dallas can. But we have to be honest
Speaker 1: about Mike McCarthy. We have to be fair and reasonable.
Speaker 1: And Mike McCarthy has taken Dak Prescott, you know, a
Speaker 1: couple of years ago pretty ugly in Michael Gallup's never
Speaker 1: been what they thought. Brandon Cooks isn't what everybody promised
Speaker 1: he would be. They lost Dalton Schultz, they couldn't afford
Speaker 1: him Amari Cooper, and you look up today. Dallas's good
Speaker 1: football team. And I've been calling them pretty good for
Speaker 1: twenty five years. I think they're very good. I think
Speaker 1: They're a very good football team. And I haven't gone
Speaker 1: pretty good to very good in Dallas many times. But
Speaker 1: you can't get too caught up on the fact that
Speaker 1: their defense gave up a bunch of points tonight. Listen,
Speaker 1: it's the NFL, it's in college football. DK Metcalf was
Speaker 1: a huge matchup problem. Seattle's got Lockett the rookie receiver,
Speaker 1: no offense, a huge body, DJ Metcalf, and I thought
Speaker 1: their offensive line tonight, you know, created some holes early,
Speaker 1: especially on the ground. You know, Seattle's got a lot
Speaker 1: of talent. They've Shane Waldron's a respected offensive coordinator. You're
Speaker 1: not going to throw shutouts right that. The defensive rules
Speaker 1: don't allow it. You're not keeping talented teams and veteran
Speaker 1: coaching staff to seventeen points every week. It happens. But
Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna go from pretty good to very
Speaker 1: good for the Cowboys. And I have not done that much,
Speaker 1: And Mike McCarthy deserves credit, and I've been critical, But
Speaker 1: dex twenty nine to forty one, three hundred yards, three dds,
Speaker 1: no picks. That's big boy football. How about them Cowboys?
Speaker 1: David Tepper firing Frank Wright. I have talked about this
Speaker 1: and about the low hit rate on quarterbacks in the NFL,
Speaker 1: and I think a lot of it is the business
Speaker 1: side of the NFL. All these owners are now billionaires,
Speaker 1: so they look at a coaching contract where they owe
Speaker 1: a coach seventy million dollars, sixty million dollars, fifty million dollars.
Speaker 1: It's a rounding air. It wasn't when owners were making,
Speaker 1: you know, twenty five million a year and had a
Speaker 1: net worth of four hundred million. They would not just
Speaker 1: write off a coach after twelve games, thirteen games. But
Speaker 1: now these guys are all worth six billion dollars, fourteen
Speaker 1: billion dollars, twenty billion dollars. David Tepper is I think
Speaker 1: first or second third richest owner. He's just going to
Speaker 1: write it off. And so what happens is Bryce Young
Speaker 1: now gets another coordinator, another staff, another system, and that
Speaker 1: will stunt the growth of Bryce Young. And I think
Speaker 1: part of why all these young quarterbacks Tom Brady talked
Speaker 1: about the league football is not as good as it
Speaker 1: was years ago because there was more stability. It's hard
Speaker 1: enough to be a quarterback in this league. I mean
Speaker 1: Bryce Young, he got a new coach, new system, new coordinator,
Speaker 1: new quarterback coach. You not even through year one, they're
Speaker 1: already got rid of their guy. And so I think
Speaker 1: when something is hard to do, franchise quarterback play in
Speaker 1: the NFL, and then you add chaos and change to
Speaker 1: it makes it twice as tough. So, you know, Tom
Speaker 1: and Tom Brady said, you know, quality of play in
Speaker 1: the NFL is worse. Ownership is richer, more impatient, more meddling,
Speaker 1: more impulsive, more willing to make radical and quick changes,
Speaker 1: which makes it harder to quarterback. Does it make it
Speaker 1: harder to be a good running back or a good
Speaker 1: corner or a talented left tackle? The quarterback is all
Speaker 1: about coaching and system and momentum and protection and chemistry
Speaker 1: and choreography. And if you're constantly changing coordinators. I've said
Speaker 1: this about Justin Herbert. He's on his third coordinator and
Speaker 1: his second head coach. What is he in year five?
Speaker 1: There's a lot of change, and it just makes it
Speaker 1: really difficult. So I don't think I think there's a
Speaker 1: direct correlation to quality of quarterback play and quality of football,
Speaker 1: you know, And a great example, I mean, I think
Speaker 1: a really great example of this is C. J. Stroud.
Speaker 1: Nobody wanted to watch the Texans the last seven or
Speaker 1: eight years, six or seven years, c J. Stroud. Now
Speaker 1: they play Jacksonville this weekend. Highly entertaining, highly entertaining. I
Speaker 1: mean Russell Wilson gets the right coach. I like watch
Speaker 1: the Denver Broncos now young, tough defense, They can throw
Speaker 1: the ball, they run, they power run it got Mims,
Speaker 1: They've got Jerry Judy, they got Courtland Sutton, they have
Speaker 1: capable tight ends. I like their running backs. Denver all
Speaker 1: of a sudden, same rosters last year, but the quality
Speaker 1: of quarterback efficiency's gone up. Broncos are now a fun watch.
Speaker 1: Broncos are like, okay, they can move the change. They've
Speaker 1: won five straight. It's all the same players that six
Speaker 1: weeks ago. It's all the same players last year except
Speaker 1: the left tackles here and healthy. But I don't think
Speaker 1: the quality of plays worse than the NFL. I think
Speaker 1: the impatience of owners and the constant influx of change
Speaker 1: has made it harder to be a franchise quarterback as
Speaker 1: a young quarterback. And that's what it looks like. Drek uneven, inefficient,
Speaker 1: it's not good. But when you get good quarterback play
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts Josh Allen. It's great television. It's fantastic television.
Speaker 1: You know. I went to watch Bonix Oregon play Michael
Speaker 1: Pennox Washington's one of the best college games I've ever
Speaker 1: been to. I watched Matt Lioner at USC play Vince
Speaker 1: Young Texas years ago, years and years and years ago.
Speaker 1: It's one of the best college games I've ever seen. So,
Speaker 1: you know, you can have the world's greatest athletes. New
Speaker 1: England with Brady defensive culture couldn't turn them off. Matt
Speaker 1: Jones Bailey's appy unwatchable, simple as that football is not worse.
Speaker 1: Impatience is at an all time high. Top down. Puts
Speaker 1: pressure on the coach, the quarterback, the coordinators. It's not good.
Speaker 1: Carolina embarrassing, not good. The Rams right now, believe it
Speaker 1: or not, are in a dog fight for a wild
Speaker 1: card spot in the NFC. And so this this was
Speaker 1: a team Vegas had their over under at about five.
Speaker 1: And I had said in the off season I had
Speaker 1: to talk myself out of putting them in the playoffs,
Speaker 1: because I said, if you have a really smart offensive
Speaker 1: coach and a really talented quarterback and at least one
Speaker 1: big time weapon. Sean McVay, Matt Stafford coover Cup. You know,
Speaker 1: they had a couple offensive lineman I liked and could
Speaker 1: tie to end. Tyler Higbe. You had a couple of
Speaker 1: touchdowns today against Arizona. I'm like that. That's a team
Speaker 1: battling for the playoffs. But because they had so many
Speaker 1: young players defensively, you know, my takeaway was they probably
Speaker 1: won't they won't stop people. Well, Raheem Morris has been
Speaker 1: a great defensive coordinator for them. But it's really the
Speaker 1: Rams kind of ironically have become the opposite of the Chargers.
Speaker 1: Where the Chargers are constantly underachieving, the Rams are the opposite.
Speaker 1: I mean, if you really look at what this year
Speaker 1: was outside of Aaron Donald, it is a bunch of kids.
Speaker 1: There is no money on the defensive side at all,
Speaker 1: and they're playing very well now. They were physically controlled
Speaker 1: by the Philadelphia Eagles, a stacked, often veteran roster. Outside
Speaker 1: of that, they have been in every game this year
Speaker 1: and have beaten teams swept Seattle and it's just coaching. Mcvea.
Speaker 1: Oon's Pete Carroll, Stafford's better than Geno Smith. But the Rams.
Speaker 1: I mean, even if you go back to their Super
Speaker 1: Bowl year, it took Matt Stafford. You know, they were
Speaker 1: struggling a couple of blowout losses. You know that they
Speaker 1: had cam Akers, who they liked but didn't love. He
Speaker 1: had a bit of a fumble problem. They almost blew
Speaker 1: that game in Tampa because of cam Aker fumbles. You know,
Speaker 1: it was a team that had Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald,
Speaker 1: but Jalen Ramsey would bite and get burned over the
Speaker 1: top a lot. That was a team that was trying
Speaker 1: to kind of figure and find its way, and they
Speaker 1: eventually did for a Super Bowl. But I mean, I
Speaker 1: would say for a majority of the year, we did
Speaker 1: not look at that Rams team as a super Bowl team.
Speaker 1: They had some ugly, ugly losses and they just kind
Speaker 1: of find ways to win. With Sean McVay, now he
Speaker 1: struggles in the regular season against Kyle Shanahan of the
Speaker 1: forty nine ers. They just don't match up particularly well
Speaker 1: with them. But outside of that matchup, I'm watching the
Speaker 1: Rams this year. The play calling, Now, Arizona's not a
Speaker 1: great team. Nobody thinks they are. The play calling today though,
Speaker 1: I mean, Cooper cup is not one hundred percent. If
Speaker 1: you watch the game today, he is his first catch
Speaker 1: of the game, he's limping. They got Williams backed Kyron
Speaker 1: Williams are a very nice running back, very shifty, very clever,
Speaker 1: and that gives them kind of a one to two
Speaker 1: punch at running back and wide receiver. But this is
Speaker 1: a team that I would argue doesn't have a single
Speaker 1: great player in their prime. Aaron Donald's not, Cooper Cup
Speaker 1: is not, Matt Stafford's not. Rob Hevenstein is a good,
Speaker 1: good right tackle, but he's not in his prime. They
Speaker 1: don't have a single great player in their prime. Now
Speaker 1: go to the Philadelphia Eagles. In contrast, Jalen Hurts, great
Speaker 1: player in his prime. AJ Brown great receiver in his prime,
Speaker 1: Davonte Smith excellent player in his prime. Their left tackle
Speaker 1: young player PFF, top graded left tackle in his prime.
Speaker 1: That's just on the offensive side, is stacked and will
Speaker 1: probably win the Super Bowl. If you go to the
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers, Fred Warner I thinks in his prime,
Speaker 1: late prime, but you know Bosa in his prime, Debo
Speaker 1: in his prime, Brandon Ayuk just moving into his prime.
Speaker 1: Rams don't have one. So this is a team there
Speaker 1: are certain teams in this league, the Chargers being won,
Speaker 1: Buffalo another that kind of find ways to lose. You know,
Speaker 1: the Rams being a viable playoff team with this roster
Speaker 1: is I mean, they've been moving offensive line pieces around,
Speaker 1: going to get running backs off the street. Needed Pooka
Speaker 1: Nakua the fifth round wide receiver. Early when Cooper cup
Speaker 1: was out to produce offense on the perimeter to two
Speaker 1: out Well was a bus seemingly at wide receiver. He's
Speaker 1: now semi viable big play receiver. They are just coaching
Speaker 1: and drafting and development, and I mean, in the same build,
Speaker 1: you've got a team that finds ways to lose and
Speaker 1: a team that finds ways to win. There's no way
Speaker 1: the Rams should be a more viable playoff team this
Speaker 1: year than the Chargers. Again, Chargers justin Herbert in his prime.
Speaker 1: They're left tackle Slater in his prime. It was a
Speaker 1: great players, Derwin James in his prime, Bosa in his prime.
Speaker 1: You know several high end players. Rams don't have one.
Speaker 1: They have good players, no great players though in the
Speaker 1: middle in the meat of their career. You know, I've
Speaker 1: said before, we're all morally flexible. Okay, we're all morally flexible.
Speaker 1: We all speed. I drove about eighty getting to my
Speaker 1: house today. That I don't have a speeding ticket. You know,
Speaker 1: if I got through a school district, I wouldn't. But
Speaker 1: it was all like, you know, just freeways and stuff.
Speaker 1: And it is interesting the position that I and you're
Speaker 1: not a big college football fan, but it's beyond that
Speaker 1: that I know Jim Harbaugh's program did something that appears
Speaker 1: to be deceptive, but it doesn't bother me. And the
Speaker 1: reason it doesn't bother me is because, and it's probably
Speaker 1: two or three different reasons. One, it's like taxes. If
Speaker 1: I write off a bottle of wine, I'm not the first,
Speaker 1: and I'm kind of a sucker if I don't, right like,
Speaker 1: at some point you're like eh. And the other thing
Speaker 1: about it is I feel, deep down because this has
Speaker 1: been sourced multiple times, there's been so much cheating going on,
Speaker 1: and I don't think Harbaugh and Michigan's history indicates they
Speaker 1: ever bought players or skirted the system. But I sort
Speaker 1: of feel like a lot of people that are pissed
Speaker 1: off are southern college football fans who now acknowledge, you know,
Speaker 1: Michigan and everybody can buy players too, and now the
Speaker 1: nil and transfer portal, it's even the playing field out
Speaker 1: and I think that, combined with Harbaugh's unique personality, I'm
Speaker 1: rooting for Jim to not be punished too severely.
Speaker 2: Welly, listen, I agree with almost all of that, and
Speaker 2: so a few things. One is, it's also bad for
Speaker 2: college football if he's punished super severely, because it makes
Speaker 2: it more likely he leaves college football, and Jim Harbaugh's
Speaker 2: good for college football. Nobody benefits from Jim Harbaugh going
Speaker 2: to coach the Bears other than potentially the Bears, and
Speaker 2: so he's good for college football. I also don't think
Speaker 2: there's a lot of people out actually outraged by this.
Speaker 2: I think there are people that either at an axe
Speaker 2: to grind or have their own purposes served by Michigan
Speaker 2: being dinged, that are acting like they are deeply morally outraged.
Speaker 2: I'm not acting like there aren't moral outrages in sports.
Speaker 2: There are. Sometimes It almost always to me, involves off
Speaker 2: field violence, particularly off field violence towards can't really defend themselves.
Speaker 2: And you know, I'm not I've never been one that's
Speaker 2: I'm not that outraged by when pre and il guys
Speaker 2: paid for players. I wasn't that outrage. I'm not that
Speaker 2: outraged by a pro athlete getting in a bar fight.
Speaker 2: There are different things though that everybody knows what they
Speaker 2: are where you're like, no, that's beyond the pale, and
Speaker 2: it makes me feel kind of scummy rooting for this
Speaker 2: guy or this team. And that's but this was not
Speaker 2: a hard one for me. It did not seem like
Speaker 2: now there are and so we all have different lines.
Speaker 2: If the scandal was and maybe people will say, Nick,
Speaker 2: you're just drawing totally arbitrary lines, so be it. If
Speaker 2: this was the allegation at Michigan Stadium, at the Big House,
Speaker 2: they would systematically cut off the ability for the imposing
Speaker 2: team to communicate coach to quarterback in key moments. I
Speaker 2: would think that is a massive violation, that is to me,
Speaker 2: And again I don't know why that is in one.
Speaker 1: Category set the rule. There were camquarders. It would have
Speaker 1: been very difficult to get those tickets that would have
Speaker 1: taken you a week, and camcorders set up in a
Speaker 1: room in an office. People, this is CD iPhone.
Speaker 2: It just isn't the same exactly right, And it also
Speaker 2: didn't it felt like whenever there is a system that
Speaker 2: is built around the assumption there is some level of cheating,
Speaker 2: that cheating existing doesn't bother me that much. And by
Speaker 2: that I mean the reason college football has four guys
Speaker 2: faces on a placard as a sign and then they
Speaker 2: change it up or all these things is because there
Speaker 2: is the assumption as some of our signs might be
Speaker 2: stolen at some point. Nobody thinks that's not happening. Ever,
Speaker 2: so this one didn't. I agree with you on this.
Speaker 2: This one didn't rise to the level of felony. Now,
Speaker 2: with that said, what did I don't want to say
Speaker 2: bother me, but at least I found a little irritating
Speaker 2: was Michigan acting like they are this persecuted, you know,
Speaker 2: totally innocent babe in the woods and the Michigan I
Speaker 2: understand in sports, but the Michigan versus everybody and this
Speaker 2: idea that they have been wronged. I don't think Michigan
Speaker 2: has been wronged. I don't think they're the victim. But
Speaker 2: I also don't think they victimized anyone on any substantial level.
Speaker 2: And I think this. I think they're the best college
Speaker 2: football team in the country. You're right, I don't watch
Speaker 2: nearly as much as you do. But I watch the
Speaker 2: biggest games, and I'm very familiar with the teams that
Speaker 2: are in the argument for the best college football team
Speaker 2: in the country. And i know Georgia fans are gonna
Speaker 2: be like, we haven't lost in three years, maybe it
Speaker 2: should be us. I get that. I think Michigan has
Speaker 2: just can can beat you in almost every way. I
Speaker 2: don't think that. I don't think they're gonna beat you
Speaker 2: forty nine to forty five. I understand that. Yeah, but
Speaker 2: their defensive too good in my opinion, to let a
Speaker 2: game get to forty nine forty five. And so I
Speaker 2: just I'm really impressed by them. I'm really impressed by them,
Speaker 2: and I'll be surprised if Iowa score seven points. I
Speaker 2: know that game is on Fox everyone who you watch it,
Speaker 2: but I'll be by.
Speaker 1: Our judicial system. Our judicial system has layers of crimes,
Speaker 1: like levels of crimes. And this, of course is like speeding. Yes,
Speaker 1: Jim went too fast and probably flipped the burden the
Speaker 1: Maserati going ninety two at eighty in an Acura. It
Speaker 1: wouldn't have been outrageous, but it was kind of in
Speaker 1: your face over the top. If it's true, right, it
Speaker 1: was a little, but it's still speeding. It's not it's
Speaker 1: not burglary, it's it.
Speaker 2: Is yeah, correct, this is this is at worse, to
Speaker 2: use the judicial analogy, the most severe misdemeanor. It does
Speaker 2: not qualify as like the least severe felony. This is
Speaker 2: at most like walking out of the supermarket and with
Speaker 2: something in your you know, doing the self checkout and
Speaker 2: being like, oh, I forgot the stuff at the bottom
Speaker 2: of my cart. I'm sorry, Like, yeah, you might, they
Speaker 2: might even give you a coordinate for it, but it's
Speaker 2: not for you. Probably don't need to hire an attorney.
Speaker 2: Like that's to me the level that that it was at.
Speaker 2: And also that's why your since your show does your
Speaker 2: pod and your show does a substantial mound of college football,
Speaker 2: you guys talked about it. We on my pod and
Speaker 2: on my TV show. We haven't talked about it once,
Speaker 2: like like, it's just not our Like I don't think
Speaker 2: but if it was a true scandal, it was, we
Speaker 2: would We don't talk a ton of baseball. When the
Speaker 2: Astros thing was going on, we at least talked about
Speaker 2: that and what it meant. And again that felt different.
Speaker 2: Maybe this is me sounding like an old man. But
Speaker 2: it felt different because they're the allegation of using course
Speaker 2: like high level technology. Felt like it was different than
Speaker 2: you know what I mean, My guy at second base
Speaker 2: can see the sign the catchers giving and we got
Speaker 2: a little system built in. It just felt different, all right.
Speaker 1: John Middlecoff, former NFL scout on the Three and Out
Speaker 1: podcast for the volume Let's Start. Philadelphia plays about as
Speaker 1: poorly as they can possibly play. This is the team
Speaker 1: you used to scout for. They have made sort of
Speaker 1: an art form out of sluggish wins. It's probably why
Speaker 1: I think I give them. I'd make them the favorite
Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl this year. I thought they
Speaker 1: were so. In fact, it was my DraftKings bet of
Speaker 1: the week. I thought Buffalo and four and a half
Speaker 1: was a great bet. Did you have your doubts in
Speaker 1: this one because it was so sloppy early?
Speaker 3: Well, I mean felt like a lock Buffalo win when
Speaker 3: it was twenty four to fourteen and they were in
Speaker 3: complete control, and then it went touchdown Josh Allen interception touchdown,
Speaker 3: and then they got the lead, and then he s went, well,
Speaker 3: this is the Philadelphia team we've seen all year. Because
Speaker 3: I don't think there's any player in the NFL who
Speaker 3: has looked as poorly in their parts of games and
Speaker 3: then turned the switch and look like an MVP again.
Speaker 3: And maybe it's you know, Romo. They talked about that.
Speaker 3: Whatever it is, the deep thigh brews or the injury
Speaker 3: that he's dealing with, it's not something that you know,
Speaker 3: you just you got a pain tolerance. Maybe as the
Speaker 3: game goes on.
Speaker 1: He gets a little looser.
Speaker 3: Yeah, because early on in games, there is no elite
Speaker 3: player who plays as crappy in the first half as Jalen.
Speaker 3: You look up at of stats early on in the
Speaker 3: first half, he barely had over he had under forty
Speaker 3: yards passing. Yeah, and then all of a sudden, you
Speaker 3: look at the end of the game, You're like, I
Speaker 3: thought the guy was awesome. You know, it's he's been
Speaker 3: a he's been a crazy roller coaster ride. And it
Speaker 3: goes back. You know, Josh Allen can't play much better.
Speaker 3: I mean John Elway meets Cam Newton today. But yeah,
Speaker 3: you know, the Bills just find ways to lose games
Speaker 3: this year.
Speaker 1: I mean they had ten first half penalties, counted two drops. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean I think, you know, and I'll get into
Speaker 1: this later when you watch, like I watch what Sean
Speaker 1: Payton's doing in Denver, and they just don't make many mistakes.
Speaker 1: I don't think they're gifted. I think they have some
Speaker 1: really good players Buffalo. I mean I've compared them to
Speaker 1: Mike Tyson, like they don't. You know, Tyson at the
Speaker 1: end didn't have a jab, you know, left himself wide open,
Speaker 1: but he had this vicious power and so he you know,
Speaker 1: he swung from the heels. It was a little bit
Speaker 1: like Tiger coming out of his shoes as a golfer.
Speaker 1: It just made up if the Irons were off. And
Speaker 1: I look at Buffalo and I think, listen, you're not
Speaker 1: gonna there's not gonna be a game this year that
Speaker 1: Philadelphia probably won't play that poorly for a half they
Speaker 1: I mean, they may say there can be sluggish and
Speaker 1: to me, if Buffalo can't win this game, I mean,
Speaker 1: right now, John Denver is the hottest team in the league.
Speaker 1: Buffalo's if if if the Chargers win tonight, does Buffalo
Speaker 1: feel like a playoff team to you?
Speaker 3: They don't because they can't win the games that they
Speaker 3: have to win. And tonight was a great example of
Speaker 3: their quarterback can't play any better. Their quarterback. Really, this year,
Speaker 3: besides some of the primetime games, has been good. You know, statistically,
Speaker 3: he's top five in every metric. Some would argue he's
Speaker 3: been a top two or three quarterback. But today's a
Speaker 3: great example. Their defense let him down. To me, the
Speaker 3: final drive that led to the sixty yard field goal
Speaker 3: and then the final drive that led to the touchdown
Speaker 3: in overtime. I don't understand why you completely just let
Speaker 3: them get easy completions when all game long you have
Speaker 3: been playing normal defense. If they beat it, they beat it.
Speaker 3: It's a rainstorm. That field is slippery. Okay, if they
Speaker 3: make hit some miraculous play, you tip your hat. But
Speaker 3: to just play you know whatever, eight ten, twelve yards
Speaker 3: off and give them completion after completion after completion. With
Speaker 3: this offense, they're too potent once they get close. You
Speaker 3: saw on the final touchdown with Jalen Hurts. At any
Speaker 3: moment he can run it. And obviously they just got
Speaker 3: in field goal range. And honestly, if it wasn't for
Speaker 3: a Hall of Fame center making a couple shitty weird plays,
Speaker 3: you know, the pre snap that cost him couple of yards,
Speaker 3: they would have had a fifty yard field goal, drove
Speaker 3: the field pretty easily. So yeah, I do not think
Speaker 3: Buffalo is a playoff team. I'm with you. Denver is
Speaker 3: playing much better on defense, and there's a belief. I
Speaker 3: don't see how you lose this game. If you're Buffalo
Speaker 3: and have any belief, you know that's I think this.
Speaker 3: You start looking around, you go what what else can
Speaker 3: we do?
Speaker 1: Time for another edition of sharp or Square. I did
Speaker 1: not do Thanksgiving picks. I think I would have been
Speaker 1: about two to two and one. I didn't think Dallas
Speaker 1: would cover the spread. Missed on the Lions, but had
Speaker 1: a couple other picks. So let's just start with this week.
Speaker 1: I've been taking more favorites. I think is the season
Speaker 1: Ebbs better quarterbacks because there's so many injuries, can overcome
Speaker 1: banged up rosters. So my first take is Chargers minus
Speaker 1: five and a half at New England. I do not
Speaker 1: believe the Patriots want to win. I believe they want
Speaker 1: the third pick. How do I know this because of
Speaker 1: some of the moves they've made in the secondary with
Speaker 1: plays deactivating them and releasing them. They did not want
Speaker 1: to beat the Giants they play. They don't announce the quarterback.
Speaker 1: I don't love the Chargers, but you have a staff
Speaker 1: playing for their lives. I'm taking the Chargers minus five
Speaker 1: and a half sharper square.
Speaker 4: Number one, Colin, if you didn't make any picks, you
Speaker 4: wouldn't have gone to two and one. You would have
Speaker 4: gone five and Uh that's just the way it goes.
Speaker 1: Number two.
Speaker 4: On this one, the wise guys are against you. The
Speaker 4: line was at six, it's moved down to five and
Speaker 4: a half. This is not about the Patriots. You're not
Speaker 4: finding wise guys who are saying, boy, I'm really excited
Speaker 4: to bet on Bailey Zappy and I think this team
Speaker 4: is really prime to do something great. It's fading the Chargers.
Speaker 4: You say this team is this coaching staff is fighting
Speaker 4: for its lives. I think it's already over. I think
Speaker 4: the wise guys think it's over. It's not a team
Speaker 4: that's in playoff contention. It's not a team that's going
Speaker 4: to make the playoffs. It's a team with an incredible
Speaker 4: amount of talent that continues to not be able to execute.
Speaker 4: There's no reason for this team to be a six
Speaker 4: point now five and a half point favorite on the road.
Speaker 4: It's not good enough defensively, they haven't proven to be
Speaker 4: good enough offensively in terms of executing. Keenan Allen has
Speaker 4: ninety seven receptions. He's second in the league in receiving yardage.
Speaker 4: It's the quietest, most irrelevant combination of great stats you're
Speaker 4: going to see from a wide receiver on a team
Speaker 4: that doesn't matter.
Speaker 1: It's not the best number. I thought. The bet of
Speaker 1: the week was the Niners plus points at the Eagles,
Speaker 1: but extra time to prepare for San Francisco, healthy, little
Speaker 1: revenge edge, and the number of snaps Philadelphia's defense not
Speaker 1: very good to begin with, was on the field. I'm
Speaker 1: still going to take the Niners. I think they could
Speaker 1: win by seven to ten. By the way, super Bowl
Speaker 1: champs dating back seven years on average have eight blowout wins.
Speaker 1: Philadelphia had two. They we think they're a super Bowl
Speaker 1: team because they're very good in these one possession games.
Speaker 1: So was Minnesota last year, the Seahawks two three years ago,
Speaker 1: the Cowboys three years ago. Those teams get eliminated fast
Speaker 1: in the playoffs. San Francisco is the better team. They
Speaker 1: win here by seven points. Sharper square, totally sharp.
Speaker 4: The wise guys were on this look Sunday night, it
Speaker 4: was moving from two and a half before the Bills
Speaker 4: game was over, it was down to San Francisco plus
Speaker 4: two and a half San Francisco plus one before the
Speaker 4: game was over. Literally, I was trying to make a
Speaker 4: bet on Sunday Night on the Niners at plus one,
Speaker 4: and before I could click done, the line moved from
Speaker 4: plus one to minus one Niners, and then it's gone
Speaker 4: up to two and a half. Every time it goes
Speaker 4: up to three, the wise guys take the Eagles of
Speaker 4: plus three, then the other wise guys take the Niners
Speaker 4: at minus two and a half. You said some really important.
Speaker 4: The Niners are blowing teams out when Deebo, Samuel and
Speaker 4: Trent Williams are playing, this team is eight to zero.
Speaker 4: They're winning by an average of twenty one points. The
Speaker 4: team has not played in ten days. They're as healthy
Speaker 4: as they've ever been. The Eagles, as you noted, had
Speaker 4: a lot of snaps. They played ninety five snaps in
Speaker 4: a really bloody war against the Bills in a rainy,
Speaker 4: rainy Sunday game. They have not had as much time
Speaker 4: to get healthy. And I was listening to other podcasts
Speaker 4: like NFL players, they talk on these podcasts. They made
Speaker 4: it one of those. Chris Long and his podcast made
Speaker 4: a really good point. Every hour counts when you are
Speaker 4: trying to recouper rate for the next week. This is
Speaker 4: not a good spot for the Eagles. Is why the
Speaker 4: wise guys have been all over the Niners.
Speaker 1: Not getting the mess number at all. I like the
Speaker 1: Lions minus four, but I'll take them minus four and
Speaker 1: a half. I think Dennis Allen is in the race
Speaker 1: for the worst coach in the league. I think they
Speaker 1: massively underachieved Derek Carr. You know, I always saw him
Speaker 1: as a life preserver of the Raiders. Maybe he's just
Speaker 1: checked down. Charlie and not very good. Lions have been
Speaker 1: beaten now not feeling good about themselves. I don't think
Speaker 1: the Saints can beat them at their weakness. I think
Speaker 1: Detroit humiliated extra time to prepare bounces back. I'll take
Speaker 1: them to cover. Not the best number. Sharper square.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's there's not a consensus on this game. The
Speaker 4: wise guys lean Saints. It's why the number has sort
Speaker 4: of stayed where it is because the majority of the action,
Speaker 4: the public action, is all coming in on the Lions,
Speaker 4: and we saw it like, and it's been at four
Speaker 4: basically since Monday. And when there's that much money coming
Speaker 4: in on one side and the line really doesn't move,
Speaker 4: it's because the wise guys are sort of anchoring it
Speaker 4: in place, right, And so you know that the wise
Speaker 4: guys have been taken the Saints here. It's not like
Speaker 4: it's going to be their biggest bet of the week.
Speaker 4: There are other games that the wise guys love a
Speaker 4: lot more, but they like the number here, not because
Speaker 4: of what the Saints can do or necessarily what the
Speaker 4: Lions can't do. The last couple of weeks, Jared Goff
Speaker 4: hasn't played as well right, and Dan Campbell, who's a
Speaker 4: brilliant football coach, also has an incredibly good offensive line,
Speaker 4: and he's got two really good running backs, and playing
Speaker 4: against the Saints, he has an opportunity to control the
Speaker 4: clock and let those guys run. It shortens the game,
Speaker 4: but it also means potentially less scoring, so it just
Speaker 4: might not be as big of a margin, which is
Speaker 4: why the wise guys like the Saints.
Speaker 1: A game I'm betting solely because of the number. I
Speaker 1: think the Texans probably win, but I would take Denver
Speaker 1: plus three and a half I worry about the regression
Speaker 1: of the turnovers, which have gone all Denver's way in
Speaker 1: the last month, but they've also created many of those.
Speaker 1: The thing about Denver is their defense now is a story,
Speaker 1: and their run game they don't make mistakes. They keep
Speaker 1: it very much in the fairway. Houston's still young. CJ.
Speaker 1: Strout is still young. He will face pressure. I think
Speaker 1: it's a field goal game. But the hook, I'd take
Speaker 1: Denver plus three and a half. You know, at this
Speaker 1: point in the year, you take the hook if you
Speaker 1: feel strongly about a team. Denver's won five straight. It's
Speaker 1: not luck. They're creating a lot of their own opportunities.
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson now making more plays, running more run games,
Speaker 1: very solid and both can also be active in the
Speaker 1: screen game. I'll take Denver in the point Sharper Square.
Speaker 4: The coaches you want to bet on the past twenty
Speaker 4: years Colin, Mike Vrabel, Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, Sean Payton,
Speaker 4: and before the past couple of years, Bill Belichick. Those
Speaker 4: guys cash tickets. They are profitable coaches. By the way,
Speaker 4: Dennis Allen, I meant to mention this one hundred and
Speaker 4: forty three coaches in the past twenty years, he's one
Speaker 4: hundred and forty second as the least profitable coach. So
Speaker 4: one more reason why you might be right to bet
Speaker 4: the Lions. But I think that the hook, what you're
Speaker 4: talking about, getting the hook is the right side here.
Speaker 4: Whyse guys have been a little bit all over this one,
Speaker 4: like getting bet at hard when it was a two
Speaker 4: and half for the Texans, it's gotten to three and
Speaker 4: a half. They've come back a little bit on the Broncos.
Speaker 4: I think they are just playing the number. If it's
Speaker 4: below three, they're playing the Texans. If it's above three,
Speaker 4: they're playing the Broncos.
Speaker 1: Okay, the Packers or the side I would imagine at
Speaker 1: plus five and a half and Mahomes is a bad
Speaker 1: cover if it's over like four or five. I do
Speaker 1: think Kansas City found a little bit of their way
Speaker 1: in the second half. I think Hrashi Rice is starting
Speaker 1: to look like a one. Jordan Love is overvalued. The
Speaker 1: Chargers and the Lions secondaries are really really bad, and
Speaker 1: Kansas City's isn't. I'm going to bet the Chiefs. I
Speaker 1: know it's square.
Speaker 4: Comment on it, Well, it's square just as but it's interesting.
Speaker 4: It's interesting because this is a game the Wise guys
Speaker 4: have sort of planted a flag in the sand on
Speaker 4: and they've decided that Jordan Love since week nine is
Speaker 4: a top five quarterback. And there are a lot of stats,
Speaker 4: a lot of the advanced metrics. You can look at
Speaker 4: EPA things like that, they will tell you that Jordan
Speaker 4: Love has been incredibly good the past five weeks. And
Speaker 4: you can also look at what the Chiefs have done
Speaker 4: and take last week against the Raiders with a grain
Speaker 4: of salt. They have been terrible in the second half.
Speaker 4: Second half unders with the Chiefs this year eleven and zero.
Speaker 4: They are not a team scoring in the second half.
Speaker 4: So what the Wise guys are banking on is an
Speaker 4: improving quarterback against a team that has not been scoring
Speaker 4: in the second half, and the opportunity to keep the
Speaker 4: game close when they are at home as a big underdog,
Speaker 4: and especially these primetime games, they have been trending towards
Speaker 4: the under and so when you have a game that
Speaker 4: is going to be low scoring, the bigger underdog tends
Speaker 4: to cover.
Speaker 1: Chad Milman CCO Action Network. All is provided by DraftKings.
Speaker 1: Good to see anybody, Good to see you too. Man.
Speaker 3: The volume,