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Speaker 1: The volume. This week on Prime Cuch Chad Millman, Sharper

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Speaker 1: Square Nick right on if Jim Harball makes the leap

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Speaker 1: back to the NFL in my Top takes of the week.

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Speaker 1: So the knock in the Cowboys was going into this game.

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Speaker 1: They'd beaten the Giants twice, the Jets, Washington, New England,

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Speaker 1: Carolina beat up Rams team, and the Chargers, well, Rams

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Speaker 1: are now pretty good. Chargers are talented. You know, Seattle's competent,

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Speaker 1: Washington's always in most games. They're a nine and three

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Speaker 1: football team. I don't think there is talented as San Francisco,

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Speaker 1: but I do think they present some things where you

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Speaker 1: can argue they can go toe to toe and beat Philadelphia.

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Speaker 1: And the number one reason is the Cowboys have seven

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Speaker 1: blowout wins, and over the last decade, nine of ten

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl teams have averaged seven to eight blowout wins.

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Speaker 1: Dallas has seven, Philadelphia has two. So San Francisco and

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Speaker 1: Dallas are the two teams in the NFC that blow

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Speaker 1: people out. They flex because they can. Philadelphia had love

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Speaker 1: to blow people out, but they can't. They're back end

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Speaker 1: of their defense is weak. Offensively, Jalen Hurts is terrific,

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Speaker 1: but he has become a very good second half quarterback

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Speaker 1: and can struggle in the first half. They've trailed their

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Speaker 1: last four games at half, so I think if you're

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Speaker 1: a Dallas Cowboy fan, I've always had the kind of

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Speaker 1: the same feeling about the Cowboys for the last twenty

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Speaker 1: five years. I always say Tony Romo is pretty good,

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys are pretty good, Jason Garrett was pretty good,

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Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy's pretty good, Dak's pretty good, and I'm always right.

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Speaker 1: They always went about nine or ten games, maybe eleven twelve,

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Speaker 1: But I never feel that our super Bowl team. I

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Speaker 1: do believe if Ceedee Lamb stays healthy and Tyron Smith

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Speaker 1: the left tackle, stay healthy because Dak's having a good

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Speaker 1: year and McCarthy's obviously elevating DAK, that if they can

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Speaker 1: stay healthy with Tyron Smith, Ferguson's you know product, and

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Speaker 1: Ceedee Lamb, they can win shootouts and they're good enough defensively,

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Speaker 1: there'll be a good team playing with a lead because

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Speaker 1: of the pass rush. I do wish they went and

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Speaker 1: acquired like a Dereck Henry at the trade deadline. I

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Speaker 1: think what they really miss is they have a lead

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Speaker 1: in the game and they just want to eat the clock.

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Speaker 1: They want to power run it, and they're not. Really

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Speaker 1: that's not what they're built to do. They can score,

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Speaker 1: they can score quickly, they can score a lot, but

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Speaker 1: I don't I feel like they missed sort of that

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Speaker 1: power offense where they could just hand it off to

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Speaker 1: a Derek Henry and just say six minute drive, let's

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Speaker 1: pick up first downs, never drop back to throw so

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Speaker 1: and I think San Francisco can do that, Philadelphia can

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Speaker 1: do that, the better teams Baltimore can do that, the

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Speaker 1: better teams in the league can do it, and I

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Speaker 1: don't think Dallas can. But we have to be honest

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Speaker 1: about Mike McCarthy. We have to be fair and reasonable.

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Speaker 1: And Mike McCarthy has taken Dak Prescott, you know, a

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Speaker 1: couple of years ago pretty ugly in Michael Gallup's never

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Speaker 1: been what they thought. Brandon Cooks isn't what everybody promised

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Speaker 1: he would be. They lost Dalton Schultz, they couldn't afford

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Speaker 1: him Amari Cooper, and you look up today. Dallas's good

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Speaker 1: football team. And I've been calling them pretty good for

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Speaker 1: twenty five years. I think they're very good. I think

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Speaker 1: They're a very good football team. And I haven't gone

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Speaker 1: pretty good to very good in Dallas many times. But

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Speaker 1: you can't get too caught up on the fact that

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Speaker 1: their defense gave up a bunch of points tonight. Listen,

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Speaker 1: it's the NFL, it's in college football. DK Metcalf was

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Speaker 1: a huge matchup problem. Seattle's got Lockett the rookie receiver,

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Speaker 1: no offense, a huge body, DJ Metcalf, and I thought

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Speaker 1: their offensive line tonight, you know, created some holes early,

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Speaker 1: especially on the ground. You know, Seattle's got a lot

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Speaker 1: of talent. They've Shane Waldron's a respected offensive coordinator. You're

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Speaker 1: not going to throw shutouts right that. The defensive rules

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Speaker 1: don't allow it. You're not keeping talented teams and veteran

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Speaker 1: coaching staff to seventeen points every week. It happens. But

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Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna go from pretty good to very

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Speaker 1: good for the Cowboys. And I have not done that much,

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Speaker 1: And Mike McCarthy deserves credit, and I've been critical, But

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Speaker 1: dex twenty nine to forty one, three hundred yards, three dds,

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Speaker 1: no picks. That's big boy football. How about them Cowboys?

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Speaker 1: David Tepper firing Frank Wright. I have talked about this

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Speaker 1: and about the low hit rate on quarterbacks in the NFL,

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Speaker 1: and I think a lot of it is the business

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Speaker 1: side of the NFL. All these owners are now billionaires,

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Speaker 1: so they look at a coaching contract where they owe

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Speaker 1: a coach seventy million dollars, sixty million dollars, fifty million dollars.

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Speaker 1: It's a rounding air. It wasn't when owners were making,

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Speaker 1: you know, twenty five million a year and had a

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Speaker 1: net worth of four hundred million. They would not just

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Speaker 1: write off a coach after twelve games, thirteen games. But

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Speaker 1: now these guys are all worth six billion dollars, fourteen

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Speaker 1: billion dollars, twenty billion dollars. David Tepper is I think

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Speaker 1: first or second third richest owner. He's just going to

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Speaker 1: write it off. And so what happens is Bryce Young

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Speaker 1: now gets another coordinator, another staff, another system, and that

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Speaker 1: will stunt the growth of Bryce Young. And I think

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Speaker 1: part of why all these young quarterbacks Tom Brady talked

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Speaker 1: about the league football is not as good as it

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Speaker 1: was years ago because there was more stability. It's hard

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Speaker 1: enough to be a quarterback in this league. I mean

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Speaker 1: Bryce Young, he got a new coach, new system, new coordinator,

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Speaker 1: new quarterback coach. You not even through year one, they're

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Speaker 1: already got rid of their guy. And so I think

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Speaker 1: when something is hard to do, franchise quarterback play in

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Speaker 1: the NFL, and then you add chaos and change to

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Speaker 1: it makes it twice as tough. So, you know, Tom

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Speaker 1: and Tom Brady said, you know, quality of play in

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Speaker 1: the NFL is worse. Ownership is richer, more impatient, more meddling,

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Speaker 1: more impulsive, more willing to make radical and quick changes,

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Speaker 1: which makes it harder to quarterback. Does it make it

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Speaker 1: harder to be a good running back or a good

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Speaker 1: corner or a talented left tackle? The quarterback is all

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Speaker 1: about coaching and system and momentum and protection and chemistry

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Speaker 1: and choreography. And if you're constantly changing coordinators. I've said

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Speaker 1: this about Justin Herbert. He's on his third coordinator and

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Speaker 1: his second head coach. What is he in year five?

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of change, and it just makes it

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Speaker 1: really difficult. So I don't think I think there's a

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Speaker 1: direct correlation to quality of quarterback play and quality of football,

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Speaker 1: you know, And a great example, I mean, I think

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Speaker 1: a really great example of this is C. J. Stroud.

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Speaker 1: Nobody wanted to watch the Texans the last seven or

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Speaker 1: eight years, six or seven years, c J. Stroud. Now

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Speaker 1: they play Jacksonville this weekend. Highly entertaining, highly entertaining. I

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Speaker 1: mean Russell Wilson gets the right coach. I like watch

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Speaker 1: the Denver Broncos now young, tough defense, They can throw

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Speaker 1: the ball, they run, they power run it got Mims,

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Speaker 1: They've got Jerry Judy, they got Courtland Sutton, they have

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Speaker 1: capable tight ends. I like their running backs. Denver all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden, same rosters last year, but the quality

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Speaker 1: of quarterback efficiency's gone up. Broncos are now a fun watch.

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Speaker 1: Broncos are like, okay, they can move the change. They've

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Speaker 1: won five straight. It's all the same players that six

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Speaker 1: weeks ago. It's all the same players last year except

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Speaker 1: the left tackles here and healthy. But I don't think

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Speaker 1: the quality of plays worse than the NFL. I think

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Speaker 1: the impatience of owners and the constant influx of change

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Speaker 1: has made it harder to be a franchise quarterback as

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Speaker 1: a young quarterback. And that's what it looks like. Drek uneven, inefficient,

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Speaker 1: it's not good. But when you get good quarterback play

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Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts Josh Allen. It's great television. It's fantastic television.

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Speaker 1: You know. I went to watch Bonix Oregon play Michael

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Speaker 1: Pennox Washington's one of the best college games I've ever

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Speaker 1: been to. I watched Matt Lioner at USC play Vince

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Speaker 1: Young Texas years ago, years and years and years ago.

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Speaker 1: It's one of the best college games I've ever seen. So,

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Speaker 1: you know, you can have the world's greatest athletes. New

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Speaker 1: England with Brady defensive culture couldn't turn them off. Matt

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Speaker 1: Jones Bailey's appy unwatchable, simple as that football is not worse.

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Speaker 1: Impatience is at an all time high. Top down. Puts

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Speaker 1: pressure on the coach, the quarterback, the coordinators. It's not good.

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Speaker 1: Carolina embarrassing, not good. The Rams right now, believe it

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Speaker 1: or not, are in a dog fight for a wild

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Speaker 1: card spot in the NFC. And so this this was

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Speaker 1: a team Vegas had their over under at about five.

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Speaker 1: And I had said in the off season I had

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Speaker 1: to talk myself out of putting them in the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: because I said, if you have a really smart offensive

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Speaker 1: coach and a really talented quarterback and at least one

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Speaker 1: big time weapon. Sean McVay, Matt Stafford coover Cup. You know,

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Speaker 1: they had a couple offensive lineman I liked and could

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Speaker 1: tie to end. Tyler Higbe. You had a couple of

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Speaker 1: touchdowns today against Arizona. I'm like that. That's a team

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Speaker 1: battling for the playoffs. But because they had so many

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Speaker 1: young players defensively, you know, my takeaway was they probably

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Speaker 1: won't they won't stop people. Well, Raheem Morris has been

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Speaker 1: a great defensive coordinator for them. But it's really the

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Speaker 1: Rams kind of ironically have become the opposite of the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: Where the Chargers are constantly underachieving, the Rams are the opposite.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you really look at what this year

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Speaker 1: was outside of Aaron Donald, it is a bunch of kids.

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Speaker 1: There is no money on the defensive side at all,

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Speaker 1: and they're playing very well now. They were physically controlled

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Speaker 1: by the Philadelphia Eagles, a stacked, often veteran roster. Outside

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Speaker 1: of that, they have been in every game this year

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Speaker 1: and have beaten teams swept Seattle and it's just coaching. Mcvea.

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Speaker 1: Oon's Pete Carroll, Stafford's better than Geno Smith. But the Rams.

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Speaker 1: I mean, even if you go back to their Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl year, it took Matt Stafford. You know, they were

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Speaker 1: struggling a couple of blowout losses. You know that they

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Speaker 1: had cam Akers, who they liked but didn't love. He

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Speaker 1: had a bit of a fumble problem. They almost blew

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Speaker 1: that game in Tampa because of cam Aker fumbles. You know,

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Speaker 1: it was a team that had Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald,

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Speaker 1: but Jalen Ramsey would bite and get burned over the

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Speaker 1: top a lot. That was a team that was trying

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Speaker 1: to kind of figure and find its way, and they

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Speaker 1: eventually did for a Super Bowl. But I mean, I

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Speaker 1: would say for a majority of the year, we did

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Speaker 1: not look at that Rams team as a super Bowl team.

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Speaker 1: They had some ugly, ugly losses and they just kind

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Speaker 1: of find ways to win. With Sean McVay, now he

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Speaker 1: struggles in the regular season against Kyle Shanahan of the

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Speaker 1: forty nine ers. They just don't match up particularly well

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Speaker 1: with them. But outside of that matchup, I'm watching the

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Speaker 1: Rams this year. The play calling, Now, Arizona's not a

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Speaker 1: great team. Nobody thinks they are. The play calling today though,

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Speaker 1: I mean, Cooper cup is not one hundred percent. If

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Speaker 1: you watch the game today, he is his first catch

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Speaker 1: of the game, he's limping. They got Williams backed Kyron

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Speaker 1: Williams are a very nice running back, very shifty, very clever,

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Speaker 1: and that gives them kind of a one to two

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Speaker 1: punch at running back and wide receiver. But this is

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Speaker 1: a team that I would argue doesn't have a single

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Speaker 1: great player in their prime. Aaron Donald's not, Cooper Cup

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Speaker 1: is not, Matt Stafford's not. Rob Hevenstein is a good,

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Speaker 1: good right tackle, but he's not in his prime. They

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Speaker 1: don't have a single great player in their prime. Now

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Speaker 1: go to the Philadelphia Eagles. In contrast, Jalen Hurts, great

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Speaker 1: player in his prime. AJ Brown great receiver in his prime,

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Speaker 1: Davonte Smith excellent player in his prime. Their left tackle

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Speaker 1: young player PFF, top graded left tackle in his prime.

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Speaker 1: That's just on the offensive side, is stacked and will

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Speaker 1: probably win the Super Bowl. If you go to the

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Speaker 1: forty nine Ers, Fred Warner I thinks in his prime,

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Speaker 1: late prime, but you know Bosa in his prime, Debo

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Speaker 1: in his prime, Brandon Ayuk just moving into his prime.

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Speaker 1: Rams don't have one. So this is a team there

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Speaker 1: are certain teams in this league, the Chargers being won,

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Speaker 1: Buffalo another that kind of find ways to lose. You know,

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Speaker 1: the Rams being a viable playoff team with this roster

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Speaker 1: is I mean, they've been moving offensive line pieces around,

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Speaker 1: going to get running backs off the street. Needed Pooka

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Speaker 1: Nakua the fifth round wide receiver. Early when Cooper cup

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Speaker 1: was out to produce offense on the perimeter to two

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Speaker 1: out Well was a bus seemingly at wide receiver. He's

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Speaker 1: now semi viable big play receiver. They are just coaching

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Speaker 1: and drafting and development, and I mean, in the same build,

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Speaker 1: you've got a team that finds ways to lose and

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Speaker 1: a team that finds ways to win. There's no way

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Speaker 1: the Rams should be a more viable playoff team this

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Speaker 1: year than the Chargers. Again, Chargers justin Herbert in his prime.

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Speaker 1: They're left tackle Slater in his prime. It was a

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Speaker 1: great players, Derwin James in his prime, Bosa in his prime.

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Speaker 1: You know several high end players. Rams don't have one.

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Speaker 1: They have good players, no great players though in the

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Speaker 1: middle in the meat of their career. You know, I've

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Speaker 1: said before, we're all morally flexible. Okay, we're all morally flexible.

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Speaker 1: We all speed. I drove about eighty getting to my

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Speaker 1: house today. That I don't have a speeding ticket. You know,

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Speaker 1: if I got through a school district, I wouldn't. But

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Speaker 1: it was all like, you know, just freeways and stuff.

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Speaker 1: And it is interesting the position that I and you're

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Speaker 1: not a big college football fan, but it's beyond that

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Speaker 1: that I know Jim Harbaugh's program did something that appears

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Speaker 1: to be deceptive, but it doesn't bother me. And the

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Speaker 1: reason it doesn't bother me is because, and it's probably

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Speaker 1: two or three different reasons. One, it's like taxes. If

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Speaker 1: I write off a bottle of wine, I'm not the first,

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Speaker 1: and I'm kind of a sucker if I don't, right like,

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Speaker 1: at some point you're like eh. And the other thing

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Speaker 1: about it is I feel, deep down because this has

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Speaker 1: been sourced multiple times, there's been so much cheating going on,

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Speaker 1: and I don't think Harbaugh and Michigan's history indicates they

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Speaker 1: ever bought players or skirted the system. But I sort

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Speaker 1: of feel like a lot of people that are pissed

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Speaker 1: off are southern college football fans who now acknowledge, you know,

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Speaker 1: Michigan and everybody can buy players too, and now the

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Speaker 1: nil and transfer portal, it's even the playing field out

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Speaker 1: and I think that, combined with Harbaugh's unique personality, I'm

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Speaker 1: rooting for Jim to not be punished too severely.

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Speaker 2: Welly, listen, I agree with almost all of that, and

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Speaker 2: so a few things. One is, it's also bad for

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Speaker 2: college football if he's punished super severely, because it makes

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Speaker 2: it more likely he leaves college football, and Jim Harbaugh's

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Speaker 2: good for college football. Nobody benefits from Jim Harbaugh going

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Speaker 2: to coach the Bears other than potentially the Bears, and

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Speaker 2: so he's good for college football. I also don't think

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of people out actually outraged by this.

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Speaker 2: I think there are people that either at an axe

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Speaker 2: to grind or have their own purposes served by Michigan

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Speaker 2: being dinged, that are acting like they are deeply morally outraged.

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Speaker 2: I'm not acting like there aren't moral outrages in sports.

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Speaker 2: There are. Sometimes It almost always to me, involves off

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Speaker 2: field violence, particularly off field violence towards can't really defend themselves.

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Speaker 2: And you know, I'm not I've never been one that's

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Speaker 2: I'm not that outraged by when pre and il guys

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Speaker 2: paid for players. I wasn't that outrage. I'm not that

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Speaker 2: outraged by a pro athlete getting in a bar fight.

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Speaker 2: There are different things though that everybody knows what they

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Speaker 2: are where you're like, no, that's beyond the pale, and

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Speaker 2: it makes me feel kind of scummy rooting for this

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Speaker 2: guy or this team. And that's but this was not

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Speaker 2: a hard one for me. It did not seem like

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Speaker 2: now there are and so we all have different lines.

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Speaker 2: If the scandal was and maybe people will say, Nick,

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Speaker 2: you're just drawing totally arbitrary lines, so be it. If

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Speaker 2: this was the allegation at Michigan Stadium, at the Big House,

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Speaker 2: they would systematically cut off the ability for the imposing

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Speaker 2: team to communicate coach to quarterback in key moments. I

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Speaker 2: would think that is a massive violation, that is to me,

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Speaker 2: And again I don't know why that is in one.

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Speaker 1: Category set the rule. There were camquarders. It would have

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Speaker 1: been very difficult to get those tickets that would have

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Speaker 1: taken you a week, and camcorders set up in a

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Speaker 1: room in an office. People, this is CD iPhone.

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Speaker 2: It just isn't the same exactly right, And it also

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Speaker 2: didn't it felt like whenever there is a system that

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Speaker 2: is built around the assumption there is some level of cheating,

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Speaker 2: that cheating existing doesn't bother me that much. And by

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Speaker 2: that I mean the reason college football has four guys

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Speaker 2: faces on a placard as a sign and then they

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Speaker 2: change it up or all these things is because there

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Speaker 2: is the assumption as some of our signs might be

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Speaker 2: stolen at some point. Nobody thinks that's not happening. Ever,

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Speaker 2: so this one didn't. I agree with you on this.

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Speaker 2: This one didn't rise to the level of felony. Now,

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Speaker 2: with that said, what did I don't want to say

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Speaker 2: bother me, but at least I found a little irritating

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Speaker 2: was Michigan acting like they are this persecuted, you know,

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Speaker 2: totally innocent babe in the woods and the Michigan I

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Speaker 2: understand in sports, but the Michigan versus everybody and this

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Speaker 2: idea that they have been wronged. I don't think Michigan

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Speaker 2: has been wronged. I don't think they're the victim. But

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Speaker 2: I also don't think they victimized anyone on any substantial level.

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Speaker 2: And I think this. I think they're the best college

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Speaker 2: football team in the country. You're right, I don't watch

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Speaker 2: nearly as much as you do. But I watch the

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Speaker 2: biggest games, and I'm very familiar with the teams that

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Speaker 2: are in the argument for the best college football team

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Speaker 2: in the country. And i know Georgia fans are gonna

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Speaker 2: be like, we haven't lost in three years, maybe it

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Speaker 2: should be us. I get that. I think Michigan has

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Speaker 2: just can can beat you in almost every way. I

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Speaker 2: don't think that. I don't think they're gonna beat you

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Speaker 2: forty nine to forty five. I understand that. Yeah, but

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Speaker 2: their defensive too good in my opinion, to let a

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Speaker 2: game get to forty nine forty five. And so I

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Speaker 2: just I'm really impressed by them. I'm really impressed by them,

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Speaker 2: and I'll be surprised if Iowa score seven points. I

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Speaker 2: know that game is on Fox everyone who you watch it,

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Speaker 2: but I'll be by.

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Speaker 1: Our judicial system. Our judicial system has layers of crimes,

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Speaker 1: like levels of crimes. And this, of course is like speeding. Yes,

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Speaker 1: Jim went too fast and probably flipped the burden the

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Speaker 1: Maserati going ninety two at eighty in an Acura. It

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Speaker 1: wouldn't have been outrageous, but it was kind of in

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Speaker 1: your face over the top. If it's true, right, it

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Speaker 1: was a little, but it's still speeding. It's not it's

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Speaker 1: not burglary, it's it.

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Speaker 2: Is yeah, correct, this is this is at worse, to

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Speaker 2: use the judicial analogy, the most severe misdemeanor. It does

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Speaker 2: not qualify as like the least severe felony. This is

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Speaker 2: at most like walking out of the supermarket and with

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Speaker 2: something in your you know, doing the self checkout and

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Speaker 2: being like, oh, I forgot the stuff at the bottom

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Speaker 2: of my cart. I'm sorry, Like, yeah, you might, they

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Speaker 2: might even give you a coordinate for it, but it's

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Speaker 2: not for you. Probably don't need to hire an attorney.

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Speaker 2: Like that's to me the level that that it was at.

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Speaker 2: And also that's why your since your show does your

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Speaker 2: pod and your show does a substantial mound of college football,

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Speaker 2: you guys talked about it. We on my pod and

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Speaker 2: on my TV show. We haven't talked about it once,

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Speaker 2: like like, it's just not our Like I don't think

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Speaker 2: but if it was a true scandal, it was, we

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Speaker 2: would We don't talk a ton of baseball. When the

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Speaker 2: Astros thing was going on, we at least talked about

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Speaker 2: that and what it meant. And again that felt different.

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Speaker 2: Maybe this is me sounding like an old man. But

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Speaker 2: it felt different because they're the allegation of using course

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Speaker 2: like high level technology. Felt like it was different than

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Speaker 2: you know what I mean, My guy at second base

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Speaker 2: can see the sign the catchers giving and we got

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Speaker 2: a little system built in. It just felt different, all right.

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Speaker 1: John Middlecoff, former NFL scout on the Three and Out

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Speaker 1: podcast for the volume Let's Start. Philadelphia plays about as

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Speaker 1: poorly as they can possibly play. This is the team

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Speaker 1: you used to scout for. They have made sort of

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Speaker 1: an art form out of sluggish wins. It's probably why

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Speaker 1: I think I give them. I'd make them the favorite

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Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl this year. I thought they

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Speaker 1: were so. In fact, it was my DraftKings bet of

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Speaker 1: the week. I thought Buffalo and four and a half

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Speaker 1: was a great bet. Did you have your doubts in

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Speaker 1: this one because it was so sloppy early?

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean felt like a lock Buffalo win when

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Speaker 3: it was twenty four to fourteen and they were in

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Speaker 3: complete control, and then it went touchdown Josh Allen interception touchdown,

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Speaker 3: and then they got the lead, and then he s went, well,

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Speaker 3: this is the Philadelphia team we've seen all year. Because

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Speaker 3: I don't think there's any player in the NFL who

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Speaker 3: has looked as poorly in their parts of games and

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Speaker 3: then turned the switch and look like an MVP again.

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Speaker 3: And maybe it's you know, Romo. They talked about that.

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Speaker 3: Whatever it is, the deep thigh brews or the injury

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Speaker 3: that he's dealing with, it's not something that you know,

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Speaker 3: you just you got a pain tolerance. Maybe as the

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Speaker 3: game goes on.

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Speaker 1: He gets a little looser.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, because early on in games, there is no elite

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Speaker 3: player who plays as crappy in the first half as Jalen.

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Speaker 3: You look up at of stats early on in the

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Speaker 3: first half, he barely had over he had under forty

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Speaker 3: yards passing. Yeah, and then all of a sudden, you

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Speaker 3: look at the end of the game, You're like, I

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Speaker 3: thought the guy was awesome. You know, it's he's been

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Speaker 3: a he's been a crazy roller coaster ride. And it

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Speaker 3: goes back. You know, Josh Allen can't play much better.

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Speaker 3: I mean John Elway meets Cam Newton today. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: you know, the Bills just find ways to lose games

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Speaker 3: this year.

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Speaker 1: I mean they had ten first half penalties, counted two drops. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean I think, you know, and I'll get into

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Speaker 1: this later when you watch, like I watch what Sean

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Speaker 1: Payton's doing in Denver, and they just don't make many mistakes.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they're gifted. I think they have some

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Speaker 1: really good players Buffalo. I mean I've compared them to

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Speaker 1: Mike Tyson, like they don't. You know, Tyson at the

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Speaker 1: end didn't have a jab, you know, left himself wide open,

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Speaker 1: but he had this vicious power and so he you know,

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Speaker 1: he swung from the heels. It was a little bit

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Speaker 1: like Tiger coming out of his shoes as a golfer.

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Speaker 1: It just made up if the Irons were off. And

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Speaker 1: I look at Buffalo and I think, listen, you're not

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Speaker 1: gonna there's not gonna be a game this year that

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Speaker 1: Philadelphia probably won't play that poorly for a half they

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Speaker 1: I mean, they may say there can be sluggish and

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Speaker 1: to me, if Buffalo can't win this game, I mean,

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Speaker 1: right now, John Denver is the hottest team in the league.

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Speaker 1: Buffalo's if if if the Chargers win tonight, does Buffalo

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Speaker 1: feel like a playoff team to you?

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Speaker 3: They don't because they can't win the games that they

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Speaker 3: have to win. And tonight was a great example of

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Speaker 3: their quarterback can't play any better. Their quarterback. Really, this year,

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Speaker 3: besides some of the primetime games, has been good. You know, statistically,

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Speaker 3: he's top five in every metric. Some would argue he's

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Speaker 3: been a top two or three quarterback. But today's a

425
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,600
Speaker 3: great example. Their defense let him down. To me, the

426
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 3: final drive that led to the sixty yard field goal

427
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:25,400
Speaker 3: and then the final drive that led to the touchdown

428
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:29,000
Speaker 3: in overtime. I don't understand why you completely just let

429
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 3: them get easy completions when all game long you have

430
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:34,680
Speaker 3: been playing normal defense. If they beat it, they beat it.

431
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 3: It's a rainstorm. That field is slippery. Okay, if they

432
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:41,119
Speaker 3: make hit some miraculous play, you tip your hat. But

433
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,399
Speaker 3: to just play you know whatever, eight ten, twelve yards

434
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,119
Speaker 3: off and give them completion after completion after completion. With

435
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:49,760
Speaker 3: this offense, they're too potent once they get close. You

436
00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:52,400
Speaker 3: saw on the final touchdown with Jalen Hurts. At any

437
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:54,880
Speaker 3: moment he can run it. And obviously they just got

438
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:56,920
Speaker 3: in field goal range. And honestly, if it wasn't for

439
00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 3: a Hall of Fame center making a couple shitty weird plays,

440
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:03,240
Speaker 3: you know, the pre snap that cost him couple of yards,

441
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 3: they would have had a fifty yard field goal, drove

442
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:07,680
Speaker 3: the field pretty easily. So yeah, I do not think

443
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 3: Buffalo is a playoff team. I'm with you. Denver is

444
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 3: playing much better on defense, and there's a belief. I

445
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:15,680
Speaker 3: don't see how you lose this game. If you're Buffalo

446
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 3: and have any belief, you know that's I think this.

447
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:21,200
Speaker 3: You start looking around, you go what what else can

448
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 3: we do?

449
00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:25,040
Speaker 1: Time for another edition of sharp or Square. I did

450
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:26,919
Speaker 1: not do Thanksgiving picks. I think I would have been

451
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:30,439
Speaker 1: about two to two and one. I didn't think Dallas

452
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:33,600
Speaker 1: would cover the spread. Missed on the Lions, but had

453
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:36,479
Speaker 1: a couple other picks. So let's just start with this week.

454
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 1: I've been taking more favorites. I think is the season

455
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:44,360
Speaker 1: Ebbs better quarterbacks because there's so many injuries, can overcome

456
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 1: banged up rosters. So my first take is Chargers minus

457
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 1: five and a half at New England. I do not

458
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 1: believe the Patriots want to win. I believe they want

459
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 1: the third pick. How do I know this because of

460
00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:59,720
Speaker 1: some of the moves they've made in the secondary with

461
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 1: plays deactivating them and releasing them. They did not want

462
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:07,560
Speaker 1: to beat the Giants they play. They don't announce the quarterback.

463
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 1: I don't love the Chargers, but you have a staff

464
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:14,440
Speaker 1: playing for their lives. I'm taking the Chargers minus five

465
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:15,680
Speaker 1: and a half sharper square.

466
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:19,359
Speaker 4: Number one, Colin, if you didn't make any picks, you

467
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:22,040
Speaker 4: wouldn't have gone to two and one. You would have

468
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:24,879
Speaker 4: gone five and Uh that's just the way it goes.

469
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 1: Number two.

470
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 4: On this one, the wise guys are against you. The

471
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:31,920
Speaker 4: line was at six, it's moved down to five and

472
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:35,479
Speaker 4: a half. This is not about the Patriots. You're not

473
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 4: finding wise guys who are saying, boy, I'm really excited

474
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 4: to bet on Bailey Zappy and I think this team

475
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 4: is really prime to do something great. It's fading the Chargers.

476
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:47,960
Speaker 4: You say this team is this coaching staff is fighting

477
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:51,160
Speaker 4: for its lives. I think it's already over. I think

478
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 4: the wise guys think it's over. It's not a team

479
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 4: that's in playoff contention. It's not a team that's going

480
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 4: to make the playoffs. It's a team with an incredible

481
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 4: amount of talent that continues to not be able to execute.

482
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 4: There's no reason for this team to be a six

483
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 4: point now five and a half point favorite on the road.

484
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:14,879
Speaker 4: It's not good enough defensively, they haven't proven to be

485
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 4: good enough offensively in terms of executing. Keenan Allen has

486
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:24,679
Speaker 4: ninety seven receptions. He's second in the league in receiving yardage.

487
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:29,920
Speaker 4: It's the quietest, most irrelevant combination of great stats you're

488
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:31,920
Speaker 4: going to see from a wide receiver on a team

489
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:32,960
Speaker 4: that doesn't matter.

490
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 1: It's not the best number. I thought. The bet of

491
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:38,720
Speaker 1: the week was the Niners plus points at the Eagles,

492
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:44,520
Speaker 1: but extra time to prepare for San Francisco, healthy, little

493
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:48,119
Speaker 1: revenge edge, and the number of snaps Philadelphia's defense not

494
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,880
Speaker 1: very good to begin with, was on the field. I'm

495
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:52,720
Speaker 1: still going to take the Niners. I think they could

496
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 1: win by seven to ten. By the way, super Bowl

497
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:59,200
Speaker 1: champs dating back seven years on average have eight blowout wins.

498
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:03,399
Speaker 1: Philadelphia had two. They we think they're a super Bowl

499
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 1: team because they're very good in these one possession games.

500
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 1: So was Minnesota last year, the Seahawks two three years ago,

501
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 1: the Cowboys three years ago. Those teams get eliminated fast

502
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:17,959
Speaker 1: in the playoffs. San Francisco is the better team. They

503
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:21,879
Speaker 1: win here by seven points. Sharper square, totally sharp.

504
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:25,919
Speaker 4: The wise guys were on this look Sunday night, it

505
00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:29,200
Speaker 4: was moving from two and a half before the Bills

506
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,920
Speaker 4: game was over, it was down to San Francisco plus

507
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 4: two and a half San Francisco plus one before the

508
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 4: game was over. Literally, I was trying to make a

509
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 4: bet on Sunday Night on the Niners at plus one,

510
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 4: and before I could click done, the line moved from

511
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 4: plus one to minus one Niners, and then it's gone

512
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 4: up to two and a half. Every time it goes

513
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 4: up to three, the wise guys take the Eagles of

514
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:57,840
Speaker 4: plus three, then the other wise guys take the Niners

515
00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 4: at minus two and a half. You said some really important.

516
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:04,560
Speaker 4: The Niners are blowing teams out when Deebo, Samuel and

517
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 4: Trent Williams are playing, this team is eight to zero.

518
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 4: They're winning by an average of twenty one points. The

519
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 4: team has not played in ten days. They're as healthy

520
00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 4: as they've ever been. The Eagles, as you noted, had

521
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 4: a lot of snaps. They played ninety five snaps in

522
00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 4: a really bloody war against the Bills in a rainy,

523
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 4: rainy Sunday game. They have not had as much time

524
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 4: to get healthy. And I was listening to other podcasts

525
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:36,640
Speaker 4: like NFL players, they talk on these podcasts. They made

526
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 4: it one of those. Chris Long and his podcast made

527
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 4: a really good point. Every hour counts when you are

528
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 4: trying to recouper rate for the next week. This is

529
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 4: not a good spot for the Eagles. Is why the

530
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 4: wise guys have been all over the Niners.

531
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:51,840
Speaker 1: Not getting the mess number at all. I like the

532
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 1: Lions minus four, but I'll take them minus four and

533
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 1: a half. I think Dennis Allen is in the race

534
00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:58,840
Speaker 1: for the worst coach in the league. I think they

535
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 1: massively underachieved Derek Carr. You know, I always saw him

536
00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:05,960
Speaker 1: as a life preserver of the Raiders. Maybe he's just

537
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 1: checked down. Charlie and not very good. Lions have been

538
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 1: beaten now not feeling good about themselves. I don't think

539
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 1: the Saints can beat them at their weakness. I think

540
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 1: Detroit humiliated extra time to prepare bounces back. I'll take

541
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 1: them to cover. Not the best number. Sharper square.

542
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:26,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's there's not a consensus on this game. The

543
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 4: wise guys lean Saints. It's why the number has sort

544
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 4: of stayed where it is because the majority of the action,

545
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 4: the public action, is all coming in on the Lions,

546
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 4: and we saw it like, and it's been at four

547
00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:43,640
Speaker 4: basically since Monday. And when there's that much money coming

548
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:46,720
Speaker 4: in on one side and the line really doesn't move,

549
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 4: it's because the wise guys are sort of anchoring it

550
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:52,320
Speaker 4: in place, right, And so you know that the wise

551
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:55,239
Speaker 4: guys have been taken the Saints here. It's not like

552
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 4: it's going to be their biggest bet of the week.

553
00:30:57,240 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 4: There are other games that the wise guys love a

554
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:03,200
Speaker 4: lot more, but they like the number here, not because

555
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,360
Speaker 4: of what the Saints can do or necessarily what the

556
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 4: Lions can't do. The last couple of weeks, Jared Goff

557
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:12,480
Speaker 4: hasn't played as well right, and Dan Campbell, who's a

558
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 4: brilliant football coach, also has an incredibly good offensive line,

559
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 4: and he's got two really good running backs, and playing

560
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 4: against the Saints, he has an opportunity to control the

561
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 4: clock and let those guys run. It shortens the game,

562
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 4: but it also means potentially less scoring, so it just

563
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 4: might not be as big of a margin, which is

564
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 4: why the wise guys like the Saints.

565
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 1: A game I'm betting solely because of the number. I

566
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 1: think the Texans probably win, but I would take Denver

567
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 1: plus three and a half I worry about the regression

568
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:41,160
Speaker 1: of the turnovers, which have gone all Denver's way in

569
00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 1: the last month, but they've also created many of those.

570
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:47,320
Speaker 1: The thing about Denver is their defense now is a story,

571
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 1: and their run game they don't make mistakes. They keep

572
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:54,840
Speaker 1: it very much in the fairway. Houston's still young. CJ.

573
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 1: Strout is still young. He will face pressure. I think

574
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 1: it's a field goal game. But the hook, I'd take

575
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 1: Denver plus three and a half. You know, at this

576
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 1: point in the year, you take the hook if you

577
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 1: feel strongly about a team. Denver's won five straight. It's

578
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 1: not luck. They're creating a lot of their own opportunities.

579
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson now making more plays, running more run games,

580
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 1: very solid and both can also be active in the

581
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:20,640
Speaker 1: screen game. I'll take Denver in the point Sharper Square.

582
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 4: The coaches you want to bet on the past twenty

583
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:29,719
Speaker 4: years Colin, Mike Vrabel, Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, Sean Payton,

584
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 4: and before the past couple of years, Bill Belichick. Those

585
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 4: guys cash tickets. They are profitable coaches. By the way,

586
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 4: Dennis Allen, I meant to mention this one hundred and

587
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 4: forty three coaches in the past twenty years, he's one

588
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 4: hundred and forty second as the least profitable coach. So

589
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 4: one more reason why you might be right to bet

590
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:51,720
Speaker 4: the Lions. But I think that the hook, what you're

591
00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 4: talking about, getting the hook is the right side here.

592
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 4: Whyse guys have been a little bit all over this one,

593
00:32:58,080 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 4: like getting bet at hard when it was a two

594
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 4: and half for the Texans, it's gotten to three and

595
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 4: a half. They've come back a little bit on the Broncos.

596
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 4: I think they are just playing the number. If it's

597
00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 4: below three, they're playing the Texans. If it's above three,

598
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 4: they're playing the Broncos.

599
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:14,280
Speaker 1: Okay, the Packers or the side I would imagine at

600
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:17,240
Speaker 1: plus five and a half and Mahomes is a bad

601
00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 1: cover if it's over like four or five. I do

602
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:22,760
Speaker 1: think Kansas City found a little bit of their way

603
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 1: in the second half. I think Hrashi Rice is starting

604
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 1: to look like a one. Jordan Love is overvalued. The

605
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 1: Chargers and the Lions secondaries are really really bad, and

606
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 1: Kansas City's isn't. I'm going to bet the Chiefs. I

607
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 1: know it's square.

608
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 4: Comment on it, Well, it's square just as but it's interesting.

609
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 4: It's interesting because this is a game the Wise guys

610
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:50,360
Speaker 4: have sort of planted a flag in the sand on

611
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 4: and they've decided that Jordan Love since week nine is

612
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 4: a top five quarterback. And there are a lot of stats,

613
00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:58,720
Speaker 4: a lot of the advanced metrics. You can look at

614
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:02,120
Speaker 4: EPA things like that, they will tell you that Jordan

615
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:05,120
Speaker 4: Love has been incredibly good the past five weeks. And

616
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 4: you can also look at what the Chiefs have done

617
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:09,799
Speaker 4: and take last week against the Raiders with a grain

618
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,800
Speaker 4: of salt. They have been terrible in the second half.

619
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:17,359
Speaker 4: Second half unders with the Chiefs this year eleven and zero.

620
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 4: They are not a team scoring in the second half.

621
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:22,759
Speaker 4: So what the Wise guys are banking on is an

622
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 4: improving quarterback against a team that has not been scoring

623
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:29,840
Speaker 4: in the second half, and the opportunity to keep the

624
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:33,640
Speaker 4: game close when they are at home as a big underdog,

625
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:38,920
Speaker 4: and especially these primetime games, they have been trending towards

626
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 4: the under and so when you have a game that

627
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:45,720
Speaker 4: is going to be low scoring, the bigger underdog tends

628
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:46,160
Speaker 4: to cover.

629
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:50,560
Speaker 1: Chad Milman CCO Action Network. All is provided by DraftKings.

630
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 1: Good to see anybody, Good to see you too. Man.

631
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:56,719
Speaker 3: The volume,