WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Frances Donald & Richard Clarida

0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:11.600
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

0:00:15.160 --> 0:00:18.640
<v Speaker 2>Single best idea and our single best idea is when

0:00:18.680 --> 0:00:22.160
<v Speaker 2>there is tragedy, we go to the science of aviation

0:00:22.320 --> 0:00:26.000
<v Speaker 2>with Bloomberg Intelligence. This has obviously been a commitment by

0:00:26.040 --> 0:00:30.440
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg for well over thirty years. It was definitive in

0:00:30.520 --> 0:00:34.640
<v Speaker 2>Dallas with George Ferguson and Mary Schlangenstein, and we just

0:00:34.680 --> 0:00:37.879
<v Speaker 2>build out an ability to look at Boeing and then

0:00:37.920 --> 0:00:40.879
<v Speaker 2>out of London and down to Paris to look at

0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:45.040
<v Speaker 2>Toulouse and Airbus. We're committed to the coverage of aviation

0:00:45.200 --> 0:00:48.400
<v Speaker 2>and today was a very difficult day. We thank Danny

0:00:48.479 --> 0:00:53.840
<v Speaker 2>Lee and Bangkok who was absolutely spectacular on Asia in

0:00:53.880 --> 0:00:57.600
<v Speaker 2>the reach from the Pacific rim over to Mumbai and

0:00:57.640 --> 0:01:03.000
<v Speaker 2>Amenabad to speak after this terrible plane crash. In particular

0:01:03.200 --> 0:01:07.640
<v Speaker 2>George Ferguson yeoman's duty, not in Dallas, George Ferguson definitive

0:01:07.640 --> 0:01:10.840
<v Speaker 2>in the industry and Oslo at a conference. We thank

0:01:10.920 --> 0:01:14.360
<v Speaker 2>him for giving us some real wisdom on the seven

0:01:14.440 --> 0:01:18.960
<v Speaker 2>eighty seven, the seven seventy seven and our safety to fly.

0:01:19.280 --> 0:01:24.120
<v Speaker 2>Francis Donald stopped by with RBC Capital Markets wonderful to

0:01:24.200 --> 0:01:29.200
<v Speaker 2>calculation of GDP Francis Donald on these uncertain.

0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:31.360
<v Speaker 1>Times, Well, there's all sorts of measures of uncertainty, and

0:01:31.440 --> 0:01:34.600
<v Speaker 1>no surprising, whatever measure you're using is at an all

0:01:34.640 --> 0:01:37.560
<v Speaker 1>time high. And what that means for forecasters but also

0:01:37.720 --> 0:01:40.760
<v Speaker 1>for businesses. My clients, the CEOs that I talk do

0:01:40.800 --> 0:01:43.039
<v Speaker 1>you hear from them? What I hear is we have

0:01:43.120 --> 0:01:46.960
<v Speaker 1>to risk manage around downside and upside. We can't have

0:01:47.080 --> 0:01:49.800
<v Speaker 1>one scenario that we base our business operations on. We

0:01:49.880 --> 0:01:52.480
<v Speaker 1>have to plan and prepare for a wide range. But

0:01:52.560 --> 0:01:56.520
<v Speaker 1>this uncertainty, it is not actual policy that is problematic here,

0:01:56.640 --> 0:01:59.160
<v Speaker 1>although yes, there are some elements of it that are problematic.

0:01:59.360 --> 0:02:02.040
<v Speaker 1>It's what is the game that we're playing. We cannot

0:02:02.080 --> 0:02:05.040
<v Speaker 1>write the playbook until we know what the game is itself,

0:02:05.280 --> 0:02:08.640
<v Speaker 1>And so forecasters and businesses are actually operating with much

0:02:08.840 --> 0:02:11.120
<v Speaker 1>ward wider set of scenarios available.

0:02:11.600 --> 0:02:15.880
<v Speaker 2>Francis Donald of RBC Capital Markets, the vice chairman and

0:02:15.960 --> 0:02:19.480
<v Speaker 2>the former vice chairman, Richard Clarita of Columbia University, and

0:02:19.520 --> 0:02:22.400
<v Speaker 2>of course all of his work at PIMCO was with

0:02:22.480 --> 0:02:25.320
<v Speaker 2>us today. This before the June eighteenth FED meeting. I

0:02:25.400 --> 0:02:27.840
<v Speaker 2>asked him a question I'm certain I've never asked him

0:02:27.880 --> 0:02:31.240
<v Speaker 2>before Richard Clarina on gold.

0:02:31.520 --> 0:02:36.320
<v Speaker 3>I'm following this pretty closely because the purchases in the

0:02:36.320 --> 0:02:40.480
<v Speaker 3>official data, the purchases of gold are large, and they've

0:02:40.520 --> 0:02:42.560
<v Speaker 3>been picking up. I'll share an anecdote with you. I

0:02:42.600 --> 0:02:46.160
<v Speaker 3>was in Asia ten years ago seeing a very sophisticated

0:02:46.280 --> 0:02:51.160
<v Speaker 3>official investor, official institution investor, and we were talking about

0:02:51.160 --> 0:02:53.880
<v Speaker 3>gold even then. This is like twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen,

0:02:53.919 --> 0:02:57.880
<v Speaker 3>and that was in the context of Kiwi Infinity, and

0:02:57.919 --> 0:02:59.639
<v Speaker 3>I said to him, well, why invest in gold. You

0:02:59.680 --> 0:03:02.799
<v Speaker 3>can buy inflation index security. It gives you a hash

0:03:02.880 --> 0:03:05.520
<v Speaker 3>against inflation. And he looked at me and he said,

0:03:05.560 --> 0:03:10.799
<v Speaker 3>gold doesn't default. And so I don't think the US

0:03:10.880 --> 0:03:14.720
<v Speaker 3>is going to default either, but certainly we have seen

0:03:14.720 --> 0:03:17.280
<v Speaker 3>that allocation. And again talk about back to the future.

0:03:17.320 --> 0:03:19.480
<v Speaker 3>I mean central backs have been holding gold as a

0:03:19.520 --> 0:03:23.600
<v Speaker 3>reserve for hundreds of years, and so we're sort of

0:03:23.639 --> 0:03:25.240
<v Speaker 3>getting back into that mindset.

0:03:25.760 --> 0:03:28.680
<v Speaker 2>Richard Claire to there on gold. I really never thought

0:03:28.680 --> 0:03:31.600
<v Speaker 2>I would speak with one of our great academics on

0:03:31.680 --> 0:03:35.480
<v Speaker 2>monetary theory about gold. But there is the surprises of

0:03:35.600 --> 0:03:40.000
<v Speaker 2>surveillance and your commute across the nation, across Canada, serious

0:03:40.040 --> 0:03:44.040
<v Speaker 2>exem channel one, twenty one, Humbled by that old technology boy.

0:03:44.080 --> 0:03:47.080
<v Speaker 2>It delivers each and every day Good Morning ninety nine

0:03:47.120 --> 0:03:50.600
<v Speaker 2>one FM in Washington, ninety two nine in Boston, and

0:03:50.600 --> 0:03:55.040
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg eleven three to zero in New York. YouTube. Subscribe

0:03:55.080 --> 0:03:59.880
<v Speaker 2>to Bloomberg podcasts and on YouTube podcasts. It's single best

0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:01.960
<v Speaker 2>idea