1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:04,160 Speaker 1: Who you put your trust in matters. Investors have put 2 00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 1: their trust in independent registered investment advisors to the tune 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:12,240 Speaker 1: of four trillion dollars. Why learn more and find your 4 00:00:12,240 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 1: independent advisor dot com. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 5 00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you 6 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:38,200 Speaker 1: insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 7 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:43,239 Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on iTunes, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and 8 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 1: of course, on the Bloomberg Princie The Quad in London. 9 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:52,879 Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keene in New York and listening now. We 10 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 1: know are so much of Asia, and particularly the people 11 00:00:56,120 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 1: of India. Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University wrote A Little 12 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:04,440 Speaker 1: Look a year or so ago about cash, about corruption, 13 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:09,000 Speaker 1: about the underworld, about suitcases of cash going to no good. 14 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:11,399 Speaker 1: It is my book of the year. It is without question, 15 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:15,800 Speaker 1: the most controversial book of economics in decades. Professor Rogoff 16 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:18,840 Speaker 1: joins us now on India. Let's first start with what 17 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 1: Mr Modi is trying to do. What was his change 18 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:25,960 Speaker 1: in policy for India. Well, on the same day that 19 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 1: we were electing President Trump, the Prime Minister went on 20 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:31,639 Speaker 1: the air and said the two largest notes in India, 21 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 1: the five thousand rupea note four hours from now will 22 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:39,399 Speaker 1: be no longer youthful boom and you have fifty days 23 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 1: to turn it in for other cash. That is radically 24 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:45,640 Speaker 1: different than the policy I propose, which is doing it 25 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 1: over say five to seven years, trying to avoid collateral damage. 26 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: Within the collateral damage. What would be your advice to 27 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 1: the Prime Minister now to move forward after this announcement, 28 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:00,560 Speaker 1: I mean away from the debate about cash. What's ken 29 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 1: rogos to do list for India this morning? Well, that's 30 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:07,600 Speaker 1: a tough question. I mean, the Prime Minister cites a 31 00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 1: lot of the reasons, all the reasons that I've given 32 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:14,800 Speaker 1: the book of why cash is pernicious, uh, you know, corruption, crime, 33 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:18,560 Speaker 1: tax of Asian terrorism. But on the other hand, I 34 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:20,919 Speaker 1: mentioned as tactics are very different. And by the way, 35 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:24,360 Speaker 1: my book states again and again very carefully, if you're 36 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 1: a developing economy, don't try this at home. You need 37 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 1: financial inclusion. He's done a lot of things. I think 38 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 1: India's reached a point where implementation is very important. There 39 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:38,239 Speaker 1: could be long run beneficial effects, but it really involves, 40 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 1: you know, doing things to assure people that in the 41 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 1: long run, we're fighting crime, we're fighting corruption, which is 42 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:47,320 Speaker 1: a huge problem in India. In many ways I have learned, 43 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 1: and this goes back to one of your great mentors, Jagnaguadi, 44 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 1: that India is, in each and every case, always about 45 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 1: domestic politics. What would the RBI, their central bank do, 46 00:02:57,360 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 1: and could rob and rog and their former leader at 47 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 1: the Bank of the Boot School Chicago, could ragu have 48 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:08,519 Speaker 1: stopped this tough po is bad pos well. I suspect 49 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:11,639 Speaker 1: they were overridden. Initially, when I heard about this, it 50 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 1: seemed that the rb I was behind it, a joint 51 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:17,240 Speaker 1: you know push. But I think as time went on, 52 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 1: we didn't see Governor Patel. The governor replaced where John 53 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:23,399 Speaker 1: speak for a couple of weeks, which kind of made 54 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 1: it clear that they weren't um It doesn't mean that 55 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 1: they don't agree with the broad idea, but they might 56 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 1: not have agreed with the tactics. They might have wanted 57 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 1: to do it slowly and gradually, as others, say myself 58 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 1: would suggest. And by the way, India doesn't have a 59 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 1: large note. Their largest notes fifteen dollars. To introduced a 60 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 1: bigger one in this to replace the old ones, which 61 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:47,120 Speaker 1: again is a hundred eighty degrees opposite to what I 62 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 1: would advise for advanced economies. If we focus on the 63 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 1: news right that we have had overlast to two weeks, 64 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 1: we had a record load from repee extreme volatility will 65 00:03:57,080 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 1: dis continue well. I think the thinking is eventually they 66 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 1: will come out of this. They hadn't printed enough currency. 67 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 1: We just don't know all the considerations why this was 68 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 1: so sudden. Evidently word leaked that they were going to 69 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 1: do it. I suspect that will all settle down. And 70 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 1: you know, it's surprising how many Indian economists people think 71 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 1: in the long run making this statement against corruption, which 72 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 1: of course as India's number one problem, will have you know, 73 00:04:25,080 --> 00:04:28,360 Speaker 1: good effects, but they have to get there. There have 74 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:32,599 Speaker 1: been really a lot of problems, really poor planning implementation, 75 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 1: uh in the short run. But I think that will 76 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:38,839 Speaker 1: probably sort out. But it isn't done yet. And I 77 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:41,440 Speaker 1: know the RBI, for example, put some limits on withdrawals 78 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:44,479 Speaker 1: from no frill bank accounts. I mean, is it always 79 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:48,040 Speaker 1: a bad idea it can to limit withdrawals. Yeah, I 80 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 1: mean they were very awkward position that they hadn't printed 81 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 1: enough currency. It's actually not that easy to print currency. 82 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:56,400 Speaker 1: It could take a year. I kind of wonder why 83 00:04:56,440 --> 00:04:59,360 Speaker 1: they didn't do maneuver like the Greeks had considered a 84 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:03,360 Speaker 1: stamp the old currency to create the new currency temporarily. 85 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:06,120 Speaker 1: I just don't know what the planning was. They haven't 86 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:09,479 Speaker 1: really described it. It's clear what the goals were, which 87 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:13,760 Speaker 1: I think are laudable, but the implementation and execution, they 88 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 1: haven't really explained why they did it this way. There 89 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:19,720 Speaker 1: are people who recommended sudden currency moves. There was an 90 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:22,839 Speaker 1: economist in the mid seventies, James Henry, who said, let's 91 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 1: do a sneak attack on the criminals and the drug dealers. 92 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 1: I think the collateral damage is just too great. In 93 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 1: the case of the U S, it looks too much 94 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:34,640 Speaker 1: like a default. Again, what is the you know, the 95 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 1: lessons learned. We've seen you know, panics or volatility of 96 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:40,839 Speaker 1: whatever you want to call it in other countries, and 97 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:43,240 Speaker 1: as long as there's one or two lessons that you 98 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:46,359 Speaker 1: don't repeat, then the country will be Okay. What's it 99 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 1: in this case, Well, it's about implementation and planning and 100 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 1: again and developing economies. The issue of financial inclusion is huge. Uh, 101 00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:57,680 Speaker 1: you know in the US, it's very easy to cover that. 102 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 1: My book explains how to do that. And Indie a 103 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:03,279 Speaker 1: Prime Minister Modi has taken a lot of steps. He's 104 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:06,640 Speaker 1: taken biometric data for almost a billion Indians and you 105 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 1: can get a bank account if you have that, but 106 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 1: they're way away from doing that. This was a very 107 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:15,080 Speaker 1: radical step to take. One of the strengths of your book, 108 00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 1: The Curse of Cash is you put out front your 109 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:22,120 Speaker 1: critics amersing on page seven, Lord Summers, you're calling at 110 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 1: Harvard on page one two, the Greatest sing of Germany, 111 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:28,680 Speaker 1: the Great Summers of Cambridge. They pushed back against Ken 112 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 1: Rogoff describe their caution about the curse of cash in 113 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:37,039 Speaker 1: your formula. Well, actually, Larry Summers has come around to 114 00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:39,800 Speaker 1: be a big champion of getting rid of hundred and 115 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:44,320 Speaker 1: fifty dollar bills and that's been fantastic Admares saying, you know, 116 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:48,160 Speaker 1: sites of Dusty Jevsky and says, you know, money is 117 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:51,840 Speaker 1: coined freedom. Uh, but I think there's a big difference 118 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 1: between you know, getting rid of big notes and getting 119 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:57,160 Speaker 1: rid of all cash. I am for less cash, not 120 00:06:57,360 --> 00:07:01,839 Speaker 1: no cash. Is money a repress seditive of freedom. In Mr. 121 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:06,599 Speaker 1: Modi's India. Well, it's how a lot of the economy functions. 122 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:10,240 Speaker 1: It's transactions I think he would like, and many steps 123 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:13,320 Speaker 1: that officials are so corrupt. I had a colleague who 124 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 1: told me about her father sold an apartment just recently 125 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 1: in a rural India. He gets back the deed that 126 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:22,960 Speaker 1: list half the price that he paid because the official 127 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 1: was paid off. This is routine business India. Modi wants 128 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:29,920 Speaker 1: to stamp it out. Francine, the Curse of cash and India. 129 00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:32,120 Speaker 1: Of course, I'll put this out on social again today. 130 00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:35,320 Speaker 1: Ken Rogoff joins US now cabinet Professor of Public Policy, 131 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 1: professor of economics at Harvard, the author of Tom's Book 132 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 1: of the Year, much Ballyhood book of the Year by Time, 133 00:07:40,520 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 1: the Cursive Cash. We will talk about that in a 134 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:44,800 Speaker 1: little bit, but some news at first, Ken Rogoff, good 135 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:46,040 Speaker 1: to have you with us, Thanks for being thank you 136 00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 1: good to be here. I'm very curious and I've been 137 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 1: asking a lot of people about this, the definition of 138 00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 1: Trump economics, what Trump and omics is, and and here 139 00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:55,480 Speaker 1: a few weeks after the election, are you went it 140 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:58,600 Speaker 1: closer to to coming up with to having a definition 141 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 1: of what it is? No, I'm not. I mean, also, 142 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 1: bear in mind everybody's watching these appointments and saying, who 143 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:08,360 Speaker 1: is he going to point he isn't locked in. This 144 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:11,120 Speaker 1: is a guy who made his living by firing people. 145 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:14,080 Speaker 1: And it wasn't so long ago, back in the Jimmy 146 00:08:14,120 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 1: Carter days, even you know Lynton Johnson, where they routinely 147 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:21,080 Speaker 1: fired people all the time. So what I'm expecting is 148 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 1: not just have a parade of candidates. I'm expecting a 149 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 1: parade of appointees. He'll have a meeting, He'll have the 150 00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:31,960 Speaker 1: three guys you know shamefully lined there. He'll go you're fired, 151 00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:35,199 Speaker 1: you know, or however he says that line. So I 152 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:38,560 Speaker 1: think he will recalibrate if he's not happy how things 153 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:42,680 Speaker 1: are going. I expect just as he recalibrates his comments, 154 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 1: he'll recalibrate as appointees to looking for some some drama 155 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:48,320 Speaker 1: there in the appointments, at least not immediately down the line. 156 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:52,680 Speaker 1: What power does does a president? Does a Treasury secretary, say, 157 00:08:52,679 --> 00:08:54,960 Speaker 1: have to to influence the trajectory of the the U. 158 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:59,360 Speaker 1: S economy right now? The Treasury secretary's power comes a 159 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:02,640 Speaker 1: lot from their ear having the ear of the president, 160 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:05,120 Speaker 1: and to the extent they do. Of course, they have 161 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 1: a lot of influence over legislation, especially with the Republican 162 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:11,320 Speaker 1: controlled Congress. And I've got to say, there's a lot 163 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:14,840 Speaker 1: of talk about, well, Trump wants this, Congress wants this. 164 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:17,760 Speaker 1: He won't get his policies through. Yes, he will when 165 00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:20,600 Speaker 1: he decides what they are. I think in the short 166 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:23,679 Speaker 1: run there will be a honeymoon with the Republican Congress. 167 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:26,439 Speaker 1: A lot of them opposed Trump or didn't support him. 168 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:28,840 Speaker 1: They'll support him here. They'll give him what he wants 169 00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:31,880 Speaker 1: and you know, see how it goes. So I do 170 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:35,640 Speaker 1: think we'll see a pretty dramatic stimulus plan. I don't 171 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:38,160 Speaker 1: know if it'll be completely coherent, but I think we'll 172 00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 1: see something very dramatic. All this stuff about the Republicans 173 00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 1: won't go along with deficits, that's just nonsense. They wouldn't 174 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:48,120 Speaker 1: go along with deficits when they're spending it on what 175 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 1: President Obama wanted. But if you talk, if President Obama 176 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 1: had proposed tax cuts to get deficits, he would have 177 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 1: got it passed in an afternoon. Also, So I'm but 178 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:01,960 Speaker 1: exactly what shaped this will take. I think, you know 179 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:05,720 Speaker 1: is constantly Morphing, There's no doubt about it. We're beginning 180 00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 1: to hear something of a debate here about the timing 181 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:11,240 Speaker 1: of those tax cuts or or an infrastructure spending plan, 182 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:13,839 Speaker 1: whether or not now is the time to do those things. 183 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:16,560 Speaker 1: Do you expect that to be a robust debate in Washington? 184 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:19,960 Speaker 1: You mentioned the support he'll likely have from the Republican Congress. Well, 185 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:22,280 Speaker 1: I think I really think he can do whatever he 186 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:25,079 Speaker 1: wants to do. We really haven't seen someone come in 187 00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:29,319 Speaker 1: with this, you know, kind of support for a long time. 188 00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:31,520 Speaker 1: I'm not you know, in terms of having Congress in 189 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:35,200 Speaker 1: the Senate. Uh, it's been a while, and I suspect 190 00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 1: he'll do what he wants to do. Yes, they'll be debate, 191 00:10:37,040 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 1: they'll be bad articles, they'll be complaints, They'll people say 192 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 1: that I voted for even though he didn't mean too. 193 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:46,320 Speaker 1: I think the infrastructure has bipartisan support. If he can't 194 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 1: get the Republicans to support it, he'll get the Democrats 195 00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 1: to support it. Uh. That's something everyone agrees on. We'll 196 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:54,640 Speaker 1: finally get it done. The tax cuts are a whole 197 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:56,840 Speaker 1: another matter, and I don't even know what they're gonna be. 198 00:10:57,440 --> 00:10:59,920 Speaker 1: I don't think it's the most effective form of stimulus, 199 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:03,320 Speaker 1: but it's been you know, red meat for the Republican Party. 200 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:05,480 Speaker 1: He's going to give it to them, maybe to get 201 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 1: support in other areas. Ken roll Off with us of 202 00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:10,760 Speaker 1: Harvard University will speak of India and the curse of 203 00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:13,840 Speaker 1: cash his book and my book of the year, I 204 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: might point out, we'll do that here in a bit. Ken, 205 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 1: You're in the class, you're you know, manque's got a headache, 206 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 1: you've gotta teach at ten are in the basic undergraduate 207 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 1: class teaching at Harvard, and somebody says to you, Vice 208 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:29,800 Speaker 1: Chairman Fisher, he's of a college down the road. M 209 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:34,000 Speaker 1: I T. Vice Chairman Fisher says, we're almost fully employed. 210 00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:38,640 Speaker 1: Donald Trump got elected because we're not fully employed. Is 211 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 1: it to America's? And do we do our macro economics 212 00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:47,520 Speaker 1: just chair yelling, do our macroeconomics as one America one 213 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:51,560 Speaker 1: mathematical distribution? Or do we need to always consider that 214 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:54,839 Speaker 1: there's two America's in every discussion. Well, first of all, 215 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:57,960 Speaker 1: you're not gonna get me sharply agreeing with Stan Fisher, 216 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:00,080 Speaker 1: who's you know, a great a great man, and I 217 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:03,080 Speaker 1: think you know, really understands the data. But it's sort 218 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 1: of a definition of what it doesn't mean to be employed. 219 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 1: And I think the quality of jobs, the quality of 220 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 1: life for many people hasn't improved at the rate that 221 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:14,080 Speaker 1: they thought, and I think Trump got elected on the 222 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:16,559 Speaker 1: back of that. That's the core of the populism with 223 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 1: the middle class. But the policies to fix that are 224 00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:25,199 Speaker 1: really much more about improving education. They're conceivably infrastructure, things 225 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 1: you can do with the tax system. One area where 226 00:12:28,800 --> 00:12:32,400 Speaker 1: I think maybe there's cause for some optimism is that 227 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:35,960 Speaker 1: business investment has just been awful all across the world. 228 00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:39,720 Speaker 1: And if there is a coherent policy, almost any coherent 229 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 1: policy going forward, I think we could see a big 230 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:45,760 Speaker 1: pick up in business investment. That's the key. If you 231 00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:47,960 Speaker 1: don't see that it's not going to be great for 232 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:52,240 Speaker 1: long from your reading of history. Can we migrate policy 233 00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:56,600 Speaker 1: to create incentives for domestic investment? Can we do tax 234 00:12:56,720 --> 00:13:00,240 Speaker 1: credits to make Jeff Emil invest in David gur Is 235 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:05,560 Speaker 1: Ithaca versus Malaysia. I love Ithaca. I grew up in 236 00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:10,680 Speaker 1: Rochester like you, Tom, but I think they're much more important. 237 00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:13,959 Speaker 1: Much more important in Trump's policies are the how he 238 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:18,560 Speaker 1: handles regulation because there's, you know, a lot of needed regulation, 239 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:20,680 Speaker 1: but at the same time, there there's a lot of 240 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:23,720 Speaker 1: it's hard to interpret. I certainly know some of the 241 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:28,080 Speaker 1: regulation that's come on universities has been dramatic changes, difficult 242 00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:30,800 Speaker 1: to interpret. If it's been in other industries like that, 243 00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:34,320 Speaker 1: it's hard to function and where there's confidence, where there's 244 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 1: optimisms coming from that. More than anything, I get the 245 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:41,319 Speaker 1: sense that, you know, when when Congress takes up a 246 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:42,839 Speaker 1: tax plan, it's a tax plan that's on the shelf. 247 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:45,080 Speaker 1: Republicans have been talking about tax cuts and reforming the 248 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:48,240 Speaker 1: tax code for for a long time. With regulation, I 249 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:50,679 Speaker 1: lived in Washington for a long time. I heard Republicans 250 00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:53,280 Speaker 1: mostly decrying Dodd Frank for years and years and years. 251 00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 1: But it was all about removing that law, not replacing it. 252 00:13:57,280 --> 00:13:59,160 Speaker 1: How nuanced do you think the conversation is going to 253 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:01,599 Speaker 1: be about about what regulation looks like here under the 254 00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:05,560 Speaker 1: new prison We're seeing anything but nuanced conversation and the 255 00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 1: debate in America today. But I mean, Dodd Frank has 256 00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:12,080 Speaker 1: a lot of problems. I think Dodd Frank uh does 257 00:14:12,160 --> 00:14:15,520 Speaker 1: need to be fixed. Uh they've known that. President Obama 258 00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 1: knew that, but they couldn't get anything through Congress. Usually 259 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 1: when you pass a law, there's a whole sequence of 260 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 1: fixes that you do, little technical fixes. They couldn't do 261 00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:26,240 Speaker 1: it because there was so much difficulty. So at a 262 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:29,280 Speaker 1: minimum they're going to do that. I think we need 263 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:32,479 Speaker 1: to make the path for small and medium sized businesses 264 00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:35,920 Speaker 1: to get loans much better than it's been. They are 265 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 1: the core of productivity in this economy. I think the 266 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 1: that's where we've slowed down, particularly the businesses that eventually 267 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 1: get big. Obviously, and you know, improving innovation, improving investment 268 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:52,840 Speaker 1: and Dodd Frank you know, stopped us from having the 269 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:57,320 Speaker 1: financial crisis of two thousand and forty, but didn't necessarily 270 00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:00,800 Speaker 1: generate the recovery we needed just to going overseas here 271 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:02,240 Speaker 1: for a bid. Looking at Europe, we had the President 272 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 1: of the Eurogroup this morning saying that the UK would 273 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:07,160 Speaker 1: likely get access to internal markets in the European univer 274 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:09,640 Speaker 1: We saw sterling strength and on that news, what do 275 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 1: you make of how this has played out, how indeed 276 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:14,560 Speaker 1: this is playing out, this Brexit process, and and what 277 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:17,520 Speaker 1: it what it what it portends here for the UK economy. 278 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:22,120 Speaker 1: I'm very leary about the longer term they want it. 279 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 1: There's no precedent for this of having this tightly net 280 00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:28,480 Speaker 1: trade deal and pulling out short of a war, civil war, 281 00:15:28,560 --> 00:15:31,760 Speaker 1: revolution or something. It's not that easy to do. And 282 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:34,680 Speaker 1: by the way, negotiating the new treaties is not that 283 00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:37,920 Speaker 1: easy to do. Usually a trade agreement takes five years 284 00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:41,600 Speaker 1: to negotiate, five years to implement, and that's fast track. 285 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 1: And here they're trying. They haven't only two years to 286 00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:48,520 Speaker 1: negotiate it, then you know, three years for implementation. There's 287 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 1: going to be a long period of accodus from the 288 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 1: UK economy of people, firms. Uh, they face a very 289 00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:58,920 Speaker 1: difficult road ahead. I think the Braxitters seem to have 290 00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 1: no idea what they're doing. I had been assuming they 291 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:05,280 Speaker 1: would back down. I've been assuming there was going to 292 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:08,680 Speaker 1: be a soft Braxit, but at least term, you know, 293 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:11,560 Speaker 1: won't brook that it could all change. I really would 294 00:16:11,560 --> 00:16:14,440 Speaker 1: hold the possibility that they'll just you know, pull out 295 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 1: at the last minute, though the French chemed to be 296 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:19,960 Speaker 1: pushing them out the door. Ken Rogoff with us because 297 00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 1: we got we could go with the Professor Rogoff here 298 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 1: for five or six hours, maybe get to the Italian 299 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:28,800 Speaker 1: referendum by ten am Wall Street time this morning. We 300 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 1: will not do that. Coming up, what many of you 301 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:34,800 Speaker 1: been waiting for, particularly our listeners in Asia in India. 302 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 1: Ken Rogoff on the history making effort by Mr Mody 303 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:43,000 Speaker 1: to limit cash in Indian society. Coming up, Ken Rogoff 304 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:46,520 Speaker 1: on the curse of cash, the curse of cash. What 305 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:48,840 Speaker 1: did Mr Modi get wrong in India? He tried to 306 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 1: apply Rogolf one oh one, and you made clear you 307 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 1: can't do that in an emerging market. What did he 308 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:57,600 Speaker 1: get wrong? Well, I mean the first thing, I don't 309 00:16:57,600 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 1: know if he got it wrong because I don't know 310 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 1: all that it tail. But I view the right way 311 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:05,600 Speaker 1: to do phasing out large bills is very slowly to 312 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:09,480 Speaker 1: void collateral damage. It's not technically easy to do there. 313 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:11,359 Speaker 1: You know a lot of people that you heard in 314 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:13,920 Speaker 1: addition to the tax of aiders and criminals. He did 315 00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:17,600 Speaker 1: it overnight. Uh. He really wanted to lash out. He's 316 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:21,239 Speaker 1: very angry about corruption. And of course India didn't have 317 00:17:21,280 --> 00:17:24,120 Speaker 1: any big bills. Their biggest bill was about fifteen dollars, 318 00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:27,440 Speaker 1: which is you know, basically where I'm hoping to end 319 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:30,560 Speaker 1: up with countries like the United States, and the euros 320 00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:32,879 Speaker 1: twenty or thirty years and now, by the way, no 321 00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 1: time soon. And he was taking away these bills that 322 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 1: the particularly five rupe notes seven dollars and fifty cents 323 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:44,640 Speaker 1: that ordinary Indians use. One more question is what can 324 00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 1: we learn from Sweden? In your book you drop in 325 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:51,199 Speaker 1: these nations that are affecting your plan. What can the 326 00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:55,160 Speaker 1: United States learn from Sweden? Again, my book is really 327 00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:57,800 Speaker 1: about the issues with cash and what surrounds it. And 328 00:17:57,840 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 1: there's more than one way to skin a cat. I 329 00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:02,560 Speaker 1: try to propose something very simple. Sweden does it on 330 00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 1: many dimensions. You can't easily find an a t M 331 00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:09,119 Speaker 1: machine in Sweden. Their places in all of the Nordic 332 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:11,840 Speaker 1: countries where you might have to go a hundred kilometers 333 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 1: to find ATM machines. Well, they were very worried about crime. 334 00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:17,040 Speaker 1: They stripped cash out of a lot of the banks 335 00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:19,320 Speaker 1: that had a lot of violent crime. There's a lot 336 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:22,600 Speaker 1: of support in society. They also have very very good 337 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:26,960 Speaker 1: mobile person to person apt way more sophisticated than ours. 338 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:29,040 Speaker 1: We need to rip up the script and David Gurry, 339 00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:31,720 Speaker 1: you're going to help her with this. You gave that 340 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:35,320 Speaker 1: you had the ceremonial first move at the Chess Championships, 341 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:38,600 Speaker 1: and then Mr Teal Peter Teal did the same thing. 342 00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:42,440 Speaker 1: I believe yesterday we have a newly minted chess champion veteran. 343 00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:45,960 Speaker 1: Is he as good as you were? Is he different? 344 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:48,679 Speaker 1: Is it like tennis where we don't even know what 345 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:52,720 Speaker 1: the game was? First of all, Carlson is was the 346 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:56,320 Speaker 1: champion and defended it. He's just turned twenty six years old. 347 00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:58,639 Speaker 1: As good as I was, he's so much better than 348 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:00,880 Speaker 1: I was. I mean, I couldn't like a handle to him. 349 00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:04,960 Speaker 1: He's an incredible player. His Russian opponent put up a 350 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:08,600 Speaker 1: big fight. Putin followed very closely. They weren't couldn't do 351 00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:11,280 Speaker 1: the Olympics, of course, so they were very excited about 352 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 1: the chess match. This opponent played great. But I have 353 00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 1: to say when I made the first move, uh, you know, 354 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:19,800 Speaker 1: I shook both their hands. Carlson was smiling and relaxed. 355 00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:22,159 Speaker 1: Karyakin looked like he was about to be fed to 356 00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:26,480 Speaker 1: the wolves. Here Professor of Public Policy, Economic international grandmaster 357 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:30,040 Speaker 1: as well. David ger and I played chess. Was embarrassing. 358 00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:33,199 Speaker 1: He beat me in seven moves, David. When you watch it, 359 00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 1: when you watch matches likely when somebody who is skilled 360 00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:37,359 Speaker 1: at chess, who's played chess for a long time watches, 361 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:40,159 Speaker 1: is it for pure enjoyment or is is he or 362 00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:43,479 Speaker 1: she learning new new opens, learning new moves? How does 363 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:46,840 Speaker 1: one watch a match like this? I mean watching Carlson 364 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:52,000 Speaker 1: is just such a pleasure. Um. He manages to press 365 00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:56,440 Speaker 1: in these creative ways. He wins positions where Bobby Fisher, 366 00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:58,880 Speaker 1: who arguably might have been the greatest player of all 367 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:02,159 Speaker 1: time until be cast prov in Carlson. I mean, Bobby 368 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:04,959 Speaker 1: Fisher would have given me a draw. Where's Carlson's just 369 00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:08,440 Speaker 1: starting to go to work? Uh? And it's just beautiful. 370 00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 1: And his opponent, by the way, was incredibly creative. He 371 00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:15,719 Speaker 1: defended positions where he looked like he was dead, and 372 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:17,880 Speaker 1: he did these risky, creative things. It was a really 373 00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 1: fantastic match. What's your sense of the health of the 374 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:23,399 Speaker 1: game these days? Down at the Full Market building in 375 00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:25,280 Speaker 1: Lower Manhattan they had a V I P lounge. This 376 00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:28,959 Speaker 1: was streamed worldwide. How do you gage the interest in chess? Right? 377 00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:31,160 Speaker 1: I mean, the interest in this match was just phenomenal. 378 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:34,280 Speaker 1: You have to remember chess as an online game even 379 00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:37,000 Speaker 1: more than say football, as a TV sports so they 380 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:40,639 Speaker 1: had you know, certainly millions of people just watching every 381 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:44,639 Speaker 1: move online paid subscribers, and then it was shown live 382 00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 1: on television in many countries of particularly Russia. You read 383 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:50,719 Speaker 1: square was just filled with people like it was New 384 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:53,960 Speaker 1: Year's Eve watching the games. It's still very very popular. 385 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:59,680 Speaker 1: It's interesting despite computers coming in, chess as as popular 386 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 1: as ever and just very quickly. This lasted many weeks. 387 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:06,120 Speaker 1: How do these how are these matches structured? Well, I mean, 388 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:10,119 Speaker 1: I just say the physical components very very important. Carlson 389 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:13,080 Speaker 1: always has trained physically, and this was really the first 390 00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,320 Speaker 1: time he came up against opponent who was in the 391 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:18,639 Speaker 1: kind of shape he was think of taking. If a 392 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:22,639 Speaker 1: six hour exam every day for several weeks in a row, 393 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:25,280 Speaker 1: it's gonna grind anybody down. Plus you gotta study for 394 00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:28,840 Speaker 1: the exam, let's not forget. So there's a huge physical component. 395 00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:31,760 Speaker 1: Carlson tip typically tears people up in the fifth and 396 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:34,760 Speaker 1: sixth hour, and this guy, karayak In was just right 397 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 1: with him. We're going to leave it there. Thank you. 398 00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:42,399 Speaker 1: The book my book of the year. Read it. It 399 00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:48,200 Speaker 1: is controversial. The Curse of Cash Daniel Jurgen next. This 400 00:21:48,280 --> 00:22:03,320 Speaker 1: is Bloomer. This is Bloomberg Surveillance on Bloomberg Radio. David 401 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,119 Speaker 1: Gurreau with Tom Keane. The news broke yesterday while we 402 00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:08,200 Speaker 1: were on air. OPEC members had come to a deal 403 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 1: at their meeting in Vienna, a production target of thirty 404 00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:14,440 Speaker 1: two points seven million barrels a day, by all accounts, 405 00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:17,159 Speaker 1: a pretty broad deal. I want to bring in perhaps 406 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:20,520 Speaker 1: the pre eminent expert on OPEC on the global energy market. 407 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:22,679 Speaker 1: That's Dan Jurgen, vice chairman of i h S, Founder 408 00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,720 Speaker 1: of i h S Cambridge Energy Research Associates, author of 409 00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:28,160 Speaker 1: course of the quest and the prize. Dan, You're gonna 410 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:29,600 Speaker 1: great to have you with us this morning. Thank you, 411 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:33,160 Speaker 1: Good morning. I mentioned that the relative broadness of that deal. 412 00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:35,200 Speaker 1: Did it surprise you A that we got a deal? 413 00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:37,440 Speaker 1: And be that it seems so broad? Well, going into 414 00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:40,439 Speaker 1: the deal, I had about a seventy probability that they 415 00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:43,000 Speaker 1: would do a deal. It was certainly as though a 416 00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:46,159 Speaker 1: cliffhanger at the end, and where you had basically on 417 00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:49,439 Speaker 1: the one hand, the specter of the onslaught of UH 418 00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:54,760 Speaker 1: new waves of Saudi oil versus h Iranian UH negotiating talents. 419 00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:58,720 Speaker 1: But at the end I think self interest prevailed among 420 00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:01,280 Speaker 1: all these countries and there were enough wiggle room in 421 00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:03,879 Speaker 1: the deal that everybody could claim a victory. We were 422 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 1: talking about OPEC, of course, we were also talking about Russia, 423 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:10,280 Speaker 1: not a member of the cartel. Explain why Russia was 424 00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:13,240 Speaker 1: playing such an outsized role here in these deliberations. Since 425 00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:18,000 Speaker 1: the late nineties nineties, OPEC has tried to win it 426 00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:21,679 Speaker 1: back then, to to bring Russia into a sort of 427 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:24,440 Speaker 1: solving the market problem at that point when there was 428 00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:26,800 Speaker 1: a collapse in oil prices and Russia said they'd go along, 429 00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:30,280 Speaker 1: but they didn't. But this time Russia was much more 430 00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:35,080 Speaker 1: actively involved. UH. The Energy Minister Alexander Novak has been 431 00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:37,840 Speaker 1: out front on this really since early in UH in 432 00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:41,720 Speaker 1: twenty six and even President Putin at one point gathered 433 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,639 Speaker 1: all of the CEOs of the Russian oil industry in 434 00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:46,359 Speaker 1: a room and said, this is earlier in the year, 435 00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:48,879 Speaker 1: I'm in favor of a freeze. Are you all in 436 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,800 Speaker 1: favor of a freeze? And remarkably everybody was in favor 437 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 1: of a freeze. So I think that the Russians, looking 438 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:57,520 Speaker 1: if you look at their budget, you look at their 439 00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,239 Speaker 1: sovereign wealth funds, and where they were there, We're going 440 00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:03,160 Speaker 1: to move into a situation of a lot more financial pressure. 441 00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:05,400 Speaker 1: So I think they were eager to get a deal. 442 00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:07,480 Speaker 1: The big thing was to get them to agree to 443 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,480 Speaker 1: a cut and not just a freeze. Daniel, you're gonna 444 00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:14,680 Speaker 1: improving the prize. And you go back to in the 445 00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:18,800 Speaker 1: sobering moment for the cartel. Are they at that point now? 446 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:23,240 Speaker 1: Is there a a psychological mindset of the cartel in 447 00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:27,920 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia that is equivalent or similar to the agony 448 00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:30,840 Speaker 1: of well, I think that's you know, that's probably the 449 00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:35,280 Speaker 1: best analogy to uh where the market has been for 450 00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,480 Speaker 1: the last two years. And I think then too, there 451 00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,680 Speaker 1: was a resistance to do anything, and finally, when everybody 452 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:44,800 Speaker 1: was looking at how far down prices would stay or 453 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:48,600 Speaker 1: might go, they finally were able to come together. And 454 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:51,320 Speaker 1: I think that was the same situation here because remember 455 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:55,520 Speaker 1: uh Tom two years ago, uh Opek resigned at quit 456 00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:57,600 Speaker 1: it said we're out of the business of market management, 457 00:24:57,920 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 1: and now they're back. And I think it's that they 458 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,320 Speaker 1: looked over the side of the abyss and so that's 459 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,200 Speaker 1: pretty down deep there, and if we get down there, 460 00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:07,040 Speaker 1: we don't quite know how we get out of it. 461 00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:10,280 Speaker 1: All of this is at the margin. What is the 462 00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:14,159 Speaker 1: marginal dynamic you and uh your shop will look for 463 00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:18,359 Speaker 1: in the coming weeks and months from the supposed cartel. Well, 464 00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,720 Speaker 1: I think it will be, of course, a degree of compliance. 465 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:27,160 Speaker 1: And uh the so called secondary sources that monitor uh output, 466 00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:30,160 Speaker 1: and I think we're one of them. Uh, everybody will 467 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,359 Speaker 1: look at those numbers. Uh, the countries will look at 468 00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:36,720 Speaker 1: the numbers, and the other communities. That's really important. The 469 00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:40,160 Speaker 1: traders will look at it, and also the hedge funds 470 00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:42,720 Speaker 1: will look at it and and vote in effect in 471 00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:44,720 Speaker 1: the market whether they think the deal will be there. 472 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,440 Speaker 1: Often when these things start off, they're shaky. There's a 473 00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:50,240 Speaker 1: lot of skepticism. It's only a six month deal. What 474 00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,760 Speaker 1: they're really trying to do is by time, get through 475 00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:56,000 Speaker 1: the winter when inventories would normally build, try and prevent 476 00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:58,680 Speaker 1: that from happening, and get to a more balanced market 477 00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:01,040 Speaker 1: in the spring. That's with this. This is more like 478 00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:04,720 Speaker 1: a sprint than a marathon. How is a producer in 479 00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:08,000 Speaker 1: saying Oklahoma watching the goings on in Vienna? What's his 480 00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:11,400 Speaker 1: sense of his sense? Or two things? One is a 481 00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:14,720 Speaker 1: giant sigh of relief and the other is a rush 482 00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,680 Speaker 1: of adrenaline. And I think we saw that the same 483 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:21,640 Speaker 1: thing in the in the stock markets yesterday. Uh. One 484 00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:24,000 Speaker 1: guy actually said to me said, you know, we're holding 485 00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:28,360 Speaker 1: our breath until until November, and they had to hold 486 00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:31,280 Speaker 1: it for several days there until they got to an agreement. 487 00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:34,680 Speaker 1: But I think this says that people will feel more 488 00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:37,920 Speaker 1: confident they'll be investing. We'll see rick counts go up, 489 00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:41,240 Speaker 1: and we think, you know, if the agreement roughly holds, 490 00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:42,960 Speaker 1: and it's only going to roughly hold, it's not going 491 00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 1: to be a perfect agreement. Uh, then we'll see US 492 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:50,920 Speaker 1: production turning around and uh in increased by the by 493 00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,159 Speaker 1: this time next year. We would be rude if we 494 00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:56,439 Speaker 1: did not speak about the history making new administration we have. 495 00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,240 Speaker 1: First of all, have you been called by the transition team? 496 00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:02,480 Speaker 1: Would professor you're dr you're gon be part of a 497 00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:05,639 Speaker 1: Trump administration? I don't think so. Uh. I mean, I 498 00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:08,680 Speaker 1: think they're still organizing themselves in terms of what they 499 00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:11,200 Speaker 1: want to do. Do we do we have a national 500 00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:14,399 Speaker 1: energy policy? Then? Well, I think, um, I think we 501 00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:17,880 Speaker 1: kind of summarize it at S market is uh more 502 00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:21,920 Speaker 1: rigs less rags is what we're going to see I mean, 503 00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:24,760 Speaker 1: you know, there'll be more activity. I think, you know, 504 00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:26,679 Speaker 1: I think in the first instance, people think there will 505 00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:29,360 Speaker 1: be this vast rolling back of regulations. I don't think 506 00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:31,639 Speaker 1: that's the case, first of all, and a lot of 507 00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:34,760 Speaker 1: much of oil production is governed by state regulations, not 508 00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:37,480 Speaker 1: federal regulations. But I think what it does mean is 509 00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:41,880 Speaker 1: that we're not going to see another wave of additional regulations. 510 00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:44,520 Speaker 1: I think that's the kind of the the starting, the 511 00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:47,520 Speaker 1: going in point. Let's leave it there, Daniel, You're gonna 512 00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:50,240 Speaker 1: thank you so much. A short visit here. Really after 513 00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:55,439 Speaker 1: history in uh Vienna, the Quest is his latest effort, 514 00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:59,040 Speaker 1: and it's really remarkably good. I was surprised, David. I 515 00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:01,760 Speaker 1: did not expect the drama out of the end. No, 516 00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,239 Speaker 1: and I was taken by the drama leading up to 517 00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:06,760 Speaker 1: it as well, and how quickly the meeting itself seemed 518 00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:08,720 Speaker 1: seemed to go. But you know, we've been through this, 519 00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:10,640 Speaker 1: as we mentioned time and time again over these last 520 00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:12,400 Speaker 1: few meetings, there is talk of a deal and then 521 00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:14,960 Speaker 1: no deal. So I think it will be waiting to 522 00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:18,040 Speaker 1: see here how cohesive OPI looks going forward, how disciplined 523 00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:19,760 Speaker 1: the Bartel is going to be going forward is a 524 00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:24,919 Speaker 1: tries to win force this deal. Who you put your 525 00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:29,280 Speaker 1: trust in matters. Investors have put their trust in independent 526 00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:32,960 Speaker 1: registered investment advisors to the tune of four trillion dollars. 527 00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:37,480 Speaker 1: Why they see their role is to serve, not sell. 528 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:40,680 Speaker 1: That's why Charles Schwab is committed to the success of 529 00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:45,920 Speaker 1: over seven thousand independent financial advisors who passionately dedicate themselves 530 00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:50,080 Speaker 1: to helping people achieve their financial goals. Learn more and 531 00:28:50,280 --> 00:29:00,520 Speaker 1: find your independent advisor dot com. David, and to bringing 532 00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:02,840 Speaker 1: our next guest. We've had Kenneth rog up to and 533 00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:05,200 Speaker 1: and you're going to know another wonderful guest. But we 534 00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:07,719 Speaker 1: need to frame this, David. We need to do this right. 535 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 1: A little bit of foggy bottom game show. When only 536 00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:15,000 Speaker 1: three or four candidates depending on the season, are left, 537 00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:19,120 Speaker 1: they are interviewed. Rather than being assigned to task. Executives 538 00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:23,400 Speaker 1: from various companies interview the finalists and report their assessments 539 00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:26,880 Speaker 1: to the host. Based on the interviews, a boardroom meeting 540 00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:31,360 Speaker 1: and firing takes place, leaving two candidates. I don't know 541 00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:35,040 Speaker 1: if that's the apprentice has described in Wikipedia, or if 542 00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:38,080 Speaker 1: that's our selection of the next Secretary State and many 543 00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:41,040 Speaker 1: of us saw CNN correspondent Jim Acossa's photograph from John 544 00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:43,840 Speaker 1: George the other night of Donald Trump sitting with one 545 00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:47,600 Speaker 1: Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts, former presidential candidate, as 546 00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:49,720 Speaker 1: well Nicholas Burns here, a professor of the practice of 547 00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:52,360 Speaker 1: diplomacy the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University joined 548 00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:55,560 Speaker 1: us here in New York. Is Mitt Romney the forerunner here? 549 00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:57,400 Speaker 1: Who else is in the running here? Who else are 550 00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:00,160 Speaker 1: the finalist? Well, he's certainly. Mit Romney's certainly one of 551 00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,560 Speaker 1: the finalists. Um, You've also have David Portray as very 552 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:07,000 Speaker 1: very smart, experience general, and you have Senator Bob Corker, 553 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:09,600 Speaker 1: the chairman of the Form Relations Committee. All these three 554 00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:13,720 Speaker 1: people have in depth international experience, especially General Portrays. All 555 00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:17,200 Speaker 1: of them are mature people of even temperament. All of 556 00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:21,720 Speaker 1: them have credibility both here and also overseas. And so 557 00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:25,280 Speaker 1: I think that, Um, it's okay, that's that's the ambassador. 558 00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:31,360 Speaker 1: We only let ambassadors have their phone on. That's exactly 559 00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:33,680 Speaker 1: what it is. But if you think about it, Donald 560 00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:35,480 Speaker 1: Trump is going to be the very first president in 561 00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:39,200 Speaker 1: the history of the United States are with no prior 562 00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:43,040 Speaker 1: public experience, political experience, military experience. He's gonna need a 563 00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:45,240 Speaker 1: lot of help. He's a smart guy. He's obviously succeeded 564 00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:48,080 Speaker 1: in New York and real estate, but international politics is 565 00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:50,840 Speaker 1: a very different game. And so I think any one 566 00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:54,400 Speaker 1: of these three would center him, give him the credibility 567 00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:56,760 Speaker 1: he needs, and I think make up for some of 568 00:30:56,800 --> 00:31:00,360 Speaker 1: the one dimensional nature of the current national security of Romans. 569 00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:02,959 Speaker 1: General Flynn's a very smart cons a military officer who 570 00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:05,880 Speaker 1: has been a counter terrorist person. You need someone who 571 00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,600 Speaker 1: can thank broadly and act broadly globally. Is that message 572 00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:11,400 Speaker 1: getting telegraphed to him? We saw his pick forree Treasury secretary, 573 00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:15,320 Speaker 1: uh Steve semnuchen A, a loyalist, somebody who ran his 574 00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:18,720 Speaker 1: campaign finance operation. Are you worried here that that message 575 00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:20,000 Speaker 1: that he needs to pick somebody with a lot of 576 00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,400 Speaker 1: experience in statecraft is not going to get the job. 577 00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:24,520 Speaker 1: I'm not sure any of us know, because all that 578 00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:26,640 Speaker 1: matters is what's in the kind of Donald Trump. But 579 00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:29,520 Speaker 1: this this team of rivals thing, it wasn't just Barack 580 00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:32,160 Speaker 1: Obama and Hillary Clinton. It was Lincoln of course. With 581 00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:35,560 Speaker 1: the appointing Seward as Secretary of State. I think it 582 00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,360 Speaker 1: makes sense for this government. I come from a world 583 00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:42,440 Speaker 1: international politics and diplomacy were experience actually counts for a lot. 584 00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:44,280 Speaker 1: You know, Trump's going to have to go up against 585 00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:48,880 Speaker 1: Demir Putin j and ping. These are consequential, very tough piece. 586 00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:52,160 Speaker 1: I want to tie two strands together here, Ambassador. The 587 00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:54,719 Speaker 1: first one is Joseph Nye, who was just with us, 588 00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:57,440 Speaker 1: the giant of international relations. Yes, my good friend of 589 00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:03,320 Speaker 1: college an adamant Adam about a strong America, America exceptionalism, 590 00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:07,240 Speaker 1: the negativity of America is unfounded. And then I want 591 00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:10,600 Speaker 1: to tie you in the massive miscalculation of all to 592 00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:15,040 Speaker 1: how weak Russia was when it collapsed. Our intelligence there 593 00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:19,000 Speaker 1: really wasn't I believe that good. Is Mr Trump and 594 00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:25,240 Speaker 1: his supporters misjudging the state of America within the international community. 595 00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:28,120 Speaker 1: I think so. And what bothered me during the campaign 596 00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:31,760 Speaker 1: was Donald Trump talking down American power, but also Bernie 597 00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:34,760 Speaker 1: Sanders on the left talking down American power. I see 598 00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,760 Speaker 1: a country, the United States. We are the strongest economy 599 00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:40,400 Speaker 1: in the world. We're growing, maybe not a China's six 600 00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:43,560 Speaker 1: or seven present, but we're growing. We have the knowledge economy, 601 00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 1: skill set, and I think dynamics to do well in 602 00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:49,480 Speaker 1: the century. Strongest military, politically, the most influential Joe and 603 00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:52,720 Speaker 1: I will tell you culturally, the greatest soft power, the 604 00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:56,320 Speaker 1: greatest cultural attraction. We're at the top of our game. 605 00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,680 Speaker 1: We're not weak, we're not failing, but we do need leadership. 606 00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:03,080 Speaker 1: Is there an historical precedent for us being quote unquote 607 00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:06,280 Speaker 1: at the top of our game? And what we observed 608 00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:09,240 Speaker 1: in this election, which is not so much the walls, 609 00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:11,920 Speaker 1: but boy, those oceans are comfortable to keep us away. 610 00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:14,080 Speaker 1: I think the Internet. I think there is, and you 611 00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:16,800 Speaker 1: and I are thinking alike. It's Woodrow Wilson. It's the 612 00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:20,000 Speaker 1: our victory in the First World War, our buoyant economy 613 00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:23,560 Speaker 1: in nineteen and twenty, and then we tossed it all 614 00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:27,800 Speaker 1: away by going towards protectionism eventually and also thinking that 615 00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:29,400 Speaker 1: we could withdraw from the rest of the world. We 616 00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:33,400 Speaker 1: can't in a globalized Is there a mirrored hall where 617 00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:36,000 Speaker 1: everyone can get together? Are we so away from the 618 00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:39,360 Speaker 1: Westphalian system of the of the Palace of Versailles that 619 00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:42,040 Speaker 1: Mr Trump is not going to have that tool? You know? 620 00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:44,760 Speaker 1: I think hopefully he gets a team around him, and 621 00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:47,600 Speaker 1: whether it's Jim General, Jim Madison Defense, or Mitt Romney 622 00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:51,200 Speaker 1: or Bob Corker in state who who carefully kind of 623 00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:54,920 Speaker 1: nudge him towards internationalism. That doesn't mean giving away the story. 624 00:33:55,040 --> 00:33:58,440 Speaker 1: It means that American economic power and future depends on 625 00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:01,520 Speaker 1: trade deals. If we walk away from the Trans Pacific 626 00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:05,760 Speaker 1: Partnership that's Global GDP, the Chinese will move in with 627 00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:10,600 Speaker 1: their own highly protectionist for China trade regime will be 628 00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:13,120 Speaker 1: at a disadvantage for a generation. We have an opportunity 629 00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:15,520 Speaker 1: for a free trade agreement with the European Union. It 630 00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,280 Speaker 1: also bothered me that the left, Bernie Sanders and Donald 631 00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:20,560 Speaker 1: Trump talked down trade. I think we're a free trade 632 00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:23,000 Speaker 1: society and we ought to stick with that. We had 633 00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:24,800 Speaker 1: the pleasure of speaking on on election night, thank you 634 00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:27,320 Speaker 1: again for for coming in as those votes were being tabulate, 635 00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:30,200 Speaker 1: and George Mitchell was on the show as well, and 636 00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:33,799 Speaker 1: I was thinking, is there an opportunity here diplomatically for 637 00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:36,880 Speaker 1: there to be someone like a special Envoid of Russia 638 00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,440 Speaker 1: to bridge this relationship. Is there a need here to 639 00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:43,319 Speaker 1: focus more doggedly on improving that relationship with somebody in 640 00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:45,719 Speaker 1: a capacity like Senator Mitchell had in the past. Well, 641 00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:48,040 Speaker 1: there's so many people you could choose for that, former 642 00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:52,160 Speaker 1: Secretary James Baker, Condoleeza Rice, Robert Gates. But here's the deal. 643 00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:54,920 Speaker 1: We don't want to just have a good relationship with Russia. 644 00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:56,920 Speaker 1: We want to have the right relationship with Russia. And 645 00:34:57,000 --> 00:34:58,880 Speaker 1: right now, the deal he wants to make with Donald 646 00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:01,880 Speaker 1: Trump he us the sanctions lifted. These are the energy 647 00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:05,080 Speaker 1: and financial sanctions that have been very difficult for the 648 00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:08,520 Speaker 1: Russian economy. And we shouldn't give that up. Because when 649 00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:10,880 Speaker 1: we give up the sanctions, these are European Union, Canadian, 650 00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:15,440 Speaker 1: American sanctions. Then Putin his stealing crimea, his division of 651 00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:18,640 Speaker 1: Ukraine is rewarded, and that's the bad signal to send. 652 00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:21,120 Speaker 1: So if there's Trump should not be looking for a deal. 653 00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:25,000 Speaker 1: I think that Putin responds to strength and conviction. He's 654 00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:27,920 Speaker 1: that kind of a guy. He takes advantage of weakness. 655 00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:30,040 Speaker 1: And so the right strategy for Trump in his new 656 00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:33,880 Speaker 1: secretary state is tough minded, align yourself with Anglo Merkel, 657 00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:36,560 Speaker 1: keep the sanctions on. The e will vote on this 658 00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:39,280 Speaker 1: in the next ten days, and then wait for Putin 659 00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:42,600 Speaker 1: to crack. So sometimes diplomacy is just not making deals, 660 00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:45,359 Speaker 1: it's being strong and protecting your interests. Let's go back 661 00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:48,160 Speaker 1: to Let's go back to Roosevelt. How does Nick Burns 662 00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:52,480 Speaker 1: show the flag over the next four years this commune? 663 00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:54,120 Speaker 1: I mean, first of all, I think we're gonna have 664 00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:56,719 Speaker 1: all generals in the cabinet the way we're going. But 665 00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:59,399 Speaker 1: are there are there too many generals being involved? How 666 00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:02,080 Speaker 1: do we know? The flag is a nation to the 667 00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:04,440 Speaker 1: rest of the world. So you know, obviously, if you 668 00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:06,920 Speaker 1: can get someone like Jim Maddis to be Defense Secretary, 669 00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:08,440 Speaker 1: that's a good thing for the United States. But you 670 00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:11,320 Speaker 1: don't want to have a cabinet that is primarily in 671 00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:14,560 Speaker 1: national security, military and nature of nature, because you do 672 00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,319 Speaker 1: have civilian control. Is traditionally the United States over the 673 00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:20,560 Speaker 1: military and people from civilian life, whether it's a diplomat 674 00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:23,680 Speaker 1: like Condoleeza or Rice or a politician like Mitt Romney sec. 675 00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:27,960 Speaker 1: This is too important. Should Condo Lisa Roy step forward 676 00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:30,560 Speaker 1: to provide leadership? I want to get you in trouble here, 677 00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:32,560 Speaker 1: and don't get she's a very close friend of mine, 678 00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:34,080 Speaker 1: so don't get me in trouble. I think she's very 679 00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:40,399 Speaker 1: happy where she is asked forward to provide leadership to America. Well, 680 00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:42,200 Speaker 1: she is stepping forward in a lot of different ways 681 00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:44,000 Speaker 1: to provide that leadership. But you know, the President of 682 00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:45,600 Speaker 1: the United States is the one who has to call, 683 00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:47,799 Speaker 1: and he's not going to call. He's already made it clear. 684 00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:51,759 Speaker 1: There are four, as they say reality TV jargon finalists. 685 00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:54,200 Speaker 1: I think this campaign this by the way, this selection 686 00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:57,200 Speaker 1: process been too public. It's demeaning to the people who 687 00:36:57,239 --> 00:36:59,919 Speaker 1: won't make it. We've never had this before in either 688 00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:02,759 Speaker 1: Republican or Democratic administrations. Not the right thing. Thank you 689 00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:05,279 Speaker 1: for visiting Nick Burns with a splasher investor de Greece 690 00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:11,160 Speaker 1: one other services to America's international relations worldwide. This is Bloomberg. 691 00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:24,320 Speaker 1: This is a great honor for David Gura and myself. 692 00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:28,960 Speaker 1: We spoke with Kenneth Rogoff earlier on his economics and 693 00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:31,560 Speaker 1: had what a privilege to speak to ken Rogoff about 694 00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:36,400 Speaker 1: chess and his thoughts on the recent tournament. He is 695 00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:41,120 Speaker 1: the US chess champion. Fabiana Karna who joins us. All 696 00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:46,880 Speaker 1: right now, Fabiana, good morning, Well, it's wonderful to have 697 00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:50,040 Speaker 1: you on. I want to go to David Gura's Park Slope, Brooklyn. 698 00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:54,000 Speaker 1: You moved from Miami to Park Slope, Brooklyn years ago 699 00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:57,600 Speaker 1: and you had the privilege of a giant of chess. 700 00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:02,200 Speaker 1: Is your first coach at age five? Ever six, Bruce Pandelfini. 701 00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:05,960 Speaker 1: All of us have read Bruce Pandelfinie What it was? 702 00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:08,839 Speaker 1: What was it like as a child to work with 703 00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:14,160 Speaker 1: Bruce Pandelfini? Well, just growing up in the chest in 704 00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:16,520 Speaker 1: New York and working with Bruce was was great because 705 00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:19,120 Speaker 1: there's so much history behind it. He's worked with a 706 00:38:19,120 --> 00:38:23,560 Speaker 1: lot of fantastic players. He commented on the UH on 707 00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:28,120 Speaker 1: the match between Bobby Fisher and Borspasky when when he 708 00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:31,120 Speaker 1: was just you know, coming onto the scene. Um. And 709 00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:34,279 Speaker 1: he has a very patient style, which is great for 710 00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:36,640 Speaker 1: you know, a young up and coming chess player. He 711 00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:39,759 Speaker 1: kind of nurtures talent, which which helped me a lot. 712 00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:43,520 Speaker 1: And he's never harsh. I guess you've you've probably seen 713 00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:47,359 Speaker 1: the the movie Searching for Bobby Fisher were um, where 714 00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:51,640 Speaker 1: Bruce is portrayed by Ben Kingsley, And he's very different 715 00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:54,080 Speaker 1: from how he was portrayed in that movie, although they 716 00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:57,239 Speaker 1: did do a great job as well. Yeah, my daughter 717 00:38:57,280 --> 00:38:59,640 Speaker 1: goes to school at the school where you had your 718 00:38:59,640 --> 00:39:01,719 Speaker 1: first asked lessons, and I marvel at how young. The 719 00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:04,120 Speaker 1: kids are there playing chess when I go to to 720 00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:06,640 Speaker 1: pick her up. There's a sense here that there there 721 00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:09,040 Speaker 1: is a gift for chess. There are chess prodigies, but 722 00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:11,720 Speaker 1: this is hard work, and there there's a lot of practice, 723 00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:13,919 Speaker 1: a lot of work that goes into becoming a great 724 00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:16,680 Speaker 1: chess player. Ken Rogoff told us that this morning, talk 725 00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:18,960 Speaker 1: a bit about how you made that jump from somebody 726 00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:21,439 Speaker 1: who was interested in the game indeed good at the game, 727 00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:24,640 Speaker 1: to one of the greatest in the world. I think 728 00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:26,960 Speaker 1: in the United States you have an enormous amount of 729 00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:29,600 Speaker 1: very talented young players starting chest at you know, age 730 00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:32,160 Speaker 1: five six. Um. I started when I was five years old, 731 00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:34,960 Speaker 1: and there was a large group of kids who were 732 00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:39,120 Speaker 1: as talented as me, or more talented, and most of 733 00:39:39,160 --> 00:39:43,680 Speaker 1: them became grandmasters, top players. But um, but I didn't 734 00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:47,839 Speaker 1: stick with it, you know, moved into academics and and 735 00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:52,640 Speaker 1: chose other paths. Well. I basically probably chess professionally from 736 00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:57,120 Speaker 1: the like the age of fourteen, and UM, chess has 737 00:39:57,320 --> 00:40:00,080 Speaker 1: always been like the main focus for me. So I 738 00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:04,080 Speaker 1: think if you take a young player with some talent 739 00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:07,160 Speaker 1: and put them in a strict chess environment of playing 740 00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:09,200 Speaker 1: and studying chess constantly, then there's a good chance that 741 00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:13,120 Speaker 1: they will you reach the top of chess. The chess playing. 742 00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:15,680 Speaker 1: The chess following world has been focused on Lower Manhattan 743 00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:18,400 Speaker 1: here over these last few weeks, Magnus Carlson winning the 744 00:40:18,400 --> 00:40:21,480 Speaker 1: World Chess A Championship, there was a v I P room. 745 00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:23,960 Speaker 1: There are a lot of people watching these games, these matches, indeed, 746 00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:27,359 Speaker 1: from from from around around the world. You've played him before, 747 00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:29,359 Speaker 1: tell us a bit about his style, what he's like 748 00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:33,600 Speaker 1: as a player. Well, Magnus is a player who when 749 00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:37,200 Speaker 1: he gets a better position, even a position where the 750 00:40:37,200 --> 00:40:42,240 Speaker 1: advantage is maybe not visible to most people or extremely minuscule, 751 00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:45,320 Speaker 1: he he tries to nurture that advantage and turn it slowly, 752 00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:48,880 Speaker 1: turn it into something more, something which is more tangible 753 00:40:48,920 --> 00:40:52,200 Speaker 1: and um enough for a win. And he does that 754 00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:54,920 Speaker 1: over the course of many hours. Um he might play, 755 00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:59,040 Speaker 1: you know, a seven hour game trying to turn um 756 00:40:59,200 --> 00:41:02,080 Speaker 1: what looks like nothing thing into into something and eventually 757 00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:05,000 Speaker 1: win the game. Like that, so it is very dangerous 758 00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:07,920 Speaker 1: too to get a bad position against him, well against 759 00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:11,200 Speaker 1: other players in the world. Um, even though obviously you 760 00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:12,640 Speaker 1: don't want to get a bad position, you might have 761 00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:16,440 Speaker 1: more hopes of of trying to salvage the game. Uh 762 00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:20,640 Speaker 1: So against Mangnus, it's possible, it's possible to win. And 763 00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:22,680 Speaker 1: he I mean even he lost a game in this 764 00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:27,040 Speaker 1: last World Championship match. Um so I have I have 765 00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:29,920 Speaker 1: beaten him several times. But it really requires that you 766 00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:33,239 Speaker 1: go for the throat, that you don't be afraid of him, 767 00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:35,640 Speaker 1: um and that you you know, you don't try to 768 00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:38,480 Speaker 1: let's they go into a defensive mode when he might 769 00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:41,319 Speaker 1: slowly strangle you and you you try to get from 770 00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:44,959 Speaker 1: from move on. We are honored, Fabiana, thank you so much. 771 00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:47,520 Speaker 1: He is the chess champion of the United States. And 772 00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:49,799 Speaker 1: of course I urge you to look at all the 773 00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:51,840 Speaker 1: different coverage of what we saw. What a great privilege 774 00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:55,480 Speaker 1: of Keneral and Fabian a car on on Blueberk surveillance 775 00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:58,200 Speaker 1: in the same day. Just that's what. That's what the 776 00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:01,759 Speaker 1: youngest is, David. When we play chess at home, she goes, 777 00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:09,000 Speaker 1: she is she's tough, she's she's known to move all 778 00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:10,759 Speaker 1: of a sudden, you you know, you look away at 779 00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:13,520 Speaker 1: the red Sox or whatever on TV and one of 780 00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:19,480 Speaker 1: your bishops is gone ahead. She's taking no she's taking 781 00:42:19,560 --> 00:42:23,400 Speaker 1: pieces off the board. Struck by what Fratianna said there 782 00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:25,399 Speaker 1: and Ken Rogoff as well, just about how long these 783 00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:28,040 Speaker 1: matches can be, six or seven hours in the physical 784 00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:31,839 Speaker 1: rigor the strength required to play a match. That pretty's great. 785 00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:33,439 Speaker 1: This is what this is why we do the show. 786 00:42:33,480 --> 00:42:37,680 Speaker 1: The surprises folks of dealing with this and dealing with 787 00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:42,040 Speaker 1: Bob Moon as well. You know chess champion of surveillance 788 00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:44,880 Speaker 1: as well. He does that when he's not doing the 789 00:42:44,920 --> 00:42:48,400 Speaker 1: STEM report, he's he's playing chess out with Michael Barr. 790 00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:59,759 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Subscribe and 791 00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:05,000 Speaker 1: listen to interviews on iTunes, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform 792 00:43:05,160 --> 00:43:08,680 Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm out on Twitter at Tom Keene. David 793 00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:12,399 Speaker 1: Gura is at David Gura. Before the podcast, you can 794 00:43:12,520 --> 00:43:28,960 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio. Who you put 795 00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:32,719 Speaker 1: your trust in? Matters? Investors have put their trust in 796 00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:37,160 Speaker 1: independent registered investment advisors to the tune of four trillion dollars. 797 00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:44,239 Speaker 1: Why learn more and find your independent advisor dot com