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Speaker 1: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 2: Fifteen Cundy twenty five, thirty thirty five, Horny Coty five

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Speaker 2: fifty and the kick is black.

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Speaker 3: The college football world stunners. Oh my goodness, he's stumble

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Speaker 3: the football, the lateral turn the corner on thes up.

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Speaker 3: Don't you be lave that I came him.

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Speaker 2: Up the field to night.

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Speaker 1: It's not the size of the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 1: It's the size of the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 2: What's up the general nation?

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast. This is

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Speaker 4: the Conference Championship weekend betting preview. I'm Stucky in with

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Speaker 4: me as always as Colin Wilson.

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Speaker 2: Oh baby, I love this weekend. You ready to roll

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Speaker 2: right roll?

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Speaker 1: It's been like the quietest week I've ever had in

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Speaker 1: the app and the Action Network aapp this week because

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Speaker 1: I had so many futures get to this point. So

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Speaker 1: it's hard for me to go in there and say, yeah,

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Speaker 1: let's ride Western Kentucky this week. When I've took notice

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Speaker 1: of this team since the transfer portal opened in February

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Speaker 1: and I was able to get some money down in May,

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Speaker 1: so I mean, this is it. I've been waiting for

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Speaker 1: this forever.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll talk about some potential hedges later. Hopefully the

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Speaker 2: MAC Manifesto can come through in the second straight year

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Speaker 2: with Kent State as well, but we'll talk about that.

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Speaker 2: We're going to get to all ten conference championship games,

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Speaker 2: and man, I'm excited to break these down because I

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Speaker 2: was able to spend two days on ten games instead

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Speaker 2: of you know, fifty five sixty games. So got a

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Speaker 2: lot of good nuggets to get to and hopefully can

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Speaker 2: find some winners while we all enjoy the games. By

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Speaker 2: the way, just imagine imagine an eighteen playoff or all

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Speaker 2: the Power five conference championships all go to the Cultural playoff.

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Speaker 2: How even more exciting this week, you would me? But

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Speaker 2: I digress. All right, let's work our way in chronological orders.

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Speaker 2: Starting on Friday, Conference USA.

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Speaker 5: Friday Night, seven Eastern on CBS Sports Network at the Alamodome,

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Speaker 5: we have Western Kentucky on the road at UTSA.

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Speaker 2: UTSA is now three three and a half point home

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Speaker 2: underdog over under sitting at a sky high seventy one

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Speaker 2: and a half UTSA seeking its first ever conference title.

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Speaker 2: Western Kentucky It's third. It's two and zero in this

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Speaker 2: conference championship game. By the way, in regards to totals,

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Speaker 2: you know, we have a couple a few high totals

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Speaker 2: this year. Since two thousand and five, per action labs

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Speaker 2: totals that are sixty five or higher, the under has

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Speaker 2: gone fourteen and nine for what it's worth. But this

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Speaker 2: is a revenge spot for West Kentucky, which lost earlier

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Speaker 2: in the season at home in a thriller by five

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Speaker 2: and fifty two to forty seven, in a game where

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Speaker 2: they had the ball first in goal for the win,

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Speaker 2: got a personal foul, and then through an interception. Western

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Speaker 2: Kentucky is now you know, out to a three to

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Speaker 2: three and a half point favorite here. When I look

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Speaker 2: at this game, and by the way, teams that have

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Speaker 2: revenge as Western Kentucky does. I went back and looked

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Speaker 2: at all of the teams that have the same season

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Speaker 2: revenge in a conference championship game since two thousand and five.

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Speaker 2: They're twenty one and twenty against the spread. But there's

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Speaker 2: three dogs that didn't cover in overtime. Pretty bad beats there.

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Speaker 2: And what I looked at was the margin. Sixty five

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Speaker 2: percent of the teams improved their margin from the previous loss.

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Speaker 2: They did so by an average of seven and a

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Speaker 2: half points, so I think there's a slight edge. You know,

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Speaker 2: when you lost the first game, you get to make

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Speaker 2: the adjustments. But I think it's pretty efficiently priced into

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Speaker 2: the market on the close, as you'll see many times

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Speaker 2: this time of year when the markets get more efficient.

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Speaker 2: When I look at this game, I still think utsa's

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Speaker 2: defense is fraudulent. Their pass defense is the liability. Their

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Speaker 2: run defense numbers look good, but they faced a really

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Speaker 2: easy schedule of opposing rush offenses. Look UAB thirty six

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Speaker 2: carries two hundred and thirty eight yards six point six

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Speaker 2: yards of carry, North Texas sixty for three forty five

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Speaker 2: point seven over the past two weeks, and look UTSA.

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Speaker 2: I've been saying, I've been calling them a fraud for weeks.

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Speaker 2: They got destroyed by North Texas. Okay, let's throw that

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Speaker 2: out and let's uh focus on their wins, because they

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Speaker 2: won eleven games. They beat Memphis coming back from with

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Speaker 2: two late touchdowns to barely win. They got a couple

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Speaker 2: fumbles and personal fouls. They beat Western Kentucky failed on

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Speaker 2: the door step to end the game. They beat UAB

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Speaker 2: by three on a last second lucky touchdown. They were

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Speaker 2: out played in all three, they had fewer yards per

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Speaker 2: play In all three they were almost three yards play

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Speaker 2: fewer than UAB, two yards per play fewer then Memphis.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they should not have won those games. And

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Speaker 2: then let's look at the rest of their schedule. Who

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Speaker 2: do they beat, Lamar, Illinois, Middle Tennessee, UNLV Rice, Louisiana Tech, UTEP,

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Speaker 2: Southern miss Those teams are combined thirty two and sixty three.

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Speaker 2: Only UTIP out of winning record five and oh one

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Speaker 2: possession games. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky's zero to three in one

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Speaker 2: possession games. This offense is rolling. They've scored thirty one

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Speaker 2: in every game this year, and they've won seven straight

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Speaker 2: by an average of two touchdowns, average score forty five

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Speaker 2: point three to eighteen point eight. Also, the defense has

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Speaker 2: improved of late. I mean their first five opponents, they

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Speaker 2: only held one to below their yards per play average

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Speaker 2: on the season. They've held five of their past six

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Speaker 2: below by over a yard on average. And they've they've

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Speaker 2: gotten some guys back, They've made a couple of scheme changes.

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Speaker 2: That defense is playing a lot better. I also think

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Speaker 2: it's just a good matchup for them. Their pass defense

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Speaker 2: is much better than the run defense. UTSA has been

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Speaker 2: better throwing the ball this year, even though they have

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Speaker 2: sincere Cormick, and the UTSA run defense is better than

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Speaker 2: its past defense. Well Western Kentucky. The only team that

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Speaker 2: runs at less than Western Kentucky is Mississippi State, another

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Speaker 2: air raid offense, so that doesn't matter. So I think

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Speaker 2: it was a good matchup for Western Kentucky. Their defense

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Speaker 2: is playing a lot better than they were earlier in

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Speaker 2: the year when these two teams met. I don't see

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Speaker 2: how UTSA slows down Zappi hour.

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Speaker 6: And this offense Bailey Zappie.

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Speaker 2: Stearns with fifteen hundred plus yards on a fast track

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Speaker 2: in the Alamodome. I think Western Kentucky gets their revenge.

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Speaker 2: They're the clearly better team here. You know USA is

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Speaker 2: gonna score, but I think that Western Kentucky will score

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Speaker 2: more efficiently and gets stopped less.

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Speaker 1: Let's say you yeah, I mean I came to the

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Speaker 1: same conclusion as you, but from a different angle. And

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Speaker 1: but I don't know if anybody's having a better Twitter

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Speaker 1: week than me. I've got Bailey Zappi retweeting me for

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Speaker 1: some of the plays that he had last weekend, and

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Speaker 1: I got a points per possession conversation going on with

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Speaker 1: Eric Musselman right now. So I'm having a heck of

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Speaker 1: a time on social media. But this is a game

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Speaker 1: I made Western Kentucky minus four and a half in

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Speaker 1: a total of seventy two. You know, the number opened

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Speaker 1: up pick and it's taken nothing but Hilltopper's money, and

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Speaker 1: that's real money, and it's going to keep pushing until

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Speaker 1: it finds some resistance. And the biggest reason I've heard

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Speaker 1: about people taking Utsa and it really just drives me crazy,

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Speaker 1: some of the lazy handicapping in this industry. Well, they

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Speaker 1: beat him. They beat Western Kentucky earlier this season on

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Speaker 1: their own turf, so they're obviously going to win here

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Speaker 1: now as an underdog. That was a fifty two to

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Speaker 1: forty six slug fest. Bailey Zappy had five hundred yards,

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Speaker 1: five touchdowns, and the game had seven lead changes and

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Speaker 1: it was a different Western Kentucky defense. You've already mentioned

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Speaker 1: that Utsa had no pressure on Bailey z Appy. They

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Speaker 1: sacked him just once for two yards. It you know,

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Speaker 1: wasn't a true sack. But Western Kentucky kicked a field

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Speaker 1: goal early, they missed one late. Bailey's Appy threw an

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Speaker 1: interception at the end of the game trying to rush

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Speaker 1: in getting a score, and that's the difference in the game.

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Speaker 2: That's it.

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Speaker 1: So I doubt there's going to be a field goals

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Speaker 1: kicked in this game. I'm sure Tyson Hilton has learned

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Speaker 1: his lesson, and you would ask, well, is this going

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Speaker 1: to happen again? Is this going to be a big shootout?

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Speaker 1: UTSA defense has regressed since that game, whether it be injury,

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Speaker 1: beat up, tired, I don't know what is going on.

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Speaker 1: But North Texas lit him up for forty five UAB.

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Speaker 1: They have an explosive passing game with Dylan Hopkins. They

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Speaker 1: lit him up for thirty for thirty one points, and

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Speaker 1: then Southern miss that has no quarterback almost beat them.

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Speaker 1: You know, UTSA is bottom five and second order win total.

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Speaker 1: If you're unfamiliar with that, it's sort of a pathag

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Speaker 1: to figure out what your real win totals should be.

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Speaker 1: Their secondary is ninety ninth and coverage they're one hundred

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Speaker 1: ninth and defensive pass expected points. They do not do

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Speaker 1: well against the explosive pass. And you know, Western Kentucky

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Speaker 1: right now is eleventh in offensive finishing drives. They They've

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Speaker 1: had forty four tds to just fifteen field goals. I

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Speaker 1: can't see them kicking a field goal in this game.

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Speaker 1: If it's like fourth and eight and they're on the

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Speaker 1: twenty three, I don't see him kicking a field goal.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: For Western Kentucky's defense, it's improved since that game against you.

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Speaker 1: They haven't allowed over twenty one points since October ninth.

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Speaker 1: I couldn't believe that when I looked that up. I

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Speaker 1: just thought the defense gave it up to everybody. If

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Speaker 1: you look at UTSA, we love Sincere McCormick, we love

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Speaker 1: him great running back. He's only created one mistackle in

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Speaker 1: the last three games. He has thirty nine on the season,

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Speaker 1: just one. McCormick is averaging less than two yards after

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Speaker 1: contact in the last three games. This UTSA team is tired.

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Speaker 1: They're going in the opposite direction of Western Kentucky. The

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Speaker 1: road rowners are just gonna get pounced all over. I'm

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Speaker 1: not hedging at all.

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Speaker 6: The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, the pride of the commonwealths.

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Speaker 2: Oh no, no, hell no, oh no, hell no. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I might put a small amount on UTSA maybe for

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Speaker 2: my initial stake. Now that it's past three, you have

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Speaker 2: a chance to middle potentially, which adds some intrigue to it.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, I agree with Western Kentucky. They're they're top

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Speaker 2: thirty in average uts has eighty seven, eighty eight, eighty nine.

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Speaker 2: Also Western talking better special teams, even though they rank

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Speaker 2: dead last. They've been the unluckiest team in the nation

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Speaker 2: in opposing opponent field goals. Things that are just out

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Speaker 2: of your control, Like they've had the worst luck in

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Speaker 2: opponent field goals. Now, UTSA has a really good kicker

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Speaker 2: in due Plesses, but if they're kicking, that's bad news. Yep,

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Speaker 2: So I agree. It's Hilltoppers here or nothing and Zappi

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Speaker 2: hour baby. All right, let's move on to the other

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Speaker 2: game on Friday night. That's the PAC twelve Championship.

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Speaker 6: The PAC twelve Conference.

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Speaker 2: Oh no, we shuck again Oregon in Utah. Utah has

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Speaker 2: a two and a half point favorite here over under fifty.

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Speaker 2: This game is at eight pm Eastern on ABC at

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Speaker 2: Allegiance Stadium in Las Vegas. PAC twelve North nine and

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Speaker 2: one in this game all time, USC was a lone

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Speaker 2: winner from the south back in twenty seventeen. Oregon's go

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Speaker 2: for its third straight PAC twelfth title and fifth overall. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: Utah is looking for its first title, first conference championship

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Speaker 2: game win after losing in both twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen,

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Speaker 2: the latter to these Ducks. The big narrative here is

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Speaker 2: will Oregon get its revenge? We just saw these two

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Speaker 2: teams play a few weeks ago and Utah rolled. I

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Speaker 2: mean it was looked over in the second quarter, and

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Speaker 2: then it was officially over once Oregon punted with a

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Speaker 2: few seconds to go and Kobe returned the punt for

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Speaker 2: a touchdown to end the half. It was ugly for

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Speaker 2: the Ducks. By the way, I have the six rematches

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Speaker 2: to occur in the PAC twelfth Championship five to one

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Speaker 2: by the regular season winner. Utah has been playing really

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Speaker 2: good football. They've averaged two hundred and eighteen yards per

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Speaker 2: game on the ground. I mean since basically since Cam

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Speaker 2: Rising has taken over a quarterback. Utah is playing really

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Speaker 2: good football on both sides of the ball. The question is, well,

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Speaker 2: can Oregon make the necessary adjustments here to have a

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Speaker 2: different result this time around. I will tell you I

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Speaker 2: personally did take some Ducks plus three. I was all

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Speaker 2: about Utah in that first game, Utah was minus three there.

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Speaker 2: I took some money line of Utah. Now Utah's minus

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Speaker 2: three in Vegas, and you're talking about a Utah team

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Speaker 2: that has it never loses at home, one of the

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Speaker 2: hardest places to play in all college football. I have

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Speaker 2: their Hope field advantage over three and a half points.

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Speaker 2: It's the highest in all of college football. So you

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Speaker 2: know that line was assuming Utah was a seven point

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Speaker 2: favorite on a neutral field. Okay, well, Utah roll. You

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Speaker 2: adjust the Oregon down, you adjust Utah U but not

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Speaker 2: to this level. Also, I think Oregon does have the

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Speaker 2: advantage of being able to make some adjustments here, and

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Speaker 2: that week they lost all of their receivers going into

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Speaker 2: that week. Well, Anthony Brown looked really good last week.

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Speaker 2: I think it's going to be a different story this

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Speaker 2: time around. I think there's too much value in Oregon

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Speaker 2: in a game I make basically a pick. So I

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Speaker 2: took the field goal. I am a little worried about

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Speaker 2: some of the rush defense numbers that I've talked about

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Speaker 2: all year with Oregon. Again, it's this really good offensive

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Speaker 2: line for Utah and really good rush offense. But I

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Speaker 2: had to take the three. What say you I had

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Speaker 2: to take the three also.

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Speaker 1: I mean it's just a mathematical play. There's nothing in

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Speaker 1: this that says, oh, Organ's figured it out. And you know,

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Speaker 1: because the handicap from what would be thirteen days prior

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Speaker 1: to the kickoff is still there. There's still those huge

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Speaker 1: advantages that we saw on the ground. There's still problems

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Speaker 1: with you know, cave on Thibodeau, not getting double teamed,

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Speaker 1: not making himself a presence in there. All those advantages

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Speaker 1: still exist. So you know, the number that got up

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Speaker 1: to three that needed to be hit because I make

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Speaker 1: this game a one and it's just too much of

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Speaker 1: an adjustment. So you got to go back to the

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Speaker 1: pressers from this week with Crystal Ball and Whittingham. Whittingham

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Speaker 1: basically came out and said the plan hasn't changed period.

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Speaker 1: Christ Ball gets up there this week and he says,

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Speaker 1: they said, what changes are you going to make? I

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Speaker 1: get ready for Utah this week? He says, we don't

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Speaker 1: do schematics in here. We just have to do better.

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Speaker 1: And basically he didn't want to talk about game plan.

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Speaker 1: But if you go about like eighteen minutes into the

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Speaker 1: press conference, he says, there's going to be wrinkles on

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Speaker 1: both sides of the ball. So that got me thinking, like,

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Speaker 1: what are these wrinkles going to be? You're not going

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Speaker 1: to take Anthony Brown in the mesh rpo and try

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Speaker 1: to shove it over, you know, in between the tackles

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Speaker 1: on first and second down? Is Anthony Brown actually gonna

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Speaker 1: throw on first and second down? Because that's what happened

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Speaker 1: against Oregon State and they were tremendous. They were a

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Speaker 1: completely different team last week in the Civil War, he

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Speaker 1: was cooking, cooking, and I'm so I'm thinking, if there's

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Speaker 1: wrinkles in this game from what they did against Utah,

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Speaker 1: Anthony Brown's going to be throwing pretty early. Twenty four

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Speaker 1: percent above national average in passing plays last week in

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Speaker 1: success rate. I expect Orgon to pass early, and we

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Speaker 1: just have to hope, you know, as a person that

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Speaker 1: holds Orgon plus three, that Brown doesn't have an awful

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Speaker 1: day like you did against Utah before. Now, the defense

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Speaker 1: is another issue. They've struggled against the run all season.

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Speaker 1: They're great in passing downs, they're great at getting pressure,

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Speaker 1: but you have to get into passing downs. I believe

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Speaker 1: Utah ran forty eight of sixty eight plays in standard downs,

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Speaker 1: Orgon could not do enough to get them off schedule,

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Speaker 1: So we'll see. You know, I think the wrinkle on

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Speaker 1: defense you got to put more guys in the box.

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Speaker 1: If you're gonna stop this Utah rush game, you're gonna

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Speaker 1: have to drop somebody in the box. And when you

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Speaker 1: do that, what's camera ising gonna do. He's gonna throw

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Speaker 1: Now can he burn you? Yeah? Absolutely he can't. But

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Speaker 1: when I hear wrinkles on both sides of the ball,

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Speaker 1: that tells me this game's going over. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: the Utes are sixth in defensive havoc and they play

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Speaker 1: in opponents backfields all the time. Did you say utes?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Utes.

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Speaker 1: So this is gonna be a boomer bust effort. Either

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Speaker 1: you're getting the ball out quick and it's going downfield,

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Speaker 1: or there's gonna be problems and there could be some

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Speaker 1: defensive touchdowns here with all these wrinkles. Of course, Utah

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Speaker 1: can make adjustments, of course they can. So I think

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Speaker 1: a first half over is the play on this. Now

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Speaker 1: I will say this fifty nine is key, but I

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Speaker 1: thought over was the play, and it got down to

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Speaker 1: fifty eight. Today we're fifty seven and a half Listen,

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Speaker 1: you want to think that everybody, you want the narrative

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Speaker 1: out there that Orgon's gonna get blown out and they're

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Speaker 1: not gonna score. Fine, let that number drive down. Let

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Speaker 1: these people drive it down, because fifty five is another

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Speaker 1: key number. And if these wrinkles are gonna work, they're

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Speaker 1: gonna work early. So I would rather take a first

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Speaker 1: half over here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And another thing to mention is that that in

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Speaker 2: that game in Utah, I mean, it just snowballed on Oregon,

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Speaker 2: who actually has better overall special teams this year than Utah.

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Speaker 2: Utah is a good punt return unit, but there are

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Speaker 2: special teams other than that have been really poor this year.

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Speaker 2: So I mean, so Utah goes up seven to nothing

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Speaker 2: after they you know, converted a third and six twice.

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Speaker 2: They scored on a third and nine. Then Oregon drives

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Speaker 2: down the field, you know, they get a field goal

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Speaker 2: blocked right. Then Utah scores another touchdown. They go up

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Speaker 2: fourteen to nothing. Oregon drives down towards the inside the

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Speaker 2: Utah red zone again, they miss another field goal. Utah

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Speaker 2: scores again. It's twenty one to nothing, and then Oregon

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Speaker 2: punts as time expires and they've returned the punt for

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Speaker 2: a touchdown. Three awful special team swings in that first half,

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Speaker 2: it's out of half, its rice ecles and you're you're lost,

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Speaker 2: and you just lost all your receivers that week. And

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Speaker 2: Brown is trying to throw to come back, and he

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Speaker 2: was obviously in over his head. So I do think

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Speaker 2: that there is some value with the Oregon. I'll be

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Speaker 2: curious to see what the adjustments are. I do agree

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Speaker 2: that they should be throwing more and being more aggressive

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Speaker 2: on early downs, which would lend itself to a first

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Speaker 2: half over for sure. All Right, so let's move on

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Speaker 2: to Saturday. We'll start at noon eastern with some action.

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Speaker 2: How beautiful is maction? How beautiful is maction?

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Speaker 3: Oh man, just when we thought we had peak maction?

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Speaker 2: Max you self the talking the MAC Championship game between

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Speaker 2: Northern Illinois and Kent State. Kent State is a three

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Speaker 2: and a half point favorite over under seventy four and

348
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Speaker 2: a half. Talk about some maction? Are you serious? Maction?

349
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Speaker 1: You gotta love it?

350
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Speaker 2: These games at noon Eastern on ABC at Ford Field

351
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Speaker 2: and Detroit, Kent State zero and one in the MAC

352
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Speaker 2: Championship game they lost in twenty twelve in their only

353
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Speaker 2: appearance Northern Illinois four and four, last appearing in twenty eighteen.

354
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Speaker 2: Kent State hasn't won a conference championship since nineteen seventy two.

355
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Speaker 2: They will have to beat Northern Illinois for a second

356
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Speaker 2: time in order to do so. Year the first meeting,

357
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Speaker 2: they won fifty two to forty seven, and in an

358
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Speaker 2: absolute shootout. By the way, they have Really Illinois as

359
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Speaker 2: revenge after losing fifty two forty seven. Western Kentucky has

360
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Speaker 2: revenge after losing fifty two to forty six. Kind of

361
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Speaker 2: au But Northern Illinois, Look, they've had a hell of

362
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Speaker 2: a season. This was a team that was projected to

363
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Speaker 2: win four four and a half games, and here they

364
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Speaker 2: are in the MAC title. But they've certainly been fortunate.

365
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Speaker 2: If they're seven to two and one possession games, four

366
00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:40,680
Speaker 2: and oh game in games decided by two points or less,

367
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Speaker 2: they've won four games by one or two points. And

368
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Speaker 2: think about that, how close those games are. And then

369
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Speaker 2: and then think about that they're nineteen of twenty three

370
00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:52,120
Speaker 2: on fourth down on the year, nineteen of twenty three.

371
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Speaker 2: That's eighty two point six percent. That leads the nation.

372
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Speaker 2: Kent by the way, it's like twelve of twenty one,

373
00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:01,720
Speaker 2: close to the national average. And then Northern Illinois opponents

374
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Speaker 2: and by the way, Northern Alloise defense is horrendous one

375
00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:06,400
Speaker 2: hundred and seventeenth of success rate one hundred and twenty

376
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,320
Speaker 2: sixth and early down EPA one hundred and twenty eighth

377
00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:10,920
Speaker 2: and EPA per rush. I could go on and on.

378
00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:13,080
Speaker 2: It's one of the worst defenses in the country. Yet

379
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Speaker 2: opponents against this poverty defense are just ten of twenty

380
00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:21,520
Speaker 2: five on fourth down forty percent. That's top twenty five

381
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Speaker 2: in the nation. Kent State opponents, by the way, or

382
00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:27,800
Speaker 2: eighty five. And yet this defense they've been above average

383
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Speaker 2: on third and fourth down somehow because of this fourth

384
00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:32,520
Speaker 2: down lock, because of some third down lock. But this

385
00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:34,440
Speaker 2: is a team on early downs. It's a bottom five

386
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Speaker 2: defense in the country. That's why Kent State just went

387
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Speaker 2: up and down the field and scored up will in

388
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Speaker 2: the first meeting. I don't see how that doesn't happen again.

389
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Speaker 2: It's the Kent State offense that's been rolling. Now look

390
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Speaker 2: Northern Illinois, their offense is great too, It's been really good.

391
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Speaker 2: Rocky Lombardi gets rid of the ball quick. They have

392
00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:53,280
Speaker 2: some really good receivers. Anyone they put in the backfield

393
00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:55,760
Speaker 2: can run it. They could get Tyree's Richie Back, one

394
00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:58,960
Speaker 2: of their better receivers, but Trayvon Rudolph's a walking explosive play.

395
00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:01,560
Speaker 2: He had over three hundred cards receiving against Kent State

396
00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:03,720
Speaker 2: in that meeting. But here's how the game's gonna go.

397
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Speaker 2: It's a Kent State's defense is awful as well. Kent

398
00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:10,239
Speaker 2: State's gonna score and score quickly. I mean this day

399
00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:12,800
Speaker 2: were scoring over and over again and under a minute

400
00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:15,159
Speaker 2: in that first matchup, and then they can't kick it off.

401
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:18,359
Speaker 2: It's the worst kickoff team in the nation. They have

402
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:22,000
Speaker 2: six touchbacks. That's the fewest in the country. Teams are

403
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:25,280
Speaker 2: starting on average with the thirty five yard line after kickoffs.

404
00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:29,200
Speaker 2: National average is like the twenty six. It's really bad.

405
00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:31,960
Speaker 2: So not only is there they can score quick and

406
00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,080
Speaker 2: then the other team is starting sometimes at the thirty

407
00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:37,080
Speaker 2: five to forty forty five vigor is gonna score. This

408
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,320
Speaker 2: should be a shootout. I don't think the market is

409
00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:43,600
Speaker 2: properly adjusting for one these Kent State poor kickoffs. Two

410
00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:47,520
Speaker 2: the track, which I think adds like about a point

411
00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 2: and a half or so. Playing at Ford field. A

412
00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:52,040
Speaker 2: lot of times these Matkins play outside on you know,

413
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:55,119
Speaker 2: bad field. This is a fast field here, so I

414
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:58,879
Speaker 2: think there's that I make this total eighty so I played. Oh,

415
00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:00,520
Speaker 2: all I've been doing for the last the past month

416
00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 2: is playing Kent State overs, except that Ackring game where

417
00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:05,400
Speaker 2: I didn't go near it because you know, they really

418
00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:07,480
Speaker 2: didn't have to win, or you know, once they got up,

419
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:08,800
Speaker 2: they just kind of took their foot off against They

420
00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:11,240
Speaker 2: played slow that game, but when they were actually running

421
00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:15,240
Speaker 2: their fast offense, it's just just an over machine. The

422
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,480
Speaker 2: game is routinely hit ninety points. So I like the over.

423
00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:21,800
Speaker 2: I also like Kent State. I have fourteen to one futures.

424
00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:23,800
Speaker 2: I might add Northern Illinois plus three and a half

425
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,280
Speaker 2: because all they do is play games that are decided

426
00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:29,000
Speaker 2: by one or two and hopefully they eventually are due

427
00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,399
Speaker 2: to lose one year. But I think Kent State is

428
00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:35,000
Speaker 2: going to just score a few more top touchdowns than

429
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:38,440
Speaker 2: Northern Illinois, who's going to have to settle for maybe

430
00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:40,840
Speaker 2: a field goal or two. And maybe you see some

431
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 2: of that fourth down regression. They're at eighty two percent,

432
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,400
Speaker 2: so maybe there's a turnover on downs here, and that's

433
00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:47,440
Speaker 2: the key been waiting for it all year. But I

434
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:49,840
Speaker 2: like Kent State. I make them a six point favorite,

435
00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:52,400
Speaker 2: really like them under three, and I like the over.

436
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:54,880
Speaker 2: Anything up to seventy five is fine.

437
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:58,040
Speaker 1: I one hundred percent agree with you. I think the

438
00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 1: bypoint on there there is a couple of rogue threes

439
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 1: out there on Kent. So if you didn't have any

440
00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:04,440
Speaker 1: future on this game whatsoever, I think that's the way

441
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:07,120
Speaker 1: you want to go. Yes, there was a shootout last time,

442
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:09,240
Speaker 1: but what people don't realize is that Kent was pretty

443
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:12,520
Speaker 1: much in control that entire game. I mean, Northern Illinois

444
00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:15,280
Speaker 1: had a flurry of points in the fourth quarter. If

445
00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:18,120
Speaker 1: you go back and look, Kent State on November third

446
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:21,240
Speaker 1: won just by five, but finished with a ninety percent

447
00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:25,760
Speaker 1: postgame win expectancy. It was in control the entire time.

448
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:29,200
Speaker 1: Kent State nine point one overall yards per play to

449
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:33,399
Speaker 1: Northern Illinois six point nine yards per play. It just

450
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:35,280
Speaker 1: it really, when you look at it from a box

451
00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:37,720
Speaker 1: score perspective, the game just wasn't that close. I know

452
00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:41,639
Speaker 1: it says it closed it five, but twenty points in

453
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:44,920
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter by the Huskies, there's just no reason,

454
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:46,879
Speaker 1: like Stuck said, to think that this game is going

455
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:48,760
Speaker 1: to end up any differently. But the thing is is

456
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 1: that Kent State had a monster leading this game for

457
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 1: a really long time. And even though Northern Illinois is

458
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,280
Speaker 1: outside the top one hundred and tempo and they don't

459
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,200
Speaker 1: move very fast, I think it's really important to see

460
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:01,080
Speaker 1: what they did in the fourth quarter of that game.

461
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 1: So down by eighteen points, they scored three touchdowns, they

462
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,160
Speaker 1: only took six minutes off the clock, and they ran

463
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:11,200
Speaker 1: twenty eight plays. I know the number is high. I

464
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,720
Speaker 1: think seventy four is extremely high. I think it should

465
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,320
Speaker 1: be down around seventy two. You know, to me, this

466
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:20,000
Speaker 1: has Kent Team Total written all over it. There is

467
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 1: nothing in Northern Illinois's defensive numbers. They're bottom ten and

468
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:26,680
Speaker 1: almost everything. I'd be on Kent Team Total over. For

469
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:29,399
Speaker 1: those of you that do have Kent future tickets, like

470
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:31,680
Speaker 1: stuck and I do, I am going to be playing

471
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 1: back on the Northern Illinois side, just because they've had

472
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 1: this voodoo horseshoe up the ass. They went and saw

473
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:39,200
Speaker 1: tarot card reader in New Orleans and for some reason,

474
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:42,479
Speaker 1: the black magic is all on their side. But there

475
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 1: hasn't been any resistance in the market is stucky and

476
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:49,359
Speaker 1: I record this on Thursday, late afternoon. The number is

477
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,119
Speaker 1: still going three, three and a half. I've seen three

478
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:54,359
Speaker 1: and a half juice at some shops. I want the

479
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 1: best Northern Illinois possible and maybe get both sides of it,

480
00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,560
Speaker 1: but definitely expect a Northern Illinois coming through the app.

481
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:02,880
Speaker 1: But if you have no prior play in this Kent

482
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 1: State team, total over is definitely the player I would make.

483
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 2: There should be a ton of points in this game,

484
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 2: so you might be able to get a better number

485
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:13,560
Speaker 2: live on on either side. Maybe I think on maybe

486
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:15,639
Speaker 2: on Northern Illinois. I mean that game finished fifty two

487
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 2: forty seven. It was seven nothing at the end of

488
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:19,359
Speaker 2: the first quarter. Kent State scored thirty one points in

489
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 2: the second quarter, and Northern on No is four or

490
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:23,680
Speaker 2: four on fourth down. I expect them to be aggressive

491
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:25,840
Speaker 2: on fourth down again, so that could lead to points

492
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:27,359
Speaker 2: either way that you are gonna be like turning it

493
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 2: over or you know Kent State's gonna get it, or

494
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 2: they're gonna score. The numbers Northern Illinois games are weird.

495
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:35,560
Speaker 2: Look they've had They've won four games by one or two.

496
00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 2: They go for two whether they're down, they just go

497
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 2: for two at all these weird times. That makes like

498
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 2: three not as key. So maybe if if you if

499
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:46,920
Speaker 2: you're at three and you and you can get a

500
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:48,680
Speaker 2: cheaper money line, it might be the way to go.

501
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:51,440
Speaker 2: I also could see someone deciding to go for two.

502
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,160
Speaker 2: We saw that last week at the Cat Miami game.

503
00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 2: All right, can't wait for that one noon Eastern. The

504
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 2: drinks will be flowing if you're the next and then

505
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 2: let me know, West out of Tallent haven't a party.

506
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 2: It stucks flash fast, baby. All right, let's move on

507
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 2: to the Big Twelve Championship in Arlington, Texas at eighteen

508
00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 2: and t State also at noon Eastern on Fox.

509
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:19,160
Speaker 6: The Big Twelve Conference Alive and Thriving.

510
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:27,159
Speaker 3: Times Patty Fits.

511
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:30,600
Speaker 2: You gotta really feel bad for Baylor and Oklahoma State

512
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 2: fans like getting to the Big Twelve title. Oklahoma was

513
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:37,200
Speaker 2: favored to win this conference and Iowa State like everyone

514
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:38,639
Speaker 2: thought it was gonna be i With State Oklahoma, and

515
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:41,440
Speaker 2: now you get Baylor Oklahoma State and no one's gonna

516
00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 2: be watching since the MAC game's on at the same

517
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:46,720
Speaker 2: it's the same time. It's rather unfortunate, but we'll still

518
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:49,240
Speaker 2: break the game down here. Both teams are seeking their

519
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 2: first ever Big twelve championship Game victory, which was held

520
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:55,480
Speaker 2: between ninety six and twenty ten. Then there was like

521
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 2: a six year hiatus when they just did a round

522
00:25:57,359 --> 00:26:00,480
Speaker 2: robin and no title game, and then it's been held

523
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:03,399
Speaker 2: since twenty seventeen. Baylor only appeared once in twenty nineteen,

524
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:06,920
Speaker 2: and the Pokes have never appeared in the conference championship game. Shockingly,

525
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 2: the Pokes did with the conference title in twenty eleven

526
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 2: and Baylor won two in twenty thirteen to fourteen when

527
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:14,560
Speaker 2: there wasn't a conference championship game. These two teams have

528
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:16,640
Speaker 2: treated better as really well this year. Oak says ninety

529
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 2: two and one against the spread, Baylor's eight and four

530
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 2: against the spread. Another revenge game here, as Oklahoma State

531
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 2: of suffocated Baylor early in the season in a low

532
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:33,639
Speaker 2: scoring affair. Baylor's offense, I'm not buying it still to

533
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:37,879
Speaker 2: this day, whether it's Bohannon, who is questionable with a

534
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 2: hamstring injury, didn't play last week. He had Blake Shapen,

535
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 2: So it's either gonna be Bohannan who was like, what

536
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 2: is his best attribute? I mean, we've seen his throwing

537
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:49,440
Speaker 2: is going down to that he can run a little bit, Well,

538
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:51,359
Speaker 2: he's got to hurt hamsterring or you're gonna go with

539
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:57,200
Speaker 2: a freshman against this Oklahoma State defense, I don't really

540
00:26:57,280 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 2: see that working out well. The Baylor offense is also

541
00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 2: only average on early downs and EPA and success rate,

542
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:05,880
Speaker 2: but they're top twenty five on late downs. I don't

543
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 2: necessarily think this offensive output is sustainable. And look, they

544
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 2: want to run first and get into third and manageables,

545
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:16,200
Speaker 2: but Oklahoma State's defense is elite. I mean, number two

546
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:19,200
Speaker 2: in early down EPA plus they're also number one and

547
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 2: third and fourth down by the way to lead the

548
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,800
Speaker 2: country in opponent third down conversion rate of twenty four

549
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:29,160
Speaker 2: point seven percent. The other side, the Baylor defense, look,

550
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 2: they've been a pretty average on early downs, Like if

551
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:32,680
Speaker 2: you look at some of the metrics, you say, well,

552
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:35,200
Speaker 2: it's kind of worrying, but they do a really good

553
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 2: job confusing quarterbacks on third downs. Their numbers on late

554
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 2: downs are really good. That just might be scheme days.

555
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 2: Maybe maybe that's not just luck. The Oklahoma State offense

556
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:49,240
Speaker 2: has been better on early downs, but they've been hard

557
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 2: on late downs, So that'll be an interesting battle. The

558
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:55,640
Speaker 2: Oklahoma State offense has gotten better late in the year

559
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:58,200
Speaker 2: than what we saw early in the year, got healthier,

560
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,359
Speaker 2: especially with Tay Martin getting back in the mix, and

561
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 2: Spencer Sanders is playing a little better. I do I

562
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:07,119
Speaker 2: lean this under because I just can't see the Baylor

563
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 2: offense doing much. And I do think dave I Rand

564
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 2: is gonna come up with a really good scheme here

565
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 2: to slow down Oklahoma State's offense. The one thing that

566
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:17,679
Speaker 2: does concern me a bit, and I'm curious to get

567
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:19,360
Speaker 2: your thoughts on this because I don't have a play

568
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 2: on this game yet. Oklahoma State went with tempo last

569
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 2: week against Oklahoma. Is that just a tool in the

570
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 2: toolbox when necessary? Is that something they say like, look, wow,

571
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:36,239
Speaker 2: we had some success going a little tempo. Do they

572
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 2: do that now? And then all of a sudden, you know,

573
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 2: on a fast track and using tempo? This under doesn't

574
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:48,680
Speaker 2: look as appetizing for what it's worth. Big twelve Big

575
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 2: Twelve Championship game since two thousand and five eight and

576
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:58,040
Speaker 2: two to the under and underdogs are just three and seven.

577
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,240
Speaker 2: What are your thoughts here? Help us break this down.

578
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, interesting that you mentioned the record of the Unders

579
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 1: in this game, because that's kind of where I'm leaning.

580
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 1: And you mentioned the Oklahoma State kind of sped up Oklahoma,

581
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 1: and I think that was to keep the now departed

582
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 1: Alex Grinch for making substitutions and not allowing Spencer Sanders

583
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 1: and our new favorite wide receiver Ta Martin, who we

584
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:23,480
Speaker 1: keyed on last week on the podcast saying this was

585
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 1: a big, big, you know player for this, you know,

586
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 1: to to burn Oklahoma. I think the reason they went

587
00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:34,000
Speaker 1: hurry up is to prevent substitutions and to take advantage

588
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 1: of what we said last week. Oklahoma doesn't have a

589
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:39,360
Speaker 1: single player in the defensive backfield the ranks in the

590
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 1: top two hundred grading at the corner of the safety position,

591
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:43,960
Speaker 1: so let's just go at them. And I think that's

592
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 1: exactly what we saw. So, you know, overall with this game,

593
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 1: it's a game where I power rated at four. I

594
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 1: have no interest in five and a half. It's touched

595
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 1: six times. You could see there's been buyback on Baylor

596
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 1: this week, but I have no interest in backing Baylor either.

597
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 1: These teams met in Week five, the Pokes one by ten,

598
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 1: but they gave up three turnovers, So yeah, they won

599
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 1: by ten, But I mean they tried to lose the

600
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 1: game too. Baylor struggled in that game in passing downs

601
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 1: and scoring opportunities. That's the reason that they didn't even

602
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 1: get close. And the most fascinating matchup on the field

603
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,360
Speaker 1: is going to be Broyle's Award candidate offensive coordinator Jeff

604
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 1: Grimes for Baylor taking on Broyles Award candidate Jim Knowles,

605
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 1: who's a defensive coordinator for Oklahoma State. But really this

606
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:26,080
Speaker 1: game is about Gary Bohannon. He's viled to the Bears.

607
00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 1: He has to be moving around the pocket. Bohannon did

608
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 1: practice this week, but it was called a non helmet practice.

609
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 1: I'm not really sure what that means when your injury

610
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 1: is your hamstring. So there's no word on whether he's

611
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 1: going to play. So Blake Shapin could get the start.

612
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:43,240
Speaker 1: But Gundy came out in his presser and said, look,

613
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 1: Bohannon and Shapen, they run the same scheme. It's just

614
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 1: a difference of one of these guys as a freshman

615
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 1: who makes a lot of mistakes. And Randa talked about that.

616
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 1: Randa is nervous with Blake Shapin out there, like he

617
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:58,480
Speaker 1: would talk about, you know, taking hits or taking extra

618
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 1: time in the pocket random I mean literally the guy

619
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 1: that he scared for his life to have his freshman

620
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 1: back there under quarterback. So it's a bad matchup if

621
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:08,720
Speaker 1: it's shapen because the Bears offensive line is eighty fourth

622
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:12,480
Speaker 1: and passing down sacrate and Oklahoma State defense excels in

623
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 1: getting you into long down and distances. Said it last week,

624
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:19,400
Speaker 1: I'll say it again. Oklahoma State's defense number one in

625
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 1: three and outs, number one in hard stops. I'm not

626
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 1: saying they're Georgia, They're at least number two in the

627
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 1: country for having the best defense. Spencer Sanders is getting

628
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 1: better and better. That was the handicap last week, especially hitting.

629
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 1: You know, Tay Martin and the Pokes average nine point

630
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 1: seven yards per play in passing downs against the Sooners.

631
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 1: But this is still a Dave Randon defense. And I

632
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 1: know the handicap against Oklahoma was when Baylor played Oklahoma's like, hey,

633
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 1: David Randa has really had Lincoln Riley's number. Well, I

634
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 1: got news for you. David Randa's had Spencer Sanders' number.

635
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 1: If you look at the last two games where Baylor

636
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 1: has faced Spencer Sanders, He's had five interceptions. You know,

637
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:58,320
Speaker 1: Spencer Sanders has not been able to figure out this

638
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 1: multiple three three five look where people are moving around.

639
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 1: They're disguising coverages and blitz at the same time. Baylor's

640
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 1: not scoring. They average twenty five point five points through

641
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 1: the month of November. Bohannan's beat up. We don't know

642
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 1: the shape of his hamstring. I think there could be

643
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 1: some turnovers of shaping. Is in there a little careless

644
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 1: with the ball, you know, because technically this is a

645
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 1: hangover spot. And I don't think that this hurry up,

646
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:25,000
Speaker 1: speed up offense for Oklahoma State is real. Give me

647
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 1: a first half under in this game, yeah.

648
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 2: I could see that. Yeah, then you don't worry about

649
00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 2: one of these teams potentially speeding it up if they

650
00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 2: get down big or throwing a lot more in the

651
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 2: second half and then you get some turnovers. One of

652
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 2: the things that I'm that just gives me maybe it's

653
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 2: Oklahoma States, it's just their season. Their defense has been unbelievable.

654
00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 2: But when they've been a little bit of a voodoo team,

655
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:52,440
Speaker 2: when is the when is the this gonna reverse itself? Right?

656
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:55,080
Speaker 2: Like against Tulsa they get a kick return for a

657
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 2: touchdown to win. Right. Against Poise State, they get a

658
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 2: rogue whistle. It took that basically Cossboise State the game, right.

659
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 2: They get Texas, they're about to go down what twenty

660
00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 2: one to nothing, and they get a pick six to

661
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 2: completely flip that game around. Against Oklahoma, they get a

662
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 2: kick return for a touchdown, which was huge in that game.

663
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 2: So they keep getting these like very timely touchdowns, not

664
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 2: or whistles and just weird plays. That is what scares me.

665
00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 2: But I think that Baylor is outclassed here from an

666
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 2: offensive perspective. But I like that look at the first

667
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:34,160
Speaker 2: half under I think, I think I will I'll join

668
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 2: you there, all right, So let's move on to our

669
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 2: next game. Three pm on Fox. We're talking Mountain West

670
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:45,520
Speaker 2: Championship between Utah State and San Diego State.

671
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 6: The Mountain West Conference.

672
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 2: Rocking up. This game is in Carson, California, which is

673
00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 2: where San Diego State has played their home games this year,

674
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:03,160
Speaker 2: a couple hours from campus. San Diego State two to

675
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:06,120
Speaker 2: zero in the Mountain West Championship game. In the past,

676
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:09,439
Speaker 2: they won it in twenty fifteen to twenty sixteen Utah

677
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:11,840
Speaker 2: State zero to one. They lost their only appearance in

678
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:15,800
Speaker 2: twenty thirteen. When I look at this game, I'm starting

679
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 2: to like San Diego State more and more. I just

680
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:22,240
Speaker 2: hate laying six with them. But I think this Utah

681
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 2: State team, for lack of a better word, stinks. So

682
00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:30,799
Speaker 2: let's let's just take a look at this Utah State team,

683
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:34,480
Speaker 2: which's has won eight games. First of all, it's been

684
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 2: a hell of a season. What a turnaround from last year.

685
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 2: They were like boycotting games and it was one of

686
00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:41,800
Speaker 2: the worst years in program history. Now to be in

687
00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 2: the Mountain West Championship game. But let's take a look

688
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 2: at this this schedule, shall we Utah State first game

689
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:50,319
Speaker 2: of the year, they scored two touchdowns in the final

690
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,279
Speaker 2: five minutes to beat Washington State by two in a

691
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 2: game where Guarantano started for the Cougars. Prayer win, absolute prayer,

692
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:01,520
Speaker 2: all right. Then they beat air Force by four. They

693
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:04,320
Speaker 2: scored two late touchdowns again in the fourth quarter to

694
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 2: get that done, and the Air Force fumbles on the

695
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:10,120
Speaker 2: last possession. Another just pulled a rabbit out of that,

696
00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:13,040
Speaker 2: all right. How about UNLV, Oh well, they scored a

697
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 2: touchdown in the final minute about thirty seconds to win

698
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:19,840
Speaker 2: by four against UNLV. After UNLV lost at starting quarterback

699
00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 2: who was actually their second string quarterback in the second half.

700
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:25,799
Speaker 2: All right, Well, i'bout Colorado State. Pretty bad team. Well,

701
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:27,480
Speaker 2: they won a two. They won by two at home

702
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:30,760
Speaker 2: after Colorida State missed a forty yard field goals time expired.

703
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 2: This is like Northern Illinois and of the West. All right,

704
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 2: So how about their other wins?

705
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:36,759
Speaker 7: All right?

706
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:41,920
Speaker 2: They beat North Dakota, Hawaii, New Mexico State, and San

707
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:46,040
Speaker 2: Jose State, four teams with losing records, and then they

708
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 2: lost by double digits at home to Wyoming, Boise State,

709
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:52,800
Speaker 2: and BYU. And we talked about fourth down progression in

710
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:53,480
Speaker 2: Northern Illinois.

711
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 3: This is Northern Illinois.

712
00:35:56,239 --> 00:36:00,320
Speaker 2: Utah State leads the nation in fourth down defense, the

713
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:02,439
Speaker 2: third in the nation, twenty eight percent. Teams are twenty

714
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:06,480
Speaker 2: eight percent against them. This team is just has pulled

715
00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 2: wins out of their ass all year long, and anyone

716
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:17,080
Speaker 2: with a pulse that they've played, they've gotten run off

717
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 2: the field. I mean that Wyoming where they lose by

718
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 2: thirty at home. So I think San Diego State, their defensive,

719
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 2: their secondary showed me a lot last week. I had

720
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:28,760
Speaker 2: questions about them. They lost three pros from last year's secondary.

721
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:30,839
Speaker 2: We know their schemes elite, we know you can't run

722
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:33,360
Speaker 2: on them. The question becomes kin Logan Bonner, who did

723
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 2: get a little banged up against New Mexico. Can him

724
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 2: And you know Devin Tompkins was a stud receiver. This

725
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:41,400
Speaker 2: is UTU. They can't run the ball, so it's just

726
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:43,520
Speaker 2: gonna come down to kN Logan Bonner hit these big

727
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:46,239
Speaker 2: explosive passing plays. I saw enough from the San Diego

728
00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:49,959
Speaker 2: State defense of backfield last week against Poise to believe

729
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 2: that they can hold their own. Hear Jordan Brookshire played

730
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 2: so well for San Diego State. He's more willing to

731
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 2: go downfield, gives them Maybe he can carry over some

732
00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 2: of that momentum. But I think San Diego's State can

733
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:04,000
Speaker 2: move the ball here. You have to punt God in

734
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:06,719
Speaker 2: your back pocket as well. I think that it's just

735
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:09,879
Speaker 2: this Utah State team is completely fraudulent. So I think

736
00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:12,440
Speaker 2: that San Diego State, even though I hate laying points

737
00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:15,759
Speaker 2: with them, hate lang six, I think they might be

738
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 2: the player at under a touchdown.

739
00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:19,120
Speaker 1: What do you think I make it minus eight and

740
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:21,799
Speaker 1: a half. I'm right there with you. SP plus actually

741
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:24,320
Speaker 1: makes this game. San Diego State minus thirteen. So you

742
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:26,360
Speaker 1: want to talk about a power rating system that hates

743
00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:29,400
Speaker 1: the Aggies, there are others out there that don't like

744
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:33,880
Speaker 1: them either. So and you know, I just echo everything

745
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:35,840
Speaker 1: that you have to say about San Diego State, and

746
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:39,080
Speaker 1: I'm glad that you've come around on on how exciting

747
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:42,360
Speaker 1: and explosive this team is right now. I don't know

748
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:43,759
Speaker 1: if I'm going to take it over in this game.

749
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:45,719
Speaker 1: I do project a total of forty nine and a half.

750
00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:51,080
Speaker 1: Market is sitting at fifty as techovers. But I think

751
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:53,520
Speaker 1: the one area that you want to focus on is

752
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 1: that San Diego State is top fifteen in the nation

753
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:59,760
Speaker 1: in rush explosiveness, Utah States defense outside the top one hundred.

754
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:02,080
Speaker 1: So you see Lucas Johnson take off out of the pocket,

755
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:04,480
Speaker 1: he could go to the house. When you see either

756
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:08,359
Speaker 1: or Brookshire Brookshire, I mean one too. I don't even

757
00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 1: know how that game went under last week. I mean they,

758
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:12,160
Speaker 1: I mean Brookshire came in. It was just a completely

759
00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 1: different ways.

760
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:15,960
Speaker 2: Welcome to the San Diego State under party. It took

761
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 2: you long enough to.

762
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:19,880
Speaker 1: So the Greg and chance Bell, I mean, if they

763
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 1: break through that that that initial line, I mean they

764
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:24,640
Speaker 1: literally can take it to the house, and I think

765
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:26,000
Speaker 1: that's the one thing that you want to look at

766
00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 1: if you're thinking about taking an under here, is that

767
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:32,520
Speaker 1: there is the element of the explosive play on the

768
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:34,920
Speaker 1: ground for San Diego State that's in favor for them.

769
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:37,759
Speaker 1: Stuck's right about the defense for San Diego State. This

770
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:40,480
Speaker 1: They're going to shut down any rushing attempt. I can't

771
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:42,879
Speaker 1: believe that Utah State actually runs the ball fifty three

772
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 1: percent of the time. And I'm looking at their run rate,

773
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:47,360
Speaker 1: but you know, when they do pass with Bonner, they

774
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:50,239
Speaker 1: have been tenth in passing success rate, but just a

775
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:53,960
Speaker 1: big difference in havoc here. There's two things why you

776
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:57,000
Speaker 1: can accept taking San Diego State minus six because it

777
00:38:57,080 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 1: is a big number for that team. One of them

778
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 1: is the fact that they are eighth in defensive havoc.

779
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 1: They get into the backfield. They have tons of pass breakups, interceptions,

780
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:10,719
Speaker 1: forced fumbles. Utah State's offense is seventy six. They are

781
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:12,800
Speaker 1: loose with the ball. I mean a lot of that

782
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 1: luck that they've had this year, They've had some fumbles

783
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:17,280
Speaker 1: bounce their way. And then the other one is finishing

784
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:20,320
Speaker 1: drives and listen, I'm going to update this story and

785
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:23,000
Speaker 1: we've referenced it every other week here on the podcast.

786
00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 1: There is a direct correlation to winning finishing drives covering

787
00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:31,800
Speaker 1: the spread, and there is a monster gap in finishing

788
00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:34,320
Speaker 1: drives in this game, particularly when San Diego State is

789
00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:37,720
Speaker 1: eighteenth on defense, Utah State is outside the top one hundred.

790
00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:40,759
Speaker 1: Utah State needs that explosive play to score points and

791
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:42,960
Speaker 1: it's just not going to come against the Aztecs. So

792
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:44,520
Speaker 1: I'm going to lay the six here. As a matter

793
00:39:44,560 --> 00:39:45,880
Speaker 1: of back, I'm going to push some money across the

794
00:39:45,960 --> 00:39:48,839
Speaker 1: counter while you and I are podcasting, because I think

795
00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:50,520
Speaker 1: this thing can go up even higher. There's one book

796
00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:51,839
Speaker 1: at six and a half. I'm just going to take

797
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:54,080
Speaker 1: the six and we'll have fun with this one, all.

798
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:57,279
Speaker 2: Right, I'm in all right. Let's move on to the

799
00:39:57,480 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 2: Sun Belt Conference Championship, the Sun.

800
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:03,560
Speaker 6: Belt Conference, the Fun Belt.

801
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:07,160
Speaker 7: Don't let the latest come between you and the Belt.

802
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:12,960
Speaker 2: Talk a little fun Belt here between Appalachian State and Louisiana.

803
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:17,520
Speaker 2: This game is at three pm Eastern on ESPN and Lafayette, Louisiana.

804
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:20,480
Speaker 2: This is a road game for Appalaxian State. Another game

805
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:24,440
Speaker 2: where we have same season revenge Louisiana really took it

806
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:28,799
Speaker 2: to Appalachian State earlier this season. There's only been two

807
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:31,920
Speaker 2: previous conference title games in the fun Belt. Last year

808
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:34,399
Speaker 2: got canceled. Right at least we get the fun Belt

809
00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:37,279
Speaker 2: this year, full fingers crossed. I assume it will happen.

810
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:41,759
Speaker 2: And in both conference title games, app State beat Louisiana.

811
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 2: Technically Louisiana is the raiding champ or co champs with

812
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:49,959
Speaker 2: Coastal Carolina because the game got canceled. But the question

813
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:53,680
Speaker 2: here is what did Louisiana do to dominate that first

814
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:58,239
Speaker 2: game and ken app State turn it around? I say, yes,

815
00:40:58,320 --> 00:40:59,919
Speaker 2: I took Gap State minus two and a half. There's

816
00:40:59,920 --> 00:41:03,719
Speaker 2: a couple things. There's a couple things that I like here.

817
00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:08,279
Speaker 2: Number one, Louisiana has just not impressed me at all

818
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:11,239
Speaker 2: this year. What is this close game bok gonna run out?

819
00:41:11,239 --> 00:41:13,359
Speaker 2: There's six to zero one possession games this year, five

820
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:15,879
Speaker 2: by five or less. How about the last two years

821
00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:19,080
Speaker 2: they're twelve and one in one possession games. I mean,

822
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:23,440
Speaker 2: that's just insane. They beat three Bowl teams this year,

823
00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:28,240
Speaker 2: Georgia State in the final minute, app State, and Liberty

824
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:31,239
Speaker 2: with a ten to one turnover margin In those two games.

825
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:34,840
Speaker 2: APP State just two and one in one possession games

826
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:37,479
Speaker 2: four and one versus ball teams, with that lone loss

827
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:41,000
Speaker 2: coming against Louisiana. I think that game was an anomaly,

828
00:41:41,560 --> 00:41:45,319
Speaker 2: and the app offense is, you know, they're not they

829
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 2: haven't been great at running the ball, but they've been

830
00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:51,080
Speaker 2: really good at throwing it. That's strength on strength here

831
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:56,239
Speaker 2: against this Louisiana team. Their secondary has been excellent. On

832
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:58,879
Speaker 2: the other side of the ball, Louisiana's offense has been

833
00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:01,280
Speaker 2: just really underwhelming all year. On the app State defense

834
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:04,320
Speaker 2: has been dominant and they just keep improving weekend and

835
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:06,759
Speaker 2: week out. The Cajuns are a better running team than

836
00:42:06,760 --> 00:42:08,879
Speaker 2: they are throwing, but the app State is their run

837
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:14,160
Speaker 2: defense is so stout and the other factor here. I

838
00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:17,239
Speaker 2: just think app State is the better team they will be.

839
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:22,680
Speaker 2: I think a little more motivated after that embarrassing loss

840
00:42:22,800 --> 00:42:25,840
Speaker 2: early in the season because I'm not sure where this

841
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 2: Louisiana team's head's at. Because their head coach, your boy,

842
00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:33,040
Speaker 2: we'll see if you say his name was hired by Florida,

843
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:39,200
Speaker 2: and he said, well, I'm gonna prepare for Florida, but

844
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:42,240
Speaker 2: set some time aside. I'm gonna set some time aside

845
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:45,799
Speaker 2: for both during the week. What but it makes sense

846
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:48,120
Speaker 2: because like and if I set time aside for this

847
00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:51,440
Speaker 2: fun Belt Championship, he's gonna have a bowl of cereal

848
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:55,280
Speaker 2: and think about it. That's that's the time aside with Okay,

849
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:58,279
Speaker 2: because recruiting window opening, you're going to Florida. Do you

850
00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:02,480
Speaker 2: think he's spending time on this fun Belt Championship. Absolutely not.

851
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:06,760
Speaker 2: So I just don't know where Louisiana is at mentally

852
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:10,960
Speaker 2: from a preparation standpoint. You know, they're coach leading and

853
00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:16,560
Speaker 2: probably probably doing recruiting trips this week. So I think

854
00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:19,279
Speaker 2: app State gets its revenge like them.

855
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:22,560
Speaker 1: Anything under three, well, how do I How do I

856
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:25,560
Speaker 1: go around this without talking about the guy, the coach

857
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:27,839
Speaker 1: that has burned me so much. I don't even say

858
00:43:27,880 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 1: his name anymore.

859
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:30,839
Speaker 3: Scared money, don't make money.

860
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:33,399
Speaker 1: You know, I am not hedging my four to one

861
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:36,040
Speaker 1: app State future. If I didn't have any money on

862
00:43:36,120 --> 00:43:39,080
Speaker 1: this game, I would play app State minus three. I

863
00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:41,719
Speaker 1: make this game power rated app State minus four and

864
00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:44,560
Speaker 1: a half. And I think what people need to realize

865
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:48,319
Speaker 1: is when Stuck said that Louisiana is extremely lucky, that's

866
00:43:48,360 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 1: an understatement Sean Clark since he took over his head

867
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:55,719
Speaker 1: coach after Eli Drinkowitz won a conference championship with app State.

868
00:43:56,160 --> 00:44:00,439
Speaker 1: Well you know, Scott Saderfield was winning conference championships without State.

869
00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:03,279
Speaker 1: Sean Clark has been on all these stabs as the

870
00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:06,400
Speaker 1: offensive line coach. Now it's his chance. He didn't make

871
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:08,279
Speaker 1: it the game last year. The game didn't even play

872
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:10,960
Speaker 1: last year. So now is Sewn Clark's time to get

873
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 1: his team ready on a revenge spot, to go back

874
00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:15,719
Speaker 1: to the place where they were embarrassed. And I think

875
00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:17,680
Speaker 1: what people need to realize is that these two teams

876
00:44:17,719 --> 00:44:19,840
Speaker 1: have played each other twice in the last twelve months,

877
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:23,840
Speaker 1: and Louisiana is plus seven and turnovers, and you know

878
00:44:24,120 --> 00:44:26,880
Speaker 1: Chase Brice making some pretty bad decisions with his throwing it.

879
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 1: He doesn't do this in any other game. He does

880
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 1: not have turnover where he plays, he doesn't throw interceptions,

881
00:44:31,560 --> 00:44:35,320
Speaker 1: he doesn't make bad mistakes. But he did it against Louisiana.

882
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:35,680
Speaker 2: Earlier this year.

883
00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 1: But it's not only that game that Louisiana has been

884
00:44:39,080 --> 00:44:41,440
Speaker 1: lucky in. If you look at the last three games,

885
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:45,319
Speaker 1: especially where the coach that will not be named went

886
00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:48,920
Speaker 1: up against ULM just the other day they almost lost.

887
00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:52,120
Speaker 1: But the last three games, Louisiana is plus ten and

888
00:44:52,200 --> 00:44:55,400
Speaker 1: net turnovers plus ten. I mean, how lucky can this

889
00:44:55,520 --> 00:44:57,560
Speaker 1: team be? Well, I can tell you they are one

890
00:44:57,640 --> 00:45:00,839
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty third and second order win total. They are.

891
00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 1: They have been at the craps table a little bit

892
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:08,280
Speaker 1: too long, They've been served a little bit too many drinks,

893
00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:11,359
Speaker 1: and they're going to play until their bankroll is empty. Now,

894
00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:13,040
Speaker 1: when it comes down to this game, when you look

895
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:15,279
Speaker 1: in the matchups, it's just not going to be a

896
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:18,520
Speaker 1: problem for Apple Ashed State to move the ball. This

897
00:45:18,680 --> 00:45:20,840
Speaker 1: is a game where app State has everything that you

898
00:45:20,960 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 1: want in the advanced statistics. There's motivation there, there's revenge there.

899
00:45:25,640 --> 00:45:28,000
Speaker 1: There's a coach and a team that has been living

900
00:45:28,239 --> 00:45:31,439
Speaker 1: on turnovers. They've proved it to me. They just don't

901
00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:34,440
Speaker 1: need to turn the ball over. Now. Saying all that,

902
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:37,239
Speaker 1: there is a little something that scares me in this game,

903
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:40,800
Speaker 1: which is why I would not go above three and

904
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:43,320
Speaker 1: I would probably play this pretty light and I'm not

905
00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:46,200
Speaker 1: going to hedge my future. But if this happens, you

906
00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:48,080
Speaker 1: won't find me on social media for a couple hours.

907
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:50,360
Speaker 1: The coach that will not be named is on his

908
00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 1: way to Florida early signing day is I don't know,

909
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:56,640
Speaker 1: two and a half weeks from now. He is at

910
00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:59,759
Speaker 1: a craps table right now with one foot out the door,

911
00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:02,919
Speaker 1: a job, and Louisiana's top ten in the nation. Fourth

912
00:46:02,960 --> 00:46:05,040
Speaker 1: down attempts. He's had thirty three of them this year.

913
00:46:05,239 --> 00:46:09,239
Speaker 2: Is scared money, don't make money. Insert the scared money

914
00:46:09,320 --> 00:46:10,040
Speaker 2: don't make money.

915
00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:12,719
Speaker 1: You know, scared money don't make money. And this is

916
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:14,879
Speaker 1: a guy that told his quarterback on fourth and two

917
00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:17,319
Speaker 1: at the thirty yard line to turn around and run

918
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:18,960
Speaker 1: it into the end zone for a safety when he

919
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:20,799
Speaker 1: had one of the best stuff rates in the nation.

920
00:46:21,400 --> 00:46:24,719
Speaker 1: I can't understand this guy's line of thinking. I can't

921
00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:27,200
Speaker 1: understand how he coaches games. But what I do know

922
00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:30,400
Speaker 1: is that he goes for it on fourth downs more

923
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 1: than just about anybody over the last three years. It

924
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:35,040
Speaker 1: doesn't matter what happens in this game, because he's already

925
00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:37,680
Speaker 1: got a new job. That's what worries me about this

926
00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:41,759
Speaker 1: game is that he will do things so far out

927
00:46:42,200 --> 00:46:44,960
Speaker 1: of the coaching handbook that app State may win this

928
00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:48,720
Speaker 1: game by forty or there may be the Old Rabbit's

929
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:52,239
Speaker 1: foot plus ten turnovers in the last three games, plus

930
00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:54,759
Speaker 1: seven turnovers against Appstate the last two games. Some of

931
00:46:54,840 --> 00:46:58,320
Speaker 1: that's in that element. But if you're just statistically speaking,

932
00:46:58,760 --> 00:46:59,560
Speaker 1: app State is the.

933
00:46:59,560 --> 00:47:06,799
Speaker 2: Play the old river Boat. There's some riverboat casinos down

934
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:10,680
Speaker 2: in Louisiana. Right, Uh oh yeah, yeah, I like, I like.

935
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:15,720
Speaker 2: Uh the Nears Nears, Nears is app State. Don't say Nears.

936
00:47:15,800 --> 00:47:20,640
Speaker 2: It's West Virginia. That's Ears. Trust me, I've been yelled

937
00:47:20,680 --> 00:47:26,360
Speaker 2: at before by all of the great folks in Morgantown

938
00:47:26,640 --> 00:47:29,959
Speaker 2: years is what. Let's go Ears as West Virginia. Let's

939
00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:32,400
Speaker 2: go Nears as app State. All right, Let's move on

940
00:47:32,840 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 2: to another afternoon conference championship game. Let's talk about the

941
00:47:38,120 --> 00:47:44,279
Speaker 2: American Athletic Conference Championship between Houston and Cincinnati the AAC.

942
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:50,759
Speaker 7: I am a real Erican fight for the rights of

943
00:47:51,320 --> 00:47:58,120
Speaker 7: every man. I am a real Berican fight for what's right.

944
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:04,719
Speaker 2: Cincinnati will host this game in Nifferent Stadium. This game's

945
00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:07,480
Speaker 2: at four Eastern on ABC. Cincinnati's a ten and a

946
00:48:07,520 --> 00:48:11,720
Speaker 2: half point favorite over Unders down to fifty three. Shit's

947
00:48:11,760 --> 00:48:14,520
Speaker 2: opened at fifty six. It's taken a lot of under money.

948
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:17,200
Speaker 2: Houston's won and l in this title game. They won

949
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:19,640
Speaker 2: it in their only appearance back at twenty fifteen. Since

950
00:48:19,640 --> 00:48:23,120
Speaker 2: he's making their third straight appearance. They lost in twenty nineteen.

951
00:48:23,239 --> 00:48:26,239
Speaker 2: They won it last year. When I look at this game,

952
00:48:26,600 --> 00:48:28,279
Speaker 2: there's a couple of things that jump out to me.

953
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:30,320
Speaker 2: I mean, number one, Houston can't run the ball. Hundred

954
00:48:30,360 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 2: Nathan Rush success, right, So let's just throw that out.

955
00:48:33,160 --> 00:48:35,759
Speaker 2: It's all going to come down to Clayton Tune trying

956
00:48:35,800 --> 00:48:39,040
Speaker 2: to throw the ball. Well, good luck against Cincinnati. How

957
00:48:39,040 --> 00:48:43,160
Speaker 2: about Sauce Gardner probably the best corner in all of

958
00:48:43,239 --> 00:48:46,759
Speaker 2: college football, since he arguably was the best corner duo

959
00:48:46,960 --> 00:48:50,000
Speaker 2: in all of college football as well. Gardner who got robbed,

960
00:48:50,719 --> 00:48:53,239
Speaker 2: robbed of All American status. I was yelling about that

961
00:48:54,680 --> 00:48:59,560
Speaker 2: last year. Who got it over him? My boy? Sean Wade?

962
00:48:59,600 --> 00:49:02,680
Speaker 2: I think, yep on unbelievable. But Gardner here, do you

963
00:49:02,680 --> 00:49:04,400
Speaker 2: want to hear some stats? Has a lot of touchdown

964
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:08,320
Speaker 2: Omber one thousand snaps in his career, thousand snaps, not

965
00:49:08,400 --> 00:49:10,720
Speaker 2: a touchdown, He's not one hundred and twenty seven yards

966
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:14,040
Speaker 2: for the season, sixty or fewer yards in twenty two

967
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:18,799
Speaker 2: straight games, forty two percent career completion rate against zero

968
00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:22,560
Speaker 2: point two yards per attempt against. He's also really good

969
00:49:22,600 --> 00:49:25,120
Speaker 2: in the run, so you know, then you have Brian

970
00:49:25,239 --> 00:49:27,200
Speaker 2: on the other side. So here's the question you basically,

971
00:49:27,440 --> 00:49:30,959
Speaker 2: so all comes down to is ken Houston get Dell

972
00:49:31,160 --> 00:49:35,919
Speaker 2: their star receiver cooking. And when I dug into this game,

973
00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:39,320
Speaker 2: I was thinking, all right, are are they gonna take Gardner,

974
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:41,920
Speaker 2: the best corner of the nation and shadow Dell? And

975
00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:44,040
Speaker 2: I don't know, I don't think so. I mean, if

976
00:49:44,080 --> 00:49:48,040
Speaker 2: you look back at Gardner over the past couple of years,

977
00:49:48,080 --> 00:49:50,600
Speaker 2: he you know, it'll say he plays the left and

978
00:49:50,719 --> 00:49:54,160
Speaker 2: right side equally. He always plays the boundary side right

979
00:49:54,200 --> 00:49:57,960
Speaker 2: where if the ball is closest to the sidelines, the

980
00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:00,600
Speaker 2: short field and that's because he's on an island and

981
00:50:01,040 --> 00:50:02,719
Speaker 2: they just let him go and he takes away that

982
00:50:02,840 --> 00:50:06,520
Speaker 2: receiver and you can't throw there. And that's how they've

983
00:50:06,520 --> 00:50:10,360
Speaker 2: always played. Well. Dell will line up all over and

984
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:12,439
Speaker 2: some games they'll put him in the slot a lot,

985
00:50:12,560 --> 00:50:17,399
Speaker 2: and they've done that recently. Interestingly enough last week since

986
00:50:17,440 --> 00:50:23,480
Speaker 2: he put Gardner and Bryant in the slot for ten

987
00:50:23,560 --> 00:50:25,400
Speaker 2: and eight snaps, which are their career highs. I mean,

988
00:50:25,480 --> 00:50:28,640
Speaker 2: Garner never plays in the slot and Gardner's played twenty

989
00:50:29,120 --> 00:50:32,279
Speaker 2: slot snaps this year, twenty twenty two slot snaps. He's

990
00:50:32,320 --> 00:50:35,640
Speaker 2: allowed one catch for two yards. So I think that

991
00:50:35,760 --> 00:50:39,040
Speaker 2: since he was doing that knowing that, Okay, if Dell

992
00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:41,600
Speaker 2: is going off in the slot, let's get them some

993
00:50:41,719 --> 00:50:43,840
Speaker 2: game experience in the slot, and they're gonna move Gardner

994
00:50:44,360 --> 00:50:47,359
Speaker 2: or Bryant in the slot. So I just can't see

995
00:50:48,080 --> 00:50:52,879
Speaker 2: this Houston offense moving the ball. You have to throw

996
00:50:52,960 --> 00:50:55,400
Speaker 2: it like that's the only way they can move the

997
00:50:55,440 --> 00:50:57,480
Speaker 2: ball to start. They can't run the ball. You just

998
00:50:57,560 --> 00:51:02,360
Speaker 2: can't throw on Cincinnati with their elite secondary. Look, Houston's

999
00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:07,279
Speaker 2: numbers are good, their offensive numbers pretty good. But let's

1000
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:10,799
Speaker 2: let's take a look at who they've played. Think about

1001
00:51:10,840 --> 00:51:17,280
Speaker 2: these passing defenses. Texas Tech, Rice, Grambling, Navy, Tulsa, Tulane,

1002
00:51:17,840 --> 00:51:24,200
Speaker 2: East Carolina, SMU, South Florida, Temple, Memphis, Yukon. I mean,

1003
00:51:24,680 --> 00:51:27,520
Speaker 2: they haven't faced a good passing defense yet, so I

1004
00:51:27,640 --> 00:51:29,640
Speaker 2: think they're in for a rude awakening here. I think

1005
00:51:29,640 --> 00:51:32,600
Speaker 2: they struggle to get to seventeen. I do really like

1006
00:51:32,680 --> 00:51:35,480
Speaker 2: the Houston defense. They've done some nice things. I do

1007
00:51:35,640 --> 00:51:38,440
Speaker 2: think that this is one of Holgerson's best defensive units.

1008
00:51:39,200 --> 00:51:42,880
Speaker 2: I think that they can contain this since the offense,

1009
00:51:43,320 --> 00:51:45,200
Speaker 2: I really like the under. I played the under fifty four,

1010
00:51:45,880 --> 00:51:48,080
Speaker 2: and look, these two teams don't play fast either, so

1011
00:51:48,200 --> 00:51:50,400
Speaker 2: that works in your favor. I just think this Houston

1012
00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:52,120
Speaker 2: team is really going to struggle to move the ball.

1013
00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:55,160
Speaker 2: Their defense I think could keep them in it. I

1014
00:51:55,239 --> 00:51:57,160
Speaker 2: don't think since he needs style points Yere that's an

1015
00:51:57,160 --> 00:51:58,759
Speaker 2: interesting question, but I don't think they need to run

1016
00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:00,880
Speaker 2: this up or will, and I don't think they necessarily

1017
00:52:00,920 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 2: can just run it up against Houston's defense. So I

1018
00:52:03,280 --> 00:52:06,279
Speaker 2: like the under here, and I think that if I

1019
00:52:06,320 --> 00:52:08,640
Speaker 2: had to take a side, I make the line about right,

1020
00:52:08,840 --> 00:52:10,879
Speaker 2: I would put a gun to mat. I would take

1021
00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:13,399
Speaker 2: Sincy because I just don't see Houston sustaining any sort

1022
00:52:13,440 --> 00:52:17,200
Speaker 2: of offensive success because I do feel confident that since

1023
00:52:17,239 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 2: he has a plan for Dell, if he's going off

1024
00:52:20,120 --> 00:52:22,080
Speaker 2: with the slot, and that's pretty much the only way

1025
00:52:22,640 --> 00:52:24,960
Speaker 2: that I could see Houston moving the ball. One other thing,

1026
00:52:25,400 --> 00:52:27,480
Speaker 2: Houston is one of the best all around returners, if

1027
00:52:27,520 --> 00:52:31,960
Speaker 2: not the best returner in the nation. De Marcus Jones Well,

1028
00:52:32,719 --> 00:52:37,080
Speaker 2: Cincinnati one of the best kickoff and punt efficiency teams

1029
00:52:37,080 --> 00:52:38,840
Speaker 2: in the Nation. They don't let you get anything in

1030
00:52:38,920 --> 00:52:43,040
Speaker 2: that department, So there goes that as well, and that's

1031
00:52:43,040 --> 00:52:44,680
Speaker 2: the way that Houston can score in a flash. So

1032
00:52:44,760 --> 00:52:48,000
Speaker 2: I think that that I feel confident that now Marcus

1033
00:52:48,040 --> 00:52:49,320
Speaker 2: Zone is going to break one. But at least I

1034
00:52:49,320 --> 00:52:52,600
Speaker 2: have a really good coverage in kickoff, in punts. What

1035
00:52:52,680 --> 00:52:53,160
Speaker 2: do you see here?

1036
00:52:54,040 --> 00:52:55,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, as we've been talking about this, I

1037
00:52:57,000 --> 00:52:58,600
Speaker 1: wanted to take the under in this game. I wanted

1038
00:52:58,640 --> 00:53:01,560
Speaker 1: to look for an angle because I echo everything you

1039
00:53:01,680 --> 00:53:05,120
Speaker 1: say about the Cincinnati secondary completely shut down the SMU

1040
00:53:05,280 --> 00:53:08,239
Speaker 1: team Houston, I mean eighty fifth and rushing success rate

1041
00:53:08,280 --> 00:53:10,480
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirteenth in the line yards on offense,

1042
00:53:10,880 --> 00:53:13,000
Speaker 1: They're not going to run the ball at all. It's

1043
00:53:13,000 --> 00:53:14,799
Speaker 1: going to be the Clayton Tune show and he's going

1044
00:53:14,880 --> 00:53:17,560
Speaker 1: to go to his top receiver. And the problem is is,

1045
00:53:17,640 --> 00:53:19,480
Speaker 1: you know, we talk so much about Sas Gardner, but

1046
00:53:19,680 --> 00:53:23,080
Speaker 1: Kobe Bryant and Brian Cooker actually have higher coverage grades.

1047
00:53:23,400 --> 00:53:24,800
Speaker 1: It's a game that I power rate at ten and

1048
00:53:24,840 --> 00:53:27,759
Speaker 1: a half, so it's right on the number sp plus

1049
00:53:27,840 --> 00:53:29,400
Speaker 1: picks at twelve and a half. So if you follow that,

1050
00:53:29,560 --> 00:53:31,759
Speaker 1: then you would want to take some Cincinnati here. It's

1051
00:53:31,800 --> 00:53:34,239
Speaker 1: a total I also make at fifty three, so we're

1052
00:53:34,320 --> 00:53:36,080
Speaker 1: right on par with what we've got in the Marriot.

1053
00:53:36,120 --> 00:53:37,920
Speaker 1: So this is a really tough game. I do have

1054
00:53:38,040 --> 00:53:41,520
Speaker 1: a future, a very large Yes. I did in May

1055
00:53:41,680 --> 00:53:45,000
Speaker 1: lay sixteen hundred dollars to one one thousand. Cincinnati opened

1056
00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:47,680
Speaker 1: minus one sixty to win this conference, and I said

1057
00:53:47,840 --> 00:53:50,279
Speaker 1: flat out they will not be minus one sixty on

1058
00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:53,239
Speaker 1: the money line in the conference championship game. I will

1059
00:53:53,239 --> 00:53:54,759
Speaker 1: go ahead and lay that kind of money right now.

1060
00:53:54,880 --> 00:53:56,640
Speaker 1: So I'm not worried about hedging it. And I actually

1061
00:53:56,640 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 1: think Cincinnati probably more than likely will cover this game.

1062
00:54:00,280 --> 00:54:03,080
Speaker 1: They could shut Houston out, considering Houston's just a one

1063
00:54:03,120 --> 00:54:06,000
Speaker 1: trick pony with the throwing. Now, the defense, You're right,

1064
00:54:06,120 --> 00:54:08,759
Speaker 1: they are good in a lot of categories. Number one

1065
00:54:08,800 --> 00:54:10,800
Speaker 1: in pass rushing the nation. That's been a problem for

1066
00:54:10,880 --> 00:54:14,279
Speaker 1: Cincinnati's offensive line. They're eighty second and pass blocking. But

1067
00:54:14,360 --> 00:54:16,920
Speaker 1: there's a lot of other things that point to you know,

1068
00:54:17,000 --> 00:54:20,440
Speaker 1: Cincinnati having success here with Desmond Ritter first and second down,

1069
00:54:20,520 --> 00:54:22,520
Speaker 1: they were taking shots down the field, and I just

1070
00:54:22,560 --> 00:54:25,200
Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised to see that happen here. I'm with you,

1071
00:54:25,760 --> 00:54:27,440
Speaker 1: I think the best play now that I'm looking at

1072
00:54:27,480 --> 00:54:29,520
Speaker 1: the board, I think the best play here is there

1073
00:54:29,600 --> 00:54:31,600
Speaker 1: is a couple of twenty seven and a half's on

1074
00:54:31,719 --> 00:54:34,359
Speaker 1: the first half, and we talked about this. I think

1075
00:54:34,400 --> 00:54:36,759
Speaker 1: Cincinnati would be quick to make adjustments if Houston's able

1076
00:54:36,760 --> 00:54:39,200
Speaker 1: to find something with Clayton tune, and they'll shut it down.

1077
00:54:39,320 --> 00:54:41,959
Speaker 1: So I think the best bet because the number keeps

1078
00:54:42,000 --> 00:54:44,880
Speaker 1: going down fifty two and a half fifty three, I

1079
00:54:44,920 --> 00:54:46,960
Speaker 1: think under twenty seven and a half is the best

1080
00:54:47,040 --> 00:54:49,080
Speaker 1: value on the board and I'm probably gonna end up

1081
00:54:49,320 --> 00:54:50,080
Speaker 1: playing that right now.

1082
00:54:50,400 --> 00:54:55,839
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to the SEC Championship here.

1083
00:54:56,200 --> 00:55:01,200
Speaker 2: It just means why this game is at for Eastern

1084
00:55:01,280 --> 00:55:05,160
Speaker 2: on CBS between Alabama and Georgia. Georgia's six and a

1085
00:55:05,200 --> 00:55:07,279
Speaker 2: half point favored over under forty nine and a half.

1086
00:55:07,760 --> 00:55:10,960
Speaker 2: This game will be played in Mercedes Benz Stadium. By

1087
00:55:11,040 --> 00:55:17,280
Speaker 2: the way, if you're into total trends, the SEC Conference

1088
00:55:17,400 --> 00:55:20,399
Speaker 2: Championship game since two thousand and five, eleven and four

1089
00:55:20,480 --> 00:55:23,040
Speaker 2: to the over, get all these athletes on that fast

1090
00:55:23,160 --> 00:55:27,319
Speaker 2: track and tend to see a lot of fireworks. Alabama

1091
00:55:27,600 --> 00:55:29,680
Speaker 2: as a six and a half point dog, it looks

1092
00:55:29,760 --> 00:55:33,160
Speaker 2: weird because it is and we rarely see it. Alabama

1093
00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:35,560
Speaker 2: has will be an underdog for the first time in

1094
00:55:35,760 --> 00:55:38,880
Speaker 2: ninety three games. They've been favored in one hundred and

1095
00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:42,440
Speaker 2: sixty four of their past one hundred and sixty five games.

1096
00:55:42,640 --> 00:55:45,239
Speaker 2: Pretty amazing you think about it, considering that they are

1097
00:55:46,239 --> 00:55:49,239
Speaker 2: usually in the College fall playoff. Alabama has been an

1098
00:55:49,320 --> 00:55:53,040
Speaker 2: underdog five times since two thousand and eight under Nick Saban.

1099
00:55:53,320 --> 00:55:56,480
Speaker 2: They've won four of those five games. Twenty fifteen against

1100
00:55:56,520 --> 00:55:58,520
Speaker 2: Georgia plus one and a half they won by twenty

1101
00:55:58,560 --> 00:56:01,320
Speaker 2: eight two thousand and nine plus four, and alf against

1102
00:56:01,320 --> 00:56:04,600
Speaker 2: Florida they won by nineteen. Two thousand and eight plus ten.

1103
00:56:04,600 --> 00:56:07,200
Speaker 2: Against Florida they lost by eleven. Their lone loss two

1104
00:56:07,239 --> 00:56:09,000
Speaker 2: thousand and eight plus six and a half against Georgia

1105
00:56:09,040 --> 00:56:11,399
Speaker 2: they won by eleven two thousand and eight plus four.

1106
00:56:11,440 --> 00:56:14,279
Speaker 2: Against Clemson they won by twenty four. So you know,

1107
00:56:14,480 --> 00:56:18,440
Speaker 2: the easy thought process here is look Saban, especially if

1108
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:20,920
Speaker 2: you can get a seven here catching a touchdown with

1109
00:56:21,320 --> 00:56:23,960
Speaker 2: you know, all of Alabama's talent hard to pass up.

1110
00:56:24,520 --> 00:56:27,800
Speaker 2: I also will mention underdogs that failed to cover multiple

1111
00:56:27,880 --> 00:56:29,960
Speaker 2: games in a row two or more coming into a

1112
00:56:29,960 --> 00:56:34,160
Speaker 2: conference championship. Seventeen and four against the spread since two

1113
00:56:34,160 --> 00:56:36,600
Speaker 2: thousand and five, eighty one percent, covering by an average

1114
00:56:36,640 --> 00:56:41,080
Speaker 2: margin of eleven points per game. Conversely, teams that covered

1115
00:56:41,160 --> 00:56:43,880
Speaker 2: multiple games in a row coming into the conference championship,

1116
00:56:44,440 --> 00:56:47,799
Speaker 2: you know, Michigan, Kent State, Cincinnati, they've gone thirty two,

1117
00:56:47,880 --> 00:56:51,520
Speaker 2: forty four and two forty two percent. Just something to

1118
00:56:51,560 --> 00:56:53,680
Speaker 2: think about it. I don't think it's science, just you know,

1119
00:56:54,239 --> 00:56:57,920
Speaker 2: back to Bilow so high and market principles. When I

1120
00:56:58,000 --> 00:57:00,840
Speaker 2: look at this game, it's Alabama has been if I

1121
00:57:00,880 --> 00:57:03,200
Speaker 2: have removed priors, I make Georgia eight and a half

1122
00:57:03,320 --> 00:57:05,920
Speaker 2: point favor here, and we're at the point where you know,

1123
00:57:06,040 --> 00:57:08,279
Speaker 2: you can kind of say, all right, these teams are

1124
00:57:08,360 --> 00:57:11,440
Speaker 2: who they are. And Alabama's offensive line has been a disaster.

1125
00:57:12,000 --> 00:57:15,400
Speaker 2: Good luck against Georgia. Their coverage times been a disaster

1126
00:57:15,560 --> 00:57:18,680
Speaker 2: since of Bennett has been great. The one thing that

1127
00:57:19,280 --> 00:57:21,440
Speaker 2: I look at in this game is that Alabama's run

1128
00:57:21,560 --> 00:57:24,400
Speaker 2: defense outside of the game against florida's been elite. Elite.

1129
00:57:24,520 --> 00:57:26,680
Speaker 2: You cannot run on them, and we know you can't

1130
00:57:26,720 --> 00:57:30,600
Speaker 2: run on Georgia. George's putting up historically great defensive numbers.

1131
00:57:31,440 --> 00:57:34,320
Speaker 2: So you know, on this fast track. This total is

1132
00:57:34,360 --> 00:57:37,240
Speaker 2: coming down. I'm starting to think about the over I

1133
00:57:37,320 --> 00:57:40,640
Speaker 2: think both teams might come out throwing all day. Ken

1134
00:57:41,360 --> 00:57:45,000
Speaker 2: brycey On, good time to throw the ball is one question,

1135
00:57:45,400 --> 00:57:48,439
Speaker 2: Ken Stetson, Bennett, you know, throw in a closer game

1136
00:57:48,520 --> 00:57:51,560
Speaker 2: for four quarters and sustain this success. That's another question.

1137
00:57:52,440 --> 00:57:54,160
Speaker 2: But the more I dig into this game, I mean,

1138
00:57:54,200 --> 00:57:56,920
Speaker 2: this is Alabama between that barely escaped Florida barely escaped,

1139
00:57:56,960 --> 00:58:02,080
Speaker 2: Auburn barely escaped. LSU just lost this poverty results.

1140
00:58:02,360 --> 00:58:05,240
Speaker 8: All right, so everybody wants to beat us. We're gonna

1141
00:58:05,280 --> 00:58:07,919
Speaker 8: get everybody's best game. I don't know why people can't

1142
00:58:08,000 --> 00:58:10,760
Speaker 8: understand that. When I came here, everybody was happy to

1143
00:58:10,840 --> 00:58:12,840
Speaker 8: win a game, all right. Now we're not happy to

1144
00:58:12,920 --> 00:58:13,640
Speaker 8: win a game at all.

1145
00:58:14,800 --> 00:58:17,160
Speaker 2: I just keep thinking, maybe Georgia. I think Georgia just

1146
00:58:17,240 --> 00:58:20,440
Speaker 2: might blow the doors off of Alabama here motivation wise,

1147
00:58:20,720 --> 00:58:23,080
Speaker 2: all right? Maybe I mean Georgia, if they lose, they're

1148
00:58:23,720 --> 00:58:27,120
Speaker 2: they're still into the comfortable Clow presumably, so maybe do

1149
00:58:27,200 --> 00:58:29,400
Speaker 2: they hold some things back for the controle Claow and

1150
00:58:29,480 --> 00:58:31,600
Speaker 2: Alabama has to throw everything in the kitchen sink here.

1151
00:58:32,160 --> 00:58:34,200
Speaker 2: Maybe that's an angle, but it's hard to make a

1152
00:58:34,240 --> 00:58:37,320
Speaker 2: case for Alabama other than our Nick Stadan's catching you know,

1153
00:58:37,480 --> 00:58:39,400
Speaker 2: six and a half points. What are your thoughts here?

1154
00:58:40,200 --> 00:58:42,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think that's the only defense that people

1155
00:58:42,880 --> 00:58:44,880
Speaker 1: have when they say, well, you got to back Alabama

1156
00:58:44,880 --> 00:58:47,480
Speaker 1: here six and a half points. It's been a one hundred.

1157
00:58:47,680 --> 00:58:50,360
Speaker 1: He's been favored in every game except one in one

1158
00:58:50,440 --> 00:58:52,600
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty nine games since two thousand and nine,

1159
00:58:52,680 --> 00:58:54,560
Speaker 1: and that was against Georgia and they won the game

1160
00:58:54,640 --> 00:58:57,240
Speaker 1: thirty eight to ten, and YadA, YadA yah. I mean,

1161
00:58:57,280 --> 00:58:59,960
Speaker 1: it's just like stuff that isn't meaningful to this game.

1162
00:59:00,160 --> 00:59:02,880
Speaker 1: What is meaningful to this game is that Alabama's offensive

1163
00:59:02,960 --> 00:59:06,560
Speaker 1: line has been due to cost the Crimson Tider game,

1164
00:59:06,640 --> 00:59:07,800
Speaker 1: and it's going to come in this game.

1165
00:59:08,680 --> 00:59:11,360
Speaker 8: Nobody wants to win more than the players that play.

1166
00:59:11,680 --> 00:59:14,439
Speaker 8: For all, you self absorbed folks out there that can't

1167
00:59:14,520 --> 00:59:17,440
Speaker 8: look past your own self, have some gratitude.

1168
00:59:18,120 --> 00:59:23,800
Speaker 1: Auburn absolutely dominated the Alabama offensive line. Arkansas absolutely dominated

1169
00:59:24,040 --> 00:59:27,880
Speaker 1: the Alabama offensive line. Bryce Young has been running around.

1170
00:59:28,400 --> 00:59:30,360
Speaker 1: I called him the best dark player in the world

1171
00:59:30,440 --> 00:59:32,280
Speaker 1: last year because he just looks for the empty spot

1172
00:59:32,320 --> 00:59:34,400
Speaker 1: on the field and he throws it. Now, that doesn't

1173
00:59:34,880 --> 00:59:36,800
Speaker 1: mean to take any of his ability away. I mean,

1174
00:59:36,840 --> 00:59:38,720
Speaker 1: I saw him make some plays with his legs and

1175
00:59:38,760 --> 00:59:41,080
Speaker 1: maneuver around the pocket, and he's got a pump fake

1176
00:59:41,160 --> 00:59:44,480
Speaker 1: that really, you know, gets some defenders to move out

1177
00:59:44,520 --> 00:59:48,640
Speaker 1: of the way. So there's some talk about Bill O'Brien

1178
00:59:49,360 --> 00:59:51,720
Speaker 1: being out the door to Virginia Tech. There's some talk about,

1179
00:59:51,840 --> 00:59:55,360
Speaker 1: you know, Bill O'Brien's lack of creating explosive plays. But hey,

1180
00:59:55,480 --> 00:59:59,000
Speaker 1: let's look at it. Brian Robinson juniors, hurt Roydea Williams.

1181
00:59:58,640 --> 01:00:01,040
Speaker 2: Is out for the year. One scholarship back.

1182
01:00:01,200 --> 01:00:04,120
Speaker 1: No one scholarship running back is left on this offense.

1183
01:00:04,520 --> 01:00:07,560
Speaker 1: There's just it's a depleted offense and the offensive line.

1184
01:00:07,600 --> 01:00:11,280
Speaker 1: I'll say I'll say it again, Darien Dolcourt, Chris Owens,

1185
01:00:11,520 --> 01:00:15,520
Speaker 1: Damian George. These are some of the worst ranked rush

1186
01:00:15,760 --> 01:00:18,640
Speaker 1: and pass defenders on offensive lines in Power five.

1187
01:00:19,160 --> 01:00:21,000
Speaker 8: They run through our ass like shit through a ten

1188
01:00:21,040 --> 01:00:22,800
Speaker 8: horn man, and we could not stop them.

1189
01:00:23,400 --> 01:00:26,040
Speaker 1: And it's just not Alabama season. And I've seen that

1190
01:00:26,120 --> 01:00:28,000
Speaker 1: from a mile away weeks ago, when I think I

1191
01:00:28,080 --> 01:00:30,919
Speaker 1: told Brett on sources in September that Alabama's gonna lose

1192
01:00:31,360 --> 01:00:32,919
Speaker 1: after the Texas A and M I said, they're gonna

1193
01:00:32,920 --> 01:00:35,400
Speaker 1: lose again now here we are. They've almost lost a

1194
01:00:35,440 --> 01:00:38,160
Speaker 1: couple of games. But if you can give their offensive

1195
01:00:38,200 --> 01:00:40,760
Speaker 1: line troubles, you know, if you're not New Mexico State,

1196
01:00:40,840 --> 01:00:42,920
Speaker 1: you can give their offensive line troubles, you could beat them. Well,

1197
01:00:42,920 --> 01:00:46,840
Speaker 1: guess what Georgia eats offensive lines for breakfast. The speed

1198
01:00:47,000 --> 01:00:50,120
Speaker 1: on this team is so remarkable, and I think what

1199
01:00:50,200 --> 01:00:52,520
Speaker 1: else is amazing about this team is that no one

1200
01:00:52,680 --> 01:00:57,000
Speaker 1: player is the leader, like especially from a statistical perspective.

1201
01:00:57,240 --> 01:00:58,680
Speaker 1: And here's the thing, here's the thing that got me

1202
01:00:58,760 --> 01:01:00,680
Speaker 1: when I when I was looking this up. The Bulldogs

1203
01:01:00,720 --> 01:01:02,880
Speaker 1: have three defenders that rank in the top two hundred

1204
01:01:02,920 --> 01:01:06,120
Speaker 1: and pass rush productivity. Pass rush productivity is a new

1205
01:01:06,200 --> 01:01:10,160
Speaker 1: stat from PFF that kind of integrates everything sacks, hits, hurries.

1206
01:01:10,640 --> 01:01:12,600
Speaker 1: They have three players that rank in the top two hundred.

1207
01:01:13,200 --> 01:01:15,800
Speaker 1: They have four members of the secondary that rank two hundred,

1208
01:01:16,080 --> 01:01:18,720
Speaker 1: rank in the top two hundred individually and coverage grading,

1209
01:01:19,200 --> 01:01:22,600
Speaker 1: it's next man up. They're deep, they're fast. And what's

1210
01:01:22,680 --> 01:01:24,800
Speaker 1: the one thing just from the eyeball test, that's my

1211
01:01:24,880 --> 01:01:27,880
Speaker 1: favorite term for all you people that were ESPN from

1212
01:01:27,920 --> 01:01:32,640
Speaker 1: the eyeball test, you can't go east to west on

1213
01:01:32,800 --> 01:01:35,480
Speaker 1: the Georgia defense. They are too fast at the linebacker

1214
01:01:35,560 --> 01:01:37,720
Speaker 1: position for you to try to cut a corner. You

1215
01:01:37,840 --> 01:01:40,640
Speaker 1: can't go up the middle against Jordan Davis. He requires

1216
01:01:40,760 --> 01:01:43,440
Speaker 1: a double team every single time. So what is it

1217
01:01:43,520 --> 01:01:45,560
Speaker 1: that you have to do against the Georgia defense. Something

1218
01:01:45,640 --> 01:01:48,720
Speaker 1: that a couple teams have tried but they haven't been

1219
01:01:48,840 --> 01:01:51,880
Speaker 1: very successful, and that is thrown deep in between the hashes.

1220
01:01:53,080 --> 01:01:57,320
Speaker 1: I don't know how Alabama gets a couple of their receivers.

1221
01:01:57,440 --> 01:02:00,600
Speaker 1: Mechi is not looking like Mechi of last year, you

1222
01:02:00,640 --> 01:02:03,000
Speaker 1: know when he's not looking like anything that they've had

1223
01:02:03,040 --> 01:02:04,680
Speaker 1: in the past. I don't know how they get these

1224
01:02:04,720 --> 01:02:07,720
Speaker 1: guys deep over ten yards in between the hashes against

1225
01:02:08,120 --> 01:02:11,080
Speaker 1: this secondary. But that's the only way to attack this

1226
01:02:11,160 --> 01:02:13,440
Speaker 1: Georgia defense, and they just don't have it. So when

1227
01:02:13,440 --> 01:02:15,400
Speaker 1: you flip to the other side of the ball, Stets

1228
01:02:15,440 --> 01:02:17,640
Speaker 1: and Minute's numbers are great. I don't even know how

1229
01:02:17,680 --> 01:02:19,560
Speaker 1: to say this, Like, he's one of the best quarterbacks

1230
01:02:19,600 --> 01:02:23,320
Speaker 1: in all of FBS, and he said in his press conference,

1231
01:02:23,360 --> 01:02:25,360
Speaker 1: So when he made comments this Monday, he said, I'm

1232
01:02:25,480 --> 01:02:28,080
Speaker 1: just I'm more patient. I know when to throw the

1233
01:02:28,120 --> 01:02:30,600
Speaker 1: ball away. I know when to leave the pocket. I

1234
01:02:30,680 --> 01:02:32,440
Speaker 1: know when to stay in the pocket. Like he's just

1235
01:02:32,600 --> 01:02:35,400
Speaker 1: he's more comfortable. He's been at Georgia for so long

1236
01:02:35,520 --> 01:02:39,520
Speaker 1: now that you know, he's put up better numbers from

1237
01:02:39,560 --> 01:02:41,840
Speaker 1: a big time throws and a turnover worthy play perspective

1238
01:02:41,880 --> 01:02:42,760
Speaker 1: than J. C. Daniels.

1239
01:02:43,160 --> 01:02:44,760
Speaker 2: And that's the reason this five star JT.

1240
01:02:44,920 --> 01:02:49,160
Speaker 1: Daniels. That is, you know, basically grated the same as

1241
01:02:49,360 --> 01:02:51,600
Speaker 1: Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence. A couple of years ago.

1242
01:02:52,320 --> 01:02:55,600
Speaker 1: He's sitting behind Stetsan Bennett. If that gives you a clue,

1243
01:02:55,640 --> 01:02:57,280
Speaker 1: it's like it's not a joke anymore, Like the kid

1244
01:02:57,400 --> 01:03:00,640
Speaker 1: is really that good. So you know, for me, this

1245
01:03:00,760 --> 01:03:03,520
Speaker 1: is a game I power rate aed seven. I've got

1246
01:03:03,520 --> 01:03:05,400
Speaker 1: a Georgia plus two seventy five to win the sec

1247
01:03:05,520 --> 01:03:07,680
Speaker 1: in my back pocket. I think the over is the

1248
01:03:07,760 --> 01:03:10,200
Speaker 1: better play. And the reason the over is the better

1249
01:03:10,240 --> 01:03:12,200
Speaker 1: play is because what I just said, Alabama can't run

1250
01:03:12,240 --> 01:03:15,160
Speaker 1: the ball. Brian Robinson is beat up. There's no room

1251
01:03:15,240 --> 01:03:16,840
Speaker 1: for him to run in between the tackles with this

1252
01:03:16,920 --> 01:03:18,840
Speaker 1: offensive line, Trace Anders, you.

1253
01:03:18,960 --> 01:03:21,640
Speaker 2: Can't run against Alabama and George's runoff its hasn't been

1254
01:03:21,680 --> 01:03:22,120
Speaker 2: that great.

1255
01:03:22,400 --> 01:03:25,200
Speaker 1: You can't run against Alabama. Trace Anders couldn't run against Auburn,

1256
01:03:25,480 --> 01:03:28,439
Speaker 1: So what does that leave Alabama to do? It leaves

1257
01:03:28,520 --> 01:03:30,800
Speaker 1: Bryce Young to hit the open spots on the field,

1258
01:03:30,880 --> 01:03:32,360
Speaker 1: and there's not going to be that many of them,

1259
01:03:32,440 --> 01:03:34,600
Speaker 1: but there's going to be a lot of throwing, there's

1260
01:03:34,640 --> 01:03:36,520
Speaker 1: going to be a lot of up tempo. And I

1261
01:03:36,560 --> 01:03:39,880
Speaker 1: think if you look at what Bryce Young did last week,

1262
01:03:40,720 --> 01:03:43,120
Speaker 1: Kirby Smart said this in his presser on Monday, and

1263
01:03:43,200 --> 01:03:45,520
Speaker 1: that's when I wanted the over immediately. He said, if

1264
01:03:45,520 --> 01:03:48,480
Speaker 1: you watch what Bryce Young does now, his release point

1265
01:03:49,280 --> 01:03:53,120
Speaker 1: is super fast. So I went and dug into the numbers.

1266
01:03:53,160 --> 01:03:56,880
Speaker 1: A typical release point for most quarterbacks is two to

1267
01:03:56,960 --> 01:03:58,960
Speaker 1: two and a half seconds. If you going back and

1268
01:03:59,040 --> 01:04:01,840
Speaker 1: look at last week's game, one to one and a

1269
01:04:01,880 --> 01:04:04,480
Speaker 1: half seconds. You go and look at any clip, any

1270
01:04:04,560 --> 01:04:07,800
Speaker 1: play he makes one to one and a half seconds.

1271
01:04:08,240 --> 01:04:11,560
Speaker 1: We are back to Mac Jones, right, Like Mac Jones

1272
01:04:11,600 --> 01:04:13,600
Speaker 1: got rid of the ball so fast it didn't matter

1273
01:04:13,680 --> 01:04:15,480
Speaker 1: if you if the defense had to sack rate that

1274
01:04:15,560 --> 01:04:18,040
Speaker 1: was number one in the nation, you weren't gonna get there.

1275
01:04:18,480 --> 01:04:20,120
Speaker 1: So I like to over in this game because if

1276
01:04:20,160 --> 01:04:22,520
Speaker 1: that doesn't work, it's either gonna be picked off great

1277
01:04:22,520 --> 01:04:25,360
Speaker 1: field position for Georgia or it's gonna be an explosive

1278
01:04:25,400 --> 01:04:28,200
Speaker 1: play and the chains are gonna keep moving at chunk yardage.

1279
01:04:28,680 --> 01:04:30,760
Speaker 1: So I think the over is the play here. I

1280
01:04:30,840 --> 01:04:32,960
Speaker 1: don't want to take a side. If I had to,

1281
01:04:33,200 --> 01:04:36,040
Speaker 1: I take Georgia. Alabama's due for a bad one. This

1282
01:04:36,240 --> 01:04:38,200
Speaker 1: is it. I think Bill O'Brien's out the door, see it.

1283
01:04:38,280 --> 01:04:41,280
Speaker 1: He won't be in whatever you know, Outback Bowl, wherever

1284
01:04:41,320 --> 01:04:43,120
Speaker 1: the hell Alabama's gonna end up. But I think it's

1285
01:04:43,120 --> 01:04:44,760
Speaker 1: gonna be bad enough where Alabama's not gonna be in

1286
01:04:44,760 --> 01:04:46,600
Speaker 1: the cultural role playoff. But over is my best bet.

1287
01:04:47,200 --> 01:04:51,480
Speaker 2: Look, these are two coaches who are extremely familiar with

1288
01:04:51,640 --> 01:04:56,520
Speaker 2: each other's defensive schemes right and know how to attack them.

1289
01:04:56,760 --> 01:04:59,560
Speaker 2: You're on a fast track. We've seen these SEC Championship

1290
01:04:59,560 --> 01:05:03,040
Speaker 2: games consistently go over, and I think both teams are

1291
01:05:03,080 --> 01:05:06,040
Speaker 2: gonna be throwing a lot. All right, Let's move on

1292
01:05:06,200 --> 01:05:11,320
Speaker 2: to the ACC Championship between two unlikely contenders, wake Forest

1293
01:05:11,440 --> 01:05:12,520
Speaker 2: and Pittsburg.

1294
01:05:13,120 --> 01:05:16,520
Speaker 6: The ACC more than just Clemson.

1295
01:05:17,280 --> 01:05:21,080
Speaker 2: Pitt is a three point favorite over under seventy one.

1296
01:05:21,800 --> 01:05:25,360
Speaker 2: Wake Forest is one and oh in the ACC title game. Historically,

1297
01:05:25,360 --> 01:05:27,480
Speaker 2: they beat Georgia Tech nine to six in two thousand

1298
01:05:27,480 --> 01:05:31,320
Speaker 2: and six. The MVP was their kicker Sam Swank, who

1299
01:05:31,400 --> 01:05:33,240
Speaker 2: made a thirty three to twenty two and nineteen yard

1300
01:05:33,280 --> 01:05:36,160
Speaker 2: field goal. Georgia Tech's quarterback in that game and a loss,

1301
01:05:36,280 --> 01:05:39,200
Speaker 2: Reggie Ball was nine of twenty nine for one hundred

1302
01:05:39,200 --> 01:05:41,640
Speaker 2: and twenty nine yards. Calvin Johnson, by the way, had

1303
01:05:41,680 --> 01:05:44,880
Speaker 2: eight catches for one hundred and seventeen yards. Yeah, one

1304
01:05:44,960 --> 01:05:47,280
Speaker 2: hundred and seventeen to one hundred and twenty nine yards. Poor,

1305
01:05:47,600 --> 01:05:51,400
Speaker 2: poor Megatron just never could get on a great team.

1306
01:05:52,000 --> 01:05:54,800
Speaker 2: Wake also won a title in nineteen seventy pitts oh

1307
01:05:54,880 --> 01:05:56,520
Speaker 2: and one in the ACC titles since coming over in

1308
01:05:56,560 --> 01:05:59,200
Speaker 2: twenty thirteen. They got drilled by Clemson in twenty eighteen.

1309
01:05:59,680 --> 01:06:01,160
Speaker 2: All Right, I got a couple I gooes for this game.

1310
01:06:01,200 --> 01:06:03,400
Speaker 2: I like Wake Forest plus three. There's a couple advantages

1311
01:06:03,480 --> 01:06:09,280
Speaker 2: for Wake Forest. First, Pittsburgh's defense they play are extremely aggressive, right,

1312
01:06:09,280 --> 01:06:11,240
Speaker 2: and they play a lot of guys in the box.

1313
01:06:12,000 --> 01:06:15,320
Speaker 2: They play man a lot of pressmen or quarters quarters

1314
01:06:15,400 --> 01:06:18,000
Speaker 2: coverage on the outside. They leave their corners on islands

1315
01:06:18,400 --> 01:06:22,000
Speaker 2: and they you know, are shooting gaps and getting They

1316
01:06:22,120 --> 01:06:24,360
Speaker 2: create a lot of Havoc tackles for loss and they've

1317
01:06:24,360 --> 01:06:25,560
Speaker 2: a lot of guys in the box, so it's really

1318
01:06:25,560 --> 01:06:28,440
Speaker 2: hard to run against them. Hence their elite. You know,

1319
01:06:28,560 --> 01:06:32,360
Speaker 2: HAVOC numbers run defense numbers across the board, but I

1320
01:06:32,480 --> 01:06:35,520
Speaker 2: think they're really vulnerable in the secondary and it's not

1321
01:06:35,640 --> 01:06:39,560
Speaker 2: being accounted for in the market. Number One, they have

1322
01:06:40,440 --> 01:06:44,000
Speaker 2: Eric Hallett, who's they're starting free safety, is in the

1323
01:06:44,040 --> 01:06:47,400
Speaker 2: slot almost every play guarding the slot receiver. He's been

1324
01:06:47,880 --> 01:06:50,880
Speaker 2: lined up in the slot three hundred and forty two

1325
01:06:50,960 --> 01:06:54,240
Speaker 2: times this year. Third most snaps in the country. One

1326
01:06:54,320 --> 01:06:56,920
Speaker 2: hundred and seventy five corners have taken at least seventy

1327
01:06:57,080 --> 01:07:00,440
Speaker 2: five snaps in the slot this year. This is when

1328
01:07:00,480 --> 01:07:03,720
Speaker 2: they're targeted. I should say only eight have allowed more

1329
01:07:03,760 --> 01:07:08,360
Speaker 2: than two yards per snap. He's one of them. He's

1330
01:07:08,400 --> 01:07:12,160
Speaker 2: allowed fifty three catches p six hundred and ninety six

1331
01:07:12,320 --> 01:07:16,400
Speaker 2: yards in the slot, both highest in the nation, four touchdowns,

1332
01:07:16,880 --> 01:07:20,840
Speaker 2: one interception, one hundred and three quarterback grating allowed, and

1333
01:07:21,040 --> 01:07:24,160
Speaker 2: against many bad passing offenses that they faced. By the way,

1334
01:07:24,200 --> 01:07:27,480
Speaker 2: wake Forest has a guy named Roverson. He might have

1335
01:07:27,520 --> 01:07:30,520
Speaker 2: heard of him. He had over a thousand yards this year.

1336
01:07:31,080 --> 01:07:32,840
Speaker 2: He lined up in the slot four hundred and sixty

1337
01:07:32,880 --> 01:07:35,560
Speaker 2: seven of five hundred and eighty eight snaps this year.

1338
01:07:36,240 --> 01:07:39,560
Speaker 2: Also another guy at Perry, another one thousand yard receiver.

1339
01:07:39,640 --> 01:07:42,440
Speaker 2: He's six'. Five these pit corners are, small and this

1340
01:07:42,560 --> 01:07:46,240
Speaker 2: is a pit defensive backfield that lost three. Pros ALTHOUGH

1341
01:07:46,240 --> 01:07:48,440
Speaker 2: i don't know how power sports on AN nfl roster right,

1342
01:07:48,480 --> 01:07:50,960
Speaker 2: now but you know a cornerback who had the lowest

1343
01:07:51,000 --> 01:07:54,480
Speaker 2: completion percentage allowed last, year and another you know their

1344
01:07:54,560 --> 01:07:57,680
Speaker 2: star safety who did so much for this. Defense opponents

1345
01:07:57,720 --> 01:07:59,720
Speaker 2: are only four of twenty one on four down against

1346
01:08:00,040 --> 01:08:03,200
Speaker 2: by the. Way that leads the. Nation and WHEN i

1347
01:08:03,320 --> 01:08:07,280
Speaker 2: look at what they've done against really good passing. Offenses,

1348
01:08:07,360 --> 01:08:11,439
Speaker 2: here let's See Western michigan good passing. Offense it's a max. School,

1349
01:08:11,680 --> 01:08:13,480
Speaker 2: yeah they lost at home forty four to forty One.

1350
01:08:14,120 --> 01:08:16,639
Speaker 2: Tennessee they give up thirty four. Points they probably would

1351
01:08:16,640 --> 01:08:18,800
Speaker 2: have lost that game Of Hendon hooker. Starts Joe milton

1352
01:08:18,840 --> 01:08:21,120
Speaker 2: started the first quarter and a half before getting. Benched all,

1353
01:08:21,160 --> 01:08:24,360
Speaker 2: right they Played New, Hampshire, UMass Georgia, TECH Va, Tech.

1354
01:08:24,479 --> 01:08:27,280
Speaker 2: Clemson none of those teams could. Throw how About miami

1355
01:08:27,560 --> 01:08:30,080
Speaker 2: they could? Throw now That vandykes and there, well they

1356
01:08:30,120 --> 01:08:32,760
Speaker 2: lost thirty eight to thirty. Four all, right they played By.

1357
01:08:32,960 --> 01:08:35,160
Speaker 2: Duke duke threw all over them in the first Half

1358
01:08:35,200 --> 01:08:37,960
Speaker 2: homeburg before he got. Hurt duke put up thirty on.

1359
01:08:38,040 --> 01:08:40,920
Speaker 2: Them North, carolina all, right they won thirty to twenty

1360
01:08:40,960 --> 01:08:42,920
Speaker 2: three in. Overtime that was in. Weather there's a reason

1361
01:08:42,960 --> 01:08:45,120
Speaker 2: that they only scored twenty three in regulation Against North

1362
01:08:45,120 --> 01:08:48,400
Speaker 2: carolina's defense. Too and then they Played virginia really good passing. Offense,

1363
01:08:48,400 --> 01:08:50,679
Speaker 2: Okay virginia put up thirty. Eight and then they closed

1364
01:08:50,720 --> 01:08:53,120
Speaker 2: hear With syracuse who can't throw the ball. Either so

1365
01:08:53,240 --> 01:08:56,720
Speaker 2: they've Placed they faced so many offenses that just run

1366
01:08:56,800 --> 01:08:58,519
Speaker 2: the ball and can't throw, it and that's perfect for their.

1367
01:08:58,560 --> 01:09:02,639
Speaker 2: Defense anytime they fin it's the, competent explosive passing, offense

1368
01:09:03,200 --> 01:09:05,679
Speaker 2: they've gotten. TORCHED i think they get torched here. Again

1369
01:09:06,600 --> 01:09:09,160
Speaker 2: Picket addison or. Excellent they're gonna put up points as.

1370
01:09:09,160 --> 01:09:11,040
Speaker 2: Well BUT i think it's a good match For Wake

1371
01:09:11,240 --> 01:09:15,040
Speaker 2: wake dreadful run, defense, well pitt can't run. It not

1372
01:09:15,160 --> 01:09:17,120
Speaker 2: a good pass, defense but they're a little better against the.

1373
01:09:17,200 --> 01:09:22,719
Speaker 2: Pass Wake forest can't really run the. Ball pit elite run, defense,

1374
01:09:22,920 --> 01:09:25,439
Speaker 2: well who Cares wake wants to, throw and they're gonna

1375
01:09:25,479 --> 01:09:27,519
Speaker 2: throw all. Day the only THING i worry about is

1376
01:09:27,560 --> 01:09:29,639
Speaker 2: this mesh point and how much pressure pit can. Get

1377
01:09:29,800 --> 01:09:33,519
Speaker 2: you Saw clemson cause some problems For Wake forest in that.

1378
01:09:33,640 --> 01:09:37,120
Speaker 2: Aspect BUT i Think Sam hartman and company cook. HERE

1379
01:09:37,360 --> 01:09:39,360
Speaker 2: i think this game is a true coin flip and

1380
01:09:39,479 --> 01:09:43,559
Speaker 2: this pit secondary is gonna get. Exploited hallett is gonna

1381
01:09:43,600 --> 01:09:45,840
Speaker 2: get cooked cooked all.

1382
01:09:45,960 --> 01:09:49,679
Speaker 1: Day here's the. Deal i've broken this down from every

1383
01:09:49,760 --> 01:09:51,840
Speaker 1: angle AND i come to the same conclusion THAT i

1384
01:09:51,880 --> 01:09:53,920
Speaker 1: think this game goes to. Overtime LIKE i would actually

1385
01:09:54,000 --> 01:09:57,479
Speaker 1: hit an overtime prop on this. Game there are too

1386
01:09:57,520 --> 01:10:01,160
Speaker 1: many advantages for both. Offenses wake's defense has had troubles all.

1387
01:10:01,240 --> 01:10:04,960
Speaker 1: Season just to give you an, Example pitt eighth in

1388
01:10:05,040 --> 01:10:08,160
Speaker 1: offensive finishing, Drives wake fifth in offensive finishing. Drives you

1389
01:10:08,200 --> 01:10:10,719
Speaker 1: know what the defenses are fifty six and ninety. Seven,

1390
01:10:11,200 --> 01:10:13,439
Speaker 1: like if they get past the forty yard, line there's

1391
01:10:13,520 --> 01:10:15,920
Speaker 1: six points going up on the. Board both teams are

1392
01:10:15,960 --> 01:10:18,600
Speaker 1: top twenty in the middle. Eight both coaches and Our

1393
01:10:18,640 --> 01:10:20,640
Speaker 1: noozy and, clause and they know how to manage the.

1394
01:10:20,720 --> 01:10:23,640
Speaker 1: Clock you, know these special teams are thirty six to

1395
01:10:23,760 --> 01:10:27,639
Speaker 1: Nineteenth pit's one hundred and fifteenth in rush, Explosiveness wakes

1396
01:10:27,640 --> 01:10:29,800
Speaker 1: one hundred and, eleventh and defending rush explosive is, like

1397
01:10:29,840 --> 01:10:32,000
Speaker 1: even where they're, bad they match. UP i think the

1398
01:10:32,080 --> 01:10:35,120
Speaker 1: one that stands out is is in passing, Downs pitt

1399
01:10:35,160 --> 01:10:37,479
Speaker 1: has a very high rank and sack rate and wake

1400
01:10:37,520 --> 01:10:39,519
Speaker 1: force is one hundred and twenty second and Defending, hartman

1401
01:10:39,600 --> 01:10:41,320
Speaker 1: but a lot of that could be him trying to

1402
01:10:41,439 --> 01:10:43,559
Speaker 1: extend the, plays taking off from the pocket and trying

1403
01:10:43,600 --> 01:10:46,280
Speaker 1: to do things in third and fourth down when he has.

1404
01:10:46,360 --> 01:10:49,320
Speaker 2: To this is. Power it also played a lot of

1405
01:10:49,400 --> 01:10:51,479
Speaker 2: bad passing offenses trying to throw the third and.

1406
01:10:51,560 --> 01:10:54,000
Speaker 1: Long, yeah that's true. TOO i mean that's a good

1407
01:10:54,040 --> 01:10:56,200
Speaker 1: way to beef up that. Number it's the. GAME i

1408
01:10:56,280 --> 01:10:58,000
Speaker 1: power rate at minus three and a half For, pitt

1409
01:10:58,160 --> 01:10:59,880
Speaker 1: SO i don't see a whole bunch of value in

1410
01:11:00,120 --> 01:11:02,640
Speaker 1: number that's three on the. Board it has flickered down

1411
01:11:02,680 --> 01:11:04,880
Speaker 1: to two and a. Half total sins is seventy one

1412
01:11:04,920 --> 01:11:06,479
Speaker 1: in the. Market it's a number THAT i have at.

1413
01:11:06,560 --> 01:11:10,519
Speaker 1: Seventy but considering that these two teams dominate on offense

1414
01:11:10,560 --> 01:11:14,200
Speaker 1: and finishing drives against two defenses that don't dominate in

1415
01:11:14,240 --> 01:11:17,920
Speaker 1: finishing drives and plays per. Minute these two teams' is

1416
01:11:18,000 --> 01:11:20,280
Speaker 1: pace is four and. NINETEEN i don't know how you

1417
01:11:20,320 --> 01:11:22,320
Speaker 1: don't play an over AND i think this game is

1418
01:11:22,400 --> 01:11:25,439
Speaker 1: going to, overtime so you, KNOW i guess it would

1419
01:11:25,439 --> 01:11:27,320
Speaker 1: be A Wake forest play for, Me BUT i think

1420
01:11:27,360 --> 01:11:30,400
Speaker 1: it's a number you can get live better at seven or. Ten,

1421
01:11:30,760 --> 01:11:32,320
Speaker 1: now let's talk about the other. Thing if you happen

1422
01:11:32,360 --> 01:11:35,640
Speaker 1: to have a future On, wake there's lots of opportunities

1423
01:11:35,760 --> 01:11:37,880
Speaker 1: up to about six, five six weeks ago to get

1424
01:11:37,880 --> 01:11:41,280
Speaker 1: a future On. WAKE i have officially bought half my

1425
01:11:41,400 --> 01:11:44,000
Speaker 1: ticket out ON. PITT i truly believe this could come

1426
01:11:44,040 --> 01:11:46,320
Speaker 1: down to last, possession AND i think it's going to

1427
01:11:46,360 --> 01:11:48,320
Speaker 1: be a nail. BIDER i don't think anybody has a

1428
01:11:48,360 --> 01:11:50,160
Speaker 1: strong advantage over the. Other so if you have a

1429
01:11:50,200 --> 01:11:53,120
Speaker 1: futures ticket on, THIS i would suggest buying. Out that's

1430
01:11:53,160 --> 01:11:53,759
Speaker 1: How i'm playing.

1431
01:11:53,800 --> 01:11:59,120
Speaker 2: This all, right let's finish things up here with the final.

1432
01:12:00,120 --> 01:12:01,920
Speaker 2: Nine he got one to. Go let's talk about The

1433
01:12:02,040 --> 01:12:06,720
Speaker 2: Big Ten conference championship Between michigan And. IOWA i don't

1434
01:12:06,720 --> 01:12:08,000
Speaker 2: think anyone predicted.

1435
01:12:07,680 --> 01:12:13,400
Speaker 1: That don't, gamble don't associate with, gamblers.

1436
01:12:14,520 --> 01:12:15,360
Speaker 2: Avoid it like the.

1437
01:12:15,920 --> 01:12:19,879
Speaker 6: Plague let's check in with Bow Dog, Jim.

1438
01:12:22,360 --> 01:12:23,800
Speaker 2: Michigan is a ten and a half point TO fa

1439
01:12:24,120 --> 01:12:26,200
Speaker 2: under forty three and a. Half this game we played

1440
01:12:26,240 --> 01:12:30,360
Speaker 2: In indianapolis eight pm On. Fox by The, way totals

1441
01:12:30,720 --> 01:12:33,599
Speaker 2: that are under forty six in conference championships since two

1442
01:12:33,640 --> 01:12:37,120
Speaker 2: thousand and, five the over is gone eight and. One

1443
01:12:38,120 --> 01:12:40,160
Speaker 2: michigan's first ever, appearance by The way in The Big

1444
01:12:40,240 --> 01:12:42,719
Speaker 2: ten Title, game which has been held since twenty, ELEVEN

1445
01:12:42,760 --> 01:12:46,040
Speaker 2: i was zero to. One they lost in twenty fifteen

1446
01:12:46,840 --> 01:12:49,880
Speaker 2: sixteen to thirteen To Michigan. State The hawkeys will look

1447
01:12:49,920 --> 01:12:52,040
Speaker 2: to become the first ever team from The west to

1448
01:12:52,160 --> 01:12:55,160
Speaker 2: win The Big Ten conference championship. Game The east is

1449
01:12:55,200 --> 01:12:58,639
Speaker 2: seven to. Tho since the divisions were, Realigned Ohio state

1450
01:12:58,760 --> 01:13:01,160
Speaker 2: won Five Penn, state one In Michigan state the Other

1451
01:13:01,720 --> 01:13:05,479
Speaker 2: Michigan better's Best friend Bow Dog jim ten and two

1452
01:13:05,520 --> 01:13:06,400
Speaker 2: against the spread this.

1453
01:13:06,520 --> 01:13:10,559
Speaker 6: Year Bodog jim has it under is there a.

1454
01:13:10,600 --> 01:13:15,360
Speaker 2: Letdown after the biggest winning forever for that? PROGRAM i don't.

1455
01:13:15,360 --> 01:13:16,479
Speaker 2: KNOW i, mean you win this, game you go to the.

1456
01:13:16,600 --> 01:13:19,599
Speaker 2: Championship but these are still college, kids so maybe they're

1457
01:13:19,600 --> 01:13:22,200
Speaker 2: a little. Flat but WHEN i look at this, game

1458
01:13:22,840 --> 01:13:24,200
Speaker 2: what do we say all. YEAR i said this on

1459
01:13:24,240 --> 01:13:26,600
Speaker 2: our podcast Last sunday on our recap, episode and we

1460
01:13:26,640 --> 01:13:28,840
Speaker 2: looked ahead to some of these. Games pretty simple handicapped for.

1461
01:13:28,920 --> 01:13:32,000
Speaker 2: Me iowa can only. SCORE i was offensive dreadfull one

1462
01:13:32,040 --> 01:13:35,320
Speaker 2: hundred and eleven in success for eight hie hundred outside

1463
01:13:35,320 --> 01:13:40,360
Speaker 2: to help one hundred everything, poverty offense. Impoverished they can't

1464
01:13:40,360 --> 01:13:42,439
Speaker 2: move the. Ball the only way they scor is on special,

1465
01:13:42,520 --> 01:13:51,240
Speaker 2: teams field position and Turnovers michigan, elite special, teams elite

1466
01:13:51,240 --> 01:13:53,800
Speaker 2: and field, position and they don't turn it. Over hol

1467
01:13:53,960 --> 01:13:56,040
Speaker 2: Is iowa going to. SCORE i can't run the, ball

1468
01:13:56,720 --> 01:13:58,960
Speaker 2: they can't pass. Protect they're gonna be in third and.

1469
01:13:59,040 --> 01:14:02,280
Speaker 2: Long good luck going against two first rounders coming after the,

1470
01:14:02,360 --> 01:14:05,760
Speaker 2: quarterback whatever quarterback they have and, there whether it's it

1471
01:14:05,880 --> 01:14:09,080
Speaker 2: doesn't Matter petris Or. Padilla they both. Stink they have

1472
01:14:09,200 --> 01:14:11,840
Speaker 2: no weapons on the. Outside the Challenges michigan, secutor which

1473
01:14:11,880 --> 01:14:14,360
Speaker 2: passed the test last week with flying. COLORS i don't

1474
01:14:14,400 --> 01:14:19,120
Speaker 2: Know iowa's. Course there's no recipe for voodoo. Here on

1475
01:14:19,160 --> 01:14:21,360
Speaker 2: the other, side team totals here are. Interesting Like, IOWA

1476
01:14:21,479 --> 01:14:23,519
Speaker 2: i don't know how they get to set, seventeen how

1477
01:14:23,560 --> 01:14:25,800
Speaker 2: they get in the. Seventeen. Michigan by the, way their

1478
01:14:25,880 --> 01:14:28,720
Speaker 2: team total is twenty. SEVEN i always held thirty four

1479
01:14:28,800 --> 01:14:31,800
Speaker 2: straight opponents to twenty seven points or, less which is.

1480
01:14:31,880 --> 01:14:35,799
Speaker 2: Interesting both are great, defenses But michigan's inn above average

1481
01:14:35,840 --> 01:14:43,160
Speaker 2: offense In iowa is an absolutely disgusting, offense and there's

1482
01:14:43,280 --> 01:14:46,360
Speaker 2: just no avenue for points here For. Iowa maybe the

1483
01:14:46,439 --> 01:14:48,240
Speaker 2: voodoo comes and all of a Sudden michigan decides to

1484
01:14:48,280 --> 01:14:51,599
Speaker 2: turn it, over play bad on special. Teams but this Isn't,

1485
01:14:51,640 --> 01:14:54,240
Speaker 2: nebraska and if you look at some of These iowa results,

1486
01:14:54,320 --> 01:14:58,479
Speaker 2: lately this is A this team is made of made of.

1487
01:14:58,560 --> 01:15:02,840
Speaker 2: HORSESHOES i think That michigan should cover. This i'm a

1488
01:15:02,880 --> 01:15:05,080
Speaker 2: little worried about to let. DOWN i think the number

1489
01:15:05,240 --> 01:15:07,160
Speaker 2: there's not a ton of value in the number. Either

1490
01:15:07,479 --> 01:15:10,280
Speaker 2: i'm really tempted by the. Under but LIKE i said,

1491
01:15:10,280 --> 01:15:17,360
Speaker 2: before unders less than forty five have gone one and

1492
01:15:17,520 --> 01:15:21,080
Speaker 2: eight when they're under forty five a conference title game

1493
01:15:21,120 --> 01:15:24,360
Speaker 2: since two thousand and, five although the one that did

1494
01:15:24,439 --> 01:15:28,280
Speaker 2: go Under Iowa Michigan state sixteen. Thirteen SO i just

1495
01:15:28,320 --> 01:15:30,160
Speaker 2: don't see How iowa can put up. POINTS i don't

1496
01:15:30,160 --> 01:15:32,040
Speaker 2: they could easily get shut. OUT i don't know how

1497
01:15:32,080 --> 01:15:33,519
Speaker 2: they're going to. SCORE i keep trying to think of

1498
01:15:33,640 --> 01:15:35,160
Speaker 2: lays AND i can't come up with. Any what are

1499
01:15:35,160 --> 01:15:37,080
Speaker 2: your thoughts, HERE i.

1500
01:15:37,120 --> 01:15:39,080
Speaker 1: Think, YEAH i think another question is how Does iowa

1501
01:15:39,120 --> 01:15:41,080
Speaker 1: score and how does this game go over the? Total

1502
01:15:41,120 --> 01:15:43,439
Speaker 1: so from a projection, Standpoint i'm at eleven and a,

1503
01:15:43,479 --> 01:15:46,960
Speaker 1: half so there's no value. There total wise forty one

1504
01:15:47,040 --> 01:15:48,720
Speaker 1: and a. Half so if you want to say there's

1505
01:15:48,800 --> 01:15:51,880
Speaker 1: value in under forty, three let me, say hold on

1506
01:15:52,120 --> 01:15:57,360
Speaker 1: just a. Second Because, iowa you, know known for defense

1507
01:15:57,439 --> 01:16:00,800
Speaker 1: and special teams, touchdowns that's to be hard to pull

1508
01:16:00,920 --> 01:16:04,040
Speaker 1: off Against. Michigan michigan is number one in the nation

1509
01:16:04,240 --> 01:16:06,360
Speaker 1: and have it. Allowed we talked about that Against Ohio.

1510
01:16:06,479 --> 01:16:09,240
Speaker 1: State they don't fumble the, ball they don't allow teams

1511
01:16:09,280 --> 01:16:11,800
Speaker 1: to play in their. Backfield they don't throw interceptions because

1512
01:16:11,800 --> 01:16:16,240
Speaker 1: they really. Don't, yeah they just don't make mistakes. Whatsoever

1513
01:16:17,080 --> 01:16:19,799
Speaker 1: and maybe you can return a punt or a. Kickoff

1514
01:16:20,120 --> 01:16:23,840
Speaker 1: michigan is number two in the nation and special teams sp.

1515
01:16:23,920 --> 01:16:26,479
Speaker 1: Plus so there's just not a lot of room for

1516
01:16:26,560 --> 01:16:30,200
Speaker 1: What iowa does to get points up on the board Against.

1517
01:16:30,240 --> 01:16:33,000
Speaker 1: Michigan and then you go ahead and, ask, well you,

1518
01:16:33,040 --> 01:16:35,320
Speaker 1: KNOW i should easily Take. MICHIGAN i should take the. Under,

1519
01:16:35,439 --> 01:16:38,040
Speaker 1: well let me hold you, Back. Specier peatrice has been,

1520
01:16:38,160 --> 01:16:41,000
Speaker 1: terrible he's been, hurt he's been. Benched he's going to

1521
01:16:41,040 --> 01:16:43,720
Speaker 1: be playing in this. Game but this, OFFENSE i mean

1522
01:16:43,760 --> 01:16:48,600
Speaker 1: they're primed to Have michigan score multiple defensive. Tds if

1523
01:16:48,640 --> 01:16:51,720
Speaker 1: you can find a prop on defensive tds over one

1524
01:16:51,800 --> 01:16:54,200
Speaker 1: and a half or like huge, JUICE i take. It

1525
01:16:54,760 --> 01:16:58,160
Speaker 1: iowa one hundred and thirteenth and havoc Allowed michigan is

1526
01:16:58,320 --> 01:17:01,200
Speaker 1: just you. KNOW i mean they pounds on that all.

1527
01:17:01,320 --> 01:17:03,120
Speaker 1: Day they might not even be able to move the

1528
01:17:03,160 --> 01:17:05,640
Speaker 1: ball after the handoff occurs two yards behind the line of.

1529
01:17:05,640 --> 01:17:09,479
Speaker 1: SCRIMMAGE i Think michigan's gonna play a quarter. Asleep biggest

1530
01:17:09,520 --> 01:17:12,840
Speaker 1: win a program, history biggest winning Botdog jim's, career congratulations to.

1531
01:17:12,920 --> 01:17:14,800
Speaker 1: Him but now you've got to get this team up

1532
01:17:14,840 --> 01:17:17,759
Speaker 1: for An iowa team that can make you fall asleep

1533
01:17:17,840 --> 01:17:20,360
Speaker 1: and then score a defensive. Touchdown iowa can do that to.

1534
01:17:20,479 --> 01:17:25,280
Speaker 1: You iowa has the defense to at least stop some third.

1535
01:17:25,360 --> 01:17:30,040
Speaker 1: Downs they can't cause its. Plays, yeah they don't allow explosive.

1536
01:17:30,080 --> 01:17:33,519
Speaker 1: Plays they don't cause any havoc. Either they just kind

1537
01:17:33,560 --> 01:17:37,000
Speaker 1: of good at stopping the. Chains so you, know WHEN

1538
01:17:37,040 --> 01:17:38,559
Speaker 1: i look at, THIS i think this is a snooze

1539
01:17:38,600 --> 01:17:41,040
Speaker 1: fest for a. WHILE i am gonna look at probably

1540
01:17:41,120 --> 01:17:43,439
Speaker 1: a first quarter, under and Then i'm gonna play this

1541
01:17:43,560 --> 01:17:45,840
Speaker 1: live and probably go. OVER i do think they find

1542
01:17:45,880 --> 01:17:47,439
Speaker 1: a way to wake up and get some points on the.

1543
01:17:47,479 --> 01:17:50,320
Speaker 1: BOARD i don't Know, iowa maybe An iowa team total.

1544
01:17:50,400 --> 01:17:52,800
Speaker 1: Under but then again there's that defensive. Play. Again this

1545
01:17:52,880 --> 01:17:54,240
Speaker 1: is gonna be a snooze fest for a while Till

1546
01:17:54,280 --> 01:17:55,360
Speaker 1: michigan realizes where they're.

1547
01:17:55,360 --> 01:17:58,360
Speaker 2: AT i THINK i might talk myself into the UNDERHAR

1548
01:17:58,439 --> 01:18:01,320
Speaker 2: i just don't. Know and Then michigan they don't need

1549
01:18:01,360 --> 01:18:03,439
Speaker 2: to they don't need any style. Points AND i THINK

1550
01:18:03,520 --> 01:18:05,240
Speaker 2: i was gonna come out and go and they are,

1551
01:18:05,360 --> 01:18:08,439
Speaker 2: slow but even slower run, it cun. It they know

1552
01:18:08,520 --> 01:18:09,560
Speaker 2: that they're not gonna be able to throw it.

1553
01:18:09,600 --> 01:18:13,840
Speaker 1: Here but everybody should know doesn't make. Mistakes everybody should

1554
01:18:13,880 --> 01:18:18,519
Speaker 1: know that key number is uh is forty, one, Right so,

1555
01:18:18,920 --> 01:18:20,880
Speaker 1: yeah the biggest key number in this range right here

1556
01:18:21,120 --> 01:18:23,360
Speaker 1: is forty. One so we're underneath that forty four, more

1557
01:18:23,439 --> 01:18:25,439
Speaker 1: but forty one is really. Key so if you're listening

1558
01:18:25,439 --> 01:18:27,680
Speaker 1: to this podcast and it's continuing to move. Down make

1559
01:18:27,720 --> 01:18:29,200
Speaker 1: sure if you're gonna take it, under you get north

1560
01:18:29,240 --> 01:18:31,200
Speaker 1: of forty. One, yeah forty.

1561
01:18:31,240 --> 01:18:35,560
Speaker 2: Three it's not not, immateial all, right that'll do. It

1562
01:18:35,800 --> 01:18:40,200
Speaker 2: ten all ten conference championship games covered as in depth

1563
01:18:40,240 --> 01:18:43,720
Speaker 2: as you will find on any podcast. Anywhere before we

1564
01:18:43,720 --> 01:18:45,439
Speaker 2: get out of, here let's go three and. Out we

1565
01:18:45,520 --> 01:18:47,920
Speaker 2: can do this really. Quickly he goes bared with us

1566
01:18:47,960 --> 01:18:48,439
Speaker 2: for an hour and a.

1567
01:18:48,479 --> 01:18:53,120
Speaker 6: Half let's make it a quick three and.

1568
01:18:53,240 --> 01:18:58,519
Speaker 2: Out let's first, Out, Cal. Usc i'll make it, Simple.

1569
01:18:59,360 --> 01:19:01,800
Speaker 2: CAL i throw it a moneyline parlay With. MICHIGAN i

1570
01:19:01,880 --> 01:19:04,720
Speaker 2: think it's pretty. SAFE i don't THINK usc cares about this.

1571
01:19:04,840 --> 01:19:08,439
Speaker 2: GAME i THINK cal does for this. RIVALRY i Think. Cal,

1572
01:19:09,240 --> 01:19:11,400
Speaker 2: look their pass defense has been a lot better than

1573
01:19:11,439 --> 01:19:13,560
Speaker 2: the run, defense WHICH i think matches up. Well THE

1574
01:19:13,640 --> 01:19:16,760
Speaker 2: ufc defense is. DONE i, MEAN i don't know what's

1575
01:19:16,760 --> 01:19:19,240
Speaker 2: wrong with this, unit BUT i think that this is

1576
01:19:19,280 --> 01:19:21,680
Speaker 2: like a bowl game or one team doesn't. CARE i

1577
01:19:21,800 --> 01:19:23,920
Speaker 2: Think cal gets it. Done throw them in the money

1578
01:19:23,920 --> 01:19:26,120
Speaker 2: on partlay one, sentence agree or. Disagree.

1579
01:19:26,680 --> 01:19:29,760
Speaker 1: Agree none of these players for The trojans will be

1580
01:19:29,800 --> 01:19:32,760
Speaker 1: playing For Lincoln. Riley why would they? Care all?

1581
01:19:32,800 --> 01:19:35,960
Speaker 2: Right second, down let's talk. HEDGING a couple of people have. Questions,

1582
01:19:36,000 --> 01:19:38,280
Speaker 2: Look i'll repeat this we talked about another. Podcast it

1583
01:19:38,360 --> 01:19:40,639
Speaker 2: comes down to your own personal risk, conversion your own

1584
01:19:40,640 --> 01:19:44,960
Speaker 2: personal financial, situation your own motive for placing the. Bet

1585
01:19:45,040 --> 01:19:47,760
Speaker 2: did you place the bet originally saying it's just a

1586
01:19:47,840 --> 01:19:50,200
Speaker 2: long shot and IF i hit it great or did you,

1587
01:19:50,240 --> 01:19:51,760
Speaker 2: say all, Right i'm gonna get in the position the

1588
01:19:51,840 --> 01:19:53,479
Speaker 2: heads just if it goes to the conference hips Get

1589
01:19:53,640 --> 01:19:54,960
Speaker 2: you also have to take into a caun do you

1590
01:19:55,080 --> 01:19:57,479
Speaker 2: like the matchup or. Not do you think they're gonna

1591
01:19:57,520 --> 01:20:00,880
Speaker 2: lose now you've adjusted your expectations after or you've already placed.

1592
01:20:00,920 --> 01:20:03,439
Speaker 2: It you also could, say all, right MAYBE i can

1593
01:20:03,479 --> 01:20:06,080
Speaker 2: get a middle. Here, right that's important, too something with

1594
01:20:06,160 --> 01:20:08,400
Speaker 2: Like Kent. State now it's three and a, HALF i

1595
01:20:08,520 --> 01:20:12,160
Speaker 2: might consider just betting WHAT i have WHAT i did

1596
01:20:12,200 --> 01:20:15,000
Speaker 2: on my initial. Stake is it life changing money for?

1597
01:20:15,120 --> 01:20:15,160
Speaker 3: You?

1598
01:20:15,479 --> 01:20:17,679
Speaker 2: Right if it, is then you might want to hedge.

1599
01:20:17,680 --> 01:20:19,840
Speaker 2: It if it's just it's not gonna make a huge,

1600
01:20:19,840 --> 01:20:21,639
Speaker 2: difference let it. Go most of the, time you're better

1601
01:20:21,680 --> 01:20:25,240
Speaker 2: off just letting your future. Go there's also the live market, option,

1602
01:20:25,400 --> 01:20:27,680
Speaker 2: right you can maybe get a better number live it's

1603
01:20:27,800 --> 01:20:29,479
Speaker 2: riskier because you might not get. It you might be

1604
01:20:29,560 --> 01:20:32,360
Speaker 2: down two touchdowns right, away but that's another option. Away

1605
01:20:32,439 --> 01:20:34,559
Speaker 2: maybe the amount you wanted the, bet you put half

1606
01:20:34,640 --> 01:20:36,760
Speaker 2: in pregame and you wait to see what happens live

1607
01:20:37,920 --> 01:20:40,040
Speaker 2: really comes down to your own personal. PREFERENCE i can't

1608
01:20:40,080 --> 01:20:43,280
Speaker 2: answer the hedge questions for you when you, say, LOOK

1609
01:20:43,320 --> 01:20:46,880
Speaker 2: i have, this what SHOULD i? Hedge national title hedge?

1610
01:20:47,160 --> 01:20:48,720
Speaker 2: Questions i'll try to get to them On, Twitter but

1611
01:20:49,240 --> 01:20:51,599
Speaker 2: those are really tough right now because there's the, committee

1612
01:20:51,840 --> 01:20:54,800
Speaker 2: you don't really know what is going to, happen And

1613
01:20:55,120 --> 01:20:57,280
Speaker 2: georgia is going to be huge favorites over some of these.

1614
01:20:57,320 --> 01:21:01,320
Speaker 2: Teams it becomes very difficult to. Hedge if you can't

1615
01:21:01,400 --> 01:21:04,920
Speaker 2: hedge A since The future this weekend and then start

1616
01:21:05,000 --> 01:21:07,439
Speaker 2: you worry about that next. Weekend you didn't bet At

1617
01:21:07,439 --> 01:21:10,000
Speaker 2: since The future because you wanted to hedge Against houston

1618
01:21:10,200 --> 01:21:13,200
Speaker 2: at home In nipper in the conference championship.

1619
01:21:13,200 --> 01:21:15,760
Speaker 1: Game if you take a National championship, future you are

1620
01:21:15,840 --> 01:21:18,000
Speaker 1: saying to, yourself this team will be in the semi.

1621
01:21:18,080 --> 01:21:19,800
Speaker 1: FINALS i think that's important for everybody to.

1622
01:21:19,880 --> 01:21:23,080
Speaker 2: Know a lot of, times if you're a recreational better

1623
01:21:23,160 --> 01:21:26,360
Speaker 2: let it. Go let it, Go, yeah third, Down let's

1624
01:21:26,400 --> 01:21:28,439
Speaker 2: go with our favorite pat of the. Weekend we talked

1625
01:21:28,439 --> 01:21:30,080
Speaker 2: about every, game so we can just do one sentence.

1626
01:21:30,120 --> 01:21:32,120
Speaker 2: Here i'll let you lead off where you.

1627
01:21:32,200 --> 01:21:37,360
Speaker 1: Going Western kentucky is not being properly recognized by the odds.

1628
01:21:37,400 --> 01:21:39,479
Speaker 1: Makers they open this up at a, pick it's flown

1629
01:21:39,520 --> 01:21:42,000
Speaker 1: out to three and a. Half there's more money coming into.

1630
01:21:42,080 --> 01:21:44,760
Speaker 1: It THE utsa secondary is one of the worst in

1631
01:21:44,840 --> 01:21:47,519
Speaker 1: the nation against the. Pass this team is exhausted and.

1632
01:21:47,720 --> 01:21:52,360
Speaker 1: Tired sincere McCormick has created one mistackle in the last

1633
01:21:52,400 --> 01:21:55,920
Speaker 1: three games after making thirty nine this. Season this is

1634
01:21:56,040 --> 01:21:58,760
Speaker 1: a tired. Roster it got a little lucky with the

1635
01:21:58,800 --> 01:22:00,559
Speaker 1: field goal kicking when they went up and Beat Western,

1636
01:22:00,640 --> 01:22:03,639
Speaker 1: kentucky a Different Western kentucky team that is now playing.

1637
01:22:03,720 --> 01:22:06,400
Speaker 1: Defense they have not allowed more than twenty one points

1638
01:22:06,640 --> 01:22:10,000
Speaker 1: since that loss TO. Utsa Western KENTUCKY i still think

1639
01:22:10,120 --> 01:22:13,559
Speaker 1: is completely undervalued on this. Board THE utsa secondary cannot

1640
01:22:13,600 --> 01:22:16,800
Speaker 1: deal With Bailey. Zappi this is something we identified when

1641
01:22:16,800 --> 01:22:20,759
Speaker 1: The Houston baptist head coach offensive coordinator Got Bailey zappi

1642
01:22:20,880 --> 01:22:23,000
Speaker 1: and some other players and Said we're coming To Western

1643
01:22:23,080 --> 01:22:26,439
Speaker 1: kentucky to dominate Conference. Usa we kept it in our

1644
01:22:26,479 --> 01:22:28,639
Speaker 1: back pocket and didn't talk about it at all until

1645
01:22:28,640 --> 01:22:31,040
Speaker 1: odds got put up In, may and then we wailed on.

1646
01:22:31,160 --> 01:22:32,519
Speaker 1: It put in The action app one of the first

1647
01:22:32,560 --> 01:22:34,800
Speaker 1: things that ever went In Western kentucky is going to

1648
01:22:34,880 --> 01:22:37,599
Speaker 1: dominate this. Game they're going to BEAT, Utsa they're going

1649
01:22:37,640 --> 01:22:40,080
Speaker 1: to cash all of our future, tickets And Bailey zappi

1650
01:22:40,200 --> 01:22:43,000
Speaker 1: is going in as probably the greatest gambling god we've

1651
01:22:43,040 --> 01:22:45,200
Speaker 1: ever had in the history of this. Podcast since we

1652
01:22:45,280 --> 01:22:48,400
Speaker 1: were To jen And juice in twenty, SEVENTEEN i wanted

1653
01:22:48,479 --> 01:22:51,320
Speaker 1: to be the one to pass along this information will.

1654
01:22:51,439 --> 01:22:58,519
Speaker 2: Win we'll get it done. Well clearly when the Fourth

1655
01:22:58,680 --> 01:23:03,439
Speaker 2: Annual Gambling heisman tever that we will award after the,

1656
01:23:03,560 --> 01:23:07,560
Speaker 2: Season Zapi, Hour i'm gonna be tweeting that sign And

1657
01:23:07,720 --> 01:23:11,040
Speaker 2: zappie All. Saturday froan F Ever Bett houston since he

1658
01:23:11,720 --> 01:23:15,479
Speaker 2: UNDER i just don't see How houston consistently moves the

1659
01:23:15,600 --> 01:23:19,599
Speaker 2: ball against this elite since his, secondary which arguably has

1660
01:23:19,680 --> 01:23:22,320
Speaker 2: the top corner duo in all of college. FOOTBALL i

1661
01:23:22,439 --> 01:23:26,320
Speaker 2: think they started to put a plan in place to

1662
01:23:26,520 --> 01:23:29,719
Speaker 2: maybe Move Sauce gardner Or Kobe bryant to the. Slot

1663
01:23:29,800 --> 01:23:32,040
Speaker 2: If dell is cooking. There that's the only Way. Houston,

1664
01:23:32,280 --> 01:23:34,040
Speaker 2: well they can't run the, ball and now you're trying

1665
01:23:34,040 --> 01:23:36,800
Speaker 2: to throw on an elite. SECONDARY i don't see. It

1666
01:23:36,880 --> 01:23:40,400
Speaker 2: these are two slower. Teams also another point to, raise

1667
01:23:40,640 --> 01:23:45,120
Speaker 2: since he very good on punts and. Kickoffs that's important

1668
01:23:45,120 --> 01:23:48,679
Speaker 2: against arguably the best return man in the country who's

1669
01:23:48,720 --> 01:23:52,080
Speaker 2: a huge weapon For houston in most. WEEKS i do

1670
01:23:52,240 --> 01:23:55,400
Speaker 2: believe in The houston. DEFENSE i just don't believe in their.

1671
01:23:55,439 --> 01:23:59,439
Speaker 2: Offense they face horrendous defenses this. Year this is a

1672
01:23:59,479 --> 01:24:03,160
Speaker 2: big step up in CLASS i think since he Suffocates

1673
01:24:03,200 --> 01:24:06,280
Speaker 2: houston here And houston's defense doesn't let it get two

1674
01:24:06,360 --> 01:24:09,800
Speaker 2: out of. Hand give me the under, there all, right

1675
01:24:10,240 --> 01:24:13,240
Speaker 2: that'll do it for. Us thank you for, Listening, Dollan

1676
01:24:13,280 --> 01:24:15,160
Speaker 2: thanks as always for joining. Me make sure you tune

1677
01:24:15,200 --> 01:24:19,080
Speaker 2: in To Big bets On Campus. Live we'll cover four

1678
01:24:19,320 --> 01:24:24,679
Speaker 2: of The marquee games On saturday, morning ten thirty Am

1679
01:24:24,760 --> 01:24:27,400
Speaker 2: Eastern live On. Twitter we'll both tweet out the. Link

1680
01:24:27,960 --> 01:24:31,120
Speaker 2: make sure you, subscribe, unsubscribed leave a. Review make sure

1681
01:24:31,120 --> 01:24:33,720
Speaker 2: you subscribe, again by the, way leave a, review five star.

1682
01:24:33,800 --> 01:24:37,240
Speaker 2: Review i'll probably do giveaways next. Week we will have

1683
01:24:37,360 --> 01:24:40,280
Speaker 2: a recap episode this weekend and we'll be probably With brett.

1684
01:24:40,360 --> 01:24:43,200
Speaker 2: McMurphy we'll be talking bowl reveals and all that good

1685
01:24:43,280 --> 01:24:46,599
Speaker 2: stuff college, football semifinal. Playoffs we'll probably have lines out

1686
01:24:46,600 --> 01:24:49,320
Speaker 2: we'll record later in the, day probably do some, Giveaways

1687
01:24:49,360 --> 01:24:51,080
Speaker 2: so make sure you tune into That monday Morning Big

1688
01:24:51,160 --> 01:24:54,080
Speaker 2: bets On campus. Podcast fore we listen to your. Podcast

1689
01:24:54,479 --> 01:24:56,800
Speaker 2: thanks again for all your. Support let's have a big

1690
01:24:56,840 --> 01:24:59,120
Speaker 2: weekend and then a huge bowl. Season this is what

1691
01:24:59,240 --> 01:25:01,960
Speaker 2: we lived. For it's time for us to go try

1692
01:25:01,960 --> 01:25:03,760
Speaker 2: to find some less minu of. Winners we'll catch your

1693
01:25:03,840 --> 01:25:04,200
Speaker 2: laters in.

1694
01:25:04,280 --> 01:25:05,320
Speaker 1: Tears he's. Out